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Area Forecast Discussion

071
FXUS62 KCAE 291809
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
209 PM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SUFFICIENT ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE ALONG WITH A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH
IS EXPECTED TO BRING A CHANCE OF MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THURSDAY. RAIN CHANCES ARE
EXPECTED TO INCREASE FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND AS A FRONT AND
ENHANCED ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE AFFECT OUR REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AN UPPER RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN PLAINS AND
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION THROUGH TONIGHT. WEAK SHORT WAVES MAY ROTATE
THROUGH THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ALTHOUGH LIFT
APPEARS WEAK. AT THE SURFACE...A WEAK TROUGH WILL CONTINUE ACROSS
THE CAROLINAS/GEORGIA WITH RESULTING WEAK LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE.
REGIONAL RADAR THIS AFTERNOON SHOWS SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS
MAINLY ALONG THE CSRA AND WESTERN MIDLANDS. HI-RESOLUTION MODELS
KEEP MOST OF THE ACTIVITY IN THIS AREA THROUGH TONIGHT. MODELS
KEEP THE BEST MOISTURE WEST AND SOUTH WITH DRIER AIR EAST. PWAT
VALUES SOUTH AND WEST ARE JUST OVER 2.0 INCHES THUS LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE. AIR MASS IS WEAKLY TO MODERATELY UNSTABLE
THIS AFTERNOON WITH LIFTED INDEX VALUES AROUND -2 TO -6. HAVE
CONTINUED MAINLY CHANCE POPS WITH FOCUS ACROSS THE WEST. OVERNIGHT
LOWS ARE FORECAST IN THE LOW TO MID 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
UPPER HIGH WILL REMAIN CENTERED TO OUR WEST WITH UPPER TROUGH
ALONG THE EAST COAST. WEAKENING UPPER LOW AND STALLED FRONT TO
REMAIN TO OUR SOUTH. AN UPPER IMPULSE OR TWO ALONG WITH A WEAK
SURFACE TROUGH...SEA BREEZE...OR OTHER BOUNDARIES AND SUFFICIENT
ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO LEAD TO A CHANCE OF MAINLY
DIURNAL CONVECTION THROUGH THURSDAY. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SHIFTING
WEST THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY WITH DEEPENING UPPER TROUGH OVER THE
EASTERN STATES. A FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SLOWLY SOUTHEAST INTO
THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY. DIFFERENCES NOTED IN THE MODELS
WITH GFS/NAM FOCUS CONVECTION CLOSER TO THE COAST...WITH DRIER AIR
FILTERING INTO THE PIEDMONT. ECMWF/SREF SUGGEST FRONT BECOMES
NEARLY STATIONARY CLOSER TO THE MIDLANDS. SCATTERED CONVECTION MAY
CONTINUE OVERNIGHT THURSDAY NIGHT AS FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA. WILL
CONTINUE HIGH CHANCE/LIKELY POPS IN THE EAST AND LOWER POPS WEST
FRIDAY. ONLY SLIGHTLY COOLER FRIDAY. OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES IN THE
LOW TO MID 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
GFS APPEARS TO MOVE FRONT THROUGH FRI NT OR EARLY SATURDAY
STALLING IT TO OUR SOUTH SAT INTO MON...WHILE ECMWF APPEARS TO
STALL THE FRONT A LITTLE FARTHER NORTH OVER OUR FA. ENHANCED
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE STALLED FRONT TO OUR SOUTH MAY BE
ABLE TO GET ENTRAINED INTO THE SYSTEM. THIS AREA WILL ALSO HAVE TO
BE MONITORED FOR POSSIBLE LOW DEVELOPMENT WITH POSSIBLE IMPACTS ON
OUR REGION. CONTINUED TO ACCEPT A BLEND OF GUIDANCE AND ONGOING
FORECAST...LEADING TO INCREASED POPS FRIDAY WITH THE FRONT...AND
INDICATING A LITTLE HIGHER POPS TO THE SOUTH SAT INTO SUN.
UNCERTAINTIES LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.
SOME QUESTIONS REGARDING POSITION AND STATUS OF FRONT AND ANY
SURFACE WAVES/UPPER VORTS. MODELS SUGGEST MEAN UPPER TROUGH TO
REMAIN OVERHEAD ALONG WITH INDICATIONS OF SUFFICIENT MOISTURE.
SO...CHANCE POPS APPEAR OK FOR THAT TIME FRAME.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS TO DOMINATE THE PERIOD...WITH RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE
IN AFTERNOON AND EVENING CONVECTION.

18Z RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS SHOWERS AND STORMS DEVELOPING ACROSS MAINLY
THE WESTERN MIDLANDS AND CSRA. HAVE CONTINUED TO INCLUDE VICINITY
SHOWERS FOR ALL TAF SITES BETWEEN 19Z AND 20/02Z AND HAVE ADDED
TEMPO GROUPS AT AGS/DNL TO HANDLE THE STORMS CURRENTLY AFFECTING
THOSE SITES. SHOWERS AND STORMS HAVE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS. FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE AFTER
30/06Z...HOWEVER CONFIDENCE REMAINS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE
RESTRICTIONS IN TAFS ATTM.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...INCREASING CONFIDENCE IN RESTRICTIONS
THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY IN MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

&&

$$
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