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Area Forecast Discussion

505
FXUS64 KBMX 291001
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
501 AM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.DISCUSSION...

WHAT A DIFFERENCE A DAY MAKES! WE ARE SOME 7-14 DEGREES COOLER
THAN LAST NIGHT AT THIS TIME. THIS CHANGE IS THANKS TO A COLD
FRONT THAT MOVED THROUGH ON MONDAY WHICH IS NOW NEAR THE COAST.
ALL PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT IS NOW OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS. LOOK FOR SOME NICE WEATHER FOR TODAY INTO
WEDNESDAY WITH EXPECTED HIGHS SOME 5-7 DEGREES BELOW THE NORM...
AND OVERNIGHT LOWS SOME 7-10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. WE WILL
DEFINITELY BE IN DANGER OF BREAKING SOME RECORD LOW TEMPS FOR
WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE SURFACE RIDGE IS SETTLING OVER THE CENTRAL
PLAINS NOW AND WILL LIKELY NUDGE A LITTLE FURTHER TO THE
SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE DEEP SOUTH TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.

BY THURSDAY...LOOK FOR THE SURFACE RIDGE TO WEAKEN AND A SURFACE
LOW ALONG THE OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN FLORIDA TO BEGIN TO PUSH BACK
INTO ALABAMA AS WE MOVE INTO THE WEEKEND INTO THE FIRST PART OF
NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES SHOULD RESPOND BY GOING BACK UP IN
AS THE COOLER FLOW IS CUT OFF...BUT SHOULD NOT BE TOO HIGH AS
RAIN CHANCES ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO RISE WITH INCREASED CLOUD COVER
KEEPING TEMPS IN CHECK AS WELL AS THE LOW RETROGRADES AND
INTERACTS WITH UPPER SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH THE BASE INITIALLY
OF THE STAGNANT LOW PRESSURE TROUGH OVER EASTERN CANADA. THE
TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO DIG FURTHER AS WE PROGRESS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY LOOKS TO BE THE WETTEST TIME
FRAME IN OUR FORECAST.

THE MAIN UPPER LOW WEAKENS AND PULLS OFF THE EASTERN CANADIAN
COAST INTO THE ATLANTIC SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...BUT LEAVES A
PIECE OF ENERGY BEHIND IT WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE DEEP
SOUTH FOR MONDAY. THIS WILL MOST LIKELY WEAKEN AS WE MOVE INTO
TUESDAY WITHOUT THE HELP OF THE MAIN TROUGH TO ENHANCE IT AND THE
UPPER OVERALL FLOW BECOMES WEAK. SO...WE SHOULD BEGIN TO
TRANSITION BACK TO SUMMER TIME DIURNALLY INFLUENCED CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY WITH TEMPERATURES ALSO CREEPING BACK UP FOR THE FIRST
HALF OF NEXT WEEK.

08/MK

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF DISCUSSION.

A COOL AND DRY AIR MASS WILL LEAVE THE FORECAST VFR THROUGH THE
PERIOD. AS THE ATMOSPHERE MIXES ON TUESDAY...A FEW WIND GUSTS OF 15
TO 20 KTS FROM THE NORTHWEST ARE POSSIBLE. WINDS WILL DIMINISH SOME
WITH SUNSET TUESDAY EVENING.

14

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     81  58  84  64  85 /   0   0   0  10  20
ANNISTON    82  57  84  63  85 /   0   0   0  10  20
BIRMINGHAM  83  59  84  64  85 /   0   0   0  10  20
TUSCALOOSA  85  60  85  65  85 /   0   0   0  10  30
CALERA      84  60  85  65  86 /   0   0   0  10  20
AUBURN      86  60  86  64  88 /   0   0   0   0  10
MONTGOMERY  88  61  88  65  89 /   0   0   0  10  10
TROY        88  61  87  64  89 /   0   0   0   0  10

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

08/14





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