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Area Forecast Discussion

923
FXUS64 KBMX 142157
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
357 PM CST SUN FEB 14 2016

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT

WARM AIR ADVECTION HAS OVERSPREAD CENTRAL ALABAMA THIS AFTERNOON.
THE MORNING CLOUDS DELAYED THE WARM-UP ACROSS THE NORTHERN
COUNTIES...BUT TEMPERATURES ARE RISING QUICKLY THIS AFTERNOON WITH
UPPER 40S NORTH TO LOWER 60S SOUTH. DESPITE SOUTHERLY WINDS AND
CLOUDS...THE AIR MASS IS STILL VERY DRY AND IT WILL TAKE AWHILE FOR
THE ATMOSPHERE TO MOISTEN ENOUGH FOR THE PRODUCTION OF RAINDROPS. NO
RAIN IS EXPECTED ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA BEFORE MIDNIGHT..AND ANY
RAIN BEFORE SUNRISE MONDAY SHOULD BE CONFINED TO AREAS NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 20. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE MUCH WARMER THAN THE PREVIOUS
TWO NIGHTS WITH READINGS IN THE 40S.

58/ROSE

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. A WEAK SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE FROM
NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI TO NORTHERN ALABAMA WHILE A TRAILING COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD. WE WILL MAINTAIN THE LIMITED SEVERE
THREAT ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA FOR MONDAY.
DEWPOINTS WILL NEED TO INCREASE MARKEDLY FROM WHERE THEY ARE
PRESENTLY, BUT RETURN FLOW IS STARTING TO BRING LOW 50S DEWPOINTS
INTO LOUISIANA THIS AFTERNOON. MODEL GUIDANCE IS CONSISTENT WITH
BRINGING UPPER 50S DEWPOINTS INTO OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES TOMORROW
AFTERNOON. DESPITE THESE MODEST DEWPOINTS, RELATIVELY COOL 500 MB
TEMPERATURES OF AROUND -18 TO -19 DEGREES C WILL ALLOW MID-LEVEL
LAPSE RATES OF AROUND 6.5 C/KM TO DEVELOP. INSTABILITY HAS BEEN
TRENDING UPWARD A BIT WITH THE GFS NOW INDICATING UP TO 800 J/KG
OF SBCAPE POSSIBLE IN THE SOUTHWEST, BUT THIS WILL BE DEPENDENT ON
MOISTURE RETURN, CLOUD COVER, AND PRECIPITATION. SREF
PROBABILITIES OF > 500 J/KG ARE ONLY AROUND 40 PERCENT. 0-6 KM
BULK SHEAR WILL BE AROUND 40-45 KTS WHILE 0-3KM SHEAR WILL BE
AROUND 35 KTS. THESE VALUES ARE SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS...BUT
ARE LOWER THAN TYPICAL LOW INSTABILITY SEVERE WEATHER EVENTS.
HOWEVER, MUCH OF THE SHEAR IS CONCENTRATED IN THE LOWER 1 KM AS
0-1 KM SHEAR VALUES ARE AROUND 30 KTS. THEREFORE A LOW-CONFIDENCE
THREAT OF A BRIEF TORNADO AND ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS REMAINS
DURING THE NOON TO 8PM TIMEFRAME. HIGH-RESOLUTION MODELS INDICATE
THE POTENTIAL FOR A CONVECTIVE LINE TO DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT
WITH SUPERCELLS POSSIBLE AHEAD OF THE FRONT.

HAVE SLOWED DOWN THE PROGRESSION OF THE RAIN BASED ON LATEST MODEL
TRENDS AND CONSIDERING THAT THE CURRENT DRY AIR MASS WILL NEED TO
BE OVERCOME. RAINFALL AMOUNTS HAVE BEEN TRENDING DOWNWARD WITH THE
HEAVIEST RAINFALL AMOUNTS NOW EXPECTED TO BE NORTHWEST OF THE
AREA. WITH AREA-AVERAGE RAINFALL AMOUNTS NOW FORECAST TO BE IN THE
1-1.25 INCH RANGE, HAVE REMOVED THE THREAT OF FLASH FLOODING FROM
THE HWO. A FEW HEAVY DOWNPOURS COULD STILL CAUSE SOME LOCALIZED
FLOODING IN POORLY DRAINED AREAS. WITH THE LOW-LEVEL JET PRESENT
IT WILL ALSO BE BREEZY WITH WIND GUSTS OF AROUND 20 KTS POSSIBLE,
POSSIBLY A BIT HIGHER IF GREATER MIXING OCCURS THAN CURRENTLY
FORECAST.

SURFACE WINDS QUICKLY TURN SOUTHWESTERLY ON TUESDAY WITH HIGHS
REACHING THE LOW 60S IN MANY LOCATIONS. IT WILL ALSO BE ANOTHER
BREEZY DAY WITH WIND GUSTS OF 20-25 KTS POSSIBLE. A CLIPPER SYSTEM
WILL PASS TO THE NORTH OF CENTRAL ALABAMA AS WELL. MOISTURE WILL
REMAIN LIMITED WITH THIS SYSTEM, AND WILL MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS ACROSS THE FAR NORTH. TEMPERATURES COOL DOWN BY A COUPLE
DEGREES DUE TO WEAK COLD ADVECTION BEHIND THE CLIPPER.

LATE IN THE WEEK THE EAST COAST TROUGH MOVES EASTWARD...ALLOWING
THE WEST COAST RIDGE TO BEGIN TO EXERT ITS INFLUENCE OVER CENTRAL
ALABAMA. A NICE WARM-UP IS IN STORE FOR THURSDAY THROUGH THE END
OF THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S AND 70S. A COLD FRONT
MAY TRY TO APPROACH NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA IN THE
FRIDAY NIGHT TO SATURDAY NIGHT PERIOD AS A FEW WAVES TRY TO BREAK
DOWN THE RIDGE...BUT WITH LITTLE MODEL AGREEMENT, LIMITED
MOISTURE, AND QUASI-ZONAL FLOW, WILL STICK CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE NORTH.

32/DAVIS

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL LINGER ACROSS NORTH ALABAMA THROUGH
12Z. MVFR CIGS WILL QUICKLY DEVELOP OVER WEST ALABAMA BETWEEN 12Z
AND 15Z AND ADVANCE ACROSS MOST OF CENTRAL ALABAMA BY 18Z.
SOUTHEAST WINDS 5-8 KTS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE NORTHERN TAF
SITES...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF KANB...WHERE WINDS WILL KEEP A MORE
EASTERLY COMPONENT. A FEW SHWRS COULD IMPACT KTCL AFTER 12Z BUT
VSBYS WILL PROBABLY STAY ABOVE 5 MILES.

58/ROSE


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

MOISTURE VALUES WILL INCREASE TONIGHT WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN
EXPECTED MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. DRY CONDITIONS RETURN ON
TUESDAY. NO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS EXPECTED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     43  56  40  60  37 /  30 100  90  20  10
ANNISTON    42  57  41  61  38 /  20 100  90  10  10
BIRMINGHAM  48  60  41  61  39 /  20 100  80  10  10
TUSCALOOSA  47  63  41  64  39 /  20 100  70  10   0
CALERA      47  60  42  62  40 /  10 100  80  10  10
AUBURN      43  58  43  62  40 /  10 100 100  10  10
MONTGOMERY  45  65  44  66  41 /  10 100  90  10   0
TROY        42  64  45  66  42 /  10  80 100  10   0

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$



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