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Area Forecast Discussion

193
FXUS62 KCHS 310919
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
519 AM EDT FRI OCT 31 2014

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL OVER THE AREA TODAY. A STRONG
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY
UNSEASONABLY COLD HIGH PRESSURE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE HIGH
WILL EVENTUALLY SHIFT OFFSHORE DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS
ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
EARLY THIS MORNING...A WELL DEFINED SHORT WAVE ON WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHIFT OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST AND IS INDUCING
CYCLOGENESIS ALONG A STALLED FRONT NEAR THE GULF STREAM OFF THE
SOUTH CAROLINA COAST. THE AREA REMAINS RAIN-FREE AS SUBSIDENCE
DEVELOPS AND DRIER AIR ALOFT ADVECTS IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING
SHORT WAVE.

TODAY...THE COASTAL LOW WILL LIFT NORTHEAST ALONG THE STALLED
FRONT OFF THE CAROLINA COAST...LEAVING THE AREA IN A SOMEWHAT
TRANSITIONAL ZONE WITH THE NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE
NORTHWEST. ALOFT...AN UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT
EAST TODAY AND AMPLIFY AS A POTENT UPPER LOW DIVES FROM THE GREAT
LAKES REGION INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. OVERALL...EXPECT MOSTLY SUNNY
TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES TO PREVAIL...WITH NO POTENTIAL FOR ANY
RAINFALL GIVEN A LACK OF DEEP LAYERED MOISTURE OR ANY FORCING
MECHANISM. A NORTH TO NORTHWEST FLOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AND COMBINED WITH LOWERING HEIGHTS ALOFT WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL. HIGHS ARE FORECAST TO ONLY REACH AROUND
70 ACROSS SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA AND THE LOWER 70S ACROSS
SOUTHEAST GEORGIA.

TONIGHT...THE STRENGTHENING UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO DIVE
SOUTHEAST...CROSSING THE SOUTHERLY APPALACHIANS AND SHIFTING INTO
WESTERN SOUTH CAROLINA AND EAST-CENTRAL GEORGIA LATE. AS THIS
OCCURS...A SURFACE LOW WILL DEVELOP NEAR THE EASTERN NORTH
CAROLINA/SOUTH CAROLINA BORDER AND ALLOW A POWERFUL COLD FRONT TO
SWEEP THROUGH THE AREA FROM THE WEST OVERNIGHT. WRAP-AROUND MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW COULD PRODUCE ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA
AFTER MIDNIGHT. SURFACE WINDS WILL RAPIDLY INCREASE LATE TONIGHT
WITH THE ONSET OF INTENSE COLD AIR ADVECTION...WITH TEMPERATURES
DROPPING OFF LATE INTO THE LOWER TO MID 40S FOR LOWS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SATURDAY...MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA BEHIND
A STRONG COLD FRONT PUSHING OFFSHORE EARLY IN THE DAY. A STRONG
UPPER LEVEL CUTOFF LOW WILL BE SHIFTING OFFSHORE NEAR OR JUST NORTH
OF CHARLESTON THE FIRST PART OF THE DAY. THE DEEPEST MOISTURE /UP TO
AROUND 10K FT/ WILL BE ACROSS SOUTH CAROLINA CLOSER TO THE LOW AND
THERE COULD BE SOME SHOWERS IN THESE AREAS. WITH SUCH STEEP
MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES THERE COULD EVEN BE SOME THUNDER AND/OR SMALL
HAIL/GRAUPEL. PROBABLY THE BIGGEST IMPACT THOUGH WILL BE THE WINDS
WHICH COULD GUST NEAR 40 MPH...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST AND ACROSS
SOUTHEAST GEORGIA WHERE THE STRONGEST PRESSURE GRADIENT AND
LOW-LEVEL JET IS ANTICIPATED. THUS...A WIND ADVISORY REMAINS
POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS...ESPECIALLY FOR ELEVATED ROADWAYS. TEMPS
WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH THE LOWER 50S NEAR CHARLESTON WHERE MORE
CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED BUT MID TO POSSIBLY UPPER 50S ARE LIKELY TO THE
SOUTH...WARMEST NEAR THE ALTAMAHA RIVER.

SATURDAY NIGHT...SOME IMPROVEMENT EXPECTED AS THE LOW PULLS AWAY AND
HIGH PRESSURE STARTS TO BUILD IN. WINDS WILL EVENTUALLY
DIMINISH...ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTHEAST GEORGIA. COLD ADVECTION WILL
PUSH TEMPS INTO THE MID/UPPER 30S INLAND AND CLOSER TO 40 AROUND THE
COAST. SHOULD BE A BIT TOO WINDY/DRY FOR MUCH FROST.

SUNDAY...IMPROVING CONDITIONS AS THE LOW PULLS FARTHER
AWAY...ALTHOUGH IT WILL REMAIN BREEZY THE FIRST PART OF THE
DAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTH CAROLINA. SHOULD BE A BIT WARMER THAN
SATURDAY GIVEN MORE SUNSHINE...BUT STILL WELL BELOW NORMAL.

SUNDAY NIGHT...THE COLDEST NIGHT OVERALL AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES
CLOSER TO THE AREA LEADING TO LIGHT WINDS...ESPECIALLY INLAND. TEMPS
COULD TOUCH THE FREEZING MARK IN THE SHELTERED INLAND AREAS.
THUS...A FREEZE WATCH MAY EVENTUALLY BE NEEDED. EITHER WAY
CONDITIONS LOOK FAVORABLE FOR SOME FROST SO A FROST ADVISORY IS ALSO
A POSSIBILITY.

MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES CLOSE TO THE SC COAST WITH A
MODERATION IN TEMPS EXPECTED...LIKELY GETTING BACK A BIT CLOSER TO
NORMAL IN THE UPPER 60S...AT LEAST ACROSS SOUTHEAST GEORGIA.

LAKE WINDS...WINDS WILL BE STRONG AND GUSTY SATURDAY INTO EARLY
SUNDAY BEHIND A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY.
STRONG COLD ADVECTION OVER THE WARMER LAKE WATERS WILL MAKE FOR VERY
UNSTABLE CONDITIONS WHICH WILL ALLOW STRONG LOW-LEVEL WINDS TO MIX
DOWN TO THE SURFACE...LIKELY AROUND 35 KT AT TIMES...POSSIBLY CLOSE
TO 40 KT. THUS...A LAKE WIND ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE LOOKS TO SLIDE OFFSHORE THROUGH MID WEEK WITH
MODERATING TEMPERATURES GETTING BACK ABOVE NORMAL TUESDAY. A COLD
FRONT LOOKS TO APPROACH LATER IN THE WEEK...POSSIBLY MOVING THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT. LIMITED MOISTURE WITH THE FRONT MEANS LITTLE TO NO
RAIN CHANCES HOWEVER.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
TEMPORARY MVFR VISIBILITIES ARE POSSIBLE AT KSAV THROUGH ABOUT
13Z. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT KCHS AND
KSAV THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE SATURDAY...MAINLY AT
KCHS...ALONG WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS. WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE
THE MAIN IMPACT HOWEVER...GUSTING AROUND 30 KT...ESPECIALLY AT
KSAV. NO IMPACTS EXPECTED SUN-WED.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY...THE SURFACE PRESSURE WILL REMAIN FAIRLY TIGHT THIS MORNING
AS LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DEVELOP NEAR THE GULF STREAM OFF THE
SOUTH CAROLINA COAST...WITH NORTHERLY WINDS UPWARDS OF 15-20 KT
POSSIBLE. THE GRADIENT WILL WEAKEN THIS AFTERNOON AS THE LOW
BEGINS TO LIFT NORTHEAST OFF THE CAROLINA COAST...WITH WINDS
DIMINISHING TO 15 KT OR LESS AND GRADUALLY BACKING TO THE
NORTHWEST ACROSS THE GEORGIA WATERS. SEAS WILL RANGE 2-4 FT.

TONIGHT...WESTERLY WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE EVENING WITH
SPEEDS 15 KT OR LESS. THEN...A POWERFUL COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH
LATE TONIGHT CAUSING WINDS TO RAPIDLY INCREASE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
THE GEORGIA WATERS. THERE WILL LIKELY BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS LATE TONIGHT BEFORE GALE
WATCHES/WARNINGS TAKE EFFECT...SO JUST INDICATE THE INCREASING
TREND IN THE FORECAST. SEAS WILL BUILD TO 3-5 FT.

SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...DANGEROUS CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVER THE
ATLANTIC WATERS SATURDAY BEHIND A STRONG COLD FRONT...POSSIBLY INTO
THE HARBOR AS WELL. GALES ARE EXPECTED BEYOND 20 NM AND ARE LIKELY
WITHIN THE NEARSHORE WATERS INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. MARINERS SHOULD
ALSO KEEP IN MIND THAT THE STRONG OFFSHORE WINDS WILL PUSH TIDES
LOWER THAN NORMAL DURING THIS PERIOD. IMPROVING CONDITIONS EXPECTED
LATER SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH WINDS DROPPING BELOW ADVISORY
LEVELS BY EARLY AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH SEAS WILL TAKE A BIT LONGER TO
DO SO BEYOND 20 NM. NO ISSUES FROM SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WED ALTHOUGH
SEAS WILL BE BUILDING BACK UP LATER IN THE PERIOD GIVEN THE
PERSISTENT EAST WINDS ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF HIGH PRESSURE.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
VERY BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS EXPECTED SATURDAY BEHIND A STRONG
COLD FRONT. WINDS COULD GUST NEAR 40 MPH...ESPECIALLY OVER
SOUTHEAST GEORGIA. THIS IS WHERE FUEL MOISTURES APPEAR TO BE
LOWEST GIVEN THE LACK OF RECENT RAINFALL. AT THIS TIME MINIMUM
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES ARE NOT EXPECTED TO REACH CRITICAL THRESHOLDS
/25 PERCENT/ BUT THIS COULD CHANGE IF THE AIR MASS IS A BIT WARMER
AND/OR DRIER THAN CURRENTLY EXPECTED. CONDITIONS COULD BE A BIT
DRIER SUNDAY ALTHOUGH WINDS WILL BE MUCH LOWER. IN ANY
EVENT...LAND MANAGERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO PAY ATTENTION TO THE
LATEST FORECASTS THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD LOW MAX TEMPERATURES FOR SAT NOV 1...
KCHS 56 /1993/...
KSAV 52 /1925/...
KCXM 52 /1925/...

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 6 AM EDT SATURDAY TO 11 AM EST SUNDAY
     FOR SCZ045.
MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE SATURDAY NIGHT
     FOR AMZ330-350-352-354.
     GALE WARNING FROM 6 AM EDT SATURDAY TO 5 AM EST SUNDAY FOR
     AMZ374.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...JAQ
SHORT TERM...RJB
LONG TERM...RJB
AVIATION...JAQ/RJB
MARINE...JAQ/RJB
FIRE WEATHER...
CLIMATE...






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