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Area Forecast Discussion

534
FXUS62 KCHS 222331
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
731 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH LATE WEEK. A
DRY COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THIS WEEKEND...FOLLOWED BY MORE
HIGH PRESSURE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
EARLY THIS EVENING...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO EXTEND INTO
THE REGION FROM THE NORTH AROUND THE LARGE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
POSITIONED OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST. WITH DEEP DRY AIR SKIES
WILL REMAIN CLEAR AND THE FORECAST IS VERY QUIET THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT. THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUE CONTINUES TO BE LOW
TEMPERATURES. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL ONLY BE ABOUT 2 MB ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT WHICH SHOULD PROMOTE GOOD RADIATIONAL
COOLING CONDITIONS AIDED BY A WEAK NORTHERLY DRAINAGE FLOW. EXPECT
LOWER 40S INLAND WITH MID TO UPPER 40S CLOSER TO THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THURSDAY...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM THE GREAT LAKES
TO THE DEEP SOUTH WILL MAINTAIN NORTHWEST FLOW AND FAIR WEATHER
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. EXPECT SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL HIGHS IN
THE LOWER 70S ON THU. LOWS WILL CONTINUE RUNNING BELOW NORMAL...
FALLING INTO THE MID 40S INLAND AND UPPER 40S/LOWER 50S CLOSER TO
THE COAST.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...DRY WEATHER WILL PERSIST INTO THE WEEKEND AS
PWAT VALUES REMAIN BELOW 0.5 INCHES. UPPER RIDGE WILL FLATTEN ON FRI
AS A SHORTWAVE MOVES OVERHEAD LATE IN THE DAY WITHIN THE CONTINUED
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. OTHER THAN SOME CIRRUS...NO SENSIBLE WEATHER
EXPECTED WITH THIS FEATURE. FRI WILL FEATURE MORE SEASONABLE HIGH
TEMPS IN THE MID 70S. AS THE LOW LEVEL FLOW ACQUIRES A MORE WESTERLY
COMPONENT...HIGHS ON SAT WILL CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 70S. LOWS ON FRI
WILL RANGE FROM THE MID/UPPER 40S INLAND TO THE LOWER/MID 50S ALONG
THE COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
GLOBAL MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH MONDAY THEN START TO
DIVERGE. A SPRAWLING DEEP LAYER RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST SUNDAY
AND THEN MOVES JUST OFF SHORE BY LATER MONDAY AS AN ANOTHER UPPER
TROUGH TAKES SHAPE OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. THIS NEXT TROUGH IS WHERE
THE MODELS DIVERGE. THE ECMWF IS SLOWER AND MORE FULL LATITUDE IN
ITS EXTENT BY TUESDAY...WHILE THE GFS IS WEAKER AND FASTER...HOLDING
THE BULK OF THE ENERGY WELL NORTH OVER THE GREAT LAKES. ODDLY...
MODELS COME BACK TO CLOSER AGREEMENT BY WEDNESDAY AS BOTH SHOW A
BROAD TROUGH/NEARLY ZONAL FLOW OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN U.S. AND A
DEEP LAYER RIDGE DEPARTING OVER THE ATLANTIC. THROUGH THIS
PERIOD...GLOBAL MODELS KEEP THE MAIN TROPICAL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED
WITH TD9...CURRENTLY OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE...WELL SOUTH OF THE
AREA.

EXPECT ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THIS PERIOD AS A DEEP LAYER
RIDGE LARGELY DOMINATES. MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...LOW LEVEL FLOW
VEERS TO SOUTHEAST...WHICH WILL HELP TO ADVECT BETTER LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE INTO THE AREA. THUS...HAVE CONTINUED TREND OF SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS FOR SHOWERS OVER MAINLY THE COASTAL AND ATLANTIC WATERS.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...EXPECT VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH
AND THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BECOME ORIENTED NORTH/SOUTH BETWEEN
THE HIGH AND THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE NEW ENGLAND COAST.
WIND SPEEDS WILL CONTINUE TO MAINLY BE IN THE 10-15 KT
RANGE...EXCEPT A SOLID 15 KT BEYOND 20 NM. SEAS 2-3 FT WITHIN 20
NM AND 3-4 FT BEYOND.

THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...EXPECT MAINLY 2-3 FT SEAS ON THU WITH
NORTH WINDS 10-15 KT. COULD SEE SOME 3-4 FT SEAS IN THE OUTER
GEORGIA WATERS EARLY THU. AS THE GRADIENT RELAXES FRI INTO SAT...
SEAS WILL SUBSIDE TO 1-2 FT WITH LIGHT OFFSHORE FLOW. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL REMAIN NORTHWEST OF THE REGION THROUGH SUNDAY...THEN SHIFT
NORTH AND EAST OF THE AREA BY MON. NO HEADLINES OVER THE WATERS
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...BSH
SHORT TERM...RFM
LONG TERM...RFM
AVIATION...BSH
MARINE...BSH/RFM




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