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Area Forecast Discussion

705
FXUS62 KCAE 171033
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
633 AM EDT THU APR 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE INTO THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE NORTH
TODAY. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY AHEAD OF LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPING IN THE NORTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO. THE LOW WILL
BE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST SATURDAY AND BE A LITTLE FARTHER OUT
TO SEA EASTER SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING INTO THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE NORTH WILL
CONTINUE TO DOMINATE TODAY. WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT MAY RESULT IN
SOME STRATOCUMULUS. EXPECT SOME HIGH CLOUDINESS IN THE SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT. IT SHOULD BE A PARTLY CLOUDY OR MOSTLY SUNNY DAY.
USED THE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS FOR THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
CONFIDENCE IS LOW BECAUSE OF MODEL INCONSISTENCY AND AN EXPECTED
TIGHT MOISTURE GRADIENT. THE NAM...GFS...AND ECMWF AGREE
DEVELOPING A CUT-OFF H5 LOW...BUT THE NAM HAS THE PROCESS
OCCURRING LATER AND FARTHER EAST WITH LESS MOISTURE IN THE
FORECAST AREA. THE GFS AND ECMWF INDICATE THE CUT-OFF LOW
DEVELOPING WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA LATE FRIDAY OR FRIDAY NIGHT.
THE LESS PROGRESSIVE MODELS INDICATE SIGNIFICANT UPPER-LEVEL LIFT
WITH AN H5 DIFLUENT PATTERN NORTHEAST OF THE LOW LATE FRIDAY AND
FRIDAY NIGHT. THE MODELS ARE CONSISTENT KEEPING THE SURFACE LOW
OFFSHORE...BUT THE GFS AND ECMWF INDICATE MUCH DEEPER MOISTURE
FARTHER INLAND. THERE IS A DRASTIC DIFFERENCE BETWEEN MOS POPS AND
TEMPERATURES WITH THE NAM MOS DRIER AND WARMER WITH ITS HIGH
TEMPERATURES. WE HAVE LEANED TOWARD THE GFS AND ECMWF BUT
CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH BECAUSE PREVIOUS RUNS WERE DRIER AND EXPECT
THERE WILL BE A TIGHT MOISTURE GRADIENT WITH THE HIGHEST MOISTURE
IN THE EAST PART.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE GFS AND ECMWF DISPLAY DEEPER MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE
OFFSHORE LOW JUST EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY. WE KEPT THE
DRY FORECAST FOR EASTER BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW BECAUSE THE TIGHT
MOISTURE GRADIENT WILL LIKELY BE JUST EAST OF THE AREA AND THE
MODELS MAY BE TOO FAST SHIFTING THE CUT-OFF LOW EASTWARD. DRY
RIDGING WILL LIKELY DOMINATE MONDAY. THERE HAS BEEN MODEL
CONSISTENCY WITH THIS PATTERN FOR MONDAY. INCREASED MOISTURE ASSOCIATED
WITH A FRONTAL SYSTEM SUPPORTS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS TUESDAY. AN
AVERAGE OF THE GFS...ECMWF...AND EKD MOS SUPPORT POPS AROUND 30
PERCENT. DRYING BEHIND THIS FEATURE MAY DOMINATE WEDNESDAY. THE
AVERAGE GUIDANCE POPS WEDNESDAY WERE 15 TO 20 PERCENT.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ANCHORED OVER THE EASTERN
SEABOARD...WITH A GENERALLY DRY ATMOSPHERE IN PLACE. SCT TO BKN
STRATOCU WITH VFR BASES EXPECTED TODAY. ENHANCED ISENTROPIC LIFT AND
MOISTURE RETURN IN RESPONSE TO APPROACHING UPPER ENERGY IS EXPECTED
TO PROVIDE INCREASING CLOUDINESS WITH LOWER BASES LATE TONIGHT INTO
FRIDAY.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MVFR TO IFR CIGS POSSIBLE...WITH A
CHANCE OF RAIN...FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...POSSIBLY INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR SCZ015-016-020-
     021.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$






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