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Area Forecast Discussion

917
FXUS64 KBMX 200445
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1045 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

.DISCUSSION...

WELL...WE FINALLY OVERCAME THE DRY AIR THAT WAS IN PLACE THIS
MORNING. VIRGA...IN THE FORM OF SNOW...MOISTENED THE LAYER OVER
CENTRAL ALABAMA AND LIGHT RAIN HAS BECOME WIDESPREAD. MOST
LOCATIONS HAVE HAD MEASURABLE RAIN THIS EVENING WITH AMOUNTS
GENERALLY A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS. A FEW SPOTS SOUTH MAY END
UP WITH AROUND A QUARTER INCH BEFORE IT ENDS EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING.

THE MAIN AREA OF UPWARD MOTION AND DEEPEST MOISTURE PUSH SOUTH AND EAST RATHER
QUICKLY OVERNIGHT. THEREFORE...KEPT THE TREND OF DECREASING RAIN CHANCES
FROM THE NORTHWEST AFTER MIDNIGHT AND MAINLY ENDING SOUTHEAST SATURDAY
MORNING.

A FEW LOCATIONS IN THE NORTHWEST ARE ALREADY INTO THE 30S THIS
EVENING...WITH LOWS 33 TO 35 DEGREES IN A FEW SPOTS. TEMPERATURES
ALOFT A COLD ENOUGH TO PRODUCE SNOW WITH DUAL POL RADAR DATA
INDICATING WET SNOW AS LOW AS 5-6K FT. RELATIVELY WARM AIR RESIDES
BELOW THIS LEVEL AND WET BULB VALUES NEVER GO BELOW 32 DEGREES.
THEREFORE...WILL KEEP MENTION OF ALL RAIN UNTIL IT ENDS.
ADDITIONALLY...NO REAL COLD LOW LEVEL AIR WILL ADVECT INTO CENTRAL
ALABAMA AT ALL. ALTHOUGH SOME PATCHY FOG MAY BE AROUND THE
AREA...BELIEVE THE CLOUDS AND NEAR STEADY TEMPS WILL PREVENT
ANYTHING TOO RESTRICTIVE OR WIDESPREAD.

UPDATED THE HOURLY TRENDS...POPS...AND WEATHER TIMING BUT THE
TREND REMAINS IN INTACT. UPDATES ALREADY OUT.

75

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION.

RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA THROUGH THE EVENING...
ALTHOUGH I SUSPECT THAT THE RADAR PRESENTATION LOOKS A BIT WORSE
THAN THE CONDITIONS ON THE GROUND ACTUALLY ARE. BEST CHANCES OF
SEEING SIGNIFICANT LOWERING OF CEILINGS OR VISIBILITIES WILL BE AT
MGM AND TOI. THE MORE NORTHERN SITES (NAMELY BHM...EET...ANB...
ASN) MAY NOT ACTUALLY STRAY FROM VFR CONDITIONS. TOUGH CALL THERE.
MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT CONDITIONS SHOULD RAPIDLY
IMPROVE ONCE THE RAIN MOVES OUT EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.

/61/


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 241 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014/

SHORTWAVE WILL PASS THE DEEP SOUTH THIS EVENING WITH WEAK SURFACE
LOW IN THE GULF. CURRENT RADAR SHOWING VERY LIGHT RAINFALL ACROSS
MISSISSIPPI AND WESTERN ALABAMA. NOT TOO SURE THE PRECIP ACROSS
THE NORTHERN TIER OF MISSISSIPPI WILL MEASURE WHEN IT MOVES INTO
NORTHWEST ALABAMA...SO I HAVE LOWERED THE POPS A LITTLE ACROSS OUR
NORTHERN COUNTIES. RAINFALL AMOUNTS ACROSS THE NORTH MAY ONLY BE
AROUND 0.01 TO 0.03. SOME SLIGHTLY HIGHER TOTALS IN THE SOUTH BUT
STILL DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE MUCH...MAYBE A QUARTER INCH IN A FEW
SPOTS. THIS SYSTEM WILL EXIT THE AREA TOMORROW MORNING.

ANOTHER WAVE APPROACHES THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING.
THIS ISENTROPIC LIFT DEVELOPS AHEAD OF A DEEP TROUGH THAT WILL SET
UP OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS. MONDAY LOOKS CLOUDY WITH SOME PATCHY
LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE POSSIBLE ON AND OFF THROUGH THE DAY. THE
MORE SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL POTENTIAL DOES NOT ARRIVE UNTIL TUESDAY
AS THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH AXIS SWINGS THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.

IT IS AN INTERESTING SYSTEM MID WEEK AS THE UPPER SYSTEM IS RATHER
DEEP AND COLD WITH SOME POTENTIAL FOR SNOW DOWN INTO THE UPPER MID
LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE AS THE UPPER LOW PIVOTS THROUGH THE MID
WEST AND UPPER TENNESSEE VALLEY. SURFACE WINDS AT OUR LOCATIONS
REMAIN WESTERLY (OR VERY BRIEFLY NORTHWESTERLY) EVEN AS THE FRONT
PASSES THROUGH WITH 1000-850 THICKNESS REMAINING TOO WARM FOR
WINTRY WEATHER. SO ANY WRAP AROUND PRECIP FROM THE UPPER LOW
SHOULD REMAIN RAIN. THE NEAR SURFACE COLD ADVECTION WITH THIS
SYSTEM IS PRETTY LIMITED AND SURFACE WINDS TURN TO THE SOUTHWEST
BY CHRISTMAS...SO NOT EXPECTING MUCH OF A COOL DOWN TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY BEHIND THE FRONT OTHER THAN JUST BEING CLOUDY AND
RAINY.

TEMPERATURES ON CHRISTMAS SHOULD BE RIGHT AROUND AVERAGE WITH
SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPS ON FRIDAY. ANOTHER FRONT WILL
APPROACH THE AREA BY FRIDAY EVENING AND SATURDAY.

88

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     36  53  35  53  43 /  90  20  10  10  40
ANNISTON    39  55  40  55  45 / 100  20  10  10  50
BIRMINGHAM  40  55  41  57  46 / 100  20  10  10  40
TUSCALOOSA  41  56  39  57  46 /  90  20  10  10  30
CALERA      41  55  41  56  46 / 100  20  10  10  40
AUBURN      41  55  43  55  48 / 100  50  10  30  60
MONTGOMERY  43  57  44  58  48 / 100  40  10  30  50
TROY        44  56  45  57  49 / 100  70  20  40  50

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$







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