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Area Forecast Discussion

644
FXUS62 KCAE 242342
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
742 PM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST WILL KEEP DRY WEATHER
ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. DAYTIME HIGHS WILL BE
SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS CROSSING THE MIDLANDS THIS EVENING AHEAD OF
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. THESE CLOUDS
WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA BY MIDNIGHT...ALTHOUGH THE UPPER
TROUGH WILL DEEPEN AND SWING THROUGH OVERNIGHT. DRY SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE RIDGING IN FROM THE WEST. KEPT OVERNIGHT
LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO MIDDLE 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
SURFACE RIDGE TO THE WEST EXTENDING INTO THE CAROLINAS. DRY
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT THROUGH THE PERIOD. APPEARS A WEAK TROUGH
MOVES THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY BUT MOISTURE QUITE
LIMITED...ONLY A FEW CLOUDS EXPECTED. UPPER RIDGE BUILDING IN FROM
THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AS UPPER LOW MOVES NORTHEAST OF NEW
ENGLAND. WEAK DOWNSLOPE FLOW AND WARM ADVECTION SO EXPECT WARMING
TREND. PREFER WARMER MAV GUIDANCE BASED ON COOL MET MODEL BIAS
LAST FEW DAYS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE MODELS SHOW DRY RIDGING DOMINATING DURING MUCH OF THE MEDIUM-
RANGE PERIOD. A COUPLE COLD FRONTS WITH INCREASED MOISTURE MAY AFFECT
THE AREA LATE IN THE PERIOD. WEAK FRONT WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
STRONGER FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT OR EARLY FRIDAY AS UPPER TROUGH
AMPLIFIES IN THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND EASTERN STATES. LATEST GFS
ENSEMBLE BACKED OFF ON POPS WEDNESDAY. SLIGHT CHANCE SHOWERS
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING EARLY AND WARMING AHEAD
OF THE COLD FRONT LATE IN THE PERIOD SUPPORTS ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE/TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT.
HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS CROSSING THE MIDLANDS AHEAD OF THE
DISTURBANCE/TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST OF THE TAF SITES BY 04Z.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST WITH LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS. VERY DRY AIR MASS WILL BE OVER THE REGION. LOW
CONFIDENCE IN FOG DEVELOPMENT AT AGS 09Z-12Z...SO WILL NOT INCLUDE
ATTM.

.EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...
NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS TO AVIATION EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$





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