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Area Forecast Discussion

758
FXUS62 KCHS 221644
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
1244 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO GEORGIA AND SOUTH CAROLINA TODAY AND
THEN DOMINATE INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1230 PM WEDNESDAY...NO CHANGES WERE NECESSARY TO THE GOING
FORECAST FOR THIS UPDATE...AS WEATHER CONDITIONS REMAIN FAIRLY
QUIET. WITH A COLD FRONT WELL OFFSHORE...THE FORECAST AREA REMAINS
WEDGED BETWEEN LOW PRESSURE OFF THE NORTHEAST COAST AND HIGH
PRESSURE ACROSS THE MIDWEST...ALLOWING FOR NORTH-NORTHWEST FLOW TO
PERSIST. AS A RESULT...COOL AND DRY AIR IN PLACE WILL CONTINUE TO
INFILTRATE INTO THE AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD. WITH NEARLY CLEAR
SKIES AND PLENTY OF SUNSHINE...TEMPERATURES ATTM HAVE WARMED UP TO
THE LOWER 60S...WITH SOME AREAS IN SOUTHEAST GEORGIA IN THE MID TO
UPPER 60S. TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY CLIMB A FEW MORE DEGREES THROUGH
THIS AFTERNOON MAKING HIGHS FOR TODAY IN THE LOWER 70S.

INTO THE EVENING HOURS...WINDS WILL DECREASE TO LIGHT AND VARIABLE
ALONG THE COAST WHILE INLAND AREAS WILL SEE NEARLY CALM WINDS. THIS
COMBINED WITH NEARLY CLEAR SKIES...CONDITIONS WILL BE IDEAL FOR
RADIATIONAL COOLING ALLOWING FOR TEMPERATURES TO COOL QUICKLY
OVERNIGHT. EXPECT LOWER 40S INLAND...WITH MID TO UPPER 40S TO
LOWER 50S AS YOU MOVE TOWARDS THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
THURSDAY...A DEEP LAYER RIDGE...CENTERED FROM THE GREAT LAKES SOUTHWARD
TO THE GULF COAST...WILL BE THE DOMINANT FEATURE. AT THE SURFACE...LIGHT
NORTH-NORTHWEST WINDS.THERE COULD BE A WEAK SEA BREEZE RIGHT AT THE
COAST BY LATE AFTERNOON. THE COOLEST TEMPERATURES OF THIS PERIOD WITH
HIGHS ONLY IN THE LOWER 70S AND LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S INLAND
TO THE LOWER 50S AT THE COAST.

FRIDAY...GLOBAL MODELS ALREADY HAVE SOME DIFFERENCES WITH THE
EVOLUTION OF THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH THAT MOVES DOWN IN THE UPPER
LEVEL NORTHWEST FLOW. THE ECMWF SEEMS TO BE THE OUTLIER WITH
PRODUCING A MUCH STRONGER SHORT WAVE THAT APPROACHES THE REGION BY
LATE DAY...WITH THE NAM AND THE GFS MUCH WEAKER/BROAD AND FURTHER NORTH.
HAVE GONE WITH THE WEAKER SOLUTIONS AND KEPT OUT ANY MENTION OF
PRECIP. AGAIN...LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BE LIGHT NORTHWEST...WITH A LATE
DAY SEA BREEZE POSSIBLE NEAR THE COAST. NOTE: SEA BREEZES ARE
GETTING MORE DIFFICULT GIVEN TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE
LAND AND WATER ARE BECOMING LESS...EVEN WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 70S.
FRIDAY NIGHT...LIGHT NORTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WITH A SURFACE RIDGE
NORTHWEST OF THE AREA OVER THE TN RIVER VALLEY. EXPECT TEMPS TO
RADIATE DOWN TO THE MID 40S INLAND AND LOWER 50S COAST.

SATURDAY...CONTINUED BROAD NORTHWEST UPPER LEVEL FLOW WITH A SURFACE
RIDGE CENTERED WEST-NORTHWEST OF THE AREA. UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS/TEMPS
MODERATE SOME. THUS...EXPECT SLIGHTLY WARMER MAX TEMPS IN THE MID TO
UPPER 70S WITH SUNNY SKIES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
GLOBAL MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH MONDAY THEN START TO
DIVERGE. A SPRAWLING DEEP LAYER RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST SUNDAY
AND THEN MOVES JUST OFF SHORE BY LATER MONDAY AS AN ANOTHER UPPER
TROUGH TAKES SHAPE OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. THIS NEXT TROUGH IS WHERE
THE MODELS DIVERGE. THE ECMWF IS SLOWER AND MORE FULL LATITUDE IN
ITS EXTENT BY TUESDAY...WHILE THE GFS IS WEAKER AND FASTER...HOLDING
THE BULK OF THE ENERGY WELL NORTH OVER THE GREAT LAKES. ODDLY...
MODELS COME BACK TO CLOSER AGREEMENT BY WEDNESDAY AS BOTH SHOW A
BROAD TROUGH/NEARLY ZONAL FLOW OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN U.S. AND A
DEEP LAYER RIDGE DEPARTING OVER THE ATLANTIC. THROUGH THIS
PERIOD...GLOBAL MODELS KEEP THE MAIN TROPICAL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED
WITH TD9...CURRENTLY OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE...WELL SOUTH OF THE
AREA.

EXPECT ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THIS PERIOD AS A DEEP LAYER
RIDGE LARGELY DOMINATES. MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...LOW LEVEL FLOW
VEERS TO SOUTHEAST...WHICH WILL HELP TO ADVECT BETTER LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE INTO THE AREA. THUS...HAVE CONTINUED TREND OF SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS FOR SHOWERS OVER MAINLY THE COASTAL AND ATLANTIC WATERS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 18Z...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD.  THE ONLY
ISSUE WILL BE WINDS THROUGH ABOUT SUNSET WITH NW WINDS OF 10 TO 15
KT AND GUSTS AOA 20 KT.  WINDS WILL SUBSIDE TO ABOUT 5 KT AFTER
SUNSET.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...EXPECT VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...
AS OF 1230 PM WEDNESDAY...NO CHANGES WERE NECESSARY TO THE GOING
FORECAST...THUS PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:

TODAY...A DRY COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EAST OVER THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC...RESULTING IN A FAIR AMOUNT OF COLD AIR ADVECTION
OVER THE COASTAL WATERS LATE THIS MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
FROM THE NORTHWEST. AS A RESULT...WINDS/SEAS WILL BE ENHANCED
THROUGH LATE MORNING WITH NORTH/NORTHWEST WINDS RANGING BETWEEN
15-20 KTS AND SEAS BETWEEN 3-5 FT...HIGHEST IN OFFSHORE GEORGIA
WATERS. THERE IS A CHANCE WE COULD SEE A PERIOD OF OCCASIONAL 25 KT
WIND GUSTS OVER NORTHERN SC WATERS AND OFFSHORE WATERS THROUGH LATE
MORNING...BUT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE NOT ANTICIPATED. WINDS AND
SEAS WILL STEADILY IMPROVE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT WHILE THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT SLIGHTLY RELAXES OVER THE WATERS.

THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN NORTHWEST OF
THE REGION THROUGH SUNDAY THEN SHIFT TO NORTH AND EAST OF THE AREA
BY LATER MONDAY. NO HIGHLIGHTS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK WITH WINDS 15 KT OR LESS AND SEAS 4 FT OR LESS.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...SGL.ILM
SHORT TERM...RFM.CHS
LONG TERM...RFM.CHS
AVIATION...RN.ILM
MARINE...SGL.ILM...DPB/RFM.CHS






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