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Area Forecast Discussion

857
FXUS62 KCAE 300809
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
409 AM EDT SAT MAY 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
SUNDAY AS A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SLOWLY MOVES EASTWARD
THROUGH THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY TO THE APPALACHIANS. A MOIST
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL RESULT THE CHANCE FOR DIURNAL SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY THROUGH MONDAY. A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
STALL ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY THUS CONTINUING THE
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES WILL BEGIN TO
WEAKEN AND SLIDE TO THE COAST OVERNIGHT AS AN UPPER TROUGH
CROSSING THE MIDDLE OF THE COUNTRY SLIDES EAST. ATLANTIC HIGH
PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE RIDGING INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES. A
MOIST SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL BRING INCREASING MOISTURE. DIURNAL
HEATING WILL ALLOW THE AIRMASS TO BECOME WEAKLY TO MODERATELY
UNSTABLE. KEPT LOW CHANCE POPS FOR SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS... THOUGH THE BEST CHANCE WILL BE ACROSS
THE LOWER SAVANNAH RIVER AREA AND SOUTHEAST MIDLANDS. AFTERNOON
HIGHS WILL ONCE AGAIN WARM INTO THE UPPER 80S WITH LOWS TONIGHT IN
THE MID AND UPPER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST SUNDAY AS AN UPPER
TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. WEAK SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AND
ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL STRUGGLE TO CROSS THE
APPALACHIANS SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN WEST OF THE MIDLANDS AND
CSRA...THOUGH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
GIVEN AMPLE MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S FOR DAYTIME
HIGHS WITH MID TO UPPER 60S FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL VERY SLOWLY MOVE THROUGH THE EASTERN US AS
THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN REMAINS HIGHLY AMPLIFIED THROUGH THE LONG
TERM. MODELS INDICATE THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING RETURNING TO THE
REGION LATE NEXT THURSDAY. HOWEVER...WITH THE UPPER LEVEL
AMPLIFICATION BELIEVE THIS IS LIKELY TOO FAST AND WILL LIKELY
OCCUR BEYOND THE END OF THE LONG TERM. AT THE SURFACE THE WEAK
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL STRUGGLE TO CROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND IS
EXPECTED TO STALL ALONG THE APPALACHIANS MONDAY AND SLOWLY SHEAR
APART ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD. THIS COMBINATION WILL
KEEP SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE LONG
TERM. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHOULD SEE RESTRICTIONS IN EARLY MORNING FOG/STRATUS.

MODELS SHOW FOG AND STRATUS DEVELOPING DURING THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS AS MOISTURE RETURNS IN EASTERLY SURFACE FLOW. HAVE
CONTINUED TO INDICATE MVFR RESTRICTIONS BUT MODELS INDICATE IFR IS
POSSIBLE BUT CONFIDENCE REMAINS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE AT THIS TIME.
RESTRICTIONS SHOULD IMPROVE BY 14Z. ONLY ISOLATED CONVECTION
EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL REMAIN CALM/LIGHT OVERNIGHT
AND WILL PICK UP TO AROUND 5 TO 6 KNOTS OUT OF THE EAST/SOUTHEAST
BY LATE MORNING. THESE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. BY THIS EVENING...WINDS WILL ONCE AGAIN BECOME
LIGHT WIND SCATTERED MID/HIGH CLOUDS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...INCREASING CHANCES OF AFTERNOON
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

&&

$$
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