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Area Forecast Discussion

711
FXUS64 KBMX 301753
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1253 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 18Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

WIDESPREAD RAIN EVENT UNDER WAY ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA. HAVE
UPDATED POPS TO CATEGORICAL ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA. WE WILL SEE
SOME REDEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON...QUESTIONS IN REGARDS TO
SEVERITY THOUGH ARE ABUNDANT. MADE SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO HIGHS
AS WELL...AS CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP THE AREA COOLER THROUGH THE
MORNING. MIGHT BE QUITE A GRADIENT TEMPERATURE WISE IN THE
SOUTHEAST AS WELL. UPDATES ARE OUT.

16


&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY AN EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORM WILL MOVE ACROSS
MGM/TOI THIS AFTERNOON...WITH BRIEF VIS DROPS TO MVFR POSSIBLE.
HAVE INCLUDED VCTS THERE AND WILL WATCH TOI FOR TSTORM
DEVELOPMENT. ACROSS THE NORTHERN SITES...TSTORM REDEVELOPMENT IN
THE WAKE OF THIS MORNINGS ACTIVITY IS UNCERTAIN...AND WILL HOLD
OFF ON VCTS UNTIL AFTER 21Z WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH STILL
NEARBY. ALSO...STILL GETTING SOME WIND GUSTS OF 15-20 KTS DESPITE
THE CLOUDCOVER. EXPECT ACTIVITY TO DIE OFF THIS EVENING...BUT
COULDN`T RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SHOWER/STORM GIVEN AVAILABLE
MOISTURE AND POTENTIAL IMPULSES COMING DOWN FROM THE NW. MODEL
GUIDANCE IS INDICATING POTENTIAL FOR MVFR VIS/CIGS TO DEVELOP LATE
TONIGHT. EXPECT SHOWERS/STORMS TO POTENTIALLY REDEVELOP TOMORROW
MORNING ACROSS THE NORTH.

32/DAVIS

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE
DAY...WITH FREQUENT LIGHTNING. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 308 AM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015/

VARIOUS SHORTWAVE TROUGHS RIDING THROUGH THE LONG WAVE TROUGH IN
THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY WILL BRING IN AND THEN KEEP AN
UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN FOR CENTRAL ALABAMA. ONE SUCH SHORTWAVE
WAS HELPING TO SET OFF CONVECTION OVERNIGHT THAT HAS DRIFTED INTO
NORTHERN ALABAMA. WHILE THIS ACTIVITY MAY REACH A LULL DURING THE
PREDAWN HOURS...IT SHOULD PICK BACK UP AS CONDITIONS WARM AND
DESTABILIZE LATER THIS MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON. LIKELY POPS
REMAIN JUSTIFIED FOR A LARGE PART OF OUR AREA.

AS MENTIONED IN THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...TIMING SUBSEQUENT
SHORTWAVES (AND ASSOCIATED STORMY WEATHER) BECOMES INCREASINGLY
PROBLEMATIC. WILL THEREFORE NEED TO MAINTAIN CHANCE POPS FOR A
LARGE PART OF THE 7 DAY FORECAST...ESPECIALLY DURING AFTERNOON
PEAK HEATING TIMES.

THE GENERAL TROUGHINESS IN THE EASTERN PART OF THE COUNTRY WILL
HELP KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM GETTING TOO OUT OF HAND HOT.

/61/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     68  87  71  83  70 /  20  60  60  70  50
ANNISTON    68  88  71  85  70 /  30  50  50  70  40
BIRMINGHAM  71  88  73  86  72 /  20  50  50  70  40
TUSCALOOSA  70  90  74  90  73 /  20  50  40  60  40
CALERA      70  88  72  87  72 /  30  50  50  60  40
AUBURN      69  88  71  87  72 /  50  40  40  60  40
MONTGOMERY  71  91  73  91  74 /  40  40  40  50  30
TROY        70  91  72  90  73 /  50  40  40  40  20

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$



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