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Area Forecast Discussion

572
FXUS62 KCAE 292333
AFDCAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
733 PM EDT WED JUN 29 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A surface trough of low pressure will move into the Upstate late
this afternoon and overnight then stall and weaken across the
area. The chance for showers and thunderstorms will continue
across the region through the weekend. High pressure over the
western Atlantic will ridge into the southeastern states this
weekend into early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
Scattered shower and thunderstorm activity developing along a
surface boundary to our north, enhanced by weak upper impulse.
Overall areal coverage limited some by limited atmospheric moisture,
with dry air aloft seen on satellite water vapor imagery across the
western Carolinas and N GA. The activity is drifting SE towards our
northern FA. Radar trends and latest high resolution models suggest
chance POPs in order for our northern FA, with slight chance into
the central FA, through early tonight, with expectation that the
activity will dissipate by late tonight. Latest mesoanalysis
indicates generally weak to moderate instability. Some of the
stronger storms this evening could possibly contain hail and
strong wind gusts due to the dry air aloft.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
A broad upper trough will remain over the Southeastern US for
Thursday. A stationary frontal boundary is expected to be near the
Upstate and western portion of the forecast area with a lee
trough. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected to
develop in a moderately unstable air mass. 0-6 km shear values are
near 20-25 knots. Peak precipitable water values are around 1.8 to
2 inches. Most of the area remains in a marginal risk for severe
weather from the Storm Prediction Center with damaging winds as
the main threat. Temperatures will be near to slightly above
normal with highs in the lower to middle 90s and lows in the lower
70s.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
The long term features a typical summertime pattern with diurnally
driven scattered showers and thunderstorms expected each day. The
focus for showers and storms will be along a stalled boundary that
will be near the northern portion of the forecast area. Upper
forcing will be lacking so expect that the severe threat will be
low. Temperatures are generally forecast a couple of degrees above
normal with highs in the lower to middle 90s.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

Mainly VFR conditions expected this evening and into the early
portions of tonight.  Expecting convection to remain west and north
of the Midlands and CSRA, and have left out any mention of shra/tsra
in the tafs. After Midnight there will be an increasing potential
for patchy fog at AGS/OGB/DNL. Model time sections indicate some low
level moisture with the southerly low-level flow. Have included a
period of mvfr fog at AGS/DNL/OGB with VFR conditions returning by
14z.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Restrictions possible in diurnal
convection each afternoon through the period along with late night
patchy fog.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
SC...None.

&&

$$



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