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Area Forecast Discussion

375
FXUS62 KCAE 050009
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
709 PM EST WED MAR  4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL BRING A DRASTIC TEMPERATURE CHANGE
BACK TO THE REGION AS IT MOVES THROUGH ON THURSDAY. THIS FRONT
WILL PROVIDE SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY. BEHIND THE FRONT...MUCH COOLER
AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. THE
FRONT WILL STALL NEAR THE COAST FRIDAY BEFORE MOVING FARTHER
OFFSHORE SATURDAY. MOISTURE RETURN POSSIBLE SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
THE COLD FRONT TO OUR NW STRETCHING FROM NORTHERN MS NORTHEAST
INTO WESTERN VA WILL SLOWLY PUSH SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE REGION
TONIGHT. EXPECT BY 12Z THAT THE FRONT WILL BE PUSHING INTO THE
UPSTATE. THIS TIMING IS IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE
MODELS. WITH A LOW LEVEL JET AROUND 35 KNOTS OVERNIGHT AND MILD SW
WINDS...EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN UNSEASONABLY MILD OVERNIGHT.
ACTUALLY CLOSER TO THE NORMALS FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR EARLY
MARCH. GUIDANCE AND LOCAL NUMBERS IN THE LOWER 60S AND WILL STAY
CLOSE TO CONSENSUS OVERNIGHT. AS THE FRONT APPROACHES...POPS WILL
GRADUALLY INCREASE FROM THE NW. HAVE INCLUDED A SLIGHT CHANCE/LOW
CHANCE POP BY LATE TONIGHT TOWARD EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
THURSDAY A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL BE JUST OFF TO THE NORTHWEST OF
THE CWA TO START OFF THE DAY. THIS WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE
REGION DURING THE DAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE CWA WILL BE
HIGHLY DEPENDENT UPON WHEN THE COLD FRONT BEGINS TO MOVE INTO THE
AREA. HIGHS ACROSS THE NORTHERN COUNTIES WILL LIKELY OCCUR BEFORE
NOON...WITH TEMPERATURES REACHING THE LOWER 60S BEFORE FALLING
THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON. ACROSS THE MIDLANDS...HIGH WILL OCCUR
SHORTLY AFTER NOON...WITH TEMPERATURES REACHING THE MIDDLE 60S TO
LOWER 70S...THEN BEGINNING TO FALL LATER IN THE AFTERNOON.
MEANWHILE COUNTIES ACROSS THE SOUTH WILL EXPERIENCE PEAK HEATING
THROUGH THE DAY...WITH AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES REACHING BACK INTO
THE MIDDLE 70S BEFORE THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. ALONG WITH THE
FRONT...THE REGION CAN EXPECT A ROUND OF SHOWERS TO MOVE ACROSS
THE AREA FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGHOUT THE DAY. BEST RAIN CHANCES
WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTH. WINDS THROUGH THE DAY WILL ONCE AGAIN BE
GUSTY.

THURSDAY NIGHT THE FRONT WILL BE PUSHING INTO THE SOUTHERN CWA.
DRASTIC TEMPERATURE CHANGE ONCE AGAIN BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH
TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 30S THROUGH THE
NIGHT. THERE WILL BE SOME LINGERING PRECIP ACROSS THE EASTERN
COUNTIES...BUT AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS AS IF THE PRECIP WILL BE
MOVING OUT OF THE CWA BY THE TIME ANY TEMPERATURES REACH FREEZING.
HOWEVER IF THE TIMING IS OFF ON EITHER THE PRECIP OR TEMPERATURES...A
BRIEF PERIOD OF LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE COULD BE POSSIBLE FOR SOME
NORTHEASTERN AREAS LATE THURSDAY NIGHT/EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.
THIS WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED.

FRIDAY MORNING WILL START OFF COLD...WITH READINGS IN THE 30S.
STRONG COLD ADVECTION THROUGH THE DAY WILL NOT ALLOW TEMPERATURES
TO CLIMB MUCH THROUGHOUT THE DAY. LIGHT PRECIP CHANCES WILL REMAIN
EAST OF THE CWA THROUGH THE DAY...CLOSER TO THE COAST.  THE
COLDEST AIR WILL BE ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA...AND CLOSER TO THE
COAST. AREAS ACROSS THE EAST SHOULD REMAIN IN THE 30S THROUGH THE
DAY...WHILE CENTRAL AND WESTERN COUNTIES MAY REACH THE LOWER 40S.
NORTHERLY WINDS BETWEEN 5 AND 10 MPH WILL MAKE IT FEEL MUCH
COLDER.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...DRY WEATHER PATTERN EXPECTED
THROUGH THIS PERIOD AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES OFF SHORE.
TEMPERATURES ONCE AGAIN BELOW FREEZING FRIDAY NIGHT...BUT DO
EXPECT TO SEE A SLOW MODERATING TREND THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
TEMPERATURES BY EARLY NEXT WEEK SHOULD ONCE AGAIN CLIMB BACK UP
TO AROUND NORMAL...WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S AND LOWS IN THE 40S.
STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE LONGER TERM IN REGARDS TO POPS.
MODELS STILL NOT IN MUCH AGREEMENT THROUGH THE PERIOD...SO FOR THE
MOST PART HAVE CONTINUED WITH A BLEND OF LATEST FORECAST AND
NEWEST HPC GUIDANCE. THIS GENERALLY KEEPS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
PRECIP FROM THE BEGINNING OF THE WORK WEEK ONWARD.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR THIS EVENING WITH INCREASING MID LEVEL CLOUDS AND SOUTHWEST
WINDS 5 TO 10 KNOTS. A 30 TO 40 KNOT LOW LEVEL JET WILL SET UP
TONIGHT...SO COULD SEE WIND GUST NEAR 20 KNOTS OVERNIGHT.

WIDESPREAD LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURNS WITH CIGS BECOMING LIFR AROUND
06Z FOR AGS/DNL AND 07Z-09Z AT CAE/CUB/OGB. VSBYS SHOULD ONLY LOWER
TO MVFR DUE TO STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT AND WINDS STAYING UP.
SOUTHWEST WINDS INCREASE AFTER SUNRISE AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES
FROM THE WEST. MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY 15Z WITH RAIN SHOWERS
MOVING INTO THE TAF SITES 15Z-18Z TIME-FRAME. THE COLD FRONT WILL
CROSS THE TAF SITES IN THE 18Z-21Z TIME-FRAME...WITH WINDS SHIFTING
TO THE NORTH...THEN NORTHEAST.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...WIDESPREAD MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS AND
GUSTY WINDS WILL LINGER THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. NO RESTRICTIONS
EXPECTED SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY. CIG/VSBY RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS A WEDGE PATTERN DEVELOPS.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$





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