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Area Forecast Discussion

081
FXUS62 KCAE 301005
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
605 AM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
FAIR WEATHER EXPECTED TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE REGION. WARMER TEMPERATURES THROUGH MID WEEK. A
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION LATE FRIDAY AND BRING A
CHANCE OF RAIN.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING EAST OF THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING.
SURFACE LOW OFF THE GEORGIA/SOUTH CAROLINA COAST MOVING TO THE
EAST. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS ACROSS THE AREA BUT DRY AIR
ALOFT. COULD SEE SOME PATCHY FOG THIS MORNING. CLOUDINESS SHOULD
DECREASE IN THE MORNING AS DRIER AIR ADVECTS IN ON NORTHEAST LOW
LEVEL FLOW. PARTLY CLOUDY BY LATE MORNING...MOS TEMPERATURES
APPEAR ON TARGET IN THE LOWER 80S AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
BEHIND DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
DRY AIR ALOFT AND LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MAY RESULT IN
PATCHY FOG LATE TONIGHT OTHERWISE MOSTLY CLEAR. GUIDANCE
TEMPERATURES APPEAR OK...WITH STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING...NEAR 60
MOST AREAS. WEAK TEMPERATURE ADVECTION WEDNESDAY AND MOSTLY SUNNY
SLIGHT WARMING EXPECTED...MID 80S. FLAT UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL AMPLIFY
THROUGH THURSDAY WHICH MAY RESULT IN WARMER TEMPERATURES ALTHOUGH
SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW MAY DEVELOP WITH SURFACE RIDGE OFFSHORE
AND INCREASE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO BE
SIMILAR TO WEDNESDAY...LOWS IN THE LOW 60S AND HIGHS MID 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
FRIDAY MORNING WILL SEE ANOTHER INCREASE IN CLOUDS AND PRECIP
CHANCES AS A STRONGER UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONT MOVES
TOWARDS THE REGION. STILL SOME DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE GFS AND
ECMWF WITH TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH...SO
CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN THE STRENGTH OF THE SYSTEM FROM UPPER SUPPORT
PERSPECTIVE.  MODELS ARE IN MORE AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING OF THE
SURFACE FRONT...MOVING IT THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY
EVENING...SO CONFIDENCE IS HIGHER IN REGARDS TO THE MOVEMENT OF
THE FRONT.  RAIN CHANCES WILL QUICKLY END WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE
FRONT...WITH DRY WEATHER RETURNING ONCE AGAIN FOR THE WEEKEND AND
EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD REMAIN
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
DRIER AIR CONTINUES TO SPREAD INTO THE AREA IN WAKE OF A DEPARTING
SHORT WAVE. WEAK LLJ JUST ENOUGH TO DETER WIDESPREAD FOG DEVELOPMENT
EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH MAINLY VFR/MVFR CIGS.

CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR AT ALL SITES 14Z-16Z AS DRIER AIR
CONTINUES TO OVERTAKE THE REGION. WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE
NORTHEASTERLY LESS THAN 10 KNOTS.

GUIDANCE HINTING AT POSSIBLE IFR CONDITIONS EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING FOG/STRATUS
POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE
REGION.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$






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