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Area Forecast Discussion

827
FXUS64 KBMX 020751
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
251 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.DISCUSSION...

A DECENT VARIATION IN DEWPOINTS THIS MORNING ACROSS CENTRAL
ALABAMA...LOCATIONS NEAR THE I-85 CORRIDOR ARE STILL IN THE MUGGY
70S WITH A FEW LOCATIONS IN THE NORTHEAST IN THE MUCH MORE PLEASANT
UPPER 50S. DEWPOINTS HAVE INCREASED IN A FEW LOCATIONS WITH THE
BOUNDARY LAYER DECOUPLING TONIGHT. CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND
RAP UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATES TWO PROMINENT FEATURES...AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS WITH A LONGWAVE TROUGH ACROSS
EASTERN CANADA INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEASTERN U.S. AT THE
SURFACE...THE FRONT IS NOW ALONG THE GULF COAST BUT AS MENTIONED
EARLIER...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE AREA. LAST NIGHTS 00Z BMX SOUNDING OBSERVED 0.74
INCHES OF PW WHICH IS STILL WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR
AND EXPECT THESE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS. PW VALUES WILL REMAIN MUCH BELOW NORMAL TODAY...BUT A FEW
AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL ALABAMA WHERE MOISTURE IS A BIT MORE ELEVATED
CLOSER TO THE FRONT.

UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE EARLY IN THE WORK WEEK
AND HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RISE INTO THE MID TO UPPER 90S. MOISTURE
WILL RETURN TO THE AREA LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY WITH SOUTHERLY
FLOW EXPECTED. PW VALUES WILL INCREASE INTO THE 1.5-2.0 INCH RANGE
WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES RETURNING TO THE FORECAST ON WEDNESDAY.
TROUGHS EMBEDDED IN THE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO
DIVE FURTHER TO THE SOUTH LATE IN THE WEEK AS THE UPPER LEVEL
PATTERN BECOMES MORE AMPLIFIED. THEREFORE...HAVE INCREASED POPS IN
THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST AND HAVE LOWERED HIGH
TEMPERATURES DURING THIS TIME PERIOD AS WELL TO ACCOUNT FOR THE
HIGHER PRECIPITATION CHANCES.

05/MA

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF DISCUSSION.

GENERALLY A VFR FORECAST...ADDED A TEMPO FOR MVFR BR AT TOI AROUND
SUNRISE. OTHERWISE...NOT MANY CLOUDS. THE AIRMASS OVER CENTRAL
ALABAMA BECOMES DRIER AND MOST OF THE STORMS SHOULD REMAIN SOUTH
OF TOI/MGM. A FEW 4-8K FT CLOUDS AND SOME CIRRUS. WINDS WILL HAVE
AN EASTERLY COMPONENT EARLY IN THE DAY THEN SWING AROUND TO NORTH
NORTHWEST...5-8KTS.

75


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA OVER THE
WEEKEND...EXCEPT FOR A FEW SHOWERS OR STORMS ALONG AND SOUTH OF
I-85. MINIMUM RH VALUES THROUGH TUESDAY WILL BE IN THE 25-35
PERCENT RANGE BUT EXPECT WINDS WILL BE WELL BELOW CRITERIA DURING
THIS TIME.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     95  66  95  69  97 /   0   0  10   0  10
ANNISTON    94  66  94  69  96 /  10   0  10   0  10
BIRMINGHAM  95  70  95  72  97 /   0   0  10   0  10
TUSCALOOSA  97  69  98  72  99 /   0   0  10   0  10
CALERA      94  67  94  66  95 /  10   0  10   0  10
AUBURN      93  72  94  72  96 /  10  10  10   0  10
MONTGOMERY  97  72  97  72  98 /  10  10  10   0  10
TROY        96  70  96  71  96 /  20  10  10   0  10

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$



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