« Back
NWS Peachtree City, Ga » Text Product » CAE Area Forecast Discussion


Printer-friendly Version     Surrounding:  BMX  MRX  FFC  CAE  TAE  
Current Version              Previous Versions:   1  2  3  4  5  6  7  8  9  

Area Forecast Discussion

509
FXUS62 KCAE 181110
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
610 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
THE PRESSURE RIDGE EXTENDING THROUGH THE MIDWEST WILL DIRECT DRY
AIR INTO THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH FRIDAY. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE
FRIDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKING EASTWARD ALONG THE
GULF COAST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE SURFACE PRESSURE RIDGE EXTENDING THROUGH THE MIDWEST WILL
DIRECT DRY AIR INTO THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH TONIGHT. SATELLITE
TRENDS SUPPORT UPPER-LEVEL CLOUDINESS IN THE FLAT FLOW. THE
TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE WAS CLOSE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
THE MODELS MAINTAIN THE DRY AIR MASS FRIDAY BUT SHOW AN INCREASE
IN MOISTURE FRIDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE EXPECTED TO TRACK
ALONG THE GULF COAST. THE NAM...GFS...AND ECMWF MOS HAVE POPS
LESS THAN 10 PERCENT THROUGH FRIDAY WITH THE CHANCE INCREASING
FROM WEST TO EAST FRIDAY NIGHT. THE MODELS HAVE TRENDED SLOWER
MOVING DEEPER MOISTURE INTO THE FORECAST AREA. ISENTROPIC LIFT
APPEARS WEAK. WE FORECASTED CHANCE POPS MAINLY LATE. MODEL
FORECAST SOUNDINGS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT INDICATING LIQUID
PRECIPITATION. USED THE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS FOR THE TEMPERATURE
FORECAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE PLUS LIFT AHEAD OF A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE
TROUGH SHOULD SUPPORT RAIN SATURDAY. THE MODELS ARE CONSISTENT
SHOWING DEEP MOISTURE. EXPECT LITTLE TEMPERATURE RECOVERY SATURDAY
BECAUSE OF CLOUDINESS AND RAIN. LEANED TOWARD JUST BELOW THE
COOLER SIDE OF THE TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE.

THE MODELS HAVE TRENDED WITH MORE MOISTURE SUNDAY WITH INCREASING
ISENTROPIC LIFT OVER A WEDGE RIDGE. THE GFS AND ECMWF MOS POPS
SUPPORT POPS OF 20 TO 30 PERCENT. THE TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE MAY BE
TOO WARM BECAUSE OF A WEDGE PATTERN.

HIGH MOISTURE MAY CONTINUE MONDAY AND TUESDAY AHEAD OF A WARM
FRONT WITH A DEEPENING UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IN THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY. THE WARM FRONT MAY LIFT NORTH OF THE AREA AHEAD OF A
STRONG COLD FRONT. THE MODELS HAVE NOT BEEN CONSISTENT WITH THE
TIMING OF THESE FEATURES BUT APPEAR TO BE TRENDING TOWARD COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE TUESDAY NIGHT. WINDY AND DRY CONDITIONS MAY
FOLLOW THE FRONT FOR WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH POSSIBLE EARLY
MORNING FOG RESTRICTIONS.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO PROMOTE DRY WEATHER AT ALL OF THE TAF
SITES. SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS TODAY. WINDS GENERALLY LIGHT THROUGH
THE TAF PERIOD. VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA EXPECTED TODAY.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED ON SATURDAY AS
A GULF COAST STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES THE REGION.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$






USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.