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Area Forecast Discussion

504
FXUS62 KCAE 111949
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
249 PM EST THU FEB 11 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A DRY AIR MASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE FORECAST AREA TODAY.
MOISTURE WILL INCREASE TONIGHT AHEAD OF WEAK LOW PRESSURE. THE
LOW WILL BE NEAR THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST EARLY FRIDAY AND FARTHER
OFF THE COAST FRIDAY AFTERNOON. MUCH OF THE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED
WITH THE LOW WILL BE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THIS AFTERNOON...AIRMASS REMAINS DRY ACROSS THE REGION. WINDS WILL
REMAIN LIGHT AND OUT OF THE WEST. THERE WILL CONTINUE TO BE SOME
SCATTERED CLOUD COVER. TEMPERATURES STILL ON TRACK TO CLIMB INTO
THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S.

TONIGHT...MUCH OF THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS WILL REMAIN DRY.
MODELS DO BEGIN TO DEVELOP AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE GA/SC
COAST ALONG A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY TOWARDS MORNING. DO NOT
ANTICIPATE ANY SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL BY MORNING...BUT CAN NOT RULE
OUT A FEW SPRINKLES ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES BY SUNRISE.
CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE LATE TONIGHT AS THIS LOW DEVELOPS.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF
OF THE CWA...AND SHOULD DROP TO JUST BELOW FREEZING ACROSS THE
NORTHERN HALF. NO PRECIP EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTH OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
FRIDAY...THE SURFACE LOW ALONG THE GA/SC COAST WILL CONTINUE TO
DEVELOP AND MOVE NORTHEASTWARD DURING THE MORNING HOURS. MUCH OF
THE MOISTURE WITH THIS LOW WILL REMAIN EAST OF THE CWA. MOST
AREAS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTH WILL BE AT OR ABOVE FREEZING.
HOWEVER...TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE NORTHEAST AT SUNRISE WILL BE
NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW FREEZING. USING THE TOP DOWN
METHOD...MODELS DO BRING IN A LIGHT MIXTURE OF RAIN/SNOW/ICE
PELLETS/FREEZING RAIN OVER PORTIONS OF THE NORTHEAST BETWEEN 12Z
AND 17Z. THE CHANCE FOR ANY PRECIP REMAINS LOW AT THIS TIME...WITH
POPS OF ONLY 20-30 PERCENT...AND EVEN IF THE PRECIP DOES FALL THE
QPF AMOUNTS WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL REMAIN LIGHT. MODELS STILL
SHOWING LIGHT QPF AMOUNTS...WITH MOST INDICATING QPF OF 0.01 OF AN
INCH OR LESS. DRYING WILL BEGIN BY THE AFTERNOON AS THE LOW PUSHES
AWAY FROM THE AREA. AFTERNOON HIGHS CLIMB INTO THE LOWER 40S
NORTH...AROUND 50 CENTRAL...AND MIDDLE 50S SOUTH.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE
MOVING AWAY FROM THE REGION WITH HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR
BUILDING IN. AS THE HIGH BUILDS IN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
REMAIN TIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY RESULTING IN NORTH-
NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH WITH GUSTS OF 15-20 MPH FRIDAY NIGHT
AND SATURDAY. WINDS WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE
GRADIENT BEGINS TO RELAX...HOWEVER WINDS WILL REMAIN 5 TO 10 MPH
INTO THE EARLY SUNDAY MORNING HOURS. WITH COOLER AND DRIER AIR
ADVECTING INTO THE REGION CLOUDS WILL DIMINISH RESULTING IN MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGH TEMPERATURES
SATURDAY IN THE NORTHERN MIDLANDS WILL BE IN THE LOW 40S AND WARM
TO THE UPPER 40S TO NEAR 50 IN THE CSRA. OVERNIGHT LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 20S NORTH TO MID 30S
SOUTH ON FRIDAY NIGHT AND THE UPPER TEENS TO MID 20S SATURDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SOME UNCERTAINTY REMAINS IN THE LONG TERM AS MODELS HAVE MADE
SIGNIFICANT RUN TO RUN CHANGES CONCERNING THE POTENTIAL SYSTEM FRO
MONDAY AND TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL DEPART THE AREA ON SUNDAY
WITH CLOUDS INCREASING SUNDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM. THE LOW IS CURRENTLY FORECAST TO RAPIDLY DEEPEN OVER
NORTHERN MS/AL ON MONDAY...ACROSS NORTHERN GA AND THE SC UPSTATE
MONDAY NIGHT THEN NORTHEASTWARD AWAY FROM THE REGION TUESDAY.
CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW WITH THIS SYSTEM DUE TO THE RUN TO RUN
CHANGES THE MODELS HAVE MADE. WITH THE CURRENT TRACK OF THE LOW
TEMPERATURES WOULD BE SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT AND
KEEP ANY POTENTIAL OF FREEZING RAIN OR MIXED PRECIPITATION ACROSS
THE FAR NORTHERN MIDLANDS. AS SUCH HAVE REMAINED WITH HIGH CHANCE
AND LIKELY POPS...HOWEVER PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL BE DETERMINED AS
MODEL CONSISTENCY INCREASES. HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR WILL
AGAIN BUILD INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE LONG TERM WILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL SUNDAY THEN WARM
EACH TO BECOMING NEAR NORMAL ON THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR FORECAST THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD.

GENERALLY LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS REMAIN THROUGH THE AFTERNOON BEFORE
BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE BY SUNSET. LATER TONIGHT AS A SURFACE
LOW DEVELOPS OFF THE SC/GA COAST...SURFACE WINDS WILL BEGIN TO
TURN MORE NORTHEASTERLY...REMAINING THAT WAY THROUGH MUCH OF
FRIDAY. CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE LATE TONIGHT AS THE LOW
DEVELOPS...BUT MOST GUIDANCE KEEPS CEILINGS VFR THROUGH THE
PERIOD. HAVE LEANED THAT DIRECTION WITH LATEST TAFS. THE REMAINS A
SLIGHT CHANCE THAT A PERIOD OF UPPER END MVFR CEILINGS MAY DEVELOP
AT KOGB DURING THE LATE MORNING FRIDAY.  CAN NOT RULE OUT A LIGHT
SPRINKLE AT SOME POINT FRIDAY MORNING AT TAF SITES...ESPECIALLY AT
KOGB...BUT BULK OF PRECIP WILL REMAIN EAST OF ALL SITES. HAVE NOT
MENTIONED ANY PRECIP WITH LATEST TAFS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AFFECTS THE REGION. CIG/VSBY
RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE MONDAY AS A SOUTHERN STREAM LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM CROSSES THE REGION.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$



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