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Area Forecast Discussion

123
FXUS64 KBMX 151145
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
645 AM CDT TUE APR 15 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 12Z AVIATION.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

A COLD FRONT WILL MAKE ITS WAY THROUGH ALL OF CENTRAL ALABAMA THIS
MORNING...BRINGING COLDER AND WINDY CONDITIONS TO THE AREA TODAY.
RAIN CHANCES SHOULD END BY LATE MORNING ACROSS THE EAST AS THE
COLD FRONT AND UPPER TROUGH CONTINUE EASTWARD. EXPECT HIGHS TO
STRUGGLE THIS AFTERNOON WITH STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION ON THE BACK
SIDE OF THE FRONT AND MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES EXPECTED THROUGH THE
DAY. SOME LOCATIONS ACROSS OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES MAY NOT GET OUT
OF THE 40S...WHILE 50S WILL BE IN STORE FOR EVERYONE FURTHER
SOUTH. WITH A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT BEHIND THE FRONT...WINDS
WILL BE QUITE GUSTY OUT OF THE NORTH/NORTHWEST THIS MORNING AND
CONTINUING THROUGH ABOUT 6 PM THIS EVENING. FORECAST WIND GUSTS OF
35+ MPH FROM THE OPERATIONAL SHORT TERM MODELS SUGGEST THAT A WIND
ADVISORY IS NEEDED...ALTHOUGH SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS MAY BE MORE
MARGINAL AROUND 20 MPH. WENT AHEAD AND ISSUED A WIND ADVISORY FOR
THE WHOLE CWA.

FOR TONIGHT...BASED OFF THE LATEST MAV/MET/EURO MOS GUIDANCE AND
RAW MODEL OUTPUT...A LATE SEASON FREEZE WILL BE LIKELY FOR
ALMOST THE ENTIRE AREA...AND HAVE ISSUED A FREEZE WARNING FOR ALL
OF CENTRAL ALABAMA FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL
LESSEN AFTER 6 PM FOR ALL LOCATIONS EXPECT SOUTH OF I-85. THAT
AREA WILL HAVE 5-10 MPH WINDS THROUGH THE NIGHT BEFORE WEAKENING
JUST BEFORE SUNRISE WEDNESDAY MORNING. ANY LINGERING CLOUDS FROM
TODAY WILL BE GONE BY MIDNIGHT...ALLOWING RADIATIONAL COOLING TO
OCCUR. THE COLDEST TEMPS WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTH IN SHELTERED AND
VALLEY LOCATIONS...WHERE MID TO UPPER 20S WILL BE PREVALENT. FOR
LOCATIONS ALONG THE I-20 CORRIDOR...TEMPS IN THE UPPER 20S TO JUST
BELOW FREEZING APPEAR PROBABLE. FOR SOUTH CENTRAL ALABAMA EXPECT
TEMPS WILL BE GENERALLY 30-33 DEGREES. THE FREEZING TEMPS WILL BE
MARGINAL ACROSS OUR SOUTHEAST COUNTIES WHERE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
STAY UP MOST OF THE NIGHT. AND WHILE NOT ALL LOCATIONS WILL FALL
BELOW FREEZING...PLACES THAT ARE AT 32-33 DEGREES WILL PROBABLY
SEE AREAS OF FROST...WHICH CAN BE JUST AS DAMAGING TO VEGETATION.
SO RATHER THAN GETTING CUTE WITH A FREEZE WARNING NORTH AND FROST
ADVISORY FOR OUR SOUTHEAST COUNTIES...KEPT THINGS SIMPLE WITH A
FREEZE WARNING FOR ALL OF CENTRAL ALABAMA SINCE NEARLY EVERYONE IS
FORECAST TO HIT FREEZING OR BELOW.

