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Area Forecast Discussion

387
FXUS62 KCAE 212338
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
738 PM EDT THU MAY 21 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE ALONG WITH COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE
REGION FOR FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS RETURNING TO THE FORECAST EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
THE CENTER OF WEAK LOW PRESSURE HAS SHIFTED OFF THE NORTH
CAROLINA COAST AND THE COLD FRONT HAS MOVED EAST OF THE FORECAST
AREA. SHOWER AND STORM ACTIVITY HAS ENDED AND SKIES HAVE BECOME
CLEAR OR MOSTLY CLEAR AND SHOULD REMAIN THAT WAY OVERNIGHT. COLD
ADVECTION TONIGHT. WINDS SHOULD STAY UP AROUND 5 TO 10 KNOTS
OVERNIGHT AND ROTATE FROM NORTHWESTERLY TO NORTHERLY. OVERNIGHT
LOWS NEAR GUIDANCE IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL OF THE REGION FRIDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY WITH THE HIGH CROSSING THE MID MS VALLEY FRIDAY AND
MOVING OFFSHORE OF DELMARVA SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL KEEP THE
REGION UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF COOLER AND DRIER AIR RESULTING IN A
DRY FORECAST. LOOKS TO BE A NICE START TO THE MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND
WITH COOLER AND DRIER AIR IN PLACE TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO BE
SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER THAN NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD. DAYTIME
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE
LOWER TO MIDDLE 50S FRIDAY NIGHT AND THEN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER
60S SATURDAY NIGHT. NORMAL HIGHS ARE IN THE LOWER/MIDDLE 80S/LOWS
IN THE UPPER 50S/LOWER 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD. SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE ALONG/OFF THE COAST OF THE EASTERN SEABOARD
THROUGH THE PERIOD. A LARGE AREA OF MID/UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD OVER THE SOUTHEAST SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY BEFORE
WEAKENING SLIGHTLY AND SLIDING OFFSHORE FOR WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. THIS WILL KEEP DRY CONDITIONS OVER THE AREA THROUGH
MONDAY...WITH CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURNING TO
THE FORECAST TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY AS THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS
PUSHES EAST OF THE REGION. AS THE RIDGE AXIS MOVES OFFSHORE...THIS
WILL ALLOW A SOUTHERLY FLOW ALONG WITH GULF MOISTURE TO BEGIN
RETURNING TO THE AREA. ONLY HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA/TSRA
TUESDAY AND MAINLY ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA...WITH
SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCES OF MAINLY DIURNAL AFTERNOON/EVENING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE LONG TERM WILL BE INCREASING SUNDAY
THROUGH MIDWEEK WITH TEMPERATURES RISING TO ABOVE NORMAL READINGS.
EXPECT HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN
THE MIDDLE 60S TO LOWER 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD...CONFIDENCE HIGH.

GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS EARLY THIS EVENING. REINFORCING COLD FRONT TO
CROSS THE REGION TROUGH 06Z...SHIFTING WINDS TO THE NORTH AROUND 10
KNOTS. COULD SEE SCT/BKN STRATO CUMULUS CLOUDS WITH BASES AROUND
5KFT AS THE FRONT MOVES THOUGH. HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD INTO THE
REGION FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH DIMINISHING WINDS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...NO RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

&&

$$
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