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Area Forecast Discussion

233
FXUS62 KCHS 241746
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
146 PM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON...THEN
MOVE OFFSHORE TONIGHT. A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE
AREA LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY...WITH A COLD FRONT THEN MOVING
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY BEFORE RAIN CHANCES INCREASE AHEAD OF A STORM SYSTEM
EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH FROM THE SOUTHWEST WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE THEN RETURNS INTO LATE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD FROM THE NORTHWEST EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON...THEN BECOME CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED
STATES BY MID AFTERNOON. ALOFT...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
CONTINUE TO EXPAND FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN
UNITED STATES. THE PATTERN WILL FAVOR DRY AND COOLER CONDITIONS
TODAY AS STRONG SUBSIDENCE OCCURS AND A NORTHEAST SFC FLOW RESULTS
IN COLD AIR ADVECTION THAT OFFSETS RIDGING ALOFT. IN GENERAL...HIGH
TEMPS WILL RANGE IN THE LOW 70S IN NORTHERN SC AREAS TO MID 70S IN
SOUTHEAST GA...WARMEST SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 16.

LITTLE CLOUD COVER IS ANTICIPATED EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH
WE COULD SEE SOME CIRRUS DEVELOP OVER THE AREA WHILE A STRONG H25
JET CORE PASSES JUST TO OUR NORTH. CONDITIONS WILL SUPPORT A FEW
MORE HOURS OF WIND GUSTS UP TO 15 MPH EARLY THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE
HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES CENTERED OVER THE AREA. HIGHEST GUSTS WILL
OCCUR ALONG COASTAL LOCATIONS.

TONIGHT...THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL SHIFT OVER THE REGION AS
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE INTO THE ATLANTIC. AS THIS
OCCURS...A WARM FRONT WILL GRADUALLY LIFT NORTHWARD TOWARD THE
AREA. THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL MOISTEN AS
THE NIGHT PROGRESSES...THUS SUPPORTING AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER.
WHILE DEVELOPING WARM AIR ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC ASCENT COULD
SUPPORT ISOLATED SHOWERS TOWARD THE MIDLANDS AND CENTRAL SAVANNAH
RIVER AREA /CSRA/ TOWARD DAYBREAK SATURDAY...MOST OF THE NIGHT
SHOULD REMAIN RAIN-FREE GIVEN CONTINUED SUBSIDENCE AND LIMITED LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE. LOW TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S
ACROSS SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA AND IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S ACROSS
SOUTHEAST GEORGIA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SATURDAY...A WARM FRONT SHOULD MOVE NORTH THROUGH THE AREA ALLOWING
A WARMER AND MORE UNSTABLE AIR MASS TO ADVECT OVER SOUTHEAST GEORGIA
AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA. MODERATE INSTABILITY IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON ALONG WITH INCREASING
LOW-LEVEL WINDS. THIS COULD LEAD TO SOME STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS
WITH DAMAGING WINDS THE MAIN HAZARD...ALTHOUGH CANNOT RULE OUT A
FEW TORNADOES GIVEN THE ENHANCED LOW-LEVEL HELICITY ALONG THE
FRONT. WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
/HWO/. OTHERWISE WE LOWERED POPS IN THE MORNING BASED ON THE
LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE WITH THE BEST RAIN CHANCES IN THE AFTERNOON
INTO EARLY EVENING WHEN INSTABILITY...MOISTURE AND UPPER JET
FORCING PEAK. DRIER CONDITIONS WILL MOVE IN SATURDAY NIGHT
ALTHOUGH LINGERING LOW- LEVEL MOISTURE COULD KEEP SOME LOW CLOUDS
AND LIGHT RAIN AROUND.

SUNDAY...MAINLY DRY WITH TEMPS PUSHING 90 GIVEN STRONG OFFSHORE
WINDS AND MAINLY SUNNY SKIES. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE THOUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT AS A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH AND THUS A FEW SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE...MAINLY DEPENDING ON HOW
MUCH CONVECTION FIRES UP TO THE NORTH DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
MAINTAINS ITSELF AS IT MOVES SOUTHWARD INTO AT LEAST SOUTHEAST SC.

MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL WITH DRY WEATHER AND
TEMPERATURES DIPPING BELOW NORMAL IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
DRY HIGH PRESSURE TO PREVAIL MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY BEFORE SOME
SHOWERS RETURN TO AT LEAST SOUTHEAST GEORGIA TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS
MOISTURE INCREASES AHEAD OF DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE GULF
COAST...MORE LIKE A WINTER PATTERN. RAIN CHANCES LOOK TO PEAK
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS THE LOW MOVES THROUGH WITH DRIER
CONDITIONS PREVAILING THEREAFTER THROUGH FRIDAY...ALTHOUGH WILL
LIKELY STILL SEE A FEW SHOWERS AROUND INTO THURSDAY /MAINLY OVER SC/
AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES THROUGH. TEMPERATURES WILL START OFF BELOW
NORMAL THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY BEFORE POSSIBLY GETTING BACK
CLOSER TO NORMAL ASSUMING A PROGRESSIVE UPPER LOW.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT KCHS AND KSAV THROUGH 18Z
SATURDAY. HOWEVER...CIGS WILL BEGIN TO LOWER EARLY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AS SHOWERS AND/OR THUNDERSTORMS BEGIN TO DEVELOP OVER
THE REGION.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN AT LEAST MVFR
CONDITIONS SAT AFTERNOON/EARLY EVE AS A WARM FRONT WITH SHOWERS
AND POSSIBLY SEVERE TSTMS MOVE THROUGH...THEN POSSIBLE IFR CIGS
NEAR DAYBREAK SUN DUE TO LINGERING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE. IT WILL
ALSO BE BREEZY SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS WELL AS SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH
GUSTS TO 25-30 KT LIKELY.

VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD THEN PREVAIL INTO TUE BEFORE SHOWERS AND TSTMS
RETURN MAINLY TUESDAY NIGHT/WED.

&&

.MARINE...
THIS AFTERNOON...SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD FROM THE
NORTHWEST EARLY...BEFORE BECOMING CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN
UNITED STATES MID AFTERNOON. ANOTHER HOUR TO TWO OF ENHANCED
WINDS/SEAS ARE POSSIBLE WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION OVER THE WATERS...BUT
CONDITIONS WILL BE IMPROVING AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS IN
RESPONSE TO THE HIGH BECOMING CENTERED INLAND. IN GENERAL...15 TO
20 KT NORTHEAST WINDS WILL BECOME EAST AND REMAIN BELOW 15 KTS BY
MID AFTERNOON. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES HAVE THEREFORE BEEN ALLOWED
TO EXPIRE FOR NEARSHORE WATERS. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL REMAIN
IN EFFECT FOR OFFSHORE GEORGIA WATERS THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO
LINGERING 6 FT SEAS.

TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT INTO THE ATLANTIC...RESULTING
IN A SOUTH-SOUTHEAST FLOW OF ONLY 5-10 KT ACROSS THE WATERS. SEAS
OF 3-5 FT AT THE START OF THE NIGHT WILL SUBSIDE BY A FOOT OR SO
AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES.

SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE NORTH THROUGH
THE AREA SATURDAY WITH WINDS INCREASING FROM THE SOUTHWEST LATER IN
THE DAY. CONDITIONS SHOULD APPROACH AND POSSIBLY SLIGHTLY EXCEED
ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. THERE WILL ALSO BE A RISK
FOR STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE STORMS INTO THE EVENING. WINDS WILL
REMAIN ELEVATED INTO SUNDAY AHEAD OF A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WHICH
SHOULD PUSH SOUTH THROUGH THE WATERS SUNDAY NIGHT WITH ANOTHER WIND
SURGE WHICH COULD BE NEAR ADVISORY LEVELS AGAIN. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING FROM THE NORTH SHOULD LEAD TO A WEAKENING PRESSURE GRADIENT
AND THUS WINDS AS WELL INTO TUESDAY BEFORE CONDITIONS GO BACK
DOWNHILL AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST
WEDNESDAY...WITH A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY POSSIBLY BEING NEEDED FOR
THE OUTER WATERS BEYOND 20 NM.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR AMZ374.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...DPB
SHORT TERM...RJB
LONG TERM...RJB
AVIATION...DPB/RJB
MARINE...DPB/RJB



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