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Area Forecast Discussion

706
FXUS64 KBMX 260506
AFDBMX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
1206 AM CDT MON SEP 26 2016

.UPDATE...
For 06Z Aviation.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Looks like the run of record-setting temperatures will finally
come to an end on Monday. First significant cold front of the
season was making its way southeastward this afternoon, and it is
on track to enter Alabama on Monday. Latest computer model
projections put the front into our northwestern counties before
noon tomorrow, and getting through the rest of central Alabama
around noon on Tuesday. Given the moderate amount of instability
and low level moisture ahead of the front, and an adequate amount
of lift along it, it still looks like chance POPs are justified
during the Monday through Tuesday time frame. Axis of highest rain
chances will obviously move southeastward with the progression of
the front.

The front is forecast to stall, or at least slow down, as it
approaches the coast during the mid-week period. Meanwhile, an
upper level low is forecast to become established in the eastern
portion of the country, that should help bring a secondary surge
of cooler and drier air into our neck of the woods. There will
probably be a bit of instability associated with the cold air
aloft within the upper level low, but my feeling is that this
would (at most) just cause a bit more cu to form in our northern
counties towards the and of the upcoming work week. Therefore,
will maintain a dry forecast after the frontal-related convection
exits the picture on Tuesday.

And watch the tropics closely.

/61/


&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF Discussion.

A couple thunderstorms have developed between MGM and TOI. They
have moved past TOI but will reach the vicinity of MGM early in
the period. A stray shower/storm is possible elsewhere but
coverage is too low to mention. Model guidance is trying to
indicate low clouds developing near TOI near sunrise with
southeasterly flow developing; however, low-level moisture is
expected to be insufficient to produce any low cigs. A cold front
will move through the northern TAF sites Monday afternoon/early
evening, resulting in a broken line of thunderstorms that was
timed out with a PROB30 at the northern sites and a shift from
southerly to northwesterly winds.

32/Davis

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Slight chance of isolated showers/storms on Sunday. A front with
better rain chances will move through on Monday into Tuesday
morning. Beginning Tuesday afternoon, drier weather returns for
the remainder of the week. No fire weather concerns are
anticipated.

25/Owen

&&

.CLIMATE...

Today was the latest date that is has been 98 degrees or warmer
in Birmingham. The previous record was 99 degrees on September
24th, way back in 1931.

Record Highs for Sunday September 25th:

Birmingham  97   1921    98 2016
Tuscaloosa  97   1961    98 2016
Anniston    96   1931    98 2016
Montgomery  97   2010    98 2016

Additionally, with the prospect of cooler weather coming into the
area later this week, we will see temperatures fall to values we
haven`t seen in quite some time. Some of these stretches are
approaching record or near record length. These statistics are
through yesterday.

Last date with a minimum temperature below 60:

Location     Date     Days Since  Rank    Record/year

Birmingham   5/24/16  123 days    6th     135/1921
Tuscaloosa   5/24/16  123 days    2nd     136/1978
Anniston     6/9/16   107 days    5th     113/1994
Montgomery   5/24/16  123 days    40th    169/1936

Last date with a maximum temperature below 80:

Location     Date     Days Since  Rank    (Previous)Record/year

Birmingham   5/20/16  127 days    2nd     128/1962
Tuscaloosa   5/16/16  131 days    3rd     146/1962
Anniston     5/20/16  127 days    1st     (127/1962)
Montgomery   5/20/16  127 days    11th    158/1977

JD/02

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden     87  62  82  52  82 /  50  30  10  10   0
Anniston    89  65  82  54  83 /  50  40  10  10   0
Birmingham  89  64  83  56  84 /  40  30  10  10   0
Tuscaloosa  92  64  84  56  85 /  40  20  10  10   0
Calera      90  65  84  57  85 /  40  30  10  10   0
Auburn      89  68  86  60  85 /  40  30  30  10   0
Montgomery  92  69  88  61  87 /  40  30  20  10   0
Troy        91  67  87  62  86 /  40  30  30  10   0

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$



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