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Area Forecast Discussion

964
FXUS64 KBMX 040921
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
421 AM CDT WED MAY 4 2016

.SHORT TERM...

OVERNIGHT SATELLITE AND OBS SHOW MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT
WINDS ACROSS THE CWA. A FEW CLOUDS CAN BE NOTED IN THE
SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES AT THE VAIDEN FIELD AND CRAIG FIELD
AIRPORTS. WITH THE BARELY DISTINGUISHABLE COLD FRONT FAR DOWN IN
THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE, CALM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE
MORNING WITH MODEST TEMPS IN THE UPPER 50S. LATER IN THE AFTERNOON
A SLIGHT BURST OF UPPER JET ENERGY WILL INSTIGATE A SHORT WAVE
TROUGH TO ROUND THE CURRENT EAST CONUS LONGWAVE AND SWEEP THROUGH
THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AND BRING A FEW BRIEF SHOWERS INTO THE REGION
DURING THE EVENING HOURS AROUND 4-6PM. ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDER WAS ADDED PRIMARILY FOR THE NORTHERN COUNTIES AS SBCAPE
AND LAPSE RATES BOTH SUPPORT SOME VERY BRIEF ISOLATED STORMS,
HOWEVER CONVECTION IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE DEEP AS DRY AIR IN THE
UPPER LEVELS IS FAIRLY DOMINATE. SURFACE TEMPS ARE ONLY EXPECTED
TO REACH LOW 70S AT THE HIGHEST DUE TO THE RAIN AND SOME
PERSISTENT MIDDAY CLOUD COVER. WITH THE PASSAGE OF THIS TROUGH SKY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE CALM FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT AND
TEMPS WILL REST AROUND UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S...


92

.LONG TERM...
THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

AS WE WORK INTO THURSDAY CENTRAL ALABAMA WILL BE ON THE HIGH
PRESSURE SECTION OF THE OMEGA BLOCK THAT WILL BE ACROSS THE CONUS.
THIS BLOCK WILL KEEP CENTRAL ALABAMA GENERALLY RAIN FREE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AND INTO THE FIRST OF NEXT WEEK. THE NORTHEASTERN PORTION OF
THE AREA WILL FLIRT WITH CLOUD COVER AND AN ISOLATED SHOWER OVER THE
WEEKEND AS SEVERAL SHORTWAVES WILL SLIDE ALONG THE WESTERN EDGE OF
THE TROUGH OVER THE EAST. AGAIN EXPECTING THE AREA TO REMAIN DRY BUT
THERE IS A SLIM CHANCE AT AN ISOLATED SHOWER ESPECIALLY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING. NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO INCLUDE IN THE
FORECAST AT THIS TIME BUT WILL MONITOR THE TRENDS. WE WILL SEE A
GRADUAL WARMING THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE OMEGA BLOCK WILL BEGIN TO
WEAKEN BY MONDAY AND FAIRLY STRONG SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE PLAINS
BY TUESDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL HELP INCREASE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW INTO
THE AREA AND INCREASE RAIN CHANCES TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND WEDNESDAY.

16

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF DISCUSSION.

ALL TERMINAL CIGS ARE AT VFR...WITH ONLY MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS
MOVING ACROSS THE AREA. SEEING NO EVIDENCE OF A LOWER CLOUD DECK
DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT AND WILL KEEP CIGS AT VFR. NORTHWEST WINDS
SHOULD REMAIN LIGHT...PREVENTING WIDESPREAD FOG DEVELOPMENT WHERE
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS ELEVATED...PRIMARILY NEAR MGM AND TOI.

NORTHWESTERLY WINDS INCREASE WEDNESDAY MORNING...AND BECOME GUSTY
DURING THE AFTERNOON. EXPECT A CU FIELD TO DEVELOP WITH CIGS AT VFR.
LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD...5FKT CIGS WILL APPROACH NORTHERN
TERMINALS AFTER 05/00Z WITH SCT SHOWERS POSSIBLE.

14


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

MUCH COOLER AND OVERALL DRIER CONDITIONS THROUGH FRIDAY. ALTHOUGH A
SHORT WAVE DISTURBANCE WILL SLIDE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING AND
PROVIDE A BRIEF 3 TO 6 HOUR WINDOW FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS
MAINLY NORTH OF I-85. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY AT TIMES THIS AFTERNOON AS
WELL. WARMING TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND AS AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS
OVER THE AREA. NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS AT THIS TIME.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     72  46  66  45  73 /  40  50  10   0   0
ANNISTON    72  49  66  46  73 /  30  40  10   0   0
BIRMINGHAM  73  50  69  48  74 /  20  40  10   0   0
TUSCALOOSA  75  50  71  48  75 /  20  20   0   0   0
CALERA      73  51  69  49  74 /  20  30   0   0   0
AUBURN      73  52  67  49  74 /  10  20   0   0   0
MONTGOMERY  76  54  73  49  76 /  10  10   0   0   0
TROY        75  53  71  48  75 /  10  10   0   0   0

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$



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