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Area Forecast Discussion

941
FXUS62 KCAE 250827
AFDCAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
427 AM EDT SAT JUN 25 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A weak cold front stalling near the south part of the forecast
area today will dissipate by Monday. Another cold front will move
into the area Tuesday and become about stationary. The pattern
supports scattered thunderstorms.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
The models show the front sinking into the south part of the
forecast area today. The front should be just south of the region
tonight. Convergence near the front supports thunderstorms but
shallow moisture and upper ridging extending into the area from
the west should help limit coverage. The NAM and GFS MOS indicated
low pops. The high-resolution models displayed scattered
coverage. Forecasted chance pops mainly near the time of maximum
heating. The NAM indicated moderate instability with surface-
based LIs -7 to -8. The thunderstorms may contain damaging wind.
Followed the guidance consensus for the temperature forecast.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
The models display a surface ridge extending from off the Mid
Atlantic coast southwestward into the forecast area Sunday. The
models depict a more diffuse front near the south part of the area
and upper ridging extending into the area from the west should
help keep moisture shallow. Weak convergence associated with the
diffuse front and possible sea breeze front plus heating supports
a small pop mainly in the south part of the forecast area. Leaned
toward the higher temperature guidance because of recent
verification.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
The GFS and ECMWF have upper ridging extending into the forecast
area early in the period with the ridging shifting farther
westward by the middle of the week. The models show deeper
moisture ahead of a cold front Tuesday supporting an increased
chance of thunderstorms. Deep moisture may continue during the
rest of the period with the front stalled near the area and an
amplifying upper trough. The GFS and ECMWF MOS have pops 20
percent or less Monday, and 30 to 50 percent during the rest of
the period. The MOS supports temperatures near climatology.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MVFR fog possible at AGS/OGB during the pre-dawn hours. Otherwise
expect VFR conditions before sunrise. High and mid level clouds
will continue. A cold front will sink southward into the area
this morning and stall over the southern Midlands or CSRA later
this afternoon. Winds will become northerly less than 10 knots
behind the front later this morning. Isolated thunderstorms
possible later this afternoon but confidence low on
location...possibly focus in the CSRA.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Diurnal convection expected through
Monday. The chance for convection will increase Tuesday as a
cold front crosses the region.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
SC...None.

&&

$$



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