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Area Forecast Discussion

818
FXUS64 KBMX 271734
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1230 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.UPDATE...
AVIATION UPDATE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

CLOUDY IN THE SOUTH AND SUNNY IN THE NORTH AS THE COLD FRONT
CONTINUES TO PUSH SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA. MEANWHILE A FAIRLY
PROGRESSIVE SHORTWAVE WILL SLIDE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THIS WILL BE A VERY FAST MOVING SYSTEM AND WILL CLEAR THE
AREA BY MIDNIGHT. ANY RAIN CHANCE WILL BE IN THE NORTH AND SHOULD
BE DONE AROUND SUNSET. CLOUDS WILL CLEAR OUT IN THE NORTHEAST AND
MAY ALLOW THE NORTHEAST TO DROP TO FREEZING IF NOT JUST BELOW BY
SUNRISE SATURDAY. A SECONDARY SHORTWAVE SLIDE THROUGH SATURDAY AS
WELL AND WILL BRING IN ANOTHER SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND EARLY SATURDAY EVENING. THE COLDER AIRMASS WILL BE
SUNDAY MORNING...BUT WILL MAINLY IMPACT THE NORTH AND EAST.

16

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

POST FRONTAL CLOUDS ARE FINALLY CLEARING THE TAF SITES THIS
AFTERNOON LEAVING BREEZY NW WINDS IN THEIR WAKE.
OTHERWISE...ADDITIONAL CLOUDS AND A FEW SHOWERS ARE WORKING BACK
INTO THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE STATE AND SHOULD BE OF MINIMAL
IMPACT THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING TIMEFRAME FOR THE
NORTHERN SITES.  SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE OVER TIME...AND
JUST LEFT SOME BROKEN MID CLOUDS THROUGH THE REMAINING PERIOD.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 518 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015/

THE SURFACE COLD FRONT WAS MOVING SOUTHWARD ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA
WHERE IT JUST PASSED TROY AND OPELIKA AT THIS WRITING. A FEW
LINGERING SHOWERS STRETCHED NORTHWARD SOME 150 MILES BEHIND THE
FRONT...BUT WERE DECREASING IN COVERAGE THE PAST FEW HOURS. THE
LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY HAS THE UPPER TROUGH SWINGING THIS WAY
WITH ANOTHER IMPULSE MOVING INTO THE NORTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON. A FEW
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS FEATURE AND MENTION LIGHT RAIN.

WENT AHEAD AND ISSUED A FREEZE WARNING AND FREEZE WATCH FOR PARTS OF
NORTH CENTRAL ALABAMA THE NEXT FEW MORNINGS. THE FREEZING CONDITIONS
WILL BE FAIRLY SHORT-LIVED...ONLY A FEW HOURS...AND THE TEMPERATURES
WILL NOT BE EXTREME...ONLY 29 TO 32 DEGREES.

SEVERAL IMPULSES RIDE THROUGH THE  FLOW THIS WEEK. THIS WILL
PUSH A FEW FRONTS CLOSE TO THE REGION BUT IT APPEARS THAT THESE
FRONTS WILL NOT BLAST THROUGH HERE. THEY WILL EITHER HANG UP OR
DISSIPATE. AT ANY RATE...THIS WILL PROVIDE CENTRAL ALABAMA WITH
SEVERAL DAYS OF UNSETTLED WEATHER. TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY WARM
THROUGH THE WEEK WITH A TREND TOWARD ZONAL FLOW. THE MODELS ARE IN
FAIR AGREEMENT THROUGH THE TIME FRAME WITH THE ENSEMBLES NOT QUICK
AS AMPLIFIED WITH ANY FEATURE.

75

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR
BLOUNT-CALHOUN-CHAMBERS-CHEROKEE-CLAY-CLEBURNE-ETOWAH-MARION-
RANDOLPH-ST. CLAIR-TALLADEGA-WALKER-WINSTON.

FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 9 AM CDT SATURDAY FOR BLOUNT-CALHOUN-
CHEROKEE-CLAY-CLEBURNE-ETOWAH-RANDOLPH-ST. CLAIR-TALLADEGA-
WINSTON.

&&

$$



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