National Weather Service Weather Forecast Office

Area Forecast Discussion

317
FXUS62 KCAE 190758
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
358 AM EDT WED JUN 19 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
THE THREAT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE
MIDLANDS AND CSRA TODAY AS A COLD FRONT SLOWLY SINKS SOUTHWARD
ACROSS THE AREA. MOISTURE WILL DIMINISH FROM THE NORTH TONIGHT
INTO THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH. THE
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN FOR THE WEEKEND
AS INCREASINGLY WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS RETURN.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
EARLY THIS MORNING...SURFACE COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE UPSTATE
TO THE NORTH MIDLANDS. SHOWERS ALONG FRONTAL BOUNDARY...WITH
LITTLE MOVEMENT TO THE EAST/SOUTHEAST. COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING
SLOWLY SOUTH AND EAST EARLY THIS MORNING. INSTABILITY WILL BE
WEAK AND FORCING LIMITED TO WEAK CONVERGENCE ALONG FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. SO ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE.
WITH CLOUDS PERSISTING...EXPECT EARLY MORNING LOW TEMPERATURES
AROUND 70.

TODAY INTO TONIGHT...THE SURFACE COLD FRONT SHOULD SLOWLY MOVE
SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. THE THREAT FOR CONVECTION WILL
GRADUALLY DIMINISH FROM THE NORTH THROUGH THE EVENING AS DRIER AND
MORE STABLE AIR FILTERS IN. KEPT HIGH CHANCE POPS FOR CONVECTION
TODAY IN THE SOUTH...WITH POPS DIMINISHING TO THE NORTH. WENT NEAR
CONSENSUS WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 80S AND LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
MAINLY DRY WEATHER EXPECTED THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT AS HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGES IN FROM THE NORTH. HIGHEST PRECIPITABLE WATER
WILL BE SOUTH OF THE CSRA. CONSENSUS MOS TEMPS LOOK REASONABLE WITH
HIGHS IN THE 85 TO 90 DEGREE RANGE AND LOWS IN THE 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A WEAK UPPER
LEVEL LOW AFFECTING THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES. THE FLOW AROUND SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST WILL BRING INCREASING
MOISTURE TO THE REGION. AS A RESULT WE CAN EXPECT A CHANCE OF MAINLY
DIURNAL CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY...ALONG WITH SEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR AT THE TERMINALS CURRENTLY. RADAR INDICATES A FEW
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WELL TO THE NORTH OF THE TERMINALS. ONCE
CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY DISSIPATES LATER
TONIGHT...FOCUS WILL SHIFT TO ANY FOG/STRATUS THREAT FOR LATE
TONIGHT/EARLY WED. LATEST GUIDANCE GENERALLY POINTING TO
POSSIBILITIES OF MVFR CONDITIONS.

AFTER ANY MORNING RESTRICTIONS...EXPECT VFR WEDNESDAY. SOME DRIER
AIR WILL ENTER OUR FORECAST AREA BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH CHANCES
OF CONVECTION WEDNESDAY MAINLY TO OUR SOUTH. CHANCES TOO LOW TO
INCLUDE MENTION IN TAFS AT THIS TIME.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...SLIGHT CHANCE OF MAINLY AFTERNOON/EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$