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Area Forecast Discussion

418
FXUS62 KCAE 222051
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
451 PM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA THIS EVENING. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE FRONT. HIGH
PRESSURE BEHIND THE FRONT WILL DOMINATE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY STRETCHED ACROSS EASTERN TENNESSEE THROUGH
EASTERN ALABAMA WILL APPROACH THE AREA THIS EVENING. REGIONAL
RADAR LOOP SHOWS MAINLY SCATTERED SHOWERS AHEAD OF THE FRONT MOVING
EAST ACROSS THE AREA. ONLY A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES INDICATED AT
THIS TIME. HAVE SEEN SOME GUSTY WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH SHOWER
ACTIVITY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. WILL CONTINUE WITH CURRENT CHANCE POPS
FOR EARLY EVENING SHRA/SLGT CHC TSRA. ENSEMBLE TRENDS CONTINUE TO
INDICATE THAT ACTIVITY WILL TEND TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVES EASTWARD
ACROSS THE STATE. SPC HAS AREA OUTLOOKED FOR GENERAL
THUNDERSTORMS. SEVERE THREAT LIMITED...BUT LOW WET BULB ZERO
INDICATES THE POTENTIAL FOR A STRONG STORM TO PRODUCE SOME SMALL
HAIL AND INVERTED V FORECAST SOUNDING POSSIBLE LOCALLY DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS IF ANYTHING SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPS. EXPECT SOME CLEARING
OVERNIGHT WITH EARLY MORNING LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
BEHIND THE FRONT WEAK COLD ADVECTION EXPECT AND PROBABLY OFFSET BY
DOWNSLOPE FLOW IN THE AFTERNOON. COOLER BUT SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S MOST AREAS UNDER FULL SUN AS
RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA. THE RIDGE WILL BE OVER THE AREA
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND GIVEN DRY AIR MASS EXPECT RADIATIONAL COOLING
CONDITIONS THURSDAY MORNING...FORECAST MINIMUM TEMPERATURES ON
COOL SIDE OF MOS CONSENSUS. RIDGE MOVES OFF THE COAST THURSDAY AND
WITH RETURN FLOW EXPECT A MODEST INCREASE IN LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
DURING THE DAY AND NIGHT. TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN
WEDNESDAY WITH AIR MASS MODIFICATION AND SOUTH FLOW DEVELOPING. UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHING THE REGION LATE THURSDAY NIGHT...EXPECT
AN INCREASE IN CLOUDINESS. ISOLATED SHOWERS MAY MOVE INTO THE
WESTERN MIDLANDS AND PIEDMONT TOWARD MORNING ASSOCIATED WITH SHORT
WAVE TROUGH.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE GFS AND ECMWF CONTINUE TO SHOW SOME MOISTURE INCREASE
ASSOCIATED WITH A DIFFUSE FRONT/TROUGH FRIDAY. NAM MODEL SHOWS A MORE
ROBUST SHORT WAVE THAN ECMWF AND GFS. ENSEMBLE POPS REMAIN LOW
FRIDAY. CONTINUE LOW CHANCE POPS ASSOCIATED WITH FAST MOVING SHORT
WAVE TROUGH. FRONT MAY STALL ACROSS THE AREA OVER THE
WEEKEND...BUT MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED. SEASONABLE OR SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES OVER THE WEEKEND. UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVING
INTO THE MIDWEST LATE IN THE PERIOD. DEEP SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING
IN THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. MOISTURE INCREASE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY
AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM WITH INCREASING CHANCE RAIN AND POSSIBLY
COOLER TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CROSSING THE TAF SITES THROUGH
23/01Z AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. CEILINGS REMAIN ABOVE 3000 FT...
THOUGH VSBYS COULD DECREASE TO IFR IN HEAVY SHOWERS AND COULD GET
A WIND GUST TO 30 KTS. KEPT VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL TAF SITES SINCE
THE PROBABILITY OF MVFR OR LOWER IS RELATIVELY LOW. EXPECT
WESTERLY WIND AROUND 10 KTS GUSTING NEAR 20 KTS. EXPECT CLEARING
AFTER 04Z BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WITH WINDS BECOMING LIGHT
NORTHWEST.

.EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION
FRIDAY WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS/TSTMS.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$






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