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Area Forecast Discussion

FXUS62 KCAE 251311

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
911 AM EDT SUN SEP 25 2016

An upper-level ridge will continue to build east into the area
through today. A cold front will approach from the north today and
stall across the area Monday providing a focus for scattered
showers and thunderstorms. Another cold front will approach from
the west Tuesday and move east of the area midweek. The air mass
behind this system will be drier and more seasonable.


A high amplitude upper-level ridge over the Mississippi Valley
will move slowly east today. Upper level cut-off low over the Gulf
coast area. At the surface, weak high pressure remains. Upper
level trough over New England with surface ridge building south
along the Atlantic Seaboard will drive the cold front slowly
southwest during the day into the evening. The air mass across the
region will become marginally to possibly moderately unstable by
this afternoon. Forecast soundings suggest limited
moisture...especially across the south Midlands and CSRA and a
possible low level cap. Convergence along the front and upper
level dynamics appear weak. High resolution models suggest most
of the thunderstorm development will be across the North Midlands
and Pee Dee late in the afternoon and early evening...so chance
pops there and isolated elsewhere. Strong insolation again at
least through mid afternoon/boundary layer temps slightly cooler
than yesterday...so expect temperatures should be a couple degrees
cooler than yesterday.


Scattered convection in the evening mainly north...should decrease
during the overnight hours as instability weakens. East low-
level flow Monday...possibly resulting in deeper moisture.
Frontal boundary stalled across the area should support mainly
diurnal scattered showers and thunderstorms in a weakly to
moderately unstable air mass. Convection may focus near a sea
breeze front in the east. Temperatures a little cooler Monday.
MOS overnight minimum temperatures remain consistent.


Deep upper-level trough over the Great Lakes/ohio valley early in
the period. GFS more progressive moving low toward New England
than ECMWF. Cold front moving through the region Tuesday night
into early Wednesday. Scattered showers and thunderstorms ahead of
the front. Drier and cooler air advecting into the region by
Wednesday afternoon. Air mass appears to be trending cooler behind
the front. Dry into the weekend. Overnight minimum temperatures
forecast in the 50s...maximum temperatures near 80...or upper
70s...seasonable for a change.


VFR expected today. Back door front, currently pushing south
through NC, and associated low cloudiness, is expected to remain
north of the terminals through this evening. Slight chance of
showers/thunderstorms near the front late today/this evening, also
expected to remain well N/NE of the terminals. Front will slip a
little farther south tonight. Chance of stratus/fog late tonight.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Late night/early morning stratus/fog,
along with a chance of showers and thunderstorms Monday/Tuesday.
No impacts to aviation expected Wednesday/Thursday.





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