National Weather Service Weather Forecast Office

Area Forecast Discussion

955
FXUS62 KCAE 250532
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
131 AM EDT SAT MAY 25 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER THE REGION FOR THE
WEEKEND...BRINGING BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DRY WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
SKIES WILL BE CLEAR...AIRMASS DRY...BUT WINDS NOT EXPECTED TO BE
COMPLETELY CALM. SO NOT EXACTLY AN IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING
SCENARIO OVERNIGHT. WINDS ARE LIKELY TO FALL TO NEAR CALM DURING
THE PREDAWN HOURS ON SATURDAY WHICH COULD ALLOW SOME OF THE
OUTLYING AREAS TO DROP SEVERAL DEGREES JUST BEFORE SUNRISE.
OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURE WILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL...WITH
POSSIBLE RECORD LOWS BEING REACHED IF WINDS CAN GO CALM NEAR
SUNRISE AND DEWPOINTS DROP LOWER THAN FORECAST. STILL THINK LOWS
WILL REMAIN A FEW DEGREES ABOVE RECORD LOWS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. SHORT
WAVE EXITS TO THE EAST SATURDAY AS COOL HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. AIRMASS BEGINS TO MODIFY
BY SUNDAY AS OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO THE SOUTH RETURNS NORTHWARD
AS A WARM FRONT. MOSTLY CLEAR SATURDAY BUT MORE CLOUDS BY SUNDAY
BUT NO RAIN AS ATMOSPHERE IS STILL DRY BOTH SUNDAY AND SUNDAY
NIGHT. COOL SATURDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S...INCREASE TO THE
LOWER 80S BY SUNDAY. STILL COOL SATURDAY NIGHT BUT NOT AS COOL AS
FRIDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING UPPER RIDGE
OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY MONDAY BUILDING EASTWARD ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGH THURSDAY. THE RIDGE BEGINS TO MOVE MORE TOWARD THE
EAST COAST FRIDAY. ALSO...A WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA MONDAY LIFTS TO THE NORTHEAST AND AWAY FROM THE AREA
TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS UPPER RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO HOLD ANY
FRONTS WELL TO THE NORTH AND WEST DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST LOW LEVEL WIND FLOW WILL BRING MORE WARM
UNSTABLE AIR TO THE REGION AND THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BECOME
CONDITIONALLY UNSTABLE. STILL DRY MONDAY THOUGH BUT INCLUDED
DIURNAL CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. UPPER RIDGE
PRETTY STRONG AND JUST ABOUT RIGHT OVER THE AREA FRIDAY...SO LEFT
DRY FOR FRIDAY AS WELL. HIGHS IN THE MID 80S MONDAY AND TUESDAY
AND THE MID TO UPPER 80S WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS
MAINLY IN THE LOWER 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD
ALONG WITH DRY AIR. THIS WILL RESULT IN CLEAR SKIES THROUGH MUCH
OF THE PERIOD WITH SOME CIRRUS DRIFTING ACROSS THE AREA LATE IN
THE PERIOD. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE. WITH THE DRY AIR
OVER THE REGION FOG IS NOT EXPECTED.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS TO AVIATION
EXPECTED SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.CLIMATE...
MUCH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR TONIGHT WITH LOWS IN
THE 40S.

COLUMBIA METRO AIRPORT RECORD LOW FOR MAY 25TH...45 SET IN 1967
AUGUSTA BUSH FIELD RECORD LOW FOR MAY 25TH.......43 SET IN 1951

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$