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Area Forecast Discussion

812
FXUS64 KBMX 232348
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
648 PM CDT WED APR 23 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 00Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

AN ABSOLUTELY BEAUTIFUL DAY ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA TODAY WITH
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S AND 80S. THE
CURRENT UPPER LEVEL PATTERN IS CHARACTERIZED BY A TROUGH OFF THE
ATLANTIC COAST WITH UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS INCREASING ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST AS A RIDGE PROGRESSES EASTWARD ACROSS THE MID-
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. LOOKING FURTHER TO THE WEST...THE NEXT
APPROACHING TROUGH IS CURRENTLY LOCATED ACROSS THE INTER-MOUNTAIN
WEST WITH ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH FURTHER TO THE NORTH IN
CANADA. THESE TWO UPPER LEVEL TROUGHS WILL BRING IN THE NEXT
CHANCE FOR RAIN LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. AT THE
SURFACE...A STATIONARY FRONT IS CURRENTLY LOCATED ALONG THE GULF
COAST AND SHOULD REMAIN THERE THROUGHOUT THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
DEWPOINTS HAVE STAYED UP TODAY ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE
CWA AND THERE COULD BE SOME PATCHY FOG ONCE AGAIN TONIGHT ACROSS
THE FAR SOUTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE FRONT WILL
RACE QUICKLY TO THE NORTH AS A WARM FRONT DURING THE DAY TOMORROW
WITH UPPER LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING SHORTWAVE
TROUGH. EVEN THOUGH CENTRAL ALABAMA WILL BE IN THE WARM SECTOR
TOMORROW...THE UPPER LEVEL FORCING WILL REMAIN WELL TO THE NORTH
AND WEST AND PW VALUES WILL REMAIN GENERALLY BELOW 1 INCH. RAIN
CHANCES INCREASE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING AS A SURFACE
LOW TRACKS ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY WITH A COLD FRONT
EXTENDING SOUTHWARD. MODELS HAVE BEEN COMING IN WITH LESS MOISTURE
BUT ARE PRETTY CONSISTENT WITH THE TIMING OF THE SYSTEM. HIGHEST
POPS WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTH...CLOSER TO THE LOW AND UPPER LEVEL
FEATURES. NOT EXPECTING ANY SEVERE WEATHER WITH LIMITED
INSTABILITY AND THE WEAK FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL
FEATURES. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA EARLY
FRIDAY AND STALL JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE UPPER
LEVEL SUPPORT WILL LIFT OFF EARLY FRIDAY AND EXPECT MOST OF THE
DAY WILL BE DRY EXCEPT FOR A FEW SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS DURING
THE MORNING.

TEMPERATURES WILL REALLY GO UP OVER THE WEEKEND. THE WARM FRONT
WILL QUICKLY RACE TO THE NORTH ON SATURDAY. UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS
WILL ONCE AGAIN INCREASE AND TEMPERATURES SHOULD PUSH UP INTO THE
LOW AND MID 80S ON BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. MOISTURE LOOKS RATHER
LIMITED OVER THE WEEKEND AND THERE WILL ALSO BE A DECENT CAP BASED
ON THE MODEL SOUNDINGS...THEREFORE...WENT AHEAD AND REMOVED POPS
FOR MOST OF THE WEEKEND.

THE BIG WEATHER STORY WILL BE THE SYSTEM EXPECTED TO ARRIVE MONDAY
INTO TUESDAY. EARLY NEXT WEEK A NEGATIVELY TILTED CLOSED UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE MID-MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. A
DECENT JET MAX WILL FORM AROUND THE BASE OF THIS TROUGH AND THERE
WILL BE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO FORM. IN
ADDITION...WITH WARM TEMPERATURES THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF
INSTABILITY ACROSS THE AREA. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE BEEN
PRETTY CONSISTENT WITH THIS FEATURE. MONDAY WILL BE A WARM DAY
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH TEMPERATURES UP INTO THE UPPER 70S
TO MID 80S. DEWPOINTS WILL NOT BE LACKING AND WILL BE IN THE MID
TO UPPER 60S. THIS WILL YIELD SBCAPE VALUES OF 1000 TO 1500 J/KG.
MODELS INDICATE A LOW LEVEL JET OF 40-50 KTS DEVELOPS MONDAY
AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY MORNING. THIS WILL INCREASE THE 0-1 KM SRH
TO VALUES SUFFICIENT FOR TORNADOGENESIS TO OCCUR. IN ADDITION...
THE DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE MORE THAN SUFFICIENT TO MAINTAIN
AND ORGANIZE UPDRAFTS. QUESTIONS STILL REMAIN ON TIMING AND
EVOLUTION OF THE SYSTEM BUT THE MODELS HAVE BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT
OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS.

05/MA

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION.

WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOME POSSIBLE MVFR FOG AT KTOI AROUND
DAYBREAK...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS
WITH LIGHT WINDS BECOMING SOUTHERLY ON THURSDAY.

NOTE...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IS NOW ISSUING SEASONAL
TERMINAL FORECASTS FOR THE TALLADEGA MUNICIPAL AIRPORT (KASN) IN
TALLADEGA...ALABAMA. THE FORECASTS WILL BE ISSUED THROUGH AT LEAST
MAY 8TH 00Z. DUE TO THE LIMITED AVAILABILITY OF OBSERVATIONS...
KASN TAF WILL HAVE AMD NOT SKED APPENDED TO THE END OF THE FORECAST.

87/GRANTHAM

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

05/87





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