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Area Forecast Discussion

666
FXUS62 KCHS 032029
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
429 PM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTHEAST UP THE COAST
OVERNIGHT BEFORE MOVING AWAY FROM THE FORECAST AREA ON TUESDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST INTO WEDNESDAY.
AN INLAND TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP BY THURSDAY AND A
COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
A PLUME OF MOISTURE CONTINUES TO STREAM UP THE SOUTHEAST COAST
AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED NEAR JACKSONVILLE FL. HEAVIEST
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE REMAINED ALONG AND WEST OF
INTERSTATE 95...WHERE MOISTURE CONVERGENCE IS THE HIGHEST...THIS
AFTERNOON. HIGHEST RADAR DERIVED ACCUMULATIONS...AS HIGH AS AROUND
4 INCHES SINCE SUNRISE...HAVE MAINLY OCCURRED ALONG A LINE
STRETCHING FROM EVANS COUNTY GA TO NORTHERN COLLETON COUNTY SC.
PWATS NEAR 2.2 INCHES CONTINUE TO MAKE HEAVY RAIN AND ISOLATED
FLOODING OF LOW LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS THE PRIMARY THREAT
THROUGH THE EVENING. THE POSSIBILITY FOR CONVECTION TO INITIATE ON
THE WEAK SEABREEZE ALONG THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST REMAINS THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON AS WELL.

THE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT NORTHEASTWARD OVERNIGHT AS IT
MERGES WITH A SHORTWAVE CROSSING THE MID-ATLANTIC. THE FAVORABLE
AREA FOR PRECIP SHOULD SHIFT CLOSER TO THE COAST IN SOUTHEASTERN
SOUTH CAROLINA AS THE LOW CROSSES THE AREA. OVERALL RAINFALL
INTENSITY SHOULD DECREASE SIGNIFICANTLY WITH THE LOSS OF DIURNAL
HEATING...BUT BRIEF DOWNPOURS IN THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY OVER THE SOUTH CAROLINA WATERS...THROUGH THE
NIGHT. PATCHY FOG IS ALSO POSSIBLE INLAND WHERE RAIN HAS FALLEN
THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO HIGH SURFACE MOISTURE...LIGHT WINDS...AND
SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS. LOW WILL MAINLY BE IN THE MID 70S.


&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...SHORTWAVE ENERGY ALOFT WILL PULL AWAY
FROM THE AREA TO THE NORTHEAST AS THE REGION REMAINS ON THE SOUTHERN
PERIPHERY OF THE LONGWAVE TROUGH THAT ENCOMPASSES MUCH OF EASTERN
CANADA AND THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS. AT THE SURFACE...THE SLOWLY
MEANDERING WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ALONG THE FORECAST
AREA COASTLINE AND EVENTUALLY BECOME AN OPEN WAVE AND LIFT OUT TO
THE NORTHEAST. IN THE MORNING...IT APPEARS THE EASTERN REACHES OF
THE FORECAST AREA WILL STILL BE DEALING WITH THE DEEP ATLANTIC
MOISTURE FEED AND CORRESPONDING SHOWER ACTIVITY. HAVE INCREASED POPS
ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF CHARLESTON AND BERKELEY COUNTIES TO 40-
50. THE REST OF THE DAY...DRIER AIR WILL WORK ITS WAY INTO THE AREA
AND RAIN CHANCES WILL BE QUITE MINIMAL. OVERNIGHT...THE FORECAST IS
DRY AS HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS IN. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOW 90S
EAST...RANGING TO THE MID/UPPER 90S FOR INTERIOR SOUTHEAST GEORGIA.
LOWS WILL FALL INTO THE MID/UPPER 70S.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...WEDNESDAY LOOKS LIKE THE MOST BENIGN
DAY WITH LIMITED CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL WITH JUST A WEAK LEE TROUGH.
DRIER LOW LEVELS WILL HELP RESULT IN VERY LITTLE SURFACE BASED
INSTABILITY. JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE POP IS IN PLACE FOR DIURNAL
CONVECTION. BY THURSDAY...MOISTURE IS A BIT BETTER AND THE INLAND
TROUGH BECOMES BETTER DEFINED AS A WELL DEFINED SHORTWAVE ALOFT
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. DIURNAL CONVECTION CHANCES WILL BE
BETTER...WITH 30 POPS IN PLACE FOR LAND AREAS. THE WARMEST DAY WILL
BE WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID/UPPER 90S...AND LOW/MID 90S ON
THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
A PERSISTENT UPPER TROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY WILL
MAINTAIN AN INLAND SURFACE TROUGH AND ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. GREATER COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS
EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY. THE UPPER RIDGE MAY ATTEMPT TO REBUILD
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WHICH COULD DECREASE CONVECTIVE COVERAGE SOMEWHAT.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
KCHS...SHOWERS ARE BEGINNING TO WORK INTO THE TERMINAL AREA AT
20Z. THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN POSSIBLE AT THE TERMINAL MAINLY THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH THE HIGHEST POTENTIAL FOR STORMS TO PASS OVER THE
TERMINAL THROUGH ABOUT 22Z. DEEP MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO FUNNEL
INTO THE REGION THROUGH THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...NECESSITATING
VCSH IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THIS PERIOD. CEILINGS COULD
TEMPORARILY DROP BELOW 3 KFT OVERNIGHT...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW AND
CEILING REDUCTIONS IF ANY SHOULD BE TEMPORARY..SO VFR CONDITIONS
HAVE REMAINED IN THE FORECAST FOR NOW. DRY CONDITIONS SHOULD
DOMINATE BY SUNRISE AND TOMORROW WILL SEE VFR CONDITIONS.

