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Area Forecast Discussion

692
FXUS64 KBMX 052318
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
618 PM CDT TUE MAY 5 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 00Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

QUIET WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE
WEEK...SO NOT MANY CHANGES TO THE FORECAST NEEDED TODAY. UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING WILL REMAIN THE DOMINANT PLAYER IN THE
FORECAST...KEEPING THE STORM TRACK TO OUR WEST AND NORTH...AND ANY
DEVELOPMENT IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WELL TO OUR EAST.

500MB HEIGHTS INCREASE BY THE END OF THE WEEK...ALLOWING
HIGH TEMPERATURES TO TOP OUT IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S FOR THE
WEEKEND. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW 90 DEGREE READINGS
ACROSS THE SOUTH ON SUNDAY. MODELS SHOW A COUPLE WEAK IMPULSES
ATTEMPTING TO ERODE THE RIDGE AT TIMES THROUGH THE WEEK. TYPICALLY
IN THESE PATTERN SETUPS...THE RIDGE HOLDS AND ANY SHOWER/TS
DEVELOPMENT IS QUITE LIMITED.

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN CONUS THIS WEEK FINALLY
SHIFTS EASTWARD LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD. ALTHOUGH MODELS SEEM
TO TREND SLIGHTLY SLOWER EACH DAY FOR THE RETURN OF RAIN CHANCES.
COULD SEE A FEW SHOWERS OR TS BACK IN THE AREA BY SUNDAY
NIGHT/MONDAY.

14


&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION.

NO FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOUR. WINDS PICK
BACK UP AROUND 7 KTS AFTER 15 FROM THE EAST-SOUTHEAST.

16

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$



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