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Area Forecast Discussion

818
FXUS64 KBMX 271600
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1100 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.UPDATE...
MORNING UPDATE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

CLOUDY IN THE SOUTH AND SUNNY IN THE NORTH AS THE COLD FRONT
CONTINUES TO PUSH SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA. MEANWHILE A FAIRLY
PROGRESSIVE SHORTWAVE WILL SLIDE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THIS WILL BE A VERY FAST MOVING SYSTEM AND WILL CLEAR THE
AREA BY MIDNIGHT. ANY RAIN CHANCE WILL BE IN THE NORTH AND SHOULD
BE DONE AROUND SUNSET. CLOUDS WILL CLEAR OUT IN THE NORTHEAST AND
MAY ALLOW THE NORTHEAST TO DROP TO FREEZING IF NOT JUST BELOW BY
SUNRISE SATURDAY. A SECONDARY SHORTWAVE SLIDE THROUGH SATURDAY AS
WELL AND WILL BRING IN ANOTHER SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND EARLY SATURDAY EVENING. THE COLDER AIRMASS WILL BE
SUNDAY MORNING...BUT WILL MAINLY IMPACT THE NORTH AND EAST.

16

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF DISCUSSION.

THE COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED SOUTH OF ALL TAF SITES THIS MORNING.
WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS CURRENTLY PREVAIL AT ALL SITES WITH LOCALIZED
POCKETS OF IFR CIGS. LOOK FOR CIGS TO BEGIN TO LIFT BY 15Z WITH VFR
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA BY 18Z AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. AN APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH COULD
BRING A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS INTO THE NORTHWEST SECTIONS OF CENTRAL
ALABAMA THIS AFTERNOON BUT THE CHANCE OF ONE OCCURRING AT TCL OR BHM
IS VERY LOW AND WILL NOT MENTION IN TAF. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
REACH 18 TO 20 KNOTS AT TIMES TODAY BUT WILL DROP TO BELOW 10 KNOTS
AFTER 00Z.

41

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 518 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015/

THE SURFACE COLD FRONT WAS MOVING SOUTHWARD ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA
WHERE IT JUST PASSED TROY AND OPELIKA AT THIS WRITING. A FEW
LINGERING SHOWERS STRETCHED NORTHWARD SOME 150 MILES BEHIND THE
FRONT...BUT WERE DECREASING IN COVERAGE THE PAST FEW HOURS. THE
LATEST WATER VAPOR MAGERY HAS THE UPPER TROUGH SWINGING THIS WAY
WITH ANOTHER IMPULSE MOVING INTO THE NORTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON. A FEW
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS FEATURE AND MENTION LIGHT RAIN.

WENT AHEAD AND ISSUED A FREEZE WARNING AND FREEZE WATCH FOR PARTS OF
NORTH CENTRAL ALABAMA THE NEXT FEW MORNINGS. THE FREEZING CONDITIONS
WILL BE FAIRLY SHORT-LIVED...ONLY A FEW HOURS...AND THE TEMEPRATURES
WILL NOT BE EXTREME...ONLY 29 TO 32 DEGREES.

SEVERAL IMPULSES RIDE THROUGH THE UPEPR FLOW THIS WEEK. THIS WILL
PUSH A FEW FRONTS CLOSE TO THE REGION BUT IT APPEARS THAT THESE
FRONTS WILL NOT BLAST THROUGH HERE. THEY WILL EITHER HANG UP OR
DISSIPATE. AT ANY RATE...THIS WILL PROVIDE CENTRAL ALABAMA WITH
SEVERAL DAYS OF UNSETTLED WEATHER. TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY WARM
THROUGH THE WEEK WITH A TREND TOWARD ZONAL FLOW. THE MODELS ARE IN
FAIR AGREEMENT THROUGH THE TIME FRAME WITH THE ENSEMBLES NOT QUICK
AS AMPLIFIED WITH ANY FEATURE.

75

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     54  31  51  29  58 /  10  10  10  10   0
ANNISTON    54  31  51  29  59 /  10  10  10  10   0
BIRMINGHAM  54  34  49  33  62 /  10  10  20  10   0
TUSCALOOSA  57  36  51  36  65 /  20  10  20  10   0
CALERA      56  35  51  36  62 /  10  10  10  10   0
AUBURN      58  37  56  33  62 /  20  10  10  10   0
MONTGOMERY  59  37  59  37  67 /  20   0  10  10   0
TROY        60  36  58  35  66 /  20   0  10  10   0

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR
BLOUNT-CALHOUN-CHAMBERS-CHEROKEE-CLAY-CLEBURNE-ETOWAH-MARION-
RANDOLPH-ST. CLAIR-TALLADEGA-WALKER-WINSTON.

FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 9 AM CDT SATURDAY FOR BLOUNT-CALHOUN-
CHEROKEE-CLAY-CLEBURNE-ETOWAH-RANDOLPH-ST. CLAIR-TALLADEGA-
WINSTON.

&&

$$



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