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Area Forecast Discussion

422
FXUS62 KCAE 031407
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1007 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARIES...AND PLENTIFUL
ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE...PROVIDING A GOOD
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AND NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
RADAR TRENDS SUPPORT A TRAINING RADAR PATTERN WAS SETTING UP WITH
SHOWERS AND STORMS SUSTAINED BY THE STRONG H85 JET. THE ANALYSIS
SHOWED PRECIPITABLE WATER JUST OVER 2 INCHES. WE HAVE POSTED A
FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR THE CENTRAL AND SOUTH PART OF THE FORECAST
AREA FOR TODAY.

THE LINE ECHO WAVE PATTERN APPROACHING THE CSRA AND SOUTH
MIDLANDS FROM THE WEST THIS MORNING INDICATES SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON. SHEAR WILL BE STRONG. THE
ANALYSIS SHOWED H85 WINDS 30 TO 40 KNOTS MOVING INTO THE AREA.
TORNADOES ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION BASED ON THIS SHEAR COMBINED
WITH SURFACE- BASED LI/S LIKELY LOWERING TO -4 TO -6 IN THE SOUTH
PART OF THE FORECAST AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE E CONUS TONIGHT AND
INTO THE WEEKEND...WITH A SERIES OF EMBEDDED SHORT WAVES PROGGED
TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO OUR NORTH AND
WEST SHOULD SLOWLY SLIP SOUTHWARD AND INTO AT LEAST THE NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE CWA THIS WEEKEND.  MODELS MAINTAIN PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES AROUND 1.6 TO 1.8 INCHES THROUGHOUT THE WEEKEND.
CHANCE TO GOOD CHANCE POPS STILL APPEARS TO BE REASONABLE. MOST
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WOULD APPEAR TO BE DIURNALLY FAVORED...THOUGH
TIMING OF SHORT WAVES AND PRESENCE OF SURFACE BOUNDARIES COULD
PROVIDE AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE AT OTHER TIMES.

BY SUNDAY NIGHT AND INTO MONDAY THE MODELS BEGIN TO SHIFT THE
MAIN UPPER FLOW TO OUR NORTH WITH WEAK SOUTHERN STREAM UPPER
TROUGHINESS REMAINING OVER THE SE CONUS/MID ATLANTIC. BOTH THE GFS
AND ECMWF SHOW AN UPPER LOW CUTTING OFF OVER THE CENTRAL APPS/MID
ATLANTIC SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. COMBINE THIS WILL A WEAK
FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT COULD SLIP SOUTH INTO OUR FORECAST AREA
DURING THIS PERIOD...CHANCE TO GOOD CHANCE POPS CONTINUE TO
APPEAR REASONABLE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH THE UPPER
FLOW PATTERN THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE LONGER TERM. MAIN UPPER
TROUGH APPEARS TO WEAKEN AND PUSH NORTHEASTWARD...WHICH WILL BRING
MORE OF A LESS AMPLIFIED AND MORE ZONAL FLOW TO THE SOUTHEAST.
AT THE SURFACE THE MAIN BOUNDARY THAT HAS BEEN ACROSS THE AREA
WILL BECOME MORE DIFFUSE. THE UPPER PATTERN HINTS AT ANOTHER
TROUGH DEVELOPING TOWARDS THURSDAY...WHICH WOULD LEAD TO THE
APPROACH OF ANOTHER SURFACE FRONT BY THE END OF THE WEEK. GENERALLY
ACCEPTED A BLEND HPC AND MOS GUIDANCE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR DURING THE TAF
PERIOD MAINLY ASSOCIATED WITH THE STRONG H85 JET. OBSERVATIONS
SUPPORT VFR CONDITIONS DURING MUCH OF THE TIME...BUT THERE WILL BE
PERIODS OF IFR CONDITIONS IN HEAVIER THUNDERSTORMS. VERY STRONG
WIND MAY MIX DOWN DURING SOME OF THE HEAVIER SHOWERS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...EXPECT RESTRICTIONS AT TIMES IN MAINLY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS AND EARLY MORNING STRATUS OR
FOG.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR SCZ018-020-
     025>028-030-031-035>038-041.
GA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR GAZ040-
     063>065-077.

&&

$$
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