« Back
NWS Peachtree City, Ga » Text Product » BMX Area Forecast Discussion


Printer-friendly Version     Surrounding:  BMX  MRX  FFC  CAE  TAE  
Current Version              Previous Versions:   1  2  3  4  5  6  7  8  9  

Area Forecast Discussion

328
FXUS64 KBMX 290917
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
417 AM CDT FRI APR 29 2016

.SHORT TERM...
TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT.

A FAIRLY QUIET OVERNIGHT PERIOD IS UPON CENTRAL ALABAMA. PATCHY
DENSE FOG HAS DEVELOPED OVER A FEW LOCATIONS, BUT WIDESPREAD FOG IS
NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. RELATIVELY DRIER AIR IS IN PLACE THIS
MORNING, AS THE OLD SURFACE FRONT MOVED NEAR THE I-20 CORRIDOR
YESTERDAY AND HAS SINCE WASHED OUT. IN TERMS OF THE FORECAST TODAY,
IT WILL BE CHARACTERIZED AS ONE OF OUR FIRST "HOT" DAYS OF THE YEAR.
LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES SHOULD EASILY SUPPORT MID TO UPPER 80S WITH A
SURFACE RIDGE CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN GEORGIA. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING TO
OUR SOUTH WILL ALSO AMPLIFY. THE BIG QUESTION WILL BE IF WE WILL SEE
ANY WIDESPREAD SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. THE NEGATIVELY
TILTED TROUGH CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER THE FOUR CORNERS STATES WILL
HELP TO TRIGGER WIDESPREAD STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS.

ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE FOCUSED ALONG A NORTHWARD
MOVING WARM FRONT ACROSS THE ARKLATEX. A COMPLEX OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS THAT`S ALREADY DEVELOPING ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN ARKANSAS IS
FORECAST TO EXPAND IN COVERAGE AND PUSH EASTWARD THROUGHOUT THE DAY.
HIGH-RES GUIDANCE IS ADVERTISING THAT AN MCS WILL PUSH ACROSS
NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI THIS AFTERNOON, AND POSSIBLY MOVE INTO
NORTHWEST ALABAMA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EARLY EVENING
HOURS. OF COURSE THE MCS WOULD BE GREATLY WEAKENED BY THE TIME IT
REACHED ALABAMA, BUT WOULD CERTAINLY THROW A WRENCH INTO THE POP
FORECAST. FOR NOW, SINCE THE HIGH-RES GUIDANCE HAS CONTINUED TO GAIN
TRACTION ON THE MCS SOLUTION, HAVE INCREASED TO HIGH CHANCE POPS
ACROSS THE NORTHWEST COUNTIES LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THE EXTENT OF
CHANCE POPS THEN INCREASES SOUTH AND EASTWARD INTO THE EARLY EVENING
HOURS DUE TO THE CHANCE OF ANYTHING LEFT OVER FROM THE MCS PUSHING
TOWARD THE I-65 CORRIDOR. IT`S CERTAINLY NOT A HIGH CONFIDENCE
FORECAST, AND WILL INVOLVE WATCHING CONVECTIVE TRENDS THROUGH THE
DAY. OTHERWISE, AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR STORM CAN`T BE RULED OUT
ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN AND SOUTHERN COUNTIES DURING THE HEATING OF THE
DAY, WHERE THE GREATEST MOISTURE AXIS WILL EXIST.

ANY LEFTOVER DRY AIR ACROSS OUR EASTERN AND NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES
WILL BE ERODED OVERNIGHT TONIGHT, AS SOUTHERLY SURFACE FLOW TAKES
BACK OVER. AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR STORM CAN`T BE RULED OUT ACROSS OUR
NORTHWEST COUNTIES WHERE THE MOST UPPER LEVEL ENERGY WILL BE
PRESENT. ALSO, THE LOW LEVEL 925MB JET WILL BE STRONGEST OFF TO OUR
NORTHWEST. OTHERWISE, IT WILL BE DOWNRIGHT MUGGY OUTSIDE OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT AS DEWPOINTS INCREASE INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S, ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE STATE. COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND NORTHWEST
COUNTIES THROUGH DAYBREAK ON SATURDAY.

