« Back
NWS Peachtree City, Ga » Text Product » CAE Area Forecast Discussion


Printer-friendly Version     Surrounding:  BMX  MRX  FFC  CAE  TAE  
Current Version              Previous Versions:   1  2  3  4  5  6  7  8  9  

Area Forecast Discussion

064
FXUS62 KCAE 271034
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
634 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BRING CONTINUED HOT AND DRY WEATHER
TODAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION MONDAY WITH A
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. DRY AND COOLER WEATHER WILL FOLLOW
TUESDAY INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
REGIONAL RADARS SHOW RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH A VORTMAX MOVING
THROUGH THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS IS MOVING EAST OF THE NC
MOUNTAINS THIS MORNING. BULK OF THIS ENERGY WILL REMAIN OFF TO THE
NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA...AND THE RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH IT
SHOULD DISSIPATE AS IT MOVES EAST OF THE SC MOUNTAINS AND
DOWNSLOPES. STILL CAN NOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SHOWER/STORM ACROSS
THE EXTREME NORTHERN COUNTIES THROUGH THE MORNING.

TODAY THE FORECAST AREA WILL COME UNDER WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
AS A STRONG DEVELOPING TROUGH IN THE UPPER MIDWEST MOVES TOWARDS
THE REGION. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW WEAK WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT THROUGH
MUCH OF THE DAY. AT THE SURFACE...WINDS WILL BE A LITTLE MORE
SOUTHWESTERLY...BUT WITH MIXING IN THE AFTERNOON...SOME OF THE
GUSTY DOWNSLOPING WINDS ALOFT SHOULD REACH THE SURFACE. THIS WILL
HELP WARM TEMPERATURES UP INTO THE UPPER 90S...OR AROUND 100...BY
THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER
70S...RH VALUES WILL BE LOW ENOUGH IN THE AFTERNOON TO KEEP HEAT
INDEX VALUES FROM RISING ABOVE 105.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO DIG AND STRENGTHEN INTO THE
SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATED TONIGHT INTO MONDAY NIGHT. MODELS
CONTINUE TO FORECAST THE COLD FRONT TO PUSH INTO THE REGION
MONDAY...AND BE EAST OF THE AREA BY LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON. LATEST
RUNS ALSO INDICATING THE FRONT MAY PUSH THROUGH DRIER THAT
PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT. BEST INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE WILL BE ACROSS
THE EXTREME EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA...CLOSER TO THE
COAST...THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WILL GENERALLY HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE DAY...WITH POSSIBLE CHANCE POPS
ACROSS THE EXTREME EAST LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN CHANCES
RAPIDLY DIMINISH EARLY MONDAY NIGHT AS DRIER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT
PUSHES INTO THE REGION.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES...EXTREMELY MILD READINGS FORECAST TONIGHT
AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLOW TO FALL
EARLY IN THE EVENING...AND WITH INCREASING DEWPOINTS ON SOUTHWESTERLY
WINDS...LOWS IN THE UPPER 70S ARE EXPECTED TO OCCUR. FOR MONDAY
TEMPERATURES WILL DEPEND ON WHEN THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH. FOR NOW
EXPECT PASSAGE IN THE LATE AFTERNOON...WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR
ANOTHER HOT DAY WITH READINGS ONCE AGAIN IN THE UPPER 90S. BEHIND
THE FRONT MONDAY NIGHT...TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE A GOOD 10 DEGREES
COOLER THAT THE PREVIOUS NIGHT...WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE MIDDLE TO
UPPER 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THE LONGER TERM THINKING AND FORECAST.  THE
MAIN STORY CONTINUES TO BE THE EXPECTED BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

MODELS SHOW A DEEP LONG WAVE TROUGH ALONG THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
COUNTRY...WITH A STRONG RIDGE IN THE WEST. THIS WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR. SURFACE
TROUGH MAY STALL OUT NEAR THE COAST THROUGH THE WEEK...WHICH WOULD
KEEP THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAINFALL CLOSER TO THE COAST. SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING EASTWARD ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY AND OHIO RIVER VALLEY WILL RIDGE IN TO KEEP MUCH OF THE
FORECAST AREA DRY THROUGH THURSDAY. MODELS BEGIN BRINGING
INCREASING MOISTURE TO THE REGION BY THE END OF THE WEEK DUE TO
THE DEVELOPMENT OF AN EASTERLY FLOW OFF THE ATLANTIC.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR EXPECTED THROUGH MOST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. WILL CONTINUE TO
KEEP A MENTION OF A TEMPO GROUP FOR FOG AT BOTH AGS/OGB FOR THIS
MORNING. VFR SUNDAY...CONTINUED GENERALLY DRY. IT WILL BE LITTLE
MORE BREEZY THIS AFTERNOON WITH WEST/SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 KTS
WITH GUSTS UP TO 17 KNOTS. TONIGHT...MODELS HAVE BEEN INDICATING
A 30 TO 40 KT LOW LEVEL JET OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL LIKELY HELP KEEP
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT AS WELL AS WINDS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MINIMAL IF ANY CONVECTION EXPECTED
SUNDAY. BETTER THUNDERSTORM CHANCES MONDAY WITH APPROACHING COLD
FRONT.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD HIGHS FOR TODAY...
AT COLUMBIA...103 IN 1949
AT AUGUSTA...102 IN 1936

WE COULD TIE OR BREAK A RECORD LOW TEMPERATURE TONIGHT AT COLUMBIA.
THE FORECAST LOW TEMPERATURE TONIGHT FOR COLUMBIA IS 78 DEGREES.
RECORD HIGH LOW TEMPERATURE TONIGHT AT COLUMBIA IS 78 DEGREES LAST SET
IN 1936 (WHEN OBSERVATIONS WERE TAKEN IN DOWNTOWN COLUMBIA)

AT AUGUSTA...THE RECORD HIGH LOW TEMPERATURE IS 82 IN 1936 (WHEN
OBSERVATIONS WERE TAKEN IN DOWNTOWN AUGUSTA)

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$








USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.