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Area Forecast Discussion

FXUS62 KCAE 280757

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
357 AM EDT TUE JUN 28 2016

A surface trough will cross the area today bringing a chance for
thunderstorms. A cold front will move into the area Wednesday and
linger through Friday. The chance for showers and thunderstorms
will continue across the region through Friday.


An upper level trough is forecast to deepen across the eastern
conus through tonight. A surface trough will cross the area
today. Abundant moisture will continue with precipitable water
values near 2.2 inches. Models indicate strong moisture flux
convergence...upper level divergence and a weak short wave
affecting the area. Locally heavy rainfall is possible. The
deepest moisture is expected to push toward the coast tonight. We
continued likely pops today...decreasing to chance tonight.
Afternoon high temperatures should range from the mid 80s to lower
90s with lows tonight in the upper 60s and lower 70s.


An upper level trough will continue over the eastern conus through
Thursday night. A weak cold front will move into the forecast
area Wednesday and remain in or near the forecast area through
Thursday. Weak to moderate instability combined with surface
convergence will continue the chance for mainly diurnal showers
and thunderstorms. Precipitable water values are expected to range
between 1.50 and 2.00 inches. Near normal temperatures are
forecast with afternoon highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s and
overnight lows in the upper 60s and lower 70s.


The upper level trough over the eastern conus will is forecast to
flatten by Saturday. A lingering frontal boundary/surface trough
over the region will dissipate by the end of the work week with
the next front approaching over the weekend. The chance for
showers and thunderstorms will continue each day with temperatures
at or slightly above normal.


Potential for restrictions mainly mid morning through the
afternoon and possibly into the evening as a frontal system moves
toward the area and moisture increases. Expect numerous showers
and thunderstorms later today reducing visibility to mvfr or lower
at times.

Scattered showers early this morning focused in the western
and north Midlands in area of deeper moisture and stronger
instability. At the moment...it appears the showers will not
impact the terminals...or have minimal impact. All terminals have
VFR conditions at 06z...but some MVFR fog possible mainly at AGS
and OGB toward morning and this is supported by latest LAMP
guidance. Frontal boundary or trough will set up across central SC
and east central Georgia later this morning through the afternoon.
Mid level short wave trough...strong low level convergence near
the front and moderate instability will result in showers and
thunderstorms across the area. There is a heavy rain threat which
may result in IFR conditions but confidence low at this time.
Believe a period of MVFR due to thunderstorms from 18z to 21z can
be expected at times. Focus for convection may shift southeast of
the area during the evening but confidence low...Second stronger
front will be northwest of the area.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Diurnal convection possible each
afternoon through the period.





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