« Back
NWS Peachtree City, Ga » Text Product » CHS Area Forecast Discussion


Printer-friendly Version
Current Version              Previous Versions:   1  2  3  4  5  6  7  8  9  

Area Forecast Discussion

624
FXUS62 KCHS 271815
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
215 PM EDT THU AUG 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STATIONARY FRONT WILL REMAIN OVER OR NEAR THE AREA THROUGH
TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE IN NORTH OF THE REGION INTO
FRIDAY BEFORE MOVING OFF THE EAST COAST THIS WEEKEND. TROPICAL
STORM ERIKA COULD IMPACT THE SOUTHEAST U.S. BY EARLY OR MID NEXT
WEEK. REFER TO THE LATEST ADVISORY ON ERIKA ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE STATIONARY FRONT NEAR THE COAST AND JUST OFFSHORE SHOULD FOCUS
MORE INLAND TODAY AS LOW PRESSURE CONSOLIDATES OVER SOUTHERN
GEORGIA/NORTHERN FLORIDA AND THE SEA BREEZE KICKS IN. UPPER
DIVERGENCE INDUCED BY THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF A JET TO THE
NORTHEAST OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC WILL SUPPORT SCATTERED
SHOWERS/TSTMS LATER THIS MORNING AND CONTINUING INTO THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. BEST CHANCES LIKELY CLOSER TO THE COAST WHERE THE GREATER
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE WILL BE. ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER SHOULD KEEP
HIGHS DOWN A BIT...MAINLY RANGING FROM THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S
INLAND...COOLEST NEAR CHARLESTON. THE MAIN HAZARD LOOKS TO BE
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WITH A FEW STRONG TO EVEN SEVERE STORMS
POSSIBLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
TONIGHT...CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH SLOWLY THIS
EVENING WITH ADDITIONAL SHOWERS/TSTMS DEVELOPING OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS IN RESPONSE TO LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE SHIFTING BACK TO THE
WESTERN WALL OF THE GULF STREAM. WILL NEED TO KEEP 20-40 PERCENT
POPS FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT...HIGHEST AT THE COAST...AS THE LOW-
LEVEL FLOW REGIME WILL FAVOR SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY MAKING IT
INLAND. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 70S INLAND WITH UPPER
70S/NEAR 80 AT THE BEACHES AND DOWNTOWN CHARLESTON.

FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...AT UPPER LEVELS....THE REGION WILL REMAIN
BETWEEN A WEAKENING TROUGH TO THE WEST OVER THE MS RIVER VALLEY
AND A STRONG ATLANTIC RIDGE TO THE EAST. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED WELL NORTH OF THE AREA ON FRIDAY...WILL SHIFT
EAST INTO THE ATLANTIC ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. THE LOW LEVEL FLOW
WILL BE EASTERLY ON FRIDAY...THEN VEER TO SOUTHEAST SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY. DEEP LAYER MOISTURE WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE PERIOD AS
EAST- SOUTHEAST FLOW ADVECTS TROPICAL MOISTURE INTO THE AREA. WENT
LOW END CHANCE POPS FOR MAINLY AFTERNOON CONVECTION ON
FRIDAY...THEN INCREASED TO HIGH END CHANCE FOR BOTH SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ALL EYES WILL BE FOCUSING ON THE FATE OF ERIKA DURING THIS PERIOD.
THE LATEST NHC FORECAST FOR ERIKA HAS THE CENTER OF THE STORM
EMERGING FROM THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS LATER MONDAY...THEN MOVING
NORTHWARD TOWARD OUR ATLANTIC WATERS ON TUESDAY. THE OFFICIAL NHC
TRACK IS PRETTY CLOSE TO THE LATEST RUN OF THE GFS. IT IS STILL TOO
EARLY TO SPECULATE ON ANY POTENTIAL IMPACTS FROM ERIKA IN OUR AREA
DUE TO A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY WITH BOTH THE TRACK AND
INTENSITY OF THIS SYSTEM.

HAVE GRADUALLY INCREASED POPS MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WITH HIGH
END CHANCE TO LOW END LIKELY ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY. DUE TO
UNCERTAINTY IN THE TRACK...HAVE KEPT HIGH END CHANCE FOR NOW ON
WEDNESDAY. BY THURSDAY...STARTED TO TREND POPS DOWN ASSUMING ERIKA
MOVES WELL AWAY FROM OUR REGION BY THEN.

TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

PLEASE CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS FROM THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AND OUR OFFICE CONCERNING ERIKA.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MAINLY VFR OUTSIDE OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS...GENERALLY THROUGH EARLY
EVENING. MORE INSTABILITY AT KSAV SO BETTER RISK OF TS THERE. SO
PLENTIFUL LOW- LEVEL MOISTURE WILL ALSO LEAD TO MVFR CIGS AT
TIMES...MOSTLY THIS AFTERNOON AND AGAIN AFTER 12Z FRI. MEDIUM RISK
FOR MVFR/IFR CIGS TOWARD DAYBREAK FRI AS WELL AS A LOW RISK OF
MVFR VSBYS IN FOG.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...EXPECT VFR TO
DOMINATE WITH BRIEF PERIODS OF FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. LATER MONDAY THROUGH MID
WEEK...THE FORECAST HIGHLY DEPENDS ON THE EVENTUAL TRACK AND
INTENSITY OF ERIKA. THE LATEST TRACK FROM NHC BRINGS ERIKA TOWARD
OUR REGION TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. EXPECT INCREASING CHANCES FOR
CONVECTION AND FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS... ESPECIALLY LATER TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY...ASSUMING THIS WILL BE THE TIME FRAME OF CLOSEST
APPROACH OF ERIKA. ALSO WIND SPEEDS AND DIRECTIONS WILL BE HIGHLY
DEPENDENT ON WHERE ERIKA TRACKS. STAY TUNED TO THE LATEST
FORECASTS FROM THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AND OUR OFFICE
CONCERNING ERIKA.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY...LIGHT WINDS WILL BECOME MORE EAST TODAY AS THE STATIONARY
FRONT MEANDERS FARTHER INLAND AND THE SEA BREEZE CIRCULATION TAKES
HOLD. SPEEDS LOOK TO MAX OUT AT 10-15 KT WITH SEAS 1-3 FT. TSTMS
COULD POSE A RISK FOR MARINERS WITH WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 35
KT...CLOUD TO WATER LIGHTNING AND VSBYS LESS THAN 1 NM IN HEAVY
RAIN.

TONIGHT...SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL PREVAIL WITH WINDS GENERALLY 10-15
KT WITH SEAS 1-3 FT. TSTMS COULD POSE A RISK FOR MARINERS WITH
WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 35 KT...CLOUD TO WATER LIGHTNING AND
VSBYS LESS THAN 1 NM IN HEAVY RAIN.

THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...NO HIGHLIGHTS EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF
MONDAY WITH WINDS GENERALLY 15 KTS OR LESS AND SEAS LESS THAN 5
FEET. ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN CENTERED EAST AND NORTH
OF THE AREA THROUGH MONDAY...WITH EAST WINDS ON FRIDAY...VEERING
TO SOUTHEAST SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

LATER MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE FORECAST BECOMES HIGHLY
DEPENDENT ON THE EVENTUAL TRACK AND INTENSITY OF ERIKA. THE
LATEST NHC FORECAST HAS ERIKA APPROACHING THE WATERS LATER
TUESDAY. HAVE STARTED TO TREND WINDS AND SEAS UP BY MONDAY NIGHT
AND TUESDAY...BUT THERE IS A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS
FORECAST. FOR NOW...HAVE CAPED WINDS AT 30 KTS OR LESS TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY...WITH SEAS 10-15 FEET...MAINLY OFFSHORE.

PLEASE STAY TUNED TO THE LATEST FORECASTS FROM THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AND OUR OFFICE CONCERNING ERIKA.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
THIS EVENING...CURRENT TIDE TRENDS SUGGEST TIDE LEVELS COULD PEAK
NEAR OR JUST ABOVE 7.0 FT MLLW IN THE CHARLESTON HARBOR. WITH THE
FAIRLY LIGHT WIND REGIME IN PLACE...IT IS POSSIBLE TIDES MAY FALL
JUST SHORT AS GUIDANCE TENDS TO RUN A BIT TOO HIGH THIS FAR OUT IN
THIS KIND OF REGIME. HOWEVER...A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY COULD
STILL BE NEEDED FOR PARTS OF THE LOWER SOUTH CAROLINA COAST LATER
TODAY. TRENDS SUGGEST TIDES WILL REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA
FORT PULASKI AND THE GEORGIA COAST.

FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...ASTRONOMICAL TIDES WILL BE HIGH FRIDAY
THROUGH MID NEXT WEEK. EVEN WITHOUT ANY EFFECTS FROM
ERIKA...EXTRA- TROPICAL SURGE GUIDANCE SHOWS TIDES REACHING MINOR
COASTAL FLOOD LEVELS DURING THE MAJOR HIGH TIDES FOR FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. EASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WILL HELP TO
INCREASE TIDE LEVELS. WINDS BECOME MORE SOUTHEAST BY
SUNDAY...WHICH MAY NOT BE QUITE AS CONDUCIVE FOR PUSHING TIDE
LEVELS HIGHER...BUT WILL CONTINUE MONITORING THE POTENTIAL FOR
MINOR COASTAL FLOODING.

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...ASTRONOMICAL TIDE LEVELS WILL REMAIN MUCH
HIGHER THAN NORMAL...AND IF THE LATEST FORECAST FROM NHC FOR ERIKA
HOLDS...WE WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE SIGNIFICANT RISES IN THE
TIDES ALONG WITH SOME COASTAL FLOODING.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...RJB
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...RJB
MARINE...
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.