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Area Forecast Discussion

200
FXUS64 KBMX 010353 AAA
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1053 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.UPDATE...
EVENING UPDATE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE ACROSS NORTH ALABAMA
TONIGHT...STRETCHING ALONG A LINE FROM NEAR ATLANTA TO NEAR
MEMPHIS. WHILE THE INDIVIDUAL STORM MOVEMENT ALONG THIS LINE IS
TO THE SOUTHEAST...THERE IS A GRADUAL SHIFT SOUTHWARD OF THE
OVERALL LINE INTO NORTH CENTRAL ALABAMA. THE AIRMASS WILL
GRADUALLY STABLIZE TONIGHT AND A WIDESPREAD SEVERE THREAT IS NOT
EXPECTED. HOWEVER...AN ISOLATED SEVERE STORM COULD BE POSSIBLE AND
WARRANT ADDITIONAL WARNINGS. GUSTY WINDS AND LARGE HAIL WILL
CONTINUE TO BE THE MAIN THREATS.

HAVE INCREASED POPS ACROSS THE NORTH FOR THE NEXT 6 HOURS...AS
ACTIVITY MOVES SOUTHWARD. THERE ARE ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS
DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THIS LINE...BUT GENERALLY EXPECT ACTIVITY TO
REACH BHM AROUND MIDNIGHT...AND TCL BY 2-3AM. LOOKING AT CURRENT
RADAR TRENDS...ACTIVITY WOULD NOT REACH ANB UNTIL AFTER 3AM...IF
IT DOES AT ALL. NEAR TERM MODEL GUIDANCE DOES SHOW A GRADUAL
WEAKENING AND THEN DIMINISHING TREND LATE TONIGHT...AND HAVE
SCALED BACK COVERAGE AFTER 4AM TO CHANCE ACROSS THE NORTH. FURTHER
SOUTH...AN ISOLATED SHOWER IS POSSIBLE...BUT EXPECT MOST LOCATIONS
TO BE DRY.

14

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION.

SCATTERED TS MOVING ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL ALABAMA THIS EVENING ARE
PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS. A GRADUAL DECREASE IN ACTIVITY
IS EXPECTED BY 03Z. HAVE INCLUDED TS IN PREVAILING WHERE
APPLICABLE...AND WILL UPDATE AS NEEDED. TS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
NORTH OF MGM AND TOI. FOG AND LOW CLOUDS ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT
BRINGING CONDITIONS DOWN TO MVFR OR POTENTIALLY LOWER AT SITES WHICH
RECEIVED RAINFALL THIS EVENING. CONDITIONS IMPROVE THROUGH THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

14


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 643 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015/

QUITE AN ACTIVE AFTERNOON OUT THERE AS THE MAIN WARM FRONT HAS
LIFTED WELL NORTH OF THE AREA...WITH A FEW FAIRLY DISTINCTIVE
BOUNDARIES SLIDING THROUGHOUT THE AREA. MAIN FOCUS WITH THE
FORECAST REMAINS SEVERE WEATHER AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SEVERE
STORMS. CURRENT SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL
10 PM.

ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE WATCH...STORMS MAY BECOME
SOMEWHAT ELEVATED AS BOUNDARY LAYER INHIBITION INCREASES AS
NOCTURNAL COOLING ENSUES. THIS WILL RESULT IN A DIMINISHING WIND
THREAT BUT...STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES AND SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY
WILL ALLOW FOR A CONTINUED HAIL THREAT THROUGH ABOUT 02Z-03Z FROM
TCL AND BHM IN AL...EAST/SOUTHEAST TOWARD FFC AND MCN IN GA.

OVERALL ACTIVE PATTERN REMAINS POSSIBLE THROUGH THE REST OF THE
WEEK WITH A CLEARING COLD FRONT ON FRIDAY..THAT MAY RESULT IN A
DRY WEEKEND. SEE PREVIOUS AFD FOR MORE INFORMATION ON THE EXTENDED
FORECAST.

16

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     54  76  56  77  58 /  70  20  30  50  30
ANNISTON    55  77  56  78  58 /  70  20  30  50  20
BIRMINGHAM  58  79  59  80  60 /  60  30  30  50  20
TUSCALOOSA  57  80  60  82  62 /  30  30  30  50  20
CALERA      59  79  59  80  60 /  40  30  30  50  20
AUBURN      60  79  57  79  58 /  20  30  30  30  10
MONTGOMERY  60  81  59  83  59 /  20  30  30  30  10
TROY        59  81  58  82  57 /  20  40  30  30  10

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$



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