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Area Forecast Discussion

277
FXUS62 KCAE 010247
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1047 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A PERSISTENT UPPER RIDGE WILL KEEP VERY WARM TEMPERATURES IN THE
FORECAST THIS WEEK. INCREASED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN
CHANCES OF AFTERNOON STORMS AND HUMID CONDITIONS WITH HEAT INDICES
AT OR ABOVE 100 DEGREES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATED THE UPPER RIDGE CENTERED JUST OFF
THE SC/GA COAST WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE AREA. LOW
LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG A SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE MIDLANDS
WITH WEAK TO MODERATE INSTABILITY. LINGERING SHOWERS ACROSS THE
CENTRAL AND EASTERN MIDLANDS WAS DIMINISHING. IR SATELLITE SHOWED
CLOUD TOP TEMPS WARMING. PWAT STILL AT OR ABOVE 2.00 INCHES OVER
THE FORECAST AREA.

EXPECT PRECIPITATION TO END BY 06Z OR SO WITH SOME CONVECTIVE
DEBRIS CLOUD OVER THE AREA TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARM
AGAIN TONIGHT IN THE LOW TO MID 70S AFTER SUCH A WARM DAY WITH
CLOUD COVER AND ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LIMITING RADIATIONAL
COOLING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
STRONG MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES TO HOLD ALONG THE
SOUTHEAST COAST INTO MONDAY NIGHT. S/W ENERGY ACROSS THE CNTRL/NRN
PLAINS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND
FLATTEN OUT THE AMPLITUDE OF THE RIDGE...BUT THE SOUTHEAST REMAINS
UNDER HIGHER HEIGHTS AND SEPARATE FROM THE MAIN W TO E FLOW. LOW
LEVEL FLOW REMAINS FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTH-SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE
PERIOD. THIS WILL HELP TO KEEP LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACES WITH
DEWPOINTS RANGING FROM THE MIDDLE 60S TO LOWER 70S.
HOWEVER...CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS LOOK LOW THROUGH THE
PERIOD. GUIDANCE POPS ALONG WITH LACK OF UPPER TRIGGERS
INDICATING ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS THROUGH THE PERIOD. CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY WILL BE MAINLY DIURNAL IN NATURE WITH ONLY SOME WEAK
SURFACE CONVERGENCE/SEA BREEZE ACTION EACH DAY. AS FOR
TEMPERATURES...EXPECT AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES TO CONTINUE THE RUN
OF 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. AS HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON HAVE
CLIMBED INTO THE UPPER 90S IN SOME AREAS...DECIDED TO RAISE
AFTERNOON HIGHS FOR MONDAY BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS AND BOUNDARY
LAYER/H8 TEMPS. EXPECT MIDDLE TO UPPER 90S ACROSS MOST LOCATIONS.
LIKE THIS AFTERNOON A LOCATION OR TWO MAY REACH THE CENTURY MARK.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE LOWER 70S. AFTERNOON HEAT INDEX
VALUES TOMORROW WILL CLIMB TO AROUND 105 DEGREES.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NO REAL CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST. UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES
OVER THE AREA FROM TUESDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. IN FACT THE RIDGE
BEGINS TO AMPLIFY ONCE AGAIN BEGINNING WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
THE THE MAIN FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE U.S....EXPECT
S/W ACTIVITY TO REMAIN NORTH OF THE AREA FROM THE NRN PLAINS AND
GREAT LAKES INTO NEW ENGLAND/MID ATLANTIC REGION AND REMAINING
NORTH OF THE CWA. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO SLOWLY INCREASE
DURING THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD AND REMAIN BETWEEN 1.5 AND 2.0
INCHES THROUGH THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. A WEAK BOUNDARY
TRIES TO MOVE SOUTHWARD INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY...BUT MODELS
CONTINUE TO SHOW IT HANGING UP JUST NORTH AND WEST OF THE CWA.
REMNANTS OF BOUNDARY LINGER JUST NORTH OF THE CWA THROUGH MUCH OF
THE WEEK. OTHERWISE...JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE/LOW CHANCE POPS THROUGH
THE PERIOD. STILL LOOKS TO BE DIURNAL IN NATURE WITH AFTERNOON
HEATING WITH WEAK SURFACE CONVERGENCE AND LITTLE/NO UPPER SUPPORT.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD. EXPECT AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE
LOW/MID 90S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOW/MID 70S. NORMALS HIGHS
ARE IN THE UPPER 80S AND LOWS NEAR 70.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS WITH MVFR/IFR
AROUND SUNRISE.

FEW SHOWERS REMAIN JUST EAST OF OGB WITH THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA
COVERED IN CONVECTIVE DEBRIS. REMAINING SHOWERS WILL REMAIN EAST
OF THE TAF SITES AND DISSIPATE BY 05Z. POTENTIAL FOR FOG AND
STRATUS REMAINS HIGH AS MOISTURE FROM SHOWERS BECOMES TRAPPED
UNDER THE INVERSION. FOG THREAT WILL BE SOMEWHAT MINIMIZED BY
CONVECTIVE DEBRIS PERSISTING OVER THE AREA FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF
HOURS. ALL PARAMETERS CONSIDERED HAVE REMAINED WITH MVFR
CONDITIONS FOR CAE/CUB/DNL WITH IFR AT AGS/OGB BETWEEN 08Z AND
13Z. FOG AND STRATUS WHICH DEVELOP WILL MIX OUT BY 13Z WITH
DIURNAL CUMULUS FROM MIDDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.
POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION AT THE TAF SITES FROM 16Z ONWARD REMAINS
TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN TAFS ATTM.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN LATE NIGHT
AND EARLY MORNING STRATUS AND FOG. SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$









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