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Area Forecast Discussion

581
FXUS64 KBMX 251756 AAC
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1256 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 18Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

THE FIRST WAVE OF CONVECTION HAS PUSHED EASTWARD INTO GEORGIA AND
CENTRAL ALABAMA IS CURRENTLY RAIN FREE DUE TO SUBSIDENCE IN WAKE
OF MORNING ACTIVITY. SURFACE DEW POINTS ARE CLIMBING QUICKLY WITH
MIDDLE 60S AS FAR NORTH OF I-20. AS SURFACE TEMPERATURES WARM INTO
THE LOWER 80S THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA
...CAPE VALUES WILL CLIMB TO BETWEEN 2500 AND 3000 J/KG WITH 0-6KM
BULK SHEAR OF 60-70 KNOTS. ATMOSPHERE WILL CERTAINLY HAVE TIME TO
RECOVER AND SUPPORT SEVERE STORMS. THE NEXT UPSTREAM MCS IS
CURRENTLY OVER SOUTHERN LOUISIANA. THIS SYSTEM IS TAKING AN
EASTERLY TRACK AND HIGH RESOLUTION FORECAST MODELS ARE ALSO
KEEPING THIS SYSTEM ALONG THE GULF COAST. THE BETTER THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES WILL BE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES OF CENTRAL ALABAMA
THIS AFTERNOON...WITH MORE ISOLATED ACTIVITY NORTH OF I-20. WITH
SURFACE WINDS VEERING TO A SOUTHWEST DIRECTION THIS AFTERNOON...
WIND FLOW BECOMES UNI-DIRECTIONAL AND TORNADO THREAT APPEARS TO
LOW TO KEEP IN FORECAST PRODUCTS. WILL ALSO REMOVE SEVERE THREAT
FOR AREAS NORTH OF OF I-20.

58/ROSE

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

BEST CHANCES FOR TSRA REDEVELOPMENT FOR THIS AFTERNOON REMAINS
ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH DURING THE PRIME HEAT OF THE DAY. ONLY
MENTION IN TAFS WILL BE AT MGM/TOI. WILL LEAVE OUT OF ALL OTHER
TERMINALS AS THE CHANCES WILL BE LOW. ONE THING NOT HELPING
REDEVELOPMENT IS LINGERING CLOUD COVER. HIGH CLOUDS ARE PRESENT IN
COMBINATION WITH SOME MVFR STRATOCU AT A FEW SPOTS WHICH FOR THE
MOST PART SHOULD GO TO VFR CIGS EXCEPT FOR MAYBE TOI...WHICH IS
LOWER AND MAY STRUGGLE GETTING THERE. LOW STRATUS AND FOG POSSIBLE
ONCE AGAIN TONIGHT...BEST CHANCES SOUTH TAFS...MGM/TOI DUE TO
LINGERING MOISTURE AND BETTER RAIN CHANCES LATE TODAY.

08/MK

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 246 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015/

SHORT DISCUSSION THIS MORNING TO ONLY HANDLE THE SHORT TERM.
LINE OF CONVECTION MOVING INTO WESTERN ALABAMA IS MOVING INTO A
SLIGHTLY MORE STABLE AIRMASS. DEW POINTS IN WESTERN ALABAMA NEAR
THE STATE LINE JUST NOW REACHING THE LOWER 60S WITH A DROP OFF
INTO THE MID 50S AT TCL. SURFACE BASED CAPE STILL NON-EXISTENT
WITH MU CAPE BETWEEN 100 TO 250 J/KG. THE REALLY MOISTURE RICH AIR
IS STILL JUST TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE CWA. SHEAR VALUES ARE
PLENTIFUL TO SUPPORT SEVERE WEATHER HOWEVER...WITH 0-1KM HELICITY
OF 450+ AND 0-6KM BULK SHEAR AROUND 70 KTS.

OVER THE NEXT 1 TO 3 HOURS...A VERY STRONG MID LEVEL
JET FROM THE SOUTHWEST IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO WESTERN ALABAMA
BY THE HRRR. WE SHOULD SEE AN INCREASING IN PRECIPITABLE WATER
WITH DEW POINTS RISING INTO THE MID AND UPPER 60S AND AN INCREASE
IN THE POTENTIAL FOR SURFACE BASED CONVECTION.

STILL A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY WITH THE POTENTIAL RE-DEVELOPMENT LATER
THIS AFTERNOON. LOOKS LIKE THERE MIGHT BE A SECONDARY MID LEVEL
SPEED MAX TO DEVELOP OVER THE CWA BY AFTERNOON. HI-RES MODELS DO
RESPOND WITH SOME REDEVELOPMENT IN THE AREA SO THE POTENTIAL FOR A
SECOND ROUND OF SEVERE WEATHER STILL POSSIBLE. WILL SEE HOW THE
CURRENT CONVECTION EVOLVES THROUGH THE EARLY TO MID MORNING AND
UPDATE LATER FOR ANY CHANGES.

88

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     62  79  51  72  48 /  20  10  10   0  10
ANNISTON    64  81  54  73  50 /  20  10  10   0  10
BIRMINGHAM  65  82  55  73  52 /  20  10  10   0  10
TUSCALOOSA  65  84  56  75  54 /  20  10  10  10  20
CALERA      65  83  56  74  53 /  20  10  10  10  20
AUBURN      65  83  57  75  52 /  30  10  10  10  20
MONTGOMERY  67  87  60  78  56 /  30  10  10  10  20
TROY        67  87  61  79  56 /  30  10  10  10  20

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

58/08/88



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