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Area Forecast Discussion

028
FXUS64 KBMX 290437
AFDBMX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
1137 PM CDT SAT MAY 28 2016

.SHORT TERM...
Tonight and Sunday.

The band of light rain has been shifting slowly eastward across east
Alabama today. This rain has just about dissipated as it encounters
drier air. Convection has developed over northeast Mississippi ahead
of short wave trof near the Mississippi river. The convection is
primarily tracking northward, so not sure how far eastward it will
make it before it begins to weaken with loss of daytime heating.
Will continue with a slight chance of thunderstorms for areas west of
Tuscaloosa through the early evening. Mid to high level clouds will
continue over central Alabama overnight as the short wave trof moves
eastward, and possibly some light rain, but confidence on placement
and timing not enough to include in forecast. Flow from surface
through mid levels becomes northerly on Sunday and drier mid level
air moves in from the north as the aforementioned short wave trof
shifts into Georgia. Maybe an isolated shower or thunderstorm across
east Alabama on Sunday, but not enough to warrant any area with rain
chances.  Low level thickness values increase dramatically on Sunday
in northerly flow and raised highs a few degrees.

58

.LONG TERM...
Sunday night through Friday.

A large broad upper trough is expected to develop across the
Southeast U.S. as we progress through the remainder of the weekend
and into the beginning of next week as a short wave moving across
Louisiana and into Alabama merges with the upper level troughing
associated with Bonnie along the coast. Weak overall flow will
persist across Central Alabama with only minor shortwave
ripples. As another upper low moves eastward across Canada
through the middle and latter part of next week, we should see
this weaker system get pushed eastward as the associated longwave
trough moves across the Rockies and into the Central U.S. This
second system will yield a few more opportunities for rain being a
larger but not as broad system. This second system will also have
a surface front associated with it approaching Central Alabama by
Friday into next weekend. As for temperatures, look for warm
temperatures Monday through Thursday in the upper 60s for lows and
highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s with little variation in the
overall pattern until closer to Friday as the front approaches
with more clouds, better rain chances and thus milder readings.

08


&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF Discussion.

Late night satellite and radar show the disappearance of the
earlier rain showers from yesterday evening. Winds are beginning
to become more variable and high to mid clouds are lingering from
the influence of the short wave trough to the west. VFR conditions
are expected to remain until the early morning hours. However MVFR
conditions have been added primarily to the eastern counties, as
Bonnie`s movement to the northeast has slowed a bit. This will
give rise to a brief easterly wind. This new wind component plus
the increase in dew points from yesterday evening`s sea breeze may
allow the chance of brief haze or fog in during the sunrise time
frame. This will drop visiby`s slightly. Quickly after sunrise,
winds will then shift again, this time to the northwest as Bonnie
begins to come under the upper level trough`s influence and track
to the northeast. Clearing sky conditions and increased visiby`s
are expected to begin an hour or two after sunrise. VFR conditions
are expected for the rest of the day tomorrow.

92

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Look for only low to minimal rain chances for the remainder of the
weekend into the first half of this week. Temperatures are
expected to remain above normal through much of the week. There
are no fire weather concerns at this time.

08

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden     62  89  64  89  66 /  10  10  10  20  10
Anniston    63  89  66  88  66 /  10  10  10  20  10
Birmingham  67  91  69  90  69 /  10  10  10  20  10
Tuscaloosa  65  92  68  91  69 /  20  10  10  20  10
Calera      66  90  68  90  69 /  10  10  10  20  10
Auburn      65  88  68  89  69 /  10  10  10  20  10
Montgomery  67  92  69  93  70 /  10  10  10  20  10
Troy        65  92  68  92  69 /  10  10  10  20  10

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$



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