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Area Forecast Discussion

317
FXUS62 KCAE 162229
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
629 PM EDT WED APR 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE INTO THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE NORTH
THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WILL CONTINUE
TO RIDGE INTO THE FORECAST TONIGHT AND THURSDAY.

CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT TO NEW ENGLAND BY TONIGHT WITH
LOW-LEVEL FLOW REMAINING FROM THE NORTHEAST. OVERNIGHT LOW
TEMPERATURES MAY DROP INTO THE LOWER 30S ACROSS THE NORTHERN
COUNTIES DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS. HOWEVER...BOTH NAM AND GFS
HINTING AT BRINGING IN SOME LOW CLOUDS AFTER 06Z ALONG WITH A 25
TO 30 KT LOW LEVEL JET. IF THIS OCCURS...THIS COULD HELP KEEP
OVERNIGHT MINIMUM TEMPS ABOVE FREEZING. HOWEVER...WILL CONTINUE
WITH A FREEZE WARNING ACROSS THE NORTHWEST/NORTHERN MIDLANDS FOR
THE LATE TONIGHT/EARLY THURSDAY MORNING PERIOD.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
THE SURFACE RIDGING EXTENDING INTO THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE
NORTH WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. THE NAM
ALSO INDICATES THERE MAY BE CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS THURSDAY AND
THURSDAY NIGHT ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT. THIS MOISTURE
SHOULD REMAIN TOO SHALLOW FOR RAIN. HIGHS TEMPERATURES THURSDAY
MAINLY IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 60S. THURSDAY NIGHT SHOULD NOT BE A
COLD BECAUSE OF AIR MASS MODIFICATION AND CLOUDINESS. CONFIDENCE
STILL LOW ON SYSTEM DEVELOPING ALONG THE NE GULF COAST/SOUTHEAST
COAST FOR FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT. ECMWF/GFS...MORE AGGRESSIVE AND
FARTHER NORTH/WEST THAN NAM WITH THIS FEATURE. FORECAST CONTINUES
TO INDICATE SLIGHT CHANCE/LOW CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE
SOUTH/SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE CWA LATE FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
CONFIDENCE IS LOW DURING THE MEDIUM-RANGE PERIOD. BOTH THE
ECMWF/GFS BOTH SHOW CUTOFF LOWS ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST...BUT
DIFFER ON PLACEMENT. THE NAM IS WEAKER AND FARTHER SOUTH WITH THIS
SYSTEM. AT THIS TIME...HAVE KEPT ANY MENTION OF PRECIPITATION
SOUTH/EAST OF THE CWA FOR THE WEEKEND. THE MODELS ALSO CONTINUE TO
HAVE TROUBLING WITH NEXT SYSTEM TO AFFECT THE AREA BY MONDAY NIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.
WITH SUCH UNCERTAINTY...STAY CLOSE FOR ANY CHANGES OR UPDATES FOR
THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND FORECAST. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO REBOUND AFTER
THE CHILLY WEATHER THAT ENDS THE WEEK AND EXPECT THEM TO RISE
CLOSER TO NORMAL THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE 24 HOUR TAF FORECAST
PERIOD. SKIES WILL CLEAR INTO THE EVENING HOURS. THERE IS A
POSSIBILITY OF SOME LOW CLOUDS MOVING OVER THE AREA MAINLY AFTER
AROUND 08Z THURSDAY MORNING DUE TO WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT AS THE
SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS OFF THE COAST. SURFACE WINDS WILL STAY UP AROUND
5 TO 10 KTS DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS THURSDAY PREVENTING ANY
FOG ISSUES. NE-E WINDS WILL CONTINUE ON THURSDAY.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...FREEZE WARNING FROM 4 AM TO 9 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR SCZ015-016-
     020-021.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$
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