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Area Forecast Discussion

494
FXUS64 KBMX 191749
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1249 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 18Z AVIATION.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...

A COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED SOUTHWARD TO THE GULF COAST EARLY THIS
MORNING. THE SUBSEQUENT SURFACE HIGH WILL KEEP DRY AND COOLER AIR
ACROSS MUCH OF THE CONUS EAST OF THE ROCKIES THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.
ONLY SOME HIGH CLOUDINESS WILL DRIFT FROM WEST TO EAST OVER CENTRAL
ALABAMA.

ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MOISTURE REMAINS VERY LIMITED AND NO RAIN
CHANCES WILL BE MENTIONED WITH THIS FRONT. THERE WILL BE SOME MID
LEVEL CLOUDINESS NEAR THE FRONT...WITH A PERIOD OF LOWER CLOUDS
BEHIND THE FRONT TUESDAY.

BEYOND TUESDAY...IT APPEARS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE
REGION FOR ANOTHER WEEK OR SO. A SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST ON
FRIDAY...BUT IS UPPER LEVEL DOMINATED AND WILL WEAKEN WITH TIME.
THEREFORE...NO MENTION OF ANY RAIN CHANCES. IT LOOKS LIKE WE WILL
EXPERIENCE SOME TYPICAL OCTOBER WEATHER THE NEXT 10 DAYS.

75

&&

.DISCUSSION...

A LARGE UPPER LOW NEAR HUDSONS BAY WILL GUIDE OUR WEATHER PATTERN
OVER CENTRAL ALABAMA MUCH OF THE PERIOD. THIS LOW WILL KEEP A
TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS WITH A FEW WAVES RE-ENHANCING THE
TROUGH FROM TIME TO TIME. A LOW EVEN CUTS OFF OVER THE NORTHEAST BY
MID WEEK. THIS WILL ALLOW AN UPPER RIDGE TO BUILD TO OUR WEST AND
APPROACH TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD.

PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES REMAIN NEAR 50 PERCENT OF NORMAL MUCH OF
THE PERIOD WHILE MEAN RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ARE 40 PERCENT OR
LESS. WE WILL EXPERIENCE AN INCREASE WITH THE FRONT ON TUESDAY...
BUT NOTHING HIGH ENOUGH FOR ANY PRECIPITATION. WE WILL ALSO SEE A
SLIGHT INCREASE AT THE END OF THE WEEK...BUT NOTHING EXTRAORDINARY.
ADDITIONALLY...THE MODEL SUITE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGHOUT.
TEMPERATURES DO NOT FLUCTUATE DRAMATICALLY THIS PERIOD AND HOVER
NEAR NORMAL FOR THE MOST PART.

OF NOTE...FINE MOISTURE DEMARCATION ZONE WILL EXISTS OVER THE CENTRAL
GULF. THERE MAY BE SOME ACTIVITY DOWN THERE...BUT WILL REMAIN
REMOVED FROM CENTRAL ALABAMA.

75


&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

VFR CONDS THRU THE PERIOD WITH LIGHT AND VRBL WINDS.

NOTE...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILL CONTINUE ISSUING SEASONAL
TERMINAL FORECASTS FOR THE TALLADEGA MUNICIPAL AIRPORT (KASN) IN
TALLADEGA...ALABAMA THROUGH AT LEAST THE 23RD OF OCTOBER.

07

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     41  73  46  74  46 /   0   0  10  10   0
ANNISTON    44  74  49  75  47 /   0   0  10  10   0
BIRMINGHAM  46  74  52  75  48 /   0   0  10  10   0
TUSCALOOSA  45  77  49  78  49 /   0   0   0   0   0
CALERA      46  75  51  76  49 /   0   0  10   0   0
AUBURN      48  74  53  75  50 /   0   0   0   0   0
MONTGOMERY  47  78  52  79  50 /   0   0   0   0   0
TROY        45  77  49  78  51 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$







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