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Area Forecast Discussion

391
FXUS62 KCAE 251856
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
156 PM EST SUN JAN 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THE NEXT FAST MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CROSS THE REGION
TONIGHT AND MONDAY WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. DRY HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES EXPECTED
TO BE BELOW NORMAL THROUGH MID-WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A LOW PRESSURE CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE
REGION TONIGHT. AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM...THE AIR MASS IS DRY WITH
SURFACE RIDGE IN THE GULF OF MEXICO EXTENDING NORTHEAST ACROSS
THE CAROLINAS. TEMPERATURES ARE ON TRACK THIS AFTERNOON WITH HIGHS
STILL EXPECTED IN THE UPPER 50S TO NEAR 60. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
MOVE OFFSHORE TONIGHT AS CLIPPER APPROACHES THE NORTH CAROLINA
MOUNTAINS. INCREASING CLOUDS TONIGHT WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE SHOWERS
LATE TONIGHT MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN MIDLANDS AHEAD OF COLD
FRONT. INCREASING CLOUDS AND LIGHT WINDS WILL PROMOTE OVERNIGHT LOWS
SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT... IN THE UPPER 30S NORTH
TO NEAR 40 SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE LOW WILL SWING TO COASTAL NORTH CAROLINA MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
AWAY FROM THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT. THE COLD FRONT AND AMPLIFIED
UPPER TROUGH/SHORT WAVES WILL CROSS THE REGION MONDAY. STEEPENING
LOW TO MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL RESULT IN WEAK ELEVATED
INSTABILITY. CONSIDERABLE CLOUDS MONDAY WITH COLD ADVECTION. LIFT
APPEARS WEAK AND MAINLY NORTH MIDLANDS/PEE DEE THROUGH AFTERNOON.
KEPT LOW CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS MONDAY. EXPECT RAINFALL AMOUNTS
TO BE LIGHT. CUT MAX TEMPERATURES MONDAY SLIGHTLY FROM PREVIOUS
FORECAST GIVEN COLD ADVECTION/UPPER TROUGH. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT IN
THE LOWER TO MID 30S WITH DECREASING CLOUDS AND DIMINISHING WINDS.
UPPER TROUGH ALONG THE EAST COAST TUESDAY. A FEW CLOUDS ASSOCIATED
WITH SHORT WAVES ROTATING AROUND BASE OF UPPER TROUGH MAINLY NORTH
MIDLANDS/PEE DEE...BUT MOISTURE OVERALL APPEARS LIMITED.
TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL TUESDAY DUE TO COLD ADVECTION.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MODELS CONTINUE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THURSDAY WITH
INCREASING DIFFERENCES FOR FRIDAY. PATTERN WILL REMAIN ACTIVE
THROUGH THE LONG TERM WITH LOW PRESSURE MOVING AWAY FROM THE
REGION TUESDAY AND HIGH PRESSURE ALONG WITH DRIER AIR BUILDING IN
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY.

MODEL DIFFERENCES BEGIN THURSDAY AS THE GFS TRACKS LOW PRESSURE
THROUGH THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES AND THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY
THURSDAY NIGHT WHILE THE ECMWF KEEPS THE LOW IN THE NORTHERN GREAT
LAKES. BOTH MODELS BRING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA
THURSDAY NIGHT WITH THE GFS BEING STRONGER WITH THE FRONT DUE TO
THE LOW CENTER MUCH FURTHER SOUTH THAN THE ECMWF. ON FRIDAY THE
ECMWF BRINGS MOISTURE NORTHWARD INTO THE FORECAST AREA ALONG THE
STALLED FRONTAL REMAINS WITH THE GFS PUSHES THE COLD FRONT
OFFSHORE ALLOWING DRIER AIR INTO THE AREA. WITH THE MODEL
DIFFERENCE FOR THURSDAY NIGHT ONWARD CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW.
MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF ON PRECIPITATION THURSDAY NIGHT SO CUT POPS
FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST. GFS ENSEMBLE POPS THROUGH PERIOD LOW.
TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL END OF PERIOD AS UPPER FLOW BECOMES MORE
ZONAL.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE MOVING SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE NC/VA
BORDER TONIGHT. AS THE LOW APPROACHES THIS EVENING...MID AND UPPER
CLOUDS WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION AND WILL THEN LOWER
TOWARDS DAYBREAK MONDAY. SOME MODELS INDICATE POTENTIAL FOR MVFR
CIGS FOR A BRIEF PERIOD NEAR 12Z. HAVE GONE LOW END VFR FOR NOW
BUT WILL CONTINUE TO UPDATE AS CONFIDENCE IMPROVES. MODELS ALSO SHOW
POTENTIAL FOR FOG TOWARD DAYBREAK ALTHOUGH BELIEVE LIGHT WINDS
AND INCREASING CLOUDS MAY HINDER DEVELOPMENT SO HAVE NOT INCLUDED
MENTION AT THIS TIME. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN AT THE TAF SITES
ACCOMPANIES THIS SYSTEM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON.
CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW IN REGARD TO TIMING AND COVERAGE SO HAVE
NOT INCLUDED MENTION. WINDS WILL BE SOUTHERLY FOR THE REST OF THE
AFTERNOON AND WILL VEER TO SOUTHWESTERLY OVERNIGHT AT AROUND 5 TO 7
KNOTS. WESTERLY WINDS AFTER 12Z MONDAY MORNING WILL INCREASE TO
AROUND 12 KNOTS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...BREEZY CONDITIONS POSSIBLE TUESDAY.
OTHERWISE...NO AVIATION RESTRICTIONS ANTICIPATED.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$






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