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Area Forecast Discussion

515
FXUS64 KBMX 262348
AFDBMX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
648 PM CDT TUE JUL 26 2016

.UPDATE...
For 00Z Aviation.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

An elongated area of weak low pressure or surface trough has been
the focus for thunderstorm development today along the Gulf Coast.
A band of showers and storms across our Southwest counties will
continue to rotate around the area of low pressure and affect the
West through the afternoon. Most of the activity should diminish
this evening, though a few isolated showers cannot be ruled out
through midnight as the surface trough moves inland.

The area of weak low pressure is also associated with a broad area
of lower heights at 500mb. This feature is expected to persist to
our west on Wednesday and eventually join with a trough moving
into the Ohio Valley on Thursday. The broad and slow-moving 500mb
trough will be associated with deep-layer southwesterly flow
leading to above average rain chances beginning on Thursday and
continuing through Monday particularly across the northern half of
the forecast area.

87/Grantham


&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF Discussion.

Convection is dissipating quickly and did not include any wx at
any TAF site for the overnight hours. A low pressure area over sw
Mississippi will track inland overnight and southerly low level
flow will increase across Alabama. The flow will bring gulf
moisture northward and mvfr cigs are expected to develop arnd 09z
across southwest Alabama and spread northeastward. Confidence in
lower cigs higher across west Alabama, but models are showing good
coverage of lower cigs and included them in all TAF sites. Surface
humidity already high at KTOI due to earlier rain and included
some mvfr conds due to fog starting arnd 08z. Early morning cloud
cover should burn off quickly due to good mixing. TS will develop
again during afternoon heating with higher chances along and west
of I-65.

58/rose

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected over
the next several days with highs in the 90s. Surface winds will be
rather light and generally from the south to southeast, although
some variability will also exist. Since surface dew points are so
high, critical fire weather thresholds are not expected to be met
with no watches or warnings anticipated.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden     74  91  72  88  71 /  20  40  30  50  30
Anniston    74  91  72  89  71 /  20  40  20  30  20
Birmingham  76  90  73  88  73 /  20  40  30  50  30
Tuscaloosa  75  90  73  89  72 /  50  50  30  50  20
Calera      74  89  73  90  72 /  30  40  20  40  20
Auburn      73  90  73  92  73 /  30  30  20  20  20
Montgomery  75  93  74  96  74 /  40  40  20  20  20
Troy        73  91  72  93  72 /  40  40  20  20  20

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$



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