National Weather Service Weather Forecast Office

Area Forecast Discussion

562
FXUS64 KBMX 210001 AAA
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
701 PM CDT MON MAY 20 2013

.UPDATE...
FOR AVIATION.

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION.

VFR CONDITIONS AT PRESENT. CONVECTION ON RADAR TO THE SOUTH AND
EAST OF CENTRAL ALABAMA TAPERING OFF LOOKING VERY SUMMER-LIKE...
SO NO WORRIES THERE. HOWEVER...BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE IS EXPECTED
TO INCREASE OVERNIGHT WITH LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW JUST ALOFT ABOVE
THE SURFACE. FAIRLY CONFIDENT OF MVFR VISIBILITIES BUT NOT AS MUCH
ON THE POSSIBILITY OF IFR VISIBILITIES...SO ONLY A FEW TEMPOS FOR
NOW. WINDS ALOFT NEAR SUNRISE MAY BE TOO MUCH FOR THE LOWER RANGE.
ALL LOCALES SHOULD GO BACK TO VFR BY 14/15Z WITH MIXING EXPECTED.

08

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 254 PM CDT MON MAY 20 2013/

DISCUSSION...

NOT MUCH OF A CHANGE IN THE OVERALL FORECAST FROM THE OVERNIGHT
ISSUANCE AS MODELS ARE FAIRLY PERSISTENT WITH THE OVERALL PATTERN.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN PLACE THROUGH TUESDAY. THERE ARE A FEW
SHOWERS DEVELOPING IN THE FAR SOUTHEAST AS OF 2 PM AND WILL CONTINUE
IN THIS AREA FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE GENERALLY SOUTH OF I-85/US 80 THROUGH
9 PM. OVERNIGHT...CLOUDS CLEAR AND PATCHY FOG WILL LIKELY DEVELOP.
CONFIDENCE IS GROWING AS AFTERNOON MIXING IS MINIMAL AND LOWS ARE
FORECAST TO BE AT OR BELOW AFTERNOON MIXED DEW POINTS. ANOTHER
CONCERN OVERNIGHT WILL BE A DECK OF STRATUS THAT MAY DEVELOP IN
SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI...SOUTHERN ALABAMA AND SLIDE NORTHWARD IN
SOUTHWESTERN SECTIONS OF THE AREA. FOR NOW WENT WITH PATCHY FOG AND
INCREASED CLOUDS FROM SOUTH TO NORTH AFTER 4 AM.

BY TUESDAY NIGHT THE SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO APPROACH
THE AREA. THINK THAT MOST OF THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL
WEDNESDAY...BUT DID CONTINUE WITH THE SLIGHT CHANCE ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST. THE COLD FRONT WILL THEN ENTER THE AREA WEDNESDAY. WENT
AHEAD AND INCREASED TO LIKELY ACROSS THE NORTH AND WEST AS THE BEST
CHANCES WILL BE THERE. ISSUE WILL BE THAT THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
BE DIMINISHING AS IT MOVES INTO THE AREA. GOOD NEWS IN REGARD TO
SEVERE POTENTIAL AS IT WILL BE LIMITED...BUT BAD NEWS IN REGARDS TO
INCREASED COMPLEXITY WITH THE FORECAST. TRIED TO STICK WITH A MORE
CONCEPTUAL ASPECT WITH THE FORECAST AND TRIED TO PICK THE OPPORTUNE
TIME FRAME FOR THE AREAS WITH THE FRONT. COLD FRONT SLOWLY WORKS
THROUGH AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN IN THE FORECAST THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK INTO THE AREA ON FRIDAY AND WILL LIKELY
REMAIN THROUGH SUNDAY...WITH THE NEXT FRONT EXPECTED BY EARLY NEXT
WEEK. OVERALL TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE NEXT TWO DAYS THEN
NEAR NORMAL FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD.

16

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     64  89  66  82  66 /  10  10  10  60  40
ANNISTON    66  88  67  84  65 /  10  10  10  60  50
BIRMINGHAM  68  90  68  83  66 /  10  10  10  60  40
TUSCALOOSA  65  91  67  83  65 /  10  10  20  60  30
CALERA      67  90  66  84  66 /  10  10  10  60  40
AUBURN      66  89  67  85  65 /  10  10  10  40  40
MONTGOMERY  66  92  67  88  67 /  10  10  10  40  50
TROY        64  91  67  89  67 /  30  10  10  30  40

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

08/16