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Area Forecast Discussion

590
FXUS64 KBMX 011037
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
537 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

.DISCUSSION...

LOOKING AT THE BIG PICTURE...UPPER LEVEL RIDGING CONTINUES ACROSS
THE SOUTHEAST CONUS WITH A STRONG SHORTWAVE PUSHING EASTWARD
ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND MIDWEST. CLOSER TO HOME...THE
REMNANTS OF THE VORTICITY/TROUGH EXITING TO THE NORTHEAST IS
PRODUCING SOME HIGH CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE STATE AS WELL AS A FEW
LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS NE AL. AT THE SFC...SOME PATCHES OF FOG IS
BEING OBSERVED IN AREAS WHERE THERE IS LESS CLOUD COVER. ABUNDANT
MOISTURE COMBINED WITH LIFT WILL ALLOW FOR SOME ISOLATED
SHOWERS/STORMS ACROSS EAST CENTRAL ALABAMA PRIMARILY DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS TODAY.

THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD SLIGHTLY WESTWARD INTO MID WEEK BUT
SMALL WEAKNESSES WITHIN THE RIDGE WILL ALLOW FOR DIURNAL
CONVECTION EACH DAY. MODELS DEPICT A WEAK SFC BOUNDARY PUSHING
SOUTHWARD INTO TN/KY BY TUESDAY NIGHT BEFORE STALLING. THIS
FEATURE SHOULDN`T HAVE MUCH IF ANY IMPACT ACROSS OUR AREA.
THEREFORE HAVE MAINTAINED CLIMO POPS OF 20-30 PERCENT EACH
AFTERNOON AND EVENING THRU MUCH OF THE WORK WEEK. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE LOW/MID
90S.

CONVECTIVE COVERAGE LOOKS TO BE A BIT BETTER OVER THE WEEKEND AS
ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS PROGGED TO SLIDE SOUTHWARD INTO THE
REGION. UNSURE OF JUST HOW FAR SOUTH THE BOUNDARY WILL PUSH BUT IT
SHOULD BE CLOSE ENOUGH TO HELP AID IN INCREASING SHOWER/STORM
COVERAGE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. SFC FLOW LOOKS TO BECOME NORTHERLY
DURING THIS TIME WHICH WILL HELP BRING TEMPS BACK DOWN NEAR NORMAL.

19

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF DISCUSSION.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD. PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA DURING
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS TONIGHT...BUT NO WIDESPREAD VIS REDUCTIONS ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS ANY OF THE TERMINAL LOCATIONS AT THIS TIME.
ISOLATED CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE MONDAY AFTERNOON...BUT IS NOT
EXPECTED TO BE WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO INCLUDE VCTS IN THE TAF. WINDS
WILL PREVAIL FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE PERIOD.

56/GDG

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     93  70  93  68  92 /  20  10  20  20  30
ANNISTON    93  71  92  70  94 /  20  10  20  20  30
BIRMINGHAM  93  75  93  74  94 /  20  10  20  20  30
TUSCALOOSA  95  73  94  72  95 /  10  10  20  20  30
CALERA      93  73  93  72  94 /  20  10  20  20  30
AUBURN      93  72  93  72  93 /  20  10  20  20  30
MONTGOMERY  95  73  95  73  96 /  20  10  20  20  30
TROY        94  71  93  71  94 /  20  10  20  20  30

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$







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