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Area Forecast Discussion

148
FXUS64 KBMX 050449
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1149 PM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 06Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE COUNTRY WILL
GET UNDERCUT BY A SERIES OF UPPER LOWS IN THE SOUTHEAST STATES
OVER THE NEXT 5 TO 7 DAYS. THE NET RESULT OF THIS WILL BE TO
GRADUALLY INCREASE DAILY THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE...WHILE KEEPING
TEMPERATURES AT OR BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS. PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES ARE FORECAST TO GRADUALLY INCREASE FROM 1.5 TO 1.75 INCH
RANGE EARLY IN THE PERIOD...TO NEAR 2 INCHES BY THE END OF NEXT
WEEK. THIS EASILY JUSTIFIES CONTINUING AT LEAST 30-40 PERCENT POPS
BEYOND THIS WEEKEND AND THROUGH THE BULK OF THE UPCOMING WORK
WEEK. THERE`S A POTENTIAL OF A FRONTAL PASSAGE AS WE GET TO FRIDAY
OR SATURDAY OF NEXT WEEK (WITH THE GFS BEING A BIT MORE AGGRESSIVE
WITH THAT FEATURE). SUCH A FRONT WOULD SIGNAL THE LIKELY PEAK OF
CONVECTIVE COVERAGE...TO BE FOLLOWED BY A RETURN TO DRIER WEATHER.

/61/


&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF DISCUSSION.

LOW TO MEDIUM CONFIDENCE OF MVFR CONDS DUE TO FOG FROM 09Z THRU
12Z...AND HANDLED WITH TEMPO GROUP. WINDS WILL BECOME EASTERLY
ARND 5 KTS AFTER 14Z AS A SFC HIGH BUILDS INTO EASTERN GEORGIA.
LITTLE OR NO CONVECTION EXPECTED THRU 20Z...BUT MODELS SHOW
CONVECTION DEVELOPING OVER EAST ALABAMA IN THE LATE AFTN AND
CONTINUING INTO THE EVENING.

58/ROSE


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. RH VALUES WILL REMAIN ABOVE CRITICAL THRESHOLD
VALUES. NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

87

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     71  90  69  86  68 /  10  40  30  40  20
ANNISTON    72  90  70  85  69 /  10  40  30  40  20
BIRMINGHAM  74  93  72  87  70 /  10  30  30  30  20
TUSCALOOSA  74  96  72  91  71 /  10  20  20  30  20
CALERA      73  92  71  87  71 /  10  40  30  40  20
AUBURN      73  91  70  86  70 /  10  50  30  40  20
MONTGOMERY  74  95  72  90  71 /  10  40  30  40  20
TROY        70  93  71  88  69 /  10  50  30  50  20

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$



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