« Back
NWS Peachtree City, Ga » Text Product » CAE Area Forecast Discussion


Printer-friendly Version     Surrounding:  BMX  MRX  FFC  CAE  TAE  
Current Version              Previous Versions:   1  2  3  4  5  6  7  8  9  

Area Forecast Discussion

953
FXUS62 KCAE 020549
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
149 AM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST TOWARDS FLORIDA...
WHILE AN UPPER TROUGH WILL SHIFT SE FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TO
OFFSHORE THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. THIS WILL ENSURE THAT A
RELATIVELY DRY ATMOSPHERE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER OUR REGION
THROUGH LATE WEEK...WITH SOME INCREASE IN MAX TEMPS. INDICATIONS
OF A BACK DOOR FRONT AND INCREASING MOISTURE MAY SPELL INCREASING
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION BY THIS WEEKEND...ALONG WITH SLIGHTLY
COOLER TEMPS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
A WEAK SURFACE PRESSURE PATTERN WITH RIDGING ALOFT WILL DOMINATE
THROUGH TONIGHT. DEEP MOISTURE WILL REMAIN SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA.
SATELLITE TRENDS SUPPORT HIGH CLOUDINESS MAINLY IN THE SOUTHEAST
SECTION OF THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. PATCHY FOG SHOULD OCCUR
DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS MAINLY IN THE RIVER VALLEYS. THE
TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE WAS CONSISTENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER RIDGE WILL SHIFT WEST OVER FLORIDA AND THE EASTERN
GULF...WHILE MIDWEST CLOSED LOW OPENS AND SHIFTS SE TOWARDS THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST. UPPER ENERGY...CURRENTLY ALONG THE WEST COAST
OF FLORIDA MOVING NORTHEAST...AND MOISTURE TO OUR SOUTH APPEARS
WILL GET SUPPRESSED AND EJECTED TO THE EAST/SE...ALONG COASTAL
GEORGIA AND SOUTH CAROLINA...REMAINING SOUTHEAST OF OUR FA.
RELATIVELY DRY AIR APPEARS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER OUR
FA...THOUGH SOME SLIGHT INCREASE IN MOISTURE NOTED. SLIGHT CHANCE
MAINLY DIURNAL POPS APPEARS OK. TEMPERATURES WARMING THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS INTO THE MID 90S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
12Z GFS SIMILAR WITH 00Z ECMWF WITH SHIFTING UPPER LEVEL LOW FROM
THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO EAST INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN
STATES/CAROLINAS OVER THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. EXPECT AN
INCREASE IN MOISTURE DURING THE PERIOD. ENSEMBLE POP GUIDANCE
SUPPORTS CHANCE POPS AT LEAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. GFS DEVELOPING
WEAK LOW PRESSURE ALONG CAROLINA/GEORGIA COAST BY MONDAY BUT ECMWF
WEAKER AND MOISTURE MAINLY SOUTH OF THE AREA WITH SURFACE RIDGE
BUILDING SOUTH FROM MID ATLANTIC STATES. TEMPERATURES NEAR
CLIMATOLOGY NORMALS.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND A BUILDING UPPER RIDGE
ALOFT...ALONG WITH A GENERALLY DRY AIR MASS SHOULD LEAD TO AN
UNEVENTFUL WEATHER DAY. HOWEVER...STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING EARLY
THIS MORNING HAS ALREADY RESULTED IN MVFR VSBYS AT AGS AND EXPECT
MVFR/IFR VSBYS AT AGS AND EVENTUALLY LATER AT OGB. HRRR CEILING
FORECAST INDICATES SOME POSSIBLE LIFR CIGS MOVING INTO OGB AROUND
10-11Z BUT NO OTHER GUIDANCE SHOWING THIS AND WILL LEAVE OUT OF
THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME. LIGHT TO CALM WINDS THROUGH MID MORNING
THEN LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS EXPECTED WITH A PREVAILING SOUTHERLY
COMPONENT TO THE WINDS. PWAT VALUES AROUND 1.5 INCHES AND LACK OF
UPPER FORCING SUGGESTS CONVECTION PROBABILITIES ARE LOW AND WILL
NOT BE INCLUDED IN THE FORECAST.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN MAINLY EARLY
MORNING WITH FOG. BY LATE IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD...AFTERNOON AND
EVENING SCATTERED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

&&

$$



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.