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Area Forecast Discussion

658
FXUS62 KCHS 260806
AFDCHS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston SC
406 AM EDT FRI AUG 26 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure centered to the north will prevail into Monday. Low
pressure will then persist into late next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Deep layered ridge and its accompanying dry airmass will remain
in place through tonight, maintaining rain-free conditions.
Afternoon temps will peak in the low/mid 90s while tonight`s lows
will generally be in the lower 70s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Saturday/Sunday: High pressure will remain centered north of the
area this weekend which will maintain a deep onshore flow. The
deeper moisture should remain farther south so southeast Georgia
will likely have the best chance of showers, especially near the
coast where the best low-level convergence will be. Temperatures
should be slightly above normal, with highs in the lower to mid 90s
inland and lows Saturday night in the mid to upper 70s except
closer to 80 at the coast.

Monday: Weak low pressure, possibly a tropical cyclone, is forecast
to be near the Florida Keys. Also, the upper ridge will break down
as upper-level low pressure shifts westward toward the coast.
Although the deepest tropical moisture looks to remain southeast of
the area rain chances should be a bit higher given the weakening
ridging. More cloud cover should help keep temperatures down closer
to normal, generally around 90 most locales.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
There is still fairly high uncertainty this period as much depends
on the strength/track of low pressure which is expected to be in the
eastern Gulf of Mexico to start the period. Stuck with WPC guidance
for the most part which indicates the low hanging near the
central/eastern Gulf Coast into Friday with troughing extending
northeast through southeast SC/GA. This should lead to increased
cloud cover, better rain chances and temperatures closer to
normal.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR.

Extended Aviation Outlook: Mostly VFR, although there will be an
increased risk of flight restrictions in showers/possible
thunderstorms toward the middle of next week depending on the
track of low pressure which is likely to be in the eastern Gulf of
Mexico early next week.

&&

.MARINE...
E flow to persist through tonight as surface high pressure remains
over the northern Atlantic. Speeds will be less than 15 kt with
seas no higher than 4 ft.

Saturday through Tuesday: High pressure centered north of the area
will prevail into Monday before giving way to a weak trough moving
into the area ahead of low pressure in the eastern Gulf of Mexico.
This pattern will favor east/northeast winds mainly 15 kt or less
with some higher gusts, especially across the GA waters beyond 20
nm. Seas will slowly build from 2-4 ft to 3-5 ft into early next
week. Thus, the risk for Advisories is low at this time, especially
across the nearshore waters.

Rip currents: Persistent onshore winds and a small long period swell
could produce an elevated risk of rip currents this weekend into
early next week.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Tides are expected to remain higher than normal given the persistent
onshore winds and could reach high enough to produce minor saltwater
inundation in the typical areas along the lower SC coast during the
late day high tide cycles into early next week. Thus, Coastal Flood
Advisories may eventually be needed.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
SC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...JRL
SHORT TERM...RJB
LONG TERM...RJB
AVIATION...JRL/RJB
MARINE...JRL/RJB
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...RJB



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