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Area Forecast Discussion

816
FXUS62 KCHS 230531
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
1231 AM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH WILL SLOWLY GIVE WAY TO A WARM FRONT
WHICH WILL MOVE NORTH THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL
THEN SHIFT TOWARD THE COAST AND OFFSHORE BY MONDAY NIGHT. THE FRONT
WILL MEANDER OFF THE SE COAST INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY...BEFORE MOVING
AWAY AND ALLOWING FOR HIGH PRESSURE TO RETURN INTO THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
THE WARM FRONT DEVELOPING ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF AND NORTHERN
FLORIDA EARLY THIS MORNING HAS LINKED UP WITH THE SHARPENING
COASTAL FRONT JUST OFFSHORE OF THE SOUTH CAROLINA AND GEORGIA
COASTS. THE TEMPERATURE AT BUOY 41004 HAS TOPPED 70 DEGREES AND
CONTINUES TO RISE. THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO PULL NORTH TO A
POSITION ROUGHLY ALONG A LUDOWICI-TYBEE ISLAND-EDISTO BEACH-CAPE
ROMAIN LINE BY SUNRISE WITH TEMPERATURES HOLDING NEARLY STEADY TO
THE NORTH...WHILE SLOWLY RISING FOR PARTS OF COASTAL GEORGIA.
WIDESPREAD RAINS DEVELOPING ALONG THE NOSE OF A STRONG LOW-LEVEL
JET ARE STEADILY EXPANDING OVER THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE INTO
SOUTHERN GEORGIA...WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO EXPAND NORTH THROUGH THE
NIGHT. EXPECT WIDESPREAD RAINS TO BE IN PROGRESS BY SUNRISE SUNDAY
WITH TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE LOWER-MID 50S ACROSS FAR
INTERIOR AREAS WITHIN THE DECAYING WEDGE TO THE LOWER-MID 60S
ALONG THE COAST AND FAR SOUTH.

FOR THE MIDNIGHT UPDATE...
* MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENT TO HOURLY POPS PER GOING RADAR AND SHORT
  TERM MODEL TRENDS. INTRODUCED LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS MOST
  AREAS BY SUNRISE.
* CHANGED WEATHER CHARACTER TO PERIODS OF RAIN.
* ADJUSTED HOURLY TEMPERATURES AND LOW TEMPERATURES TO REFLECT
  STEADY OR SLOWLY RISING TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SUNDAY...AN IMPRESSIVE MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE WILL TAKE ON A NEGATIVE
TILT AS IT ADVANCES QUICKLY EAST THROUGH THE LOWER/MID MS VALLEY
EARLY IN THE PERIOD TO THE TN VALLEY BY LATE IN THE DAY. THIS IS IN
RESPONSE TO THE AMPLIFICATION OF A LARGER SCALE TROUGH IN THE GREAT
PLAINS AND A 110 KT OR GREATER UPPER JET THAT DIVES INTO THE LARGE
SCALE TROUGH. THIS IN TURN WILL TRIGGER CYCLOGENESIS ALONG AN
INITIAL COLD FRONT IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS AS IT DEEPENS AND HEADS
RAPIDLY EAST/NE THROUGH THE DAY TOWARD THE UPPER MIDWEST. AS THIS
TRANSITION OCCURS IT WILL DRAW A WARM FRONT STEADILY NORTH AS IT
REACHES ACROSS THE ALTAMAHA RIVER AND TOWARD THE SC COAST BY AROUND
15Z...ROUGHLY ALONG A LINE FROM US-17 IN SC TO I-16 IN SE GA BY
18Z...AND PROGRESSING NORTH OF THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA BY
NIGHTFALL.

HERE ARE THE DETAILS OF THE FORECAST...

