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Area Forecast Discussion

015
FXUS62 KCAE 271139
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
639 AM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE COAST OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WILL CONTINUE
TO MOVE NORTHEAST. A PRESSURE RIDGE IN THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL
BUILD INTO THE CAROLINAS THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT. A FEW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED
AHEAD OF THE FRONT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL THROUGH MID
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LONG WAVE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES OVER THE EASTERN CONUS
TODAY WITH ITS DEEP SURFACE AND UPPER LOW CENTER MOVING NORTHWARD
FROM COASTAL SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE
AREA AND RESULTING COLD AIR ADVECTION. SEVERAL SHORT WAVE TROUGHS
MOVING THROUGH THE AREA TODAY ON BACK SIDE OF UPPER TROUGH.
STRATO-CU AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS AT TIMES...BUT SHOWERS NOT EXPECTED
DUE TO LIFT LIMITED/DOWNSLOPE. HIGHEST PROBABILITY OF CLOUDINESS
APPEARS TO BE IN THE CSRA. LOCAL GUIDANCE AND MET MOS COOL BIAS
SUGGEST MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S. WINDS
SHOULD BE LOWER TODAY ALTHOUGH A FEW GUST TO NEAR 20 MPH POSSIBLE
MAINLY CSRA WHERE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS STRONGER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE TO THE EAST TONIGHT AS RIDGE BUILDS IN
FROM THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. SKIES MAINLY CLEAR AND TEMPERATURES
FALLING BELOW FREEZING WITH COLD ADVECTION.

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA WEDNESDAY. VERY DRY AND COOL AIR MASS
OVERSPREADING THE REGION WITH DEW POINTS LIKELY IN THE TEENS.
POTENTIAL FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH
RIDGE OVER AREA. HOWEVER HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS AHEAD OF SHORT WAVE
TROUGH MOVING TOWARD MID ATLANTIC STATES FROM MIDWEST POSSIBLY
SPREADING INTO THE AREA LATE. FORECAST MINIMUM TEMPERATURES A
LITTLE COOLER THAN TUESDAY NIGHT...MID 20S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
MODELS COMING INTO AGREEMENT FOR SYSTEM THURSDAY EVENING
OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. GFS AND ECMWF TRACK LOW PRESSURE
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY THURSDAY
NIGHT. BOTH MODELS BRING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA
THURSDAY NIGHT HAVE INCLUDED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN THROUGH THE
THURSDAY NIGHT HOURS AS TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE WELL ABOVE
FREEZING.

COLDER HIGH PRESSURE EXPECTED TO BUILD IN FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THE
ECMWF AND GFS BRING ANOTHER COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY
INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. THE TIMING OF THIS SYSTEM AT THIS
POINT SEEMS TO BE BY MID DAY SUNDAY AND MOVING OUT BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON.

HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE LONG
TERM PERIOD WITH LOW TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL. CURRENTLY THE
PRECIP FOR THE SUNDAY EVENT IS EXPECTED TO BE RAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE FURTHER AWAY FROM THE REGION TODAY WITH
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE AREA TONIGHT. SCATTERED MID AND
UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE CROSSING THE AREA TODAY WITH
SOME STRATO-CU AROUND 5 KFT DEVELOPING DURING THE LATE MORNING AND
AFTERNOON HOURS. WINDS WILL BE NORTHWESTERLY AROUND 7 KNOTS
THROUGH 15Z...THEN INCREASE TO AROUND 10 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 15
KNOTS. WITH SUNSET WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO NORTHWESTERLY AROUND 7
KNOTS THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. WITH DRIER AIR MOVING INTO
THE REGION AND LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT FOG IS NOT EXPECTED.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT
AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$










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