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Area Forecast Discussion

225
FXUS62 KCAE 180555
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
155 AM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRIER WEATHER AND BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES TO THE AREA INTO THE WEEKEND. ANOTHER COLD FRONT
WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
OVERNIGHT...ALTHOUGH MOST SHOWER ACTIVITY NOW CONFINED TO AREAS
CLOSER TO THE COAST...CAN NOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SHOWER ACROSS
THE SOUTHEASTERN MOST PORTIONS OF THE CWA THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO.
IR SATELLITE IMAGERY STILL SHOWING PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES OVER THE
AREA WITH SOME SCATTERED MID LEVEL CLOUDS AND ALSO HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS STREAMING ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST. PLENTY OF
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE OVERNIGHT...AND WITH THE
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...EXPECT SOME FOG/STRATUS FORMATION IN AREAS
TOWARDS MORNING. CAN NOT RULE OUT SOME DENSE FOG IN SOME
LOCATIONS...BUT CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH AT THIS TIME. AS FOR
TEMPERATURES...READINGS SHOULD CONTINUE TO FALL INTO THE 60S
OVERNIGHT BUT HOW LOW TEMPERATURES ARE ABLE TO REACH WILL BE
DEPENDENT ON LOW CLOUD DEVELOPMENT DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS. FOR
NOW WILL CONTINUE WITH TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE LOWER 60S
NORTH AND WESTERN MIDLANDS TO MID 60S SOUTHEAST MIDLANDS.

THURSDAY...EXPECTING THE DAY TO START OFF WITH A COMBINATION OF
FOG/STRATUS BEFORE GIVING WAY TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES BY NOON. UPPER
TROUGH REMAINS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE DAY AGAIN...WHILE AT
THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL TRY TO BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH.
MODELS ARE HINTING AT SOME ISOLATED CONVECTION DEVELOPING LATER IN
THE AFTERNOON...HOWEVER AM MORE INCLINED TO BELIEVE THE
DEVELOPMENT WILL BE MORE CONFINED TO BOTH THE COAST ALONG THE SEA-
BREEZE...AND POSSIBLY IN THE MOUNTAINS OFF TO THE WEST. WILL KEEP
CURRENT FORECAST DRY FOR NOW...JUST BELOW ISOLATED POP WORDING.
AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL BE GENERALLY AROUND 80 ACROSS THE NORTH...TO
THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S ACROSS THE SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS IS FORECAST TO DEEPEN WITH
A CUT OFF LOW DEVELOPING OVER SOUTHEAST GA ON FRIDAY. H5
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST AS LOW AS MINUS 11C. WEAK INSTABILITY IS
FORECAST FOR THE MIDLANDS AND CSRA WITH MODERATE INSTABILITY
FARTHER SOUTH BENEATH THE UPPER LOW. A LARGE AREA OF SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE CROSSING SOUTHERN CANADA AND THE GREAT LAKES WILL MOVE
EAST TO THE NORTH ATLANTIC COAST. ALL MODELS FORECAST THE HIGH
PRESSURE TO RIDGE INTO OUR AREA BRINGING NORTHERLY WINDS AND COLD
AIR ADVECTION THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. EXPECT SEVERAL HARD TO TIME
WEAK SHORT WAVES TO CROSS THE ARE IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.
MOISTURE APPEARS TO BE SHALLOW...SO KEPT THE FORECAST DRY...BUT
INCREASED CLOUD COVER.

HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S WITH
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF INDICATE WEAK CYCLONIC UPPER FLOW ACROSS THE
NORTHERN TIER STATES SATURDAY WITH A WITH CUTOFF LOW OFF THE
SOUTHEAST COAST. THE TROUGH IS PROGGED TO DEEPEN OVER THE EASTERN
CONUS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. WEDGE CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WITH THE NEXT COLD FRONT
EJECTING THE WEDGE AS IT MOVES INTO THE REGION MONDAY. THIS WILL
KEEP DRY CONDITIONS OVER THE REGION THROUGH SUNDAY WITH LOW CHANCE
POPS MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS THE FRONT CROSSES THE FORECAST AREA.
GIVEN MOIST ONSHORE FLOW AND ABOVE AVERAGE POPS SHOWN BY THE GFS
ENSEMBLES...WILL KEEP LOW CHANCE POPS FOR WEDNESDAY, ALSO.
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE LONG TERM WILL BE BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
ALTHOUGH VFR CONDITIONS MAY START OFF THE PERIOD...MVFR/IFR
CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT AND
LAST THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.

LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE PLUS DRY AIR ALOFT AND LIGHT SURFACE
WINDS WILL PROVIDE THREAT OF FOG/STRATUS LATE TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING. LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTING LOW CEILINGS THE
MAIN THREAT ACROSS THE MIDLANDS...WITH LOW VISIBILITIES THE ISSUE
ACROSS THE CSRA. POSSIBLE MVFR/IFR RESTRICTIONS IN BOTH CEILINGS
AND VISIBILITIES. A SLOW RETURN TO VFR EXPECTED BY LATE MORNING
INTO EARLY AFTERNOON...WITH VFR THEN EXPECTED THE REMAINDER OF THE
PERIOD.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...LATE NIGHT AND MORNING FOG/STRATUS POSSIBLE
THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

&&

$$









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