National Weather Service Weather Forecast Office

Area Forecast Discussion

531
FXUS62 KCAE 200930
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
530 AM EDT MON MAY 20 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL COVER THE REGION THROUGH TUESDAY.
THIS WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA
THROUGH AT LEAST MID-WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
ALTHOUGH UPPER TROUGH IS WEAK...IT WILL STILL PERSIST LONG ENOUGH
TO GIVE AT LEAST A CHANCE OF MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. WITH ACTIVITY MOVING NORTH OUT OF AREA THIS
MORNING...DECIDED TO TAKE OUT POPS CENTRAL AND WESTERN PORTIONS
UNTIL ABOUT 11 AM. MORE SUNSHINE TODAY THAN YESTERDAY...SO WENT
WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH IS PROGGED TO CONTINUE TRACKING SLOWLY EASTWARD
INTO TUESDAY. RIDGING BEHIND THE TROUGH MAY BE ABLE TO TAKE HOLD
ENOUGH BY TUESDAY TO BRING LOWER RAIN CHANCES. ACTIVITY SHOULD
BECOME MORE DIURNAL IN NATURE WITH A DECREASE IN MOISTURE. VERY LOW
CHANCES FOR SEVERE WEATHER DURING THE PERIOD AS SPC HAS AREA IN
A GENERAL THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK. TEMPERATURES MODERATING INTO THE
MID 80S TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH MORE SUNSHINE EXPECTED. AS FOR
OVERNIGHT LOWS...READINGS MAINLY IN THE 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE REGION WILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A DEEPENING TROUGH
TAKES HOLD ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI AND OHIO VALLEY REGIONS OF THE
COUNTRY. RAIN CHANCES 20-30 PERCENT FRIDAY AS STRONGER UPPER
SYSTEM FINALLY PULLS A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION. DRIER
BUT ONLY SLIGHTLY COOLER FOR THE WEEKEND AS THERE IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR 12-14 HOURS OF SUNSHINE WITH FEWER CLOUDS. HIGHS
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS
IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AGAIN FAVORS INCREASED CHANCES OF
STRATUS OR FOG DURING THE EARLY MORNING.  LATEST OBS INDICATING A
MIX OF VFR/MVFR/IFR CIGS ACROSS THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. GIVEN
TERMINALS RECEIVED SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL YESTERDAY AND DEWPOINT
DEPRESSIONS ARE ALREADY LOW WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION MVFR/IFR
RESTRICTIONS EARLY THIS MORNING.

THINK STRATUS WILL BE MORE FAVORED GIVEN ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER AND
CAE VWP INDICATING A 30 KNOT LOW LEVEL JET.  WILL INCLUDE
RESTRICTIONS GENERALLY 087Z-13Z WITH IMPROVEMENT DURING THE MID
MORNING HOURS TODAY. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY TO CALM
OVERNIGHT INCREASING TO AROUND 5 TO 7 KNOTS FROM THE SOUTH AFTER
17Z.  ISOLATED CONVECTION AGAIN POSSIBLE DURING AFTERNOON HEATING
WITH OGB/CAE/CUB MOST LIKELY TO BE AFFECTED BUT CONFIDENCE TOO LOW
TO INCLUDE AT THIS TIME.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...POSSIBLE THROUGH
THURSDAY. LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING FOG/STRATUS MAY BE POSSIBLE AS
WELL.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$