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Area Forecast Discussion

449
FXUS62 KCAE 311538
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1138 AM EDT THU JUL 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE OVER THE EASTERN HALF
OF THE COUNTRY INTO NEXT WEEK. AN EASTERLY WIND FLOW WILL BRING
INCREASING MOISTURE ALONG WITH A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION INTO THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
WIDESPREAD CLOUDINESS WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT
WITH A MOIST EAST FLOW OFF THE ATLANTIC AND ISENTROPIC LIFT ACROSS
THE REGION. HIGHEST PWAT...AROUND 1.7 INCHES...STRETCHED ALONG
THE SAVANNAH RIVER BASIN INTO THE UPSTATE. SHOULD SEE PWAT
INCREASING TO NEAR 2.00 INCHES INTO THE CENTRAL MIDLANDS THIS
AFTERNOON. WEAK SHORT WAVE ENERGY COUPLED WITH WEAK DIVERGENCE
ALOFT SHOULD SPREAD SHOWERS ACROSS THE MIDLANDS AND CSRA THIS
AFTERNOON THE EVENING. KEPT POPS IN THE 30 TO 50 PERCENT RANGE...
WITH THE BEST CHANCE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN MIDLANDS AND CSRA. GIVEN
HIGH PW VALUES AND SLOW PRECIP MOVEMENT LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS
POSSIBLE.

THERE HAS BEEN A DOWNWARD TREND IN MODEL TEMPERATURES. HOWEVER
GUIDANCE HAS BEEN CONSISTENTLY TOO LOW RECENTLY. WILL STAY JUST
ABOVE CONSENSUS FOR HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MID 80S NORTHWEST TO
THE UPPER 80S SOUTHEAST. OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER
70S ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
THE UPPER TROUGH ANCHORED OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL
BEGIN TO SLOWLY RETROGRADE WESTWARD WITH THE UPPER FLOW MORE
SOUTHWEST...ALLOWING DEEPER MOISTURE TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. MODELS INDICATE THE HIGHEST ISENTROPIC LIFT
THE UPSTATE AND NORTH MIDLANDS FRIDAY. A SECONDARY PRECIP MAX
SHOULD BE ALONG THE COAST...CLOSER TO A STATIONARY BOUNDARY ALONG
THE COASTAL PLAIN/I-95 CORRIDOR. PWAT WILL RANGE FROM 1.50 TO
AROUND 2.00 INCHES. SPC HAS THE AREA UNDER A SEE TEXT FOR FRIDAY
WITH WIND FIELD WITH INCREASING SHEAR. HOWEVER...LIMITING FACTORS
OF CLOUD COVER...HIGH PW VALUES AND ONLY WEAK INSTABILITY.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW CLIMATOLOGY BOTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER
70S. GUIDANCE AND LOCAL NUMBERS ARE CLOSE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
IN GENERAL THE LONG TERM PERIOD LOOKS UNSETTLED AND WET WITH AN
UPPER TROUGH OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION PROMOTING DEEP
SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEKEND WITH WEAK ONSHORE FLOW FROM THE ATLANTIC. THE UPPER FLOW
BECOMES MORE ZONAL BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. MODELS SHOW ISENTROPIC LIFT
INCREASING ON FRIDAY WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES RISING TO OVER
1.8 INCHES. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AT JUST OVER 2.0 INCHES ON SUNDAY. POPS SLOWLY DECREASE TO
LOW CHANCE BY WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE BELOW
NORMAL THROUGH MUCH OF THE EXTENDED WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER
80S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MAINLY VFR THROUGH THE EVENING WITH MID LEVEL CLOUDS. MOIST
EASTERLY FLOW OFF THE ATLANTIC WILL SPREAD SHOWERS INTO THE AREA.
GIVEN HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL LIMITING VSBYS
IS POSSIBLE. HAVE INCLUDED VCSH IN TAFS AND WILL AMEND WHEN
CONFIDENCE IS HIGHER FOR SHOWERS LIMITING VSBYS/CIGS. MOST
MODELS INDICATING IFR/MVFR CIGS DEVELOPING AFTER 01/05Z.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
AT TIMES FROM FRIDAY INTO MONDAY DUE TO AN EASTERLY ISENTROPIC
FLOW OFF THE ATLANTIC.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$






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