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Area Forecast Discussion

027
FXUS64 KBMX 282106
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
406 PM CDT THU AUG 28 2014

.DISCUSSION...

MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ARE UPON CENTRAL ALABAMA WITH ONE MORE AFTERNOON
OF DRY DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S. WE`LL START TO SEE THOSE MOISTURE
LEVELS CREEPING BACK UP DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY AS SOUTHERLY
SURFACE FLOW RETURNS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL
TRANSITION EASTWARD AND BUILD OVER FLORIDA, SOUTHEAST GEORGIA, AND
SOUTH CAROLINA. THE LOCATION OF THE UPPER RIDGE WILL DICTATE THE
WEATHER THIS WEEKEND...AS NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE STILL
EXPECTED TO SPREAD NORTHWARD. A COMBINATION OF A DIGGING UPPER
TROUGH IN THE PLAINS AND UPPER SHORTWAVE MOVING NORTHWARD OUT OF THE
WESTERN GULF WILL CONTRIBUTE TO WIDESPREAD SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT.

THE LATEST SUITE OF GUIDANCE IS STILL IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT DEEP
MOISTURE WILL BE ALLOWED TO SURGE NORTHWARD DURING THE DAY ON
SATURDAY WITH PWATS OF 2.1 TO 2.2 INCHES. THE BIG FACTOR THAT WILL
DETERMINE IF AN AXIS OF HIGHER RAINFALL TOTALS WILL PUSH INTO
CENTRAL ALABAMA WILL BE THE STRENGTH OF THE UPPER RIDGE TO OUR
EAST. IF THE RIDGE IS ALLOWED TO BUILD TO THE WEST AND HEIGHTS
INCREASE JUST ENOUGH...IT COULD SUPPRESS SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT AND DECREASE RAINFALL AMOUNTS LESS THAN WHAT WE ARE
CURRENTLY FORECASTING. AT THIS TIME...THE HEAVIEST RAIN AXIS THAT
WAS BEING ADVERTISED YESTERDAY AFTERNOON HAS NOW MOVED WESTWARD
ACROSS MUCH OF MISSISSIPPI. HOWEVER...THAT DOESN`T MEAN THAT THE
CHANCE OF WIDESPREAD CONVECTION HAS GONE AWAY ACROSS CENTRAL
ALABAMA SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THE CONVECTION COULD BE MORE CELLULAR
ESPECIALLY THE FARTHER EAST YOU GO...WITH RAINFALL AMOUNTS MORE
SPORADIC IN NATURE. OF COURSE...WITH THE PWATS IN THE 99TH
PERCENTILE WE`LL SEE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WITHIN THE STORMS THAT
DEVELOP. SOME RAINFALL WOULD BE HELPFUL TO REDUCE THE CURRENT
DROUGHT CONDITIONS THAT HAVE RECENTLY SET UP.

SO...FOR THE FORECAST ON SATURDAY HAVE KEPT LIKELY POPS AREAWIDE.
THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAINFALL AVERAGES OVER THE WEEKEND OF AROUND
ONE INCH WILL BE ACROSS THE WESTERN AND NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES.
LESSER AMOUNTS ARE LIKELY THE FARTHER EAST YOU GO...BUT ONCE AGAIN
LOCALLY HEAVIER AMOUNTS WILL OCCUR WITHIN THE VERY EFFICIENT
RAINFALL PRODUCING STORMS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE LOWER WITH ALL THE
CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION EXPECTED WEST AND NORTHWEST...WHILE TEMPS
NEAR OR JUST ABOVE 90 ARE ANTICIPATED EAST AND SOUTHEAST.
ADDITIONAL UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND
MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS MISSISSIPPI AND WESTERN TENNESSEE SATURDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. THIS WILL RESULT IN THE HIGHEST RAIN
CHANCES REMAINING ACROSS THE NORTHWEST COUNTIES THROUGH THE DAY ON
SUNDAY WITH LESSER CHANCES IN THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST CLOSER TO THE
CENTER OF THE UPPER RIDGE.

THE RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO FLATTEN OUT ACROSS ALL OF THE GULF STATES
BY MONDAY WITH TEMPERATURES GOING UP AND RAIN CHANCES GOING DOWN IN
RESPONSE. LOW TO MID 90S WILL BE PREVALENT WITH ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED CONVECTION DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS EACH DAY. THE UPPER
RIDGE DOESN`T APPEAR TO BE GOING ANYWHERE NEXT WEEK...AND NO BIG
WEATHER IMPACTS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD.

56/GDG

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE TAF CYCLE.
WINDS WILL TAKE ON A SOUTHERLY COMPONENT TODAY AND FRIDAY WITH HIGHS
CLOUDS STREAMING IN ACROSS THE TAF SITES.

16

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     62  94  70  88  70 /   0  10  20  60  50
ANNISTON    64  93  71  90  71 /   0  10  20  60  50
BIRMINGHAM  68  94  73  86  72 /   0  10  20  60  50
TUSCALOOSA  67  95  74  86  73 /   0  10  30  70  50
CALERA      68  94  73  87  72 /   0  10  20  60  50
AUBURN      67  94  72  89  71 /   0  10  20  60  40
MONTGOMERY  69  95  73  93  73 /   0  10  20  60  40
TROY        66  94  72  91  72 /   0  20  20  60  40

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$





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