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Area Forecast Discussion

507
FXUS62 KCAE 291757
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
157 PM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
BERMUDA HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO RIDGE INTO THE REGION THROUGH THE
WEEKEND WITH A CHANCE OF DIURNAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY
SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA AROUND THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES ALONG WITH WITH
A SLIGHTLY MORE STABLE AIRMASS AND DRIER AIR WILL KEEP THE THREAT
OF CONVECTION LOW ACROSS THE MIDLANDS AND CSRA THROUGH TONIGHT.

EARLY AFTERNOON RADAR RETURNS SHOW A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS PUSHING
WEST/NORTHWEST ACROSS BERKELY COUNTY SC...IF THIS HOLDS TOGETHER
WE COULD SEE A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS SOUTHERN CLARENDON INTO SOUTHERN
ORANGEBURGE COUNTY BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. CAP A BIT STRONGER
TODAY THAN YESTERDAY SO PRECIP WILL LIKELY BE ISOLATED IF IT HOLDS
TOGETHER AS IT MOVES INTO SOUTHEASTERN FORECAST AREA. WILL ADD
SLIGHT POPS IN THIS AREA UNTIL EARLY EVENING. ANY PRECIP WILL DIE
OFF QUICKLY BY SUNSET.

GOING FORECAST OF LATE AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S
WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S LOOKS GOOD. NAM MOS
GUIDANCE SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN GFS MOS GUIDANCE.


&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES
WITH UPPER TROUGHING OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS. MODELS INDICATE THE
RETURN OF INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE ON SATURDAY...ALONG WITH A
CHANCE FOR MAINLY DIURNAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. IT APPEARS
THE FOCUS WILL BE ALONG THE SEA BREEZE...SO WILL HOLD SLIGHTLY
HIGHER POPS ACROSS THE EASTERN MIDLANDS. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL WARM
INTO THE UPPER 80S AND LOWER 90S WITH LOWS IN THE MID AND UPPER
60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
BOTH THE GFS AND THE ECMWF KEEP THE UPPER RIDGE ALONG THE
SOUTHEAST COAST EARLY NEXT WEEK. AT THE SURFACE...MODELS TRY TO
BRING A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT INTO THE REGION. THE GFS SOLUTION
WOULD BRING A DEEPER SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW...WHICH WOULD
BRING GULF MOISTURE INTO THE AREA AS THE FRONT MOVES IN. WINDS
WITH THE ECMWF WOULD BE MORE WESTERLY AND A LITTLE DRIER. IT STILL
LOOKS LIKE A CHANCE FOR CONVECTION EACH DAY SO WILL CONTINUE TO
CARRY 30-50 PERCENT POPS EACH AFTERNOON.

HIGH TEMPS IN THE UPPER 80S AND LOWER 90S SUNDAY AND MONDAY ARE
EXPECTED TO COOL A FEW DEGREES FOR THE REMAINDER OF NEXT WEEK.
NIGHTTIME LOWS HOLD IN THE 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS GENERALLY EXPECTED THROUGH THE 24 HOUR TAF
FORECAST PERIOD...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF MAINLY MVFR VSBYS POSSIBLE
ESPECIALLTY AT FOG PRONE AGS/OGB EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT WITH SLIGHTLY
DRIER AIR REMAINING IN PLACE. ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA SHOULD BE
CONFINED TO OGB AND POINTS EAST AS SEA BREEZE ENTERS SOUTHEASTERN
AREAS THE AREA LATER IN THE AFTERNOON. ANY CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
WILL QUICKLY DIE OUT BY SUNSET.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...INCREASING CHANCES OF AFTERNOON
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

&&

$$
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