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Area Forecast Discussion

638
FXUS64 KBMX 220423
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1023 PM CST SUN DEC 21 2014

.UPDATE...
EVENING UPDATE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT COMBINED WITH A RATHER DEEP LOW LEVEL LAYER
OF ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL KEEP SKIES CLOUDY UNTIL CHRISTMAS. THIS
ISENTROPIC LIFT WAS STRONG ENOUGH TO PRODUCE SOME AREAS OF DRIZZLE
THIS EVENING. THE PRECIP WAS VERY LIGHT AND NOT MEASURING...BUT
CERTAINLY HELPING THICKEN AND LOWER THE CLOUDS. ACTUALLY DECREASED
MEASURABLE POPS OVERNIGHT...SLIGHTLY BUMPING IT EASTWARD. BUT DID
EXPAND THE MENTION OF DRIZZLE TO ALL PLACES BUT FAR NORTHWEST.
ADDITIONALLY...THE LOW CLOUDS AND DRIZZLE WILL COMBINE TO DROP
VISIBILITIES IN SPOTS TO 1 MILE OR LESS. ADDED THIS MENTION INTO
THE HWO AND FORECAST OVERNIGHT. OTHERWISE...WITH THE CLOUD
COVER...TEMPERATURES WILL NOT FALL TOO MUCH OVERNIGHT AND RAISED
LOWS A FEW DEGREES.

THE LATEST MODEL RUNS ARE STILL INDICATING A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
THREAT TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. MORE ON THAT IN A FEW HOURS.

75

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION.

ALL SIGNS CONTINUE TO POINT TO INCREASINGLY LOWER CEILINGS ACROSS
CENTRAL ALABAMA TERMINALS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AIRPORTS THAT
ARE MVFR EARLY ON SHOULD EVENTUALLY GET DOWN TO IFR. THOSE THAT
ARE IFR EARLY (MAINLY TOI) MAY GO LIFR. COMPUTER MODEL GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS THAT CONDITIONS WON`T IMPROVE MUCH IF AT ALL DURING THE
DAY ON MONDAY.

/61/


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 322 PM CST SUN DEC 21 2014/
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.

CLOUDS CONTINUE TO BLANKET ALABAMA DUE TO A MOIST EASTERLY FLOW. A
ZONE OF DEEPER MOISTURE ACROSS NORTHWEST FLORIDA WILL SHIFT SLOWLY
NORTHWARD OVERNIGHT AND THERE IS A CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN ACROSS
EAST ALABAMA. THE DEEPER MOISTURE WILL OVERSPREAD CENTRAL ALABAMA
ON MONDAY..BUT LACK OF ANY SIGNIFICANT FORCING WILL BE THE
PRECIPITATION AS SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS. A DEEP CLOSED UPPER LOW
OVER THE PLAINS STATES WILL PUSH A FAST MOVING SHORT WAVE TROF
ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY MONDAY NIGHT...AND BRING A
ROUND OF HEAVIER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO WEST ALABAMA MONDAY
NIGHT. THE UPPER LOW WILL ELONGATE INTO A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED TROF BY
TUESDAY AND WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TUESDAY ACROSS ALL OF CENTRAL ALABAMA. THIS DIGGING TROF
WILL CAUSE A SOUTHERN SURFACE LOW TO DEVELOP ACROSS LOUISIANA
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND TRACK NORTHEAST ACROSS NORTH ALABAMA TUESDAY
NIGHT. THE MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE TRACK AND
TIMING OF THE SURFACE LOW. THE SURFACE LOW WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT
ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA LATE TUESDAY NIGHT.

A SMALL THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER CONTINUES FOR ALL OF CENTRAL
ALABAMA AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. THE TWO LIMITING FACTORS FOR
SEVERE STORMS WILL BE THE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION EXPECTED ACROSS
THE AREA DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY. THIS WILL LIMIT INSTABILITY
AND MAKE IT DIFFICULT FOR THE AIR MASS TO RECOVER ONCE THE FRONT
ARRIVES. THE OTHER LIMITING FACTOR IS THE POSSIBILITY OF
CONVECTION ALONG THE GULF COAST...WHICH WILL ALSO LIMIT THE
AMOUNT OF ENERGY ALONG THE FRONT. FOR THESE REASONS WE ARE KEEPING
THE THREAT CONFIDENCE LOW AT THIS TIME. THIS IS A VERY DYNAMIC
SYSTEM AND THERE IS AMPLE SHEAR AND LIFT FOR THE PRODUCTION OF
THUNDERSTORMS. PROLONGED SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL
BRING SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE THE LOWER 60S INTO MUCH OF CENTRAL
ALABAMA. THIS WILL PROVIDE JUST ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR LIMITED
CAPE AND ANY STORMS THAT CAN DEVELOP ANY UPWARD HEIGHT WILL HAVE
THE POTENTIAL TO ROTATE AND BECOME SEVERE.

58/ROSE

LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

THE SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL BE PUSHING ACROSS EAST ALABAMA EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD BE SHIFTING INTO
GEORGIA BY THAT TIME. STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL OCCUR ON
WEDNESDAY AND TEMPERATURES WILL EITHER BE FALLING OR REMAIN STEADY
FOR MOST OF THE DAY. THERE IS ENOUGH WRAP AROUND MOISTURE FOR THE
POSSIBILITY OF SOME POST-FRONTAL SHOWERS. CHRISTMAS DAY MAY BE THE
FIRST DAY THIS WEEK WE EXPERIENCE ABUNDANT SUNSHINE. TEMPERATURES
ON THURSDAY WILL BE NEAR AVERAGE AS THE COLDEST PORTION OF THE AIR
MASS WILL SHIFT QUICKLY EASTWARD. A WEAK FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH
THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY AND BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
CLEARING OUT BY SUNDAY.

58/ROSE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     45  57  49  62  55 /  20  30  50  90  90
ANNISTON    46  58  51  65  57 /  20  30  50  90  90
BIRMINGHAM  47  60  57  65  53 /  20  30  50  90  80
TUSCALOOSA  47  62  57  67  49 /  10  30  60  90  80
CALERA      46  61  54  66  53 /  20  30  50  90  80
AUBURN      45  58  53  64  57 /  30  40  50  90  90
MONTGOMERY  48  64  56  69  58 /  20  30  50  90  80
TROY        49  63  57  68  58 /  30  40  50  90  80

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$







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