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Area Forecast Discussion

454
FXUS62 KCAE 290545
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
145 AM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN STALLED JUST OFF TO THE SOUTH
OF THE FORECAST AREA...WITH DRY SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINING
ANCHORED OVER THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL CAROLINAS. INCREASING
ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE WILL DRIFT SLOWLY NORTH INTO MAINLY SOUTHERN
AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF OUR REGION TODAY...AND INTO REMAINING
AREAS SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
EARLY THIS MORNING...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE
SOUTHEAST. EXPECT MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS UNDER PARTLY TO MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES AT TIMES WITH MOST MID/UPPER FLOW. MORNING LOWS
RANGING FROM THE MIDDLE 60S NORTH TO AROUND 70 SOUTH.

TODAY...MAIN UPPER PATTERN CONTINUES TO BE DOMINATED BY THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC RIDGE...AND CUTOFF LOW IN THE NORTHERN GULF OF
MEXICO. ACROSS THE REGION...WEAK SURFACE TROUGH WILL REMAIN
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CSRA...EXTENDING WESTWARD INTO
CENTRAL GA. THIS BOUNDARY MAY MOVE NORTHWARD SLIGHTLY THROUGHOUT
THE DAY...BUT DRIER AIR NORTH OF THIS FRONT WILL STILL DOMINATE
MOST OF THE CWA TODAY. MOST MODELS KEEP A DRY FORECAST ACROSS THE
CWA...WITH POSSIBLE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE EXTREME SOUTHERN
CSRA WHERE MOISTURE RETURN MAY BE A LITTLE BETTER LATER THIS
AFTERNOON. HAVE GENERALLY FOLLOWED THIS TREND IN THE
GUIDANCE...KEEPING THE MAJORITY OF THE AREA DRY TODAY. SOME THIN
HIGH CLOUDINESS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION...WHICH MAY HAVE A
MINOR IMPACT ON AFTERNOON HIGHS...KEEPING TEMPS A DEGREE OR SO
BELOW PREVIOUS READINGS. HAVE GONE WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
MOISTURE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TRENDING SLOWLY NORTH SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...WITH INDICATIONS OF WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
AND DRIER AIR STILL TRYING TO HANG TOUGH OVER THE WESTERN
CAROLINAS. MODELS INDICATE A POP GRADIENT OVER OUR FA SUNDAY WITH
LOWER POPS NORTH/HIGHER POPS SOUTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
UPPER TROUGH TO REMAIN TO OUR WEST WITH UPPER RIDGE TO OUR EAST.
MAIN CONCERN WILL CONTINUE TO BE STATUS AND TRACK OF TROPICAL
CYCLONE ERIKA. OFFICIAL FORECASTS BRING THE SYSTEM INTO S FLORIDA
BY LATE SUN...AND NORTHWARD INTO N FL/S GA VICINITY BY WED. EVEN
WITHOUT THE CYCLONE IN PLAY...IT APPEARS SUFFICIENT ATMOSPHERIC
MOISTURE WOULD PROVIDE PREMISE FOR SCATTERED DIURNAL CONVECTION
OVER OUR FA ANYWAY. DUE TO UNCERTAINTIES REGARDING POSSIBLE
IMPACT OF ERIKA ON OUR REGION...WILL CONTINUE TO MAINTAIN ONGOING
FORECAST OF CHANCE POPS...TRENDED A LITTLE HIGHER TO THE SOUTH.
GENERALLY BLENDED LATEST GUIDANCE WITH ONGOING FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGHER MOISTURE ACROSS THE CSRA TAF SITES BEING SHOWN BY HIGHER
DEWPOINTS THERE. MIDLANDS SITES SHOWING A SLIGHTLY DRIER AIRMASS.
MODELS HAVE TRENDED TOWARDS VFR CONDITIONS EARLY THIS MORNING AND
THROUGH THE DAY. WITH HIGHER MOISTURE ACROSS AGS...CAN NOT RULE
OUT A DROP INTO MVFR VISIBILITIES BRIEFLY TOWARDS SUNRISE. THIN
CIRRUS MOVING INTO THE REGION SHOULD ALSO HELP LIMIT ANY
WIDESPREAD FOG/STRATUS FORMATION THIS MORNING. DO NOT EXPECT ANY
CONVECTION TO IMPACT TAF SITES...MAINLY DUE TO THE BEST MOISTURE
REMAINING SOUTH OF THE SITES.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN MAINLY EARLY
MORNING FOG AND STRATUS PLUS AFTERNOON AND EVENING SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

&&

$$



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