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Area Forecast Discussion

982
FXUS64 KBMX 292342
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
642 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 00Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

CURRENT WATER VAPOR AND RAP UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATES A CLOSED
LOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF JUST SOUTH OF THE LOUISIANA COAST. BACK
TO THE WEST AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXIST ACROSS THE FOUR CORNER
REGION. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED ACROSS THE MID-
ATLANTIC WITH A COLD FRONT BACK TO THE WEST ACROSS THE MID-
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY STRETCHING TO THE SOUTHWEST INTO THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS WITH EASTERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW AT THE SURFACE
ACROSS ALABAMA. THE CLOSED LOW TO THE SOUTHWEST IS BRINGING IN
PLENTY OF MOISTURE AND UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS TO
DEVELOP. CURRENT RADAR IMAGERY INDICATES NUMEROUS TO WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA MOVING TO THE NORTHWEST. THIS MORNINGS 12Z
BMX SOUNDING OBSERVED 1.67 INCHES OF PW WHICH IS AROUND THREE
QUARTERS OF AN INCH HIGHER THAN YESTERDAY MORNING. THEREFORE...THE
ATMOSPHERE ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA HAS CHANGED DRASTICALLY OVER THE
LAST 24-36 HRS. CURRENT MESO-ANALYSIS INDICATES AROUND 2000-3000
J/KG OF SBCAPE WITH AFTERNOON HEATING WITH DEEP LAYER 0-6 KM BULK
SHEAR LESS THAN 30 KTS. ESTIMATED SATELLITE PW VALUES ARE 1.5 INCHES
ACROSS THE AREA WITH THE SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES APPROACHING VALUES
NEAR 2 INCHES. OVERALL...COULD SEE A FEW STRONGER STORMS BUT NOT
EXPECTING ANYTHING SEVERE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT BUT
MAY HAVE TO WATCH FOR SOME AREAS OF LOCALIZED FLOODING WITH HEAVY
DOWNPOURS IN THE HIGH PW ENVIRONMENT.

FOR TONIGHT...EXPECT SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD. A LOT OF THE ACTIVITY IS BEING DRIVEN BY DIURNAL
INFLUENCES BUT EXPECT MORE ORGANIZED LIFT WILL MOVE IN TONIGHT
SUPPORTING CONTINUED SHOWERS AND STORMS. MODELS INDICATE THAT THE
CLOSED LOW WILL MOVE ONSHORE AROUND THE AL/FL LINE. THE UPPER LEVEL
JET WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 60 KTS WITH DIFFLUENT FLOW OCCURRING TO
THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE CLOSED LOW. THE LOCATION OF THE JET WILL
ALSO PUT CENTRAL ALABAMA IN THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF THE JET A
FAVORED AREA TO SUPPORT UPWARD MOTION. PW VALUES WILL CONTINUE TO BE
IN THE 1.7-1.9 INCH RANGE. THEREFORE...EXPECT HIGHS POPS WILL
CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS ESPECIALLY OVER
EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. THE CLOSED LOW EVENTUALLY TRACKS TO
THE SOUTH OF THE AREA EARLY TOMORROW MORNING WITH POPS DECREASING
TOWARDS SUNRISE. CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON
SUNDAY AS THE CLOSED LOW TRACKS OFF TO THE NORTHEAST AND EXPECT
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL COME TO AN END FROM SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHEAST. MODELS INDICATE THAT CLOUDS THROUGHOUT MOST OF THE DAY
SHOULD KEEP HIGH TEMPERATURES DOWN IN THE 80S.

PRECIPITATION CHANCES BEGIN TO FALL OFF EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH PW
VALUES AROUND 1.5 INCHES WITHOUT A SIGNIFICANT LIFTING MECHANISM.
MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE PLACEMENT OF THE
REMNANTS OF ERIKA WITH THE GFS BEING THE FURTHEST TO THE WEST.
HOWEVER...THERE IS A GOOD DEAL OF DIFFERENCE IN TIMING WITH THE GEM
BEING THE QUICKEST. EXPECT CENTRAL ALABAMA WILL BE NEAR THE EDGE OF
THE MOISTURE AS THE SYSTEM PASSES TO THE EAST. FOR NOW...HAVE GONE
WITH 20-30 POPS FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK WITH BEST CHANCES ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST. IF MODEL TRENDS GO FURTHER TO THE EAST WITH THE REMNANTS
OF ERIKA...EXPECT POPS WOULD CONTINUE TO DECREASE FOR EARLY NEXT
WEEK. LATE IN THE WEEK...MODELS DEVELOP ANOTHER CLOSED LOW ACROSS
THE NORTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO SIMILAR TO THE CURRENT SITUATION AND
WILL SEE POPS INCREASE LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD.

05/MA

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION.

OVERALL COVERAGE BEGINNING TO DISSIPATE OUT THERE THIS EVENING. COVERAGE
WILL REMAIN REDUCED OVERNIGHT...BUT RAIN CHANCES WILL REMAIN
POSSIBLE. CONFIDENCE IS GROWING THAT THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN
PLACE WILL ALLOW LOW LEVEL MVFR/IFR CIGS TO DEVELOP MORE
WIDESPREAD BY THE 12Z PERIOD SO INCLUDED AT ALL SITES. THESE LOW
CLOUDS WILL EVENTUALLY RISE LATE MORNING WITH MORE SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLY THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 21Z. BEST COVERAGE WILL BE EAST OF
I-65.

16

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS TONIGHT
AND END FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST TOMORROW. DRIER AIR WILL MOVE
IN TO START THE WORK WEEK BUT RH VALUES WILL REMAIN ABOVE CRITICAL
THRESHOLD VALUES. NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED AT THIS
TIME.

05/MA

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$



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