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Area Forecast Discussion

506
FXUS64 KBMX 250905
AFDBMX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
405 AM CDT THU AUG 25 2016

.SHORT TERM...
Today and Tonight.

The models suite is in good agreement that the 597dam upper ridge
moves northeastward today and tonight and decreases slightly.
Therefore, the mid and upper flow will be east to northeast on the
southern periphery of this ridge. Feel that the NAM/WRF and Hi-Res
models best depict the subtle upward motion near a vorticity axis
west and north of the I-59 corridor. This is also where the best
precipitable water and mean moisture are co-located. Farther south,
the surface ridge located along the spine of the Appalachians will
bring a dry easterly near surface flow. Dew points will drop into
the 60s today and spread from east to west. This in itself will be a
boundary of sorts, but the overall column moisture drops low enough
that not much is anticipated south. Since the lift, upward motion,
proximity to ridge, poor mid level lapse rates, SBCape, and moisture
convergence are all rather limited, dropped pops to isolated north
and west with nothing mentioned elsewhere. There appears to be some
convergence or leftover boundary from near Birmingham to Montgomery,
so its no completely out of the question we may need to add a 10 pop
farther east, but coverage will be very low. Did not mention
anything into the evening hours. Easterly flow brings lower 850
temps and thicknesses, but highs should still manage the low to mid
90s with the warmest west and south. Heat indices will range from
near 100 along the I-65 corridor to and 100 to 105 near the
Mississippi state line. Due to coverage and duration of near 105
Heat Indices, will not issue an advisory at this time. Partly cloudy
to mostly clear overnight with lows near 70 east and 70 to 75
elsewhere.

75

.LONG TERM...
Friday through Wednesday.

The upper ridge will gradually migrate northeastward into the
Appalachians by Friday with weak sfc ridging still in place
across the forecast area. Weak shortwave energy combined with
higher moisture content across the northern counties will lead to
low rain chances Friday and Saturday in the north, with dry
conditions expected across at least the southern half of Central
Alabama. Models indicate a weak easterly wave moving into the
state on Sunday, therefore a few showers/storms will be possible,
mainly in the east. Temperatures will be a couple degrees above
normal with highs generally in the low/mid 90s. With the easterly
flow and slightly lower dew points across the southern portions of
the area, heat indices should remain below heat advisory criteria.

Not much change in the extended forecast for early next week as
there is still a lot of uncertainty with the potential tropical
system development and track. Since the system hasn`t actually
developed yet, models are still having a difficult time with the
potential intensity/landfall. The strength and placement of the
upper ridge will be a major determining factor in the track of the
system, but at this time, there is a decent possibility that the
system could enter the eastern Gulf of Mexico. Needless to say,
all eyes will be on the tropics over the next few days. As always,
for the latest tropical information, please visit the National
Hurricane Center website at www.nhc.noaa.gov.

19

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF Discussion.

BMX radar is clear and should remain so for the remainder of
tonight. Some on/off shallow river fog persist at TCL and may
linger for a few hours. Otherwise, we are looking at VFR
conditions with mainly light and variable winds and only low pops
for Thursday thanks to ridging. So, no mention of showers or
thunderstorms for Thursday.

08

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

A prolonged period of generally dry conditions will continue thru the
weekend, with only low rain chances at times. Temps will remain
slightly above normal thru Sunday. Critical fire weather
conditions are not expected.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden     93  71  93  71  93 /  20  10  20  10  10
Anniston    93  71  92  71  92 /  10  10  10  10  10
Birmingham  94  74  93  73  94 /  10  10  20  10  10
Tuscaloosa  95  74  94  73  96 /  20  10  20  10  10
Calera      93  73  93  72  94 /  10  10  10  10  10
Auburn      92  71  93  72  93 /  10  10  10  10  10
Montgomery  95  73  96  72  96 /  10  10  10  10  10
Troy        93  71  93  71  94 /  10  10  10  10  10

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$



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