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Area Forecast Discussion

206
FXUS64 KBMX 282343
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
543 PM CST FRI NOV 28 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 00Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

CRYSTAL CLEAR SKIES ARE UPON ALL OF THE SOUTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON AS
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MAINTAINS CONTROL. WE`LL SEE THAT SURFACE HIGH
CONTINUING TO SHIFT OFF TO THE EAST THIS AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE ABLE TO FALL EASILY INTO THE LOW TO
MID 30S WITH GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS IN PLACE. SOUTHERLY
WINDS WILL KICK IN DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY BEGINNING THE STRONG
WARMING TREND FOR THE WEEKEND. CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING WITH STRONG ISENTROPIC LIFT IN
PLACE. LOW CLOUDS COULD BE WIDESPREAD ALONG AND WEST OF THE I-65
CORRIDOR THROUGH MUCH OF SUNDAY MORNING WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY
CONDITIONS CONTINUING INTO THE AFTERNOON. CLOUDY SKIES SHOULD
CONTINUE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING...WITH MILD OVERNIGHT
LOWS AS DEWPOINTS CONTINUE TO RISE.

THICKNESSES WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE WITH THE SOUTHERLY
FLOW...SUPPORTING UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S AREAWIDE FOR HIGHS SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE...A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL BE DIVING SOUTHWARD
OUT OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS SUNDAY EVENING. A FAIRLY ZONAL 500MB FLOW
WILL HELP SLOW THE FRONT DOWN DRAMATICALLY BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON...STRETCHING FROM SHREVEPORT LOUISIANA NORTHEASTWARD TO
HUNTSVILLE BY MONDAY EVENING. AS THE FRONT STALLS...SO WILL SUPPORT
AND LIFT FOR WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION. THEREFORE...HAVE KEPT MENTION
OF 20-30 POPS ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF CENTRAL ALABAMA MONDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY. THE FRONT IS ADVERTISED TO EVENTUALLY
WASH OUT OVER THE SOUTHEAST WITH RAINFALL CHANCES DIMINISHING BY THE
END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN NEAR
OR JUST ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK.

56/GDG


&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION.

VFR CONDS EXPECTED THRU THE PERIOD. LOW LEVEL PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT AND SOUTHERLY SFC WINDS WILL BECOME 5-10
KNOTS BY 18Z AT ALL TAF SITES. ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL PRODUCE A
CORRIDOR OF LOW CLOUDS ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER BETWEEN 06Z AND
12Z. THE CLOUDS WILL LIKELY REACH NW ALABAMA BETWEEN 12Z AND
15Z...BUT THE MODELS KEEP THE HIGHER MOISTURE JUST NORTH OF KTCL
AND KBHM. EXPECT TO SEE SOME CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT AT NORTHERN TAF
SITES AFTER 15Z...BUT WILL KEEP CLOUDS SCATTERED.

58/ROSE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     28  60  47  66  51 /   0   0   0   0   0
ANNISTON    31  61  47  67  51 /   0   0   0   0   0
BIRMINGHAM  35  62  51  67  55 /   0   0   0   0   0
TUSCALOOSA  34  64  52  71  54 /   0   0   0   0   0
CALERA      35  63  50  68  53 /   0   0   0   0   0
AUBURN      34  61  46  67  50 /   0   0   0   0   0
MONTGOMERY  33  66  48  71  51 /   0   0   0   0   0
TROY        31  65  47  71  49 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$







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