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Area Forecast Discussion

621
FXUS62 KCAE 200623
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
223 AM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER TROUGH AND SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL SLOWLY MOVE THROUGH THE
REGION TONIGHT...AND PUSH TOWARDS THE COAST SATURDAY. DRIER AIR
WILL ENTER THE REGION SUNDAY. A DRY FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY. DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN
CONTROL EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
REST OF TONIGHT...A LOW-LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW WITH COLD
TEMPERATURES ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER TROUGH MAY SUPPORT
SHOWERS OVERNIGHT. THE MODELS INDICATE H85 EASTERLY WINDS NEAR 20
KNOTS WITH H5 TEMPERATURES AROUND -10 C. THE SHOWER CHANCE WILL BE
GREATER IN THE SOUTHEAST PART WHERE MOISTURE WILL BE DEEPER. RADAR
TRENDS AND NOCTURNAL COOLING SUPPORT LOW POPS. THE HIGH-RESOLUTION
MODELS DISPLAY VERY LITTLE COVERAGE. THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST IS
ON TRACK.

TODAY...UPPER LOW OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST WILL CONTINUE TO CLOSE
OFF EARLY IN THE DAY BEFORE BEGINNING TO SLOWLY MOVE NORTHEAST.
AT THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO WEDGE INTO THE
WESTERN CAROLINAS FROM THE NORTH. A SURFACE LOW SHOULD DEVELOP
ALONG THE COASTAL FRONT IN RESPONSE TO THE UPPER LOW CUTTING OFF.
THIS LOW WILL KEEP SOME MOISTURE ACROSS EXTREME EASTERN PORTIONS
OF SC...WHILE THE SURFACE RIDGE NOSING IN FROM THE NORTH WILL
FILTER DRIER AIR INTO THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE
REGION. THIS SHOULD SET UP A GOOD MOISTURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGH THE DAY. THE SURFACE LOW SHOULD SPREAD SOME
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS INLAND THROUGH THE DAY. THIS WILL
KEEP THE BEST CHANCE FOR ANY RAINFALL ACROSS THE EXTREME EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE CWA.  WILL CONTINUE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THE
EASTERN MIDLANDS AND CSRA AS SHOWERS ROTATE AROUND THE LOW. EXPECT
NORTHEASTERLY WINDS NEAR 10 MPH WITH GUSTS AROUND 15 MPH THROUGH
THE DAY. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80
ACROSS THE EXTREME EAST WHERE CLOUDS WILL BE MORE PLENTIFUL. HIGHS
SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY HIGHER ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN COUNTIES
DUE TO MORE SUNSHINE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
SATURDAY NIGHT...THE SURFACE AND UPPER LOW WILL LIFT NORTHEAST
AWAY FROM THE FORECAST AREA ALLOWING DRIER AIR TO FILTER INTO THE
AREA FROM THE WEST. LOWS IN THE LOWER 60S AS SKIES CLEAR.

SUNDAY...THE CLOSED LOW OFF THE COAST WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK
NORTHEASTWARD TAKING THE BETTER MOISTURE WITH IT. H850 FLOW
BECOMES DOWNSLOPE AND PWAT DECREASES TO BELOW AN INCH WITH WEAK
INSTABILITY. HAVE CONTINUED TO INDICATE A DRY FORECAST. SUNNY
SKIES AND DOWNSLOPE WINDS SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO
THE MID 80S TO AROUND 90 DEGREES. NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER
THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE
OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS ON SUNDAY. THIS FRONT WILL MOVE INTO
THE UPSTATE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. WENT WITH CONSENSUS FOR LOWS IN THE
LOW TO MID 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL SHIFT EAST MONDAY
PUSHING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. THE GFS IS
QUICKER THAN THE NAM WITH THE TIMING OF THE FRONT. THE TIMING OF
THE FRONT WILL INFLUENCE HEATING AND THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY.
CONTINUED TO INDICATE ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE AS MOISTURE APPEARS
LIMITED AND TIMING APPEARS TOO EARLY TO BE DIURNALLY FAVORABLE.
MUCH DRIER AND COOLER AIR SHOULD REACH THE AREA LATE MONDAY IN THE
WAKE OF THE FRONT...JUST IN TIME FOR THE FALL EQUINOX. TUESDAY
MORNING LOW TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST IN THE UPPER 50S NORTH TO
LOWER 60S SOUTH. THE FRONT WILL BE WELL OFFSHORE BY TUESDAY WITH
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE OHIO
VALLEY. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL BE OFFSHORE BY WEDNESDAY WITH AN
UPPER RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION. HIGH PRESSURE OVER
NEW ENGLAND WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY WILL CREATE A STRONG EASTERLY
LOW-LEVEL FLOW OFF THE ATLANTIC. HAVE FORECAST MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES ALONG WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 70S WITH LOWS IN THE
UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
POSSIBLE MVFR CEILINGS DEVELOP BY 09Z...LASTING THROUGH 15Z. AFTER
THAT VFR CONDITIONS FORECAST.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE CLOSING OFF OVER THE SOUTHEAST
TODAY AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OFF THE COAST. MODEL FORECASTS
INDICATE A 25 KNOT LOW LEVEL JET OVERNIGHT WHICH SHOULD INHIBIT
FOG DEVELOPMENT BUT MAY ALSO SUPPORT THE REDEVELOPMENT OF MVFR
STRATUS CIGS. STILL PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE AND
FORECASTING 2500FT CIGS TO DEVELOP BY 08-09Z...THEN EXPECT CIGS TO
RAISE BACK TO VFR AFTER 15Z. WINDS WILL REMAIN FROM THE EAST
OVERNIGHT 5 TO 10 MPH BUT AS THE LOW STRENGTHENS OFF THE COAST
DURING THE DAY...THE RESULTING PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL INCREASE
WINDS TO AROUND 10 TO 15 MPH BY 15Z. CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY SATURDAY
EXPECTED TO FAVOR AREAS NEAR THE COAST AND WILL NOT INCLUDE
MENTION IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...LATE NIGHT AND MORNING FOG/STRATUS
POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$







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