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Area Forecast Discussion

701
FXUS62 KCAE 210541
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1241 AM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK DRY COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. COOL AND DRY
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FRIDAY...THEN BEGIN SHIFTING TO OUR EAST
SATURDAY. MOISTURE RETURN EXPECTED LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
ZONAL UPPER FLOW AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS OVER THE EASTERN
CONUS SHIFTS EAST INTO THE ATLANTIC. AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT
LOCATED ACROSS THE WESTERN CAROLINAS AND CENTRAL GEORGIA IS
FORECAST TO CROSS THE AREA. SOUTHEASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE FRONT
HAS BEEN SLOW THUS FAR. NO PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE
FRONT. WINDS WILL REMAIN LESS THAN 5 KNOTS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
PERIOD. BEHIND THE FRONT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK INTO THE
REGION. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL FALL DOWN TO THE MIDDLE 30S...WITH A
FEW AREAS POSSIBLY REACHING FREEZING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
COOL AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE. UPPER FLOW TO BECOME
GENERALLY ZONAL TODAY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER OF STATES AS UPPER
TROUGH CONTINUES TO LIFT TO OUR NE AND TROUGHINESS MOVES INTO THE
SW US. COOL DRY SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE MID
ATLANTIC AND CAROLINAS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
GFS/ECMWF CONTINUE TO INDICATE UPPER TROUGH TO SHIFT EAST INTO
THE CENTRAL CONUS SATURDAY THRU MONDAY...PUSHING INTO THE E CONUS
BY WED. UPPER HEIGHTS TO RISE OVER THE SE CONUS SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY. SURFACE HIGH TO SHIFT TO OUR EAST SATURDAY...WITH UPPER
ENERGY APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. A STRONG SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL
FLOW/MOISTURE FLUX EXPECTED TO RESULT IN CATEGORICAL RAIN CHANCES
WITH POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY. MODELS SUGGESTING SOUTHERLY
850MB JET OF 60 KNOTS WITH A WARM FRONT POSSIBLY MOVING NORTH
THROUGH THE REGION. IT IS TOO EARLY FOR HIGH CONFIDENCE...BUT
LOOKING AHEAD THERE IS AT LEAST SOME CONCERN FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR
SEVERE WEATHER...AND POSSIBLE LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN...ON SUNDAY.

MODELS MAINTAIN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS WITH A DEEP SW
FLOW FOR OUR REGION INTO MONDAY AND POSSIBLY TUESDAY...WITH
CONTINUED INDICATIONS OF ANOTHER FRONT AND ADDITIONAL UPPER ENERGY
AFFECTING THE REGION. MODELS INDICATE BEST MOISTURE TO PUSH
TOWARDS THE COAST BY MONDAY. DIFFERENCES BETWEEN LATEST GFS AND
PREVIOUS ECMWF LEADING TO LIMITED CONFIDENCE ON TIMING AND
PLACEMENT OF SYSTEMS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...BUT
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST CHANCE POPS IN ORDER FOR
MONDAY AND INTO TUESDAY. AT THIS TIME WILL LEAN TOWARDS SOLUTION
FROM PREVIOUS ECMWF SHOWING WEDNESDAY AND THANKSGIVING DAY DRY.
TEMPERATURES GENERALLY ABOVE NORMAL SUNDAY AND MONDAY...AND NEAR
NORMAL TUESDAY THROUGH THANKSGIVING DAY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE 24 HR FORECAST TAF PERIOD.

A WEAK AND DRY COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING
WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN BEHIND IT. LIGHT SOUTHWEST TO
WESTERLY WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST BY 09Z AND EVENTUALLY
SHIFT TO NORTHEAST BY 15Z AROUND 5 TO 10 KNOTS. FOG NOT EXPECTED
DUE TO WINDS STAYING UP...HIGHER CLOUDS IN THE AREA AND LOWERING
DEWPOINTS BEHIND THE FRONT.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...CEILING AND VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS
ARE LIKELY SATURDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
AFFECTS THE REGION.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR SCZ030.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$






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