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Area Forecast Discussion

331
FXUS64 KBMX 232044
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
244 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

.DISCUSSION...

THE STRONG SHORTWAVE WHICH BROUGHT THE RAINFALL AND THREAT OF
SEVERE STORMS IN SOUTHEAST ALABAMA IS CONTINUING TO LIFT ACROSS
THE DEEP SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON. THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW IN
NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI IS ALSO LIFTING RAPIDLY NORTHEASTWARD. DRIER AIR
IS PUSHING IN FROM THE WEST AND RAINFALL OVER MOST OF CENTRAL
ALABAMA IS EXPECTED TO END BY 00Z. SOME LINGERING RAIN OVER THE
NORTHWEST MAY BE POSSIBLE INTO THE VERY EARLY EVENING AS THE
SURFACE LOW SPINS CLOSE TO THE AREA.

AFTER THIS SYSTEM EXITS...A BROAD TROUGH WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS
THE CENTRAL CONUS WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER CENTRAL ALABAMA
THROUGH MID WEEK. ANOTHER LOW LATITUDE SHORTWAVE WILL THEN BRING A
CHANCE FOR SOME RAIN TO OUR SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY MORNING AS MOISTURE GETS PULLED BRIEFLY TO THE NORTH.
THIS IS MAINLY A RAIN EVENT FOR GA AND FL AS A SURFACE LOW
DEVELOPS AND RACES UP THE SOUTHEAST US COAST.

THANKSGIVING DAY AND THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND LOOK VERY NICE AT THIS
TIME. UPPER RIDGING WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP IN THE EASTERN GULF WITH
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AT THE SURFACE. PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS HAD BEEN
SHOWING A CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT RAIN SATURDAY AND SUNDAY ACROSS
THE NORTH...BUT WITH THE BUILDING RIDGE I THINK NOTHING MORE THAN
A FEW CLOUDS AT THIS TIME.

88

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS AFFECTING CENTRAL
ALABAMA TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON...REDUCING VIS TO LIFR AT TIMES. IN
ADDITION...CIGS ARE IFR TO MVFR. THESE CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST UNTIL
RAIN PUSHES NORTH AND EAST OF THE AREA. TIMED THE BACK EDGE OF THE
RAIN SHIELD COMING ACROSS EAST MS TO APPROXIMATE RAIN ENDING TIMES
AT TERMINALS. HOWEVER...THERE COULD BE LIGHT RAINFALL BEHIND THIS
LINE...BUT CURRENT TRACK AS IT MOVING NORTH OF ALL TERMINALS. THERE
MIGHT BE A PERIOD OF BKN CIGS AS RAIN ENDS...BUT LOW STRATUS WILL
RETURN THIS EVENING. GIVEN THE MOIST GROUND CONDITIONS...EXPECT FOG
TO DEVELOP AS WELL...MIGHT HAVE TO ADJUST VIS DOWN BELOW MVFR.

WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO GUST THIS AFTERNOON...BECOMING SOUTHERLY AT
ALL TERMINALS. THE EXCEPTION IS ANB WHERE EASTERLY WINDS HAVE
PERSISTED TODAY...AND A SHIFT TO THE SOUTHEAST IS EXPECTED.
TONIGHT...WINDS WILL GRADUALLY BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY AT ALL TERMINALS
AROUND 10KTS. AS WINDS INCREASE FROM THE WEST MONDAY MORNING...CIGS
WILL BEGIN TO LIFT. HOWEVER...KEPT MVFR CIGS IN THROUGH AT LEAST
18Z. HAVE INTRODUCED 12-15KT WINDS FOR MONDAY MORNING. SOME GUIDANCE
IS INDICATING HIGHER GUSTS AND THESE VALUES COULD BE INCREASED
WITH FUTURE FORECASTS.

14


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     51  64  34  54  32 /  10  10  10  10  10
ANNISTON    54  67  37  56  35 /  10  10  10  10  20
BIRMINGHAM  56  65  39  56  36 /  10  10   0  10  10
TUSCALOOSA  55  64  38  58  34 /  10  10   0   0  10
CALERA      54  64  38  57  36 /  10  10   0  10  10
AUBURN      58  70  41  56  38 /  10  10   0  10  40
MONTGOMERY  57  72  40  59  35 /  10  10   0  10  20
TROY        57  74  41  58  35 /  10  10   0  20  30

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$








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