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Area Forecast Discussion

419
FXUS64 KBMX 010812
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
312 AM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.DISCUSSION...

A PLEASANT SUMMER MORNING WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S AND 60S ACROSS
MUCH OF THE AREA. THE COLD FRONT LOOKS TO BE LOCATED JUST TO THE
NORTH OF THE I-85 CORRIDOR WITH DEWPOINTS STILL IN THE 70S AT
MONTGOMERY...TROY AND EUFAULA. CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RAP
UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATES A BROAD UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL
AND WESTERN CONUS WITH A TROUGH ACROSS THE NORTHEAST AND GREAT
LAKES. THIS UPPER AIR PATTERN PUTS CENTRAL ALABAMA UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. LAST NIGHTS 00Z BMX SOUNDING
INDICATED 0.67 INCHES OF PW...WHICH IS NEAR THE MINIMUM VALUE
OBSERVED FOR EARLY AUGUST. THIS DRY AIR HAS LED TO A DECREASE IN
RAIN CHANCES OVER THE WEEKEND. HOWEVER...FURTHER TO THE SOUTH NEAR
THE FRONT...EXPECT SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATER THIS
AFTERNOON WHERE PW VALUES WILL BE CLOSER TO THE 1.4-1.6 INCH RANGE.
THE FRONT MOVES SLOWLY TO THE SOUTH ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS IT GETS
A PUSH FROM A SHORTWAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED IN THE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW.
PW VALUES WILL REMAIN BELOW AN INCH FOR MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA
AND EXPECT SUNDAY WILL REMAIN DRY EXCEPT FOR THE FAR SOUTHEASTERN
COUNTIES. IT LOOKS AS THOUGH THE FRONT WILL MOVE FAR ENOUGH SOUTH ON
MONDAY FOR DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS ALL OF CENTRAL ALABAMA. HIGH
TEMPERATURES OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL BE IN
THE LOW TO MID 90S WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOW 70S.

IT IS STILL SUMMER IN ALABAMA...SO THE DRIER AIR WILL NOT LAST LONG.
LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY A SURFACE HIGH BECOMES ESTABLISHED
ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNING TO THE AREA.
DEWPOINTS WILL PUSH BACK UP INTO THE UPPER 60S AND 70S WITH CHANCES
FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND STORMS RETURNING TO THE FORECAST ON
WEDNESDAY. THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE BOTH IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
THE NEXT CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD RAINFALL. BOTH MODELS INDICATE A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE CENTERED ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. THIS TROUGH WILL MOVE
INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY ON THURSDAY BRINGING IN THE NEXT CHANCE
FOR WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS. SEVERAL OTHER WEAK DISTURBANCES
MOVE IN BEHIND THE MAIN WAVE WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES NEAR OR
ABOVE CLIMATOLOGICAL VALUES LATE NEXT WEEK.

05/MA

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF DISCUSSION.

VFR EXPECTED NEXT 24 HOURS FOR NORTHERN SITES...WITH NORTHEASTERLY
FLOW TO PREVAIL AT ALL LOCATIONS.

AS FOR TOI AND MGM...QS FRONT WILL REMAIN WAFFLING ALONG THE
INTERSTATE 85 CORRIDOR. SOME GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A SSWWD MOVING WAVE
TO BRING SHOWERS AS FAR NORTH AS MGM DURING THE DAY, WHILE OTHERS
DO NOT. FOR NOW...WILL KEEP ANY MENTION OF SIGNIFICANT CLOUDS TO
TOI...WHICH STILL ARE EXPECTED TO BE VFR. EXPECT SLIGHT MVFR IN
THE WARM SOUP SOUTH OF THE FRONT OVER TOI...AND AGAIN WILL HOLD
MVFR TO THE SOUTH OF MGM...BUT KEEP AN EYE OVERNIGHT IN CASE IT
MEANDERS NORTHWARD.

JD/02


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA OVER THE
WEEKEND EXCEPT FOR LOCATIONS GENERALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-85.
DRIER AIR WILL PRODUCE MINIMUM RH VALUES AROUND 30% IN LOCATIONS
ALONG AND NORTH OF THE I-20 CORRIDOR TODAY AND TOMORROW. NORTHEAST
TRANSPORT WINDS IN THE 10-20 MPH RANGE AND HIGH MIXING HEIGHTS
SHOULD MAKE FOR GOOD DISPERSION THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     92  64  93  66  95 /   0   0   0   0  10
ANNISTON    92  66  93  66  94 /   0   0   0   0  10
BIRMINGHAM  92  68  93  69  95 /   0   0   0   0  10
TUSCALOOSA  95  69  96  69  98 /   0   0   0   0  10
CALERA      92  66  93  64  95 /   0   0   0   0  10
AUBURN      90  70  92  71  94 /  20  10  10  10  10
MONTGOMERY  94  71  96  70  96 /  10  10  10  10  10
TROY        92  71  94  70  95 /  40  20  20  10  10

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$



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