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Area Forecast Discussion

876
FXUS62 KCAE 210716
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
316 AM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
FAIR WEATHER EXPECTED TODAY WITH A DRY ATMOSPHERE IN PLACE. A COLD
FRONT WILL SLOWLY ROLL THROUGH LATE TONIGHT AND MONDAY...PROVIDING
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM. COOLER AND
DRIER AIR WILL ENTER THE REGION BEHIND THE FRONT...MONDAY NIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. MOISTURE RETURN POSSIBLE LATE WEEK INTO NEXT
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
OVERNIGHT...UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW OVER COASTAL SOUTH CAROLINA AND
SURFACE WAVE OFFSHORE WILL LIFT NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD IN RESPONSE
TO A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. MESOANALYSIS
SHOWS A STRONG GRADIENT IN PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES RANGING FROM
1.8 INCHES ALONG THE COAST DOWN TO 0.70 IN THE WESTERN MIDLANDS.
THE DRIER AIR AND LOWER DEWPOINTS IN PLACE OVER THE MIDLANDS AND
CSRA IN COMBINATION WITH NORTHEASTERLY WINDS OVERNIGHT DUE TO THE
INCREASED PRESSURE GRADIENT SHOULD PREVENT ANY STRATUS OR FOG
DEVELOPMENT. COOL ADVECTION FROM THE NORTHEAST WILL ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO FALL INTO THE LOWER 60S...WITH A FEW OUTLYING
LOCATIONS POSSIBLY SEEING THE UPPER 50S.


TODAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD OVER THE AREA TODAY
PROVIDING FAIR WEATHER. ATMOSPHERE WILL REMAIN DRY WITH MOSTLY
SKIES EXPECTED. WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE FLOW OFF OF THE APPALACHIANS
WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO RISE SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE
CLIMATOLOGY...WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH OUR NORTHERN FA LATE TONIGHT...AND
SLOWLY ROLL THROUGH MONDAY. A DRY ATMOSPHERE AHEAD OF THE FRONT
ALONG WITH WITH NO LOW LEVEL ATLANTIC OR GULF TAP PROVIDES LIMITED
MOISTURE FOR THE FRONT TO WORK WITH. HOWEVER...WITH CONSIDERABLE
UPPER LIFT AHEAD OF THE SHORT WAVE...THOUGH MAINLY JUST TO OUR
NORTH...SLIGHT CHANCE POPS CANT BE RULED OUT...WITH ISOLATED
THUNDER POSSIBLE MAINLY S FA ALONG AND AHEAD OF FRONT DURING TIME
OF BEST DIURNAL HEATING. BLENDED A VARIETY OF MODEL SOURCES FOR
POP GRIDS USING LOCAL TOOL...GIVING SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR
PORTIONS OF THE FA. COOLER AND DRIER AIR TO FILTER IN LATE MONDAY
BEHIND THE FRONT. GUIDANCE INDICATES LOWS IN THE 50S FOR MON NT.
LAST SUB 60 READING AT COLUMBIA WAS 57 ON JUNE 2.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FRONT WILL STALL OFFSHORE. E CONUS UPPER TROUGH PROGGED TO RAPIDLY
LIFT NORTH LEAVING BEHIND A CUT OFF LOW OVER THE E GOMEX...WITH
UPPER HIGH BUILDING WEST TOWARDS THE SE US COAST. SURFACE HIGH
CENTER TO REMAIN ANCHORED OVER THE NE...RIDGING DOWN INTO OUR
REGION. MODEL GUIDANCE GENERALLY INDICATES UPPER CUT OFF LOW TO
SLOWLY LIFT NORTH WITH UPPER HIGH CENTER SHIFTING SLIGHTLY
WEST...RESULTING IN A MOISTURE INCREASE FOR OUR REGION LATE WEEK
INTO THE WEEKEND. SOME QUESTIONS REGARDING TIMING AND EXTENT OF
MOISTURE INCREASE...AND WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINING
ENTRENCHED ALONG THE EAST COAST...WEDGE CONDITIONS COULD DEVELOP.
GENERALLY BLENDED ONGOING FORECAST WITH LATEST GUIDANCE.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

LOW PRESSURE LOCATED OFF THE CAROLINA COAST WILL PUSH NORTHEASTWARD
AND FURTHER AWAY FROM THE REGION THROUGH THE DAY. LINGERING MID
AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS WILL PUSH AWAY FROM THE TAF SITES BY
DAYBREAK WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THROUGH THIS EVENING. CLOUDS WILL
BEGIN TO INCREASE TOWARD THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD AHEAD OF THE
NEXT FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THE FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA LATE TONIGHT
AND INTO MONDAY BUT MOISTURE APPEARS LIMITED. WINDS WILL REMAIN
LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH DAYBREAK AND WILL INCREASE TO WESTERLY
AROUND 8 KNOTS FROM 15Z THROUGH SUNSET. WESTERLY WINDS WILL BACK
TO SOUTHWESTERLY BY 06Z MONDAY. WITH DRIER AIR IN PLACE FOG IS NOT
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP EARLY THIS MORNING.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS TO AVIATION
EXPECTED MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$






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