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Area Forecast Discussion

335
FXUS64 KBMX 011515
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1015 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

.UPDATE...
MORNING UPDATE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

CENTRAL ALABAMA IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF AN UPPER HIGH CENTERED
NEAR THE GEORGIA COAST. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES THIS MORNING ARE
NEAR THE 75TH PERCENTILE...SO THERE PLENTY OF MOISTURE AVAILABLE
FOR AFTERNOON CONVECTION. MESO-SCALE MODELS DO NOT SHOW ANY
ORGANIZED DEVELOPMENT TODAY...JUST THE POP-UP VARIETY RESULTING
FROM DIURNAL HEATING. A THICK LAYER OF MID LEVEL CLOUDS BLANKETED
THE I-20 CORRIDOR FROM TUSCALOOSA TO BIRMINGHAM THIS MORNING...AND
THERE MIGHT BE JUST ENOUGH DIFFERENTIAL HEATING TO INITIATE
CONVECTION...BUT NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO SHOW ANY SPECIFIC AREAS
WITH HIGHER RAIN CHANCES. THE BOTTOM EDGE OF A SHORT WAVE TROF WAS
APPROACHING WESTERN TENNESSEE...AND THIS FEATURE WILL LIKELY KICK
OFF SOME CONVECTION ACROSS NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI THIS AFTERNOON.
SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY COULD REACH NW ALABAMA...AND ADDED SLIGHT
CHANCE OF STORMS TO THE NW COUNTIES. FOR NOW BLANKETED THE AREA
WITH 20 PERCENT POPS...BUT MAY NEED TO UPDATE LATER BASED ON RADAR
TRENDS.

58/ROSE

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF DISCUSSION.

KEPT THE FORECAST VFR FOR AL LOCATIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD. PATCHY
MVFR FOG HAS DEVELOPED...BUT WAS ISOLATED AND NOT AFFECTING ANY
TERMINALS AT RELEASE. THE OVERALL LACK OF MEAN MOISTURE AND LIFT
WILL KEEP SHOWERS AND STORMS MORE LIMITED THAN THE PAST FEW DAYS.
THEREFORE...NO MENTION OF ANY PRECIP IN THE FORECAST ALTHOUGH
ISOLATED ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED EAST. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS
NEAR THE SPINE OF THE APPALACHIANS WHICH WILL KEEP SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST WINDS ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA. THESE WINDS WILL BE AROUND
6 KTS DAYTIME AND LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT.

75


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 648 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014/

LOOKING AT THE BIG PICTURE...UPPER LEVEL RIDGING CONTINUES ACROSS
THE SOUTHEAST CONUS WITH A STRONG SHORTWAVE PUSHING EASTWARD
ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND MIDWEST. CLOSER TO HOME...THE
REMNANTS OF THE VORTICITY/TROUGH EXITING TO THE NORTHEAST IS
PRODUCING SOME HIGH CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE STATE AS WELL AS A FEW
LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS NE AL. AT THE SFC...SOME PATCHES OF FOG IS
BEING OBSERVED IN AREAS WHERE THERE IS LESS CLOUD COVER. ABUNDANT
MOISTURE COMBINED WITH LIFT WILL ALLOW FOR SOME ISOLATED
SHOWERS/STORMS ACROSS EAST CENTRAL ALABAMA PRIMARILY DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS TODAY.

THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD SLIGHTLY WESTWARD INTO MID WEEK BUT
SMALL WEAKNESSES WITHIN THE RIDGE WILL ALLOW FOR DIURNAL
CONVECTION EACH DAY. MODELS DEPICT A WEAK SFC BOUNDARY PUSHING
SOUTHWARD INTO TN/KY BY TUESDAY NIGHT BEFORE STALLING. THIS
FEATURE SHOULDN`T HAVE MUCH IF ANY IMPACT ACROSS OUR AREA.
THEREFORE HAVE MAINTAINED CLIMO POPS OF 20-30 PERCENT EACH
AFTERNOON AND EVENING THRU MUCH OF THE WORK WEEK. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE LOW/MID
90S.

CONVECTIVE COVERAGE LOOKS TO BE A BIT BETTER OVER THE WEEKEND AS
ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS PROGGED TO SLIDE SOUTHWARD INTO THE
REGION. UNSURE OF JUST HOW FAR SOUTH THE BOUNDARY WILL PUSH BUT IT
SHOULD BE CLOSE ENOUGH TO HELP AID IN INCREASING SHOWER/STORM
COVERAGE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. SFC FLOW LOOKS TO BECOME NORTHERLY
DURING THIS TIME WHICH WILL HELP BRING TEMPS BACK DOWN NEAR NORMAL.

19

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     92  70  93  68  92 /  20  10  20  20  30
ANNISTON    91  71  92  70  94 /  20  10  20  20  30
BIRMINGHAM  93  75  93  74  94 /  20  10  20  20  30
TUSCALOOSA  94  73  94  72  95 /  20  10  20  20  30
CALERA      94  73  93  72  94 /  20  10  20  20  30
AUBURN      92  72  93  72  93 /  20  10  20  20  30
MONTGOMERY  95  73  95  73  96 /  20  10  20  20  30
TROY        94  71  93  71  94 /  20  10  20  20  30

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$







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