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Area Forecast Discussion

076
FXUS62 KCAE 241403
AFDCAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
1003 AM EDT TUE MAY 24 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Dry high pressure will remain over the forecast area through
Friday. Moisture may increase over the weekend with an increasing
chance of showers and thunderstorms.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Dry high pressure will remain over the forecast area...ensuring fair
weather. Generally used model consensus for most weather elements.
Highs this afternoon in the lower to mid 80s...with lows tonight
around 60.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
The models display surface ridging extending into the forecast
area from the Atlantic. The models depict a weak shortwave trough
moving into the upper ridge Wednesday. A sea breeze front may move
well inland. However, the models maintain just shallow moisture
and suggest continued mid-level capping. The GFS, NAM, and ECMWF
MOS have pops less than 20 percent. The thunderstorm chance
appears too low to include in the forecast. The temperature
guidance was consistent.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
The medium-range models displayed surface ridging from the
Atlantic and upper-level ridging dominating through Friday with
just shallow moisture. The GFS and ECMWF pops were less than 20
percent. The models suggest a low pressure system or sub tropical
low may approach during the later part of the period adding more
than normal uncertainty Saturday through Monday. The GFS, ECMWF,
and EKD MOS support pops around 30 percent.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR conditions expected through the taf period. Dry high pressure
will remain over the forecast area. Limited moisture will preclude
shower or fog concerns.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...No significant impacts to aviation
expected through Thursday. Some fog possible at the fog prone sites
ags and ogb early Friday morning. Moisture return and associated
restrictions possible Saturday/Sunday.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
SC...None.

&&

$$



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