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Area Forecast Discussion

889
FXUS62 KCHS 021743
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
143 PM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STATIONARY FRONT WILL REMAIN NEAR THE COAST THROUGH MONDAY WHILE A
WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES NORTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY BEFORE AN INLAND
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL DROP
INTO THE AREA NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
MAIN CHANGE WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST WAS TO INCREASE RAIN
CHANCES OVER SOUTH CAROLINA BASED ON THE LATEST RADAR IMAGERY.

A STATIONARY FRONT ACROSS THE AREA WILL LINGER PROVIDING A FOCUS
FOR SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS TODAY...MAINLY SOUTH AND EAST
OF THE BOUNDARY OVER COASTAL SC AND MUCH OF SOUTHEAST GA WHERE THE
DEEPER MOISTURE IS FOUND. RAIN SHOULD GENERALLY TRANSITION INLAND
LATER THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE SEA BREEZE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SC.
HIGHS WILL BE TEMPERED BY THE ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER TO START OFF
BUT SHOULD STILL MAKE IT INTO THE MID 90S FAR INLAND AND CLOSER TO
90 ELSEWHERE EXCEPT UPPER 80S AT THE COAST...POSSIBLY ONLY MID 80S
ALONG THE GA COAST.

THE SURFACE LOW ALONG THE BIG BEND IS FORECAST TO LIFT INTO SE
GEORGIA TONIGHT WHILE A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT LINGERS ACROSS THE
REGION. THIS LOW IS EXPECTED TO PUMP LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INTO
ADJACENT ATLC WATERS WHILE DEEP LAYERED MOISTURE ADVECTION IS ALSO
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG COASTAL SOUTH CAROLINA TONIGHT...
EVIDENCED BY A SURGE OF PWATS OVER 2 INCHES. WE INCREASED POPS
ALONG THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST TONIGHT INTO THE CHANCE RANGE AS
DEEPER MOISTURE MOVES IN FROM THE S. INLAND AREAS OF GEORGIA WILL
BE MAINLY RAIN-FREE OVERNIGHT BUT WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR AREAS
OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG ONCE AGAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MONDAY...WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGHING OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES WILL
HELP MAINTAIN THE STALLED FRONT JUST OFF THE COAST WHILE ALLOWING A
WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE TO MOVE NORTHEAST ALONG IT. BOTH THE 00Z GFS
AND ECMWF SHOW THE FRONT BUCKLING TO THE NORTHWEST OVER SOUTHERN SC
DURING THE DAY MONDAY...SPREADING THE TROPICAL AIRMASS INTO OUR
SOUTHERN TWO THIRDS AND ENHANCING RAIN CHANCES. BY LATE DAY THE
SHORTWAVE BEGINS TO LIFT OUT WHICH WILL PUSH THE FRONTAL SYSTEM
FARTHER OFF THE COAST. THUS...THERE IS A WINDOW OF TIME MIDDAY INTO
EARLY AFTERNOON WHEN WE HAVE INCREASING RAIN CHANCES ALL BUT INLAND
AREAS. CLOUDS AND ONSHORE FLOW WILL PRODUCE HIGH TEMPS AROUND 90
CLOSER TO THE COAST WITH MID 90S FAR INLAND.

TUESDAY...A RELATIVELY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT AND SIGNIFICANT DRYING IN
LOW AND MID LEVELS (PWATS DROPPING BELOW 1.5") SHOULD KEEP MOST
AREAS HOT AND DRY. WE RETAINED A SLIGHT CHANCE POP ALONG THE COAST
WHERE THE SEA BREEZE WILL BE PINNED FOR PART OF THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS
WILL REACH THE MID TO UPPER 90S AWAY FROM THE COAST.

