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Area Forecast Discussion

276
FXUS62 KCAE 201837
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
137 PM EST SAT DEC 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL ZONE WILL REMAIN NEAR THE SOUTHEAST COAST
THROUGH TUESDAY. A SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL MOVE
NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE FRONT. A STRONG COLD FRONT APPROACHING
FROM THE WEST WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
RAIN HAS ALMOST CLEARED THE FORECAST AREA WITH SOME LINGERING RAIN
OVER THE EASTERN MIDLANDS BUT THIS TOO SHOULD SHIFT OUT BY 2 PM.
TEMPERATURES HAVE NOT MOVED MUCH TODAY DUE TO EXTENSIVE CLOUDS AND
LIGHT RAIN BUT MAY RISE A DEGREE OR TWO BEFORE SUNSET NOW THAT THE
RAIN HAS CLEARED. LOW CLOUDS EXTEND WELL BACK INTO ALABAMA AND
WITH MODEL TIME HEIGHTS AND CROSS SECTIONS SHOWING SIGNIFICANT
MOISTURE IN THE LOWER LEVELS DO NOT THINK THE LOW CLOUDS WILL
BREAK OVERNIGHT. WITH THE FORECAST AREA IN THE WAKE OF THE
DEPARTING SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND THEREFORE LACK OF UPWARD VERTICAL
MOTION DO NOT THINK THERE WILL BE SIGNIFICANT DRIZZLE OVERNIGHT
BUT DO THINK THERE WILL BE AREAS OF FOG THAT DEVELOPS AND POSSIBLY
SOME DENSE FOG IN TYPICAL LOW LYING AREAS. OVERNIGHT LOWS TONIGHT
SHOULD FALL INTO THE MID 30S ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT. THERE MAY
BE AREAS OF FOG AS INDICATED BY THE GFS MOS. LITTLE TEMPERATURE
RECOVERY SHOULD OCCUR TODAY BECAUSE OF CLOUDINESS. THE HIGH
TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE IS LIKELY TOO WARM. LEANED TOWARD THE MORE
CONSISTENT GFS MOS FOR THE TEMPERATURE TONIGHT.

WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT SUPPORTS A RAIN CHANCE SUNDAY MAINLY LATE AS
MOISTURE BECOMES DEEPER AHEAD OF ANOTHER MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE
TROUGH. THE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS SUPPORTS POPS OF 20 TO 30 PERCENT
FOR MAINLY LATE IN THE DAY. THE MODELS ARE CONSISTENT DISPLAYING
SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE AND ISENTROPIC LIFT SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTHEAST PART OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE MODELS
INDICATE MOISTURE BECOMING SHALLOW LATE MONDAY BEHIND THE
ASSOCIATED MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH. USED THE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS
FOR THE POP FORECAST. THE GUIDANCE HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY
TOO WARM BECAUSE OF CLOUDINESS AND A LOW-LEVEL NORTHEAST FLOW. THE
GUIDANCE LOW TEMPERATURE WERE CLOSE. THE MODELS HAVE BEEN
CONSISTENT INDICATING ALL-LIQUID PRECIPITATION.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH MOISTURE SHOULD CONTINUE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY AHEAD
OF A WARM FRONT AND DEEPENING UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH. THE GFS AND
ECMWF MODELS HAVE TRENDED SLOWER WITH THE PASSAGE OF A STRONG
COLD FRONT AND NOW DISPLAY FRONTAL PASSAGE WEDNESDAY. THE WARM
FRONT MAY LIFT NORTHWARD AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT.

IF THE FORECAST AREA GETS INTO THE WARM SECTOR THERE MAY BE
ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT TUESDAY
NIGHT OR WEDNESDAY. THE GFS AND ECMWF DISPLAY H85 WINDS OF 40 TO
60 KNOTS. THE SHEAR AND POTENTIAL FOR SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY
INDICATES A POSSIBILITY OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.

EXPECT A DIMINISHED SHOWER CHANCE WEDNESDAY NIGHT BEHIND THE
FRONT WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS. THE MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT
SHOWING A DRY WEST FLOW BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE NEAR THE GULF COAST
AND LOW PRESSURE LIFTING NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKE REGION FOR
CHRISTMAS DAY. BREEZY CONDITIONS MAY CONTINUE DURING THE DAY...BUT
THE MODEL TREND HAS BEEN TO SHOW THE RIDGE FARTHER NORTHWARD WITH
LESS OF A PRESSURE GRADIENT IN THE FORECAST AREA.

MOISTURE MAY INCREASE AHEAD OF ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHING
FRIDAY. THE GFS SHOWS LESS MOISTURE COMPARED TO THE ECMWF. THE
ECMWF KEEPS MUCH OF THE FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT WEST OF
THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH FRIDAY. THE GFS...ECMWF...AND EKD MOS
POPS ARE JUST 10 TO 20 PERCENT.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MVFR/IFR CIG RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE 24 HOUR
FORECAST PERIOD.

REGIONAL RADAR SHOWING THE RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH THE PASSING
SHORTWAVE TROUGH HAS SHIFTED EAST OF THE TERMINALS AND DO NOT
EXPECT ANY ADDITIONAL RAIN. SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE HAS
STRENGTHENED THE INVERSION AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRAPPED BELOW IT
SO AM EXPECTING THE MVFR/IFR CIGS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD. HRRR GUIDANCE HAS BEEN TO OPTIMISTIC WITH CIGS THUS FAR
TODAY AND MET GUIDANCE HAS BEEN DOING WELL WITH THE LOW CIGS SO
HAVE LEANED TOWARD THAT GUIDANCE AND THE LAV GUIDANCE LOWERING
CIGS TO IFR ALL TERMINALS AFTER 04Z WITH POSSIBLE LIFR CIGS
OGB/AGS/DNL. VSBYS ALSO LIKELY TO DROP INTO MVFR AND POSSIBLY IFR
04Z-12Z TIME FRAME. SOME IMPROVEMENT IS EXPECTED AFTER 13Z BUT LOW
CONFIDENCE THAT VFR CONDITIONS WILL RETURN.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS AND
PRECIPITATION EXPECTED LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WITH ANOTHER
GULF COAST SYSTEM CROSSING THE REGION. YET ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL
AFFECT THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT BRINGING POSSIBLE RESTRICTIONS WITH
WINDY CONDITIONS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...HC
AVIATION...HC




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