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Area Forecast Discussion

504
FXUS64 KBMX 201116
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
616 AM CDT SUN APR 20 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 12Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

FAIRLY TRANQUIL CONDITIONS ARE CURRENTLY UPON CENTRAL ALABAMA EARLY
ON THIS EASTER SUNDAY MORNING. A FETCH OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND
ISENTROPIC LIFT HAS BROUGHT MORE CLOUDS IN FROM THE EAST ACROSS OUR
SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES THIS MORNING. THESE CLOUDS ARE BEING
ADVERTISED TO HANG ON MOST OF THE MORNING ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE
I-85 CORRIDOR. ENOUGH MIXING SHOULD COMMENCE THROUGH NOON TODAY AND
ALLOW MOST OF THE CLOUDS TO BECOME MORE SCATTERED BY THIS AFTERNOON.
DUE TO THE CLOUDS TEMPS WILL BE COOLER FOR SOUTHEASTERN LOCATIONS
THAN THE REST OF THE STATE THIS AFTERNOON...AS MOST LOCATIONS
SHOULD EASILY WARM INTO THE UPPER 70S AND PERHAPS 80 DEGREES. SOME
LOCATIONS HIT THE 80 DEGREE MARK YESTERDAY...AND WITH LOW LEVEL
THICKNESSES NOT MUCH DIFFERENT TODAY WE SHOULD SEE SOME 80 DEGREE
READINGS ACROSS OUR WESTERN AND SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES THIS
AFTERNOON. NO DOUBT A GREAT DAY TO GET OUT THERE AND ENJOY THE
WARM CONDITIONS THAT WILL BE IN STORE.

PLEASANT WEATHER LOOKS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY ON MONDAY WITH
UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S EXPECTED FOR HIGHS ONCE AGAIN FOLLOWING
MORNING LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S. CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE
INCREASE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS AN UPPER TROUGH AND SURFACE
COLD FRONT APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST. DEWPOINTS WILL BE ALLOWED TO
RISE AT LEAST INTO THE LOWER 60S DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY...WHICH
WILL BE ENOUGH MOISTURE TO SUPPORT THUNDERSTORM FORMATION ESPECIALLY
WITH THE LIFTING MECHANISM OF THE SURFACE FRONT COMING THROUGH.
ALSO...SINCE THE FRONT WILL BE COMING THROUGH DURING THE PEAK
HEATING OF THE DAY THAT WILL ADD MORE INSTABILITY TO THE MIX. SINCE
ALL THE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT WILL BE WELL OFF TO THE NORTH...WE
CERTAINLY AREN`T EXPECTING ANY STORMS TO BE ORGANIZED WITH THIS
SYSTEM. HOWEVER...WITH 1000-1200 J/KG OF CAPE AND 20-25 KTS OF 0-6KM
BULK SHEAR WE COULD SEE SOME STRONG PULSE STORMS DEVELOPING. SINCE
500MB TEMPS ARE GOING TO BE AROUND -14 TO -15C...ANY TALLER UPDRAFTS
THAT DEVELOP WILL BE ABLE TO SUPPORT HAIL FORMATION. GUSTY WINDS
WILL ALSO BE LIKELY WITH THESE STORMS AND HEAVY RAINFALL WITH PWATS
INCREASING TO 1.3-1.4 INCHES. AT THIS TIME WILL CONTINUE TO NOT
MENTION ANY THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS...BUT ANY INCREASE IN DEWPOINTS
AND INSTABILITIES MIGHT LEAD TO A FEW SEVERE STORMS TO DEVELOP. THE
GFS THIS MORNING REALLY RAMPS UP DEWPOINTS INTO THE MID AND UPPER
60S WITH SBCAPES INCREASING TO 2000 J/KG. I THINK THAT`S WAY
OVERDONE AT THIS POINT...AS WE JUST DON`T HAVE ENOUGH SOUTHERLY
RETURN FLOW FROM THE GULF AHEAD OF THE FRONT. OF COURSE WE`LL
CONTINUE TO WATCH TRENDS OVER THE NEXT FEW FORECAST PACKAGES. I`VE
BUMPED DOWN FORECAST HIGHS A BIT ON TUESDAY ALONG AND NORTH OF I-85
DUE TO THE NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS AND CLOUDS EXPECTED. ONCE
THE SUN GOES DOWN TUESDAY EVENING...WE`LL SEE A DRAMATIC WEAKENING
TREND AND MOST ACTIVITY SHOULD BE OVER THROUGH MIDNIGHT.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY OF THIS WEEK LOOK VERY PLEASANT WITH MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES AND WARM TEMPS UP INTO THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S.
ANOTHER WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS BEING ADVERTISED TO APPROACH
CENTRAL ALABAMA BY FRIDAY MORNING WITH EVEN LESS IN THE WAY OF UPPER
SUPPORT. THIS FRONT CURRENTLY LOOKS TO STALL OUT ACROSS THE CWA
CONTINUING THROUGH FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND...AND HAVE GONE WITH
CHANCE POPS NORTH TO SLIGHT CHANCE POPS SOUTH FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY
AT THE CURRENT TIME.

56/GDG


&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF DISCUSSION.

MGM AND TOI ARE CURRENTLY BEING IMPACTED BY MVFR CIGS THAT WILL
ERODE THIS MORNING. MODELS KEEP THE CLOUDS TIL 18Z...BUT BASED ON
ONGOING MOVEMENT WILL GO AHEAD AND CLEAR OUT A LITTLE SOONER...AT
LEAST THE MVFR CONDITIONS. LOOK FOR MGM TO BE BACK IN THE VFR
CONDITIONS BY 14Z AND TOI BY 15Z. WINDS WILL GUSTY ACROSS THE
SOUTH...BUT GENERALLY 5 TO 7KTS ELSEWHERE. WINDS CALM AFTER
SUNSET.

NOTE...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IS NOW ISSUING SEASONAL
TERMINAL FORECASTS FOR THE TALLADEGA MUNICIPAL AIRPORT (KASN) IN
TALLADEGA...ALABAMA. THE FORECASTS WILL BE ISSUED THROUGH AT LEAST
MAY 8TH 00Z. DUE TO THE LIMITED AVAILABILITY OF OBSERVATIONS...
KASN TAF WILL HAVE AMD NOT SKED APPENDED TO THE END OF THE FORECAST.

16

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$







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