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Area Forecast Discussion

668
FXUS62 KCHS 251952
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
352 PM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST TO THE EAST MAINTAINING A MOIST LOW-
LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW. MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED HOWEVER AFTER
ANY LINGERING EARLY SHOWERS END ACROSS MOSTLY SOUTHEAST GEORGIA.
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES SHOULD PREVAIL...ESPECIALLY LATE AS LOW CLOUDS
THICKEN. COULD EVEN SEE A LITTLE LIGHT FOG INLAND LATE...MAINLY
SHALLOW. ABOVE NORMAL LOW TEMPS EXPECTED DUE TO THE CLOUDS AND
LIGHT ONSHORE BREEZE WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER
70S...GENERALLY WARMEST AT THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
TUESDAY...THE WEATHER PATTERN WILL REMAIN NEARLY UNCHANGED...WITH
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE ATLANTIC AND UPPER RIDGE
SITTING JUST EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. NVA ALOFT WILL KEEP RAIN
CHANCES PRETTY LIMITED...WITH FORECAST ONLY FEATURING SLIGHT
CHANCE/LOW END CHANCE FAR INLAND IN THE AFTERNOON WHERE BETTER
MOISTURE RESIDES. SOME MODELS SHOW A FEW SHOWERS MOVING ONSHORE
CHARLESTON COUNTY IN THE MORNING BUT CURRENTLY THINK PROBABILITIES
ARE TOO LOW TO INCLUDE MENTION IN THE FORECAST. HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL BE A COUPLE DEGREES HIGHER THAN NORMAL...MAINLY IN THE UPPER
80S AWAY FROM THE COAST WHERE HIGHS WILL ONLY BE IN THE LOW/MID 80S.
LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 60S/AROUND 70.

WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...THE UPPER RIDGE WILL WEAKEN AS SHORTWAVE
ENERGY APPROACHES THE REGION. AT THE SAME TIME...A WEAK SURFACE
TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP WEST OF THE AREA. INCREASING MOISTURE
AND AID FROM PASSING SHORTWAVES WILL SUPPORT SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCES
FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY INLAND. CONVECTION
WILL DIE OFF AFTER SUNSET. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MID/UPPER 80S...LOWS
IN IN THE MID/UPPER 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
A BROAD UPPER RIDGE REGIME PERSISTS OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES
WHILE ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE SITS OFF THE COAST. FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
WITH THE SURFACE HIGH FARTHER NORTH...SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR WILL BE IN
PLACE WHICH WILL MINIMIZE PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL. SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY AS THE HIGH SHIFTS SOUTH...LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES AND
SLIGHTLY BETTER COVERAGE OF DAYTIME SHOWERS/STORMS EXPECTED. HIGHS
WILL BE IN THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...THOUGH
PROXIMITY TO A TROUGH OF HIGHER MOISTURE COULD BRING BRIEF PERIODS
OF MVFR AT KSAV THROUGH MIDDAY. SCATTERED LOW LEVEL CLOUDS
EXPECTED THIS EVENING POST SEA-BREEZE. MVFR CONDITIONS RETURN
TONIGHT AS THE NOCTURNAL INVERSION AND CONTINUED LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE ADVECTION BELOW BROAD UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING INCREASES LOW-
LEVEL RH. SOME LIGHT GROUND FOG IS POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT AS WELL.
EXPECT MVFR CEILINGS AT KCHS THROUGH SUNRISE...WHILE KSAV WILL SEE
LOWER CEILINGS REMAINING INTO THE MID-MORNING HOURS. CEILINGS WILL
LIFT AND VFR CONDITIONS WILL RETURN TO BOTH KCHS AND KSAV BY LATE
MORNING.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MAINLY VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR BRIEF MVFR CEILINGS LATE MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT...ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL WITH GENERALLY
SOUTHEAST WINDS 10-15 KT. SEAS WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE WITH CONDITIONS
REMAINING BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS.

TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO
PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. ONSHORE FLOW WILL GENERALLY BE 15 KT OR
LESS WITH SEAS 2-4 FEET...HIGHEST IN THE OUTER WATERS.

RIP CURRENTS...MARGINAL SWELLS AND PERSISTENT/ELEVATED/ONSHORE WINDS
WILL CONTINUE TODAY SO WE MAINTAIN A MODERATE RISK FOR ALL
BEACHES FOR THE REST OF THE DAYTIME.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...RJB
SHORT TERM...ECT
LONG TERM...JRL
AVIATION...ECT/RJB
MARINE...ECT/RJB



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