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Area Forecast Discussion

FXUS64 KBMX 290720

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
220 AM CDT SUN MAY 29 2016


No real changes are expected with this forecast package, as the
flow tries to turn a bit more northwest today bringing some
limited drier air to the state. The extent of the drying further
east will be in question due to the tropical system along the East
Coast, so any remnant moisture convergence should be across the
eastern sections of the CWA. Left a slight chance of a
thunderstorm or two east of I65, however, coverage is expected to
be minimal.

As the week continues, showers and thunderstorms will be mainly
driven with the typical summer afternoon diurnal pattern,
although with the upper level ridging building back overhead,
coverage will remain only isolated to scattered. Later in the
work week, that pattern looks to relax as a remnant cold front
tries to move in from the northwest, which would increase rain
chances starting on Thursday or Friday. This appears to be the
next possibility to a more widespread rain event for much of the



06Z TAF Discussion.

Late night satellite and radar show the disappearance of the
earlier rain showers from yesterday evening. Winds are beginning
to become more variable and high to mid clouds are lingering from
the influence of the short wave trough to the west. VFR conditions
are expected to remain until the early morning hours. However MVFR
conditions have been added primarily to the eastern counties, as
Bonnie`s movement to the northeast has slowed a bit. This will
give rise to a brief easterly wind. This new wind component plus
the increase in dew points from yesterday evening`s sea breeze may
allow the chance of brief haze or fog in during the sunrise time
frame. This will drop visiby`s slightly. Quickly after sunrise,
winds will then shift again, this time to the northwest as Bonnie
begins to come under the upper level trough`s influence and track
to the northeast. Clearing sky conditions and increased visiby`s
are expected to begin an hour or two after sunrise. VFR conditions
are expected for the rest of the day tomorrow.




Look for only low to minimal rain chances for the remainder of the
weekend into the first half of this week. Temperatures are
expected to remain above normal through much of the week. There
are no fire weather concerns at this time.



Gadsden     88  64  89  64  89 /  20  10  20  10  20
Anniston    88  66  88  66  89 /  20  10  20  10  20
Birmingham  89  69  90  68  91 /  20  10  20  10  20
Tuscaloosa  90  68  91  69  91 /  20  10  20  10  20
Calera      88  68  90  68  91 /  20  10  20  10  20
Auburn      87  68  88  68  90 /  20  10  20  10  20
Montgomery  90  69  92  68  93 /  20  10  20  10  20
Troy        90  68  92  69  93 /  20  10  20  10  20





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