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Area Forecast Discussion

067
FXUS64 KBMX 241041
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
441 AM CST MON NOV 24 2014

.DISCUSSION...

A SURFACE FRONT...CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS WESTERN MISSISSIPPI
EARLY THIS MORNING SHOULD MAKE SUFFICIENT PROGRESS THROUGH SUNRISE
ACROSS MISSISSIPPI AND THEN MOVE ACROSS ALABAMA DURING THE
DAYTIME. WINDS ACROSS ARKANSAS AND MISSISSIPPI THIS AM ARE RATHER
ROBUST WITH TIGHT SURFACE GRADIENTS. HOWEVER...AS THE ASSOCIATED
LOW TREKS TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND THEN
INTO CANADA THIS MORNING PRESSURE GRADIENTS SHOULD LIGHTEN. SO
CURRENT THINKING IS THAT OUR WINDS...ALBEIT BREEZY AND GUSTY
SHOULD REMAIN BELOW WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA
TODAY. ON THE FLIP SIDE ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEAST (GENERALLY SOUTH
OF A TROY TO CRAWFORD LINE) FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS...COULD
SEE SOME PATCHY DRIZZLE...BUT THAT`S ABOUT IT WITH A LITTLE
LINGERING MOISTURE. AS FOR TEMPERATURES TODAY...THE FAR NORTHWEST
HAS ALREADY SEE THEIR CALENDAR DAY HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THE MOST
PART AS TEMPERATURES SHOULD STAY FAIRLY STEADY UNTIL THE FRONT
MOVES THROUGH THEN FALL SOME AND MAYBE GO BACK UP A COUPLE OF
DEGREES IN THE AFTERNOON AT BEST WITH MINIMAL DIURNAL EFFECTS.
THE I20 CORRIDOR SHOULD SEE ONLY MINIMAL WARMING TODAY AND THE I85
CORRIDOR SHOULD 10 DEGREES OR SO. THINGS SHOULD COOL OFF NICELY
BEHIND THE FRONT FOR TONIGHT...BUT SOME NORTHERLY WINDS WILL STICK
AROUND FOR THE OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY AND WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES
FOR THE MOST PART ABOVE FREEZING.

AN UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL SWING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST U.S.
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY THAT IS LOOKING A LITTLE BETTER AT BRINGING
SOME RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS MAINLY THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF CENTRAL
ALABAMA. AS INSTABILITY WILL BE LACKING...NO THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED. THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE GONE BY DAYTIME ON
WEDNESDAY WITH DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY
FOR THANKSGIVING DAY. MODELS ARE FAIRLY WEAK WITH THE DRY FRONTAL
BOUNDARY AND A TEMPORARY WIND SHIFT MAY BE ALL WE GET WITH THIS
ONE.

AS WE MOVE INTO THE WEEKEND...WE SHOULD SEE A SLIGHT MODERATING
OF TEMPERATURES. A FEW WEAK RIPPLES TO THE NORTH IN THE UPPER
MAINLY ZONAL FLOW MAY ALLOW FOR A SHOWER OR TWO TO SCRAPE ACROSS
THE FAR NORTHWEST SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY BUT STILL SOME DISAGREEMENT
IN EXTENDED MODEL SOLUTIONS AS TO HOW FAR SOUTH THIS DISTURBANCE
WILL SWING. SO FOR MOST...NEXT WEEKEND WILL BE DRY.

08/MK

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF DISCUSSION.

LOW CLOUDS ARE BACK IN THE AREA WITH SOME ISENTROPIC LIFT IN PLACE
FROM THE SOUTH AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. WINDS WILL REMAIN BRISK FOR THE
NIGHT SO NOT EXPECTING ANY WIDE-SPREAD IFR VIS ISSUES. MODELS HAVE
REALLY HIT HARD AT NOW IFR CIGS DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THE FRONT
OVERNIGHT AND WITH THE EXPECTATION OF THE FRONT NOT MAKING IT INTO
CENTRAL ALABAMA UNTIL 12Z...THAT SEEMS SENSIBLE. SO ADDED IN IFR
FOR ALL SITES EXCEPT TCL AND MGM. THERE MAY BE A BRIEF WINDOW IN
WHICH MGM DROPS BUT NOT LONG. SLOW CLEARING OF THE MVFR CIGS
AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH EVENTUAL VFR CIGS BY AFTER 18Z AS THE
FRONT CLEARS CENTRAL ALABAMA.

16

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     64  35  54  34  53 /  10  10  10  20  10
ANNISTON    67  38  55  36  54 /  10  10  20  20  10
BIRMINGHAM  64  40  56  37  55 /  10  10  10  20  10
TUSCALOOSA  64  38  57  35  57 /  10  10  10  10  10
CALERA      65  40  57  37  55 /  10  10  20  20  10
AUBURN      71  43  56  39  54 /  10  10  20  60  10
MONTGOMERY  72  41  59  37  59 /  10  10  20  40  10
TROY        74  41  58  37  57 /  10  10  30  60  10

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

08/16





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