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Area Forecast Discussion

FXUS62 KCAE 280040

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
840 PM EDT SAT AUG 27 2016

A pressure ridge will remain north and east of the area through
Wednesday. A trough will be off the southeast coast. A cold front
approaching from the northwest will move into the forecast area


Surface high pressure ridging into the area from the north.
Large upper ridge centered over the Mid Atlantic will continue
over the region.

Convection ongoing across the North Midlands where instability is
greatest. Outflow boundary extending from Bishopville through
Camden and Winnsboro to near Whitmire. Clear skies across the
Central Midlands to the CSRA where the airmass is more stable and
precipitable water is 1.5 inches or less. The high resolution
models continue to show convection diminishing through midnight.
Will continue the trend for decreasing pops across the north this
evening...and dry conditions to the south. Will keep overnight
lows in the low to mid 70s as per guidance consensus.


A surface pressure ridge will remain north of the forecast area
with a trough off the southeast coast through Monday. The models
indicate a weakness in the upper ridging over the area, mainly
near the coast. Deep moisture is also displayed staying east of
the forecast area. The pattern supports scattered thunderstorms
mainly associated with diurnal heating. Followed the guidance
consensus for the pop forecast. The models depict skinny CAPE with
the upper ridging limiting instability. The severe thunderstorm
threat should be low. Followed the higher maximum temperature
guidance based on recent verification. Used the consensus for the
minimum temperature.


The GFS and ECMWF display surface troughing remaining off the
southeast coast and associated moisture staying mainly east of
the area through Wednesday. The models depict a cold front moving
into the area Thursday with the front stalling. Still, much of the
moisture is displayed east of the forecast area. The GFS, ECMWF,
and EKD MOS plus GFS ensemble mean support pops 30 percent or
less. Followed the guidance consensus for the temperatures. Expect
above normal temperatures ahead of the front through Wednesday
with near normal readings during the rest of the period.


VFR conditions are expected to prevail at the terminals through
the 24 hour TAF period, with some fog possible at fog prone
AGS/OGB late tonight/early Sunday morning.

Showers and thunderstorms near the NC/SC border are slowly
weakening early this evening with loss of daytime heating. Given
current radar trends, do not expect any of this activity to affect
any of the terminals. Some indications that stratus could develop
in the wake of the convective activity, but again appearing to
stay mainly to the NE of the terminals, so no mention at this
time. Light winds may provide fog threat, mainly at the fog prone
sites AGS and OGB, depending on extent of any lingering mid level
cloud cover.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Chance of late night/early morning
stratus/fog, along with a chance of mainly afternoon/evening
showers/thunderstorms, late in the weekend through mid next week.





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