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Area Forecast Discussion

665
FXUS64 KBMX 031805
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
105 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 18Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

THE OVERALL WEATHER PATTERN HAS CHANGED VERY LITTLE OVER THE PAST
FEW DAYS WITH A LARGE-SCALE TROUGH IN PLACE OVER THE EASTERN HALF
OF THE COUNTRY. TIMING OF SHORTWAVES ROTATING AROUND THE BASE OF
THE TROUGH HAS BEEN PROBLEMATIC TO SAY THE LEAST. CONFIDENCE IS A
BIT HIGHER IN THIS FORECAST PACKAGE THOUGH...AS MODELS GENERALLY
AGREE IN THE EVOLUTION OF THE PATTERN THROUGH SUNDAY. A POSITIVELY
TILTED TROUGH AXIS STRETCHING FROM INDIANA TO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
WILL APPROACH OUR AREA OVER THE NEXT 36 TO 48 HOURS. SEVERAL
EMBEDDED IMPULSES ARE EXPECTED TO EJECT EASTWARD BEFORE THE MAIN
TROUGH AXIS MOVES INTO THE AREA ON SUNDAY. LOW-LEVEL FLOW
CIRCULATING AROUND A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN GULF WILL
CONTINUE TO PROVIDE AN EXCELLENT SOURCE OF MOISTURE DURING THIS
TIME FRAME. THE AFOREMENTIONED SETUP SHOULD LEAD TO A CORRIDOR OF
PERSISTENT SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THAT SAGS SLOWLY
SOUTHWARD AS THE TROUGH AXIS APPROACHES. WE ARE ALREADY SEEING
EVIDENCE OF THIS IN THE FORM OF A BAND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS
CURRENTLY EXTENDING WEST TO EAST FOR SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES AND
FLIRTING WITH THE NORTHERN FRINGE OF THE CWA. AS A RESULT...POPS
HAVE BEEN RAISED FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT FOR AREAS MAINLY NEAR AND
NORTH OF I-20. PWAT VALUES NEAR 2 INCHES AND A SYNOPTIC PATTERN
SUPPORTIVE OF TRAINING ECHOES COULD LEAD TO SEVERAL INCHES OF
RAINFALL IN A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME. WILL INTRODUCE A POTENTIAL FOR
ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING INTO THE HWO THROUGH TONIGHT...AND THIS
MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED INTO SATURDAY OR SATURDAY NIGHT AS WELL.

THE TROUGH WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE THROUGH AND HIGH POPS ARE
WARRANTED FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AS WELL. THE MAIN ZONE OF
RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO SAG SLOWLY SOUTHWARD ACROSS
THE CENTRAL AND POSSIBLY INTO THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE AREA BY
SUNDAY. SOMEWHAT LOWER RAIN CHANCES ARE EXPECTED BY MONDAY AND
TUESDAY THE TROUGH FINALLY MOVES EASTWARD AND WEAKENS.

87/GRANTHAM


&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

SOUTHWARD MOVING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY HAS SURE CREATED A DIFFICULT
FORECAST FROM AN AVIATION PERSPECTIVE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MUCH
OF THE COMPUTER MODEL GUIDANCE IS NEXT TO USELESS...AS IT SHOWS
RAIN CHANCES AS WAY TOO LOW FOR PLACES LIKE BHM AND ANB THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON. SHOWERS AND STORMS HAVE INDEED
STARTED TO REFORM RIGHT ALONG THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY...VERY NEAR BHM
OVER TO ANB/ASN. THE GENERAL TREND SHOULD BE FOR THAT BOUNDARY TO
CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTHWARD...WITH ADDITIONAL CONVECTION FIRING UP
ALONG IT...EVENTUALLY AFFECTING TCL AND EET ALONG WITH THE
AFOREMENTIONED TERMINALS. HARD TO GET A GRASP UP HOW FAR SOUTH THE
RAIN WILL EVENTUALLY GET...HOWEVER. I INCLUDED A VCSH AT MGM TO AT
LEAST SHOW THE POSSIBILITY THERE. LEFT IT OUT AT TOI DUE TO EVEN
MORE UNCERTAINTY. EVEN OUTSIDE OF RAIN AREAS...CEILINGS ARE A BIT
UNCERTAIN AS WELL.

/61/

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

HIGH HUMIDITY VALUES AND ABOVE NORMAL RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE
FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THERE ARE NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$



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