« Back
NWS Peachtree City, Ga » Text Product » CHS Area Forecast Discussion


Printer-friendly Version
Current Version              Previous Versions:   1  2  3  4  5  6  7  8  9  

Area Forecast Discussion

456
FXUS62 KCHS 012020
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
420 PM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PERSIST OVER THE SOUTHEAST THIS
WEEK. THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH...AND A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
DEVELOP OVER OR CLOSE TO COASTAL WATERS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE FIRING IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE SEABREEZE AND
THIS ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING...MAINLY
SOUTH OF I-16 AND EXPECTED TO QUICKLY DISSIPATE WITH THE LOSS OF
INSOLATION THIS EVENING. THE FOCUS FOR ACTIVITY THEN SWITCHES OVER
PRIMARILY TO THE NEARSHORE WATERS AS A PLUME OF DEEP TROPICAL
MOISTURE CONTINUES TO DRIFT VERY SLOWLY N LATE TODAY AND
TONIGHT...SO GREATEST POPS REMAIN IN AN AREA ENCOMPASSING
PRIMARILY OUR SOUTHERNMOST LAND ZONES AND COASTAL WATERS. IN
ADDITION...ISOLATED SHOWERS CANNOT BE RULED OUT FOR COASTAL SOUTH
CAROLINA THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

LOW TEMPS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM LOW 70S INLAND TO MID 70S NEAR
THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...THE PATTERN ALOFT WILL FEATURE SHORTWAVE
RIDGING FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD EXTENDING FROM A UPPER ANTICYCLONE
POSITIONED NEAR THE BAHAMAS. THE RIDGE BREAKS DOWN BY FRIDAY AS
TROUGHING FROM THE WEST PUSHES IN. EMBEDDED WITHIN THE RIDGE
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY IS A SHORTWAVE THAT IS PROGGED TO PUSH
ACROSS SOUTH GEORGIA AND EVENTUALLY OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. AT THE
SURFACE...THE PATTERN IS RATHER BENIGN WITH NO PROMINENT FEATURES TO
SPEAK OF. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL GENERALLY COVER THE AREA THROUGH
THURSDAY...WITH A LARGER AND BETTER DEFINED HIGH STARTING TO BUILD
IN FROM THE NORTHEAST ON FRIDAY. MODEL SOLUTIONS FOR THE MID TO LATE
WEEK TIME PERIOD DISPLAY A GOOD DEAL OF INCONSISTENCY REGARDING THE
COVERAGE AND AMOUNT OF CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION. THE OVERALL
CONSENSUS IS TO FAVOR THE BEST COVERAGE ACROSS SOUTHEAST GEORGIA
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WHERE THE BETTER MOISTURE WILL RESIDE. THEN
BY FRIDAY CHANCE POPS ARE WARRANTED ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA
WITH THE LARGER SCALE TROUGH BEING INTRODUCED ALOFT. POPS ARE ALONG
THE SAME LINES AS THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...WITH CHANCE POPS FOR
SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND SLIGHT CHANCES ELSEWHERE WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE ON THE WARM SIDE
ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...WITH HIGHS INTO THE LOW 90S AND
LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S. SUCH TEMPERATURES WOULD BE ABOUT 2-4
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR EARLY SEPTEMBER.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AT THE SURFACE...EXPANSIVE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED NORTH OF THE
REGION WILL BUILD SOUTH NEXT WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...AND A
COASTAL TROUGH SHOULD DEVELOP. ALOFT...A COMPLEX BLOCKING PATTERN
WILL DEVELOP...AND MEDIUM RANGE MODELS GENERALLY AGREE THAT THE
UPPER TROUGH WILL BECOME CUT OFF OVER THE SOUTHEAST THIS WEEKEND AND
WILL MEANDER OVER THE REGION INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS PATTERN
SHOULD FAVOR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPS AND ABOVE NORMAL POPS.
UNCERTAINTY EXISTS REGARDING THE RELATIVE POSITIONS/STRENGTHS OF
CRITICAL FEATURES INCLUDING THE NORTH-SOUTH MOISTURE GRADIENT WHICH
TYPICALLY DEVELOPS IN THESE PATTERNS. THUS...CHANCE POPS ARE IN ORDER
DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS...HIGHEST SOUTH AND OVER COASTAL
WATERS...AND NIGHTTIME POPS ARE FOCUSED ACROSS SOUTHERN/COASTAL
COUNTIES AND ACROSS COASTAL WATERS. FORECAST ADJUSTMENTS WILL BE
NECESSARY AS DETAILS EMERGE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT BOTH TERMINALS THROUGH
18Z WEDNESDAY. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE...PARTICULARLY NEAR KSAV
LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. SOME SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN
THE VICINITY OF EITHER TERMINAL DUE TO THE PROGRESSION OF THE
SEABREEZE BUT THE PROBABILITY FOR DIRECT IMPACTS IS TOO LOW TO
INCLUDE IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME. THERE ARE ONLY A FEW INDICATIONS
THAT OVERNIGHT FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS IN MVFR CEILINGS AND/OR VSBYS
COULD OCCUR...AND THANKS TO THE INCREASED MOISTURE AND LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS...MVFR CIGS ARE CERTAINLY POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT AT
KSAV ALONG WITH A FEW SHOWERS BUT PROBABILITIES ARE LOW.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK THROUGH SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR. THE
PROBABILITY FOR FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS WILL INCREASE THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.MARINE...
A WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN WILL PERSIST WITH SYNOPTIC FLOW FAVORING
A MAINLY SSE TO SSW COMPONENT UNTIL ROUGHLY 10Z WHEN A LAND BREEZE
BEGINS TO TAKE OVER WITH PRIMARILY W TO NW FLOW FIRMLY INGRAINED
BY 11Z. SPEEDS MAINLY 10 KT OR LESS AND SEAS 2 TO 3 FT THROUGH
TOMORROW MORNING.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...THROUGH THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK A
WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS. WINDS
WILL GENERALLY BE 10 KT OR LESS...WITH SOME LOCAL ENHANCEMENTS ALONG
THE LAND/SEA INTERFACE WITH THE DIURNAL SEA BREEZE. DURING THIS
TIME...SEAS WILL STAY IN THE 1-2 FT RANGE. THEN OVER THE
WEEKEND...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH. WINDS WILL
INCREASE IN THE TIGHTER NORTHEAST GRADIENT AND SEAS WILL TICK UPWARD
AS WELL.

RIP CURRENTS...AN ELEVATED RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS COULD DEVELOP AGAIN
NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...JMC
SHORT TERM...BSH
LONG TERM...SPR
AVIATION...BSH/JMC
MARINE...BSH/JMC



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.