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Area Forecast Discussion

018
FXUS62 KCAE 221542
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1042 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COOL AND DRY HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO THE AREA AND
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. MOISTURE WILL RETURN TO THE
REGION LATER TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH PLENTY OF
RAINFALL EXPECTED TO OCCUR SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. A FRONT WILL
MOVE INTO THE REGION MONDAY AND IS EXPECTED TO STALL NEAR THE
COAST TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
TODAY..WV LOOP SHOWS SOME WEAK MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDING
EWD INTO THE REGION AHEAD OF DIGGING S/W ACROSS NM/W TX. AT THE
SURFACE...COOL AND DRY HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED ACROSS ERN VA/NERN
NC WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER ACROSS THE MIDLANDS AND CSRA THROUGH
THE DAY. GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES FAIRLY CONSISTENT FOR AFTERNOON
HIGHS AND WILL STAY CLOSE TO CONSENSUS.

TONIGHT...DRY WEATHER WILL OCCUR FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE
FORECAST OVERNIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE AT THE
SURFACE...ALTHOUGH THE CENTER OF THE HIGH WILL BE PUSHING EAST OF
THE CWA OVERNIGHT. WEAK SURFACE WEDGE SHOULD REMAIN ACROSS THE
AREA THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT. ALOFT...ALTHOUGH WE START OFF
DRY...CLOUDS AND MOISTURE WILL RAPIDLY BE ON THE INCREASE BY
06Z...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN CWA AS ISENTROPIC LIFT
STRENGTHENS AND MOVES OVER THE SURFACE WEDGE. MOST OF THE MODELS
INDICATE RAINFALL WILL BEGIN SPREADING INTO THE SOUTHERN CWA/CSRA LATE
TONIGHT...AND THEN WILL BE PUSHING INTO THE CENTRAL MIDLANDS
TOWARDS MORNING. WILL BE RAMPING UP POPS FORECAST AFTER MIDNIGHT
ACROSS THE SOUTH AND WESTERN CWA AS THE RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO BE
APPROACHING THE REGION AFTER THAT TIME. TEMPERATURES MAY BE
SOMEWHAT TRICKY TONIGHT. SKIES SHOULD BE PARTLY CLOUDY EARLY
ON...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW TYPICAL DIURNAL DROPOFF AFTER SUNSET. THEN
ACROSS THE SOUTH AS THE CLOUDS INCREASE LATER
TONIGHT...TEMPERATURES SHOULD BECOME NEARLY STEADY OR EVEN RISE
SLIGHTLY FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. NORTHERN COUNTIES SHOULD
CONTINUE TO FALL UNTIL LATE TONIGHT BEFORE BECOMING STEADY TOWARDS
MORNING. FOR NOW...LOWS AROUND 50 ACROSS THE SOUTH...AND AROUND 40
ACROSS THE NORTH STILL REASONABLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
BY SUNDAY...S/W WILL BE ACROSS THE LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY. LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. A WARM FRONT TO
OUR SOUTH WILL BEGIN TO TRY AND PUSH NORTHWARD THROUGH THE DAY ON
SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT. LOOKING A MODEL LI FIELDS ALONG WITH SOME
WEAK SURFACE RIDING AND SFC WINDS FROM THE NE/E FOR MUCH OF THE
DAY ON SUNDAY. THIS INDICATES AT LEAST SOME WEAK WEDGE CONDITIONS
ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL
MIDLANDS ALONG WITH THE NRN CSRA. WITH INCREASING ISENTROPIC LIFT
AND MOISTURE FLUX INTO THE REGION. ANY RAINFALL SHOULD HELP
SUSTAIN WEDGE CONDITIONS. HOWEVER...BY LATE IN THE DAY SUNDAY AND
SUNDAY NIGHT...SURFACE FLOW WILL INCREASE FROM THE SE AND S AS 50
TO 60 KT LOW LEVEL JET APPROACHES. PW VALUES WILL RISE
DRAMATICALLY THROUGH THE PERIOD TO WELL ABOVE 1.5
INCHES...APPROACHING NEARLY 2.0 INCHES...BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THIS
IS MUCH HIGHER THAN CLIMATOLOGY FOR MID/LATE NOVEMBER. WITH SUCH
IMPRESSIVE ISENTROPIC LIFT AND MOISTURE FLUX...THE RAIN WILL BE
HEAVY AT TIMES DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS
SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT. AS THE WARM FRONT TRIES TO MOVE
NORTH/NORTHWEST ACROSS THE AREA LATE SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT...THE AIRMASS ACROSS THE AREA WILL BECOME MORE UNSTABLE.
THIS IS ESPECIALLY TRUE ACROSS THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE CWA
SOUTH OF I-20. SPC DAY TWO HAS THE SERN HALF OF THE PALMETTO STATE
IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. THIS IS WHERE THE BEST
SHEAR AND INSTABILITY WILL DEVELOP. HAVE MENTIONED ISOLATED TO
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FROM LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA DEVELOPING FIRST IN THE SERN PORTION OF
THE CWA AND THEN NORTH/NORTHWEST INTO THE REMAINDER OF THE CWA.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS FROM 1 TO 2 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE BY SUNDAY
NIGHT.

