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Area Forecast Discussion

895
FXUS62 KCAE 231913
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
213 PM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHWARD AND INTO THE FORECAST AREA
TONIGHT. THE FRONT WILL BE NORTH OF THE AREA MONDAY AHEAD OF A
COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT AND STALL JUST OFF THE COAST
TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THIS AFTERNOON...ISENTROPIC LIFT NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT WILL
SUPPORT LOW CLOUDINESS AND FOG WITH AREAS OF RAIN OR SHOWERS
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. THE NAM LI PATTERN SUPPORTS THE WARM FRONT
REMAINING SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. THE
CLOUDINESS AND RAIN SHOULD HELP HOLD DOWN TEMPERATURES. SHEAR WILL
BE ON THE INCREASE BUT WITH A LACK OF SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY
THE SEVERE THREAT THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD REMAIN LOW.

TONIGHT...THE MAIN LOW-LEVEL AND SURFACE FLOW WILL INCREASE FROM
THE SE AND S AS A STRONG 50 TO 60 KT LOW-LEVEL JET APPROACHES.
CAPE/INSTABILITY REMAINS LOW...BUT THE STRONG SPEED AND
DIRECTIONAL SHEAR SUPPORTS A POSSIBILITY OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.
BEST CHANCE FOR SEVERE WINDS WOULD APPEAR TO BE ACROSS THE
SOUTHEASTERN CWA AND TOWARDS THE COAST...WITH THE NAM INDICATING WEAK
INSTABILITY WITH SURFACE BASED LI/S -1 TO -2 FOR A FEW HOURS EARLY
TONIGHT AS THE WARMER AIR MOVES INTO THE AREA. THE BEST TIME
FRAME FOR POSSIBLE STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AT THIS TIME
APPEARS TO BE BETWEEN 6 PM AND 11 PM. SPCWRF/HRRR/NSSL WRF ALL
INDICATE A POTENTIAL SQUALL LINE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA DURING
THAT TIME PERIOD. THE MAIN THREAT FROM ANY SEVERE WEATHER WOULD
LIKELY BE DAMAGING WINDS...BUT WITH DEEP SHEAR NEAR THE WARM
FRONT...AN ISOLATED TORNADO IS ALSO POSSIBLE. WILL CONTINUE TO
MENTION THUNDER SPREADING FROM SE TO NW THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS.
RAIN CHANCES SHOULD DIMINISH BY MIDNIGHT.  AS FOR OVERNIGHT
LOWS...DO NO EXPECT MUCH CHANGE IN TEMPERATURES ALTHOUGH THEY MAY
RISE THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS ACROSS THE NORTHERN MIDLANDS AS THE
WARM FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
MONDAY...THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW IN THE PLAINS
WILL TRY TO PUSH EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA...BUT BY AFTERNOON/EVENING
BECOMES PARALLEL TO THE UPPER FLOW AND WILL LIKELY SLOW OR STALL
ALONG THE COASTAL PLAIN OR JUST OFF THE COAST. RAIN CHANCES SHOULD
DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE DAY...WITH RAIN CHANCES
MAINLY ALONG THE COAST BY THE AFTERNOON. TEMPS SHOULD WARM UP
NICELY ON MONDAY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT AS WINDS PICK UP FROM THE
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST. IT WILL BE BREEZY AT TIMES THROUGH THE DAY...BUT
NOT STRONG ENOUGH FOR A LAKE WIND ADVISORY. ALL OF THE GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO INDICATES TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 70S AND WILL
CONTINUE WITH THAT TREND FOR THE DAY.

BY MONDAY NIGHT...THE FRONT WILL HAVE PUSHED ACROSS THE CWA...BUT
LINGER NEAR THE COAST. EXPECT CLOUDS AND MOISTURE TO BE CLOSE TO
THE COAST...AND HAVE DRIED FORECAST OUT FOR THE NIGHT TIME HOURS
ACROSS THE CWA...WITH BEST RAIN CHANCES EAST OF THE CWA. OVERNIGHT
LOWS WILL FALL INTO THE 40S.

