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Area Forecast Discussion

571
FXUS62 KCAE 040631
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
231 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARIES...AND PLENTIFUL
ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE...PROVIDING A GOOD
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AND NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPPER LEVEL 850MB JET AND SERIES OF H5 SHORTWAVES WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. PLENTY OF MOISTURE IN PLACE FOR
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP. HOWEVER...PW
VALUES ARE AROUND 1.5 SO RAINFALL AMOUNTS SHOULD BE LESS THAN
WITH YESTERDAYS STORMS. ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE WITH
H85 WINDS MIXING DOWN. HAVE CUT AFTERNOON MAX TEMPS TO UPPER 80S
EXPECTING EXTENSIVE CLOUDINESS FROM REMNANTS OF RW/TRW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE E CONUS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...WITH A SERIES OF EMBEDDED SHORT WAVES PROGGED TO MOVE
THROUGH THE REGION. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO OUR NORTH AND WEST
SHOULD SLOWLY SLIP SOUTHWARD AND INTO AT LEAST THE NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE CWA THIS WEEKEND. MODELS MAINTAIN PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES 1.6 TO 1.8 INCHES THROUGHOUT THE WEEKEND. CHANCE TO
GOOD CHANCE POPS STILL APPEARS TO BE REASONABLE. MOST CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY WOULD APPEAR TO BE DIURNALLY FAVORED...THOUGH TIMING OF
SHORT WAVES AND PRESENCE OF SURFACE BOUNDARIES COULD PROVIDE AT
LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE AT OTHER TIMES.

BY SUNDAY NIGHT AND INTO MONDAY THE MODELS BEGIN TO SHIFT THE
MAIN UPPER FLOW TO OUR NORTH WITH WEAK SOUTHERN STREAM UPPER
TROUGHINESS REMAINING OVER THE SE CONUS/MID ATLANTIC. BOTH THE GFS
AND ECMWF SHOW AN UPPER LOW CUTTING OFF OVER THE CENTRAL APPS/MID
ATLANTIC SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. COMBINE THIS WILL A WEAK
FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT COULD SLIP SOUTH INTO OUR FORECAST AREA
DURING THIS PERIOD...CHANCE TO GOOD CHANCE POPS CONTINUE TO
APPEAR REASONABLE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH THE UPPER
FLOW PATTERN THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE LONGER TERM. MAIN UPPER
TROUGH APPEARS TO WEAKEN AND PUSH NORTHEASTWARD...WHICH WILL BRING
MORE OF A LESS AMPLIFIED AND MORE ZONAL FLOW TO THE SOUTHEAST.
AT THE SURFACE THE MAIN BOUNDARY THAT HAS BEEN ACROSS THE AREA
WILL BECOME MORE DIFFUSE. THE UPPER PATTERN HINTS AT ANOTHER
TROUGH DEVELOPING TOWARDS THURSDAY...WHICH WOULD LEAD TO THE
APPROACH OF ANOTHER SURFACE FRONT BY THE END OF THE WEEK. GENERALLY
ACCEPTED A BLEND OF HPC AND MOS GUIDANCE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD THOUGH SOME
RESTRICTIONS MAY BE POSSIBLE IN AND AROUND CONVECTION.

UPPER LEVEL TROF TO REMAIN OVER THE AREA INTO THE EARLY PART OF
THE WEEK WITH A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES MOVING THROUGH
TODAY THROUGH MONDAY TRIGGERING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. WINDS WILL PICK UP AGAIN MID MORNING FROM THE WEST
15 TO 20 KNOTS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...UPPER LEVEL TROF TO LIFT NORTH BY
MIDWEEK DECREASING THE CHANCE OF AFTERNOON/EVENING CONVECTION.
EXPECT RESTRICTIONS AT TIMES IN ANY CONVECTIVE CELLS AND POSSIBLE
EARLY MORNING STRATUS OR FOG.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

&&

$$
99



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