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Area Forecast Discussion

881
FXUS64 KBMX 222039
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
339 PM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...

A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST
AND IS THE MAIN REASON FOR THE SCATTERED SHOWERS THROUGHOUT THE DAY.
AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY MOVING INTO NORTHWESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH DRIER AIR MOVING IN BEHIND THE
FRONT. FROM THE OBSERVATIONS...THERE IS NOT MUCH OF A TEMPERATURE
DIFFERENCE ALONG THE FRONT BUT THERE IS A NOTICEABLE DIFFERENCE IN
THE DEWPOINTS AND THERE IS ALSO A WIND SHIFT. SO FAR...THERE HAS
BEEN VERY LITTLE LIGHTNING ACTIVITY WITH THE SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON.
THERE WERE A COUPLE OF LIGHTNING STRIKES EARLIER ACROSS EAST ALABAMA
BUT NOTHING AS OF LATE. THE SHOWERS ARE HAVE TROUBLE GAINING
VERTICAL EXTENT. THE OVERALL INSTABILITY IS NOT TOO BAD WITH SBCAPE
VALUES RUNNING AROUND 300-800 J/KG BUT THE DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS
EXTREMELY WEAK AND NOT EXPECTING ANYTHING MORE THAN A FEW RUMBLES
OF THUNDER THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. THE COLD
FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA THROUGHOUT THE
NEXT FEW HOURS WITH DRIER AIR MOVING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL EXIT THE AREA FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST.
ADDITIONALLY...MODELS INDICATE THAT MOST OF THE ACTIVITY IS DIURNALLY
DRIVEN WITH LITTLE PRECIPITATION EXPECTED AFTER SUNSET. DUE TO
THIS...HAVE ONLY MENTIONED THE CHANCE FOR A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST COUNTIES FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS AFTER SUNSET.
SKIES WILL BEGIN TO CLEAR TONIGHT FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST AND
THERE COULD BE SOME FOG ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH
THE RECENT RAINFALL.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY SHOULD BE BEAUTIFUL DAYS ACROSS CENTRAL
ALABAMA. UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS WILL INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE WEEK AS
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AMPLIFIES ALONG THE EAST COAST. WITH HEIGHT
RISES...TEMPERATURES WILL INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE WEEK WITH HIGHS
REACHING UP INTO 80S ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA BY THURSDAY.
THE NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN ARRIVES LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
FRIDAY. MODELS DIFFER ON THE STRENGTH OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BUT
ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING. THE ECMWF INDICATES
TWO WEAK WAVES ONE THAT MOVES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND THE
OTHER ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE GREAT LAKES. A WEAK
SURFACE LOW TRACKS TO THE NORTH OF CENTRAL ALABAMA THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY WITH A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE FRONT.
THE GFS PHASES THE TWO WAVES LATE THURSDAY ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
WITH A DEEPENING LOW THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. REGARDLESS...THE
UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT FOR ANY STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS IS WELL TO THE
NORTH AND HAVE NOT MENTIONED ANY SEVERE WEATHER RISK IN THE HWO.
NONETHELESS...THERE IS SOME MODEL CONSISTENCY AND HAVE INCREASED POPS
DURING THIS TIMEFRAME.


TEMPERATURES WILL REALLY GO UP OVER THE WEEKEND WITH THE FORECAST
AREA IN BETWEEN A DEEP TROUGH TO THE EAST AND WEST. UPPER LEVEL
HEIGHTS WILL ONCE AGAIN INCREASE AND TEMPERATURES SHOULD PUSH UP INTO
THE LOW AND MID 80S ON BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. DUE TO THE WARMER
TEMPERATURES...THERE COULD BE A FEW DIURNALLY DRIVEN THUNDERSTORMS
EACH AFTERNOON BUT DO NOT EXPECT COVERAGE TO BE ALL THAT IMPRESSIVE.
EARLY NEXT WEEK A NEGATIVELY TILTED CLOSED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
MOVE INTO THE MID-MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. A DECENT JET MAX WILL
FORM AROUND THE BASE OF THIS TROUGH AND THERE WILL BE UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO FORM. IN ADDITION...WITH WARM
TEMPERATURES THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF INSTABILITY ACROSS THE AREA.
BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE BEEN PRETTY CONSISTENT WITH THIS
FEATURE. THERE ARE STILL DETAILS TO WORK OUT BUT STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS COULD BE POSSIBLE LATE MONDAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY BASED ON THE
CURRENT MODELS SOLUTIONS. THE TIMING IS AT THE VERY END OF THE HWO
TIMEFRAME AND WILL FORGO MENTIONING IT IN THE HWO AT THIS TIME BUT
WILL LIKELY BE ADDED IN THE NEXT DAY OR SO IF MODEL TRENDS HOLD
TOGETHER.

05/MA

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVING THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. SCATTERED
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY EVENING FOR MOST LOCATIONS. A
BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CEILINGS WILL BE POSSIBLE AHEAD OF THE FRONT
BUT CEILINGS SHOULD CLEAR OUT BY EVENING.

THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME PATCHY FOG OVERNIGHT WITH CLEARING
SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. THE HIGHER CHANCES WILL BE IN THE SOUTHEAST
NEAR TOI.

NOTE...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IS NOW ISSUING SEASONAL
TERMINAL FORECASTS FOR THE TALLADEGA MUNICIPAL AIRPORT (KASN) IN
TALLADEGA...ALABAMA. THE FORECASTS WILL BE ISSUED THROUGH AT LEAST
MAY 8TH 00Z. DUE TO THE LIMITED AVAILABILITY OF OBSERVATIONS...
KASN TAF WILL HAVE AMD NOT SKED APPENDED TO THE END OF THE FORECAST.

88

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     50  74  46  80  59 /  10   0   0   0  40
ANNISTON    51  76  46  81  60 /  10   0   0   0  30
BIRMINGHAM  51  77  49  81  61 /  10   0   0   0  40
TUSCALOOSA  53  78  50  82  61 /  10   0   0   0  30
CALERA      53  77  50  82  61 /  10   0   0   0  30
AUBURN      54  76  51  80  59 /  20   0   0  10  20
MONTGOMERY  57  80  52  83  61 /  20   0   0   0  10
TROY        58  80  53  83  60 /  20   0   0  10  10

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$







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