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Area Forecast Discussion

157
FXUS62 KCAE 262340
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
740 PM EDT TUE AUG 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING INTO THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE NORTH WILL
BRING DRY WEATHER THROUGH THE END OF THE WORKWEEK. A WARMING
TREND IS FORECAST AS HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT STRENGTHENS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
EXTENSIVE MID AND UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL TX EAST
NORTHEAST INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC AND SOUTHWARD TO THE GULF COAST.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE FROM THE NORTH ATLANTIC
STATES THROUGH THE CAROLINAS TO THE GULF COAST. NORTHEAST WINDS
WILL BRING AN INCREASINGLY DRY AIR MASS TO THE AREA.

MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS AND CONTINUED DRY AIR WILL
ALLOW OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES TO COOL INTO THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER
60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
THE MID AND UPPER RIDGE WILL BE SUPPRESSED SOUTHWARD WEDNESDAY AS
A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES ALONG IN THE WESTERLIES ACROSS
EASTERN CANADA AND NEW ENGLAND. HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL
REMAIN IN CONTROL ACROSS THE REGION. WE CAN LOOK FORWARD TO DRY
WEATHER AND WARMING TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 90S AND
LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES THURSDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH
PWAT VALUES INCREASING TO OVER 2 INCHES BY SUNDAY. THE UPPER RIDGE
IS SUPPRESSED SOUTHWARD THROUGH THURSDAY THEN STRENGTHENS OVER
THE AREA FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. EXPECT A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. AT THIS
TIME IT APPEARS THAT THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MAINLY
DIURNALLY DRIVEN. DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE GENERALLY
ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH TUESDAY. OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE
NEAR NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
DRY HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH WILL
DOMINATE. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT BUT FOG IS NOT
EXPECTED DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS BECAUSE OF THE DRY AIR
MASS. THE NAM AND GFS MOS PLUS THE SREF GUIDANCE WERE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT MAINTAINING VFR CONDITIONS. THE MAV AND MET MOS SUPPORT
NORTH WINDS 5 TO 10 KNOTS WEDNESDAY.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING FOG WILL BE
POSSIBLE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$





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