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Area Forecast Discussion

691
FXUS62 KCHS 102040
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
340 PM EST WED FEB 10 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST FROM THE LOWER GULF COAST REGION THROUGH
TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE ON THURSDAY WILL GIVE WAY TO A WEAK AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT. BEHIND THIS SYSTEM AN
ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION ON SATURDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL THEN REMAIN IN CONTROL UNTIL EARLY NEXT WEEK WHEN
THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD FROM THE WEST WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. A
DECENT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE AREA INTO EARLY
EVENING BEFORE DIMINISHING FROM THE SOUTHWEST. LOW TEMPERATURES
SHOULD DROP INTO THE MID 20S FOR MOST LOCALES WITH EVEN IMMEDIATE COASTAL
AREAS SEEING FREEZING TEMPERATURES. WIND CHILLS WILL LIKELY BOTTOM
OUT IN THE UPPER TEENS TOWARD THE MIDLANDS/CSRA...SLIGHTLY WARMER
ELSEWHERE. SUCH VALUES WILL BE ABOVE ADVISORY LEVELS.

LAKE WINDS...CONDITIONS FAVOR A CONTINUATION OF THE LAKE WIND
ADVISORY ON LAKE MOULTRIE THROUGH THIS EVENING DUE TO WIND GUSTS
AROUND 25 KT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ON THURSDAY THE UPPER LONGWAVE FLATTENS OUT WITH LOW-LEVEL
THICKNESSES INCREASING ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH. A WEAK SURFACE
FRONT WILL DROP TOWARD THE AREA IN THE AFTERNOON...BRINGING A
SLIGHT INCREASE IN STRATOCUMULUS LATE IN THE DAY. OTHERWISE MOST
AREAS WILL SEE PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES DURING THE DAY WITH
REBOUNDING TEMPS IN THE LOW/MID 50S.

THURSDAY NIGHT A CHANNELED VORT WILL DROP INTO THE CAROLINAS AND
SPUR A WEAK SURFACE WAVE TO DEVELOP OFF THE SC COAST ALONG THE
TRAVERSING FRONT. SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASING SKY COVER OVER
SOUTHEAST GA WILL KEEP LOW TEMPS IN THE LOWER 40S THOUGH COLD
ADVECTION IN NORTHERN AREAS WILL DROP TEMPS INTO THE MIDDLE 30S.
THE ONLY APPRECIABLE RAIN CHANCES WILL BE OVER THE COASTAL WATERS
AND FAR EASTERN LAND AREAS WHERE THERE MAY BE ENOUGH MOISTURE AND
LIFT ALONG THE FRONT TO PRODUCE PATCHY LIGHT RAIN.

THE FRONT WILL DISSIPATE OVER THE AREA ON FRIDAY WHILE A
RELATIVELY ZONAL FLOW PERSISTS ALOFT. MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL
START THE DAY BUT WE EXPECT DECREASING CLOUDINESS DURING THE
AFTERNOON. SLIGHT WARM ADVECTION OVER SOUTHEAST GA AND SOME LATE
AFTERNOON SUN SHOULD PRODUCE HIGH TEMPS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S.
ELSEWHERE THE HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 50S.

AN EXPANSIVE 1044 MB HIGH WILL BUILD FROM CANADA INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS SATURDAY MORNING...PUSHING AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
LOCAL FORECAST AREA. AFTERNOON COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL KEEP
SATURDAY HIGH TEMPS IN THE UPPER 40S NORTH TO MIDDLE 50S SOUTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MODEL AGREEMENT IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD IS REASONABLY GOOD AND
THE FORECAST IS PRETTY QUIET UNTIL LATE IN THE PERIOD. THINGS
START OFF SATURDAY NIGHT WITH SOME OF THE COLDEST AIR OF THE
SEASON BEHIND THE ARCTIC COLD FRONT. LOWS WILL DIP INTO THE LOW TO
MID 20S...AND ELEVATED OVERNIGHT WINDS WILL RESULT IN WIND CHILLS
FALLING INTO THE LOW TO MID TEENS FOR MUCH OF THE AREA SUNDAY
MORNING. INCLUDED MENTION OF POSSIBLE WIND CHILL ADVISORY IN THE
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

THEREAFTER...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE THE PRIMARY WEATHER FEATURE
ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND. THE NEXT
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND NOTEWORTHY RAINFALL CHANCES WILL IMPACT
THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A SHORTWAVE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST
AND PUSHES A DEVELOPING SYSTEM THROUGH THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS
LATE MONDAY. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE WELL BELOW NORMAL ON
SUNDAY...WITH A MODERATING TREND TO NEAR NORMAL THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

LAKE WINDS...ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONG WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER
LAKE MOULTRIE LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. A LAKE WIND ADVISORY
COULD EVENTUALLY BE NEEDED.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR. GUSTY WEST WINDS ANTICIPATED THROUGH ABOUT 23Z...TOPPING OUT
NEAR 30 KT AT TIMES.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CEILINGS IS
POSSIBLE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH...OTHERWISE VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT...A DECREASE IN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS FROM THE SOUTHWEST WILL TRANSLATE TO SLOWLY IMPROVING
MARINE CONDITIONS. WE RECENTLY CANCELLED THE GALE WARNING BEYOND
20 NM ALTHOUGH CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW MARGINAL GALE FORCE GUSTS
NEAR 35 KT THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE NIGHT...MAINLY AROUND 20
NM OFFSHORE AND BEYOND. SEAS WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE AS WELL...DROPPING
BELOW 6 FT TOWARD THE GULF STREAM LATE. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES
WILL BE IN EFFECT FOR ALL WATERS THROUGH THE NIGHT...EXCEPT FOR
CHARLESTON HARBOR WHERE WINDS WILL SUBSIDE SOONER.

THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...RELATIVELY QUIET CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. A WEAK COASTAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
MOVING NORTHEAST ALONG THE COASTLINE FRIDAY MAY PRODUCE A BRIEF
PERIOD OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS AND/OR SEAS OVER THE OFFSHORE
GA WATERS. OTHERWISE THE NEXT MAIN SURGE WILL BE LATE SATURDAY
INTO SUNDAY MORNING BEHIND AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT. WINDS/SEAS WILL
INCREASE DRASTICALLY BEHIND THE FRONT AND SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES
WILL UNDOUBTEDLY BE NECESSARY FOR PORTIONS OF THE WATERS.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
A STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW WILL PRODUCE NEAR BLOW OUT TIDES AROUND
EACH LOW TIDE CYCLE THROUGH TONIGHT...REACHING NEAR -1.0 FEET
MEAN LOWER LOW WATER AT CHARLESTON AND -1.5 FEET MEAN LOWER LOW
WATER AT FORT PULASKI.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR SCZ045.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST THURSDAY FOR AMZ350-352-
     354-374.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR AMZ330.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...RJB
SHORT TERM...JRL
LONG TERM...BSH
AVIATION...JRL/RJB
MARINE...JRL/RJB
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...



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