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Area Forecast Discussion

550
FXUS62 KCAE 012318
AFDCAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
718 PM EDT FRI JUL 1 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A pressure ridge will extend from the Atlantic westward into the
Gulf of Mexico through Independence Day. A weak pressure trough
will linger in the forecast area. The pattern supports mainly
scattered diurnal thunderstorms with temperatures a little above
normal.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
Overall dry across the area early this evening with just some
isolated light showers. Any ongoing convection will end later this
evening. Overnight lows will be in the lower 70s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
The models displayed surface ridging extending from the Atlantic
westward into the Gulf of Mexico. North of the ridge a frontal
zone was shown remaining north of the forecast area with weak lee-
side troughing in the area. Expect thunderstorms mainly
associated with heating and convergence into the trough or into a
possible seabreeze front that may move well inland. Instability
will likely remain weak with relatively warm mid-level
temperatures indicating a diminished risk of severe thunderstorms.
The NAM had surface-based LI`s around -3 Saturday. Leaned toward
the higher high temperature guidance because of the recent bias.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
The GFS and ECMWF displayed surface ridging extending from the
Atlantic westward into the Gulf of Mexico through the medium-range
period. The ECMWF has shown the frontal zone remaining just north
of the forecast area. The GFS has depicted the front sinking a
little farther southward. The ECMWF solution supported hotter
temperatures. We used an average of the GFS and ECMWF MOS for the
temperatures. The front near the area, a lee-side trough,
possible upper support at times with a series of mid-level
shortwave troughs brushing the area, plus strong heating supported
a chance of thunderstorms through the period. The GFS ensemble
mean and GFS, ECMWF, and EKD MOS had pops mainly around 30
percent with no particular day more favored for precipitation.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Weak surface boundary across the area continues slowly moving
toward the coast with another weak upper level disturbance
crossing the region tonight. Isolated convection currently over
the area will increase in coverage through early this
evening...have remained with vcsh for all sites due to limited
coverage of convection. Convection will diminish this evening
with fog and stratus once again possible during the early morning
and sunrise hours. Have included mvfr fog/stratus for all sites
and will adjust as confidence increases.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Restrictions possible in diurnal
convection each afternoon through the period along with late
night/early morning patchy fog.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
SC...None.

&&

$$



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