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Area Forecast Discussion

123
FXUS62 KCAE 190014
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
714 PM EST THU DEC 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
THE PRESSURE RIDGE EXTENDING THROUGH THE MIDWEST WILL DIRECT DRY
AIR INTO THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH FRIDAY. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE
FRIDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKING EASTWARD ALONG THE
GULF COAST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. SATELLITE SHOWING STRATO-CU CLOUDS ADVECTING INTO THE
MIDLANDS FROM THE UPSTATE SC AND NORTH GEORGIA. MODELS SUGGEST
THESE CLOUDS WILL THIN OUT AS THEY MOVE TO THE EAST. OTHERWISE
EXPECT MAINLY HIGH CLOUDS. MOST GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO COME IN
WITH THE MIDDLE 30S FOR MOST AREAS...AND SEE NO REASON WHY THIS
SHOULD NOT BE CLOSE TO WHAT OCCURS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
BASED ON 18Z GUIDANCE...AND GREATER UNCERTAINTY FOR POPS SATURDAY
MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTH MIDLANDS...LOWERED POPS IN THAT REGION
FROM CATEGORICAL TO 60 PERCENT...

THE MODELS MAINTAIN THE DRY AIR MASS FRIDAY BUT SHOW AN INCREASE
IN MOISTURE FRIDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE EXPECTED TO TRACK
ALONG THE GULF COAST. THE NAM...GFS...AND ECMWF MOS HAVE POPS LESS
THAN 10 PERCENT THROUGH FRIDAY WITH THE CHANCE INCREASING FROM
WEST TO EAST FRIDAY NIGHT. THE MODELS HAVE TRENDED SLOWER MOVING
DEEPER MOISTURE INTO THE FORECAST AREA. ISENTROPIC LIFT APPEARS
WEAK AND MODELS HAVE ALSO BACKED OFF ON THE POPS FOR THE AREA ON
SATURDAY. MODEL PRECIPITABLE WATER TRENDING LOWER ACROSS THE NORTH
MIDLANDS AND WITH LARGE STANDARD DEVIATION IN THE POP
GUIDANCE...LOWERED POPS IN THAT REGION. HAVE CONTINUED WITH
INCREASING POPS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY WITH HIGHEST POPS IN
THE CSRA AND SOUTH MIDLANDS. STRONGEST ISENTROPIC LIFT/AND
MOISTURE FLUX IN THOSE REGIONS. WEAKER LIFT AND LOWER PRECIPITABLE
WATER IN THE NORTH MIDLANDS SUGGESTS LOWER POPS. DRIZZLE EXPECTED
AT TIMES ACROSS THE CWA. QPF AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LESS THAN
ONE QUARTER OF AN INCH. WE FORECASTED CHANCE POPS MAINLY LATE AS
SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES OFFSHORE. MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS HAVE BEEN
CONSISTENT INDICATING LIQUID PRECIPITATION. USED THE GUIDANCE
CONSENSUS FOR THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT. EXPECT
LITTLE TEMPERATURE RECOVERY SATURDAY BECAUSE OF CLOUDINESS AND
RAIN. LEANED TOWARD JUST BELOW THE COOLER SIDE OF THE TEMPERATURE
GUIDANCE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE MODELS HAVE TRENDED WITH MORE MOISTURE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY
WITH INCREASING ISENTROPIC LIFT OVER A WEDGE RIDGE. THE GFS AND
ECMWF MOS POPS HAVE INCREASED THROUGH THE PERIOD AND WILL CONTINUE
WITH A LOW CHANCE POPS THROUGH SUNDAY WITH INCREASING POPS FOR
MONDAY. THE TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE MAY BE TOO WARM BECAUSE OF A
WEDGE PATTERN.

HIGH MOISTURE MAY CONTINUE MONDAY AND TUESDAY AHEAD OF A WARM
FRONT WITH A DEEPENING UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IN THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY. THE WARM FRONT MAY LIFT NORTH OF THE AREA AHEAD OF A
STRONG COLD FRONT. THE MODELS HAVE NOT BEEN CONSISTENT WITH THE
TIMING OF THESE FEATURES BUT APPEAR TO BE TRENDING TOWARD COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE TUESDAY NIGHT. WINDY AND DRY CONDITIONS MAY
FOLLOW THE FRONT FOR WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

DRY HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD.
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS CLOUDS AROUND 6KFT INCREASING FROM THE
WEST TONIGHT. EXPECT THIS LOWER DECK TO SCATTER OUT AS IT REACHES
THE TERMINALS WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS AND EVENTUALLY
DISSIPATE. INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS ON FRIDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT
APPROACHING SYSTEM. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL TURN
NORTHEASTERLY FOR FRIDAY. CLOUDS OVERNIGHT AND DRY AIR NEAR THE
SURFACE SHOULD PREVENT FOG. NONE OF THE MODELS ARE INDICATING ANY
FOG OVERNIGHT WHICH INCREASES CONFIDENCE.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS RE-ENTER THE FORECASTS
BEGINNING LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AS A GULF COAST STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES
THE REGION.  ADDITIONAL RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE WITH ANOTHER SYSTEM
THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$








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