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Area Forecast Discussion

113
FXUS64 KBMX 280325
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1025 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.UPDATE...
EVENING UPDATE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

ABNORMALLY SHARP SYNOPTIC PATTERN DEVELOPING OVER THE EAST...AS
BIG TROUGH IS DIGGING OUR WAY. THE STRONG COLD FRONT WAS LOCATED
FROM NEAR THE KENTUCKY TENNESSEE STATE LINE SOUTHWESTWARD INTO
NORTHERN ARKANSAS. STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WERE LOCATED
JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT OVER A LARGE PART OF TENNESSEE. THE
ACTIVITY TO OUR NORTH SHOULD WEAKEN AS IT APPROACHES WITH
LESSENING COVERAGE. BUT DID INCREASE RAIN CHANCES A TAD NORTHEAST.

BULK SHEAR VALUES CURRENTLY NEAR 50 KTS WHERE SEVERE IS OCCURRING
DROPS OFF TO 25 KTS ON MONDAY OVER CENTRAL ALABAMA. BUT THE
THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT IS RATHER BUOYANT AND THE LOW LEVELS ARE
VERY MOIST. AMAZINGLY ENOUGH...MEAN RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ONLY
REACH THE 60 TO 70 PERCENT THRESHOLD WITH HIGHER HEIGHTS ALOFT.

THEREFORE...IT APPEARS THE STORM STRENGTH ON MONDAY WILL BE
HIGHLY DIURNALLY DEPENDENT. WINDS ALOFT DO INCREASE...SO SOME UP
GROWTH IS POSSIBLE INTO SEGMENTS...SO ISOLATED SEVERE REMAINS IN
THE FORECAST. DID MOVE THE MAIN SEVERE THREAT AREA BACK NORTHWARD
A BIT. NOW IT WILL BE ADVERTISED NEAR AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM
DEMOPOLIS TO CLANTON TO ALEXANDER CITY. THE MAIN THREAT REMAINS
DAMAGING WINDS.

THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD LOOKS ON TRACK WITH ONLY
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS AT THIS TIME. UPDATED FORECAST AND HWO ALREADY
OUT.

75

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION.

SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE TO AROUND 5 KTS
THIS EVENING. THERE COULD BE LIGHT PATCHY FOG ACROSS THE AREA
TONIGHT...BUT THE BEST CHANCE IS AT TOI WHERE MVFR/IFR VIS COULD
OCCUR.

A FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTHWARD EARLY MONDAY INTO CENTRAL
ALABAMA. EXPECT BROKEN MVFR CIGS AND A BROKEN LINE OF SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE FRONT AS IT APPROACHES NORTHERN TERMINALS
BEFORE SUNRISE. WENT AHEAD AND PUT IN TEMPO SHRA FOR THE NORTHERN
SITES BUT LEFT OUT THUNDER OVERNIGHT. CLOUD DECKS WILL MERGE INTO
THE MVFR CRITERIA SO WENT AHEAD AND TRENDED THAT WAY. SKIES WILL
CLEAR THROUGH THE MORNING BEHIND THE FRONT.

THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE SOUTHWARD...WITH AT LEAST SCATTERED
CONVECTION RE-FIRING ALONG THE BOUNDARY DURING THE AFTERNOON.
LATEST MODEL RUNS HAVE THE RAIN SOUTH OF MGM BY 18 SO TOI WOULD BE
THE BEST LOCATIONS TO SEE SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS FROM THE RE-FIRING OF
THE LINE. DID GO AHEAD AND THROW IN VCTS AT MGM AS GIVEN THE
PROXIMITY OF THE FRONT AT 18Z AS WELL. EXPECT ADJUSTMENTS TO
RAINFALL TIMING.

16


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 324 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014/

WE WILL BE WATCHING AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT OVERNIGHT AS IT
MOVES SOUTHWARD FROM THE OHIO VALLEY REGION THAT WILL PUT AN END
TO THE HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS WE ARE CURRENTLY OBSERVING.
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT IS RESPONSIBLE FOR HIGHER
DEWPOINTS THIS AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH WE ARE SEEING SOME SLIGHTLY
DRIER AIR MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE. AS THE FRONT APPROACHES
OVERNIGHT...DEWPOINTS WILL INCREASE INTO AT LEAST THE MID 70S FOR
MOST AREAS WITH LIGHT SOUTHWEST WINDS. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO RATHER
WARM OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S AS WELL.

FRONTS RARELY PASS THROUGH OUR AREA WITHOUT RAINFALL DURING THE
SUMMER...BUT MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE LIMITED QPF FOR MONDAY
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTH. EVEN THOUGH MODELS ARE SHOWING RATHER
SKIMPY RAIN CHANCES...IT SEEMS SOMEWHAT HARD TO BELIEVE WITH PWAT
VALUES OF 2.0-2.1 INCHES IN A NARROW ZONE IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF THE
FRONT. WILL KEEP 20-30 POPS ACROSS THE NORTH THROUGH 12Z MONDAY IN
CASE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT OCCURS. CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST
AFTER DAYBREAK MONDAY REMAINS LOW...BUT THE BULK OF THE
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN THIRD
OF THE CWA AFTER 15Z MONDAY. STORM INTENSITY IS QUESTIONABLE...BUT
500MB WINDS OF 25-30 KTS MAY SUPPORT AT LEAST SOME ORGANIZATION
OR GROWTH INTO LINE SEGMENTS WITH ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS.

THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CLEAR THROUGH THE CWA WITH COOLER AND
DRIER CONDITIONS FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS AN UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH REMAINS PARKED OVER THE EASTERN PART OF THE COUNTRY. RECORD
LOWS ARE LIKELY ON WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. THE
BOUNDARY LAYER WILL TAKE SEVERAL DAYS TO MOISTEN BEHIND THE FRONT
AND RAIN CHANCES MAY NOT RETURN UNTIL FRIDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL AS THE AREA REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE
OF THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH THROUGH DAY 7. EVENTUALLY HIGHER RAIN
CHANCES MAY ENTER INTO THE PICTURE FOR THE WEEKEND.

87/GRANTHAM

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     73  88  62  83  57 /  40  20   0   0   0
ANNISTON    75  89  64  84  59 /  20  20   0   0   0
BIRMINGHAM  77  89  64  84  60 /  20  20   0   0   0
TUSCALOOSA  77  91  65  85  61 /  20  20   0   0   0
CALERA      76  90  65  85  61 /  10  30   0   0   0
AUBURN      74  91  67  86  61 /  10  40  10   0   0
MONTGOMERY  77  93  67  88  63 /  10  50  10   0   0
TROY        76  94  66  88  61 /  10  60  20   0   0

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$







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