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Area Forecast Discussion

164
FXUS62 KCAE 241043
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
643 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE PRESSURE RIDGE WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL CONTINUE TO
DOMINATE. THE AIR MASS WILL REMAIN DRY BUT HIGH CLOUDINESS
ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER TROUGH WILL OCCUR. LEANED TOWARD THE MAV
MOS FOR THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST. THIS GUIDANCE HAS BEEN THE BEST
LATELY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
THE MODELS SHOW THE SURFACE RIDGE NEAR THE FORECAST AREA WITH
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. IT WILL REMAIN DRY. LEANED TOWARD THE MAV
MOS FOR THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST BASED ON RECENT VERIFICATION.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE MODELS SHOW DRY RIDGING DOMINATING DURING MUCH OF THE MEDIUM-
RANGE PERIOD. A COLD FRONT WITH INCREASED MOISTURE MAY AFFECT THE
AREA LATE IN THE PERIOD. THE GFS...ECMWF...AND EKD MOS HAVE POPS
20 TO 30 PERCENT WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING EARLY
AND WARMING AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT LATE IN THE PERIOD SUPPORTS
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SOME HIGH CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA FOR MUCH OF THE TAF
PERIOD AS AN UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. ONLY AGS IS
HAVING ANY ISSUES WITH EARLY MORNING FOG THIS MORNING...WITH BRIEF
IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS PERSISTING UNTIL AROUND 12Z-13Z. OTHERWISE
GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE AFTER DAYBREAK.
IFR/MVFR FOG POSSIBLE EARLY SATURDAY MORNING AT AGS AND OGB...BUT NOT
ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO MENTION IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME.

.EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...
NO IMPACTS TO AVIATION EXPECTED.


&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$






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