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Area Forecast Discussion

832
FXUS64 KBMX 170404
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1104 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 06Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

NO REAL BIG CHANGES MADE TO THE ONGOING FORECAST AS TEMPERATURES
ARE ON TRACK FOR AREAWIDE 60S. MAY EVEN SEE A FEW LOCAL AREAS
REACH THE UPPER 50S BY SUNRISE IN THE NORTHEAST. DEWPOINTS HAVE
NOT REALLY FALLEN OFF THAT MUCH AS THE DRIER BOUNDARY REMAINS TO
THE NORTH. WITH THAT IN MIND HAVE ADDED IN PATCHY FOG AFTER
MIDNIGHT FOR ALL BUT THE NORTHWEST. THIS MAY BE ONE OF THOSE
NIGHTS IN WHICH FOG FORMS EARLY BUT THEN AS THE DRIER AIR MOVES IN
THE FOG DISSIPATES EARLIER THAN EXPECTED...AT LEAST ACROSS THE
NORTH. THE MORE RICH AIRMASS WILL BE IN THE SOUTH...SO CONFIDENCE
IS HIGHER THERE OF THE FOG DEVELOPMENT. UPDATES ARE OUT.

16


&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF DISCUSSION.

THE CHALLENGE THIS PERIOD REMAINS THE POTENTIAL OF LOWER CEILINGS
DEVELOPMENT OR ADVECTION IN THE FROM THE NORTH. AT THIS
TIME...KEPT THE PREVIOUS TREND OF MORE OPTIMISTIC WITH MENTION OF
A FEW MVFR/VFR CEILINGS OVERNIGHT AND SOME PATCHY MVFR FOG.

AS EXPECTED...SOME LOCATIONS ARE CLOSING IN ON THEIR DEW POINT
DEPRESSIONS THIS EVENING. THIS MAY LEAD TO SOME PATCHY FOG AROUND
5 SM. AS THE DEW POINT DEPRESSION FLUCTUATES OVERNIGHT...THERE MAY
BE PERIODS WHERE SOME MVFR FOG DEVELOPS AND MENTIONED THIS CHANCE
AT ALL BUT BHM.

CLOUD COVER ALSO SEEMS TRICKY. THE MODEL CONSENSUS HAS THE LOWER
LEVELS DRYING MORE OVERNIGHT...BUT THE POTENTIAL OF A SHORT PERIOD
OF VFR CEILINGS. LOOKING AT THE PRESSURE ADVECTION...LOCAL
PRESSURE DERIVATIVE AND MIXING RATIO...SOME CLOUDS COULD DEVELOP
AROUND 025. AT THIS TIME...GENERALLY KEPT THE PREVIOUS TREND OF VFR BUT
MENTIONED A CHANCE OF MVFR AT TCL. WILL MONITOR THESE CLOUDS THE
NEXT FEW HOURS FOR ANY ESTABLISHED TRENDS.

ON WEDNESDAY...WINDS REMAIN NORTHWEST WITH DRYING CONTINUING AND
LITTLE CLOUD COVER. DAYTIME WINDS AROUND 7KTS AND CALM BY NIGHT
FALL.

75

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     64  82  57  83  57 /  10   0   0  10  10
ANNISTON    66  84  59  84  59 /  10   0  10  10  10
BIRMINGHAM  66  86  63  86  63 /  10   0   0  10  10
TUSCALOOSA  68  89  64  88  63 /  10   0   0  10   0
CALERA      68  86  63  84  63 /  10   0   0  10  10
AUBURN      69  88  63  86  63 /  10   0   0  10  10
MONTGOMERY  70  90  65  88  65 /  10   0   0  10  10
TROY        68  89  64  88  63 /  10  10   0  10   0

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$







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