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Area Forecast Discussion

990
FXUS62 KCAE 050622
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
222 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH TODAY AND MONDAY. PLENTY OF
MOISTURE IS AVAILALBE SO MAINLY AFTERNOON/EVENING THUNDERSTORMS
ARE POSSIBLE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK WITH MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
MODELS HAVE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH PULLING OFF TO THE NORTHEAST TODAY
AND MONDAY. WV SHOWS A COUPLE OF S/WVS OVER AL/GA WHICH WILL SWING
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. RRQ OF WEAK H5 JET WILL
ASSIST IN AFTERNOON/EVENING CONVECTION AND HIGH PW`S AROUND 2.0
WILL CUASE HEAVY DOWNPOURS WITH ANY TSTMS. H85 JET NOT AS STRONG
AS YESTERDAY SO ANY WINDS THAT MIX DOWN IN TSTMS SHOULD BE BELOW
SEVERE CRITERA BUT CAN`T RULE OUT SOME ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS.
AFTERNOON TEMPS WILL RISE TO AROUND 90 WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS AROUND
70.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST...REMAINING JUST TO OUR WEST
SUNDAY AND LIFTING AND MOVING ENE THROUGH OUR REGION SUNDAY
NT/MONDAY. THIS ALONG WITH PLENTIFUL ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE AND WEAK
SURFACE BOUNDARIES ARE EXPECTED TO PROMOTE GOOD CHANCES OF SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MODELS INDICATE UPPER TROUGH TO SHIFT TO OUR EAST TUESDAY...WITH
SOME SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR ENTERING THE REGION. UPPER HIGH TO THEN
GRADUALLY BUILD NORTH INTO OUR REGION MID TO LATE WEEK. THIS
APPEARS WILL ALLOW A RETURN TO A MORE TYPICAL SUMMERLIKE PATTERN
FOR OUR FORECAST AREA OF WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED MAINLY
DIURNAL THUNDERSTORMS...WITH NEAR OR JUST ABOVE NORMAL MAX
TEMPS...THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

NEXT CHANCE OF CONVECTION WILL ARRIVE FROM 16Z THROUGH THE END OF
THE TAF PERIOD AS THE SHORT WAVES IN AL AND GA MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA. HAVE INCLUDED VCSH AT ALL TAF SITES FROM 16Z ONWARD. WINDS
WILL BECOME SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY AROUND 8 KNOTS AT 13Z WITH
GUSTS UP TO 16 KNOTS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...LOW POTENTIAL FOR EARLY MORNING
STRATUS OR FOG WITH MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS TUESDAY ONWARD AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

&&

$$
99



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