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Area Forecast Discussion

FXUS62 KCAE 281835

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
235 PM EDT THU JUL 28 2016

High pressure over the region will keep above normal temperatures
in the forecast through the end of the week. Afternoon thunderstorms
will be isolated the next couple of days...possible better chance
over the weekend into next week as moisture increases.


Upper level ridge will continue over the Southeastern states and
offshore through tonight. Instability is weak this afternoon due
to warm temperatures aloft. The focus for convection will again
remain north and west of the region, near a stalled front. An
isolated shower at best is expected with limited vertical motion.
Warm advection noted today with winds around 10 to 15 mph with
gusts to 20 mph. Mixing has promoted lower dew point temperatures
than originally forecast, so have made adjustments with latest
update. This has also resulted in lower heat index values than
previously expected with values generally around 103 to 107. A 30
knot low level jet will continue to promote mixing overnight with
low temperatures forecast in the middle 70s.


The ridge will weaken Friday as an upper trough moves eastward. A
surface trough in the area may trigger some convection as a few
shortwaves support development. Instability weak on Friday so
afternoon showers/thunderstorms should remain isolated or widely
scattered...but chance increasing over the weekend due to slightly
colder air aloft and increased low-level moisture. Showers and
thunderstorms could focus along the surface trough across region
and sea breeze front over the weekend. Chance pops mainly
afternoon showers and thunderstorms over the weekend. Weak cold
advection noted Friday although may be offset by downslope flow.
Slight decrease in maximum temperatures over the weekend although
still above normal. Also overnight minimum temperatures continue
to be above normal.


The upper ridge continues to weaken in the mid-term, which
supports a general increase in pops as shortwaves move over the
region and lee-side troughing promotes convergence. Scattered
thunderstorms expected each day as surface high pressure shifts
eastward and a backdoor front moves into the mid- Atlantic States.
The synoptic pattern supports above normal temperatures with highs
in the mid/upper 90s and overnight lows in the low/mid 70s.


VFR conditions through the TAF period.

An upper level ridge over the area will shift slightly east
through Friday generally promoting hot and dry weather. Satellite
imagery this afternoon shows a fair weather cumulus field which
should diminish by the early evening hours. Instability is weak
and moisture is shallow, thus thunderstorm development is not
expected at the TAF sites this afternoon and evening. Mostly
clear skies will return for tonight. Southwesterly winds from 10
to 15 knots with gusts around 20 knots will continue through the
afternoon but diminishing around/just afternoon sunset. Some wind
is also expected overnight with low level jet around 30 knots. Fog
is not expected tonight as another low level jet will develop
tonight and combine with the warm temperatures. Instability
appears weak again on Friday although shortwave energy may help
support isolated convection. Chances remain too low at the TAF
sites to include in current TAF issuance.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Low potential for restrictions in
afternoon and evening convection each day.





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