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Area Forecast Discussion

538
FXUS64 KBMX 292349
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
649 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

.UPDATE...
AVIATION DISCUSSION

&&

.DISCUSSION...

CLOUDS HAVE BEGUN TO MIX OUT A BIT THIS AFTERNOON...AS THE UPPER
SHORTWAVE CONTINUES TO PUSH THROUGH CENTRAL ALABAMA. NOT MUCH TO
SPEAK OF IN TERMS OF RAINFALL DEVELOPING OUT AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE
EXCEPT FOR SOME SHOWERS IN A BROKEN LINE STRETCHING FROM DALLAS TO
TALLAPOOSA COUNTY THIS AFTERNOON. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A
STORM WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES
FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. RAIN CHANCES WILL
DIMINISH COMPLETELY AFTER MIDNIGHT AS UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMES
NORTHWESTERLY BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE. PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE
ESPECIALLY WHERE SKIES BECOME RELATIVELY CLEAR AND TEMPS DIP DOWN
TOWARD THE DEWPOINT AFTER MIDNIGHT THROUGH DAYBREAK ON TUESDAY.

THE WEATHER PATTERN WILL STAY DRY AND WARM THROUGH MUCH OF THIS
WEEK...AS UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE. ABOVE NORMAL
HIGHS ARE EXPECTED EACH AFTERNOON IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S TUESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY. THE BIG CHANGE TO COOLER AUTUMN WEATHER WILL BE ON
THE WAY FOR FRIDAY AS A LONGWAVE TROUGH DIGS SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE
PLAINS STATES. WE`LL CERTAINLY SEE OUR FIRST POTENT COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE OF THE SEASON FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
STORMS DEVELOPING OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT. PLENTY OF MOISTURE WILL
BE AVAILABLE FOR STORMS WITH PWATS ADVERTISED FROM 1.75 TO 1.90
INCHES AND DEWPOINTS AROUND 70 DEGREES FOR MUCH OF CENTRAL
ALABAMA. WITH 0-6KM BULK SHEAR VALUES CLOSE TO 40 KNOTS...STRONG
STORMS WILL CERTAINLY BE POSSIBLE AS THIS FRONT MOVES THROUGH BUT
NOT EXPECTING ANY SEVERE WITH THE MAJORITY OF UPPER SUPPORT WELL
TO OUR NORTH. HOPEFULLY WE`LL SEE SOME GOOD RAINFALL WITH THIS
FRONT SINCE WE MISSED OUT ON THE LAST OPPORTUNITY. CURRENTLY THE
HEAVIEST RAINS ARE BEING ADVERTISED ACROSS AT LEAST THE NORTHERN
HALF OF CENTRAL ALABAMA WHERE THE BEST UPPER DIVERGENCE WILL BE
PRESENT AHEAD OF THE UPPER TROUGH.

AUTUMN WEATHER WILL RETURN FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT
FOR THIS UPCOMING WEEKEND...WITH VERY PLEASANT DAYTIME TEMPERATURES
CURRENTLY BEING ADVERTISED RANGING FROM THE LOWER 70S NORTH TO THE
UPPER 70S SOUTH SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THOSE TEMPERATURES MAY END UP
STILL BEING TOO HIGH...AS THE STRONG 1026MB SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS WILL REALLY FILTER SOME COOL AIR SOUTHWARD. RAW
MODEL DATA HAS ACTUALLY BEEN ADVERTISING SOME UPPER 60S FOR HIGHS
ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF CENTRAL ALABAMA. IN TERMS OF LOW
TEMPERATURES...THE COOLEST MORNING WILL BE ON SUNDAY WHERE LOWS IN
THE 40S COULD BE WIDESPREAD NORTH OF THE I-20 CORRIDOR. LOWER 50S
WILL BE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE. DRY WEATHER WILL PERSIST FOLLOWING THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AND WILL
LIKELY PERSIST INTO NEXT WEEK AS WELL.

56/GDG

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION.

CLOUD COVER GRADUALLY DISSIPATING THIS EVENING...WITH VFR CIGS ALL
FORECAST TERMINALS. EXPECT LOW CLOUDS AND FOG TO DEVELOP TONIGHT
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA...AS IT BUILDS IN FROM THE EAST. EXCEPTION
WILL BE TCL WHERE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN VFR. FOR
NOW...HAVE INCLUDED MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS AT ALL OTHER TERMINALS
OVERNIGHT. FOG AND LOW CLOUDS WILL LIFT TUESDAY MORNING...LEAVING
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY.

NOTE...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILL BEGIN ISSUING SEASONAL
TERMINAL FORECASTS FOR THE TALLADEGA MUNICIPAL AIRPORT (KASN) IN
TALLADEGA...ALABAMA. THE FORECAST WILL BEGIN OCTOBER 5TH AT 00Z
AND LAST THROUGH AT LEAST THE 23RD OF OCTOBER.

14

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     60  85  59  85  64 /  10   0   0  10  10
ANNISTON    62  85  62  86  65 /  10   0   0  10  10
BIRMINGHAM  63  86  64  86  68 /  10   0   0  10  10
TUSCALOOSA  64  88  64  88  68 /  10   0   0  10  10
CALERA      65  85  64  85  67 /  10   0   0  10  10
AUBURN      63  82  63  86  66 /  20   0   0  10  10
MONTGOMERY  66  87  65  88  68 /  10   0   0  10  10
TROY        65  86  64  87  66 /  20   0   0  10  10

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$










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