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Area Forecast Discussion

249
FXUS62 KCHS 271505
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
1105 AM EDT WED AUG 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HURRICANE CRISTOBAL WILL TRACK NORTH WELL OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST
THROUGH MID WEEK...AS DRY HIGH PRESSURE PERSISTS OVER THE REGION
THROUGH FRIDAY. ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND WESTWARD ACROSS
GEORGIA AND THE CAROLINAS DURING THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
TODAY...CLEAR SKIES PREVAIL ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA BY LATE
MORNING...AS THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES REMAINS UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF DEEP LAYER RIDGING. THE 12Z SOUNDING AT CHARLESTON
REVEALED A CONSIDERABLY DRY PROFILE...WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES BELOW 1 INCH UNSEASONABLY LOW FOR LATE AUGUST. DEWPOINT
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE 50S ACROSS INLAND AREAS
THIS AFTERNOON...SUPPORTING LOW HUMIDITY AS HIGH TEMPERATURES
REACH SEASONAL AVERAGES IN THE LOW 90S AWAY FROM THE LOCALLY
COOLER COASTLINE. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE INLAND SURFACE
HIGH AND HURRICANE CRISTOBAL WELL OFFSHORE WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN
AS THE TROPICAL SYSTEM CONTINUES TO DEPART TO THE NORTH/NORTHEAST.
NORTH WINDS WILL THUS BECOME MORE ONSHORE WITHIN A LIGHT SEA
BREEZE CIRCULATION LATER TODAY.

TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE WITH DRY CONDITIONS. LIGHT
WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES WILL MAKE FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING
ALLOWING TEMPS TO GET DOWN INTO THE LOWER TO MID 60S INLAND AND
MOSTLY LOWER 70S AT THE COAST GIVEN THE COOLER OFFSHORE
WEST/NORTHWEST FLOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A DEEP LAYERED RIDGE WILL BLANKET THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES
FROM LATE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. IN THE MID LEVELS...THE RIDGE WILL
BECOME CENTERED OVER THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. IN THE
LOWER LEVELS AND AT THE SURFACE...IT LOOKS LIKE IT WILL TAKE UNTIL
SATURDAY BEFORE ENOUGH MOISTURE ADVECTION POSES A REAL RISK FOR
ISOLATED/SCATTERED CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION.

DRY WARM WEATHER EXPECTED ON THURSDAY AS A BONE DRY DEEP LAYERED
MOISTURE COLUMN RESIDES OVER THE REGION. HIGH TEMPS MANY AREAS SHOULD
REACH THE MID 90S WITH LIGHT AND VRBL SURFACE WINDS PRIOR TO THE
LATE DAY SEA BREEZE. ON FRIDAY...DEEPER MOISTURE IS NOTED BOTH NORTH
AND SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA BUT DRY LAYERS HANG ON FOR SOUTHERN
SOUTH CAROLINA AND UPPER SE GEORGIA. ENOUGH DRY AIR ALOFT AND POOR
INSTABILITY TO KEEP POPS OUT OF THE FORECAST BUT A SPOTTY LATE DAY
SHOWER CANNOT BE TOTALLY RULED OUT ALONG THE SEA BREEZE OR NEAR THE
ALTAMAHA RIVER AREA.

ON SATURDAY...THE RIDGE EXPANDS NORTHWARD AND A SE TO S SYNOPTIC
FLOW COMPONENT WILL ALLOW MOISTURE TO BUILD NORTHWARD WITH TIME.
WILL MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WITH A SLIGHTLY MORE TYPICAL
THERMODYNAMIC PROFILE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. SOME CHANCE POPS WERE
ALSO MAINTAINED ACROSS INLAND GEORGIA ZONES AND LOCALES TO THE SOUTH
OF I-16. HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S WITH MAX HEAT INDICES
RETURNING TO THE 100-105 DEGREE RANGE IN SOME AREAS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE OVERALL
SYNOPTIC PATTERN THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S. WHILE ATLANTIC HIGH
PRESSURE PREVAILS AT THE SURFACE. A SOUTHERLY FLOW AND AN INLAND
SURFACE TROUGH WILL ALLOW SUFFICIENT MOISTURE AND CONVERGENCE TO
SUPPORT A TYPICAL LATE SUMMER PATTERN...WITH A CHANCE OF MAINLY
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY. TEMPS
SHOULD GENERALLY RUN ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH HIGHS
LOWER TO MID 90S AND LOWS IN THE 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY AT BOTH KSAV AND KCHS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MAINLY VFR. AT LEAST ISOLATED CONVECTION
POSSIBLE OVER THE WEEKEND INTO MONDAY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY AND TONIGHT...THE TIGHTENED PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN INLAND
HIGH PRESSURE AND HURRICANE CRISTOBAL FAR IN THE ATLANTIC WILL
STEADILY DIMINISH AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. SEAS WILL STILL REMAIN
ELEVATED DUE TO LINGERING SWELLS FROM THE DEPARTING
HURRICANE...AND WILL CONTINUE THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY BEYOND 20
NM THROUGH TONIGHT WITH SLOW IMPROVEMENT THROUGH THE DAY. MODERATE
NORTH FLOW WILL BECOME LIGHT ONSHORE WITHIN A WEAK SEABREEZE THIS
AFTERNOON.

THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...AN UPPER RIDGE AND WEAK LOW LEVEL PRESSURE
GRADIENTS OVER THE WATERS SUGGEST A FAIRLY TRANQUIL PERIOD FOR THE
WATERS LATE WEEK AND THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. RESIDUAL
LONG PERIOD SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE ON THURSDAY AS 4-5 FT
SEAS ACROSS THE OUTER GEORGIA WATERS LINGER BUT MAINLY 2-3 FT
WITHIN 20 NM. LIGHT DAYTIME WINDS AND 10-15 KT NOCTURNAL SURGES
FROM THE SOUTH SHOULD TYPIFY THE WEEKEND WITH SEAS 1-3 FT.

RIP CURRENTS...A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS WILL CONTINUE TODAY AS
A RESULT OF SOME ASTRONOMICAL INFLUENCES AND LINGERING SWELLS
FROM HURRICANE CRISTOBAL.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR AMZ374.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...WMS/RJB
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...RJB/
MARINE...






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