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Area Forecast Discussion

FXUS64 KBMX 301555

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
1055 AM CDT SAT JUL 30 2016

Morning Update.



Scattered showers and a couple thunderstorms are already
developing this morning across the northern counties, along and
south of an outflow boundary from convection yesterday evening
and early this morning. Rain chances were bumped up for the rest
of the day along this boundary. Scattered development will
continue the rest of the day across the area with PWATs in the 1.8
- 2 inch range and some glancing influence from a broad upper
trough over the Ohio Valley/Great Lakes. Overall risk of strong
storms/microbursts remains low given poor mid- level lapse rates
and only a couple pockets of drier air aloft. Temperatures have
also warmed up quickly across the southern counties, so high
temperatures there were adjusted upward. Heat index values will be
in the 100-105 range in the southern counties.



12Z TAF Discussion.

VFR cigs are expected through the next 24 hours. Scattered showers
and storms are expected during the afternoon and early evening
with VCTS indicated at all sites. Any impacts should be relatively
short-lived with easterly storm motions of 15-20 kts.




Generally scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected over
the next several days with highs in the upper 80s and low/mid 90s.
Surface winds will be less than 10 mph and generally from the
southwest/west through the weekend. Since surface dew points are
so high, critical fire weather thresholds are not expected to be
met, with no watches or warnings anticipated.


/Issued 358 AM CDT SAT JUL 30 2016/

The base of a broad upper trough is in place across the region
with weak cyclonic curvature at 500mb. Deep moisture and daytime
heating should lead to scattered showers and storms particularly
during the afternoon with highs in the 88-95F range. This activity
will gradually diminish during the evening hours.


Sunday through Saturday, the westerly flow aloft transitions to a
northerly flow. This shift is due to the mean trough moving to the
east coast and the ridge center building over the plains. Even with
the shift, the overall flow remains rather light and temperatures
aloft rather warm. A few short waves move through the flow but
these will provide only weak lift and the models are differing on
the exact timing. The surface ridge remains off to our east
providing a general southerly low level flow. Precipitable water
values remain 1.80 inches or higher much of the period with
surface dew points in the 70s. Therefore, kept the forecast trend
of near climatology pops going. There may be a period or two of
higher activity but this will be due to mesoscale or smaller
scales and will need to be ironed out as we go. High temperatures
in the mid 90s are supported by low level thickness and 850 temps
but there will be low level moisture and clouds. Bumped temps a
tad but generally low to mid 90s. This keeps the heat indices in
the 100 to 105 degree range. Model advertised thermodynamic
profiles do not indicate anything great for strong to severe
thunderstorms. Moisture content and relatively light winds through
the layer may allow a few heavy downpours but wind gust should be
below 40 mph, at least for now.



Gadsden     90  72  92  71  92 /  40  40  40  30  40
Anniston    91  73  93  72  93 /  50  40  40  30  40
Birmingham  91  76  93  74  93 /  50  40  40  30  40
Tuscaloosa  93  74  94  73  94 /  40  40  40  30  40
Calera      93  74  93  73  93 /  40  40  40  30  50
Auburn      94  74  93  74  93 /  40  40  40  30  50
Montgomery  97  75  95  74  94 /  40  40  40  40  50
Troy        95  73  92  72  92 /  40  40  40  40  50





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