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Area Forecast Discussion

464
FXUS62 KCAE 280739
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
339 AM EDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN STALLED NEAR THE COAST TODAY. A
LARGE AREA OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES
REGION WILL SLIDE EAST TO THE ATLANTIC COAST FOR THE WEEKEND.
INCREASING ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE WILL DRIFT NORTH INTO OUR REGION
THIS WEEKEND. TROPICAL CYCLONE ERIKA IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH
SOUTHERN FLORIDA ON SUNDAY. REFER TO THE LATEST ADVISORY ON ERIKA
ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
EARLY THIS MORNING...LOW CLOUDS HAVE BEGUN TO DEVELOP EARLY THIS
MORNING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA
GIVEN DRY AIR ALOFT. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL ONCE AGAIN RANGE FROM THE
MID 60S TO THE LOWER 70S.

TODAY...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE OHIO RIVER
VALLEY TO THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL WEAKEN AND LIFT NORTH TODAY. THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN STALLED NEAR THE COAST.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO RIDGE IN FROM THE NORTH
PRODUCING NORTHEASTERLY/EASTERLY FLOW. MODELS SHOW A STRONG
GRADIENT IN PRECIPITABLE WATER FROM NORTH TO SOUTH ACROSS THE
AREA WITH THE BEST MOISTURE SOUTH. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW WEAK
INSTABILITY. THE HRRR AND 00Z SPC WRF SHOW ISOLATED COVERAGE.
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS MAINLY SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA STILL SEEMS
APPROPRIATE. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST NEAR NORMAL...IN THE
UPPER 80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
MAY STILL HAVE AN ISOLATED LINGERING SHOWER/STORM UNTIL
MIDNIGHT...THEN DRY FOR ALL AREAS THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT.
MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE CWA SATURDAY. THIS MOISTURE INCREASE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
CONFINED TO THE SOUTH THROUGH THE DAY...WITH NORTHERN COUNTIES
STILL HAVING DRIER AIR IN PLACE. THIS WOULD LEAD TO THE BEST RAIN
CHANCES BEING ACROSS THE SOUTH AND SOUTH-CENTRAL COUNTIES ON
SATURDAY...WITH THE NORTHERN COUNTIES DRY OR ONLY HAVING AN
ISOLATED SHOWER/STORM. TEMPERATURES IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 60S
TONIGHT WITH THE DRIER AIR. SATURDAY WILL SEE HIGHS IN THE UPPER
80S. LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT MODERATE SLIGHTLY WITH THE MOISTURE
INCREASE...WITH READINGS AROUND 70.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
UPPER TROUGH WILL REMAIN TO OUR WEST WITH UPPER RIDGE REMAINING
CENTERED TO OUR E AND SE. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO DRAW MOISTURE
NORTHWARD INTO OUR REGION SUNDAY. EXPECTING TO HAVE CONTINUED
DIURNAL CONVECTION SUNDAY INTO TUESDAY WITH THIS PATTERN.

EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK...MODELS MAINTAIN WEAK UPPER TROUGH TO OUR
WEST AND UPPER RIDGE TO OUR E AND SE. MAIN CONCERN FOR THIS TIME
PERIOD WILL BE THE EVENTUAL TRACK AND STRENGTH OF TROPICAL
CYCLONE ERIKA AS IT APPROACHES THE ATLANTIC COASTLINE. LATEST
OFFICIAL FORECAST FROM NHC BRINGS IT NW TOWARDS THE FLORIDA EAST
COAST BY LATE SUNDAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY...STRENGTHENING IT TO A
LOW END HURRICANE. THERE CONTINUES TO BE LITTLE RUN TO RUN
CONSISTENCE WITH THE LONGER RANGE MODELS...ESPECIALLY WITH THE
TRACK...AND WITH THE LARGE MODEL SPREAD...CONFIDENCE IS LOW OUT IN
THE LONG TERM. PLEASE SEE THE NHC FORECAST FOR LATEST DISCUSSION
AND TRACK OF ERIKA. FOR NOW...DUE TO UNCERTAINTIES REGARDING IMPACT
FOR OUR AREA...WILL CONTINUE TO MAINTAIN CHANCE POPS.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NOCTURNAL COOLING AND LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD LEAD TO STRATUS
AND FOG EARLY THIS MORNING. STRATUS IS FAVORED INSTEAD OF FOG
BECAUSE OF WIND. HEATING AND MIXING SHOULD BRING IMPROVEMENT
DURING THE DAY. LEANED TOWARD THE SLOWER NAM MOS TIMING BECAUSE
THIS GUIDANCE DID BETTER THE PREVIOUS DAY. ANOTHER SLIGHT CHANCE
OF DIURNAL CONVECTION AT THE TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...ALTHOUGH
CONFIDENCE REMAINS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN CURRENT ISSUANCE. WINDS
WILL CONTINUE OUT OF THE NORTHEAST/EAST TODAY AT 10 KNOTS OR
LESS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN MAINLY EARLY
MORNING FOG AND STRATUS PLUS AFTERNOON AND EVENING SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

&&

$$
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