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Area Forecast Discussion

000
FXUS64 KBMX 310953
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
453 AM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

.DISCUSSION...

TEMPERATURES ARE ALL OVER THE PLACE TONIGHT WITH HIGH CIRRUS
ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL ALABAMA...EXCEPT NONE ACROSS THE FAR
SOUTHEAST AS NOTED ON SATELLITE...AND SOME MINOR WINDS ARE
KEEPING READINGS FLUCTUATING AS WELL. THE SURFACE RIDGE IS
WEAKENING ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH AS A SURFACE LOW IS ATTEMPTING TO
INTENSIFY A TAD AND SHIFT BACK INTO ALABAMA/GEORGIA. EASTERLY
FLOW AROUND THE LOW INTO THE CENTRAL ALABAMA MAY HELP GENERATE A
FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BY AFTERNOON AS WE HEAT UP IN
CONJUNCTION WITH A WEAK UPPER IMPULSE MOVING AROUND THE BASE OF
THE MAIN UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER EASTERN CANADA.

AS WE MOVE INTO THE WEEKEND INTO THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK...
TEMPERATURES SHOULD RESPOND BY GOING BACK UP AS THE COOLER FLOW
IS CUT OFF WITH WARMEST READINGS IN THE SOUTHEAST FOR THE MOST
PART BUT COULD BE AFFECTED BY SLIGHTLY EARLIER ONSET OF CONVECTION
AT TIMES. RAIN CHANCES SHOULD INCREASE AS WE MOVE INTO THE WEEKEND
FOR TWO REASONS...ONE AS THE SURFACE LOW RETROGRADES AND INTERACTS
WITH WEAK UPPER SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH THE BASE OF THE STAGNANT
UPPER LOW PRESSURE TROUGH OVER EASTERN CANADA THROUGH THE FIRST
PART OF THE WEEKEND. THEN REASON TWO WILL BE THAT A PIECE OF THE
UPPER TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO DIG DECENTLY ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S.
AS WE PROGRESS THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS THE MAIN LOW MOVES INTO THE
ATLANTIC SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

BY TUESDAY...THE REMAINING ENERGY FROM THE UPPER TROUGH LOOKS TO
WEAKEN WITH A FLATTENING FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHEAST AND RIDGING
BUILDING OVER THE SOUTHWEST U.S. AND THE EASTERN GULF INTO THE
CARIBBEAN WITH VERY WEAK FLOW IN BETWEEN AS WE MOVE INTO MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK. THERE IS A LITTLE BIT BETTER AGREEMENT WITH EXTENDED
MODEL SOLUTIONS FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS FROM YESTERDAY...SO
I`M FEELING BETTER ABOUT LOWER POPS TUESDAY THRU MID WEEK AND
MODERATING TEMPERATURES BUT SOME HEAT INDUCED ISOLATED ACTIVITY IS
NOT OUT OF THE REALM OF POSSIBILITY.

08/MK

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF DISCUSSION.

VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF. CIRRUS CONTINUES TO SPILL OVER THE
AREA TONIGHT. WINDS WILL BE VERY LIGHT TONIGHT AND A LIGHT NORTH TO
NORTHEAST WIND IS EXPECTED TOMORROW. LOOK FOR CLOUDS TO GRADUALLY
BUILD DOWN TOMORROW WITH SOME CEILINGS OF 10K POSSIBLE LATE IN
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. SOME MODELS ARE SHOWING SOME LIGHT
RAIN POSSIBLE NEAR ANB LATE AFTERNOON AS AN EASTERLY WAVE BRINGS
IN SLIGHTLY HIGHER MOISTURE LEVELS ACROSS EASTERN ALABAMA. AT THIS
TIME WILL NOT MENTION ANY RAIN IN THE ANB TAF BUT BRING THE
CEILINGS DOWN TO 5K.

88

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     84  66  84  67  85 /  20  20  40  30  50
ANNISTON    84  66  84  68  85 /  20  30  50  40  50
BIRMINGHAM  85  67  85  69  86 /  20  30  40  30  50
TUSCALOOSA  86  66  86  69  88 /  20  30  30  30  40
CALERA      86  68  86  69  87 /  20  30  40  30  50
AUBURN      87  68  86  70  86 /  20  20  40  30  50
MONTGOMERY  90  69  89  71  90 /  10  20  40  30  50
TROY        89  68  89  70  88 /  10  20  40  30  50

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

08/88





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