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Area Forecast Discussion

627
FXUS62 KCAE 162345
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
745 PM EDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT IN THE MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON WILL MOVE INTO THE
FORECAST AREA LATE TONIGHT. THE FRONT WILL BE IN THE COASTAL PLAIN
WEDNESDAY AND OFF THE COAST THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING
DRY WEATHER AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
THE SURFACE COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO SLOWLY PUSH SOUTHWARD THROUGH
NORTHERN NORTH CAROLINA TO NEAR ASHEVILLE INTO NORTH CENTRAL
GEORGIA. AFTERNOON CONVECTION DEVELOPED ALONG THE COASTAL PLAIN
WHERE THE SEA BREEZE HELP TRIGGER CONVECTION WHERE DEEPER MOISTURE
RESIDED...WHILE ADDITIONAL STORMS FIRED IN THE VICINITY OF THE
FRONT AIDED BY UPPER SUPPORT FROM SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING ACROSS
EASTERN TENNESSEE THROUGH THE BASE OF THE BROAD UPPER TROUGH.

CURRENT RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS STORMS ALL AROUND THE FORECAST AREA
BUT ONLY SOME PERSISTANT SLOW MOVING SHOWERS IN FAR EASTERN
ORANGEBURG COUNTY. SEVERE STORMS MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARD
CHESTERFIELD AND NEWBERRY COUNTIES WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED INTO
THIS EVENING AS THEY HAVE NOT SHOWN MUCH WEAKENING OVER THE PAST
HOUR...LIKELY DUE TO UPPER SUPPORT RELATED TO THE UPPER TROUGH.
WILL HOLD ON TO SOME CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN
MIDLANDS THROUGH 03Z AS HRRR INDICATES SOME CONTINUED CONVECTION
POSSIBLE THROUGH LATE EVENING IN THAT AREA. THE FRONT WILL PUSH
THROUGH THE AREA OVERNIGHT AND WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE POPS UNTIL
THE FRONT PUSHES THROUGH. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL LIKELY BE IMPACTED
BY ANY DEBRIS CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE STRATUS DEVELOPMENT BUT SHOULD
BE COOLER THAN TUESDAY MORNING...ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTHERN AND
WESTERN MIDLANDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE SOUTH OF THE CSRA BY SUNRISE
WEDNESDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE
NATION WILL DEEPEN THROUGH THURSDAY AS A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES
CROSS THE AREA IN THE BASE OF THE TROUGH. MODERATE INSTABILITY
COUPLED WITH THE PASSAGE OF ONE SUCH DISTURBANCE WILL HOLD A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. DRIER AIR WILL BE WORKING ITS WAY ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST...SO THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
AND STORMS WILL BE ACROSS THE EASTERN MIDLANDS. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL
BE IN THE UPPER 70S NORTH TO UPPER 80S SOUTH ON WEDNESDAY.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S.

A LARGE AREA OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE GREAT
LAKES REGION WILL BUILD INTO THE CAROLINAS AND GEORGIA THURSDAY.
DRY WEATHER IS FORECAST GIVEN SHALLOW MOISTURE AND COLD ADVECTION.
KEPT AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO MIDDLE 80S WITH
OVERNIGHT LOWS MAINLY IN THE LOWER 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL REIGN OVER THE WEEKEND. A COOL NORTHEAST
FLOW WILL BRING BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
HAVE FORECAST HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S WITH LOWS IN THE
MID 50S TO LOWER 60S.

THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL AFFECT THE AREA IN THE MONDAY-TUESDAY
TIME-FRAME. KEPT LOW CHANCE POPS MONDAY AND TUESDAY. NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 80S ARE EXPECTED MONDAY AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONT. SHOULD SEE COOLER READINGS IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S
TUESDAY AS THE FRONT PUSHES SOUTH OF THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EARLY IN THE TAF PERIOD BUT CONVERGENCE
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT MAY SUPPORT THUNDERSTORMS MOVING
THROUGH THE AREA THIS EVENING. 88D REGIONAL RADAR SHOWS A COUPLE OF
STORMS...ONE ACROSS LAURENS COUNTY MOVING TOWARD THE MIDLANDS AND
ANOTHER ACROSS UNION COUNTY NC HEADING TOWARD THE NORTHERN
MIDLANDS/PEE DEE REGION. THE HIGH-RESOLUTION MODELS INDICATED THE
POTENTIAL FOR WIDELY SCATTERED COVERAGE THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS UP
UNTIL MIDNIGHT. THUNDERSTORMS ARE STILL NOT INCLUDED IN ANY OF THE
AREA TAFS...HOWEVER WILL NEED TO MONITOR THE STORM IN LAURENS COUNTY
FOR THE COLUMBIA METRO AREA. HIGH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH
WEAK CONVERGENCE NEAR THE FRONT PLUS DRY AIR ALOFT WITH LIGHT WIND
SHOULD SUPPORT AREAS OF FOG DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS
WEDNESDAY. MOST OF THE NAM AND GFS MOS SUPPORTED IFR CONDITIONS
DEVELOPING. HEATING AND MIXING SHOULD RESULT IN SOME IMPROVEMENT
LATER IN THE MORNING AS CONDITIONS RETURN TO VFR BY 15Z.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE MAINLY DURING
THE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING IN STRATUS AND OR FOG.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...HC
AVIATION...LCV






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