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Area Forecast Discussion

532
FXUS64 KBMX 011812
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
112 PM CDT FRI AUG 1 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 18Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

STRATUS DECK AND INCREASED MOISTURE HAS PUSHED WESTWARD INTO
ALABAMA. THESE CLOUDS WERE ROUGHLY FROM BIRMINGHAM TO GADSDEN TO
MONTGOMERY AND EASTWARD. THE LOW CLOUD COVER WAS HOLDING TEMPS IN
THE LOW TO MID 70S. WEST...WE ARE SEEING SOME SUN AND TEMPS HAVE
JUMPED INTO THE LOW 80S WITH A CUMULUS FIELD DEVELOPING.

ONE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WAS EXITING EASTWARD THROUGH GEORGIA
WHILE WEAK SURFACE LOW WAS BACK OVER LOUISIANA. AS FAR AS POPS ARE
CONCERNING...THE OVERALL FORCING IS RATHER WEAK WHILE INSTABILITY
IS ALSO ON THE WEAK SIDE. LEFT RAIN CHANCES GENERALLY NEAR NORMAL
FOR SUMMER AROUND 35 PERCENT. MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO THE HOURLY
GRIDS BASED ON CLOUD COVER AND LOWERED HIGHS IN THE EAST.

75


&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

MVFR STRATUS DECK HOLDING ON EAST...BUT EROSION AND LIFTING ARE
OCCURRING AND EXPECT VFR SHORTLY AT ALL TERMINALS. WITH THE
ABSENCE OF GREAT LIFT AND LIMITED INSTABILITY...DID NOT MENTION
ANY SHOWERS OR STORMS AT TERMINALS THIS FORECAST PERIOD...ALTHOUGH
POPS REMAIN NEAR NORMAL AROUND 35 PERCENT AT ANY ONE LOCATION.

IT APPEARS THERE WILL BE SOME LINGERING MOISTURE OVER CENTRAL
ALABAMA THAT PUSHED IN FROM THE EAST LAST NIGHT. AT THIS TIME...IT
LOOKS AS THOUGH THE BEST ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL BE NEAR THE CENTRAL
SITES OF BHM/EET/TCL. ADDED SOME VFR FOG WITH MVFR CEILINGS. ADDED
ONLY A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CEILINGS AT THE REMAINDER OF THE SITES
AROUND SUNRISE.

75

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 519 AM CDT FRI AUG 1 2014/

THIS MORNING WE HAVE ABUNDANT MID/UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS FOR THE MOST
PART ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOME STRATUS
ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN COUNTIES OF THE STATE. NORTHEAST/EASTERLY
LIGHT LOW LEVEL FLOW OVERNIGHT HAS HELPED WITH THE STRATUS
TRANSPORT. THE CLOUD COVER AND WINDS HAVE KEPT TEMPERATURES MILDER
ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE STATE ESPECIALLY. A STALLED
BOUNDARY REMAINS ACROSS THE COAST. THE SURFACE LOW ASSOCIATED WITH
IT IS EXPECTED TO WAFFLE/ALONG THE COAST OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
OVERALL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE WITH A FEW SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE TODAY WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND SOME WEAK
UPPER SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH THE BASE OF THE EASTERN U.S.
TROUGH.

AS WE MOVE INTO THE WEEKEND INTO THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK...
TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE AS THE COOLER FLOW IS CUT OFF WITH
WARMEST READINGS IN THE SOUTH/WEST AS SOME OF THE SOUTHEAST COULD
BE A DEGREE OR SO MILDER DEPENDING ON ONSET OF CONVECTION WITH THE
EAST FLOW. RAIN CHANCES SHOULD INCREASE AS WE MOVE INTO THE
WEEKEND AS THE SURFACE LOW ALONG THE COAST INTERACTS WITH WEAK
UPPER SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH THE BASE OF THE UPPER LOW PRESSURE
TROUGH OVER EASTERN CANADA THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND.
ALSO...THE UPPER TROUGH SHOULD DIG DECENTLY ACROSS THE
SOUTHEASTERN U.S. AS WE PROGRESS THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS THE MAIN
LOW MOVES INTO THE ATLANTIC SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

BY TUESDAY...THE REMAINING ENERGY FROM THE UPPER TROUGH LOOKS TO
WEAKEN WITH A FLATTENING FLOW BY WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE NORTHEAST
U.S. AND RIDGING BUILDING OVER THE SOUTHWEST U.S. AND THE
EASTERN GULF INTO THE CARIBBEAN WITH VERY WEAK FLOW IN BETWEEN AS
WE MOVE INTO MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THUS...WE ARE LOOKING TO RETURN
TO A MORE SUMMERTIME LIKE DIURNALLY INFLUENCED PATTERN.

AT THIS TIME WE ARE NOT LOOKING AT ANY BIG IMPACTS FROM BERTHA AS
SHE SHOULD REMAIN FAR TO THE EAST OF ALABAMA OVER THE CARIBBEAN
AND ATLANTIC.

08/MK

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     67  86  67  86  67 /  30  50  30  40  30
ANNISTON    68  85  67  85  68 /  30  50  40  50  30
BIRMINGHAM  69  86  69  87  69 /  20  50  30  40  30
TUSCALOOSA  69  87  69  89  69 /  20  50  30  40  30
CALERA      69  86  70  87  69 /  20  50  40  40  30
AUBURN      69  86  70  85  69 /  30  50  40  60  30
MONTGOMERY  71  89  71  88  71 /  20  50  40  60  30
TROY        69  88  71  87  69 /  20  50  40  60  30

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$







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