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Area Forecast Discussion

592
FXUS64 KBMX 251135
AFDBMX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
635 AM CDT SUN SEP 25 2016

.UPDATE...
For 12Z Aviation.

&&

.SHORT TERM...

Today and Tonight.

Record high temperatures were set across the area on Saturday as a
dome of hot and dry air holds over the central Gulf Coast region.
Without a change in the air mass, this type of pattern feeds off
itself.  Drier soil conditions create warmer daytime temperatures
and warmer daytime temperatures causes higher evapotranspiration.
1000-850mb thickness values this afternoon are forecast to be near
those on Saturday, and will forecast highs today based on highs on
Saturday. Isolated afternoon thunderstorms will develop across south
Alabama where slightly deeper moisture will be present.

58/rose

.LONG TERM...

Monday through Sunday.

Cold front extending from an upper low in the Great Lakes region moves
through Central Alabama on Monday bringing the chance for
showers/storms. Models show the front slowing down slightly from
previous runs, moving through later Monday morning into Tuesday.
Moisture return is limited, so not expecting widespread rainfall,
thus have kept chance PoPs in the forecast beginning Monday
morning for areas north of I-20, spreading southeastward with the
front through the afternoon hours. By late Monday night into
Tuesday morning, the front is along and south of the I-85 corridor
before moving south of the area completely by late Tuesday
morning/early afternoon. With more pre-frontal heating possible on
Monday, NAM and GFS soundings are hinting at modest instability
just along and ahead of the front with decent low level lapse
rates, mainly south of I-20. With the limited moisture and weak
bulk shear, not expecting any severe storms, but what isolated
showers/storms that do form could have strong gusty winds
associated with them.

After the front passes on Tuesday, ridging builds back into area
bringing drier weather to Central Alabama. Temperatures expected
to be near or slightly below average for this time of year. By
late Wednesday into Thursday, the models diverge on the
propagation of the previously mentioned upper low in the Great
Lakes region. The GFS and Canadian have it moving down into
Virgina before progressing up the East Coast. The ECMWF has the
low digging southward into the southern Appalachians, which could
lead to another round of cooler temperatures towards the end of
the week. With more agreement between the GFS and Canadian, have
opted to lean more towards that solution at this time and keep
temperatures closer to seasonal averages for the weekend.

25/Owen


&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF Discussion.

VFR conds thru the period. Isold TS possible across se Alabama and
included VCTS at KTOI during the afternoon hours. Winds light and
vrbl.

58/rose

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Slight chance of isolated showers/storms on Sunday. A front with
better rain chances will move through on Monday into Tuesday
morning. Beginning Tuesday afternoon, drier weather returns for
the remainder of the week. No fire weather concerns are
anticipated.

25/Owen

&&

.CLIMATE...

Record Highs for Sunday September 25th:

Birmingham  97   1921
Tuscaloosa  97   1961
Anniston    96   1931
Montgomery  97   2010

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden     96  65  88  60  80 /  10  10  40  30  10
Anniston    97  67  89  63  80 /  10  10  40  30  10
Birmingham  98  72  90  63  81 /  10  10  40  30  10
Tuscaloosa  98  69  92  65  82 /  10  10  40  20  10
Calera      97  70  91  65  82 /  10  10  40  30  10
Auburn      93  69  89  68  84 /  10  10  30  40  30
Montgomery  98  71  92  69  87 /  20  10  30  30  20
Troy        94  68  92  68  85 /  20  10  30  30  30

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$



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