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Area Forecast Discussion

041
FXUS62 KCHS 240200
AFDCHS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston SC
1000 PM EDT SAT JUL 23 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will gradually shift offshore and persist through
much of next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Isolated Diurnal convection this afternoon and evening dissipated
after sunset and skies were mostly clear to partly cloudy across
the forecast area with most of the lingering clouds of the
cirriform variety. Mid evening mesoanalysis indicates a ribbon of
somewhat higher pwats extend from the SC Midlands to the Pee Dee
with most of the remaining mesoscale boundaries also up in this
region. While a spotty/brief shower may still occur over our far
nw tier of zones prior to midnight, we have silenced all pops on
the evening update given radar and satellite trends. The weather
should remain quiet overnight but will maintain 20% pops for beach
communities mostly north of the Savannah River after 2 AM as the
land breeze develops. Lows will range from the mid 70s inland to
around 80 at the beaches, Downtown Charleston and around Lake
Moultrie.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Expect little change in the pattern through at least early week. A
mid and upper level ridge will build over the area from the west,
while a surface ridge will remain centered to the southeast. This
will setup low level light south-southwest flow, becoming onshore
near the coast each afternoon. Deep layer moisture remains marginal
enough to keep slight chance to low end chance pops in the forecast
for Sunday and Monday. Models in good agreement that moisture will
be very marginal on Monday as mid/upper level dry layer develops
over the region as the upper ridge builds slightly. Have kept slight
chance pops Monday afternoon, with highest over the southwest/GA
area. A slight increase in moisture is shown by models by Tuesday
with slight to low end chance pops again during the afternoon. Given
lack of upper forcing, main trigger for convection will continue to
be the sea breeze and any low level/outflow boundary interactions.
This time of year can never rule out possibility for isolated
strong/severe storms, but widespread severe storms not expected.
Temperatures will continue above normal with highs in the lower to
mid 90s most areas away from the coast, and lows in the mid to upper
70s.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Little change in the weather pattern expected through late week,
with the primary surface features being Atlantic high pressure and a
weak piedmont trough. Fairly typical summertime PoP scheme, with
shower/thunderstorm coverage peaking in the afternoon and evening
when instability is greatest. No more than 20-30% chances warranted
at this time. Temperatures forecast to be above normal through the
period.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR. Isolated afternoon convection may be possible along the sea
breeze/coastal corridor again sunday afternoon.

Extended Aviation Outlook: VFR expected to prevail both sites through
much of the week. Only brief flight restrictions possible each afternoon
with isolated showers/thunderstorms.

&&

.MARINE...
Overnight: Low-level winds will veer to the southwest overnight
as high pressure remains anchored well offshore. Speeds will
increase to 10-15 kt with seas 2-3 ft with a few 4 footers well
off the coast beyond 20 nm late.

Sunday through Thursday: No highlights expected through the
period. Atlantic high pressure will prevail with south-southeast
winds through Monday, veering to south-southwest Tuesday through
Thursday. Winds will be 15 knots or less and seas generally 3 feet
or less. Isolated to scattered mainly late night through morning
showers and thunderstorms each day.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
SC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
MARINE...



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