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Area Forecast Discussion

168
FXUS64 KBMX 271320
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
720 AM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 12Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

1038 MB HIGH CENTERED OVER WESTERN IOWA WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA EARLY THIS MORNING WITH NORTHERLY
FLOW AND TIGHTER BUT NOT OUTRAGEOUS SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENTS.
NORTHERLY WINDS WILL BE PRESENT THIS MORNING BUT DON`T EXPECT THEM
TO BE TOO ROBUST AS BOUNDARY WAS ON THE WEAK SIDE AND RIDGE WILL
BE SLIDING CLOSER TOWARD INDIANA AND MORE WIDESPREAD WITH
GRADIENTS WEAKENING TODAY. SOME MORNING LOW CLOUDS WILL BE PRESENT
BUT SHOULD DECREASE SOME DURING THE DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL STILL
BE CHILLY ACROSS THE NORTH BUT SHOULD SEE A TEMPERATURE GRADIENT
FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST WITH THE GREATER SUNSHINE AVAILABLE
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST WHERE WE DON`T HAVE THE MORNING STRATUS.
SHOULD FEEL ON COOL SIDE ANYWAY WITH THE WINDS.

ON SATURDAY...SHOULD SEE A CHILLY START WITH EFFECTS OF THE RIDGE.
ALTHOUGH UPPER FLOW IS SOMEWHAT FLAT...MAY STILL SEE WEAK
DISTURBANCES COMMENCE. MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL HELP WITH CLOUD
COVER OVERNIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY BUT TEMPERATURES
SHOULD NOT BE AS COLD DURING THE DAY AS THE SURFACE RIDGE SHIFTS
FURTHER ACROSS THE U.S. TO THE EAST OVER OHIO/PENNSYLVANIA ALLOWING
FOR THE LOW LEVEL WINDS TO TURN FROM NORTHERLY TO EASTERLY DURING
THE DAY WITH THE RIDGE SLIDING TO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST BY
SATURDAY NIGHT WITH LITTLE DECREASE IN STRENGTH. GRADIENTS WILL
PICK UP SOME WITH THE EASTERLY FLOW BUT WITH POSSIBLE WEDGING
COULD KEEP TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE NORTHEAST FROM RESPONDING BACK
AS QUICKLY OVER THE WEEKEND. ONLY LOW RAIN CHANCES RETURN BY EARLY
SUNDAY THOUGH AS OVERALL MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED AS WELL
INITIALLY.

ON SUNDAY...A WEAK FRONT SAGS DOWN INTO THE PLAINS AND MID
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY BUT LACKS THE UPPER SUPPORT TO PUSH
THROUGH ALABAMA ON MONDAY AND IS STILL EXPECTED TO STALL ACROSS
THE NORTHWEST FRINGES OF THE STATE BEFORE PUSHING BACK TO THE
NORTH AND TO THE EAST ACROSS THE U.S. OVERALL MOISTURE WILL
CONTINUE TO INCREASE WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES AND CHANCES FOR A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS RETURNING FOR THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK.

THE NEXT SYSTEM BEHIND THE MONDAY FRONT IS LAGGING WITH A BROAD
TROUGH AND A DECENT UPPER RIDGE OVER THE GULF TO HELP SLOW IT
DOWN WITH A WEST SOUTHWEST UPPER FLOW ACROSS ALABAMA. THE MAIN
SYSTEM WILL LIKELY HOLD OFF UNTIL WEDNESDAY. WHILE SHORTWAVES
GIVE RAINFALL OPPORTUNITIES AHEAD OF THE FRONT ON TUESDAY WE LACK
A GOOD FOCUS WITH THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH OUT ACROSS THE ROCKIES.
THERE CONTINUES TO BE TIMING/STRENGTH ISSUES WITH THE FRONT FOR
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. ALSO...WITH MAIN UPPER TROUGH VERY
POSITIVELY TILTED AND SOMEWHAT FLAT...NOT OVERLY EXCITED FOR
SEVERE AT THIS TIME WITH FRONT ARRIVAL. LEAVING GENERAL
THUNDERSTORMS FOR NOW FOR MID WEEK...WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES AND
DRYING CONDITIONS BY LATE THURSDAY INTO NEXT FRIDAY TO ROUND OUT
THE END OF OUR FORECAST.

08/MK


&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF DISCUSSION.

MVFR CIGS WILL BE THE MAIN IMPACT FOR NORTHERN TERMINALS THIS
MORNING...WITH CIGS BETWEEN 1500 AND 2000 FT. KMGM COULD OBSERVE
SOME OF THESE CIGS FROM 13 TO 15Z THIS MORNING. EVENTUALLY THE
CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO RISE AND MIX OUT BY THIS AFTERNOON.
OTHERWISE...NORTHERLY SURFACE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AROUND
10 TO 15 KNOTS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON TODAY. VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.

56/GDG

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     39  24  49  36  50 /   0  10  10  10  40
ANNISTON    41  27  51  36  51 /   0  10  10  10  40
BIRMINGHAM  40  27  52  40  54 /   0  10  10  20  40
TUSCALOOSA  42  27  56  40  57 /   0  10  10  20  40
CALERA      43  30  55  41  55 /   0  10  10  20  40
AUBURN      49  32  53  39  52 /   0   0  10  20  40
MONTGOMERY  50  32  57  43  57 /   0   0  10  20  40
TROY        52  33  56  42  57 /   0   0  10  20  40

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$








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