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Area Forecast Discussion

611
FXUS62 KCAE 251748
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
148 PM EDT SAT OCT 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THROUGH TUESDAY. ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
WV LOOP SHOWS MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST.
MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING GRADUALLY BUILDING EASTWARD INTO THE REGION.
AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL REMAIN WEST OF THE
FORECAST AREA THROUGH TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. MODEL TIME SECTIONS VERY
DRY AND EXPECT CLEAR SKIES THROUGH THE PERIOD. LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BECOME CALM BY TONIGHT. GUIDANCE IS GOOD
AGREEMENT AND HAVE GONE WITH A CONSENSUS OF THE NUMBERS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
THE DRY SURFACE RIDGE WILL REMAIN NEAR THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT. ALOFT...THE UPPER RIDGING WILL BE BUILDING INTO THE
AREA FROM THE WEST. WARMING TEMPERATURES SHOULD OCCUR AND THE
TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE WAS CLOSE. DOWNSLOPE FLOW SUNDAY AND WARM
ADVECTION MONDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE GFS AND ECMWF DISPLAY DRY HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUING TO
DOMINATE MONDAY AND TUESDAY. UPPER RIDGE SHIFTING EAST ON
WEDNESDAY AND EXPECT INCREASING MOISTURE. COLD FRONT APPEARS TO
MOVE ACROSS AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT OR THURSDAY. MOISTURE LIMITED
AND GUIDANCE SUPPORTS SLIGHT CHANCE OR CHANCE SHOWERS. FRONT WELL
EAST OF AREA EARLY FRIDAY AND UPPER TROUGH AXIS EAST OF AREA SO
RAIN NOT EXPECTED. DEEP LONGWAVE UPPER TROUGH SETS UP IN THE
EASTERN STATES SATURDAY. ECMWF SUGGESTING COLDER AIR MAY SPREAD
INTO THE SOUTHEAST. GUIDANCE INDICATING TEMPERATURES WARMER THAN
NORMAL EARLY IN THE PERIOD THEN BELOW NORMAL BY SATURDAY. TEMPERATURE
FORECAST CONFIDENCE LOW LATE IN THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MAINLY VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN WEST OF THE AREA AS IT BUILDS CLOSER TO
THE REGION THROUGH SUNDAY. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE AT THE
TAF SITES THIS AFTERNOON...BUT BECOME BASICALLY CALM BY EVENING.
WITH A RELATIVELY DRY AIR MASS IN PLACE DO NOT EXPECT ANY FOG
FORMATION AT ANY OF THE TAF SITES OVERNIGHT/TOWARDS MORNING. ON
SUNDAY...CLEAR SKIES WILL CONTINUE WITH LIGHT WINDS.

.EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...
NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS TO AVIATION EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY.
&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$






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