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Area Forecast Discussion

FXUS64 KBMX 312058

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
358 PM CDT WED AUG 31 2016

Remainder of today through Thursday.

Guidance continues to converge on now Tropical Storm Hermine moving
northward and transitioning to the northeast tonight into Thursday
as the upper ridge is expected to break down allowing the weak
gradients to allow Hermine to be pulled toward the gulf coast.
The latest data does show a slight change in the track a little to
the west as opposed to previous runs, still including the Big Bend
area of Florida, but she could also affect a tad more of the Florida
Panhandle. By Thursday, we should see a little better rain chances
for the southeast as Hermine inches closer toward the Florida coast
and across the rest of the area thanks to an upper trough that will
swing and dig across Eastern Conus allowing for shortwaves to
traverse the base and generate some diurnal convection across
Central Alabama. Winds from Hermine should not be an issue during
the day Thursday with only a few afternoon minor gusts expected (12-
20KTS) generally across the southeast and should remain below
advisory criteria.


Thursday night through Tuesday.

Hermine is currently forecast to make landfall as a strong
tropical storm or weak hurricane near Apalachicola FL Thursday
night and move northeastward across southern Georgia through
Friday. Model guidance has shifted a bit westward and slower with
the track. Rainfall and winds are still expected to be asymmetric
with the greatest impacts on the east side of the track, east and
southeast of the forecast area. However, given the westward
shift, rain chances and QPF were adjusted westward, and increased
in the extreme far southeastern counties. Highest rain chances in
the far southeast will be after midnight Thursday night into
Friday morning. There will probably a sharp cutoff on the
northwest side of the rain shield due to the presence of dry air,
so rain chances will have to continue to be adjusted. Excessive
rainfall is still not expected. Winds in the far southeastern
counties will be breezy especially on the back side of the system
on Friday, with sustained winds currently forecast to be 10-15 kts
with gusts of 20-25 kts. This remains below wind advisory criteria
(sustained 20 kts and/or gusts of 30 kts). Confidence is too low
to mention any wind hazards in the HWO but trends will continue to
be monitored, especially if there are any more westward shifts in
the track. Lightning will probably remain isolated due to limited

Elsewhere across the forecast area, some models do
keep some shower and thunderstorm activity going into Thursday evening
along a frontal boundary and mid-level moisture axis moving in
from the northwest ahead of an approaching upper-level trough. If
these trends continue then low rain chances may need to be
expanded northwestward Thursday night. On Friday, subsidence will
be moving in as Hermine moves in from the east, but an upper-level
trough axis moving through and remnant moisture may at least
squeeze out scattered showers across the east behind Hermine`s
rain shield. A gradient in high temperatures is expected with
highs ranging from the mid 80s east to low 90s west. Dry
conditions should quickly build in Friday evening. With drier air
moving in the typically cooler locations in the north and east
lows will fall into the 60s.

Looking at the extended period, a strong mid-level ridge will
build across the Southeast with highs in the 90s continuing. Only
small chances of isolated afternoon convection are expected mainly
in the far south given sufficient moisture.



18Z TAF Discussion.

As of 1730Z, SCT cumulus clouds are in abundance across central
Alabama, with bases in VFR range. This will continue through the
afternoon, with a few sites possibly seeing a few instances of BKN
coverage. Surface winds will range from northeasterly to easterly
around 10-knots, with gusts between 15-20 knots at times. Given
the environment, I prefer to keep all terminals dry and let radar
trends drive any amendments for spotty showers/an isolated

For tonight, winds will decrease though light ~northeasterly
breezes remain possible with some lingering clouds. VFR conditions
will prevail.




Generally dry conditions are expected for today with slightly
better chances on Thursday, but still low. No impacts are expected
from Tropical Depression 9. Critical fire weather conditions are
not expected. Dry conditions will be in place after Saturday


Gadsden     71  92  70  86  66 /  20  30  20  20  10
Anniston    71  91  71  84  68 /  20  30  20  30  10
Birmingham  74  93  72  88  70 /  20  20  20  10  10
Tuscaloosa  73  95  73  92  70 /  10  20  10  10  10
Calera      73  94  72  88  70 /  10  20  20  10  10
Auburn      73  92  72  84  70 /  10  30  30  40  20
Montgomery  74  96  74  91  73 /  10  20  20  30  10
Troy        72  92  73  89  70 /  20  40  30  30  20





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