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Area Forecast Discussion

623
FXUS64 KBMX 031815
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1215 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 18Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

AS WE REMAIN IN THE VERY MOIST AIRMASS THIS MORNING...RAIN SHOWERS
CONTINUE TO BLOSSOM AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WORKS NORTHWARD THROUGH
THE AREA. ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT FOG IS STILL MIXING IN WITH
THE RAIN SO CONTINUED THE MENTION OF THE FOG POTENTIAL IN THE HWO.
ALSO RAISED POPS QUITE A BIT IN THE CENTRAL AND NORTHEASTERN AREAS
TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS INCREASING TREND OF PRECIPITATION. IN REGARDS
TO TO THE WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY EVENT...WATCHING THE THE NEWEST
MODEL TRENDS COMING IN AND WILL BE UPDATING OUR CURRENT THINKING
THIS AFTERNOON ONCE ALL THE 12Z RUNS COME. RIGHT NOW MODELS ARE
BEGINNING TO SLOW DOWN..WHICH COULD CAUSE MORE OF A CONCERN. WITH
THAT SAID WILL CONTINUE TO REALLY FOCUS ON THE NORTH...SPECIFICALLY
THE NORTHWEST.

16


&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

IFR/LIFR CEILING AND VISIBILITY PROBLEMS AND SHOWERS PERSIST
ALONG AND NORTH OF WARM FRONT WHICH IS GRADUALLY WORKING NORTHWARD
ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA...TCL/BHM/EET/ASN/ANB BEING AFFECTED AT
ISSUANCE TIME. SOUTH OF THE FRONT...VIS HAS BECOME VFR WITH CIGS
BECOMING MVFR. EXPECT IMPROVING CONDITIONS AT TAF SITES FROM S TO
N GRADUALLY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...EXPECT CONDITIONS TO DEGRADE AGAIN OVERNIGHT
AS WARM MOIST GULF AIR CONTINUES TO STREAM NORTHWARD. EXPECT LIFR
STRATUS DECK TO FORM AND ADVECT NORTHWARD...WITH VIS/FG ISSUES
MAINLY AT MGM AND TOI LATE TONIGHT. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO AND REMAIN
OUT OF THE SOUTH THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

JD/02

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$







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