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Area Forecast Discussion

178
FXUS62 KCAE 102108
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
408 PM EST WED FEB 10 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
IT WILL BE COLD WITH BRISK WINDS TODAY BECAUSE OF THE FLOW
BETWEEN STRONG LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE NORTHEAST COAST AND THE
PRESSURE RIDGE IN THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. THE RIDGE WILL
BE NEAR THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. IT WILL REMAIN
COLD BUT WITH LESS WIND. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP
ALONG A WEAK FRONT JUST SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA LATE THURSDAY
NIGHT. THE LOW WILL BE NEAR THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST EARLY FRIDAY
AND FARTHER OFF THE COAST FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
THE TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN STRONG LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE
NORTHEAST COAST AND THE PRESSURE RIDGE IN THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY WILL RESULT IN COLD AND BREEZY CONDITIONS TODAY. THE GFS
LAMP AND NAM BUFKIT MOMENTUM TRANSFER TOOL SUPPORTS GUSTS OF 23
TO 20 KNOTS. WE HAVE POSTED A LAKE WIND ADVISORY. USED THE
GUIDANCE CONSENSUS FOR THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST. WIND CHILL VALUES
WILL BE GENERALLY IN THE TEENS THIS MORNING AND MIDDLE 20S TO
MIDDLE 30S THIS AFTERNOON...ABOVE THE WIND CHILL ADVISORY CRITERIA
OF 5. LESS WIND WILL OCCUR TONIGHT AS THE PRESSURE RIDGE GETS
CLOSER TO THE FORECAST AREA AND THE GRADIENT RELAXES. EXPECT
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. IT WILL BE COLD. THE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS
SUPPORTS LOWS IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 20S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A SURFACE RIDGE WILL KEEP DRY CONDITIONS IN THE FORECAST AREA
THURSDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE BROAD
TROUGH LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. MODELS DEVELOP WEAK LOW
PRESSURE JUST SOUTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. RECENT MODEL TRENDS
HAVE BEEN DRIER WITH MUCH OF THE DEEP MOISTURE TO THE EAST. THE
TIMING OF THE SYSTEM DOES NOT FAVOR FROZEN PRECIP WITH MOST OF
THE MODELS PRODUCING THE BEST MOISTURE LATE FRIDAY MORNING.
HOWEVER THE NAM IS A LITTLE QUICKER TO DEVELOP THE LOW WHICH MAY
BRING PRECIPITATION TYPE ISSUES ALONG THE EXTREME EASTERN MIDLANDS
IF VERIFIES.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A DRY AIRMASS MOVES BACK INTO THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY NIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BE IN PLACE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. THE MODELS SHOW
THE RIDGE SHIFTING OFF THE COAST FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH A
FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE FORECAST AREA. COLD AIR IN THE
LOWER LEVELS WILL LINGER AS WARM ADVECTION OVER THE HIGH PRESSURE
MAY ALLOW FOR WEDGE CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP MONDAY. PRECIPITATION
TYPE MAY BE A CONCERN DEPENDING ON HOW LONG THE COLD AIR STAYS
IN. THE CANADIAN MODEL HAS THE COLDEST SURFACE WETBULB TEMPS DUE
TO MUCH DRIER LOW LEVELS. SOUNDING PROFILES SUGGEST THE
POSSIBILITY FOR FREEZING RAIN OR SLEET EARLY MONDAY MORNING IN THE
NORTHERN MIDLANDS. HOWEVER WITH MODEL SURFACE TEMPERATURES
VARYING GREATLY THERE IS NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO INCLUDE FROZEN
PRECIPITATION AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD.

TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL RELAX TONIGHT ALLOWING WINDS TO
DIMINISH. WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS 15 TO 20 KNOTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 30
KNOTS WILL SUBSIDE TO AROUND 10 KNOTS AFTER SUNSET. SKIES WILL
REMAIN CLEAR.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AFFECTS THE REGION.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR GAZ040-
     063>065-077.
SC...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR SCZ015-016-
     018-020>022-025>031-035>038-041.

&&

$$



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