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Area Forecast Discussion

293
FXUS64 KBMX 211126
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
626 AM CDT MON JUL 21 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 12Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

WEAK UPPER LOW AND SURFACE REFLECTION WILL KEEP ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTORMS AROUND THROUGH THE  AFTERNOON. BEST
CHANCES IN THE EAST BASED ON THE POSITIONING OF THOSE FEATURES.
HIGHS MID 80S TO LOWER 90S TODAY. LOTS OF LOWER CLOUDS AND PATCHY
FOG THIS MORNING.

OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS THE UPPER LOW WILL RETROGRADE
SLIGHTLY TO THE SOUTHWEST AND SHOULD OPEN US UP FOR BETTER
COVERAGE TUESDAY AFTERNOON. BUMPED POPS UP THAT DAY TO A HIGHER
CHANCE CATEGORY. WEDNESDAY IS SORT OF A WASH. WE ARE STILL IN A
GENERAL TROUGH POSITION WITH UPPER RIDGING REALLY BUILDING OVER
THE WESTERN CONUS...BUT NO SIGNIFICANT LIFTING FEATURES TO KEY ON
SO MORE OR LESS CLIMATE TYPE RAIN CHANCES FOR THAT DAY AIDED BY
MESOSCALE BOUNDARIES. TEMPERATURES TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AT OR
SLIGHTLY BELOW CLIMATE AVERAGES.

WITH THE RIDGE BUILDING OUT WEST...THERE IS AN OPPORTUNITY TO SEE
A COUPLE OF IMPULSES DIVE SOUTHWARD TOWARD THE REGION AND IT LOOKS
LIKE ONE OF THOSE MIGHT BE IN THE WEDNESDAY NIGHT OR THURSDAY
TIME-FRAME. ITS ALWAYS DIFFICULT TO TRY AND TIME THOSE FEATURES
BUT POPS A LITTLE BIT HIGHER ON THURSDAY. KEPT IT IN THE CHANCE
RANGE FOR NOW BUT MIGHT BUMP THOSE UP TO LIKELY IF EVERYTHING
STAYS ON TRACK THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

WESTERN RIDGING THE DOMINANT FEATURE IN THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN AS
WE MOVE INTO THE WEEKEND. FROM FRIDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK...THE AREA REMAINS UNDER A GENERAL TROUGH WITH THE EBB AND
FLOW OF THE WESTERN RIDGE POSSIBLY SENDING AN IMPULSE OR TWO
TOWARDS THE DEEP SOUTH. THERE COULD BE A STRONG SURFACE FRONT
MIXED IN THERE AT SOME POINT...MOST LIKELY AT THE TAIL END OF THE
FORECAST...THAT COULD SEND SOME RELATIVELY COOL TEMPERATURES DOWN
FROM CANADA. WILL KEEP THE WEEKEND PERIOD NEAR CLIMATOLOGY AND
WATCH THE TRENDS THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

88


&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF DISCUSSION.

ABUNDANT MOISTURE HAS RESULTED IN FOG AND LOW CLOUDS ACROSS THE
AREA. THE LOWEST VIS AND CIGS HAVE BEEN AT EET AND ANB...WITH MGM
AND TOI JUST NOW GETTING INTO THE ACT. THIS WILL BE SHORT LIVED
THIS MORNING AND A RETURN TO VFR IS EXPECTED AFTER 15Z. BEST RAIN
CHANCES WILL BE AT ANB...MGM AND TOI TODAY SO PUT VCSH IN AT THESE
SITES. ISOLATED CONVECTION POSSIBLE NOT NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE
AT THE OTHER SITES. TONIGHT...WILL GO WITH PERSISTENCE AND THE
DEVELOPMENT OF LOW CLOUDS/FOG AT THE SAME AREAS AS THE PREVIOUS
NIGHTS. FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE GFS LAMP FORECAST. LOW CONFIDENCE
TONIGHT AS THIS IS THE ONLY MODEL GOING LOW. AMENDMENTS AS NEEDED
FOR ANY CONVECTION TODAY.

16

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$








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