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Area Forecast Discussion

723
FXUS62 KCAE 021943
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
343 PM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK PRESSURE TROUGH WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH
TUESDAY. DEEPER MOISTURE WILL REMAIN SUPPRESSED EAST AND SOUTH OF
THE AREA. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THROUGH MID WEEK.
EXPECT AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
CONVECTION WAS DEVELOPING ALONG A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED
ACROSS THE CENTRAL MIDLANDS THIS AFTERNOON. NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY
DEWPOINTS WERE IN THE 50S WITH PWAT LESS THAN 1.50 INCHES. THE AIR
MASS WAS MORE MOIST AND UNSTABLE SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY WITH
DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S...PWAT 1.50 TO 2.00 INCHES AND
MODERATE INSTABILITY. CONVECTION WAS ALSO FIRING ALONG A SEA
BREEZE ACROSS THE LOWCOUNTRY. THERE HAS BEEN A WEAKENING TREND TO
THE SEA BREEZE CONVECTION AS IT APPROACHES THE EASTERN MIDLANDS.
STILL EXPECT DRY WEATHER ACROSS THE NORTH MIDLANDS...AND SCATTERED
CONVECTION FARTHER SOUTH. TEMPERATURES STILL ON TRACK FOR HIGHS
MOSTLY IN THE LOW TO MID 90S.

SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OVER THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE IS FORECAST TO
LIFT NORTHEAST INTO SOUTHERN GA OVERNIGHT. MOISTURE TRANSPORT
AHEAD OF THE LOW COULD BRING MORE SHOWERS/TSTMS TO THE EASTERN
MIDLANDS LATE TONIGHT. MODELS ALSO INDICATE FOG/STRATUS
DEVELOPMENT AFTER MIDNIGHT GIVEN DRY AIR ALOFT...NEAR CALM WIND
AND AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. KEPT LOWS IN THE LOW/MID 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MODELS SUGGEST WEAK LOW PRESSURE OVER FLORIDA PANHANDLE AREA WILL
MOVE NORTHEAST ALONG THE SOUTH CAROLINA COASTAL FRONT MONDAY AND
MONDAY NIGHT. MOISTURE FLUX CONFINED TO THE COASTAL SOUTH CAROLINA
AS AIR MASS INLAND REMAINS MAINLY DRY. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY
IN THE ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE...HOWEVER THE BULK OF GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
LOW POPS ACROSS CWA. WILL CONTINUE LOW CHANCE POPS MONDAY FOR
MAINLY THE EASTERN MIDLANDS...MAINLY DIURNAL CONVECTION. DRY AIR
MASS EXPECTED TUESDAY WITH WARMING CONDITIONS...POSSIBLY NEAR 100
DEGREES IN A FEW AREAS AS 850MB WARM ADVECTION/DOWN SLOPE FLOW
DEVELOPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT SHOWING A RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL US
WITH A BROAD TROUGH ALONG THE EAST COAST. ISOLATED AFTERNOON
CONVECTION AT MOST WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. MOISTURE RETURNS TO THE
REGION LATER IN THE WEEK. ADVERTISING POPS IN THE 30-40 PERCENT
RANGE THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 90S
THROUGH MID-WEEK...LOWERING INTO THE LOWER 90S THURSDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY OVERNIGHT LOWS GENERALLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED. OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
INTERACTION WILL HELP MAINTAIN A RISK OF THUNDERSTORMS WELL INTO
THE EVENING. SHALLOW MOISTURE SHOULD CONTINUE TO KEEP COVERAGE
LIMITED. THE THUNDERSTORM CHANCE WAS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE
TERMINAL FORECASTS AT TAF ISSUANCE TIME.

HIGH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND NOCTURNAL COOLING SHOULD RESULT IN A
RETURN OF STRATUS AND FOG LATE TONIGHT. WE HAVE FORECASTED A
PERIOD OF IFR CONDITIONS. HEATING AND MIXING SHOULD DIMINISH THE
STRATUS AND FOG BEGINNING AROUND 14Z.

STRONG HEATING MAY HELP SUPPORT THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY AFTERNOON
BUT WITH CONTINUED SHALLOW MOISTURE EXPECT LIMITED COVERAGE. THE
CHANCE WAS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE TERMINAL FORECASTS AT THIS
TIME.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN LATE NIGHT
AND EARLY MORNING FOG PLUS AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

&&

$$
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