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Area Forecast Discussion

FXUS64 KBMX 282038

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
338 PM CDT SUN AUG 28 2016

Through Tonight.

As expected, shower and storm development has been confined to the
northern portions of our forecast area. As easterly to southeasterly
1000-500mb flow continues across much of the southeast, a fetch of
"drier" air continues to affect the southern half of the forecast
area. Therefore, very isolated if any convection is expected to
develop for locations such as Demopolis, Montgomery, and Auburn this
afternoon. With additional moisture and upper level energy moving
westward around the upper ridge to our northeast, we can expect the
scattered showers and storms to continue for the rest of the
afternoon, and then quickly dissipating after sunset this evening.


Monday through Sunday.

Central Alabama will be on the bottom side of a upper ridge Monday
and Tuesday. Several weak impulses will push along the easterly
upper flow. Models are in good agreement in bringing one impulse
into east Alabama Monday afternoon, and increased pops slightly
across the southeast counties. Isolated convection will be
possible across east Alabama again on Tuesday afternoon. By
Wednesday two important features will come into play across the
central Gulf Coast region. The tropical wave currently over Cuba
will likely get its act together as the models are clustering
towards a projected path. The models are taking the center of
circulation across the Florida Big Bend area by Thursday. Still a
lot of uncertainty regarding intensity, but this projected path
would keep central Alabama on the dry and stable side of the
system. This forecast is based on the tropical system passing to
the east of Alabama. The eastward push of the tropical system is
being influenced by a second feature. A strong short wave trof
will dig southward across the eastern United States next week.
This will bring a slight increase in moisture and lift on
Thursday, but kept pops in the low side for now. The drier mid
level air will spread southward across the area on Friday as the
tropical system lifts northeast into the Atlantic. Considered
removing all rain chances for next weekend, but the ECMWF model
brings some moisture back into the area over the weekend, so left
small rain chances on Saturday.



18Z TAF Discussion.

VFR conditions will continue through the forecast period. Isolated
to scattered showers and storms are expected this afternoon, with
best coverage across northeastern Alabama. For now, have removed
VCTS at KANB and KASN and replaced with VCSH. Most convective
and CB development are expected to remain far enough north of all
terminals this afternoon. Surface winds could gust between 15 and
20 knots at times this afternoon, with prevailing winds around 10
knots from the east and southeast. VFR conditions will continue
through the overnight hours tonight.




Generally dry conditions with above average temperatures will
continue thru midweek, with only isolated afternoon storms each
day. Critical fire weather conditions are not expected.


Gadsden     71  92  71  91  71 /  20  10  10  10  10
Anniston    71  91  72  91  73 /  20  20  10  20  10
Birmingham  74  93  75  93  74 /  20  10  10  10  10
Tuscaloosa  74  94  74  94  74 /  10  10  10  10  10
Calera      74  92  73  92  74 /  20  10  10  10  10
Auburn      73  91  73  90  73 /  20  30  10  20  10
Montgomery  75  94  75  94  75 /  10  20  10  20  10
Troy        72  92  72  92  73 /  10  20  10  20  10





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