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Area Forecast Discussion

854
FXUS64 KBMX 200235
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
935 PM CDT SAT APR 19 2014

.UPDATE...
EVENING UPDATE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

UPPER LOW HAS NOW PUSHED OFF THE GA/SC COAST...BUT RESIDUAL
LOW/MID CLOUD COVER CONTINUES ACROSS EAST CENTRAL ALABAMA. WINDS
CONTINUE TO BE A TAD GUSTY AT TIMES IN THE EAST AS WELL WITH GUSTS
UP TO 20 MPH. IT LOOKS AS THOUGH SOME CLOUD COVER WILL PERSIST IN
THE EAST/SOUTHEAST THRU THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND COULD HAMPER TEMPS
FROM FALLING QUITE AS LOW IN THESE AREAS. NOT ANTICIPATING ANY FOG
DEVELOPMENT AT THE MOMENT DUE TO THE WINDS AND CLOUD COVER IN THE
EAST. EVEN THOUGH SKIES SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR IN THE
WEST...CONDITIONS SHOULD BE DRY ENOUGH TO PREVENT FOG FORMATION.
MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO SKY COVER AND OVERNIGHT LOWS...BUT
STILL LOOK FOR LOW TEMPS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S.
UPDATES ARE OUT.

19

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION.

BKN VFR CLOUD DECK CONTINUES TO STREAM NORTH TO SOUTH ACROSS EASTERN
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL ALABAMA. DO NOT EXPECT A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF
CLEARING OVERNIGHT AT LOCATIONS WHERE CLOUDS ARE STILL
PROMINENT...ANB...ASN...MGM...AND TOI. MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATING
CIGS WILL LOWER ACROSS THE EAST TONIGHT. NOT CONFIDENT IN HOW LOW
BUT WILL INTRODUCE MVFR CIGS AT MGM AND TOI FOR NOW...WITH LIGHT
FOG. TOI WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED CLOSELY AS IT SAW VERY LITTLE
SUNLIGHT TODAY...AND COULD SEE VIS DROP MUCH LOWER LATE TONIGHT. AT
BHM...EET...AND TCL...CLEAR SKIES WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

UNCERTAINTY IS HIGHER DUE TO WIND SPEEDS OVERNIGHT. NEAR TERM
GUIDANCE IS NOT HANDLING THE CURRENT GUSTY WINDS WELL...AND BELIEVE
GUIDANCE IS DIMINISHING WINDS TOO QUICKLY TONIGHT. WILL HOLD ON TO
GUSTY WINDS FOR SEVERAL HOURS THIS EVENING...AND MAINTAIN 4-8KTS
OVERNIGHT AT TERMINALS. THE STRONGER WINDS COULD PREVENT VIS FROM
LOWERING BEYOND MVFR.

MVFR CIGS WILL HANG AROUND MGM AND TOI TOMORROW...WITH CLEAR SKIES
ELSEWHERE. WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE EAST AT 5-10KTS.

14

NOTE...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILL BE ISSUING SEASONAL
TERMINAL FORECASTS FOR THE TALLADEGA MUNICIPAL AIRPORT (KASN) IN
TALLADEGA...ALABAMA. THE FORECASTS WILL BE ISSUED FROM APRIL 20TH
00Z THROUGH AT LEAST MAY 8TH 00Z. DUE TO THE LIMITED AVAILABILITY
OF OBSERVATIONS...KASN TAF WILL HAVE AMD NOT SKED APPENDED TO THE
END OF THE FORECAST.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 349 PM CDT SAT APR 19 2014/

THIS AFTERNOON...CLOUDINESS WAS NOTED ON SATELLITE WRAPPING
AROUND THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ACROSS SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND
NORTHEAST FLORIDA. AS IT HAS PROGRESSED EASTWARD TODAY AND WOBBLED
SOME. CLOUDINESS HAS FLUCTUATED AS A RESULT WHICH HAS PLAYED
HAVOC ON TODAY`S DAYTIME TEMPERATURES. RIDGING BUILDS TONIGHT INTO
SUNDAY AS THE LOW PROGRESSES INTO THE ATLANTIC OFF OF THE EAST
COAST. THIS WILL GIVE WAY TO A MOSTLY SUNNY SKY FOR EASTER
SUNDAY...WITH TEMPERATURES ABOUT AS CLOSE TO NORMAL ACROSS THE
AREA AS YOU`RE GONNA GET. SO IT LOOKS LIKE A BEAUTIFUL DAY IS
SHAPING UP. FOR MONDAY...LOOK FOR A SLIGHTLY MODERATING AIR MASS
AS TEMPERATURES GO UP A TAD FROM SUNDAY WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
INCREASING A LITTLE AND DEW POINTS TRYING TO RISE IN RESPONSE.

ON TUESDAY WE WILL SEE OUR NEXT RAIN MAKER/FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVE
INTO THE STATE. FORECAST THINKING HAS CHANGED LITTLE ON THIS
SYSTEM WITH MOISTURE INCREASING THE DEW POINTS ENOUGH FOR JUST
ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE FRONTAL FORCING BUT
NOT LOOKING AT TOO MUCH IN THE WAY OF SEVERE AT THIS TIME. THE
MAIN ENERGY WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE WELL REMOVED MOVING ACROSS
THE NORTHERN PART OF THE UNITED STATES...AND NOT NEARLY AS
IMPRESSIVE ACROSS THE SOUTH. THE HEAT OF THE DAY WILL HELP TO GET
SOME UPDRAFTS FOR SOME RUMBLES AND SOME RAIN TO WATER THE PLANTS.
THE RIDGE POST FRONT WILL BE SITUATED MORE ACROSS THE NORTHERN
UNITED STATES AND WILL PROGRESSIVELY MOVE EASTWARD BY THURSDAY. SO
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL HOLD SLIGHTLY LOWER
TEMPERATURES AS THE FLOW WILL BE NORTHERLY ON WEDNESDAY.
HOWEVER...BY THURSDAY...AS THE RIDGE MOVES EAST...THE LOW LEVEL
FLOW WILL TURN BACK TO THE SOUTH AHEAD OF ANOTHER FRONT. THIS ONE
AGAIN HAS THE MAIN DYNAMICS TO THE NORTH AND IT MAY FIZZLE OUT AS
IT REACHES THE AREA BUT IT WILL BRING ANOTHER OPPORTUNITY FOR
CLOUDS AND RAIN FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY TOWARD THE END OF OUR
EXTENDED PERIOD.

08/MK

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     48  75  51  77  57 /  10   0   0  10  30
ANNISTON    50  74  50  77  57 /  10   0   0  10  20
BIRMINGHAM  48  75  52  77  58 /   0   0   0  10  30
TUSCALOOSA  49  77  52  78  59 /   0   0   0  20  30
CALERA      49  75  52  77  58 /   0   0   0  10  20
AUBURN      51  71  49  76  57 /  10   0   0   0  10
MONTGOMERY  52  75  52  79  59 /  10   0   0  10  10
TROY        52  73  51  78  58 /  10   0   0   0  10

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$







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