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Area Forecast Discussion

578
FXUS64 KBMX 011019
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
519 AM CDT FRI AUG 1 2014

.DISCUSSION...

THIS MORNING WE HAVE ABUNDANT MID/UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS FOR THE MOST
PART ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOME STRATUS
ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN COUNTIES OF THE STATE. NORTHEAST/EASTERLY
LIGHT LOW LEVEL FLOW OVERNIGHT HAS HELPED WITH THE STRATUS
TRANSPORT. THE CLOUD COVER AND WINDS HAVE KEPT TEMPERATURES MILDER
ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE STATE ESPECIALLY. A STALLED
BOUNDARY REMAINS ACROSS THE COAST. THE SURFACE LOW ASSOCIATED WITH
IT IS EXPECTED TO WAFFLE/ALONG THE COAST OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
OVERALL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE WITH A FEW SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE TODAY WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND SOME WEAK
UPPER SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH THE BASE OF THE EASTERN U.S.
TROUGH.

AS WE MOVE INTO THE WEEKEND INTO THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK...
TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE AS THE COOLER FLOW IS CUT OFF WITH
WARMEST READINGS IN THE SOUTH/WEST AS SOME OF THE SOUTHEAST COULD
BE A DEGREE OR SO MILDER DEPENDING ON ONSET OF CONVECTION WITH THE
EAST FLOW. RAIN CHANCES SHOULD INCREASE AS WE MOVE INTO THE
WEEKEND AS THE SURFACE LOW ALONG THE COAST INTERACTS WITH WEAK
UPPER SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH THE BASE OF THE UPPER LOW PRESSURE
TROUGH OVER EASTERN CANADA THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND.
ALSO...THE UPPER TROUGH SHOULD DIG DECENTLY ACROSS THE
SOUTHEASTERN U.S. AS WE PROGRESS THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS THE MAIN
LOW MOVES INTO THE ATLANTIC SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

BY TUESDAY...THE REMAINING ENERGY FROM THE UPPER TROUGH LOOKS TO
WEAKEN WITH A FLATTENING FLOW BY WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE NORTHEAST
U.S. AND RIDGING BUILDING OVER THE SOUTHWEST U.S. AND THE
EASTERN GULF INTO THE CARIBBEAN WITH VERY WEAK FLOW IN BETWEEN AS
WE MOVE INTO MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THUS...WE ARE LOOKING TO RETURN
TO A MORE SUMMERTIME LIKE DIURNALLY INFLUENCED PATTERN.

AT THIS TIME WE ARE NOT LOOKING AT ANY BIG IMPACTS FROM BERTHA AS
SHE SHOULD REMAIN FAR TO THE EAST OF ALABAMA OVER THE CARIBBEAN
AND ATLANTIC.

08/MK

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF DISCUSSION.

THE FORECAST THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAIN GENERALLY VFR THROUGHOUT.
CONTINUED A SMALL TIME FRAME TOWARD SUNRISE WHERE SOME MVFR BR
MAY DEVELOP...GENERALLY EAST FOR ANB/MGM/TOI AS SURFACE DEW POINTS
INCREASE FROM THE EAST. OTHERWISE...SCATTERED CUMULUS AROUND 5-7
KFT AND SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL DRIFT OVERHEAD. MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE IN GEORGIA SHOULD INCH TOWARD EASTERN ALABAMA BUT
SHOULD REMAIN JUST EAST OF THE STATE LINE THROUGH SUNRISE. DID
CONTINUE VCSH FOR ANB AFTER 14Z...GIVEN THE PROXIMITY OF THE
DEEPER MOISTURE. CONFIDENCE REMAINS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE ANY OTHER
SITE AT THIS TIME.

16

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     85  67  86  67  86 /  40  30  50  30  40
ANNISTON    84  68  85  67  85 /  40  30  50  40  50
BIRMINGHAM  86  69  86  69  87 /  30  20  50  30  40
TUSCALOOSA  87  69  87  69  89 /  30  20  50  30  40
CALERA      86  69  86  70  87 /  30  20  50  40  40
AUBURN      86  69  86  70  85 /  30  30  50  40  60
MONTGOMERY  89  71  89  71  88 /  30  20  50  40  60
TROY        89  69  88  71  87 /  30  20  50  40  60

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$








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