National Weather Service Weather Forecast Office

Area Forecast Discussion

387
FXUS62 KCAE 232342
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
742 PM EDT THU MAY 23 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA
TONIGHT. THE DRY AIR MASS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL DOMINATE DURING
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVING INTO NORTHEAST SOUTH
CAROLINA...CLEARING ACROSS MIDLANDS. POPS DECREASING RAPIDLY
ACROSS THE REGION AS DRY AIR ADVECTS IN FROM THE UPSTATE AND NORTH
GEORGIA. LOWS UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
DRYING BEHIND THE FRONT SHOULD DOMINATE FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT. MIXING ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT SUPPORTED THE WARMER
TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING COOLER
DRIER CONDITIONS FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. WILL GO WITH GFS MOS
GUIDANCE IN THE MID 40S FRIDAY NIGHT AND MODEL BLEND UPPER 70S
TO LOWER 80S SATURDAY. AIR MASS MODIFIES BY SATURDAY NIGHT WITH
LOWS IN THE LOWER 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH UPPER RIDGE WORKING
IN FROM THE WEST. BOTH MODELS SHOW A WEAK SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WHICH REMAINS MAINLY TO THE NORTH BUT ECMWF SHOWS THE FRONT A
LITTLE BIT STRONGER THAN THE GFS. THE ECMWF ALSO KEEPS THE FRONT
A LITTLE FARTHER TO THE SOUTH. DRY TO START SUNDAY AND MONDAY BUT
BY THE END OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD...THE AIR MASS MOISTURE INCREASES
AND THE INSTABILITY INCREASES. EXPECT MORE DIURNAL SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES
INCREASE FROM THE LOWER 80S SUNDAY TO THE MID 80S MONDAY AND
TUESDAY TO THE UPPER 80S BY WEDNESDAY. OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 50S SUNDAY NIGHT BUT INCREASE TO
THE LOWER 60S FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE 24 HOUR TAF PERIOD.

ONLY AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS
EVENING. CHANCES FAR TOO LOW TO INCLUDE MENTION IN THE TAFS. WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO STAY UP SOME TONIGHT...PLUS SOME DRIER AIR WILL
FILTER IN BEHIND A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH...PRECLUDING ANY FOG/STRATUS
THREAT. BREEZY CONDITIONS EXPECTED FRIDAY...BEHIND A DRY COLD FRONT
THAT WILL COME THROUGH IN THE MORNING.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...DRIER AIR MOVING IN BEHIND A FRONT WILL
PRECLUDE ANY IMPACTS TO AVIATION.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
RELATIVE HUMIDITY FRIDAY AFTERNOON IS EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 20 TO
25 PERCENT RANGE. WINDS APPEAR MARGINAL RED FLAG...EXPECT
SUSTAINED WINDS MAINLY BELOW 20 MPH. WIND GUSTS EXPECTED TO AROUND
25 MPH. FUEL MOISTURE IS HIGH REDUCING FIRE THREAT.

&&

.CLIMATE...
MUCH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY MORNING WITH
LOWS IN THE 40S.

COLUMBIA METRO AIRPORT RECORD LOW MAY 25TH...45 SET IN 1967
AUGUSTA BUSH FIELD RECORD LOW MAY 25TH.......43 SET IN 1951

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$