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Area Forecast Discussion

414
FXUS62 KCAE 231459
AFDCAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
1059 AM EDT MON MAY 23 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure near the Delmarva coast today will continue moving
northeastward. High pressure moving into the forecast area from
the west today will be over the area tonight and off the southeast
coast Tuesday. The high will continue to ridge into the forecast
area from the Atlantic through Friday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Today...A closed upper level low positioned along the Mid-
Atlantic coast will gradually shift off to the northeast today.
Meanwhile at the surface, high pressure will build into the region
from the west as low pressure lingers off the Delmarva coast.

Weak short wave energy rotating along the southwest periphery of
the upper low will brush northeast portions of the Midlands today.
The short wave, combined with some mid-level wrap-around moisture
and cooler temperatures aloft could support isolated convection
this afternoon, with most of the high-resolution models putting
the focus on the far northeast Midlands. As a result, will
maintain the 20 percent chance of showers/thunderstorms in that
area, and leave rain-free conditions in place for the rest of the
forecast area. Expect a rather extensive cumulus field to develop
once again this afternoon with diurnal heating, although there
should be more breaks of sunshine across the CSRA where moisture
is not as plentiful. High temperatures this afternoon should
range from the upper 70s across the northern Midlands to around 80
in the central Midlands to the lower 80s in parts of the CSRA.

Tonight...Further drying will occur tonight as both the upper and
surface low lifts farther northeastward. The temperature guidance
was consistent with lows in the mid to upper 50s for most areas.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
The models showed surface ridging extending into the forecast
area from the Atlantic with flat upper ridging moving into the
area Tuesday through Wednesday. Time-height displays indicated
little moisture. The NAM and GFS MOS had pops less than 20 percent.
We kept the dry forecast. Followed the guidance consensus for the
temperature forecast.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
The medium-range models displayed ridging from the Atlantic
dominating during much of the medium-range period. Compared to the
ECMWF, the GFS was more pronounced showing low pressure off the
southeast coast toward the end of the period. Both models
indicated some increase in moisture circulating into the area,
but the moisture appeared to generally remain shallow. The GFS
and ECMWF MOS supported pops increasing to 20 to 30 percent over
the weekend. The MOS had temperatures near normal.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
vfr conditions expected through the taf period.

Expect scattered to broken diurnal cumulus around 5 kft through
the afternoon, then clearing this evening and overnight. Winds
will generally be northerly at 8 knots or less through the period.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...No significant impacts to aviation
expected through Friday.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
SC...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...JAQ
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...JAQ



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