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Area Forecast Discussion

710
FXUS62 KCAE 220628
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
128 AM EST MON DEC 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL ZONE WILL REMAIN NEAR THE SOUTHEAST COAST THROUGH
TUESDAY. A SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL MOVE NORTHEASTWARD
ALONG THE FRONT...KEEPING WEATHER UNSETTLED. A STRONG COLD FRONT
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA LATE
WEDNESDAY OR WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
SUB-TROPICAL PLUME OF MOISTURE EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL MEXICO TO
THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES CONTINUES TO BE EVIDENT ON THE WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY. ISENTROPIC LIFTING IN RESPONSE TO AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE
FROM THE GULF COAST...RESULTING IN LIGHT RAIN ACROSS THE FA. DESPITE
THE HIGH POPS OVERNIGHT...TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO
BE LIGHT AT GENERALLY A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
MODELS SHOWING THE BULK OF THE RAINFALL PUSHING NORTH OF THE CWA
EARLY MONDAY MORNING...AND WILL HAVE DECREASING POPS DURING THE
MORNING. STILL EXPECTING SCATTERED RAINFALL WITH SOME DRIZZLE
THROUGH THE DAY. WEDGE WILL HOLD STRONG MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT. WITH PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER AND NORTHEAST
WINDS...TEMPERATURES WILL NOT RECOVER MUCH THROUGH THE DAY
MONDAY...WITH READINGS REMAINING MAINLY IN THE 40S. OVERNIGHT LOWS
MONDAY NIGHT WILL ALSO BE IN THE 40S. DEEPER MOISTURE WILL RETURN
TO THE CWA AGAIN DURING THE DAY TUESDAY...AND WITH THIS INCREASE
THE AREA WILL SEE AN INCREASE IN POPS. WEDGE MAY DIMINISH AND
WEAKEN LATE IN THE DAY TUESDAY...WHICH WOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO
REACH THE 50S. WITH THE WEDGE BREAKDOWN AND THE EXPECTED RETURN OF
WARMER AIR...TEMPERATURES TUESDAY NIGHT WILL NOT DROP MUCH AND MAY
EVEN RISE SLOWLY THROUGH THE NIGHT. CATEGORICAL POPS THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT. STRONGER COLD FRONT IS POISED TO MOVE INTO THE
REGION WEDNESDAY. AT THIS TIME THE UPPER SUPPORT REMAINS BEHIND
THE SURFACE COLD FRONT...WITH THE SURFACE FRONT MOVING THROUGH
WEDNESDAY EVENING. WIDESPREAD RAINFALL WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
REGION EARLY IN THE DAY WEDNESDAY...THEN SHOULD SEE A DECREASE IN
POPS LATE WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WITH THE WARM AIR AHEAD
OF THE COLD FRONT...WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE
PERIOD AS TEMPERATURES RISE INTO THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. CAN
NOT RULE OUT ISOLATED THUNDER ON WEDNESDAY IF THE UPPER SUPPORT
CAN CATCH UP WITH THE SURFACE FRONT...BUT AT THIS TIME THE
CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO MENTION. WINDS FROM WEDNESDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BECOME STRONG AND GUSTY...WITH WIND
GUSTS OF 20 MPH POSSIBLE.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
RETURN TO MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE FRONT.  THE
MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A DRY AIRMASS FOR CHRISTMAS DAY. WINDS
WILL REMAIN BREEZY AND GUSTY ON CHRISTMAS DAY...THEN THE GRADIENT
WEAKENS BY THURSDAY EVENING.

MOISTURE MAY INCREASE ASSOCIATED WITH ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVING
INTO THE AREA SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT THE TAF SITES FOR MUCH OF THE TAF PERIOD.

ISENTROPIC ASCENT HAS BEGUN PRODUCING RAIN ACROSS THE TAF SITES WITH
CIGS AND VSBYS LOWERING INTO THE IFR RANGE. CONDITIONS NOT EXPECTED
TO IMPROVE DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS AS NORTHEASTERLY FLOW
RESULTS IN WEDGE CONDITIONS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE REGION BY 12Z.
FROM 12Z THROUGH THE AFTERNOON EXPECT DRIZZLE/LIGHT RAIN REDUCING
VSBYS INTO THE MVFR RANGE WITH CIGS MAINLY IFR...AND IFR CIGS/VSBYS
THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT WITH FOG AND LOW CLOUDS. WINDS THROUGH THE
PERIOD WILL BE NORTHEASTERLY AT 7 KNOTS OR LESS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...WIDESPREAD MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING AS A SERIES OF SYSTEMS
CROSS THE REGION. BREEZY CONDITIONS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
INTO THURSDAY MORNING.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$






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