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Area Forecast Discussion

261
FXUS64 KBMX 021150
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
650 AM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 12Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

EAST-WEST ORIENTED UPPER RIDGE STILL SITUATED OVER THE
SOUTHEAST CONUS WITH ANOTHER STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH TRACKING
EASTWARD FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS TOWARD THE OHIO VALLEY. A
THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX IS ONGOING ACROSS INDIANA SOUTHWESTWARD TO
KANSAS IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS UPPER SHORTWAVE. MEANWHILE...TS
DOLLY IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE IS MOVING NORTHWEST TOWARD MEXICO.

A FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM THIS SYSTEM WILL SLIDE SOUTHWARD TOWARD
THE TENNESSEE VALLEY LATER TODAY AS THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES
INTO NEW ENGLAND. THE FRONT LOOKS TO STALL JUST BEFORE REACHING
CENTRAL ALABAMA AS 500MB FLOW BECOMES ZONAL NORTH OF THE FLATTENED
RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEAST. ALTHOUGH WE WON`T HAVE THE FRONT IN OUR CWA TO
HELP PROVIDE LIFT THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE MOIST AND UNSTABLE ENOUGH
FOR SCATTERED DIURNAL CONVECTION TODAY. ANY OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES
FROM THE ONGOING MCS COULD ALSO AID IN CONVECTIVE INITIATION THIS
AFTERNOON. AS IS TYPICAL THIS TIME OF YEAR THE CONVECTION SHOULD
DECREASE IN COVERAGE AS THE SUN SETS. HIGHS TODAY WILL ONCE AGAIN
BE IN THE LOW/MID 90S.

WEAKNESSES WITHIN THE RIDGE WILL LEAD TO SCATTERED DIURNALLY-
DRIVEN CONVECTION THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN JUST ABOVE CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMALS THRU FRIDAY WITH
HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 90S AND LOWS IN THE LOW 70S.

A WEAK UPPER TROF WILL ALLOW ANOTHER COLD FRONT TO SLIDE SOUTH
TOWARD THE GULF COAST STATES OVER THE WEEKEND. LIFT PROVIDED BY
THIS BOUNDARY WILL LEAD TO AT LEAST SCATTERED CONVECTION
SATURDAY/SUNDAY AND INTO MONDAY. DEPENDING ON THE PLACEMENT OF THE
REMNANTS OF THIS BOUNDARY POPS COULD END UP BEING HIGHER THAN
WHAT IS CURRENTLY ADVERTISED FOR ONE OR MORE OF THESE PERIODS.
ALTHOUGH TRUE COLD AIR ADVECTION IS NOT ANTICIPATED BEHIND THE
FRONT INCREASED THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE AND WEAK NORTHERLY FLOW WILL
BRING HIGH TEMPS BACK DOWN NEAR NORMAL.

19


&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF DISCUSSION.

CENTRAL ALABAMA SHOULD STILL REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. AT
THIS TIME...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE ANTICIPATED BY
AFTERNOON...BUT THE COVERAGE WILL NOT BE HIGH ENOUGH TO MENTION
JUST YET. ADDED A BRIEF MENTION OF SOME CLOUDS BELOW 1K FT AT
TCL THIS MORNING AND MIXED BEGINS AS THE SUN RISES. WINDS WILL
REMAIN SOUTHWEST AROUND 6 KTS BUT MAY BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE AT
TIMES.

RAIN CHANCES REMAIN AT LEAST SCATTERED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

75

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     92  68  93  70  91 /  30  20  40  20  40
ANNISTON    93  70  93  71  93 /  30  20  40  20  40
BIRMINGHAM  93  74  94  73  94 /  30  20  40  20  40
TUSCALOOSA  95  72  95  71  95 /  30  20  40  20  40
CALERA      93  72  93  72  93 /  30  20  40  20  40
AUBURN      93  73  92  72  92 /  30  20  40  20  40
MONTGOMERY  95  73  95  73  95 /  30  20  40  20  40
TROY        94  71  94  72  92 /  30  20  40  20  40

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$








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