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Area Forecast Discussion

749
FXUS62 KCHS 191426
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
1026 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COOLER CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL TODAY AND TONIGHT...BEFORE
MOVING INTO THE ATLANTIC WITH A WARMING TREND MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN ITS WAKE THROUGH LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
FORECAST IN PRETTY GOOD SHAPE SO NO MAJOR CHANGES WERE MADE. COOL
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA BEHIND A DEPARTING COLD
FRONT NOW ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA. HIGHS WILL BE BELOW NORMAL FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR...MOSTLY RANGING FROM THE LOWER 70S ACROSS
SOUTHEAST SC TO MID 70S OVER SOUTHEAST GA. SKIES WILL BE GENERALLY
SUNNY OUTSIDE OF SOME CIRRUS MOVING THROUGH FROM THE WEST. BREEZY
CONDITIONS WILL DIMINISH...ESPECIALLY INLAND...AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN AND THE PRESSURE GRADIENT/LOW-LEVEL JET WEAKEN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL DROP INTO EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA BY
SUNRISE MONDAY WITH A PRONOUNCED SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDING SOUTHWEST
INTO THE MIDLANDS...CSRA AND FAR INTERIOR PARTS OF SOUTHERN SOUTH
CAROLINA. ALTHOUGH WINDS WILL LIKELY DROP OFF RATHER SIGNIFICANTLY
AWAY FROM THE COAST...WINDS SHOULD HOLD UP AT THE BEACHES AND FOR
AREAS EAST OF HIGHWAY 17 IN COASTAL SOUTH CAROLINA/I-95 ALONG
COASTAL GEORGIA. THIS COUPLED WITH A INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER
EXPECTED TO OCCUR ACROSS THE COASTAL COUNTIES LATE IN RESPONSE TO
WEAK ISENTROPIC ASSENT DEVELOPING ATOP A WEAK COASTAL TROUGH
OFFSHORE WILL YIELD A FAIRLY TIGHT THERMAL GRADIENT FOR LOW
TEMPERATURES EARLY MONDAY. EXPECT LOWS TO RANGE FROM THE LOWER-MID
40S INLAND WHERE RADIATIONAL CONDITIONS WILL BE THE MOST IDEAL TO
THE UPPER 50S/LOWER 60S ACROSS NORTH COASTAL GEORGIA. SKY COVER
WILL RANGE FROM MOSTLY CLEAR INLAND TO PARTLY OR EVEN MOSTLY
CLOUDY AT THE COAST BY MONDAY MORNING.

MONDAY...A SHARPENING UPPER TROUGH WILL TAKE SHAPE OVER THE GREAT
LAKES STATES AS A SURFACE RIDGE MOVES FROM THE MID ATLANTIC STATES
EASTWARD OFFSHORE BY LATE DAY. A WEAK COASTAL TROUGH WILL REMAIN
OFFSHORE WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS POSSIBLE WITHIN THE TROUGH OVER THE
ATLANTIC WATERS. LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL VEER FROM EAST-NORTHEAST TO
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE DAY. NO MEASURABLE/SIGNIFICANT PRECIP
EXPECTED OVER THE LAND AS DEEP LAYER MOISTURE REMAINS INSUFFICIENT.
HIGHS NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL IN THE UPPER 70S...EXCEPT LOWER
70S AT THE COAST. BY MONDAY NIGHT...THE LOW LEVEL FLOW VEERS TO
LIGHT WEST-SOUTHWEST. HOWEVER...DUE TO SURFACE DEW POINTS IN THE 50S
AND RELATIVELY CLEAR SKIES...TEMPERATURES SHOULD DROP INTO THE LOWER
TO MID 50S /NEAR NORMAL/.

TUESDAY...A DEEP UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE NE U.S. WITH OUR
REGION ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE TROUGH AXIS. LOW LEVEL
WESTERLY FLOW SHOULD PROVIDE SOME COMPRESSIONAL HEATING DUE TO A DOWN
SLOPE COMPONENT. EXPECT HIGHS TO BE A FEW DEGS. ABOVE NORMAL AROUND
80 TO THE LOWER 80S. A COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA TUESDAY
NIGHT FROM NORTH TO SOUTH AS POLAR HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE
NORTHWEST. AGAIN...INSUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER MOISTURE WILL PREVENT
THIS FRONT FROM PRODUCING ANY PRECIPITATION. LOWS BY MORNING FALL BACK
INTO THE LOWER TO MID 50S.

