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Area Forecast Discussion

798
FXUS62 KCAE 052347
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
647 PM EST THU MAR 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL BE SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA TONIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE BEHIND THE FRONT WILL EXTEND THROUGH THE AREA
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY SITUATED ACROSS THE EASTERN MIDLANDS AND
CSRA WILL SHIFT SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA BY TONIGHT WITH LINGERING
MOISTURE CONTINUING TO SUPPORT RAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY. RADAR TRENDS
SUPPORT MOST OF THE RAIN SHOWERS SHIFTING EAST OF THE AREA BY 02Z
WITH ONLY LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE REMAINING THROUGH AROUND 07 TO 09Z.
TEMPERATURES HAVE DROPPED DRASTICALLY AND QUICKLY IN THE WAKE OF
THE FRONT LEAVING A SHARP GRADIENT IN TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING. THE NAM AND GFS TIME- HEIGHT DISPLAYS
AND SREF PROBABILITIES INDICATE PRECIPITATION WILL END BEFORE
TEMPERATURES FALL BELOW FREEZING. BREEZY CONDITIONS BEHIND THE
FRONT SHOULD HELP DRY WET ROADS PLUS TEMPERATURES APPEAR MARGINAL.
STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL HELP KEEP WINDS UP OVERNIGHT 15 TO
20 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 25 MPH. OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE MAIN FRONT IS FORECAST TO BE OF THE EAST COAST BY FRIDAY
MORNING.  THERE MAY BE A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS CLOSER TO THE COAST
EARLY IN THE DAY...BUT FOR THE MIDLANDS AND CSRA CONDITIONS WILL BE
DRY...AND COLD.  THE CENTER OF THE ARCTIC HIGH IS FORECAST TO REMAIN
OF THE THE WEST OF THE AREA...ALTHOUGH A PORTION OF THE HIGH WILL
EVENTUALLY PUSH EASTWARD TOWARDS THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. BY SUNDAY.
FORECAST IS FOR DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.  COLDEST DAY
THROUGH THE SHORT TERM SHOULD BE FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE
ARCTIC AIR TRIES TO SETTLE OVER THE AREA. SOME MODIFICATION MAY
BEGIN TO TAKE PLACE ON SATURDAY...WHICH WOULD ALLOW FOR SLIGHTLY
WARMER BUT BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. THEN BY SUNDAY...READING
WILL BE BACK CLOSER TO NORMAL...WITH READINGS IN THE LOWER TO
MIDDLE 60S. OVERNIGHT LOWS THROUGH THE PERIOD GENERALLY AROUND
FREEZING.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MOISTURE AND SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO REENTER THE
REGION BEGINNING SUNDAY NIGHT...LASTING THROUGH THURSDAY.  GOOD
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING MOISTURE NORTHWARD FROM THE GULF.
THERE REMAINS SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE LONGER TERM WITH POPS.
HOWEVER WITH WEAK SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH THE REGION...ALONG WITH
THE ADDED MOISTURE...CAN NOT RULE OUT AT LEAST A SLIGHT
CHANCE/CHANGE POP THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD.  GENERALLY KEPT A
BLEND OF PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH THE HPC GUIDANCE.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WEDGE FRONT CROSSING THE MIDLANDS AT 00Z WITH NORTHERLY WIND AND
IFR CLOUDS AT CAE/CUB. THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE MOVING SOUTH THIS
EVENING REACHING OGB BY 01Z AND AGS/DNL BY 04Z...WITH CIGS BECOMING
MVFR AND GUSTY WINDS SHIFTING NORTHERLY. BUFKIT INDICATING A PERIOD
OF IFR CIGS ACROSS THE TAF SITES THROUGH 05Z.

WIDESPREAD LIGHT RAIN WILL BE EAST OF THE TAFS SITES AT THE START OF
THE PERIOD...THOUGH SPOTTY LIGHT RAIN IS STILL POSSIBLE DURING THE
EVENING.

ALL OF THE MOS GUIDANCE INDICATE CONDITIONS BECOMING VFR BY 06Z WITH
CLOUD BASES ABOVE 3000 FEET. OUR FORECAST LOOKS MORE LIKE THE
FORECAST SOUNDINGS WHICH INDICATE MVFR CIGS LINGERING THROUGH
14Z-16Z.  VFR FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON. NORTHEAST WINDS 10 TO 15 KNOTS
WITH GUST TO 25 KNOTS OVERNIGHT...BEGIN TO DIMINISH AFTER 15Z.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...CIG/VSBY RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS A WEDGE PATTERN DEVELOPS.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST FRIDAY FOR SCZ015-016-018-
     020>022-025>031-035>038-041.
GA...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST FRIDAY FOR GAZ040-063>065-
     077.
&&

$$








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