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Area Forecast Discussion

493
FXUS62 KCAE 290758
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
358 AM EDT FRI APR 29 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH WILL BE IN THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. DRY UPPER RIDGING OVER THE AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT WILL
BEGIN TO SHIFT EAST OF THE AREA SATURDAY ALLOWING A MOISTURE
INCREASE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE MODELS KEEP WEAK SURFACE TROUGHING IN THE FORECAST AREA
THROUGH TONIGHT. HOWEVER...IT WILL REMAIN DRY WITH H85 NORTHWEST
DOWNSLOPE FLOW TODAY AND H5 RIDGING THROUGH TONIGHT. ALL OF THE
NAM AND GFS MOS PLUS SREF MEAN HAVE A POP LESS THAN 20 PERCENT.
FORECASTED A HIGH TEMPERATURE ABOVE THE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS BASED
ON THE RECENT COOL BIAS AND DOWNSLOPE FLOW. RELATIVE HUMIDITY
WILL LIKELY BE LOWER THAN GUIDANCE BECAUSE OF NORTHWEST FLOW AND
THE DEW POINT TEMPERATURE NEAR THE TOP OF THE MIXED LAYER.
FOLLOWED THE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS FOR THE LOW TEMPERATURE TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
SOME INCREASE IN MOISTURE WILL OCCUR SATURDAY WITH A LOW-LEVEL
SOUTHERLY FLOW AND THE UPPER RIDGE BEGINNING TO SHIFT EAST OF THE
REGION. THIS MOISTURE AND HEATING PLUS CONVERGENCE INTO A
LINGERING SURFACE TROUGH SUPPORTS POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS...BUT
WITH LIMITED MOISTURE THE CHANCE SHOULD REMAIN LOW. THE GUIDANCE
CONSENSUS SUPPORTED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS. THE CHANCE MAY INCREASE
SATURDAY NIGHT WITH A CONTINUED MOISTURE INCREASE AND POSSIBLE
MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH. AGAIN USED THE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS AND
FORECASTED CHANCE POPS. IT SHOULD NOT BE QUITE AS HOT SATURDAY
COMPARED TO THE PREVIOUS DAY WITH THE LOSS OF DOWNSLOPE FLOW AND
MORE CLOUDINESS. MIXING AND CLOUDINESS SATURDAY NIGHT SHOULD HELP
HOLD UP TEMPERATURES. USED THE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS FOR THE
TEMPERATURE FORECAST SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT DEPICTING HIGH MOISTURE IN
THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY ASSOCIATED WITH THE SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL
FLOW AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT PLUS AN UPPER TROUGH. THE GFS AND
ECMWF MOS HAVE POPS OF 50 TO 70 PERCENT. THE MODELS DISPLAYED THE
FRONT IN THE AREA MONDAY WITH LIMITED MOISTURE. THERE WAS
INCONSISTENCY WITH THE TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF MOISTURE ASSOCIATED
WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FORECAST TO TRACK NORTHEASTWARD FROM
THE GULF COAST REGION DURING THE REST OF THE MEDIUM-RANGE PERIOD.
THE ECMWF WAS FASTER DEVELOPING DEEP MOISTURE IN THE FORECAST AREA
TUESDAY. THE GFS...ECMWF...AND EKD MOS HAD TEMPERATURES MAINLY
ABOVE NORMAL SUNDAY AND MONDAY...AND NEAR NORMAL DURING THE REST
OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA TODAY. MAINLY CLEAR
SKY DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS AS DOWNSLOPE WINDS DEVELOP
ACROSS THE REGION. COULD SEE INTERMITTENT FOG AT AGS DURING THE
PRE-DAWN HOURS AS WINDS DIMINISH. WIND VARIABLE LESS THAN 10 KNOTS
EXPECTED FRIDAY WITH A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE AREA.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...SCATTERED CONVECTION EXPECTED SATURDAY
THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...99
NEAR TERM...99
SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM...99
AVIATION...99



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