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Area Forecast Discussion

571
FXUS64 KBMX 300829
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
329 AM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

.DISCUSSION...

SO...ANOTHER SUMMER NIGHT ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA WITH LOWS IN THE
MID 70S...WILL GIVE WAY TO ANOTHER DAY OF SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA. UNFORTUNATELY BEFORE
THE RAIN RELIEF CAN WORK INTO THE AREA...THE SOUTH MAY REACH OR
EXCEED HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA...SO ISSUED FOR THE SOUTHWESTERN
COUNTIES FOR THIS AFTERNOON. ONCE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS GET
GOING THEY WILL LIKELY CLUSTER AT TIMES. IT IS WHEN THEY CLUSTER
THAT THE STRONGER STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE. UNFORTUNATELY TO GIVE
ANY EXACT LOCATION OR EVEN TIME FRAME WOULD BE DIFFICULT AT THIS
TIME. ALL OF THIS WILL BE AHEAD OF A FEATURE THAT IS MOVING INTO
THE NORTHERN COUNTIES THIS MORNING.

THAT FEATURE WOULD BE A COLD FRONT. NO REALLY ITS A COLD FRONT.
OF COURSE IT IS LATE JULY SO REALLY ALL A COLD FRONT WILL DO THIS
TIME OF THE YEAR IS PROVIDE THE AREA WITH A FEW DEGREES OF RELIEF.
AT LEAST WITH THIS IT LOOKS LIKE OUR MID 70S SUMMER NIGHT DREAMS
MAY BE A THING OF THE PAST AS DEWPOINTS WILL DROP INTO THE LOWER
60S AND MAYBE EVEN UPPER 50S BY FRIDAY MORNING. WHAT IS EVEN MORE
IMPRESSING IS A SECONDARY FRONT WILL BRING A RE-ENFORCING SHOT OF
DRY AIR IN ON SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL HELP KEEP THE AREA FAIRLY
DRY THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY. WITH THAT SAID THERE WILL BE AN AREA
OF INTEREST IN THE EASTERN GULF THAT COULD KEEP SOME ISOLATED
SHOWERS/STORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH TUESDAY. REALLY
DEPENDS ON THE TRACK OF THE SYSTEM. MODELS HAVE HAD ALMOST ZERO
AGREEMENT ON THIS SYSTEM OVER THE PAST 4 NIGHTS.

AS WE MOVE INTO MIDWEEK...ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL TRY TO SWEEP
SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE AREA. WITH THE SYSTEM IN THE GULF...MOISTURE
MAY REMAIN LIMITED WITH THIS NEXT SYSTEM SO WILL JUST GO WITH MORE
OF THE TYPICAL SUMMER TIME PATTERN FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE END
OF NEXT WEEK.

16

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF DISCUSSION.

ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST CENTRAL ALABAMA COULD IMPACT
TOI AT THE BEGINNING OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. OTHERWISE...THE ONLY
IMPACT OVERNIGHT WILL BE MVFR FOG.

A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY.
BEST CHANCE FOR STORMS WILL BE ALONG AND AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY
ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL ALABAMA DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. EXPECT
WINDS TO BE OUT OF THE NORTH AS THE FRONT PASSES AT 8-12KTS.

14


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND HIGH HUMIDITY VALUES WILL CONTINUE
TODAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL BRING LESS HUMID AIR INTO CENTRAL
ALABAMA ON FRIDAY...ALONG WITH DECREASING CHANCES OF RAIN THROUGH
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     94  68  90  66  91 /  40  20  10  10  10
ANNISTON    94  70  91  67  91 /  50  20  10  10  10
BIRMINGHAM  95  69  92  70  92 /  40  20  10   0  10
TUSCALOOSA  97  69  93  69  93 /  50  20  10   0   0
CALERA      94  70  92  68  91 /  60  20  10  10  10
AUBURN      94  72  91  71  90 /  60  40  30  30  30
MONTGOMERY  97  73  93  72  94 /  70  40  20  10  20
TROY        96  73  93  72  92 /  60  50  30  20  40

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
AUTAUGA-DALLAS-GREENE-HALE-LOWNDES-MARENGO-MONTGOMERY-PERRY-
SUMTER.

&&

$$



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