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Area Forecast Discussion

700
FXUS64 KBMX 281002
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
402 AM CST FRI NOV 28 2014

.DISCUSSION...

STARTING THE DAY OFF RATHER COLD WITH TEMPS FALLING INTO THE
MID/UPPER 20S BY SUNRISE AS THE CENTER OF THE SFC RIDGE CURRENTLY SITS
OVER THE TN VALLEY. THE RIDGE WILL SLIDE EASTWARD TODAY WITH
SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNING TONIGHT. A WARMUP WITH ENSUE AS MOISTURE
LEVELS AND THICKNESS VALUES INCREASE. LOOK FOR HIGHS IN THE 60S TO
LOW 70S BY SUNDAY. MODELS SHOW SOME FAIRLY IMPRESSIVE ISENTROPIC
LIFT DEVELOPING SAT AND SUN. THIS COMBINED WITH THE INCREASED LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE WILL LEAD TO LOW STRATUS SPREADING NNE ACROSS MUCH
OF THE FORECAST AREA BOTH SAT AND SUN NIGHTS. OVERCAST SKIES AND
HIGHER DEW POINTS WILL KEEP LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 40S AND 50S BOTH
NIGHTS. BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS APPEAR TO BE TOO HIGH FOR FOG
FORMATION.

AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA AND
THE MIDWEST WILL PUSH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SOUTH TOWARD THE TN
VALLEY MONDAY. WITH NEARLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT THE FRONT SLOWS AND
APPEARS TO STALL OR MEANDER OVER NORTH/CENTRAL ALABAMA THRU
WEDNESDAY. HAVE MAINTAINED 20-30 POPS FOR AT LEAST THE
NORTHWESTERN HALF OF THE CWA DURING THIS PERIOD. TEMPS IN THE
EXTENDED WILL BE NEAR NORMAL.

19

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF DISCUSSION.

VFR CONDS THRU THE PERIOD. SFC HIGH CENTER WILL BUILD INTO THE
AREA PRODUCING LIGHT WINDS.

58/ROSE


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     51  30  60  47  66 /   0   0   0   0   0
ANNISTON    52  30  61  47  67 /   0   0   0   0   0
BIRMINGHAM  53  36  62  51  67 /   0   0   0   0   0
TUSCALOOSA  55  36  65  52  71 /   0   0   0   0   0
CALERA      54  36  63  50  68 /   0   0   0   0   0
AUBURN      53  33  61  46  67 /   0   0   0   0   0
MONTGOMERY  56  32  66  48  71 /   0   0   0   0   0
TROY        55  30  65  47  71 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$







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