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Area Forecast Discussion

FXUS64 KBMX 290918

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
418 AM CDT MON AUG 29 2016

Today and Tonight.

Currently mostly clear skies over Central Alabama, as an upper
level ridge is centered over Indiana and Kentucky, keeping a
fairly calm weather pattern over the region. Today`s forecast
projects that a small vorticity pocket, supported by slight jet
divergence, will carve a weakness in the ridge starting in Georgia
andthen drop into the eastern portion of Central Alabama this
afternoon. This combined with the easterly fetch from the
Atlantic, will produce a few isolated showers primarily over the
southeast where the better lapse rates are also located. There is
a chance of a stray storm or two as model soundings project CAPE
values reaching at most 1600 J/kg. Today`s highs will be in the
90s and tonight`s lows are expected to drop to the 70s. Winds
this morning will begin to pick up as the pressure gradient begins
to tighten due to tropical depression 09 trying to push westward.
After sunset, convection as a whole will greatly diminish as lapse
rates and moisture begin to drop off. Winds will follow suit.



As we work into Wednesday, eyes will still be focused along the
souther portion of the Gulf of Mexico as we will continue to monitor
the system and the eventual path. Models are beginning to come in
line with each and confidence is increasing that there will be only
minimal impacts to Central Alabama at best given the current
forecast and expected track of the system. By Wednesday
evening/Thursday morning, the system should begin to work into the
Big Bend of Florida. This will keep Central Alabama on the drier
side of the system through the end of the week. Can not rule out an
isolated shower/storm each afternoon but coverage will be minimal.

On Friday, an easterly flow may bring a wave of energy into the area
and could increase the rain chances for Saturday across the southern
portions of the area. A small chance exist on Sunday as well but
overall coverage will be limited to south of US 80. So will not
mention at this time given the lack of coverage and low confidence.
Otherwise, looks like a fairly normal end of August/start of
September weather.



06Z TAF Discussion.

High clouds stream across the area tonight with mid level cigs near
MGM and TOI as well. An isolated shower or two could linger across
northwest areas, but will not affect terminals. Surface winds
tonight will range from calm to very light, with an ~easterly
component for any breezes.

VFR conditions prevail tomorrow. Scattered cumulus comes forth
around mid-day Monday, with renewed isolated shower/storm cells
afternoon to early-evening. Again, coverage is expected to be on the
spotty/isolated side, so I`ve not included mentions in the TAFs at
this time. Any impacts will become more apparent heading into Monday
afternoon. Surface winds will increase through the morning hours,
and average northeasterly to easterly around 6-11 knots through the
day. Some sporadic gusts around 15-knots are possible as well.




Generally dry conditions with above average temperatures will
continue thru midweek, with only isolated afternoon storms each
day. Critical fire weather conditions are not expected.


Gadsden     92  70  91  71  92 /  20  10  10  10  10
Anniston    91  71  91  73  92 /  20  10  20  10  20
Birmingham  93  73  93  74  94 /  20  10  10  10  10
Tuscaloosa  94  74  94  74  95 /  10  10  10  10  10
Calera      92  73  92  74  93 /  20  10  10  10  10
Auburn      91  73  90  73  92 /  30  20  20  20  20
Montgomery  94  74  94  75  95 /  30  20  20  10  20
Troy        92  73  92  73  93 /  30  20  20  20  20





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