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Area Forecast Discussion

772
FXUS64 KBMX 120547
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1147 PM CST THU FEB 11 2016

.UPDATE...
FOR 06Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED JUST SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS
EVENING. THIS IS A BIT FURTHER SOUTH THAN MOST MODELS WERE
INDICATING...AND THE RAP/HRRR SEEM TO BE HANDLING THE FRONTAL
POSITION THE BEST. THE FRONT MAY TRY TO PUSH NORTH TOWARDS
DAYBREAK BASED ON THE RAP/HRRR GUIDANCE...WHICH WILL MAKE THE LOW
TEMPERATURE FORECAST TRICKY AS LOW 50S DEWPOINTS TRY TO PUSH
NORTHWARD. DID NOT MAKE ANY CHANGES TO LOWS IN THE SOUTHEAST, BUT
DID LOWER LOW TEMPERATURES BY A DEGREE OR TWO IN THE NORTH BASED
ON OBSERVATIONS AND LOWER DEW POINTS. SOME LOWER CLOUDS HAVE
DEVELOPED ALONG AND NORTH OF THE FRONT IN THE SOUTHEASTERN
COUNTIES...WHILE IN THE NORTH SOME HIGH CLOUDS ARE STREAMING IN
FROM THE NORTHWEST AHEAD OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH. THE BULK OF THE
HIGH CLOUDS WILL LIKELY REMAIN NORTH OF THE AREA AND NOT HAVE A
HUGE IMPACT ON TEMPERATURES...AND DRY LOW-LEVELS WILL PREVENT ANY
PRECIPITATION. SOME FOG MAY BE POSSIBLE ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE
FRONT...BUT CURRENTLY THINK IT WILL STAY JUST SOUTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA.

32/DAVIS

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF DISCUSSION.

LOW CLOUDS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS SOUTHERN ALABAMA LATE THIS
EVENING ALONG A STALLED SURFACE FRONT. THOSE LOW CLOUDS ARE
FORECAST TO EXPAND ACROSS KTOI OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...THEN
NORTHWARD TO KMGM BY SUNRISE ON FRIDAY. HAVE ADDED IN IFR CIGS AT
KTOI AND MVFR AT KMGM THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS THEN QUICKLY
MIXING OUT THROUGH 15Z. SURFACE WINDS WILL REMAIN CALM OR LIGHT
AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT...BECOMING NORTHWESTERLY DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS ON FRIDAY.

56/GDG

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. STRONGER
WINDS ARE EXPECTED ON FRIDAY BUT RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES SHOULD
REMAIN ABOVE 30 PERCENT AGAIN. A MUCH DRIER...ARCTIC AIRMASS WILL
MOVE INTO THE REGION ON SATURDAY WITH DEW POINTS IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS AND BRISK NORTHERLY WINDS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     29  57  27  37  22 /   0  10   0   0   0
ANNISTON    32  58  28  39  23 /   0  10   0   0   0
BIRMINGHAM  34  59  28  39  23 /   0   0   0   0   0
TUSCALOOSA  35  62  31  43  24 /   0   0   0   0   0
CALERA      36  61  31  42  25 /   0   0   0   0   0
AUBURN      40  64  32  44  26 /   0  10   0   0   0
MONTGOMERY  42  68  35  48  27 /   0   0   0   0   0
TROY        46  68  36  49  27 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$



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