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Area Forecast Discussion

279
FXUS64 KBMX 291601
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1101 AM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.UPDATE...
MORNING UPDATE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

A FEW SHOWERS DEVELOPED THIS MORNING ACROSS CENTRAL PORTIONS OF
THE AREA WITHIN A MOISTURE AXIS AND AREA OF ISENTROPIC LIFT.
THESE SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTHWARD ACROSS PORTIONS OF
BLOUNT...ST CLAIR...AND ETOWAH COUNTIES OVER THE NEXT COUPLE
HOURS. STILL EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP
THIS AFTERNOON. MODELS INDICATE AN AREA OF LOW-LEVEL DRY AIR
WORKING INTO SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON...SO
DECREASED POPS SLIGHTLY IN PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST AND TRIED TO
INDICATE A DECREASING TREND THROUGH THE AFTERNOON THERE BASED ON
HI-RES MODELS. HIGH TEMPERATURE FORECAST REMAINS MAINLY ON
TRACK...THOUGH HIGHS MAY BE A BIT LOWER ACROSS THE NORTHEAST DUE
TO CLOUD COVER. UPDATE IS ALREADY OUT.

32/DAVIS

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF DISCUSSION.

IFR CONDITIONS IN PATCHY FOG/LOW CLOUDS HAVE DEVELOPED AT SOME TAF
SITES THIS MORNING...AND WILL BE POSSIBLE AT ALL SITES UNTIL AROUND
14Z. AFTER THAT TIME CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR WITH THESE
CONDITIONS PREVAILING FOR MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD. SURFACE PATTERN REMAINS SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY BUT UPPER
SUPPORT MUCH WEAKER TODAY SO ONLY EXPECT SCATTERED MAINLY DIURNALLY
DRIVEN CONVECTION. CONFIDENCE FOR TSRA TO OCCUR AT ANY TAF SITE NOT
HIGH ENOUGH TO GO MORE THAN VCTS AT THIS TIME. CONVECTION WILL
DIMINISH AFTER 00Z. COULD SEE SOME PATCHY IFR CIGS/VSBYS AGAIN AFTER
10Z BUT WITH LESS RAIN EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA TODAY THAN PREVIOUS
COUPLE OF DAYS THINK THE LOW CLOUDS AND VSBYS LATE TONIGHT SHOULD BE
LESS THAN THIS MORNING.

41


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 508 AM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015/

SLIGHTLY DIFFERENT SET UP TODAY AS OPPOSED TO THURSDAY MORNING. AT
THE SURFACE THINGS ARE FAIRLY SIMILAR WITH AN ELONGATED ATLANTIC
RIDGE AND WEAK ONSHORE FLOW OVER ALABAMA ON THE WEST SIDE OF IT.
THE DIFFERENCE TODAY IS IN THE UPPER LEVELS...THE SHORTWAVE THAT
WAS PRESENT YESTERDAY WILL NOT BE A FACTOR TODAY AND THE UPPER
FLOW WILL BE WEAK AROUND AN EAST COAST UPPER RIDGE. SO ALTHOUGH
WE WILL NOT BE LACKING FOR MOISTURE...THERE WILL NOT BE AS MUCH
FOCUS AS UPPER DISTURBANCES WILL BE MUCH WEAKER. CONVECTION SHOULD
BE DIURNALLY DRIVEN TODAY INTO THIS EVENING AND THUS POPS ARE
LOWER.

FOR FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...RAIN CHANCES WILL
DECREASE BUT WE SHOULD SEE A POP GRADIENT WITH BETTER CHANCES IN
THE NORTHWEST AS A SURFACE FRONT SINKS SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
CENTRAL U.S. AND THE UPPER MAIN TROUGH SHIFTS EASTWARD FROM THE
ROCKIES TO THE CENTRAL PLAINS.

FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...THE SURFACE FRONT WILL THAT DEVELOPS WILL
SLOWLY PROGRESS SOUTH AND EASTWARD TO THE APPALACHIANS AND MID
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY THEN INTO TEXAS. HOWEVER...ALTHOUGH THE
FRONT MAY REACH ALABAMA...IT WILL LIKELY STALL AND PUSH NORTHWARD.
IT WILL INCREASE OUR RAIN CHANCES THOUGH FOR THIS TIME PERIOD
GIVING MORE FORCING FOR DEVELOPMENT. THE UPPER FLOW WILL GIVE
LITTLE HELP TO PUSH THE FRONT THROUGH AS THE LONGWAVE TROUGH
BUILDS OVER THE CENTRAL U.S.

ON SUNDAY INTO MONDAY PART OF THIS TROUGH BREAKS OFF EVENTUALLY
BECOMING A CLOSED LOW OVER ARKANSAS AND LOUISIANA WITH ALABAMA
STAYING ON THE WET ONSHORE FLOW SIDE OF THE LOW. THIS WILL KEEP
SCATTERED CONVECTION POSSIBLE FOR EACH DAY WITH THE HELP OF
DIURNAL HEATING THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST WITH LITTLE
MOTIVATION TO DETERIORATE OR PUSH THIS LOW EASTWARD DURING THE
WORK WEEK. THE WET PATTERN REMAINS.

08/MK

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     84  65  85  66  84 /  60  20  30  30  60
ANNISTON    84  65  85  67  85 /  40  20  20  20  50
BIRMINGHAM  84  67  86  68  85 /  40  30  30  30  60
TUSCALOOSA  86  68  86  68  86 /  40  30  40  30  60
CALERA      84  66  86  68  85 /  40  30  30  30  60
AUBURN      85  66  86  68  86 /  20  10  10  10  40
MONTGOMERY  88  67  89  69  88 /  30  20  20  20  40
TROY        87  66  89  68  89 /  20  10  10  10  40

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$



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