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Area Forecast Discussion

307
FXUS64 KBMX 250007
AFDBMX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
707 PM CDT SAT SEP 24 2016

.UPDATE...
For 00Z Aviation.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Isolated showers and storms, primarily in the south and west
portion of the forecast area, are expected to diminish once we
lose the heating of the day. That will leave clear to partly
cloudy skies for the rest of tonight. Looks like we have one more
similar day tomorrow, with lots of unseasonably warm temperatures
and isolated to scattered convection in the southern half to third
of central Alabama.

The next main feature to watch, early in the work week, remains a
cold front that is forecast to push into our area. The timing of
the cold front`s passage still looks like Monday afternoon through
Tuesday morning. There`s not an overwhelming amount of moisture
associated with this system by the time it gets to us, and it
looks like chance POPs, at most, is the proper play. POPs on
Tuesday will be limited to the southeast section, as drier and
cooler post-frontal air filters in from the north.

High pressure builds into the region for the rest of the week, as
temps actually drop to near (or even slightly below) seasonal
normals.High pressure in the north will strengthen tonight`s
variable winds develop an easterly fetch, drawing in moisture from
the Atlantic. These combined may produce a few isolated storms and
showers for southern sites.

/61/


&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF Discussion.

VFR conditions will prevail through the period.

Evening satellite and radar imagery show isolated storms and
showers across the southern counties. These storms are diurnal in
nature and will diminish quickly the next hour or so due to loss
of heating. Not much change in the TAFs as dry air will dominate
tonight and throughout tomorrow, keeping ceilings and vis without
restriction. Chances for convection tomorrow afternoon were too
low to mention in the TAFs at this time, however the upper level
low will continue to push westward and produce some synoptic
lifting in the southern counties. To correlate with the lift, a
ridge centered towards our north will produce an easterly fetch
that will draw in some moisture Some storms may be mentioned in
future forecast at MGM/TOI.


92/Baird

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Slight chance of isolated showers/storms on Sunday. A front with
better rain chances will move through on Monday into Tuesday
morning. Beginning Tuesday afternoon, drier weather returns for
the remainder of the week. No fire weather concerns are
anticipated.

25/Owen

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden     68  92  67  90  62 /   0  10  10  30  40
Anniston    68  92  69  90  64 /   0  10  10  20  40
Birmingham  74  93  71  92  64 /   0  10  10  30  30
Tuscaloosa  71  95  69  94  65 /  10  20  10  20  30
Calera      70  93  69  91  65 /  10  20  10  20  40
Auburn      70  91  69  90  68 /  20  20  10  20  40
Montgomery  71  94  70  94  69 /  20  20  10  20  30
Troy        69  91  69  91  67 /  20  30  20  20  30

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$



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