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Area Forecast Discussion

244
FXUS62 KCAE 301815
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
215 PM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A PRESSURE RIDGE BEHIND THE FRONT WILL MOVE OVER THE FORECAST
AREA TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED SOUTH OF THE REGION
TUESDAY. ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT WITH LIMITED MOISTURE. HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE MID TO LATE
WEEK WILL RESULT IN AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND WARMER
TEMPERATURES BY LATE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE CLOUDINESS ACROSS THE AREA IS GRADUALLY DIMINISHING AS SOME
DRIER AIR IS FILTERING SOUTH/SOUTHEAST INTO THE REGION. A COLD
FRONT IS CURRENTLY PUSHING ACROSS THE MIDLANDS AND CSRA AND WILL BE
EAST OF THE AREA BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. SOME SCATTERED TO BROKEN
LOWER CLOUDS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT BUT ALL OF THE
PRECIPITATION HAS MOVED TO THE COAST. SKIES WILL BECOME MOSTLY SUNNY
BY LATER THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE
60S BY LATE AFTERNOON WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS. WINDS WILL BE FROM THE
WEST/SOUTHWEST FROM 10 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH. EXPECT
DIMINISHING WINDS DURING THE EVENING HOURS.


HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BE CENTERED NEAR THE FORECAST
AREA TONIGHT. NORTHWEST FLOW WILL OCCUR ALOFT WITH WEAK COLD ADVECTION.
EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WITH LIGHT WINDS. STRONG NOCTURNAL
COOLING SHOULD OCCUR. THE TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE WAS CLOSE WITH LOWS
MAINLY IN THE LOWER 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEASTERN
STATES...RESULTING NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT. MODELS INDICATE ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH
THE AREA LATE TUESDAY NIGHT/EARLY WEDNESDAY. FRONT HAS SOME UPPER
LEVEL SUPPORT BUT MOISTURE SHOULD BE LIMITED DUE TO RIDGE SOUTH OF
THE AREA. MOSTLY SUNNY THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON THEN INCREASE IN
CLOUDS AS SHORT WAVE TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. WARM
ADVECTION AHEAD OF FRONT SO TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL IN
THE MID 70S. MOS POPS SUGGEST ISOLATED SHOWERS IN THE CSRA REGION
ALTHOUGH MOISTURE LIMITED. OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES MODERATE AHEAD
OF FRONT. SURFACE RIDGE ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD WEDNESDAY WITH
SHORT WAVE RIDGE ALOFT. EAST FLOW MAY DEVELOP AND SOME CLOUDS MAY
ADVECT INLAND. GUIDANCE MAY BE A TAD WARM DUE TO EAST/NORTHEAST
FLOW. OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO MODERATE.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTING FARTHER OFF THE COAST SHOULD CIRCULATE
MORE OF AN ONSHORE FLOW INTO THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY. THIS
MOISTURE ALONG WITH APPROACH OF WARM FRONT/ISENTROPIC LIFT
SUPPORTS SHOWERS. THE ECMWF HAS INDICATED GREATER MOISTURE
COMPARED TO THE GFS. AN AVERAGE OF THE GFS AND ECMWF MOS SUPPORT
CHANCE POPS THURSDAY. MODELS ALSO SUPPORT THUNDERSTORMS...NAM
MODEL MOST UNSTABLE...ESPECIALLY IN THE CSRA.

THE GFS AND ECMWF INDICATE MUCH OF THE ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE LIFTING
NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY. THE GFS AND ECMWF MOS HAVE LESS
OF A SHOWER CHANCE.

THE MORE SIGNIFICANT SHOWER CHANCE MAY OCCUR FRIDAY NIGHT OR
SATURDAY ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT. HEATING AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT MAY ALSO HELP CAUSE THUNDERSTORMS. THE ECMWF HAS BEEN
FASTER WITH THIS FEATURE INDICATING SHOWERS FRIDAY NIGHT AND
DRYING SATURDAY. CHANCE POPS BOTH FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.

THE MODELS WERE CONSISTENT WITH A DRY PATTERN/COOLER BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

THE GFS AND ECMWF MOS HAVE TEMPERATURES NEAR OR ABOVE NORMAL
THROUGH THE MEDIUM-RANGE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL TAF SITES EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. STILL
SOME SCATTERED/BROKEN LOW CLOUDS PUSHING SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE
MIDLANDS AND CSRA. WILL CONTINUE WITH A PERIOD OF MVFR CONDITIONS AT
NEARLY ALL SITES THROUGH 19Z/20Z...THEN EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. A COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY BEGINNING TO
PUSH SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE CWA AND WINDS HAVE INCREASED FROM THE
WEST AT 10 TO 15 KTS WITH GUSTS AROUND 20 KTS. EXPECT THE BREEZY
CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON...BUT
DIMINISH QUICKLY AFTER SUNSET. MAINLY CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT WITH
LIGHT WINDS. ON TUESDAY...MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND LIGHT SOUTH WINDS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...MOSTLY
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD WITH INCREASING
MOISTURE AND RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY IN
SCATTERED SHOWERS AS ANOTHER FRONT APPROACHES AND MOVES THROUGH.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$







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