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Area Forecast Discussion

956
FXUS62 KCHS 282043
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
443 PM EDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THE REMNANTS OF A STATIONARY FRONT WILL SLOWLY DISSIPATE EAST AND SE
OF THE AREA THROUGH SATURDAY...AS A WEAK INLAND WEDGE REMAINS IN
PLACE. ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN EXPAND ACROSS THE REGION
EARLY NEXT WEEK. TROPICAL CYCLONE ERIKA COULD IMPACT THE SOUTHEAST
UNITED STATES BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. REFER TO THE LATEST
ADVISORY ON ERIKA ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
THE STATIONARY FRONT HAS NOW MOVED SOUTH OF OUR LAND ZONES...BUT
REMAINS OVER OR NEAR OUR COASTAL WATERS. ISOLATED SHOWER ACTIVITY
WILL REMAIN LARGELY ALONG THE SEA BREEZE IN SOUTHEASTERN SOUTH
CAROLINA THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES
INLAND. CONVECTION FOCUSED ALONG THE REMNANTS OF A STATIONARY
FRONT SOUTH OF THE ALTAMAHA RIVER IN GEORGIA COULD ALSO BRING
SOME RAIN AND THUNDER TO COUNTIES ALONG THE ALTAMAHA THIS
EVENING...BUT THE SEVERE CHANCE IS VERY LOW WITH ANY STORMS THAT
DO COME INTO THE REGION.

HEIGHTS ALOFT WILL DECREASE THROUGH THE PERIOD AS A SHORTWAVE
DEVELOPING OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY SHIFTS CLOSER TO THE EAST
COAST. THIS...COMBINED WITH ENHANCED MOISTURE ALOFT FROM
CONVECTION UPSTREAM...WILL KEEP CLOUDY SKIES IN THE FORECAST THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. HIGH RES MODELS ARE PICKING UP ON A PLUME
OF ENHANCED MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ALONG THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF OUR
GA OFFSHORE WATERS AND THE ALTAMAHA RIVER REGION LATE
TONIGHT...JUSTIFYING THE INTRODUCTION OF CHANCE POPS FOR THE AREA
FROM AROUND 4Z TO SUNRISE SATURDAY.

OVERCAST SKIES WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN NORMAL
FOR THE REGION OVERNIGHT...WITH LOWS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 70S
ALONG THE COAST TO LOWER 70S TO NEAR 70 FOR AREAS FURTHER INLAND.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...A MID/UPPER LOW IN THE NORTHERN
GULF OF MEXICO WILL REMAIN IN PLACE FOR THE START OF THE
WEEKEND...EVENTUALLY WEAKENING AND STARTING TO OPEN UP AS IT LIFTS
NORTH/NE BY SUNDAY. THIS FEATURE WILL BE STEERED WEST/SW OF THE
LOCAL REGION BY A FORMIDABLE SUB-TROPICAL LOW AND MID-LEVEL RIDGE
CENTERED IN THE SW ATLANTIC ALONG ROUGH 30N. AT THE SURFACE WE FIND
THE THE REMAINS OF A STATIONARY FRONT OFF TO THE EAST/SE THAT WILL
CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE...WHILE A WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE INLAND SLOWLY
WEAKENS THROUGH THE PERIOD. WHILE THERE IS DECENT CAPPING AND LESS
MOISTURE OVER FAR NORTHERN ZONES...THERE IS A GOOD INFLUX OF SUB-
TROPICAL AIR ARRIVING WITHIN A DEEP SOUTH/SW FLOW FROM THE GULF.
PWATS WILL SURGE TO 2-2.25 INCHES OVER SOUTHERN ZONES...APPROACHING
2 INCHES CENTRAL AREAS...BUT LIMITED TO 1.5 TO 1.75 INCHES NORTH. AS
A RESULT WE ANTICIPATE A SHARP NORTH-SOUTH GRADIENT IN REGARDS TO
CONVECTIVE RAINS. ALTHOUGH ADJUSTMENTS WILL BE REQUIRED ONCE TRENDS
BECOME APPARENT...WE HAVE SHOWN 60 POPS SOUTH...30-50 POPS CENTRAL
SECTIONS AND 20 POPS NORTH. A SLUGGISH STORM MOTION AND THE
ABUNDANCE OF MOISTURE WILL LEAD TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL...ALTHOUGH
SHOULD THE HEAVIER RAINS OCCUR NEAR HIGH TIDE THE FLOODING RISK
COULD BE WORSE. COVERAGE OF CONVECTION WILL WANE OVER MOST LAND
BASED COUNTIES DURING THE EVENING HOURS...BEFORE THE BEST
FORCING/MOISTURE CONVERGENCE OCCURS OVER THE ATLANTIC AND ON THE
COASTAL COUNTIES OVERNIGHT. TEMPS WILL BE HELD TO THE MID OR UPPER
80S SATURDAY...THEN DROP TO THE LOWER AND MID 70S AT NIGHT.

SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...THE GULF COAST LOW ALOFT WILL HAVE OPENED
INTO A WAVE AND CONTINUES TO HEAD NE NEAR THE SPINE OF THE
APPALACHIANS...ALLOWING FOR A DEEP-LAYERED SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE TO
EXPAND WEST ACROSS THE LOCAL DISTRICT. THIS PATTERN ALSO LOOKS TO
STEER ERIKA ON A MORE WEST/NW TRACK INTO PERHAPS THE GULF OF MEXICO.
EVEN SO A CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF SUB-TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL
CONTINUE TO FEED INTO THE SE FROM BOTH THE ATLANTIC AND GULF OF
MEXICO AS PWATS ARE SOME 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL FOR LATE
AUGUST. SUBTLE MID LEVEL PERTURBATIONS WILL STREAM OVERHEAD WITHIN
THE SOUTH/SW FLOW ALOFT...AND COMBINED WITH THE RICH MOISTURE WILL
LEAD TO AT LEAST CHANCE TO LIKELY DAYTIME POPS AND SLIGHT
CHANCE/CHANCE NIGHTTIME POPS. LIMITED STORM MOTION WILL AGAIN CAUSE
THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS...CAUSING A MORE SIGNIFICANT
FLOODING RISK SHOULD THE HEAVY RAINS OCCUR NEAR THE TIMES OF HIGH
TIDE. EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER AND THE WET ATMOSPHERE WILL HOLD DAYTIME
HIGHS BELOW NORMAL...WHILE TEMPS AVERAGE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE
CLIMO AT NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MANY FORECAST DETAILS DEPEND ON THE HIGHLY UNCERTAIN TRACK AND
STRENGTH OF TROPICAL STORM ERIKA NEXT WEEK. RECENT FORECASTS DEPICT
THE SYSTEM NOW HEADING INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO...THEN PERHAPS COMING
ASHORE ALONG THE NORTHEAST GULF COAST. THE LATEST LOCAL FORECAST
STILL OFFERS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME IMPACTS INCLUDING HEAVY
RAIN...GUSTY WINDS...MARINE HAZARDS...SHALLOW COASTAL FLOODING AND
EVEN A THREAT FOR TORNADOES AROUND THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
HOWEVER...THERE REMAINS SEVERAL DIFFERENT POSSIBLE SCENARIOS OF
ERIKA...PENDING WHETHER OR NOT THE SYSTEM SHIFTS INTO THE
GULF...MOVES INTO FLORIDA...STAYS EAST OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA OR
EVEN FALLS APART COMPLETELY. SO LARGE UNCERTAINTIES STILL REMAIN IN
PLACE...ALTHOUGH A MORE WESTERN TRACK LEADS TO LESS IMPACTS THAN A
MORE EASTWARD TRACK. IN SPITE OF THE SHIFT IN TRACK...ALL SHOULD
CONTINUE TO CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THE SYSTEM...STAYING
TUNED TO THE LATEST FORECASTS FROM THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AND
OUR OFFICE CONCERNING ERIKA.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
KSAV...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE EVENING.  INDICATIONS
THAT KSAV WILL EXPERIENCE CEILING AND/OR VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS
ONCE AGAIN TONIGHT HAVE BEEN SEEN CONSISTENTLY IN
GUIDANCE...THOUGH CONFIDENCE IS CURRENTLY LOW IN THE EXTENT OF
RESTRICTIONS. THUS...MVFR CEILINGS HAVE BEEN INDICATED BEGINNING
AT 5Z...THOUGH LOWER CEILINGS/VISIBILITIES ARE POSSIBLE AND WILL
HAVE TO BE REFINED IN FUTURE FORECASTS.

KCHS...VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. UPPER
LEVEL CLOUD DECKS SHOULD GRADUALLY DESCEND TO THE MID LEVELS
THROUGH THE NIGHT AS HEIGHTS ALOFT FALL DUE AS UPPER LEVEL
TROUGHING SHIFTS CLOSER TO THE EAST COAST.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...
FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS COULD OCCUR WITH SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS AND IN
LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING STRATUS/LIGHT FOG. OTHERWISE...MAINLY VFR.
TUESDAY AND BEYOND...CONDITIONS REMAIN HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE
UNCERTAIN TRACK AND INTENSITY OF TROPICAL CYCLONE ERIKA.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT...WINDS AROUND 15 KNOTS WILL PERSIST THIS EVENING AS A
WEAK PRESSURE SURGE MOVES THROUGH THE AREA NORTH OF A STATIONARY
FRONT STALLED JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA. WINDS WILL BE BELOW 10 KTS
EVERYWHERE EXCEPT NEARSHORE CHARLESTON COUNTY WATERS...WHERE WINDS
WILL STAY 10-15 KTS...OVERNIGHT. SEAS WILL BE MAINLY 2-4 FT.

