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Area Forecast Discussion

772
FXUS62 KCHS 270218
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
1018 PM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH OF THE REGION OVERNIGHT.
DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. A GULF OF
MEXICO STORM SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE REGION MID WEEK. DRY HIGH
PRESSURE WILL EVENTUALLY BUILD OVER THE REGION LATER THIS WEEK AND
WILL LAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
LATE SUNDAY EVENING...A COLD FRONT PASSING A JYL TO NBC LINE
WILL CONTINUE TO ADVANCE TOWARD THE SOUTH...PUSHING SOUTH OF THE
ALTAMAHA RIVER AFTER MIDNIGHT. ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A
THUNDERSTORM OR TWO WILL PUSH THROUGH AREAS NORTH OF THE COLD
FRONT...AND PRECIPITATION SHOULD GRADUALLY DISSIPATE OVERNIGHT.
THUS...FORECASTS HOLD POPS BELOW 15 PERCENT WITH NO MENTION OF
SHOWERS OVERNIGHT ALONG/SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 16...INCLUDING THE
SAVANNAH AREA. SLIGHT CHANCE/CHANCE POPS FARTHER NORTH TAPER TO
LESS THAN 15 PERCENT LATER TONIGHT.

OTHERWISE...COOLER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD INTO THE FORECAST
AREA OVERNIGHT. POST-FROPA TEMPS HAVE BEEN FALLING QUICKLY THROUGH
THE 60S. UNDER MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES...TEMPERATURES WILL BOTTOM OUT
IN THE 50S NORTH/60S SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD FROM THE NORTH AND
NORTHWEST BEHIND A COLD FRONT WELL TO OUR SOUTH AND OFFSHORE. AS A
RESULT...TEMPS WILL BE MUCH COOLER WITHIN A NORTHERLY FLOW. IN
GENERAL...MONDAY AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW TO MID
70S...THEN COOL A FEW MORE DEGREES ON TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
BECOMES CENTERED JUST TO OUR NORTH WHILE CLOUDS BEGIN TO DEVELOP
WITH MOISTURE RETURN TO OUR SOUTH. BY TUESDAY EVENING...SUFFICIENT
MOISTURE WILL RETURN WITH AN ONSHORE FLOW DEVELOPING WELL AHEAD OF
LOW PRESSURE SHIFTING OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO. A FEW
SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE...MAINLY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 16 BEFORE
SUNSET.

TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...LOW PRESSURE WILL STRENGTHEN/DEEPEN
OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO WITH A WARM FRONT EXTENDING
EASTWARD OVER THE NORTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA. THE WARM FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO LIFT NORTH AND EVENTUALLY REACH SOUTHERN AREAS BY
WEDNESDAY MORNING...BRINGING INCREASING SHOWER COVERAGE AND PERHAPS
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTHEAST GEORGIA. PRECIP COVERAGE WILL
LIKELY EXPAND OVER THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING
INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING AS THE MAIN SFC LOW TRACKS OVER THE
SOUTHEAST...THEN OFFSHORE. HAVE THEREFORE MAINTAINED 60-70 POPS OVER
MOST AREAS. TEMPS WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE TRACK OF THE SFC
LOW AND THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF THE WARM FRONT. AT THIS TIME...TEMPS
SHOULD PEAK IN THE UPPER 60S INLAND TO LOW/MID 70S CLOSER TO THE
COAST IN SOUTHEAST GEORGIA.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A BIT BETTER MODEL AGREEMENT NOW REGARDING THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
MOVING UP THE SOUTHEAST COAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT...ALTHOUGH THE ECMWF
CONTINUES TO BE SLOWER AND STRONGER THAN THE GFS. EITHER WAY IT
LOOKS LIKE RAIN CHANCES WILL BE DIMINISHING FROM SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHEAST WITH THE BEST CHANCES OVER SOUTHERN SOUTH CAROLINA. CANNOT
RULE OUT SOME LINGERING SHOWERS THURSDAY/FRIDAY AS THE UPPER LOW IS
SLOW TO MOVE THROUGH WITH TEMPS REMAINING BELOW NORMAL IN THE 70S.
IT LOOKS DRY FOR SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY LOOK DRIER AS HIGH PRESSURE
RETURNS WITH TEMPS GETTING BACK TO NEAR OR JUST ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE KCHS VICINITY
SHOULD END BY 04-06Z. MEANWHILE...A COLD FRONT WILL PASS KSAV
AROUND 04Z...AND WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE N/NE. MVFR CEILINGS
SHOULD PREVAIL MOST OF THE NIGHT AT KCHS...ALTHOUGH CONDITIONS
COULD VARY FROM IFR TO VFR AT TIMES. AT KSAV...TIMING OF LOWERING
CEILINGS REMAINS UNCERTAIN...BUT DETERIORATION FROM VFR TO AT
LEAST MVFR CEILINGS APPEARS LIKELY...AND OCCASIONAL IFR CEILINGS
CANNOT BE RULED OUT...ESPECIALLY LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY.
ANY FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS WILL GIVE WAY TO VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD
RETURN BY 15Z MONDAY.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL MONDAY
AND TUESDAY BEFORE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS RETURN
TUESDAY EVENING AND ESPECIALLY TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. SOME RAIN WILL BE MODERATE SO IFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS ARE
LIKELY ON WEDNESDAY. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD THEN PREVAIL THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
A COLD FRONT PUSHING THROUGH AMZ352 LATE SUNDAY EVENING WILL
ADVANCE SOUTH OF ALTAMAHA SOUND OVERNIGHT. IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONT...NE WINDS SHOULD AVERAGE 15-20 KT...ACCOMPANIED BY SEAS 2-4
FT...PERHAPS AS HIGH AS 5 FT BEYOND 20 NM. LOCALIZED/BRIEF SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS CANNOT BE RULED OUT...BUT PREVAILING SCA
CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED.

MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE BUILDING FROM
THE NORTH ON MONDAY...THEN BECOME CENTERED OVER THE AREA ON
TUESDAY...LEADING TO A WEAKENING PRESSURE GRADIENT THROUGH THE
PERIOD AND IMPROVED WINDS/SEAS. CONDITIONS SHOULD THEN DETERIORATE
ON WEDNESDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST
AND PASSES OVER THE COASTAL WATERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A PERIOD OF
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES IS POSSIBLE FOR ALL WATERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT
BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM...WITH BEST CHANCES
OCCURRING IN NORTHERN SC WATERS OFF THE CHARLESTON COUNTY COAST AND
IN OFFSHORE GEORGIA WATERS. WINDS/SEAS SHOULD THEN SLOWLY IMPROVE ON
THURSDAY AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SHIFTS NORTH/NORTHEAST AND AWAY
FROM THE AREA...BEFORE IMPROVING FURTHER AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
SETTLES OVER THE WATERS ON FRIDAY.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...SPR
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...SPR
MARINE...SPR



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