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Area Forecast Discussion

440
FXUS62 KCHS 080307
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
1007 PM EST SUN FEB 7 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH AT LEAST MID WEEK. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA
LATE MONDAY....THEN A REINFORCING COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION
WEDNESDAY. WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OVER THE AREA
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. YET ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE
REGION LATE WEEK OR EARLY NEXT WEEKEND...FOLLOWED BY COLD HIGH
PRESSURE THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 10 PM THIS EVENING...MSAS SURFACE ANALYSIS DEPICTS A POTENT
987 MB SURFACE LOW WELL EAST OF THE OUTER BANKS OF NORTH CAROLINA.
THIS LOW WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT OFF TO THE NORTHEAST TONIGHT WHILE
INTENSIFYING. THE LAST OF THE CLOUD COVER ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW
IS PULLING OUT TO THE NORTHEAST...WITH CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. TEMPERATURES SHOULD FALL TO
LOWS IN THE MID 30S MOST AREAS...WITH A FEW WELL SHELTERED
LOCATIONS APPROACHING FREEZING. IF WINDS FULLY DECOUPLE AND
TEMPERATURES FALL MORE THAN EXPECTED...THEN ISOLATED PATCHES OF
BLACK ICE COULD BECOME A CONCERN BUT NOT EXPECTING THAT TO OCCUR
AT THIS TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AN AMPLIFYING LONGWAVE UPPER TROUGH WILL DRIVE A STRONG COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT...SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL HELP PUSH TEMPERATURES INTO THE UPPER
50S/LOWER 60S...CLOSE TO NORMAL FOR FEBRUARY 8 AND THE WARMEST
TEMPERATURES WE CAN EXPECT THROUGH AT LEAST NEXT WEEKEND. AS THE
COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING...ISOLATED/
SCATTERED SHOWERS COULD DEVELOP AND ONGOING SLIGHT CHANCE/CHANCE
POPS ARE REASONABLE.

COLDER AIR WILL SPREAD INTO THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT. THERE IS A
SMALL CHANCE THAT SUFFICIENT MOISTURE COULD REMAIN UNDER THE UPPER
TROUGH TO SUPPORT A FEW FLURRIES LATE MONDAY EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT...BUT THIS SCENARIO IS UNLIKELY AND IS NOT REFLECTED
WITHIN THE LATEST PUBLIC FORECASTS.

TUESDAY WILL FEATURE WINDY AND COLD CONDITIONS WITH TEMPERATURES NOT
REACHING 50F AT MOST/ALL LOCATIONS. TO VARYING DEGREES...GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS THAT SHOWERS OVER COASTAL WATERS COULD PUSH ONSHORE INTO
COASTAL SC COUNTIES...BUT STRONG/DRY OFFSHORE FLOW AT THE SURFACE
AND ALOFT SHOULD HOLD ANY SHOWERS OVER THE ATLANTIC.

TUESDAY NIGHT...PERSISTENT WIND AND TEMPERATURES BOTTOMING OUT IN
THE MID 20S INLAND TO LOWER 30S AT THE COAST COULD SUPPORT MINIMUM
WIND CHILLS 15-20F.

WEDNESDAY...DEEP LAYERED TROUGHING WILL PREVAIL. WINDY CONDITIONS
WILL ACCOMPANY TEMPERATURES 10-15F BELOW NORMAL...WITH HIGH TEMPS
ONLY RANGING FROM THE MID/UPPER 40S NORTH TO LOWER 50S SOUTH. A
DRY...REINFORCING COLD FRONT WILL ADVANCE THROUGH THE SETTING THE
STAGE FOR LOWS IN THE LOWER/MIDDLE 20S AND WIND CHILLS IN THE TEENS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

LAKE WINDS...COLDER AIR WILL SUPPORT A PERIOD STRONG WINDS
ACROSS LAKE MOULTRIE MONDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE LONGWAVE TROUGH ALOFT WILL DEAMPLIFY THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY...THOUGH THE REGION WILL SOLIDLY REMAIN WITHIN THE CYCLONIC
FLOW AROUND THE DEEP UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER EASTERN CANADA. MOST
OF THE PERIOD LOOKS RATHER UNEVENTFUL AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN COULD
COME TO START THE WEEKEND AS A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK
LOW DRAGS ACROSS THE REGION. OTHERWISE THE PERIOD LOOKS DRY WITH
TEMPERATURES MODERATING INTO THE MID/UPPER 50S...WHICH IS STILL
SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR MID FEBRUARY.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT KCHS AND KSAV THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY.
BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL REDEVELOP MONDAY AFTERNOON...WITH GUSTS
UPWARDS OF AROUND 25 KT EXPECTED.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT...STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST
WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE TOWARD THE NORTHEAST TONIGHT. AS THE LOW
MOVES AWAY THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL DECREASE...ALLOWING
WINDS AND SEAS TO CONTINUE TRENDING DOWNWARD. THE ONLY HEADLINES
REMAINING ARE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR THE CHARLESTON COUNTY
COASTAL WATERS AND FOR THE OUTER GEORGIA WATERS.

MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...ELEVATED WINDS/SEAS WILL PREVAIL UNTIL
LATE WEEK. COLD FRONTS WILL CROSS THE WATERS MONDAY NIGHT AND
AGAIN WEDNESDAY PM...AND A DEEP LAYERED TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
WILL MAINTAIN A STRONG FLOW OF COLD AIR THROUGH MID WEEK. ACROSS
GA WATERS BEYOND 20 NM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL
LIKELY GIVE WAY TO AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF GALES BEGINNING MONDAY
NIGHT OR TUESDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY. WITHIN
NEAR SHORE WATERS...A BRIEF RESPITE FROM SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS MONDAY MORNING WILL GIVE WAY TO ANOTHER ROUND OF SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES MONDAY AFTERNOON AND MONDAY NIGHT...THEN GALES
COULD DEVELOP TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. ACROSS ALL
AREAS...CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AS WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE WATERS.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
ASTRONOMICAL INFLUENCES MIGHT AGAIN LEAD TO SHALLOW COASTAL
FLOODING WITH THE EARLY MORNING HIGH TIDE MONDAY.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THURSDAY FOR AMZ374.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST MONDAY FOR AMZ350.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...JAQ
SHORT TERM...SPR
LONG TERM...BSH
AVIATION...JAQ
MARINE...JAQ/SPR



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