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Area Forecast Discussion

946
FXUS62 KCAE 200737
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
337 AM EDT WED AUG 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DRIER AIR AND A BUILDING UPPER RIDGE JUST TO OUR WEST WILL REDUCE
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THROUGH FRIDAY...AND LEAD TO HOTTER HIGH
TEMPERATURES. AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT AND INCREASING MOISTURE
WILL INCREASE THE THUNDERSTORM CHANCE OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UPPER RIDGE BUILDING TO THE WEST OF THE AREA TODAY. WARMING 850MB
TEMPERATURES AND LOW LEVEL DOWNSLOPE FLOW WILL RESULT IN
TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN YESTERDAY. ONLY SLIGHT
CHANCE OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS DUE TO DRIER AIR AND
BUILDING RIDGE ALOFT. MODELS SOUNDINGS SUGGEST MODERATE
INSTABILITY GIVEN WARM SURFACE TEMPERATURES BUT A RELATIVELY HIGH
LFC/POSSIBLE CAP. STRONG LIFTING ALSO NOT EXPECTED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES CENTERED TO THE WEST OF THE AREA. MODELS
SUGGEST LOW LEVEL WARMING THROUGH THE PERIOD. TEMPERATURES LIKELY
NEAR 100 DEGREES. GUIDANCE INDICATES DEW POINTS MIXING DOWN INTO
THE MID TO UPPER 60S ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN COUNTIES TO
NEAR 70 ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST MIDLANDS. THIS SHOULD KEEP HEAT
INDICES JUST BELOW OUR HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA OF 110F. ONLY SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS EXPECTED DUE TO DRIER AIR AND BUILDING
RIDGE ALOFT.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
UPPER RIDGE TO OUR WEST WITH UPPER TROUGH AND CLOSED LOW TO OUR
NE...PROVIDING A NW FLOW ALOFT FOR OUR FA. SOME TIMING
UNCERTAINTIES...BUT MODELS SUGGEST A BACK DOOR FRONT WILL MOVE
DOWN THE EAST COAST...REACHING OUR FA SOME TIME THIS WEEKEND. THIS
WOULD INCREASE POPS ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY...AND LEAD TO
COOLER TEMPS NORTH OF IT. WILL MAINTAIN TREND IN THE ONGOING
FORECAST OF POPS TRENDING HIGHER AND TEMPS TRENDING LOWER DURING
THAT TIME.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS TO DOMINATE THE PERIOD...WITH POSSIBLE MVFR
CONDITIONS FROM 09Z-13Z AT ALL SITES.

MID AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS CONTINUE TO CROSS THE REGION WITH THE
MAIN CONCERN BEING FOG AROUND DAYBREAK. WITH LIGHT WINDS AND
REMAINING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE EXPECT VSBYS TO LOWER TO 4-5SM
BETWEEN 09Z AND 13Z. BEST CHANCE OF FOG WILL BE AT AGS/OGB WITH
LOWER CONFIDENCE AT CAE/CUB/DNL. FOG WHICH DEVELOPS WILL DISSIPATE
BY 13Z WITH ALL SITES VFR THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.
WINDS WILL BE WESTERLY AT 8 KNOTS OR LESS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MVFR OR IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN LATE
NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING FOG THROUGH THE PERIOD. ISOLATED AFTERNOON
AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS MAY ALSO BRING RESTRICTIONS.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$







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