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Area Forecast Discussion

789
FXUS64 KBMX 241747
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1247 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 18Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

NO CHANGES WERE NEEDED FOR THE FORECAST PACKAGE...WITH
TEMPS/DEWPOINTS/TRENDS RIGHT ON TRACK. SHOWERS DEVELOPING A LITTLE
LATER THAN ANTICIPATED...BUT INCREASING AT A GOOD CLIP ATTM.
PRODUCTS WERE REISSUED TO REMOVE MORNING WORDING.

02

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

LOW CLOUDS AND FOG LIFTED AS EXPECTED THIS MORNING...WITH LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE QUICKLY LIFTING INTO CU/TCU ONCE CONVECTIVE
TEMPERATURE WAS REACHED THIS MORNING. SHRA DEVELOPING ACROSS MUCH
OF THE AREA ATTM...AND WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE. NO
CONFIDENCE FOR SPECIFIC TIME COVERAGE OF TSTMS AT TAF SITES...SO
HELD TO VCTS AT ALL SITES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE
EVENING. APPROACHING FRONT FROM THE NW SHOULD SHUNT ACTIVITY TO
THE SE LATE THIS AFTN...COMING TO AN END EARLIER AT
TCL/BMX/EET/ANB THAN AT MGM/TOI.

BIG QUESTION FOR OVERNIGHT PERIOD WILL BE HOW FAR THE FRONT PUSHES
SOUTHWARD ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA. LOCATIONS ALONG SE OF FRONT CAN
EXPECT PLENTIFUL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN THE FORM OF FOG AND LOW
CLOUDS OVERNIGHT...WHILE LOCATIONS N OF FRONT WILL MORE LIKELY BE
PREDOMINANTLY AREAS OF FOG. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH IN GENERAL...BUT
NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO GO LIFR/VLIFR AT THIS POINT. BEST CHANCES FOR
THAT SHOULD BE MGM/TOI...AND PERHAPS EET/ANB DEPENDING ON HOW FAR
THE FRONT ACTUALLY PUSHES SOUTH THIS EVENING...AND WHETHER OR NOT
IT WAVERS AS FAR NORTH AS SOME MODELS ARE SUGGESTING.

02

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 632 AM CDT THU JUL 24 2014/

WATCHING SATELLITE AND RADAR TRENDS TO TRY AND FIGURE OUT THE POPS
FOR TODAY. WATER VAPOR CLEARLY SHOWING SOME MID AND UPPER LEVEL
DRYING TAKING PLACE ACROSS THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS THIS
MORNING. THE SURFACE FRONT WITH LOWER DEWPOINTS IS LAGGING BEHIND
AND IS JUST INTO NORTHWESTERN TENNESSEE. VERY LITTLE...IF
ANY...CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT SO WILL NEED A LITTLE EXTRA FORCING
TO GET SOME RAINFALL. THERE IS A SHORTWAVE THAT WILL PUSH THROUGH
LATER THIS MORNING AND ALONG WITH SOME HEATING...SHOULD GET SOME
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS DEVELOPING LATER TODAY.
HOWEVER...THIS WILL MORE THAN LIKELY HAPPEN FROM THE I-20 CORRIDOR
AND SOUTH SINCE SOME OF THE MID LEVEL DRY AIR IS ALREADY PUSHING
INTO THE STATE. THE LATEST HRRR IS ALSO SHOWING THIS WITH THE BEST
CONVECTION DEVELOPING JUST SOUTH OF THE BHM METRO AREA. WILL TWEAK
THE POPS THROUGH THE MORNING BUT SCATTERED MAY BE THE BETTER WAY
TO GO.

THE SURFACE BOUNDARY THAT IS COMING IN MAY VERY WELL HANG UP
ACROSS SOUTHEAST ALABAMA TODAY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SOME LINGERING
SHOWER CHANCES ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH FRIDAY. AT THIS
TIME...SATURDAY AND SUNDAY ARE PROBABLY DRY WITH VERY LIMITED RAIN
CHANCES AS THE STRONG WESTERN RIDGING BRIEFLY EXTENDS TOWARDS THE
DEEP SOUTH. THIS WILL ALSO CAUSE TEMPERATURES TO JUMP UP INTO THE
LOWER 90S WITH A FEW MID 90S MIXED IN AS WELL.

NEXT WEEK...THE WESTERN RIDGING BUILDS AND A DEEP TROUGH WILL
DIG ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS BEGINNING MONDAY. MID AND UPPER LEVEL
HEIGHTS ARE BETWEEN 2 AND 3 STANDARD DEVIATIONS BELOW NORMAL WHICH
WILL BRING ANOTHER SHOT OF COOLER THAN AVERAGE TEMPERATURES TO THE
DEEP SOUTH. THIS SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO THE TWO OTHER COOL AIRMASSES
WE HAVE SEEN THIS JULY WITH HIGHS ACROSS THE NORTHERN COUNTIES IN
THE LOWER 80S TO MID AND UPPER 80S IN THE SOUTH...LOWER DEWPOINTS
AND HUMIDITY WITH OVERNIGHT TEMPS INTO THE LOWER 60S. SEE NO
REASON WHY THE COOLER TEMPS WANT LAST THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK
WEEK. AS FOR RAINFALL...SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE AS THE FRONT PUSHES THROUGH ON MONDAY AND THEN DRY
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. SOME SHOWERS MAY RETURN TO THE AREA BY
THURSDAY AS A SHORTWAVE ROTATES THROUGH THE BASE OF THE TROUGH BUT
WE STILL HAVE PLENTY OF TIME TO LOOK AT THAT.

88

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$








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