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Area Forecast Discussion

861
FXUS62 KCAE 202341
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
741 PM EDT WED AUG 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DRIER AIR AND A BUILDING UPPER RIDGE JUST TO OUR WEST WILL REDUCE
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THROUGH FRIDAY...AND LEAD TO HOTTER HIGH
TEMPERATURES. AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT AND INCREASING MOISTURE
WILL INCREASE THE THUNDERSTORM CHANCE OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
SCATTERED CONVECTION HAS DIMINISHED ACROSS THE AREA EARLY THIS
EVENING. STILL SOME ACTIVITY WELL UPSTREAM OVER ERN TN AND NRN GA
BUT EXPECT THOSE STORMS TO STAY WELL WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA.
NOCTURNAL COOLING WITH DRY AIR ALOFT AND LIGHT WIND SHOULD HELP
SUPPORT AREAS OF FOG TOWARD SUNRISE. THE TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE WAS
CONSISTENT WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD JUST TO OUR WEST. THIS AND A LOW LEVEL
DOWNSLOPE FLOW WILL LEAD TO WARMING TEMPS. MODELS CONTINUE TO
INDICATE MAX TEMPS NEAR 100 DEGREES MOST AREAS...AND CONTINUE TO
INDICATES DEW POINTS MIXING DOWN INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S ACROSS
THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN COUNTIES TO NEAR 70 OR LOWER 70S ACROSS
THE SOUTHEAST MIDLANDS. THIS KEEPS HEAT INDICES JUST BELOW OUR
HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA OF 110F. ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS/TSTMS EXPECTED DUE TO BUILDING RIDGE ALOFT...AND FAIRLY
DRY LOW LEVEL AIR LEADING TO AND HIGH LEVELS OF FREE
CONVECTION/HIGH CONVECTIVE TEMPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
UPPER RIDGE TO OUR WEST WITH UPPER TROUGH AND CLOSED LOW TO OUR
NE...PROVIDING A NW FLOW ALOFT FOR OUR FA. SOME TIMING
UNCERTAINTIES WITH A BACK DOOR FRONT. MODELS TRENDING A LITTLE
SLOWER WITH IT OF LATE...WITH POSSIBILITY THAT IT MAY NOT MAKE IT
TO OUR FA UNTIL SATURDAY AFTERNOON OR EVENING...SLOWLY PUSHING
SOUTH THROUGH SUNDAY. INCREASING POPS/THUNDER CHANCE ALONG AND
SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY...WITH COOLER TEMPS NORTH OF IT. FRONT TO
PUSH TO OUR SOUTH EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH SURFACE AND UPPER RIDGE
OVER THE EASTERN SEABOARD.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS CONTINUE ACROSS THE UPSTATE SC AND ALONG
EASTERN GA. WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING...ACTIVITY SHOULD CONTINUE TO
DIMINISH. BROKEN CIRRUS FROM CONVECTIVE DEBRIS WILL MOVE THROUGH
THE REGION EARLY TONIGHT...WHICH WILL HELP TO KEEP CONDITIONS VFR
THROUGH MIDNIGHT. LATE TONIGHT THOSE CLOUDS MAY THIN ENOUGH THAT
WITH LIGHT WINDS AND LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE...SOME MVFR FOG
MAY BE ABLE TO FORM AT AGS/DNL/OGB. CAE/CUB MAY SEE VISIBILITIES
AT SUNRISE AROUND 5-6SM. ALTHOUGH GUIDANCE CONTINUE TO TREND
TOWARDS VFR AT ALL SITES...AM SLIGHTLY MORE CONFIDENT IN MVFR AT
AGS/DNL DUE TO EARLIER RAINFALL ACROSS THAT AREA. HEATING AND
MIXING SHOULD DISSIPATE ANY FOG BEGINNING AROUND 13Z. WINDS
THROUGH THE PERIOD SHOULD REMAIN GENERALLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE DUE
TO A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MVFR OR IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN LATE
NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING FOG THROUGH THE PERIOD. ISOLATED AFTERNOON
AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS MAY ALSO BRING RESTRICTIONS.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

&&

$$










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