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Area Forecast Discussion

896
FXUS62 KCHS 221755
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
155 PM EDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH TODAY...GRADUALLY
SHIFTING INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. IT WILL REMAIN THE DOMINANT
WEATHER FEATURE THROUGH LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...NO CHANGE TO THE GOING FORECAST.
TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED INTO THE MID AND UPPER 70S WITH PERIODS
OF SUNSHINE COMING THROUGH THE SCATTERED TO BROKEN STRATOCUMULUS.
THIS STRATOCU HAS STARTED TO BREAK UP AND DISSIPATE WITH THE ONSET
OF SURFACE HEATING IN THE LATE MAY SUNSHINE...AND WILL CONTINUE
TO DO SO THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT...MUCH COOLER CONDITIONS AS WINDS DECOUPLE AWAY FROM THE
BEACHES AND BARRIER ISLAND AND LOWS FALL INTO THE MID/UPPER 50S
INLAND UNDER CLEAR SKIES. MANY COASTAL AREAS EAST OF U.S. 17 WILL
FALL TO AROUND 60 WITH MILDER CONDITIONS RIGHT AT THE LAND/SEA
INTERFACE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
UNSEASONABLY DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER THE AREA FROM THE
NORTH SATURDAY WHILE AN UPPER RIDGE STRENGTHENS OVERHEAD. THE
SURFACE HIGH WILL SHIFT INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC SUNDAY INTO MONDAY
THOUGH THE UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD. WE WILL BE HARD
PRESSED TO INITIATE ANY CONVECTION SATURDAY OR SUNDAY GIVEN SUCH
MEAGER MOISTURE PROFILES AND STRONG CAPPING. WE INCLUDED A SLIGHT
CHANCE POP ACROSS FAR SOUTHWESTERN ZONES ON MONDAY WHERE PWATS
INCREASE TO AROUND 1.6" AND AFTERNOON TEMPS RISE INTO THE UPPER 80S.
COVERAGE SHOULD STILL BE QUITE LIMITED DUE TO SUCH WARM MID-LEVELS.
TEMPS WILL SHOW A WARMING TREND DURING THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A STRONG DEEP LAYERED RIDGE WILL REMAIN THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE
DURING THE LONG TERM PERIOD. INCREASING LOW-LEVEL THICKNESSES
SUPPORT A WARMING TREND WITH TEMPS SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
THROUGH THE PERIOD. A STRONG MID-LEVEL CAP WILL MINIMIZE RAIN
CHANCES THROUGH WEDNESDAY. SOME SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL BEGIN TO ERODE
THE RIDGE FROM THE WEST THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...POTENTIALLY ALLOWING
FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS TO MOVE INTO INLAND AREAS DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
REST OF TODAY...THE NORTHEAST SURGE HAS PEAKED AND NOW ENCOMPASSES
ALL OF THE LOCAL WATERS. BUOY 41008 IS SITTING WELL WITHIN THE
15-20 KT RANGE AS ARE OTHER OBSERVATION POINTS ALONG THE COAST AND
OVER THE WATERS. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL NOT BE NEEDED AS A
RESULT. NORTHEAST WINDS 15-20 KT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF
TODAY WITH SEAS 2-3 FT OUT TO 20 NM AND 3-5 FT BEYOND.

TONIGHT...THE TIGHTER GRADIENT WILL RESIDE OVER SOUTHERN GEORGIA
WATERS AND WITH A BETTER FETCH GEORGIA WATERS...SEAS SHOULD WAVER
FROM 4-5 FT OVER GEORGIA WATERS BEYOND 20 NM.

A LONG EAST-NORTHEAST FETCH WITH SLIGHTLY ENHANCED GRADIENT WILL
EXIST SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST FROM THE MID-
ATLANTIC REGION. WITH THE PREVAILING ONSHORE FLOW AND WARM LAND
TEMPS WE EXPECT A ROBUST AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE BOTH DAYS.
ADDITIONALLY...SEAS WILL GRADUALLY BUILD AND WE COULD SEE 6 FT SEAS
OVER OUTER PORTIONS OF THE OFFSHORE GA WATERS SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY. OTHERWISE...CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS
THROUGH LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...BSH
SHORT TERM...JRL
LONG TERM...JRL
AVIATION...BSH
MARINE...BSH/JRL



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