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Area Forecast Discussion

838
FXUS62 KCAE 181321
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
921 AM EDT SAT APR 18 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
UNSETTLED AND WET WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND INTO MONDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON
MONDAY AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY BRINGING FAIR WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
MAIN UPPER SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED LARGER AREA OF RAIN HAS PUSHED
TO OUR EAST. AT THE SURFACE...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE AND WEAK LOW LEVEL
WEDGE REMAINS IN PLACE. SOME ADDITIONAL SHOWER ACTIVITY NOTED NEAR
WHAT APPEARS TO BE A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY NEAR THE CSRA INTO
CENTRAL GA. WILL EXPECT WEDGE TO TRY TO SLOWLY ERODE TODAY. LATEST
HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS GENERALLY WEAKEN THE SHOWER ACTIVITY NEAR
THE CSRA LATER THIS MORNING WHILE IT SHIFTS TO THE EAST...THEN
INDICATES ISOLATED TO SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS DEVELOPING WITH
DIURNAL HEATING LATER TODAY. INSTABILITY WILL BE WEAK BUT AN
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE POSSIBLE. CHANCE POPS APPEAR OK.
ANY RAIN ACTIVITY LATER TODAY GENERALLY APPEARS WOULD BE BRIEF AND
LIGHT.

NEXT SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FROM THE W/SW LATE TONIGHT. PLUME OF HIGH
MOISTURE WITH SURFACE WARM FRONT AND ASSOCIATED SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLE THUNDER APPEARS WILL MOVE INTO THE CSRA AFTER
MIDNIGHT...AND ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE FA BY DAYBREAK SUNDAY.
WILL INDICATE INCREASING POPS FROM THE WEST LATE TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
MODELS INDICTING THAT RAIN CHANCES WILL BE ON THE INCREASE LATER
TONIGHT AND THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY. SOUTHERLY SURFACE WINDS
COMBINED WITH SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS ALOFT WILL HELP TO TRANSPORT
PLENTY OF MOISTURE NORTHWARD AND INTO THE REGION BY SUNDAY
MORNING. MODELS ALL SHOWING CATEGORICAL POPS FOR MUCH OF THE DAY
ON SUNDAY...AND AT THIS POINT SEE NO REASON TO DIFFER. EXPECTING
MAINLY SHOWERS WITH THE SYSTEM ON SUNDAY...BUT CAN NOT RULE OUT AN
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM WITH GUSTY WINDS THROUGH THE DAY. DO EXPECT
TO HAVE A BREAK IN THE RAIN...WITH LOWER CHANCES SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY MORNING AS WE GET BETWEEN SYSTEMS. THEN A STRONGER COLD
FRONT WILL BE POISED TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION ON MONDAY. BEST
CHANCE FOR RAINFALL SHOULD BE DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.  WITH
STRONG LOW-LEVEL JET AND SOME TURNING OF THE WINDS ALOFT...THE
CENTRAL AND EASTERN COUNTIES ARE OUTLOOKED FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
STRONGER STORMS LATER IN THE DAY MONDAY. HAVE MAX TEMPS UPPER
60S NORTH TO UPPER 70S SOUTH ON SUNDAY...THEN SLIGHTLY WARMER
READINGS FORECAST DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY JUST AHEAD OF THE
FRONT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
BRINGING A REPRIEVE FROM THE UNSETTLED PATTERN. UPPER FLOW BECOMES
ZONAL TO SLIGHTLY NORTHWESTERLY FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK
WHICH IS AN MORE UNCERTAIN WEATHER PATTERN. THERE ARE SOME
INDICATIONS OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURNING ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
BUT GIVEN AN UNCERTAIN ZONAL PATTERN...ALONG WITH DIFFERENCES
BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF LATE IN THE PERIOD...WILL KEEP THE POPS
LOW FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VARIABLE CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION CURRENTLY...WITH MAINLY IFR TO
MVFR CIGS...AND MAINLY MVFR VSBYS. WILL EXPECT SOME INCREASE IN CIGS
AND GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT IN VSBYS LATER TODAY AS WEDGE TRIES TO
SLOWLY ERODE. IN THE NEAR TERM...RADAR INDICATES RAIN NEAR
AGS/DNL...AND WILL HANDLE WITH NEAR TERM TEMPO GROUP.
OTHERWISE...WILL EXPECTED ISOLATED TO SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS
DEVELOPING LATER TODAY...AND WILL HANDLE WITH VCSH FOR NOW. A WARM
FRONT WILL APPROACH AND MOVE INTO THE REGION LATE TONIGHT. PLENTIFUL
MOISTURE AND SE LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL PROMOTE LOWER CIGS AHEAD OF THE
WARM FRONT. HIGH CONFIDENCE OF IFR CIGS. EXPECTED RAIN AND
ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS AS WELL LATE TONIGHT TOWARDS EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING...CONTINUING THROUGH SUNDAY.

.EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...
EXPECT RAIN AND ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS SUNDAY...WITH POSSIBILITY OF
THUNDER IN THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO SW
AND INCREASE SUNDAY BEHIND THE WARM FRONT. BULK OF RAIN ACTIVITY
WILL SHIFT TO OUR EAST BY SUNDAY NIGHT...BUT LINGERING CIG
RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE SUN NT. A FRONT WILL COME THROUGH MONDAY...WITH
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...POSSIBLY SEVERE. BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS
WELL MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS TO AVIATION
EXPECTED TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$






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