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Area Forecast Discussion

523
FXUS62 KCAE 031031
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
631 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARIES...AND PLENTIFUL
ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE...PROVIDING A GOOD
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AND NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA THROUGH TODAY. SATPIX
SHOW WEAK S/WV MOVING THROUGH UPSTATE...CSRA...AND INTO MIDLANDS
WITH A FEW SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS. EXPECT THESE TO PUSH TO THE
EASTERN MIDLANDS THROUGH THE MORNING.

ANOTHER S/WV AROUND THE UPPER LEVEL TROF THROUGH THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON TRIGGERING ANOTHER ROUND OF TSTMS...SOME OF WHICH MAY
BE SEVERE WITH MAINLY STRONG WINDS. EXPECT WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS
TO BECOME GUSTING 15 TO 25MPH BY LATE MORNING WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS
AROUND 90.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE E CONUS TONIGHT AND
INTO THE WEEKEND...WITH A SERIES OF EMBEDDED SHORT WAVES PROGGED
TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO OUR NORTH AND
WEST SHOULD SLOWLY SLIP SOUTHWARD AND INTO AT LEAST THE NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE CWA THIS WEEKEND.  MODELS MAINTAIN PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES AROUND 1.6 TO 1.8 INCHES THROUGHOUT THE WEEKEND.
CHANCE TO GOOD CHANCE POPS STILL APPEARS TO BE REASONABLE. MOST
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WOULD APPEAR TO BE DIURNALLY FAVORED...THOUGH
TIMING OF SHORT WAVES AND PRESENCE OF SURFACE BOUNDARIES COULD
PROVIDE AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE AT OTHER TIMES.

BY SUNDAY NIGHT AND INTO MONDAY THE MODELS BEGIN TO SHIFT THE
MAIN UPPER FLOW TO OUR NORTH WITH WEAK SOUTHERN STREAM UPPER
TROUGHINESS REMAINING OVER THE SE CONUS/MID ATLANTIC. BOTH THE GFS
AND ECMWF SHOW AN UPPER LOW CUTTING OFF OVER THE CENTRAL APPS/MID
ATLANTIC SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. COMBINE THIS WILL A WEAK
FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT COULD SLIP SOUTH INTO OUR FORECAST AREA
DURING THIS PERIOD...CHANCE TO GOOD CHANCE POPS CONTINUE TO
APPEAR REASONABLE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH THE UPPER
FLOW PATTERN THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE LONGER TERM. MAIN UPPER
TROUGH APPEARS TO WEAKEN AND PUSH NORTHEASTWARD...WHICH WILL BRING
MORE OF A LESS AMPLIFIED AND MORE ZONAL FLOW TO THE SOUTHEAST.
AT THE SURFACE THE MAIN BOUNDARY THAT HAS BEEN ACROSS THE AREA
WILL BECOME MORE DIFFUSE. THE UPPER PATTERN HINTS AT ANOTHER
TROUGH DEVELOPING TOWARDS THURSDAY...WHICH WOULD LEAD TO THE
APPROACH OF ANOTHER SURFACE FRONT BY THE END OF THE WEEK. GENERALLY
ACCEPTED A BLEND HPC AND MOS GUIDANCE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AREA OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH
THE CSRA AND SOUTHERN MIDLANDS THIS MORNING. PERIODS OF IFR CIGS
OUTSIDE OF RAIN ACTIVITY AT ALL SITES UNTIL AROUND 14Z THEN
BECOMING VFR. ANOTHER ROUND OF AFTERNOON TSTMS EXPECTED MAINLY
BETWEEN 19Z AND 02Z TODAY. SURFACE WINDS GUSTING 15 TO 25MPH LATE
THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON AS STRONG LOW LEVEL JET AND SHORT WAVE
MOVE THROUGH.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY SHOULD SEE
VFR CONDITIONS WITH MAINLY SCATTERED AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS
AND TSTMS. POSSIBILITY OF EARLY MORNING FOG/STRATUS AT ALL
FORECAST AREA TAF LOCATIONS.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

&&

$$



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