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Area Forecast Discussion

003
FXUS62 KCAE 101131
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
631 AM EST WED FEB 10 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
IT WILL BE COLD WITH BRISK WINDS TODAY BECAUSE OF THE FLOW
BETWEEN STRONG LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE NORTHEAST COAST AND THE
PRESSURE RIDGE IN THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. THE RIDGE WILL
BE NEAR THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. IT WILL REMAIN
COLD BUT WITH LESS WIND. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP
ALONG A WEAK FRONT JUST SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA LATE THURSDAY
NIGHT. THE LOW WILL BE NEAR THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST EARLY FRIDAY
AND FARTHER OFF THE COAST FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN STRONG LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE
NORTHEAST COAST AND THE PRESSURE RIDGE IN THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY WILL RESULT IN COLD AND BREEZY CONDITIONS TODAY. THE GFS
LAMP AND NAM BUFKIT MOMENTUM TRANSFER TOOL SUPPORTS GUSTS OF 23
TO 29 KNOTS. WE HAVE POSTED A LAKE WIND ADVISORY. AN H7 SHORTWAVE
TROUGH WAS HELPING SUPPORT CLOUDINESS IN THE CSRA EARLY THIS
MORNING. FLURRIES OCCURRED WITH THIS SYSTEM IN NORTH GEORGIA BUT
THE CHANCE OF THIS OCCURRING IN THE FORECAST AREA APPEARS LESS
BASED ON SATELLITE TRENDS WITH DIMINISHING CLOUDINESS AND THE
HRRR. USED THE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS FOR THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST.
WIND CHILL VALUES WILL BE GENERALLY IN THE TEENS THIS MORNING AND
MIDDLE 20S TO MIDDLE 30S THIS AFTERNOON...ABOVE THE WIND CHILL
ADVISORY CRITERIA OF 5. LESS WIND WILL OCCUR TONIGHT AS THE
PRESSURE RIDGE GETS CLOSER TO THE FORECAST AREA AND THE GRADIENT
RELAXES. EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. IT WILL BE COLD. THE GUIDANCE
CONSENSUS SUPPORTS LOWS IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 20S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL EXTEND THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY.
IT WILL REMAIN DRY. THE NAM...GFS...AND ECMWF INDICATE LOW
PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE WEAK FRONT JUST SOUTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA LATE THURSDAY NIGHT. THE MODELS DISPLAY THE LOW NEAR
THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST EARLY FRIDAY WITH THE SYSTEM SHIFTING
FARTHER OFFSHORE FRIDAY AFTERNOON. MOISTURE SHOULD BE LIMITED IN
THE FORECAST AREA. THE MODELS INDICATE H85 WESTERLY FLOW AND THE
GREATER LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND MOISTURE SHOULD OCCUR AS THE
LOW DEEPENS FARTHER EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. GUIDANCE POPS
RANGED FROM 10 TO 60 PERCENT WITH THE ECMWF MOS LOWEST AND NAM
HIGHEST. WE LEANED TOWARD THE LOWER POPS BASED ON THE PATTERN.
LEANED TOWARD THE SREF FOR THE TIMING AND HELD OFF INCLUDING POPS
IN THE FORECAST UNTIL LATER FRIDAY MORNING. IF THE GFS AND
ESPECIALLY NAM ARE CORRECT WITH A FASTER TIMING SLEET AND SNOW
COULD OCCUR ESPECIALLY IN THE CENTRAL AND NORTH SECTIONS. IF THIS
WERE TO OCCUR WOULD EXPECT LIGHT AMOUNTS BECAUSE OF WEAK FORCING
IN THE FORECAST AREA. THE ECMWF AND GFS INDICATED QPF 0.01 OF AN
INCH OR LESS. THE NAM DEPICTED .01 TO .1 OF AN INCH. WE USED THE
GUIDANCE CONSENSUS FOR THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE GFS AND ECMWF INDICATE A COLD AND DRY PRESSURE RIDGE MOVING
INTO THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY WITH THE RIDGE
NEAR THE AREA SUNDAY. THE MODELS SHOW THE RIDGE SHIFTING OFF THE
COAST FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH A FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE
FORECAST AREA. COLD AIR MAY LINGER WITH A WEDGE PATTERN MONDAY
INTO MONDAY NIGHT. THE GFS PARTIAL THICKNESSES INDICATE POSSIBLE
FREEZING RAIN IN THE NORTHWEST SECTION. THE GFS...ECMWF...AND EKD
MOS HAVE BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE MEDIUM-RANGE
PERIOD. THE MOS HAS POPS LESS THAN 10 PERCENT SATURDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY...AND 20 TO 50 PERCENT MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD. GUSTY WINDS
ARE THE MAIN CONCERN.

TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION WITH LOW PRESSURE OVER THE
NORTHEASTERN STATES AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS THE CENTRAL
CONUS. A FEW MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO CROSS THE TAF SITES
EARLY THIS MORNING. WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS INCREASING 15 TO 20
KNOTS WITH GUSTS AROUND 30 KNOTS AFTER 14Z...SUBSIDING BY SUNSET.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AFFECTS THE REGION.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL BE AROUND 25 PERCENT THIS
AFTERNOON. IT WILL BE BREEZY AS INDICATED BY THE GFS LAMP AND NAM
BUFKIT WITH GUSTS 23 TO 29 KNOTS. BASED ON COORDINATION WITH THE
SOUTH CAROLINA FORESTRY COMMISSION AND CONSIDERING FUEL MOISTURE
AND COLD AIR WE HAVE NOT ISSUED A RED FLAG WARNING DESPITE THE
WIND AND RELATIVE HUMIDITY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR GAZ040-
     063>065-077.
SC...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR SCZ015-016-
     018-020>022-025>031-035>038-041.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...99
NEAR TERM...99
SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM...99
AVIATION...99
FIRE WEATHER...99



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