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Area Forecast Discussion

030
FXUS62 KCAE 230612
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
212 AM EDT WED JUL 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK STATIONARY FRONT AND COASTAL TROUGH WILL PROVIDE A FOCUS
FOR SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. AN UPPER
TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE AREA AND BRING A COLD FRONT INTO THE
REGION LATER THIS WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
WV LOOP SHOWS CLOSED LOW ALONG THE CENTRAL GULF COAST GRADUALLY
BEGINNING TO RETROGRADE AND THIS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY. HAVE CONTINUED WITH HIGH CHANCE/LOW LIKELY POPS FOR THE
AFTERNOON. MUGGY TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT WITH READINGS IN THE
MIDDLE 70S. SLIGHTLY WARMER ON WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 90S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW ALONG THE GULF COAST WILL SLOWLY FILL THROUGH
THURSDAY. HOWEVER...SHORT WAVE ENERGY MOVING SOUTHEAST FROM GREAT
LAKES REGION WILL SHARPEN THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN STATES
AND DRIVE A COLD FRONT TOWARD THE REGION THURSDAY.

PRECIPITABLE WATER REMAINS HIGH THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH VALUES
AROUND 2.0 INCHES AT TIMES. MODEL SPECTRUM AND GUIDANCE SHOWING
QUITE A RANGE WITH POPS WEDNESDAY ALTHOUGH LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTED
LOWER POPS AS MOISTURE DECREASES AND SURFACE TROUGH WEAKENS. WE KEPT
LOW CHANCE POPS FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THERE SHOULD BE A BETTER
CHANCE FOR CONVECTION THURSDAY GIVEN SHORT WAVE ENERGY CROSSING THE
AREA AND MODERATE INSTABILITY ALONG WITH DRY AIR ALOFT. WEAK
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE MAY LIMIT CONVECTIVE COVERAGE. KEPT CHANCE POPS
THURSDAY WITH HIGHEST POPS ACROSS THE NORTH MIDLANDS.

SHOULD SEE HIGHS IN THE LOWER 90S WEDNESDAY. THURSDAY SHOULD BE A
LITTLE WARMER WITH SOUTHWEST LOW LEVEL FLOW AND WEAK WARM ADVECTION
AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND TOWARD AN AMPLIFICATION OF THE LONG WAVE
PATTERN WITH A RIDGE IN THE WEST AND A TROUGH IN THE EAST.

THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS SHOW AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS
WITH A RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN STATES THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
NIGHT. THE COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION BECOMES DIFFUSE THOUGH
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY LINGERS.

BY SATURDAY THE RIDGE IN THE WEST BEGINS TO BUILD ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN STATES. THE UPPER PATTERN ONCE AGAIN AMPLIFIES EARLY NEXT
WEEK WITH A RIDGE IN THE WEST AND A DEEP TROUGH. THIS SHOULD PUSH
ANOTHER COLD FRONT TOWARD THE REGION ON TUESDAY.
WE KEPT A CHANCE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS FRIDAY DIMINISHING TO ISOLATED FOR
SATURDAY. CHANCE POPS WERE RETAINED FOR SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE NEAR NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW/MID 90S AND
LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS TO DOMINATE THE PERIOD WITH MVFR/IFR DURING THE
EARLY MORNING AND SUNRISE HOURS.

SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING SCATTERED CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION WITH
SURFACE OBS INDICATING MUCH OF THE CLOUDINESS IN THE MID AND UPPER
LEVELS. MAIN CONCERN THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE POTENTIAL FOR FOG
AND STRATUS THROUGH DAYBREAK AS MOISTURE BECOMES TRAPPED UNDER THE
INVERSION. HAVE REMAINED WITH MVFR CONDITIONS AT ALL SITES BETWEEN
08 AND 13Z WITH POTENTIAL FOR IFR AROUND SUNRISE. CONDITIONS WILL
RETURN TO VFR AROUND 13Z WITH DRIER AIR MOVING INTO THE REGION
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING KEEPING CONDITIONS VFR THROUGH THE
END OF THE PERIOD. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF CONVECTION INTO
EARLY AFTERNOON...HOWEVER COVERAGE WILL BE LIMITED SO HAVE NOT
INCLUDED IN TAFS. WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE SOUTHWESTERLY
AT 6 KNOTS OR LESS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK....CIG/VSBY RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$







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