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Area Forecast Discussion

555
FXUS62 KCAE 192100
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
500 PM EDT SAT APR 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE SOUTHEAST COAST WILL KEEP HIGH MOISTURE IN
THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. THE LOW WILL MOVE A
LITTLE FARTHER OUT TO SEA SUNDAY AS A PRESSURE RIDGE APPROACHES
FROM THE WEST. THIS RIDGE WILL EXTEND THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA
MONDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL REACH THE AREA TUESDAY AFTERNOON OR
EVENING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ALONG THE FLORIDA/GEORGIA COAST WILL MOVE
NORTHEAST OFF THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST TONIGHT. WEAK ISENTROPIC
LIFT/MOISTURE FLUX WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH A FOCUS
ACROSS THE NORTH AND EAST MIDLANDS/PEE DEE. THIS WILL RESULT IN
CONSIDERABLE LOW CLOUDINESS AND OCCASIONAL PATCHY LIGHT RAIN AND
DRIZZLE. HIGHEST POPS ACROSS THE NORTH...LOWER POPS IN THE CSRA
OVERNIGHT AND LIGHT QPF EXPECTED.

THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE OFFSHORE LOW WILL BRING
BREEZY CONDITIONS. TEMPERATURES NEAR STEADY IN THE LOW TO MID 50S
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MOS GUIDANCE LOW BIAS EXPECT
MINIMUM TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT NEAR 50.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
THE NAM CONTINUES TO BE SLOWER SHIFTING THE CLOSED UPPER
LOW/ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW AND ITS MOISTURE EASTWARD SUNDAY. USED
AN AVERAGE OF THE GFS AND NAM MOS FOR THE RAIN CHANCE. ISENTROPIC
LIFT OVERNIGHT...GRADUALLY WEAKENS THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS AND
EXPECT ANY LINGERING LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE TO BE MAINLY DURING THE
MORNING AND IN THE EASTERN MIDLANDS. STAYED CLOSE TO CONSENSUS OR
JUST BELOW FOR HIGHS ON SUNDAY WITH UPPER LOW/CLOUDS. AS SYSTEM
DEPARTS TO THE EAST...MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS IN FROM THE
WEST AND EXPECT FAIR CONDITIONS FOR SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY WARM THROUGH THE PERIOD AND
HAVE STAYED NEAR CONSENSUS FOR MAXES/MINS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
BY TUESDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST DURING THE
AFTERNOON OR EVENING. THE FRONT DOES NOT LOOK THAT STRONG...BUT
ASSOCIATED WITH A DECENT MID LEVEL S/W. AIRMASS AHEAD OF THE FRONT
BECOMES WEAKLY UNSTABLE. SO HAVE CONTINUED WITH THE MENTION OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. MOISTURE AND CONVERGENCE APPEAR
LIMITED WITH THIS FRONT. AN AVERAGE OF THE GFS... ECMWF...AND EKD
MOS SUPPORT A POP AROUND 30 PERCENT. A DRY AIR MASS BEHIND THE
FRONT WILL LIKELY DOMINATE DURING MUCH OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD.
BOTH ECMWF/GFS INDICATE ANOTHER WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO APPROACH
BY FRIDAY...BUT HAVE KEPT FORECAST DRY FOR NOW. EXPECT
TEMPERATURES TO CONTINUE TO REBOUND AND CLIMB TO NEAR/SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD. HIGHS MAINLY IN THE UPPER 70S
AND LOWER 80S WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S TO UPPER 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
IFR/MVFR THROUGH THE PERIOD.

LOW PRESSURE NEAR KJAX WILL MOVE NORTHEAST OFFSHORE OF THE SOUTH
CAROLINA COAST TONIGHT. BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION HAS SHIFTED TO
THE NORTHEAST OF THE AREA...HOWEVER WITH CONTINUED WEAK ISENTROPIC
LIFT AND MOISTURE ADVECTION EXPECT OCCASIONAL LIGHT RAIN OR
DRIZZLE THROUGH THE PERIOD REDUCING VISIBILITY AT TIMES TO AROUND 3
MILES. CONFIDENCE IS RELATIVE HIGH THAT CEILINGS WILL BE MVFR
THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING THEN LOWER TO BELOW 1000 FT/IFR THROUGH
AROUND 13Z SUNDAY. THEN CEILINGS WILL RISE SLOWLY THROUGH THE
MORNING. GUSTY NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS 15 TO 25 KTS EXPECTED.

.EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...THERE IS A CHANCE FOR MVFR OR LOWER
CONDITIONS IN CONVECTION LATE TUESDAY OR TUESDAY NIGHT AS A COLD
FRONT CROSSES THE REGION.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 PM EDT SUNDAY
     FOR SCZ015-016-018-020>022-025>031-035>038-041.
GA...LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 PM EDT SUNDAY
     FOR GAZ040-063>065-077.
&&

$$






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