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Area Forecast Discussion

FXUS62 KCAE 271008

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
608 AM EDT FRI MAY 27 2016

High pressure will remain over the forecast area through tonight.
Moisture will increase Saturday through Sunday associated with
low pressure nearing the Southeast coast.


Water vapor imagery trends and the models depict the mid-level
shortwave trough weakening or the ridge building westward slightly
from the Atlantic while an upper low remains over the vicinity of
the Bahamas. The models display continued surface ridging along
the southeast coast limiting moisture here. Model forecast
soundings indicate a mid-level subsidence inversion or cap which
should help diminish the thunderstorm chance. All the GFS, NAM and
ECMWF MOS have pops less than 20 percent. The high-resolution
models display just isolated coverage at most. Believe the
thunderstorm chance is too low to include in the forecast. Used
the guidance consensus for the temperature forecast.


The models display moisture increasing in the forecast area in a
developing easterly flow between ridging shifting north and low
pressure approaching from off the Southeast coast. The shower and
thunderstorm chance should be on the increase, especially in the
east section of the forecast area. Followed the guidance consensus
for the pop forecast. The NAM and ECMWF indicated general rainfall
totals Saturday and Saturday night up to around 0.25 of an inch.
The GFS had more rain will totals around 0.75 of an inch in the
southeast section. Followed the more consistent guidance. Used the
guidance consensus for the temperature forecast.


Uncertainty remains high in the medium-range period. The GFS
displayed low pressure from off the Southeast coast moving inland
and remaining near or in the forecast area through much of the
period. The ECMWF stalled the low near the coast and then
indicated a general northeast movement along the coast. The low
may gain sub-tropical characteristics. The slower GFS solution
indicates more of a flood threat in the forecast area. There may
also be a tornado threat as well because of tropical moisture and
possible high shear. The GFS, ECMWF, and EKD MOS support the
highest pops Sunday and Monday.


VFR conditions expected, with the exception of early morning MVFR
fog possible at AGS/OGB.

High pressure and drier air will build westward over the Forecast
Area today, ensuring fair weather. Winds expected to become light
and variable or calm late tonight, though boundary layer winds may
stay up some. Current dewpoint depressions fairly high, but think
mvfr fog possible at the fog prone sites ogb and ags, and will
include in a tempo group. Building upper ridge and drier air
expected to preclude convection today.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MVFR fog/stratus possible at ags and ogb
late Friday night/early Saturday morning. Showers and possible
thunderstorms and associated restrictions, with breezy conditions
possible at times, late Saturday afternoon through at least early
next week, as a low pressure system, which may possibly become
tropical, approaches from the SE and then may stall or move slowly
near the region.





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