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Area Forecast Discussion

787
FXUS64 KBMX 221205
AFDBMX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
705 AM CDT FRI JUL 22 2016

.UPDATE...
For 12Z Aviation.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Summer convection, oh what a rush! Have been watching all the
iterations of this during the afternoon and into tonight. With the
overall trends, have adjusted today/tonight`s pops based current
boundary position and models initiation and progress of the best
convection during the day. Also raised pops during the evening to
account for the leftover boundaries and scattered nature of the
evening storms that persist into the evening hours. Overall this
pattern will remain in effect through the weekend and into next
week. In fact do not really see any reason to not have at least
high scattered chances each afternoon through the extended.

There will be some daily differences with the path of the storms
based on the placement of the main upper ridge that is in place
over the Arklatex region region right now. But this will generally
only impact the overall movement, not the amount of coverage. With
very little change to the overall pattern and no major relief
through the weekend, will keep the heat concern in the hwo through
Monday. Heat advisories are in effect for today and Saturday as
heat indices will be near or exceeding 105 late morning into the
afternoon.

As we work into Tuesday and the later half of the week we will see
the overall ridge heights fall and the heat will subside some. At
least enough to get back to more normal summertime conditions.
That along with pretty substantial storm coverage by mid week,
things may be a touch more bearable. Then again we are approaching
the dog days of Summer in Alabama with August approaching rapidly.

16

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF Discussion.

A deck of IFR stratus has moved westward into Central Alabama
early this morning, but has not majorly impacted terminals so far.
Some temporary BKN IFR cigs are possible at KEET, KMGM, and KTOI
through 13z, but should not last very long before mixing out.
Otherwise, VFR conditions are expected through the day today. VCTS
remains in the TAFs due to scattered to numerous thunderstorms
expected to develop once again this afternoon and early evening.

56/GDG

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Isolated to scattered showers or thunderstorms are expected over the
next few days with highs in the mid to upper 90s. Heat indices
will be near or above Heat Advisory criteria through the weekend.
Slightly better rain chances and temperatures a couple of degrees
lower are possible by Tuesday to Wednesday of next week as the
upper ridge breaks down. Critical fire weather thresholds are not
expected to be met with no watches or warnings expected.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden     95  73  97  74  95 /  20  20  30  30  40
Anniston    94  74  96  75  94 /  20  20  30  30  40
Birmingham  96  76  96  76  95 /  40  20  30  30  30
Tuscaloosa  97  75  98  75  96 /  50  30  20  30  30
Calera      95  75  96  75  95 /  40  30  20  30  30
Auburn      95  75  96  75  94 /  40  30  20  20  40
Montgomery  96  75  98  76  96 /  50  40  20  20  30
Troy        94  73  96  74  93 /  50  40  20  20  30

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 9 PM CDT Saturday For
all of Central Alabama.

&&

$$



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