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Area Forecast Discussion

665
FXUS64 KBMX 031804
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
104 PM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016

.UPDATE...
FOR 18Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

A ANALYSIS OF SURFACE DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA
DEPICTS A SURFACE COOL FRONT JUST SOUTH OF THE I-20 CORRIDOR.
THERE HAVE BEEN A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS SOUTH ALABAMA THIS
MORNING...BUT ACTIVITY HAS NOT BEEN FOCUSED ALONG ANY BOUNDARY.
EXPECT TO SEE AN UPTICK IN CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON FOR AREAS
ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-85 WHERE SURFACE DEWPOINTS ARE STILL IN THE
60S. THE SURFACE FRONT IS FAIRLY SHALLOW...SO THERE IS PLENTY OF
MOISTURE NORTH OF THE FRONT...AND EXPECT SKIES TO REMAIN MOSTLY
CLOUDY ACROSS THOSE AREAS THAT WHERE NO RAIN IS FORECAST. NO
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE TO FORECAST.

58/ROSE


&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

A COOL FRONT WAS CURRENTLY LOCATED ALONG A DEMOPOLIS TO ALEXANDER
CITY LINE. SOUTH OF THIS FRONT...SCT SHWRS AND A FEW TSTMS WILL
DEVELOP THRU 23Z...AND THEN DIMINISH QUICKLY DUE TO LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING. NORTH OF THE SFC FRONT...CIGS WERE RUNNING ARND
3500 FEET AGL...BUT CLOUDS SHOULD THIN OUT AFTER 21Z WITH SCT-BKN
CONDS THRU 03Z. LOW CLOUDS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP AFTER 03Z DUE TO
MOIST CONDS BELOW 5000 FEET AND LIFT ALONG COOL FRONT. BEST CHANCE
FOR MVFR CIGS WILL BE ACROSS SOUTH ALABAMA...INCLUDING KMGM AND
KTOI. MODELS SHOW DRIER AIR FILTERING INTO THE AREA AFTER 12Z
WITH CLEAR SKIES AT ALL SITES BY 15Z.

58/ROSE

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH CENTRAL ALABAMA TODAY AND WILL
TRIGGER SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY SOUTH OF I-20.
THE RAIN WILL SHIFT OUT OF SOUTH ALABAMA TONIGHT AS THE FRONT PUSHES
THROUGH THE AREA. MUCH COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY. ALTHOUGH A SHORT WAVE DISTURBANCE WILL SLIDE THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING AND PROVIDE A BRIEF 3 TO 6 HOUR WINDOW
FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS MAINLY NORTH OF I-85. WARMING
TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND AS AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE AREA.
NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS AT THIS TIME.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     49  73  46  68  44 /  10  20  40   0   0
ANNISTON    53  73  47  67  45 /  10  10  40   0   0
BIRMINGHAM  54  73  49  70  47 /  10  10  40   0   0
TUSCALOOSA  52  75  48  72  48 /  10  10  20   0   0
CALERA      54  73  50  70  48 /  10  10  20   0   0
AUBURN      56  73  51  69  48 /  10   0  20   0   0
MONTGOMERY  57  76  52  73  49 /  10  10  10   0   0
TROY        56  76  53  72  48 /  20  10  10   0   0

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$



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