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Area Forecast Discussion

FXUS62 KCHS 240605

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston SC
205 AM EDT WED AUG 24 2016

High pressure will build from the north tonight, then prevail across
the region into the weekend. A cold front could stall over or close
to the region early next week.


Tuesday was the 63rd day in a row with temps reaching at 90F at
KSAV, by far it`s longest stretch on record of temps at least that

Tonight: A strong and deep anticyclone centered over the lower MS
Valley, with 500 mb heights near 5970 meters, and a 1026 mb high
pressure system near the Delmarva and starting to wedge into the
inland parts of the southeast will prevail. Drier air above the
first mile or two of the troposphere will allow for mostly clear
skies far north, partly cloudy skies or becoming partly cloudy
most elsewhere. Some late night showers driven by low level
convergence could skirt the coastal counties close to or after
daybreak Wednesday.

Maybe some late night stratus over interior GA with nocturnal
cooling and the wet grounds from recent rains. But probably too
much mixing in the planetary boundary layer for anything more than
ground fog, but we`ll continue to assess the potential for more
significant fog due to the earlier rains.

Temps will bottom out in the lower and middle 70s most
communities, with the exception of some upper 60s in normally
cooler rural areas of Berkeley and Dorchester counties, and upper
70s to near 80 on the barrier islands.


An expansive ridge of high pressure will prevail over the Southeast
mid to late week, favoring a dry forecast for most if not all
locations. The only exception could be an isolated shower that
drifts onshore in Southeast Georgia or well inland where a weak sfc
trough develops over the Midlands late week. Otherwise, expect rain-
free conditions with near normal temps for a few days. In general,
afternoon highs should peak in the upper 80s to lower 90s Wednesday
and Thursday, before the mid/upper ridge becomes directly centered
over the Southeast and warms temps into the lower/middle 90s on
Friday. Overnight lows will range in the upper 60s/lower 70s inland
to middle/upper 70s near the coast.


To start this period, deep-layered high pressure should maintain a
dry/capped environment supporting temps in the mid 90s and a return
of 100F heat index values to much of the forecast area. Similar
temps and slightly higher dewpoints/heat index values can be
expected Sunday. Meanwhile, a weakening cold front will push into
the region late Sunday and will stall over or close to the region
early next week. To account for this feature, maintained slight
chance pops Sunday and slight chance/chance pops Monday. Tuesday,
slight chance/chance pops are limited to far southern counties,
although the eventual position of the stationary front and
associated POPs remain uncertain. Otherwise, this front could
produce Monday/Tuesday temps a couple of degrees lower than those of
the weekend, although a significant airmass change appears unlikely.
Also of note, medium range guidance solutions regarding possible
tropical development differ greatly early next week. Attempts to
incorporate any specific tropical scenario into early week forecasts
would be based on speculation rather than solid, supportable
forecast reasoning.


VFR will prevail through 06Z Thu.

Extended Aviation Outlook: VFR conditions are expected at both CHS
and SAV terminals.


Tonight: A 1026 mb high pressure system will be centered over the
mid-Atlantic states, with the southern periphery of this feature
continuing to build into our area. A fairly modest E-NE gradient
between the high and lower pressures in the Bahamas and Caribbean
will lead to winds up near 15 or 15-20 kt throughout the night,
with slight decrease in speeds in Charleston Harbor late. Seas
will be 3 ft within 20 nm and 3-4 ft across AMZ374, with some 5
footers out near 50-60 nm off the coast.

Wednesday through Sunday: High pressure will dominate the coastal
waters through the weekend, supporting east/northeast winds around
15 kt and gusts occasionally up to 20 kt over Georgia waters. Seas
will range between 2-4 feet, although occasional 5 feet seas will
push into waters beyond 20 nm this weekend. Small Craft Advisory
conditions appear unlikely at this time.

Rip currents: Onshore winds and a small long period swell will
persist this week, elevating the risk of rip currents late week.
There is a chance that the swell could increase in size late this
weekend. If this occurs, the chance for rip currents will increase


A long duration of northeast winds will support elevated high tides
through late week. Extratropical surge guidance continues to hold
tides just below Coastal Flood Advisory levels. There remains a
low probability that slightly stronger than expected northeast
winds could overcome this gap, pushing early/mid afternoon high
tide levels to Coastal Flood Advisory thresholds.


The Metter NOAA Weather Radio All Hazards station, WWH-25 will be
off the air until further notice. The telephone company is
investigating the problem.





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