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Area Forecast Discussion

619
FXUS62 KCAE 281716
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
116 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH OUR REGION LATE TODAY. COOLER AND
DRIER AIR WILL ENTER OUR REGION BEHIND THE FRONT FOR TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. MOISTURE WILL RETURN TO THE REGION LATE IN THE WEEK AND
INTO THE WEEKEND...ALLOWING FOR A CHANCE OF SHOWERS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
17Z RADAR QUIET WITH SURFACE COLD FRONT NOW IN UPSTATE SC.  HRRR/CAE
LOCAL WRF MODELS SHOW CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY BEGINNING BY MID AFTERNOON
IN THE MIDLANDS...SPREADING EAST TOWARD THE COAST AND INTENSIFYING
AS THE AFTERNOON WEARS ON.  MAV/MET GUIDANCE GIVES SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS THIS AFTERNOON...LITTLE HIGHER SOUTHEASTERN THIRD. ATMOSPHERE
WILL BE MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES...
INVERTED V SOUNDINGS AND 30+ KNOT 850 WIND.  SPC INCLUDES EASTERN
CLARENDON...ORANGEBURG AND BAMBERG COUNTIES IN THE SLIGHT RISK
AREAS...THIS HAS SHIFTED A LITTLE FARTHER EAST AND SOUTH THAN
PREVIOUS OUTLOOK. DAMAGING WIND AND LARGE HAIL POSSIBLE WITH
CONVECTION FAR EAST...GENERAL THUNDER ELSEWHERE. PRECIP SHUTS OFF
EARLY THIS EVENING WITH THE FRONT MOVING OFF SHORE AROUND 06Z.

HIGH TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE MIDDLE 90S...LOWS OVERNIGHT
IN THE LOWER 70S...MODEL BLEND REASONABLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
FAIR WEATHER. FRONT WILL PUSH OFFSHORE TUESDAY. AN UNSEASONABLY DEEP
UPPER TROUGH OVER THE E CONUS WILL DIRECT COOLER AND DRIER AIR INTO
OUR REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE CENTER
BUILDING INTO THE MID ATLANTIC.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS WE ENTER INTO THE LONGER TERM PERIOD...THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH
AXIS WILL RETROGRADE WESTWARD...WHICH WILL PUT THE AREA UNDER A
MORE SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER FLOW...ALONG WITH ALLOWING A WEAK ONSHORE
FLOW TO DEVELOP OFF THE ATLANTIC. THIS WILL BRING MOISTURE BACK
INTO THE REGION...ALLOWING FOR AN INCREASE IN RAIN CHANCES ONCE
AGAIN AS WE ENTER INTO THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW
NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MAINLY VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. BEST CHANCE FOR CONVECTION WILL BE
MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH EVENING 18Z-24Z AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE
TAF SITES.

AN UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE COUPLED WITH FRONTAL LIFTING THIS AFTERNOON
WILL CAUSE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT AFTER 18Z. THIS
CONVECTION SHOULD INTENSIFY EAST OF CAE/CUB...AND MAYBE JUST EAST OF
DNL/AGS. HAVE INDICATED VCTS FOR OGB 21Z-24Z GIVEN UNCERTAINTY OF
TIMING AND COVERAGE. WESTERLY WINDS GENERALLY 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH
GUSTS 20 TO 25 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE BECOMING NORTHWESTERLY 5
TO 10 KNOTS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT THIS EVENING.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
FRIDAY AS MOISTURE RETURNS DUE TO AN EASTERLY FLOW OFF THE ATLANTIC.

&&

.CLIMATE...
A COMBINATION OF WIND AND HIGH CLOUDINESS PROVIDED WARM MIN TEMPS
THIS MORNING...82 AT CAE AND 80 AT AGS.

RECORD HIGH MIN TEMPERATURE FOR JUL 28TH AT COLUMBIA IS 78
DEGREES LAST SET IN 1936.

AT AUGUSTA...THE RECORD HIGH MIN TEMPERATURE FOR JULY 28TH IS
82...ALSO SET IN 1936.

LOW TEMPERATURES FOR THE CALENDAR DAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE REACHED AT
MIDNIGHT EST..OR 100 AM EDT...TONIGHT AS COOLER AIR ENTERS THE
REGION BEHIND A COLD FRONT. SO...SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHETHER
THE DAILY HIGH MIN TEMP RECORD FOR THE CALENDAR DAY OF JULY 28TH WILL
BE TIED OR BROKEN AT CAE. CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT TEMPS WILL
FALL INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S AT CAE BY 100 AM EDT.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$






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