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Area Forecast Discussion

656
FXUS62 KCAE 221043
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
643 AM EDT FRI AUG 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG UPPER RIDGE WILL LEAD TO CONTINUED HOT CONDITIONS
TODAY. A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SW INTO THE NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL MIDLANDS SATURDAY...AND SHIFT TOWARDS THE CSRA SUNDAY.
THIS WILL LEAD TO A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...WITH TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO MORE NORMAL LEVELS BEHIND
IT. THE FRONT WILL SHIFT TO OUR SOUTH EARLY TO MID NEXT
WEEK...LEADING TO GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER WITH NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS CENTERED OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY. SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS COASTAL CAROLINA. LOW LEVEL DOWNSLOPE
FLOW WILL CONTINUE TODAY. BOUNDARY LAYER AND 850MB TEMPERATURES
SUPPORT AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES NEAR 100 DEGREES. DEW POINTS MIXING
DOWN INTO THE 60S WILL RESULT IN HEAT INDEX VALUES AROUND 105. NAM
MODEL SUGGEST STRONGER INSTABILITY THAN GFS. BUT EXPECT HIGH LFC
AND LIMITED LIFT FOR THUNDERSTORMS. BULK OF CONVECTION EXPECTED
NORTH OF THE REGION AROUND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS FORECAST THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MAIN ISSUE FOR SATURDAY AND INTO SUNDAY IS TIMING OF APPROACHING
BACK DOOR FRONT. THINK PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH SETS UP ACROSS SOUTHERN
CWA SATURDAY WITH FRONT IN EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA SHIFTING
SOUTHWEST DURING SATURDAY EVENING. MOS POP GUIDANCE LOW BUT SREF
AND MODEL QPF SUGGEST SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD
AND ALONG FRONT AS AIR MASS MODERATELY UNSTABLE AND MOISTURE
INCREASING...PRECIPITABLE WATER MAY RISE TO AROUND 2 INCHES.

WARM MAX TEMPS STILL POSSIBLE SAT AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WITH
WARMEST TEMPS FAVORING THE CSRA WHERE TEMPS COULD REACH 100 AGAIN.
WITH NAM BEING SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN GFS WITH THE BACK DOOR FRONT...THE
NAM MOS IS SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN THE GFS MOS FOR SAT MAX
TEMP...ESPECIALLY NORTH AND CENTRAL. EVEN IF TEMPS NEAR 100
REACHED AGAIN SAT...GUIDANCE STILL SUGGESTS DEWPOINTS LOW ENOUGH
TO PRECLUDE HEAT INDEX VALUES FROM REACHING OUR HEAT ADVISORY
CRITERIA OF 110F.

FRONT EXPECTED TO SHIFT SW THRU THE FA SAT NIGHT THRU SUN NIGHT.
EXPECT CHANCE POPS NEAR AND JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WITH COOLING
TEMPS ALONG AND NORTH OF IT. SO...POPS SUN AFTERNOON FAVORING THE
CSRA WHERE INSTABILITY/LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE STRONGER. HIGH TEMPS SUNDAY
SHOULD BE NOTICEABLY LESS BEHIND THE FRONT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FRONT TO PUSH TO OUR SOUTH EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK WITH SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING DOWN THE EASTERN SEABOARD...WITH UPPER RIDGE
ALOFT. SLIGHTLY COOLER AND DRIER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT ALONG WITH
RIDGE ALOFT WILL REDUCE CONVECTIVE CHANCES...TO SLIGHT CHANCE AT
BEST. TEMPS EXPECTED TO BE GENERALLY NEAR NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.

SCATTERED CIRRUS HAVE KEPT FOG FROM DEVELOPING WITH ALL SITES VFR.
DIURNAL CUMULUS WILL BEGIN FORMING LATE THIS MORNING AND PERSIST
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINING
WELL NORTH OF THE AREA CHANCES FOR CONVECTION REMAIN TOO LOW TO
INCLUDE IN TAFS ATTM. WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE WESTERLY AT
7 KNOTS OR LESS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MVFR OR IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN LATE
NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING FOG SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY. ISOLATED
AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS MAY ALSO BRING RESTRICTIONS.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$








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