56/GDG

.LONG TERM...
SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

A CLOSED LOW WITHIN THE LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER MUCH OF THE WESTERN
CONUS WILL ROTATE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS SATURDAY TOWARD THE
MIDWEST. THIS WILL PUSH THE MID LEVEL RIDGE AXIS TO OUR EAST
LEAVING CENTRAL ALABAMA UNDER SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. AN ENHANCED LLJ
LIFTS FROM OUR WEST TO NORTH DURING THE DAY...AND BETTER UPPER
LEVEL JET STRUCTURES ARE WELL TO OUR WEST. WITH A WARM FRONT TO
OUR NORTH...THE AREA WILL BE WARM AND UNSTABLE DURING THE
AFTERNOON...BUT WITHOUT AN ORGANIZED FORCING MECHANISM TO SPUR
CONVECTION FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. OUTSIDE OF THE NORTHWESTERN
COUNTIES...WHICH WILL BE CLOSER TO BETTER FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH
THE UPPER LOW...SCATTERED DIURNALLY DRIVEN ACTIVITY WILL BE
POSSIBLE. BELIEVE MOST OF THE AREA WILL BE DRY UNTIL SATURDAY
EVENING WHEN A STRONGER SHORTWAVE ROTATING THROUGH THE TROUGH
CROSSES THE AREA.

SATURDAY NIGHT...THE SURFACE LOW WILL BE TO OUR NORTHWEST MOVING
TOWARD THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY WITH A FRONT STRETCHING SOUTHWARD
ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER BY SUNRISE. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE AS THE ABOVE MENTIONED SHORTWAVE
CROSSES THE AREA AND THE FRONT PUSHES EASTWARD. THIS TREND
CONTINUES SUNDAY DUE TO THE SLOW MOVING NATURE OF THE FRONT. AT
SOME POINT...EXPECT THE BETTER FORCING TO OUT PACE THE FRONT AND
RAIN COVERAGE WILL DECREASE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA. DIFFICULT
TO PINPOINT WHEN THAT WILL HAPPEN AT THIS POINT...AS MODEL
SOLUTIONS CONTINUE TO DIFFER ON THE PROGRESSION OF BOTH THE FRONT
AND UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT BEYOND EARLY SUNDAY. IF THE ECMWF
VERIFIES...THE FRONT WILL STALL...WAITING FOR THE NEXT SHORTWAVE
TO MOVE OUT OF THE PLAINS AND WIDESPREAD RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE
MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

THE SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK LOOKS DRIER...WITH NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
AND HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATING THE EASTERN CONUS FOR SEVERAL DAYS.

14

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF DISCUSSION.

CONVECTION DONE FOR TONIGHT FOR THIN LINE EARLIER ACROSS I-85
CORRIDOR OF CENTRAL ALABAMA. SOME MVFR VSBYS EXPECTED ACROSS THE
AREA AS SKIES CLEAR WITH MOISTURE LOW LEVELS. TOI WILL BE THE
LOWEST TONIGHT WHERE SOME IFR/LIFR CIGS AND LOW VSBYS ALREADY
THREATENING AND WILL LIKELY LAST INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.
DO NOT HAVE ANY PRECIP IN TAFS AT THIS TIME AS WILL LIKELY HOLD
OFF TILL AFTER THE TAF FORECAST PERIOD.

08


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE POSSIBLE THE NEXT TWO
DAYS...BEFORE MORE WIDESPREAD RAINFALL IS EXPECTED SUNDAY. DEPENDING
ON HOW QUICKLY A FRONT CLEARS THE AREA...RAIN CHANCES COULD LINGER
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS AT THIS TIME.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     86  61  82  64  78 /  10  20  40  60  70
ANNISTON    86  62  83  65  78 /  10  20  30  50  70
BIRMINGHAM  86  65  84  67  79 /  10  20  30  50  70
TUSCALOOSA  86  65  85  66  81 /  20  20  20  50  70
CALERA      85  65  84  66  79 /  10  10  20  50  70
AUBURN      86  65  84  66  79 /  10  10  20  30  50
MONTGOMERY  89  66  87  68  82 /  20  10  20  30  50
TROY        88  64  88  67  82 /  10  10  20  20  40

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.