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Area Forecast Discussion

746
FXUS62 KCAE 301046
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
646 AM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SUFFICIENT ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA AND AN
APPROACHING WEAK COLD FRONT WILL RESULT IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY...MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE
FRONT WILL SHIFT TOWARD THE COAST FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND.
HIGHEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY INTO THE
WEEKEND WILL BE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST MIDLANDS. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
ISOLATED SHOWERS CONTINUE EARLY THIS MORNING ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK
SURFACE TROUGH/CONVERGENCE/BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS AND HIGH
PRECIPITABLE WATER. SHOWERS SHOULD DISSIPATE TOWARD DAYBREAK.

EASTERN UPPER TROUGH AMPLIFIES A BIT AS SHORT WAVE ENERGY MOVES
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION. RIDGE SHIFTING A LITTLE FURTHER
WEST...SOUTHERN ROCKIES/DESERT SOUTHWEST. WEAK COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH THE AREA LATE TODAY...MOVE THROUGH DURING THE EVENING OR
OVERNIGHT. MODELS SUGGEST AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE THIS AFTERNOON
WITH WEAK SURFACE CONVERGENCE. INSTABILITY APPEARS TO BE WEAK TO
MODERATE AS TEMPERATURES ALOFT REMAIN RELATIVELY WARM. FORCING
ALOFT APPEARS WEAK. WILL CONTINUE CHANCE POPS...MAINLY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. MAIN THREAT HEAVY RAIN WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER AROUND
2 INCHES. TEMPERATURES FORECAST NEAR MOS CONSENSUS...MID TO UPPER
90S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXPECTED TO BECOME STATIONARY ACROSS EASTERN
SOUTH CAROLINA. MODEL DIFFERENCES NOTED...MODERATELY LARGE
STANDARD DEVIATIONS ENSEMBLE POP GUIDANCE. BUT TREND IS FOR DRIER
CONDITIONS IN THE WEST AND NORTH MIDLANDS AS FRONT/MOISTURE
APPEARS FURTHER TO THE EAST THAN PREVIOUS RUNS. WILL CONTINUE WITH
A CHANCE OF DIURNAL CONVECTION THROUGH THE PERIOD...BUT FOCUS IN
THE EAST. TEMPERATURES APPEAR TO REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
POSITION AND TIMING OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY STILL AN ISSUE. BUT FRONT
AND MOISTURE APPEARS TO FOCUS ALONG COASTAL CAROLINA AND MODELS
TRENDING DRIER FOR MIDLANDS/CSRA. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
AFTERNOON/EVENING THUNDERSTORMS...DECREASING CHANCE EARLY NEXT
WEEK WITH FOCUS IN THE EAST. TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS TO DOMINATE THE PERIOD.

SHOWERS HAVE DISSIPATED WITH LIMITED FOG DEVELOPING OVER THE PAST
COUPLE OF HOURS. FOG WHICH HAS DEVELOPED WILL DISSIPATE BY 13Z
WITH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD EXPECTED TO BE VFR. ANOTHER
ROUND OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING CONVECTION IS EXPECTED AS A WEAK
FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE TAF SITES DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON.
CONFIDENCE IN TIMING AND COVERAGE OF AFTERNOON CONVECTION HAS
INCREASED TO INCLUDE VCSH FOR ALL TAF SITES BETWEEN 18Z AND
30/04Z. WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL GENERALLY BE SOUTHERLY AT 6
KNOTS OR LESS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...INCREASING CONFIDENCE IN RESTRICTIONS
FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY IN MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

&&

$$
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