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Area Forecast Discussion

004
FXUS64 KBMX 250530
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1130 PM CST MON NOV 24 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 06Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

A COLD FRONT IS NOW SOUTHEAST OF THE STATE TONIGHT...WITH
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE AREA BRINGING IN COOLER AND DRIER
AIR. SUBSTANTIAL CIRRUS DECK STREAMING SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT IN MID AND UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
WITH THE LONGWAVE TROUGH AXIS REMAINS WELL TO OUR WEST.

MADE TWEAKS TO THE FORECAST OVERNIGHT BASED ON CURRENT
TRENDS...BUT NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES ARE NEEDED. STILL SEEING THE
POSSIBILITY OF LIGHT RAIN ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEAST TOMORROW AS A
SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS ON THE FRONT AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SPREADS
BACK INTO PORTIONS OF THE AREA.

14


&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF DISCUSSION.

THE COLD FRONT REMAINS TO OUR EAST...BUT WILL ACTUALLY BEGIN TO
LIFT BACK TO THE NORTHWEST LATE AFTERNOON. THIS WILL HELP INCREASE
RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST...INCLUDING MGM AND TOI. ENOUGH
CONFIDENCE TO ADD IN RAIN BY 3Z FOR TOI AND VCSH FOR MGM. REST OF
THE AREAS WILL LIKELY REMAIN DRY THROUGH 6Z...BUT RAIN CHANCES
THEN GO UP AFTER THAT. OTHERWISE VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH
NORTHERLY WINDS.

16

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$








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