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Area Forecast Discussion

021
FXUS62 KCAE 180741
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
341 AM EDT SAT APR 18 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
UNSETTLED AND WET WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND INTO MONDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON
MONDAY AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY BRINGING FAIR WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY EARLY THIS MORNING SHOWS SHORTWAVE TROUGH SHIFTING
EAST ACROSS THE REGION. A WEAK UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE
AREA TODAY BEHIND THE DEPARTING SHORTWAVE. AT THE SURFACE...WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST WITH WEAK LOW
PRESSURE OFF THE COAST. MODELS SHOW AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
FORMING OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION AND LIFTING
SLOWLY NORTHEASTWARD. CURRENT REGIONAL RADAR LOOP AS OF 06Z SHOWS
A LARGE AREA OF LIGHT RAIN MAINLY SOUTH AND EAST OF THE I-20
CORRIDOR. EXPECT THE WEAK LOW LEVEL WEDGE TO REMAIN THROUGH
MORNING AIDED BY THE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL. RAIN SHOULD TAPER OFF AS
THE SHORTWAVE DEPARTS THE AREA THIS MORNING. CLOUD COVER SHOULD
REMAIN FOR MOST OF THE DAY. HI RESOLUTION MODELS SUPPORT CHANCE
POPS THIS AFTERNOON. HAVE CONTINUED TO LEAN TOWARD THE COOLER
TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS TODAY DUE TO CLOUD COVER REMAINING
ACROSS THE REGION WITH MAX TEMPS IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
MODELS INDICTING THAT RAIN CHANCES WILL BE ON THE INCREASE LATER
TONIGHT AND THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY. SOUTHERLY SURFACE WINDS
COMBINED WITH SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS ALOFT WILL HELP TO TRANSPORT
PLENTY OF MOISTURE NORTHWARD AND INTO THE REGION BY SUNDAY
MORNING. MODELS ALL SHOWING CATEGORICAL POPS FOR MUCH OF THE DAY
ON SUNDAY...AND AT THIS POINT SEE NO REASON TO DIFFER. EXPECTING
MAINLY SHOWERS WITH THE SYSTEM ON SUNDAY...BUT CAN NOT RULE OUT AN
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM WITH GUSTY WINDS THROUGH THE DAY. DO EXPECT
TO HAVE A BREAK IN THE RAIN...WITH LOWER CHANCES SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY MORNING AS WE GET BETWEEN SYSTEMS. THEN A STRONGER COLD
FRONT WILL BE POISED TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION ON MONDAY. BEST
CHANCE FOR RAINFALL SHOULD BE DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.  WITH
STRONG LOW-LEVEL JET AND SOME TURNING OF THE WINDS ALOFT...THE
CENTRAL AND EASTERN COUNTIES ARE OUTLOOKED FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
STRONGER STORMS LATER IN THE DAY MONDAY. HAVE MAX TEMPS UPPER
60S NORTH TO UPPER 70S SOUTH ON SUNDAY...THEN SLIGHTLY WARMER
READINGS FORECAST DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY JUST AHEAD OF THE
FRONT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
BRINGING A REPRIEVE FROM THE UNSETTLED PATTERN. UPPER FLOW BECOMES
ZONAL TO SLIGHTLY NORTHWESTERLY FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK
WHICH IS AN MORE UNCERTAIN WEATHER PATTERN. THERE ARE SOME
INDICATIONS OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURNING ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
BUT GIVEN AN UNCERTAIN ZONAL PATTERN...ALONG WITH DIFFERENCES
BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF LATE IN THE PERIOD...WILL KEEP THE POPS
LOW FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
REGIONAL RADAR EARLY THIS MORNING SHOWS THE MAIN BAND OF LIGHT TO
MODERATE SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER DISTURBANCE BEGINNING TO
SHIFT EAST OF CAE/CUB. CEILINGS REMAIN VFR AT THE TERMINALS
CURRENTLY BUT BELIEVE DETERIORATION TO IFR WILL OCCUR OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS WHICH IS CONSISTENT WITH UPSTREAM OBSERVATIONS.
GENERALLY EXPECTING MVFR VISIBILITIES THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS BUT SOME OBSERVATIONS IN THE UPSTATE SHOWING IFR/LIFR
VISIBILITIES. CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW THAT THESE LOWER VISIBILITIES
WILL MAKE IT AS FAR EAST AS THE TAF SITES. GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT
EXPECTED AFTER 15Z TO AT LEAST MVFR CEILINGS AND VFR VISIBILITIES
WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER EXPECTED BEFORE YET ANOTHER
ROUND OF PRECIPITATION LATE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. CEILINGS MAY
RETURN TO VFR DURING THE AFTERNOON BUT LEANED TOWARD THE MORE
PESSIMISTIC MODEL OUTPUT WHICH KEEPS MVFR CEILINGS IN THROUGHOUT
THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD. LIGHT NORTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE DAY BEFORE BECOMING MORE EASTERLY LATE TONIGHT.

.EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...
EXPECT INCREASING RAIN CHANCES...AND ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. THUNDER AND HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE
SUNDAY/SUN NT. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE MONDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. NO IMPACTS TO AVIATION EXPECTED MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$





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