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Area Forecast Discussion

704
FXUS64 KBMX 310944
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
444 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.DISCUSSION...

WELL...AN ACTIVE PERIOD IS ANTICIPATED THE NEXT SEVEN TO TEN
DAYS.

WILL ADD A SMALL MENTION OF SEVERE STORMS FROM AROUND NOON THROUGH
8 OR 9 PM. THIS MAY OCCUR THROUGH THE HEART OF CENTRAL ALABAMA.
THE THREAT WILL BE SOME MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL AND POTENTIAL WIND
GUSTS. A QUASI STATIONARY BOUNDARY WILL SLOWLY MOVE NORTHWARD AS A
WARM FRONT AND NOT REALLY MOVE TOO FAR. MUCH OF CENTRAL ALABAMA
WILL BE IN THE FRONTAL ZONE WITH PLENTY OF INSTABILITY DEVELOPING.
0-6 KM BULK SHEAR VALUES REACH 35-40KTS...AN UPPER DISTURBANCE
MOVES OVERHEAD PROVIDING UPWARD MOTION...DECENT LAPSE RATES
EXISTS...AND WE ARE LOCATED NEAR THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF A 95 KT
UPPER JET. ALTHOUGH LOW LEVEL FORCING IS A BIT LACKING...EXPECT
THUNDERSTORMS...A FEW OF WHICH MAY BRIEFLY BECOME SEVERE.

ON WEDNESDAY...NOT AS MUCH UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT FOR STRONGER
THUNDERSTORMS AND BULK SHEAR IS MUCH LOWER...BUT THE
THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT IS SOMEWHAT SIMILAR. AS WE HEAT
UP...INSTABILITY FORMS. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A STRONG TO
MARGINALLY SEVERE STORM...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LESSER WEDNESDAY.

THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES THE AREA FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO
FRIDAY NIGHT. THE MODEL OUTPUT HAS NOT BEEN OVERLY CONSISTENT
WITH THE SPECIFIC PARAMETERS....WHICH IS QUITE NORMAL THAT FAR
AWAY. BUT THINGS ARE TRENDING TOWARD HAVING SOME SEVERE STORMS AT
LEAST POSSIBLE. THE PARENT UPPER SYSTEM AND ITS ASSOCIATED LOW
MOVE NORTHWEST AND NORTH OF THE AREA...BUT THE COLD FRONT PUSHES
INTO THE AREA AROUND MAXIMUM HEATING. THIS INSTABILITY COMBINED
WITH HIGHER BULK SHEAR/INCREASED WINDS ALOFT WILL PROVIDE ENOUGH
SUPPORT FOR THE MENTION OF MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS.

TEMPERATURES DIP BELOW NORMAL FOR EARLY APRIL BEHIND THE FRONT
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. THEN SOME MODERATION TAKES PLACE. ANOTHER
SYSTEM TAKES SHAPE IN THE 7 TO 10 DAY TIME FRAME THAT WILL BARE
WATCHING CLOSELY.

75

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF DISCUSSION.

LATEST SUITE OF GUIDANCE AND OBSERVATIONS ON SATELLITE LATE THIS
EVENING HAVE INDICATED A TREND FOR LESS DEVELOPMENT OF LOWER
CIGS...ESPECIALLY FOR THE NORTHERN TERMINALS FROM 09 TO 12Z.
THEREFORE...HAVE REMOVED THE MVFR CIGS FROM THE PREVIOUS ISSUANCE.
FOR KMGM AND KTOI...A GOOD CHANCE OF FOG DEVELOPMENT REMAINS IN
THE FORECAST WITH AN OLD STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN THE VICINITY.
ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL EXIST FOR MVFR TO PERHAPS IFR VIS
TO DEVELOP CLOSE TO SUNRISE...BUT COULD BE INTERMITTENT IN NATURE.
NOT MUCH CHANGE IN TERMS OF THE THINKING FOR VCTS IN THE TAFS
DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
STORMS WILL EXIST STARTING LATE IN THE MORNING AND LASTING THROUGH
THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. HAVE ALSO ADDED IN VCTS TO THE TAF FOR
KMGM AND KTOI AS THE STORMS SHOULD MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD DIMINISH OR
MOVE OFF TO OUR EAST FROM 00Z TO 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT.

56/GDG


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     74  50  75  56  77 /  60  40  30  30  40
ANNISTON    74  51  76  57  78 /  60  40  30  30  40
BIRMINGHAM  74  54  78  59  80 /  70  40  40  30  40
TUSCALOOSA  77  58  79  60  82 /  70  30  40  30  40
CALERA      76  57  78  59  80 /  70  30  40  30  40
AUBURN      75  56  78  58  79 /  60  40  40  30  20
MONTGOMERY  82  59  80  60  83 /  60  40  40  30  20
TROY        81  60  80  59  82 /  50  40  50  30  20

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$



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