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Area Forecast Discussion

366
FXUS64 KBMX 232349 AAA
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
649 PM CDT TUE SEP 23 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 00Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

MOISTURE REMAINS LIMITED ACROSS THE REGION TODAY...ESPECIALLY IN
THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS...AS AN UPPER TROUGH REMAINS PARKED
ACROSS THE CAROLINAS. CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE EASTERN
COUNTIES IS A RESULT OF MODESTLY MOIST EASTERLY FLOW IN THE LOW
LEVELS AROUND THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO
THE NORTH. WITH DEW POINTS IN THE 50S THIS AFTERNOON...LIGHT WINDS
AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT SHOULD RESULT IN OVERNIGHT LOWS IN
THE MID TO UPPER 50S FOR MOST SPOTS. TRANQUIL AND RAIN-FREE
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY AS MOISTURE
ONLY SLOWLY INCREASES WITH PERSISTENT EASTERLY FLOW.

RAIN CHANCES SHOULD INCREASE FROM SOUTH TO NORTH STARTING ON
SATURDAY AS DEEP-LAYER FLOW BECOMES MORE SOUTHERLY IN RESPONSE TO
A SLOW-MOVING UPPER TROUGH APPROACHING FROM TEXAS. MODELS
GENERALLY AGREE THAT A SURFACE WAVE WILL DEVELOP TO OUR WEST AS A
SLUG OF GULF MOISTURE MOVES INLAND ON SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. HAVE
GONE WITH WIDESPREAD 50 POPS SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...BUT RAIN
CHANCES WILL PROBABLY NEED TO BE INCREASED. WILL WAIT FOR BETTER
MODEL AGREEMENT AND CONSISTENCY BEFORE RAISING POPS.

87/GRANTHAM

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION.

WE HAD NORTHEAST/EAST WINDS ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA THIS AFTERNOON
AROUND A SURFACE RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE NORTHEAST UNITED STATES.
THE EASTERLY COMPONENT OF THE FLOW MAY AIDE IN USHERING IN SOME
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TONIGHT FROM GEORGIA WITH MVFR POSSIBLY IFR
STRATUS ACROSS THE EASTERN TAFS LATE TONIGHT AFTER 9Z. CONTINUING
MVFR MENTION AT TOI AND ADDED TEMPO LATE FOR MGM/ANB. SHOULD BE
VFR BY AROUND 14Z AS ATMOSPHERE START TO MIX OUT. FOR NOW WILL
KEEP BHM/EET VFR. WILL SEE HOW NEXT MODEL RUN AND SATELLITE TRENDS
PAN OUT TO SEE IF WE NEED TO ADD THEM IN THE 6Z SET OF TAFS. TCL
SHOULD REMAIN VFR.

08/MK

NOTE...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILL BEGIN ISSUING SEASONAL
TERMINAL FORECASTS FOR THE TALLADEGA MUNICIPAL AIRPORT (KASN) IN
TALLADEGA...ALABAMA. THE FORECAST WILL BEGIN OCTOBER 5TH AT 00Z
AND LAST THROUGH AT LEAST THE 23RD OF OCTOBER.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     54  82  56  84  59 /   0   0   0   0   0
ANNISTON    56  81  58  83  61 /   0   0   0   0   0
BIRMINGHAM  57  82  60  84  62 /   0   0   0   0   0
TUSCALOOSA  57  84  58  87  61 /   0   0   0   0   0
CALERA      59  82  60  84  62 /   0   0   0   0   0
AUBURN      58  81  61  82  64 /   0   0   0   0  10
MONTGOMERY  59  84  61  86  64 /   0   0   0   0   0
TROY        58  83  60  83  64 /   0   0   0   0  10

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

87/08





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