« Back
NWS Peachtree City, Ga » Text Product » BMX Area Forecast Discussion


Printer-friendly Version     Surrounding:  BMX  MRX  FFC  CAE  TAE  
Current Version              Previous Versions:   1  2  3  4  5  6  7  8  9  

Area Forecast Discussion

631
FXUS64 KBMX 280915
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
415 AM CDT THU APR 28 2016

.SHORT TERM...
TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT.

THE LULL IN THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THAT WAS ADVERTISED
YESTERDAY HAS IN FACT MATERIALIZED EARLY THIS MORNING. ONLY WEATHER
IMPACTS ARE CURRENTLY FOG DEVELOPMENT, ESPECIALLY IN LOCATIONS THAT
SAW THE MOST SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY DURING THE DAY ON
WEDNESDAY. LOW STRATUS HAS ALSO DEVELOPED ACROSS MANY AREAS AS WELL.
EXPECT THAT TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF THE OVERNIGHT THROUGH
SUNRISE, AND WE`LL MONITOR FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF ISSUING A DENSE
FOG ADVISORY.

THE NEXT ROUND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATER ON
THIS MORNING, ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING
ACROSS THE GULF COAST. THAT ENERGY WILL BE ROTATING AROUND THE
PERIPHERY OF THE LARGE UPPER RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL GULF
OF MEXICO. HIGH-RES GUIDANCE THIS MORNING IS PROJECTING SHOWER AND
STORM DEVELOPMENT OVER A LARGE PORTION OF THE CENTRAL GULF COAST,
PUSHING NORTHWARD INTO SOUTHERN COUNTIES OF CENTRAL ALABAMA THIS
MORNING. DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND STORMS HAS ALREADY BEGUN ACROSS
EASTERN LOUISIANA, SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI, AND FAR SOUTHERN ALABAMA
EARLY THIS MORNING. WITH MID-LEVEL FLOW ALMOST DUE WESTERLY ACROSS
THE SOUTHEAST, WE AREN`T EXPECTING THIS ACTIVITY TO HAVE A LOT OF
NORTHWARD PUSH. THEREFORE, HAVE GONE WITH THE HIGHEST POPS
GENERALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE U.S. 80/I-85 CORRIDOR THIS MORNING
AND THROUGH THE DAY TODAY.

LOOKING AT SEVERE WEATHER CHANCES TODAY, THINKING REMAINS THE SAME
AS WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. AS THE OLD SURFACE FRONT MOVES INTO
CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI AND NORTHWEST ALABAMA THIS AFTERNOON, THERE
WILL BE A CHANCE OF SCATTERED TO ISOLATED STORMS ALONG THE FRONT,
BUT RAIN CHANCES WILL GENERALLY BE LOWER ACROSS THE NORTH.
AS DAYTIME HEATING INCREASES INSTABILITY VALUES TO WELL OVER 2000
J/KG THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS SOUTHERN ALABAMA, A LIMITED CHANCE OF
SEVERE STORMS WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST. DAMAGING STRAIGHT-LINE
WINDS AND LARGE HAIL WILL REMAIN THE PRIMARY HAZARDS, AS WE`LL SEE
STEEP LAPSE RATES ALOFT AND VEERING OF THE WIND PROFILE WITH
HEIGHT. THOSE INGREDIENTS WILL HELP PRODUCE MORE ORGANIZED
THUNDERSTORM UPDRAFTS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE ALSO INDICATING LOTS
OF DRY AIR ALOFT, WHICH CAN LEAD TO MORE OF A DAMAGING-STRAIGHT
LINE WIND THREAT. DOWNDRAFT CAPE VALUES ARE BEING ADVERTISED
BETWEEN 1000 AND 1500 J/KG. WE AREN`T LOOKING AT ANY THREAT OF
TORNADOES, WITH 0-1KM SHEAR PROFILES REMAINING WEAK AND
UNIDIRECTIONAL. MOST ACTIVITY WILL WIND DOWN AFTER SUNSET THIS
EVENING AND THE OLD SURFACE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO STALL AROUND THE I-
20 CORRIDOR BY MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. ATTENTION WILL THEN FOCUS BACK TO
OUR WEST, WITH ANOTHER WAVE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS POSSIBLY PUSHING
INTO THE SOUTHEAST BY FRIDAY MORNING.

