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Area Forecast Discussion

548
FXUS62 KCAE 292325
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
725 PM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE JUST OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST WILL SLIP FARTHER
SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
EARLY MONDAY AFTERNOON PROVIDING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS...MAINLY IN
THE MORNING. SOME MOISTURE RETURN EXPECTED MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK
AND WARMING TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
HIGH PRESSURE WAS JUST OFF THE COAST EARLY THIS EVENING. A DRY AIR
MASS WAS IN PLACE WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE TEENS AND SINGLE DIGITS
AND CLEAR SKIES.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL TRACK EASTWARD OVERNIGHT...PUSHING A
WEAK COLD FRONT TOWARDS THE AREA. THE AIR MASS WILL BEGIN TO
SLOWLY MODIFY AS WINDS BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
SLIGHTLY WARMER OVERNIGHT LOWS AS LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE BEGINS
RETURNING. EVEN WITH THE MOISTURE SLOWLY RETURNING AND THE FRONT
APPROACHING...DO NOT EXPECT ANY PRECIP CHANCES UNTIL CLOSER TO
SUNRISE MONDAY MORNING. HAVE CONTINUED THE TREND OF INCREASING
POPS TOWARD MONDAY MORNING. GUIDANCE...LOCAL NUMBERS AND TRENDS
CONTINUE TO INDICATE OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 30S TO
LOWER 40S TONIGHT. CANNOT RULE OUT PATCHY FROST...ESPECIALLY ALONG
THE I-95 CORRIDOR. GIVEN INCREASING CLOUDS AND BOUNDARY LAYER...THE
OCCURRENCE FROST SHOULD BE LIMITED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION ACROSS THE
TENNESSEE RIVER VALLEY WILL BE APPROACHING THE CAROLINA EARLY IN
THE DAY. THIS TROUGH WILL DRIVE A WEAK COLD FRONT OF PACIFIC AIR
MASS ORIGIN THROUGH THE REGION DURING THE DAY. MODELS INDICATE
STRONG LOW LEVEL FLOW AHEAD OF FRONT...35 KTS TO 50 KTS AT 850MB
WITH RESULTING SPEED CONVERGENCE ACROSS MIDLANDS DURING THE
MORNING. WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT/WARM ADVECTION DURING THE MORNING
BUT EXPECT DEEP MOISTURE TO BE LACKING...PRECIPITABLE WATER
LOW...AROUND 1.00 INCH MAX. STRONGEST UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS
ASSOCIATED WITH MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH APPEARS TO BE ACROSS
THE NORTHERN MIDLANDS...SO POPS/QPF MAY BE SLIGHTLY HIGHER IN THAT
REGION. OVERALL...MODEL CONSENSUS SUGGESTS SCATTERED SHOWERS
MAINLY DURING THE MORNING WITH LOW QPF. CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS
INDICATE WEAK INSTABILITY...SO THUNDER THREAT MAINLY SOUTHEAST OF
AREA. FRONT/TROUGH MOVES SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA BY EARLY AFTERNOON BUT
COLD ADVECTION LAGS BEHIND FRONT. EXPECT DOWNSLOPE FLOW AND
TEMPERATURES TO RISE INTO THE 60S...POSSIBLY 70 IN THE CSRA. WEAK
COLD/DRY ADVECTION MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING AS RIDGE
BUILDS OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES. MOISTURE MAINLY SOUTH OF THE
REGION NEAR OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL GEORGIA
THROUGH TUESDAY ALTHOUGH SOME HIGHER CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH MID
LEVEL SHORT WAVES IN NORTHWEST FLOW EXPECTED. CONTINUED MODERATION
OF TEMPERATURES...NEAR NORMAL TUESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID
70S. ANOTHER WEAK FRONT/TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE AREA LATE TUESDAY
NIGHT OR EARLY WEDNESDAY. A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS MAY MOVE INTO
CSRA LATE TUESDAY NIGHT ASSOCIATED WITH FRONT/TROUGH AND WEAK
UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT BUT MOISTURE APPEARS QUITE LIMITED. OVERNIGHT
TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO MODERATE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
DRY CONDITIONS BACK THROUGH MUCH OF WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER WEAK SYSTEM
WILL MOVE TOWARDS THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY...WHICH WILL BRING YET ANOTHER RAINFALL CHANCE TO THE
AREA. A COLD FRONT MOVES TOWARD THE REGION FRIDAY OR
SATURDAY...HOWEVER LATEST MODEL RUNS SUGGESTING FRONT MOVES
THROUGH THE AREA ON SATURDAY WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES AND DRIER
FRIDAY WITH BULK OF SHOWERS TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE REGION. WILL
CONTINUE WITH LOW CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS THROUGH SATURDAY THEN DRY
FOR SUNDAY AS FRONT MOVES EAST OF THE AREA. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE IN WARM SECTOR ALTHOUGH SBCAPE APPEARS LOW. WARMING TREND
THROUGH SATURDAY...THEN SLIGHTLY COOLER FOR SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE 24 HOUR TAF PERIOD WITH BKN035 TO BKN045 FM 03Z-07Z
TONIGHT. WILL KEEP VCSH IN THE TAFS FOR MONDAY WITH POSSIBILITY OF
BRIEF MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS IN SHOWERS MONDAY MORNING INTO THE EARLY
AFTERNOON. COVERAGE WILL NOT BE WIDESPREAD AND ANY AMOUNTS SHOULD
BE RATHER LIGHT. EXPECTY WEST TO EAST FROPA ACROSS THE FA FM 19Z-
22Z FOLLOWED BY CLEARING SKIES.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...MOSTLY
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD WITH INCREASING
MOISTURE AND RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY IN
SCATTERED SHOWERS AS ANOTHER FRONT APPROACHES AND MOVES THROUGH.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$






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