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Area Forecast Discussion

886
FXUS64 KBMX 261137
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
537 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 12Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

THIS MORNING A SURFACE LOW WAS SITUATED IN THE UPPER PLAINS AND
IS EXPECTED TO PUSH SOUTHEAST INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
TODAY DRAGGING A FRONT ALONG WITH IT INTO ARKANSAS AND MISSISSIPPI
THIS AFTERNOON THEN INTO ALABAMA TONIGHT. ALTHOUGH ENOUGH MOISTURE
IS EXPECTED TO OUR NORTHWEST TODAY ACROSS THE MID MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY AND ACROSS TENNESSEE TONIGHT CLOSER TO THE UPPER LOW/
TROUGH...WE ARE NOT EXPECTING ANY PRECIPITATION ACROSS CENTRAL
ALABAMA WITH OR BEHIND THIS FRONT AS THE MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO
BE SHALLOW.

ON THE FLIP SIDE IN THE UPPER LEVELS...THE UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH
THAT BROUGHT SOME OVERRUNNING RAIN ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST PART OF
ALABAMA YESTERDAY AND OVERNIGHT IS SWINGING OUT OF THE AREA TO THE
EAST AND NORTHEAST SO OUR SOUTHEAST COUNTIES SHOULD BE DRY TODAY.

AS WE MOVE CLOSER IN TIME TO TODAY`S SYSTEM...THE UPPER LEVELS ARE
COMING A LITTLE MORE ORGANIZED AND SHOW A LITTLE BETTER THOUGH
ACROSS UPPER MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES AND THUS BRINGING A LITTLE
BETTER NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS ALABAMA IN ITS WAKE. SO...EXPECTING
TO SEE A DIP IN THE TEMPERATURES FOR THANKSGIVING DAY AND NIGHT
WITH A MODERATING OF TEMPERATURES FOR FRIDAY AS WE HEAD INTO THE
WEEKEND AS THE UPPER FLOW FLATTENS AND BECOMES ZONAL.

FOR THE WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK...A FEW WEAK RIPPLES MAINLY TO THE
NORTH IN THE UPPER MAINLY ZONAL FLOW. CLOUD COVER WILL LIKELY
INCREASE BUT ONLY LOW POPS ARE ON TAP AT THIS TIME AS WE MOVE INTO
LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY DUE TO A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY ATTEMPTING
TO PUSH INTO ALABAMA. HOWEVER...IT MAY STALL/FIZZLE OUT WITH ONLY
POOR UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT PROGGED AT THIS TIME.

08/MK

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF DISCUSSION.

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THRU THE PERIOD. WINDS WILL SWITCH
FROM NW TO SW BY THIS AFTERNOON IN RESPONSE TO AN APPROACHING
SECONDARY FRONT. THIS WILL PASS THRU CENTRAL ALABAMA THIS EVENING
WITH WINDS SWITCHING BACK TO THE NW. SPEEDS WILL GENERALLY BE 7-10
KTS THRU MUCH OF THE PERIOD...WITH SOME LIGHTER WINDS THIS MORNING.

19

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     53  35  46  28  51 /  10  10  10   0   0
ANNISTON    53  35  47  28  52 /  10  10  10   0   0
BIRMINGHAM  55  36  47  30  53 /  10  10  10   0   0
TUSCALOOSA  57  36  51  31  54 /  10  10   0   0   0
CALERA      55  36  49  31  53 /  10  10   0   0   0
AUBURN      55  37  51  31  53 /  10   0   0   0   0
MONTGOMERY  59  37  54  31  55 /   0   0   0   0   0
TROY        58  38  54  32  55 /  10  10   0   0   0

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$







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