National Weather Service Weather Forecast Office

Area Forecast Discussion

974
FXUS64 KBMX 190508 AAA
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1208 AM CDT WED JUN 19 2013

.UPDATE...
AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

THE TWO MAIN OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES THAT POPPED UP EARLIER TODAY HAVE
MOVED SOUTHWARD OUT OF THE AREA (THE SOUTHERN ONE) AND DISSIPATED
(THE NORTHERN ONE). HAVE BEEN WATCHING THE PROGRESS OF THE LARGER
AREA OF SHOWERS AND STORMS NEAR THE MS RIVER...AND THAT APPEARS TO
BE MOVING DUE EAST. I WOULD SUSPECT THAT MUCH/MOST OF THE LATTER
RAIN AREA WILL ALSO DISSIPATE OR GET PINCHED FARTHER SOUTH AS IT
TRIES TO EDGE EASTWARD THE REST OF TONIGHT. EVEN SO...I THINK IT
IS PRUDENT TO KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE AND LOW CHANCE POPS IN FOR THE
REST OF THE NIGHT FROM ROUGHLY DEMOPOLIS/WETUMPKA/AUBURN
SOUTHWARD. OTHERWISE...CLOUDS SHOULD REMAIN ABUNDANT AND FOG
REMAINS A POSSIBILITY. WILL CATCH LAST MINUTE TEMP TRENDS AT THE
TOP OF THE HOUR AND HAVE UPDATED FORECASTS OUT SHORTLY THEREAFTER.

/61/

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF DISCUSSION.

AN EXTENSIVE CIRRUS SHIELD FROM CONVECTION TO OUR SOUTHWEST IN
SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI CONTINUES TO SPREAD INTO THE AREA. ALL SHOWERS
LOCALLY HAVE DISSIPATED. CANNOT RULE OUT A SHOWER OR TWO OVERNIGHT
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTH...BUT CHANCES ARE VERY LOW. FRONT WILL
LIKELY HANG UP ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT...AND
BEGIN TO MAKE MORE PROGRESS SOUTHWARD DURING THE DAY TOMORROW.
THERES A CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM AT MGM AND TOI
TOMORROW...BUT CONFIDENCE IS TO LOW ON HOW WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY WILL
BE TO INCLUDE A MENTION OF TS AT THIS TIME.

CHALLENGE OVERNIGHT WILL BE THE BALANCE BETWEEN FOG AND LOW CLOUDS.
SURFACE CONDITIONS AND LOW LEVELS REMAIN RATHER MOIST AND TEMPS
SHOULD DROP TO NEAR THE DEW POINT EVEN BEHIND THE FRONT OVERNIGHT.
WHILE THE CIRRUS CLOUDS WILL HELP PREVENT WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS FROM
DEVELOPING...THEY WILL AID IN FOG DEVELOPMENT. EET AND TCL DROPPED
SIGNIFICANTLY EARLIER THIS EVENING THEN SHOWED SIGNS OF IMPROVEMENT
ONCE THICKER CIRRUS CLOUDS MOVED INTO THE AREA. THIS WILL MAKE FOR A
TRICKY FORECAST OVERNIGHT...AND POSSIBLY MANY AMENDMENTS.

14

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$