PRECIPITATION...LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT IN RESPONSE TO A MID
LEVEL IMPULSE THAT ARRIVES FROM THE SOUTH/SW EARLY IN THE DAY...SOME
AFTERNOON HEIGHTS FALLS IN RESPONSE TO THE UPSTREAM SHORT WAVE AND
APPROACHING WARM FRONT...AIDED BY SOME HINTS OF 700-500 MB
FRONTOGENESIS...PWATS NEAR OR GREATER THAN THE 99TH
PERCENTILE...ISENTROPIC ASCENT ON VARIOUS LEVELS AND A 35-45 KT LOW
LEVEL JET WILL SUPPORT WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED T-STORMS. THE
TROPOSPHERE IS FULLY SATURATED AS A RESULT AND WE HAVE CONTINUED THE
IDEA OF 100 PERCENT POPS ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA. THE
BULLS-EYE OF RAIN WILL OCCUR IN THE EARLY-MID ACROSS OUR
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN ZONES...ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION LATE MORNING/EARLY
AFTERNOON...THEN SHIFTING INTO NORTHERN SECTIONS FOR MID-LATE
AFTERNOON AS A PSEUDO DRY-TONGUE TRIES TO PUSH NORTH IN WAKE OF THE
NORTHWARD PROGRESSING WARM FRONT. RAIN WILL BE HEAVY AT TIMES AND
THERE COULD BE AT LEAST FLASH FLOOD ADVISORIES OR PERHAPS EVEN A
COUPLE OF FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS DURING THE MID-MORNING HIGH TIDE WITH
THE COMBINATION OF ELEVATED ASTRONOMICAL TIDES AND HEAVY
RAINS...ESPECIALLY OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN COASTAL SECTIONS. A
GLANCE AT THE DAILY PRECIP RECORDS SUGGEST THAT KCHS HAS A GOOD SHOT
OF SETTING A NEW RECORD...AND WE COULD BE CLOSE AT KCXM AND KSAV
ALSO GIVEN MAV MOS GUIDANCE 12 HOURS QPF OF 2 INCHES OF GREATER. SEE
THE HYDROLOGY SECTION BELOW FOR FURTHER DETAILS.

SEVERE WEATHER...SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY WILL BE CONFINED TO OUR
COASTAL WATERS EARLY IN THE PERIOD...BEFORE THIS TRANSITIONS ONSHORE
AND INLAND IN RESPONSE TO THE PASSAGE OF THE WARM FRONT. DESPITE THE
NEGATIVE TILTED SHORT WAVE FEATURE...THE BEST DYNAMICS REMAIN WELL
TO THE WEST/NW AND THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH LIFTS AWAY TO THE NW AWAY
FROM THE FROM RICH INFLUX OF MOISTURE. PLUS WE HAVE A CONSTANT FEED
OF MARITIME AIR WITH A SE SYNOPTIC FLOW THAT VEERS TO THE SOUTH
LATE. THIS ALONG WITH LIMITED LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES WITHIN THE
SATURATED ENVIRONMENT WILL KEEP THE RISK OF SEVERE STORMS QUITE LOW.
HOWEVER...GIVEN THE PRESENCE OF THE WARM FRONT...MODEST MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES...A STRONGLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT AND LOW LFC/S THERE
CERTAINLY DOES REMAIN A RISK FOR AN ISOLATED TORNADO OR TWO GIVEN
VGP AND SHERBS3 VALUES CLOSE TO CRITICAL THRESHOLDS. A SLIGHTLY
BETTER RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER MAY COME CLOSER TO EVENING WHEN WE/RE
SOLIDLY WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR AND THE FLOW VEERS FURTHER. THIS IS
DISCUSSED IN THE SUNDAY NIGHT SECTION.

TEMPS...HIGHLY DEPENDENT UPON THE TIMING OF THE UPCOMING WARM
FRONT...AND FIGURE ON A FAIRLY DECENT RANGE FROM NORTH/NW TO
SOUTH/SE AND AWAY FROM THE COAST. FOR NOW WE HAVE A CONSERVATIVE
RANGE FROM THE MID-UPPER 60S NORTH/NW TO LOWER 70S SOUTH/SE...BUT
THIS MAY NEED FURTHER REFINEMENTS IN SUBSEQUENT FORECAST CYCLES AS
EVEN WARMER AIR WILL BE LURKING JUST TO THE SOUTH.

