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Area Forecast Discussion

411
FXUS62 KCAE 212135
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
535 PM EDT THU AUG 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A BUILDING UPPER RIDGE WILL LEAD TO CONTINUED HOT CONDITIONS
FRIDAY. A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SW INTO THE NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL MIDLANDS SATURDAY AFTERNOON...AND SHIFT TOWARDS THE CSRA
SUNDAY. THIS WILL LEAD TO A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND
AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WITH TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO MORE NORMAL
LEVELS BEHIND IT. THE FRONT WILL SHIFT TO OUR SOUTH EARLY TO MID
NEXT WEEK...LEADING TO GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER WITH NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
UPPER RIDGE AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY/GULF COAST BUILDING INTO THE REGION. LATE
AFTERNOON VISIBLE SATELLITE CONTINUES TO INDICATE SUBSIDENCE
ACROSS THE AREA WITH VERY FEW CLOUDS.

WEAK INSTABILITY AND WARM TEMPERATURES ALOFT. LFC REMAINS
HIGH...CONVECTIVE TEMPS HIGH AND TRIGGER LACKING. CURRENT RAP AND
NAM MODEL STILL INDICATING A WEAKENING SHORT WAVE CROSS THE AREA
AFTER 22Z. 88D REGIONAL COMPOSITE SHOWS A FEW
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE UPSTATE AND GEORGIA...BUT THE
MIDLANDS AND CSRA REMAIN PRECIP FREE. HOWEVER WITH S/W...AN ISOLATED
EARLY EVENING THUNDERSTORM IS STILL POSSIBLE WITH HE BEST CHANCES
ALONG AND WEST OF THE SAVANNAH RIVER INTO CENTRAL GEORGIA. HAVE
KEPT POPS LESS THAN 15 PERCENT WITH NO MENTION IN THE FORECAST.

EXPECT SOME DEBRIS CLOUDS TONIGHT FROM UPSTREAM CONVECTION.
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S ARE FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
LITTLE CHANGE FRIDAY. UPPER RIDGE WILL REMAIN CENTERED JUST TO OUR
WEST...WITH SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS THE COASTAL CAROLINAS. THIS AND
A LOW LEVEL DOWNSLOPE FLOW WILL LEAD TO CONTINUED HOT MAX TEMPS.
MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE MAX TEMPS NEAR 100 DEGREES AGAIN MOST
AREAS...AND ALSO CONTINUES TO INDICATES DEW POINTS MIXING DOWN
INTO THE 60S ACROSS MOST OF OUR FA TO NEAR 70 SE FA...KEEPING HEAT
INDICES BELOW OUR HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA OF 110F. ONLY ISOLATED TO
SLIGHT CHANCE DIRUNAL TSTMS AT BEST DUE TO BUILDING RIDGE
ALOFT...AND FAIRLY DRY LOW LEVEL AIR LEADING TO HIGH LEVELS OF
FREE CONVECTION/HIGH CONVECTIVE TEMPS.

MAIN ISSUE FOR SATURDAY AND INTO SUNDAY IS TIMING OF APPROACHING
BACK DOOR FRONT. LATEST NAM A LITTLE FASTER THAN GFS. GUIDANCE
BLEND AND SHORT RANGE ENSEMBLE SUGGEST FRONT WITH ASSOCIATED BAND
OF THUNDERSTORMS MOVING INTO THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL FA SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. CHANCE POPS SHOULD GENERALLY SUFFICE.

WARM MAX TEMPS STILL POSSIBLE SAT AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WITH
WARMEST TEMPS FAVORING THE CSRA WHERE TEMPS COULD REACH 100 AGAIN.
WITH NAM BEING SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN GFS WITH THE BACK DOOR FRONT...THE
NAM MOS IS SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN THE GFS MOS FOR SAT MAX
TEMP...ESPECIALLY NORTH AND CENTRAL. EVEN IF TEMPS NEAR 100
REACHED AGAIN SAT...GUIDANCE STILL SUGGESTS DEWPOINTS LOW ENOUGH
TO PRECLUDE HEAT INDEX VALUES FROM REACHING OUR HEAT ADVISORY
CRITERIA OF 110F.

FRONT EXPECTED TO SHIFT SW THRU THE FA SAT NT THRU SUN NT. EXPECT
CHANCE POPS NEAR AND JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WITH COOLING TEMPS
ALONG AND NORTH OF IT. SO...POPS SUN AFTN FAVORING THE CSRA. HIGH
TEMPS SUNDAY SHOULD BE NOTICEABLY LESS BEHIND THE FRONT.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FRONT TO PUSH TO OUR SOUTH EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK WITH SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING DOWN THE EASTERN SEABOARD...WITH UPPER RIDGE
ALOFT. SLIGHTLY COOLER AND DRIER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT ALONG WITH
RIDGE ALOFT WILL REDUCE CONVECTIVE CHANCES...TO SLIGHT CHANCE AT
BEST. TEMPS EXPECTED TO BE GENERALLY NEAR NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO DOMINATE THE PERIOD.

EXPECT A FEW DIURNAL CUMULUS THIS AFTERNOON...BUT SKIES WILL
REMAIN NEARLY SUNNY. POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION REMAINS TOO LOW TO
INCLUDE IN TAFS. CUMULUS WILL DISSIPATE WITH SUNSET WITH
CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CROSSING THE AREA TONIGHT...WHICH WILL AGAIN
WORK TO PREVENT FOG DEVELOPMENT. GFS LAMP STILL INDICATING MVFR
FOG AT AGS/OGB 06Z- 13Z. GIVEN EXPECTED DRY AIRMASS AND HIGH
CLOUDS...WILL NOT INCLUDE IN FOG IN THE FORECAST. NORTHERLY WINDS
AROUND 5 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON DIMINISHING TO NEAR CALM TONIGHT.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MVFR OR IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN LATE
NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING FOG SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY. ISOLATED
AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS MAY ALSO BRING RESTRICTIONS.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$
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