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Area Forecast Discussion

129
FXUS64 KBMX 040242
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
942 PM CDT SUN MAY 3 2015

.UPDATE...
EVENING UPDATE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL AND CENTERED JUST EAST
OF CENTRAL ALABAMA. THEREFORE...LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL
CONTINUE. THE AIR MASS MIXED OUT NICELY TODAY WITH CROSSOVER
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 40S. DUE TO THIS DRYING...DO NOT EXPECT
MUCH IN THE WAY OF FOG FORMATION EXCEPT MAYBE IN CLOSE PROXIMITY
TO WATER AND RURAL SOUTHERN LOCATIONS. BUT IF A FEW OUTLYING
LOCATIONS CAN DIP INTO THE 40S OR SOME LIGHT MOISTURE ADVECTION
OCCURS...SOME FOG MAY BECOME POSSIBLE. DID NOT MENTION AT THIS
TIME DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE. MADE ADJUSTMENTS TO THE HOURLY TEMP
AND DEW POINT TRENDS...OTHERWISE THE FORECAST LOOKS GOOD
OVERNIGHT.

75

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION.

THE ONLY POSSIBLE EXCEPTION TO CONTINUED VFR CONDITIONS OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS WILL BE AT TCL...WHERE SOME LIGHT (MVFR CATEGORY) FOG
COULD DRIFT OVER THE FIELD FROM THE NEARBY WATER BODY.
OTHERWISE...CLEAR TO SCATTERED CLOUDS AT MOST THROUGH MONDAY
AFTERNOON.

/61/


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 155 PM CDT SUN MAY 3 2015/

ANOTHER BEAUTIFUL SUNNY SPRING DAY ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA.
TEMPERATURES ARE A COUPLE OF DEGREES WARMER THIS AFTERNOON THAN
YESTERDAY WITH READINGS CURRENTLY IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOW 80S ACROSS
THE AREA. THERE ARE ALSO A FEW MORE CLOUDS ACROSS THE AREA WITH A
SLIGHT INCREASE IN MOISTURE. CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RAP
UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATES AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE
CENTRAL CONUS. HIGHER UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS ARE BUILDING INTO THE
AREA AND WILL KEEP THE FORECAST WARM AND DRY. AT THE SURFACE...A
HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD WITH LIGHT
SURFACE FLOW ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA. FOR TONIGHT...EXPECT
TEMPERATURES WILL BE A COUPLE OF DEGREES WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT
WITH LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW. EXPECT LOWS WILL BE IN THE 50S ACROSS
THE AREA WITH SOME OF THE RADIATONAL COOLING LOCATIONS ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST POSSIBLY DROPPING INTO THE UPPER 40S.

THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST CONTINUES TO BE MOSTLY UNCHANGED
WITH DRY AND WARMER CONDITIONS EXPECTED THIS WEEK. THE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED
ACROSS THE AREA THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE WORK WEEK. PW VALUES WILL
GENERALLY BE UNDER AN INCH THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD WHICH IS
BELOW NORMAL FOR EARLY TO MID-MAY. THESE HIGHER HEIGHTS ALOFT
SHOULD KEEP CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IN CHECK AND WILL INCREASE
AFTERNOON HIGHS THROUGHOUT THE WEEK. EXPECT HIGHS LATE IN THE WEEK
WILL BE IN THE UPPER 80S WITH A FEW PLACES MAKING IT INTO THE LOW
90S. MODEL CONTINUE TO SHOW A SYSTEM OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST MID TO
LATE IN THE WEEK BUT THE FORECAST AREA SHOULD REMAIN IN THE DRY
SUBSIDENT AREA.

05/MA

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     53  81  56  82  57 /   0  10   0  10   0
ANNISTON    54  82  57  82  58 /   0  10   0  10   0
BIRMINGHAM  56  83  58  83  60 /   0  10   0   0   0
TUSCALOOSA  56  84  58  85  60 /   0   0   0   0   0
CALERA      53  83  59  83  60 /   0   0   0   0   0
AUBURN      55  81  58  80  58 /   0   0   0   0   0
MONTGOMERY  56  85  60  84  60 /   0   0   0   0   0
TROY        54  83  59  83  59 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$



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