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Area Forecast Discussion

973
FXUS62 KCAE 242021
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
421 PM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST WILL KEEP DRY WEATHER
ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. DAYTIME HIGHS WILL BE
SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WERE SPREADING ACROSS THE CSRA AND MIDLANDS
AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. THESE
CLOUDS WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA THIS EVENING...ALTHOUGH THE UPPER
TROUGH WILL DEEPEN AND SWING THROUGH OVERNIGHT. FROM THE WEST
OVERNIGHT. DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE
UPPER 30S TO MIDDLE 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
SURFACE RIDGE TO THE WEST EXTENDING INTO THE CAROLINAS. DRY
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT THROUGH THE PERIOD. APPEARS A WEAK TROUGH
MOVES THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY BUT MOISTURE QUITE
LIMITED...ONLY A FEW CLOUDS EXPECTED. UPPER RIDGE BUILDING IN FROM
THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AS UPPER LOW MOVES NORTHEAST OF NEW
ENGLAND. WEAK DOWNSLOPE FLOW AND WARM ADVECTION SO EXPECT WARMING
TREND. PREFER WARMER MAV GUIDANCE BASED ON COOL MET MODEL BIAS
LAST FEW DAYS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE MODELS SHOW DRY RIDGING DOMINATING DURING MUCH OF THE MEDIUM-
RANGE PERIOD. A COUPLE COLD FRONTS WITH INCREASED MOISTURE MAY AFFECT
THE AREA LATE IN THE PERIOD. WEAK FRONT WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
STRONGER FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT OR EARLY FRIDAY AS UPPER TROUGH
AMPLIFIES IN THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND EASTERN STATES. LATEST GFS
ENSEMBLE BACKED OFF ON POPS WEDNESDAY. SLIGHT CHANCE SHOWERS
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING EARLY AND WARMING AHEAD
OF THE COLD FRONT LATE IN THE PERIOD SUPPORTS ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST WITH LIGHT
AND VARIABLE WINDS. VERY DRY AIR MASS WILL BE OVER THE REGION.

.EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...
NO IMPACTS TO AVIATION EXPECTED.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$






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