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Area Forecast Discussion

FXUS62 KCAE 280239

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
1039 PM EDT FRI MAY 27 2016

High pressure will remain over the forecast area through tonight.
Newly formed tropical depression two is forecast to become
tropical storm Bonnie on Saturday and push into the coastal plain
early Sunday. Chances of rain will increase over the weekend with
potential for locally heavy rainfall.


Afternoon diurnal cumulus clouds are dissipating with the approach
of sunset and a band of much drier air moves westward over the
region with precipitable water values falling to around a half
inch overnight. Moisture will begin rapidly moving onshore during
the predawn hours Saturday in advance of the approaching tropical
depression two which may become TS Bonnie Saturday morning.
Skies will be mostly clear through much of the night allowing for
strong radiational cooling and overnight lows slightly cooler than
last night in the lower 60s. Higher clouds will approach during
the predawn hours but should not have a significant impact on the
min temperatures.


Tropical depression two will be steady moving northwestward
approaching the coast on Saturday while a plume of deep tropical
moisture moves inland over the forecast area with precipitable
water values pushing well over 1.5 inches. Expecting Saturday
morning to remain mainly dry across the cwa, then increasing
shower and thunderstorm chances across the east during the
afternoon. Rain/thunderstorm chances continue Sunday into Monday
as the low slowly moves through the region. Highest chances for
precip will remain greatest across the eastern counties, with pops
trending lower the further west you go. Trended towards the WPC
qpf amounts through the period due to wide spread in the forecast
qpf guidance. With the potential slow movement to the low, can
not rule out periods of heavy rainfall which could produce
localized flooding.

Used the guidance consensus for the temperature forecast.


Much uncertainty in the longer term forecast period. Models
differ on the upper air solutions through the middle of the week,
with the gfs showing a weak ridge north of the cwa and a weak low
just east. The ecmwf shows a trough east of the area, and high
pressure over the region. All in all, can not rule out any
isolated or scattered afternoon showers and thunderstorms any day
next week. Temperature forecast was a general blend of guidance,
which is generally at or above normal through the period.


Early morning mvfr fog possible at AGS/OGB...otherwise VFR through
at least 18z. Ceilings may be lowering in the afternoon with some
potential for restrictions late in the period although confidence

Air mass mainly dry overnight although latest satellite at 02z
showing strato-cumulus/alto cumulus developing near coast...may
advect inland. Some potential for fog at AGS/ogb toward morning
but latest lamp guidance and potential cloudiness from coast suggests
a lower threat at OGB. Tropical Depression offshore of South
Carolina will be moving Northwest toward the coast tonight and
Saturday. Mid level clouds may increase over much of the region during
the morning with lower ceilings in the afternoon...possibly
resulting in MVFR conditions late in the period. Greatest threat
for restrictions appears to be near the OGB terminal after 20z as
a few showers move inland. Winds will be light and variable
overnight then become northeast/east 10 knots or less Saturday

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Restrictions probable in showers and
thunderstorms Saturday night through Monday as a tropical system
moves into the area from the Atlantic Basin.





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