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Area Forecast Discussion

705
FXUS64 KBMX 212000
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
300 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

.DISCUSSION...

COOLER AND DRIER AIR IS MOVING INTO CENTRAL ALABAMA GIVING
THE FORECAST AREA A BRIEF BREAK FROM THE HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS
TYPICAL OF THE MONTH OF MAY. TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA AT 3PM
ARE CURRENTLY IN THE LOW 60S TO LOW 80S ABOUT 10 TO 20 DEGREES
COOLER THAN YESTERDAY AT THIS TIME. CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
AND RAP UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATES RATHER ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE
SOUTHEASTERN STATES WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE
OHIO RIVER VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES REGION. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS
BEGINNING TO TAKE SHAPE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND ROCKY
MOUNTAINS. AT THE SURFACE...THE COLD FRONT IS NOW TO THE SOUTH OF
THE AREA WITH COOLER AND DRIER AIR MOVING INTO THE FORECAST AREA.
A SURFACE HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND WILL SHIFT
TO THE EAST OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. FOR TONIGHT...EXPECT THE
SURFACE HIGH WILL BE LOCATED JUST TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE AREA
WITH NORTHERLY FLOW AT THE SURFACE. SOME OF THE COLDER GUIDANCE
SUGGEST WIDESPREAD 40S ACROSS THE NORTHERN 2/3RD`S OF THE FORECAST
AREA BUT EXPECT CLOUD COVER EARLY IN THE EVENING AND SURFACE WINDS
OF AROUND 5 KTS WILL PREVENT THESE TEMPERATURES FROM BEING
REALIZED. EXPECT 40S WILL BE LIMITED TO THE NORTHERN ROW OF
COUNTIES OR SO WITH SOME OF THE COOLER SHELTERED LOCATIONS ACROSS
THE NORTHEAST POSSIBLY DROPPING INTO THE MID 40S. THERE IS A
PRETTY LARGE SPREAD IN GUIDANCE FOR LOWS TONIGHT AND IT WILL BE
HIGHLY DEPENDENT UPON CLOUD COVER AND WINDS DURING THE OVERNIGHT
PERIOD.

EXPECT ANOTHER PLEASANT MAY DAY ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA ON FRIDAY
WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 40S AND 50S AND HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO LOW
80S. EXPECT MORE SUNSHINE TOMORROW AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
APPROACHES THE AREA. THE COLD FRONT SHOULD STALL ALONG THE GULF
COAST DURING THIS TIME KEEPING THE MOIST AIR CLOSER TO THE COAST BUT
AS THE STORY GOES IT IS MAY IN CENTRAL ALABAMA AND THE DRIER AIR
WILL NOT LAST FOR LONG.

ON SUNDAY...THE SURFACE HIGH RELOCATES TO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WITH
SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNING TO THE AREA. DEWPOINTS AND PW VALUES WILL
BEGIN TO CREEP BACK UP WITH DEWPOINTS RISING TO THE MID 60S.
ALOFT...HEIGHTS WILL BE INCREASING AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AMPLIFIES
ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA WHILE FURTHER TO THE WEST A TROUGH DIGS
IN ACROSS THE PLAINS. THESE UPPER LEVEL FEATURES WILL BECOME SEMI-
PERMANENT FOR THE UPCOMING WEEK PUTTING THE FORECAST AREA IN
CONTINUED SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT THROUGHOUT MUCH OF
THE UPCOMING WEEK. EXPECT PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE LIMITED TO
ALONG WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT WITH
CHANCES BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD MEMORIAL DAY INTO THE UPCOMING
WEEK. HAVE MENTIONED AROUND 30-50% CHANCE EACH AFTERNOON WITH PW
VALUES OVER THE 90TH PERCENTILE FOR MID TO LATE MAY.

05/MA

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

STRATOCUMULUS WILL AFFECT PLENTY OF THE TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON.
WILL INCREASE THE TIME THESE CLOUDS WILL AFFECT THE AREA. IT
APPEARS THAT MGM/TOI WILL REMAIN ON THE FRINGES OF THE CLOUDS BUT
ALSO SHOULD BE JUST INTO VFR. THE REMAINING NORTHERN TERMINALS
WILL HAVE BOUTS IF MVFR CLOUDINESS INTO THE EVENING HOURS...WITH
SOME IMPROVEMENT POSSIBLE LATER TONIGHT.

OVERALL...ADDED SEVERAL HOURS ONTO THE MVFR CLOUDS AND KEPT THE
NORTHERLY WINDS GUSTS IN THE 18 TO 23 KT RANGE.

75


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     48  77  53  83  61 /   0   0   0   0  10
ANNISTON    51  78  55  84  63 /   0   0   0   0  10
BIRMINGHAM  51  77  57  85  66 /   0   0   0   0  10
TUSCALOOSA  51  79  58  86  65 /   0   0   0   0  10
CALERA      51  78  57  84  65 /   0   0   0   0  10
AUBURN      55  79  59  83  64 /   0   0   0   0  10
MONTGOMERY  57  81  60  88  66 /   0   0   0   0  10
TROY        57  82  59  87  65 /  10   0   0   0  10

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$



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