WEDNESDAY...THE DEEP UPPER LOW STARTS TO CLOSE OFF JUST SOUTH OF NEW
ENGLAND WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST.
LOW LEVEL NORTHERLY FLOW WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S
UNDER FULL SUNSHINE /2 TO 4 DEGS. BELOW NORMAL/.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A DEEP/CLOSED UPPER LOW REMAINS OVER NEW ENGLAND THROUGH FRIDAY WITH
A SHALLOW DEEP LAYER RIDGE CENTERED JUST WEST OF THE AREA. THIS WILL
PROVIDE GENERALLY LOW LEVEL NORTHERLY FLOW WITH TEMPERATURES
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THURSDAY...THEN A GRADUAL MODERATION
TO NEAR NORMAL FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

FORECAST UNCERTAINTY INCREASES BY AROUND FRIDAY AS MODELS DIFFER IN
THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH EVOLUTION BEHIND THE DEPARTING CLOSED LOW OVER
NEW ENGLAND. THE GFS KEEPS A MORE OPEN AND PROGRESSIVE UPPER TROUGH
THAT MOVES INTO THE SE U.S. BY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...WHILE THE ECMWF
DROPS A CLOSED LOW OVER THE WESTERN GULF. THE GFS KICKS A STRONG
SURFACE LOW /LIKELY TROPICAL IN NATURE/ OUT OF THE YUCATAN REGION
NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS SOUTHERN FL EARLY SATURDAY...THEN WELL OFFSHORE
OF OUR COAST SUNDAY. THE ECMWF KEEPS A WEAK/BROAD SURFACE LOW IN THE GULF
THROUGH THE PERIOD. ALTHOUGH BOTH SOLUTIONS ARE QUITE DIFFERENT...
BOTH KEEP PRECIP/MOISTURE OUT OF OUR REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD.
THUS...KEPT MENTION OF ANY PRECIP OUT OF THIS FORECAST FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR. SOME GUSTS NEAR 15 KT THROUGH ABOUT 16Z.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...THERE ARE NO CONCERNS THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY...WINDS GENERALLY ON THEIR WAY DOWN...WITH SEAS SOON TO
FOLLOW...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE WEST. WILL DROP THE
ADVISORY FOR THE NEAR SHORE WATERS BUT MAINTAIN IT FOR THE
OFFSHORE WATERS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AS IT WILL TAKE LONGER FOR
THE SEAS TO DROP BELOW 6 FT THERE GIVEN THE NORTH/NORTHEAST FLOW.

TONIGHT...CONDITIONS WILL STEADILY IMPROVE OVER THE WATERS TONIGHT
WITH WINDS SETTLING IN AROUND 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS WILL
RANGE FROM 1-3 FT NEARSHORE WATERS AND 3-4 FT OFFSHORE WATERS.

MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...NO HIGHLIGHTS EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY
WITH WINDS 15 KT OR LESS AND SEAS 3 TO 4 FT OR LESS. ANOTHER COLD
FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE WATERS TUESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY.
WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 15 TO 20 KT BEHIND THIS FRONT...BUT NO
EXPECTING SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS AT THIS POINT. POLAR HIGH
PRESSURE WILL REMAIN CENTERED NORTH AND WEST OF THE REGION THROUGH
FRIDAY WITH NORTHERLY FLOW OF 15 KT OR LESS AND SEAS GENERALLY 3
FT OR LESS.

RIP CURRENTS...THERE IS JUST ENOUGH OF AN ONSHORE COMPONENT TO
THE WIND AND A LITTLE LINGERING BACKSWELL FROM HURRICANE GONZALO
TO FORECAST A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AT THE GEORGIA BEACHES
SUNDAY. DESPITE A LITTLE SWELL ACROSS THE SOUTH CAROLINA BEACHES...
THE FLOW IS MOSTLY OFFSHORE. THIS EQUATES TO A LOW END RISK OF RIP
CURRENTS. EVEN SO...THERE WILL STILL BE SOME NORTHEAST-SOUTHWEST
LONGSHORE CURRENTS.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR AMZ374.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...RJB
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
MARINE...






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