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Area Forecast Discussion

288
FXUS62 KCAE 300905
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
505 AM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA TODAY. SHOWERS
AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL OCCUR MAINLY THIS MORNING. THE PRESSURE
RIDGE BEHIND THE FRONT WILL MOVE OVER THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED SOUTH OF THE REGION TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
CONVERGENCE AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT AND LIFT AHEAD OF AN H5
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL HELP SUPPORT SHOWERS...MAINLY EARLY TODAY.
THE HIGH-RESOLUTION MODELS DISPLAY SHOWERS IN THE WEST PART OF THE
FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING...AND IN THE EAST PART LATE THIS
MORNING AND EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THE MODELS INDICATE LESS
INSTABILITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM AS IT SHIFTS EASTWARD AND
INTO THE DRY AIR INITIALLY IN PLACE. LIGHTNING HAS BEEN
DIMINISHING UPSTREAM. THESE TRENDS PLUS THE DIURNAL TIMING FAVORS
SHOWERS INSTEAD OF THUNDERSTORMS. LEANED TOWARD THE WARMER
TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE BASED ON A RELATIVELY WARM START AND EXPECTED
AFTERNOON SUN WITH A WESTERLY AND SOMEWHAT DOWNSLOPE FLOW.

HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BE CENTERED NEAR THE FORECAST
AREA TONIGHT. NORTHWEST FLOW WILL OCCUR ALOFT. EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES WITH LIGHT WINDS. STRONG NOCTURNAL COOLING SHOULD OCCUR. THE
TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE WAS CLOSE WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE LOWER 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
THE MODELS DISPLAY A PRESSURE RIDGE SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS FEATURE SHOULD LIMIT MOISTURE
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT FORECAST TO SINK SOUTHWARD AND INTO THE AREA
TUESDAY NIGHT. THE GFS AND NAM MOS PLUS SREF GUIDANCE HAVE POPS 20
PERCENT OR LESS. THE TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE WAS CLOSE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE GFS AND ECMWF DISPLAY HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING INTO THE FORECAST
AREA FROM THE NORTH WEDNESDAY. THE GFS HAS SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE
SUPPRESSED WELL SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE ECMWF DISPLAYS
THIS MOISTURE CLOSER TO THE AREA...BUT THE LATEST RUN HAS TRENDED
FARTHER SOUTH. KEPT JUST A SMALL POP IN THE SOUTH PART WHICH WILL
BE CLOSER TO THE DEEPER MOISTURE.

HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTING FARTHER OFF THE COAST SHOULD CIRCULATE
MORE OF AN ONSHORE FLOW INTO THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY. THIS
MOISTURE PLUS ISENTROPIC LIFT SUPPORTS SHOWERS. THE ECMWF HAS
INDICATED GREATER MOISTURE COMPARED TO THE GFS. AN AVERAGE OF THE
GFS AND ECMWF MOS SUPPORT CHANCE POPS THURSDAY.

THE GFS AND ECMWF INDICATE MUCH OF THE ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE LIFTING
NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY. THE GFS AND ECMWF MOS HAVE LESS
OF A SHOWER CHANCE.

THE MORE SIGNIFICANT SHOWER CHANCE MAY OCCUR FRIDAY NIGHT OR
SATURDAY ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT. HEATING AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT MAY ALSO HELP CAUSE THUNDERSTORMS. THE ECMWF HAS BEEN
FASTER WITH THIS FEATURE INDICATING SHOWERS FRIDAY NIGHT AND
DRYING SATURDAY. WE FORECASTED CHANCE POPS BOTH FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY.

THE MODELS WERE CONSISTENT WITH A DRY PATTERN BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT SUNDAY.

THE GFS AND ECMWF MOS HAVE TEMPERATURES NEAR OR ABOVE NORMAL
THROUGH THE MEDIUM-RANGE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE 24-HOUR TAF PERIOD. SOME MID-
LEVEL CLOUDS MOVING INTO THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. WILL MENTION -SHRA IN THE TAFS WITH
POSSIBILITY OF BRIEF MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS IN SHOWERS LATER THIS
MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON. COVERAGE WILL NOT BE WIDESPREAD
AND ANY AMOUNTS SHOULD BE RATHER LIGHT. EXPECT WEST TO EAST FROPA
ACROSS THE AREA 19Z-22Z FOLLOWED BY CLEARING SKIES.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...MOSTLY
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD WITH INCREASING
MOISTURE AND RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY IN
SCATTERED SHOWERS AS ANOTHER FRONT APPROACHES AND MOVES THROUGH.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$






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