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Area Forecast Discussion

322
FXUS62 KCAE 200155
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
955 PM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER TROUGH AND SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL SLOWLY MOVE THROUGH THE
REGION TONIGHT...AND PUSH TOWARDS THE COAST SATURDAY. DRIER AIR
WILL ENTER THE REGION SUNDAY. A DRY FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY. DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN
CONTROL EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
A LOW-LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW WITH COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT ASSOCIATED
WITH AN UPPER TROUGH MAY SUPPORT SHOWERS OVERNIGHT. THE MODELS
INDICATE H85 EASTERLY WINDS NEAR 20 KNOTS WITH H5 TEMPERATURES
AROUND -10 C. THE SHOWER CHANCE WILL BE GREATER IN THE SOUTHEAST
PART WHERE MOISTURE WILL BE DEEPER. RADAR TRENDS AND NOCTURNAL
COOLING SUPPORT LOW POPS. THE HIGH-RESOLUTION MODELS DISPLAY VERY
LITTLE COVERAGE. BELIEVE INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN WEAK SO THE
THUNDERSTORM CHANCE IS LOW. THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST IS ON TRACK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
SATURDAY...A CLOSED UPPER-LEVEL LOW OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST WILL
SLOWLY MOVE NORTHEAST. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO
WEDGE INTO THE WESTERN CAROLINAS FROM THE NORTH. SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE OFF THE NORTH FLORIDA COAST WILL MOVE NORTHEAST TO A
POSITION OFF THE NC COAST SATURDAY NIGHT. MOIST EASTERLY FLOW
AROUND THE SURFACE LOW WILL HOLD MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION EAST OF
THE FORECAST AREA. PWAT GREATER THAN OR EQUAL TO 1.50 INCHES IS
FORECAST ALONG AND EAST OF A LINE FROM SUMTER THROUGH COLUMBIA TO
AUGUSTA. THUS WILL CONTINUE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THE CENTRAL
MIDLANDS AND CSRA WITH CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE EXTREME EASTERN
MIDLANDS AS SHOWERS ROTATE AROUND THE LOW. THE SURFACE AND UPPER LOW
WILL LIFT NORTHEAST AWAY FROM THE FORECAST AREA ALLOWING DRIER AIR
TO FILTER INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST SATURDAY NIGHT. EXPECT
NORTHEASTERLY WINDS NEAR 10 KNOTS WITH GUSTS AROUND 15 KNOTS
SATURDAY. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOWER 80S WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER
60S AS SKIES CLEAR.

SUNDAY...THE CLOSED LOW OFF THE COAST WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK
NORTHEASTWARD TAKING THE BETTER MOISTURE WITH IT. H850 FLOW
BECOMES DOWNSLOPE AND PWAT DECREASES TO BELOW AN INCH WITH WEAK
INSTABILITY. HAVE CONTINUED TO INDICATE A DRY FORECAST. SUNNY
SKIES AND DOWNSLOPE WINDS SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO
THE MID 80S TO AROUND 90 DEGREES. NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER
THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE
OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS ON SUNDAY. THIS FRONT WILL MOVE INTO
THE UPSTATE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. WENT WITH CONSENSUS FOR LOWS IN THE
LOW TO MID 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL SHIFT EAST MONDAY
PUSHING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. THE GFS IS
QUICKER THAN THE NAM WITH THE TIMING OF THE FRONT. THE TIMING OF
THE FRONT WILL INFLUENCE HEATING AND THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY.
CONTINUED TO INDICATE ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE AS MOISTURE APPEARS
LIMITED AND TIMING APPEARS TOO EARLY TO BE DIURNALLY FAVORABLE.
MUCH DRIER AND COOLER AIR SHOULD REACH THE AREA LATE MONDAY IN THE
WAKE OF THE FRONT...JUST IN TIME FOR THE FALL EQUINOX. TUESDAY
MORNING LOW TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST IN THE UPPER 50S NORTH TO
LOWER 60S SOUTH. THE FRONT WILL BE WELL OFFSHORE BY TUESDAY WITH
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE OHIO
VALLEY. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL BE OFFSHORE BY WEDNESDAY WITH AN
UPPER RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION. HIGH PRESSURE OVER
NEW ENGLAND WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY WILL CREATE A STRONG EASTERLY
LOW-LEVEL FLOW OFF THE ATLANTIC. HAVE FORECAST MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES ALONG WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 70S WITH LOWS IN THE
UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH LATE EVENING THEN MVFR CIGS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE CLOSING OFF OVER THE SOUTHEAST
TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OFF THE COAST IN
RESPONSE. SOME LINGERING AFTERNOON SHOWERS SHOULD HAVE LITTLE
IMPACT ON THE TERMINALS THIS EVENING BUT WILL INCLUDE VCSH AT
OGB/AGS/DNL FOR A FEW HOURS. MODEL FORECASTS INDICATE A 25 KNOT
LOW LEVEL JET OVERNIGHT WHICH SHOULD INHIBIT FOG DEVELOPMENT BUT
MAY ALSO SUPPORT THE REDEVELOPMENT OF MVFR STRATUS CIGS. BRING
1500FT CIGS IN AROUND 07Z-08Z AND EXPECT CIGS TO RAISE BACK TO VFR
AFTER 15Z. WINDS WILL REMAIN FROM THE EAST OVERNIGHT 5 TO 10 MPH
BUT AS THE LOW STRENGTHENS OFF THE COAST ON SATURDAY...THE
RESULTING PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL INCREASE WINDS TO AROUND 10 TO 15
MPH BY 15Z. CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY SATURDAY EXPECTED TO FAVOR AREAS
NEAR THE COAST AND WILL NOT INCLUDE MENTION IN THE TAFS AT THIS
TIME.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...LATE NIGHT AND MORNING FOG/STRATUS
POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$






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