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Area Forecast Discussion

170
FXUS64 KBMX 021455
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
955 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

.UPDATE...
MORNING UPDATE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

A MESSY PATTERN ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES THIS MORNING. ZONAL
FLOW EXTENDS THROUGH A DEEP LAYER OF THE ATMOSPHERE...AND THE
SATELLITE BASED SOUNDER IS ESTIMATING PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
IN THE 1.7 TO 1.9 INCH RANGE ACROSS ALABAMA. SOME WEAK FORCING IS
PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA...AND MARGINAL
INSTABILITY WILL LIMIT THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THIS MORNING. THE
FORECAST MODELS SHOW DRIER MID LEVEL AIR OVER TEXAS SPREADING
RAPIDLY EASTWARD TODAY...AND THE MODELS ARE SHOWING A RELATIVE
MINIMUM IN CONVECTION ACROSS WEST ALABAMA THIS AFTERNOON. POPS
WERE ADJUSTED TO KEEP HIGHER RAIN CHANCES IN THE EAST FOR TODAY.

58/ROSE

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF DISCUSSION.

CIGS ARE A BIT MESSY THIS MORNING WITH CONDITIONS VARYING BETWEEN
IFR/MVFR/VFR AT SOME OF THE NORTHERN SITES. THIS WILL CONTINUE FOR
THE NEXT FEW HOURS BEFORE CIGS RISE INTO THE MVFR AND VFR RANGE.
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED BY LATE MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON. WILL ONLY INCLUDE VCTS DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE IN TIMING
AND IMPACTS TO ANY GIVEN TAF SITE. A LULL IN THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
MAY OCCUR DURING THE EVENING...BEFORE ANOTHER POSSIBLE ROUND OF
STORMS DURING THE OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE NORTHERN SITES.

87/GRANTHAM


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED EACH
DAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH RAIN CHANCES TAPERING OFF A BIT
NEXT WEEK. NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 637 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2015/

FRUSTRATIONS CONTINUE WITH THE FORECAST FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. IT`S BEEN A REAL STRUGGLE TO DECIDE
EXACTLY WHEN/WHERE TO PLACE THE HIGHEST POPS EACH DAY...AND THIS
TRANSLATES TO SOME ISSUES WITH HIGH/LOW TEMPS. UNFORTUNATELY THE
ALWAYS TRICKY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY
WITH A FEW MORE ROUNDS OF STRONG STORMS AFFECTING THE FORECAST
AREA.

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TODAY AS A MOISTURE
AXIS SHIFTS EASTWARD ACROSS THE STATE. RIGHT NOW IT LOOKS LIKE OUR
HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES WILL BE THIS MORNING WITH A POSSIBLE LULL IN
ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON...BUT BASED ON THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS
ANYTHING IS POSSIBLE.

A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN TO OUR NORTH ON
FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND. A COUPLE DISTURBANCES WILL RIDE
NE ALONG THE BOUNDARY BRINGING ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO CENTRAL ALABAMA...WITH THE BEST CHANCES IN THE
NORTH. JUST AS HAS BEEN THE CASE FOR THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS STRONG
STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH EACH ROUND OF CONVECTION. THE MAIN
THREATS WILL CONTINUE TO BE GUSTY WINDS AND POSSIBLY SMALL HAIL.
PWATS WILL REMAIN NEAR 2 INCHES SO HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE
PREVALENT WITH THE STORMS. ALTHOUGH WIDESPREAD FLOODING IS NOT
EXPECTED SOME LOCALIZED FLOODING IS POSSIBLE IF TRAINING OF STORMS
OCCURS.

UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL NEXT WEEK WITH PRIMARILY
DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION. TEMPERATURES WILL STAY AT OR JUST
BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE EXTENDED...WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S TO LOW
90S AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOW 70S.

19

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     85  70  85  70  83 /  40  60  60  50  60
ANNISTON    86  71  85  70  83 /  40  60  60  50  60
BIRMINGHAM  88  73  87  72  84 /  40  60  60  50  60
TUSCALOOSA  90  72  88  72  87 /  40  40  50  50  60
CALERA      89  73  87  71  85 /  40  40  50  40  50
AUBURN      87  72  87  72  86 /  60  30  30  30  40
MONTGOMERY  89  72  89  73  88 /  60  30  30  30  40
TROY        88  72  90  72  89 /  60  30  30  30  30

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$



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