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Area Forecast Discussion

460
FXUS64 KBMX 260937
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
337 AM CST MON JAN 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

THE COLD CORE UPPER LOW THAT PRODUCED THE SEVERE STORMS ON SUNDAY
HAS PUSHED INTO GEORGIA. A LARGE AREA OF WRAP-AROUND CLOUDS ON THE
BACK SIDE OF THE UPPER LOW WILL BRING CLOUDY CONDITIONS TO CENTRAL
ALABAMA THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON. THIS SYSTEM IS PULLING OFF
QUICKLY TO THE NORTHEAST AND THE CLOUDS WILL LIKELY BEGIN TO CLEAR
FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE AFTERNOON. DESPITE THE RETURN OF
SUNSHINE...STRONG LOW LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL KEEP HIGHS
MOSTLY IN THE 40S TODAY. A WEAK SURFACE LOW WILL TRACK SOUTHEAST
AND ACROSS TENNESSEE LATE TONIGHT. SOME OF THE MODELS SHOW SOME
LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF THE SURFACE LOW.
SURFACE TEMPERATURES EARLY TUESDAY WILL BE NEAR FREEZING ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST COUNTIES OF CENTRAL ALABAMA...AND THIS AREA WILL NEED TO
BE MONITORED. FOR NOW THE CHANCES FOR ANY MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION
IS TOO LOW FOR INCLUSION IN FORECAST. THE COMBINATION OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE AND COLD AIR ADVECTION ON TUESDAY WILL LIKELY PRODUCE
MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS...BUT SOME DRYING IN THE AFTERNOON SHOULD
HELP DISSIPATE SOME OF THE CLOUDS. A SURFACE HIGH WILL BUILD INTO
THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY AND WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE.
RISING UPPER HEIGHTS ON WEDNESDAY WILL ALSO BRING WARMER
TEMPERATURES TO THE AREA.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

ANOTHER CLIPPER TYPE SURFACE LOW WILL TRACK TO THE NORTH OF ALABAMA
ON THURSDAY. INCREASING LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE
FRONT COULD TRIGGER A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS NORTH ALABAMA THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA THURSDAY
NIGHT...DESPITE LIMITED MOISTURE...FORCING SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT
TO OVERCOME LACK OF DEEPER MOISTURE...AND INCLUDED A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS FOR MOST OF THE AREA. AS WITH PREVIOUS SYSTEMS...IT WILL BE
MOVING QUICKLY EASTWARD AND RAIN SHOULD BE OUT OF THE AREA BEFORE
MIDNIGHT THURSDAY NIGHT. FRIDAY AND SATURDAY SHOULD BE DRY DAYS AS
A SURFACE HIGH BUILDS INTO ALABAMA AND UPPER HEIGHTS RISE DUE TO
CUT-OFF LOW DEVELOPING OVER THE NORTHERN MEXICO. A NORTHERN STREAM
SHORT WAVE TROF WILL PICK UP THE MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTHWEST
SYSTEM AND RAIN WILL SPREAD EASTWARD INTO ALABAMA SATURDAY NIGHT
AND SUNDAY.

58/ROSE

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF DISCUSSION.

STORMS HAVE ENDED TONIGHT...AND OTHER THAN A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS
POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT...NO ADDITIONAL RAINFALL IS EXPECTED. WINDS WILL
CONTINUE TO TURN TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST AND SPEEDS WILL INCREASE
WITH GUSTS UP TO 18-19KTS. LOW CLOUD DECK IS SPREADING SOUTHWARD
WITH MVFR CIGS...AND IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT ALL TERMINALS WITHIN THE
NEXT FEW HOURS FOR NORTHERN TERMINALS...AND JUST BEFORE SUNRISE FOR
TOI AND MGM. SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO CLEAR MONDAY AFTERNOON AS WINDS
DIMINISH.

14


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     43  32  49  29  51 /  10   0  10   0   0
ANNISTON    45  32  52  30  53 /  10   0  10   0   0
BIRMINGHAM  45  34  53  32  54 /  10   0   0   0   0
TUSCALOOSA  48  35  56  34  56 /  10   0   0   0   0
CALERA      46  35  55  33  55 /  10   0   0   0   0
AUBURN      48  34  53  33  55 /  10   0   0   0   0
MONTGOMERY  51  35  60  34  57 /   0   0   0   0   0
TROY        51  35  59  35  57 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$







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