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Area Forecast Discussion

127
FXUS62 KCAE 272345
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
742 PM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT HAS MOVED OFFSHORE. A COLD AIR MASS OVER THE NORTHERN
AND CENTRAL PLAINS WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST AND SETTLE OVER THE
REGION SUNDAY. NEAR OR BELOW FREEZING TEMPERATURES EXPECTED
LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...AS THE CENTER OF
A COLD AIR MASS SETTLES IN OVERHEAD. A FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
THROUGH MONDAY PROVIDING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. SOME MOISTURE RETURN
EXPECTED MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK AND WARMING TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
COLD FRONT WAS JUST OFF THE COAST EARLY THIS EVENING. STILL A FEW
SHOWERS TO CROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING.

HIGHLY AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN STATES THIS
EVENING. STRONG MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE SEEN ON WATER VAPOR DIVING
SOUTHEAST ACROSS ARKANSAS AT 5 PM WILL ROTATE THROUGH GEORGIA AND
THE CAROLINAS THIS EVENING. ALTHOUGH DEEPER MOISTURE SHIFTING EAST
WITH FRONTAL BOUNDARY...MODELS INDICATE SUFFICIENT LOW- MID LEVEL
MOISTURE AND LIFT FOR SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS THIS EVENING
ASSOCIATED WITH SHORT WAVE TROUGH. DECREASING CLOUDS AFTER
MIDNIGHT WITH COLD ADVECTION. BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS STAY UP AND
WITH MOS MINIMUM TEMPERATURE COOL BIAS CONFIDENCE HIGH FOR
TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING. TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE
UPPER 30S BY MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
LONGWAVE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN STATES SATURDAY. WEAK
SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS THE AREA. SOME CLOUDINESS ACROSS THE AREA
WITH COLD ADVECTION...BUT LOW LEVELS SLOWLY DRYING OUT TOWARD
EVENING. DESPITE COLD ADVECTION WITH DOWNSLOPE FLOW EXPECT
TEMPERATURES TO RISE INTO THE MIDDLE 50S MOST AREAS...POSSIBLY A
LITTLE WARMER CSRA. MODIFIED CANADIAN/ARCTIC AIR MASS WILL SETTLE
OVER THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES
AND LIGHT WINDS...CONFIDENCE HIGH FOR FREEZING TEMPERATURES ACROSS
MOST OF THE REGION...SO WILL ISSUE A FREEZE WATCH FOR SATURDAY
NIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. THE HIGHEST PROBABILITY OF FREEZING
TEMPERATURES IS OVER THE NORTHERN MIDLANDS INCLUDING PEE DEE AREA.
MOS GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES CONSISTENT WITH MID 20S NORTH AND AROUND
30 CENTRAL AND CSRA. AIR MASS MODIFIES SUNDAY NIGHT AS WEAK
WARM/MOIST ADVECTION DEVELOPS AS RIDGE MOVES OFF THE COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A FRONT IS PROGGED TO COME THROUGH MONDAY...12Z MODELS APPEAR A
LITTLE FASTER MOVING FRONT THROUGH THE REGION WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS.
DRY CONDITIONS ON TUESDAY...THEN A RETURN OF THE RAINFALL CHANCES
BY THURSDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES TOWARDS THE REGION AND
MOISTURE INCREASES. AIR MASS BECOMES UNSTABLE BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON
SO A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. A COLD FRONT MOVES TOWARD THE REGION
FRIDAY...HOWEVER MODEL TIMING DIFFERENCES NOTED AND CONFIDENCE LOW
ON DETAILS...BU ENSEMBLE POPS SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE. WARMING
TREND THROUGH THE PERIOD...AND POSSIBLY ABOVE NORMAL LATE IN THE
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR MVFR CIGS AT CAE/CUB/OGB THROUGH THE EVENING.
AN UPPER TROUGH WILL CROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT...PRODUCING MAINLY
LIGHT SHOWERS THROUGH 06Z. VFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING AFTER 06Z AS
DOWNSLOPE FLOW DEVELOPS AND MOISTURE DECREASES. AGS/DNL MAY HAVE
BRIEF MVFR CIGS THIS EVENING AS SHOWERS MOVE THROUGH...OTHERWISE
VFR CONDITIONS AT AGS/DNL.

NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS THIS EVENING EXPECTED TO SHIFT NORTHWEST
OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE MONDAY ASSOCIATED
WITH A COLD FRONT. OTHERWISE...NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS TO AVIATION
EXPECTED.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING
     FOR SCZ015-016-018-020>022-025>031-035>038-041.
GA...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING
     FOR GAZ040-063>065-077.
&&

$$





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