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Area Forecast Discussion

330
FXUS64 KBMX 310308 AAA
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1008 PM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

.UPDATE...
EVENING UPDATE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

LONGWAVE TROUGH THAT IS RESPONSIBLE FOR THE COOLER TEMPERATURES
REMAINS ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS TONIGHT. A SHORTWAVE ROTATING
THROUGH THE TROUGH HAS RESULTED IN RAIN AND STORMS WELL TO OUR
WEST ACROSS ARKANSAS AND OKLAHOMA. THIS ACTIVITY WILL MOVE SLOWLY
TO THE SOUTHEAST...REMAINING WELL WEST OF THE AREA TONIGHT. HIGH
CLOUDS AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM HAVE SPREAD ACROSS CENTRAL
ALABAMA...AND HAVE SLOWED THE POST SUNSET COOLING. TEMPERATURES
REMAIN IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S.

HAVE ADJUSTED TEMP TRENDS OVERNIGHT...WHICH HAS BROUGHT OVERNIGHT
LOWS UP A COUPLE DEGREES. HAVE UPDATED THE CLIMATE SECTION
BELOW...BUT WITH HIGH CLOUDS INCREASING IT WILL BE DIFFICULT TO
BREAK RECORDS AGAIN TONIGHT.

LATEST MODEL RUNS ARE SHOWING THE POSSIBILITY OF LOW LIFT
TOMORROW AFTERNOON ACROSS THE FAR EAST. LIFT IS VERY WEAK
THOUGH...AND WILL NOT BE MENTIONING ANY MEASURABLE RAINFALL AT
THIS TIME.

14

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION.

SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS MOVING IN FROM THE WEST. NORTHERLY WINDS
AROUND 5 KTS. NO VIS ISSUES.

88


&&

.CLIMATE...

WITH HIGH CLOUDS MOVING ACROSS THE AREA...IT WILL BE DIFFICULT TO
BREAK RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES FOR A SECOND NIGHT IN A ROW ACROSS
CENTRAL ALABAMA. BELWOW IS THE UPDATED FORECAST FOR TONIGHT AND
THE CURRENT RECORD LOW FOR JULY 31. ANNISTON STANDS THE BEST
CHANCE TO BREAK THE RECORD AS CIRRUS WILL BE THINNER ACROSS THE
EAST.

               JULY 31    CURRENT
SITE        FORECAST LOW  RECORD    YEAR
----------  ------------  --------  ----
ANNISTON         64          60     1965
BIRMINGHAM       68          59     1965
MONTGOMERY       65          62     1936
TUSCALOOSA       66          62     1994*

* RECORDS FOR TUSCALOOSA THAT APPEAR IN CURRENT DATABASES ON-LINE
HAVE SPORADIC DATA MISSING FROM 1994 TO 1999. HOWEVER SOME DATA FOR
SPECIFIC DAYS HAVE BEEN IMPORTED INTO OUR CLIMATE PROGRAM OVER THE
PAST SEVERAL YEARS. THIS DATA IS ACCURATE BUT IS CURRENTLY
UNAVAILABLE ON-LINE. WE APOLOGIZE FOR ANY DISCREPANCIES AND ARE
WORKING TO RESOLVE THE ISSUE AS SOON AS POSSIBLE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 636 PM CDT WED JUL 30 2014/

WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE BEING OBSERVED ACROSS CENTRAL
ALABAMA THIS AFTERNOON...WITH LOWER 80S NORTH TO UPPER 80S SOUTH.
VERY DRY AIR CONTINUES TO DOMINATE WITH 50S DEWPOINTS FOR MOST
LOCATIONS AND EVEN UPPER 40S DEWPOINTS AT THIS HOUR IN BIRMINGHAM.
THE DRY AIR WILL HELP TO CONTRIBUTE TO ANOTHER VERY PLEASANT NIGHT
AGAIN TONIGHT...BUT A BIT WARMER THAN WHAT WE OBSERVED THIS MORNING.
STILL...A FEW LOCATIONS COULD BE APPROACHING RECORD VALUES.
GENERALLY UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S ARE EXPECTED...WITH A FEW MID 50S
IN THE NORMALLY COOLER LOCATIONS. LOOKING AT VISIBLE SATELLITE THIS
AFTERNOON...WIDESPREAD CLOUDS ARE MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD INTO
NORTHWEST MISSISSIPPI ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE.
WE`LL SEE IF ENOUGH CLOUD COVER CAN MOVE INTO ALABAMA OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT. IF SO...THE DIURNAL CURVE COULD BE AFFECTED AND LOWS COULD
BE A BIT HIGHER THAN ARE CURRENTLY ADVERTISED. SEE THE CLIMATE
SECTION BELOW FOR INFO ON THURSDAY MORNING`S RECORD LOWS.

CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY ON THURSDAY AS THE
SHORTWAVE MOVES ALONG THE BASE OF THE PERSISTENT EASTERN CONUS
TROUGH. WE SHOULDN`T SEE TOO MUCH IN THE WAY OF RAINFALL AS THE
SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH...WITH FAIRLY DRY AIR REMAINING IN PLACE. WE
COULD SEE SOME VIRGA ON RADAR THURSDAY AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY WEST AND
NORTHWEST INITIALLY...BUT A FEW SHOWERS CAN`T BE RULED OUT. MOISTURE
VALUES WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE BY THURSDAY NIGHT AS EASTERLY FLOW
BEGINS AT THE SURFACE. LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG WITH UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCES MOVING FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST IN THE BASE OF THE
UPPER TROUGH WILL LEAD TO A STAGNANT WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS CENTRAL
ALABAMA THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEK. BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE DUE TO WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER AND ABOVE
CLIMO PRECIP CHANCES EACH DAY. BY MONDAY AND TUESDAY GUIDANCE IS
PRESENTING THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME UPPER LEVEL ENERGY BEING CUT OFF
JUST TO OUR WEST FROM THE MAIN FLOW AS THE TROUGH FINALLY PULLS
NORTHEASTWARD. IF THIS VERIFIES...WE COULD BE STUCK IN A MOIST
PATTERN ONCE AGAIN WITH WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND DECENT PRECIP CHANCES
ONCE AGAIN. IN OTHER WORDS...THE BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES LOOK TO
BE HERE TO STAY FOR QUITE A WHILE.

56/GDG

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     62  84  66  81  67 /   0   0  30  40  40
ANNISTON    64  84  67  81  68 /   0   0  30  50  40
BIRMINGHAM  68  85  69  83  69 /   0  10  30  40  40
TUSCALOOSA  66  85  68  85  69 /   0  20  30  40  40
CALERA      67  86  69  84  69 /   0   0  30  40  40
AUBURN      66  88  68  84  69 /   0   0  20  50  30
MONTGOMERY  65  91  69  88  71 /   0   0  20  40  40
TROY        63  90  67  87  70 /   0   0  20  40  30

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$







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