« Back
NWS Peachtree City, Ga » Text Product » CHS Area Forecast Discussion


Printer-friendly Version
Current Version              Previous Versions:   1  2  3  4  5  6  7  8  9  

Area Forecast Discussion

272
FXUS62 KCHS 310521
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
121 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK. A COLD FRONT COULD DISSIPATE OVER OR NEAR THE REGION LATE
NEXT WEEK...FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
THE REST OF THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD REVOLVES AROUND TWO MAIN WEATHER
PHENOMENON. THE FIRST IS SOME MARINE BASED SHOWERS/T-STORMS THAT
WILL ATTEMPT TO ADVECT ONSHORE WITHIN THE SE AND SOUTH SYNOPTIC
FLOW INTO CHARLESTON AND BERKELEY COUNTIES. WE HAVE CARRIED 20
POPS TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS ACTIVITY THAT DEVELOPS OVER THE ATLANTIC
AND MOVES ONSHORE. WHILE WE CAN/T RULE OUT A FEW SHOWERS SKIRTING
THE REST OF THE COASTAL ZONES...RAIN CHANCES ARE HELD UNDER 15
PERCENT IN THESE LOCATIONS. THE SECOND WEATHER CONCERN WOULD BE
THE POSSIBILITY OF FOG CLOSER TO SUNRISE. THE GROUND IS STILL TOO
WARM AND WE HAVEN/T HAD MUCH RAINFALL THE PAST COUPLE OF WEEKS.
THUS WE WILL REFRAIN FROM ADDING ANY AT THIS TIME AND MAINTAIN A
WEATHER WATCH.

WARM AND MUGGY CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT WITHIN THE ONSHORE FETCH WILL
HOLD TEMPS SEVERAL DEGREES SEASONAL NORMS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
UNDER DEEP LAYERED HIGH PRESSURE...TYPICALLY HOT AND HUMID
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. MARINE MOISTURE
COULD SUPPORT ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
COASTAL COUNTIES EACH MORNING...THEN DIURNAL SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
WILL FIRE EACH AFTERNOON PRIMARILY ALONG THE SEA BREEZE. CONVECTION
SHOULD THEN DISSIPATE PER DIURNAL COOLING/STABILIZATION EACH NIGHT.

DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT...LIMITED POPS TO
SLIGHT/CHANCE/CHANCE THROUGH THE PERIOD. 30/12Z GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
THAT THIS RIDGE COULD WEAKEN SLIGHTLY MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...PERHAPS
SUPPORTING SOMEWHAT GREATER SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE. HOWEVER...
THESE CHANGES ARE SUBTLE...AND GIVEN THE PERSISTENT CAP DEPICTED BY
MODEL SOUNDINGS SIGNIFICANTLY HIGHER POPS ARE NOT JUSTIFIED MONDAY
AND TUESDAY.

AS PWATS INCREASE TOWARD 2 INCHES...THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN WILL INCREASE...ESPECIALLY MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THE POTENTIAL
FOR SEVERE WEATHER SHOULD REMAIN LOW THROUGH THE PERIOD.

OTHERWISE...DAILY HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S AND DEWPOINTS IN THE
UPPER 60S TO MID 70S WILL PRODUCE HEAT INDEX VALUES AROUND 100F EACH
DAY. NIGHTTIME TEMPS WILL BOTTOM OUT IN THE 70S MOST
LOCATIONS...PERHAPS REMAINING AROUND 80F ON THE BEACHES.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LITTLE CHANGE WAS MADE TO THE GOING FORECAST IN THE LONG TERM
PERIOD. THE SOUTHEAST REGION WILL REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE
RIDGE ALOFT...WHICH WILL ACTUALLY EXPAND BACK EASTWARD AND
STRENGTHEN IN THE MID/LATE TIME FRAME. ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL
STILL BE THE PRIMARY SURFACE FEATURE AS IT EXTENDS WESTWARD ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA. THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS THAT A FRONT WILL
ATTEMPT TO APPROACH FROM THE NORTH LATE IN THE PERIOD...BUT GIVEN
THE OVERALL PATTERN THE EXPECTATION IS FOR IT TO REMAIN NORTH OF THE
AREA. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WHILE WE CAN/T RULE OUT A LITTLE FOG AND/OR STRATUS CLOSE TO
DAYBREAK AT THE TERMINALS...ODDS FAVOR BOTH KCHS AND KSAV TO
REMAIN VFR THROUGH 06Z MONDAY. LITTLE TO NO CHANCE FOR ANY IMPACTS
FROM SHRA/TSRA THROUGH THE VALID TAF CYCLE.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...LOW CHANCES OF DIRECT IMPACTS FROM
ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THURSDAY. ALSO...LOW
CHANCES FOR EARLY MORNING FOG/STRATUS. OTHERWISE...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
REST OF TONIGHT...SE FLOW WILL STEADILY VEER TO MORE
SOUTHERLY...WHILE SPEEDS REMAIN LESS THAN 15 KT. SEAS WILL RANGE
FROM 2 TO 3 FT...HIGHEST ACROSS AMZ374. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND T-STORMS WILL PREVAIL AS THEY DRIFT NORTH.

SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED TO THE
EAST OF THE LOCAL WATERS WILL BE THE PRIMARY FEATURE THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. WINDS/SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO STAY BELOW SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS.

SUNDAY...CONDITIONS COULD ONCE AGAIN BECOME FAVORABLE FOR
WATERSPOUTS IN THE MORNING. OTHERWISE...LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS
INCLUDING THE LAND BREEZE WILL GIVE WAY TO S/SE WINDS LESS THAN 15
KT AS THE SEA BREEZE DEVELOPS. SUNDAY NIGHT...WINDS WILL TURN TOWARD
THE S/SW AT 10-15 KT. MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...S/SW WINDS WILL
PREVAIL. ENHANCED BY THE AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE AS HIGH AS 15 KT AND
BY NOCTURNAL SURGES AS HIGH AS 15-20 KT. SEAS WILL GENERALLY BE 1-3
FT ACROSS THE NEARSHORE WATERS AND AS HIGH AS 3-4 FT FOR THE OUTER
WATERS.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...SPR
LONG TERM...BSH
AVIATION...
MARINE...






USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.