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Area Forecast Discussion

377
FXUS64 KBMX 300233
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
933 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.UPDATE...
EVENING UPDATE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

WITH THE HELP OF SHORT-RANGE MODELS...MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO
THE POPS FOR TONIGHT TO TIGHTEN THE GRADIENT NEAR I-20. EXPECTING
GOOD ENOUGH COVERAGE WITH THE BAND OF SHOWERS ALONG THE FRONT TO
RAISE POPS TO 90 PERCENT ACROSS THE NORTH. ALSO RAISED OVERNIGHT
LOWS AND DEWPOINTS AREA-WIDE WITH SOUTHERLY SURFACE WINDS EXPECTED
TO INCREASE AHEAD OF THE FRONT.

87/GRANTHAM

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION.

MAIN THEME OF TAFS CONTINUE WITH APPROACHING FRONT LATE
TONIGHT/EARLY TOMORROW. HOWEVER...MADE SLIGHT CHANGES TO TAFS
BASED ON LATEST MODEL TIMING OF A RELATIVELY NARROW SYSTEM...WITH
VFR EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT LEAST UNTIL 06Z EVEN AT NORTHERN SITES.
SIMILARLY DELAYED ONSET OF -RA/TSTMS BY A FEW HOURS...AND TRIED TO
COMPRESS THE TIME BELOW VFR DUE TO NARROWNESS OF FEATURE. ALTHOUGH
TAF LENGTH PRECLUDES IT...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO WORK IN FROM N
TO S AFTER 18Z TOMORROW. MAINTAINED CONCEPT OF LIMITED PRECIP AT
MGM AND TOI AS WEAKENED FRONT PASSES THROUGH...BUT NOT AS
CONFIDENT WITH THAT ASPECT OF THE TAFS THERE AND MAY NEED TO ADD
MORE SIGNIFICANT PRECIP AND VIS RESTRICTIONS LATER.

GENERALLY LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL VEER AND THEN SHIFT TO
NORTHWESTERLY BEHIND THE FRONT AS IT PASSES.

JD/02

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 259 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015/

WELL THE ADVERTISED COLD FRONT IS ON ITS WAY AND WILL MAKE IT INTO
THE AREA AFTER 9PM TONIGHT WITH BEST CHANCES OF RAIN AND SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE BEST DYNAMICS REMAIN WELL NORTH
OF THE AREA...SO NOT EXPECTING ANY SEVERE WEATHER WITH THE FRONT
ITSELF. AS THE SYSTEM WORKS IN TO THE AREA IT WILL BEGIN TO SLOW
AND BECOME LESS ORGANIZED WITH THE RAIN. SO WHILE THERE IS
DEFINITE POPS FOR TONIGHT...LOOKS LIKE ONLY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
STORMS ON MONDAY MORNING.

BY MONDAY AFTERNOON THE FRONT WILL BE IN THE SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF
THE AREA. THERE IS STILL A SMALL CHANCE AT SEEING SOME ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON...SO CONTINUED WITH THAT FOR THE
SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE AREA. IF A STORM CAN STAY TOGETHER LONG
ENOUGH IN THE AFTERNOON...THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR THE STORM TO
PRODUCE SOME HAIL...THUS A MARGINAL RISK IS IN PLACE ACROSS THE
FAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES. THINKING AT THIS POINT JUST A FEW STRONG
STORMS ARE POSSIBLE AND HAVE CONTINUED TO LEAVE OUT OF THE HWO IN
REGARDS TO ANY WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER.

THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE AREA FOR
MUCH OF THIS WEEK...AS THE MAIN DYNAMICS LEAVE IT BEHIND. THIS IS
OF COURSE TYPICAL OF THIS TIME OF THE YEAR. WENT WITH ABOVE
NORMAL POPS FOR THE WEEK ALONG WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES...70S AND
80S.

THE NEXT BIG COLD FRONT WILL WORK CLOSE TO THE AREA OVERNIGHT
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. NOTHING STANDS OUT OF THE ORDINARY
WITH THIS FRONT EITHER...BUT IT WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO GET THE
AREA MAYBE A DAY OR TWO OF CLEARING BEFORE THE SOUTHERLY FLOW
LIFTS THE FRONT BACK NORTHWARD NEXT SUNDAY NIGHT MONDAY.

16

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     48  69  41  71  51 /  90  60  10  40  30
ANNISTON    50  69  44  74  54 /  70  60  10  40  30
BIRMINGHAM  54  70  48  74  56 /  90  60  10  40  30
TUSCALOOSA  57  73  52  75  57 /  70  50  10  40  30
CALERA      52  71  50  74  58 /  50  60  10  40  30
AUBURN      48  72  49  74  56 /  10  60  20  40  30
MONTGOMERY  53  76  55  78  59 /  10  50  20  40  30
TROY        50  76  54  79  59 /  10  50  20  40  30

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$



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