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Area Forecast Discussion

FXUS62 KCAE 260235 AAA

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Columbia SC
1035 PM EDT WED MAY 25 2016

High pressure will remain over the forecast area through Friday.
Moisture may increase over the weekend associated with low
pressure nearing the southeast coast.


Generally clear skies overnight with the exception of some higher
convective debris clouds moving in from the west. Surface high
pressure continues to dominate over the forecast area providing
fair weather. Overnight lows will fall into the lower to mid 60s
with a low level jet keeping the boundary layer somewhat mixed and
preventing better radiational cooling.


A weakness in the upper ridge over our region associated with a
stalled upper impulse, along with a slight increase in
atmospheric moisture, and daytime heating, may provide a slight
chance of showers thursday afternoon and early evening mainly
across the north, and possibly an isolated shower near the S/E
forecast area (FA) near a sea breeze boundary. On Friday, the
upper ridge will build westward from the western atlantic into the
southeast conus and east coast, while an upper low remains over
the vicinity of the Bahamas. Model forecast soundings indicate mid
level subsidence inversion/cap reestablishing itself over the area
Friday, appearing to preclude significant convection.


The focus will be on the Atlantic low pressure system shifting NW
toward the SE coast over the weekend. Latest 00Z GFS and ECMWF runs
generally maintain good consistency with each other, and with previous
12z runs, through Monday, bringing the upper and surface lows towards
the SE coast where it stalls or moves slowly. GFS and ECMWF begin to
diverge early to mid next week, with ECMWF slowly taking it NE up the
coast, while the GFS shifts it inland across the Carolinas and
into the central Appalachians. At this time, it appears that the
latest GFS and ECMWF runs generally suggest that the highest
atmospheric moisture may remain mainly just to our south and east
through Monday, though GFS is the wetter solution for Tue into
Wed. For now, will go with a model blend on weather elements,
generally indicating chance to good chance showers/thunderstorms
Saturday through at least Monday, possibly continuing into
Tue/Wed. This system will also have to be monitored for possible
tropical development.


High confidence for VFR conditions through 06Z. Mainly clear
skies overnight and near calm wind as high pressure off the coast
ridges into the region.

Models indicate a 25 knots low level jet developing overnight.
Could see MVFR/IFR fog/stratus at ags/ogb late tonight. Expect any
development to begin after 06Z, with IFR possible 08Z through
12Z. By 13z should see VFR conditions at all sites with diurnal
cumulus developing for the afternoon.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Some fog possible at the fog prone sites
ags and ogb early each morning. Moisture return and associated
restrictions possible Saturday through Monday as a subtropical
low approaches the area.





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