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Area Forecast Discussion

015
FXUS64 KBMX 301734
AFDBMX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
1234 PM CDT THU JUN 30 2016

.UPDATE...
Midday Forecast Update & For 18Z Aviation.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

The driest air that we`ve seen in quite a while has pushed
southward over Central Alabama, thanks to a surface front that
moved southward over the last two days. That front is in the
process of stalling out over south Alabama, currently stretching
from just south of Demopolis eastward to Alexander City. South of
the front, very humid conditions continue for Montgomery, Troy,
Eufaula, and Phenix City. We`ll see additional showers and storms
developing generally along and south of the I-85 corridor today,
with multiple mesoscale boundaries present on visible satellite at
sunrise this morning. Speaking of boundaries, there were virtually
none to speak of across the rest of the state due to the dry air
in place. The 12Z KBMX sounding this morning was very dry, with
PWATS of 1.10 inches. In terms of sounding climatology, that`s
well below normal for this time of the year.

So, for the forecast, have removed all mention of PoPs across the
northern two-thirds of the state due to the dry, stable air and
lack of mesoscale boundaries to trigger any convection. Have kept
chance PoPs across the far southern counties, where the most
convection will be present. High temperatures were generally
unchanged from the previous forecast, with a few spots maybe a tad
cooler today. Interesting to note, however, the high-res guidance
(HRRR & WRFARW) is indicating that mixing will be able to occur
this afternoon, with 40s dewpoints possible in many locations. I
don`t think we`ll see as much mixing as those models are
indicating, but have already seen Huntsville and Decatur to our
north mix out to upper 40s dewpoints as of noon. Huntsville also
rose to 87 degrees due to the mixing. We`ll keep an eye on those
trends through the afternoon, as it may cause a few spots to
actually be warmer than forecast this afternoon.

56/GDG

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF Discussion.

VFR conditions are expected through the forecast period. With
convection expected more to the south through the afternoon today,
have removed VCTS in the TAF for KMGM at this time. Convection is
already forming around KTOI, and that terminal will have VCTS
through the rest of the day and into the early afternoon. VFR
conditions will continue for all terminals through the overnight
hours. All sites other than KMGM and KTOI will observe light
northerly surface winds today, while those southern sites will see
variable to southerly winds south of a surface front.

56/GDG

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Isolated to scattered shower and thunderstorm activity will
remain possible today, mainly across the southeast half of the
state. Drier and less humid conditions are expected across the
northwest. Rain chances become a little better Sunday into the
beginning of next week and more diurnally influenced. No fire
weather concerns are expected at this time.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden     64  92  69  93  72 /  10  10  10  20  10
Anniston    63  92  70  93  72 /  10  10  10  20  10
Birmingham  68  93  72  94  75 /  10  10  10  10  10
Tuscaloosa  68  94  72  95  74 /  10  10  10  10  10
Calera      68  93  72  94  74 /  10  10  10  10  10
Auburn      72  91  73  93  74 /  30  20  10  20  10
Montgomery  73  95  73  96  75 /  30  20  10  10  10
Troy        72  92  73  93  74 /  50  20  10  20  10

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$



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