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Area Forecast Discussion

524
FXUS62 KCHS 191745
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
1245 PM EST FRI DEC 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING.
UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED LATER TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
AS SEVERAL DISTURBANCES SHIFT OVER THE REGION. A STRONG COLD FRONT
WILL EVENTUALLY SHIFT THROUGH THE AREA WEDNESDAY WITH DRYER
CONDITIONS TO FOLLOW THROUGH LATE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
EARLY FRIDAY AFTERNOON...SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTED A GRADUAL
DIMINISHING COVERAGE TREND OF MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS CROSSING THE
AREA. THUS FAR...CLOUDS HAVE LIMITED TEMPERATURE RECOVERY...BUT A
GENERAL INCREASE IN INSOLATION SHOULD STILL ALLOW TEMPS TO PUSH
INTO THE LOWER TO MID 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
VERY FAST UPPER FLOW ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES CONTINUES TO MAKE
FOR A TRICKY FORECAST INTRODUCING POPS TONIGHT. ALTHOUGH MODELS
MAINTAIN SIMILAR QPF TIMING FROM PREVIOUS RUNS... A SOMEWHAT QUICKER
PROGRESSION OF RAINS IS POSSIBLE AND WE HAD TO MAKE ONLY MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS FROM OUR PREVIOUS THINKING GIVEN CONSENSUS OF CONDENSATION
DEFICIT PROGS AND INITIAL ARRIVAL OF UPPER FORCING. SPRINKLES AND
PATCHY LIGHT RAINS MAY BREAK OUT IN THE EVENING HOURS IN A FEW AREAS
TO THE WEST OF I-95 BUT MUCH HIGHER CONFIDENCE RAINS EXPAND AFTER
06Z WITH CATEGORICAL POPS LATE AS SUNRISE ARRIVES SATURDAY. OVERNIGHT
QPF SHOULD MAINLY BE LIGHT WITH VERTICAL PROFILES ONLY MOISTENING
UP SIGNIFICANTLY LATER IN THE NIGHT. CLOUDS AND RAIN WILL HELP TO
ANCHOR A WEAK WEDGE PATTERN AT THE SURFACE WITH LOWS 40-45 NORTH
AND MID 40S S OF I-16.

SATURDAY...A WET DAY REMAINS IN THE FORECAST AS ISENTROPIC ASCENT
LIFTS MOISTURE OVER A WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC. ACTIVITY
WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING INTO AT LEAST EARLY AFTERNOON WHILE FORCING
PERSISTS FROM A H5 SHORTWAVE PASSING OVER THE SOUTHEAST AND A STRONG
UPPER LVL JET POSITIONED OVER MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN UNITED STATES.
HOWEVER...THE MID/UPPER PATTERN SUGGESTS A QUICKLY PACED EVENT THAT
OFFERS LESS PRECIP ACCUMULATION...WITH PERHAPS JUST A FEW TENTHS OF
INCH OVER MOST AREAS. PRECIP SHOULD END FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE
EVENING AS THE DEEPEST MOISTURE SHIFTS OFFSHORE. OVERALL TEMPS WILL
BE COOLER WITHIN THE WEDGE AND UNDER CLOUDY SKIES. EXPECT TEMPS TO
PEAK IN THE LOWER 50S IN SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA AND MID/UPPER 50S
IN SOUTHEAST GEORGIA. WE COULD SEE A FEW LOCATIONS REACH 60 IN OUR
MOST SOUTHERN ZONES.

SATURDAY NIGHT...WE SHOULD SEE A PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER...BUT
MOISTURE WILL BEGIN INCREASING FROM THE SOUTH AHEAD OF ANOTHER WAVE
OF LOW PRESSURE SHIFTING/DEVELOPING OVER THE NORTHEAST GULF OF
MEXICO. LOW TEMPS SHOULD RANGE IN THE LOW/MID 40S...COOLEST OVER
INLAND SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA. TEMPS SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY WARMER
ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST.

SUNDAY...THE DAY SHOULD START OFF MOSTLY DRY...BUT MODELS ARE IN
GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT MOISTURE WILL BUILD FROM THE SOUTH AS AN AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO SLOWLY SHIFTS OVER
THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. HAVE
THEREFORE INDICATED 20-30 POPS IN SOUTHEAST GEORGIA SPREADING INTO
SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA SUNDAY EVENING AND THEN INCREASING UPWARDS
TO AROUND 70 POPS SUNDAY NIGHT FOR ALL AREAS AS THE LOW TRACKS OVER
OR IMMEDIATELY ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST. GREATEST CHANCES OF PRECIP
APPEAR TO BE OVER SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND ALONG THE SOUTH CAROLINA
COAST AT THIS TIME...ESPECIALLY AS A SERIES OF H5 SHORTWAVES SHIFT
OVER THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT. OVERALL HIGH TEMPS WILL BE DEPENDENT ON
THE TRACK OF THE SFC LOW...BUT SHOULD REACH THE MID/UPPER 50S OVER
MOST LOCATIONS AWAY FROM THE COAST. TEMPS COULD PEAK IN THE LOWER
60S ALONG COASTAL AREAS IN SOUTHEAST GEORGIA. OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD
RANGE IN THE MID/UPPER 40S AWAY FROM THE COAST...AND IN THE LOW 50S
ALONG THE COAST.

