« Back
NWS Peachtree City, Ga » Text Product » CAE Area Forecast Discussion


Printer-friendly Version     Surrounding:  BMX  MRX  FFC  CAE  TAE  
Current Version              Previous Versions:   1  2  3  4  5  6  7  8  9  

Area Forecast Discussion

586
FXUS62 KCAE 031755
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
155 PM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE FORECAST AREA WILL CROSS THE AREA
TONIGHT. DRYING WILL OCCUR BEHIND THE FRONT WEDNESDAY WITH A
REINFORCING COLD FRONT CROSSING THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MUCH
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR BEHIND THIS FRONT FOR
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THIS AFTERNOON...COLD FRONT CONTINUES APPROACHING THE AREA WITH
LOW CLOUDS HAVING MIXED OUT AND CUMULUS BEGINNING TO DEVELOP. CAE
WSR-88D IMAGERY SHOWS ISOLATED SHOWERS AROUND THE AREA WITH
MAJORITY OF ACTIVITY CURRENTLY ALONG THE COAST. EXPECT SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO AGAIN DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AS ANOTHER UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. MOISTURE A BIT
LESS TODAY AND WITH SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR ALOFT POTENTIAL FOR GUSTY
WINDS WITH THUNDERSTORMS IS SLIGHTLY INCREASED..WITH SECONDARY
POTENTIAL FOR HAIL AS WET BULB ZERO HEIGHTS ARE 10 TO 11 KFT.
AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MID 80S FOR MOST LOCATIONS.

TONIGHT...COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE FORECAST AREA EARLY
TONIGHT AND TOWARD THE COAST BY DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY MORNING.
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT AND COLD AIR ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH
THE UPPER TROUGH SUPPORT CONTINUED THUNDERSTORM CHANCE THROUGH
MIDNIGHT WITH CHANCES LOWERING TOWARD DAYBREAK AS THE FRONT MOVES
EAST OF THE AREA. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER
60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
DRYING WILL OCCUR BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WEDNESDAY. A REINFORCING
COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE STRONG UPPER-LEVEL CLOSED LOW
SINKING SOUTHWARD WILL PASS ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT AND VERY COLD AIR ALOFT MAY HELP
SUPPORT SHOWERS...MAINLY IN THE NORTH PART OF THE FORECAST AREA.
THE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS SUPPORTS CHANCE POPS. ALSO FOLLOWED THE
CONSENSUS FOR THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE GFS/ECMWF ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT AN UNUSUALLY STRONG
UPPER-LEVEL CLOSED LOW WILL DIVE SOUTHEASTWARD TO A POSITION NEAR
THE FORECAST AREA FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THIS WILL SUPPORT A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR POSSIBLY THUNDERSTORMS. VERY COLD AIR ALOFT
WITH H5 TEMPERATURES RANGING NEAR -26 C COULD HELP SUPPORT LOW-
TOPPED CONVECTION WITH GRAUPEL OR SMALL HAIL MAINLY THURSDAY. THIS
COULD BE A FACTOR FRIDAY IF THE UPPER COLD POOL PERSISTS OVER THE
AREA. THE GFS...ECMWF...AND EKD MOS INDICATE TEMPERATURES MUCH
BELOW NORMAL THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...WITH MODERATION BEGINNING
SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHOWERS HAVE BEGUN TO DEVELOP AROUND THE TAF SITES AND EXPECT
FURTHER DEVELOPMENT TO THUNDERSTORMS BETWEEN 18 AND 19Z. FEW
SHOWERS CURRENTLY JUST WEST OF AGS/DNL WILL MOVE IN AROUND 18Z
WITH SHOWERS SOUTHWEST OF CAE/CUB MOVING INTO THE TAF SITES
BETWEEN 1830 AND 19Z. EXPECT MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS WITH
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS...ALONG WITH
POTENTIAL FOR GUSTY WINDS AROUND THUNDERSTORMS. POTENTIAL FOR
STRATUS AND FOG DEVELOPING TOWARD DAYBREAK...HOWEVER WITH WINDS
REMAINING AROUND 5 KNOTS AND MID AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS OVER THE
REGION HAVE KEPT MENTION OF RESTRICTIONS OUT OF TAFS. WIND GUSTS
UP TO 18 KNOTS POSSIBLE THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...99
NEAR TERM...99
SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM...99
AVIATION...99



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.