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Area Forecast Discussion

810
FXUS62 KCAE 272253
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
653 PM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE IN THE ATLANTIC WILL CIRCULATE A MOIST SOUTHERLY
FLOW INTO THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS WILL CREATE A
CHANCE OF MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH THURSDAY. DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY WITH
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURNING TO THE FORECAST FOR THE
WEEKEND AS THE NEXT FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES INTO THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE ACROSS THE
MIDLANDS...MAINLY CENTRAL AND EAST. OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES MOVING INTO
THE WEST MIDLANDS MAY TRIGGER ADDITIONAL SHOWERS IN THAT REGION.
INSTABILITY REMAINS WEAK. MAIN THREAT FROM THESE STORMS CONTINUES
TO BE HEAVY RAIN. THINK CONVECTION WILL BE DIURNAL AND DIMINISH
AFTER SUNSET. PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE TONIGHT. PERSISTENCE WITH
OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES...IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW THE UPPER RIDGE REMAINING ACROSS THE
SOUTHEASTERN COAST...WITH UPPER TROUGHING OFF TO THE WEST OF THE
REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD. AT LOWER LEVELS...A MOIST ONSHORE FLOW
WILL CONTINUE. WEAK SHORTWAVES MOVING ACROSS THE WESTERN CWA
THROUGH THE PERIOD MAY BE ABLE TO PRODUCE SCATTERED AFTERNOON
SHOWERS AND STORMS EACH DAY. WILL CONTINUE WITH GENERALLY 30-40
PERCENT POPS ACROSS THE WEST...WITH SLIGHTLY LOWER POPS EAST EACH
AFTERNOON. GENERALLY WENT WITH A MODEL BLEND THROUGH FOR
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
DURING THE LONGER TERM...BOTH THE GFS AND THE ECMWF KEEP THE UPPER
RIDGE ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. SLIGHT
DIFFERENCES APPEAR MONDAY INTO TUESDAY IN REGARDS TO THE HANDLING
OF A DEVELOPING UPPER LOW ALONG THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER AND
TENNESSEE RIVER REGIONS. THE GFS IS A LITTLE DEEPER AND MORE
CUTOFF WITH THE LOW MONDAY...WHILE THE ECMWF IS SLIGHTLY FURTHER
EAST AND DOES NOT CUT THE LOW OFF UNTIL THE TUESDAY TIME FRAME.
DURING THE PERIOD AT THE SURFACE...MODELS TRY TO BRING A BACK
DOOR COLD FRONT INTO THE REGION. THE GFS SOLUTION WOULD BRING A
DEEPER SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW...WHICH WOULD BRING GULF
MOISTURE INTO THE AREA AS THE FRONT MOVES IN. WINDS WITH THE ECMWF
WOULD BE MORE WESTERLY AND A LITTLE DRIER. FOR NOW WILL CONTINUE
TO CARRY 30-50 PERCENT POPS EACH AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES NEAR OR A
LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED AROUND THE TAF SITES WITH WSR-88D NETWORK
SHOWING MOST ACTIVITY NEAR OGB. WILL INCLUDE TSRA FOR OGB AND
WITH LOWER CONFIDENCE IN TIMING AND COVERAGE ELSEWHERE WILL REMAIN
WITH VCTS FOR THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. CONVECTION WILL
DIMINISH WITH SUNSET WITH LOW CLOUDS EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT INTO
THE SUNRISE HOURS THURSDAY. CONDITIONS WILL RETURN TO VFR THURSDAY
MID MORNING WITH CONVECTION AGAIN POSSIBLE THURSDAY LATE MORNING
INTO THE AFTERNOON. WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE SOUTHERLY AT
5 KNOTS OR LESS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...EARLY MORNING RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
MAY ALSO BRING RESTRICTIONS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND AGAIN SATURDAY
THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

&&

$$
99



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