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Area Forecast Discussion

524
FXUS62 KCAE 290810
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
410 AM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
BERMUDA HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO RIDGE INTO THE REGION THROUGH THE
WEEKEND WITH A CHANCE OF DIURNAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY
SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA AROUND THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
MODELS INDICATE RISING HEIGHTS TODAY AND TONIGHT AS A MID AND
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES. RISING
HEIGHTS COUPLED WITH A SLIGHTLY MORE STABLE AIRMASS AND A RELATIVE
MINIMUM IN PWAT SHOULD KEEP THE THREAT OF CONVECTION LOW ACROSS
THE MIDLANDS AND CSRA. AFTERNOON HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM
THE MID 80S TO AROUND 90 DEGREES UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES.
KEPT OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID AND UPPER 60S WHICH AGREE WITH MOS
CONSENSUS AND PERSISTENCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES
WITH UPPER TROUGHING OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS. MODELS INDICATE THE
RETURN OF INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE ON SATURDAY...ALONG WITH A
CHANCE FOR MAINLY DIURNAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. IT APPEARS
THE FOCUS WILL BE ALONG THE SEA BREEZE...SO WILL HOLD SLIGHTLY
HIGHER POPS ACROSS THE EASTERN MIDLANDS. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL WARM
INTO THE UPPER 80S AND LOWER 90S WITH LOWS IN THE MID AND UPPER
60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
BOTH THE GFS AND THE ECMWF KEEP THE UPPER RIDGE ALONG THE
SOUTHEAST COAST EARLY NEXT WEEK. AT THE SURFACE...MODELS TRY TO
BRING A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT INTO THE REGION. THE GFS SOLUTION
WOULD BRING A DEEPER SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW...WHICH WOULD
BRING GULF MOISTURE INTO THE AREA AS THE FRONT MOVES IN. WINDS
WITH THE ECMWF WOULD BE MORE WESTERLY AND A LITTLE DRIER. IT STILL
LOOKS LIKE A CHANCE FOR CONVECTION EACH DAY SO WILL CONTINUE TO
CARRY 30-50 PERCENT POPS EACH AFTERNOON.

HIGH TEMPS IN THE UPPER 80S AND LOWER 90S SUNDAY AND MONDAY ARE
EXPECTED TO COOL A FEW DEGREES FOR THE REMAINDER OF NEXT WEEK.
NIGHTTIME LOWS HOLD IN THE 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS GENERALLY EXPECTED THROUGH THE 24 HOUR TAF
FORECAST PERIOD...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF LOCALIZED BRIEF MVFR VSBYS
POSSIBLE AT FOG PRONE AGS/OGB EARLY THIS MORNING.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD SLIGHTLY OVER THE REGION
TODAY WITH RELATIVE DRY AIR REMAINING IN PLACE...REDUCING DIURNAL
CONVECTIVE COVERAGE. ONLY AN ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA AT BEST.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING FOG POSSIBLE.
INCREASING CHANCES OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

&&

$$



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