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Area Forecast Discussion

FXUS62 KCAE 261015

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
615 AM EDT FRI AUG 26 2016

Upper-level high pressure will remain over the region through early
next week, then begin to weaken mid to late next week. This will
maintain generally fair conditions through early week, though a
slight chance of afternoon showers or an isolated thunderstorm
will be possible. The upper ridge will begin to weaken mid to
late next week, and an area of low pressure, possibly tropical,
could influence our weather.


Center of the upper level ridge remains across North Carolina. At
the surface, high pressure will be off the coast. This keeps the
CWA in a general easterly wind flow pattern. Models do indicate
the potential development of a lee-side trough this afternoon,
which combined with an increase in low-level moisture may aid in a
few showers this afternoon. Best chance for any development
appears to remain off to the west of the CWA though, more along
the Piedmont. Plan on keeping the area dry for now.


Upper level high pressure will remain over the region on Saturday
while surface high pressure ridges into the area from the
northeast promoting onshore flow. The highest atmospheric moisture
appears to be in the northern portion of the area, so continued to
indicate slight chance pops north. Convection should diminish
Saturday evening with the loss of daytime heating. The upper
ridge will promote above normal temperatures with highs in the
middle 90s. Overnight lows in the lower 70s.


Upper level high pressure will remain over the region on Sunday
before weakening on Monday. Onshore flow will continue with high
pressure ridging into the region from the northeast. Models
continue to disagree in regards to the disturbance producing
disorganized showers and thunderstorms near the Bahamas. Therefore,
confidence regarding if and how this disturbance could affect the
forecast next week is low. Temperatures will generally be near or
a couple of degrees above normal through the period.


Generally VFR conditions expected through the forecast period with
possible mvfr visibility restrictions near rivers and lakes.

High pressure will remain across the region aloft, while surface
high pushes offshore. A few clouds around 5kft will be possible,
with a period of broken ceilings in the CSRA this morning. Can not
rule out a brief period of patchy fog at any terminal. Winds
will pick up from the east again after 15z with generally shallow
moisture and little chance for precipitation.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...There may be widespread stratus and
fog associated with low-level moisture in an onshore flow during
the early morning hours Saturday through Monday.





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