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Area Forecast Discussion

733
FXUS62 KCAE 280538
AFDCAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
138 AM EDT SUN AUG 28 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A pressure ridge will remain north and east of the area through
Wednesday. A trough will be off the southeast coast. A cold front
approaching from the northwest will move into the forecast area
Thursday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THIS MORNING/...
Surface high pressure ridging into the area from the north.
Large upper ridge centered over the Mid Atlantic will continue
over the region.

Still some weak instability across the North Midlands. This may
be enough to allow the showers crossing eastern NC to hold
together as they approach the North Midlands. Will hold on to a
slight chance for convection for a couple of hours over the
north...otherwise dry for the rest of the night. Debris clouds
over the north should decrease during the early morning hours
leaving mainly clear skies overnight.

Overnight lows in the low to mid 70s still look reasonable.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
A surface pressure ridge will remain north of the forecast area
with a trough off the southeast coast through Monday. The models
indicate a weakness in the upper ridging over the area, mainly
near the coast. Deep moisture is also displayed staying east of
the forecast area. The pattern supports scattered thunderstorms
mainly associated with diurnal heating. Followed the guidance
consensus for the pop forecast. The models depict skinny CAPE with
the upper ridging limiting instability. The severe thunderstorm
threat should be low. Followed the higher maximum temperature
guidance based on recent verification. Used the consensus for the
minimum temperature.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
The GFS and ECMWF display surface troughing remaining off the
southeast coast and associated moisture staying mainly east of
the area through Wednesday. The models depict a cold front moving
into the area Thursday with the front stalling. Still, much of the
moisture is displayed east of the forecast area. The GFS, ECMWF,
and EKD MOS plus GFS ensemble mean support pops 30 percent or
less. Followed the guidance consensus for the temperatures. Expect
above normal temperatures ahead of the front through Wednesday
with near normal readings during the rest of the period.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR conditions are expected to prevail at the terminals through
the 24 hour TAF period. Debris clouds over the region, along with
forecast of vfr broken stratus towards morning and light winds,
should help to limit any widespread fog formation. Models so show
some isolated to scattered showers/storms during the afternoon
hours, but expected coverage remains limited enough to leave
mention out of tafs at this time.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Chance of late night/early morning
stratus/fog, along with a chance of mainly afternoon/evening
showers/thunderstorms, late in the weekend through mid next week.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
SC...None.

&&

$$



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