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Area Forecast Discussion

206
FXUS64 KBMX 272331
AFDBMX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
631 PM CDT SAT AUG 27 2016

.UPDATE...
For 00Z Aviation.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
Through Tonight.

A decent fetch of dry air continues to push into Central Alabama
this afternoon under southeasterly 1000-500mb flow. Dewpoints have
been able to mix out into the lower 60s across southern locations of
Central Alabama, such as Montgomery, Troy, and Eufaula. PWATs on the
12z KBMX sounding this morning were fairly dry as well, measured at
1.30 inches. Due to the dry air fetch, showers and storms have been
hard to come by. Only isolated convection has been noted across
northern Central Alabama counties. We`re not expecting that to
increase much through the rest of the afternoon, and any isolated
showers and storms left will dissipate after sunset this evening.
Mostly clear skies are expected overnight tonight, with chances of
any fog remaining limited due to the drier air in place.

56/GDG

.LONG TERM...
Sunday through Saturday.

Sunday`s weather will be very similar to today with deep easterly
flow ushering in a drier air mass. A pocket a slightly higher mid
level moisture will pool over northeast Alabama Sunday afternoon,
and could see a few more afternoon storms in this region. Satellite
imagery shows a large area of drier mid level from the New England
States down to Georgia. This will be the air mass source region
for the next several days. The overall pattern next week will be
dominated by high pressure aloft which will keep the deeper Gulf
moisture near the coast. By Tuesday there could be a slight
increase in mid level moisture across southeast Alabama as a
inverted trof approaches this region. By Wednesday a short wave
trof digs southward along the eastern United States. This trof
will push a weak surface front into north Alabama on Thursday. The
models are showing slightly lower surface dewpoints across north
Alabama Thursday and Friday, so diurnal convection will likely be
confined to areas south of I-20. Of course any tropical development
would greatly impact the southern half of Alabama by the end of
the week, but given model uncertainties, will keep low rain chances
for now.

58/rose


&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF Discussion.

VFR conditions prevail through Sunday morning, with some passing
high-level/cirrus clouds at select terminals tonight thanks to
blow-off from earlier Gulf coast showers/storms. Surface winds
will range from calm to very light.

For Sunday, budding cumulus should follow its usual summertime
appearance by mid-day. Spotty afternoon showers and thunderstorms
are expected, though limited coverage precludes mentions in TAFs
at this time; however, early assessments show ASN-ANB as standing
the best chance for having vicinity activity. Satellite/radar
trends nearing Sunday`s 18Z TAFs will better depict any possible
impacts.

89/GSatterwhite

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Generally dry conditions with above average temperatures will continue
thru the middle of next week, with only isolated afternoon storms
each day. Critical fire weather conditions are not expected.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden     71  92  71  92  71 /  10  30  20  20  10
Anniston    71  93  72  92  72 /  10  30  20  20  10
Birmingham  74  94  74  93  74 /  10  20  10  20  10
Tuscaloosa  73  95  75  95  74 /  10  10  10  20  10
Calera      73  94  73  93  73 /  10  20  10  20  10
Auburn      73  92  72  92  73 /  10  20  10  20  10
Montgomery  73  96  74  95  74 /  10  10  10  20  10
Troy        72  93  72  93  73 /  10  10  10  20  10

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$



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