National Weather Service Weather Forecast Office

Area Forecast Discussion

190
FXUS64 KBMX 200309
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1009 PM CDT WED JUN 19 2013

.DISCUSSION...

MOST OF CENTRAL ALABAMA IS NOW UNDER FAIR SKIES...AS MOST SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS EITHER DISSIPATED OR MOVED SOUTH OF
THE CWA. THE OLD COLD FRONT IS BECOMING LESS AND LESS
PRONOUNCED BASED ON SURFACE OBS...AS WINDS HAVE BECOME CALM FOR
MANY LOCATIONS AND DEWPOINTS NEAR 70 DEGREES HAVE RETURNED.
HOWEVER...THE KBMX 00Z RAOB DOES INDICATE THAT THE OVERALL
MOISTURE PROFILE HAS DECREASED FROM THE 12Z RAOB THIS MORNING WITH
PWAT OF 1.17 AS OPPOSED TO 1.62 THIS MORNING. THE CLOUD COVER ASSOCIATED
WITH THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTHWARD TOWARD THE GULF
COAST LATER ON TONIGHT. THE DRIER AIR WILL HELP TEMPERATURES COOL
A FEW DEGREES LOWER THAN THEY WERE LAST NIGHT...BUT PERSISTENT
MOISTURE AT THE SURFACE DUE TO THE RAINFALL OVER THE PAST COUPLE
OF DAYS MAY MITIGATE THE COOLING SOMEWHAT. THE INCREASED MOISTURE
COULD ALSO BRING THE CHANCE OF PATCHY FOG AS TEMPERATURES APPROACH THE
DEWPOINT AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. THE BEST CHANCE OF ANY PATCHY FOG
WILL STILL BE ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES JUST BEHIND THE
COLD FRONT...AND HAVE LEFT MENTION OF FOG IN THE FORECAST FOR
THOSE LOCATIONS. I HAVE OVERALL ADJUSTED DEWPOINTS HIGHER BASED ON
OBSERVATION TRENDS AND RAISED LOWS BY A DEGREE OR TWO FOR MOST
LOCATIONS. SOME OF THE COOLER VALLEY LOCATIONS COULD STILL DROP TO
THE MID 60S...BUT MOST LOCATIONS WILL LIKELY OBSERVE UPPER 60S TO
NEAR 70 DEGREES FOR LOWS TONIGHT. UPDATES ARE OUT.

56/GDG

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION.

SHOWERS HAVE DISSIPATED THIS EVENING ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA.
WATCHING ISOLATED PULSE LIKE ACTIVITY TO THE NORTH DEVELOP AND
SLOWLY PUSH SOUTHWARD. EXPECT IT TO DISSIPATE BEFORE AFFECTING
NORTHERN TERMINALS TONIGHT.

SURFACE FRONT IS NEAR MONTGOMERY...WHICH HAS A NORTHERLY WIND BUT
DEWPOINTS REMAIN NEAR 70 DEGREES. DO NOT EXPECT MUCH SOUTHWARD
PROGRESS OF THE FRONT TONIGHT. NEAR AND ALONG THIS BOUNDARY...FOG
AND LOW CLOUDS ARE POSSIBLE AFTER 06Z. CONFIDENCE IS HIGHEST AT
TOI...WHICH RECEIVED RAINFALL THIS AFTERNOON. MGM...ANB...AND TCL
COULD ALSO SEE MVFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT WITH LIGHT PATCHY FOG
POSSIBLE.

LOWER VIS AND CIGS WILL LIFT WITH SUNRISE THURSDAY MORNING. EXPECT
SCT TO BKN 3KFT CIGS ACROSS THE SOUTH WHERE THE FRONT WILL REMAIN.
BEST CHANCES FOR A SHOWER OR TWO WILL BE NEAR TOI. ELSEWHERE...CIGS
WILL BE SCT AROUND 3KFT WITH EASTERLY WINDS AT 5-6KTS.

14

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 305 PM CDT WED JUN 19 2013/

LOOKING AT ONGOING CONDITIONS ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA...A MID LEVEL
SHORTWAVE HAS HELPED SPARK A LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS JUST
SOUTH OF THE SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEASTERN
COUNTIES. NOT EXPECTING ANY SEVERE WEATHER WITH THIS ACTIVITY...JUST
BRIEF HEAVY RAIN AND LIGHTNING. ELSEWHERE...DRY AIR CONTINUES TO
SLOWLY FILTER IN BEHIND THE BOUNDARY. IT`S NOT A SIGNIFICANT DRYING
AS DEW POINTS HAVE FALLEN INTO THE MID/UPPER 60S AS COMPARED TO THE
LOW 70S...BUT NONETHELESS IT DOES MAKE IT FEEL JUST A LITTLE MORE
BEARABLE OUTSIDE.

FOR TONIGHT...COULD STILL SEE AN ISO SHOWER OR TWO LINGER INTO THE
EVENING HOURS MAINLY SOUTH OF I-85. WITH SOME RESIDUAL MOISTURE
STILL IN PLACE JUST BEHIND THE FRONT...PATCHY FOG AND/OR SOME LOW
CLOUDS COULD REDEVELOP ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST AFTER MIDNIGHT.
OVERNIGHT TEMPS SHOULD GENERALLY BE A COUPLE DEGREES COOLER THAN
LAST NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE MID 60S NORTH TO AROUND 70 SOUTH. WEAK
TROUGHING WILL REMAIN OVER THE EASTERN CONUS ON THURSDAY AND THERE
COULD BE JUST ENOUGH MOISTURE IN PLACE FOR SOME ISO AFTN CONVECTION.
THEREFORE WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE POPS AREA WIDE FOR THURSDAY.

OVERALL PATTERN REMAINS LARGELY UNCHANGED THRU THE REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD. MODELS STILL INDICATE A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
IN THE UPPER LEVELS OVER THE CENTRAL GULF COAST BY FRIDAY. THIS
WEAKNESS...BETWEEN THE RIDGE IN TEXAS AND THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
RIDGE...IS PROGGED TO RESIDE OVER THE AREA THRU AT LEAST THE
WEEKEND. THIS COMBINED WITH SOUTHEASTERLY SFC FLOW WILL MEAN
INCREASED RAIN CHANCES IN THE FRI-SUN TIMEFRAME. AS WE MOVE INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK...RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE AS SFC FLOW BECOMES
MORE SOUTHERLY. RAIN/CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP TEMPS AT OR JUST BELOW
NORMAL.

19

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     65  89  65  87  65 /  10  20  20  20  20
ANNISTON    68  89  68  87  67 /  10  20  20  20  20
BIRMINGHAM  70  89  69  88  69 /  10  20  20  20  20
TUSCALOOSA  69  92  69  90  71 /  10  20  20  20  20
CALERA      68  89  69  87  70 /  10  20  20  30  20
AUBURN      69  87  68  87  68 /  20  30  20  40  20
MONTGOMERY  70  91  71  90  72 /  20  30  20  40  20
TROY        68  90  70  89  71 /  20  40  20  40  20

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$