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Area Forecast Discussion

451
FXUS62 KCAE 251851
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
151 PM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE OFF THE COAST BY LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING IN THE GULF OF MEXICO
WILL LIFT NORTHEAST ADDING SUFFICIENT MOISTURE FOR SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL SPREAD
ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES TO
TEXAS WILL AMPLIFY THROUGH TONIGHT. SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY MOVING
THROUGH THE BASE OF THE TROUGH OVER TEXAS WILL CROSS THE SOUTHERN
STATES OVERNIGHT.

A COLD FRONT WAS SLOWLY CROSSING THE MIDLANDS THIS AFTERNOON.
MOISTURE SURGING NORTHWARD FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL KEEP
WIDESPREAD LIGHT RAIN CROSSING THE EASTERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE
FORECAST AREA INTO TONIGHT. WILL CONTINUE MENTION OF CATEGORICAL POPS
TO CATEGORICAL CENTRAL AND EAST WITH CHANCE POPS TO THE WEST. HIGH
TEMPERATURES TODAY ARE GENERALLY IN THE LOWER 60S BUT WILL FALL
AFTER THE FRONT MOVES EASTWARD.

LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING IN THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL MOVE NORTHEAST
CROSSING NORTH FLORIDA AND MOVING ALONG THE COAST TONIGHT. THE
RAIN IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD WESTWARD THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS
THE SURFACE LOW MOVES ALONG THE COAST. KEPT THE CHANCE OF RAIN NEAR
100 PERCENT OVERNIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN MOVING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THE GULF
COAST STATES TO THE EAST COAST ON WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
SURFACE LOW TO DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT OFF THE CAROLINA COAST
WEDNESDAY MORNING WHICH WILL MOVE UP THE COAST DURING THE DAY AND
INTO THE DELMARVA REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WRAP AROUND MOISTURE AND
RAIN BEHIND THE SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION EARLY IN
THE DAY WITH THE RAIN GRADUALLY DIMINISHING FROM THE WEST DURING
THE AFTERNOON. CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO DECREASE LATE WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. EXPECT THE CLOUDS TO KEEP TEMPS
DOWN WEDNESDAY WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE 50S. LOWS WEDNESDAY
NIGHT WILL DIP INTO THE MID 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
IN THURSDAY AND FRIDAY REMAINING OVER THE AREA INTO THE WEEKEND.
GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING THURSDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHTS WITH OVERNIGHT
MINS IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S. HIGHS BOTH DAYS WILL BE IN THE
50S. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO REBOUND SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY WITH
AFTERNOON HIGHS REACHING INTO THE 60S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS DIPPING
INTO THE 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ALL OF THE MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT ON DEVELOPING AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO TODAY AND MOVING IT
NORTHEAST UP ALONG THE SOUTHEAST/MID ATLANTIC COAST THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. 88D REGIONAL COMPOSITE CONTINUES TO SHOW A BAND OF
SHOWERS ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE STATE. THIS ACTIVITY
CONTINUES WELL TO THE SOUTHWEST BACK INTO SE GEORGIA AND THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE INTO THE GULF. A COLD FRONT REMAINS TO OUR WEST THIS
MORNING AND OBS INDICATE THE FRONT HAS PUSHED JUST EAST OF THE
APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS AND INTO THE UPSTATE AND NRN GA. THE MODELS
TRY TO PUSH THE FRONT EASTWARD THROUGH THE DAY AND OFF THE COAST BY
THIS AFTERNOON. WV LOOP SHOWS GOOD SW FLOW IN THE MID/UPPER
ATMOSPHERE AHEAD OF THE MAIN S/W...ACROSS SRN TX...THAT WILL HELP
INITIATE LOW PRESSURE IN THE GULF. THE TAFS WILL BE VERY TRICKY
THROUGH THE PERIOD AND CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT THIS TIME AS THERE WILL
BE PERIODS OF IFR TO VFR CONDITIONS TODAY. EXPECT CONDITIONS TO
LOWER LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING AS THE MAIN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
BEGINS TO MOVE UP THE COAST AND CLOSER TO THE REGION. ALSO EXPECT
THE RAINFALL TO BECOME STEADIER DURING THE LATER PART OF THE TAF
PERIOD AND CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. WILL CONTINUE WITH A
MIX OF IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS THIS MORNING WITH A MENTION OF VCSH OR A
TEMPO GROUP FOR SHOWERS. THERE LOOKS TO BE A SLIGHT BREAK IN THE
PRECIPITATION/LOW CEILINGS FROM MID MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON
ESPECIALLY FOR THE INLAND SITES. EXPECT OGB TO CONTINUE TO HAVE THE
LOWEST CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD. WIND WILL BE FROM THE
SOUTHWEST THIS MORNING THEN GRADUALLY TURNING TO THE WEST AND
NORTHWEST THROUGH THE DAY...THEN MORE NORTHERLY LATER IN THE TAF
PERIOD THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING.

EXPECT THE HEAVIEST AND STEADIEST RAINFALL LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT AS THE LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...WIDESPREAD MVFR OR IFR CONDITIONS MAY
OCCUR AGAIN WEDNESDAY MORNING AS THE LOW CONTINUES TO DEEPEN.
CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE LATE WEDNESDAY/WED NIGHT AS THE LOW PRESSURE
AREA TRAVELS UP ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR SCZ030.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$






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