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Area Forecast Discussion

550
FXUS62 KCHS 101151
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
651 AM EST WED FEB 10 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST FROM THE LOWER GULF COAST REGION THROUGH
TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE ON THURSDAY WILL GIVE WAY TO A WEAK AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT. BEHIND THIS SYSTEM AN
ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION BY SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL THEN REMAIN IN CONTROL UNTIL EARLY NEXT WEEK WHEN THE NEXT FRONTAL
SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A CONTINENTAL POLAR AIR MASS BLANKETS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
COUNTRY TODAY AS THE BASE OF A DEEP UPPER TROUGH BOTTOMS OUT
ACROSS NORTH GEORGIA AND THE CAROLINAS BEFORE LIFTING OUT TONIGHT.
850 MB TEMPS OF -7 TO -11C ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL
YIELD A COLD DAY WITH TEMPS ONLY WARMING INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE
40S UNDER SUNNY SKIES. A FEW STRATOCU WILL MAKE IT INTO INLAND
ZONES THIS MORNING BEFORE DISSIPATING IN DOWNSLOPE. A TIGHT PRES
GRADIENT AND 30-35 KT GEOSTROPHIC WINDS WITH POTENTIAL FOR A
RATHER DEEP MIXED LAYER THIS AFTERNOON WILL RESULT IN A WINDY DAY
ACROSS THE AREA. THE FORECAST CONTINUES TO MAINTAIN CONDITIONS
BELOW WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA.

VERY DRY AND COLD AIR WILL CONTINUE TO PRESIDE OVER THE REGION
TONIGHT UNDER CLEAR SKIES. THERE WILL STILL BE GOOD PRES GRADIENT
BUT THERE ARE SIGNS THAT IT MAY TEND TO DECOUPLE A BIT LATE TO THE
SOUTH OF I-16 IN GEORGIA AND WE LOWERED MIN TEMPS A FEW DEGREES
THERE. WIND CHILLS WILL DIP INTO THE UPPER TEENS LATE TONIGHT
ACROSS SE SOUTH CAROLINA.

LAKE WINDS...CONDITIONS FAVOR A CONTINUATION OF THE LAKE WIND
ADVISORY ON LAKE MOULTRIE INTO THIS EVENING AND THE ADVISORY
SHOULD BE ABLE TO COME DOWN FOR THE OVERNIGHT AS GUSTS SUBSIDE.
CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW GUSTS TO 30 KT ON OPEN LAKE WATERS TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...ALOFT THE PATTERN WILL REMAIN
CONSISTENT AND FEATURE A PROMINENT LONGWAVE TROUGH THAT WILL GET
REINFORCED OVERNIGHT BY ADDITIONAL APPROACHING ENERGY. AT THE
SURFACE...THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE CAUGHT IN THE WEAKNESS BETWEEN
HIGH PRESSURE OVER FLORIDA AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST.
THE DAY WILL BE RELATIVELY QUIET WITH SOME INCREASING CLOUDS LATE
AND COOL TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM AROUND 50 TO THE NORTH TO UPPER
50S ALONG THE ALTAMAHA. OVERNIGHT...AS CHANNELED VORT ENERGY
APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST ALOFT...A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH AND TRACK EASTWARD TO THE
SOUTHEAST COAST. BY LATE IN THE NIGHT...MODELS SHOW VARYING
PRECIPITATION RESPONSE WITH THE SYSTEM. THE BULK OF THE SOLUTIONS
KEEP LAND AREAS PRIMARILY DRY WITH MOST OF THE MEASURABLE RAINFALL
OVER THE ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS. THE NAM SEEMS TO BE THE MAIN
HOLDOUT BY SPREADING LIGHT PRECIPITATION ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST
AREA. HAVE FAVORED THE CONSENSUS SOLUTIONS AND KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS OFFSHORE. CLOUDS WILL THICKEN THROUGH THE NIGHT AND LOWS WILL
RANGE FROM THE LOW 30S NORTH TO THE LOW 40S SOUTH.

FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PULL AWAY
FROM THE REGION FRIDAY MORNING AND THEN FOCUS TURNS TO THE MONSTER
AREA OF COLD 1046 MB HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM CANADA AND THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS HIGH WILL PUSH A STRONG ARCTIC COLD FRONT INTO
THE REGION ON SATURDAY. PLENTIFUL DRY AIR WILL ENCOMPASS THE REGION
INTO THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND AND TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
BELOW NORMAL. FRIDAY HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 50S NORTH AND LOW
60S SOUTH TO THE LOW/MID 50S ON SATURDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MODEL AGREEMENT IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD IS REASONABLY GOOD AND THE
FORECAST IS PRETTY QUIET UNTIL LATE IN THE PERIOD. THINGS START OFF
SATURDAY NIGHT WITH SOME OF THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON BEHIND THE
ARCTIC COLD FRONT. LOWS WILL DIP INTO THE LOW TO MID 20S...AND
ELEVATED OVERNIGHT WINDS WILL RESULT IN WIND CHILLS FALLING INTO THE
LOW TO MID TEENS FOR MUCH OF THE AREA SUNDAY MORNING. WILL INTRODUCE
A MENTION OF POSSIBLE WIND CHILL ADVISORY CONDITIONS IN THE
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK. THEREAFTER...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE THE
PRIMARY WEATHER FEATURE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE WEEKEND. THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND NOTEWORTHY RAINFALL
CHANCES WILL IMPACT THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A SHORTWAVE
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST AND PUSHES A DEVELOPING SYSTEM THROUGH THE
SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS LATE MONDAY. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE WELL
BELOW NORMAL ON SUNDAY...WITH A MODERATING TREND TO NEAR NORMAL
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

LAKE WINDS...ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONG WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER
LAKE MOULTRIE THIS WEEKEND. ANOTHER LAKE WIND ADVISORY COULD
EVENTUALLY BE NEEDED.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR. GUSTY OFFSHORE SURFACE WINDS ANTICIPATED TODAY AFTER MID
MORNING UNTIL NEAR SUNSET. GUSTS IN THE 25-30 KT AT TIMES ARE
LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON. SUSTAINED WINDS SHOULD TOP OUT IN THE
15-20 KT RANGE FROM 270 TO 280 DEGREES.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CEILINGS IS
POSSIBLE FRIDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH...OTHERWISE
VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TODAY WITH GALES
OVER OFFSHORE WATERS ATOP WARMER OCEAN TEMPS NEARING THE GULF
STREAM. LATEST GUIDANCE SHOWS THAT GUSTS MAY DIMINISH SOMEWHAT
OVER 20-60 NM GEORGIA WATERS THIS AFTERNOON AND WHILE CONDITIONS
APPEAR GOOD FOR JETTING...WE SUSPECT FREQUENT GUSTS TO GALES WILL
BE ON THE WANE TOWARD LATE AFTERNOON. THE GALE WARNING CONTINUES
FOR AMZ374 THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. SEAS WILL RANGE FROM A CHOPPY 3
FT CLOSE TO SHORE TO 5 TO 8 FT BEYOND 20 NM.

DESPITE A DECREASE IN COLD AIR ADVECTION TONIGHT...WINDS WILL STILL
FAVOR GOOD OFFSHORE JETTING AND WE MAINTAINED ADVISORIES THROUGH THE
NIGHT FOR ALL NEAR SHORE WATERS AND AN ADVISORY FOR THE OUTER GEORGIA
WATERS WILL ALSO BE IN EFFECT ONCE THE GALE WARNING IS LOWERED.

THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL WEAKEN ACROSS THE
REGION ON THURSDAY AND A WEAK ARE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PUSH THROUGH
THE WATERS THROUGH FRIDAY. OVERALL CONDITIONS WILL BE QUIET THROUGH
THIS TIME...THOUGH WINDS COULD APPROACH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
THRESHOLDS OVER THE OUTER GEORGIA WATERS FRIDAY AS THE LOW PULLS
AWAY. THE MAIN FOCUS WILL BE WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE STRONG ARCTIC
COLD FRONT SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. WINDS AND SEAS WILL INCREASE
BEHIND THE FRONT AND ADVISORIES WILL ALMOST CERTAINLY BE NEEDED
SATURDAY THROUGH MUCH OF SUNDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY WITH 30 TO 35 MPH
GUSTS OVER INTERIOR PORTIONS AND MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY AS LOW
AS 25-27 PERCENT. FIRE WEATHER AGENCIES INDICATED FUEL MOISTURE
WAS TOO HIGH TO WARRANT A RED FLAG WARNING AND WE HAVE OPTED TO
FOREGO ANY FIRE DANGER STATEMENTS AT THIS TIME GIVEN THE BRIEF
WINDOW FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT CONDITIONS ALONG WITH THE DAMP/COLD
FUELS.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
A STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW WILL PRODUCE BLOW OUT TIDES NEAR AND DURING
EACH LOW TIDE CYCLE THROUGH TONIGHT.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR SCZ045.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST THURSDAY FOR AMZ350-352-
     354.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 5 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR AMZ374.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR AMZ330.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...BSH
LONG TERM...BSH
AVIATION...
MARINE...BSH
FIRE WEATHER...
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...



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