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Area Forecast Discussion

856
FXUS62 KCAE 020409
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1209 AM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND INTO THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE ATLANTIC
THROUGH THURSDAY. A PERSISTENT UPPER RIDGE WILL HELP MAINTAIN THE
HOT TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCE IS LOW DURING THE REST OF
TONIGHT BECAUSE OF THE LOSS OF HEATING. NOCTURNAL COOLING AND HIGH
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD RESULT IN AREAS OF STRATUS AND FOG. WEAK
INSTABILITY AND DEEP MOISTURE SHOULD HELP PREVENT DENSE FOG. THE
TEMPERATURE FORECAST IS ON TRACK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
SURFACE RIDGING SHOULD CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE WEATHER ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST. EXPECT WEAK LEE-SIDE TROUGHING TO REMAIN IN THE
FORECAST AREA...SOMEWHERE ALONG THE I-20 CORRIDOR TOWARDS THE
PIEDMONT REGION. STRONG HEATING ONCE AGAIN AND WEAK SURFACE
CONVERGENCE SHOULD HELP INITIATE ISOLATED/WIDELY SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS BUT MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING/WARM MID-LEVEL
TEMPERATURES SHOULD LIMIT COVERAGE. THE NAM AND GFS MOS HAVE LOW
POPS WITH THE CONSENSUS AROUND 20 PERCENT. IT WILL REMAIN HOT.
LEANED JUST ABOVE THE WARMER TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE BASED ON RECENT
VERIFICATION. NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR EARLY SEPTEMBER ARE IN
THE MIDDLE/UPPER 80S AND LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE MIDDLE/UPPER 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW A WEAKENING FRONT STALLING BEFORE REACHING
THE AREA DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. THE MODELS SHOW ANOTHER
FRONT MAY REACH THE AREA LATE IN THE MEDIUM-RANGE PERIOD BY
SUNDAY OR SUNDAY NIGHT. THE MODELS INDICATE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING
CONTINUING AND ACTUALLY STRENGTHENING AGAIN ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
BY LATE IN THE WEEK BEFORE HEIGHTS BEGIN TO LOWER AS THE RIDGE
SHIFTS WESTWARD BY THE WEEKEND. THE GFS...ECMWF...AND EKD MOS SHOW
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH POPS AROUND 30 PERCENT THROUGH
THE PERIOD. WILL STAY WITH THIS CURRENT TREND.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS WITH MVFR/IFR
POSSIBLE DURING THE EARLY MORNING AND AROUND SUNRISE.

CONVECTION HAS MOSTLY DISSIPATED WITH A FEW SHOWERS PERSISTING
AROUND AGS/DNL. EXPECT THE SHOWERS TO CEASE BY 04Z. MAIN CONCERN
FOR THE TAF PERIOD REMAINS FOG AND STRATUS THREAT...HOWEVER MUCH
OF THE THREAT IS DIMINISHED BY CONVECTIVE DEBRIS ACROSS THE
REGION. AS SUCH HAVE REMAINED WITH IFR CONDITIONS FOR AGS AND
MVFR ELSEWHERE. FOG AND STRATUS WHICH DEVELOP WITH ERODE WITH
SUNRISE AND MIXING WITH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD VFR. EXPECT
CUMULUS TO AGAIN DEVELOP DURING THE LATE MORNING THROUGH AFTERNOON
HOURS...CONFIDENCE REMAINS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE MENTION OF
CONVECTION ATTM.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN LATE NIGHT
AND EARLY MORNING STRATUS AND FOG. SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$






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