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Area Forecast Discussion

017
FXUS62 KCAE 270549
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1249 AM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST TONIGHT WILL CONTINUE
MOVING NORTHEASTWARD. A PRESSURE RIDGE IN THE CENTRAL PART OF THE
COUNTRY WILL EXTEND ALONG THE EAST COAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
A STRENGTHENING SURFACE LOW CENTERED OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST
WILL CONTINUE MOVING NORTH AND AWAY FROM THE AREA. GUSTY WINDS
ACROSS THE AREA WITH STRONGEST WINDS IN THE CSRA ASSOCIATED WITH
850 MB JETMAX. LAKE WATERS RELATIVELY COOL...SO STRONGEST WINDS
NEAR-SHORE...GUSTS TO 25 TO 30 KTS POSSIBLE. HIGHEST CONFIDENCE
FOR STRONGEST WINDS IN THE CSRA...CLARKS HILL/THURMOND LAKE. LAKE
WIND ADVISORY CONTINUES UNTIL 10 PM. WINDS WILL STILL REMAIN
BREEZY ACROSS THE AREA AFTER 10 PM WITH GOOD COLD AIR
ADVECTION...25 TO 30 KT LOW LEVEL JET.

PERIODS OF CLOUDINESS AND COLD ADVECTION TONIGHT AS UPPER
NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH WILL BE OFF THE COAST. STILL A COUPLE OF
SHORT WAVES TO ROTATE ACROSS THE AREA ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE
UPPER TROUGH. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S
WITH DIMINISHING WINDS LATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
THE LARGE UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES OVER THE EASTERN CONUS TUESDAY
WITH ITS DEEP SURFACE AND UPPER LOW CENTER MOVING NORTHWARD FROM
THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION TO COASTAL SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. PERIODS
OF CLOUDS EXPECTED TUESDAY AS SHORT WAVES ROTATE AROUND BASE OF
UPPER TROUGH. MOISTURE OVERALL APPEARS QUITE LIMITED...SO DRY
FORECAST. TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL TUESDAY DUE TO COLD ADVECTION.

THE UPPER TROUGH WILL BE OFF THE EAST COAST TUESDAY NIGHT WITH
HEIGHTS RISING FOR WEDNESDAY. COOL HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE
REGION WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. VERY DRY AIR MASS
OVERSPREADING THE REGION WITH DEW POINTS IN THE TEENS. WILL KEEP
THE FORECAST DRY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S. LOWS
TUESDAY NIGHT IN THE LOW TO MID 30S AND IN THE MID 20S TO AROUND
30 FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MODELS COMING INTO AGREEMENT FOR SYSTEM THURSDAY EVENING
OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. GFS AND ECMWF TRACK LOW PRESSURE
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY THURSDAY NIGHT.
BOTH MODELS BRING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY
NIGHT HAVE INCLUDED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN THROUGH THE THURSDAY
NIGHT HOURS AS TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE WELL ABOVE FREEZING.

COLDER HIGH PRESSURE EXPECTED TO BUILD IN FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THE
ECMWF AND GFS BRING ANOTHER COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY INTO
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. THE TIMING OF THIS SYSTEM AT THIS POINT
SEEMS TO BE BY MID DAY SUNDAY AND MOVING OUT BY MONDAY AFTERNOON.

HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE LONG
TERM PERIOD WITH LOW TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL. CURRENTLY THE PRECIP
FOR THE SUNDAY EVENT IS EXPECTED TO BE RAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

LOW PRESSURE WELL OFFSHORE OF NJ WILL CONTINUE MOVING AWAY FROM
THE REGION AS WRAP AROUND MOISTURE CROSSES THE TAF SITES. THIS
WILL RESULT IN MID AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS CROSSING THE AREA
OVERNIGHT WITH SOME STRATO-CU AROUND 5 KFT DEVELOPING DURING THE
LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS. WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED TO
NORTHWESTERLY AROUND 9 KNOTS AND WILL REMAIN SO THROUGH 15Z WHEN
GUSTS TO 15 KNOTS WILL RETURN TO THE AREA. EXPECT WIND SPEEDS AND
GUSTS TO DIMINISH WITH SUNSET RETURNING TO NORTHWESTERLY AROUND 7
KNOTS FROM 23Z THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT
AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$







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