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Area Forecast Discussion

180
FXUS62 KCAE 220609
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
209 AM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE FORECAST AREA WILL AGAIN BE A
FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH TONIGHT. AN UPPER
TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE AREA AND BRING A COLD FRONT INTO THE
REGION LATER THIS WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
UPPER LOW TO THE WEST HAS CLOSED OFF ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA...WHILE
THE FORECAST AREA REMAINS IN A REGION WHERE DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT.
THIS IS COMBINING WITH ABUNDANT ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE...PWAT VALUES
REMAIN OVER 2 INCHES...AND IS RESULTING IN THE CONTINUATION OF
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS..ESPECIALLY ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. WILL CONTINUE WITH
POPS IN THE LIKELY AND CATEGORICAL RANGES THROUGH THE LATE NIGHT
HOURS...THEN DIMINISH TO CHANCE POPS TOWARDS MORNING. AT THIS TIME
IT APPEARS AS IF THE EXTREMELY HEAVY RAIN THREAT HAS DIMINISHED
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. AREAS THAT RECEIVED EXTREME
AMOUNTS OF RAINFALL...ESPECIALLY THE COUNTY AND CITY OF
ORANGEBURG...WILL CONTINUE TO EXPERIENCE SOME FLOODING ISSUES
THROUGH THE NIGHT. TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT WILL REMAIN NEARLY
STEADY THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
AIR MASS REMAINS MOIST THROUGH THE PERIOD. BUFKIT SHOWS ABUNDANT
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ALONG WITH PLENTY OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE.

MODELS SHOW UPPER LEVEL LOW ALONG THE CENTRAL GULF COAST BY
TOMORROW. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BEGIN TO RETROGRADE DURING THE
DAY ON AND CONTINUE TO SLOWLY MOVE WESTWARD THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE PERIOD. BY WEDNESDAY...THE SYSTEM WILL BE ACROSS THE LOWER
MS RIVER VALLEY AND BEGIN TO INTERACT WITH ANOTHER S/W MOVING
ACROSS THE MIDWEST/OH VALLEY. PRECIPITABLE WATER REMAINS HIGH
THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH VALUES AROUND 2.0 INCHES AT TIMES. MODEL
SPECTRUM AND GUIDANCE SHOWING QUITE A RANGE WITH POPS FOR TUESDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. HAVE GENERALLY GRADUALLY DECREASED POPS
SOMEWHAT...BUT REMAIN IN THE CHANCE/HIGH CHANCE CATEGORY.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN BELOW NORMAL...AND NEAR A
CONSENSUS OF THE GUIDANCE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
MED RANGE MODELS SHOW UPPER LEVEL PATTERN TO PERSIST WITH A CLOSED
RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND ANOTHER OVER THE WESTERN U.S. AND
TROUGHING CONTINUING IN BETWEEN...MAINLY EAST OF THE MS RIVER.
MODELS INDICATE A REINFORCING SERIES OF S/W TO RE-DEVELOP/DEEPEN
THE TROUGH ACROSS THE EAST THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY. THE MODELS SHOW
A SURFACE TROUGH NEAR THE AREA DURING MUCH OF THE PERIOD WITH A
COLD FRONT NEAR THE REGION FRIDAY...THEN STALLING NEAR THE REGION
FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. THE GFS AND ECMWF MOS SUPPORT CHANCE
POPS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR CLIMATOLOGY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VARIABLE CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

WEATHER WILL REMAIN ACTIVE THROUGH THE PERIOD AS A STALLED
SURFACE BOUNDARY REMAINS ACROSS THE AREA WITH AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
OVER THE GULF COAST. WSR-88D NETWORK SHOWS LIGHT RAIN ALONG AND
SOUTH OF CAE/CUB WITH SURFACE OBS INDICATING VFR TO IFR
CONDITIONS. EXPECT CIGS AND VSBYS TO LOWER OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
HOURS WITH MVFR/IFR THROUGH MID MORNING. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE
DURING THE LATE MORNING...HOWEVER ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS
WITH POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL AT TIMES. HAVE INCLUDED VCSH
ATTM AND WILL ADJUST AS CONFIDENCE IN TIMING AND COVERAGE
INCREASES. WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE EASTERLY AT 5 KNOTS OR
LESS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK....CIG/VSBY RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY DUE TO PLENTY OF LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE
REGION THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...WHICH COULD BRING ADDITIONAL STORMS
TO THE REGION.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$







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