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Area Forecast Discussion

889
FXUS64 KBMX 261811
AFDBMX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
111 PM CDT TUE JUL 26 2016

.UPDATE...
For 18Z Aviation.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Central Alabama remains between two upper ridges, one centered
near the 4 corners region and the other just off the Atlantic
seaboard. The relative weakness between the ridges will allow for
scattered convection during the afternoon/evening although we are
close enough to the eastern ridge to limit convection in some of
the eastern counties today and tomorrow.

The Atlantic ridge slowly breaks down late week with the upper
level trough shifting eastward and closer to the forecast area.
This will give at least scattered convection with the highest
POPs across the N/NW portions of Central Alabama, which will be
closer to the approaching upper trough. The upper trough will be
firmly in place across the eastern CONUS over the weekend and
will give above average rain chances Saturday, Sunday and probably
Monday as well.

Temperatures will fall between the 88 to 95 range with the cooler
numbers coming on the cloudier and higher precip days. Still very
muggy with dew points staying in the 70s. Heat indices averaging
between 95 and 100.

88


&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF Discussion.

Afternoon satellite and obs show VFR conditions across the
northern sites as daytime heating develops some altocumulus and
cumulus. As for southern sites a surface trough along the gulf
coast and aided by the seabreeze has pushed a few rain showers and
isolated thunderstorms towards TOI currently and approaching MGM
site. With the dry air in place these storms and showers are only
expected to persist for a short while this afternoon until sunset.
KEET and KTCL may see a brief shower or two with brief rumble as
well late in the afternoon. The rest of the sites are expected to
remain free from convection. After sunset, calm conditions will
resume and persist through the night for all sites. Winds outside
of thunderstorms will remain out of the south and hover around
10kts. Early tomorrow morning due to the previously mentioned
southerly flow overrunning the night`s cool air, a low- level deck
of stratus will develop across the entire CWA, bringing flight
conditions down to at least MVFR.

92

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected over
the next several days with highs in the 90s. Surface winds will be
rather light and generally from the south to southeast, although
some variability will also exist. Since surface dew points are so
high, critical fire weather thresholds are not expected to be met
with no watches or warnings anticipated.

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$



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