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Area Forecast Discussion

670
FXUS62 KCAE 032349
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
749 PM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN TO OUR SOUTH AND WEST...WHILE AN
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH SETS UP ALONG THE EAST COAST. A COLD FRONT
AND INCREASING MOISTURE WILL BRING INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...ALONG WITH A TREND TOWARDS
COOLER TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH AND LIFT AHEAD OF A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE
TROUGH HAS HELPED SUPPORT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
WEAK LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND SOMEWHAT SHALLOW MOISTURE HAS
LIMITED COVERAGE. BELIEVE SHOWERS WILL DISSIPATE THIS EVENING WITH
THE LOSS OF HEATING AND MAIN LIFT AHEAD OF THE MID-LEVEL FEATURE
SHIFTING EASTWARD. THE TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE WAS CLOSE WITH LOWS IN
THE LOWER 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER NEW ENGLAND WILL PUSH A BACK
DOOR COLD FRONT THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA LATE FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY. GUIDANCE GENERALLY SUGGESTS SUFFICIENT ATMOSPHERIC
MOISTURE TO REMAIN OVER THE REGION...COUPLED WITH DIURNAL HEATING
TO PROVIDE MAINLY SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW END CHANCE POPS FRIDAY. UPPER
ENERGY TO SHIFT SW TOWARDS OUR REGION SATURDAY...WITH SURFACE HIGH
BUILDING DOWN INTO THE MID ATLANTIC WITH LOW PRESSURE
OFFSHORE...BRINGING A BACK DOOR BOUNDARY SW INTO OUR REGION LATE
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. THIS IS EXPECTED TO LEAD TO A TREND
TOWARDS INCREASING POPS AND LOWERING TEMPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
UPPER LOW TO CUT OFF OVER OUR REGION THROUGH MIDWEEK...WITH
UPPER FLOW BECOMING MORE ZONAL BY THURSDAY. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
FLUX OFF THE ATLANTIC APPEARS TO RESULT IN CONTINUED CHANCE
POPS...ALONG WITH BELOW CLIMO MAX TEMPS SUNDAY INTO EARLY WEEK.
GULF MOISTURE WILL BECOME MORE PREVALENT ACROSS THE AREA BY
THURSDAY. OVERALL WILL KEEP CHANCE POPS THROUGH THE EXTENDED
PERIOD. GENERALLY ACCEPTED GUIDANCE BLEND...TRENDING BACK TOWARDS
CLIMATOLOGY BY MID WEEK DUE TO UNCERTAINTIES.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MOST OF THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS DISSIPATED THIS
EVENING WITH LOSS OF HEATING. GENERALLY BROKEN HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDINESS THROUGH THE EVENING...BEFORE BECOMING SCATTERED LATER
TONIGHT. CANNOT RULE OUT BRIEF MVFR BR AT AGS/OGB TOWARDS SUNRISE
FRIDAY...WITH ALL SITES BECOMING VFR DURING THE DAY FRIDAY. SUFFICIENT
MOISTURE AND HEATING AHEAD OF A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL PROMOTE
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IN TIMING AND COVERAGE IS TOO LOW TO
INCLUDE IN CURRENT ISSUANCE. WINDS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN LIGHT OUT
OF THE NORTH/NORTHWEST THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY MORNING AND WILL
ROTATE TO EASTERLY THROUGH THE DAY ON FRIDAY.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN MAINLY EARLY
MORNING FOG. BY LATE IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD...AFTERNOON AND
EVENING SCATTERED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

&&

$$



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