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Area Forecast Discussion

320
FXUS62 KCAE 301119
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
619 AM EST FRI JAN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION BEHIND THE FRONT
TODAY AND SATURDAY. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP TO OUR
SOUTHWEST AND BRING WIDESPREAD RAIN TO THE AREA LATE SUNDAY AND
MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UPPER DISTURBANCE AND SURFACE FRONT WILL BE MOVING OUT OF OUR
FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING WITH DRY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM
THE NORTHWEST. NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL BRING DRIER AIR TO THE AREA
TODAY. THE MAIN ISSUE WILL BE WIND SPEEDS. EXPECT WINDS AROUND 10
TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 TO 25 MPH. BREEZY CONDITIONS ON AREA
LAKES ALTHOUGH BELIEVE SPEEDS WILL REMAIN BELOW LAKE WIND ADVISORY
CRITERIA. DESPITE FULL SUN...HIGHS ARE FORECAST BELOW
CLIMATOLOGY...IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD ACROSS THE REGION INTO
SATURDAY. TEMPS REMAIN ON THE COOL SIDE...WITH READINGS A LITTLE
BELOW CLIMO. WITH GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS EXPECTED
TONIGHT...TEMPERATURES WILL FALL BACK BELOW FREEZING ONCE AGAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM THAT WILL AFFECT THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE
MOVING TOWARDS THE CWA DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY. MODELS HAVE
CONTINUED THE TREND OF SLOWING THIS SYSTEM DOWN SLIGHTLY. EXPECT
THE DAY ON SUNDAY TO START OFF DRY...WITH INCREASING CLOUDINESS
AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM. THE MAIN UPPER SUPPORT WITH THE SYSTEM WILL
NOT MOVE INTO THE REGION UNTIL LATE IN THE DAY SUNDAY BEFORE MOVING
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. THE
SURFACE LOW WILL TRACK NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE OHIO RIVER
VALLEY...PUSHING A COLD FRONT INTO THE SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT SUNDAY
AND MONDAY MORNING. WITH WARM ADVECTION PATTERN SETTING UP SUNDAY
NIGHT...TEMPERATURES MAY NOT DROP MUCH AND MAY ACTUALLY RISE
SLIGHTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE PRECIP MOVES THROUGH.
THE SURFACE FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION RAPIDLY DURING THE
DAY ON MONDAY...TAKING THE PRECIP ALONG WITH IT. BRIEF RETURN TO
DRY WEATHER SHOULD OCCUR FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY
NIGHT. THEN THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM WILL BE POISED TO PUSH THROUGH
THE AREA. AT THIS TIME THE MODELS DO DIFFER WITH THE STRENGTH AND
TIMING OF THE SYSTEM FOR WEDNESDAY...WITH THE GFS DEVELOPING AND
TRACKING THE SURFACE LOW FROM THE GULF NORTHEASTWARD MUCH FASTER
THAN THE ECMWF DOES. THE GFS ALSO HAS MORE OF A SOUTHWESTERLY
UPPER FLOW PATTERN EARLIER THAN THE ECMWF DOES...WHICH WOULD
ACCOUNT FOR THE FASTER SPEED OF THE SURFACE FEATURES. WITH THE
FASTER SPEED...THE GFS BRINGS THE PRECIP ACROSS THE REGION ON
WEDNESDAY...WHILE THE 00Z ECMWF IS DRIER ON WEDNESDAY. THE ECMWF
BRINGS THE PRECIP THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
STILL MUCH UNCERTAINTY. WENT GENERALLY WITH A BLEND OF THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST AND THE LATEST 00Z HPC GUIDANCE FOR NOW. STILL
MUCH UNCERTAINTY THOUGH.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE 24 HR TAF PERIOD.

COLD FRONT HAS SHIFTED EAST OF THE TAF SITES THIS MORNING WITH DRY
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN BEHIND IT. THIS COMBINED WITH DRY
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL SUPPORT SUNNY SKIES AND VFR
CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. NO FOG EXPECTED SATURDAY MORNING
DUE TO DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE.

NORTHWESTERLY WINDS AT AROUND 10 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND
22 MPH THROUGH THE DAY. NORTHERLY WINDS LESS THAN 5 MPH EXPECTED
TONIGHT.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...CIG/VSBYS RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE SUNDAY
AND MONDAY AS MOISTURE RETURNS AHEAD OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$






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