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Area Forecast Discussion

763
FXUS62 KCAE 070021
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
721 PM EST FRI MAR 6 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE ACROSS THE AREA FOR THE WEEKEND. RAIN
CHANCES WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION AS WE GO THROUGH MUCH OF
NEXT WEEK. SPRINGLIKE TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO BE ABLE TO RE-ENTER
THE REGION ONCE AGAIN THROUGH MUCH OF THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE BUILDING INTO THE AREA OVERNIGHT AS
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHES FURTHER TO THE SOUTH. IR SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS A FEW CLOUDS CURRENTLY LINGERING ACROSS THE REGION
WITH MOST OF THE CLOUDS OVER THE LOW COUNTRY THROUGH SOUTHERN GA.
WITH SKIES REMAINING CLEAR OVERNIGHT AND WINDS ALREADY LIGHT AND
VARIABLE TEMPERATURES WILL FALL QUICKLY. EXPECT OVERNIGHT LOWS IN
THE MID 20S FOR MOST LOCATIONS IN THE NORTHERN MIDLANDS WITH UPPER
20S FOR THE SOUTHERN MIDLANDS AND CSRA...TYPICALLY COOLER
OUTLYING LOCATIONS MAY REACH THE LOWER 20S. RECORD LOW
TEMPERATURES FOR MARCH 7 AT CAE IS 20 SO DO NOT EXPECT TO SET THE
RECORD.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
THE WEEKEND.  THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE
SURFACE HIGH TO BEGIN THE DAY SATURDAY.  THIS WILL BEGIN THE AIRMASS
MODIFICATION AS TURN WINDS OUT OF THE SOUTH THROUGHOUT THE
DAY...BRINGING A WARM ADVECTION PATTERN BACK TO THE REGION.
TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY WILL MODERATE CLOSE TO AROUND 60 THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON.  IT WILL BE EVEN WARMER ON SUNDAY AS TEMPERATURES
WILL MAKE A RUN FOR THE 70S ONCE AGAIN.  OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL ALSO
MODERATE EACH NIGHT.  MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO RETURN TO THE REGION
THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY...AND THERE WILL BE AN INCREASE IN THE CHANCE
FOR SOME RAINFALL VERY LATE SUNDAY NIGHT.  BEST CHANCES STILL APPEAR
TO REMAIN JUST OFF TO THE WEST AND SOUTH DURING SUNDAY NIGHT THOUGH.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE LONGER TERM CONTINUES TO LOOK SOMEWHAT WET THROUGH THE PERIOD.
BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF CONTINUE TO BRING MOISTURE AND WEAK
SHORTWAVES THROUGH THE REGION THROUGHOUT THE WEEK.  SHOWERS WILL BE
HIT AND MISS SOME DAYS...AND A LITTLE MORE ORGANIZED OTHERS.
TUESDAY LOOKS LIKE THE BEST CHANCE FOR ORGANIZED RAINFALL AS A
SHORTWAVE WORKS ITS WAY NORTHWARD FROM THE GULF.  BOTH MODELS TO
BRING SOME UPPER LEVEL RIDGING INTO THE REGION FROM THE EAST FROM
THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.  THIS MAY
SUPPRESS SOME OF THE RAINFALL ACROSS THE CWA.  EVEN SO...THE MODEL
BLENDS GENERALLY KEEP A POP RANGE OF 30 TO 40 PERCENT RANGE FROM
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.  TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL FEEL
MUCH MORE SPRINGLIKE THROUGHOUT THE WEEK...WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS IN
THE 60S...TO POSSIBLY LOWER 70S IN SOME AREAS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.

MID LEVEL CLOUDS HAVE NOW MOVED EAST OF ALL TAF SITES. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL CONTINUE TO FEED IN FROM THE WEST DURING THE PERIOD. WINDS
OVERNIGHT WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE ACROSS THE REGION. FOG IS NOT
EXPECTED DUE TO THE DRY AIRMASS.

SURFACE WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY ON SATURDAY BUT ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW 10 KTS. THE NEXT SYSTEM TO IMPACT
AVIATION WILL ENTER THE REGION MONDAY AS MOISTURE FLOWS UP FROM
THE GULF.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...CIG/VSBY RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS A WEDGE PATTERN DEVELOPS.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$
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