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Area Forecast Discussion

386
FXUS62 KCHS 231931
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
331 PM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
TONIGHT...THE DEEP UPPER RIDGE ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO AMPLIFY AND
ROTATE EASTWARD AROUND THE CENTER OF THE ANTICYCLONE CENTERED JUST
OFF THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BECOME
INCREASINGLY ELONGATED WEST TO EAST AS IT SLIPS OFF THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO DRIVE A BROAD LOW LEVEL EASTERLY
ONSHORE FLOW ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THERE IS EVEN A HINT OF A
DEVELOPING WEAK COASTAL TROUGH ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST. GIVEN THE
MAINTENANCE OF THE PRESSURE GRADIENT...MOST AREAS WILL NOT BE ABLE
TO FULLY DECOUPLE OVERNIGHT. WE WILL STILL SEE SOME LOW 60S
INLAND...BUT PERSISTENT NEAR SURFACE WINDS WILL RESULT IN ENOUGH
MIXING TO KEEP TEMPERATURES RIGHT ALONG THE COAST ELEVATED AND IN
THE MID TO UPPER 60S. TIME HEIGHTS AND SOUNDINGS SHOW INCREASING LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE THANKS TO THE LONG FETCH EASTERLY FLOW...AND WE WILL
LIKELY SEE MORE IN THE WAY OF STRATOCUMULUS PUSH ON SHORE. CLOSER TO
DAYBREAK...SKIES MAY BE PARTLY CLOUDY AS OPPOSED TO MOSTLY CLEAR.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING WILL PREVAIL
THIS PERIOD AND WITH LIMITED MOISTURE/FORCING IN PLACE RAIN CHANCES
WILL BE LOW. ON SUNDAY THE BEST CHANCES WILL BE ACROSS SOUTHEAST
GEORGIA WHERE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE A BIT GREATER AND THE
NORTHERN END OF A POSSIBLE COASTAL TROUGH OFFSHORE COULD REACH. SOME
SHOWERS COULD LINGER SUN NIGHT AND PUSH INTO SC SOUTH OF BEAUFORT
ALONG THE TROUGH. FOR MONDAY THE BEST RAIN CHANCES WILL BE DEPENDENT
ON THE TROUGH POSITION WHICH SHOULD BE PUSHING NORTH OF
CHARLESTON...BUT WILL GENERALLY BE ACROSS INLAND AREAS AS THE SEA
BREEZE PUSHES THROUGH IN THE AFTERNOON. BY TUESDAY THE BEST RAIN
CHANCES SHOULD AGAIN BE INLAND ALONG THE PROGRESSIVE SEA BREEZE.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL SUNDAY BEFORE
CLIMBING TO OR EVEN SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL MONDAY/TUESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A WEAK UPPER RIDGE WILL PERSIST OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES WHILE A
WEAK UPPER TROUGH SITS TO THE WEST AND A LARGE CLOSED UPPER LOW
EXISTS NEAR BERMUDA. A WEAK SURFACE HIGH WILL BUILD DOWN THE EASTERN
SEABOARD...KEEPING DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S. A SLIGHTLY
WEAKER CAP OVER INLAND AREAS WILL SUPPORT ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS
DURING THE AFTERNOON WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. THEREAFTER THE UPPER
RIDGE WILL REBUILD OVER THE AREA...SUPPRESSING CONVECTION AND LIKELY
YIELDING A DRY WEEKEND. TEMPS WILL WARM THROUGH THE UPPER 80S INTO
THE LOWER 90S LATE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY. EASTERLY WINDS
WILL BE GUSTY THROUGH SUNSET. LATE TONIGHT...STRATOCUMULUS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND PUSH ONSHORE. THERE IS A VERY LOW END
CHANCE FOR BRIEF MVFR CEILINGS AT KSAV...BUT IF A CEILING DOES
DEVELOP IT WILL MOST LIKELY BE VFR AND SHORT LIVED.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH
MID WEEK...MAINLY AT KSAV LATE NIGHT THROUGH AROUND NOON EACH DAY.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO SIT OFF THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST AND WILL DRIVE THE PERSISTENT EASTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE LOCAL
WATERS. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS MODESTLY TIGHT...AND THIS WILL
KEEP WINDS IN THE 15-20 KT RANGE EVERYWHERE OUTSIDE OF THE
CHARLESTON HARBOR. THE LONG FETCH EASTERLY FLOW WILL HELP TO
GRADUALLY BUILD SEAS AS WELL. BY LATE TONIGHT...EXPECT 3-5 FT OUT TO
20 NM...AND 5-6 FT BEYOND. AS A RESULT OF 6 FT SEAS BEYOND 40 NM IN
THE OUTER GEORGIA WATERS...A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED
STARTING LATE TONIGHT. MODELS SHOW A BIT OF A DEVELOPING COASTAL
TROUGH THROUGH THE NIGHT...AND THERE IS A LOW CHANCE FOR SOME SHOWER
DEVELOPMENT IN THE OUTER REACHES OF THE OUTER GEORGIA WATERS.
PROBABILITY OF SHOWERS IS TOO LOW TO MENTION IN THE FORECAST AT THIS
POINT.

SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE TO PERSIST KEEPING
A SOLID ONSHORE FLOW THROUGH THE PERIOD. CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN A
BIT WORSE THAN NORMAL GIVEN THE ENHANCED PRESSURE GRADIENT AND
PERSISTENT FETCH...LIKELY REACHING ADVISORY LEVELS BEYOND 20 NM
THROUGH SUN NIGHT. CHARLESTON HARBOR MAY ALSO SEE MARGINAL ADVISORY
CONDITIONS WITH GUSTS NEAR 25 KT SUNDAY AND POSSIBLY MONDAY AS THE
SEA BREEZE HELPS INCREASE WINDS NEAR THE COAST.

RIP CURRENTS...STRONG ONSHORE WINDS AND SOME LOWER PERIOD SWELL
ENERGY ARE EXPECTED AT THE COAST SUNDAY AND WE DECIDED TO LEAN
TOWARD A MODERATE RISK FOR ALL BEACHES GIVEN THE RIP CURRENT REPORTS
FROM TODAY AND HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 AM SUNDAY TO 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
     AMZ374.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...BSH
SHORT TERM...RJB
LONG TERM...JRL
AVIATION...BSH
MARINE...BSH/RJB



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