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Area Forecast Discussion

816
FXUS62 KCAE 201707
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
107 PM EDT SUN APR 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE GEORGIA AND SOUTH CAROLINA COAST WILL MOVE A
LITTLE FARTHER OUT TO SEA TODAY AS A PRESSURE RIDGE APPROACHES
FROM THE WEST. THIS RIDGE WILL EXTEND THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA
MONDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL REACH THE AREA TUESDAY AFTERNOON OR
EVENING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LOW PRESSURE OFFSHORE MOVING SLOWLY AWAY FROM THE AREA. SATELLITE
SHOWING CLEAR SKY ACROSS THE PIEDMONT AND NORTH MIDLANDS...BUT
CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS IN THE EAST WHICH APPEARS TO BE INCREASING
AGAIN. VERY LIGHT RAIN STILL POSSIBLE EAST MIDLANDS BUT LIKELY NOT
MEASURABLE. DESPITE NORTH WINDS...WARM ADVECTION RESULTING IN
MILD TEMPERATURES MOST OF THE AREA DESPITE CLOUDS. MOST AREAS
REPORTING IN THE 60S.

MODELS SUGGESTING DECREASING CLOUDS OVERNIGHT ALTHOUGH THEY MAY
LINGER IN THE EAST MIDLANDS AND PEE DEE AT LEAST THROUGH MIDNIGHT.
BUT AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES AWAY EXPECT MOISTURE ADVECTION TO SHIFT
TO THE COAST AND DRIER AIR TO SPREAD ACROSS AREA. GUSTY WINDS THIS
AFTERNOON WILL BE DIMINISHING AS SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT
CONTINUES TO WEAKEN. TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE SHOWS LARGE SPREAD FOR
MINIMUM TEMPERATURES TONIGHT. DEW POINTS EXPECTED TO BE LOW BUT
MIXING IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER AND POSSIBLE CLOUDS SHOULD KEEP
TEMPERATURES FROM FALLING TOO FAST. MOS HAS COOL BIAS SO WILL GO
ABOVE MOS CONSENSUS FOR LOWS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
DRYING WILL CONTINUE AS THE RIDGE CONTINUES TO APPROACH. THIS
RIDGE WILL EXTEND THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY AND CONTINUE
INTO MONDAY NIGHT. THE TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE WAS CLOSE MONDAY AND
MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE GFS AND ECMWF DISPLAY A COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE FORECAST
AREA TUESDAY AFTERNOON OR EVENING. THE TIMING WILL BE DIURNALLY
FAVORABLE FOR THUNDERSTORMS. THE NAM INDICATES SURFACE-BASED LI/S
-4 TO -5 TUESDAY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...MOISTURE AND CONVERGENCE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT SHOULD BE LIMITED. THE H85 FLOW WILL BE
WESTERLY WITH GULF MOISTURE MAINLY CUT OFF. AN AVERAGE OF THE
GFS...ECMWF...AND EKD MOS SUPPORT A POP AROUND 30 PERCENT. A DRY
AIR MASS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL LIKELY DOMINATE DURING MUCH OF THE
REMAINING MEDIUM-RANGE PERIOD. HOWEVER...THE ECMWF AND GFS
INDICATE ANOTHER WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN THE AREA FRIDAY BUT
LITTLE MOISTURE WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE. THE GFS...
ECMWF...AND EKD MOS SUPPORT TEMPERATURES NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFFSHORE WILL BE MOVING AWAY FROM THE REGION. HIGH
CONFIDENCE FOR VFR CEILINGS THROUGH THE PERIOD. SCATTERED TO
BROKEN STRATO-CUMULUS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON THEN DIMINISHING
DURING THE EVENING. NORTH-NORTHEAST WINDS 10 TO 15 KTS WITH A FEW
GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KTS...DIMINISHING AS PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS
BY THIS EVENING.

.EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...THERE IS A CHANCE FOR MVFR OR LOWER
CONDITIONS IN CONVECTION LATE TUESDAY OR TUESDAY NIGHT AS A COLD
FRONT CROSSES THE REGION.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$






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