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Area Forecast Discussion

FXUS62 KCAE 261842

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
242 PM EDT SUN JUN 26 2016

High pressure ridging into the forecast area from the
northeast will weaken Monday. Moisture will increase Monday night
ahead of a cold front. The front will move into the area Tuesday.


A quiet afternoon so far with convection initiating and focused
along the old frontal boundary which is located across southern GA
back up to near Atlanta. Drier air over the forecast area has
resulted in much weaker instability today with only fair weather
cumulus across the region today. Temperatures are on track pushing
into the 90s early this afternoon and expect highs to range from
around 90 northern Midlands to mid 90s in the CSRA.

Any convection that may develop along the sea breeze and push
towards the lower CSRA and far southern Midlands should diminish
quickly with sunset and expect skies to clear overnight allowing
for some radiational cooling. Some uncertainty regarding the
possibility of stratus redevelopment late tonight along the
coastal plain pushing inland but that could limit the cooling.


Upper ridging will weaken over the area Monday with upper level
flow becoming more westerly Monday night. A cold front stretched
out across the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys early Monday will make
its way toward the Appalachian region through the day with the
surface ridge shifting northeastward and a weak surface trough
developing.  Moisture will increase from west to east ahead of
the frontal boundary. Models are consistent showing an increased
chance of thunderstorms in the northwest portion of the area
closer to deeper moisture. Warm air advection will promote high
temperatures in the lower to middle 90s.


The GFS and ECMWF are in good agreement showing an upper ridge
over the western US and a trough axis crossing the Great Lakes
region and spreading out over the eastern US by mid week. A weak
frontal boundary is forecast to move into the area on Tuesday and
linger in the area through the end of the work week before
dissipating. Models show the deepest moisture over the area on
Tuesday with precipitable water values over 2.2 inches at times.
The deepest moisture shifts toward the coast late Tuesday and
Wednesday but with the front in the area and sufficient moisture,
still expect chance pops each day. Temperatures each day are
forecast near climatology.


Reasonably high confidence in VFR conditions through around 09z
all terminals then possible MVFR/IFR vsbys in fog or stratus
with higher confidence at AGS/OGB.

Generally VFR cumulus clouds through evening then clearing after
sunset with some possible scattered high clouds overnight. Models
indicate possible stratus developing along the coastal plain and
advecting inland to the Midlands during the predawn hours.
Included MVFR vsbys with this forecast at AGS/OGB for fog but
could be stratus although low level jet is not as strong tonight
compared to last night. Possible to see restrictions at
DNL/CAE/CUB but confidence is lower therefore not included.

VFR conditions should return to all terminals by 14z-15z. Winds
will remain from the east to northeast 5 to 10 knots through
sunset then become light and variable to calm overnight.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Diurnal convection expected Monday.
The chance for convection will increase Tuesday as a cold front
crosses the region.





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