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Area Forecast Discussion

807
FXUS62 KCAE 270356
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1056 PM EST THU FEB 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST WILL CONTINUE MOVING OUT
TO SEA OVERNIGHT. CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE
AREA FOR THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL FOR
THE WEEKEND...THEN WARM NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
DRY FORECAST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. LOW PRESSURE OFF THE
MID-ATLANTIC COAST WILL CONTINUE MOVING NORTHEAST AND OUT TO SEA.
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL
SLIP SOUTHEAST INTO THE CENTRAL MS RIVER VALLEY OVERNIGHT.
ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE (BELOW 5000 FEET) SHOWING INDICATIONS
OF THINNING ACROSS THE UPSTATE AND CSRA. STILL EXPECT CLOUDY TO
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES OVERNIGHT AS WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BECOME
LIGHT WITH NO REAL DOWNSLOPE. MODELS ALSO INDICATE A WEAKENING
SHORT WAVE CROSSING THE REGION OVERNIGHT IN BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW
ALOFT. IF WE SEE ANY CLEARING TONIGHT...COULD SEE FOG DEVELOP.

KEPT OVERNIGHT LOWS NEAR GUIDANCE CONSENSUS...IN THE UPPER 20S
NORTH TO MID 30S CSRA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
WEATHER PATTERN WILL REMAIN DRY THROUGH SATURDAY. BROAD CYCLONIC
FLOW ALOFT BECOMES NEARLY ZONAL OVER THE WEEKEND. LARGE AREA OF
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL MS RIVER VALLEY
FRIDAY WILL BUILD EAST ACROSS THE OH RIVER VALLEY TO THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST BY SATURDAY EVENING. ALL MODELS INDICATE WEAK
ISENTROPIC LIFT BEGINNING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND WESTERN COUNTIES
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THE NAM MODEL SHOWS STRONGER ISENTROPIC LIFT...AND
CHANCE OF PRECIP SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. IF THE
NAM IS CORRECT...FREEZING RAIN IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE PIEDMONT AND
NORTHERN MIDLANDS SATURDAY NIGHT. SINCE THE NAM IS AN OUTLIER AND
CONFIDENCE IS LOW...WILL KEEP SATURDAY NIGHT DRY.

KEPT DAYTIME HIGHS ON THE COOL SIDE OF GUIDANCE. HIGHS FRIDAY FROM
THE LOWER 40S NORTH MIDLANDS TO THE LOWER 50S CSRA. SATURDAY SHOULD
BE A LITTLE COOLER WITH HIGH PRESSURE BEGINNING TO WEDGE IN FROM THE
NORTH...SO HIGHS RANGING THROUGH THE 40S. WENT NEAR CONSENSUS FOR
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID/UPPER 20S NORTH MIDLANDS...AND LOW/MID
30S CENTRAL MIDLANDS TO CSRA.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MODELS STILL SHOWING AN AREA OF COLD CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE SETTING
UP OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION EXTENDING SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE
CAROLINAS SUNDAY. SURFACE TROUGH ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST. MODELS
INDICATE MOISTURE FLUX/ISENTROPIC LIFT INCREASING SUNDAY. WEDGE
CONDITIONS MAY CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY AND INCREASE CHANCE OF RAIN
AS MOISTURE CONTINUES TO SPREAD INTO THE REGION. INCREASING SOUTH
FLOW TUESDAY THROUGH MIDWEEK AHEAD OF APPROACHING STRONG COLD
FRONT...BREEZY OR WINDY CONDITIONS BECOME POSSIBLE. THREAT OF
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF
FRONT WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY...BUT MODELS SHOW TIMING ISSUES BY END OF
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED TO DOMINATE THE TAF PERIOD.

CLOUDS CONTINUE MOVING THROUGH THE REGION WITH SOME CLEARING SPOTS
TRAVERSING THE AREA. EXPECT CLOUDS TO AGAIN LOWER OVERNIGHT WITH
PATCHY FOG ALSO DEVELOPING WITH MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT.
SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR WILL MIX DOWNWARD DURING THE MORNING WITH CIGS
RISING TO VFR FROM AROUND 13Z THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.
WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE NORTHERLY AT 6 KNOTS OR LESS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...INCREASING CONFIDENCE IN FLIGHT
RESTRICTIONS SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY WITH WEDGE CONDITIONS
AND A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CROSSING THE REGION.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$







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