MONDAY...SHOWERS WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING TO START OFF THE DAY AS AN
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MAKE WAY TO THE NORTHEAST. MOST
PRECIP SHOULD SHIFT OFFSHORE BY THE AFTERNOON...BUT CHANCES OF
SHOWERS WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST THROUGH MUCH OF THE EVENING
WHILE ABUNDANT LOW-LVL MOISTURE LAGS BEHIND THE LOW TO THE
NORTHEAST. TEMPS WILL BE DEPENDENT ON WHAT IS LEFT OF THE WEDGE
INLAND...BUT SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY WARMER...IN THE UPPER 50S INLAND TO
LOWER 60S IN SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND ALONG THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...THE PATTERN WILL REMAIN UNSETTLED
AS AHEAD OF COLD FRONT THAT EVENTUALLY PUSHES THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST
EARLY WEDNESDAY. AT THIS TIME...MODELS SUGGEST CHANCES OF PRECIP
INCREASING MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS A WARM FRONT TRIES TO LIFT
NORTH INTO A WEAKENING WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC. A PERIOD
OF WARMING SHOULD ALSO OCCUR WITHIN A SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING COLD FRONT TO THE WEST. HAVE THEREFORE INTRODUCED
SHOWERS FOR ALL AREAS...RATHER THAN RAIN. WE COULD SEE ENOUGH
INSTABILITY TO INCLUDE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST SHOULD
TRENDS PERSIST...MAINLY IN SOUTHEAST GEORGIA TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. OVERALL HIGH TEMPS SHOULD RANGE IN THE LOW/MID 60S FOR MOST
AREAS ON TUESDAY...EVEN WITH CLOUD COVER PRESENT. UPPER 60S ARE
EXPECTED OVER SOUTHEAST GEORGIA. CHANCES OF PRECIP SHOULD QUICKLY
DIMINISH AS THE COLD FRONT BEGINS TO SHIFT THROUGH THE AREA LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT. TUESDAY NIGHT LOWS SHOULD RANGE IN THE UPPER 40S TO
AROUND 50 OVER MOST AREAS.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...A MUCH QUIETER/DRY PERIOD OF WEATHER IS
ANTICIPATED AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION BEHIND A COLD
FRONT SHIFTING OFFSHORE EARLY WEDNESDAY. TEMPS WILL BE SLOW TO WARM
THROUGH THURSDAY...UNTIL HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES MORE CENTERED OVER
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. OVERALL HIGH TEMPS SHOULD RANGE IN THE
MID/UPPER 50S WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...BEFORE SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNS
TO THE AREA ALONG THE WESTERN EDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ON FRIDAY. TEMPS
SHOULD PEAK INTO THE LOW/MID 60S BY LATE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR THROUGH 12Z. AS RAIN OVERSPREADS THE AREA...THE POTENTIAL FOR
AT LEAST MVFR CEILINGS WILL INCREASE AFTER 06Z-09Z...BUT GIVEN
LOW-LEVEL DRY AIR IN PLACE OPTED TO DELAY FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS
UNTIL AFTER 12Z. ONCE CEILINGS LOWER SATURDAY MORNING...MVFR CEILINGS
SHOULD PREVAIL FOR THE BALANCE OF THE 18Z TAF PERIOD...AND AT
LEAST OCCASIONAL IFR CEILINGS/MVFR VISIBILITIES CANNOT BE RULED
OUT.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...PERIODS OF MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS
APPEAR LIKELY WITH RAIN/SHOWERS SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY WHILE A
WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE PERSISTS INLAND AND SEVERAL AREAS OF LOW
PRESSURE SHIFT ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST.

&&

.MARINE...
A WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN WILL MAINTAIN N/NE WINDS AND SEAS AROUND 1
FOOT THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING. THEN...A TIGHTENING
PRESSURE GRADIENT SHOULD TRANSLATE TO NE WINDS INCREASING TO 10-15
KT OVERNIGHT...ACCOMPANIED BY SEAS BUILDING TO 2-3 FT.

SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS THIS WEEKEND AS A WEDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE STRENGTHENS INLAND AND A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SHIFTS FROM THE
NORTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST. PERIODS OF
RAIN/SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE WATERS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
UNTIL A COLD FRONT SHIFTS OFFSHORE WEDNESDAY. STRONG WINDS WILL
ACCOMPANY THE FRONT AS IT SHIFTS OFFSHORE EARLY WEDNESDAY...WITH AT
LEAST SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR ALL WATERS. A
GALE WATCH COULD BE EVENTUALLY NEEDED FOR A PORTION OF THE WATERS ON
WEDNESDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON AS WINDS GUST TO 30-35 KT. SEAS WILL
ALSO BUILD UPWARDS TO 6-8 FT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE SLOWLY
IMPROVING WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...SPR
SHORT TERM...DPB
LONG TERM...DPB
AVIATION...SPR
MARINE...DPB/SPR






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