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Area Forecast Discussion

FXUS62 KCAE 271451

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
1051 AM EDT FRI MAY 27 2016

High pressure will remain over the forecast area through tonight.
Moisture will increase Saturday through Sunday associated with
low pressure nearing the Southeast coast.


Satellite imagery shows clouds across the area have begun to mix
out with cumulus expected to develop from late morning through the
afternoon hours...mainly over the western Midlands. Ridging will
remain over the forecast area today then begin weakening tonight
ahead of the system offshore. Moisture will slowly increase
across the region with south southeasterly winds through the
day...then backing to light northeasterly overnight. Clouds will
begin increasing toward daybreak...however any rain associated
with the system moving in from the Atlantic will hold off until
Saturday morning. Temperatures this afternoon will be in the upper
80s with overnight lows tonight in the lower 60s.


The models display moisture increasing in the forecast area in a
developing easterly flow between ridging shifting north and low
pressure approaching from off the Southeast coast. The shower and
thunderstorm chance should be on the increase, especially in the
east section of the forecast area. Followed the guidance consensus
for the pop forecast. The NAM and ECMWF indicated general rainfall
totals Saturday and Saturday night up to around 0.25 of an inch.
The GFS had more rain will totals 0.25 to 0.50 of an inch in the
east section. Followed the more consistent guidance. Used the
guidance consensus for the temperature forecast.


Uncertainty remains high in the medium-range period. The GFS
displayed low pressure from off the Southeast coast moving inland
and remaining near or in the forecast area through much of the
period. The ECMWF stalled the low near the coast and then
indicated a general northeast movement along the coast. The low
may gain sub-tropical characteristics. The slower GFS solution
indicates more of a flood threat in the forecast area. There may
also be a tornado threat as well because of tropical moisture and
possible high shear. The GFS, ECMWF, and EKD MOS support the
highest pops Sunday and Monday.


VFR conditions through the taf period.

high pressure ridge will remain over the taf sites through the day
then weaken overnight as a disturbance over the western Atlantic
moves toward the SC coast. Expect some diurnal cumulus from late
morning through the afternoon hours with clouds dissipating with
sunset. Although moisture will be slowly increasing across the
area the potential for fog overnight at AGS/OGB remains too low to
include attm.Winds through the period will be southeasterly at 8
knots or less.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Restrictions probable in showers and
thunderstorms Saturday through Monday as a system moves into the
area from the Atlantic Basin. Lower confidence in breezy
conditions Saturday and Sunday.





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