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Area Forecast Discussion

632
FXUS64 KBMX 272201
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
401 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...

MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ARE PREVAILING THIS AFTERNOON WITH STRONG
NORTHERLY FLOW AT THE SURFACE. WINDS ARE QUITE GUSTY DUE TO THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT FROM THE DEPARTING LOW OVER THE NORTHEAST AND
RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE PLAINS STATES. TEMPS HAVE BEEN ALLOWED TO
RISE HIGHER THAN GUIDANCE WAS PREVIOUSLY INDICATING...AND THAT
COULD BE THE CASE ONCE AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY AS THICKNESSES RISE
HIGHER THAN THEY WERE TODAY WITH THE RIDGE BUILDING IN.

ABOVE NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST THROUGH
THURSDAY AS SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AT THE SURFACE RETURNS DURING THE
DAY ON THURSDAY. THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL BE IN RESPONSE TO AN
APPROACHING SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT MOVING IN
FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST STATES. IN TERMS OF RAINFALL CHANCES...THE
AMOUNT OF MOISTURE WILL BE QUITE LOW AND ONLY A FEW SHOWERS WILL
BE EXPECTED ACROSS OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES AT THE MOST. IN FACT...WE
MAY HAVE TO REDUCE POPS EVEN FURTHER FROM THE LOW CHANCE THAT IS
CURRENTLY IN THE FORECAST. BROKEN TO OVERCAST CLOUDS WILL
ACCOMPANY THE FRONT ON THURSDAY AS WELL...WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES
WORKING INTO THE STATE AFTER MIDNIGHT THURSDAY NIGHT.

WE WON`T SEE THE BRUNT OF THE ARCTIC AIR BEHIND THIS FRONT...AS
THE CORE OF THE COLDEST AIR WILL PUSH ACROSS THE NORTHEAST U.S.
WE`LL STILL COOL DOWN TO MORE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THIS TIME OF
THE YEAR ON FRIDAY...BUT CERTAINLY NOTHING EXTREMELY COLD. THE
NEXT SIGNIFICANT SYSTEM WILL ARRIVE OVER THE LATTER PORTION OF
THIS WEEKEND WITH A WIDESPREAD RAINFALL LIKELY ACROSS MUCH OF
CENTRAL ALABAMA ON SUNDAY. ONLY RAINFALL IS BEING MENTIONED IN THE
FORECAST WITH NO THUNDERSTORMS AT THIS TIME. WE`LL WATCH FOR MORE
CONSISTENT TRENDS IN THE EXPECTED TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW THAT`S
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TO OUR EAST ON SUNDAY MORNING. IF THE LOW
TRAVELS FURTHER NORTHWARD WE COULD BE IN A BETTER ENVIRONMENT FOR
STORMS...SOME PERHAPS STRONG WITH 0-6KM BULK SHEAR VALUES OVER 50
KNOTS. STILL LOTS OF TIME FOR BETTER CONSISTENCIES BEFORE
MENTIONING THUNDER JUST YET. I`VE GONE AHEAD AND TRENDED HIGHER
WITH TEMPS AND DEWPOINTS A BIT TO REFLECT A MORE NORTHERLY
TRACK...BASICALLY SPLITTING THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE ECMWF AND
THE GFS. ANOTHER COOL DOWN IS EXPECTED BEHIND THE SYSTEM FOR
MONDAY AND THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.

56/GDG

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

KEPT THE VFR CONDITIONS FOR ALL TERMINALS THROUGH THE PERIOD. MVFR
AND IFR CEILINGS WERE JUST OFF TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA AND ARE
INCHING SLOWLY SOUTHWARD. EXPECT SOME SCT040-060 TO DEVELOP AT
MOST PLACES. BUT SINCE THE AIR IS RATHER DRY AND HEATING WILL
INDUCE MIXING...KEPT ANY MENTION OF MVFR OR IFR CEILINGS OUT OF
THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME. THIS MOISTURE WILL PLAY HAVOC WITH
POTENTIAL CLOUD COVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...BUT KEPT THESE CEILINGS
NORTH. THE HIGHER RESOLUTION MODELS DID A BETTER JOB LAST NIGHT
WITH THE CLOUDS AND LEANED THAT WAY FOR THIS PACKAGE.

WINDS WILL BE NORTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON BETWEEN 10 AND 20
KTS...SHIFTING TO LIGHT NORTHEAST ON WEDNESDAY.

75

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     27  54  32  58  35 /   0   0   0  20  20
ANNISTON    29  56  35  60  37 /   0   0   0  20  20
BIRMINGHAM  29  56  37  61  37 /   0   0   0  20  20
TUSCALOOSA  31  59  38  65  39 /   0   0   0  20  20
CALERA      31  57  38  62  38 /   0   0   0  20  20
AUBURN      31  57  36  59  39 /   0   0   0  10  20
MONTGOMERY  31  61  36  65  40 /   0   0   0  10  20
TROY        31  60  34  64  42 /   0   0   0   0  20

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$







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