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Area Forecast Discussion

964
FXUS62 KCAE 240242
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1038 PM EDT WED APR 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER FOR TONIGHT AND THURSDAY
BEFORE THE NEXT FRONT APPROACHES THE SOUTHEAST U.S THURSDAY NIGHT.
THE WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA ON FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL SHIFT EAST TOWARD
THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE
GREAT LAKES RIDGING IN AT THE SURFACE. SKIES WILL REMAIN CLEAR
OVERNIGHT. NEAR CALM WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHEAST 5 TO 10 MPH.
TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE MID 40S NORTH TO LOWER 50S SOUTH.
THE THREAT OF FOG WILL BE REDUCED IN THE DRIER AIRMASS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA THURSDAY MORNING THEN MOVE
OFFSHORE THURSDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA FROM
THE WEST AND BE LOCATED JUST WEST OF THE APPALACHIAN MTNS BY 12Z
FRIDAY. NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME ZONAL THURSDAY AND A
TROUGH WILL MOVE TOWARD THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT. IT WILL REMAIN
DRY BUT CLOUDS WILL INCREASE THURSDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING FRONT. HIGHS IN THE MID 70S ON THURSDAY. LOWS WILL BE
IN THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60 THURSDAY NIGHT WITH INCREASING CLOUD
COVER AND MIXING INDUCED BY LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS. A WEAK COLD
FRONT MOVES OVER THE AREA FRIDAY. ALTHOUGH THE AIRMASS BECOMES
WEAKLY TO MODERATELY UNSTABLE FRIDAY AFTERNOON, LOW-LEVEL SHEAR IS
WEAK AND PWS ARE LESS THAN 1.50 INCHES. LOW CHANCE POPS LOOK
REASONABLE FOR FRIDAY. WEAK DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE
AREA SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES GENERALLY CLOSE TO OR JUST ABOVE
NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
EXPECT SOME UNCERTAINTY DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS A CUTOFF
UPPER LOW OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS SLOWLY MOVES EASTWARD INTO THE
OH VALLEY BY WEDNESDAY. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL INCREASE ACROSS
THE REGION AS WELL AS CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
TEMPERATURES GENERALLY CLOSE TO NORMAL BUT COOLER TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED BY MID-WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. SKIES WILL BE CLEAR
OVERNIGHT. FOG SHOULD NOT BE A THREAT GIVEN NORTHEAST WINDS
SPREADING A DRY AIRMASS ACROSS THE REGION. WINDS ARE FORECAST
TO SHIFT SOUTHEAST THURSDAY AFTERNOON...ALLOWING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE TO INCREASE.

.EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MOISTURE INCREASING AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT MAY PROVIDE CIG/VSBY RESTRICTIONS LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. THE FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION
FRIDAY EVENING WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS/TSTMS AND ASSOCIATED
RESTRICTIONS PRECEDING. RESTRICTIONS ARE AGAIN POSSIBLE MONDAY AHEAD
OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPING OVER THE MIDDLE OF THE COUNTRY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$





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