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Area Forecast Discussion

518
FXUS64 KBMX 231113
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
613 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 12Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

THE CENTER OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS CURRENTLY LOCATED IN THE
OHIO VALLEY REGION WITH A PRESSURE GRADIENT EXTENDING SOUTHWARD
ACROSS ALABAMA. THIS HAS CAUSED TEMPERATURES TO BE HIGHLY VARIABLE
THIS MORNING WITH SHELTERED LOCATIONS IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER
40S AND HIGHER ELEVATIONS NEAR 50F. ABUNDANT DRY AIR IS IN PLACE
ACROSS THE REGION BEHIND A LARGE EAST COAST TROUGH. ALTHOUGH A
SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES TODAY...
IT WILL HAVE EXTREMELY LIMITED MOISTURE TO WORK WITH AND NO
IMPACT IN TERMS OF PRECIPITATION.

NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH COOL
NIGHTS AND WARM AFTERNOONS AS AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE STRENGTHENS AND
MOVES EASTWARD ACROSS TEXAS BY SATURDAY. AS A FAST-MOVING BROAD
TROUGH MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS...THE RIDGE WILL FLATTEN AND
MOVE EASTWARD BY SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH ABOVE NORMAL AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED. HIGHS MAY REACH THE MID 80S IN A FEW SPOTS
ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

MOISTURE RETURN SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS
TO DEVELOP ALONG A FRONT TO OUR NORTHWEST ON TUESDAY. THIS FRONT
MAY BE SLOW TO MOVE INTO ALABAMA AS MID-LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE
PARALLEL TO THE BOUNDARY. HAVE INTRODUCED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR
WEDNESDAY AS THE FRONT SAGS SOUTHWARD.

87/GRANTHAM

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF DISCUSSION.

OVERALL A VERY NICE TAF CYCLE ONCE AGAIN. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
THROUGH THE PERIOD. SOME HIGHER CLOUDS WILL WORK IN AFTER 00Z.

16

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$








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