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Area Forecast Discussion

483
FXUS62 KCHS 291441
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
1041 AM EDT MON JUN 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL DISSIPATE OVER THE REGION BY TONIGHT.
OTHERWISE...ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESIDE ACROSS THE AREA
WHILE A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE PERSISTS INLAND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LATE MONDAY MORNING...ONGOING FORECASTS REMAINED ON TRACK AND
REQUIRED ONLY MINOR HOURLY ADJUSTMENTS.

AS DEPICTED BY THE 12Z KCHS SOUNDING AND BY SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS...A COLD FRONT PUSHED DRIER/MORE STABLE INTO THE
REGION. WHILE THIS FRONT WILL WEAKEN/DISSIPATE WITH TIME THIS
AFTERNOON...A MARKED CHANGE IN AIR MASS WILL REMAIN EVIDENT
THROUGH THE DAY. WHILE TEMPERATURES WILL RISE TO NEAR NORMAL HIGHS
IN THE 89-93F RANGE... THE DEEPENING MIXED LAYER WILL TAP INTO THE
DRY AIR SAMPLED BY THE SOUNDING. AS A RESULT...LATE MORNING
DEWPOINTS INTO THE 60S/70S WILL DROP INTO THE 50S/60S AT MOST
LOCALES INLAND FROM THE SEA BREEZE. THESE CONDITIONS WILL CONTRAST
WITH HOT/HUMID CONDITIONS WHICH HAVE PREVAILED OVER THE PAST
COUPLE OF WEEKS. AS THE SEA BREEZE PUSHES ONSHORE THIS
AFTERNOON...DEWPOINTS NEAR THE COAST WILL INCREASE INTO THE
70S...MORE TYPICAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

AREA 12Z SOUNDINGS...PARTICULARLY THE DRY/CAPPED ENVIRONMENT
SAMPLED AT KCHS...A N/NW TO S/SE GRADIENT OF LOW-LEVEL
INSTABILITY AND HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE STRONGLY SUGGESTS THAT
ANY ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS...IF ANY...WILL REMAIN LIMITED
TO AREAS WELL SOUTH OF I-16.

OTHERWISE...HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS EMBEDDED WITHIN SW FLOW ALOFT WILL
STREAM ACROSS THE REGION. THICKEST CLOUDS OVER SOUTHERN COUNTIES
COULD HOLD TEMPS DOWN A DEGREE OR TWO.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE FRONT WILL WASH OUT BY TONIGHT WITH SW SYNOPTIC FLOW ACROSS THE
REGION AS THE BERMUDA HIGH IS REALLY ANCHORED OUT THERE. DRY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES
AND LOWS IN THE MID/UPPER 60S WELL INLAND TO THE LOWER/MID 70S
ALONG THE COAST.

THE DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY LOSE ITS INFLUENCE ON TUESDAY
AS SW LOW-LEVEL FLOW INCREASES DURING THE DAY. SURFACE DEWPOINTS
WILL GRADUALLY RISE FROM SW TO NE. INSTABILITY WILL BE RATHER WEAK
UNTIL LATE IN THE DAY WITH THE STRONGEST BUOYANCY ACROSS SE GA WHERE
DEWPOINTS WILL BE HIGHER. ONLY ISOLATED CONVECTION ANTICIPATED...
MAINLY ACROSS THE SW AREAS.

THE UPPER TROUGH WILL SLOWLY DIG SOUTH WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...
RESULTING IN LOWERING UPPER HEIGHTS AND A PIEDMONT SURFACE TROUGH.
LESS MID-LEVEL CAPPING AND BETTER INSTABILITY WILL ALLOW FOR GREATER
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BOTH DAYS. HIGHS WILL BE IN
THE LOWER 90S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE UPPER RIDGE WILL REESTABLISH ITSELF OVER THE SOUTHEAST UNITED
STATES LATE WEEK THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. AS MID-LEVELS WARM... A
STRONGER CAP WILL MAKE IT MORE DIFFICULT FOR CONVECTION TO DEVELOP.
THUS...WE MAINLY HAVE ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
FORECAST AND HIGH TEMPS IN THE MID 90S.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR THROUGH TONIGHT. VERY LOW PROBABILITY FOR BRIEF FLIGHT
RESTRICTIONS IN LOWER CEILINGS AND/OR REDUCED VISIBILITY AT KSAV
AROUND DAYBREAK TUESDAY.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...BRIEF FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN
AFTERNOON SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
OFFSHORE WINDS THROUGH MIDDAY WILL TIP BACK S/SW THIS AFTERNOON
AS THE SEA BREEZE DEVELOPS. SEAS WILL AVERAGE 1-3 FT TODAY. EXPECT
A MODEST S/SW SURGE LATER THIS AFTERNOON ALONG THE UPPER SOUTH
CAROLINA COAST AND ACROSS THE WATERS TONIGHT. WINDS SHOULD
INCREASE TO 15-20 KT WITH SEAS 2 TO 4 FT...HIGHEST OFFSHORE.

ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL GENERALLY DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN
OVER THE COASTAL WATERS AS A PIEDMONT TROUGH BECOMES ESTABLISHED
INLAND. SEA BREEZE CIRCULATIONS AND NOCTURNAL LOW LEVEL JETTING WILL
ALLOW SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS TO PEAK 15-20 KT AT TIMES. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES ARE NOT ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE PERIOD. SEAS WILL BE 2-4
FEET ON AVERAGE.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...SPR
SHORT TERM...JRL
LONG TERM...JRL
AVIATION...SPR
MARINE...JRL/SPR



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