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Area Forecast Discussion

828
FXUS62 KCAE 140940
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
440 AM EST SUN FEB 14 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A PRESSURE RIDGE EXTENDING THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA TODAY WILL
SHIFT OFF THE COAST TONIGHT WITH A WARM FRONT DEVELOPING SOUTH OF
THE FORECAST AREA. THE WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHWARD AND INTO THE
AREA MONDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE REGION LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
TODAY...DRY SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND INTO THE FORECAST
AREA FROM THE NORTH. SATELLITE TRENDS INDICATE SOME HIGH
CLOUDINESS IN A FLAT UPPER-LEVEL FLOW. THE TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE
WAS CONSISTENT. THE MAV AND MET MOS HAVE NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS
NEAR 10 MPH.

TONIGHT...THE RIDGE WILL SHIFT OFF THE COAST AND A LOW-LEVEL
ONSHORE FLOW WILL DEVELOP IN THE FORECAST AREA. THE MODELS SHOW AN
INVERTED TROUGH OR WARM FRONT DEVELOPING NEAR THE COAST.
HOWEVER...THERE IS CONSISTENCY WITH DEEPER MOISTURE REMAINING
NORTHWEST OF THE FORECAST AREA WELL AHEAD OF AN UPPER TROUGH.
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL RESULT IN A
POSSIBILITY OF PRECIPITATION DEVELOPING BUT WITH SHALLOW MOISTURE
AND LITTLE UPPER-LEVEL LIFT WE KEEP JUST CHANCE POPS AND EXPECT
LIGHT AMOUNTS IF IT OCCURS. THE NAM...GFS...ECMWF AND NEARLY ALL
SREF MEMBERS SHOW VERY LITTLE QPF...MAINLY NEAR 0.01 OF AN INCH.
THE ARW AND SPC WRF KEEP SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION NORTHWEST OF
THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT. THE TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE WAS
CONSISTENT IN THE NORTH PART OF THE FORECAST AREA...BUT THE NAM
WAS COLDER IN THE SOUTH PART. WE USED A GUIDANCE CONSENSUS FOR THE
TEMPERATURE FORECAST. MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE FREEZING
RAIN AS THE PREDOMINATE PRECIPITATION TYPE FOR ALL BUT THE EXTREME
SOUTHEAST SECTION. IT IS POSSIBLE A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR
LIGHT FREEZING RAIN MAY BE NEEDED FOR LATE TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE NAM...GFS...AND ECMWF DISPLAY AN ONSHORE FLOW INTO THE
FORECAST AREA WITH A WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTHWARD AND INTO THE
AREA MONDAY. PRECIPITATION MAY OCCUR MAINLY ASSOCIATED WITH
ISENTROPIC LIFT. LITTLE UPPER-LEVEL LIFT IS INDICATED. THE MODELS
HAVE SHALLOW MOISTURE AND LIGHT PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS. THE
NAM...GFS...AND ECMWF HAVE QPF AROUND 0.01 OF AN INCH MONDAY
MORNING...AND 0.01 TO 0.1 OF AN INCH MONDAY AFTERNOON. MODEL
FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE A PREDOMINATE PRECIPITATION TYPE OF
FREEZING RAIN EXCEPT IN THE EXTREME SOUTHEAST PART. THE FREEZING
RAIN THREAT SHOULD DIMINISH FROM SOUTH TO NORTH AS THE WARM FRONT
LIFTS NORTHWARD. USED AN AVERAGE OF THE NAM AND GFS FOR THE
TIMING. THE NAM WAS SLOWER ERODING THE COLDEST AIR AND MAY BE
CORRECT BECAUSE OF THE WEDGE PATTERN BUT THE MODEL HAS HAD A COLD
BIAS OF LATE. BASED ON THE MODEL AGREEMENT WITH LITTLE QPF AND
EXPECTED SHALLOW MOISTURE WE HAVE NOT POSTED A WINTER STORM WATCH
BECAUSE THE CHANCE OF 0.25 OF AN INCH OF ICE WAS TOO LOW.
HOWEVER...A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE ABOVE FREEZING MONDAY NIGHT WITH WARMING
AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THE BULK OF THE RAINFALL
SHOULD OCCUR MONDAY NIGHT ASSOCIATED WITH CONVERGENCE AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONT...STRONG H85 JET...AND H5 SHORTWAVE TROUGH. THE MODELS
DISPLAY QPF OF 0.25 TO 1 INCH WITH THE NAM AND ECMWF SHOWING THE
GREATER AMOUNTS. WE LEANED TOWARD THE HIGHER VALUES BASED ON THE
MODEL CONSISTENCY OF A 50-KNOTS H85 JET. THE NAM MAINTAINS
SURFACE-BASED STABILITY WITH LI/S ABOVE ZERO. HOWEVER...A FEW
ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY OCCUR WITH CROSS TOTALS FORECAST IN THE
MID AND UPPER 20S. EXPECT RISING TEMPERATURES MONDAY NIGHT.

THE MODELS DISPLAY DRYING BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AND H5 SHORTWAVE
TROUGH FOR TUESDAY. WE HAVE FORECASTED A DIMINISHED SHOWER CHANCE.
FOLLOWED THE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS FOR THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE MODELS SHOW MUCH OF THE MOISTURE AND LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH
A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH REMAINING NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA
TUESDAY NIGHT. THE MODELS DEPICT DRY RIDGING DOMINATING DURING THE
MEDIUM-RANGE PERIOD. THE GFS...ECMWF...AND EKD MOS HAVE NEAR OR
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH POPS LESS THAN 20 PERCENT.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS FOR MUCH OF THE 24-HR TAF FORECAST
PERIOD..BECOMING MVFR EARLY MONDAY MORNING.

HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE EARLY THIS
MORNING WITH CEILINGS AT OR ABOVE 10KFT. CEILINGS WILL FALL TO
MVFR LEVELS BY SUNRISE MONDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL BE NORTHEAST
THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE LATE
IN THE PERIOD BUT NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO MENTION AT ANY OF THE
TAF SITES AT THIS TIME.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...CIG/VSBY RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY MORNING AS A SOUTHERN STREAM LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CROSSES
THE REGION.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...99
NEAR TERM...99
SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM...99
AVIATION...99



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