National Weather Service Weather Forecast Office

Area Forecast Discussion

438
FXUS62 KCAE 030205
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1005 PM EDT WED OCT 2 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP WARM TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. A COLD FRONT...
AND PERHAPS TROPICAL MOISTURE...WILL BRING THE THREAT OF
UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /OVERNIGHT/...
SATELLITE TRENDS SUGGEST SOME HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS
OVERNIGHT...PROBABLY THIN. BUT GUIDANCE MOS AND BIAS SUGGEST
RAISING TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY OVERNIGHT FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST
GIVEN LESS THAN IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING. SO MID TO UPPER 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE EASTERN US
THROUGH SATURDAY AS A LONG WAVE TROUGH SLOWLY PROGRESSES EAST INTO
THE CENTRAL US. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST
THURSDAY...ALLOWING A MORE ONSHORE FLOW AND SOME INCREASE IN
MOISTURE. STILL EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS WITH ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. DAYTIME HIGHS SHOULD REACH THE MID/UPPER 80S WITH
NIGHT-TIME LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
BY SUNDAY THE UPPER RIDGE WILL HAVE MOVED OFF THE COAST AND THE
UPPER LEVEL FLOW COMES OUT OF THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST. MOISTURE
INCREASES AS DO POPS WITH AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. GFS HINTING
AT BRINGING IN SOME TROPICAL MOISTURE ALONG WITH THE COLD FRONT
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. SO UNCERTAINTY REMAINS HIGH FOR THE EARLY
PART OF NEXT WEEK. WEDNESDAY IS EVEN MORE UNCERTAIN AS MOISTURE
MAY LINGER BEHIND THE FRONT. FOR NOW WILL LEAN MORE TOWARDS A
SOMEWHAT DRIER SCENARIO FOR WEDNESDAY.

TEMPERATURES GENERALLY WILL BE A LITTLE ABOVE CLIMATOLOGY SUNDAY
THEN COOLING INTO THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK AS CLOUDS MAY
LINGER AND THE CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION CONTINUES.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

FAIR WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE 24 HOUR TAF PERIOD...WITH
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINING OVER THE REGION. ONLY CONCERN IS FOG
POTENTIAL TONIGHT/EARLY THU MORNING AT FOG PRONE SITES SUCH AS AGS
AND POSSIBLY OGB. HOWEVER...SATELLITE INDICATES SOME HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDINESS MAY CONTINUE TO SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA. IT APPEARS THERE
ARE ENOUGH BREAKS IN THE CLOUDINESS TO ALLOW SOME FOG TO FORM. DUE
TO UNCERTAINTY...WILL NOT FORECAST LIFR VSBYS AT AGS AT THIS TIME.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...POTENTIAL FOR LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING
FOG THROUGH SAT. STRATUS POSSIBLE SUNDAY MORNING. INCREASING
MOISTURE EXPECTED LATE SUNDAY AND MONDAY...POSSIBLY TROPICAL.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$