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Area Forecast Discussion

028
FXUS64 KBMX 070540
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1140 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

.UPDATE...
FOR 06Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

QUIET EVENING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS
BETWEEN A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDING FROM TEXAS TO TENNESSEE AND
DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST. A FEW HIGH CLOUDS
ARE PRESENT ACROSS THE FAR NW COUNTIES WRAPPING AROUND THE UPPER
LOW WITH ADDITIONAL HIGH CLOUDS JUST SE OF THE FORECAST AREA.
COVERAGE OF HIGH CLOUDS SHOULD BE LIMITED AND THEREFORE NOT HAVE
MUCH OF AN EFFECT ON LOW TEMPERATURES. LOWERED LOW TEMPERATURES BY
A COUPLE DEGREES IN SOME AREAS BASED ON HOURLY TRENDS WITH UPPER
20S TO LOW 30S EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA. EXPECT SOME VARIATION
BETWEEN THE MORE SHELTERED AREAS THAT DECOUPLE AND OTHER AREAS
WHERE A FEW KNOTS OF WIND WILL PERSIST. OTHERWISE NO CHANGES TO
THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.

32/DAVIS


&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF DISCUSSION.

VFR CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED ANOTHER 24 HOURS. ONLY A FEW MID AND
HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS FLOATING AROUND. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT OVERNIGHT
AND SWINGING AROUND THE THE WEST NORTHWEST SUNDAY AFTERNOON AROUND
7KTS. A COLD FRONT WILL ENTER CENTRAL ALABAMA LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT/EARLY MONDAY WITH A POTENTIAL OF SOME BRIEF RESTRICTIVE
CEILINGS.

75

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. NO RAIN
EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY. LIGHT RAIN/SNOW CHANCES RETURN LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY ACROSS NORTH ALABAMA.

14

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 408 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016/

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS SWINGING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST TODAY...WITH A
SLIGHT INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER THIS MORNING. ALREADY SEEING
CLEAR SKIES SPREAD INTO THE WEST AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS
TO AMPLIFY TOWARD THE TENNESSEE VALLEY FROM EASTERN TEXAS. TONIGHT...WITH
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE
UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S...ALTHOUGH TYPICALLY COOLER SPOTS WILL DROP
TO MID 20S.

NEXT WEATHER MAKER FOR CENTRAL ALABAMA IS MOVING INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS TODAY FROM THE CANADIAN ROCKIES. THIS UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL
MOVE INTO THE MIDWEST...AMPLIFYING A LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE
EASTERN CONUS FOR THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. AS ENERGY ROTATES
THROUGH THE TROUGH AND ARCTIC AIR DIVES SOUTHWARD...THERE WILL BE
ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS BEGINNING SUNDAY
NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL ALABAMA. PRECIPITATION
IS EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT WITH NO SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS.

A FEW THINGS STICK OUT IN THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE THAT WE WILL
HAVE TO WATCH OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. TEMPERATURES ALOFT COOL VERY
QUICKLY WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE TROUGH...AND THE MOIST LAYER IS
ENTIRELY BELOW FREEZING. LOOKING AT TODAYS FORECAST
SOUNDINGS...LOOKS LIKE THE MOIST LAYER IS DEEPER THAN
YESTERDAY...WITH VERY GOOD LAPSE RATES IN THE MOIST LAYER. THIS
COULD LEAD TO SNOW SHOWERS WHERE A QUICK DUSTING MIGHT BE
POSSIBLE. COLD ADVECTION IS SLOWER AT THE SURFACE...WHICH REMAINS
ABOVE FREEZING THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON. MODEL GUIDANCE DIFFERS
ON HOW QUICKLY THE LOWEST 1-2KFT DROP BELOW FREEZING. THIS COULD
BE THE DIFFERENCE IN LIGHT RAIN/SPRINKLES AND LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES
LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON. PRECIPITATION BECOMES ALL LIGHT SNOW
MONDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP INTO THE UPPER 20S AND LOWER
30S MONDAY NIGHT...WITH WINDS AROUND 6-8KTS. WITH LITTLE TO NO
ACCUMULATION...DO NOT EXPECT IMPACTS FROM ANY FROZEN
PRECIPITATION. WITH CONTINUED COLD ADVECTION TUESDAY AND LIGHT
SNOW SHOWERS IN THE NORTH...TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN THE MID 30S
TO MID 40S. ANOTHER COUPLE COLD NIGHTS ARE ON TAP FOR TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHTS WITH LOWS IN THE 20S AND LOWER 30S.

CENTRAL ALABAMA REMAINS ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE TROUGH THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK. WILL NEED TO WATCH FOR A QUICK HITTING SYSTEM
LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD THAT COULD BRING RAIN BACK TO THE
AREA. FOR NOW...WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY WITH MODERATING
TEMPERATURES.

14

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     27  54  35  45  27 /   0   0  20  40  20
ANNISTON    29  55  37  47  28 /   0   0  20  30  20
BIRMINGHAM  30  55  38  46  29 /   0   0  20  30  10
TUSCALOOSA  28  57  37  48  29 /   0   0  10  20  10
CALERA      31  56  37  47  29 /   0   0  10  20  10
AUBURN      32  55  37  50  29 /   0   0  10  20  10
MONTGOMERY  31  58  37  53  31 /   0   0   0  10  10
TROY        31  57  38  56  30 /   0   0   0  10  10

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$



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