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Area Forecast Discussion

722
FXUS64 KBMX 021158 AAA
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
658 AM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 12Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

A WEAKNESS AT 500MB OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION WILL
BEGIN TO SHIFT EASTWARD TODAY. MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER
AGREEMENT AND INDICATE THIS FEATURE WILL MOVE ACROSS OUR AREA ON
THURSDAY AND COMBINE WITH A TROUGH OVER THE CAROLINAS ON FRIDAY.
EVENTUALLY THE TROUGH TO OUR EAST WILL SHIFT WESTWARD UNDER THE
ENVELOPE OF A SPRAWLING UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST
U.S. AND SOUTHEAST CANADA. THE WEAK BUT LARGE UPPER-LOW MAY
BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY ACROSS OUR FORECAST EARLY NEXT WEEK.

ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY WITH
PERHAPS THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE AREA BEING FAVORED DUE TO HIGHER
PWAT VALUES. RAIN CHANCES SHOULD INCREASE FOR THE WEEKEND
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST PART OF THE CWA AS THE
UPPER-LOW SHIFTS WESTWARD. THE UPPER-LOW WILL ALSO BRING COOLER
AFTERNOON HIGHS TO THE REGION...AND DIURNALLY-DRIVEN CONVECTION
MAY CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK IF THE UPPER TROUGH HANGS AROUND
AS MODELS SUGGEST.

87/GRANTHAM

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF DISCUSSION.

VFR CONDITIONS FOR MOST...WITH ONLY A COUPLE OF SITES WITH A
LITTLE MVFR FOG POSSIBLE FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS THIS MORNING.
OTHERWISE...LOOK FOR LIGHT WINDS AGAIN WITH STILL AN EASTERN U.S.
SURFACE RIDGE INFLUENCE. MORE CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED
TODAY ALONG WITH SOME CIRRUS. IT MAY BE ENOUGH MOISTURE TODAY FOR
AN ISOLATED SHOWER ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF STATE...POSSIBLY
AFFECTING THE SOUTHERN TAF SITES (MGM/TOI)...BUT AT THIS TIME
CHANCES ARE TOO LOW TO MENTION IN TERMINALS WITH ONLY MARGINAL
OVERALL MOISTURE. CHANCES WILL BE BETTER ON THURSDAY AS RETURN
FLOW INCREASES.

08

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY WITH
HIGHER RAIN CHANCES OVER THE WEEKEND. RH VALUES WILL REMAIN ABOVE
CRITICAL THRESHOLD VALUES. NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED
AT THIS TIME.

87

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     89  69  89  69  90 /  10  10  10  10  10
ANNISTON    89  71  90  70  91 /  10  10  20  10  10
BIRMINGHAM  90  73  90  72  91 /  10  10  20  10  10
TUSCALOOSA  93  73  93  73  94 /  20  10  20  10  10
CALERA      90  73  89  72  91 /  10  10  20  10  10
AUBURN      90  73  89  71  90 /  20  10  30  20  20
MONTGOMERY  94  74  93  73  94 /  20  10  30  20  20
TROY        93  73  91  70  93 /  20  10  30  20  30

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

87/08



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