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Area Forecast Discussion

134
FXUS62 KCAE 210233 AAA
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1033 PM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
FAIR WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY WITH A DRY ATMOSPHERE IN
PLACE. A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY ROLL THROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY...PROVIDING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM. COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL ENTER THE REGION BEHIND
THE FRONT...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. MOISTURE RETURN
POSSIBLE LATE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE HAS CLOSED OFF OVER SOUTHEAST GEORGIA
THIS EVENING AND IS BEGINNING TO LIFT NORTHWARD IN RESPONSE TO A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
HAS DEVELOPED OFF THE COAST AND WILL ALSO LIFT NORTHWARD
OVERNIGHT. MESOANALYSIS SHOWS A STRONG GRADIENT IN PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES RANGING FROM 1.8 INCHES ALONG THE COAST DOWN TO 0.80
IN THE WESTERN MIDLANDS. THE DRIER AIR AND LOWER DEWPOINTS IN
PLACE OVER THE MIDLANDS AND CSRA IN COMBINATION WITH NORTHEASTERLY
WINDS OVERNIGHT DUE TO THE INCREASED PRESSURE GRADIENT SHOULD
PREVENT ANY STRATUS OR FOG DEVELOPMENT. COOL ADVECTION FROM THE
NORTHEAST WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO FALL INTO THE LOWER
60S...WITH A FEW OUTLYING LOCATIONS POSSIBLY SEEING THE UPPER 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
A DRY ATMOSPHERE WILL ENSURE FAIR WEATHER SUNDAY. UPPER CUT OFF LOW
AND SURFACE WAVE OFFSHORE WILL SHIFT NE IN RESPONSE TO NORTHERN
STREAM ENERGY THAT WILL DIG INTO THE MIDWEST/OHIO VALLEY
SUNDAY...AND SWING THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC MONDAY. ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH OUR NORTHERN FA LATE SUNDAY NIGHT...AND SLOWLY
ROLL THROUGH MONDAY. A DRY ATMOSPHERE AHEAD OF THE FRONT ALONG WITH
WITH NO LOW LEVEL ATLANTIC OR GULF TAP PROVIDES LIMITED MOISTURE FOR
THE FRONT TO WORK WITH. HOWEVER...WITH CONSIDERABLE UPPER LIFT
AHEAD OF THE SHORT WAVE...THOUGH MAINLY JUST TO OUR
NORTH...SLIGHT CHANCE POPS CANT BE RULED OUT...WITH ISOLATED THUNDER
POSSIBLE MAINLY S FA ALONG AND AHEAD OF FRONT DURING TIME OF BEST
DIURNAL HEATING. BLENDED A VARIETY OF MODEL SOURCES FOR POP GRIDS
USING LOCAL TOOL...GIVING SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR PORTIONS OF THE
FA. COOLER AND DRIER AIR TO FILTER IN LATE MONDAY BEHIND THE
FRONT. GUIDANCE INDICATES LOWS IN THE 50S FOR MON NT. LAST SUB 60
READING AT COLUMBIA WAS 57 ON JUNE 2.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FRONT WILL STALL OFFSHORE. E CONUS UPPER TROUGH PROGGED TO RAPIDLY
LIFT NORTH LEAVING BEHIND A CUT OFF LOW OVER THE E GOMEX...WITH
UPPER HIGH BUILDING WEST TOWARDS THE SE US COAST. SURFACE HIGH
CENTER TO REMAIN ANCHORED OVER THE NE...RIDGING DOWN INTO OUR
REGION. MODEL GUIDANCE GENERALLY INDICATES UPPER CUT OFF LOW TO
SLOWLY LIFT NORTH WITH UPPER HIGH CENTER SHIFTING SLIGHTLY
WEST...RESULTING IN A MOISTURE INCREASE FOR OUR REGION LATE WEEK
INTO THE WEEKEND. SOME QUESTIONS REGARDING TIMING AND EXTENT OF
MOISTURE INCREASE...AND WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINING
ENTRENCHED ALONG THE EAST COAST...WEDGE CONDITIONS COULD DEVELOP.
GENERALLY BLENDED ONGOING FORECAST WITH LATEST GUIDANCE.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE SC COAST OVERNIGHT
AND AWAY FROM THE REGION AFTER 12Z. MID AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS
CURRENTLY OVER THE TAF SITES WILL PUSH AWAY FROM THE TAF SITES BY
DAYBREAK WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.
WINDS HAVE BEGUN TO SUBSIDE AND BY 02Z WILL BE LIGHT AND
VARIABLE...THEN INCREASE TO WESTERLY AROUND 8 KNOTS FROM 15Z
THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. WITH DRIER AIR IN PLACE FOG IS NOT
EXPECTED OVERNIGHT.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS TO AVIATION
EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...HC




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