56/GDG

.LONG TERM...
FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE AREA FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AS TROUGHING AND A CLOSED LOW SHIFT INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS...AND THE BRIEF PERIOD OF DRY CONDITIONS WILL COME TO AN
END. IN RESPONSE TO THE LOW SYSTEM...THE STALLED FRONT TO OUR
SOUTH WILL LIFT NORTHWARD. BETTER FORCING AND MOISTURE RETURN
WILL BE TO OUR WEST...AND WILL KEEP POPS ONLY IN THE WEST FRIDAY
AND FRIDAY NIGHT. SATURDAY...THE AREA WILL BE IN THE WARM SECTOR.
HIGHER RES MODELS SHOW BETTER LIFT WILL BE TO OUR NORTH ASSOCIATED
WITH A LLJ MAX AND PROXIMITY TO THE PARENT LOW...AND MOST OF THE
ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN WEST AND NORTH OF CENTRAL ALABAMA.
HOWEVER...WITH SURFACE INSTABILITY INCREASING TO 1000J/KG+ DURING
THE AFTERNOON...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE AREAWIDE...WITH BEST CHANCES IN THE NORTH.

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY AS
THE SURFACE LOW MOVES EASTWARD THROUGH THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY.
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL LIKELY BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD BY SUNDAY
MORNING. WITH INCREASED CLOUD COVER...INSTABILITY WILL LIKELY BE
LIMITED...BUT THUNDER/LIGHTNING IS POSSIBLE. THE FRONT MOVES
THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH DRIER AIR SPREADING SOUTHWARD.
THE ECMWF IS SLOWER TO CLEAR THE FRONT TO THE SOUTH...AND QUICKLY
BRINGS A MORE AMPLIFIED TROUGH THROUGH THE AREA ON THE PREVIOUS
TROUGH`S HEELS. THIS WOULD KEEP RAIN CHANCES IN THE FORECAST
THROUGH TUESDAY. FOR NOW WILL LEAVE LOW POPS IN THE FORECAST AS A
COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE WET ECMWF AND DRY GFS.

14

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF DISCUSSION.

WITH HIGH CLOUDS SHIFTING OFF TO THE EAST...WE CAN START TO GET A
GLIMPSE OF WHAT EXTENT THE LOW CLOUDS WILL FILL IN AND SPREAD
ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA OVERNIGHT. MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD
AGREEMENT OVERNIGHT IN THE LACK OF ADDITIONAL RAIN...BUT THE
DEVELOPMENT OF IFR LEVEL CLOUDS. TIMING AT EACH AIRPORT IS STILL A
BIT IFFY...BUT THE OVERALL TREND SHOULD GENERALLY BE FROM SOUTH
AND WEST TO NORTH AND EAST.

I WENT WITH A RAIN FREE FORECAST THROUGH THE DAY ON THURSDAY AS
WELL. THERE`S BOUND TO BE SOME THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IN THE
AFTERNOON...BUT MY CONFIDENCE IS STILL QUITE LOW. IF STORMS NEED
TO BE ADDED TO THE FORECAST...IT WOULD PROBABLY EVENTUALLY BE AT
MGM AND TOI.

/61/


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY AS A
FRONT SINKS SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE AREA. HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE
POSSIBLE...WITH SOME STORMS PRODUCING STRONG WIND GUSTS. A BRIEF DRY
PERIOD ON FRIDAY WILL BE FOLLOWED BY INCREASED RAIN CHANCES OVER
THE WEEKEND. NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS AT THIS TIME.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     82  59  86  61  82 /  10  10  10  10  40
ANNISTON    81  61  86  62  83 /  20  10  10   0  30
BIRMINGHAM  83  63  86  65  84 /  20  10  10  20  30
TUSCALOOSA  84  64  86  65  85 /  20  10  20  20  20
CALERA      82  63  85  65  84 /  30  10  10  10  20
AUBURN      80  64  86  65  84 /  50  20  10   0  20
MONTGOMERY  83  66  89  66  87 /  50  20  20   0  20
TROY        83  65  88  64  88 /  50  30  20   0  20

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.