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Area Forecast Discussion

639
FXUS62 KCAE 292348
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
648 PM EST THU JAN 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING ALONG THE EAST COAST WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
SOUTHEAST AND FARTHER OFFSHORE THIS EVENING. A COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE REGION AFTER MIDNIGHT. A FEW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE
AHEAD OF THE FRONT THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING. EXPECT THE COLD
FRONT TO PUSH THROUGH THE AREA LATER TONIGHT DRY. DRY HIGH
PRESSURE WILL RETURN FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL DEVELOP TO OUR SOUTHWEST AND BRING WIDESPREAD RAIN TO THE
AREA LATE SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST THIS EVENING WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE FARTHER OFFSHORE TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION AFTER MIDNIGHT. SATELLITE/WV IMAGERY INDICATED
ONE SHORT WAVE MOVING NORTH OF AREA EARL THIS EVENING AND A SECOND
SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA EARLY FRIDAY.

ASSOCIATED WITH THE SECOND SHORT WAVE LATER TONIGHT...MODELS HAVE
SOME PRECIP MOVING THROUGH THE MOUNTAINS...THEN DISSIPATING EAST
OF THE MOUNTAINS AS MOISTURE BECOMES LIMITED...BEFORE ONCE AGAIN
REDEVELOPING CLOSER TO THE COAST BY FRIDAY MORNING. HAVE KEPT THE
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL AREAS DRY OVERNIGHT...WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
RAIN ACROSS THE SOUTH AND EAST LATE TONIGHT. QPF AMOUNTS VERY
LIGHT. CLOUDS AND WINDS REMAINING UP AROUND 5 TO 10 MPH WILL KEEP
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S. WINDS WILL BE HIGHER
ON THE AREA LAKES AS A 30 TO 40 KNOT LOW LEVEL JET MOVES ACROSS THE
REGION...BUT EXPECT SPEEDS TO BE BELOW LAKE WIND ADVISORY
CRITERIA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER DISTURBANCE AND SURFACE FRONT WILL BE MOVING OUT OF OUR
FORECAST AREA (FA) BY EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. NW FLOW WILL BRING IN
DRIER AIR. DRY HIGH PRESSURE CENTER TO BUILD IN FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY...WITH WINDS BECOMING LIGHT. FAIR WEATHER WITH TEMPS A
LITTLE BELOW CLIMO. GUIDANCE BLEND GENERALLY ACCEPTED. RADIATIONAL
COOLING FRI NT/EARLY SAT APPEARS WILL PROVIDE COOL MIN TEMPS IN THE
20S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
GFS/ECMWF CONTINUE TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT...AND BOTH CONTINUE TO BE
SLIGHTLY SLOWER WITH THE APPROACH OF THE NEXT SYSTEM SUNDAY. CLOSED
UPPER LOW OVER THE SW CONUS WILL SHIFT SOUTH INTO NW MEX...WHILE
NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH DIGS OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS SUNDAY AND SHIFTS
EAST INTO THE E CONUS MON. THIS WILL LEAD TO A DEVELOPING SURFACE
LOW NEAR THE LOWER MISS VALLEY SUNDAY WHICH SHIFTS ENE INTO THE MID
ATLANTIC MON. LATEST GFS/ECMWF A LITTLE FARTHER SOUTH WITH THE TRACK
OF THE LOW COMPARED TO PREVIOUS RUNS...BUT STILL KEEP THE LOW TRACK
JUST TO OUR NORTH. THIS TRACK WILL INHIBIT FORMATION OF SIGNIFICANT
PERSISTENT WEDGE OVER OUR FA. THAT PLUS LATER TIMING WILL ALLOW
TREND TOWARDS A LITTLE HIGHER TEMPS SUN. INSTABILITIES APPEAR
WEAK...BUT ENOUGH ELEVATED INSTABILITY MAY PROVIDE A RUMBLE OF
THUNDER SUN NT TO ACCOMPANY THE LIKELY POPS. MODELS BRING FRONT
THROUGH EARLY MONDAY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN MON INTO TUE.
BOTH GFS/ECMWF INDICATE A NEW WAVE FORMING IN THE GULF LATE MON INTO
TUE WHICH TRACKS TOWARDS OUR REGION...THOUGH SLIGHT TIMING
DIFFERENCES EXIST. GFS SLIGHTLY SLOWER WITH MOISTURE RETURN
WED...WHILE ECMWF BRINGS MOISTURE BACK IN TUE NT. ACCEPTED HPC
GUIDANCE.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE EVENING WITH LOW
CONFIDENCE IN POSSIBLE MVFR CIGS WITH A FRONTAL PASSAGE DURING THE
PREDAWN HOURS.

A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA EARLY FRIDAY MORNING WITH LITTLE
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH IT. RELATIVELY HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT VSBY
RESTRICTIONS WILL NOT OCCUR DUE TO FOG OR RAINFALL AT THE
TERMINALS WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. MODEL CROSS SECTIONS AND
FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE SOME POSSIBILITY OF LOWERING CIGS INTO
THE MVFR RANGE MAINLY AT AGS/DNL/OGB BUT CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW IN
THIS SCENARIO AND THINK IT WILL BE SHORT LIVED IF IT OCCURS. CIGS
EXPECTED TO LOWER TO LOW VFR 3500-5000 FT ALONG AND BEHIND THE
FRONT FOR A FEW HOURS THEN SKIES SHOULD CLEAR DURING THE MORNING
HOURS.

SOUTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH THIS EVENING WILL VEER TO THE WEST AND
EVENTUALLY NORTHWEST WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AFTER 06Z. MODERATE
WINDS ARE EXPECTED AFTER 14Z FROM THE NORTHWEST AROUND 10 TO 12
MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 22 MPH THROUGH THE DAY.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...CIG/VSBYS RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE SUNDAY
AND MONDAY AS MOISTURE RETURNS AHEAD OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$








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