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Area Forecast Discussion

489
FXUS64 KBMX 310401
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1101 PM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 06Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

LONGWAVE TROUGH THAT IS RESPONSIBLE FOR THE COOLER TEMPERATURES
REMAINS ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS TONIGHT. A SHORTWAVE ROTATING
THROUGH THE TROUGH HAS RESULTED IN RAIN AND STORMS WELL TO OUR
WEST ACROSS ARKANSAS AND OKLAHOMA. THIS ACTIVITY WILL MOVE SLOWLY
TO THE SOUTHEAST...REMAINING WELL WEST OF THE AREA TONIGHT. HIGH
CLOUDS AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM HAVE SPREAD ACROSS CENTRAL
ALABAMA...AND HAVE SLOWED THE POST SUNSET COOLING. TEMPERATURES
REMAIN IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S.

HAVE ADJUSTED TEMP TRENDS OVERNIGHT...WHICH HAS BROUGHT OVERNIGHT
LOWS UP A COUPLE DEGREES. HAVE UPDATED THE CLIMATE SECTION
BELOW...BUT WITH HIGH CLOUDS INCREASING IT WILL BE DIFFICULT TO
BREAK RECORDS AGAIN TONIGHT.

LATEST MODEL RUNS ARE SHOWING THE POSSIBILITY OF LOW LIFT
TOMORROW AFTERNOON ACROSS THE FAR EAST. LIFT IS VERY WEAK
THOUGH...AND WILL NOT BE MENTIONING ANY MEASURABLE RAINFALL AT
THIS TIME.

14


&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF DISCUSSION.

VRF CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF. CIRRUS CONTINUES TO SPILL OVER THE
AREA TONIGHT. WINDS WILL BE VERY LIGHT TONIGHT AND A LIGHT NORTH TO
NORTHEAST WIND IS EXPECTED TOMORROW. LOOK FOR CLOUDS TO GRADUALLY
BUILD DOWN TOMORROW WITH SOME CEILINGS OF 10K POSSIBLE LATE IN
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. SOME MODELS ARE SHOWING SOME LIGHT
RAIN POSSIBLE NEAR ANB LATE AFTERNOON AS AN EASTERLY WAVE BRINGS
IN SLIGHTLY HIGHER MOISTURE LEVELS ACROSS EASTERN ALABAMA. AT THIS
TIME WILL NOT MENTION ANY RAIN IN THE ANB TAF BUT BRING THE
CEILINGS DOWN TO 5K.

88

&&

.CLIMATE...

WITH HIGH CLOUDS MOVING ACROSS THE AREA...IT WILL BE DIFFICULT TO
BREAK RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES FOR A SECOND NIGHT IN A ROW ACROSS
CENTRAL ALABAMA. BELOW IS THE UPDATED FORECAST FOR TONIGHT AND
THE CURRENT RECORD LOW FOR JULY 31. ANNISTON STANDS THE BEST
CHANCE TO BREAK THE RECORD AS CIRRUS WILL BE THINNER ACROSS THE
EAST.

               JULY 31    CURRENT
SITE        FORECAST LOW  RECORD    YEAR
----------  ------------  --------  ----
ANNISTON         64          60     1965
BIRMINGHAM       68          59     1965
MONTGOMERY       65          62     1936
TUSCALOOSA       66          62     1994*

* RECORDS FOR TUSCALOOSA THAT APPEAR IN CURRENT DATABASES ON-LINE
HAVE SPORADIC DATA MISSING FROM 1994 TO 1999. HOWEVER SOME DATA FOR
SPECIFIC DAYS HAVE BEEN IMPORTED INTO OUR CLIMATE PROGRAM OVER THE
PAST SEVERAL YEARS. THIS DATA IS ACCURATE BUT IS CURRENTLY
UNAVAILABLE ON-LINE. WE APOLOGIZE FOR ANY DISCREPANCIES AND ARE
WORKING TO RESOLVE THE ISSUE AS SOON AS POSSIBLE.

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$









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