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Area Forecast Discussion

108
FXUS64 KBMX 302328
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
628 PM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 00Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

AFTERNOON SURFACE ANALYSIS AND VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGEST
THAT COLD FRONT STRETCHES FROM NORTHERN MS...ACROSS NORTHWESTERN
CORNER OF AL...TO BETWEEN NASHVILLE AND KNOXVILLE TN. CONVECTION
SO FAR TODAY HAS BEEN LIMITED TO MOSTLY THE SOUTH HALF OF
ALABAMA...WITH MOVEMENT OF ONGOING SHOWERS AND STORMS TO THE
SOUTH. WILL THEREFORE NEED TO CONTINUE TO CARRY HIGHEST POPS IN
THE SOUTH TONIGHT. WILL LET HEAT ADVISORY EXPIRE THIS EVENING AS
SCHEDULED.

USING SURFACE DEWPOINT FORECAST AS A PROXY...MODELS INDICATE THAT
FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHWARD OVERNIGHT AND EARLY
FRIDAY...AND THEN STALL OUT ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES.
THIS WILL LEAD TO SEVERAL DAYS WITH POPS LIMITED TO THOSE
SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES. ELSEWHERE...LOTS OF SUNSHINE WITH TEMPS
STILL CLIMBING INTO THE 90S BUT WITH LOWER HUMIDITY LEVELS.

THERE IS NOTHING OBVIOUS IN THE LONGER TERM MODEL OUTPUT THAT
SUGGESTS A SYNOPTICALLY GREATER CHANCE OF RAIN THAN OVER
CLIMO...NOR A SUBSTANTIAL CHANGE TO THE DAILY TEMP TRENDS.

/61/


&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION.

SCT TSTMS WILL CONTINUE EARLY IN THE PERIOD ALONG AND SOUTH OF
I-85...IMPACTING MAINLY KTOI. A WEAK COOL FRONT BETWEEN HUNTSVILLE
AND BIRMINGHAM WILL PUSH SOUTHWARD OVERNIGHT. NO CLOUDS OR PCPN
WERE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT...AND DRIER AIR WILL PUSH SOUTHWARD
OVERNIGHT BEHIND FRONT. HIGHER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE
FRONT COULD PRODUCE SOME LIGHT FOG AND KMGM AND KTOI BETWEEN 09Z
AND 12Z. NORTHERLY WINDS OF 8-12 KNOTS WILL HELP PUSH THE FRONT
TO NEAR THE I-85 CORRIDOR BY 18Z. A FEW TSTMS WILL DEVELOP SOUTH
OF THE FRONT AFTER 18Z.

58/ROSE

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL BRING LESS HUMID AIR INTO CENTRAL ALABAMA
ON FRIDAY...LIMITING RAIN CHANCES TO THE FAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     69  90  65  92  69 /  10  10   0   0   0
ANNISTON    70  90  67  91  69 /  10  10  10  10   0
BIRMINGHAM  70  91  69  92  71 /  10   0   0   0   0
TUSCALOOSA  71  93  68  95  71 /  10   0   0   0   0
CALERA      68  91  66  92  70 /  10  10   0  10   0
AUBURN      72  91  71  91  73 /  30  20  20  20  10
MONTGOMERY  74  94  71  95  73 /  30  20  10  20  10
TROY        74  93  72  93  73 /  40  30  20  30  20

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR AUTAUGA-DALLAS-
GREENE-HALE-LOWNDES-MARENGO-MONTGOMERY-PERRY-SUMTER.

&&

$$



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