SUNDAY EVENING INTO SUNDAY NIGHT...THE FORECAST REGION WILL LIE
SOLIDLY WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR AS THE WARM FRONT PULLS FAR TO THE
NORTH. A TAIL OF THE INITIAL SHORT WAVE FEATURE WILL SHIFT QUICKLY
THROUGH IN THE EVENING TO OFF THE COAST BY 06Z. ON ITS HEELS IS A
120 KT OR GREATER UPPER JET THAT ORIENTS ITSELF EAST/NE TO WEST/SW
ACROSS THE OH/TN VALLEYS TO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. GIVEN THIS POSITION
WE/RE WITHIN THE RIGHT FRONT QUAD OF THE JET WHICH SUGGESTS
UNFAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL CONVERGENCE/CONFLUENCE RATHER THAN
DIVERGENCE/DIFLUENCE. PLUS THERE IS A LARGE AMOUNT OF CINH THAT
DEVELOPS AND LAPSE RATES OVERALL REMAIN POOR...ESPECIALLY INT HE
LOWER LEVELS WHERE A SUBTLE INVERSION FORMS. THIS SHOULD KEEP ANY
SEVERE THREAT IN CHECK...BUT A CONTINUATION OF LOW LFC LEVELS AND
HIGH SHEAR STILL SUPPORTS A RISK OF ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS THAT MAY
ARRIVE FROM THE WEST IN ADVANCE OF A DECAYING SQUALL LINE DURING THE
LAST FEW HOURS OF SUNDAY INTO EARLY SUNDAY NIGHT.

OTHERWISE...RAIN CHANCES WILL STEADILY WANE FROM SOUTH/SW TO
NORTH/NE WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR. GIVEN THE EXTREME WETNESS FROM ALL
THE RAIN AND SOME INDICATIONS OF STRATUS BUILD-DOWN AND MAYBE EVEN A
LITTLE SEA FOG THROWN INTO THE MIX WE/LL SEE AT LEAST PATCHY FOG
DEVELOPING...DESPITE THE STRONG WIND FIELDS. PROBABLY THESE WINDS
ARE TOO HIGH FOR DENSE FOG...BUT WE/LL MAINTAIN A CLOSE WEATHER
WATCH TO BE SURE. TEMPS WON/T BUDGE MUCH THROUGH THE NIGHT...WITH A
LIMITED DIURNAL RANGE INHIBITED BY THE WIDESPREAD CLOUDINESS AND
FULL SATURATION THAT OCCURS.

MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...THE COLD FRONT TRAILING FROM AN INTENSE
SURFACE CYCLONE AND VERTICALLY STACKED LOW OVER THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES AND INTO SOUTHERN CANADA WILL HAVE BECOME SOMEWHAT SEPARATED
FROM THE PARENT SYSTEM...AS IT ALIGNS ITSELF NEARLY PARALLEL TO THE
FLOW ALOFT ALONG THE EAST/SE PERIPHERY OF THE EXPANSIVE DEEP LAYERED
TROUGH. FRONTAL PROGRESSION WILL BE SLOW AS A RESULT...LIKELY NOT
OCCURRING UNTIL THE NIGHTTIME HOURS. THERE REMAINS SOME UNCERTAINTY
REGARDING THE AMOUNT AND POSITIONING OF CONVECTION...BUT GIVEN A
DEEP BAND OF MOISTURE...LIKELY OVER OUR EASTERNMOST SECTIONS WE HAVE
MAINTAINED 30-40 POP SCHEME...GREATEST NEAR THE COASTAL CORRIDOR.
WHILE THERE CAN STILL BE SOME T-STORMS WITHIN A SLIGHTLY UNSTABLE
ENVIRONMENT...ANY SEVERE RISK SEEMS CLOSE TO...IF NOT ZERO. TEMPS
WILL BE FAR ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS...BUT PROBABLY NOT QUITE AT RECORD
LEVELS WHICH ARE IN THE LOWER 80S. HOWEVER...IT IS WORTH NOTING THAT
THE PARALLEL GFS MOS GUIDANCE HAS PERFORMED WELL OF LATE AND IS
SUGGESTING THAT WE COULD FLIRT WITH THE RECORD HIGHS. THIS IS ALSO
IN LINE WITH THE LOW-LEVEL THICKNESS FORECAST. FOR NOW WE HAVE SHOWN
UPPER 70S AWAY FROM THE SHORELINE AND CAN ALWAYS ADJUST HIGHER LATER
IN NECESSARY. THE BULK OF CONVECTION WILL MOVE INTO THE ATLANTIC
AFTER SUNSET...BUT CLOUD COVER MIGHT BE SLOW IN ERODING. BUT THAT
SHOULD BE OFFSET BY MODEST COOL ADVECTION WHICH WILL EQUATE TO TEMPS
SOME 10-15 DEGREES COOLER THAN THE PREVIOUS NIGHT.

