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Area Forecast Discussion

FXUS64 KBMX 232336

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
636 PM CDT TUE AUG 23 2016

For 00Z Aviation.



Most of you are dry out there this afternoon as the dry airmass
has taken over much of the area. Just a few isolated showers and
storms have developed in the corners of the forecast area. What
activity does develop this afternoon, will dissipate after sunset.
As we move into the day on Wednesday, a westward moving shortwave
will slide through during the afternoon. This will help trigger
scattered showers/storms during the afternoon. mainly along and
south of the I-59 corridor. A few strong storms are possible, but
severe weather is not anticipated.

Once this wave moves through, we will dry out across much of the
area and will remain fairly dry, with a warming trend through the
weekend. High pressure will continue to build over the area
through the week, so only isolated showers/storms are possible
each afternoon.

As we move into the first of next week, eyes will likely be
focused on the Gulf of Mexico. Right now, the Hurricane Center is
monitoring an area of disturbed weather a few hundred miles east
of the Lesser Antilles. This system has become less organized
during the day today and further investigation will occur on
Wednesday. Formation through the next 48 hours is only 40 percent
as the environment is not quite conducive at this time. Within the
next 5 days though there is a 60 percent. This system will need to
be watched as the overall synoptic scale is favorable to reach the
Gulf of Mexico toward the end of the period. To what extent will
it be organized is yet to be defined and models continue to be
divergent on solutions, with the Euro being the more bullish and
the GFS being less. Stay tuned for the latest.



00Z TAF Discussion.

A few stronger cumulus towers are managing to mature into pulse
showers and thunderstorms early this evening. The best potential
for this activity is near and east of MGM-TOI as a few outflow
boundaries move about the area. I`ll remain on watch for any necessary
amendments during the first few hours of this evening. For the
remainder of tonight, fair weather and light winds will trend. The
main question circles around prospects for patchy fog overnight/early
Wednesday morning. We`ll re-evaluate this tonight.

Scattered cumulus develops toward mid-day on Wednesday, with
isolated-to-scattered showers and thunderstorms following suit
deeper into the afternoon hours. The projected setup suggests a
southwest-to-northeast gradient in activity, placing BHM-TCL on
the less-active side, with the remaining terminals carrying better
chances at this time. I`ve gone with PROB30 TSRA for all but BHM-TCL
to start, and will leave more definite mentions to TAFs closer to
the afternoon time frame. East-southeasterly/southeasterly surface
winds around 5-knots are expected.




Scattered showers and storms on Wednesday moving from east to
west as easterly flow increases over the area. A prolonged period
of generally dry conditions may begin Thursday and continue into
the weekend. Critical fire weather conditions are not expected.


Gadsden     70  90  71  93  71 /  20  30  10  10  10
Anniston    72  90  71  93  71 /  20  40  20  10  10
Birmingham  73  92  74  94  74 /  10  30  20  10  10
Tuscaloosa  73  95  74  95  73 /  10  30  20  20  10
Calera      73  92  73  94  73 /  10  40  20  10  10
Auburn      72  90  72  91  72 /  20  50  10  10  10
Montgomery  73  94  74  95  73 /  10  50  20  10  10
Troy        73  92  72  93  71 /  20  40  20  10  10





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