« Back
NWS Peachtree City, Ga » Text Product » CHS Area Forecast Discussion


Printer-friendly Version
Current Version              Previous Versions:   1  2  3  4  5  6  7  8  9  

Area Forecast Discussion

862
FXUS62 KCHS 171514
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
1014 AM EST WED DEC 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND INTO THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT AND LINGER
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE GULF COAST
FRIDAY AND TRACK UP THE SOUTHEAST COAST THIS WEEKEND. UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS WILL THEN PREVAIL EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A MORE SIGNIFICANT
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS WEST OF THE REGION BY THE MIDDLE OF
THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXPAND INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST
TODAY...WHILE NEARLY ZONAL FLOW REMAINS ALOFT. GIVEN LITTLE MOISTURE
AND SUBSIDENCE NOTED IN MODEL SOUNDINGS...DRY WEATHER WILL PREVAIL.
THERE WILL BE LITTLE IN THE WAY OF CLOUD COVER WITH THE EXCEPTION
OF A FEW PASSING HIGH CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER JET.
TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL REACH A COUPLE DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...WITH
HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE LOW TO MID 60S.

TEMPS SHOULD FALL OFF FAIRLY QUICKLY AFTER SUNSET WITH READINGS
DIPPING INTO THE UPPER 40S EARLY THIS EVENING. TEMPS MAY LEVEL OUT
LATE AS MODELS INDICATE AN INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDS FROM THE WEST
PRIOR TO DAYBREAK. WE TWEAKED A FEW LOW TEMPS DOWN INTO THE MID
30S OVER TYPICALLY COLD INLAND LOCATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...NEARLY ZONAL FLOW WILL PREVAIL ALOFT
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE SOUTHEAST FROM THE NORTH. OVERALL
THIS WILL BE THE QUIET PERIOD OF THE SHORT TERM AS PROMINENT DRY AIR
IN THE 5-15 KFT LAYER WILL KEEP THE FORECAST RAIN FREE. WE WILL
LIKELY BE DEALING WITH A DECENT AMOUNT OF JET INDUCED CIRRUS WHICH
WILL LIMIT INSOLATION A BIT. HIGHS IN THE LOW 60S STILL LOOK
REASONABLE. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL DIP INTO THE UPPER 30S
INLAND...RANGING TO LOW/MID 40S AT THE COAST.

FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...THE FORECAST WILL BECOME MORE INTERESTING
AS A SHORTWAVE MOVES OUT OF THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND SHIFTS ACROSS
THE THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS AND EVENTUALLY EAST OF THE MID
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS SHORTWAVE WILL DRIVE THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SURFACE LOW ALONG THE GULF COAST WHICH WILL EVENTUALLY TRACK
EASTWARD ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH. THE MOST SIGNIFICANT MOISTENING OF
THE ATMOSPHERE WILL TAKE PLACE VERY LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY
MORNING. AS THIS MOISTENING TAKES PLACE...EXCELLENT FORCING
ASSOCIATED WITH THE MID/UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL OVERSPREAD THE
AREA WITH LOW LEVEL ISENTROPIC LIFT INCREASING. FRIDAY CONTINUES TO
LOOK DRY...WITH THE ONSET OF PRECIPITATION OCCURRING FROM THE WEST
SOMETIME LATE FRIDAY NIGHT. THE MAIN TIME PERIOD FOR PRECIPITATION
WILL BE SATURDAY WITH A WELL DEVELOPED COLD AIR DAMMING WEDGE
SETTLING IN. POPS CONTINUE TO BE IN THE  LIKELY RANGE FOR MOST OF THE
FORECAST AREA...WITH SOME HIGH END LIKELIES AS WELL. ONE OF THE
TRICKIER FORECAST PARAMETERS WILL BE SATURDAY HIGH TEMPERATURES.
WITH PLENTIFUL CLOUD COVER AND ONGOING PRECIPITATION...A SMALL
DIURNAL RANGE IS EXPECTED FOR SATURDAY. SATURDAY/S TEMPERATURES WILL
FEATURE A LIMITED DIURNAL RANGE AND HIGHS HAVE BEEN COOLED
SIGNIFICANTLY. EXPECT HIGHS TO STRUGGLE TO REACH THE LOW 50S
INLAND...RANGING TO UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60 CLOSER TO THE COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
EVEN AS OVERALL FORECAST CONFIDENCE HAS INCREASED A BIT...THE
OVERALL COMPLEXITY OF THE PATTERN HAS INCREASED AS WELL. GENERALLY
SPEAKING...THE EARLY TO MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK LOOKS QUITE
UNSETTLED AND ACTIVE AS A DEEP AND SIGNIFICANT MID/UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH CARVES OUT ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
THE SURFACE LOW THAT IMPACTS THE AREA ON SATURDAY WILL SLOWLY DRIFT
AWAY ON SUNDAY THOUGH RESIDUAL MOISTURE WILL LINGER ACROSS THE
REGION. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL INCREASE AS THE WEEK PROGRESSES
AND ISENTROPIC LIFT EXPANDS. THEN TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK...THE DEEPENING UPPER TROUGH WILL PROMOTE THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
DEEP SURFACE LOW ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. PRECIPITATION CHANCES
ARE NEEDED THROUGH WEDNESDAY. DRIER AIR WILL FINALLY WORK IN FROM
THE WEST THEREAFTER. IN ADDITION TO THE PERIOD OF WET WEATHER
TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR AT KSAV/KCHS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY.

INCREASING CHANCES FOR SUB-VFR CONDITIONS BEGINNING FRIDAY
NIGHT/SATURDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH SUNDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH FROM THE GULF COAST.

&&

.MARINE...
THROUGH TONIGHT...HIGH PRES ALONG WITH A WEAK THERMAL/MOISTURE
GRADIENT IS ON TAP. THIS SETUP FAVORS WIND SPEEDS MAINLY LESS THAN
10 KT AND SEAS 1-2 FT. THE LAND/SEA INTERFACE CAN EXPECT SOME
VARIABLE DIRECTIONS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN ACROSS THE
LOCAL WATERS THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. THEN OVER THE WEEKEND...AN
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK UP THE SOUTHEAST COAST. WINDS/SEAS
WILL BE QUITE BENIGN THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...WELL BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVELS. SATURDAY WILL THEN BRING ABOUT PERIODS OF VARIABLE
WINDS AS THE CENTER OF THE SURFACE LOW PASSES THROUGH. THEN BY
SUNDAY...AN IMPROVING NORTHEAST GRADIENT WILL RESULT IN A MODEST
INCREASE IN THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW. OVERALL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...ECT
SHORT TERM...BSH
LONG TERM...BSH
AVIATION...
MARINE...BSH






USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.