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Area Forecast Discussion

894
FXUS62 KCAE 230731
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
231 AM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
MOISTURE ALREADY RETURNING TO THE AREA AS SHOWERS CONTINUE TO PUSH
NORTHWARD ACROSS THE GA/SC. EXPECT PLENTY OF RAINFALL TO OCCUR
TODAY AND TONIGHT. A FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION MONDAY AND
IS EXPECTED TO STALL NEAR THE COAST TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
UPDATED THE FORECAST FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD AS
88D REGIONAL SHOWS SHOWERS MOVING QUICKLY NORTHWARD ACROSS THE
PALMETTO STATE. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW IMPRESSIVE ISENTROPIC LIFT
DEVELOPING NORTHWARD THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS INTO THE DAYTIME
HOURS. THIS WILL HELP DEVELOP THE VERY WEAK SURFACE WEDGE THAT
WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY. THE HRRR MODEL
APPEARS TO BE ON TRACK WITH CURRENT RADAR TRENDS. AS THE RAIN
FILLS IN ACROSS THE STATE AND THE AIRMASS BECOMES NEARLY
SATURATED...EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO LEVEL OUT AND BE SLOW TO MOVE
UPWARD THROUGH THE DAY. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN IN THE
MIDDLE 40S TO LOWER 50S THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
BY SUNDAY...S/W WILL BE ACROSS THE LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY. LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. A WARM FRONT TO
OUR SOUTH WILL BEGIN TO TRY AND PUSH NORTHWARD THROUGH THE DAY ON
SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT. LOOKING A MODEL LI FIELDS ALONG WITH SOME
WEAK SURFACE RIDING AND SFC WINDS FROM THE NE/E FOR MUCH OF THE
DAY ON SUNDAY. THIS INDICATES AT LEAST SOME WEAK WEDGE CONDITIONS
ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL
MIDLANDS ALONG WITH THE NRN CSRA. WITH INCREASING ISENTROPIC LIFT
AND MOISTURE FLUX INTO THE REGION. ANY RAINFALL SHOULD HELP
SUSTAIN WEDGE CONDITIONS. HOWEVER...BY LATE IN THE DAY SUNDAY AND
SUNDAY NIGHT...SURFACE FLOW WILL INCREASE FROM THE SE AND S AS 50
TO 60 KT LOW LEVEL JET APPROACHES. PW VALUES WILL RISE
DRAMATICALLY THROUGH THE PERIOD TO WELL ABOVE 1.5
INCHES...APPROACHING NEARLY 2.0 INCHES...BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THIS
IS MUCH HIGHER THAN CLIMATOLOGY FOR MID/LATE NOVEMBER. WITH SUCH
IMPRESSIVE ISENTROPIC LIFT AND MOISTURE FLUX...THE RAIN WILL BE
HEAVY AT TIMES DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS
SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT. AS THE WARM FRONT TRIES TO MOVE
NORTH/NORTHWEST ACROSS THE AREA LATE SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT...THE AIRMASS ACROSS THE AREA WILL BECOME MORE UNSTABLE.
THIS IS ESPECIALLY TRUE ACROSS THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE CWA
SOUTH OF I-20. SPC DAY TWO HAS THE SERN HALF OF THE PALMETTO STATE
IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. THIS IS WHERE THE BEST
SHEAR AND INSTABILITY WILL DEVELOP. HAVE MENTIONED ISOLATED TO
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FROM LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA DEVELOPING FIRST IN THE SERN PORTION OF
THE CWA AND THEN NORTH/NORTHWEST INTO THE REMAINDER OF THE CWA.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS FROM 1.5 TO 2 INCHES...WITH LOCALLY HEAVIER
AMOUNTS...WILL BE POSSIBLE BY SUNDAY NIGHT.

