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Area Forecast Discussion

878
FXUS64 KBMX 312122
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
322 PM CST SAT JAN 31 2015

.DISCUSSION...

HIGH CLOUDS ARE STARTING TO MOVE INTO THE REGION...INDICATIVE OF
AN APPROACHING STORM SYSTEM IN THIS CASE. THE BOUNDARY LAYER
REMAINS VERY DRY THIS AFTERNOON WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 10S AND 20S.
THAT WILL BEGIN TO CHANGE TONIGHT AS RETURN FLOW DEVELOPS AS A
TROUGH AMPLIFIES ACROSS THE PLAINS. FEEL PRETTY GOOD ABOUT MOST
AREAS SEEING RAIN BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH SOME HI-RES
MODELS ARE A BIT SKIMPY ON THE INTENSITY AND COVERAGE IN THE
SIMULATED REFLECTIVITY PRODUCT. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THE ANTECEDENT
DRYNESS COULD LIMIT SHOWER DEVELOPMENT UNTIL STRONG FORCING
ARRIVES ALONG THE COLD FRONT TOMORROW NIGHT. HAVE BACKED OFF TO
80 PERCENT POP AREAWIDE FOR TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND KEPT 80-90 POP
FOR TOMORROW NIGHT.

THE COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH MONDAY MORNING WITH BRISK
NORTHWEST WINDS AND TEMPERATURES NOT EXPECTED TO RISE MUCH THROUGH
THE DAYLIGHT HOURS. STRONG COLD ADVECTION WILL KEEP SOME AREAS
ACROSS THE NORTH IN THE UPPER 30S. WE ARE ANTICIPATING A COLD
MORNING ON TUESDAY WITH LOWS WELL INTO THE 20S AS HIGH PRESSURE
SETTLES INTO THE REGION. DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
INTO WEDNESDAY...BUT THIS IS WHERE MODELS BEGIN TO DISAGREE.

A SOUTHERN STREAM WAVE WILL BEGIN TO EJECT BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY AS A NORTHERN STREAM WAVE DIGS ACROSS THE PLAINS. THE GFS
AND GEM ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT...SHOWING FAIRLY DECENT HEIGHT
FALLS IN THE BASE OF THE TROUGH AS THE TWO SHORTWAVES INTERACT.
THIS WOULD LEAD TO WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION THURSDAY
INTO EARLY FRIDAY. ON THE OTHER HAND THE ECMWF SHOWS LITTLE TO NO
INTERACTION BETWEEN THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAMS...AND NO
PRECIP ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. MODELS SEEM TO HAVE A TENDENCY TO
ERR ON THE SIDE OF BEING TOO SUPPRESSED THIS FAR OUT...SO FOR NOW
THE FORECAST LEANS TOWARD THE WETTER AND MORE AGGRESSIVE SOLUTION.
AN ARCTIC AIRMASS WILL BE MOVING SOUTHWARD DURING THIS TIMEFRAME
AS WELL...SO WILL NEED TO MONITOR THE TIMING OF THE COLD PUSH TO
SEE IF THIS ENDS UP BEING A SNOW THREAT. IT SEEMS REASONABLE TO
INCLUDE AT LEAST SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WITH A RAIN/SNOW MIX ACROSS
THE NORTH FOR THURSDAY NIGHT.

87/GRANTHAM

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD ACROSS CENTRAL
ALABAMA...ALTHOUGH CONDITIONS SHOULD STAY VFR THROUGH AT LEAST THE
NEXT 15 OR SO HOURS. COMPUTER MODEL MOISTURE PROFILES DO SUGGEST
THAT SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL START TO WORK ITS WAY INTO THE
AREA EITHER LATE TONIGHT OR EARLY SUNDAY...MOST LIKELY FROM SOUTH
TO NORTH. I`VE INCLUDED A LOWER CEILING AT MGM AND TOI TO ACCOUNT
FOR THIS. I DO BELIEVE LOWER CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY WILL NOT
START TO AFFECT TERMINALS NORTH OF THOSE TWO UNTIL RIGHT AT THE
END OF THIS 24 HOUR FORECAST. THERE`S LIKELY GOING TO BE SOME
LIGHT RAIN MOVING IN FROM THE WEST AS WELL. WOULDN`T SURPRISE ME
IF CONDITIONS WENT FROM VFR TO IFR RATHER QUICKLY AROUND 18Z
SUNDAY...AS THE RAIN SHIELD FURTHER INVADES CENTRAL ALABAMA.

/61/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     35  57  36  41  22 /   0  80  90  10   0
ANNISTON    38  58  37  43  24 /   0  80  90  10   0
BIRMINGHAM  40  59  36  42  25 /   0  80  90  10   0
TUSCALOOSA  42  61  38  44  25 /  10  80  90  10   0
CALERA      41  59  37  44  27 /   0  80  90  10   0
AUBURN      41  60  42  47  27 /   0  80  90  10   0
MONTGOMERY  40  65  43  49  27 /   0  80  90  10   0
TROY        38  64  44  51  26 /   0  80  90  10   0

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

87/61





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