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Area Forecast Discussion

872
FXUS62 KCAE 260241
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1041 PM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DRIER WEATHER RETURNS FOR SUNDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTH ACROSS
THE REGION. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SIGNIFICANT RAIN MOVES IN FOR THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS MOISTURE INCREASES AHEAD OF A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM COMING OUT OF THE GULF OF MEXICO.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS POSITIONED JUST SOUTH OF THE NC/SC BORDER
TONIGHT. OBSERVATIONS SHOW NORTHEASTERLY WINDS NORTH OF THE
BOUNDARY AND SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS FOR A MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST
AREA WHICH IS SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY. EXPECT ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
STORMS TO CONTINUE BEHIND THE QLCS DEPARTING OFF THE COAST. THE
HIGHEST MOISTURE IS CURRENTLY ALONG THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN
COUNTIES. MESOANALYSIS ALSO SHOWS WEAK TO MODERATE INSTABILITY
REMAINS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH LIFTED
INDICES AS LOW AS -4/-5 IN THE SOUTHERNMOST PART OF THE FA. EXPECT
THIS AREA TO SEE A MAJORITY OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER THE NEXT
HOUR OR TWO. THE HRRR SEEMS TO BE HANDLING THE ACTIVITY FAIRLY
WELL AND SHOWS MOST OF THE ACTIVITY DEPARTING THE FORECAST AREA BY
06Z SO HAVE TRENDED POPS DOWN OVERNIGHT. OBSERVATIONS SHOW LOW
VISIBILITIES IN LANCASTER AND CHESTERFIELD COUNTIES CLOSE TO THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY ALTHOUGH LOW LEVEL JET SHOULD LIMIT FOG POTENTIAL
SOME OVERNIGHT. OVERNIGHT LOWS REMAIN MILD...ONLY FALLING INTO THE
LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
SOME LINGERING SHOWERS/STORMS POSSIBLE INTO SUNDAY WITH THE NORTHERN
MIDLANDS LIKELY TO BE MORE FAVORED SUNDAY AS THE SURFACE LOW
SINKS SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS VA/NC AND OFFSHORE BY SUNDAY EVENING.
MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY AND COLD 500 MB TEMPS NOTED ON
SUNDAY BUT MOISTURE MAY BE LACKING TO SUPPORT MUCH CONVECTION SO
WILL CONTINUE WITH LOW CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE NORTHERN MIDLANDS.

SUNDAY LOOKS TO BE A WARM DAY WITH SOME SUNSHINE AND DOWNSLOPING
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WITH HIGHS BACK INTO THE 80S. THE EXCEPTION
WILL BE THE EXTREME NORTHERN MIDLANDS WHERE COOLER BEHIND THE AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE SHOULD HOLD TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MEDIUM-RANGE MODELS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE OVERALL
PATTERN NEXT WEEK. ON MON/TUE THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE BETWEEN
THE DEPARTING SYSTEM OFF THE EAST COAST AND YET ANOTHER SLOW
MOVING CLOSED UPPER LOW EJECTING EASTWARD OUT OF THE SOUTHWESTERN
STATES. EXPECT DRY WEATHER AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH A
PERSISTENT NORTHERLY FLOW AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING INTO
THE AREA FROM THE NORTH. THE SOUTHERN STREAM CLOSED LOW WILL BEGIN
TO OPEN AND DRIFT EASTWARD EVENTUALLY PHASING WITH NORTHERN STREAM
ENERGY BRINGING UNSETTLED WEATHER TO OUR AREA TUESDAY INTO
THURSDAY. HOWEVER...THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE LATEST
GFS RUN AND THE PREVIOUS ECMWF FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE PERIOD.
THE PREVIOUS ECMWF SHOWS SOME LINGERING PRECIPITATION OVER THE
AREA FRIDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA SATURDAY. THE LATEST
GFS SHOWS DRY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY...BUT ALSO SHOWS ANOTHER CUT-OFF UPPER LOW FORMING OVER
THE EASTERN GULF COAST. THIS FEATURE COULD SPREAD PRECIPITATION
BACK INTO SC BY LATE SATURDAY. DUE TO UNCERTAINTY...WILL KEEP
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY DRY AT THIS TIME. TEMPERATURES GENERALLY AT OR
JUST BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE MAIN LINE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS HAS SHIFTED OFF THE COAST
TONIGHT WITH ISOLATED ACTIVITY REMAINING ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN PORTION
OF THE FORECAST AREA. NO RESTRICTIONS AT THE TAF SITES CURRENTLY
BUT CANNOT RULE OUT A SHOWER OR STORM AFFECTING AGS/DNL SO HAVE
HAVE A TEMPO GROUP THROUGH 03Z. MODELS INDICATE POTENTIAL FOR
RESTRICTIONS RETURNING AFTER 06Z ALTHOUGH BELIEVE LOW LEVEL JET
WILL LIMIT FOG POTENTIAL. HAVE ADDED MVFR RESTRICTIONS AT AGS/DNL
TOWARDS DAYBREAK ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT THIS TIME. THE LOW-
LEVEL JET SUPPORTS KEEPING LLWS IN THE TERMINAL FORECASTS
OVERNIGHT. USED THE NAM FOR THE MAGNITUDE OF THE SHEAR. THE MODELS
SHOW THE BOUNDARY SINKING SOUTHWARD SUNDAY BUT WITH SHALLOW
MOISTURE. THE THUNDERSTORM CHANCE STILL APPEARED TOO LOW TO
INCLUDE IN THE TERMINAL FORECAST. BASED ON THE GFS LAMP AND THE
NAM BUFKIT MOMENTUM TRANSFER TOOL WE INCLUDED WIND GUSTS NEAR 24
KNOTS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS EXPECTED MONDAY
AND TUESDAY. AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT MAY RESULT IN WIDESPREAD
RESTRICTIONS WEDNESDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$






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