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Area Forecast Discussion

631
FXUS62 KCAE 010423
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1223 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
MOISTURE FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH LATE WEEK. THIS...COMBINED WITH A SERIES OF UPPER-LEVEL
DISTURBANCES AND AFTERNOON HEATING WILL KEEP A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THIS MORNING/...
DEEP MOISTURE HAS SHIFTED EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE MODELS
SHOW H5 RIDGING BUILDING TONIGHT. THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL BE WEAK. WE WILL HAVE LIGHT WIND WITH HIGH LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE BECAUSE OF THE RECENT RAIN. EXPECT AREAS OF FOG WILL
DEVELOP DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST
IS ON TRACK. LOWS SHOULD BE AROUND 70.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
SURFACE TROUGH CONTINUES ALONG THE COAST WITH MOISTURE STREAMING
NORTHEAST FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO AND SOUTHEAST ATLANTIC. DEEPER
MOISTURE AND STRONGER INSTABILITY REMAINS MAINLY EAST OF THE AREA.
WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGHS LIFTING TO THE NORTHEAST FROM THE GULF OF
MEXICO MAY TRIGGER CONVECTION...MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. HIGHER CHANCE FOR RAIN IN THE SOUTHEAST MIDLANDS.
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO RISE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...WITH
TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES IN THE SOUTH ATLANTIC. UPPER TROUGH
MOVING SOUTHEAST FROM NORTH CAROLINA THURSDAY WITH RIDGE BUILDING
IN THE MIDWEST. TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL ADVECT NORTH DURING THE
PERIOD. DEEPER MOISTURE POSSIBLE NEXT WEEKEND AS NORTHEAST/EAST
LOW-LEVEL FLOW DEVELOPS. ENSEMBLE POPS INDICATE RISING POPS.
EXPECT A CHANCE OF MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY. TEMPS GENERALLY CLOSE TO NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FOG ALREADY DEVELOPING AT AGS/OGB AND EXPECT PERIODS OF IFR/MVFR
THROUGH 14Z. SHOULD SEE FOG WITH MVFR VSBYS DEVELOP ACROSS THE
OTHER TAF SITES AROUND DAYBREAK GIVEN RECENT RAINFALL...CALM
WIND...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND RELATIVELY DRY AIR ALOFT. EXPECT VFR
CONDITIONS TO RETURN BY 14Z WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS DURING
THE DAYLIGHT HOURS. ISOLATED CONVECTION POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING...BUT PROBABILITY TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN TAFS ATTM.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN MAINLY EARLY
MORNING WITH FOG AND AFTERNOON AND EVENING SCATTERED SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

&&

$$



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