« Back
NWS Peachtree City, Ga » Text Product » CAE Area Forecast Discussion


Printer-friendly Version     Surrounding:  BMX  MRX  FFC  CAE  TAE  
Current Version              Previous Versions:   1  2  3  4  5  6  7  8  9  

Area Forecast Discussion

817
FXUS62 KCAE 040514
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
114 AM EDT WED MAY 4 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. DRYING WILL OCCUR
BEHIND THE FRONT WEDNESDAY WITH A REINFORCING COLD FRONT CROSSING
THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MUCH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL
OCCUR BEHIND THIS FRONT FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THIS MORNING/...
A COLD FRONT CROSSING THE MIDLANDS THIS MORNING WILL MOVE OFF
THE COAST BY SUNRISE. DRIER AIR WAS MOVING INTO THE REGION AND
THE THREAT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAS DIMINISHED. SHORT
WAVE TROUGH/COLD AIR ALOFT MOVING THROUGH OVERNIGHT MAY TRIGGER A
SHOWER BUT WITH MOISTURE BECOMING SHALLOW. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE
IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
COLD FRONT WILL BE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA AS THE UPPER SHORTWAVE
CROSSES THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH LATE MORNING.  COOLER AND DRIER
AIR WILL WORK INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE FRONT AS SOMEWHAT MORE
WESTERLY MID LEVEL FLOW DEVELOPS.  TEMPERATURES WILL BE NOTICEABLY
COOLER WITH HIGHS STAYING IN THE MID AND UPPER 70S ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA.  DRY WEATHER EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY WITH PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES AROUND A HALF INCH AND DEWPOINTS BACK INTO THE 40S AND
50S WITH LITTLE INSTABILITY.

THE NEXT SHORTWAVE ROTATING THROUGH THE BROAD UPPER TROUGH WILL
CLOSE OFF AS IT DIVES INTO THE OHIO VALLEY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
DRIVING A DRY COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY. NO
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY WITH LITTLE MOISTURE
AVAILABLE AND LITTLE INSTABILITY.

THIS CLOSED LOW WILL SINK SOUTH OVER THE CAROLINAS ON THURSDAY
AND THE COMBINATION OF STRONG HEIGHT FALLS...STEEP LAPSE RATES
AROUND 8-9 C/KM...AND 500MB TEMPS AROUND -24C SHOULD SUPPORT AT
LEAST DIURNAL ISOLATED SHOWERS WITH SOME SMALL HAIL OR GRAUPEL
POSSIBLE...DESPITE PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ONLY AROUND A HALF
INCH. SHOWERS SHOULD DISSIPATE WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING IN THE
EVENING. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S
THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL BEGIN TO LIFT AWAY FROM THE FORECAST AREA ON
FRIDAY WITH DEEP NORTHWESTERLY FLOW PROVIDING DOWNSLOPING FLOW.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE RELATIVELY LOW AS WELL AROUND 0.60
INCHES AND WITH THE DOWNSLOPING FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE A
DRY FORECAST ON FRIDAY.

DRY NORTHWESTERLY FLOW CONTINUES INTO THE WEEKEND AS ANOTHER POTENT
UPPER TROUGH DIGS INTO NEW ENGLAND AND THE MID ATLANTIC BY SUNDAY
PUSHING A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT TOWARDS THE AREA.  POOLING MOISTURE
ALONG THE FRONT RAISES PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ABOVE AN INCH AND
MODELS INDICATE SOME WEAK TO POSSIBLY MODERATE INSTABILITY
DEVELOPING WHICH COULD SUPPORT SOME ISOLATED CONVECTION ACROSS THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. A DETERRING FACTOR FOR
PRECIPITATION CONTINUES TO BE THE DOWNSLOPING NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT.

THE FRONT BECOMES DIFFUSE BENEATH A BUILDING UPPER RIDGE MONDAY BUT
THEN REDEVELOPS AS A WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTHWARD ON TUESDAY NORTH
OF THE AREA IN RESPONSE TO INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER TROUGH LIFTING FROM THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
INTO THE OHIO VALLEY.  AT THIS TIME WILL HOLD A DRY FORECAST THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK BUT DEPENDING ON WHERE THE WARM FRONT DEVELOPS...MAY
NEED TO ADD SOME POPS ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA.

TEMPERATURES DURING THIS PERIOD WILL BEGIN BELOW NORMAL ON FRIDAY
WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S AND LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT IN THE 50S...THEN
GRADUALLY MODERATE WARMER TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES EARLY NEXT
WEEK.  HIGHS ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY EXPECTED TO RETURN TO THE UPPER
80S TO AROUND 90 DEGREES.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH
06Z THURSDAY. VFR CEILINGS SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS UNTIL A COLD FRONT SHIFTS EAST OF THE TERMINALS AND
DRIER AIR MOVES IN BEHIND IT. WEST WINDS COULD BECOME GUSTY AT
TIMES THIS AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY AT KOGB AND THE AUGUSTA AREA
TERMINALS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.