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Area Forecast Discussion

424
FXUS64 KBMX 120903
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
303 AM CST FRI FEB 12 2016

.DISCUSSION...

SHORT TERM (TODAY AND TONIGHT)...

SURFACE RIDGING OVER THE GULF IS WEAKENING AND WILL GIVE WAY IN
RESPONSE TO A STRONG LARGE ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE CENTER THAT
WILL SINK SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OUT OF SASKATCHEWAN AND MANITOBA CANADA
INTO MINNESOTA THROUGH TONIGHT. THIS WILL IN TURN CLEAR THE FRONT
STALLED AND DRAPED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN FRINGES OF THE CWA AND
TOWARD THE NORTHERN GULF BY SATURDAY 12Z. THE UPPER PATTEN SHOWS
THE MAIN UPPER LOW WELL TO THE NORTH OVER NORTHERN ONTARIO MOVING
TOWARD QUEBEC...WITH TIGHT GRADIENTS ACROSS EASTERN CONUS AND A
PROGRESSIVE PATTERN TO USHER THE SURFACE RIDGE SOUTHWARD INTO
EASTERN CONUS. IT ALSO SHOWS AN UPPER VORT MAX MOVING SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS TENNESSEE...FAR NORTHEAST
ALABAMA...NORTHERN GEORGIA AND INTO SOUTH CAROLINA TODAY. WITH
ONLY SHALLOW MOISTURE... EXTRA CLOUD COVER IS ALL WE SHOULD SEE
OVER CENTRAL ALABAMA TODAY WITH RAIN CHANCES EXPECTED TO REMAIN
WELL TO THE NORTH AND EAST OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF TENNESSEE...
NORTHEAST GEORGIA AND INTO THE CAROLINAS. MILD TEMPERATURES WILL
BE NOTED FOR ONE MORE DAY WHILE THE SYSTEM PROGRESSES SOUTHWARD...
WITH DRIER AND COLDER AIR FILTERING INTO THE STATE TONIGHT.

08/MNK

LONG TERM (SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...

AN ARCTIC FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL LEAD TO COLD CONDITIONS ON SATURDAY
PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE NORTH. THE BRUNT OF THIS AIRMASS WILL BE
FELT TO OUR EAST WITH MORE OF A SHALLOW COLD ADVECTION INTO
ALABAMA. STILL...HIGHS ON SATURDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE ABOUT 20
DEGREES COLDER THAN ON FRIDAY...WITH WIDESPREAD LOW TO MID 20S
FOR SUNDAY MORNING.

HEIGHT FALLS WILL OCCUR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS A TROUGH TAKES SHAPE
TO OUR WEST. MODELS HAVE TRENDED MUCH MORE AMPLIFIED WITH THIS
SYSTEM...AND SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL BLAST WARMER AIR ACROSS
THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT. DUE TO ANTECEDENT LOW-LEVEL DRY AIR...ICE
PELLETS MAY MIX WITH LIGHT RAIN ACROSS THE NORTH AT THE ONSET OF
THE PRECIP LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND SUNDAY NIGHT. NO IMPACTS ARE
EXPECTED SINCE SURFACE TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN WELL ABOVE FREEZING.
MODELS ARE EXPECTING THE TROUGH TO BECOME DYNAMIC ENOUGH FOR
STRONG SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS. THIS SURFACE LOW IS EXPECTED TO FORM
TO OUR WEST AND TRACK ACROSS THE CWA ON MONDAY. COLD 500-300 MB
TEMPS INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDER AS A WARM SECTOR TRIES TO
MOVE INTO THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. THESE VERY COLD
TEMPERATURES ALOFT MAY ACTUALLY SUPPORT A NON-ZERO SEVERE THREAT
NEAR THE GULF COAST...AND WILL KEEP AN EYE ON THIS IN CASE HIGHER
DEWPOINTS TREND FARTHER INLAND.

WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOULD CLEAR OUT MONDAY NIGHT WITH A RETURN TO DRY
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

87/GRANTHAM

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF DISCUSSION.

LOW CLOUDS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS SOUTHERN ALABAMA LATE THIS
EVENING ALONG A STALLED SURFACE FRONT. THOSE LOW CLOUDS ARE
FORECAST TO EXPAND ACROSS KTOI OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...THEN
NORTHWARD TO KMGM BY SUNRISE ON FRIDAY. HAVE ADDED IN IFR CIGS AT
KTOI AND MVFR AT KMGM THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS THEN QUICKLY
MIXING OUT THROUGH 15Z. SURFACE WINDS WILL REMAIN CALM OR LIGHT
AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT...BECOMING NORTHWESTERLY DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS ON FRIDAY.

56/GDG

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. RH VALUES
SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE 30 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON. A MUCH DRIER
AIRMASS WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION ON SATURDAY WITH DEW POINTS IN
THE SINGLE DIGITS AND BRISK NORTHERLY WINDS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     57  27  38  21  48 /  10   0   0   0  20
ANNISTON    59  28  40  23  50 /   0   0   0   0  10
BIRMINGHAM  60  28  41  24  50 /   0   0   0   0  10
TUSCALOOSA  62  31  44  24  53 /   0   0   0   0  10
CALERA      62  31  43  25  52 /   0   0   0   0  10
AUBURN      64  32  45  26  51 /   0   0   0   0   0
MONTGOMERY  67  35  49  27  56 /   0   0   0   0   0
TROY        67  36  50  25  56 /  10   0   0   0   0

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$



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