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Area Forecast Discussion

082
FXUS64 KBMX 110355
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
955 PM CST WED FEB 10 2016

.UPDATE...
EVENING UPDATE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

EARLIER CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN PORTION OF THE CWA HAS
PUSHED TO THE EAST LEAVING MUCH OF THE AREA UNDER CLEAR TO MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES. REGIONAL RADAR COMPOSITES SHOW NO REMAINING ECHOES
ACROSS THE FAR NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES. BASED UPON THESE TRENDS
OPTED TO CONFINE CLOUD COVER TO THE FAR NORTHEAST COUNTIES AND
PRECIPITATION CHANGES LARGELY TO NORTHERN CHEROKEE COUNTY.

ADJUSTED TEMPERATURE AND DEW POINT MINIMUMS ALONG WITH HOURLY
TRENDS BASED UPON CURRENT SURFACE OBSERVATIONS ALONG WITH CURRENT
SATELLITE AND RADAR DATA. SURFACE WINDS HAVE RECENTLY DECOUPLED
ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA, SUPPORTING STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING
PROCESSES.

MODEL GUIDANCE DEPICTS A MAXIMUM IN THE NORTHERN STREAM JET THAT WILL
DIVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS ILLINOIS INTO SOUTHERN INDIANA AND NORTHERN
KENTUCKY. THE ASSOCIATED VORTICITY MAXIMUM WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST
INTO EAST TENNESSE TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW. AN INCREASING AMPLITUDE
IN THE 500 MB PATTERN IS EXPECTED WITH A DIGGING TROUGH ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST. THAT WILL PROMOTE DEVELOPMENT OF MORE CLOUDS TOMORROW
AND TOMORROW NIGHT THAT WILL AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE CWA,
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHEAST COUNTIES.

FOR NEAR-SURFACE CONDITIONS, EXPECT A REMAINING SLIGHT CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION THIS EVENING ACROSS FAR NORTHEAST COUNTIES WITH DRY
CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE OVERNIGHT AND THROUGH THURSDAY. A WEAK COLD
FRONT LOCATED ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY TONIGHT IS FORECAST TO
SLIDE SOUTHEAST. IN ADDITION, A WEAK SURFACE LOW OVER THE CENTRAL
PLAINS WILL MOVE EAST ALONG THE SURFACE FRONT TOMORROW WITH THE
FRONT PUSHING SOUTH OF THE CWA TOMORROW NIGHT WHILE THE LOW MOVES
INTO GEORGIA. THE AIRMASS IS EXPECTED TO BE TOO DRY FOR ANY
PRECIPITATION TO OCCUR TOMORROW WITH THE CLOUD COVER.

05/JH

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. SOME
MID-LEVEL CLOUDS WILL MOVE ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
ALABAMA THIS EVENING...BUT WILL QUICKLY MOVE EAST OF THE AREA OVER
THE NEXT FEW HOURS. SURFACE WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT.

56/GDG

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. MOISTURE
RETURNS TOMORROW AS A DRY FRONT DROPS THROUGH THE AREA. A WIND
SHIFT FROM SOUTH TO NORTH IS EXPECTED BUT 20FT WINDS WILL REMAIN
BELOW 10KTS. AFTER A WARM DAY ON FRIDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL COOL
WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S TO LOWER 50S OVER THE WEEKEND.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES RETURN SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY AS A STORM
SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF A WINTRY
MIX...HOWEVER A GREAT DEAL OF UNCERTAINTY EXISTS WITH THE FORECAST
DURING THAT TIMEFRAME.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     23  52  29  53  28 /  10   0   0  10   0
ANNISTON    25  54  30  55  30 /   0   0  10  10   0
BIRMINGHAM  28  56  32  56  31 /   0   0   0   0   0
TUSCALOOSA  28  60  33  58  34 /   0   0   0   0   0
CALERA      29  58  34  57  33 /   0   0   0   0   0
AUBURN      29  58  37  59  35 /   0   0  10  10   0
MONTGOMERY  29  64  38  63  37 /   0   0   0   0   0
TROY        29  66  40  63  38 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$



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