WEDNESDAY...THE ZONAL FLOW GRADUALLY SHIFTS TO A WEAK TROUGH PATTERN
AND LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE BEGINS TO INCREASE FROM THE SOUTHWEST. PWATS
WILL PUSH BACK ABOVE 1.5" IN THE AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH A CONSIDERABLE
CAP WILL CONTINUE TO EXIST...BETTER LOW-LEVEL THETA-E SHOULD SUPPORT
ISOLATED SHOWERS/TSTMS. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 90S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A RELATIVELY WET PATTERN IS ANTICIPATED WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY AS A LONGWAVE TROUGH TAKES SHAPE IN THE UPPER LEVELS. A
PRONOUNCED LEE TROUGH WILL DEVELOP LATE WEEK...THEN A COLD FRONT
WILL DROP INTO THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND. PWATS SURGE BACK ABOVE 2"
LATE WEEK WITH VALUES APPROACHING 2.3" SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT.
WE SHOW INCREASING POPS DURING MUCH OF THE PERIOD...ESPECIALLY
DURING DAYTIME HOURS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MODERATED BY LOWER
HEIGHTS AND GREATER CLOUD COVER...THUS HIGHS WILL MAINLY REACH NO
HIGHER THAN THE LOWER 90S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THIS AFTERNOON OUTSIDE SHOWERS/TSTMS
WHICH ARE MOST LIKELY THROUGH ABOUT 20-22Z BEFORE MOST OF THE
CONVECTION LIKELY SHIFTS INLAND WITH THE SEA BREEZE. EARLIER RAINS
HAVE STABILIZED CONDITIONS NEAR KSAV SO WE LEFT MENTION OF TS OUT
OF THE 18Z TAFS...ALTHOUGH CAN/T COMPLETELY RULE IT OUT.

MAINLY VFR TONIGHT BUT ADDITIONAL LOW CLOUDS AND SHOWERS/POSSIBLE
TSTMS NEAR THE COAST ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE
ACROSS THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE TRACKS NORTHEAST INTO SOUTHEAST
GEORGIA ALONG A STATIONARY FRONT.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...LOW CHANCES FOR DIRECT IMPACTS FROM
AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. ALSO LOW CHANCES FOR
PERIODS OF STRATUS/FOG AROUND SUNRISE.

&&

.MARINE...
THE LINGERING WEAK FRONT WILL PERSIST MAINLY INLAND FROM THE
WATERS THROUGH TONIGHT BUT THERE IS SOME CHANCE IT SAGS OVER
THE FAR NORTHERN SOUTH CAROLINA WATERS AT SOME POINT THIS
MORNING. AN ENHANCED LOW LEVEL JET ON THE EASTERN FLANKS OF
THE SURFACE LOW PRES OVER THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE WITH MAINTAIN 15
KT TO 20 KT WINDS OVER GEORGIA WATERS THROUGH TONIGHT. SEAS WILL
BUILD TO NEAR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA OVER WATERS BEYOND 20
NM TONIGHT UNLESS WIDESPREAD CONVECTION OFFSHORE SCRAMBLES THE
LARGE SCALE SYNOPTIC WIND FIELDS.

SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BE THE RULE OVER THE WATERS MONDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY. NIGHTTIME SURGES TO 15-20 KT EXPECTED WHILE DURING THE
DAYTIME THE MAIN SURGE WILL BE ALONG THE COAST WITH THE SEA BREEZE.
IT LOOKS LIKE A SOLID 15 KT SEA BREEZE MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY DUE
TO PREVAILING ONSHORE FLOW AND HOT TEMPS OCCURRING OVER LAND.
ALTHOUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD WILL FEATURE SEAS AT OR BELOW 4 FT... WE
MAY NEED A SMALL CRAFT FOR THE OFFSHORE GA WATERS ON MONDAY DUE TO
SOME 6 FT SEAS BRIEFLY BUILDING THERE.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
TIDES WILL REMAIN HIGHER THAN NORMAL THROUGH EARLY WEEK...POSSIBLY
GETTING CLOSE TO ADVISORY LEVELS IN CHARLESTON HARBOR DURING THE
HIGH TIDE TONIGHT. THUS...SOME SHALLOW SALTWATER INUNDATION IS
POSSIBLE IN THE NORMAL PRONE AREAS AND A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY
MAY EVENTUALLY BE NEEDED...ALTHOUGH SEEMS UNLIKELY AT THIS TIME
THAT LEVELS WILL REACH 7.0 FT MLLW.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...RJB
SHORT TERM...JRL
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...RJB
MARINE...JRL
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...



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