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Area Forecast Discussion

322
FXUS64 KBMX 240822
AFDBMX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
322 AM CDT SAT SEP 24 2016

.SHORT TERM...

Today and Tonight.

Record high temperatures were set across the area on Friday due to a
large ridge over the southern states and abnormally dry soil
conditions. Looking at 1000-850mb thickness forecasts for today,
values are similar to yesterday, and see no reason to go with cooler
temperatures today than on Friday. The only good news is that
afternoon humidity levels will be low due to a deep mixing layer.
Several of the meso-scale models are depicting isolated afternoon
showers across the southern counties, and will keep these in the
forecast. Skies will clear tonight with warm temperatures.

58/rose

.LONG TERM...

Sunday through Saturday.

Upper low currently over southern Georgia retrogrades back over
central Alabama on Sunday giving some slight chances of rain over
our southern counties along and south of the I-85 corridor. Models
have come into better agreement in the last several runs in
regards to the approaching front, which is set to move through the
region on Monday and Tuesday. The moisture return ahead of the
front is limited, and this, coupled with weaker sfc convergence
along the frontal boundary, will lead to more scattered
showers/storms throughout the day on Monday. Rain chances expected
to decrease in coverage by Monday night as the front moves
southeastward. Some lingering showers are possible south of the
I-85 corridor overnight Monday into early Tuesday morning before
the front moves south of the area ending the chances of rain. For
the rest of the week, ridging builds in to the region keeping rain
chances low. Temperatures expected cool back to near normal with
highs in the 80s.

25/Owen

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF Discussion.

VFR conditions will continue for the next 24 hours and beyond as a
dry air mass remains in place. Similar to previous days, a stray
shower will be possible Saturday afternoon, but coverage will be
far too isolated to mention in the TAFs. Winds will be light
north-northeasterly.

32/Davis


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Slight chance of isolated showers/storms on Sunday. A front with
better rain chances will move through on Monday into Tuesday
morning. Beginning Tuesday afternoon, drier weather returns for
the remainder of the week. No fire weather concerns are
anticipated.

25/Owen

&&

.CLIMATE...

Record Highs for Saturday September 24th:

Birmingham  99   1931
Tuscaloosa  97   1961
Anniston    96   1931
Montgomery  98   1931


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden     91  67  92  68  89 /   0   0  10  10  30
Anniston    91  68  92  69  89 /   0   0  10  10  30
Birmingham  93  71  93  71  90 /  10   0  10  10  30
Tuscaloosa  95  70  95  70  91 /  10   0  10  10  30
Calera      93  70  93  69  90 /  10   0  10  10  30
Auburn      92  70  91  70  88 /  10  10  10  10  30
Montgomery  94  71  94  71  92 /  10  10  20  10  30
Troy        93  69  91  69  88 /  10  10  20  10  30

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$



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