« Back
NWS Peachtree City, Ga » Text Product » CAE Area Forecast Discussion


Printer-friendly Version     Surrounding:  BMX  MRX  FFC  CAE  TAE  
Current Version              Previous Versions:   1  2  3  4  5  6  7  8  9  

Area Forecast Discussion

111
FXUS62 KCAE 200541
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
141 AM EDT MON APR 20 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
UNSETTLED AND WET WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE INTO MONDAY. A
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT...SCATTERED
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE AHEAD OF THE FRONT. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY BRINGING
FAIR AND DRIER CONDITIONS THROUGH MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
CLOUDS HAVE BEGUN TO DISSIPATE WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS IN THE
UPSTATE AND OFFSHORE. TEMPERATURES HAVE GENERALLY REMAINED RAIN
COOLED FROM EARLIER TODAY WITH LITTLE VARIATION EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT. WITH THE CLOUD COVER EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AND
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS CONTINUING LOW TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE
IN THE MIDDLE 60S.

NUMEROUS REPORTS OF DAMAGE FROM THE STORMS HAVE BEEN RELAYED TO
THE OFFICE AND STORM SURVEYS WILL NEED TO BE CONDUCTED. DISCUSSION
WITH COUNTY OFFICIALS INDICATES LIMITED MOBILITY ON SOME ROADS SO
DAMAGE ASSESSMENTS ARE PLANNED FOR MONDAY MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS MOVING SLOWLY
EAST. DEEP SURFACE LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION WITH COLD FRONT
EXTENDING SOUTH THROUGH WEST TENNESSEE TO GULF COAST EARLY MONDAY.
MODELS SUGGEST LITTLE IN THE WAY OF CONVECTION DURING THE
MORNING...BUT CONSIDERABLE LOW CLOUDS EXPECTED AROUND DAYBREAK.
THE STRONG COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION LATE MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. 12Z NAM MODEL APPEARS A LITTLE SLOWER THAN
GFS/ECMWF WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE IN THE EVENING. SREF MORE IN
LINE WITH GFS WITH FRONT MOVING THROUGH MIDLANDS AROUND 03Z. UPPER
LEVEL DYNAMICS APPEAR STRONG WITH SOUTH CAROLINA/GEORGIA IN LEFT
EXIT REGION 250 MB JET ACROSS GULF COAST AND ENTRANCE REGION JET
OVER THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC STATES. RESULTING DEEP/STRONG LIFT
EXPECTED ACROSS REGION ESPECIALLY EASTERN SOUTH CAROLINA.

WITH SOME SUNSHINE AND WARM ADVECTION EXPECTED IN ADVANCE OF THE
COLD FRONT DURING THE DAY...MODELS STILL INDICATE MODERATE TO
STRONG INSTABILITY DEVELOPING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS
TEMPERATURES RISE INTO THE LOW 80S. LIMITING FACTOR...APPEARS TO
BE MOISTURE WITH K-INDEX POSSIBLY FALLING AS FRONT APPROACHES.
MIXING OF DRY AIR ALOFT APPEARS LIKELY. SURFACE-BASED CAPE ABOVE
3000 J/KG AND LIFTED INDEX POSSIBLY -10C. DEEP DRY AIR ALOFT AND
LOW WET-BULB ZERO HEIGHTS SUGGEST POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND
LARGE HAIL. HODOGRAPHS UNI-DIRECTIONAL EARLY POSSIBLY BECOMING
MORE FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS AS BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS BACK
SOMEWHAT. BUT MAIN THREAT DAMAGING WINDS WITH STRONG 0-6KM
SHEAR AND MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY.

SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. MODEL
PRECIP COVERAGE EXPECTED TO BE ONLY SCATTERED THOUGH DUE TO
LIMITED MOISTURE. THERE IS SOME INDICATION THERE MAY BE
CONVECTION WELL AHEAD OF THE FRONT...THEN A WEAKER CONVECTIVE LINE
WITH THE FRONT AROUND 02Z-04Z. POPS DECREASE RAPIDLY BEHIND FRONT
AFTER MIDNIGHT. GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES MEAN APPEARS ON TRACK.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION TUESDAY AND AIR MASS APPEARS
DRY WITH DEW POINTS IN THE 40S. COOL NIGHT POSSIBLE TUESDAY
NIGHT...MODEL CONSENSUS AROUND 50...UPPER 40S OUTLYING AREAS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SURFACE RIDGE MOVING OFF THE COAST BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON MAY SEE
AN INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY WITH LIMITED MOISTURE. LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM DEVELOPING IN THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY EARLY
SATURDAY WILL SPREAD MOISTURE INTO THE SOUTHEAST AND INCREASING
CHANCE RAIN. ALTHOUGH MODEL ENSEMBLES SUGGEST LOW POPS THROUGH
PERIOD...LATEST GFS SUGGEST HIGH CHANCE RAIN SATURDAY...THEN DRY
BY SUNDAY WITH MOISTURE SOUTH OF THE AREA. TEMPERATURES NEAR
NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SATELLITE AND OBS INDICATE IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA
TONIGHT. THERE AREA A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS MOVING IN FROM GA...BUT
MAIN AREA OF RAIN WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION LATER TODAY/THIS
AFTERNOON. CIGS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY DECLINE TONIGHT GIVEN
PLENTIFUL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. IFR CIGS EXPECTED. NEXT FOCUS WILL BE
ON FRONT COMING THROUGH LATE MONDAY...AHEAD OF WHICH WILL BE
INCREASING SW SURFACE WINDS AND SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS...POSSIBLY SEVERE. HAVE NOTICED MENTION SHRA/TSRA IN
TAFS AT THIS TIME...WILL TRY TO GET A BETTER JOB ON TIMING IN LATER
UPDATES.

.EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...
NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS TO AVIATION EXPECTED TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
A FRONT MAY PROVIDE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS
WED NT INTO THU.

.HYDROLOGY...
OVER THE PAST 72 HOURS RAINFALL AMOUNTS HAVE BEEN HEAVIEST ACROSS
THE UPSTATE AND THE AUGUSTA METRO AREA. HOWEVER...RAINFALL TOTALS
HAVE GENERALLY BEEN UNDER ONE INCH. FORECASTED RAINFALL TOTALS FOR
THE NEXT 48 HOURS INDICATE UP TO 2 TO 3 INCHES OF RAINFALL ACROSS
THE UPSTATE/FOOTHILLS OF NC AND HEADWATERS OF THE AREA RIVERS.
ACROSS THE MIDLANDS/CSRA...TOTALS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE.
THE SERFC FORECAST AND MMEFS RIVER FORECAST ENSEMBLES INDICATE THE
POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING ALONG THE CONGAREE RIVER AT CAROLINA
EASTMAN WITH ADVISORY STAGE BEING MET AT COLUMBIA. OTHER RIVER
THAT ARE EXPECTED TO BE ON THE RISE ARE THE ENOREE RIVER AT
WHITMIRE AND THE N. FORK OF THE EDISTO AT ORANGEBURG. AT THIS
TIME...NO ADVISORIES OR RIVER FLOOD WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT AT THIS
TIME.

&&

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$





USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.