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Area Forecast Discussion

308
FXUS62 KCAE 020006
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
806 PM EDT FRI AUG 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF
THE COUNTRY INTO NEXT WEEK. AN EASTERLY WIND FLOW WILL CONTINUE
TO BRING ABUNDANT MOISTURE ALONG WITH A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN A FEW
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
RAIN SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE ACROSS THE
EASTERN MIDLANDS WITH THE IN SITU WEDGE ACROSS THE NORTHERN
MIDLANDS INTO UPSTATE AND WEAK TROUGH ALONG THE COAST. PWAT VALUES
WILL REMAIN AOA 1.8 INCHES OVERNIGHT WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY
RAIN CONTINUING. CELLS CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHEASTWARD WHICH HAS
ELIMINATED FLOODING...HOWEVER SOME LOCATIONS ACROSS THE EASTERN
MIDLANDS HAVE SEEN BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL OF AROUND 1 INCH. EXPECT
THE SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS...WITH CHANCES INCREASING IN THE WESTERN MIDLANDS
AND CSRA AS AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE MOVES INTO THE REGION. WITH
THE EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S
TO LOWER 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL REMAIN TO OUR WEST...WITH A MOIST ATMOSPHERE
REMAINING IN PLACE. IT APPEARS THE FRONT AND AXIS OF BEST
MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL GENERALLY REMAIN ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN CAROLINAS...WITH WEAK IN SITU WEDGE ACROSS THE WESTERN
CAROLINAS. PWAT VALUES WILL REMAIN CLOSE TO 2.0 INCHES THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. GUIDANCE POPS CONTINUE HIGH THROUGH THE PERIOD. HIGHS WILL
BE IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 80S WITH LOWS AROUND 70.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE FIRST PORTION OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST REMAINS UNSETTLED AND WET
WITH AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION PROMOTING
DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEKEND WITH WEAK ONSHORE FLOW FROM THE ATLANTIC. THE UPPER FLOW
BECOMES MORE ZONAL LATER IN THE WEEK WITH DECREASING CHANCES OF
RAIN. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES REMAIN AROUND 2.0 INCHES OR GREATER
MONDAY...DECREASING TO LESS THAN 1.70 INCHES TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY...THEN INCREASING AGAIN FRIDAY. CHANCES FOR RAIN REMAIN
HIGH CHANCE MONDAY...DECREASING TO LOW CHANCE BY
WEDNESDAY...INCREASING TO CHANCE FRIDAY AS A FRONT APPROACHES FROM
THE NORTH. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE BELOW NORMAL THROUGH
MUCH OF THE EXTENDED WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S THROUGH
TUESDAY...AROUND 90 WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...AND LOWER 90S FRIDAY.
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MVFR CEILINGS HAVE ALREADY DEVELOPED AT MOST OF THE TAF SITES THIS
EVENING AND ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD.
CEILINGS ARE FORECAST TO DETERIORATE TO IFR DURING THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS ON SATURDAY WITH MVFR VISIBILITIES. SOME
IMPROVEMENT 15Z-18Z SATURDAY.

A FEW SHOWERS COULD CROSS THE TAF SITES DURING THE OVERNIGHT
PERIOD SO HAVE INCLUDED VCSH FOR NOW AND WILL UPDATE AS CONFIDENCE
IN TIMING IMPROVES. AN ONSHORE EASTERLY WIND FLOW WILL CONTINUE
TO BRING ABUNDANT MOISTURE TO THE AREA ON SATURDAY WITH SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS
ARE POSSIBLE AT TIMES FROM SATURDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY DUE TO A
MOIST EASTERLY FLOW OFF THE ATLANTIC.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$






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