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Area Forecast Discussion

004
FXUS62 KCHS 271923
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
323 PM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
TONIGHT...THE WEATHER PATTERN WILL REMAIN NEARLY UNCHANGED WITH
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE ATLANTIC. ALOFT...THE
FORECAST AREA WILL BE LOCATED ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF
PERSISTENT UPPER RIDGE. APPROACHING SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL LIKELY
MAINTAIN SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS INLAND EARLY THIS EVENING...HOWEVER
ACTIVITY WILL BEGIN TO DIE DOWN FAIRLY QUICKLY AFTER SUNSET WITH
LOSS OF HEATING. A FEW STRONGER STORMS MAY OCCUR WHERE BOUNDARIES
INTERACT...HOWEVER MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND CAPE VALUES ARE
PRETTY UNIMPRESSIVE SO SEVERE THREAT WILL BE QUITE LOW. GUSTY
WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITHIN ANY STRONGER STORMS THAT DO OCCUR.

LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL...MAINLY IN THE MID TO UPPER
60S. GIVEN CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT/NEARLY CALM WINDS...SOME
LIGHT FOG MAY DEVELOP INLAND ESPECIALLY WHERE RAIN IS EXPECTED TO
FALL. HOWEVER AT THIS POINT DO NOT ANTICIPATE IT TO BE
WIDESPREAD...SO HAVE KEPT MENTION OUT OF FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WITH DEEP LAYERED HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE THROUGH
SATURDAY...CONDITIONS SHOULD BE SEASONABLY WARM INTO THE FIRST
HALF OF THE WEEKEND WITH TEMPS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 70S AT THE
BEACHES TO THE UPPER 80S INLAND. WITH GENERAL SUBSIDENCE IN
PLACE...SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY WILL NOT GENERATE TOO MUCH CONVECTION
AS IT MOVES INLAND ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. RIGHT
NOW...JUST SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED AWAY
FROM THE COAST WITH MANY PLACES REMAINING DRY.

SATURDAY...A VERY WEAK SURFACE WAVE WILL MOVE IN FROM THE ATLANTIC
ON SATURDAY...INCREASING THE CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS A
BIT WITH AN SLIGHT INCREASE IN SURFACE CONVERGENCE...BUT WITH
RIDGING STILL IN PLACE ALOFT...LOW END CHANCE CATEGORY LOOKS LIKE
THE BEST FORECAST FOR NOW DUE TO LACKING SYNOPTIC SUPPORT. TEMPS
WILL AGAIN BE WITHIN A COUPLE OF DEGREES OF NORMAL FOR THE END OF
MAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL EXTEND OVER THE REGION THROUGH MOST OF THE
LONG TERM PERIOD...ALTHOUGH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO
ENCROACH ON THE SOUTHEAST U.S. TOWARD THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. AT
THE SURFACE...ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL GENERALLY PREVAIL INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. THERE IS THEN SOME INDICATION THAT HIGH PRESSURE
WILL TRY TO BUILD FROM THE NORTH TOWARD THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK...CAUSING A WEAK COASTAL TROUGH TO DEVELOP JUST OFFSHORE.
OVERALL...MOISTURE ADVECTION FROM A SYNOPTIC ONSHORE FLOW AND LOW
LEVEL CONVERGENCE WITH THE SEA BREEZE SHOULD SUPPORT ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY...WITH THE GREATEST
COVERAGE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH THE NEARING UPPER TROUGH AND
DEVELOPMENT OF THE WEAK COASTAL TROUGH JUST OFFSHORE. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY. AFTERNOON
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN INLAND FROM THE
TERMINALS SO HAVE KEPT MENTION OUT OF THE TAF. WILL AMEND IF
NEEDED.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL
THURSDAY THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH ONLY A SMALL CHANCE OF LOWER
CIGS/VSBYS IN RW/TRW THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT...QUIET MARINE CONDITIONS EXPECTED AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS IN PLACE OVER THE ATLANTIC. SOUTHEAST WINDS
GENERALLY 10 KT OR LESS WITH SEAS 2-3 FEET...HIGHEST IN THE OUTER
WATERS.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE OVER THE WATERS THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK...GENERALLY MAINTAINING AN ONSHORE FLOW WITH SPEEDS OF
AROUND 15 KT OR LESS. DESPITE THE WEAK WIND SPEEDS...FAVORABLE
TRAJECTORIES WILL RESULT IN SEAS OF 2-4 FT ACROSS THE WATERS...WITH
SOME SEAS TO 5 FEET IN THE OUTER GEORGIA WATERS SATURDAY AS A WEAK
SURFACE TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE WATERS.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...ECT
SHORT TERM...FWA
LONG TERM...JAQ
AVIATION...ECT
MARINE...ECT/FWA



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