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Area Forecast Discussion

FXUS64 KBMX 300858

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
358 AM CDT SAT JUL 30 2016


The base of a broad upper trough is in place across the region
with weak cyclonic curvature at 500mb. Deep moisture and daytime
heating should lead to scattered showers and storms particularly
during the afternoon with highs in the 88-95F range. This activity
will gradually diminish during the evening hours.


Sunday through Saturday, the westerly flow aloft transitions to a
northerly flow. This shift is due to the mean trough moving to the
east coast and the ridge center building over the plains. Even with
the shift, the overall flow remains rather light and temperatures
aloft rather warm. A few short waves move through the flow but
these will provide only weak lift and the models are differing on
the exact timing. The surface ridge remains off to our east
providing a general southerly low level flow. Precipitable water
values remain 1.80 inches or higher much of the period with
surface dew points in the 70s. Therefore, kept the forecast trend
of near climatology pops going. There may be a period or two of
higher activity but this will be due to mesoscale or smaller
scales and will need to be ironed out as we go. High temperatures
in the mid 90s are supported by low level thickness and 850 temps
but there will be low level moisture and clouds. Bumped temps a
tad but generally low to mid 90s. This keeps the heat indices in
the 100 to 105 degree range. Model advertised thermodynamic
profiles do not indicate anything great for strong to severe
thunderstorms. Moisture content and relatively light winds through
the layer may allow a few heavy downpours but wind gust should be
below 40 mph, at least for now.



06Z TAF Discussion.

VFR conditions continue to prevail at all terminals this evening.
A few showers remain across eastern Alabama, but is expected to
remain south of KANB. Trends in latest data and guidance continue
to indicate a low chance of reduced cigs due to the overall lack
of isentropic lift. There`s still a chance of some patchy fog at
KANB due to rainfall that was observed earlier this afternoon but
if any impacts occur they should be minimal and short-lived. VFR
conditions will prevail through the day on Saturday, with
scattered showers and storms expected once again during the
afternoon and evening. Surface winds will prevail from the west
and west-southwest and remain light.




Generally scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected over
the next several days with highs in the upper 80s and low/mid 90s.
Surface winds will be less than 10 mph and generally from the
southwest/west through the weekend. Since surface dew points are
so high, critical fire weather thresholds are not expected to be
met, with no watches or warnings anticipated.


Gadsden     90  72  92  71  92 /  40  40  40  30  40
Anniston    91  73  93  72  93 /  40  40  40  30  40
Birmingham  91  76  93  74  93 /  40  40  40  30  40
Tuscaloosa  92  74  94  73  94 /  40  40  40  30  40
Calera      92  74  93  73  93 /  40  40  40  30  50
Auburn      91  74  93  74  93 /  40  40  40  30  50
Montgomery  94  75  95  74  94 /  40  40  40  40  50
Troy        92  73  92  72  92 /  40  40  40  40  50





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