« Back
NWS Peachtree City, Ga » Text Product » CHS Area Forecast Discussion


Printer-friendly Version
Current Version              Previous Versions:   1  2  3  4  5  6  7  8  9  

Area Forecast Discussion

199
FXUS62 KCHS 020508
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
108 AM EDT MON MAY 2 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL STRETCH ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT AS LOW
PRESSURE AND A COLD FRONT REMAIN OFF TO THE DISTANT NORTHWEST. A
SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE AREAS WILL GRADUALLY PUSH A COLD FRONT
TOWARD THE REGION MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...PRODUCING UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS. THE COLD FRONT WILL ADVANCE THROUGH THE REGION TUESDAY
NIGHT AND WILL PUSH OFFSHORE WEDNESDAY...FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER COLD
FRONT THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN EXPAND INTO THE REGION
THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
ONLY MINOR CHANGES WERE MADE WITH THE EARLY MORNING UPDATE. EXPECT
DRY WEATHER OVERNIGHT. FOG IS NOT A REAL CONCERN WITH BOUNDARY
LAYER WINDS HOLDING ABOVE 10 KT...ALTHOUGH SOME SHALLOW GROUND FOG
CAN NOT BE RULED OUT SOUTH OF I-16...MAINLY IN SHELTERED AREAS.
NUDGED OVERNIGHT LOWS UP A DEGREE OR SO PER GOING TRENDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AS A
SERIES OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS EMBEDDED WITHIN A WSW FLOW ALOFT CROSS
THE REGION AND INTERACT WITH A PLUME OF ENHANCED DEEP-LAYERED
MOISTURE/PWATS 1.50 TO 1.75 INCHES. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN COULD OCCUR
IF/WHERE THUNDERSTORM TRAINING/CELL MERGERS DEVELOP...AND AN
ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM OR TWO CANNOT BE DISCOUNTED ESPECIALLY
IF/WHERE CONVECTION INTERACTS WITH MESOSCALE BOUNDARIES MONDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING. MONDAY NIGHT...THE ALREADY LIMITED SEVERE
POTENTIAL WILL DIMINISH...BUT THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL WILL PERSIST.

WHILE THE LOCATION OF BEST THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT
REMAINS UNCERTAIN AND WILL DEPEND IN LARGE MEASURE ON THE
ANTECEDENT/DEVELOPING MESOSCALE ENVIRONMENT...PER RECENT GUIDANCE
MAINTAINED HIGHEST POPS ACROSS INLAND/NORTHERN COUNTIES MONDAY
AFTERNOON/NIGHT.

HIGH TEMPERATURES MONDAY WILL REMAIN HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON CLOUD COVER
AND PRECIPITATION DISTRIBUTION...PERHAPS AS LOW AS THE LOWER 80S
WHERE CLOUDS/PRECIPITATION PERSIST AND AS HIGH AS THE MID/UPPER 80S
WHERE LESS CLOUD COVER/PRECIPITATION COVERAGE PREVAIL. TEMPERATURES
SHOULD BOTTOM OUT IN THE 65-70F RANGE MONDAY NIGHT.

TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...AN UNSETTLED REGIME WITH PWATS STILL AT
OR EXCEEDING 1.50 INCHES WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE REGION. IN ADDITION
TO MESOSCALE BOUNDARIES CREATED BY EARLIER/ONGOING CONVECTION...A
COLD FRONT WILL PRESS INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST AND WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY A BROAD AREA OF 500 MB HEIGHT FALLS AND WEAK 500-300
MB Q VECTOR CONVERGENCE. DYNAMIC FORCING FOR ASCENT SHOULD COMBINE
WITH A FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC/KINEMATIC ENVIRONMENT TO PRODUCE AT
LEAST SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. LOCALLY EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS COULD OCCUR ESPECIALLY
TUESDAY MIDDAY INTO TUESDAY EVENING.

ELEVATED POPS REMAIN IN FORECASTS TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY
EVENING...WITH HIGHEST POPS INITIALLY ACROSS INLAND/NORTHERN
COUNTIES IN THE MORNING THEN EXPANDING INTO MUCH OF THE AREA TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. HIGHEST POPS THEN SHIFT OFFSHORE WITH THE COLD FRONT
TUESDAY EVENING...AND POPS DIMINISH WITH TIME AS THE COLD FRONT
ADVANCES OFFSHORE AND DRIER AIR BEGINS TO SPREAD INTO THE REGION
LATER TUESDAY NIGHT.

AGAIN...HIGH TEMPERATURES TUESDAY REMAIN UNCERTAIN AND WILL DEPEND
ON TIMING/COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. THE LATEST FORECAST
INDICATES HIGH TEMPS IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S...BUT LOCALLY
SIGNIFICANT VARIANCES COULD DEVELOPMENT.

WEDNESDAY...RECENT GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED TOWARD A MORE PROGRESSIVE
COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED DRYING TREND. THUS...MAINTAINED LOW POPS
FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE COAST DURING THE FIRST HALF OF
THE DAY...THEN LOWERED POPS WELL BELOW 15 PERCENT WITH NO MENTION OF
PRECIPITATION DURING THE AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE...EXPECT COOLER AND
DRIER CONDITIONS WITH DEWPOINTS FALLING INTO THE 50S AND HIGH TEMPS
RANGING FROM THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MODELS ARE NOW IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT WHILE A STORM SYSTEM IMPACTS THE
NORTHEASTERN STATES. A DRY COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH ON
THURSDAY...BRINGING COOLER TEMPERATURES FOR FRIDAY. DESPITE A TROUGH
REMAINING OVER THE EAST COAST DURING THIS ENTIRE TIME PERIOD...POPS
ARE LOW BECAUSE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE SPREAD ACROSS OR NEAR THE
SOUTHEAST STATES FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR. RISK FOR TSTMS WILL INCREASE AT BOTH TERMINALS DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. WILL HOLD OFF OF ANY MENTION WITH THE 06Z TAF
CYCLE...BUT WILL LIKELY NEED TO BE INTRODUCED WITH THE 12Z TAF
CYCLE. HIGHEST PROBABILITIES FOR IMPACTS LOOK TO OCCUR AT KSAV.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...PERIODIC FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS WITHIN
SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.
THEN...VFR THROUGH LATE WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT...SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE WITH WINDS GENERALLY 10 KT
OR LESS. SEAS WILL AVERAGE 2-4 FT.

MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT A SURGE
OF S/SW WINDS IS EXPECTED ESPECIALLY MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING INTO
TUESDAY. FOR NOW...CAPPED WINDS AT 20 KT AND SEAS BELOW 6 FT...BUT A
PERIOD OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS CANNOT BE RULED OUT. AFTER
THE COLD FRONT PASSES TUESDAY NIGHT/EARLY WEDNESDAY...OFFSHORE WINDS
WILL PREVAIL THROUGH LATE WEEK...WITH WINDS/SEAS REMAINING BELOW
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
THE CHARLESTON HARBOR NOS TIDE GAUGE HAS STOPPED REPORTING ALL
METEOROLOGICAL AND TIDE DATA. THE NATIONAL OCEAN SERVICE IS
INVESTIGATING THE CAUSE OF THE OUTAGE. AN ESTIMATED TIME FOR DATA
RESTORATION IS UNKNOWN AT THIS TIME.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

ST



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.