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Area Forecast Discussion

245
FXUS62 KCAE 141622
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1222 PM EDT SUN SEP 14 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH TUESDAY.
THE FRONT WILL HELP MAINTAIN CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS WITH A CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
TODAY
THE COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED JUST SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE FRONT
SHOULD MAKE LITTLE FARTHER PROGRESS SOUTHWARD BECAUSE OF THE UPPER
RIDGING OVER THE SOUTHEAST PART OF THE NATION. ISENTROPIC LIFT NORTH
OF THE FRONT SHOULD KEEP SKIES MOSTLY CLOUDY AND THERE WILL BE A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS WITH DRIZZLE POSSIBLE. THE THUNDERSTORM CHANCE
IS LOW ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTH PART BECAUSE OF DIMINISHED
INSTABILITY BEHIND THE FRONT. THE HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS INDICATE
MAINLY LIGHT RAINFALL AMOUNTS. CLOUDINESS AND THE NORTHEAST FLOW
SHOULD HOLD DOWN TEMPERATURES.

TONIGHT
THE FRONT WILL REMAIN STALLED JUST SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. WEAK
ISENTROPIC LIFT NORTH OF THE FRONT SUPPORTS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
WITH DRIZZLE POSSIBLE. INSTABILITY SHOULD REMAIN WEAK SO THE
THUNDERSTORM CHANCE IS LOW. THE MODELS GENERALLY DISPLAY LIGHT
RAINFALL AMOUNTS. NOCTURNAL COOLING WITH HIGH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
SHOULD LEAD TO FOG. LEANED TOWARD THE WARMER TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE
BECAUSE OF CLOUDINESS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE MODELS SHOW THE FRONT BECOMING MORE DIFFUSE MONDAY. THE AIR
MASS WILL REMAIN MOIST WITH INCREASED INSTABILITY AS THE WEDGE
PATTERN WEAKENS. THE MODELS KEEP THE REMNANTS OF THE FRONT IN THE
AREA TUESDAY AHEAD OF ANOTHER COLD FRONT. INSTABILITY WILL LIKELY
REMAIN WEAK MONDAY BECAUSE OF CLOUDINESS AND UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING.
THE NAM DISPLAYS SURFACE-BASED LI/S NEAR -3. INCREASE INSTABILITY
MAY OCCUR TUESDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT WITH FALLING H5
HEIGHTS. THE NAM LOWER SURFACE-BASED LI/S TO NEAR -5. EXPECT
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ESPECIALLY NEAR
THE TIMES OF MAXIMUM HEATING. THE MODELS KEEP THE DEEPEST MOISTURE
SUPPRESSED SOUTH AND EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD
AND THIS MAY LIMIT SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE. USED THE
GUIDANCE CONSENSUS FOR THE POP AND TEMPERATURE FORECAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE MODELS SHOW THE FRONT SINKING SOUTHWARD AND THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA TUESDAY NIGHT WITH THE FRONT JUST TO THE SOUTHEAST
WEDNESDAY. THE MODELS DISPLAY THE FRONT JUST OFF THE COAST WITH
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING SOUTHWARD AND INTO THE FORECAST AREA DURING
MUCH OF THE REMAINING MEDIUM-RANGE PERIOD. THE NEARNESS OF THE
OFFSHORE FRONT WITH A TIGHT MOISTURE GRADIENT ADDS UNCERTAINTY TO
THE FORECAST THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE GFS...ECMWF.. AND EKD MOS
HAVE POPS 20 TO 40 PERCENT WEDNESDAY...AND 20 PERCENT OR LESS
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. THE MOS HAS TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MAINLY MVFR/IFR RESTRICTIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

MOST OF THE SHOWERS HAVE DIMINISHED THIS MORNING WHILE OCCASIONAL
DRIZZLE WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. A NORTHEASTERLY
FLOW HAS DEVELOPED THIS MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE WEDGES INTO THE
FORECAST AREA IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. HAVE KEPT CIGS IFR THROUGH
THE EARLY AFTERNOON. THE COMBINATION OF LOWER DEW POINTS WORKING
THEIR WAY SOUTHWARD AND DIURNAL HEATING MAY ALLOW IMPROVEMENT TO
MVFR THIS AFTERNOON ALTHOUGH THIS MAY BE OVERLY OPTIMISTIC.
RESTRICTIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT
PERIOD. EXPECT FOG TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT WHICH SHOULD TAKE
CONDITIONS BACK DOWN TO IFR BY AT LEAST 15/09Z.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...PERIODS OF MVFR/ IFR CONDITIONS LIKELY
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS STALLED
ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$






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