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Area Forecast Discussion

304
FXUS62 KCAE 181810
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
110 PM EST THU DEC 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
THE PRESSURE RIDGE EXTENDING THROUGH THE MIDWEST WILL DIRECT DRY
AIR INTO THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH FRIDAY. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE
FRIDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKING EASTWARD ALONG THE
GULF COAST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS.  THE ONLY CLOUD COVER EXPECTED WILL BE SOME CIRRUS THAT WILL
MOVE THROUGH THE REGION.  THIS MAY HAVE A SLIGHT IMPACT ON OVERNIGHT
LOWS.  MOST GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO COME IN WITH THE MIDDLE 30S FOR
MOST AREAS...AND SEE NO REASON WHY THIS SHOULD NOT BE CLOSE TO WHAT
OCCURS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
THE MODELS MAINTAIN THE DRY AIR MASS FRIDAY BUT SHOW AN INCREASE
IN MOISTURE FRIDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE EXPECTED TO TRACK
ALONG THE GULF COAST. THE NAM...GFS...AND ECMWF MOS HAVE POPS LESS
THAN 10 PERCENT THROUGH FRIDAY WITH THE CHANCE INCREASING FROM
WEST TO EAST FRIDAY NIGHT. THE MODELS HAVE TRENDED SLOWER MOVING
DEEPER MOISTURE INTO THE FORECAST AREA. ISENTROPIC LIFT APPEARS
WEAK AND MODELS HAVE ALSO BACKED OFF ON THE POPS FOR THE AREA ON
SATURDAY. HOWEVER...STILL BELIEVE THAT IT WILL RAIN ACROSS THE
MIDLANDS AND CSRA SATURDAY. HAVE CONTINUED WITH INCREASING POPS
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AND ALTHOUGH AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
LESS THAN ONE QUARTER OF AN INCH EXPECT RAIN TO FALL OVER THE
AREA. WE FORECASTED CHANCE POPS MAINLY LATE. MODEL FORECAST
SOUNDINGS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT INDICATING LIQUID PRECIPITATION.
USED THE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS FOR THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST
FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT. EXPECT LITTLE TEMPERATURE RECOVERY SATURDAY
BECAUSE OF CLOUDINESS AND RAIN. LEANED TOWARD JUST BELOW THE
COOLER SIDE OF THE TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE MODELS HAVE TRENDED WITH MORE MOISTURE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY
WITH INCREASING ISENTROPIC LIFT OVER A WEDGE RIDGE. THE GFS AND
ECMWF MOS POPS HAVE INCREASED THROUGH THE PERIOD AND WILL CONTINUE
WITH A LOW CHANCE POPS THROUGH SUNDAY WITH INCREASING POPS FOR
MONDAY. THE TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE MAY BE TOO WARM BECAUSE OF A
WEDGE PATTERN.

HIGH MOISTURE MAY CONTINUE MONDAY AND TUESDAY AHEAD OF A WARM
FRONT WITH A DEEPENING UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IN THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY. THE WARM FRONT MAY LIFT NORTH OF THE AREA AHEAD OF A
STRONG COLD FRONT. THE MODELS HAVE NOT BEEN CONSISTENT WITH THE
TIMING OF THESE FEATURES BUT APPEAR TO BE TRENDING TOWARD COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE TUESDAY NIGHT. WINDY AND DRY CONDITIONS MAY
FOLLOW THE FRONT FOR WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH POSSIBLE EARLY
MORNING FOG RESTRICTIONS.

HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE
ONLY CLOUD COVER EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA WILL CONSIST OF SCATTERED
TO BROKEN CIRRUS. WINDS GENERALLY LIGHT THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. VFR
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA EXPECTED AT CAE/CUB/DNL.  CAN NOT RULE
OUT BRIEF MVFR VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS AT AGS/OGB...BUT CONFIDENCE
NOT HIGH REGARDING THAT AND WILL LEAVE OUT OF FORECASTS AT THIS TIME.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS RE-ENTER THE FORECASTS
BEGINNING LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AS A GULF COAST STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES
THE REGION.  ADDITIONAL RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE WITH ANOTHER SYSTEM
THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

&&

$$










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