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Area Forecast Discussion

154
FXUS62 KCAE 010252
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1052 PM EDT THU JUL 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE OVER THE EASTERN HALF
OF THE COUNTRY INTO NEXT WEEK. AN EASTERLY WIND FLOW WILL BRING
INCREASING MOISTURE ALONG WITH A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM EARLIER THIS EVENING HAVE
MOVED INTO THE UPSTATE AND WESTERN NC...WITH ADDITIONAL SHOWERS
DEVELOPING NEAR THE COAST AND TRACKING TOWARD THE MIDLANDS. WITH
PWAT VALUES AT OR ABOVE 2 INCHES OVERNIGHT THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY
RAIN WILL CONTINUE...ESPECIALLY WITH LOW LEVEL SOUTHEASTERLY FROM
THE ATLANTIC AND UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVES MOVING IN FROM THE WEST.
BEST CHANCE FOR HEAVY RAIN REMAINS ACROSS THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN
MIDLANDS. HAVE REMAINED WITH POPS OVERNIGHT 50 PERCENT FOR THOSE
AREAS WITH AROUND 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF RAIN ELSEWHERE.
TEMPERATURES REMAIN IN THE LOWER 70S AT MOST LOCATIONS AND WITH
THE CLOUDINESS OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL ONLY FALL A FEW MORE DEGREES
INTO THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE UPPER TROUGH ANCHORED OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL BEGIN TO
DIG ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS INTO THE SOUTHEAST...ALLOWING DEEPER
MOISTURE TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL BE AROUND 2 INCHES. CLOUDS SHOULD
LIMIT ANY SEVERE POTENTIAL ALTHOUGH LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN MAY BE
POSSIBLE GIVEN HIGH PWAT VALUES AND SLOW STORM MOTION.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW CLIMATOLOGY WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S AND
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. FORECAST TEMPERATURES
CLOSE TO MODEL CONSENSUS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD LOOKS UNSETTLED AND WET INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
WITH AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION PROMOTING
DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEKEND WITH WEAK ONSHORE FLOW FROM THE ATLANTIC. THE UPPER FLOW
BECOMES MORE ZONAL LATER IN THE WEEK WITH DECREASING CHANCES OF
RAIN. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES REMAIN AROUND 2 INCHES OR GREATER
THROUGH TUESDAY...DECREASING TO LESS THAN 1.75 INCHES WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. CHANCES FOR RAIN REMAIN HIGH CHANCE TO LIKELY MONDAY...
DECREASING TO LOW CHANCE BY THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE
TO BE BELOW NORMAL THROUGH MUCH OF THE EXTENDED WITH HIGHS IN THE
MID TO UPPER 80S THROUGH WEDNESDAY...AND NEAR 90 THURSDAY.
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MAIN BAND OF LOCALLY HEAVY SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS
HAS SHIFTED NORTHWEST OF ALL OF THE TAF SITES THIS EVENING. CANNOT
RULE OUT SHOWERS AFFECTING THE TAF SITES TONIGHT SO HAVE INCLUDED
VCSH THROUGH 05Z AND WILL UPDATE AS NECESSARY. MOIST EASTERLY FLOW
FROM THE ATLANTIC WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY. PERIODS OF
ENHANCED SHOWERS WILL DEPEND ON WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCES CROSSING
THE AREA FROM TIME TO TIME. MOST MODELS INDICATING IFR/MVFR CIGS
DEVELOPING AFTER 01/05Z. BEST CHANCE FOR IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE
FROM 01/05Z TO 01/14Z. EXPECT STRATUS MAY LINGER THROUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON WITH CEILINGS IMPROVING BY 02/18Z.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
AT TIMES FROM FRIDAY INTO MONDAY DUE TO AN EASTERLY ISENTROPIC
FLOW OFF THE ATLANTIC.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$







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