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Area Forecast Discussion

298
FXUS64 KBMX 220807
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
307 AM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...

WEAK UPPER LOW DRIFTING SOUTHWEST TOWARDS SOUTHERN LOUISIANA
TODAY. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE
EXPECTED TODAY...ESPECIALLY AS WE REACH THE PEAK HEATING OF THE
AFTERNOON. STILL A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS AROUND CURRENTLY...SO SOME
RAIN POSSIBLE AT JUST ABOUT ANYTIME.

A SURFACE FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE AREA EITHER WEDNESDAY NIGHT OR
THURSDAY (LEANING TOWARDS THURSDAY) AS UPPER RIDGING BUILDS TO
THE WEST AND A NICE EASTERN CONUS TROUGH IS CARVED OUT. SINCE
THERE IS STILL SOME MINOR UNCERTAINTIES ON THE TIMING...WILL ONLY
CARRY CHANCE POPS FOR NOW BUT THOSE WILL PROBABLY BE BUMPED UP AT
SOME POINT. THE FRONT WILL MOST LIKELY PUSH COMPLETELY
THROUGH...BRINGING SOME DRIER AIR TO THE REGION FOR THE WEEKEND
BUT DO NOT LOOK FOR ANY COOLER TEMPERATURES AS THE UPPER RIDGING
IN THE WEST WILL TEMPORARILY EXTEND TOWARDS OUR DIRECTION AND WARM
THINGS UP A BIT FOR THE WEEKEND.

EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK...THE UPPER RIDGE WILL RE-CENTER ITSELF
OVER THE SOUTHWEST CONUS WITH A VERY BROAD AND DEEP TROUGH TAKING
SHAPE ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY. THIS SHOULD BE GOOD
ENOUGH TO PUSH A SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER AIRMASS INTO THE DEEP
SOUTH...MOST LIKELY FELT BY THE TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY TIME-FRAME.

88

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF DISCUSSION.

A BROAD UPPER LOW SHIFTING WESTWARD ACROSS ALABAMA WILL BRING SCT
SHWRS TO EAST ALABAMA BEFORE 12Z. LCL IFR CIGS HAVE ALREADY FORMED
ACROSS SOUTHEAST ALABAMA AND THE IFR CIGS WILL LIKELY EXPAND EAST
AND NORTHEAST DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE IFR CIGS WILL BE
MOSTLY CONFINED TO KMGM AND KTOI... ALTHOUGH THERE IS A SMALL
CHANCE THE IFR CIGS COULD REACH FARTHER NORTH TOWARDS THE I-20
CORRIDOR. SHWRS WILL INCREASE OVER THE REMAINDER OF CENTRAL
ALABAMA AFTER 12Z AS THE UPPER LOW SHIFTS INTO MISSISSIPPI AND
PLACES ALABAMA ON THE MOIST AND MORE UNSTABLE SIDE OF UPPER
SYSTEM. THE MAJORITY OF THE PCPN WILL BE IN THE FORM OF
SHWRS...BUT ISOLD TSTMS POSSIBLE ANYWHERE.

58/ROSE


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     86  69  88  71  86 /  50  20  30  30  50
ANNISTON    87  70  89  72  87 /  50  20  30  20  50
BIRMINGHAM  87  72  89  74  88 /  50  20  40  20  50
TUSCALOOSA  89  71  90  73  89 /  50  20  30  20  50
CALERA      86  70  89  73  88 /  50  20  30  20  50
AUBURN      86  71  88  72  88 /  50  20  20  20  40
MONTGOMERY  89  71  91  73  91 /  50  20  20  20  40
TROY        88  70  91  71  89 /  50  20  30  20  40

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$








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