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Area Forecast Discussion

629
FXUS62 KCHS 231957
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
357 PM EDT WED APR 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH
THROUGH TONIGHT...BEFORE SHIFTING INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC ON
THURSDAY WHERE IT WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. A WEAK
COLD FRONT COULD DRIFT IN FROM THE NORTH THIS WEEKEND BEFORE HIGH
PRESSURE RETURNS OVER THE AREA AHEAD OF A STRONGER COLD FRONT
PASSING OVER THE REGION TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
TONIGHT...THE DEEP UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EASTWARD
THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH THE AXIS STRETCHING UP INTO THE GREAT LAKES
BY THURSDAY MORNING. AT THE SURFACE...THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BEGIN TO RIDGE DOWN THE EAST SIDE OF THE APPALACHIANS. AS THE HIGH
DOES SO...A TIGHTENING GRADIENT WILL SUPPORT INCREASING NORTHEAST
FLOW THROUGH THE NIGHT. THIS INCREASE IN FLOW SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO
PREVENT IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS DESPITE THE CLEAR
SKIES. LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE LOW 50S FAR INLAND...TO
THE UPPER 50S AND LOW 60S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COASTLINE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THURSDAY...WITHIN A ZONAL FLOW ALOFT...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL
SHIFT OFFSHORE JUST NORTH OF THE AREA THURSDAY AFTERNOON. ANY
PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH ENHANCED MOISTURE DUE TO THE ONSHORE
FLOW SHOULD BE LIMITED TO SOUTHEAST GEORGIA MAINLY SOUTH OF THE
ALTAMAHA RIVER WHERE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL BE MAXIMIZED.
THEREFORE...EXPECT RAIN-FREE CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA WITH
SCATTERED CUMULUS CLOUDS DEVELOPING IN THE AFTERNOON...WITH PERHAPS
SOME GREATER COVERAGE ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST GEORGIA WHERE
MOISTURE WILL BE MORE PLENTIFUL. THERE HAS BEEN A NOTICEABLE COOL
BIAS IN THE MOS BASED GUIDANCE RECENTLY...SO DESPITE THE ONSHORE
SYNOPTIC FLOW WILL INDICATE HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80 IN
SOUTHEAST SC AND IN THE LOWER 80S ACROSS SOUTHEAST GA. THE SEA
BREEZE WILL BE RATHER PRONOUNCED HOWEVER...WITH MANY LOCATIONS ALONG
THE IMMEDIATE COAST NOT SEEING TEMPERATURES GET OUT OF THE UPPER
60S.

THURSDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE POSITIONED NOT FAR OFF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST WILL DRIFT FARTHER FROM SHORE THROUGH THE NIGHT...ALLOWING A
WEAK WARM FRONT TO LIFT NORTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA AND WINDS TO VEER
SOUTHERLY. ENHANCED CONVERGENCE OVER THE COASTAL WATERS WILL
GENERATE ISOLATED CONVECTION...WHICH COULD ADVECT ONSHORE ACROSS
SOUTH COASTAL SC OVERNIGHT. LOWS SHOULD RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S TO
LOWER 60S.

FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL PASS
NORTH OF THE REGION ON FRIDAY...BUT FORCING FOR ASCENT AND
SUFFICIENT MOISTURE ALONG ITS SOUTHERN PERIPHERY COULD RESULT IN
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA THROUGHOUT THE DAY FRIDAY. RAIN-FREE
CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT AS A WEAK/DRY COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TO HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID
80S AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST FRIDAY WITH LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT IN
THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.

SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE AND LIMITED MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES ACROSS THE AREA. THERE APPEARS TO BE A DOWNSLOPE
COMPONENT TO THE WINDS ON SATURDAY...WHICH SHOULD EASILY BOOST
TEMPERATURES INTO THE MID 80S...IF NOT WARMER IN SOME LOCATIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
CONDITIONS LOOK FAIRLY DRY TO START OFF THE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE
LINGERS OVER THE AREA WELL AHEAD OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKING
EAST OVER THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES. LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW ALONG
WITH MID LVL RIDGING OVER THE SOUTHEAST WILL LIKELY RESULT IN A
WARMING TREND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING
SYSTEM. IN GENERAL...HIGH TEMPS WILL BE IN THE LOW/MID 80S SUNDAY
AND POSSIBLY MONDAY BEFORE COOLING A FEW DEGREES FOR AFTERNOON
HIGHS ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SHIFTS
OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST ON MONDAY WITH SOUTHERLY
FLOW IN PLACE...BEFORE PRECIP CHANCES INCREASE TUESDAY AHEAD OF A
COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. GREATEST
CHANCES OF PRECIP SHOULD OCCUR AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES OVER THE
REGION LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY. THROUGH THE
PERIOD...WINDS WILL BECOME MORE NORTHEASTERLY OVERNIGHT AND THEN
EAST OR SOUTHEASTERLY ON THURSDAY.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT...GENERALLY QUIET MARINE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH AND RIDGE DOWN THE
EAST SIDE OF THE APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS. AS IT DOES...A TIGHTENING
GRADIENT WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST WHICH WILL SUPPORT
AN INCREASING NORTHEAST FLOW THROUGH THE NIGHT. WINDS WILL PRIMARILY
RANGE FROM 10-15 KT...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR OCCASIONAL GUSTS
GREATER THAN 15 KT LATE. SEAS WILL BE 1-2 FT WITHIN 20
NM...INCREASING TO 2-3 FT LATE. OVER THE OUTER WATERS SEAS WILL
RANGE FROM 2-3 FT.

THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE OFFSHORE THURSDAY
INTO EARLY FRIDAY...VEERING NORTHERLY WINDS TO SOUTHERLY BY EARLY
WEEKEND. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL THEN QUICKLY ADVANCE OVER THE WATERS
FRIDAY NIGHT WITH MORE HIGH PRESSURE TO FOLLOW INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
WINDS/SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN WELL BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS AT OR BELOW
15 KTS AND SEAS BUILDING NO HIGHER THAN 3-5 FT...HIGHEST IN OUTER
GEORGIA WATERS ON MONDAY.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...BSH
SHORT TERM...JAQ
LONG TERM...DPB
AVIATION...BSH
MARINE...BSH/JAQ




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