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Area Forecast Discussion

937
FXUS62 KCHS 221857
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
257 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO GEORGIA AND SOUTH CAROLINA TODAY AND
THEN DOMINATE INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 300 PM WEDNESDAY...AS THE FORECAST AREA REMAINS WEDGED BETWEEN
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE NORTHEAST COAST AND HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE
MIDWEST...NORTH-NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE. AS A RESULT...COOL AND
DRIER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO INFILTRATE INTO THE AREA THROUGH THE
PERIOD. CURRENT TEMPERATURES ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA ARE IN
THE UPPER 60S WHILE A FEW LOCATIONS HAVE MANAGED TO REACH 70
DEGREES. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB ONLY A FEW MORE
DEGREES...OVERALL CRESTING IN THE LOWER 70S.

THIS EVENING AND INTO THE EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS...WINDS WILL
DECREASE TO LIGHT AND VARIABLE ALONG THE COAST WHILE INLAND AREAS
WILL SEE NEARLY CALM WINDS. THIS COMBINED WITH NEARLY CLEAR SKIES
WILL CREATE CONDITIONS IDEAL FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING...ALLOWING FOR
TEMPERATURES TO COOL QUICKLY OVERNIGHT. EXPECT LOWER 40S
INLAND...WITH MID TO UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S AS YOU MOVE TOWARDS THE
COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THURSDAY...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM THE GREAT LAKES
TO THE DEEP SOUTH WILL MAINTAIN NORTHWEST FLOW AND FAIR WEATHER
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. EXPECT SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL HIGHS IN
THE LOWER 70S ON THU. LOWS WILL CONTINUE RUNNING BELOW NORMAL...
FALLING INTO THE MID 40S INLAND AND UPPER 40S/LOWER 50S CLOSER TO
THE COAST.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...DRY WEATHER WILL PERSIST INTO THE WEEKEND AS
PWAT VALUES REMAIN BELOW 0.5 INCHES. UPPER RIDGE WILL FLATTEN ON FRI
AS A SHORTWAVE MOVES OVERHEAD LATE IN THE DAY WITHIN THE CONTINUED
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. OTHER THAN SOME CIRRUS...NO SENSIBLE WEATHER
EXPECTED WITH THIS FEATURE. FRI WILL FEATURE MORE SEASONABLE HIGH
TEMPS IN THE MID 70S. AS THE LOW LEVEL FLOW ACQUIRES A MORE WESTERLY
COMPONENT...HIGHS ON SAT WILL CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 70S. LOWS ON FRI
WILL RANGE FROM THE MID/UPPER 40S INLAND TO THE LOWER/MID 50S ALONG
THE COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
GLOBAL MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH MONDAY THEN START TO
DIVERGE. A SPRAWLING DEEP LAYER RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST SUNDAY
AND THEN MOVES JUST OFF SHORE BY LATER MONDAY AS AN ANOTHER UPPER
TROUGH TAKES SHAPE OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. THIS NEXT TROUGH IS WHERE
THE MODELS DIVERGE. THE ECMWF IS SLOWER AND MORE FULL LATITUDE IN
ITS EXTENT BY TUESDAY...WHILE THE GFS IS WEAKER AND FASTER...HOLDING
THE BULK OF THE ENERGY WELL NORTH OVER THE GREAT LAKES. ODDLY...
MODELS COME BACK TO CLOSER AGREEMENT BY WEDNESDAY AS BOTH SHOW A
BROAD TROUGH/NEARLY ZONAL FLOW OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN U.S. AND A
DEEP LAYER RIDGE DEPARTING OVER THE ATLANTIC. THROUGH THIS
PERIOD...GLOBAL MODELS KEEP THE MAIN TROPICAL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED
WITH TD9...CURRENTLY OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE...WELL SOUTH OF THE
AREA.

EXPECT ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THIS PERIOD AS A DEEP LAYER
RIDGE LARGELY DOMINATES. MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...LOW LEVEL FLOW
VEERS TO SOUTHEAST...WHICH WILL HELP TO ADVECT BETTER LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE INTO THE AREA. THUS...HAVE CONTINUED TREND OF SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS FOR SHOWERS OVER MAINLY THE COASTAL AND ATLANTIC WATERS.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 18Z...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD.  THE ONLY
ISSUE WILL BE WINDS THROUGH ABOUT SUNSET WITH NW WINDS OF 10 TO 15
KT AND GUSTS AOA 20 KT.  WINDS WILL SUBSIDE TO ABOUT 5 KT AFTER
SUNSET.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...EXPECT VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...
AS OF 300 PM WEDNESDAY...WITH A COLD FRONT WELL OFFSHORE AND A HIGH
PRESSURE TO THE NORTHWEST CONTINUING TO BUILD INTO THE AREA...EXPECT
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TO BECOME MORE RELAXED THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO
THE EVENING HOURS...ALLOWING FOR NORTH-NORTHWEST WINDS TO DECREASE
TO AROUND 10 TO 15 KTS...WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER GUSTS POSSIBLE AT
TIMES. AS FOR SEAS...EXPECT 3 TO 5 FT WAVES.

THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...EXPECT MAINLY 2-3 FT SEAS ON THU WITH
NORTH WINDS 10-15 KT. COULD SEE SOME 3-4 FT SEAS IN THE OUTER
GEORGIA WATERS EARLY THU. AS THE GRADIENT RELAXES FRI INTO SAT...
SEAS WILL SUBSIDE TO 1-2 FT WITH LIGHT OFFSHORE FLOW. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL REMAIN NORTHWEST OF THE REGION THROUGH SUNDAY...THEN SHIFT
NORTH AND EAST OF THE AREA BY MON. NO HEADLINES OVER THE WATERS
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...SGL.ILM
SHORT TERM...BJR.ILM
LONG TERM...RFM.CHS
AVIATION...RN.ILM
MARINE...SGL.ILM...BJR.ILM









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