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Area Forecast Discussion

508
FXUS64 KBMX 270859
AFDBMX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
359 AM CDT MON JUN 27 2016

.SHORT TERM...
Today and tonight.

Water Vapor imagery shows a trough/low pressure center over Ontario
with an impulse moving into North Dakota. This impulse will merge
into the base of the trough and result in the trough digging
southward across the Great Lakes region. A surface cool front,
currently stretching from Indiana back into Kansas/Oklahoma, will
in turn be pushed southward toward the Tennessee Valley later
today. Rain chances will increase thru the day as the front
approaches. Although scattered convection is possible area wide,
more numerous showers/storms are likely across the northern
counties closer to the front. The majority of the activity should
dissipate before midnight, but will carry some 20 PoPs thru the
overnight hours as a few showers/storms could linger later,
especially with the front in the area.

There really isn`t any upper air support with this frontal system,
so organized convection, and therefore any widespread severe
weather, is not anticipated. However, the atmospheric conditions
will remain very similar to the past couple of days...high PWs,
steep low-level lapse rates and sufficient instability. So, some
strong storms will be possible, primarily during the peak heating of
the day and into the early evening. Here again, the main threat
would be localized strong/damaging wind gusts. With PWATs forecast
to be near 2.0 inches, storms will be capable of very heavy
downpours. While most locations can handle quite a bit of rain (due
to the prolonged dry period), any training of storms over the same
area(s) could lead to some localized minor flooding issues.

Temperatures today will generally be a couple degrees cooler than
yesterday. However, due to dew points still in the low 70s, heat
indices could rise to or just above 100 degrees in a few locations
this afternoon. As of now, it looks like they should stay below heat
advisory criteria of 105 degrees.

19

.LONG TERM...
Tuesday through Sunday.

The surface frontal system is expected to move across portions of
Central Alabama on Tuesday with increased rain chances during the
day. This should, except for the far southern counties, keep our
highs out of the 90s. With precipitation possible earlier in the
day, that will likely affect our instability potential for most.
We will have forcing from the front though, and could have a few
strong storms. However, we should be removed from the main energy
with this system. Some guidance is trying to bring the front
through the CWA. However, the upper flow suggests that it could
likely stall out across the southern half of Central Alabama as
the main upper low opens up over the Northeast U.S. and Eastern
Canada, with a broad trough lingering across the eastern part of
CONUS. Low pops across the southern half of the area will remain
for Wednesday due to a possible lingering boundary. The stalled
boundary could have some minor movement on Thursday, with only low
rain chances south. By Friday, rain chances will begin to move
back northward across more of the CWA as the boundary is expected
to push back northward. Another surface front is forecasted to
move southward toward Alabama and increase rain chances as we move
into next weekend.

08

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF Discussion.

Outside of thunderstorm activity, generally kept the terminal
forecast VFR another period. TOI was already reporting some light
BR and installed prevailing MVFR vis due to the rain they received
earlier today. They may be some localized instances of additional
BR development and will update because it will be sporadic.
Otherwise, persistence dominates again. Mid and upper level blow
off cloudiness was slowly moving over central Alabama and
will only slowly disperse overnight. Some patchy sporadic clouds
between 6-8k ft will also be around.

Monday, a cold front will approach northern Alabama by late
afternoon. The dissipating front over the area today should still
be meandering around, therefore, showers and thunderstorms are a
good bet. Went ahead and mentioned VCTS in the afternoon at all
locations but certainly time will need to be adjusted for tempo of
prevailing mention. The convective activity on Monday has a much
better chance of lasting into the overnight hours and a surface
focus will be near.

Winds will be light and variable much of the period, trending
toward northerly into Monday evening. Some stronger localized
wind gusts are possible near any thunderstorms Monday afternoon
and Monday evening.

75

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Fairly typical summer weather expected today with hotter than
normal temperatures. Rain chances will increase today into
Tuesday as a front moves southward across the forecast area. Some
isolated to scattered rain activity will remain possible across
the southeast on Wednesday, with drier and less humid conditions
expected across the north. No fire weather concerns are expected
at this time.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden     91  71  88  67  90 /  60  40  40  20  10
Anniston    91  71  88  68  90 /  50  50  50  20  10
Birmingham  93  74  89  70  90 /  50  50  50  20  10
Tuscaloosa  94  73  89  70  92 /  50  50  60  20  10
Calera      93  73  89  70  90 /  50  50  60  20  10
Auburn      92  73  88  71  89 /  40  50  70  40  20
Montgomery  96  74  91  72  92 /  40  50  70  40  20
Troy        94  73  90  72  89 /  40  40  70  40  30

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

19/08/75



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