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Area Forecast Discussion

053
FXUS64 KBMX 011750
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1250 PM CDT WED APR 1 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 18Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

THE LOW CLOUDS AND FOG THAT DEVELOPED EARLY THIS MORNING HAS DISSIPATED.
A LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY THAT PUSHED THROUGH THE EASTERN SIDE OF ALABAMA
WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR AFTERNOON CONVECTION. THE BOUNDARY WILL PROBABLY
BECOME MORE APPARENT IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS A CUMULUS FIELD DEVELOPS
ON THE MOIST SIDE OF THE AXIS. MODEL FORECASTS THE HIGHEST CAPE AND
INSTABILITY ACROSS WEST ALABAMA THIS AFTERNOON...WITH CAPE VALUES
NEAR 2000 J/KG. WILL MAINTAIN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SEVERE STORMS FOR
AREAS WEST OF I-65 THIS AFTERNOON. MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE NOT
AS STEEP AS YESTERDAY...BUT STILL HIGH ENOUGH TO MAINTAIN THE
THREAT OF LARGE HAIL.

58/ROSE

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THRU THE DAYLIGHT HOURS TODAY.
SCATTERED TSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATER THIS
AFTERNOON...MAINLY WEST OF INTERSTATE 65. THEREFORE DID NOT
MENTION TS AT ANY TERMINALS BUT TCL FOR NOW. TSTORM ACTIVITY COULD
CONTINUE THRU THE NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. LOOK FOR AMENDMENTS
TO TS FORECAST THROUGHOUT THE DAY AS CONVECTION DEVELOPS AND
CONFIDENCE IN POTENTIAL IMPACTS INCREASES.

FOR TONIGHT...THERE COULD BE A PERIOD OF LOW CIGS/VIS LATE TONIGHT
AND NEAR SUNRISE. HAVE DECIDED TO GO AHEAD AND AT LEAST INTRODUCE
A TEMPO FOR MVFR AT ALL TERMINALS FOR NOW. TAF SITES THAT SEE THE
HEAVIEST RAIN AND/OR ARE LOCATED NEAR LARGER BOUNDARIES WILL HAVE
THE MOST IMPACTS.

19

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 432 AM CDT WED APR 1 2015/

SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TWO
THIRDS OF CENTRAL ALABAMA THIS MORNING. THIS ACTIVITY HAS GREATLY
DECREASED IN INTENSITY. NUMEROUS REPORTS OF HAIL WERE RECEIVED
FROM THIS ACTIVITY FROM LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS ON
TUESDAY. WHATS LEFT OF THE QUASI STATIONARY FRONT WILL BE
REINFORCED BY A SYNOPTIC FRONT THAT IS MOVING SOUTHWARD ACROSS
SOUTHERN TENNESSEE. THIS BOUNDARY WILL NOT CLEAR THE AREA...IN
FACT...IT WILL MOVE BACK NORTHWARD LATER TONIGHT. THE ATMOSPHERE
HAS THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE SOME ADDITIONAL STRONG TO MARGINALLY
SEVERE STORMS TODAY...BUT ADDITIONAL UPPER SUPPORT IS NOT NEARLY
AS PREVALENT AS YESTERDAY. WILL MENTION A SMALL CHANCE OF
ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON GENERALLY
WEST OF I-65. THE THREAT WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS.

MEAN MOISTURE LESSENS ON THURSDAY AND EARLY FRIDAY...BUT THERE
WILL BE SOME SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCE NEAR THE EXITING
BOUNDARY TO THE NORTH. ANOTHER STRONG COLD FRONT ENTERS THE
PICTURE ON FRIDAY. MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS CONSISTENT WITH PREVIOUS
RUNS AND OUR FORECAST. THE MAIN UPPER FEATURES AND SURFACE LOW
EXIT WELL TO OUR NORTH AND NORTHEAST...BUT IT STILL APPEARS THERE
WILL BE ENOUGH BULK SHEAR AND FORCING NEAR THE FRONT FOR THE
MENTION OF SEVERE STORMS. THE THREAT WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS. THE STORMS WILL AFFECT AREAS IN THE NORTHWEST
AFTER 3 PM AND BEGIN DECREASING IN INTENSITY AS THEY PASS THE I-59
CORRIDOR IN THE EVENING.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY LOOK RAIN FREE AND COOLER OR AT LEAST CLOSER
TO NORMAL. SOUTHERLY FLOW AND A RETURN OF INSTABILITY WILL LEAD
TO RAIN CHANCES AGAIN MONDAY AND BEYOND. THE FLOW ALOFT BECOMES
SOUTHWEST WITH ONLY SUBTLE FEATURES RIDING THROUGH THE FLOW.
ANOTHER SYSTEM APPEARS ON THE HORIZON APRIL 7 TO 10TH TIME
FRAME...DETAILS CERTAINLY TO WORKED OUT LATER.

75

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     56  77  58  76  45 /  30  40  30  40  80
ANNISTON    56  78  58  79  49 /  30  30  20  30  70
BIRMINGHAM  59  80  60  78  47 /  30  30  20  50  80
TUSCALOOSA  60  82  62  80  48 /  30  30  20  60  80
CALERA      59  80  60  79  49 /  30  30  20  40  70
AUBURN      57  79  58  79  50 /  30  20  10  20  60
MONTGOMERY  59  83  59  83  52 /  30  20  10  30  60
TROY        58  82  57  82  54 /  30  20  10  10  50

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$



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