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Area Forecast Discussion

501
FXUS62 KCAE 242104
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
504 PM EDT THU APR 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER BEFORE THE NEXT FRONT
APPROACHES THE SOUTHEAST FRIDAY. THIS WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA ON FRIDAY...BRINGING SOME SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND STORMS TO THE REGION. THE WEEKEND LOOKS DRY AND SUNNY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE HIGH WILL BE OFFSHORE TONIGHT...AND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL
PUSH OFF TO THE EAST AS WELL. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE OUT OF
THE CENTRAL PLAINS OVERNIGHT...AND WILL BE LOCATED ACROSS THE OH
VALLEY BY FRIDAY MORNING. A COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN APPROACHING THE
REGION LATE TONIGHT...BUT WILL REMAIN FAR ENOUGH OFF TO THE WEST
THROUGH EARLY MORNING SO THAT THE IMPACTS WILL BE MINIMAL. FOR THE
MOST PART EXPECTING A DRY FORECAST OVERNIGHT...WITH A FEW SHOWERS
POSSIBLE AROUND DAYBREAK ACROSS THE EXTREME NORTHWEST. SURFACE AND
LOW- LEVEL WINDS WILL CONTINUE OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE
NIGHT...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW SOME ATLANTIC MOISTURE TO MOVE ONSHORE
LATER TONIGHT AND INTO THE MORNING. WITH WEAK UPSLOPE FLOW...MODELS
ARE INDICATING SOME LOW STRATUS MAY FORM LATE TONIGHT. OVERNIGHT
LOWS WILL FALL TO AROUND 60 DEGREES WITH THE EXPECTED CLOUD COVER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
SPC DAY 2 HAS AREA IN AN AREA OF GENERAL THUNDERSTORMS...WITH A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF STRONGER STORMS ALONG EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA
FRIDAY FROM MIDDAY/AFTERNOON. MODELS INDICATE THAT THE AIRMASS ON
FRIDAY WITH DAYTIME HEATING WILL BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE. BEST
SHEAR WILL BE ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN NC AND THE PEE DEE...BUT BEST
INSTABILITY WILL BE ACROSS CENTRAL/EASTERN SC. THE MAIN LIMITING
FACTOR WILL BE PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES GENERALLY LESS THAN 1.25
INCHES AND THE FACT THAT THE MAIN S/W WILL BE MOVING NORTHWEST OF
THE REGION. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY
NIGHT WITH CLEARING CONDITIONS. GUIDANCE AND LOCAL TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE PERIOD ARE VERY CLOSE AND HAVE STAYED NEAR/SLIGHTLY
ABOVE GUIDANCE. LOW CHANCE POPS CONTINUE TO LOOK REASONABLE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY LOOK GOOD ACROSS THE CWA WITH MID/UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING BUILDING ACROSS THE AREA AND WEAK HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATING
AT THE SURFACE. THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD REMAIN
UNCERTAIN. GFS DEPICTING A CUTOFF UPPER LOW OVER THE CENTRAL
PLAINS THAT SLOWLY MOVES EASTWARD INTO THE OH VALLEY BY
WEDNESDAY...WITH THE PREVIOUS ECMWF MUCH SLOWER. LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION AS WELL AS CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY INTO THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES
GENERALLY CLOSE TO NORMAL BUT SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED BY THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR EARLY TONIGHT. THE SOUTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW WILL ALLOW SOME
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE TO BEGIN RETURNING TO THE REGION LATER TONIGHT.
WITH SOME WEAK UPSLOPE FLOW...A LOW-LEVEL STRATUS DECK IS LIKELY
TO FORM BY 09Z. THIS IS SUPPORTED IN MANY OF THE MODELS AT THIS
TIME. CEILINGS FORECAST TO BECOME MVFR ONCE THE STRATUS DEVELOPS.
BY 15Z FRIDAY MORNING ENOUGH MIXING SHOULD BE TAKING PLACE TO
SCATTER OUT THE MVFR CLOUDS...LEAVING VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE REST
OF THE TAF PERIOD. THE WINDS WILL INCREASE LATE FRIDAY MORNING
ONCE THE INVERSION BREAKS...LEADING TO SOME GUSTY LOW-LEVEL WINDS.

.EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...THE FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION FRIDAY
WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME SHOWERS AND AN ISOLATED TSTM. BREEZY
CONDITIONS ALSO POSSIBLE FRIDAY. RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE AT TIMES
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY ASSOCIATED WITH A SLOW MOVING SYSTEM.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$






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