IF THIS FREEZE ACTUALLY OCCURS...IT WOULD BE RECORD SETTING IN
TERMS OF HOW LATE IT IS IN THE SPRING SEASON. FOR MORE
INFORMATION...SEE THE CLIMATE SECTION BELOW.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD RISE ABOVE FREEZING AROUND 8 AM WEDNESDAY
MORNING...AND TOP OUT IN THE 60S IN THE AFTERNOON UNDER CLEAR
SKIES. LOW TEMPERATURES REBOUND INTO THE MID 30S NORTHEAST TO
LOWER 40S SOUTH FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY MORNING. THEREFORE A
SECOND FREEZE AFTER TONIGHT IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

77/GLEASON

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE STARTS OFF FAIRLY AGREEABLE. AN UPPER TROF
BEGINS DEVELOPING WEST WHILE HEIGHTS RISE UNDER SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
OVERHEAD. TEMPERATURES START OFF BELOW NORMAL BUT WE CAN EXPECT A
WARMING TREND THROUGH MONDAY. A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER
TROF PUSHES OUR WAY AND EVENTUALLY MAKES IT INTO CENTRAL ALABAMA BY
LATE FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY. THIS FRONT WILL BE IN A DISSIPATING
STAGE AS UPPER HEIGHTS QUICKLY RISE INTO SUNDAY.

MOISTURE WORKS ITS WAY AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE SURFACE RIDGE OFF
TO OUR EAST BY THURSDAY. MOST OF THIS MOISTURE IS ABOVE THE
SURFACE...AT LEAST INITIALLY. INSTALLED POPS IN THE 20-45 RANGE
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. UPWARD MOTION AND OVERALL LIFT
ARE NOT TOO IMPRESSIVE WHILE OVERALL MOISTURE CONTENT IS MUCH BELOW
THE PREVIOUS FEW SYSTEMS. THEREFORE...RAIN AMOUNTS WILL NOT BE TOO
HIGH OR EXCESSIVE THIS TIME OUT.

DO NOT HAVE POPS MENTIONED SUNDAY OR MONDAY AT THIS TIME. THE
EXTENDED RANGE MODELS DO NOT AGREE IN THIS TIME FRAME AT ALL. SO
EXPECT SOME ALTERATIONS HERE.

75

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF DISCUSSION.

BORDERLINE IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT SHOWERS SHOULD CONTINUE
BEHIND A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE FIRST FEW HOURS OF THE TAF PERIOD.
CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TOWARD 18Z AS CIGS RISE AND CLEARING
OCCURS. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY FROM THE NORTHWEST THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON.

NOTE...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILL BE ISSUING SEASONAL
TERMINAL FORECASTS FOR THE TALLADEGA MUNICIPAL AIRPORT (KASN) IN
TALLADEGA...ALABAMA. THE FORECASTS WILL BE ISSUED FROM APRIL 20TH
00Z THROUGH AT LEAST MAY 8TH 00Z. DUE TO THE LIMITED AVAILABILITY
OF OBSERVATIONS...KASN TAF WILL HAVE AMD NOT SKED APPENDED TO THE
END OF THE FORECAST.

87

&&

.CLIMATE...

TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY MORNING MAY APPROACH OR BREAK RECORD LOWS
ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA.

CURRENT FORECAST AND RECORD MINIMUM TEMPERATURES FOR BIRMINGHAM AND
MONTGOMERY FOR APRIL 16TH...

                    BIRMINGHAM              MONTGOMERY

CURRENT FORECAST:   31                      32
RECORD:             32 (1950/1962/1983)     36 (1950/2008)

IF A FREEZE OCCURS ON WEDNESDAY MORNING AT BIRMINGHAM...IT WOULD BE
THE LATEST FREEZE DATE SINCE 1997...RANKING 6TH AMONG HISTORICAL
LAST FREEZES SINCE 1897.

IF A FREEZE OCCURS ON WEDNESDAY MORNING AT MONTGOMERY...IT WOULD SET
THE RECORD FOR THE LATEST FREEZE DATE SINCE RECORDS BEGAN IN 1873.

AVERAGE AND HISTORICAL LAST FREEZES FOR BIRMINGHAM AND MONTGOMERY...

                            BIRMINGHAM      MONTGOMERY

AVERAGE LAST FREEZE:        MARCH 25        MARCH  8

HISTORICAL LAST FREEZES:    APRIL 23 1986   APRIL 13 1940
                            APRIL 22 1993   APRIL  9 2000
                            APRIL 21 1953   APRIL  8 2009
                            APRIL 21 1983   APRIL  7 1950
                            APRIL 18 1997   APRIL  6 1891
                            APRIL 16 1950   APRIL  4 1987
                            APRIL 16 1962   APRIL  2 1881

87/GRANTHAM

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR ALL OF
CENTRAL ALABAMA.

WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM CDT THIS EVENING
FOR ALL OF CENTRAL ALABAMA.

&&

$$








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