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Area Forecast Discussion

FXUS62 KCAE 221032

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
632 AM EDT FRI JUL 22 2016

High pressure will be in control of the region through the
weekend with another weak frontal boundary returning to the area
early next week. With temperatures rising through the weekend
chances of mainly afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms
will continue each day.


Early this morning...Partly cloudy skies have limited radiational
cooling potential across the FA. There may be brief periods of
patchy fog, especially across the eastern Midlands and Pee Dee,
however widespread fog is not expected.

Today...A northerly mid and upper level flow will be over the
region today. Should see some drier air aloft with the area
between an upper trough off the coast and a broad upper ridge
centered over the southern plains. Models indicate weak to moderate
instability today with little in the way of upper level energy
until tonight. A a result...convective activity should be limited.
Will keep a slight chance for thunderstorms over the CSRA where
moisture and instability will be slightly greater. Temperatures
expected to warm into the mid to upper 90s with overnight lows in
the 70s.


On Saturday, the upper ridge builds into the region with
precipitable water values increasing back to near normal values
around 1.8 inches. A surface trough also expected to develop and
provide a possible focus for convection if it can get going
despite rising upper heights associated with the eastward building
upper ridge. Organized convection is not expected, but could see
locally heavy rainfall given weak steering flow. Temperatures will
continue to rise with highs expected to approach or reach triple
digits and heat indices around 105 degrees. Models remain
consistent with overnight lows in the 70s.


The upper ridge axis will persist across the Tennessee Valley into
the Carolinas on Sunday with temperatures remaining hot in the upper
90s and low 100s with heat indices nearing advisory criteria.
Isolated diurnal convection possible with moderate instability on
Sunday although subsidence from the upper ridge may limit convection.

The upper ridge axis will weaken and begin to retrograde westward
back over the central plains as an upper trough moves across the
Great Lakes region into New England early next week.  A surface
front will also approach the region stalling out north of the
forecast area Mon/Tue and then will push a bit further south
possibly into our northern counties by mid week Wed/Thu before
becoming diffuse.

The forecast area will remain in the warm sector during this period
with above normal atmospheric content as precipitable water values
are forecast to be close to 2 inches and even higher closer to the
frontal boundary which should support diurnal convection.  Tuesday
appears to be the day with the highest chances for convection with
some shortwave energy and the frontal boundary near the area with
the northern Midlands most favored.

Temperatures through the period will remain above normal throughout
with the warmest days occurring Sun/Mon.


Patchy fog will be possible early this morning, however scattered
mid and upper level clouds will inhibit any widespread fog. There
may be brief periods of MVFR fog at all taf sites but will be
most likely at fog prone AGS and OGB.

Today, less atmospheric moisture and continued ridging will limit
convective coverage this afternoon. However there will still be a
slight chance of diurnal thunderstorms, possibly focused more in
the CSRA where moisture is deeper. Chance that convection will
influence TAF sites is low.

Tonight, a 25 kt LLJ will help limit fog potential near the end of
the taf period.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Low confidence in restrictions
in afternoon and evening convection each day. Low potential for
early morning fog/stratus each morning...mainly at AGS/OGB.





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