TUESDAY...THE COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL LINGER
NOT FAR OFF THE SE COAST...STILL STUCK WITHIN THE SW FLOW ALOFT
WITHIN A HUGE LARGE SCALE TROUGH ACROSS THE NATION. WHILE IT DOES
APPEAR THAT THE FRONT WILL BE FAR ENOUGH INTO THE ATLANTIC TO KEEP
THE BULK OF THE ASSOCIATED RAINS OFFSHORE...THE FLOW BACKS A LITTLE
SOUTH IN RESPONSE TO A STRONG SHORT WAVE THAT DIVES INTO THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS. THAT MAY PULL MOISTURE BACK A LITTLE MORE TOWARD
SHORE LATE IN THE DAY. AT PRESENT WE HAVE 20-40 POPS FROM NW TO SE.
TEMPS WILL BE HELD IN CHECK BY EXPANSIVE CLOUDINESS AND THE LACK OF
ANY WARM ADVECTION...AND SOME 15 DEGREES OR MORE COOLER THAN ON
MONDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE AXIS OF A ROBUST UPPER TROUGH WILL FINALLY SWEEP TOWARD THE
COAST WEDNESDAY...WITH ABUNDANT ENERGY HELPING TO DEEPEN THE SURFACE
WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE MEANDERING OFFSHORE FRONT. THERE
REMAINS A CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW FAR WEST/NW
AND ASSOCIATED RAINS WILL MAKE IT. THIS WILL HAVE HUGE IMPLICATIONS
ON THE FORECAST INTO WEDNESDAY. FINALLY THE RESULTING LOW SYSTEM
WILL RAPIDLY LIFT NORTH/NORTHEAST AWAY FROM THE AREA BY WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. DRIER HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN EVENTUALLY BUILD INTO THE
REGION FROM THE WEST. A NOTABLE COOLING TREND IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK...WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES
SUPPRESSED IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S...AND LOWS FALLING INTO THE
30S.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
KCHS...CONDITIONS ARE POISED TO DETERIORATE RAPIDLY AT THE THE
TERMINAL OVERNIGHT AS RAINS MOVING FROM THE SOUTH AND CIGS DROP
INTO MVFR THRESHOLDS. THE HIGHEST WEATHER IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED TO
OCCUR 15-19Z WHEN THE AXIS OF HEAVIEST RAINS MOVES THROUGH ALONG
THE NOSE OF A LOW-LEVEL JET. EXPECT IFR CONDITIONS DURING THIS
TIME. THE BULK OF THE RAIN SHOULD TRANSLATE NORTH OF KCHS AFTER
19Z AS THE WARM FRONT MOVES NORTH. SHOULD SEE VERY GUSTY WINDS
DURING THIS TIME WITH GUSTS APPROACHING 25 KT AT TIMES. ANOTHER
ROUND OF LIGHT SHOWERS COULD IMPACT THE TERMINAL AFTER 01Z.

