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Area Forecast Discussion

862
FXUS62 KCAE 061020
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
620 AM EDT FRI MAY 6 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WILL
SLOWLY LIFT NORTH TODAY AND TONIGHT. COLD AIR ACROSS THE REGION
WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL AND A KEEP CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. DRY CONDITIONS AND A WARMING TREND WILL
DOMINATE THE AREA FOR THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPPER LOW OVER EASTERN NC THIS MORNING WILL SLOWLY LIFT NORTH
TODAY. UPPER LEVEL COOL POOL WITH TEMPS AROUND MINUS 23C AND
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE ROTATING AROUND THE CLOSED LOW WILL SUPPORT
SCATTERED SHOWERS ONCE AGAIN ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. WILL KEEP
HIGHEST POPS ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES...WITH SLIGHT CHANCE
FARTHER SOUTH ACROSS THE SOUTHERN MIDLANDS AND CSRA. MODELS
INDICATE STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES THIS AFTERNOON WITH LIFTED
INDICES OF MINUS 2C TO MINUS 4C. CANNOT RULE OUT SOME SMALL HAIL
AND GUSTY WINDS WITH THE STRONGER SHOWERS THAT DEVELOP.
THE UPPER LOW AND COOL POOL WILL CONTINUE MOVING AWAY FROM THE
REGION TONIGHT THUS ENDING THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN YESTERDAY...BUT STILL
REMAIN WELL BELOW NORMAL IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. KEPT LOWS
IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S WHICH AGREE WITH MODEL CONSENSUS AND
PERSISTENCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA SATURDAY AS THE
UPPER LOW FINALLY OPENS UP AND THE TROUGH MOVES OFF THE COAST.
DRY WEATHER EXPECTED. CONTINUED NORTHWESTERLY DOWNSLOPING FLOW
AND SOME SUNSHINE WILL RESULT IN WARMING TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY
WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S. MODEL CONSENSUS FOR LOW
TEMPERATURES SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S LOOK
REASONABLE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER SYSTEMS EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE FORECAST
AREA DURING THIS PERIOD ALTHOUGH CHANCES OF RAIN WILL INCREASE BY
MID WEEK NEXT WEEK. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN BY
SUNDAY.

UPPER LEVEL PATTERN ON SUNDAY FEATURES A DEPARTING UPPER TROUGH
OVER THE NORTHEASTERN STATES WITH AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND DEEPER CLOSED LOW OVER THE GREAT BASIN.
THE UPPER RIDGE WILL SHIFT EAST ON MONDAY OVER THE FORECAST AREA
AS THE WESTERN CLOSED LOW LIFTS INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND
WEAKENS. SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL MOVE INTO THE TENNESSEE/OHIO
VALLEYS EARLY TUESDAY AND LIFT TO OUR NORTH TUESDAY NIGHT. BROAD
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL PREVAIL OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE
END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD PROVIDING THE OPPORTUNITY FOR WEAK
SHORTWAVES WITHIN THE MID LEVEL FLOW TO SUPPORT DIURNAL
CONVECTION MID WEEK. A MORE ORGANIZED UPPER TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER
THE UPPER MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES AND WILL APPROACH THE FORECAST
AREA THURSDAY NIGHT.

AS FOR SENSIBLE WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS...DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH SMALL CHANCES OF DIURNAL CONVECTION
ENTERING THE FORECAST FOR MID WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE
NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND
90 DEGREES AND LOWS IN THE 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT THE TERMINALS THROUGH 12Z
SATURDAY.

COLD AIR ALOFT AND SUFFICIENT MOISTURE IN THE MID LEVELS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE WILL SUPPORT BROKEN VFR LEVEL STRATO-CUMULUS THROUGH
MUCH OF THE DAY. EXPECT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS TO DEVELOP
THIS AFTERNOON...AND PERHAPS A FEW THUNDERSTORMS AS WELL. COVERAGE
SHOULD BE GREATEST ACROSS THE MIDLANDS...SO HAVE INCLUDED VCSH AT
KCAE/KCUB/KOGB FROM 18-23Z...BUT POTENTIAL FOR ANY FLIGHT
RESTRICTIONS IS MINIMAL. WIND GUSTS COULD REACH 15-20 KT AT TIMES
TODAY.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS EXPECTED THROUGH
TUESDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$



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