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Area Forecast Discussion

135
FXUS62 KCAE 231822
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
222 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST WILL KEEP DRY WEATHER
ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WILL BUILD SOUTHEAST
INTO THE CAROLINAS. SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT CONTINUES TO
WEAKEN AND LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. DEW POINTS REMAIN LOW
AND POTENTIAL AGAIN FOR STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING.
HOWEVER...HIGH CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IN THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ADVECT EAST TOWARD THE REGION LATE TONIGHT.
STAYED CLOSE TO MOS TEMPERATURES BUT IT MAY BE COOLER ESPECIALLY IN
SOME OUTLYING AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES SHOULD
BE A LITTLE WARMER WITH NEUTRAL 850MB TEMPERATURE ADVECTION BUT
DOWNSLOPE FLOW. ALTHOUGH UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING OVER THE AREA
IN THE AFTERNOON WITH HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS. WILL CONTINUE SLIGHT
WARM UP. CONTINUED WARMING TREND SATURDAY AS DOWNSLOPE FLOW
CONTINUES AND WEAK WARM ADVECTION. WEAK TROUGH MOVING THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT WITH LIMITED MOISTURE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
DRY HIGH PRESSURE AIR MASS TO BUILD INTO THE REGION SUN INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. UPPER TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
LATE IN THE PERIOD WITH COLD FRONT POSSIBLY MOVING INTO THE AREA
ON THURSDAY. MOISTURE APPEARS LIMITED...ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS MAINLY ON THURSDAY ASSOCIATED WITH FRONT. BUT
A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY AS AIR MASS BECOMES
MARGINALLY UNSTABLE AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES AS SURFACE
RIDGE MOVES OFFSHORE. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE ABOVE NORMAL WITH AS
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS FROM THE ATLANTIC INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN
STATES.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. WINDS
BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE. SOME HIGH CLOUDS EXPECTED MAINLY LATE
TONIGHT THROUGH END OF TAF PERIOD AS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES
FROM THE WEST. WITH DRY AIR MASS SO FOG NOT EXPECTED TONIGHT.

.EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...
NO IMPACTS TO AVIATION EXPECTED.

MANNING

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$






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