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Area Forecast Discussion

392
FXUS64 KBMX 270852
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
352 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...

NO RAIN IN THE IMMEDIATE VICINITY OF CENTRAL ALABAMA EARLY THIS
MORNING. A CLUSTER OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAS BEEN NEARLY
STATIONARY ACROSS WEST CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI THE PAST 6 HOURS. THIS
AREA SEEMS TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE TAIL END OF A VORT MAX OVER
IOWA. A MORE ORGANIZED AREA OF CONVECTION HAS BEEN SLOWLY PUSHING
EASTWARD OVER EAST TEXAS. THE HRRR MODEL HAS BEEN PERFORMING WELL
THE PAST FEW DAYS AND WILL LEAN HEAVILY TOWARDS THIS MODEL FOR
THE RAIN FORECAST FOR TODAY. THE HRRR MODEL EXPANDS THE
MISSISSIPPI CONVECTION EASTWARD LATER THIS MORNING AND BRINGS A
BAND OF CONVECTION INTO WEST ALABAMA AROUND NOON TODAY. LIKE
PREVIOUS DAYS..THE CONVECTIVE BAND SPREADS EASTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL
ALABAMA DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS AND UPTICKS IN INTENSITY AS IT
ENCOUNTERS A MORE UNSTABLE AIR MASS. THE CONVECTION WILL MOSTLY BE
EAST OF ALABAMA BY SUNSET AND DO NOT EXPECT MUCH COVERAGE AFTER 9
PM THIS EVENING. BY THURSDAY THE UPPER LEVEL ZONAL FLOW BECOMES
LESS PRONOUNCED AND THE CONVECTION SHOULD BE MORE DIURNAL AND LESS
ORGANIZED.

ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE SOUTHEAST
STATES...AND DRIER MID LEVEL AIR WORKS INTO SOUTHEAST ALABAMA.
HIGHER RAIN CHANCES FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WILL BE ACROSS THE
NORTHERN COUNTIES. A SHORT WAVE TROF MOVING THROUGH THE OHIO
VALLEY REGION ON SATURDAY WILL PUSH A TROF AXIS INTO TENNESSEE.
THIS TROF AXIS WILL LIKELY STALL OUT JUST NORTH OF ALABAMA AS IT
ENCOUNTERS THE SOUTHEAST RIDGE. A SHORT WAVE TROF OVER TEXAS WILL
HELP PULL GULF MOISTURE NORTHWARD MONDAY AND TUESDAY AND HELP ERODE
THE DRIER AIR ASSOCIATED WITH SOUTHEAST RIDGE. EXPECT SCATTERED
CONVECTION ACROSS ALL OF CENTRAL ALABAMA MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

58/ROSE


&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF DISCUSSION.

THE 00Z BMX SOUNDING HAS A RATHER PRONOUNCED LOW LEVEL INVERSION.
THIS INVERSION WILL CAP THE MOISTURE IN THE LOW LEVELS.
ADDITIONALLY...THE GROUND IS AT LEAST WET IN ALL AREAS DUE TO
RECENT RAINFALL. THE HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS ARE NOW STARTING TO
INDICATE A BIT MORE ISENTROPIC LIFT AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA OVERNIGHT. DO NOT THINK ALL
LOCATIONS WILL BE COMPLETELY CALM OVERNIGHT...SO A MIX OF LOW
CLOUDS...VERY LOW CLOUDS...AND FOG IS LIKELY. THEREFORE...HAVE
ADJUSTED THE TERMINAL FORECAST OVERNIGHT TO A MIX OF MVFR/IFR
BECOMING IFR WITH THE LOWEST CONDITIONS NEAR SUNRISE...MORE FOG
MENTIONED AT MGM/TOI. CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO BACK TO MVFR BETWEEN
14-16Z. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ABOUT A 50 PERCENT CHANCE
AND HAVE THEM MENTION AS VCTS ALL BUT ANB/ASN ATTM. BY
00-02Z...ONLY BLOW OFF CLOUDS REMAIN.

WINDS WILL BE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST PREDOMINANTLY...BUT COULD HAVE A
VARIABLE NATURE FROM TIME TO TIME AND GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 KTS.

THIS SAME GENERAL PATTERN REMAINS IN PLACE THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS
HIGH PRESSURE SITS EAST OF THE AREA AND THE STORM TRACK REMAINS FROM
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL KEEP MOISTURE
RATHER HIGH AND RAIN CHANCES EACH PERIOD.

75


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     81  66  84  66  84 /  70  30  40  20  30
ANNISTON    83  67  84  67  85 /  60  30  40  20  30
BIRMINGHAM  82  68  84  68  85 /  70  30  40  20  30
TUSCALOOSA  83  67  86  68  87 /  70  30  40  20  30
CALERA      82  68  84  67  85 /  60  30  40  20  30
AUBURN      85  65  83  66  84 /  60  30  50  20  20
MONTGOMERY  85  68  87  68  88 /  60  40  50  20  30
TROY        85  67  86  67  87 /  60  30  50  20  20

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$



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