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Area Forecast Discussion

931
FXUS62 KCHS 300138
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
938 PM EDT MON SEP 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE NORTHEAST FLORIDA COAST OVERNIGHT
AND AWAY FROM THE REGION TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD
INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...BEFORE A STRONG COLD
FRONT MOVES THROUGH FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
THEN BUILD OVER THE REGION INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
LATE MONDAY EVENING...LAST OF BANDED/CONVECTIVE RAIN WAS CLINGING TO
AREAS AROUND ALTAMAHA SOUND...JUST WEST OF A WARM FRONT POSITIONED
OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. AS SURFACE LOW PRESSURE TRACKS NORTHEAST...
THIS HEAVIER RAIN COULD PERSIST FOR A FEW MORE HOURS BUT SHOULD
GRADUALLY DIMINISH IN COVERAGE/INTENSITY AND RETREAT OFF THE
COAST AFTER THE SURFACE LOW PASSES OVERNIGHT.

THE 00Z KCHS RAOB REVEALED DEEP MOISTURE/PWATS EXCEEDING 2.1
INCHES...BUT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RADAR TRENDS DEPICTED THAT
MUCH DRIER AIR ALOFT WAS SPREADING STEADILY EASTWARD AHEAD OF A
POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER TROUGH AXIS APPROACHING THE AREA FROM THE
WEST/NORTHWEST. THUS...ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION SHOULD REMAIN
LIMITED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND OCCASIONAL DRIZZLE OVERNIGHT.

WILL CONTINUE TO ASSESS THE POTENTIAL FOR STRATUS TO LOWER TO THE
SURFACE TO CREATE AREAS OF FOG OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER...SURFACE WINDS
ARE LIKELY TO PERSIST SUFFICIENTLY TO KEEP STRATUS ABOVE THE
SURFACE...SO NO FOG IS MENTIONED WITHIN THE OVERNIGHT FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A MID AND UPPER LVL TROUGH AXIS WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE EARLY
TUESDAY...BRINGING AN END TO RAIN AS FORCING SHIFTS OFFSHORE AND IS
FOLLOWED BY DRY HIGH PRESSURE FILTERING OVER THE REGION. A RAIN-FREE
FORECAST WILL THEN REMAIN IN PLACE AS GRADUAL RIDGING OCCURS OVER
THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. THE DRYER AIR BEHIND THE TROUGH WILL
FINALLY BRING SOME SUNNY SKIES OVER THE AREA TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO
MIDWEEK FOR MOST AREAS...WITH GRADUALLY WARMING HIGH TEMPS EACH
AFTERNOON. LATEST 1000-850 MB THICKNESSES FAVOR OVERALL HIGH TEMPS
IN THE LOWER 80S ON TUESDAY WHILE LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS REMAIN OVER
THE AREA BEHIND THE DEPARTING SFC LOW OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC.
DESPITE THE DEVELOPMENT OF LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW BY MIDWEEK...WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY HIGHS SHOULD WARM INTO THE MID 80S UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES AND A DOWNSLOPING WIND COMPONENT ALOFT. TEMPS WILL BE WARMEST
AWAY FROM THE COAST. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE IN THE LOW/MID 60S
INLAND TO UPPER 60S/LOWER 70S ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IS IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE OVERALL
SYNOPTIC PATTERN...LEADING TO HIGHER THAN NORMAL CONFIDENCE IN THE
FORECAST FOR THE LONG TERM PERIOD. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL QUICKLY
ADVANCE TOWARD THE AREA FROM THE WEST THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY...PASSING THROUGH SOMETIME LATE FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.
DEEP MOISTURE AND STRONG FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE PASSING FRONT
WILL LEAD TO A GOOD CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY INTO
FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS TO
BE STRONG. A REINFORCING COLD FRONT WILL THEN DROP THROUGH FROM THE
NORTH SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...USHERING DRY AND SIGNIFICANTLY
COOLER WEATHER INTO THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VARYING DEGREES OF FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS WILL PREVAIL TONIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. AS DRIER AIR FILTERS INTO THE
REGION...OCCASIONAL VFR CEILINGS COULD DEVELOP AT KCHS AND KSAV
OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER...ANY IMPROVEMENT WOULD BE TRANSIENT...AND
IFR/LIFR CEILINGS ARE FAR MORE LIKELY THAN VFR CEILINGS INTO
TUESDAY MORNING. LATE TUESDAY MORNING INTO EARLY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON...IMPROVEMENT THROUGH MVFR TO VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST
THROUGH MUCH OF FRIDAY. FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY WITH SHOWERS AND/OR THUNDERSTORMS
ASSOCIATED WITH A PASSING COLD FRONT.

&&

.MARINE...
OVERNIGHT...A WARM FRONT WILL TEMPORARILY PRODUCE E/SE WINDS
10-15 KT OVER GA WATERS. THEN...AS SURFACE LOW PRESSURE PASSES
BY...WINDS SHOULD TURN BACK TOWARD THE NORTHEAST 15-20 KT ACROSS
GA WATERS OVERNIGHT. ELSEWHERE...ELEVATED NE WINDS AS HIGH AS
15-20 KT WILL PREVAIL. SEAS 2-4 FT WILL REMAIN COMMON...AND SEAS
AS HIGH AS 5 FT ARE POSSIBLE. ALSO...LOCALLY POOR VISIBILITY IN
HEAVY RAIN WILL PERSIST UNTIL LATER TONIGHT ACROSS GA WATERS.

TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...WE SHOULD SEE A PERIOD OF ENHANCED
NORTHERLY WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS ALONG THE BACK SIDE OF LOW
PRESSURE SHIFTING FURTHER OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC ON TUESDAY.
GENERALLY...WINDS COULD GUST AS HIGH AS 15-20 KTS WITH SEAS RANGING
BETWEEN 3-5 FT. THERE COULD EVEN BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF LOW-END SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES DURING THIS TIME...BUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW THAT
ADVISORY THRESHOLDS WILL BE MET. WINDS/SEAS WILL THEN REMAIN WELL
BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS AS HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS TO THE
WATERS THROUGH MIDWEEK. IN GENERAL...WINDS WILL REMAIN AT OR BELOW
10-15 KTS WITH SEAS NO HIGHER THAN 1-3 FT. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL THEN
STRENGTHEN ON FRIDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT...WHICH WILL PUSH
OFFSHORE FRIDAY NIGHT. OFFSHORE FLOW WILL THEN PREVAIL ON SATURDAY.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
TIDES CONTINUE TO RUN HIGHER THAN NORMAL AND GIVEN FAVORABLE
NORTH/NORTHEAST WINDS MOST OF THE TIME THE NEXT FEW DAYS TIDES
COULD REACH ADVISORY LEVELS...MAINLY AROUND CHARLESTON AND DURING
THE LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON HIGH TIDES.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
THE DOWNTOWN CHARLESTON WEATHER SENSOR AT WATERFRONT PARK /KCXM/
REMAINS OUT OF SERVICE. HOURLY OBSERVATIONS AND DAILY CLIMATE
INFORMATION WILL NOT BE AVAILABLE UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE. IT IS
UNKNOWN WHEN THE SENSOR WILL BE RETURNED TO SERVICE...BUT PARTS
ARE ON ORDER.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...SPR
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...SPR
MARINE...SPR
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
EQUIPMENT...






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