SATURDAY...THE COASTAL WATERS WILL BE SITUATED BETWEEN
A WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE INLAND AND THE REMNANTS OF A STATIONARY
FRONT TO THE EAST/SE...PRODUCING NE/EAST WINDS AT GENERALLY 15 KT
OR LESS. A MIX OF SWELLS AND WIND DRIVEN WAVES WILL COMBINE FOR
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS OF 2-4 FT.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...SUB-TROPICAL ATLANTIC HIGH
PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD OVER THE WATERS...WHICH SHOULD SHUNT
ERIKA FURTHER SOUTH/SW THEN ORIGINALLY ANTICIPATED. THIS WILL RESULT
IN GENERALLY EASTERLY WINDS OF 15 KT OR LESS...AND SEAS WILL AGAIN
BE A MIXTURE OF LONG PERIOD SWELLS AND SHORTER PERIOD WIND DRIVEN
WAVES...AS THESE COMBINED SEAS HOLD AT OR BELOW 4 OR 5 FT.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH MIDWEEK...WINDS/SEAS WILL DEPEND ON THE
UNCERTAIN TRACK AND INTENSITY OF TROPICAL STORM ERIKA. PLEASE STAY
TUNED TO THE LATEST FORECASTS FROM THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AND
OUR OFFICE CONCERNING ERIKA.

RIP CURRENTS...WE HAVE RAISED A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AT
AREA BEACHES FOR SATURDAY GIVEN MODERATE ONSHORE WINDS...SMALL
SWELLS AND STRONG ASTRONOMICAL INFLUENCES DUE TO THE ELEVATED
PERIGEAN SPRING TIDES.

A PERSISTENT LONG PERIOD SWELL...ONSHORE WINDS AND ASTRONOMICAL
INFLUENCES WILL SUPPORT AN ELEVATED RISK OF RIP CURRENTS INTO AT
LEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK...PERHAPS EVEN LONGER PENDING THE FUTURE
EVOLUTION AND TRACK OF ERIKA.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
THIS EVENING...LIGHT NORTHEAST WINDS THROUGH THE DAY TODAY HAVE
PUSHED A MODEST AMOUNT OF WATER INTO COASTAL AREAS.
THIS...COMBINED WITH ELEVATED ASTRONOMICAL TIDAL LEVELS...WILL
RESULT IN MINOR COASTAL FLOODING ALONG COASTAL SOUTH CAROLINA
AREAS THIS EVENING. WATER LEVELS OF .1 TO .2 FT ABOVE FLOOD STAGE
ARE EXPECTED. GEORGIA COASTAL WATERS WILL BE CLOSE TO FLOOD STAGE
AS WELL WITH THE COMING HIGH TIDE AROUND 8 PM...BUT GIVEN THAT
THE TREND OF RECENT TIDAL DEPARTURES HAVE NOT REACHING AS HIGH AS
EXPECTED...DO NOT CURRENTLY EXPECT FT PULASKI SENSOR TO REACH THE
THE FLOODING THRESHOLD.

SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...ASTRONOMICAL INFLUENCES DUE TO THE
PERIGEAN SPRING TIDES PLUS ONSHORE WINDS WILL MAINTAIN ELEVATED
HIGH TIDE LEVELS AT AND NEAR THE COAST. WHILE WE WILL BE CLOSE TO
POSSIBLE SHALLOW COASTAL FLOODING IN CHARLESTON HARBOR WITH THE
MORNING HIGH TIDES INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...A BETTER CHANCE FOR
COASTAL FLOODING EXISTS WITH THE EVENING HIGH TIDE EACH DAY THROUGH
MONDAY. COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR AT
LEAST PARTS OF THE SC COAST...AND WE/LL BE CLOSE TO THE ADVISORY
CRITERIA FURTHER SOUTH...INCLUDING THE SAVANNAH AREA.

TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY...ASTRONOMICAL INFLUENCES WILL
WANE. HOWEVER...ELEVATED TIDES COULD PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEK
PENDING WHAT BECOMES OF ERIKA. PLEASE STAY TUNED TO THE LATEST
FORECASTS FROM THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AND OUR OFFICE
CONCERNING ERIKA.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     SCZ048>051.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
CB/PM



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