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Area Forecast Discussion

543
FXUS62 KCHS 240739
AFDCHS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston SC
339 AM EDT WED AUG 24 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will prevail into this weekend. A surface trough will
push into the region by late this weekend and will persist through
the middle of next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
An expansive upper ridge will persist while slightly drier/cooler
surface high pressure off the Northeast coast will continue to
extend southwest into the area. Other than a few stray showers or
tstms over the outer GA coastal waters, dry weather anticipated
through tonight. Highs will top out in the lower 90s inland while
a robust afternoon sea breeze limits temps to no higher than the
upper 80s closer to the coast. Mostly clear skies, mid/upper 60s
dewpoints and diminishing winds tonight will produce rather
unseasonable low temps in the upper 60s inland, with lower 70s
coastal.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Thursday through Friday: Deep layered high pressure will remain in
place over the region. Isolated showers could push onshore into SE
GA coastal counties south of Tybee Island, especially Thursday
afternoon. Otherwise, subsidence will produce a dry/capped
environment, and most areas will remain rain-free. High temps in
the upper 80s/lower 90s Thursday will warm into the lower/mid 90s
away from the coast Friday. Maximum heat index values should remain
below 100F across the region Thursday, and heat index values around
100F should remain confined to far southern/inland counties Friday.
Expect low temps in the lower/mid 70s inland and 75-80F on the
beaches both nights.

Saturday: The center of the sprawling eastern CONUS ridge will shift
slightly east, and the surface high will weaken to some degree. This
could open the door for an increasingly moist onshore flow,
especially across southern counties/along and south of I-16 where
slight chance pops have been introduced into forecasts. Otherwise,
high temps will range from the upper 80s near the coast to the
lower/mid 90s inland. Increasing dewpoints will translate to
expanding coverage of heat index values around 100F.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
The eastern CONUS upper ridge and associated surface high are
expected to weaken this period. Details regarding this process
differ, but a reasonable scenario includes general weakening of
subsidence/capping aloft and a trend toward surface troughing.
This should, in turn, support an increasing chance of
showers/thunderstorms as onshore flow/moisture transport persist.
Latest forecasts include a transition from slight chance POPs
north/chance POPS south Sunday-Monday to greater coverage of chance
POPS Tuesday-Wednesday, especially during the daytime hours.
Meanwhile, odds favor slightly above normal temperatures through
much of the period.

Guidance generally agrees that a tropical cyclone could be
approaching south FL by later this weekend. However, solutions
diverge greatly thereafter, so this feature does not directly
factor into our forecasts through the middle of next week.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR will prevail through 06Z Thu.

Extended Aviation Outlook: VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
High pressure will continue to build over the waters from the
northeast, maintaining a modest northeast flow through tonight.
Conditions expected to remain below Small Craft Advisory levels
though coastal areas may see some 20 kt gusts with a robust
afternoon sea breeze.

Thursday through Monday: High pressure will dominate the coastal
waters Thursday through Saturday, then the high will weaken and will
give way to a trough of low pressure which will advance into or
develop over the waters this weekend. With occasional/minor
variations, east/northeast winds should average 10-15 kt with gusts
15 to 20 kt through this period. Through late week, combined seas
will average 2-4 feet, although seas as high as 5 feet will
occasionally push into the outer GA waters. Then, the long
fetch/duration onshore flow and the possible arrival of larger, long
period swell emanating from TC Gaston will increase the chance for
Small Craft Advisory conditions beyond 20 nm this weekend into
early next week.

Rip currents: Onshore winds and a small long period swell will
persist this week, perhaps elevating the risk of rip currents by
late week. There is a chance that a larger, long period swell
created by TC Gaston swell could reach the beaches as early as this
weekend. If this occurs, the chance for rip currents will increase
significantly this weekend into next week.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
A long duration of E/NE winds will support elevated high tides
through at least this weekend. Extratropical surge guidance has
consistently held tides at least one-half foot below Coastal Flood
Advisory levels through the period. However, there remains a low
probability that afternoon high tide levels could slightly exceed
forecasts and approach Coastal Flood Advisory thresholds especially
along the SC coast.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
The Metter NOAA Weather Radio All Hazards station, WWH-25 will be
off the air until further notice. The telephone company is
investigating the problem.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
SC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...JRL
SHORT TERM...SPR
LONG TERM...SPR
AVIATION...JRL/SPR
MARINE...JRL/SPR
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
EQUIPMENT...



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