ON MONDAY...THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW IN THE PLAINS
WILL TRY TO PUSH EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA...BUT BY
AFTERNOON/EVENING BECOMES PARALLEL TO THE UPPER FLOW AND WILL
LIKELY SLOW/STALL ALONG THE COASTAL PLAIN OR NEAR THE COAST. THIS
IS WHERE MODELS BEGIN TO DISAGREE ON HOW FAR THE FRONT WILL PUSH
EASTWARD. AT THIS TIME...HAVE CONTINUE TO KEEP A CHANCE OF
SHRA/TSRA THROUGH MONDAY WITH FRONT IN THE VICINITY.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES...THEY WILL BE VERY TRICKY ON SUNDAY WITH
WEDGE AND APPROACHING WARM FRONT FROM THE SOUTH. HAVE STAYED ON
THE LOW SIDE OF GUIDANCE FOR SUNDAY WITH A TIGHT TEMPERATURE
GRADIENT FROM NW TO SE. THE HIGH FOR SUNDAY WILL MOST LIKELY OCCUR
DURING THE EVENING HOURS AS THE WARM FRONT PUSHES NWD.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE DRAMATICALLY WARMER ON MONDAY WITH BREEZY
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WITH ALL OF THE
GUIDANCE IN THE MID/UPPER 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
UNCERTAINTIES CONTINUE IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK. LATEST GFS/PREVIOUS ECMWF MODELS BEGIN TO SHIFT THE MAIN UPPER
TROUGH AXIS EASTWARD AS ENERGY DROPS INTO THE BASE OF THE TROUGH
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BY TUE/TUE NIGHT. BY TUE NIGHT...BOTH
MODELS BEGIN TO DEVELOP LOW PRESSURE IN THE GULF OF MEXICO AND
BRING A SYSTEM UP ALONG THE EAST COAST. THIS LOOKS SLIGHTLY MORE
WESTWARD WITH PRECIPITATION SHIELD AS WELL AS COOLER THAN PREVIOUS
RUNS. HAVE LOWERED HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY A COUPLE OF DEGREES FROM THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST. BY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...BOTH MODELS HAVE TROFINESS
ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING INTO THE REGION AT THE SURFACE. DRY WEATHER THANKSGIVING
DAY THROUGH SATURDAY. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN BELOW NORMAL
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
DETERIORATING CONDITIONS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD TODAY.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER THE AREA WILL WEAKEN TODAY AS LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPS IN RESPONSE TO AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE THAT
WILL CROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING. INCREASING SOUTHEASTERLY LOW
LEVEL FLOW WILL ALSO INCREASE MOISTURE AND RESULT IN THICKENING
AND LOWERING CLOUDS THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. STRONG MOISTURE
ADVECTION WILL GET LIFTED ISENTROPICALLY OVER A WEAK SURFACE WEDGE
WITH MVFR CIGS EXPECTED AFTER 09Z. WIDESPREAD RAINFALL WILL MOVE
OVER THE REGION DURING THE MORNING HOURS AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE
DAY TODAY. DETERIORATING CONDITIONS WITH CIGS DROPPING TO IFR BY
12Z AGS/DNL AND CAE/CUB/OGB BY 15Z...WITH LIFR BECOMING POSSIBLE.

THERE MAY BE A BRIEF PERIOD BETWEEN 21Z AND 00Z AFTER THE WARM
FRONTAL PASSAGE BUT BEFORE THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE WHERE CEILINGS
MAY RECOVER AND SHOWERS BECOME LIGHT. HOWEVER THE TAF SITES WILL BE
IN THE WARM SECTOR AND INSTABILITY WILL INCREASE POSSIBLY ALLOWING
FOR MORE SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS TO FORM. WINDS WILL
GENERALLY BE FROM THE EAST AND GRADUALLY VEER TO THE SOUTHEAST AND
EVENTUALLY SOUTH AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH THROUGH THE REGION.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...CEILING AND VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS
ARE LIKELY IN RAIN SHOWERS THROUGH MONDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM AFFECTS THE REGION.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR SCZ030.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$
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