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Area Forecast Discussion

296
FXUS62 KCAE 251623
AFDCAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
1223 PM EDT THU AUG 25 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Upper-level high pressure will dominate and maintain dry
conditions through Saturday. Moisture will gradually increase late
this weekend into next week, as a low-level onshore flow brings a
slight chance of showers or thunderstorms.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Surface high pressure will continue ridging into the forecast area
from the northeast. Upper ridging will also continue over the
region. Moisture will remain too shallow for showers. There may be
enough low-level moisture combined with nocturnal cooling for fog
late tonight, mainly at a few locations in the river valleys.
Some of the NAM and GFS MOS have fog during the early morning
hours. The temperature guidance was consistent.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Upper high center will shift to the E/NE into the W Carolinas/Srn
Appalachians. Surface high pressure along the eastern seaboard
will weaken and shift east, leaving a weak ridge axis along the
coast. A cold front will approach the TN Valley by late Friday but
should remain north of our area. Moisture appears limited with the
upper high in place. Precipitation is not expected across the
forecast area through Friday night.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Latest GFS indicates upper high center will slowly weaken and
lift to the north into early next week. Increased low-level flow
off the Atlantic may lead to mainly isolated to slight chance of
showers/thunderstorms through Monday. Lots of uncertainty towards
the end of the period as the ECMWF and Canadian models show a
possible tropical system affecting the Southeast Tuesday into
Wednesday. The GFS shows a weaker system than either the ECMWF or
Canadian scenarios. Will raise pops into the chance category
Tuesday and Wednesday. Temperatures generally above normal through
the weekend, becoming more normal later in the period with
increased cloud cover and better chances for rain.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Expect generally VFR conditions through the period, although
fog may occur late tonight at the river valley terminals of AGS
and OGB.

Surface high pressure will continue ridging into the forecast area
from the northeast. Upper ridging will also continue over the
region. Moisture will remain too shallow for showers. There may be
enough low-level moisture combined with nocturnal cooling for fog
late tonight, mainly at the river valley terminals of AGS and
OGB. The NAM and GFS MOS indicate MVFR fog in the 09z to 12z time
frame. Followed the NAM and GFS MOS for the wind forecast. Expect
mainly light easterly wind.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...There may be widespread stratus and
fog associated with low-level moisture in an onshore flow during
the early morning hours Saturday through Monday.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
SC...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...99
NEAR TERM...99
SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM...99
AVIATION...99



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