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Area Forecast Discussion

919
FXUS62 KCAE 290516
AFDCAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
116 AM EDT SUN MAY 29 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Tropical storm bonnie off the south coast of South Carolina will
move slowly northwest toward the coast overnight. The storm is
expected to make landfall Sunday morning. The storm is expected to
move very slowly northeast along the coast through Monday night. Chances
of rain will increase over the area through Sunday the lower for
Monday and Tuesday. Potential exists for locally heavy rainfall
through Monday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
Tropical storm Bonnie remains well offshore with satellite
imagery showing a large area of convection on the northwest side.
Convection has increased near the center of the storm. The storm
may strengthen slightly tonight as the storm moves over the Gulf
Stream.

The heaviest rain this afternoon has remained in the low country
although radar estimates up to 0.75 inch in the far eastern
Midlands. Radar continues to show mainly light rain spreading
west/northwest into the Eastern Midlands...with a few areas of
enhanced convection along the leading edge/outflow...where gusty
winds have been reported to near 30 knots.

Latest High resolution models suggest a lull in the showers across
the Midlands this evening. However expect moisture flux and
isentropic lift may increase late tonight...especially by 09z so
will continue forecast of increasing pops overnight from east to
west. Highest pops in the East Midlands. Heavy rain possible but
more likely after 12z Sunday. With limited instability
thunderstorms will remain isolated. Gusty winds possible in
convection...stronger gradient winds possible late tonight with
approaching storm. Overnight lows in the middle to upper 60s on
track.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
TD2 should be moving onshore south of Charleston during the
morning on Sunday before slowing the system down significantly through
the late morning just after landfall. The forecast track then begins
to push it more north/northeast parallel to the coast into sunday
night. The models all bring plenty of moisture into the region by
Sunday morning, especially in areas just to the north of the
track. This will bring plenty of showers and isolated storms to
the eastern half of the cwa. Expect to see some wraparound
moisture to possibly making it back towards the csra through the
day also. Storm total QPF amounts of between 1 to 3 inches with
isolated higher amounts will be possible across the eastern
Midlands, Pee Dee, and Catawba areas. Across the Western Midlands
and much of the CSRA, expecting up to an inch, with isolated
higher amounts. Biggest issues should revolve around urban and
small stream flooding potential more than anything. As the low
pushes northeast of the cwa Sunday night into Monday, the rain
chances will decrease. However still expect to see at least a
slight chance of a shower through the remainder of the period.

Temperatures on Sunday will be tricky. With plenty of cloud cover
and rainfall, temperatures may struggle to get out of the 70s for
many areas. Areas outside of the rainfall may be able to actually
climb into the 80s. Readings return a little closer to normal for
Sunday night through Monday night.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Models have come into a little better agreement on a deep trough
moving from west to east toward the end of next week into next weekend.
Will continue with the diurnal trend of isolated to scattered
afternoon shower and thunderstorm through much of next week, with
increasing rain chances late in the period just ahead of the next
cold front. Have stayed close to current forecast which is for
temperatures to remain generally at or slightly above normal
through the period.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Deteriorating conditions expected.

Tropical Storm Bonnie, centered off the coast of SC, will move
very slowly toward the coast. Associated rain area, and lowering
cigs/vsbys, expected to shift north into our forecast area (FA).
Will concentrate on the near term, following latest radar loops
and high resolution model guidance. In the near term, current
thinking is that conditions will deteriorate to MVFR at our
terminals, with IFR possible at OGB/AGS/DNL late tonight and
Sunday morning. Conditions may be slow to change as the system
will be moving only very slowly.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Rain and associated restrictions
probable Sunday night and Monday.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
SC...None.

&&

$$



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