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Area Forecast Discussion

447
FXUS62 KCAE 261905
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
205 PM EST THU FEB 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST WILL CONTINUE MOVING OUT
TO SEA OVERNIGHT. CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE
AREA FOR THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL FOR
THE WEEKEND...THEN WARM NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
DRY FORECAST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. LOW PRESSURE OFF THE
MID-ATLANTIC COAST WILL CONTINUE MOVING NORTHEAST AND OUT TO SEA.
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL
SLIP SOUTHEAST INTO THE CENTRAL MS RIVER VALLEY OVERNIGHT.
ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE (BELOW 5000 FEET) SHOWING INDICATIONS
OF THINNING ACROSS THE UPSTATE AND CSRA. STILL EXPECT CLOUDY TO
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES OVERNIGHT AS WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BECOME
LIGHT WITH NO REAL DOWNSLOPE. MODELS ALSO INDICATE A WEAKENING
SHORT WAVE CROSSING THE REGION OVERNIGHT IN BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW
ALOFT. IF WE SEE ANY CLEARING TONIGHT...COULD SEE FOG DEVELOP.

KEPT OVERNIGHT LOWS NEAR GUIDANCE CONSENSUS...IN THE UPPER 20S
NORTH TO MID 30S CSRA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
WEATHER PATTERN WILL REMAIN DRY THROUGH SATURDAY. BROAD CYCLONIC
FLOW ALOFT BECOMES NEARLY ZONAL OVER THE WEEKEND. LARGE AREA OF
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL MS RIVER VALLEY
FRIDAY WILL BUILD EAST ACROSS THE OH RIVER VALLEY TO THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST BY SATURDAY EVENING. ALL MODELS INDICATE WEAK
ISENTROPIC LIFT BEGINNING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND WESTERN COUNTIES
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THE NAM MODEL SHOWS STRONGER ISENTROPIC LIFT...AND
CHANCE OF PRECIP SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. IF THE
NAM IS CORRECT...FREEZING RAIN IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE PIEDMONT AND
NORTHERN MIDLANDS SATURDAY NIGHT. SINCE THE NAM IS AN OUTLIER AND
CONFIDENCE IS LOW...WILL KEEP SATURDAY NIGHT DRY.

KEPT DAYTIME HIGHS ON THE COOL SIDE OF GUIDANCE. HIGHS FRIDAY FROM
THE LOWER 40S NORTH MIDLANDS TO THE LOWER 50S CSRA. SATURDAY SHOULD
BE A LITTLE COOLER WITH HIGH PRESSURE BEGINNING TO WEDGE IN FROM THE
NORTH...SO HIGHS RANGING THROUGH THE 40S. WENT NEAR CONSENSUS FOR
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID/UPPER 20S NORTH MIDLANDS...AND LOW/MID
30S CENTRAL MIDLANDS TO CSRA.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MODELS STILL SHOWING AN AREA OF COLD CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE SETTING
UP OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION EXTENDING SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE
CAROLINAS SUNDAY. SURFACE TROUGH ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST. MODELS
INDICATE MOISTURE FLUX/ISENTROPIC LIFT INCREASING DURING ON
SUNDAY. WEDGE CONDITIONS MAY CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY AND INCREASE
CHANCE RAIN AS MOISTURE CONTINUES TO SPREAD INTO THE REGION.
INCREASING SOUTH FLOW TUESDAY THROUGH MIDWEEK AHEAD OF APPROACHING
STRONG COLD FRONT...BREEZY OR WINDY CONDITIONS BECOME POSSIBLE.
THREAT OF SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
AHEAD OF FRONT WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY...BUT MODELS SHOW TIMING ISSUES BY
END OF PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MVFR CIGS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. LIGHT NORTH WINDS BECOMING GENERALLY
CALM AFTER SUNSET. LATE NIGHT FOG POSSIBLE...BUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW
TO INCLUDE IN TAFS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...CHANCE FOR FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS SATURDAY
NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY WEDGE CONDITIONS DEVELOP. CONFIDENCE IS NOT
HIGH AT THIS POINT.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$






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