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Area Forecast Discussion

862
FXUS64 KBMX 010321
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1021 PM CDT SAT APR 30 2016

.UPDATE...
EVENING UPDATE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

RADAR IS FAIRLY QUIET ACROSS THE AREA AT THIS HOUR. NORTHERN EDGE
OF A WEAKENING LINE OF SHOWERS COULD CLIP THE SOUTHEAST FORECAST
AREA OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. ELSEWHERE ACROSS EAST ALABAMA
COULDN`T RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR STORM FORMING GIVEN
REMNANT BOUNDARIES AND INSTABILITY BUT THOSE CHANCES ARE VERY
LOW. NOT TOO ENTHUSED ABOUT RAIN CHANCES AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH
SUBSIDENCE/DRYING ALOFT INDICATED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND NO
ORGANIZED DEVELOPMENT OCCURRING UPSTREAM. HOWEVER MODEL GUIDANCE
IS INSISTENT ON ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT. GIVEN SOME LOW-LEVEL
ISENTROPIC LIFT AND REBOUNDING PWATS EXPECT SOME SCATTERED LIGHT
SHOWERS TO BE POSSIBLE MAINLY IN THE NORTHWEST TOWARDS DAYBREAK.
MADE SOME UPDATES TO TRIM BACK THE RAIN CHANCES
SOMEWHAT...HOWEVER. SOME PATCHY FOG MAY BE POSSIBLE IN AREAS WHERE
SKIES CAN CLEAR AND WINDS CAN BECOME CALM.

32/DAVIS

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION.

NORTHERN PORTION OF THE LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVING
INTO WEST ALABAMA HAS RAPIDLY WEAKENED AND THEREFORE THE NORTHERN
TAF SITES ARE ONLY EXPECTED TO RECEIVE A BRIEF PERIOD OF LIGHT
RAIN WITH LITTLE IMPACT TO AVIATION. BEST CHANCE OF TSRA WILL BE
AT MGM THIS EVENING AND POSSIBLY TOWARDS TOI. LOWER CONFIDENCE
FORECAST BEYOND THIS EVENING. WILL CONTINUE THE MENTION OF MVFR
CIGS DEVELOPING LATE TONIGHT...WITH THE POSSIBLY THAT LIGHT FOG
COULD DEVELOP INSTEAD IF THE CLEARING OVER MISSISIPPI PUSHES
EASTWARD. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE BEGINNING
EARLY TOMORROW MORNING AND LASTING THROUGH THE DAY BUT CONFIDENCE
IN TIMING AND COVERAGE REMAINS LOW.

32/DAVIS


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

THUNDERSTORMS WILL SPREAD FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA
LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING HOURS. A WEAK FRONT
WILL APPROACH NORTHWEST ALABAMA ON SUNDAY AND STALL OUT ACROSS
NORTH ALABAMA SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL PREVAIL SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. THE FRONT WILL BEGIN TO PUSH OUT OF THE
AREA ON TUESDAY AND THE RAIN WILL DIMINISH FROM NORTH TO SOUTH.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 320 PM CDT SAT APR 30 2016/
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND SUNDAY.

CURRENTLY WATCHING SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS MISSISSIPPI BUT MOST
OF THIS ACTIVITY IS WEAK. THE AIR MASS IN ADVANCE OF THIS
DISORGANIZED MCS WAS LACKING IN QUALITY AND DEPTH OF LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE THIS MORNING DUE TO SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF YESTERDAY`S
STORMS. HOWEVER...WEAK SOUTHERLY FLOW SHOULD CONTINUE TO AID IN
DECENT MOISTURE RECOVERY THIS AFTERNOON. SBCAPE VALUES OF 1500-2000
J/KG AND 500MB FLOW AROUND 40KT WILL SUPPORT A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS MAINLY ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE AREA AS THIS COMPLEX
OF STORMS REGENERATES AND MOVES INTO THE CWA. ISOLATED DAMAGING
WINDS AND QUARTER SIZE HAIL SHOULD BE THE MAIN THREATS...THOUGH
MARGINAL 0-2KM HELICITY COULD SUPPORT A VERY BRIEF TORNADO.

SUBSIDENCE BEHIND STORMS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOULD LEAD TO A
RELATIVE LULL IN ACTIVITY OVERNIGHT. PERSISTENT WEST TO SOUTHWEST
DEEP-LAYER FLOW WILL CONTINUE WITH AN AXIS OF HIGHER PWATS IS
EXPECTED OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA. WEAK LOW-LEVEL
WARM/MOISTURE ADVECTION MAY PROMOTE SHOWER DEVELOPMENT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. THOUGH MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS SHOULD RISE SLIGHTLY DURING THE
DAY ON SUNDAY...MORE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED DURING THE
AFTERNOON WITH DAYTIME HEATING. SOME STORMS COULD BE STRONG WITH
GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL DUE TO 25-35KT 0-6KM SHEAR...BUT WILL
LEAVE MENTION OF SEVERE OUT OF THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR
NOW.

87/GRANTHAM

LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.

A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL STALL OUT ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. GENERALLY WEAK FORCING SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY MORNING WILL PRODUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS. A MORE PRONOUNCED SHORT WAVE TROF WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE AREA MONDAY AFTERNOON AND MONDAY EVENING. DEPENDING ON AMOUNT
OF MORNING CLOUD COVERAGE AND CONVECTION...THERE MAY BE A ZONE OF
SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY SOUTH OF THE STALLED OUT SURFACE FRONT FOR
THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME SEVERE STORMS. CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH ENOUGH
AT THIS TIME TO INCLUDE IN HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK. THE MAIN
UPPER TROF WILL FINALLY PUSH SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY
REGION MONDAY NIGHT AND THE SURFACE FRONT OVER CENTRAL ALABAMA
WILL BEGIN TO NUDGE SOUTHWARD. THERE WILL BE SOME LINGERING
SHOWERS FOR AREAS SOUTH OF I-20 ON TUESDAY...WITH THE RAIN MOVING
OUT OF THE AREA TUESDAY EVENING. REMOVED ANY MENTION OF RAIN ON
WEDNESDAY. COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
AS A BROAD UPPER TROF DEVELOPS OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES.
SOME AREAS WILL LIKELY SEE MIDDLE TO UPPER 40S FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
MORNING ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN COUNTIES.

58/ROSE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     65  80  59  77  56 /  40  70  40  60  50
ANNISTON    66  80  62  78  58 /  30  70  40  60  50
BIRMINGHAM  67  81  63  78  59 /  30  70  40  70  50
TUSCALOOSA  67  81  62  77  59 /  30  70  40  70  50
CALERA      67  80  63  78  60 /  30  70  40  70  50
AUBURN      66  81  64  80  62 /  20  50  40  60  50
MONTGOMERY  67  83  66  82  63 /  20  50  40  50  50
TROY        67  84  66  84  64 /  20  40  40  40  50

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$



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