KSAV...RAIN AND LOWER CIGS ARE POISED TO ENCOMPASS THE TERMINAL
SHORTLY. EXPECT PREVAILING MVFR CONDITIONS BY 09Z WITH CIGS
DROPPING TO BKN015 WITH PREVAILING 4SM -RA. THE AXIS OF HEAVIEST
RAINFALL IS FORECAST TO IMPACT THE TERMINAL 11-16Z AS THE NOSE OF
THE LOW-LEVEL JET MOVES THROUGH. LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR IS LIKELY
DURING THIS TIME AS 2000 FT WINDS INCREASE TO 40 KT. THE HEAVIEST
RAINS WILL MOVE NORTH OF THE TERMINAL BY 16Z AS THE WARM FRONT
PUSHES THROUGH. SHOULD SEE GUSTY WINDS DEVELOP IT ITS WAKE WITH
GUSTS APPROACHING 25 KT AT TIMES. THE RISK FOR LOW-LEVEL WIND
SHEAR WILL END AS SURFACE WINDS INCREASE. ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS
COULD IMPACT THE TERMINAL AFTER 22Z.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS WILL PREVAIL AT
BOTH TERMINALS INTO EARLY MONDAY AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH OF
THE AREA. THIS WILL RESULT IN MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS IN MODERATE
TO OCCASIONAL RAIN...ISOLATED TSTMS AND GRADUALLY LOWER CEILINGS
AND POSSIBLE FOG/MIST. IT/LL ALSO BE BREEZY SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY...WITH A RISK OF WIND SHEAR SUNDAY NIGHT. PERIODIC FLIGHT
RESTRICTIONS ARE STILL POSSIBLE INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY UNTIL A COLD
FRONT PULLS FARTHER OFFSHORE DURING MID WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...
OVERNIGHT...WINDS WILL VEER TO THE EAST AS THE INLAND WEDGE
BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN AND THE COASTAL FRONT EVENTUALLY MERGES WITH
A DEVELOPING WARM FRONT TO THE SOUTH. ELEVATED WINDS AND SEAS WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE...DESPITE LESS THAN PERFECT MIXING PROFILES IN THE
STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION REGIME. WINDS LOOK TO REMAIN 15-20 KT
NEARSHORE WATERS WITH 20-25 KT WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS OVER THE
GEORGIA WATERS BEYOND 20 NM WHERE WARMER WATER TEMPERATURES WILL
SUPPORT A BIT MORE MIXING. SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS WILL BE 3-6 FT
IN THE NEARSHORE WATERS AND 6-8 FT IN THE OFFSHORE WATERS.

SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...A STRONG AND ELONGATED RIDGE OF ATLANTIC
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE SITUATED EAST-WEST AND NORTH OF THE LOCAL
WATERS AT THE START OF THE PERIOD...BEFORE PULLING FURTHER EAST INTO
THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC. THIS ALLOWS FOR A WARM FRONT HUNG UP TO THE
EAST OF THE COOLER SHELF WATERS SUNDAY MORNING TO GRADUALLY MOVE
NORTH/NW IN RESPONSE TO DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH THE MS
VALLEY TO THE GREAT LAKES. THE FRONT WILL PUSH INTO AND THROUGH THE
MARINE AREA DURING THE MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON AS IT PUSHES
ONSHORE. A TIGHT GRADIENT WILL PREVAIL IN RESPONSE TO THIS PATTERN
AS THE WARM FRONT HEADS FURTHER NORTH/NW THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND
INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. WINDS WILL STEADILY VEER FROM EAST AROUND TO THE
SE SUNDAY...TO THE SOUTH SUNDAY EVENING AND FINALLY TO THE SW BY
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. A 35-45 KT LOW LEVEL JET WILL TRAVERSE THE WATERS
AND DESPITE THE WARM ADVECTION REGIME TO LIMIT MIXING...THIS STILL
SUPPORTS SOLID SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES. WE HAVE TOYED WITH THE IDEA
OF A GALE WATCH...BUT GIVEN MARINE-LAYERING EFFECTS WITHIN A REGIME
WHERE TEMPS OF THE WATER ARE SOME 10 DEGREES COOLER THAN THE AIR
TEMPS AND GEOSTROPHIC WIND FIELDS AT 1000 MB ARE NO MORE THAN AROUND
35 KT...THIS POSSIBILITY IS TOO LOW TO CONSIDER AT PRESENT. MAYBE
FOR THE OUTER GA WATERS AT SOME POINT GALES MIGHT BE REQUIRED SINCE
THEIR WATERS ARE STILL IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 70S AND LESS IMPACTED
BY MARINE-LAYERING INFLUENCES. MARINERS SHOULD ALSO BE PREPARED FOR
STRONG WINDS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED TORNADIC WATERSPOUTS IN ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED T-STORMS THROUGH THE PERIOD. SPECIAL MARINE WARNINGS
MAY BE NECESSARY.

