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Area Forecast Discussion

583
FXUS62 KCHS 220538
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
138 AM EDT FRI AUG 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
THE REGION WILL REMAIN BETWEEN ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE AND AN
INLAND TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE THROUGH FRIDAY. A BACKDOOR COLD
FRONT WILL ADVANCE THROUGH THE AREA THIS WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL THEN BUILD FROM THE NORTH THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
A STRONG AND DEEP RIDGE WILL REMAINED ANCHORED ACROSS THE LOWER
TN VALLEY AND NORTHERN GULF COAST REGION THROUGH THE NIGHT...WHILE
AT THE SURFACE A LEE SIDE TROUGH PERSISTS. THE WARM MID AND UPPER
LEVELS AND IT/S ASSOCIATED LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE WILL INHIBIT
SHOWERS/T-STORMS TONIGHT...AND GENERATE MOSTLY CLEAR TO CLEAR
SKIES. THE BUILD-UP OF HEAT FROM THURSDAY...WHEN TEMPS PEAKED IN
THE MID AND UPPER 90S WILL SET THE STAGE FOR A WARM AND STUFFY
NIGHT. ACTUAL LOWS WILL STRUGGLE TO DROP TO THE MID OR UPPER
70S...EXCEPT FOR LOWER 70S ALONG THE NW TIER AND OVER INTERIOR SE
GA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A DEEP LAYER RIDGE REMAINS CENTERED OVER THE LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY
WHILE AN UPPER TROUGH SITS FROM OF THE COAST OF NEW ENGLAND...
SOUTHWEST TO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. WEST-NORTHWEST DEEP LAYER
WINDS WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION...WHICH WILL RESULT A
DOWNSLOPING COMPONENT TO THE FLOW...RESULTING IN A CONTINUATION OF
VERY HOT TEMPERATURES. MODELS GENERALLY AGREE THAT A BACKDOOR FRONT
WILL APPROACH THE NORTHERN AREA LATE ON SATURDAY..THEN PUSH NEAR TO
JUST SOUTH OF THE REGION SUNDAY.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...THE BIG STORY FOR THIS PERIOD WILL BE THE
CONTINUATION OF VERY HOT TEMPERATURES. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW
HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S...EVEN SOME 100S IN SPOTS. HOWEVER...
IT HAS BEEN DIFFICULT TO FORECAST THE DEWPOINTS...WHICH THEREFORE
MAKES IT DIFFICULT TO FORECAST THE MAX HEAT INDICES. LATEST GUIDANCE
AGAIN SHOWS MAX HEAT INDICES FRIDAY AND SATURDAY IN THE 105-110 DEG.
RANGE...VERY SIMILAR TO TODAY. GIVEN THE MARGINAL NATURE OF THE HEAT
ADVISORY TODAY...HAVE DECIDED TO HOLD OFF ISSUING ANY ADVISORY FOR
FRIDAY. EITHER WAY...IT WILL STILL BE VERY HOT/HUMID. GIVEN THE
PRESENCE OF A DEEP LAYER RIDGE JUST TO WEST AND SOME DOWNSLOPE
FLOW...KEPT ISOLATED AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING POPS EACH DAY.

