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Area Forecast Discussion

789
FXUS64 KBMX 240318 AAB
AFDBMX

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
1018 PM CDT MON MAY 23 2016

.UPDATE...
Evening Update.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Near calm surface winds tonight across much of Central Alabama but
not expected quite as cool temperatures tonight as last night as
our main northerly flow is cut off as ridge weakens and moves
eastward. Also, we have a upper northwest flow cirrus shield that
has been filtering into the area this evening that will hamper our
cooling a little. With that said, we are cooling best and still a
tad quicker in the north and east as expected with a retreating
ridge. Have lowered in these areas a couple of degrees, but albeit
still not as cool as last night.

08

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF Discussion.

VFR and rain-free conditions will continue through the period and
beyond with a dry air mass in place. Winds will be light and
variable underneath a surface ridge.

32/Davis

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Dry conditions are expected through Wednesday with only minimal
rain chances the remainder of the week. Low level moisture will
increase slowly through the end of the week. There are no fire
weather concerns at this time.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 304 PM CDT MON MAY 23 2016/

Memorial Day may mark the beginning of summer, but temperatures
will get a head start this week with highs forecast in the 85 to
90 degree range. A large upper low currently off the mid-Atlantic
coast will get replaced by an upper ridge over the Southeast
states by Wednesday. This will prevent deeper moisture over the
Southern Plains states from advancing east of the Mississippi
river. There will be a few weak impulses that ride over the top of
the upper ridge, and this may produce a few afternoon showers or
thunderstorms across the far northern counties Wednesday through
Friday. The models are forecasting a surface low developing off
the southeast Florida coast by the end of the week. Thy system
will likely stay over water or possibly track into the Carolinas.
Alabama will be on the back side of the system which would not
favor any organized convection. However, there can be areas of
low level convergence on the west side of weaker systems and this
could bring a slight increase in rain chances over east Alabama
Saturday and Sunday.

58/Rose

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden     50  85  58  87  63 /   0   0   0  10  10
Anniston    54  85  60  88  64 /   0   0   0  10   0
Birmingham  57  87  63  88  67 /   0   0   0  10  10
Tuscaloosa  56  88  63  89  67 /   0   0   0  10   0
Calera      57  86  63  88  66 /   0   0   0   0   0
Auburn      55  85  64  86  66 /   0   0   0   0   0
Montgomery  57  88  64  90  66 /   0   0   0   0   0
Troy        55  88  63  90  65 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

08/32/58



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