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Area Forecast Discussion

973
FXUS64 KBMX 011143
AFDBMX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
643 AM CDT FRI JUL 1 2016

.UPDATE...
For 12Z Aviation.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
Today and Tonight.

A surface front/effective dryline will become pinned near the far
southeastern portion of the forecast area today thanks to dry-air
advection and boundary-layer mixing on its northern flank.
Maintained dew points toward 70F + daytime heating and presence of
the front could give rise to a few budding showers and storms during
the afternoon. Elsewhere/for the rest of the forecast area, fair
weather and a low-humidity air mass will continue. Highs in the low
90Fs are forecast area-wide, with a few pockets of mid 90Fs
possible. Tranquil weather is expected for tonight, with lows on
either side of 70F.

89/GSatterwhite

.LONG TERM...
Saturday through Thursday.

Latest guidance shows only minor disturbances in the upper levels
under a very weak upper flow across Alabama and a flat trough/
zonal flow to the north for Saturday. There should not be much
left of the present boundary as it should continue to weaken with
a less overall difference in dew points as weak onshore flow
slowly returns with a retrograding surface gulf ridge. There will
be a another front approaching the Tennessee Valley by Saturday.
This front should stall just to our north, but a few stray storms
could be possible across the far north with the help of possible
outflows during the afternoon.

By Sunday, we should see the 2nd stalled front get pulled back
well to the north/northeast as the low races across Eastern CONUS.
GFS has this low lingering an additional day, but the zonal upper
flow should help this low to progress toward the east coast. We
should begin to transition back to more typical summertime
convection with the flat non progressive upper flow to the north
and the typical gulf retrograding ridging to the south with
hot/humid conditions and heat induced diurnally based activity for
much of next week. However, we continue to have some significant
model discrepancies as the GFS tries to break down the broad gulf
ridge quickly, splitting with one building over Texas and thus
giving way to a more turbulent northwest flow regime, more
shortwaves, and thus shower/storm activity. Keeping to the low
side of the extended guidance for pops with this wider spread and
a lower confidence.

08


&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF Discussion.

Fog and low clouds affecting the two southern TAF sites (TOI-
MGM) are expected to gradually mix out, improving toward VFR by
~mid- morning. Until then, additional occurrences of visibility
and ceilings as low as the LIFR/MVFR range are possible, as
observed early this morning. The latest observations indicate some
improvement as of the time of this writing.

VFR conditions are forecast for the remaining TAF sites, with TOI
and MGM joining the pack post low clouds and fog. Light surface
winds will trend area-wide. The only thing to keep an eye on this
afternoon is a slight chance for an isolated shower or storm near
TOI. Chances and confidence are low enough to preclude any
introduction to the forecast.

89/GSatterwhite

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Isolated shower and thunderstorm activity will remain possible
today, mainly across the far southeast part of the area. Drier
and less humid conditions are expected across the northwest. Rain
chances become a little better Sunday into the beginning of next
week and more diurnally influenced. No fire weather concerns are
expected at this time.

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$



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