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Area Forecast Discussion

503
FXUS62 KCAE 222218
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
618 PM EDT FRI AUG 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL THROUGH THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
MIDLANDS SATURDAY...AND SHIFT TOWARDS THE CSRA SUNDAY. THIS WILL
LEAD TO A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...WITH TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO MORE NORMAL LEVELS BEHIND
IT. THE FRONT WILL LINGER SOUTH OF THE CSRA EARLY TO MID NEXT
WEEK...LEADING TO GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER WITH NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
88D REGIONAL COMPOSITE SHOWS A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE UPSTATE...PEE DEE AND CENTRAL GEORGIA.
ATMOSPHERE REMAINS CAPPED ACROSS THE MIDLANDS AND AIRMASS IS
DRIER WITH DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 50S TO MIDDLE 60S.
ONLY EXPECT AN ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA THROUGH EARLY EVENING. FORECAST
AGRESS WELL WITH HRRR AS IT SHOWS ANY ACTIVITY REMAINING NORTH OF
THE CWA.

SURFACE LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE VA COAST IS FORECAST TO MOVE
SOUTHWARD OVERNIGHT INTO EASTERN NC. THIS WILL ALLOW A BACKDOOR
COLD FRONT TO APPROACH THE NORTHERN MIDLANDS AROUND DAYBREAK
SATURDAY. KEPT OVERNIGHT LOWS NEAR CONSENSUS IN THE LOWER AND
MIDDLE 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MAIN ISSUE FOR SATURDAY AND INTO SUNDAY IS TIMING OF APPROACHING
BACK DOOR FRONT. THINK PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH SETS UP ACROSS SOUTHERN
CWA SATURDAY WITH FRONT IN EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA SHIFTING
SOUTHWEST DURING SATURDAY EVENING. MOS POP GUIDANCE LOW BUT SREF
AND MODEL QPF SUGGEST SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD
AND ALONG FRONT AS AIR MASS MODERATELY UNSTABLE AND MOISTURE
INCREASING...PRECIPITABLE WATER MAY RISE TO AROUND 2 INCHES.

WARM MAX TEMPS STILL POSSIBLE SAT AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WITH
WARMEST TEMPS FAVORING THE CSRA WHERE TEMPS COULD REACH 100 AGAIN.
WITH NAM BEING SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN GFS WITH THE BACK DOOR FRONT...THE
NAM MOS IS SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN THE GFS MOS FOR SAT MAX
TEMP...ESPECIALLY NORTH AND CENTRAL. EVEN IF TEMPS NEAR 100
REACHED AGAIN SAT...GUIDANCE STILL SUGGESTS DEWPOINTS LOW ENOUGH
TO PRECLUDE HEAT INDEX VALUES FROM REACHING OUR HEAT ADVISORY
CRITERIA OF 110F.

FRONT EXPECTED TO SHIFT SW THRU THE FA SAT NIGHT THRU SUN NIGHT.
EXPECT CHANCE POPS NEAR AND JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WITH COOLING
TEMPS ALONG AND NORTH OF IT. SO...POPS SUN AFTERNOON FAVORING THE
CSRA WHERE INSTABILITY/LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE STRONGER. HIGH TEMPS SUNDAY
SHOULD BE NOTICEABLY LESS BEHIND THE FRONT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH MOVING THE FRONT SOUTH OF THE SAVANNAH
RIVER WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING IN FOR THE WEEK.  WITH COOLER
DRY AIR SETTLING IN WILL BRING SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPS.  EXPECT
MAX TEMPS 85 TO 90 EARLY TO MID WEEK RISING BACK INTO THE LOWER 90S
LATER IN THE WEEK.  OVERNIGHT MINS WILL BE 65 TO 70 RISING INTO
THE LOWER 70S LATER IN THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.

DIURNAL WIDELY SCATTERED CUMULUS AOA 6-7 KFT ACROSS THE REGION
THIS AFTERNOON...BUT THIS WILL BE DIMINISHING THIS EVENING WITH
LOSS OF HEATING. GIVEN FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINING WELL NORTH OF
THE AREA...CHANCE FOR CONVECTION TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN TAFS ATTM.
NORTHWEST TO WEST WINDS 10 KNOTS OR LESS THIS AFTERNOON WILL
DIMINISH AND VEER NORTHERLY OVERNIGHT.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MVFR OR IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN LATE
NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING FOG SUNDAY AND MONDAY. ISOLATED AFTERNOON
AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS MAY ALSO BRING RESTRICTIONS SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$
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