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Area Forecast Discussion

863
FXUS62 KCAE 300203
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1003 PM EDT WED OCT 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA THIS
EVENING. A REINFORCING FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY
NIGHT. MUCH COLDER AIR WILL FOLLOW THIS FRONT. THE FIRST
WIDESPREAD FROST OF THE SEASON SO FAR MAY OCCUR THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
COLD FRONT IN THE UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA AT 02Z. BASED ON LATEST
RAP...FRONTAL PASSAGE THROUGH CAE MAY BE DELAYED UNTIL 04Z-06Z.
LATEST RADAR INDICATING LITTLE IN THE WAY OF SHOWERS IN THE
REGION. CUT POPS BACK FOR THE REST OF THE EVENING...BUT STILL A LOW
CHANCE SHOWERS MAINLY EAST MIDLANDS WHERE AIR MASS REMAINS WEAKLY
UNSTABLE. THE FRONT SHOULD BE OFF THE COAST BY 12Z. TEMPERATURE
GUIDANCE OVERNIGHT WAS CLOSE ALTHOUGH MAY BE A LITTLE LOW DUE TO
MIXING BEHIND THE FRONT. COLD ADVECTION APPEARS WEAK. FORECASTING
LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S WEST TO MID 50S EAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
ANY PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT SHOULD BE WELL EAST
OF THE AREA BY 12Z THURSDAY WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHING OFF
THE COAST.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD INTO THE AREA ON
THURSDAY PROVIDING MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND COOLER TEMPERATURES WITH
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.

500MB FLOW BECOMES HIGHLY AMPLIFIED ON FRIDAY WITH A DEEP TROUGH OFF
THE WEST COAST...DOWNSTREAM RIDGE ALONG THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST INTO
WESTERN CANADA...AND SIGNIFICANT TROUGHING EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY. MODELS IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT AND HAVE TRENDED MUCH
STRONGER WITH SHORTWAVE ENERGY DIVING SOUTH THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES
AND CLOSING OFF OVER THE OHIO VALLEY ON FRIDAY...THEN CONTINUING
SOUTHEASTWARD OVER THE CAROLINAS BY SATURDAY MORNING...BEFORE
SHIFTING OFF THE COAST SATURDAY AFTERNOON.  THESE SOLUTIONS ARE VERY
MUCH IN LINE WITH WHAT THE ECMWF WAS DEPICTING ABOUT 5-6 DAYS
AGO...BRINGING A VERY COLD AIR MASS OVER THE REGION THIS WEEKEND.

IT STILL APPEARS THE BEST MOISTURE AND POTENTIAL FOR PRECIPITATION
WILL REMAIN NORTH AND EAST OF THE AREA BUT HAVE INCLUDED SOME LOW
CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE NORTHERN MIDLANDS FRIDAY NIGHT WITH THIS
HIGHLY DYNAMIC FEATURE.  SIGNIFICANT COLD ADVECTION WILL MOVE INTO
THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT BEHIND A COLD FRONT AS SURFACE LOW
DEVELOPMENT OCCURS OVER SOUTHERN NORTH CAROLINA...AND CONTINUE INTO
SATURDAY AS THE LOW DEEPENS AND MOVES OFFSHORE.  VERY STRONG WINDS
EXPECTED LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY ASSOCIATED WITH THE
DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE AND MAY NEED A LAKE WIND ADVISORY DURING THIS
PERIOD.  MODEL FORECASTS OF 850MB WINDS CLOSE TO 50 KNOTS ON
SATURDAY WITH DOWNSLOPING NORTHWESTERLY FLOW COULD ALLOW SOME WINDS
OF 30 TO 35 MPH TO MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE. DO NOT THINK RED FLAG
CRITERIA WILL BE MET BUT FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS MAY NEED TO BE
ADDRESSED AS WELL AS WE APPROACH THE WEEKEND. MAX TEMPERATURES ON
SATURDAY WILL BE NEARLY 10-15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL IN THE 50S.
SATURDAY NIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO BE NEARLY 10 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL AND IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S...ALTHOUGH FROST IS NOT EXPECTED
DUE TO PERSISTENT WIND KEEPING THE BOUNDARY LAYER MIXED.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD WILL FEATURE A COLD START WITH
MODERATING TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD.

THE DEEP UPPER TROUGH OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WILL CONTINUE TO
LIFT NORTHEASTWARD AWAY FROM THE FORECAST AREA WHILE A COLD AND DRY
CANADIAN AIR MASS BUILDS INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH ON SUNDAY.
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE WELL BELOW NORMAL WITH 850MB
TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY AROUND +3C TO +4C.  HIGH TEMPS ON SUNDAY WILL
STRUGGLE TO REACH 60 DEGREES ACROSS THE MIDLANDS BUT MAY REACH THE
LOWER 60S IN THE CSRA.  ANOTHER VERY COLD NIGHT EXPECTED SUNDAY
NIGHT WITH NEAR IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS UNDER MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT TO CALM WINDS AND A VERY DRY AIR MASS IN
PLACE.  TEMPERATURES SUNDAY NIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE
LOWER TO MID 30S AND A WIDESPREAD FROST IS POSSIBLE...AND SOME
ISOLATED SHELTERED OUTLYING AREAS COULD REACH OR FALL BELOW
FREEZING.

THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL PUSH EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON
MONDAY AS THE SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS OFFSHORE AND A LIGHT RETURN
SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPS.  TEMPERATURES WILL BE A BIT WARMER ON
MONDAY BUT STILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL.  ON TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY...UPPER HEIGHTS WILL BEGIN TO FALL IN RESPONSE TO
SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION CARVING A TROUGH
ACROSS THE CENTRAL PART OF THE COUNTRY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH
THE AREA FROM THE WEST BY WEDNESDAY WITH INCREASING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE SO WILL INTRODUCE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA.  TEMPERATURES TUE/WED WILL GRADUALLY RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL
WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

MAIN COLD FRONT CURRENTLY MOVING INTO THE NORTHERN TIER OF OUR
FORECAST AREA (FA). RADAR IMAGERY INDICATING ONLY A FEW SHOWERS. VFR
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION. WILL GENERALLY HANDLE PRECIP THREAT
WITH VCSH. FRONT EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE TERMINALS ROUGHLY
AROUND 05Z TO 06Z. EXPECT A WIND SHIFT TO NORTH BEHIND THE FRONT.
SOME MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTING POSSIBILITY OF SOME LIGHT SHOWER
ACTIVITY CONTINUING LATE TONIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT...PERHAPS IN
RESPONSE TO UPPER LIFT FROM APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH. WILL LEAVE IN
VCSH MENTION IN THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. CIGS APPEAR WILL REMAIN LOW
END VFR THROUGH TONIGHT. DECREASING CLOUDINESS EXPECTED THURSDAY
MORNING. VFR EXPECTED THU.

.EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...
MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE FRI NT INTO EARLY SAT. BREEZY TO POSSIBLY WINDY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED SATURDAY. OTHERWISE...NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS TO
AVIATION EXPECTED SUN/MON.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$






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