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Area Forecast Discussion

657
FXUS64 KBMX 240910
AFDBMX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
410 AM CDT TUE MAY 24 2016

.DISCUSSION...

Upper level heights begin increasing today as the ridge begins
building. Models are not quite as robust this run but the heights
are still in the 588dam range. The low level thicknesses and 850
temps are generally the same as previous runs. Very little spread
once again from the GFS ensemble members with highs 85 to 90,
while the ECMWF is slightly higher and displays more standard
deviation. Still leaning toward the higher members of the
ensembles with highs 86 to 91 through Friday. Rain chances remain
low as the mean relative humidity values stay in the 50-60 range,
precipitable water values just over 1 inch, and little in the way
of a trigger.

By the weekend, an upper low moves westward from the Atlantic and
will affect Central Alabama. Upper heights will fall east to west
and thicknesses and 750 temps follow suite. Will advertise a
gradient in highs from east to west Saturday and beyond. Rain
chances do not increase dramatically as upper flow is light but
moisture increases enough to mention small chances everywhere
mainly daytime.

75

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF Discussion.

VFR conditions should prevail through the period. There is a
small chance that visibility may briefly drop to MVFR at TOI due
to localized ground fog around sunrise, but chances are too low to
include in the TAF. Winds will be calm overnight and become light
southerly Tuesday, remaining 6 kts or less.

32/Davis


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Dry conditions are expected through Wednesday with only minimal
rain chances the remainder of the week. Low level moisture will
increase slowly through the end of the week, but this afternoon
and Wednesday afternoon relative humdity values drop into the 30s.
There are no fire weather concerns at this time.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden     88  58  89  63  89 /   0   0  10  10  20
Anniston    87  61  88  65  88 /   0   0  10   0  10
Birmingham  88  64  89  67  89 /   0   0  10  10  10
Tuscaloosa  88  63  89  66  89 /   0   0  10   0  10
Calera      87  63  88  66  88 /   0   0   0   0  10
Auburn      84  63  86  67  86 /   0   0   0   0  10
Montgomery  90  64  91  67  91 /   0   0   0   0  10
Troy        89  62  90  66  90 /   0   0   0   0  10

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$



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