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Area Forecast Discussion

725
FXUS62 KCAE 241453
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1053 AM EDT THU APR 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER BEFORE THE NEXT FRONT
APPROACHES THE SOUTHEAST FRIDAY. THIS WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA ON FRIDAY...BRINGING SOME SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND STORMS TO THE REGION. THE WEEKEND LOOKS DRY AND SUNNY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THIS AFTERNOON...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO MOVE EAST OF THE
AREA...ALLOWING WINDS TO BECOME MORE SOUTHEASTERLY THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO BE ON THE COOL
SIDE THE PAST FEW DAYS...ESPECIALLY THE MET...SO WILL FORECAST
AFTERNOON HIGHS ABOVE GUIDANCE. THIS GIVES HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S
TO LOWER 80S.

TONIGHT...THE HIGH WILL BE OFFSHORE...AND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
WILL PUSH OFF TO THE EAST AS WELL. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE
OUT OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS OVERNIGHT...AND WILL BE LOCATED ACROSS
THE OH VALLEY BY FRIDAY MORNING. A COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN
APPROACHING THE REGION LATE TONIGHT...BUT WILL REMAIN FAR ENOUGH
OFF TO THE WEST THROUGH EARLY MORNING SO THAT THE IMPACTS WILL BE
MINIMAL. FOR THE MOST PART EXPECTING A DRY FORECAST
OVERNIGHT...WITH A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE AROUND DAYBREAK ACROSS THE
EXTREME NORTHWEST. SURFACE AND LOW-LEVEL WINDS WILL CONTINUE OUT
OF THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE NIGHT...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW SOME
ATLANTIC MOISTURE TO MOVE ONSHORE LATER TONIGHT AND INTO THE
MORNING. WITH WEAK UPSLOPE FLOW...MODELS ARE INDICATING SOME LOW
STRATUS MAY FORM LATE TONIGHT. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL FALL TO AROUND
60 DEGREES WITH THE EXPECTED CLOUD COVER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
SPC DAY 2 HAS AREA IN A SEE TEXT WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR WIDELY
SCATTERED STRONG STORMS FRIDAY FROM MIDDAY/AFTERNOON. MODELS
INDICATE THAT THE AIRMASS ON FRIDAY WITH DAYTIME HEATING WILL
BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE. BEST SHEAR WILL BE ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN
NC AND THE PEE DEE...BUT BEST INSTABILITY WILL BE ACROSS
CENTRAL/EASTERN SC. THE MAIN LIMITING FACTOR WILL BE THE AMOUNT OF
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND THE FACT THAT THE MAIN S/W WILL BE MOVING
NORTHWEST OF THE REGION. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION FRIDAY NIGHT WITH CLEARING CONDITIONS. GUIDANCE AND LOCAL
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD ARE VERY CLOSE AND HAVE STAYED
NEAR/SLIGHTLY ABOVE GUIDANCE. POPS CONTINUE TO BE RATHER LOW AND
HAVE GONE A LITTLE HIGHER DUE TO THE THREAT OF ISOLATED SEVERE
WEATHER ON FRIDAY. THE MAIN THREAT WOULD BE STRONG WIND GUSTS AND
HAIL WITH WB ZERO VALUES LESS THAN 10K FT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SATURDAY LOOKS GOOD ACROSS THE CWA WITH MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
BUILDING ACROSS THE AREA AND WEAK HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATING AT THE
SURFACE. THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD REMAIN UNCERTAIN.
THE EXTENDED PERIOD...PER BOTH GFS AND ECMWF...AS A CUTOFF UPPER
LOW OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS THAT SLOWLY MOVES EASTWARD INTO THE OH
VALLEY BY WEDNESDAY. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE
REGION AS WELL AS CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES GENERALLY
CLOSE TO NORMAL BUT COOLER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED BY MID-WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY TONIGHT. SKIES SUNNY THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON HOURS.  THE CENTER OF A SURFACE HIGH WILL SHIFT EAST
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...ALLOWING LOW-LEVEL WINDS TO VEER TO MORE
OF A SOUTHEASTERLY DIRECTION. WIND SPEEDS SHOULD AVERAGE AROUND 10
KNOTS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THE SOUTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW WILL
ALLOW SOME LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE TO BEGIN RETURNING TO THE REGION
LATER TONIGHT. WITH SOME WEAK UPSLOPE FLOW...A LOW-LEVEL STRATUS
DECK IS LIKELY TO FORM BY 09Z. THIS IS SUPPORTED IN MANY OF THE
MODELS AT THIS TIME. CEILINGS FORECAST TO BECOME MVFR ONCE THE
STRATUS DEVELOPS.

.EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...THE FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION FRIDAY
WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME SHOWERS AND AN ISOLATED TSTM. BREEZY
CONDITIONS ALSO POSSIBLE FRIDAY. RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE AT TIMES
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY ASSOCIATED WITH A SLOW MOVING SYSTEM.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$








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