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Area Forecast Discussion

FXUS62 KCAE 261810

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
210 PM EDT THU MAY 26 2016

High pressure will remain over the forecast area through Friday.
Moisture will increase over the weekend associated with low
pressure nearing the southeast coast.


Ridge of high pressure remains in control of the region with weak
winds through the upper levels. Disturbance moving through
northeast GA has generated a few showers with isolated showers
near the northern CSRA. expect the showers to slowly drift
northeastward through this evening then dissipate with sunset and
loss of heating. Partly to mostly cloudy skies will also begin
clearing with sunset as cumulus dissipate. Overnight skies will be
partly cloudy with light and variable winds...low temperatures
will be in the middle 60s.


Models continue to show surface ridging coming on off the
Atlantic. Surface low forecast to continue developing across the
western Atlantic east of Florida through the period. This low will
track westward through the period. Models still keep the low off
the coast during the day Saturday, then move it just off the coast
Saturday night. At this time it appears as if Friday and Friday
night will remain dry, due to the influence of the surface high
and upper ridge. Model forecast soundings indicate a mid-level
subsidence inversion or cap becoming more established Friday which
should help diminish the thunderstorm chance also. However by
Saturday the upper ridge begins breaking down as the low off the
coast tracks westward. With easterly flow off the Atlantic, would
expect rain chances to increase during the day on Saturday.
However the best chance for any rainfall will remain mainly across
the eastern portions of the CWA during the day and into Saturday
night. Used a blend of guidance for the temperature forecast.


Uncertainty enters the forecast as we get into the longer term.
Biggest uncertainty revolves around the track of the low pressure
system forecast to be just off the coast Sunday morning. The gfs
tracks the low inland, then stalls it over the eastern CWA before
it appears to dissipate. The ECMWF is different in that it stalls
it just along the coast during the day Sunday, then tracks it off
to the northeast along the coast of the Carolina`s Sunday night
into Monday. Either way, an increased chance for rainfall appears
likely from Sunday night into Monday.  Depending on the track of
the storm, locally heavy rainfall and some flooding could become
an issue in the forecast area.

After Monday, held onto diurnal pop trends for the remainder of
the period, with chance pops during the day, and slight chance
during the overnight hours. Confidence in the longer term forecast
remains low.


VFR conditions to dominate the period...with early morning MVFR

High pressure ridge remains in control of the area with a weak
disturbance over central GA. Few showers have developed over
eastern GA...expect coverage to remain scattered so have included
VCSH at ags/dnl through the early evening hours. Convection will
dissipate with sunset with potential for mvfr fog at ags/ogb. With
conditions similar to last night expect fog to be contained to
sunrise hours with remainder of the period VFR. Winds through the
period will be southerly at 8 knots or less.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MVFR fog possible at ags and ogb
early each morning. Increasing confidence in restrictions Saturday
night through Monday.





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