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Area Forecast Discussion

001
FXUS64 KBMX 011536
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1036 AM CDT WED APR 1 2015

.UPDATE...
MORNING UPDATE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

THE LOW CLOUDS AND FOG THAT DEVELOPED EARLY THIS MORNING HAS DISSIPATED.
A LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY THAT PUSHED THROUGH THE EASTERN SIDE OF ALABAMA
WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR AFTERNOON CONVECTION. THE BOUNDARY WILL PROBABLY
BECOME MORE APPARENT IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS A CUMULUS FIELD DEVELOPS
ON THE MOIST SIDE OF THE AXIS. MODEL FORECASTS THE HIGHEST CAPE AND
INSTABILITY ACROSS WEST ALABAMA THIS AFTERNOON...WITH CAPE VALUES
NEAR 2000 J/KG. WILL MAINTAIN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SEVERE STORMS FOR
AREAS WEST OF I-65 THIS AFTERNOON. MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE NOT
AS STEEP AS YESTERDAY...BUT STILL HIGH ENOUGH TO MAINTAIN THE
THREAT OF LARGE HAIL.

58/ROSE

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF DISCUSSION.

REMNANTS OF OVERNIGHT CONVECTION MOVING EAST OUT OF SOUTHEAST
ALABAMA EARLY THIS MORNING. GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL AT MOST
TAF SITES ALTHOUGH SOME PATCHY IFR CIGS NOW SHOWING UP AT KEET. ANY
PATCHY MVFR OR IFR CIGS/VSBYS EARLY THIS MORNING SHOULD LIFT QUICKLY
BY 14Z TIME FRAME. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH
THE DAY AND INTO TONIGHT AT MOST LOCATIONS. THERE COULD BE SOME
PATCHY LOW CEILINGS AND FOG LATE TONIGHT WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR
THIS TO OCCUR AT KMGM AND KTOI. WITH THE AIR MASS STILL MOIST AND
UNSTABLE THERE COULD ALSO BE SOME ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED
CONVECTION DEVELOP DURING THE HEAT OF THE DAY TODAY WITH PROBABLY
THE BEST CHANCE OF SEEING A THUNDERSTORM IN THE WESTERN SECTIONS.
WITH CHANCES LOW FOR ANY TERMINAL SEEING A TSRA TODAY WILL NOT
INCLUDE IN TAFS EXCEPT FOR KTCL WHERE A LITTLE BETTER MOISTURE
PROFILE WILL EXIST.

41


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 600 AM CDT WED APR 1 2015/

SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TWO
THIRDS OF CENTRAL ALABAMA THIS MORNING. THIS ACTIVITY HAS GREATLY
DECREASED IN INTENSITY. NUMEROUS REPORTS OF HAIL WERE RECEIVED
FROM THIS ACTIVITY FROM LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS ON
TUESDAY. WHATS LEFT OF THE QUASI STATIONARY FRONT WILL BE
REINFORCED BY A SYNOPTIC FRONT THAT IS MOVING SOUTHWARD ACROSS
SOUTHERN TENNESSEE. THIS BOUNDARY WILL NOT CLEAR THE AREA...IN
FACT...IT WILL MOVE BACK NORTHWARD LATER TONIGHT. THE ATMOSPHERE
HAS THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE SOME ADDITIONAL STRONG TO MARGINALLY
SEVERE STORMS TODAY...BUT ADDITIONAL UPPER SUPPORT IS NOT NEARLY
AS PREVALENT AS YESTERDAY. WILL MENTION A SMALL CHANCE OF
ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON GENERALLY
WEST OF I-65. THE THREAT WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS.

MEAN MOISTURE LESSENS ON THURSDAY AND EARLY FRIDAY...BUT THERE
WILL BE SOME SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCE NEAR THE EXITING
BOUNDARY TO THE NORTH. ANOTHER STRONG COLD FRONT ENTERS THE
PICTURE ON FRIDAY. MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS CONSISTENT WITH PREVIOUS
RUNS AND OUR FORECAST. THE MAIN UPPER FEATURES AND SURFACE LOW
EXIT WELL TO OUR NORTH AND NORTHEAST...BUT IT STILL APPEARS THERE
WILL BE ENOUGH BULK SHEAR AND FORCING NEAR THE FRONT FOR THE
MENTION OF SEVERE STORMS. THE THREAT WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS. THE STORMS WILL AFFECT AREAS IN THE NORTHWEST
AFTER 3 PM AND BEGIN DECREASING IN INTENSITY AS THEY PASS THE I-59
CORRIDOR IN THE EVENING.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY LOOK RAIN FREE AND COOLER OR AT LEAST CLOSER
TO NORMAL. SOUTHERLY FLOW AND A RETURN OF INSTABILITY WILL LEAD
TO RAIN CHANCES AGAIN MONDAY AND BEYOND. THE FLOW ALOFT BECOMES
SOUTHWEST WITH ONLY SUBTLE FEATURES RIDING THROUGH THE FLOW.
ANOTHER SYSTEM APPEARS ON THE HORIZON APRIL 7 TO 10TH TIME
FRAME...DETAILS CERTAINLY TO WORKED OUT LATER.

75

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     74  56  77  58  76 /  10  30  40  30  40
ANNISTON    75  56  78  58  79 /  20  30  30  20  30
BIRMINGHAM  76  59  80  60  78 /  30  30  30  20  50
TUSCALOOSA  78  60  82  62  80 /  30  30  30  20  60
CALERA      77  59  80  60  79 /  30  30  30  20  40
AUBURN      77  57  79  58  79 /  30  30  20  10  20
MONTGOMERY  82  59  83  59  83 /  30  30  20  10  30
TROY        80  58  82  57  82 /  30  30  20  10  10

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$



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