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Area Forecast Discussion

194
FXUS62 KCAE 211821
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
221 PM EDT THU MAY 21 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE NORTHERN COAST OF SOUTH
CAROLINA EARLY THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE ALONG WITH COOLER AND
DRIER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION FOR FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND
WITH CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURNING TO THE
FORECAST EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE MIDLANDS AT 18Z. WEAK LOW PRESSURE
OVER THE PEE DEE REGION WILL MOVE OFF THE CAROLINA COAST EARLY
THIS EVENING. BAND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVING EAST OF THE
PEE DEE INTO EASTERN NORTH CARLOLINA. GUSTY WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES.
DIURNAL CUMULUS SHOULD DISSIPATE AFTER SUNSET...A FEW CLOUDS
OVERNIGHT BUT MOSTLY CLEAR. COLD ADVECTION TONIGHT. GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS WINDS MAY STAY UP OVERNIGHT BUT WITH COLD ADVECTION WILL
STAY NEAR MOS GUIDANCE FOR LOWS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL OF THE REGION FRIDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY WITH THE HIGH CROSSING THE MID MS VALLEY FRIDAY AND
MOVING OFFSHORE OF DELMARVA SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL KEEP THE
REGION UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF COOLER AND DRIER AIR RESULTING IN A
DRY FORECAST. LOOKS TO BE A NICE START TO THE MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND
WITH COOLER AND DRIER AIR IN PLACE TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO BE
SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER THAN NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD. DAYTIME
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE
LOWER TO MIDDLE 50S FRIDAY NIGHT AND THEN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER
60S SATURDAY NIGHT. NORMAL HIGHS ARE IN THE LOWER/MIDDLE 80S/LOWS
IN THE UPPER 50S/LOWER 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD. SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE ALONG/OFF THE COAST OF THE EASTERN SEABOARD
THROUGH THE PERIOD. A LARGE AREA OF MID/UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD OVER THE SOUTHEAST SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY BEFORE
WEAKENING SLIGHTLY AND SLIDING OFFSHORE FOR WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. THIS WILL KEEP DRY CONDITIONS OVER THE AREA THROUGH
MONDAY...WITH CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURNING TO
THE FORECAST TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY AS THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS
PUSHES EAST OF THE REGION. AS THE RIDGE AXIS MOVES OFFSHORE...THIS
WILL ALLOW A SOUTHERLY FLOW ALONG WITH GULF MOISTURE TO BEGIN
RETURNING TO THE AREA. ONLY HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA/TSRA
TUESDAY AND MAINLY ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA...WITH
SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCES OF MAINLY DIURNAL AFTERNOON/EVENING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE LONG TERM WILL BE INCREASING SUNDAY
THROUGH MIDWEEK WITH TEMPERATURES RISING TO ABOVE NORMAL READINGS.
EXPECT HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN
THE MIDDLE 60S TO LOWER 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD...CONFIDENCE HIGH.

SURFACE COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE EASTERN MIDLANDS THIS
AFTERNOON AND LOW PRESSURE MOVING NORTHEAST OF THE AREA. COLD/DRY
ADVECTION DEVELOPING WITH GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 20 KNOTS.
WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO AROUND 10 KTS AFTER 00Z. SCATTERED TO
BROKEN CUMULUS WILL DIMINISH DURING THE EVENING...MAINLY CLEAR BY
06Z.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...NO RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

&&

$$
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