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Area Forecast Discussion

852
FXUS64 KBMX 291848
AFDBMX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
148 PM CDT WED JUN 29 2016

.DISCUSSION...

Boundary layer moisture quality and mid-level cooling is evidently
a bit better than expected behind a weak cold front, and showers
and storms have formed well north of what was previously expected.
POPs have been raised for the remainder of the afternoon into
the early evening. With the front expected to stall and a broad
500mb trough forecast to remain in place over the region for
Thursday, POPs have been increased a bit and expanded northwest.
Still, the best rain chances should remain south of I-85.

Rising 500mb heights should lead to a decrease in rain chances for
Friday into the weekend as a ridge builds into the region. The
southward progress of a front to our north remains questionable
for the upcoming week with model disagreement on the pattern
evolution. For this reason, SuperBlend POPs in the 35-45 percent
range seem too high and were undercut in the latest forecast.

87/Grantham

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF Discussion.

While drier air is gradually making its way further into Alabama,
dew points in the 60Fs + sunshine/daytime heating is resulting in
bubbly cumulus across central and northern Alabama. Light surface
winds and FEW clouds are in the forecast through the afternoon
for TCL-BHM-ASN-ANB-EET. Cumulus will fade with the setting sun,
with more VFR conditions forecast tonight and Thursday.

Toward the south, moisture content is deeper along a stalled
front. Here, the coverage of cloudiness is greater, along with
occurrences of passing showers. VCSH has been included at TOI,
with a possibility that it may become necessary to include at MGM
pending radar and satellite trends over the next few hours. An
isolated thunderstorm can`t be completely ruled out, and will be
monitoring for this as well (confidence is not high enough to
mention in the TAFs at this time). The presence of clouds should
continue for MGM and TOI tonight, though bases should hold in VFR
range. Light winds are expected on average.

89/GSatterwhite

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Isolated shower/storm activity will remain possible across the
southeast today, with drier and less humid conditions expected
across the north. Rain chances become a little better Sunday into
the beginning of next week and more diurnally influenced. No fire
weather concerns are expected at this time.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden     64  91  64  92  69 /  20  20  10  10  10
Anniston    66  91  66  92  68 /  30  20  20  10  10
Birmingham  68  91  68  93  72 /  30  20  10  10  10
Tuscaloosa  68  92  68  94  72 /  30  20  10  10  10
Calera      68  91  68  92  71 /  30  20  20  10  10
Auburn      71  89  71  90  73 /  40  50  40  20  10
Montgomery  71  92  72  94  73 /  40  50  40  20  10
Troy        70  90  71  91  72 /  50  50  40  30  10

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$



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