FOR TUESDAY THE LATEST MODELS BEGIN TO SHIFT THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH
AXIS EASTWARD AS ENERGY DIGS INTO THE BASE OF THE TROUGH ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. BEST CHANCE FOR ANY RAINFALL SHOULD STILL BE
ALONG THE COAST THROUGH THE DAY...WITH SOME INLAND PROGRESSION
POSSIBLE BY THE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE EAST. WITH THE RAINFALL AND
CLOUDS INCREASING...TEMPERATURES WILL COOL BACK DOWN FOR AFTERNOON
HIGHS...WITH READINGS MAINLY IN THE UPPER 50S.

BY TUE NIGHT...THE MODELS CONTINUE MOVING THE UPPER TROUGH
EASTWARD THROUGH THE SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION...AND IN
RESPONSE TO THE APPROACHING TROUGH...A SURFACE LOW IS FORECAST TO
DEVELOP OFF THE CAROLINA COAST ALONG THE OLD COLD FRONT. AS THE
LOW DEVELOPS...MOISTURE AND PRECIP WILL SPREAD INLAND DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS.

ON WEDNESDAY...THE UPPER TROUGH WILL PUSH TOWARDS AND THROUGH THE
REGION...WHILE THE SURFACE LOW BEGINS MOVING NORTHWARD ALONG THE
COAST IN RESPONSE TO THE UPPER TROUGH. WRAP AROUND MOISTURE AND
PRECIP BEHIND THE SURFACE LOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION.
CONTINUED WITH COOL TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY BECAUSE OF CLOUDS
AND EXPECTED PRECIPITATION AND SURFACE WINDS FROM THE
NORTH/NORTHWEST.

BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MODELS SHOW THE SYSTEM PULLING OUT TO THE
NORTHEAST AND AWAY FROM THE REGION. CONDITIONS WILL DRY OUT BEHIND
THE SYSTEM AND COLDER AIR WILL ONCE AGAIN SETTLE INTO THE AREA.
OVERNIGHT LOWS BACK DOWN TO AROUND FREEZING.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ONCE WE GET INTO THANKSGIVING AND THE WEEKEND...CONDITIONS QUIET
DOWN AND DRY OUT AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE AREA...AND THE
UPPER PATTERN FLATTENS OUT. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN BELOW
NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
EXPECT IFR OR LIFR CONDITIONS THROUGH MUCH OF THE TAF PERIOD.
THE AREA WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT THIS AFTERNOON WITH
WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDINESS AND FOG WITH AREAS OF RAIN OR SHOWERS.
THE FRONT MAY LIFT NORTH OF THE AREA TONIGHT AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR A SQUALL LINE TO
DEVELOP WELL AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH A MID-LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH. THIS SQUALL LINE COULD CROSS THE AREA TONIGHT.
SOME OF THE HIGH-RESOLUTION MODELS INDICATE A LINE OF WEAKENING
SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS MOVING INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST THIS
EVENING. WINDS ALOFT WILL BE VERY STRONG AND SOME OF THIS WIND MAY
MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE IN THE POSSIBLE SQUALL LINE OR WITH ANY
OTHER STRONGER SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS WHICH MAY DEVELOP LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. BASED ON THE NAM AND 88D VAD WIND
PROFILES WE HAVE INCLUDED LLWS IN THE TERMINAL FORECASTS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...CEILING AND VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS
MAY OCCUR IN SHOWERS THROUGH MONDAY ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT.
WIND GUSTS NEAR 25 KNOTS MAY ALSO OCCUR MONDAY. WIDESPREAD MVFR OR
IFR CONDITIONS MAY OCCUR TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY ASSOCIATED
WITH LOW PRESSURE TRACKING NORTHWARD NEAR THE COAST.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR SCZ030.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$






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