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Area Forecast Discussion

137
FXUS64 KBMX 051125
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
625 AM CDT SAT SEP 5 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 12Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

A BROAD UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL SLIDE WESTWARD FROM THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC AND ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST THIS WEEKEND...RESULTING IN
INCREASED POPS ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA. IMPULSES WILL ROTATE
AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE LOW...AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORM WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH DAY. AS THE LOW ROTATES ACROSS
SOUTHEAST CENTRAL ALABAMA EARLY NEXT WEEK...TS COVERAGE AREA WILL
FLUCTUATE DEPENDING ON EXACT TRACK OF THE LOW AND WHERE A MID
LEVEL TROUGH AXIS SETS UP. GENERALLY...BETTER COVERAGE WILL BE IN
THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST EACH DAY.

MOISTURE CONTINUES TO INCREASE WITH PW VALUES NEAR 2 INCHES LATE
IN THE FORECAST PERIOD...AS A MID LEVEL TROUGH AND SURFACE FRONT
APPROACH FROM THE WEST. AS MOISTURE POOLS AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...WILL MAINTAIN INCREASED POPS FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. WITH
INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND POPS...HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 80S AND LOWS
IN THE 65-72F RANGE. CURRENTLY...LOOKING AT A FRONTAL PASSAGE FOR
THE END OF NEXT WEEK...WITH COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS BEHIND THE
FRONT.

14

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF DISCUSSION.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE ENOUGH TO WARRANT
INCLUSION OF VCTS FOR ALL TERMINALS. STORMS SHOULD INITIALLY
DEVELOP ACROSS EASTERN ALABAMA AND WORK WESTWARD INTO THE LATE
AFTERNOON HOURS. AMENDMENTS MAY BE NEEDED BASED ON WHERE THE
STORMS INITIATE AFTER 18Z THIS AFTERNOON. STORM COVERAGE SHOULD
DIMINISH THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS TONIGHT. SURFACE WINDS WILL
PREVAIL FROM THE EAST TO EAST-SOUTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON AND REMAIN
LIGHT.

56/GDG

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
THE WEEKEND...WITH THE BETTER CHANCES IN THE EAST EACH DAY. RH
VALUES WILL REMAIN ABOVE CRITICAL THRESHOLD VALUES. NO FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

14

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     90  69  86  68  86 /  40  20  30  20  10
ANNISTON    90  70  86  69  86 /  40  30  30  20  10
BIRMINGHAM  93  72  88  70  88 /  30  20  30  20  10
TUSCALOOSA  96  72  92  71  90 /  30  30  20  20  20
CALERA      92  71  88  71  88 /  40  30  30  20  20
AUBURN      91  70  85  70  86 /  50  40  40  20  30
MONTGOMERY  95  72  90  71  90 /  40  40  40  20  30
TROY        93  71  87  69  88 /  50  40  40  20  30

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$



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