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Area Forecast Discussion

638
FXUS64 KBMX 220958
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
458 AM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...

SURFACE ANALYSIS THIS MORNING REVEALS THAT THE SURFACE COLD FRONT
THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH CENTRAL ALABAMA TODAY IS CURRENTLY MOVING
EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...SHOWERS AND SOME
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED WITH A MAJORITY OF THE HEAVIEST
ACTIVITY MOVING THROUGH WESTERN MISSISSIPPI. A DISTINCT
COUNTER-CLOCKWISE SPIN WAS NOTED ON REGIONAL RADAR NEAR GREENVILLE
MISSISSIPPI THIS MORNING...AND APPEARS TO BE AN MCV. THAT MCV
ACTUALLY TRACKED ALL THE WAY ACROSS ARKANSAS DURING THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING HOURS YESTERDAY. WE`LL SEE WHAT`S LEFT OF THE MCV MOVE
ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTIONS OUR CWA THROUGH NOON TODAY...TRIGGERING
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS. I`VE GONE AHEAD AND RAISED POPS TO
DEFINITE ALONG AND WEST OF I-65 THIS MORNING...WITH LIKELY POPS
MENTIONED ACROSS THE REST OF CENTRAL ALABAMA. WE`RE STILL NOT
LOOKING AT ANYTHING OVERLY IMPRESSIVE WITH THIS SYSTEM AS THERE WILL
BE SOME MARGINAL INSTABILITY DURING THE AFTERNOON BUT MINIMAL SHEAR
TO SUPPORT SUSTAINED UPDRAFTS. WE`LL SEE MORE IN THE WAY OF SHOWER
DEVELOPMENT DURING THE MORNING HOURS TODAY...THEN MORE THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTHWARD WHERE MORE
DAYTIME HEATING WILL BE OBSERVED THROUGH NOON TODAY. ONCE
AGAIN...SOME STRONG STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH GUSTY WINDS AND
SMALL HAIL BUT THOSE WILL BE MORE ISOLATED IN NATURE. WE`LL MONITOR
THE MESOSCALE TRENDS THROUGHOUT THE DAY TODAY JUST TO MAKE SURE THAT
WE DON`T HAVE ANY HIGHER INSTABILITIES THAN ARE CURRENTLY BEING
ADVERTISED BY THE CURRENT HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE. THE FRONT SHOULD
QUICKLY MOVE SOUTHWARD THROUGH CENTRAL ALABAMA BY THIS EVENING WITH
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY QUICKLY DIMINISHING AFTER SUNSET.

DRIER AND COOLER AIR MOVES IN FROM THE NORTH DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS TONIGHT WITH LOWS EXPECTED IN THE UPPER 40S ACROSS OUR
NORTHERN COUNTIES. SUNNY SKIES RETURN FOR THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY WITH
MILD TEMPS EXPECTED RANGING FROM THE MID 70S NORTH TO THE LOWER 80S
SOUTH. MODERATING TEMPERATURES WILL COMMENCE THROUGH THE LATTER
PORTION OF THE WEEK WITH THE WARMEST TEMPS WE`VE SEEN SO FAR THIS
YEAR. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL HELP TO RAISE TEMPS WELL INTO THE MID
80S...WITH SOME UPPER 80S ACROSS THE SOUTH NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. A WEAK COLD FRONT IS STILL EXPECTED TO MOVE
SOUTHWARD INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY BY EARLY SATURDAY MORNING...BUT
LONG RANGE GUIDANCE IS NOW IN AGREEMENT THAT THE FRONT SHOULD STALL
JUST OFF TO OUR NORTH. WITH THE STALLED FRONT REMAINING IN THE
AREA...CHANCE TO SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WILL STILL BE WARRANTED THURSDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY WITH THE ACTIVITY DIURNALLY DRIVEN.

