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Area Forecast Discussion

FXUS62 KCAE 272338

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
738 PM EDT MON JUN 27 2016

A cold front will approach from the west tonight and into Tuesday.
The front will move into the area Tuesday and bring an increased
chance of thunderstorms. Temperatures will cool down slightly
through the middle of the week behind the front.


The cold front will continue to push closer to the region and
guidance pops increase after midnight to the morning hours. Will
continue with best pops through this evening across the western
Midlands and CSRA...then the focus pops continue to shift farther
ewd toward daybreak. Have kept mainly slight chance/chance pops
overnight. As for temperatures...once again went just above
guidance based on current bias trends. Overnight lows should be in
the lower to middle 70s.


A weak cold front over the western Appalachians will move into
the forecast area on Tuesday while a secondary cold front
approaches from the west. Abundant moisture is expected across the
area during the day with model precipitable water values peaking
near 2.2 inches. Locally heavy rainfall may be possible with some
storms. The deepest moisture is expected to push toward the coast
Tuesday night so have likely pops during the day decreasing to
chance overnight. Models support general rainfall amounts of near
half an inch. Cloud cover is expected to limit instability and
insolation with high temperatures around 90.


Models have been consistent showing broad upper troughing over
the southeastern states through Thursday with the upper pattern
beginning to flatten out by Friday. At the surface, lee troughing
and a stationary front are expected to linger in the area Wednesday
and Thursday. Although the deepest moisture is expected along the
coast Wednesday and Thursday, ample moisture across the area
supports chance pops. The front will dissipate by the end of the
work week with the next front approaching over the weekend.
Temperatures on Wednesday and Thursday will be near climatology in
the lower 90s, while warmer temperatures are expected Friday and
Saturday in the middle 90s.


VFR should dominate through the period although a few showers possible
across the CSRA and Central Midlands through the evening hours.
Have included a vcsh for AGS/DNL through 02z, and at CAE/CUB from

Scattered cumulus and isolated showers will remain into this evening.
Weak convergent boundaries remain across the region, and the sea-breeze
is pushing into the eastern Midlands. Should still have some
lingering instability for the next hour or two, which could bring
a shower or two to taf sites through 02z. Later tonight a cold
front will be approaching, and can not rule out an isolated shower
through the night. Confidence not high enough to put in after 02z.
Afterwards, expect more high clouds with a chance of some mvfr
fog toward morning at AGS/OGB. Winds will be light and variable
through the period. A cold front pushing into the region on
Tuesday may bring an additional chance for showers and
thunderstorms through the day.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Diurnal convection possible each
afternoon through the period.





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