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Area Forecast Discussion

992
FXUS62 KCAE 050638
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
238 AM EDT TUE MAY 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN DOMINANT OVER THE FORECAST AREA
THROUGH TUESDAY. LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTHWARD ALONG
THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA WEDNESDAY AND BE OFF THE SOUTH CAROLINA
COAST ON THURSDAY. SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE OFFSHORE SYSTEM
MAY BEGIN TO SPREAD INTO THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY AND PERSIST
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THIS MORNING/...
LIGHT SOUTHEAST WIND AND CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL
FALL TO THE MID AND UPPER 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
KEEPING LIGHT WINDS AND DIURNAL STRATOCUMULUS IN PLACE FOR ANOTHER
DAY. WITH DRY AIR REMAINING IN PLACE AND A WEAK LAPSE RATES ALOFT
DO NOT EXPECT ANY CONVECTION DURING THE AFTERNOON OR EVENING
HOURS. WITH THE GRADIENT TIGHTENING SLIGHTLY EXPECT WINDS TO BE
EASTERLY AROUND 8 MPH WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 80S FOR
AFTERNOON HIGHS AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WEDNESDAY WILL REMAIN DOMINATED BY HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING INTO THE
AREA. DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ON WEDNESDAY WITH TEMPERATURES
REMAINING NEAR NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S. EXPECT CLOUDS
TO INCREASE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS THE SYSTEM DEVELOPING
OFF THE COAST MOVES NORTHWARD. FORECAST CHALLENGE FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST IS THE TIMING AND TRACK OF THE SURFACE
LOW AS IT MOVES TOWARD THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST. THERE CONTINUES
TO BE CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS SYSTEM. ALTHOUGH MODELS
ARE COMING MORE INTO AGREEMENT WITH A MORE WESTERLY POSITION OF
THE SURFACE LOW...CONFIDENCE LEVELS KEEP CURRENT POPS NO HIGHER
THAN THE CHANCE RANGE FOR THE CWA. THIS LOW IS EXPECTED TO LINGER
OVER THE AREA INTO THE WEEKEND. THIS SYSTEM HAS THE POSSIBILITY OF
BRINGING SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL TO THE AREA ALONG WITH BREEZY
CONDITIONS THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. HEAVIEST RAINFALL SHOULD
REMAIN ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...

MVFR FOG POSSIBLE AT AGS/OGB BETWEEN 08Z AND 12Z. OTHERWISE HIGH
CONFIDENCE FOR VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THIS EVENING.

HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING INTO THE AREA FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL
HOLD LIGHT SOUTHERLY SURFACE WIND ACROSS THE AREA EARLY THIS
MORNING. WIND BECOMING EAST TO SOUTHEAST 5 TO 10 KNOTS BY MIDDAY.
COULD SEE WIND GUSTS TO 18 KNOTS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AS THE SEA
BREEZE CROSSES THE TAF SITES. EXPECT SCATTERED CLOUD BASES 5KFT TO
7KFT.

MVFR/IFR CIGS INDICATED BY THE NAM MODEL AS ONSHORE FLOW ALLOW
STRATUS CLOUDS TO DEVELOP TOWARD THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.
CONFIDENCE TOO LOW TO INCLUDE AT THIS TIME.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE LATE THURSDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY AS MOISTURE FROM A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING
NORTHWARD ALONG THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA PUSHES INTO THE AREA.
CONFIDENCE IS LOW AS THIS SYSTEM HAS YET TO DEVELOP.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$






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