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Area Forecast Discussion

350
FXUS62 KCHS 281124
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
624 AM EST FRI NOV 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH FROM THE NORTH TUESDAY...WITH AN INLAND WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN ITS WAKE FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A WEAKLY MODIFIED CONTINENTAL POLAR AIR MASS WILL CONTINUE TO
BLANKET SE GEORGIA AND THE CAROLINAS TODAY. SURFACE HIGH PRES WILL
BUILD INTO THE SE STATES WHILE THE UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO PULL
AWAY FROM THE MID ATLC AND NEW ENGLAND. FULL SUNSHINE IS LIKELY
TODAY BUT LOW LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES ARE INDEED CHILLY AND BARELY
SUPPORTIVE OF 50 DEGREE MAX TEMPS MANY AREAS N OF I-16 TODAY. WE
LOWERED HIGH TEMPS A DEGREE OR SO IN MANY SPOTS BUT OVERALL...VERY
MINOR TWEAKS NEEDED TO A SOLID PERSISTENCE FORECAST. WINDS WILL
BECOME LIGHT THIS AFTERNOON AND QUICKLY GO CALM AFTER SUNSET.
IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS ON TAP TONIGHT WITH DRY AIR
IN PLACE AND THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS RIGHT OVERHEAD. WE LOWERED MIN
TEMPS A COUPLE DEGREES OVER INLAND AREAS TO INDICATE THE POTENTIAL
FOR MID 20S IN NORMALLY COLDER SPOTS SUCH AS ALLENDALE. MUCH OF
THE FORECAST AREAS WILL SEE FREEZING OR SUB-FREEZING TEMPS EARLY
SAT MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL PROGRESS THROUGH THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN UNITED STATES DURING THE PERIOD WHILE THE ARCTIC HIGH AT THE
SURFACE SHIFTS OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
WILL CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY AS THE CENTER OF THE COLD HIGH REMAINS
OVERHEAD. DESPITE SUNNY SKIES...HIGHS WILL BARELY REACH 60.

THE 850 MB RIDGE WILL STRENGTHEN OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST WITH THE
SURFACE HIGH ALSO SLIPPING OFF THE COAST AND ALLOWING A WARM
ADVECTION REGIME TO SETUP OVER THE AREA. HIGHS WILL SOAR BACK INTO
THE LOWER 70S BOTH DAYS WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A RELATIVELY ZONAL UPPER LEVEL FLOW DURING THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL
ALLOW FOR A SERIES OF CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEMS TO DROP IN FROM
THE NORTHWEST. THE INITIAL SYSTEM WILL PUSH A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT
INTO THE AREA ON TUESDAY WITH A WEAK WEDGE PATTERN SETTING UP
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. A REINFORCING AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
WILL DROP IN THURSDAY AND PERSIST INTO FRIDAY. RELATIVELY WEAK
SOUTHERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED MID TO LATE WEEK...REDUCING RAIN CHANCES.
THE BEST CHANCE OF RAIN WILL BE OVER THE MARINE AREA WHERE A
PERSISTENT COASTAL TROUGH ENHANCES CONVERGENCE. WE BUMPED HIGH TEMPS
DOWN A FEW DEGREES EACH DAY TO FEATURE 60S MOST AREAS.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT KCHS AND KSAV THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH
MONDAY. MVFR OR LOWER CEILINGS POSSIBLE ON TUESDAY AS A FRONT DROPS
IN FROM THE NORTH.

&&

.MARINE...
ONGOING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN EXTENDED A FEW MORE HOURS
FOR NEAR SHORE WATERS BETWEEN 10-20 NM OFFSHORE WHERE NW FLOW WAS
STILL CLOSE TO 20 KT WITH GUSTS TOPPING 25 KT. COLD AIR ADVECTION
WILL SHUT DOWN BY MIDDAY WITH WINDS AND SEAS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE SURFACE HIGH DRAWS CLOSER. OUR
OUTER GEORGIA WATERS WILL BE THE LAST TO SEE THIS DOWNWARD TREND
AND SEAS UNLIKELY TO SUBSIDE BELOW CRITERIA UNTIL AT LEAST MID
AFTERNOON.

CONDITIONS RELATIVELY TRANQUIL TONIGHT AS HIGH PRES SETTLES OVER
THE COASTAL AREAS WITH WINDS BELOW 10 KT AND SEAS 2 FT NEAR SHORE
AND 3-4 FT OUT NEAR THE GULF STREAM.

FAIRLY WEAK WINDS/SEAS SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. A TIGHTENING
NORTHEAST GRADIENT WILL DEVELOP ON TUESDAY AS COLD HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS FROM THE NORTH. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE POSSIBLE LATE
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY WHEN THE GRADIENT IS TIGHTEST. FOR THE REST
OF THE WEEK THE WINDS/SEAS LOOK A BIT WEAKER AS THE PRIMARY HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILDS MORE FULLY OVER THE WATERS.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR AMZ350-
     352-354.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR AMZ374.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...JRL
LONG TERM...JRL
AVIATION...
MARINE...JRL






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