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Area Forecast Discussion

127
FXUS64 KBMX 282357
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
657 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 00Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED AGAIN ACROSS
CENTRAL ALABAMA IN RESPONSE TO A WEAK SHORTWAVE INTERACTING WITH
PERSISTENT INCREASED MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA. SEEN AN INCREASE IN
COVERAGE WITH DAYTIME HEATING...AND EXPECT COVERAGE TO DECREASE
AFTER THE SUNSETS. DESPITE RAINFALL AND HIGH LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE...BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS REMAIN ELEVATED TONIGHT...SIMILAR
TO LAST NIGHT...AND EXPECT ONLY LOCALIZED TO PATCHY FOG LATE
TONIGHT.

NOT MANY CHANGES NEEDED TO THE FORECAST THROUGH MID NEXT WEEK...AS
THE OVERALL WEATHER PATTERN DOES NOT CHANGE MUCH. AIRMASS WILL
REMAIN MOIST...WITH A COUPLE DIFFERENT MECHANISMS RESPONSIBLE FOR
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH PERIOD. THE SHORTWAVE
CROSSING THE AREA TODAY WILL DAMPEN AS IT PULLS OFF TO THE
NORTHEAST...TO BE REPLACED BY ANOTHER WEAK IMPULSE TOMORROW.
RIDGING BUILDS ALONG THE EAST COAST AS A TROUGH AMPLIFIES ACROSS
THE PLAINS. INITIAL SHORTWAVE ROTATING THROUGH THE TROUGH WILL
BRING A FRONT TOWARD THE TENNESSEE VALLEY THIS WEEKEND...AND
EXPECT AN INCREASE IN CONVECTION...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WEST
WHERE BETTER FORCING AND GREATER MOISTURE WILL BE. A PIECE OF
ENERGY BREAKS OFF BECOMING A CLOSED LOW OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY EARLY NEXT WEEK...PROVIDING THE NEEDED FOCUS FOR
CONVECTION EACH DAY. SLIGHT DIFFERENCES MOISTURE AXIS LOCATION
WILL DETERMINE WHERE BETTER COVERAGE IS EACH DAY...SO FOR NOW WILL
CARRY CHANCE POPS DURING THE DAY WITH LOWER POPS OVERNIGHT DUE TO
DIURNAL INFLUENCES.

14

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION.

NUMEROUS TO WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND TOI...ANB...ASN...AND MGM WITH
ISOLATED SHOWERS AT BHM AND EET. TCL SHOULD REMAIN DRY THROUGH 6Z.
MOST OF THE ACTIVITY SHOULD DISSIPATE BY 4 TO 6Z. PATCHY FOG/LOW
CLOUDS MAY ONCE AGAIN BE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT AT ALL SITES. LOOKS
LIKE THE BOUNDARY MOVES BACK WEST TOMORROW WITH THE BEST CHANCES
AT WEST OF I-65. WITH THAT SAID THOUGHT THERE IS AT LEAST A
CHANCE FOR VCTS AT ALL SITES AFTER 19Z SO INCLUDED THIS FOR THE
AFTERNOON.

16

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     66  84  65  85  66 /  50  40  20  30  20
ANNISTON    67  84  65  85  66 /  60  40  20  20  20
BIRMINGHAM  68  84  67  86  68 /  30  40  20  30  20
TUSCALOOSA  68  87  68  86  68 /  20  40  20  40  30
CALERA      67  85  66  86  67 /  30  30  20  30  20
AUBURN      66  84  66  86  68 /  80  30  10  10  10
MONTGOMERY  68  88  67  89  69 /  60  30  20  20  10
TROY        66  87  65  89  68 /  60  20  10  10  10

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$



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