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Area Forecast Discussion

002
FXUS64 KBMX 311139
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
639 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 12Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

WELL...AN ACTIVE PERIOD IS ANTICIPATED THE NEXT SEVEN TO TEN
DAYS.

WILL ADD A SMALL MENTION OF SEVERE STORMS FROM AROUND NOON THROUGH
8 OR 9 PM. THIS MAY OCCUR THROUGH THE HEART OF CENTRAL ALABAMA.
THE THREAT WILL BE SOME MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL AND POTENTIAL WIND
GUSTS. A QUASI STATIONARY BOUNDARY WILL SLOWLY MOVE NORTHWARD AS A
WARM FRONT AND NOT REALLY MOVE TOO FAR. MUCH OF CENTRAL ALABAMA
WILL BE IN THE FRONTAL ZONE WITH PLENTY OF INSTABILITY DEVELOPING.
0-6 KM BULK SHEAR VALUES REACH 35-40KTS...AN UPPER DISTURBANCE
MOVES OVERHEAD PROVIDING UPWARD MOTION...DECENT LAPSE RATES
EXISTS...AND WE ARE LOCATED NEAR THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF A 95 KT
UPPER JET. ALTHOUGH LOW LEVEL FORCING IS A BIT LACKING...EXPECT
THUNDERSTORMS...A FEW OF WHICH MAY BRIEFLY BECOME SEVERE.

ON WEDNESDAY...NOT AS MUCH UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT FOR STRONGER
THUNDERSTORMS AND BULK SHEAR IS MUCH LOWER...BUT THE
THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT IS SOMEWHAT SIMILAR. AS WE HEAT
UP...INSTABILITY FORMS. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A STRONG TO
MARGINALLY SEVERE STORM...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LESSER WEDNESDAY.

THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES THE AREA FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO
FRIDAY NIGHT. THE MODEL OUTPUT HAS NOT BEEN OVERLY CONSISTENT
WITH THE SPECIFIC PARAMETERS....WHICH IS QUITE NORMAL THAT FAR
AWAY. BUT THINGS ARE TRENDING TOWARD HAVING SOME SEVERE STORMS AT
LEAST POSSIBLE. THE PARENT UPPER SYSTEM AND ITS ASSOCIATED LOW
MOVE NORTHWEST AND NORTH OF THE AREA...BUT THE COLD FRONT PUSHES
INTO THE AREA AROUND MAXIMUM HEATING. THIS INSTABILITY COMBINED
WITH HIGHER BULK SHEAR/INCREASED WINDS ALOFT WILL PROVIDE ENOUGH
SUPPORT FOR THE MENTION OF MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS.

TEMPERATURES DIP BELOW NORMAL FOR EARLY APRIL BEHIND THE FRONT
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. THEN SOME MODERATION TAKES PLACE. ANOTHER
SYSTEM TAKES SHAPE IN THE 7 TO 10 DAY TIME FRAME THAT WILL BARE
WATCHING CLOSELY.

75


&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF DISCUSSION.

DENSE FOG HAS CREPT UP FROM THE SOUTH INTO TOI EARLY THIS MORNING.
THIS SHOULD GRADUALLY LIFT BETWEEN 13Z AND 15Z. THE REST OF THE
FORECAST FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS A NOT AS STRAIGHTFORWARD. SOUTHERLY
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO KICK IN AND HELP SOME LOWER CLOUDS FORM ACROSS
CENTRAL ALABAMA BY MID-MORNING. BUT FORECASTING THEIR EXTENT AND
ASSOCIATED CEILINGS ARE A BIT PROBLEMATIC. I WENT WITH MVFR...BUT
COULD SEE IT (AT LEAST BRIEFLY) A BIT LOWER IN SPOTS. WE ARE ALSO
ANTICIPATING THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN
MISSISSIPPI...WHICH WOULD (PRESUMEABLY) EVENTUALLY GET INTO
CENTRAL ALABAMA. MODELS SUGGEST THE RAIN SHOULD HAD ALREADY
STARTED FORMING BY 12Z -- THAT APPEARS TO NOT QUITE BE THE CASE.
IF THAT REMAINS TO NOT BE THE CASE...THEN WE WILL NEED TO AMEND TO
REMOVE OR DELAY TSRA CHANCES THIS AFTERNOON.

/61/

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR BARBOUR-
BULLOCK-MACON-PIKE-RUSSELL.

&&

$$



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