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Area Forecast Discussion

774
FXUS62 KCAE 250331
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1131 PM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST WILL KEEP DRY WEATHER
ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. DAYTIME HIGHS WILL BE
SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
DRY SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE RIDGING INTO THE
FORECAST AREA FROM THE WEST. SATELLITE TRENDS SUPPORT MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES. KEPT OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO MIDDLE 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
SURFACE RIDGE TO THE WEST EXTENDING INTO THE CAROLINAS. DRY
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT THROUGH THE PERIOD. APPEARS A WEAK TROUGH
MOVES THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY BUT MOISTURE QUITE
LIMITED...ONLY A FEW CLOUDS EXPECTED. UPPER RIDGE BUILDING IN FROM
THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AS UPPER LOW MOVES NORTHEAST OF NEW
ENGLAND. WEAK DOWNSLOPE FLOW AND WARM ADVECTION SO EXPECT WARMING
TREND. PREFER WARMER MAV GUIDANCE BASED ON COOL MET MODEL BIAS
LAST FEW DAYS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE MODELS SHOW DRY RIDGING DOMINATING DURING MUCH OF THE MEDIUM-
RANGE PERIOD. A COUPLE COLD FRONTS WITH INCREASED MOISTURE MAY AFFECT
THE AREA LATE IN THE PERIOD. WEAK FRONT WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
STRONGER FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT OR EARLY FRIDAY AS UPPER TROUGH
AMPLIFIES IN THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND EASTERN STATES. LATEST GFS
ENSEMBLE BACKED OFF ON POPS WEDNESDAY. SLIGHT CHANCE SHOWERS
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING EARLY AND WARMING AHEAD
OF THE COLD FRONT LATE IN THE PERIOD SUPPORTS ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MAINLY VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE/TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT.
SKIES WILL BE CLEAR WITH NEAR CALM WINDS. COULD SEE MVFR OR LOWER
FOG AT AGS 09Z-12Z AS RADIATIONAL COOLING TAKES PLACE. MODELS
STILL NOT INDICATING FOG...BUT FOG DEVELOPED LATE THURSDAY NIGHT.
GIVEN SAME AIR MASS...HAVE INDICATED MVFR FOG AT AGS.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST
WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS.

.EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...
NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS TO AVIATION EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$






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