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Area Forecast Discussion

724
FXUS64 KBMX 271950
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
250 PM CDT MON APR 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...

A CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER TEXAS WILL MOVE EASTWARD TONIGHT AND
BECOME AN OPEN WAVE BY LATE TUESDAY AS IT INTERACTS WITH THE
WESTERN EDGE OF TROUGHS TO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF OUR AREA.
THIS TYPE OF SUPPRESSED PATTERN IS NOT TYPICAL FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR...BUT NEVERTHELESS...A SURFACE LOW IN THE NORTHERN GULF WILL
STRENGTHEN AND MOVE INLAND TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY ACROSS
SOUTH GEORGIA AND THE CAROLINAS. A RAIN SHIELD IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP TO OUR WEST TONIGHT AND MOVE INTO THE FORECAST AREA
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS ISENTROPIC LIFT AND UPPER-LEVEL FORCING
INCREASES. COASTAL CONVECTION MAY LIMIT RAINFALL AMOUNTS ACROSS
OUR AREA...BUT WE STILL EXPECT AT LEAST LIGHT TO MODERATE
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL TO OCCUR TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.
A BIT OF A TROWAL/DEFORMATION BAND IS LIKELY TO DEVELOP TUESDAY
NIGHT AS THE SYSTEM STRENGTHENS...AND THIS WOULD CAUSE WRAP-AROUND
RAIN TO LINGER ACROSS THE NORTH AND EAST INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.
AN UPPER TROUGH TAKING AN UNUSUAL STRAIGHT SOUTHWARD TRAJECTORY
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY WILL COMBINE WITH THIS
SYSTEM AND COULD CAUSE ADDITIONAL SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH AND
EAST ON THURSDAY AS A STRONG VORT MAX ROTATES THROUGH.

NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL RESULT IN DRY AND COOL/MILD CONDITIONS
MOVING INTO THE REGION FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. DRY CONDITIONS
SHOULD CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY AS WELL.

87/GRANTHAM

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

WIDE CIRRUS SHIELD ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA TODAY STEMMING FROM
STORM SYSTEM CURRENTLY ACROSS THE LOUISIANA COAST ON INTO THE
FLORIDA PANHANDLE. LOWER CLOUDS ARE SLOW TO SPREAD NORTHWARD
TOWARD THE TERMINALS IN CENTRAL ALABAMA. ALTHOUGH LOW CHANCES WILL
BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TAFS...IE MGM/TOI THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING WILL LEAVE OUT OF TAF FOR NOW AS WE NEED TO MOISTEN UP
BEFORE RAIN CAN PRECIPITATE TO GROUND. HAVE ADDED IN -RA AFTER 10Z
FOR MGM/TOI BUT WILL LIKELY TAKE LONGER FOR MORE NORTHERN TAFS TO
HAVE ANYTHING BUT VIRGA UNTIL TUESDAY AFTERNOON SO LEFT OUT OF
REMAINDER FOR NOW.

08/MK

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     51  67  52  59  48 /  10  60  90  60  20
ANNISTON    52  67  53  60  48 /  10  60  90  60  20
BIRMINGHAM  54  67  54  61  49 /  20  70  90  60  10
TUSCALOOSA  55  68  55  64  50 /  30  80  70  50  10
CALERA      55  67  55  62  49 /  20  70  80  50  10
AUBURN      55  67  55  63  50 /  30  70  90  60  20
MONTGOMERY  57  71  58  66  50 /  40  80  60  50  10
TROY        58  71  60  67  51 /  50  80  60  50  10

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

87/08



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