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Area Forecast Discussion

791
FXUS64 KBMX 181138
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
638 AM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 12Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

A RATHER DREARY DAY IS SHAPING UP FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA
ESPECIALLY EAST OF INTERSTATE 59 AS A LARGE RAIN SHIELD SPREADS
NORTHWARD FROM THE GULF. SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS IN THE NORTHERN GULF
HAS OCCURRED IN RESPONSE TO A DIGGING AND DEEPENING TROUGH OVER
THE REGION. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT HAS TIGHTENED AS A SURFACE RIDGE
AXIS OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES NOSED ITS WAY INTO GEORGIA...
CREATING A COOL WEDGE. THIS WEDGE WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM
RISING MUCH TODAY IN THE PRESENCE OF WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND RAIN.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN STEADY IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S ACROSS
THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA...WHICH IS ABOUT 20 DEGREES BELOW
AVERAGE. THE RAIN SHIELD WILL BE A BIT SLOW TO MOVE OUT OF OUR
EASTERN AREAS AS A TROWAL DEVELOPS AROUND A CLOSED UPPER. TOTAL
RAINFALL SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 85 COULD REACH 2-3 INCHES...BUT THE
RAINFALL RATES SHOULD NOT BE HIGH ENOUGH TO PRODUCE FLASH
FLOODING. ANY LEFTOVER LIGHT RAIN WILL LIKELY COME TO AN END
NEAR THE AL/GA STATE LINE BY LATE SATURDAY MORNING.

DRIER AND WARMER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON
ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM
THE MID 60S EAST TO MID 70S WEST. WARMER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
INTO SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS WE AWAIT THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM ON LATE
MONDAY. THAT SYSTEM WILL NOT BE AS DYNAMIC AS THE ONE WE ARE
CURRENTLY DEALING WITH...BUT THE ASSOCIATED WEAK COLD FRONT SHOULD
TRIGGER SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL LEAD TO DRIER CONDITIONS FOR WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY.

87/GRANTHAM


&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF DISCUSSION.

WITH RAIN AND CLOUDS COVERING UP A GOOD CHUNK OF THE AREA...WENT A
VERY PESSIMISTIC FORECAST FOR THIS SET OF TAFS. THE LOW IFR DECK
HAS MOVED INTO TOI AND MGM AND WILL SLOWLY MOVE NORTHWARD
THROUGHOUT THE MORNING. EXPECT THE CIGS TO LIFT A TAD AND BE
GENERALLY LOW END MVFR BY 14 TO 15Z. WENT WITH PERSISTENT RAIN AND
LOW CLOUDS FOR MGM AND TOI THROUGH THE PERIOD...BUT STARTED
CLEARING OUT THE NORTHERN 4 BY 3 TO 6Z AS THE TROUGH PUSHED
EASTWARD THROUGH THE STATE.

NOTE...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILL BE ISSUING SEASONAL
TERMINAL FORECASTS FOR THE TALLADEGA MUNICIPAL AIRPORT (KASN) IN
TALLADEGA...ALABAMA. THE FORECASTS WILL BE ISSUED FROM APRIL 20TH
00Z THROUGH AT LEAST MAY 8TH 00Z. DUE TO THE LIMITED AVAILABILITY
OF OBSERVATIONS...KASN TAF WILL HAVE AMD NOT SKED APPENDED TO THE
END OF THE FORECAST.

16

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     57  50  71  49  76 / 100  50  10   0   0
ANNISTON    56  50  69  50  76 / 100  60  20   0   0
BIRMINGHAM  58  50  73  50  77 /  90  40  10   0   0
TUSCALOOSA  62  50  76  50  79 /  70  20  10   0   0
CALERA      57  51  73  51  77 / 100  40  10   0   0
AUBURN      54  48  65  50  73 / 100  80  20  10   0
MONTGOMERY  57  50  70  51  77 / 100  60  10   0   0
TROY        56  49  67  50  75 / 100  60  20   0   0

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$







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