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Area Forecast Discussion

387
FXUS62 KCHS 262233
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
633 PM EDT TUE AUG 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HURRICANE CRISTOBAL WILL TRACK NORTH WELL OFF THE SOUTHEAST U.S.
COAST THROUGH MID WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION FROM
THE NORTH. ONCE CRISTOBAL DEPARTS BY LATE WEEK...HIGH PRESSURE
WILL SETTLE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND WILL PREVAIL INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
EARLY TUESDAY EVENING...ADJUSTED FORECASTS TO ACCOUNT FOR DIURNAL
CLOUDS ESPECIALLY IN EVIDENCE OVER INLAND COUNTIES. OTHERWISE...
HOURLY FORECAST PARAMETERS REQUIRED ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS
TONIGHT.

AFTER SUNSET...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT WITH COOL TEMPS DUE TO
PERSISTENT NNE FLOW BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH AND
OFFSHORE HURRICANE CRISTOBAL. A GENTLE BREEZE WILL LIKELY CONTINUE
OVERNIGHT... KEEPING THE BOUNDARY LAYER MIXED. NEVERTHELESS...
DESPITE LESS THAN OPTIMAL RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS THE COLD
ADVECTION WILL DROP TEMPS INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S AT MOST
LOCATIONS INLAND FROM THE BEACHES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BECOME CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHEAST
STATES MID TO LATE WEEK. HURRICANE CRISTOBAL WILL STEADILY SHIFT
NORTH ALONG ITS PERIPHERY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...REMAINING WELL
AWAY FROM THE EAST COAST. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES
REGION WILL THEN GRADUALLY MOVE TOWARD THE NEW ENGLAND
STATES...FOLLOWED BY A TRANSITION/REDEVELOPMENT OF ATLANTIC HIGH
PRESSURE FRIDAY. THIS DEEP LAYER RIDGING REGIME WILL SUPPORT AN
UNSEASONABLY DRY PERIOD...AS STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND LOW MOISTURE
PROFILES LIMIT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. HAVE MAINTAINED A DRY
FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. WILL THEN INTRODUCE JUST
ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FOR MAINLY SOUTHEAST GEORGIA BY
FRIDAY...DUE TO A SLIGHT INCREASE IN MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH. HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S ON WEDNESDAY WILL BE RIGHT
AT SEASONAL NORMALS...THEN EXPECT A GRADUAL WARMING TREND INTO THE
LOW TO MID 90S FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL
ACTUALLY BE A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL AS A RESULT OF CLEAR SKIES
AND LIGHT WINDS AT NIGHT...RANGING GENERALLY FROM THE MID TO UPPER
60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC
PATTERN THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST WHILE ATLANTIC HIGH
PRESSURE PREVAILS AT THE SURFACE. A SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL ALLOW
SUFFICIENT MOISTURE TO ADVECT INTO THE REGION TO SUPPORT A MORE
TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN...WITH A CHANCE OF MAINLY AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED EACH DAY. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE NEAR TO PERHAPS SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR THROUGH WED.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
ELEVATED WINDS/SEAS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT. HOWEVER...WINDS ARE NO
LONGER GUSTING TO 25 KT AND SEAS HAVE SUBSIDED BELOW 6 FT WITHIN
NEARSHORE WATERS...THUS SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WITHIN 20 NM OF
THE COAST HAVE BEEN DISCONTINUED. HERE...NE WINDS 15-20 KT AND
SEAS 3-5 FT WILL PREVAIL TONIGHT. ACROSS AMZ374...SCA WINDS/SEAS
WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...SWELLS ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY SUBSIDE
ON WEDNESDAY...AS CRISTOBAL LIFTS NORTH WELL OFF THE CAROLINA COAST
AND RAPIDLY DEPARTS TO THE NORTHEAST THURSDAY. ALTHOUGH WINDS WILL
BE WELL BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA BY WEDNESDAY...ELEVATED
SEAS WILL BE SLOWER TO SUBSIDE. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL THUS
REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE OUTER GEORGIA WATERS THROUGH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL LATE WEEK THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...ALLOWING A SOUTHERLY FLOW TO BECOME ESTABLISHED...WITH
WINDS GENERALLY 15 KT OR LESS AND SEAS GENERALLY 2 TO 4 FT.

RIP CURRENTS...A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS WILL CONTINUE INTO
WEDNESDAY AS A RESULT OF SOME ASTRONOMICAL INFLUENCES AND LINGERING
2 TO 3 FT 10 SECOND SWELLS BEHIND CRISTOBAL.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
ISSUED A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FOR CHARLESTON COUNTY FOR THE MID-
EVE HIGH TIDE. WATCHING THE LAST FEW CYCLES IT LOOKS LIKE IT COULD
BARELY REACH ADVISORY CRITERIA OF 7.0 FT MLLW. THE ANOMALIES ARE
COMING DOWN AND WINDS RELAXING SO NO ISSUES BEYOND TONIGHT ARE
EXPECTED.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR SCZ050.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR AMZ374.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...JRL/SPR
SHORT TERM...WMS
LONG TERM...JAQ
AVIATION...JRL/SPR/WMS
MARINE...JAQ/JRL/SPR/WMS
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...JRL






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