National Weather Service Weather Forecast Office

Area Forecast Discussion

833
FXUS62 KCAE 192352
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
752 PM EDT SUN MAY 19 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL COVER THE REGION THROUGH TUESDAY.
THIS WILL BRING A HIGH CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE
AREA THROUGH AT LEAST MID-WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
CONVECTION HAS DIMINISHED DURING THE LAST COUPLE OF HOURS.
HOWEVER SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING INTO WESTERN SOUTH CAROLINA AT
23Z TRIGGERING NEW CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IN THE CENTRAL MIDLANDS
IN AREA OF WEAK SURFACE CONVERGENCE AND WEAK TO MODERATE
INSTABILITY. CONVECTION MAY DRIFT TO THE EAST. MAIN THREAT HEAVY
RAIN DUE TO HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER AROUND 1.8 INCHES AND SLOW
MOVEMENT/DEEP WARM CLOUD.

OVERNIGHT...REMAINS OF THE UPPER LOW WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE
REGION WITH INSTABILITY LINGERING...WHICH LEAVE CONSIDERABLE
UNCERTAINTY. ACTIVITY WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH WITH THE LOSS OF
HEATING. FOG WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE TOWARD DAYBREAK ESPECIALLY IN
AREAS PRONE TO FOG AND WHICH RECEIVED RAINFALL. CLOUD COVER
LINGERING OVERNIGHT WILL GENERALLY KEEP OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE
MIDDLE TO UPPER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH IS PROGGED TO CONTINUE TRACKING SLOWLY EASTWARD
INTO TUESDAY. RIDGING BEHIND THE TROUGH MAY BE ABLE TO TAKE HOLD
ENOUGH BY TUESDAY TO BRING LOWER RAIN CHANCES. UNTIL THAT TIME
JUST CHANCE POPS MONDAY. ACTIVITY SHOULD BECOME MORE DIURNAL IN
NATURE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY NIGHT WITH A DECREASE IN MOISTURE.
NOT EXPECTING ANYTHING SEVERE WITH THE STORMS...JUST OCCASIONAL
LIGHTNING AND SOME HEAVIER RAINFALL. TEMPERATURES MONDAY AND
TUESDAY WILL BE DEPENDENT UPON AMOUNT AND THICKNESS OF EXPECTED CLOUD
COVER...ALONG WITH RAINFALL AREAS. MONDAYS TEMPERATURES ONLY
FORECAST TO REACH THE UPPER 70S ACROSS THE NORTHEAST...WHILE THE
CSRA MAY BE ABLE TO CLIMB INTO THE LOWER 80S. TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY MAY SEE A LITTLE MORE SUNSHINE...SO HIGHS EXPECTED TO BE
ABLE TO CLIMB INTO THE MID AND UPPER 80S ONCE AGAIN. AS FOR
OVERNIGHT LOWS...READINGS MAINLY IN THE 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE REGION WILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A DEEPENING TROUGH
TAKES HOLD ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI AND OHIO VALLEY REGIONS OF THE
COUNTRY. RAIN CHANCES INCREASE SLIGHTLY INTO FRIDAY AS THE MAIN
UPPER TROUGH MOVES EASTWARD TOWARDS THE FORECAST AREA. EXPECT
MAINLY DIURNAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.
ONCE WE MOVE INTO THE WEEKEND...A DRY SURFACE WEDGE PATTERN
APPEARS TO TAKE SHAPE AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES OFFSHORE. THE
WEEKEND MAY SHAPE UP TO BE DRY. AS FOR TEMPS...EXPECT THEM TO
REMAIN WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S AND LOWS IN THE 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
COMPLICATED AND LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST THIS PERIOD.  SHORTWAVE
ENERGY MOVING OVER THE REGION THIS EVENING RESULTING IN SCATTERED
SHOWERS NEAR CAE/CUB/OGB 00Z-03Z TIME FRAME WITH POSSIBLE MVFR/IFR
RESTRICTIONS.  ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AGAIN TONIGHT FAVORS
INCREASED CHANCES OF STRATUS OR FOG.  GUIDANCE AGAIN IN AGREEMENT
SHOWING MVFR/IFR CEILINGS DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT.  GIVEN TERMINALS
RECEIVED SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL TODAY AND DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS ARE
ALREADY LOW AM INCLINED TO INCLUDE MVFR/IFR RESTRICTIONS LATER
TONIGHT.

THINK STRATUS WILL BE MORE FAVORED GIVEN ABUNDANT CLOUD
COVER AND FORECAST 20 KNOT LOW LEVEL JET.  WILL INCLUDE RESTRICTIONS
GENERALLY 07Z-13Z WITH IMPROVEMENT DURING THE MID MORNING HOURS
MONDAY.  WINDS WILL BE LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY TO CALM OVERNIGHT
INCREASING TO AROUND 5 TO 7 KNOTS FROM THE SOUTH AFTER 17Z.
ISOLATED CONVECTION AGAIN POSSIBLE DURING AFTERNOON HEATING WITH
OGB/CAE/CUB MOST LIKELY TO BE AFFECTED BUT CONFIDENCE TOO LOW TO
INCLUDE AT THIS TIME.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...POSSIBLE THROUGH
THURSDAY. LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING FOG/STRATUS MAY BE POSSIBLE AS
WELL.



&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$