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Area Forecast Discussion

301
FXUS62 KCHS 280010
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
710 PM EST THU NOV 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD FROM THE WEST AND NORTHWEST TONIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN PREVAIL THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. A COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTH TUESDAY...WITH AN INLAND WEDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN ITS WAKE FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
TONIGHT...THE AXIS OF A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO
SHIFT EAST OF THE AREA...WITH SUBSIDENCE IN ITS WAKE. MEANWHILE AT
THE SURFACE...A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE
REGION FROM THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.

ADVECTION OF COLD AND DRY AIR WILL OCCUR TONIGHT BEHIND THE
DEPARTING TROUGH AXIS...RESULTING IN A COLD NIGHT. CLEAR SKIES
WILL PREVAIL...WITH A COUPLED NORTHWEST TO NORTH FLOW ALLOWING
TEMPERATURES TO FALL BELOW FREEZING ALL THE WAY TO THE US-17
CORRIDOR BY MORNING. UPPER 20S TO NEAR 30 WILL BE COMMON ACROSS
MOST INLAND AREAS...WITH WITH 33-37 ON AND NEAR THE BARRIER
ISLANDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FRIDAY...A QUIET/DRY PATTERN WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THIS WEEKEND AS
HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. TEMPS WILL
BE COLDEST ON FRIDAY AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES CENTERED OVER THE
SOUTHEAST ALONG THE BACK EDGE OF A WEAK H5 SHORTWAVE SHIFTING OFF
THE SOUTHEAST COAST. OVERALL HIGH TEMPS SHOULD RANGE IN THE LOW 50S
OVER NORTHERN AREAS TO MID 50S IN SOUTHEAST GEORGIA. STRONG
RADIATIONAL COOLING UNDER CLEAR SKIES AT NIGHT WILL LIKELY RESULT IN
FRIDAY NIGHT LOW TEMPS BETWEEN THE LOW
TO MID 30S...WITH FREEZING TEMPS INLAND.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...DEEP LAYERED DRY AIR WILL MAINTAIN A RAIN-FREE
FORECAST SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...BUT TEMPS WILL WARM AS MID/UPPER
LVL RIDGING OCCURS OVER THE AREA WHILE A LIGHT SOUTHERLY SFC FLOW
RETURNS ALONG THE WESTERN EDGE OF SFC HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTING
OFFSHORE. LATEST 1000-850 MB THICKNESS VALUES SUPPORT OVERALL HIGH
TEMPS IN THE LOW/MID 60S ON SATURDAY...THEN UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70
ON SUNDAY...WARMEST IN SOUTHEAST GEORGIA. SATURDAY NIGHT LOWS WILL
ALSO BE WARMER THAN PREVIOUS NIGHTS...IN THE UPPER 30S INLAND TO
LOW/MID 40S CLOSER TO THE COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE UNSEASONABLY WARM CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
MONDAY...WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES RISING INTO THE LOW 70S AWAY FROM
THE COAST DURING THE AFTERNOON. ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE AT THE
SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL STEADILY SHIFT EAST/SOUTHEAST THROUGH
MONDAY...AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE APPALACHIAN REGION LATE
MONDAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY. LATEST NUMERICAL MODEL SOLUTIONS
SUGGEST THE WEAKENING FRONT COULD TRANSITION INTO THE LEADING EDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING AN INLAND WEDGE FROM THE MID ATLANTIC
STATES THROUGH NORTHERN GEORGIA. NORTHEAST FLOW WITHIN THE
DEVELOPING INLAND WEDGE/COASTAL TROUGH PATTERN WILL CONTRIBUTE TO
A COOLING TREND...WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE MID TO
UPPER 60S EACH AFTERNOON TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. SLIGHT RAIN
CHANCES COULD ALSO RETURN EARLY TO MID WEEK...DEPENDING ON THE
PROGRESSION OF THE FRONT. HIGHEST CONFIDENCE IS IN ISOLATED RAIN
OVER THE MARINE ZONES AND PERHAPS THE IMMEDIATE COASTLINE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE COASTAL TROUGH ON THE PERIPHERY OF THE INLAND
RIDGE.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT KCHS AND KSAV THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT...ONGOING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE NIGHT FOR THE ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS. CONTINUED COLD
ADVECTION...A TIGHT GRADIENT ON THE EASTERN FLANK OF CONTINENTAL
HIGH PRESSURE AND STEADY ISALLOBARIC PRESSURE RISES WILL PROMOTE
MOSTLY NW AND NORTH WINDS OF 15-25 KT WITH OCCASIONAL HIGHER
GUSTS. IT/S POSSIBLE THAT WINDS IN CHARLESTON HARBOR COULD REMAIN
CLOSE TO ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH THE NIGHT...ESPECIALLY OVERNIGHT
WHEN THE BEST COLD ADVECTION OCCURS IN SYNC WITH THE STRONGEST
GEOSTROPHIC WINDS.

FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...ELEVATED WINDS/SEAS WILL LIKELY PERSIST
INTO EARLY FRIDAY WHILE COLDER AIR ADVECTS OVER THE WATERS AND AN
ENHANCED PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST. AS A
RESULT...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY CONTINUE INTO EARLY
FRIDAY UNTIL HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES MORE CENTERED ALONG THE SOUTHEAST
COAST BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. EXPECT WINDS/SEAS TO DROP BELOW SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS BY MID MORNING FRIDAY...WITH OUTER GEORGIA
WATERS HOLDING ONTO ELEVATED CONDITIONS THE LONGEST. MARINE
CONDITIONS WILL THEN CONTINUE TO IMPROVE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND REMAIN
RATHER BENIGN INTO MONDAY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES IN
RESPONSE TO HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING OVER THE WATERS. WINDS/SEAS
SHOULD INCREASE/BUILD STARTING ON TUESDAY AND COULD APPROACH SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS BY THE AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES
FROM THE WEST.

TIDES...MODERATE TO STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO DRIVE
TIDES DOWN BELOW PREDICTED LEVELS TONIGHT. ALTHOUGH NOT BLOW OUT
TIDES PER SE...DEPARTURES WILL STILL BE AS MUCH AS 1/2 TO 3/4 FT
MLLW BELOW FORECAST LEVELS. NAVIGATE WITH CARE DUE TO THE LOWER
THAN TYPICAL TIDE HEIGHTS.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST FRIDAY FOR AMZ350-352-354.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST FRIDAY FOR AMZ374.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...JAQ
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...WMS
AVIATION...JAQ
MARINE...






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