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Area Forecast Discussion

154
FXUS64 KBMX 252330
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
630 PM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 00Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

SLIGHT MID-LEVEL HEIGHT RISES ARE INDICATIVE OF A LESS FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT FOR SHOWER DEVELOPMENT THAN YESTERDAY...BUT AFTER A
SLOW START...SHOWERS ARE FINALLY STARTING TO DEVELOP NEAR THE
I-85 CORRIDOR. TO THE NORTH...SUBSIDENCE AND NORTHERLY FLOW HAS
BROUGHT IN DRIER AIR ESPECIALLY ABOVE 800MB. MAINLY ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS WILL REMAIN CONFINED TO THE SOUTHEAST
PART OF THE CWA THROUGH THE EVENING.

TEMPERATURES OVER THE WEEKEND WILL BE ON THE RISE AS WESTERLY
BOUNDARY-LAYER WINDS BRING IN 850MB TEMPS OF 20-21C...RESULTING IN
AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE MID 90S FOR MANY AREAS BY SUNDAY. RESIDUAL
DRY AIR ALOFT WILL COMBINE WITH MID-LEVEL HEIGHT RISES TO
SQUELCH RAIN CHANCES...AND HAVE REMOVED ALL MENTION OF RAIN FOR
BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

MODELS AGREE THAT A LARGE TROUGH WILL DEVELOP OVER THE EASTERN
HALF OF THE COUNTRY BY MONDAY...WHICH WILL DRIVE A STRONG FRONT
SOUTHWARD. MOISTURE POOLING AHEAD OF THE FRONT MAY LEAD TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS...POSSIBLY ORGANIZING INTO A LINE AS
25-35 KT 500MB WINDS OVERSPREAD THE REGION MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CLEAR THROUGH THE CWA WITH COOLER AND DRIER
CONDITIONS FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL TAKE
SEVERAL DAYS TO MOISTEN BEHIND THE FRONT...AND RAIN CHANCES MAY
NOT RETURN UNTIL FRIDAY.

87/GRANTHAM

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION.

CENTRAL ALABAMA IS SPLIT ROUGHLY IN HALF FROM SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHEAST BY A REMNANT STATIONARY FRONT. TO THE NORTH OF THIS
BOUNDARY...DO NOT EXPECT FOG TO BE AN ISSUE OVERNIGHT. SOME LIGHT
MVFR FOG COULD DEVELOP SOUTH OF THE FRONT AT MGM AND TOI BEFORE
SUNRISE SINCE BETTER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS AT THOSE LOCATIONS.
ANY LIGHT FOG SHOULD BURN OFF QUICKLY SATURDAY MORNING.

77/GLEASON

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$






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