ON MONDAY...THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW IN THE PLAINS
WILL TRY TO PUSH EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA...BUT BY
AFTERNOON/EVENING BECOMES PARALLEL TO THE UPPER FLOW AND WILL
LIKELY SLOW/STALL ALONG THE COASTAL PLAIN OR NEAR THE COAST. THIS
IS WHERE MODELS BEGIN TO DISAGREE ON HOW FAR THE FRONT WILL PUSH
EASTWARD. AT THIS TIME...HAVE CONTINUE TO KEEP A CHANCE OF
SHRA/TSRA THROUGH MONDAY WITH FRONT IN THE VICINITY.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES...THEY WILL BE VERY TRICKY ON SUNDAY WITH
WEDGE AND APPROACHING WARM FRONT FROM THE SOUTH. HAVE STAYED WELL
BELOW MOST OF THE GUIDANCE FOR SUNDAY WITH A TIGHT TEMPERATURE
GRADIENT FROM NW TO SE. THE HIGH FOR SUNDAY WILL MOST LIKELY OCCUR
DURING THE EVENING HOURS AS THE WARM FRONT PUSHES NWD.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE DRAMATICALLY WARMER ON MONDAY WITH BREEZY
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WITH ALL OF THE
GUIDANCE IN THE MID/UPPER 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
UNCERTAINTIES IN THE FORECAST FOR TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY OF
NEXT WEEK. BOTH THE GFS/ECMWF MODELS BEGIN TO SHIFT THE MAIN UPPER
TROUGH AXIS EASTWARD AS ENERGY DROPS INTO THE BASE OF THE TROUGH
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BY TUE/TUE NIGHT. BY TUE NIGHT...BOTH
MODELS BEGIN TO DEVELOP LOW PRESSURE IN THE GULF OF MEXICO AND
BRING A SYSTEM UP ALONG THE EAST COAST. THIS LOOKS SLIGHTLY MORE
WESTWARD WITH PRECIPITATION SHIELD THAN 12Z/18Z RUNS. DUE TO THIS
HAVE INCREASE POPS A BIT ON WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE CWA. BY THU AND
FRI...BOTH MODELS HAVE TROFINESS ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
COUNTRY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE REGION AT THE
SURFACE. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH CONFIDENCE VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 06Z THEN POSSIBLE MVFR CIGS
DEVELOPING THROUGH THE END OF THE 24 HR FORECAST PERIOD.

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CAROLINAS AND MID-ATLANTIC COAST WILL
PROVIDE LIGHT NORTHEAST WINDS THROUGH THE DAY WITH MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES THROUGH 18Z. WINDS WILL PICK UP A BIT TOWARDS 18Z AND SHIFT
MORE TO THE EAST AROUND 5 TO 10 KNOTS. HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE
LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING ALONG WITH SOME
POSSIBLE MID LEVEL CLOUDS.

DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE MOISTURE
TONIGHT AND LOWER CEILINGS WILL DEVELOP WITH POSSIBLE MVFR CIGS
ARRIVING AFTER 06Z FROM THE SOUTH TONIGHT. SOME RAINFALL
RESTRICTIONS MAY ENTER THE CSRA TAF SITES TOWARDS THE END OF THE
TAF PERIOD.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...CEILING AND VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS
ARE LIKELY IN RAIN SHOWERS LATE SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY AS
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AFFECTS THE REGION.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR SCZ030.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$







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