« Back
NWS Peachtree City, Ga » Text Product » CAE Area Forecast Discussion


Printer-friendly Version     Surrounding:  BMX  MRX  FFC  CAE  TAE  
Current Version              Previous Versions:   1  2  3  4  5  6  7  8  9  

Area Forecast Discussion

003
FXUS62 KCAE 270705
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
305 AM EDT THU AUG 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN STALLED JUST TO OUR SOUTH THROUGH
FRIDAY. INCREASING ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE WILL DRIFT NORTH INTO OUR
REGION THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
EARLY THIS MORNING...SURFACE OBS SHOWING DRIER AIR ADVECTING SE
INTO THE FA AND DEW POINTS HAVE FALLEN INTO THE MID 60S. MIN
TEMPS APPEAR ON TRACK IN THE UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70.

TODAY...UPPER TROUGH AXIS OVER THE EASTERN CONUS WILL REMAIN WEST
OF THE FORECAST AREA. A STATIONARY FRONT WILL REMAIN ALONG THE
COAST WHILE THE SURFACE WAVE NEAR THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST SHIFTS
SOUTHWESTWARD TOWARDS NORTHERN FLORIDA. MOISTURE APPEARS A LITTLE
HIGHER THAN YESTERDAY ALTHOUGH STILL A BIT LIMITED...WITH THE BEST
MOISTURE ALONG THE COAST. GFS MODEL PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
RANGE FROM AROUND 1.2 INCHES WEST TO 1.5 INCHES EAST. INSTABILITY
APPEARS WEAK. THE 00Z SPC WRF SHOWS MORE ACTIVITY THAN THE 03Z
HRRR ALTHOUGH NEITHER ARE IMPRESSIVE. HIGH TEMPERATURES THIS
AFTERNOON ARE FORECAST NEAR NORMAL...IN THE UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
MAIN UPPER TROUGH JUST TO OUR WEST WILL BEGIN GRADUALLY WEAKENING
AND LIFTING NORTH...BUT STILL LEAVING BEHIND A WEAK UPPER TROUGH
TO OUR WEST AND CUT OFF LOW IN THE GULF OF MEXICO...WHILE UPPER
RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC BEGINS TO BUILD WESTWARD TOWARDS
THE SE COAST. SURFACE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN NEARLY
STATIONARY NEAR THE COAST...WHILE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS
EAST FROM THE MIDWEST INTO THE MID ATLANTIC....AND SURFACE WAVE
NEAR THE SC COAST SHIFTS SW TOWARDS THE GULF COAST. MODELS PROG
DRY AIR AT MID AND UPPER LEVELS TO REMAIN IN PLACE...WHILE LOW
LEVELS GRADUALLY MOISTEN OVER PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA (FA)
DUE TO AN E TO NE LOW LEVEL FLOW OFF THE ATLANTIC.
HOWEVER...RELATIVELY DRY LOW LEVEL AIR MAY REMAIN ENTRENCHED
ACROSS THE NORTHERN FA AS SURFACE HIGH RIDGES FROM THE MID
ATLANTIC INTO THE WESTERN CAROLINAS. WEAK TO MODERATE MAINLY
DIURNAL INSTABILITY PROGGED. SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW CHANCE POPS
APPEAR IN ORDER FAVORING THE SOUTHERN FA.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SAT/SUN...MODELS INDICATE MAIN BELT OF UPPER WESTERLIES TO REMAIN
WELL TO THE NORTH WITH EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE SHIFTING EAST FROM THE
NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS
ALONG WITH INDICATIONS OF WEAK UPPER TROUGHINESS REMAINING TO OUR
WEST....WITH SUBTROPICAL RIDGE REMAINING OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
AND BUILDING TOWARDS THE SE COAST SOME...APPEARS TO DRAW MOISTURE
FROM THE GULF AND ATLANTIC NORTHWARD INTO OUR REGION. SO...WILL
MAINTAIN TREND TOWARDS INCREASING POPS FOR OUR REGION SAT/SUN.
ACCEPTED HPC GUIDANCE OF CHANCE TO POSSIBLY LOW END LIKELY POPS.

EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK...MODELS GENERALLY MAINTAIN WEAK UPPER TROUGH
TO OUR WEST AND SUBTROPICAL UPPER RIDGE TO OUR SE. MAIN CONCERN FOR
THIS TIME PERIOD WILL BE TROPICAL CYCLONE ERIKA. LATEST OFFICIAL
FORECAST FROM NHC BRINGS IT NW ACROSS THE BAHAMAS AS A TROPICAL
STORM SUN/SUN NT THEN STRENGTHEN IT TO A LOW END HURRICANE AND
MOVING IT INTO S FL BY EARLY MONDAY. GENERAL MODEL CONSENSUS HAS IT
DRIFTING TO THE NORTH THEREAFTER. FOR NOW...DUE TO UNCERTAINTIES
REGARDING IMPACT FOR OUR REGION...WILL MAINTAIN CHANCE POPS.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHALLOW LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND NOCTURNAL COOLING SHOULD RESULT IN
STRATUS AND FOG EARLY THIS MORNING. THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS AND
MODELS INDICATE MORE MOISTURE IN THE EAST PART CLOSER TO THE
SURFACE TROUGH AFFECTING THE ORANGEBURG TERMINAL. USED THE
GUIDANCE CONSENSUS AND FORECASTED A PERIOD OF MVFR OR IFR
CONDITIONS DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS WITH THE MORE
PESSIMISTIC CONDITIONS AT ORANGEBURG. HEATING AND MIXING SHOULD
LEAD TO IMPROVING CONDITIONS LATER IN THE MORNING. USED AN AVERAGE
OF THE GUIDANCE FOR THE TIMING. THE NAM MOS WAS THE MOST
PESSIMISTIC KEEPING RESTRICTIONS AT ORANGEBURG THROUGH 18Z. AN
ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT THIS AFTERNOON
OR EVENING ALTHOUGH MOISTURE IS LIMITED AND INSTABILITY APPEARS
WEAK...THUS CONFIDENCE TOO LOW TO INCLUDE. WINDS WILL GENERALLY
REMAIN OUT OF THE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE PERIOD AT 10 KNOTS OR
LESS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN MAINLY EARLY
MORNING FOG AND STRATUS PLUS AFTERNOON AND EVENING SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

&&

$$



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.