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Area Forecast Discussion

243
FXUS64 KBMX 050650
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
150 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.DISCUSSION...

INTERESTING EARLY JULY FORECAST AS THE OVERALL WEATHER PATTERN
REMAINS UNUSUALLY ACTIVE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. UPPER LEVEL
LOW/TROUGH LOOKS TO BE FINALLY TRYING TO LIFT OUT TO THE
NORTHEAST...WHICH COULD BRING SOME DRIER CONDITIONS TO THE WESTERN
HALF OF THE STATE LATER THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...TRAILING
BOUNDARIES WILL LIKELY GIVE US ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON...WITH SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS STILL
ONGOING AT THIS HOUR ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. MOST LIKELY SCENARIO
IS THAT THE CURRENT ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND SLOWLY
LIFT NORTH AND EAST INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC BY MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

THIS WILL LEAVE US DRIER AS OUR OLD SUMMER BERMUDA HIGH BUILDS
BACK WESTWARD FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. THIS WILL WARM US BACK UP
FOR MOST OF THE WORK WEEK...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS. CONDITIONS WILL BE
REMINISCENT OF JULY BY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.

INTERESTINGLY...THE LONGER RANGE GUIDANCE REBUILDS THE EASTERN
TROUGH...SO IT IS POSSIBLE THE COOLER AND WETTER THAN NORMAL
TRENDS WILL HAVE A RETURN OUT INTO THE WEEK FOLLOWING.

17/KLAWS

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF DISCUSSION.

UPPER LOW SPINNING TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA IS SENDING SPOKES OF
LIFT THROUGH CENTRAL ALABAMA. WE HAVE STABILIZED SOME FOR THE
OVERNIGHT BUT A FEW SHOWERS ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP AT SOME POINT.
ALSO SEEING A LOT OF LOWER CLOUD COVER DEVELOPING IN THE MOISTURE
RICH LOWER LEVELS. CLOUDS ARE THE MORE LIKELY THREAT THAN FOG WITH
SOME BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING WINDS AVAILABLE. TOMORROW...SOME
SHOWERS/STORMS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON BUT LOOKS LIKE THE
MAIN TROUGH AXIS WILL START PASSING TO THE EAST BY THAT TIME SO IT
MAY BE MORE SCATTERED THAN WIDESPREAD. WILL NOT INCLUDE ANYTHING
AT THIS TIME. LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS OVERNIGHT.

88

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

HIGH HUMIDITY VALUES AND ABOVE NORMAL RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE TODAY
AS AN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM SPINS JUST NORTH OF THE AREA. RAIN
CHANCES WILL BEGIN TO DECREASE AND DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL WARM
BACK UP NEXT WEEK AS A RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE AREA FROM THE
ATLANTIC.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     82  69  86  69  89 /  70  40  40  20  30
ANNISTON    81  69  86  70  89 /  80  40  40  20  30
BIRMINGHAM  82  70  86  72  90 /  60  40  40  20  20
TUSCALOOSA  84  70  89  72  92 /  60  40  40  20  20
CALERA      82  70  86  71  89 /  70  40  40  20  20
AUBURN      81  68  85  71  88 /  80  50  40  20  30
MONTGOMERY  85  70  89  72  92 /  80  50  40  20  20
TROY        85  70  88  71  92 /  80  50  50  20  20

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$



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