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Area Forecast Discussion

617
FXUS62 KCHS 260005
AFDCHS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston SC
805 PM EDT SAT JUN 25 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will shift slowly through the area tonight and Sunday
before dissipating. Another front will impact the area beginning
Tuesday, becoming nearly stationary into Wednesday then
dissipating. Atlantic high pressure will rebuild Friday into the
weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
Main weather concern this evening will be the possibility of
isolated severe thunderstorms as numerous mesoscale boundaries
interact in an moderately unstable atmosphere with dry mid/upper
levels which could lead to damaging winds.

Otherwise, a weak cold front will advance slowly south through
the area overnight while high pressure wedges inland across the
Carolinas and into Georgia in its wake. A more stable air mass
will gradually overspread the area from north to south, allowing
convection to dwindle between sunset and midnight. Although the
threat of severe weather will decline with sunset this evening,
some showers and thunderstorms will be possible mainly near and
south of the Savannah River and along the SC coast. Overnight low
temps should cool into the low/mid 70s for most inland areas
behind the front and some light fog will be possible.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Sunday: A broad upper ridge will remain positioned over the
central United States while surface high pressure sits off the New
England coast. A diffuse frontal boundary will be pushing into the
southern half of the area with slightly cooler and drier air
moving in from the north. This will yield a high temperature map
ranging from the lower 90s north to middle 90s south. The
prevailing northeast flow will produce the best inland movement of
the sea breeze across southeast GA. This is also where better
low-level instability and boundary layer moisture will be present.
We therefore show scattered showers and tstms, mainly in the
afternoon, across far southern areas with lower coverage farther
north. Severe potential appears nominal though an isolated severe
storm is possible.

Monday: Temperatures will rebound slightly as the in-situ front
dissipates and Atlantic high pressure begins to rebuild. Dewpoints
will likely mix out during the afternoon so only isolated
convection is expected.

Tuesday: Likely the most active day as the upper ridge flattens
and a vort moves into the area during the day. A surface cold
front is progged to move into the area from the west in the
afternoon. Fairly deep westerly flow will precede the front so it
may be dry for a portion of the day until the front draws closer.
We therefore delayed the best pops until the afternoon. No
convective indices are particularly impressive so the overall
severe threat is low, but we could see some locally heavy
rainfall. Highs will be in the low to mid 90s.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
The long term forecast remains essentially unchanged and still
revolves around the front that is expected to push into the area and
become nearly stationary mid week. The front is then progged to
remain in the vicinity of the forecast area through late in the week
and will serve as a source of improved moisture and low level
convergence to support increased coverage of showers and
thunderstorms. For now, the forecast features mid to high range
chance pops each day with lingering pops through the overnight. As
the time draws closer and confidence grows in the placement of the
lingering front, more detail can be put into the forecast for which
periods are most likely to see the best rain chances. Highs will be
around 90 each day with lows in the mid 70s.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VCTS at KCHS around 00Z should end soon thereafter so we did not
initialize with TS based on latest radar trends. Thunderstorms
could impact KSAV through about 04Z but confidence too low to
mention yet. Thunderstorms could produce strong winds and heavy
rain. There is also a risk of mainly MVFR cigs and/or vsbys at
both terms toward 12Z Sun as low- level moisture lingers behind a
weak cold front, but again confidence too low to mention at this
time.

Extended Aviation Outlook: Low end chances for direct impacts from
afternoon/evening thunderstorms on Sunday. Chances then will
increase Tuesday through Thursday.

&&

.MARINE...
This Evening and Tonight: A cold front will slip into our South
Carolina waters this evening, making it to Georgia waters late.
Chances of showers and thunderstorms will be possible along/near the
front, some possibly strong with damaging winds. High pressure will
then wedge inland and push south/southeast in wake of the cold
front. As a result, southerly flow at or below 10-15 kt should begin
to back to the east/southeast late. Seas will range between 2-3 ft
over most waters.

Easterly winds Sunday will gradually shift to southeast on Monday,
then south to southwest Tuesday and thereafter as Atlantic high
pressure rebuilds. The strongest winds will be along the coast
during the afternoon when a 10-15 kt sea breeze develops.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Charleston Airport tied the record high temperature of 99 degrees
today set in 1977.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
SC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...RJB
SHORT TERM...JRL
LONG TERM...BSH
AVIATION...DPB/RJB
MARINE...DPB/JRL
CLIMATE...



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