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Area Forecast Discussion

397
FXUS62 KCHS 260529
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
129 AM EDT SAT JUL 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN ATLANTIC RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF THE AREA
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE PREVAILING
INLAND. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH AND CROSS THE REGION LATE MONDAY
AND BECOME STATIONARY SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
LINGERING CONVECTION WILL BE IN A DIMINISHING MODE...BOTH IN AREA
AND IN STRENGTH...WITH 20-30 POPS FROM BEAUFORT COUNTY WEST TO
INTERIOR SE GA THROUGH ABOUT 3 AM. THEREAFTER...LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE OFF THE ATLANTIC CAN SPUR A FEW COASTAL
SHOWERS/T-STORMS UP AND DOWN THE COAST.

ONE OTHER ISSUE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG TO FORM. CLOUD
COVER IS AT PRESENT THE INHIBITING FACTOR...BUT WE MAY NEED TO ADD
FOG IN UPCOMING FORECAST IF CLOUDS THIN OUT ENOUGH LATER ON GIVEN
THE WIDESPREAD RAINS THAT HAVE OCCURRED.

TEMPS WILL BE ABOUT WHERE THEY SHOULD BE FOR MINIMUMS...DOWN INTO
THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...A MID AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
DAMPEN AS ITS AXIS GRADUALLY SHIFTS EAST OF THE AREA AND RIDGING
CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHWEST AND SOUTHERN PLAINS BUILDS EASTWARD. AT
THE SURFACE...ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL AS A TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE LINGERS INLAND. A WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL REDUCE MOISTURE
AND GRADUAL WARMING/RISING HEIGHTS ALOFT SHOULD AID IN SUPPRESSING
CONVECTION. HOWEVER...WILL CARRY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS/
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING AS A FEW ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS COULD DEVELOP ALONG ANY LINGERING BOUNDARIES INCLUDING
THE SEA BREEZE. DOWNSLOPE FLOW SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO WARM TO
THE MID 90S AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST DURING THE AFTERNOON...
WITH LOWS IN THE MID 70S AT NIGHT.

SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...MID AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL CONTINUE
TO EXPAND EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION FROM THE SOUTHWEST/SOUTHERN
PLAINS. STRONG CAPPING AND A DRIER WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT COULD VERY
WELL RESULT IN RAIN-FREE CONDITIONS...HOWEVER WILL MAINTAIN A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON UNTIL THE
DRIER TREND BECOMES MORE CERTAIN. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE ON THE
WARMING TREND GIVEN DOWNSLOPE FLOW AND RISING HEIGHTS ALOFT...WITH
HIGHS FORECAST TO BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S INLAND FROM THE COAST.
LOWS AT NIGHT WILL BE MILD...GENERALLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S.

MONDAY...A MORE AMPLIFIED MID AND UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL DEVELOP
AS A TROUGH EXPANDS OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. THIS WILL DRIVE
A COLD FRONT AT THE SURFACE TOWARD THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST. AN
AXIS OF DEEPER MOISTURE WILL SPREAD OVER THE AREA AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...AND THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
INLAND/NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE AREA GIVEN THE ORIENTATION/TIMING
OF THE FRONT. STRENGTHENING SOUTHWEST WINDS IN THE LOW LEVELS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE WILL RESULT IN RATHER MOIST CONDITIONS...WITH DEWPOINTS
SURGING INTO THE LOWER AND MID 70S. THIS MOIST AIR MASS AND STRONG
DIURNAL HEATING WILL RESULT IN A RATHER UNSTABLE AIR MASS WITH SB
CAPE VALUES RISING TO 2000-3000 J/KG...LI/S DOWN TO -7 OR -8C AND
STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. IN ADDITION...FALLING HEIGHTS/COOLING
ALOFT AND AN INCREASE OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR COULD SUPPORT STRONG TO
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA. DOWNSLOPE FLOW AND STRONG
COMPRESSIONAL HEATING WILL LIKELY RESULT IN HIGHS IN THE UPPER 90S
INLAND FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST...UNLESS CONVECTION DEVELOPS EARLIER
THAN ANTICIPATED. GIVEN THE HIGH DEWPOINTS...HEAT INDEX VALUES COULD
REACH UPWARDS OF AROUND 110 DEGREES IN SOME AREAS. SINCE THIS IS OUR
CRITERIA FOR A HEAT ADVISORY...HAVE ADDED MENTION TO THE HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT AND
BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY TO THE EAST AND SOUTH. BEHIND THE
FRONT...EXPECT A NOTICEABLE AIR MASS DIFFERENCE AS HEIGHTS FALL
OVERHEAD WITHIN THE AMPLIFYING EASTERN CONUS TROUGH. THIS SETUP WILL
KEEP TEMPERATURES 2-4 DEGREES CLIMO THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. THE
BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN...AND RESULTING HIGHEST POPS...WILL BE IN THE
MONDAY NIGHT TIME PERIOD ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT.
THEREAFTER...POPS WILL BECOME MORE DIURNAL IN NATURE AS THE LOW
LEVEL FLOW TURNS MORE EAST TO NORTHEAST WITH TIME.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUD COVER WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH
OVERNIGHT...LIKELY DECREASING ENOUGH FOR SOME MVFR OR LOWER
CONDITIONS AT KCHS CLOSER TO DAYBREAK DUE TO THE WET GROUNDS FROM
RECENT RAINFALL.

COVERAGE OF SHRA/TSRA ON SATURDAY WILL BE ISOLATED...SO ANY DIRECT
IMPACTS ON EITHER OR BOTH TERMINALS IS TOO LIMITED TO INCLUDE WITH
THE 06Z TAFS.

ASIDE FROM THE EARLY MORNING FOG AT KCHS AND MAYBE IN ISOLATED
AFTERNOON CONVECTION...VFR WEATHER WILL BE THE RULE AT BOTH AIRFIELDS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...PRIMARILY VFR. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED
TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA LATE MONDAY. BRIEF CEILING AND VISIBILITY
REDUCTIONS MAY BE POSSIBLE WITH THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP IN THE
EVENING HOURS.

&&

.MARINE...
OVERNIGHT...SYNOPTIC WINDS AND THE RESULTING SEAS WILL REMAIN
BELOW ANY SCA CRITERIA...ALTHOUGH PERIODIC GUSTS PAST 30 KT CAN
STILL OCCUR AS CONVECTION IMPACTS PARTS OF THE MARINE WATERS.

SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...THE FIRST PORTION OF THE FORECAST PERIOD
WILL FEATURE HIGH PRESSURE TO THE EAST AND AN INLAND TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE. THIS WILL PROMOTE A MODEST SOUTHWEST FLOW THROUGH SUNDAY.
THEN SUNDAY NIGHT ONWARD THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN IN
RESPONSE TO AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THIS WILL RESULT IN WINDS
INCREASING INTO THE 15-20 KT RANGE...AND PERHAPS EVEN MARGINALLY
SUPPORTIVE OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR PORTIONS OF THE WATERS
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. THE GRADIENT AND RESULTING WINDS WILL THEN
DECREASE ON TUESDAY.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...JAQ
LONG TERM...BSH
AVIATION...
MARINE...






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