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Area Forecast Discussion

558
FXUS62 KCAE 211017
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
617 AM EDT MON APR 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A PRESSURE RIDGE WILL EXTEND THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA TODAY AND
TONIGHT. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND THE FRONT WILL DOMINATE
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A DRY SURFACE PRESSURE RIDGE WILL EXTEND THROUGH THE FORECAST
AREA TODAY. AN H5 RIDGE WILL ALSO BE OVER THE AREA. IT WILL BE A
SUNNY AND WARM DAY. THE TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE WAS CLOSE WITH HIGHS
IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
THE SURFACE PRESSURE RIDGE WILL WEAKEN IN THE AREA TONIGHT.
ALOFT...AN UPPER TROUGH WILL APPROACH WITH AN INCREASE IN HIGH
CLOUDINESS. THE NAM AND GFS SHOW THE COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE
AREA TUESDAY AFTERNOON OR EVENING. THE NAM WAS A LITTLE SLOWER
WITH THE TIMING. BOTH MODELS INDICATE H85 WESTERLY FLOW WITH GULF
MOISTURE PARTLY CUT OFF. THE NAM AND GFS MOS POPS HAVE TRENDED
HIGHER BUT ARE STILL IN THE CHANCE CATEGORY. KEPT CHANCE POPS
BELIEVING COVERAGE WILL BE LIMITED BECAUSE OF A LACK OF DEEP
MOISTURE AND WEAK CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT. THE DIURNAL TIMING
FAVORS THUNDERSTORMS. LIMITED MOISTURE WILL LIKELY KEEP
INSTABILITY WEAK. THE NAM INDICATES SURFACE-BASED LI/S AROUND -3.
THE MODELS INDICATE WEAK SHEAR WITH H85 WINDS NEAR 20 KNOTS.
THEREFORE...THE CHANCE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IS LOW. DRYING
BEHIND THE FRONT SHOULD DOMINATE LATE TUESDAY NIGHT. THE GUIDANCE
TEMPERATURES WERE CONSISTENT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE MODELS WERE CONSISTENT SHOWING DRY RIDGING DOMINATING WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY. THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOWED SOME MOISTURE INCREASE
ASSOCIATED WITH A DIFFUSE FRONT FRIDAY. THE MODELS HAVE NOT BEEN
CONSISTENT FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. THE GFS SHOWED A COLD FRONT
WITH LIMITED MOISTURE SATURDAY. THE ECMWF KEPT THE FRONT WELL
NORTHWEST OF THE AREA THROUGH SUNDAY...ALTHOUGH PREVIOUS RUNS WERE
MORE PROGRESSIVE. THE GFS...ECMWF...AND EKD MOS PLUS GFS ENSEMBLE
MEAN POPS WERE VERY LOW THROUGH THE PERIOD. WE KEPT THE DRY
FORECAST BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW BECAUSE OF THE MODEL INCONSISTENCY.
THE GFS...ECMWF...AND EKD MOS INDICATED NEAR OR ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES DURING THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR.

UPPER AND SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OFFSHORE THE CAROLINAS WILL CONTINUE
TO MOVE SLOWLY EAST AWAY FROM OUR REGION...LEAVING IN ITS WAKE A
WEAK SURFACE RIDGE AXIS. WINDS STAYING UP EARLY THIS MORNING
PRECLUDING FOG FORMATION.

.EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...A WEAK FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
ASSOCIATED MVFR RESTRICTIONS.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$






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