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Area Forecast Discussion

180
FXUS62 KCAE 240759
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
359 AM EDT THU JUL 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER TROUGH CROSSING THE EASTERN CONUS WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT
INTO THE AREA LATE TODAY. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
AHEAD OF THE FRONT THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE FRONT WILL
BECOME STATIONARY ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY AND WEAKEN.
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ISOLATED INTO THE WEEKEND AND TEMPERATURES
WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SHORT WAVE ENERGY MOVING SOUTHEAST FROM GREAT LAKES REGION WILL
SHARPEN THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN STATES AND DRIVE A
WEAKENING COLD FRONT INTO THE REGION LATE TODAY. PRECIPITABLE
WATER REMAINS HIGH...AROUND 2 INCHES. MODERATE INSTABILITY
EXPECTED BY AFTERNOON AS TEMPERATURES RISE INTO THE LOW TO MID 90S
AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH INCREASING SOUTHWEST WINDS/WEAK WARM
ADVECTION. LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE APPEARS STRONGEST IN THE NORTH
MIDLANDS AND PEE DEE. FRONT EXPECTED TO BE NEAR THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON...MOVING SLOWLY TO THE EAST. AREA IN FAVORABLE ENTRANCE
REGION OF UPPER LEVEL JET WITH RESULTING MODERATELY STRONG UPWARD
VERTICAL MOTION. ALTHOUGH STRONGER DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND LIFT TO
THE EAST AND NORTH OF REGION ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
POSSIBLE. DAMAGING WIND MAIN THREAT DUE TO PRECIPITATION LOADING MAINLY
NORTH MIDLANDS AND PEE DEE. LOCALIZED FLOODING POSSIBLE. WITH FRONT MOVING
INTO AREA...THINK MOS CONSENSUS POPS A LITTLE LOW ESPECIALLY IN
THE NORTH MIDLANDS AND PEE DEE. SREF SUPPORTS HIGHER POPS...SO
WENT LIKELY IN THOSE REGIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FRONT WILL MOVE SLOWLY THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE EVENING WITH
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. DEEPER MOISTURE
SHIFTS TO THE COAST AFTER MIDNIGHT AND EXPECT DECREASING POPS
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. MOS TEMPERATURES LOOK OK.

FRONT APPEARS TO BECOME STATIONARY/DIFFUSE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
SOUTH CAROLINA FRIDAY/SATURDAY. WEAK MID LEVEL SHORT WAVES
POSSIBLY MOVING THRU THE AREA BUT WEAK UPPER LEVEL FLAT RIDGE
BUILDING LATER ON SATURDAY. DEEPER MOISTURE TO THE EAST. AIR MASS
WEAKLY TO MODERATELY UNSTABLE. FOCUS FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
FRIDAY AFTERNOON IN THE EAST MIDLANDS NEAR FRONTAL
BOUNDARY/CONVERGENCE AREA. CONVECTION EXPECTED TO BE MORE ISOLATED
ON SATURDAY WITH WEAKER FORCING. TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL ON SATURDAY. PREFER
WARMER MAV GUIDANCE THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH RECENT COOL BIAS OF
THE MET.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND TOWARD AN AMPLIFICATION OF THE LONG WAVE
PATTERN WITH A RIDGE IN THE WEST AND A TROUGH IN THE EAST.

THE UPPER PATTERN ONCE AGAIN AMPLIFIES EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH A
RIDGE IN THE WEST AND A DEEP TROUGH. THIS SHOULD PUSH ANOTHER COLD
FRONT TOWARD THE REGION ON TUESDAY. WE KEPT A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS/TSTMS FRIDAY DIMINISHING TO ISOLATED FOR SATURDAY. CHANCE
POPS WERE RETAINED FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY. MAINLY DRY FOR TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE NEAR NORMAL SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...THEN
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS TO DOMINATE THE PERIOD...WITH EARLY MORNING FOG
POSSIBLE AT AGS/OGB.

SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS SOME MID AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS THE
AREA WITH THE COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL TN. WINDS WILL
REMAIN AROUND 4 KNOTS OVERNIGHT AND WITH THE SCATTERED CLOUDS HELP
TO PREVENT FOG...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF FOG PRONE AGS AND OGB
WHERE MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BETWEEN 08 AND 12Z. MAIN
CONCERN WILL BE FRONTAL PASSAGE AND CONVECTION WITH THE FRONT.
HAVE REMAINED WITH VCSH AS CONFIDENCE IN TIMING AND COVERAGE
REMAIN LOW. FRONT WILL MOVE EAST OF THE TAF SITES AFTER 25/00Z
WITH DRIER AIR MOVING INTO THE REGION. WINDS WILL BE SOUTHWESTERLY
AROUND 8 KNOTS THIS MORNING...VEERING TO WESTERLY AND INCREASING
TO 10 KNOTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KNOTS THROUGH 25/00Z...FINALLY
SUBSIDING TO WESTERLY AROUND 7 KNOTS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...CIG/VSBY RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE DUE TO
DIURNAL CONVECTION THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$






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