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Area Forecast Discussion

664
FXUS62 KCAE 230608
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
208 AM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WILL BE OVER DELMARVA
TODAY. THE HIGH WILL DIRECT DRY AIR INTO THE FORECAST AREA.
MOISTURE WILL INCREASE EARLY NEXT WEEK AS LOW LEVEL SOUTHEASTERLY
FLOW DEVELOPS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE RIDGING INTO THE FORECAST AREA
FROM THE NORTH EARLY THIS MORNING PROVIDING DRY AND RELATIVELY
COOL WEATHER. CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS EARLY THIS MORNING WILL
RESULT IN STRONG NOCTURNAL COOLING. RADIATION SCHEME SUGGESTS
POTENTIAL FOR MINIMUM TEMPERATURES BELOW MOS CONSENSUS...UPPER 40S
TO LOW 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
MID/UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA
BEGINNING SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION WILL GRADUALLY SLIDE
EASTWARD AND OFFSHORE BUT CONTINUE TO RIDGE SOUTHWEST INTO THE
REGION. THE MODELS MAINTAIN DRY CONDITIONS IN THE FORECAST AREA
ALTHOUGH MORE OF AN ONSHORE FLOW WILL OCCUR SUNDAY. ALL OF THE
NAM...GFS...AND ECMWF MOS HAVE POPS LESS THAN 10 PERCENT. USED THE
GUIDANCE CONSENSUS FOR THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST..BUT NOTICED THE
GUIDANCE HAS BEEN SLIGHTLY COOLER OVER THE PAST RUN OR TWO.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE GFS AND ECMWF CONTINUE TO BUILD THE RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEAST
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE RIDGE WILL WEAKLY SLIGHTLY AND MOVE
OFFSHORE TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BE OFFSHORE AND LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BECOME
MORE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE PERIOD. THIS WILL BRING IN ADDITIONAL
MOISTURE OFF THE OCEAN AND A SLIGHT INCREASE IN CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY FROM MIDWEEK THROUGH FRIDAY. RIDGE CIRCULATING AN
ONSHORE FLOW INTO THE FORECAST AREA DURING MUCH OF THE
MEDIUM-RANGE PERIOD. HOWEVER...MOISTURE APPEARS TO REMAIN
SHALLOW WITH STRONG UPPER RIDGING EARLY LINGERING THROUGH THE
PERIOD. THE GFS...ECMWF...AND EKD MOS HAVE POPS OF 20 TO 30
PERCENT WITH THE HIGHER VALUES TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD WITH A
LITTLE WEAKER UPPER RIDGING. THE MOS HAS TEMPERATURES A SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE 24-HOUR TAF PERIOD.
SKIES WILL REMAIN CLEAR EARLY THIS MORNING. A DRY AIRMASS SHOULD
INHIBIT FOG FORMATION AT ALL TAF SITES. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE E/NE
THIS AFTERNOON RANGING FROM 7 TO 12 KTS. POSSIBLY A FEW AFTERNOON
CUMULUS CLOUDS OVER THE AREA. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE
SATURDAY NIGHT WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RETURN FLOW WILL ALLOW SOME LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE TO SPREAD OVER THE AREA MONDAY INTO TUESDAY WHICH MAY LEAD
TO SOME MVFR RESTRICTIONS ESPECIALLY DURING THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

&&

$$
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