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Area Forecast Discussion

098
FXUS64 KBMX 290029 AAA
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
729 PM CDT THU APR 28 2016

.UPDATE...
FOR 00Z AVIATION.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
REST OF THE AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

CONVECTION HAS STRUGGLED TO RE-DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON IN THE WAKE OF
THIS MORNING`S ACTIVITY AND NORTH OF THE MCS OVER THE GULF COAST. AN
AREA OF ENHANCED CUMULUS IS LOCATED JUST NORTH OF THE CIRRUS SHIELD
ASSOCIATED WITH THE MCS...EXTENDING FROM SOUTHERN SUMTER COUNTY
TOWARDS LEE/CHAMBERS COUNTIES. THIS IS WHERE CONVECTION WOULD
PROBABLY DEVELOP IF IT WAS GOING TO DEVELOP...HOWEVER SO FAR THERE
HAS NOT BEEN ANY DEVELOPMENT IN THIS AREA. IF STORMS WERE TO DEVELOP
THEY WOULD BECOME STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE WITH SPC MESOANALYSIS
INDICATING 2000-2500 J/KG OF CAPE...OVER 1000 J/KG OF DCAPE...AND 35-
40 KTS OF EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR. FOR THIS REASON WE WILL MAINTAIN THE
CHANCE OF AN ISOLATED SEVERE STORM IN THE HWO FOR A COUPLE MORE
HOURS...BUT THE THREAT IS VERY CONDITIONAL.

ANY STORMS SHOULD QUICKLY DIMINISH THIS EVENING. THE COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN COUNTIES TONIGHT BUT LIFT IS LACKING SO DRY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. PATCHY FOG AND/OR LOW STRATUS WILL BE
POSSIBLE ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE FRONT WHERE DEW POINTS WILL
REMAIN ELEVATED...WHILE TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE UPPER 50S
NORTH OF THE FRONT IN A DRIER AIR MASS.

32/DAVIS

.LONG TERM...
FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BEGIN TO LIFT BACK ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY
NIGHT AND WILL BEGIN TO SEE AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE ALONG AND BEHIND
THE FRONT. EXPECT MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE ACTIVITY FRIDAY NIGHT TO BE
ISOLATED AND BRIEF. AS WE WORK INTO SATURDAY A DISTURBANCE WILL
SLIDE ALONG THE FRONT AND INCREASE RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE NORTH
FROM WEST TO EAST...WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES IN THE NORTHWEST. WITH
THAT SAID THOUGH RAIN CHANCES DURING THE AFTERNOON WILL REMAIN IN
THE CHANCE CATEGORY WITH MORE OF YOUR TYPICAL HIT OR MISS VARIETY.

THE BETTER RAIN CHANCES WORK INTO THE STATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY AS A COOL FRONT WORKS IN. QUESTIONS LIE WITH HOW MUCH AND HOW
OFTEN WILL IT RAIN ON SUNDAY FOR THOSE OUTDOOR EVENTS. THE WORST
CASE SCENARIO THE FRONT STALLS AND WE SEE RAIN SHOWERS ON AND OFF
THROUGHOUT THE DAY WITH OCCASIONAL THUNDERSTORMS. A POSSIBLE
SCENARIO AND ONE SUPPORTED BY A COUPLE OF MODELS...SHOWS AN MCS MOVE
THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING AND STABILIZE THE NORTHERN COUNTIES...AREAS
NORTH OF I-20 AND DRY THEM OUT FOR A GOOD CHUNK OF THE DAY BEFORE
MORE SCATTERED ACTIVITY DEVELOPS IN THE HEATING OF THE DAY.
UNFORTUNATELY BOTH SCENARIOS ARE PLAUSIBLE AND WOULD FIT THE CURRENT
PATTERN WE ARE IN SO CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW...WHILE THE RAIN CHANCES
REMAIN HIGH. THE FORECAST REMAINS TRICKY MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS THE
EURO WANTS TO STALL THE FRONT ACROSS THE AREA...WHILE THE GFS CLEARS
IT TO OUR SOUTH BEFORE LIFTING BACK INTO THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT.

16

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION.

VERY THIN LINE OF CONVECTION NEAR I-85 CORRIDOR ACROSS CENTRAL
ALABAMA. PROBABILITY IS LOW THAT ANYTHING WOULD HIT TAFS. WILL
LEAVE OUT FOR NOW BUT MONITOR MGM FOR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT.
OTHERWISE...VFR AT ALL TAFS BUT MGM/TOI WHERE COULD SEE SOME MVFR
CIGS/VSBYS DEVELOPING LATE TONIGHT INTO THE EARLY MORNING WHERE
MOISTURE IS MORE PREVALENT.

08

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY EVENING AS A
FRONT SINKS SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE AREA. SOME STORMS PRODUCING STRONG
WIND GUSTS...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE US 80/I-85 CORRIDOR.
A BRIEF DRY PERIOD ON FRIDAY WILL BE FOLLOWED BY INCREASED RAIN
CHANCES OVER THE WEEKEND. NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS AT THIS TIME.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     58  86  61  82  64 /  10  10  20  40  60
ANNISTON    60  86  62  83  65 /  10  10  20  30  50
BIRMINGHAM  62  86  65  84  67 /  10  10  20  30  50
TUSCALOOSA  63  86  65  85  66 /  10  20  20  20  50
CALERA      63  85  65  84  66 /  10  10  10  20  50
AUBURN      64  86  65  84  66 /  20  10  10  20  30
MONTGOMERY  65  89  66  87  68 /  20  20  10  20  30
TROY        65  88  64  88  67 /  20  20  10  20  20

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

32/16/08



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