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Area Forecast Discussion

101
FXUS64 KBMX 270333
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1033 PM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

.UPDATE...
EVENING UPDATE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

SURFACE DEW POINTS RUNNING A BIT HIGHER THIS EVENING. THE MAIN
CHALLENGE OVERNIGHT WILL BE FOG DEVELOPMENT OR THE LACK THEREOF.
WENT AHEAD AND INCREASED LOWS BY ABOUT A DEGREE AND THIS WILL PUT
MOST PLACES NEAR THE SURFACE SATURATION BUT MOST PLACES STAY FAR
FROM THE CROSSOVER TEMP. WILL KEEP THE MENTION OF PATCHY FOG BUT
CONFIDENCE FOR DENSE FOG IS A BIT LACKING ALTHOUGH NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION ESPECIALLY NEAR WATER BODIES.

OTHERWISE...ALL FACETS OF FORECAST ARE ON TARGET. UPDATES OUT.

75

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION.

REMARKABLY CHANGEABLE/DYNAMIC WEATHER FOR MIDSUMMER...WITH LITTLE
EFFECT ON AVIATION FOR NOW. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS NEXT 24 HOURS.
POTENTIAL FOR ANY SIG WX GOES WELL BEYOND CURRENT TAF PERIOD.

ONE OF THE BENEFITS OF THE CHANGE IS THE DRIER AIR MASS THAT HAS
FINALLY PUSHED TO SOUTH ALABAMA. AS A RESULT...LACK OF MOISTURE
APPEARS TO RESTRICT OVERNIGHT FOG/LOW CLOUD CHANCES TO EXTREME
SOUTH ALABAMA...PERHAPS NOT EVEN AFFECTING TOI. STILL WILL HEDGE A
LITTLE DUE TO PROXIMITY OF MOISTURE...AND GO FOR A TEMPO 4SM BR
PERIOD AT TOI.

OTHERWISE...MAIN INDICATION OF CHANGING CONDITIONS NEXT 24 HRS
WILL BE INCREASING WSW WINDS DURING THE DAY TOMORROW AHEAD OF
APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM CONTAINED WITHIN AN OVERALL DEEPENING
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. FOR NOW WILL TOP OUT WINDS AT 12KTS AT BHM
DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS SUNDAY...AND THAT MAY BE CONSERVATIVE
THERE...AND OTHER TAF SITES AS WELL.

JD/02


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 339 PM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014/

THE RADAR IS ABSENT OF ANY PRECIP THIS AFTERNOON...A RESULT OF
SUBSIDENCE AND DRYING ABOVE 850MB. SOME OF THIS DRY AIR HAS MIXED
DOWN TO THE SURFACE ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN PARTS OF THE
AREA WITH SOME DEWPOINTS AS LOW AS THE UPPER 50S. A MOISTURE
GRADIENT IS EVIDENT BETWEEN TO THE WEST OF BIRMINGHAM WHERE
CUMULUS HAS DEVELOPED IN THE PRESENCE OF RICH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE.
OVERNIGHT LOWS TONIGHT MAY BE A BIT TRICKY AS SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
CONTRIBUTES TO POSITIVE MOISTURE ADVECTION OVERNIGHT. LOWS OF
67-70F SEEM REASONABLE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST WHERE DRIER HAS MIXED
DOWN...WITH WARMER READINGS TO THE SOUTH AND WEST.

HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL INCREASE 1-2F COMPARED TO TODAY AS WESTERLY
BOUNDARY-LAYER WINDS CAUSE SLIGHT WARM ADVECTION WITH 850MB TEMPS
OF 20-22C RESULTING IN SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE 93-97F RANGE.
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO APPEAR 2-4F TOO WARM...MUCH LIKE ON OTHER
OCCASIONS THIS SUMMER. WILL KEEP RAIN OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR
SUNDAY AS 500MB HEIGHTS OF 592-593DM AND ANTICYCLONIC FLOW WILL BE
INDICATIVE OF A WARM COLUMN WITH LIMITED MOISTURE ABOVE 800MB.

AS A LARGE TROUGH DEVELOPS ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. ON MONDAY...
NORTHWEST FLOW WILL DRIVE A FRONT SOUTHWARD SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY. REGARDING RAINFALL...THE NORTHERN PARTS OF THE AREA MAY
GET SKIPPED AS THE FRONT SLIPS BY ON MONDAY MORNING BEFORE PEAK
HEATING OCCURS. KEPT LOW POPS IN AFTER MIDNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT IN
CASE SOMETHING DEVELOPS...BUT THE BULK OF THE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED
TO OCCUR SOUTH OF I-20 MONDAY AFTERNOON. STORMS COULD BECOME
STRONG WITH ISOLATED SEVERE WIND GUSTS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION...
AS 500MB WINDS OF 30-35KTS CONTRIBUTE TO UPDRAFT ORGANIZATION AND
GROWTH INTO LINE SEGMENTS.

THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CLEAR THROUGH THE CWA WITH COOLER AND
DRIER CONDITIONS FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. RECORD LOWS ARE LIKELY
ON WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL
TAKE SEVERAL DAYS TO MOISTEN BEHIND THE FRONT...AND RAIN CHANCES
MAY NOT RETURN UNTIL FRIDAY.

87/GRANTHAM

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     69  95  74  88  63 /   0  10  30  20  10
ANNISTON    70  94  75  88  65 /   0  10  20  30  10
BIRMINGHAM  71  95  76  90  65 /   0  10  20  30  10
TUSCALOOSA  72  96  76  91  66 /   0  10  20  40  10
CALERA      71  95  75  90  67 /   0  10  20  40  10
AUBURN      71  94  75  91  68 /   0  10  10  60  20
MONTGOMERY  73  96  76  93  68 /   0  10  10  60  20
TROY        72  95  75  93  67 /   0  10  10  60  20

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$







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