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Area Forecast Discussion

017
FXUS62 KCHS 292321
AFDCHS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston SC
721 PM EDT WED JUN 29 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Through the middle of next week, Atlantic high pressure will
prevail, while a stationary front will linger inland.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
Made additional adjustments to hourly pops to reflect current
radar trends. Much of the boundary layer has stablized in the wake
of earlier convection. Likely pops were maintained across the far
south where light showers linger.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Thursday through Saturday: Expect typically hot/humid conditions
accompanied by normal to slightly above normal pops. Any daily
variations will be governed by subtle changes in various parameters,
including the impacts of antecedent convection, slight changes in
deep layered mean relative humidity and fluctuations in the broad
upper trough over the region. Maximum pops of 40-50 percent are
focused along the sea breeze during the afternoon/evening hours each
day, and pops increase to 30-40 percent across central/northern
coastal counties and adjacent coastal waters each night/early
morning. Brief/localized episodes of damaging wind gusts and
excessive rainfall could occur especially during the
afternoon/evening hours. Interesting to note that forecast
temperatures in the lower/mid 90s could support stronger instability
and perhaps a somewhat greater chance for pulse severe thunderstorms
along the sea breeze Saturday.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
The long term forecast period looks relatively uneventful for the
forecast area. The mid/upper level flow will flatten out beginning
Saturday night and Sunday, and there some indications that the
subtropical ridge will build back westward and nudge into the
Southeast through early to mid week. At the surface, the subtropical
high will build back into the area and result in a rather homogeneous
pattern through the end of the forecast period. For now, the
forecast features chance diurnal POPs, but the overall coverage
could end up being less if the upper ridge turns out to be as strong
as portrayed on some of the global models. One thing looks certain,
temperatures will be on the upward trend with mid to upper 90s quite
prevalent by Monday and Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
For the rest of the night mainly VFR and only isolated showers
expected. Cannot rule out some low stratus late tonight but the
greatest chance will be farther inland close to the retreating
surface front.

Extended Aviation Outlook: Flight restrictions are possible within
any showers/thunderstorms through the period. Outside of convection,
mainly VFR conditions are expected.

&&

.MARINE...
Tonight: Winds altered by thunderstorms early will turn toward
the SSW overnight as Atlantic high pressure regains control. Wind
speeds will remain below 15 kt.

Thursday through Monday: Outside localized impacts of thunderstorms,
expect no significant day-to-day variation this period. No Small
Craft Advisory conditions are expected. Winds will turn onshore each
afternoon/early evening due to the sea breeze circulation, then
winds will veer SW each night. Through the period, winds should
remain 20 kt or less, with periods of max wind speeds during the sea
breeze and overnight due to modest nocturnal surging. Seas of 2-4
feet should prevail through the period.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
The upcoming Perigee occurs early Friday and the New Moon occurs
Independence Day. This scenario will support elevated tides, with
shallow coastal flooding possible late this week into early next
week.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
SC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

ST



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