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Area Forecast Discussion

112
FXUS64 KBMX 241019
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
419 AM CST SAT JAN 24 2015

.DISCUSSION...

SURFACE LOW HAS PUSHED WELL TO THE EAST...AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH AXIS IS RAPIDLY APPROACHING
ALABAMA AS WELL. RADAR SWEEPS EARLY THIS MORNING SHOW PATCHY LIGHT
PRECIPITATION FROM ROUGHLY CLANTON NORTHWARD AND EASTWARD. THERE
HAS BEEN SOME SNOW REPORTED MIXED IN WITH RAIN ON THE NORTHERN
SIDE OF THE FORECAST AREA. BUT WITH TEMPERATURES STILL ABOVE
FREEZING...ANY REMAINING SNOW THAT HAPPENS TO FALL SHOULD QUICKLY
MELT.

TIMING OUT THE BACK EDGE...IT LOOKS LIKE THIS LAST AREA OF
PRECIPITATION SHOULD EXIT THE EASTERN PART OF THE AREA BY 15Z.
NORTHWEST WINDS HAVE PICKED UP A BIT...ENOUGH TO HELP DISPERSE AND
DISSIPATE THE DENSE FOG THAT HAD FORMED IN A FEW SPOTS EARLIER.
THEREFORE WE HAVE CANCELED THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY ISSUED EARLIER.
RAPID CLEARING IS FOLLOWING IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING SYSTEM...AND
MOST OF THE AREA SHOULD SEE AMPLE SUNSHINE THIS AFTERNOON.

ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO DROP SOUTHEASTWARD INTO
THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. SINCE IT IS SO
QUICKLY ON THE HEALS OF OUR CURRENT SYSTEM...THERE IS NOT A LOT OF
MOISTURE AVAILABLE WITH IT. LATEST MODEL OUTPUT SHOWS PERHAPS A
FEW SPOTS OF RAIN QUICKLY PASSING THROUGH THE FAR NORTHEASTERN
CORNER OF THE CWA SUNDAY NIGHT.

BEYOND THAT...THINGS LOOK DRY. THE UPPER FLOW REMAINS LARGELY
NORTHWESTERLY...WHICH IMPLIES NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
AND LIMITED MOISTURE.

/61/

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF DISCUSSION.

WIDESPREAD IFR TO LIFR CIGS CONTINUE TO AFFECT TERMINALS ACROSS
CENTRAL ALABAMA. FOGGY CONDITIONS ALSO CONTINUE...ALTHOUGH VIS HAVE
INCREASED TO GENERALLY MVFR. A BAND OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT...WHICH COULD BRIEFLY REDUCE CONDITIONS BY
A CATEGORY AT TIMES. GREATER POSSIBILITY OF A WINTRY MIX WILL BE
NORTH OF ALL TERMINALS...BUT DO NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW
SNOWFLAKES OR ICE PELLETS MIXED IN WITH LIGHT RAIN AT TCL...BHM...OR
ANB. NO ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED AT TERMINALS. HAVE TIMED OUT WHEN
LIGHT PRECIP SHOULD END EARLY SATURDAY MORNING BASED ON CURRENT
RADAR...ALTHOUGH NEAR TERM GUIDANCE SHOWS THIS PRECIP SHIELD ERODING
AS IT MOVES EASTWARD. THERE WILL BE A PERIOD OF GUSTY WINDS
OVERNIGHT...WITH GUSTS AROUND 15KTS.

DRIER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA EARLY SATURDAY MORNING ALONG WITH
A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE. CIGS WILL BEGIN TO IMPROVE AS THIS
OCCURS...ALTHOUGH EXPECT IT TO BE A SLOW IMPROVEMENT WITH MVFR CIGS
LASTING THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS.

14


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     47  32  56  37  45 /  10   0  10  20  10
ANNISTON    47  33  57  37  46 /  20   0  10  20  10
BIRMINGHAM  48  34  58  37  47 /  10   0  10  10  10
TUSCALOOSA  51  34  60  39  49 /   0   0  10  10   0
CALERA      49  34  58  38  47 /  10   0  10  10   0
AUBURN      49  35  57  40  48 /  10   0   0  10   0
MONTGOMERY  51  34  61  40  51 /  10   0   0  10   0
TROY        50  35  60  40  51 /  10   0   0  10   0

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$





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