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Area Forecast Discussion

938
FXUS64 KBMX 010840
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
240 AM CST SUN FEB 1 2015

.DISCUSSION...

LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS AND OVERCAST SKIES KEEPING TEMPERATURES ON
THE MILD SIDE THIS MORNING. BHM STILL REPORTING 50 AT THIS HOUR
WITH 40S ELSEWHERE. INCREASING ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL GRADUALLY
MOISTEN UP THE AIRMASS OVER THE CWA TODAY. IT MAY TAKE A WHILE
WITH DEWPOINTS STILL AVERAGING IN THE 25 TO 30 RANGE BUT STILL
THINK JUST ABOUT EVERYONE WILL MEASURE AT SOME POINT THIS
AFTERNOON. WENT AHEAD AND RAISED POPS BACK UP TO 90-100%. SURFACE
OBS IN MISSISSIPPI ARE REPORTING RAIN EVEN WITH THE HIGHER CLOUD BASE.
THE COLD FRONT WILL COME THROUGH IN THE EVENING SO THERE WILL
PROBABLY BE TWO PERIODS OF RAIN WITH A POSSIBLE BREAK BETWEEN THE
FIRST WAVE AND THE FRONT. MAYBE A FEW FLURRIES ON THE BACK SIDE OF
THIS ACROSS THE NORTH AS THE COLDER AIR WORKS IN.

PRETTY RAW DAY COMING UP MONDAY WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE 30S
NORTHWEST TO AROUND 50 SOUTHEAST. BREEZY WITH A GRADUAL DECREASE
IN CLOUDS. THE CENTER OF THE SURFACE HIGH SETTLES OVER THE DEEP
SOUTH MONDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS WELL INTO THE 20S.

ANOTHER SYSTEM APPROACHES WEDNESDAY EVENING WITH A SIGNIFICANT
SPREAD STILL IN THE EVOLUTION OF THE MOISTURE RETURN AND ARRIVAL
OF COLD AIR. ALL THE MODELS DEVELOP THE SURFACE LOW IN THE
NORTHWESTERN GULF AS A CLOSED UPPER SYSTEM FINALLY OPENS UP OVER
WESTERN MEXICO AND SHIFTS TOWARDS THE GULF COAST. THIS HAPPENS AS
A NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH DELIVERS A DECENT COLD AIR MASS
SOUTHWARD. THESE SYSTEMS ARE NOT PHASED UP (YET) BUT WILL NEED TO
BE MONITORED FOR ANY SUBTLE CHANGES. THE GFS REMAINS VERY ROBUST
WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW LATE THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY EVENING AS THE
UPPER TROUGH PASSES OVER. THE CMC IS ALMOST THERE AND THE EURO HAS
TRENDED A LITTLE BIT IN THAT DIRECTION. WILL CONTINUE WITH THE
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE NORTH THURSDAY EVENING BUT MAKE IT
SNOW INSTEAD OF SNOW/RAIN. COLD FRIDAY AND A LITTLE WARMER ON
SATURDAY.

88

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF DISCUSSION.

SOME LOWER CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO WORK IN OVERNIGHT. CLOUDS IN THE
SOUTH WILL BE EVEN LOWER AND NEAR MVFR BY 14Z. RAIN MOVES IN AFTER
18Z...ALONG WITH MUCH LOWER CEILINGS...IFR. MODELS ARE EVEN
ANTICIPATING LIFR CONDITIONS AFTER 21Z...BUT WILL HOLD ONTO JUST
THE IFR FOR NOW WITH 2SM AND RAIN. ONCE THE IFR CEILINGS WORK IN
THERE WILL NOT BE MUCH MORE IMPROVEMENT THROUGH THE REST OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD. THERE COULD BE AN ISOLATED STORM AFTER 18Z AS
WELL...BUT CHANCES ARE TOO SLIM TO INCLUDE.

16


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     56  38  40  23  49 / 100 100  10   0   0
ANNISTON    59  39  42  24  50 / 100 100  10   0   0
BIRMINGHAM  59  36  42  24  51 / 100 100  10   0   0
TUSCALOOSA  61  37  43  26  51 / 100  90  10   0   0
CALERA      59  38  43  27  50 / 100 100  10   0   0
AUBURN      61  42  47  27  52 / 100 100  10   0   0
MONTGOMERY  64  44  48  27  54 / 100 100  10   0   0
TROY        64  45  50  27  54 /  90 100  10   0   0

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$








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