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Area Forecast Discussion

596
FXUS64 KBMX 271719
AFDBMX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
1219 PM CDT SAT AUG 27 2016

.UPDATE...
For 18Z Aviation.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
Today and Tonight.

We`ll start the day with clear skies and temps in the low/mid 70s,
with mostly sunny/partly cloudy skies by afternoon and temps warming
into the low/mid 90s. Maximum heat indices will be near 100 degrees,
but will remain below advisory criteria.

As far as rain chances go for today, overall not expecting much.
Better moisture resides over the N/NE portions of Central Alabama
with much drier air across the south. LAPS soundings indicate PW
values near 1.9 inches in Cherokee County and 1.3-1.4 inches near
Montgomery/Troy at 06Z. Some weak upper level energy will round the
base of the upper ridge (centered over the Virginias) and enter NE
AL late morning/early afternoon. The combination of higher moisture
and weak lift could result in isolated showers/storms across our far
N/NE counties by afternoon. The drier air across the south will
gradually shift northward thru the day, so, perhaps the best chance
for any development could be early afternoon, with chances dwindling
after that. However, can`t rule out a stray shower/storm in the
early evening, again in the far N. Expect dry conditions area wide
overnight with mostly clear skies and lows in the low 70s.

19

.LONG TERM...

The drier airmass, discussed in the short term, will begin to
exit the area Sunday morning and moisture returns generally to the
north during the afternoon. There should be enough moisture
return to help fire a few isolated to scattered showers/storms,
with the best coverage in the northeast. This activity could
continue into the early evening in the northeast, but should
dissipate after 10 pm.

As we work into the new work week, eyes will remain focused on the
Gulf of Mexico. The questions remain will it or won`t it develop.
Confidence continues to dwindle that is will develop now as the
ridge appears to maintain control of the area. The euro still
produces a low pressure system in the Gulf and slides it northwest
toward Louisiana. Question with this solution is how far north
will the rain bands make it into Central Alabama. The GFS really
keeps the main moisture along the coastline and never really get
the moisture into our neck of the woods. With the uncertainty can
not rule out some isolated to scattered showers each day through
the work week, but again the chances of any tropical impacts
appear to be waning at this time.

16


&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF Discussion.

Currently an upper level ridge and surface high are keeping a lid
on convection. A few cumulus can be seen on satellite associated
with an upper level weakness. VFR conditions and light easterly
winds are expected today. There is a slight chance of a stray
shower developing in northeast this afternoon where higher dewpoints
are located. Winds overnight will be calm.

92

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Generally dry conditions will continue thru the weekend, with
only low rain chances at times. Temps will remain near or slightly
above normal thru early next week. Critical fire weather
conditions are not expected.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden     92  72  92  71  92 /  20  10  30  20  20
Anniston    93  73  93  72  92 /  20  10  30  20  20
Birmingham  94  74  94  74  93 /  10  10  20  10  20
Tuscaloosa  95  73  95  75  95 /  10  10  20  10  20
Calera      94  73  93  73  93 /  10  10  20  10  20
Auburn      92  73  93  72  92 /  10  10  20  10  20
Montgomery  96  74  96  74  95 /  10  10  20  10  20
Troy        94  72  93  72  93 /  10  10  10  10  20

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$



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