National Weather Service Weather Forecast Office

Area Forecast Discussion

996
FXUS62 KCAE 031820
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
120 PM EST SUN MAR 3 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION TODAY AND REMAIN
OVER THE AREA THROUGH MONDAY. THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
APPROACH FROM THE WEST MONDAY NIGHT SPREADING INCREASING CHANCES
OF RAIN OVER THE AREA FOR TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
THE LOW WILL DEPART ON WEDNESDAY EVENING WITH HIGH PRESSURE
RETURNING FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO THE AREA AS THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH PUSHES FURTHER OFFSHORE. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS STRATO CU
CONTINUING TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA AS TEMPERATURES HAVE RISEN
IN TO THE MID 40S FOR MOST LOCATIONS. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO TOP
OUT IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S AND THEN BEGIN TO DROP STEADILY
WITH SUNSET. CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO DISSIPATE WITH THE LOSS OF
HEATING AND WINDS WILL ALSO DECREASE AS AN INVERSION DEVELOPS.
THIS WILL CREATE GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT
WITH LOWS DROPPING INTO THE MID AND UPPER 20S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION ON MONDAY...THEN IT IS
FORECAST TO BEGIN MOVING OUT OF THE AREA AS WE MOVE INTO TUESDAY.
AS THE HIGH MOVES OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST...SURFACE WINDS ARE EXPECTED
TO TURN OUT OF THE SOUTH TUESDAY.  THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR AN INCREASE
IN LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE...ALONG WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY.
READINGS IN THE 60S ARE ONCE AGAIN EXPECTED TO RETURN. IN ADDITION
TO THE WARMER TEMPS...ANOTHER SURFACE LOW AND UPPER TROUGH WILL BE
DEVELOPING OFF TO THE WEST OF THE REGION...AND THEN TRACKING
EASTWARD THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY.  EXPECTING THE MORNING HOURS ON
TUESDAY TO REMAIN DRY...BUT BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON THE MODELS ARE
INDICATING AN INCREASING CHANCE FOR RAINFALL ACROSS THE WESTERN
COUNTIES.  THIS AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.
AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS AS IF THIS WILL BE THE TIMEFRAME IN WHICH WE
SHOULD HAVE THE BEST CHANCE FOR SEEING RAINFALL. CAN NOT RULE OUT AN
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE MAIN FRONT...BUT
STILL NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO PLACE IN THE FORECAST.  ONE ISSUE
STILL REVOLVES AROUND THE TIMING OF THE SYSTEM.  BETWEEN THE GFS AND
THE ECMWF...THE GFS APPEARS TO BE THE FASTER OF THE TWO MODELS RIGHT
NOW.  IN GENERAL...WENT WITH A BLEND OF THE TWO FOR THE TIMING AND
MOVEMENT OF THE PRECIP.

THE COLD FRONT WILL BE PUSHING EAST OF THE CWA DURING THE MORNING
HOURS ON WEDNESDAY...TAKING BEST RAINFALL CHANCES ALONG WITH IT.
FOR NOW...THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING...THEN
RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH FROM THE SOUTHWEST AS THE
MORNING AND AFTERNOON PROGRESS.


&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
DRY WEATHER LOOKS TO DOMINATE THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD AS WE
MOVE INTO SUNDAY. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE BUILDING
INTO THE REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD...WHILE ALOFT FORECAST MODELS
SHOWING A BUILDING RIDGE PATTERN ACROSS THE EASTERN REGIONS AS WE
MOVE INTO THE WEEKEND.  SURFACE FLOW ON THURSDAY WILL BE OUT OF THE
NORTH...WHICH WOULD INDICATE COLD ADVECTION PATTERN.  HOWEVER WITH
MORE SUNSHINE EXPECTED ON THURSDAY THAN WHAT IS EXPECTED FOR
WEDNESDAY...EXPECTING AFTERNOON TEMPS TO ACTUALLY BE A FEW DEGREES
WARMER THAN WEDNESDAY. AS WE MOVE TOWARDS AND EVEN INTO THE
WEEKEND...AFTERNOON HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO MODERATE EACH DAY.  HIGHS
ON SATURDAY SHOULD REACH THE MID TO UPPER 60S...THEN ON SUNDAY THEY
APPEAR AS IF THEY WILL BE ABLE TO FINALLY REACH 70 DEGREES IN MANY
LOCATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR CONTINUE MOVING INTO THE AREA WITH
DIURNAL HEATING PRODUCING SOME STRATO CU. EXPECT THE CLOUDS TO
BEGIN DISSIPATING AROUND SUNSET WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING AND SKIES
OVERNIGHT WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR. WINDS WILL REMAIN WEST TO WEST
NORTHWEST THROUGH 04/00Z WHEN AN INVERSION WILL DEVELOP AND ALLOW
THE WINDS TO BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE. POTENTIAL FOR FOG
OVERNIGHT REMAINS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN TAFS.

.EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...
INCREASING CONFIDENCE IN MVFR CONDITIONS TUESDAY MIDDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
APPROACHES AND CROSSES THE AREA.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$