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Area Forecast Discussion

954
FXUS64 KBMX 302359
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
659 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 00Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

AFTER A VERY EVENTFUL EARLY MORNING SHIFT...THINGS HAVE PRETTY MUCH
STABILIZED OVER THE AREA. HAVE REDUCED THE THREAT IN THE HWO TO JUST
THE SOUTHEAST OR SOUTH OF I-85 AS THE BEST SEVERE CHANCES ARE NOW
WELL TO THE EAST AND SOUTH OF THE AREA. WILL LIKELY REMOVE THE
SEVERE WORDING BY 4 PM IF THINGS CONTINUE THE OVERALL TREND. AREAS
IN THE SOUTH ARE SEEING SOME LIGHT RAIN CAUSING TEMPERATURES TO STAY
IN THE 70S ACROSS HERE. THERE IS QUITE A TEMPERATURE GRADIENT FROM
CALERA TO EUFAULA (76 TO 91).

AS WE MOVE INTO TONIGHT THE HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES WILL BE IN THE
FIRST FEW HOURS AFTER 7 PM. AFTER THAT THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SEEING SHOWERS AND STORMS. WILL NEED TO MONITOR THE
ACTIVITY OVERNIGHT AS MORE SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO FIRE
UP TO OUR NORTHWEST AND BRING YET ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
INTO THE NORTHEAST FOR WEDNESDAY. AS DISCUSSED BEFORE THIS
NORTHWEST FLOW IS VERY TROUBLING WITH MODEL SOLUTIONS
AND TIMING...SO TIMING FOR WEDNESDAY WILL BE UP IN THE AIR.
THINKING THAT THERE IS A PRETTY GOOD CHANCE IN THE NORTH ONCE
AGAIN TOMORROW FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS...HOWEVER THE ENVIRONMENT
WAS WORKED OVER TODAY SO WILL THERE BE ENOUGH THERE TO TRULY TAP
INTO TOMORROW IS A BIG QUESTION.

AS WE MOVE INTO THURSDAY ANOTHER DISTURBANCE WILL ROLL THROUGH THE
AREA. TWO DAYS AGO MODELS WERE INDICATING THURSDAY MORNING AS THE
BEST CHANCES...WHEREAS THE MODELS NOW GOING THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
AGAIN NORTHWEST FLOW CAUSES TONS OF TROUBLE FOR A FORECAST. AS FAR
AS SEVERE POTENTIAL...WE ARE UNDER A MARGINAL RISK FOR STRONG
STORMS...IF THE TIMING IS LATER INTO THE DAY THURSDAY THERE SURE
IS A POTENTIAL FOR STRONGER IF NOT SEVERE STORMS. FOR NOW
CONFIDENCE IN ANY WIDESPREAD SEVERE STORMS IS TOO LOW TO MENTION
WITH UNORGANIZED CONVECTION.

SO WHAT ABOUT THE 4TH OF JULY WEEKEND. AS FOR FRIDAY NIGHT...RAIN
CHANCES WILL BE DWINDLING AFTER THE SUN SETS...BUT THERE IS A
CHANCE FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS AFTER SUNSET. WITH THE NATURE
OF THE SUMMER ACTIVITY WILL REALLY NEED TO LOOK AT RADAR TO SEE IF
A CERTAIN LOCATION WILL BE IMPACTED OR NOT. LOOKS LIKE THE
HIGHEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTH
DURING THE DAY SATURDAY. WILL IT BE A WASHOUT...LIKELY NOT...BUT
THERE WILL BE ACTIVITY POSSIBLE ACROSS THE AREA. AS WE WORK INTO
THE EVENING...ONCE AGAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
SCATTERED AND CONTINUE TO DWINDLE AS THE NIGHT CONTINUES. SO YOU
MAY GET TO ENJOY MOTHER NATURES FIREWORKS FOLLOWED BY MAN MADE
FIREWORKS OR VICE VERSA...SO HAVE PLANS IF YOU WILL BE OUTSIDE.
HIGHER CHANCE SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST
OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AS WE REMAIN IN A WETTER THAN NORMAL
PATTERN THROUGH THE FIRST OF NEXT WEEK.

16


&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION.

WITH THE RECENT RAINFALL SOME MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY WILL BE
POSSIBLE...ALTHOUGH MORE PATCHY THAN WIDESPREAD. AN ISOLATED
SHOWER CANNOT BE RULED OUT THIS EVENING BUT PROBABILITY IS TOO LOW
TO INCLUDE. WINDS WILL BE FROM THE SOUTHWEST BETWEEN 3 AND 8 KTS
OVERNIGHT. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS WILL AGAIN BE
POSSIBLE TOMORROW WITH THE BEST CHANCES IN THE AFTERNOON.

88

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH
THE REST OF THE WEEK. NO FIRE CONCERNS THROUGH THE WEEK.

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$



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