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Area Forecast Discussion

567
FXUS64 KBMX 032035
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
335 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

.DISCUSSION...

TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE MID 90S THIS HOUR. A WEAK BOUNDARY OR
AREA OF SLIGHT ENHANCEMENT MAY BE NEAR THE AUBURN TO TROY AREAS
THIS AFTERNOON BUT WILL NOT INCLUDE ANY MENTION OF SHOWERS DUE TO
THE VERY LOW COVERAGE POTENTIAL. SIMILARLY IN THE NORTHWEST WHERE
A FEW SHOWERS ARE NEAR THE FLORENCE AREA. WARMER LOW LEVEL AIR TO
THE WEST OF ALABAMA WILL CONTINUE SHIFTING EASTWARD AND WILL
PROVIDE FOR ANOTHER DAY (TUESDAY) OF TEMPERATURES IN THE 95 TO 100
DEGREE RANGE WITH THE HOTTEST TEMPERATURES IN THE WEST.

BY WEDNESDAY A SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL PUSH INTO THE MIDWEST
STATES AND PULL DEEPER MOISTURE INTO ALABAMA. TEMPERATURES WILL
STILL BE ABOVE NORMAL ON WEDNESDAY...AND THE HEATING OF THE DAY
WILL TRIGGER ISOLATED SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS.

BY THURSDAY THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL BE MOVING INTO THE OHIO
AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS. THIS FEATURE IS MORE WELL DEFINED ON THE
EURO AND COULD POSE AN INCREASE IN A MARGINALLY SEVERE THREAT
DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE DAY. CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO
INCLUDE IN THE HWO.

NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL ALLOW SEVERAL MORE IMPULSES TO TRACK
TOWARDS ALABAMA FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...AND WILL CONTINUE WITH GOOD
RAIN CHANCES EACH DAY. THE TIMING OF THESE FEATURES HAS BEEN
SOMEWHAT INCONSISTENT. IT STILL APPEARS THAT A DRYING TREND WILL
DEVELOP BY SUNDAY...WITH THE BETTER RAIN CHANCES SHIFTING TOWARDS
THE GULF COAST REGION.

88

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. LIGHT MVFR
FOG IS POSSIBLE EARLY TUESDAY MORNING AT TOI...WHERE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE IS SLIGHTLY HIGHER. WINDS WILL VARY FROM THE NORTHEAST TO
NORTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON AS A WEAK FRONTAL REMAINS ACROSS SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE AREA. WINDS UP TO 8 KTS ARE POSSIBLE AT TIMES BEFORE
DIMINISHING WITH SUNSET.

14


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MORNING. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL SLOWLY INCREASE TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY WITH A RETURN OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BY THE MIDDLE
OF THE WEEK...ESPECIALLY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     68  97  72  94  72 /   0  10  10  20  20
ANNISTON    68  96  72  94  72 /   0  10  10  20  20
BIRMINGHAM  71  98  75  94  74 /   0  10  10  30  30
TUSCALOOSA  69 100  74  96  73 /   0  10  10  30  20
CALERA      68  96  72  93  71 /   0  10  10  30  20
AUBURN      72  96  73  92  72 /   0  10  10  30  20
MONTGOMERY  70  99  74  95  75 /   0  10  10  30  20
TROY        70  98  73  94  73 /   0  10  10  20  20

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$



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