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Area Forecast Discussion

015
FXUS62 KCAE 081752
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1252 PM EST MON FEB 8 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND BREEZY CONDITIONS. DRY AND
COLD WEATHER EXPECTED TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY WITH BREEZY
CONDITIONS. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL COME THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH
LIMITED MOISTURE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS WILL BRING HEIGHT
FALLS OVER OUR REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AN ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT WILL QUICKLY APPROACH THE FORECAST AREA THIS
AFTERNOON. MOISTURE ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE FRONT MAY ALLOW FOR
SOME SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS WITH VERY LIMITED MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY. THE GFS SHOWS THE MOST MOISTURE...HOWEVER ITS SURFACE
DEWPOINTS ARE CURRENTLY 5 TO 10 DEGREES HIGHER THAN OBSERVED.
THEREFORE FAVORED THE DRIER NAM. THE 12Z CHS SOUNDING SHOWS A
PWAT VALUE OF AROUND 0.25 INCHES. RADAR RETURNS CURRENTLY IN THE
UPSTATE ARE NOT REFLECTED IN THE OBSERVATIONS. INDICATING THAT THE
PRECIP IS EVAPORATING IN THE DRY LOWER LEVELS. ANY SHOWERS THIS
AFTERNOON ARE LIKELY TO BE LIGHT AND BRIEF AS THE FRONT QUICKLY
MOVES THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA BY LATE THIS EVENING.

DEEP MIXING WILL BRING STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON.
GUSTY CONDITIONS EXPECTED AHEAD OF AND BEHIND THE FRONT FOR THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY TONIGHT. WINDS BECOME WESTERLY AFTER THE COLD
FRONT PASSES LATE THIS EVENING. CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE WIND
GUSTS RANGING FROM 20 KTS TO 25 KTS...JUST BELOW OUR LAKE WIND
ADVISORY CRITERIA.

TONIGHT...DECENT LOW LEVEL MIXING BEHIND THE FRONT SHOULD KEEP
WINDS UP OVERNIGHT AS DEWPOINTS FALL INTO THE MID TO LOW 20S BY
TUESDAY MORNING. THEREFORE FOG IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE A CONCERN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE W CONUS WITH TROUGH E CONUS. A
GENERAL NW ATMOSPHERIC FLOW WILL MAINTAIN A FEED OF COLDER AND
DRIER AIR INTO OUR REGION...WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
CONTINUED COLD AND GENERALLY DRY. MODELS MAINTAIN THE UPPER RIDGE
WEST/UPPER TROUGH EAST REGIME. BOTH GFS AND ECMWF MOVE A
REINFORCING COLD FRONT THROUGH FRIDAY. GFS HAS A LITTLE MORE
MOISTURE WITH IT. GIVEN THE OVERALL PATTERN...WILL FAVOR NO POPS
AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE TAF FORECAST PERIOD.

SURFACE WIND PICKING UP A BIT AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE
NORTHWEST. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL CROSS THE AREA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING...POSSIBLY BRINGING A FEW SHOWERS BUT MOST
ASSOCIATED PRECIP NOT REACHING THE GROUND PER LATEST UPSTREAM
OBSERVATIONS. LOCAL MODEL SHOWS LIGHT SCATTERED SHOWERS ALONG THE
FRONT THIS AFTERNOON...WILL KEEP OUT OF TERMINAL FORECASTS FOR NOW
AND MONITOR RADAR TRENDS. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON AROUND
15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KNOTS...BECOMING WESTERLY 10 TO 15 KNOTS
THIS EVENING.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...BREEZY THRU WED.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...99
NEAR TERM...99
SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM...99
AVIATION...87



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