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Area Forecast Discussion

192
FXUS62 KCAE 050748
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
348 AM EDT SAT SEP 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN TO OUR SOUTH AND WEST...WHILE AN
UPPER-LEVEL LOW DEVELOPS OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES. A COLD
FRONT AND INCREASING MOISTURE WILL BRING INCREASING CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...ALONG WITH A TREND
TOWARDS COOLER TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
WEAK UPPER TROUGH TO REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. SHORTWAVE
ENERGY AND DRY AIR ALOFT ALLOWING STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS OVER
THE UPSTATE TO CONTINUE. THE AIRMASS CONTINUES TO BE MODERATELY
UNSTABLE WITH DOWNDRAFT CAPE OVER 1000 ACROSS THE UPSTATE. THESE
STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE NORTHWEST PORTION OF FORECAST
AREA THIS EVENING.

THE THREAT FOR STORMS SHOULD CONTINUE AFTER MIDNIGHT AS A BACKDOOR
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE MIDLANDS AND CSRA. WILL KEEP CHANCE
TO SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVERNIGHT.

CLOUD COVER AND MIXING SHOULD KEEP OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S
TO LOWER 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
THE BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY SHIFT SOUTHWARD
THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA ON SATURDAY PROVIDING A FOCUS FOR
CONVECTION.  MOISTURE LIKELY TO BE POOLING ALONG THE BOUNDARY WITH
PWAT VALUES 1.8 TO NEAR 2 INCHES AND SHORTWAVE ENERGY ASSOCIATED
WITH A POSSIBLE WEAK DEVELOPING CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL WARRANT
CHANCE POPS...ESPECIALLY IN THE CSRA AND WESTERN MIDLANDS.
ABUNDANT CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION WILL LIMIT THE AMOUNT OF
INSOLATION AND RESULT IN COOLER...NEAR NORMAL MAX TEMPERATURES IN
THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 80S. SCATTERED SHOWERS LIKELY TO LINGER
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA INTO SATURDAY NIGHT
WHILE SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH. OVERNIGHT
LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
RELATIVELY ACTIVE WEATHER EXPECTED EARLY IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD
WITH A WEAK UPPER LOW OVER THE SOUTHEAST WHICH DISSIPATES BY
MIDWEEK. ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH OVER THE GREAT PLAINS WILL MOVE
TOWARDS THE EAST COAST LATE IN THE WEEK WITH AN ASSOCIATED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY APPROACHING THE TN VALLEY BY FRIDAY. PERSISTENT EASTERLY
FLOW OFF THE ATLANTIC SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY WILL PROVIDE
SUFFICIENT MOISTURE ALONG WITH WEAK VORTICITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE
UPPER TROUGH TO WARRANT AT LEAST DIURNAL SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. POPS INCREASE TO HIGH CHANCE BY FRIDAY AS THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES CLOSER TO THE FORECAST AREA. TEMPERATURES
DURING THIS PERIOD SHOULD BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL WITH
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90...AND OVERNIGHT LOWS GENERALLY
AROUND 70.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
RADAR INDICATES THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WINDING DOWN. THINK FOG
THREAT TOWARDS DAYBREAK WILL BE GENERALLY HAMPERED BY LINGERING
CLOUD COVER AND POSSIBLY SOME WIND. SATELLITE TRENDS INDICATE
CLODUS COULD DISSIPATE ENOUGH OVER THE CSRA TO PROMOTE SOME FOG AT
FOG PRONE AGS. AFTER ANY MORNING FOG DISSIPATES...VFR CONDITIONS
GENERALLY EXPECTED SATURDAY...WITH A CHANCE OF AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY NEAR THE CSRA...AGS/DNL. CONFIDENCE OF SUCH
AFFECTING THE TERMINALS NOT SUFFICIENT TO INCLUDE MENTION IN THE
TAFS AT THIS TIME. E/NE LOW LEVEL FLOW OFF THE ATLANTIC MAY
PROMOTE SOME LOWER CIGS BY LATE SAT NIGHT/SUNDAY MORNING.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...LATE NIGHT/MORNING FOG/STRATUS
POSSIBLE...WITH A CHANCE OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

&&

$$



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