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Area Forecast Discussion

FXUS62 KCAE 290831

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
431 AM EDT FRI JUL 29 2016

Upper level ridge over the region will begin moving eastward today
with moisture returning to the area over the weekend. With
moisture returning to the area chances of thunderstorms will
increase through the weekend. Temperatures will lower a few
degrees...however afternoon high temperatures will remain in the
mid to upper 90s through early next week.


Upper level ridge along the east coast will move into the Atlantic
Basin today as an upper level trough digs into the MS River
Valley. As the ridge moves eastward moisture will begin returning
to the forecast area with temperatures again in the upper 90s to
around 100. Instability will be moderate this afternoon...however
upper level support will still be lacking. As such have remained
with slight chance pops across the area for this afternoon into
this evening. Potential for severe thunderstorms is low but with
some mid level dry air remaining there is potential for damaging
wind gusts. Short wave approaching the area this evening could
keep thunderstorms in the area through the evening hours...however
with the limited upper level support expect convection to
dissipate by midnight. Low temperatures Friday night will be in
the mid 70s.


Upper level trough will continue moving eastward and be over the
eastern US Saturday evening trough Sunday. Moisture will continue
increasing with pwat values on Sunday around 2 inches and possibly
higher. Although temperatures will be slightly cooler with high in
the mid 90s instability will be strong...with the exception of
limited divergence aloft. Upper level temperatures will also be a
bit cooler with 700mb temperatures lowering to 7C to 8C and 500mb
around -6C. As such expect increasing chance of thunderstorms
each day and severe threat remaining low with damaging gusts the
main threat. Daytime high will be in the mid 90s with overnight
lows generally in the mid 70s.


Models are in good agreement with a moist air mass and upper level
trough over the region through much of the long term. Upper level
ridge will begin building back into the region late Wednesday into
Thursday. This will keep chances of mainly afternoon and evening
thunderstorms across the area with severe potential remaining low.
Temperatures will remain above normal with daytime highs in the
lower to middle 90s and overnight lows in the middle 70s.


Outside of isolated thunderstorms Friday, high confidence in VFR
conditions through the 24 hour TAF period.

Models indicate a 30 to 35 kt LLJ tonight which will promote low
level mixing. Surface winds should stay SW around 5 kts throughout
the night. Low level mixing and dry air will prevent fog/stratus

Upper level ridging over the region will weaken as a few
shortwaves move through the trough in the central US. Increased
atmospheric moisture and convergence along a surface trough will
allow for isolated convection Friday afternoon. Limited
instability and relatively warm mid-levels suggests any
thunderstorms would be weak and isolated. Low threat for
thunderstorms to impact terminals. Scattered high level cumulus
in the afternoon. Expect W/WSW winds to gust up to 20 kts. LAMP
guidance suggests higher gusts will be possible but capped the
TAFS at 20 kts given the pressure gradient may be weaker than the
previous day.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Low potential for restrictions in
afternoon and evening convection each day.





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