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Area Forecast Discussion

905
FXUS64 KBMX 011639
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1139 AM CDT FRI AUG 1 2014

.UPDATE...
MORNING UPDATE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

STRATUS DECK AND INCREASED MOISTURE HAS PUSHED WESTWARD INTO
ALABAMA. THESE CLOUDS WERE ROUGHLY FROM BIRMINGHAM TO GADSDEN TO
MONTGOMERY AND EASTWARD. THE LOW CLOUD COVER WAS HOLDING TEMPS IN
THE LOW TO MID 70S. WEST...WE ARE SEEING SOME SUN AND TEMPS HAVE
JUMPED INTO THE LOW 80S WITH A CUMULUS FIELD DEVELOPING.

ONE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WAS EXITING EASTWARD THROUGH GEORGIA
WHILE WEAK SURFACE LOW WAS BACK OVER LOUISIANA. AS FAR AS POPS ARE
CONCERNING...THE OVERALL FORCING IS RATHER WEAK WHILE INSTABILITY
IS ALSO ON THE WEAK SIDE. LEFT RAIN CHANCES GENERALLY NEAR NORMAL
FOR SUMMER AROUND 35 PERCENT. MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO THE HOURLY
GRIDS BASED ON CLOUD COVER AND LOWERED HIGHS IN THE EAST.

75

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF DISCUSSION.

LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH WIDESPREAD
MID-LEVEL CLOUDS PERSISTING. SPOTTY LIGHT SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE BUT
CONFIDENCE IN TIMING AND LOCATION IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE ANYTHING
SPECIFIC IN THE TAFS. REGARDLESS...VIS/CIGS SHOULD NOT BE GREATLY
IMPACTED BY SHOWER ACTIVITY. WILL MONITOR THE IFR/MVFR STRATUS
DECK CREEPING WESTWARD ACROSS EAST ALABAMA FOR POSSIBLE AMENDMENTS
AT KTOI AND KMGM...BUT FOR NOW WILL ONLY SHOW THIS AFFECTING
KANB THROUGH 17Z.

87/GRANTHAM


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 519 AM CDT FRI AUG 1 2014/

THIS MORNING WE HAVE ABUNDANT MID/UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS FOR THE MOST
PART ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOME STRATUS
ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN COUNTIES OF THE STATE. NORTHEAST/EASTERLY
LIGHT LOW LEVEL FLOW OVERNIGHT HAS HELPED WITH THE STRATUS
TRANSPORT. THE CLOUD COVER AND WINDS HAVE KEPT TEMPERATURES MILDER
ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE STATE ESPECIALLY. A STALLED
BOUNDARY REMAINS ACROSS THE COAST. THE SURFACE LOW ASSOCIATED WITH
IT IS EXPECTED TO WAFFLE/ALONG THE COAST OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
OVERALL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE WITH A FEW SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE TODAY WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND SOME WEAK
UPPER SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH THE BASE OF THE EASTERN U.S.
TROUGH.

AS WE MOVE INTO THE WEEKEND INTO THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK...
TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE AS THE COOLER FLOW IS CUT OFF WITH
WARMEST READINGS IN THE SOUTH/WEST AS SOME OF THE SOUTHEAST COULD
BE A DEGREE OR SO MILDER DEPENDING ON ONSET OF CONVECTION WITH THE
EAST FLOW. RAIN CHANCES SHOULD INCREASE AS WE MOVE INTO THE
WEEKEND AS THE SURFACE LOW ALONG THE COAST INTERACTS WITH WEAK
UPPER SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH THE BASE OF THE UPPER LOW PRESSURE
TROUGH OVER EASTERN CANADA THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND.
ALSO...THE UPPER TROUGH SHOULD DIG DECENTLY ACROSS THE
SOUTHEASTERN U.S. AS WE PROGRESS THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS THE MAIN
LOW MOVES INTO THE ATLANTIC SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

BY TUESDAY...THE REMAINING ENERGY FROM THE UPPER TROUGH LOOKS TO
WEAKEN WITH A FLATTENING FLOW BY WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE NORTHEAST
U.S. AND RIDGING BUILDING OVER THE SOUTHWEST U.S. AND THE
EASTERN GULF INTO THE CARIBBEAN WITH VERY WEAK FLOW IN BETWEEN AS
WE MOVE INTO MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THUS...WE ARE LOOKING TO RETURN
TO A MORE SUMMERTIME LIKE DIURNALLY INFLUENCED PATTERN.

AT THIS TIME WE ARE NOT LOOKING AT ANY BIG IMPACTS FROM BERTHA AS
SHE SHOULD REMAIN FAR TO THE EAST OF ALABAMA OVER THE CARIBBEAN
AND ATLANTIC.

08/MK

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     84  67  86  67  86 /  40  30  50  30  40
ANNISTON    84  68  85  67  85 /  40  30  50  40  50
BIRMINGHAM  86  69  86  69  87 /  40  20  50  30  40
TUSCALOOSA  89  69  87  69  89 /  40  20  50  30  40
CALERA      86  69  86  70  87 /  40  20  50  40  40
AUBURN      86  69  86  70  85 /  40  30  50  40  60
MONTGOMERY  88  71  89  71  88 /  40  20  50  40  60
TROY        88  69  88  71  87 /  40  20  50  40  60

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$







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