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Area Forecast Discussion

FXUS62 KCAE 240757

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
357 AM EDT WED AUG 24 2016

High pressure and upper level ridging will remain in control of
the region through much of the period. This will keep dry
conditions over the area into the weekend. Moisture will increase
through the weekend as Atlantic moisture returns to the area with
chances of thunderstorms returning Sunday into next week.


High pressure ridge will remain in control at the surface with
upper level ridge across the southeastern US. Remains of an old
frontal boundary south of the area will continue weakening and
reorienting to the west of the area with dry air blanketing the
forecast area. This will keep dry conditions with scattered
clouds across the area today and tonight. Have increased
temperatures slightly with afternoon highs in the low 90s and lows
tonight in the upper 60s.


Ridge of high pressure at the surface and aloft will continue
dominating the region through Friday night. With the upper level
ridge nearly centered over the region and dry air through much of
the column convection will remain suppressed. As such expect
partly cloudy skies and with the upper level ridge over the area
temperatures will continue climbing slightly. Afternoon highs will
be in the low to mid 90s Thursday and mid 90s Friday...with
overnight lows in the upper 60s to around 70 Thursday night and
low 70s Friday night.


Models are in good agreement through Saturday with differences
increasing from Sunday through Tuesday. Upper level ridging and
weak high pressure will remain over the region through much of the
long term with easterly flow increasing through the tropics.
Models continue to make significant run to run changes in regard
to the tropics with large model to model differences as well. As
such expect moisture to increase across the region from Saturday
through Tuesday...however due to considerable uncertainty due to
model differences and run to run changes have made few changes to
the long term forecast. Temperatures through the long term will be
above normal.


Expect VFR conditions through the period.

Pressure ridge extending into the area from the Mid Atlantic
region. Mid level clouds over the area have diminished across the
area early this morning along with isolated showers in the CSRA.
Latest HRRR/lamp suggest low fog threat overnight. Radiation fog
scheme also indicates low threat with relatively low cross-over
temperatures. Will go with a VFR forecast through the morning.
Light winds becoming northeast to east/southeast during the
afternoon...10 knots or less. Expect scattered high level cumulus
as drier air spreads southwest from eastern North Carolina in the
afternoon...although possibly broken ceilings at times at least
early in the day.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...No significant impacts to aviation
expected through Sunday.





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