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Area Forecast Discussion

470
FXUS62 KCAE 031815
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
215 PM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE FORECAST AREA WILL CROSS THE AREA
TONIGHT. DRYING WILL OCCUR BEHIND THE FRONT WEDNESDAY WITH A
REINFORCING COLD FRONT CROSSING THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MUCH
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR BEHIND THIS FRONT FOR
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THIS AFTERNOON...COLD FRONT CONTINUES APPROACHING THE AREA WITH
LOW CLOUDS HAVING MIXED OUT AND CUMULUS BEGINNING TO DEVELOP. CAE
WSR-88D IMAGERY SHOWS ISOLATED SHOWERS AROUND THE AREA WITH
MAJORITY OF ACTIVITY CURRENTLY ALONG THE COAST. EXPECT SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO AGAIN DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AS ANOTHER UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. MOISTURE A BIT
LESS TODAY AND WITH SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR ALOFT POTENTIAL FOR GUSTY
WINDS WITH THUNDERSTORMS IS SLIGHTLY INCREASED..WITH SECONDARY
POTENTIAL FOR HAIL AS WET BULB ZERO HEIGHTS ARE 10 TO 11 KFT.
AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MID 80S FOR MOST LOCATIONS.

TONIGHT...COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE FORECAST AREA EARLY
TONIGHT AND TOWARD THE COAST BY DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY MORNING.
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT AND COLD AIR ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH
THE UPPER TROUGH SUPPORT CONTINUED THUNDERSTORM CHANCE THROUGH
MIDNIGHT WITH CHANCES LOWERING TOWARD DAYBREAK AS THE FRONT MOVES
EAST OF THE AREA. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER
60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
COLD FRONT WILL BE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA AS THE UPPER SHORTWAVE
CROSSES THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH LATE MORNING.  COOLER AND DRIER
AIR WILL WORK INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE FRONT AS SOMEWHAT MORE
WESTERLY MID LEVEL FLOW DEVELOPS.  TEMPERATURES WILL BE NOTICEABLY
COOLER WITH HIGHS STAYING IN THE MID AND UPPER 70S ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA.  DRY WEATHER EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY WITH PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES AROUND A HALF INCH AND DEWPOINTS BACK INTO THE 40S AND
50S WITH LITTLE INSTABILITY.

THE NEXT SHORTWAVE ROTATING THROUGH THE BROAD UPPER TROUGH WILL
CLOSE OFF AS IT DIVES INTO THE OHIO VALLEY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
DRIVING A DRY COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY. NO
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY WITH LITTLE MOISTURE
AVAILABLE AND LITTLE INSTABILITY.

THIS CLOSED LOW WILL SINK SOUTH OVER THE CAROLINAS ON THURSDAY
AND THE COMBINATION OF STRONG HEIGHT FALLS...STEEP LAPSE RATES
AROUND 8-9 C/KM...AND 500MB TEMPS AROUND -24C SHOULD SUPPORT AT
LEAST DIURNAL ISOLATED SHOWERS WITH SOME SMALL HAIL OR GRAUPEL
POSSIBLE...DESPITE PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ONLY AROUND A HALF
INCH. SHOWERS SHOULD DISSIPATE WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING IN THE
EVENING. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S
THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL BEGIN TO LIFT AWAY FROM THE FORECAST AREA ON
FRIDAY WITH DEEP NORTHWESTERLY FLOW PROVIDING DOWNSLOPING FLOW.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE RELATIVELY LOW AS WELL AROUND 0.60
INCHES AND WITH THE DOWNSLOPING FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE A
DRY FORECAST ON FRIDAY.

DRY NORTHWESTERLY FLOW CONTINUES INTO THE WEEKEND AS ANOTHER POTENT
UPPER TROUGH DIGS INTO NEW ENGLAND AND THE MID ATLANTIC BY SUNDAY
PUSHING A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT TOWARDS THE AREA.  POOLING MOISTURE
ALONG THE FRONT RAISES PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ABOVE AN INCH AND
MODELS INDICATE SOME WEAK TO POSSIBLY MODERATE INSTABILITY
DEVELOPING WHICH COULD SUPPORT SOME ISOLATED CONVECTION ACROSS THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. A DETERRING FACTOR FOR
PRECIPITATION CONTINUES TO BE THE DOWNSLOPING NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT.

THE FRONT BECOMES DIFFUSE BENEATH A BUILDING UPPER RIDGE MONDAY BUT
THEN REDEVELOPS AS A WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTHWARD ON TUESDAY NORTH
OF THE AREA IN RESPONSE TO INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER TROUGH LIFTING FROM THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
INTO THE OHIO VALLEY.  AT THIS TIME WILL HOLD A DRY FORECAST THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK BUT DEPENDING ON WHERE THE WARM FRONT DEVELOPS...MAY
NEED TO ADD SOME POPS ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA.

TEMPERATURES DURING THIS PERIOD WILL BEGIN BELOW NORMAL ON FRIDAY
WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S AND LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT IN THE 50S...THEN
GRADUALLY MODERATE WARMER TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES EARLY NEXT
WEEK.  HIGHS ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY EXPECTED TO RETURN TO THE UPPER
80S TO AROUND 90 DEGREES.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHOWERS HAVE BEGUN TO DEVELOP AROUND THE TAF SITES AND EXPECT
FURTHER DEVELOPMENT TO THUNDERSTORMS BETWEEN 18 AND 19Z. FEW
SHOWERS CURRENTLY JUST WEST OF AGS/DNL WILL MOVE IN AROUND 18Z
WITH SHOWERS SOUTHWEST OF CAE/CUB MOVING INTO THE TAF SITES
BETWEEN 1830 AND 19Z. EXPECT MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS WITH
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS...ALONG WITH
POTENTIAL FOR GUSTY WINDS AROUND THUNDERSTORMS. POTENTIAL FOR
STRATUS AND FOG DEVELOPING TOWARD DAYBREAK...HOWEVER WITH WINDS
REMAINING AROUND 5 KNOTS AND MID AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS OVER THE
REGION HAVE KEPT MENTION OF RESTRICTIONS OUT OF TAFS. WIND GUSTS
UP TO 18 KNOTS POSSIBLE THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MP
NEAR TERM...MP
SHORT TERM...HC
LONG TERM...HC
AVIATION...MP



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