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Area Forecast Discussion

443
FXUS64 KBMX 180937
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
437 AM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

.DISCUSSION...

A RATHER DREARY DAY IS SHAPING UP FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA
ESPECIALLY EAST OF INTERSTATE 59 AS A LARGE RAIN SHIELD SPREADS
NORTHWARD FROM THE GULF. SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS IN THE NORTHERN GULF
HAS OCCURRED IN RESPONSE TO A DIGGING AND DEEPENING TROUGH OVER
THE REGION. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT HAS TIGHTENED AS A SURFACE RIDGE
AXIS OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES NOSED ITS WAY INTO GEORGIA...
CREATING A COOL WEDGE. THIS WEDGE WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM
RISING MUCH TODAY IN THE PRESENCE OF WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND RAIN.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN STEADY IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S ACROSS
THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA...WHICH IS ABOUT 20 DEGREES BELOW
AVERAGE. THE RAIN SHIELD WILL BE A BIT SLOW TO MOVE OUT OF OUR
EASTERN AREAS AS A TROWAL DEVELOPS AROUND A CLOSED UPPER. TOTAL
RAINFALL SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 85 COULD REACH 2-3 INCHES...BUT THE
RAINFALL RATES SHOULD NOT BE HIGH ENOUGH TO PRODUCE FLASH
FLOODING. ANY LEFTOVER LIGHT RAIN WILL LIKELY COME TO AN END
NEAR THE AL/GA STATE LINE BY LATE SATURDAY MORNING.

DRIER AND WARMER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON
ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM
THE MID 60S EAST TO MID 70S WEST. WARMER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
INTO SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS WE AWAIT THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM ON LATE
MONDAY. THAT SYSTEM WILL NOT BE AS DYNAMIC AS THE ONE WE ARE
CURRENTLY DEALING WITH...BUT THE ASSOCIATED WEAK COLD FRONT SHOULD
TRIGGER SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL LEAD TO DRIER CONDITIONS FOR WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY.

87/GRANTHAM

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF DISCUSSION.

VFR CONDITIONS CURRENTLY ACROSS THE TERMINALS. THE BULK OF THE
PRECIPITATION IS CURRENTLY LOCATED ALONG THE GULF COAST BUT IT IS
MAKING NORTHWARD PROGRESSION AND SHOULD MOVE INTO KTOI AND KMGM
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. EXPECT CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN MVFR
AT THE SOUTHERN TERMINALS FOR A MAJORITY OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
MOISTURE AND ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE INCREASE NEAR SUNRISE AND EXPECT A
PERIOD OF IFR CEILINGS BETWEEN 11-20Z FOR KTOI AND KMGM.
ADDITIONALLY...RAINFALL COULD BE HEAVY ENOUGH ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
TERMINALS FOR IFE VISIBILITIES AT TIMES. THE RAIN SHIELD WILL HAVE
A SHARP CUTOFF FURTHER NORTH. MODELS VARY GREATLY ON THIS CUT OFF
BUT EXPECT IT WILL BE SOMEWHERE AROUND THE NORTHERN TERMINALS. FOR
NOW...HAVE LEFT IN SHOWER AS THE PRECIPITATION IS CURRENTLY MOVING
NORTHWARD FAIRLY QUICKLY. CONDITIONS ACROSS THE NORTH SHOULD
GENERALLY REMAIN VFR WITH SOME BORDERLINE MVFR CONDITIONS
PROBABLE.

NOTE...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILL BE ISSUING SEASONAL
TERMINAL FORECASTS FOR THE TALLADEGA MUNICIPAL AIRPORT (KASN) IN
TALLADEGA...ALABAMA. THE FORECASTS WILL BE ISSUED FROM APRIL 20TH
00Z THROUGH AT LEAST MAY 8TH 00Z. DUE TO THE LIMITED AVAILABILITY
OF OBSERVATIONS...KASN TAF WILL HAVE AMD NOT SKED APPENDED TO THE
END OF THE FORECAST.

05/MA

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     58  50  71  49  76 /  70  50  10   0   0
ANNISTON    57  50  69  50  76 / 100  60  20   0   0
BIRMINGHAM  58  50  73  50  77 /  70  40  10   0   0
TUSCALOOSA  65  50  76  50  79 /  60  20  10   0   0
CALERA      57  51  73  51  77 /  90  40  10   0   0
AUBURN      55  48  65  50  73 / 100  80  20  10   0
MONTGOMERY  56  50  70  51  77 / 100  60  10   0   0
TROY        56  49  67  50  75 / 100  60  20   0   0

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

87/05





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