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Area Forecast Discussion

460
FXUS64 KBMX 281906
AFDBMX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
206 PM CDT TUE JUN 28 2016

.DISCUSSION...

Showers and storms will continue to form through the afternoon
mainly south of I-20 as a weak front moves slowly southward. This
activity should diminish through the evening with the loss of
daytime heating.

A weak trough at 500mb with slow movement is forecast to persist
over the region through Friday which will cause the front to
become nearly stationary across our Southeast counties. Will
maintain 20-40 POPs for that area with the highest chances south
of I-85. Meanwhile the rest of the CWA should remain rain-free.

The latest model trends are a bit drier for Saturday into the
early part of next week with higher heights in place. This may
cause a weak front and higher rain chances to remain north of the
forecast area.

87/Grantham

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF Discussion.

Clouds are gradually mixing out early this afternoon, and all
sites should be VFR shortly. Scattered showers and storms will
develop this afternoon, but coverage should be much lower than
what was observed on Monday. Therefore, only VCTS was added to the
TAFS for this afternoon. VFR conditions should continue through
the overnight period, as drier air pushes southward with a cold
front and rain chances diminishing. Prevailing surface winds will
be northerly through the forecast period.

56/GDG

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Rain chances remain fairly high through this evening especially
across the southern half of the state as a front moves southward.
Isolated shower/storm activity will remain possible across the
southeast on Wednesday, with drier and less humid conditions
expected across the North. No fire weather concerns are expected
at this time.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden     67  90  63  90  64 /  20  10  10  10  10
Anniston    68  91  65  90  65 /  20  10  10  10  10
Birmingham  71  91  68  91  69 /  20  10  10  10  10
Tuscaloosa  70  92  67  91  68 /  30  10  10  10  10
Calera      70  92  67  91  69 /  30  10  10  10  10
Auburn      72  90  70  89  70 /  40  20  20  20  20
Montgomery  72  92  70  93  71 /  40  20  20  20  20
Troy        72  89  69  90  70 /  40  30  30  30  20

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$



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