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Area Forecast Discussion

632
FXUS62 KCAE 081453
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
953 AM EST MON FEB 8 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND BREEZY CONDITIONS. DRY AND
COLD WEATHER EXPECTED TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY WITH BREEZY
CONDITIONS. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL COME THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH
LIMITED MOISTURE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WEST COAST. CLOSED LOW OVER THE WESTERN
GREAT LAKES. UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL SHIFT SE ACROSS OUR REGION
LATE TODAY AND EARLY EVENING. A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY MOVING INTO
E KY/TN WILL RAPIDLY SWEEP THROUGH OUR REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING. THIS FRONT WILL HAVE LIMITED MOISTURE TO WORK
WITH GIVEN PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ONLY AROUND 0.5 INCH. HIGH
RESOLUTION MODELS GENERALLY INDICATE BAND OF SHOWERS MOVING
THROUGH THE FA 19Z-01Z TIME FRAME. ACCEPTED MODEL CONSENSUS OF
CHANCE POPS. BREEZY CONDITIONS EXPECTED AHEAD OF AND BEHIND THE
FRONT FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY TONIGHT. CURRENT INDICATIONS
ARE WIND GUSTS AROUND 25 KT...JUST BELOW OUR LAKE WIND ADVISORY
CRITERIA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE W CONUS WITH TROUGH E CONUS. A
GENERAL NW ATMOSPHERIC FLOW WILL MAINTAIN A FEED OF COLDER AND
DRIER AIR INTO OUR REGION...WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
CONTINUED COLD AND GENERALLY DRY. MODELS MAINTAIN THE UPPER RIDGE
WEST/UPPER TROUGH EAST REGIME. BOTH GFS AND ECMWF MOVE A
REINFORCING COLD FRONT THROUGH FRIDAY. GFS HAS A LITTLE MORE
MOISTURE WITH IT. GIVEN THE OVERALL PATTERN...WILL FAVOR NO POPS
AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE TAF FORECAST PERIOD.

CURRENT TAF FORECAST ON TRACK WITH ONLY SLIGHT ADJUSTMENT FOR
DELAYED WIND SPEED INCREASE NEEDED. A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
CROSS THE AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH LIMITED MOISTURE
TO WORK WITH. LOCAL MODEL SHOWS LIGHT SCATTERED SHOWERS ALONG THE
FRONT THIS AFTERNOON...WILL KEEP OUT OF TERMINAL FORECASTS FOR NOW
AND MONITOR RADAR TRENDS. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS INCREASE THIS
AFTERNOON TO AROUND 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 TO 25 KNOTS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...BREEZY CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AT TIMES
THRU WED.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...99
NEAR TERM...99
SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM...99
AVIATION...87



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