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Area Forecast Discussion

153
FXUS64 KBMX 200553
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1153 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 06Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

WELL...WE FINALLY OVERCAME THE DRY AIR THAT WAS IN PLACE THIS
MORNING. VIRGA...IN THE FORM OF SNOW...MOISTENED THE LAYER OVER
CENTRAL ALABAMA AND LIGHT RAIN HAS BECOME WIDESPREAD. MOST
LOCATIONS HAVE HAD MEASURABLE RAIN THIS EVENING WITH AMOUNTS
GENERALLY A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS. A FEW SPOTS SOUTH MAY END
UP WITH AROUND A QUARTER INCH BEFORE IT ENDS EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING.

THE MAIN AREA OF UPWARD MOTION AND DEEPEST MOISTURE PUSH SOUTH AND EAST RATHER
QUICKLY OVERNIGHT. THEREFORE...KEPT THE TREND OF DECREASING RAIN CHANCES
FROM THE NORTHWEST AFTER MIDNIGHT AND MAINLY ENDING SOUTHEAST SATURDAY
MORNING.

A FEW LOCATIONS IN THE NORTHWEST ARE ALREADY INTO THE 30S THIS
EVENING...WITH LOWS 33 TO 35 DEGREES IN A FEW SPOTS. TEMPERATURES
ALOFT A COLD ENOUGH TO PRODUCE SNOW WITH DUAL POL RADAR DATA
INDICATING WET SNOW AS LOW AS 5-6K FT. RELATIVELY WARM AIR RESIDES
BELOW THIS LEVEL AND WET BULB VALUES NEVER GO BELOW 32 DEGREES.
THEREFORE...WILL KEEP MENTION OF ALL RAIN UNTIL IT ENDS.
ADDITIONALLY...NO REAL COLD LOW LEVEL AIR WILL ADVECT INTO CENTRAL
ALABAMA AT ALL. ALTHOUGH SOME PATCHY FOG MAY BE AROUND THE
AREA...BELIEVE THE CLOUDS AND NEAR STEADY TEMPS WILL PREVENT
ANYTHING TOO RESTRICTIVE OR WIDESPREAD.

UPDATED THE HOURLY TRENDS...POPS...AND WEATHER TIMING BUT THE
TREND REMAINS IN INTACT. UPDATES ALREADY OUT.

75


&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF DISCUSSION.

WHILE THERE IS A CERTAINTY THAT RAIN WILL CONTINUE FOR SEVERAL
MORE HOURS ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA TAF LOCATIONS...THERE IS STILL A
GREAT BIT OF UNCERTAINTY REGARDING VISIBILITY AND CEILINGS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE RAIN. MGM AND TOI ARE THE MOST LIKELY
LOCATIONS TO SEE CONDITIONS GET DOWN TO AT LEAST MVFR...
POTENTIALLY LOWER. THE REST...ESPECIALLY BHM AND ANB...WILL BE ON
THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE LOWER CLOUDS. EXPECT FREQUENT UPDATES DUE
TO THE VARIABLE CLOUD CONDITIONS.

THINGS DON`T GET MUCH EASIER...EVEN AFTER THE RAIN PULLS OUT LATER
THIS MORNING. COMPUTER MODEL MOISTURE PROFILES...AND OTHER
AVAILABLE GUIDANCE...SUGGEST THE LOWER CLOUDS MAY STICK AROUND
LONGER IN THE SOUTH THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGH.

/61/

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$





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