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Area Forecast Discussion

824
FXUS62 KCAE 041954
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
354 PM EDT TUE AUG 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO SPIN ALONG THE CAROLINA
COASTLINES TONIGHT. THIS LOW WILL TRACK NORTHEAST AND AWAY FROM
THE REGION WEDNESDAY.  A RELATIVELY DRY ATMOSPHERE WILL LIMIT
PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR OUR FORECAST AREA. AN UPPER TROUGH AND
INCREASED MOISTURE WILL LEAD TO BETTER PRECIPITATION CHANCES
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...FOLLOWED BY EXPECTATIONS OF DRIER AIR
RETURNING FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
SURFACE LOW OFF THE CAROLINA COAST...NEAR THE SC/NC STATE
LINE...WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY SPIN AND MEANDER. BEST MOISTURE
REMAINS CLOSER TO COASTAL CAROLINA...AND CENTRAL GEORGIA. THIS
SHOULD KEEP ANY SHOWER/STORM FORMATION OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST AND
WEST OF THE CWA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WINDS GENERALLY LIGHT AND
VARIABLE...WITH LIGHT NORTH OR NORTHWESTERLY FLOW POSSIBLE.
AFTERNOON HIGHS ON TRACK FOR THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 90S. OVERNIGHT
LOWS TONIGHT FALLING INTO THE MIDDLE 70S ONCE AGAIN UNDER MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES...DRY AIR...AND LIGHT WINDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
WEAK UPPER TROUGH TO REMAIN OVER THE REGION WITH A WEAK SURFACE
TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHEAST. A GENERALLY DRY ATMOSPHERE TO REMAIN
IN PLACE...THOUGH THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS OF SOME MOISTURE
INCREASE DURING THE DAY ACROSS SOUTHERN AND WESTERN AREAS AS SOME
MOISTURE SHIFTS SLOWLY NORTH AROUND UPPER HIGH CENTER TO OUR SE
AND AHEAD OF AN UPPER TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE NW. WILL
RELEGATE SLIGHT CHANCE DIURNAL POPS MAINLY TO THE WESTERN AND
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FA. DUE TO RECENT DRY CONDITIONS...WILL
CONTINUE TO LEAN TOWARDS WARMER GUIDANCE FOR MAX TEMPS...WITH MAX
TEMPS NEAR OR JUST OVER 100 POSSIBLE WED.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
UPPER RIDGE CENTER WILL SHIFT EAST FROM THE FOUR CORNERS REGION
TO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH MEAN UPPER LONG
WAVE TROUGH REMAINING OVER THE E CONUS. SIGNIFICANT MID LEVEL
UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO APPROACH THE REGION
THURSDAY AND MOVE THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN
ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE PROGGED AS MOISTURE FROM THE GULF SHIFTS
NORTH AHEAD OF IT. GFS PROJECTED PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
INCREASE TO AROUND 2 INCHES MAINLY FOR THURSDAY. POPS WILL
INCREASE TO AT LEAST CHANCE...WITH BEST CHANCES FRIDAY. GFS SHOWS
BEST MOISTURE SHIFTING OFFSHORE SATURDAY AS UPPER TROUGH MOVES
OFFSHORE WITH APPEARANCE OF GENERALLY DRY AIR REMAINING OVER THE
REGION SUNDAY. SO...MINIMAL POPS EXPECTED SAT/SUN. WEAK UPPER
IMPULSES ALONG WITH SOME EXPECTED INCREASE IN MOISTURE MAY PROVIDE
SOME SLIGHT INCREASE IN POPS MON/TUE...BUT CONFIDENCE REMAINS
LIMITED. FORECAST HIGH TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE
90S...WITH EARLY MORNING LOWS GENERALLY IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE
70S.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THE NEXT 24 HOURS. BRIEF MVFR AT
AGS/OGB WEDNESDAY MORNING AROUND SUNRISE.

AREA OF LOW PRESSURE REMAINS ALONG COAST NEAR THE SC/NC STATE
LINE WILL SLOWLY TRACK NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE NC COAST. STILL
EXPECTING SHOWERS AND STORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW WILL REMAIN
OFF TO THE EAST OF ALL TERMINALS.

STRONG HEATING MAY HELP SUPPORT AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT WITH DRY AIR AND SHALLOW MOISTURE IN PLACE...THE
CHANCE IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE TERMINAL FORECASTS. LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS THROUGH TONIGHT...THEN WINDS TURN SOUTHWESTERLY
WEDNESDAY. WITH SOME LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE...ALONG WITH
DRIER AIR ALOFT...THERE COULD BE FOG TONIGHT IN SOME LOCATIONS.
MITIGATING FACTOR WILL BE THE DEVELOPMENT OF A LOW-LEVEL JET
BETWEEN 20-30 KNOTS...WHICH COULD KEEP ENOUGH MIXING TO LIMIT THE
FOG. FOR NOW WILL MENTION A PERIOD OF 5SM VISIBILITIES AT THE
USUAL LOCATIONS AGS/OGB...BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT THAT HIGH FOR
LOWER VISIBILITIES.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN LATE
NIGHT/EARLY MORNING FOG AND AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

&&

$$
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