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Area Forecast Discussion

667
FXUS64 KBMX 020302 AAB
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1002 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

.UPDATE...
EVENING UPDATE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

CONVECTION IS PRETTY MUCH DONE ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA FOR TONIGHT
WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND A FLAT UPPER RIDGE OVER US.
CLOUDINESS IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO DECREASE OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS. HAVE REMOVED POP MENTION FROM GRIDS/ZONES. OTHERWISE...ONLY
A FEW MINOR TWEAKS FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS WITH LESS CLOUD COVER AND
SLIGHTLY LESS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO ENCOURAGE FOG DEVELOPMENT.
UPDATE ALREADY OUT.

08/MK

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION.

SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH THIS EVENING WITH VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. ISOLATED SHOWERS
AND STORM MAY POSE A THREAT TO TAF SITES FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON BUT
CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW IN TIMING AND LOCATION TO INCLUDE ANY VCTS.
WINDS SHOULD REMAIN LIGHT AND GENERALLY FROM THE SOUTHWEST.

87/GRANTHAM

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 310 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014/

THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK AND NO SIGNIFICANT CHANCES MADE TO
THE NEXT 7 DAYS. UPPER RIDGING IS BUILDING IN OVER THE AREA BUT IT
IS A LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGE WITH PLENTY OF HOLES IN IT TO GET POCKETS
OF CONVECTION...SUCH AS TODAY. THERE COULD BE A DAY OR TWO WHERE SOME
WEAK VORTICITY AT THE 700 TO 500 MB LEVEL TRAVERSES THE AREA
INCREASING THE COVERAGE. THE MODELS SORTA HINTED AT THIS THE PAST
COUPLE OF DAYS BETWEEN WEDNESDAY AND FRIDAY. THINK SCATTERED POPS
STILL A GOOD OPTION AT THIS POINT. THE ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORMS
FIRING OFF THE SHORTWAVE AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN THE MIDWEST AND
OHIO VALLEY SHOULD STAY NORTH OF THE AREA. TEMPERATURES THIS WEEK
ARE GOING TO BE HOT WITH HIGHS IN THE 90S AND LOWS IN THE UPPER
60S TO MID 70S.

NEXT WEEKEND...SOME SUGGESTION OF A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHING
CLOSE ENOUGH TO KEEP POPS AT OR ABOVE AVERAGE. THE GFS AND EURO
PUSH THE FRONT INTO THE STATE SO SOME HIGHER POPS MAY BE WARRANTED
LATER ON FOR THE SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY TIME FRAME. TEMPERATURES
HOVERING AROUND 90 AND 70.

88

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     69  92  68  93  68 /  10  20  20  30  20
ANNISTON    71  93  70  93  71 /  10  20  20  30  20
BIRMINGHAM  73  93  74  94  73 /  10  20  20  30  20
TUSCALOOSA  73  95  72  95  71 /  10  20  20  30  20
CALERA      72  93  72  93  72 /  10  20  20  30  20
AUBURN      72  93  73  92  72 /  10  20  20  30  20
MONTGOMERY  73  95  73  95  73 /  10  20  20  30  20
TROY        70  94  71  94  72 /  10  20  20  30  20

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

08/87/88





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