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Area Forecast Discussion

FXUS62 KCHS 250438

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston SC
1238 AM EDT SAT JUN 25 2016

A cold front to the north will approach tonight, stalling across
the region Saturday and dissipating Sunday into Monday. Another
front will impact the area beginning on Tuesday and will become
nearly stationary in the vicinity through the middle of next week.


Conditions will remain relatively tranquil, albeit unseasonably
warm and humid the remainder of the night. A little ground fog
where it rained last evening, but no significant visibility
restrictions will occur. Skies will average out to be partly
cloudy ahead of a cold front to the north, with a south-southwest
synoptic flow to produce lows only down into the mid and upper 70s
for most of us.


Saturday...The day will start off fairly warm with a west/northwest
downsloping wind that helps keep a seabreeze pinned near the coast.
Strong sfc heating along with deepening moisture ahead of an
approaching cold front from the north/northwest should support heat
index values between 105-108 degrees over most areas. A Heat
Advisory is now in effect from 11am-7pm on Saturday for southeast
Georgia and a few locations in coastal South Carolina where
afternoon temps peak in the mid to upper 90s. Some questions in
regards to cloud cover and peak temps will keep the rest of
southeast South Carolina out of the Heat Advisory for now. However,
should convective activity and cloud cover hold off until early
afternoon hours, a Heat Advisory will likely be needed for much of
southeast South Carolina as well.

As we head into early to mid afternoon hours the main weather
concern will be the possibility of severe weather from pulse type
thunderstorms. Mid-lvl ridging will gradually retreat to the deep
south as a series of h5 shortwaves rounds its eastern periphery over
the southeastern United States. The setup will favor an unstable
atmosphere along and ahead of a sfc cold front approaching from the
north/northwest during the afternoon. Although shear is marginal,
SBCAPE ranging between 1500-2500 J/kg, DCAPE between 1200-1600 J/kg,
lifted index values between -6 to -8 C along with modest mid lvl
lapse rates and PWATS around 2.0 inches support scattered to
numerous thunderstorms, some of which could produce strong and
damaging wind gusts. At this time, strong to severe thunderstorms
are possible beginning early afternoon in southeast South Carolina
and mid/late afternoon in southeast Georgia as the cold front shifts
slowly southward over the region.

Sunday and Monday...A cold front will drift southward over parts of
southeast Georgia before stalling and gradually dissipating early
next week. However, the atmosphere will remain fairly unstable where
deeper moisture and strong sfc heating coincide along and south of
the weakening front. For this reason, a slight chance to chance of
showers and thunderstorms will remain in the forecast on Sunday with
highest chances in southeast Georgia. By Monday, mid lvl energy
appears to shift south of the area and a lull in moisture is
apparent, thus only a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms
will remain in the forecast. Overall high temps should be slightly
cooler than previous days to start off the week. In general,
afternoon temps should peak in the upper 80s to lower 90s each day.
Overnight lows should range in the mid to upper 70s.


The main forecast feature to watch in the long term period will be a
front currently progged to approach the area from the west/northwest
on Tuesday and then become nearly stationary in the vicinity of the
forecast area through Thursday. This set up, especially with the
gradual breakdown of the eastern extent of the upper ridge, will
favor increased diurnal convective activity through the middle of
the week. For now pops are generally advertised in the 40 percent
chance range, but this may increase as the time approaches and
confidence grows in which particular forecast periods could be the
most active. Temperatures will remain nearly steady state featuring
low 90s for highs and mid 70s for lows.


Periodic flight restrictions are possible Saturday afternoon at
the CHS terminal and Saturday evening at the SAV terminal for
showers/thunderstorms, but confidence is too low to include in the
tafs at this time.

Extended Aviation Outlook: Flight restrictions are possible with
Sunday afternoon/evening showers and thunderstorms at the CHS and
SAV terminals. Flight restrictions possible again on Tuesday.


Tonight: The waters will be positioned between Atlantic high
pressure and a cold front approaching from the north. The front
is expected to remain north of the waters through sunrise. A
tightened pressure gradient and developing low level jet will keep
southwest winds in the 15-20 kt range, 15 kt or less in Charleston
Harbor. Seas of 3-4 feet.

Saturday through Wednesday: A cold front will approach the waters
from the north on Saturday and slowly shift southward before
dissipating late Sunday into Monday. The strongest winds through the
period are expected to occur Saturday and Sunday along and ahead of
cold front. Southwest winds up to 15-20 kt will be possible on
Saturday with another period of modest flow on Sunday during fropa.
For now it does not appear that conditions will warrant any Small
Craft Advisories, but we could potentially see wind gusts around 25
kt in northern SC waters and offshore GA waters until fropa occurs.
Thereafter, south to southwest flow will prevail with winds no
stronger than 15 knots through early next week. Seas will be highest
over the weekend, generally 2-4 feet which will then diminish to 1-3
ft for early next week.


Record High Minimum for June 24th...
KCHS...79 set in 1998.


GA...Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 7 PM EDT this evening
     for GAZ087-088-099>101-114>119-137>141.
SC...Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 7 PM EDT this evening
     for SCZ047-048-051.



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