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Area Forecast Discussion

834
FXUS62 KCAE 261844
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
244 PM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH INTO THE REGION TONIGHT
BEHIND A COLD FRONT FOR THROUGH TUESDAY. THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH SHOWERS
FOR TUESDAY LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE ALONG
WITH DRIER AIR WILL RETURN FOR FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THIS AFTERNOON...WEDGE FRONT REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE NORTHERN
COUNTIES...WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE WEDGE REMAINING IN THE 50S.
MEANWHILE AREAS SOUTH OF THE FRONT IN THE SUNSHINE WILL REMAIN IN
THE 80S. QUITE A TEMPERATURES CONTRAST. THIS FRONT WILL SLOWLY SAG
SOUTHWARD...ALTHOUGH SOME MIXING ALONG THE LEADING EDGE SHOULD
KEEP CONDITIONS MOSTLY SUNNY AS IT MOVES IN. A WEAK
SHORTWAVE...COMBINED WITH DIFFERENTIAL HEATING ALONG THE
FRONT...COULD COMBINE TO PRODUCE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS OR
STORMS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING. A FEW COULD
PRODUCE SOME STRONG WIND GUSTS DUE TO SOME STRONG WINDS AND DRIER
AIR LOFT.

TONIGHT...WEDGE FRONT WILL PUSH TO OUR SOUTH EARLY TONIGHT...THEN
THE MAIN COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP IN FROM THE WEST BY MORNING.   ANY
ASSOCIATED ISOLATED OR SCATTERED SHOWERS OR STORMS THIS EVENING ARE
EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AND/OR PUSH TO OUR SOUTHEAST EARLY TONIGHT. COOL
AND GENERALLY DRY AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE
COLD FRONT BY MORNING...WHICH SHOULD HELP TO LIMIT POPS AFTER
MIDNIGHT. DO EXPECT LOW-LEVELS TO REMAIN WELL MIXED OVERNIGHT.
LOWS TONIGHT COOLER THAN THE PAST FEW DAYS...WITH READINGS IN THE
50S FOR MOST AREAS. BIGGEST DIURNAL TRENDS WILL BE ACROSS THE
CENTRAL AND THE SOUTH...WHILE NORTHERN COUNTIES WILL ONLY SEE A
SLOW TREND TONIGHT DUE TO THE FACT THEY HAVE BEEN IN THE WEDGE
ALREADY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY SOUTH OF THE REGION WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE WILL BE IN CONTROL OF THE AREA FOR MONDAY INTO EARLY
TUESDAY. THIS WILL KEEP PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES OVER THE AREA
FOR MONDAY INTO TUESDAY MORNING WITH MOISTURE RETURNING AHEAD OF
THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THE NAM REMAINS
AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS SYSTEM WHILE THE ECMWF AND GFS ARE SLOWER
WITH LESS MOISTURE. AS SUCH EXPECT SHOWERS TO BEGIN IN THE CSRA
EARLY TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND SPREAD NORTHWARD REACHING THE NORTHERN
MIDLANDS BY LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. AS THE LOW MOVES ALONG
THE GULF COAST TUESDAY NIGHT SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE WITH MOST
LOCATIONS RECEIVING A COUPLE TENTHS OF AN INCH OF RAIN TUESDAY
NIGHT. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE LOW TO MID 70S
WITH UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S FOR LOWS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH CUT OFF LOW SLOWLY CROSSING
FROM THE MID MS VALLEY WEDNESDAY MORNING ACROSS THE TN VALLEY
THURSDAY AND FINALLY TO THE MID ATLANTIC SEABOARD THURSDAY NIGHT.
THIS WILL KEEP THE CHANCES OF SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES EAST OF THE REGION HIGH
PRESSURE ALONG WITH DRIER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA FOR FRIDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY RESULTING IN DRY CONDITIONS WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE LONG TERM WILL BE BELOW
NORMAL ON WEDNESDAY AND SLOWLY WARM TO NEAR NORMAL ON SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE WEDGE BOUNDARY HAS BEEN STATIONARY ALONG THE NC/SC BORDER
ALLOWING FOR VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL TAF SITES. CONVERGENCE ALONG THIS
BOUNDARY HAS GENERATED A FEW CUMULUS CLOUDS ON THE SOUTHERN EDGE.
TAF SITES SHOULD REMAIN VFR FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON.
STRONG WESTERLY WINDS AROUND 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY.

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION SOUTH OF THE WEDGE IS POSSIBLE INTO
THIS EVENING. THE AIRMASS IS MODERATELY UNSTABLE BUT LIMITED
MOISTURE WILL BE AN INHIBITING FACTOR. DUE TO LACK OF CONFIDENCE AND
LOW CHANCE POPS HAVE LEFT THE MENTION OF RAIN AND THUNDER OUT OF THE
FORECAST.

A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SLIDE SOUTH THIS EVENING WITH WINDS BEHIND
THE FRONT BECOMING MORE NORTHERLY. MVFR CEILINGS ARE POSSIBLE FOR A
BRIEF PERIOD AS THE FRONT PASSES. RECENT MODEL RUNS HAVE TRENDED
DRIER ALOFT KEEPING TAF SITES IN VFR. WINDS SHOULD REMAIN UP
OVERNIGHT TO PREVENT FOG DEVELOPMENT.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS EXPECTED
MONDAY AND TUESDAY. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKING ALONG THE GULF
COAST MAY RESULT IN WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS WEDNESDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$







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