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Area Forecast Discussion

684
FXUS64 KBMX 191158
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
658 AM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 12Z AVIATION.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

THE VORTICITY MAXIMUM THAT PRODUCED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ACROSS
CENTRAL ALABAMA ON MONDAY HAS PUSHED INTO NORTHERN GEORGIA. IN ITS
WAKE...A MID LEVEL TROF WAS LOCATED ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA. SHOWERS
HAVE BEEN DEVELOPING ALONG THIS BOUNDARY FROM LAMAR COUNTY EASTWARD
TO JEFFERSON COUNTY. WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES NEAR TWO INCHES
ACROSS AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-20...THE BOUNDARY WILL ACT AS A
FOCUS FOR CONVECTION TODAY...AND RAISED POPS TO LIKELY FOR THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA. DO NOT EXPECT SEVERE STORMS TODAY DUE
WEAKER FORCING AND CLOUD COVER. AN UPPER RIDGE AXIS NEAR THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER WILL EXPAND NORTHEAST TONIGHT AND THE BELT OF
DEEPER MOISTURE WILL SHIFT EASTWARD. SOME OF THE CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY FROM THIS AFTERNOON MAY LINGER INTO THE EARLY EVENING
HOURS...AND WILL KEEP AT LEAST SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN FOR AL AREAS.
THE MODELS ARE HINTING AT ANOTHER MCS MOVING ACROSS MIDDLE TENNESSEE
LATER TONIGHT AND PUSHING ACROSS NORTHEAST ALABAMA TOWARDS SUNRISE
WEDNESDAY. KEPT LOW END CHANCE POPS FOR THE NORTHEAST CORNER OF
CENTRAL ALABAMA AND SLIGHT CHANCE FOR WEDNESDAY ACROSS EXTREME EAST
ALABAMA. BY THURSDAY THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BE TAKING FIRM HOLD OF
THE CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION AND SUPPRESSING RAIN CHANCES ACROSS
CENTRAL ALABAMA. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO RISE INTO
THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 90S ON THURSDAY.

58/ROSE

.LONG TERM...
FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

A STRONG UPPER HIGH WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS ALABAMA
DURING THIS PERIOD. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 90S WITH A FEW LOCATIONS
POSSIBLY REACHING 100 DEGREES. THE ONLY GOOD NEWS IS THAT THE
DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO FALL EACH AFTERNOON DUE TO
MIXING OF DRIER AIR ALOFT. HEAT INDICES WILL BE APPROACHING THE
CRITICAL 105 DEGREES MARK FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOONS...
MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES. LOW CONFIDENCE HEAT THREAT
WILL BE ADDED TO THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK. BY MONDAY THE AXIS
OF THE UPPER RIDGE MAY BECOME ORIENTED SO THAT SOME DEEPER MOISTURE
PUSHES WESTWARD ACROSS THE BOTTOM SIDE OF THE HIGH...AND
INTRODUCED SMALL RAIN CHANCES TO SOUTHEAST ALABAMA.

58/ROSE


&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF DISCUSSION.

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS HAVE IMPACTED SEVERAL OF
THE NORTHERN TERMINALS THIS MORNING SUCH AS KBHM...KEET...AND
KANB. KANB WILL SEE TSRA THROUGH AT LEAST 13Z THIS MORNING AS THE
WIDESPREAD CONVECTION MOVES EASTWARD. ALSO...IFR TO MVFR CIGS
COULD CONTINUE UNTIL AT LEAST 14-15Z THIS MORNING MUCH LIKE WHAT
WAS OBSERVED DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY. EVENTUALLY THE LOWER CIGS
SHOULD RISE AND MIX OUT SOMEWHAT BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS. ALL
TERMINALS WILL SEE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS THIS
AFTERNOON...AND VCTS WAS INCLUDED FOR ALL TERMINALS THROUGH THE
DAY AND INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. PREVAILING WINDS WILL BE
FROM THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

56/GDG

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     88  71  92  72  94 /  60  30  20  10  10
ANNISTON    89  71  93  72  95 /  60  20  20  10  10
BIRMINGHAM  90  73  95  74  96 /  60  20  10  10  10
TUSCALOOSA  90  73  95  73  98 /  50  20  10  10  10
CALERA      90  73  93  73  96 /  60  20  10  10  10
AUBURN      89  72  92  74  95 /  70  20  20  10  10
MONTGOMERY  90  74  94  74  98 /  70  20  10  10  10
TROY        90  73  93  73  96 /  70  20  10  10  10

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$





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