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Area Forecast Discussion

FXUS64 KBMX 241742

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
1242 PM CDT SAT SEP 24 2016

For 18Z Aviation.



Minor adjustments made to the forecast but still on track to be
another hot day across central Alabama. Temperatures quickly
rising into the low to mid 90`s at this hour with highs expected
in the mid to upper 90`s late this afternoon. Cumulus clouds are
developing across east-central counties due to increased moisture
moving in from the east due to a compact upper low located over
southwest Georgia. Retaining low end rain chances across our south
and central counties through this afternoon.



Today and Tonight.

Record high temperatures were set across the area on Friday due to a
large ridge over the southern states and abnormally dry soil
conditions. Looking at 1000-850mb thickness forecasts for today,
values are similar to yesterday, and see no reason to go with cooler
temperatures today than on Friday. The only good news is that
afternoon humidity levels will be low due to a deep mixing layer.
Several of the meso-scale models are depicting isolated afternoon
showers across the southern counties, and will keep these in the
forecast. Skies will clear tonight with warm temperatures.



Sunday through Saturday.

Upper low currently over southern Georgia retrogrades back over
central Alabama on Sunday giving some slight chances of rain over
our southern counties along and south of the I-85 corridor. Models
have come into better agreement in the last several runs in
regards to the approaching front, which is set to move through the
region on Monday and Tuesday. The moisture return ahead of the
front is limited, and this, coupled with weaker sfc convergence
along the frontal boundary, will lead to more scattered
showers/storms throughout the day on Monday. Rain chances expected
to decrease in coverage by Monday night as the front moves
southeastward. Some lingering showers are possible south of the
I-85 corridor overnight Monday into early Tuesday morning before
the front moves south of the area ending the chances of rain. For
the rest of the week, ridging builds in to the region keeping rain
chances low. Temperatures expected cool back to near normal with
highs in the 80s.



18Z TAF Discussion.

VFR conditions are expected through the period. FEW to SCT clouds
expected today, especially east-central as moisture aloft
increases from the east. A slight chance of SHRA is forecast for
MGM/TOI today, however, chances are too low to mention. No
concerns overnight. An upper low will provide more support on
Sunday for isolated SHRA/TSRA at MGM/TOI from late morning through
the afternoon hours.




Slight chance of isolated showers/storms on Sunday. A front with
better rain chances will move through on Monday into Tuesday
morning. Beginning Tuesday afternoon, drier weather returns for
the remainder of the week. No fire weather concerns are




Record Highs for Saturday September 24th:

Birmingham  99   1931
Tuscaloosa  97   1961
Anniston    96   1931
Montgomery  98   1931


Gadsden     68  92  67  90  63 /   0  10  10  30  30
Anniston    68  92  69  89  65 /   0  10  10  30  30
Birmingham  74  93  71  90  65 /   0  10  10  30  30
Tuscaloosa  71  95  70  92  66 /  10  20  10  30  30
Calera      70  93  69  90  66 /   0  20  10  30  30
Auburn      70  91  69  89  68 /  10  20  10  30  30
Montgomery  71  94  70  93  69 /  10  20  10  30  30
Troy        69  91  69  89  68 /  10  30  10  30  30





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