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Area Forecast Discussion

830
FXUS64 KBMX 251158
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
655 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

.UPDATE... AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&


.DISCUSSION...

SHORT DISCUSSION THIS MORNING TO ONLY HANDLE THE SHORT TERM.
LINE OF CONVECTION MOVING INTO WESTERN ALABAMA IS MOVING INTO A
SLIGHTLY MORE STABLE AIRMASS. DEWPOINTS IN WESTERN ALABAMA NEAR
THE STATE LINE JUST NOW REACHING THE LOWER 60S WITH A DROP OFF
INTO THE MID 50S AT TCL. SURFACE BASED CAPE STILL NON-EXISTENT
WITH MU CAPE BETWEEN 100 TO 250 J/KG. THE REALLY MOISTURE RICH AIR
IS STILL JUST TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE CWA. SHEAR VALUES ARE
PLENTIFUL TO SUPPORT SEVERE WEATHER HOWEVER...WITH 0-1KM HELICITY
OF 450+ AND 0-6KM BULK SHEAR AROUND 70 KTS.

OVER THE NEXT 1 TO 3 HOURS...A VERY STRONG MID LEVEL
JET FROM THE SOUTHWEST IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO WESTERN ALABAMA
BY THE HRRR. WE SHOULD SEE AN INCREASING IN PRECIPITABLE WATER
WITH DEWPOINTS RISING INTO THE MID AND UPPER 60S AND AN INCREASE
IN THE POTENTIAL FOR SURFACE BASED CONVECTION.

STILL A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY WITH THE POTENTIAL RE-DEVELOPMENT LATER
THIS AFTERNOON. LOOKS LIKE THERE MIGHT BE A SECONDARY MID LEVEL
SPEED MAX TO DEVELOP OVER THE CWA BY AFTERNOON. HI-RES MODELS DO
RESPOND WITH SOME REDEVELOPMENT IN THE AREA SO THE POTENTIAL FOR A
SECOND ROUND OF SEVERE WEATHER STILL POSSIBLE. WILL SEE HOW THE
CURRENT CONVECTION EVOLVES THROUGH THE EARLY TO MID MORNING AND
UPDATE LATER FOR ANY CHANGES.

88

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF DISCUSSION.

AT 12Z...FIRST WAVE OF TSRA WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS EAST AL AND
KMGM AND KTOI THROUGH 1430Z. BEHIND THIS SYSTEM...LINGERING MVFR
CIGS WILL OCCUR THROUGH 18Z...WITH BRIEF PERIODS OF IFR CIGS ABOVE
GROUND LEVEL IN HIGHER TERRAIN SITES LIKE KANB AND KASN. BY
14Z...SOUTHWEST SFC WINDS WILL PICK UP IN INTENSITY...ALONG WITH
SLOWING BREAKS IN CLOUDS WHICH WILL LEAD TO MIXING AND CIGS RISING
TO VFR CONDITIONS AROUND 18Z.  WITH MAIN FRONT STILL FAR TO THE
WEST...AND APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL
FOR TSRA REDEVELOPMENT AFTER 18Z.  HOWEVER...CURRENT THINKING IS
THAT ACTIVITY WILL BE TOO ISOLATED TO PINPOINT AT ANY TAF SITE OTHER
THAN VCTS. STEFKOVICH


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     78  62  79  51  72 /  90  30  10  10   0
ANNISTON    79  64  81  54  73 /  90  30  10  10   0
BIRMINGHAM  81  65  82  55  73 /  90  20  10  10   0
TUSCALOOSA  83  65  84  56  75 /  60  10  10  10  10
CALERA      81  65  83  56  74 /  80  20  10  10  10
AUBURN      78  65  83  57  75 /  90  30  10  10  10
MONTGOMERY  83  67  87  60  78 /  80  20  10  10  10
TROY        83  67  87  61  79 /  70  20  10  10  10

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$



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