GIVEN SOME 6-8 FOOTERS WITHIN A 0-20 NM WATERS THERE COULD BE SOME
BREAKERS APPROACHING 4 OR 5 FEET AT THE BEACHES. IF THIS COMES TO
FRUITION WE MIGHT NEED A HIGH SURF ADVISORY AT A LATER TIMES. FOR
NOW WE/LL ADD TO THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

ALSO OF CONCERN WILL BE THE POSSIBLE FORMATION OF SEA FOG GIVEN THE
WARMER AIR ACROSS THE NOTICEABLY COOLER SHELF WATERS. WIND SPEEDS
ARE PROBABLY TOO STRONG FOR THIS...BUT GIVEN THE LARGE SPREAD IN
TEMPS AND THE POTENTIAL FOR LOW STRATUS WE HAVE MAINTAINED PATCHY
FOG IN THE GRIDS FOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT OVER THE
SOUTHEAST STATES ON MONDAY WILL MOVE INTO AND THROUGH THE WATERS
BY TUESDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL THEN FORM ALONG THE LINGERING FRONT
JUST OUTSIDE OF THE MARINE AREA AND EVENTUALLY PULL THE FRONT
AWAY FROM THE REGION BY WEDNESDAY. DEPENDING UPON EXACTLY HOW
THIS PATTERN UNFOLDS...ADDITIONAL SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES MAY BE
NEEDED DURING THIS TIME.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN EVENT FOR SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT IS
HIGHLY CERTAIN. ANOMALOUSLY HIGH PWATS OF 1.75-2 INCHES COUPLED WITH
GOOD UPPER DYNAMICS WILL SUPPORT WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINS WITH
EMBEDDED TSTMS ACROSS SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA
DURING THE PERIOD. STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS OF 2-3 INCHES WITH LOCALLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS CAN BE EXPECTED...WITH THE BULK OF THE HEAVIEST RAINS
FALLING ON SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY EVENING. WE/RE STILL BELOW THE FLASH
FLOOD GUIDANCE HOWEVER SINCE WE/RE 1-3 INCHES BELOW NORMAL SINCE
SEPTEMBER 1ST. SO WE/RE HESITANT TO HOIST AN AREAL FLASH FLOOD
WATCH. BUT THE RISK FOR POSSIBLE SIGNIFICANT FLASH FLOODING WILL BE
MAINLY CONFINED TO THE COASTAL COUNTIES WHERE THE COMBINATION OF
HEAVY RAIN AND ABOVE NORMAL HIGH TIDES WILL SUPPORT A HIGHER RISK
FOR FLASH FLOODING...ESPECIALLY IN THE BEAUFORT AND SAVANNAH METRO
AREAS WITH THE MID MOORING HIGH TIDE SUNDAY. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MAY
EVENTUALLY BE NEEDED FOR PARTS OF THE AREA...ESPECIALLY AT THE COAST.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 1 AM EST
     MONDAY FOR AMZ330.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST MONDAY FOR AMZ352.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 4 PM EST MONDAY
     FOR AMZ350.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST TUESDAY FOR AMZ374.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EST MONDAY FOR AMZ354.

&&

$$

ST




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