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Area Forecast Discussion

446
FXUS64 KBMX 301124
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
624 AM CDT SAT MAY 30 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 12Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

FOR THIS MORNING...WEAK SOUTHEAST/SOUTH FLOW CONTINUES AROUND THE
SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDING NORTHEAST FROM THE GULF COAST INTO THE
ATLANTIC. ALSO...A SURFACE FRONT EXTENDS FROM EASTERN CANADA INTO
THE GREAT LAKES AND TOWARD THE TEXAS PANHANDLE. THIS WILL PUSH
SOUTHEAST TODAY TOWARD THE MID MISSISSIPPI RIVER AND OHIO VALLEYS.
IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AS THE UPPER LONGWAVE TROUGH PROGRESSES
EASTWARD FROM THE ROCKIES TO THE CENTRAL PLAINS...WE WILL SEE A
SHORTWAVE ROTATE THROUGH THE EASTERN SIDE OF IT SWINGING THROUGH
ARKANSAS TOWARD ILLINOIS. SOME OF THE EFFECT OF THIS DISTURBANCE
ALONG WITH ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL GIVE US A NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHWEST GRADIENT OF POPS TODAY WITH ONLY LOW TO NIL CHANCES IN
THE SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF CENTRAL ALABAMA TODAY AND TONIGHT.

MODELS VARY GREATLY AS WE MOVE INTO NEXT WEEK. THE BIG DIFFERENCE
IN THE FORECAST IS THE MODEL SHIFT WITH THE UPPER LEVELS ON SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY AS NOW THE UPPER TROUGH SHIFTS EASTWARD BUT THERE ARE
MODELS DIFFERENCES AS TO IF THE UPPER LOW DEVELOPS FROM THIS
LONGWAVE TROUGH AT ALL AND NOT AS FAR WEST AS YESTERDAYS RUN. SO
WITH THE SHIFT IN THE TROUGH EASTWARD...OUR SAID SURFACE FRONT MAY
MAKE A TAD MORE PROGRESS AS WELL THROUGH CENTRAL ALABAMA MONDAY
INTO TUESDAY. THIS MAY ACTUALLY ALLOW THE NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF
THE STATE TO HAVE MUCH LOWER POPS BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

PART OF THE UNCERTAINTY ALSO DEALS WITH THE GFS DEVELOPING A
SURFACE LOW IN THE CARIBBEAN TAKING IT UP THE FLORIDA COAST
TOWARD THE CAROLINAS BY NEXT WEEKEND. THIS WOULD PUT US IN A DRIER
PATTERN OVER ALABAMA. SO FOR NOW I HAVE LOWERED POPS BUT AS THIS
IS FAR OUT AND NOT THE ONLY POSSIBLE SCENARIO...NOT COMPLETELY
REMOVING POPS IN THE EXTENDED UNTIL WE GET A BETTER HANDLE ON
IF THIS LOW DEVELOPS AND A BETTER FEEL ON ITS EVENTUAL TRACK.

08/MK


&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF DISCUSSION.

MVFR VISIBILITIES AT KEET SHOULD IMPROVE SHORTLY WITH VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGHOUT THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF
CYCLE. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
LATER IN THE DAY BUT COVERAGE SHOULD BE A BIT MORE LIMITED THAN
THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS. THEREFORE...HAVE KEPT THE TAFS DRY FOR
NOW AND WILL MAKE AMENDMENTS AS NECESSARY.

05/MA

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$



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