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Area Forecast Discussion

856
FXUS64 KBMX 051728
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1128 AM CST FRI FEB 5 2016

.UPDATE...
FOR 18Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

A BROAD UPPER TROF OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES WILL PRODUCE DRY
CONDITIONS ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS GULF
MOISTURE REMAINS CUT-OFF DUE TO WEST AND NORTHWEST FLOW. A FAST
MOVING SHORT WAVE CURRENTLY OVER THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN STATES WILL
PASS THROUGH ALABAMA THIS WEEKEND. THIS MOISTURE STARVED SYSTEM
WILL ONLY PRODUCE SOME MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION.
A MORE ROBUST AND STRONGER SHORT WAVE TROF WILL PUSH INTO THE
AREA ON MONDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL HAVE ENOUGH LIFT FOR SMALL
CHANCES OF LIGHT RAIN LATE SUNDAY MIGHT AND MONDAY ACROSS THE
NORTHERN HALF OF ALABAMA. ALTHOUGH THE FIRST WAVE OF COLDER AIR
ARRIVES ON MONDAY...THE AIR MASS WILL BE TOO WARM BELOW 850MB FOR
ANY WINTRY PRECIPITATION.

THE MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF THE INTRUSION OF ARCTIC AIR INTO THE
DEEP SOUTH NEXT WEEK. THE BRUNT OF THE COLD AIR MASS WILL STAY TO
THE NORTH AND EAST OF ALABAMA AND IT WILL NOT BE AROUND VERY LONG.
THE COLDEST DAY OF THE WEEK WILL BE TUESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 30S
NORTH AND 40S SOUTH. THE MODELS HAVE ALSO BACKED OFF ON THE
COVERAGE OF WINTRY PRECIPITATION ACROSS NORTH ALABAMA TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. THE AIR MASS WILL BE COLD ENOUGH FOR THE FORMATION OF
LIGHT SNOW MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...BUT AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT
AND NOT ENOUGH FOR ACCUMULATIONS. THERE COULD BE A DUSTING ON SOME
OF THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS ACROSS NORTHEAST ALABAMA. TEMPERATURES
WILL WARM UP CONSIDERABLY BY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS THE UPPER FLOW
BECOMES WESTERLY WITH HIGHS BACK INTO THE 50S AND 60S.

58/ROSE


&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND BEYOND.
WINDS WILL BE N TO NNE THIS AFTERNOON AROUND 10 KTS...GUSTING TO
15-20 KTS AT MGM/TOI...THEN BECOMING LIGHT AFTER SUNSET.

32/DAVIS

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. A MUCH DRIER
AIR MASS WILL SETTLE OVER THE REGION TODAY WITH AFTERNOON RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES REACHING THE MIDDLE 20S. SLIGHTLY MORE HUMID
CONDITIONS OVER THE WEEKEND WITH NO RAIN EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY.

58/ROSE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     49  26  50  29  54 /   0   0   0   0   0
ANNISTON    49  28  51  30  55 /   0   0   0   0   0
BIRMINGHAM  50  29  52  32  56 /   0   0   0   0   0
TUSCALOOSA  52  28  52  31  58 /   0   0   0   0   0
CALERA      50  29  52  32  56 /   0   0   0   0   0
AUBURN      51  30  52  33  55 /   0   0   0   0   0
MONTGOMERY  53  29  55  32  57 /   0   0   0   0   0
TROY        53  29  54  33  57 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$



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