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Area Forecast Discussion

FXUS62 KCAE 301410

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
1010 AM EDT SAT JUL 30 2016

Upper level ridge continues to slide into the Atlantic Basin as
the upper trough digs across the MS River Valley into the Ohio
River Valley. A series of short waves rotating through the base of
the trough will result in increasing chances of thunderstorms over
the next several days.


A broad upper trough over the MS River Valley will slowly shift
east into the Great Lakes region and Ohio River Valley. Moisture
expected to increase across the area this afternoon with weak to
moderate instability. A series of weak short waves is forecast to
cross the area this afternoon into the evening. Scattered showers
and thunderstorms expected to develop this afternoon. Severe
thunderstorm threat remains low with main potential this evening
from damaging wind gusts. Expect thunderstorm coverage to diminish
with sunset...however with the short waves continuing to move into
the area ahead of the upper level trough expect a few thunderstorms
to persist into tonight.

Temperatures will again be hot today with afternoon highs again
in the mid and upper 90s and heat index readings in the 103 to
107 range. Low temperatures tonight will be in the 70s.


Upper level trough will continue moving eastward with increasing
moisture across the region Sunday into Monday. Instability will
remain moderate each day with pwat values around 2 inches. With
the series of short wave rotating through the base of the trough
the chance of thunderstorms will continue increasing...however the
threat of severe thunderstorms will remain low. With the hot air
mass over the area the potential for hail will be very low with
the main thunderstorm threat begin damaging winds. With the moist
air mass the potential for locally heavy rainfall will also need
to be monitored. High temperatures will be in the lower to middle
90s with overnight lows in the lower to middle 70s.


Models continue in good agreement with the upper trough lingering
over the eastern US and a weak surface boundary across the
forecast area. This will keep high chances of thunderstorms in
the forecast through early this week with the upper trough moving
offshore late Tuesday. Although the trough will move into the
western Atlantic the surface trough will remain over the area and
continue to be a focusing mechanism for convection through Friday.
Above normal temperatures are expected throughout the long term.


Generally VFR conditions expected through the 24 hour TAF forecast

Scattered cumulus clouds to develop this afternoon with bases at
or above 5000 feet. Light winds will become southwest near 10
knots by midday. Widely scattered showers and thunderstorms may
develop during the afternoon and evening as the upper ridge
weakens with a trough moving into the Ohio Valley. Low threat for
convection to impact terminals.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Low potential for restrictions in
afternoon and evening convection each day.





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