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Area Forecast Discussion

524
FXUS64 KBMX 261535
AFDBMX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
1035 AM CDT THU MAY 26 2016

.UPDATE...
Morning Update.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Upper high was centered over Alabama which will keep convection on
the periphery states this afternoon. 10 am surface temps are
running very close to numbers from 24 hours ago, so forecast highs
look on track.

58/rose

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF Discussion.

High pressure remains in control with VFR conditions expected for
most of the next 24 hours. There could be some patchy, light MVFR
fog at TOI after 8Z on Friday as southerly flow provides favorable
conditions for fog development.

16


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Mostly dry conditions are expected through the week with only
minimal rain chances. Low level moisture will slowly increase
through the end of the week. There are no fire weather concerns at
this time.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/Issued 632 AM CDT THU MAY 26 2016/

Lots of action happening well to our west, but the weather across
central Alabama will remain comparatively tranquil over the next 7
days. The upper levels will be dominated by a broad southwest to
northeast flow regime, with a building upper ridge from the
eastern Gulf coast to the eastern Great Lakes. This flow pattern
will serve to keep the primary storm track to Alabama`s west and
north, while also allowing temperatures to remain near or above
seasonal normals.

Of course, there`s always the possibility that a large complex of
storms could get a head of steam going and force its way into
Alabama. And there`s been a couple lately that have tried, but
eventually succumbed to the subsidence of the upper level ridge.

We will have to watch for potential tropical or sub-tropical
development north of the Bahamas. But the latest forecasts suggest
that anything that does form will stay far enough to Alabama`s
east to have any direct impact.

Other than that, will maintain the summerlike temps and largely
diurnally driven small POPs through the remainder of the forecast
period.

/61/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden     89  64  88  65  86 /  10  10  20  20  20
Anniston    89  66  88  66  86 /  10  10  20  20  20
Birmingham  90  68  89  68  86 /  10  10  20  20  20
Tuscaloosa  90  67  90  68  88 /  10   0  10  20  20
Calera      89  66  89  67  86 /  10  10  10  20  20
Auburn      88  67  88  66  86 /  10  10  10   0  10
Montgomery  91  67  91  67  89 /  10  10  10  10  10
Troy        90  68  90  66  88 /  10  10  10  10  10

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$



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