KSAV...AS THE AREA OF GREATEST CONVERGENCE MOVES NORTH OF
SAVANNAH...EXPECT SHOWER COVERAGE TO DECREASE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. SKIES WILL BEGIN TO CLEAR AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES NORTH
OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT AND VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PERSIST OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT AND TOMORROW.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MAIN CONCERNS ARE OCCASIONAL REDUCTIONS
IN VISIBILITY AND/OR CEILING DUE TO SHOWERS AND TSTMS. ALTHOUGH
IMPACTS CANNOT BE RULED OUT ANY DAY...GREATER COVERAGE IS EXPECTED
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
THROUGH TONIGHT...A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT
THROUGH TONIGHT FOR THE OFFSHORE GA WATERS AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES
UP THE SOUTHEAST COAST. SEAS IN THE 5 TO 7 FT RANGE AND GUSTS OVER
25 KTS...ESPECIALLY SEAWARD OF THE GREYS REEF BUOY WHERE THE
NOCTURNAL JET WILL BE THE HIGHEST...CAN BE EXPECTED IN THIS AREA.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY DOWNPOURS ARE POSSIBLE
THROUGHOUT THE EVENING AND INTO THE LATE NIGHT HOURS...ESPECIALLY
FOR AMZ350.

TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE
LOCAL WATERS INTO THE WEEKEND. THERE WILL BE PERIODS OF ENHANCED
FLOW...PRIMARILY WITH NOCTURNAL SURGES AND THE AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE
ALONG THE LAND/SEA INTERFACE. THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE OUTER
GEORGIA WATERS WILL COME DOWN TUESDAY MORNING AS SEAS SUBSIDE TO
LESS THAN 6 FT. OTHERWISE...WINDS WILL GENERALLY TOP OUT IN THE 15-
20 KT RANGE DURING THE PERIODS OF SURGING. SEAS WILL BE HIGHEST
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...UP TO 5 FT AROUND 20 NM AND BEYOND. FROM
WEDNESDAY ONWARD SEAS WILL BE IN THE 2-3 FT RANGE FOR THE NEARSHORE
WATERS AND THE 3-4 FT RANGE FOR THE OUTER WATERS.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR AMZ374.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...CEB
SHORT TERM...BSH
LONG TERM...JRL
AVIATION...CEB
MARINE...BSH/CEB



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