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Area Forecast Discussion

534
FXUS62 KCAE 271140
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
640 AM EST THU NOV 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CROSS THE REGION TODAY WITH A DRY COLD
FRONT CROSSING THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING. DRY HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY. BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SWING ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. WEAK
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OVER WESTERN NC EARLY THIS MORNING WILL MOVE
EAST...DRAGGING A DRY COLD FRONT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS
MORNING. THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE NC COAST
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.

BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...COLD ADVECTION WILL HOLD TEMPERATURES IN
THE 50S THIS AFTERNOON...DESPITE SUNSHINE. A STRONG PRESSURE
GRADIENT AND 850MB WINDS 30-35 KNOTS WILL BRING BREEZY CONDITIONS
TODAY. COLD ADVECTION WILL BE MORE NOTICEABLE THIS EVENING WITH
TEMPERATURES QUICKLY FALLING AROUND SUNSET WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS
FALLING INTO THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE PLAINS WILL BUILD EAST INTO THE FORECAST
AREA FRIDAY AND GRADUALLY MOVE OFF THE COAST SATURDAY. FRIDAY
SHOULD BE THE COOLEST DAY WITH HIGHS WELL BELOW NORMAL RANGING
FROM THE UPPER 40S NORTHERN MIDLANDS TO LOWER 50S IN THE CSRA.
TEMPERATURES WILL COOL TO THE UPPER 20S FOR MOST LOCATIONS
GIVEN NEARLY IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS.

THE RETURN OF SOUTHWEST WINDS ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BRING WARM ADVECTION SATURDAY. SHOULD SEE HIGHS
RANGING FROM THE MID 50S TO AROUND 60 WITH LOWS IN THE MID
AND UPPER 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
UNCERTAINTY EXISTS IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST LEADING TO LOWER THAN
NORMAL CONFIDENCE. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED EARLY IN THE
PERIOD FOLLOWED BY MUCH UNCERTAINTY REGARDING POTENTIAL RAIN AND
TEMPERATURES LATER IN THE PERIOD.

THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN ON SUNDAY FEATURES A GENERALLY ZONAL WEST TO
EAST FLOW WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVING OFF THE EAST COAST BUT
CONTINUING TO RIDGE INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES.  NORTHERN STREAM
SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL INDUCE A WEAK UPPER TROUGH THAT WILL QUICKLY
MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER STATES INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION
THROUGH MONDAY.  A SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE OHIO VALLEY
AND MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BEFORE CROSSING OUR AREA ON MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  THERE IS SOME DISCREPANCY AMONG THE
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS WITH THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE AVAILABLE WITH THE
FRONT AND HOW FAR IT WILL PUSH SOUTH. WILL CONTINUE THE CURRENT
FORECAST OF NO POPS OR SLIGHT CHANCE POPS DURING THIS PERIOD.  IF
THE FRONT IS TO PUSH FAR ENOUGH SOUTH THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY OF
POTENTIAL WEDGE CONDITIONS DEVELOPING BY TUESDAY BUT AGAIN LOW
CONFIDENCE AT THIS POINT.

LATER IN THE EXTENDED...THE ECMWF IS SHOWING ANOTHER QUICK MOVING
TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY WHICH PUSHES A COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY WHILE THE GFS IS SHOWING SHORTWAVE
RIDGING AT THIS TIME WITH SIGNIFICANT ENERGY RELOADING IN A
SOUTHWESTERN TROUGH WHICH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE COUNTRY LATE IN THE
WEEK.  OVERALL...THE TEMPERATURES DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD LIKELY
TO BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. SCATTERED CLOUDS
ASSOCIATED WITH S/W AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONT HAVE MOVED
NORTHEAST OF THE TAF SITES THIS MORNING. A TIGHTENING PRESSURE
GRADIENT AND COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL PRODUCE BREEZY CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE MIDLANDS AND CSRA BEHIND THE FRONT.  MODEL TIME-HEIGHT
DISPLAYS AND MIXING SUPPORTS GUSTS 20 TO 25 KNOTS. WINDS WILL
DIMINISH IN THE EVENING WITH DIMINISHED MIXING AND A RELAXING
PRESSURE GRADIENT.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS EXPECTED.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON FOR SCZ030.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$





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