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Area Forecast Discussion

782
FXUS62 KCAE 280611
AFDCAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
211 AM EDT THU JUL 28 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure over the region will keep above normal temperatures
in the forecast through the end of the week. Afternoon thunderstorms
will be isolated the next few days...possible better chance over
the weekend into next week as moisture increases.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THIS MORNING/...
An upper level ridge remains along with a weak lee-side trough
over the area. A low level jet overnight should promote mixing
with temperatures forecast in the middle 70s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
An upper level ridge will dominate Thursday with surface
low pressure developing in the Northeast. Large scale subsidence
will allow for another hot day with 850 mb temperatures near or
slightly warmer than previous days. Heat Index values will
approach 110 degrees, nearing heat advisory criteria. The chance
for showers and thunderstorms remains low with the ridge aloft
and a drier atmosphere. PWAT values will range from 1.25 to 1.5
inches. A tightening pressure gradient will allow for breezy
conditions.

The ridge will weaken Friday as an upper trough moves eastward.
A surface trough may move into the region and stall which may
trigger some convection as a few shortwaves support development.
Instability remains weak however. Temperatures both
maximum/minimum should remain above normal.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
The upper ridge continues to weaken in the mid-term, which
supports a general increase in pops as shortwaves move over the
region and lee-side troughing promotes convergence. Moisture and
the chance for showers and thunderstorms will increase late this
weekend into early next week as surface high pressure shifts
eastward and a backdoor front moves into the mid-Atlantic States.
The synoptic pattern supports above normal temperatures with highs
in the mid/upper 90s and overnight lows in the low/mid 70s.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR conditions through the TAF period.

Hot and dry air mass remains in place across the region. With a
low level jet around 25 knots currently over the area and warm
temperatures continuing fog is not expected this morning. Cumulus
will again develop from the late morning through the afternoon
hours...however thunderstorms are not anticipated. Southwesterly
winds around 6 knots will continue through 15z...then increase to
11 knots with gusts to 18 knots through sunset...finally
diminishing to 7 knots through the end of the period.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Low potential for restrictions in
afternoon and evening convection each day.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
SC...None.

&&

$$



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