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Area Forecast Discussion

171
FXUS62 KCAE 160539
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
139 AM EDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY
THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BRING COOLER AND DRIER AIR TO THE REGION FOR
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THIS MORNING/...
WEDGE WILL REMAIN ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT. ANY BREAKS
IN THE CLOUDS ALLOWING RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL LIKELY FILL IN
QUICKLY. EXPECT PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT LATE TONIGHT WITH ABUNDANT
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE STILL IN PLACE. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE NIGHT AS WEAK ENERGY RIDES UP AND OVER THE SURFACE
WEDGE. CAN NOT RULE OUT SOME THUNDER ALONG THE EDGES OF THE WEDGE
FRONT WHERE SLIGHTLY BETTER INSTABILITY EXISTS. EXPECT TEMPERATURES
TO DROP SLOWLY...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS AROUND 70.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DEEPEN ACROSS THE EASTERN STATES
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. AS THE TROUGH DEEPENS...A SERIES OF SHORT
WAVES WILL CROSS THE REGION. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA
TUESDAY WITH DRIER AIR FILTERING IN FROM THE NORTH WEDNESDAY.
FRONTAL CONVERGENCE COUPLED WITH WEAK INSTABILITY AND LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL HOLD A CHANCE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS ACROSS THE AREA. KEPT
POPS IN THE 20 TO 30 PERCENT RANGE. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OF
THE CSRA TUESDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE OHIO
RIVER VALLEY TO THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE
IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 80S TUESDAY WITH UPPER 70S TO UPPER 80S
WEDNESDAY AS THE HIGH PUSHES COOLER AIR INTO THE AREA. SHOULD SEE
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MIDDLE 60S TO AROUND 70 TUESDAY
NIGHT...FALLING TO THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MODELS HOLD AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN STATES THROUGH
THE LONG TERM. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THURSDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY. PWAT IS FORECAST TO BE LESS THAN 1.50 INCHES.
A NORTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL
WITH HIGH IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80 AND LOWS IN THE LOWER 60S.

A COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO CROSS THE AREA MONDAY WITH WARM AIR
ADVECTION AND INCREASING MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE FRONT. INTRODUCED A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS MONDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR
NORMAL...IN THE LOW TO MID 80S SUNDAY AND MONDAY. LOWS SUNDAY
NIGHT SHOULD BE IN THE MID 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MAINLY MVFR/IFR RESTRICTIONS THROUGH MORNING THEN BECOMING VFR.

WEDGE CONTINUES TO HANG IN ACROSS THE CWA TONIGHT WITH MOST SITES
REPORTING IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS. EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONTINUE WITH
CONDITIONS GRADUALLY WORSENING TO IFR AT ALL TAF SITES. RADAR
INDICATING SCATTERED SHOWERS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE AREA. BRIEF
MODERATE OR HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE NEAR TERMINALS THROUGH EARLY
MORNING. THIS WILL RESULT IN REDUCED VISIBILITY AND CEILINGS.

WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION DURING THE DAY. LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO DECREASING DURING THE MORNING AND
EXPECT HIGHER CEILINGS BY MIDDAY AS LOW TO MID LEVEL WINDS
INCREASE FROM THE WEST-NORTHWEST. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE HOWEVER WITH FRONT SLOW TO MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE MAINLY DURING
THE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING IN STRATUS AND OR LIGHT FOG.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$






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