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Area Forecast Discussion

800
FXUS62 KCAE 261751
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1243 PM EST MON JAN 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
FAST MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CROSS THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON WITH ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS AND BREEZY CONDITIONS.
DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA WEDNESDAY WITH A
REINFORCING COLD FRONT CROSSING THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LARGE AMPLIFIED UPPER TROUGH SWINGING ACROSS THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON. WATER VAPOR INDICATES SEVERAL SHORT WAVES UPSTREAM
ACROSS THE UPPER AND MID MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY TO CROSS
OUR AREA THROUGH THE EVENING.

AT THE SURFACE A STRENTHENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE
MID-ATLANTIC COAST WILL CONTINUE MOVING NORTH AND WAY FROM
THE AREA. KEPT POPS IN THE SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THE NORTHERN
MIDLANDS AND PEE DEE REGION AND DRY FARTHER SOUTH.
CONSIDERABLE CLOUDS AREA-WIDE.

TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 50S NORTH TO NEAR
60 SOUTHEAST. GUSTY WINDS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON...WITH
STRONGEST WINDS IN THE CSRA ASSOCIATED WITH 850MB JETMAX.
LAKE WATERS RELATIVELY COOL...SO STRONGEST WINDS NEAR-SHORE...
GUSTS TO 25 KTS TO 30 KTS POSSIBLE. HIGHEST CONFIDENCE FOR
STRONGEST WINDS IN THE CSRA...CLARKS HILL/THURMOND
LAKE. LAKE WIND ADVISORY CONTINUES UNTIL 10 PM.

CLEARING SKIES AND COLD ADVECTION TONIGHT AS UPPER NEGATIVELY
TILTED UPPER TROUGH WILL BE OFF THE COAST. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL
BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S WITH DIMINISHING WINDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
THE LARGE UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES OVER THE EASTERN CONUS TUESDAY
WITH ITS DEEP SURFACE AND UPPER LOW CENTER MOVING NORTHWARD FROM
THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION TO COASTAL SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. PERIODS
OF CLOUDS EXPECTED TUESDAY AS SHORT WAVES ROTATE AROUND BASE OF
UPPER TROUGH. MOISTURE OVERALL APPEARS QUITE LIMITED...SO DRY
FORECAST. TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL TUESDAY DUE TO COLD ADVECTION.

THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES OFF THE COAST TUESDAY NIGHT WITH HEIGHTS
RISING FOR WEDNESDAY. COOL HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. VERY DRY AIR MASS OVERSPREADING THE
REGION WITH DEW POINTS IN THE TEENS. WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY
WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S AND LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT
FROM THE MID 20S TO AROUND 30.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MODELS CONTINUE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THURSDAY THEN WITH INCREASING
DIFFERENCES BY FRIDAY.

MODEL DIFFERENCES BEGIN THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE GFS TRACKS LOW
PRESSURE THROUGH THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES AND THROUGH THE OHIO
VALLEY THURSDAY NIGHT WHILE THE ECMWF KEEPS THE LOW IN THE
NORTHERN GREAT LAKES. BOTH MODELS BRING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA THURSDAY NIGHT WITH THE GFS BEING STRONGER AND
FASTER WITH THE FRONT DUE TO THE LOW CENTER MUCH FURTHER SOUTH
THAN THE ECMWF.

COLD HIGH PRESSURE EXPECTED TO BUILD IN FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THE
ECMWF BRINGS ANOTHER COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT
WHILE THE GFS GENERATES LOW PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST.
TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL THURSDAY...THEN BELOW NORMAL FOR NEXT
WEEKEND. GFS ENSEMBLE POPS THROUGH PERIOD LOW. NOT CONFIDENT
ENOUGH TO INDICATE PRECIP WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

VFR CIGS AROUND 4 KFT THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING AS A STRONG
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CROSSES THE REGION. THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS IS TOO
LOW TO INCLUDE IN TAFS. TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WITH NORTHWEST TO
WEST WINDS 15 TO 20 KNOTS AND GUSTS 20 TO 30 KNOTS. CLOUDS EXPECTED
TO CLEAR THIS EVENING AS THE STORM SYSTEM MOVES UP THE COAST. WINDS
GRADUALLY SUBSIDE THIS EVENING...TO AROUND 10 KNOTS AFTER 27/06Z.
AFTER 27/15Z...NORTHWEST WINDS INCREASING 10 KNOTS GUSTING TO
AROUND 15 KNOTS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...CIGS AND VSBY RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE
THURSDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR SCZ015-016-
     018-020>022-025>031-035>038-041.
GA...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR GAZ040-
     063>065-077.
&&

$$





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