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Area Forecast Discussion

925
FXUS62 KCAE 250540
AFDCAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
140 AM EDT THU AUG 25 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Upper-level high pressure will dominate and maintain dry
conditions through Saturday. Moisture will gradually increase late
this weekend into next week, as a low-level onshore flow brings a
slight chance of showers or thunderstorms.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THIS MORNING/...
Surface high pressure will continue to ridge into the area from
the northeast as a large upper level ridge covers the Deep South.
PWAT ranging from around 1.00 inch northeast to 1.5 inches
southwest. Dry forecast overnight. Overnight lows will once again
range from the mid 60s to lower 70s under partly cloudy skies.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Upper high center will shift to the E/NE into the W Carolinas/Srn
Appalachians. Surface high pressure along the eastern seaboard
will weaken and shift east, leaving a weak ridge axis along the
coast, while a weak surface trough slowly moves across the
Carolinas/Mid Atlantic Thu/Fri. Moisture appears limited, and with
upper high in place. Precipitation is not expected across the
forecast area through Friday night.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Models indicate upper high center will continue to shift a little to
the E/NE towards the mid atlantic coast. Behind the surface trough,
a new area of surface high pressure will build down the eastern
seaboard, with indications of low pressure, possibly tropical, well
to our south.  Result may be an easterly low level flow off the
Atlantic over our FA, gradually resulting in low level moisture
increase, and possibly a slight chance of showers or an
isolated thunderstorm.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Expect generally VFR conditions through the period, although
possible fog threat late tonight at AGS.

Upper ridge remains in place over the region.  There is a
moisture gradient across the region with dewpoints in the mid 60s
across the eastern and central Midlands to lower 70s in the CSRA
and Piedmont region. Strong radiational cooling combined with the
increased low level moisture could support a period of MVFR (maybe
brief IFR) visibilities at AGS from 08z-12z although mid level
clouds scattered to broken across the region at 05z. Scattered to
broken cumulus/alto cumulus through the day with light northeast
winds becoming east in the afternoon...less than 10 knots.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...There may be widespread stratus and
fog associated with low-level moisture in an onshore flow during
the early morning hours Friday through Monday.

&&

.CLIMATE...
The last time the temperature dipped below 70 at Columbia Metro
was the low of 61 on June 20th. Augusta Bush was last in the 60s
just last month on July 22nd with a low of 69. Augusta Daniel was
last in the 60s on June 20th with a low of 66.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
SC...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...99
NEAR TERM...99
SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM...99
AVIATION...99
CLIMATE...



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