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Area Forecast Discussion

673
FXUS64 KBMX 031800 AAA
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
100 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

.UPDATE...
AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

CENTRAL ALABAMA REMAINS ON THE DRIER WEST SIDE OF THE MID LEVEL
TROUGH AXIS TODAY...WITH ONLY WEAK SURFACE TROUGHING STRETCHING
ACROSS SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE AREA. CONVECTIVE COVERAGE WILL BE
LIMITED TODAY WITH ONLY ONE OR TWO STORMS POSSIBLE DUE TO LIMITED
AVAILABLE MOISTURE. BEST CHANCE WOULD BE NEAR THE WEAK SURFACE
TROUGHING. HOWEVER...MOST AREAS WILL REMAIN DRY....AND WARM.
TEMPERATURES WILL REACH INTO THE MID 90S AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON. DUE
TO THE HIGHER DEWPOINTS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST...HEAT INDICES COULD
RISE ABOVE 100F FOR A FEW HOURS THIS AFTERNOON.

14

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. LIGHT MVFR
FOG IS POSSIBLE EARLY TUESDAY MORNING AT TOI...WHERE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE IS SLIGHTLY HIGHER. WINDS WILL VARY FROM THE NORTHEAST TO
NORTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON AS A WEAK FRONTAL REMAINS ACROSS SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE AREA. WINDS UP TO 8 KTS ARE POSSIBLE AT TIMES BEFORE
DIMINISHING WITH SUNSET.

14

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL FALL BELOW 30 PERCENT FOR SEVERAL
HOURS THIS AFTERNOON. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL SLOWLY INCREASE
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH A RETURN OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 629 AM CDT MON AUG 3 2015/

A STALLED OUT SURFACE FRONT WAS LOCATED ACROSS SOUTHEAST ALABAMA
BETWEEN MONTGOMERY AND TROY. PATCHY FOG HAS FORMED AT TROY WHERE
DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE LOWER 70S. THE AIR MASS ACROSS
CENTRAL ALABAMA IS STILL WELL BELOW SEASONAL PRECIPITABLE WATER
NORMALS WITH CURRENT VALUES LESS THAN 1.25 INCHES. CENTRAL ALABAMA
WILL REMAIN ON THE BOTTOM SIDE OF A BROAD UPPER TROF OVER THE
EASTERN UNITED STATES THROUGH TUESDAY...AND MOISTURE WILL BE TOO
LIMITED FOR CONVECTION. WARMER LOW LEVEL AIR TO THE WEST OF
ALABAMA WILL SHIFT EASTWARD THE NEXT FEW DAYS AND HIGHS ON
TUESDAY WILL LIKELY BE THE WARMEST VALUES OF THE WEEK. SOME
PLACES ACROSS WEST ALABAMA COULD TOP 100 DEGREES. BY WEDNESDAY A
SHORT WAVE TROF WILL PUSH INTO THE MIDWEST STATES AND PULL DEEPER
MOISTURE INTO ALABAMA. TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE ABOVE NORMAL ON
WEDNESDAY...AND THE HEATING OF THE DAY WILL TRIGGER SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS. BY THURSDAY THE SHORT WAVE TROF WILL BE MOVING
THROUGH THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION. THE TAIL END OF THE
SHORT WAVE TROF WILL TRIGGER SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS ALABAMA. RAIN CHANCES WILL LIKELY BE RAISED
IF MODELS CONTINUE TO AGREE ON TIMING OF THIS SHORT WAVE TROF IN
FUTURE MODEL RUNS.

NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL ALLOW SEVERAL MORE IMPULSES TO TRACK
TOWARDS ALABAMA FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...AND WILL CONTINUE WITH GOOD
RAIN CHANCES EACH DAY. THERE IS ALWAYS SOME SEVERE THREAT WITH
THESE TYPE OF SYSTEMS...BUT TIMING AND ORGANIZATION TYPICALLY
DICTATE THE THREAT LEVEL. WHILE THERE IS SOME DEGREE OF CONFIDENCE
IN A SEVERE WEATHER THREAT DURING THE THURSDAY THOUGH SATURDAY
TIME PERIOD...THE CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW FOR ANY SPECIFIC DAY TO
INCLUDE SEVERE IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK. THE MODELS DO
AGREE IN A DRYING TREND BY SUNDAY...WITH THE BETTER RAIN CHANCES
SHIFTING TOWARDS THE GULF COAST REGION.

58/ROSE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     96  68  97  71  96 /  10   0  10  10  30
ANNISTON    96  69  96  72  95 /  10   0  10  10  30
BIRMINGHAM  96  72  98  75  96 /  10   0  10  10  30
TUSCALOOSA  98  71 100  74  98 /  10   0  10  10  30
CALERA      95  68  96  72  95 /  10   0  10  10  30
AUBURN      94  72  96  73  93 /  10   0  10  10  30
MONTGOMERY  98  71  99  74  96 /  10   0  10  10  30
TROY        97  71  98  73  95 /  10   0  10  10  30

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$



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