LOOKING AHEAD INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...THE LONG-RANGE GUIDANCE IS
TRYING TO COME INTO MORE OF A CONSENSUS WITH THE POTENT PACIFIC
SYSTEM THAT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST AND PLAINS STATES ON
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. IT NOW APPEARS THAT A SIGNIFICANT SEVERE
WEATHER EVENT WILL BE LIKELY FROM CENTRAL TEXAS STRETCHING NORTHWARD
INTO KANSAS AND MISSOURI ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. HOW STRONG THAT
SYSTEM WILL BE AND HOW IT EVOLVES AS IT MOVES EASTWARD BY MONDAY AND
TUESDAY IS STILL UP IN THE AIR AT THIS POINT...AS THE GFS AND ECMWF
ARE STARTING TO AGREE IN THE OVERALL UPPER LEVEL SETUP BUT DIFFER IN
THE STRENGTH OF THE LONGWAVE TROUGH/CLOSED UPPER LOW DEVELOPMENT
OVER THE PLAINS STATES. SINCE THIS IS THE FIRST SUITE OF GUIDANCE
THAT APPEARS TO BE LOCKING INTO AN AGREEABLE SOLUTION...WE`LL HOLD
OFF ON MENTIONING ANYTHING IN THE HWO FOR MONDAY AT THIS TIME.
HOWEVER...IF GUIDANCE TRENDS CONTINUE WE`LL LIKELY HAVE TO ADD IN A
SEVERE THREAT AND/OR HEAVY RAIN/FLOOD THREAT TO THE HWO OVER THE
COMING DAYS. FORTUNATELY...WE`LL HAVE PLENTY OF TIME TO WATCH THE
EVOLUTION OF THIS SYSTEM AND WILL KEEP YOU POSTED THROUGHOUT THE
WEEK.

56/GDG

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF DISCUSSION.

THE ONLY REAL CHANGE FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST WAS THE ADDITION OF
A MENTION FOR SOME POSSIBLE FOG AT MGM AND TOI. THE MID/HIGH
CLOUDS ARE TAKING A BIT LONGER TO WORK INTO THE AREA THAN
PREVIOUSLY ANTICIPATED SO THE LONGER THE SKIES REMAIN CLEAR THE
BETTER CHANCE AT FOG DEVELOPING IN THE SOUTHEAST. DUE TO
UNCERTAINTY HAVE STARTED WITH A TEMPO GROUP FOR NOW...BUT THIS MAY
NEED TO BE ADJUSTED AS WE GO THRU THE NIGHT.

OTHERWISE...RAIN/STORMS WILL INCREASE FROM NW TO SE ON TUESDAY.
STILL NOT SEEING MUCH SUPPORT FOR REALLY LOW CIGS SO WILL MAINTAIN
VFR FOR THE TIME BEING. RAIN CHANCES WILL TAPER OFF BY EVENING AS
THE FRONT PASSES THRU. WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM SW TO NW BEHIND THE FRONT.

NOTE...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IS NOW ISSUING SEASONAL
TERMINAL FORECASTS FOR THE TALLADEGA MUNICIPAL AIRPORT (KASN) IN
TALLADEGA...ALABAMA. THE FORECASTS WILL BE ISSUED THROUGH AT LEAST
MAY 8TH 00Z. DUE TO THE LIMITED AVAILABILITY OF OBSERVATIONS...
KASN TAF WILL HAVE AMD NOT SKED APPENDED TO THE END OF THE FORECAST.

19

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     74  48  74  48  81 /  70  10   0   0   0
ANNISTON    74  50  76  47  82 /  70  10   0   0   0
BIRMINGHAM  73  49  78  50  83 /  80  10   0   0   0
TUSCALOOSA  75  52  78  49  84 /  90  10   0   0   0
CALERA      74  52  77  53  83 /  80  20   0   0   0
AUBURN      79  54  77  54  82 /  70  20   0   0   0
MONTGOMERY  79  57  79  54  85 /  70  20   0   0   0
TROY        81  59  79  55  84 /  60  20   0   0   0

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$







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