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Area Forecast Discussion

130
FXUS64 KBMX 220155
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
855 PM CDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.UPDATE...
EVENING UPDATE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WERE LOCATED ACROSS NORTH ALABAMA ALONG
A PRE-FRONTAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. THE REAL COLD FRONT WAS MARKED BY A
NICE DROP IN DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES. THE ACTUAL FRONT HAS MOVED THROUGH
MEMPHIS AND NASHVILLE WHERE DEWPOINTS WERE 61 AND 49 RESPECTIVELY.
DEWPOINT AT TUPELO WAS STILL A MUGGY 71 DEGREES. THE CONVECTION
WAS MOVING FAIRLY QUICKLY TO THE SOUTHEAST AND EXPECT THE RAIN TO
BE MOSTLY SOUTH OF I-20 BY MIDNIGHT. NORTH WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL
LIKELY KEEP TEMPERATURES UP A LITTLE AND RAISED OVERNIGHT LOWS A
FEW DEGREES MOST AREAS.

58/ROSE

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE STILL ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
A COLD FRONT WITH SCATTERED CONVECTION OUT AHEAD IS EXPECTED TO
PASS THROUGH CENTRAL ALABAMA OVERNIGHT TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING. DUE TO LIMITED COVERAGE EXPECTED...NO MENTION OF THUNDER
OR SHOWERS WERE MENTIONED IN THE TAFS. CIGS WITH THE FRONT ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN VFR...WITH SOME SCATTERED MVFR CIGS AT TIMES.
CLEAR SKIES WILL RETURN WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT MONDAY
AFTERNOON. SURFACE WINDS WILL PREVAIL FROM THE WEST AHEAD OF THE
FRONT THEN SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH MONDAY MORNING.

NOTE...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILL BEGIN ISSUING SEASONAL
TERMINAL FORECASTS FOR THE TALLADEGA MUNICIPAL AIRPORT (KASN) IN
TALLADEGA...ALABAMA. THE FORECAST WILL BEGIN OCTOBER 5TH AT 00Z
AND LAST THROUGH AT LEAST THE 23RD OF OCTOBER.

56/GDG


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 711 PM CDT SUN SEP 21 2014/

EXPECT ACTIVITY TO INCREASE TO MORE OF A BROKEN LINE WITH OVERALL
SCATTERED COVERAGE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS
NORTHERN ALABAMA...NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI...AND NORTHERN GEORGIA.
THE MAIN LINE OF OF SHOWERS/STORMS LOOKS TO APPROACH THE AREA
BETWEEN 5 AND 8 PM AND MOVE THROUGH THE NORTH THROUGH 10 PM. AFTER
10 PM...ACTIVITY WILL DECREASE IN OVERALL COVERAGE. THE STRENGTH
OF THE SYSTEM...COUPLED WITH DAYTIME HEATING...MIGHT RESULT IN A
STRONG WIND GUST OR TWO...AS IS THE CASE WITH MOST THUNDERSTORMS
THIS TIME OF YEAR BUT SEVERE POTENTIAL IS LOW.

THE FRONT WILL QUICKLY DROP SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE AREA
TONIGHT...WITH CONVECTION DIMINISHING IN STRENGTH AND COVERAGE
WITH TIME. BY SUNRISE...THE FRONT WILL BE ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS
OF THE AREA. ENHANCEMENT OF CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE WITH DAYTIME
HEATING...BUT SHOULD BE CONFINED TO FAR SOUTHEASTERN LOCATIONS AS
THE FRONT QUICKLY MOVES SOUTH OF THE AREA.

STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE MIDWEST BEHIND
THE FRONT. DRIER AND COOLER AIR WILL FILTER SOUTHWARD...WITH HIGHS
ON MONDAY IN THE UPPER 70S NORTH TO UPPER 80S SOUTH...AND
OVERNIGHT LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 50S. ITS POSSIBLE A FEW OF THE
TYPICAL COOLER LOCATIONS ACROSS THE FAR NORTH COULD SEE UPPER 40S
TUESDAY MORNING.

A RETURN TO EASTERLY FLOW SHOULD BRING MENTIONABLE RAIN CHANCES
BACK INTO THE AREA FOR THE END OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND...
PARTICULARLY IN THE AFTERNOONS.

16

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     61  78  52  80  53 /  20   0   0   0   0
ANNISTON    63  77  55  80  56 /  20  10   0   0   0
BIRMINGHAM  62  79  55  82  57 /  20   0   0   0   0
TUSCALOOSA  64  83  55  84  58 /  20   0   0   0   0
CALERA      64  81  56  82  57 /  20  10   0   0   0
AUBURN      65  84  59  83  58 /  20  20   0   0   0
MONTGOMERY  67  85  58  85  59 /  20  20   0   0   0
TROY        65  86  57  84  59 /  10  20  10   0   0

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$







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