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Area Forecast Discussion

642
FXUS64 KBMX 281712
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1212 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.UPDATE...
MIDDAY UPDATE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

LOW-LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW CONTINUES TO INCREASE MOISTURE VALUES
ACROSS THE BOARD. THIS MORNING`S KBMX 12Z SOUNDING STILL INDICATED
LOTS OF DRY AIR ALOFT AND LESS THAN ONE INCH PWATS. SO...IT`S
GOING TO TAKE A LITTLE TIME TO INCREASE MOISTURE ENOUGH TO GET
ANY CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY TO DEVELOP ACROSS NORTHERN AND WESTERN
ALABAMA. WITH MOISTURE ALREADY BECOMING HIGH ENOUGH ACROSS EASTERN
AND SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES...WE CONTINUE TO EXPECT SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND STORMS TO DEVELOP GENERALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE
INTERSTATE 85 CORRIDOR. IN FACT...WE ALREADY HAVE SHOWERS
DEVELOPING IN THESE AREAS AT THIS HOUR. THEREFORE...THE CURRENT
FORECAST IS ON TRACK AND NO MAJOR CHANGES ARE NEEDED AT THIS
TIME.

56/GDG

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF DISCUSSION.

EASTERLY FLOW AROUND THE SURFACE RIDGE HELPING TO BRING IN SOME
CLOUDINESS FROM GEORGIA THIS MORNING. FOR MGM/TOI ~7-8KFT.
FURTHER TO THE NORTH WITH THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS WE ARE SEEING SOME
MVFR STRATUS MOVING IN...BUT THINK THE IFR WILL NOT MAKE ENOUGH
PROGRESS FROM GEORGIA BEFORE WE GET SUFFICIENT MIXING. HAVE
TEMPOED IN MVFR CIGS FOR ASN/ANB. TO THE WEST OF THERE FOR
BHM/EET/TCL...WE SHOULD REMAIN VFR BUT SOME HIGHER STRATOCU IS
POSSIBLE. LOW RAIN CHANCES WILL BE RETURNING FROM THE SOUTHEAST.
CONFIDENCE IS STILL LOW ON TIMING OF DECENT MOISTURE RETURN...SO
FOR NOW WILL LEAVE OUT OF TERMINALS BUT DO HAVE SOME BKN040
CUMULUS FOR THE AFTERNOON.

08


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

MOISTURE VALUES WILL SLOWLY BEGIN TO RISE TODAY. SOME ISO/SCT
CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE IN THE EAST/SOUTHEAST TODAY AND TONIGHT
WITH RAIN CHANCES INCREASING FROM EAST TO WEST ON SATURDAY. FOR
NEXT WEEK...LOOK FOR GENERALLY ISOLATED SHOWER/STORMS EACH DAY. NO
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     88  69  84  69  84 /  20  20  50  40  40
ANNISTON    88  70  83  69  85 /  20  20  60  40  40
BIRMINGHAM  89  71  84  70  86 /  20  20  40  30  30
TUSCALOOSA  91  71  87  70  89 /  10  20  30  20  20
CALERA      89  71  85  70  86 /  20  20  50  30  30
AUBURN      88  71  83  70  85 /  30  30  60  40  40
MONTGOMERY  92  71  87  71  90 /  30  30  60  30  30
TROY        91  70  84  69  89 /  30  30  60  30  30

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$



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