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Area Forecast Discussion

691
FXUS62 KCAE 280009
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
709 PM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OFF CAPE COD WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY MOVE
NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
WILL BUILD INTO THE CAROLINAS THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT. A FEW SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE FRONT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL
THROUGH MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LONG WAVE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES OVER THE EASTERN CONUS
WITH ITS DEEP SURFACE AND UPPER LOW CENTER MOVING SLOWLY NORTHWARD
FROM COASTAL NEW ENGLAND. NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE AREA
AND RESULTING COLD AIR ADVECTION. STILL A FEW CLOUDS AROUND FOR
THIS EVENING AS A SHORT WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA...OTHERWISE
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.

THE UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY MOVE EASTWARD TONIGHT
AS RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. OVERNIGHT LOWS
SHOULD RANGE IN THE MID/UPPER 20S GIVEN COLD ADVECTION CONTINUES
THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. IT WILL CONTINUE TO BE
A LITTLE BREEZY ON/AROUND THE AREA LAKES AS 20 TO 25 KT LOW LEVEL
JET ASSOCIATED WITH THE S/W MOVES ACROSS THE REGION EARLY TONIGHT.
EXPECT WINDS NEAR 10 KNOTS WITH GUSTS AROUND 15 KNOTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESIDE OVER THE AREA WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. VERY DRY AND COOL AIR MASS WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION WITH
DEW POINTS LIKELY IN THE TEENS. POTENTIAL FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING
CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH RIDGE OVER AREA. HOWEVER HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDS AHEAD OF SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING TOWARD MID ATLANTIC
STATES FROM MIDWEST POSSIBLY SPREADING INTO THE AREA LATE. KEPT
HIGHS TEMPERATURES FOR WEDNESDAY IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S.
MINIMUM TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY NIGHT SHOULD RANGE THROUGH THE 20S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
UPPER TROUGH WILL DEEPEN OVER THE E CONUS THU/FRI. UPPER ENERGY
AND DRY COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH OUR REGION THU NT. LIMITED
MOISTURE FOR THIS SYSTEM TO WORK WITH IN A GENERAL NW FLOW ALOFT.
LATEST MODEL CONSENSUS INDICATES SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN OR
SPRINKLES POSSIBLE. BEHIND THE FRONT...DRY COLD CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FRI/SAT. UPPER ENERGY APPROACHING FROM THE
WEST WILL BRING SURFACE LOW PRESSURE...COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED
ISENTROPIC LIFT/MOISTURE INTO OUR REGION LATE SAT NT/SUN/SUN
NT...WITH APPEARANCE OF WEAK WEDGE OVER OUR REGION. AT THIS
TIME...PRECIP TYPE APPEARS WILL BE ALL LIQUID FOR OUR FORECAST
AREA. GENERALLY ACCEPTED BLEND OF HPC AND MOS GUIDANCE. COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE THROUGH EARLY MONDAY. SOME UNCERTAINTIES EARLY NEXT WEEK
AS FRONT MAY STALL JUST TO OUR SOUTH WITH ANOTHER WAVE RIDING
ALONG IT...BUT THAT IS JUST BEYOND OUR FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

SKIES HAVE CLEARED THIS EVENING AS DRIER AIR BUILDS INTO THE
REGION. PERSISTENT NORTHERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTHWARD INTO THE AREA. NO FOG IS
EXPECTED OVERNIGHT DUE TO DRY AIR AND CLEAR SKIES SHOULD CONTINUE
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT
AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$






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