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Area Forecast Discussion

455
FXUS64 KBMX 022050
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
350 PM CDT MON MAY 2 2016

.DISCUSSION...

A LATE SEASON COOL FRONT HAS PUSHED INTO NORTHWEST ALABAMA THIS
AFTERNOON. IT IS SURPRISING THE FRONT HAS MADE IT THIS FAR SOUTH
GIVEN THE ZONAL FLOW PATTERN ALOFT. THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO MAKE
IT DOWN TO THE I-59 CORRIDOR BY SUNRISE TUESDAY. SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING
HOURS...AND LIKE LAST NIGHT...THE ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH QUICKLY
AFTER SUNSET. AS THE UPPER TROF AXIS OVER THE OHIO VALLEY REGION
SHIFTS SOUTHEAST ON TUESDAY...THE COOL FRONT WILL SINK SLOWLY
SOUTHWARD ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL ALABAMA. THE FRONT WILL BE THE
PRIMARY FOCUS FOR CONVECTION ON TUESDAY. THE UPSTREAM SHORT WAVE
TROF IS POSITIVELY TILTED SO THERE IS NOT MUCH UPPER SUPPORT WITH
THE FRONT. THE CONVECTION WILL PEAK DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS...
MAINLY FOR AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-20. A FEW STRONG STORMS
POSSIBLE ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-85 AS CAPE VALUES APPROACH 2000
J/KG...BUT HIGHER BULK SHEAR VALUES WILL STAY NORTH OF THE
INSTABILITY AXIS...LIMITING SEVERE POTENTIAL. THERE WILL BE SOME
LINGERING SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY EVENING AS THE
FRONT SHIFTS INTO SOUTHEAST ALABAMA. ALL THE RAIN SHOULD BE OUT OF
SOUTHEAST COUNTIES OF CENTRAL ALABAMA BY MIDNIGHT TUESDAY NIGHT.

DRIER AND COOLER CONDITIONS ON WEDNESDAY AS A SURFACE HIGH BUILDS
INTO THE AREA. A MUCH COOLER AIR MASS WILL ARRIVE WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AS A STRONGER SHORT WAVE DIVES SOUTHWARD FROM THE GREAT LAKES
REGION. SOME OF THE NORTHEAST COUNTIES WILL NOT GET OUT OF THE 60S
ON THURSDAY...WITH WIDESPREAD 40S ACROSS ALL OF CENTRAL ALABAMA
FRIDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE OVER THE WEEKEND AS AN
UPPER RIDGE OVER TEXAS SHIFTS EASTWARD TOWARDS ALABAMA. NO RAIN
FORECAST THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY.

58/ROSE

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

BEST SH/TS COVERAGE IS EXPECTED THIS AFTN WITH COVERAGE DECREASING
THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS A COLD FRONT SLIDES SE THRU THE
FORECAST AREA. WINDS WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE SW AROUND 5-10 KTS
THIS AFTN...THEN DECREASING AND SHIFTING TO THE W/NW BEHIND THE
FRONT. ALL MODELS INDICATE LOW STRATUS RETURNING OVERNIGHT BUT
CONFIDENCE IN THE CIGS IS LOW AT THIS TIME.

19


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT...MAINLY BEFORE
MIDNIGHT. A MOIST AIR MASS WILL REMAIN OVER CENTRAL ALABAMA THROUGH
TUESDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH CENTRAL ALABAMA ON
TUESDAY. THE FRONT WILL TRIGGER SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN ON TUESDAY...MAINLY SOUTH OF I-20. THE RAIN
WILL SHIFT OUT OF SOUTH ALABAMA TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE FRONT PUSHES
THROUGH THE AREA. MUCH COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY. WARMING TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND AS AN UPPER
RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE AREA. NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS AT THIS TIME.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     58  76  49  74  48 /  60  30  10  10  30
ANNISTON    61  77  53  74  49 /  60  30  10  10  30
BIRMINGHAM  60  76  53  74  51 /  60  20  10  10  20
TUSCALOOSA  60  77  51  76  51 /  60  20  10   0  10
CALERA      61  76  53  74  52 /  60  30  10   0  10
AUBURN      63  77  54  74  53 /  60  40  20   0  10
MONTGOMERY  65  80  55  77  54 /  60  40  20   0  10
TROY        65  80  55  77  54 /  60  50  20   0  10

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$



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