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Area Forecast Discussion

516
FXUS62 KCAE 261050
AFDCAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
650 AM EDT TUE JUL 26 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure over the region will keep above normal temperatures
in the forecast through the end of the week. Isolated to scattered
thunderstorms are possible each afternoon and evening. Moisture
and instability will increase for the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
An upper level ridge will remain over the southeastern states today
into tonight. At the surface....Atlantic high pressure will ridge
into the region. Warm air aloft combined with weak instability and
subsidence beneath the upper ridge will hold dry weather across
much of the area. Could see enough convergence near the lee-side
trough and the sea breeze to bring isolated convection to the
Midlands and CSRA this afternoon into the evening. Have continued
a dry forecast with pops less than 20 percent. Temperatures will
remain above normal with afternoon highs in the mid 90s to near
100 degrees and lows in the 70s. Heat indices will range from 100
to around 105 degrees this afternoon.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Little change is expected in our weather pattern for Wednesday.
High pressure ridge will dominate the SE US. Warm temperatures
and mainly dry conditions persist with isolated convection mainly
diurnally driven near the lee-side trough in the upstate and along
the sea breeze. Temperatures will remain above normal with
afternoon highs in the mid 90s to near 100 degrees and lows in the
70s.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
GFS/ECMWF models keep upper level ridge over the SE US through
late week before bringing a shortwave into the mid Mississippi and
Ohio river valleys by Sat 12z. At this time it appears most of the
energy associated with this feature will stay north of SC, however
it may be sufficient to push a cold front through the area Sat and
Sun. The better chances for convection appear to be next weekend
with scattered showers and thunderstorms in the vicinity of the
frontal bounday. Thursday and Friday mainly dry with
isolated/widely scattered convection. Temperatures above normal
with a little cooling by the weekend especially with greater cloud
cover. Expect highs in the mid/upper 90s with overnight lows in
the low/mid 70s.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR conditions through the TAF period.

Skies remain clear with winds having become light and variable
over the last couple of hours. With mixing beginning shortly winds
will return to southerly between 6 and 8 knots with cumulus
developing during the late morning hours. Cumulus will continue
developing through the afternoon and evening hours...however with
very warm temperatures aloft and little support thunderstorms are
not expected today. With sunset cumulus will dissipate resulting
in mostly clear skies overnight. A low level jet around 20 knots
with develop tonight and again combine with light surface winds
and warm temperatures to reduce fog potential. Winds will remain
southerly at 7 knots or less through the period...with gusts to 14
knots between 17z and 27/00z.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Low potential for restrictions in
afternoon and evening convection each day.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
SC...None.

&&

$$



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