SUNDAY...THE PATTERN STARTS TO CHANGE AS A BACKDOOR FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO PUSH TO JUST SOUTH OF THE REGION WITH INCREASING
NORTHEAST FLOW. MODELS SHOW SUFFICIENT DEEP MOISTURE WITH THIS
FRONT. GIVEN LACK OF UPPER LEVEL FORCING...HAVE MAINTAINED CHANCE
POPS FOR NOW. HIGH TEMPS A BIT COOLER...BUT ACTUALLY STILL NEAR
NORMAL...AROUND 90 NORTH TO THE LOWER 90S EXTREME SOUTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL PATTERN IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE
A STRONG RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. MEANWHILE AT THE
SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO THE REGION FROM
THE NORTH. THIS STRONG RIDGE APPEARS TO BODE WELL FOR THE REGION AS
MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IS PERSISTENT IN DEVELOPING A TROPICAL SYSTEM
SOMEWHERE NEAR THE LESSER ANTILLES AND CARIBBEAN SEA. FORTUNATELY
GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT SHOWING THE POTENTIAL
TROPICAL CYCLONE TURNING WELL OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST DUE TO THE
STRENGTH OF THE INLAND RIDGE. AS FOR EXPECTED WEATHER CONDITIONS...
THERE IS GENERALLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY
THROUGH MID-WEEK...ALTHOUGH EXPECT A BETTER CHANCE ACROSS PARTS OF
NORTH COASTAL GEORGIA GIVEN THE ONSHORE TRAJECTORIES IN THAT AREA.
AT NIGHT...CONVECTION SHOULD SHIFT TO THE COASTAL WATERS...BUT
CANNOT RULE OUT SOME CONVECTION MAKING IT JUST INLAND ACROSS COASTAL
AREAS AT TIMES. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...MAINLY
VFR...EXCEPT BRIEF FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE WITH ISOLATED
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS. SUNDAY...BACKDOOR FRONT MOVES THROUGH
WITH INCREASED MOISTURE AND CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS.
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...LOWER CHANCES FOR CONVECTION...BUT FORECAST
AT THIS RANGE IS UNCERTAIN GIVEN THE POTENTIAL FOR A TROPICAL
SYSTEM TO BE SOMEWHERE IN THE SOUTHWEST ATLANTIC. STAY TUNED TO
THE LATEST FORECASTS FROM THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT...SOUTHERLY WINDS AT 12 KT OR LESS EARLY ON WILL VEER
AROUND TO THE SW DURING THE OVERNIGHT...INCREASING UPWARDS TO 15
KT...BEFORE SWINGING AROUND TO WEST WITH LAND BREEZE CIRCULATIONS
AT 10 KT OR LESS LATE. SEAS WILL START AT 1-2 FT WITHIN 20 NM OF
SHORE AND AROUND 2 FT FURTHER OUT...BEFORE CLIMBING ABOUT A FOOT
AFTER MIDNIGHT.

NO HIGHLIGHTS EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY AS THE REGION REMAINS
BETWEEN A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE INLAND AND A WEAK ATLANTIC RIDGE
WELL TO THE SOUTHEAST. SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 15 KTS OR LESS AND
SEAS OF 3 FT OR LESS CAN BE EXPECTED. BY SATURDAY NIGHT...A BACKDOOR
FRONT MOVES IN FROM THE NORTH...THEN LIKELY JUST SOUTH OF THE WATERS
BY SUNDAY. GUIDANCE IS INDICATING WINDS INCREASING FROM THE
NORTHEAST OF 15-20 KTS. SEAS WILL BUILD LATER SUNDAY AND
MONDAY...POSSIBLY BUILDING TO 4 TO 6 FT...OR LOW END SCA LEVELS.
NORTHEAST WINDS WITH A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH WILL
PERSIST THROUGH TUESDAY. WILL NEED TO MONITOR THE POTENTIAL
DEVELOPMENT OF A TROPICAL SYSTEM...CURRENTLY NEAR THE WINDWARD
ISLANDS. LATEST MODEL CONSENSUS SHOWS THAT THIS SYSTEM COULD MOVE
INTO THE ATLANTIC...JUST EAST OF THE BAHAMAS SUNDAY...THEN POSSIBLY
STALLING SOMEWHERE WELL EAST OF THE WATERS MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THERE
IS STILL CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS EVENTUAL STRENGTH AND
TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM...SO PLEASE STAY TUNED TO THE LATEST FORECASTS
FROM THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD MAX TEMPS...

FRI 8/22...
KCHS 100 SET IN 1983
KCXM 98 SET IN 1983
KSAV 100 SET IN 1983

LAST TIME 100 DEGREES OR HIGHER...
KCHS JUNE 21 2011
KCXM JUNE 20 2011
KSAV JULY 26 2012

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
THE CHARLESTON SC WSR-88D /KCLX/ IS BACK IN SERVICE...BUT IS NOT
YET AT 100 PERCENT EFFICIENCY. CALIBRATION IS STILL BEING DONE
AND WILL CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY...AND THERE MAY BE INTERMITTENT
OUTAGES AND/OR PROBLEMS DURING THIS TIME. THUS USE WITH CAUTION.
IF NECESSARY...FOR DOPPLER RADAR COVERAGE OF SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND
SOUTH COASTAL SOUTH CAROLINA UTILIZE SURROUNDING RADARS INCLUDING
KJAX...KJGX... KVAX...KCAE AND KLTX.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...RFM
LONG TERM...JAQ
AVIATION...JAQ
MARINE...
CLIMATE...
EQUIPMENT...







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