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Area Forecast Discussion

649
FXUS62 KCAE 281439
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
939 AM EST WED JAN 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE GULF COAST
WILL BUILD EAST ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT AND MOVE OFFSHORE
THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT.
A FEW SHOWERS MAY OCCUR AHEAD OF THE FRONT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
BELOW NORMAL THROUGH MID WEEK. DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
COLD HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE GULF
COAST WILL BUILD EAST INTO OUR AREA TODAY. SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED
WITH THE RIDGE WILL KEEP SKIES CLEAR.

THE NAM BUFKIT MOMENTUM TRANSFER TOOL SUPPORTED GUSTS NEAR 15
KNOTS THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. YESTERDAY/S VERIFICATION SUPPORTS
THE COOLER TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE TODAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 40S
TO LOWER 50S.

THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVERHEAD TONIGHT. STRONG NET
RADIATIONAL COOLING FAVORS THE LOWER GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES TONIGHT
WITH LOWS IN THE 20S. NORMALLY COOLER LOCATIONS COULD DIP INTO THE
UPPER TEENS. MAY SEE HIGH CLOUDS INCREASING TOWARDS DAWN AS THE
UPPER RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS EAST OF THE AREA. THESE CLOUDS COULD HOLD
TEMPERATURES UP A FEW DEGREES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER RIDGE AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION TO START
THE DAY ON THURSDAY. BOTH WILL SLIP OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST BY
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS AN UPPER TROUGH AND SURFACE LOW SHIFT EAST
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION. GFS AND NAM ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
SHOWING THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT CROSSING THE AREA LATE
THURSDAY/EARLY FRIDAY AND MOVING OFF THE COAST BY 12Z FRIDAY.
ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM AS
MOISTURE APPEARS LIMITED. INCREASING CLOUDS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
ON THURSDAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S. DRIER AIR WILL
RETURN TO THE REGION ON FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE
MIDWESTERN STATES. MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ON FRIDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE
50S. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT AND LIGHT WINDS WILL PROMOTE
FAVORABLE RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS...ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO
DROP DOWN INTO THE MID 20S NORTH TO NEAR 30 SOUTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A WEAK UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE SOUTHEAST ON
SATURDAY WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY SHIFTING
EAST. MODELS SHOW MOISTURE AND ISENTROPIC LIFT INCREASING EARLY SUNDAY
AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER EASTERN TEXAS AND THE WESTERN GULF
AND A WEAK WEDGE SETS UP. LOW PRESSURE SHIFTS NORTHEAST TOWARD THE
OHIO VALLEY LATE SUNDAY AND INTO MONDAY DRAGGING A COLD FRONT
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THE GFS IS ABOUT 6 HOURS SLOWER WITH THE
TIMING OF THE FRONT AND SHOWS A DEEPER LOW THAN THE ECMWF.
CONTINUED TO INDICATE LIKELY POPS MONDAY MORNING AS PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES INCREASE TO 1.4 INCHES. DRIER AIR RETURNS TO THE
REGION BY MONDAY EVENING AS THE CENTER OF THE LOW SHIFTS FURTHER
NORTHEAST. TIMING AND INTENSITY DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE GFS AND
ECMWF ARE FURTHER REALIZED TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. IN TERMS OF THE
OVERALL PATTER...BOTH GENERALLY SHOW THE FRONT STALLING TO OUR SOUTH
WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE FORECAST AREA ON
TUESDAY AND SHIFTING EAST ON WEDNESDAY. A WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE SHIFTS ACROSS FLORIDA AND MOVES TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST
COAST ON WEDNESDAY. BELOW NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED
THROUGHOUT THE LONG TERM PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

DRY AIR MASS WILL PROVIDE CLEAR SKIES TODAY. COULD SEE HIGH
CLOUDS INCREASING TOWARDS THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD AS THE UPPER
RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS EAST OF THE TAF SITES. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT. NORTHERLY WINDS EXPECTED TODAY. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
CONTINUE TO RELAX AS THE SURFACE RIDGE MOVES INTO THE AREA. THE
NAM BUFKIT MOMENTUM TRANSFER TOOL SUPPORTED GUSTS NEAR 15 KNOTS
THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. THE AIR MASS WILL REMAIN TOO DRY FOR
OVERNIGHT FOG.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...BRIEF RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE THURSDAY
NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION. CIG/VSBYS RESTRICTIONS
POSSIBLE SUNDAY AS MOISTURE RETURNS AHEAD OF A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$






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