« Back
NWS Peachtree City, Ga » Text Product » CAE Area Forecast Discussion


Printer-friendly Version     Surrounding:  BMX  MRX  FFC  CAE  TAE  
Current Version              Previous Versions:   1  2  3  4  5  6  7  8  9  

Area Forecast Discussion

596
FXUS62 KCAE 121119
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
619 AM EST FRI FEB 12 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST THIS MORNING WILL SHIFT
FARTHER NORTHEAST OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. MUCH OF THE
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW WILL BE NORTHEAST OF THE FORECAST
AREA. A COLD PRESSURE RIDGE MOVING INTO THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE
WEST WILL EXTEND THROUGH THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. THE
NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL AFFECT THE REGION MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING INTO THE AREA WAS HELPING
SUPPORT CYCLOGENESIS NEAR THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST EARLY THIS
MORNING. SATELLITE TRENDS SHOWED MUCH OF THE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
WAS OFF THE NORTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA COAST. THE PATTERN WAS
PROGRESSIVE AND THERE SHOULD NOT BE ENOUGH TIME FOR DEEP MOISTURE
TO DEVELOP IN THE FORECAST AREA. RADAR TRENDS AND THE HRRR
SUGGESTED SCATTERED AREAS OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION AFFECTING MAINLY
THE NORTH PART OF THE FORECAST AREA LATE THIS MORNING AND EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON. MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE A MIX OF
RAIN...SLEET AND SNOW MAY OCCUR. THE NAM AND SREF MEAN DISPLAYED
QPF LESS THAN 0.01 OF AN INCH. THE GFS AND ECMWF HAD 0.02 OF AN
INCH IN THE NORTHEAST SECTION. IF WINTRY PRECIPITATION DOES
DEVELOP AMOUNTS SHOULD BE LIGHT BECAUSE OF THE FAST SYSTEM
MOVEMENT...LIMITED MOISTURE AND MARGINAL TEMPERATURES. NO
SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. MOISTURE WILL
DIMINISH FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON AS THE SYSTEM
LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD. WE LEANED TOWARD THE LOWER TEMPERATURE
GUIDANCE TODAY BECAUSE OF CLOUDINESS.

EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE APPROACHING
FROM THE WEST. THE TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE WAS CONSISTENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE COLD AND DRY PRESSURE RIDGE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WILL
EXTEND THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. WE
USED THE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS FOR THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST. SATURDAY
NIGHT WILL BE THE COLDEST NIGHT DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTING FARTHER OFF THE
COAST FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH A FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE
FORECAST AREA. COLD AIR MAY LINGER WITH A WEDGE PATTERN MONDAY.
MODEL SOUNDINGS AND THE PATTERN INDICATE POSSIBLE FREEZING RAIN
IN THE NORTHWEST SECTION EARLY. STRONG WARM ADVECTION SHOULD
RESULT IN ALL-LIQUID PRECIPITATION BY MONDAY NIGHT. THE MODELS
INDICATE A STRONG H85 SOUTHERLY JET MONDAY NIGHT AND THE MOST
SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL MAY OCCUR DURING THAT TIME. IT WILL LIKELY BE
DRY BEHIND THIS SYSTEM FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THE
GFS...ECMWF...AND EKD MOS HAVE POPS 50 TO 90 PERCENT MONDAY AND
TUESDAY WITH THE HIGHEST VALUES MONDAY NIGHT. THE MOS HAVE POPS
LESS THAN 20 PERCENT WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...

WINDS BECOMING NORTHEAST AS A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS OFF THE SC/GA
COAST ALONG A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA.
MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE LATER THIS MORNING CONTINUING INTO THE EARLY
AFTERNOON.

CANNOT RULE OUT LIGHT RAIN THIS MORNING AT TAF SITES...
...BUT BULK OF PRECIP SHOULD BE LIGHT AND NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO
MENTION AT ANY OF THE TAF SITES. SHOULD SEE A RETURN TO VFR
CONDITIONS BY EARLY THIS EVENING WITH CLEARING SKIES AS THE AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES FARTHER OUT TO SEA AND DOWNSLOPE NORTHWEST
WINDS DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION. SFC WINDS WILL INITIALLY BE FROM
THE NORTHEAST BUT WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST/NORTHWEST BY THIS EVENING
AS THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES FURTHER AWAY.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...CIG/VSBY RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE MONDAY
INTO TUESDAY MORNING AS A SOUTHERN STREAM LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
CROSSES THE REGION.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.