National Weather Service Weather Forecast Office

Area Forecast Discussion

446
FXUS64 KBMX 030143
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
843 PM CDT WED OCT 2 2013

.UPDATE...
EVENING UPDATE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

AN UPPER LOW WAS LOCATED NEAR THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL THIS EVENING.
AN EXTENSIVE AREA OF MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS EXTENDED SOUTHWARD
FROM THE UPPER LOW AND ACROSS ALABAMA. THIS TYPE OF SYSTEM WOULD
NORMALLY PRODUCE SOME PRECIPITATION ON IT SOUTHERN PERIPHERY...BUT
A RELATIVELY DRY EAST FLOW BELOW 5000 FEET AGL IS KEEPING RAIN
FREE CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA. DOPPLER RADAR IS PICKING UP SOME
LIGHT ECHOES ACROSS WEST ALABAMA...BUT THE RAIN IS LIKELY
EVAPORATING BEFORE IT REACHES THE SURFACE. MAIN CHANGE TO FORECAST
WAS TO INCREASE CLOUD COVER OVERNIGHT...WITH THE CLOUDS KEEPING
TEMPERATURES WARMER THIS EVENING.


58/ROSE



&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION.

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT ALL SITES THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
CANNOT TOTALLY RULE OUT A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS SOMEWHERE BUT
THE LOWER PARTS OF THE ATMOSPHERE SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE RELATIVELY
DRY WITH THE BEST MOISTURE REMAINING ACROSS MISSISSIPPI.

87/GRANTHAM


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 655 PM CDT WED OCT 2 2013/

IN THE SHORT TERM...WE HAVE BEEN AND WILL CONTINUE TO BE TEASED BY
SHOWERY PRECIPITATION...BOTH TO OUR SOUTH AND TO OUR WEST.
RAINFALL WITHIN THE CONFINES OF THE CENTRAL ALABAMA FORECAST
AREA HAS BEEN MEAGER...AND I DO EXPECT THAT TO CONTINUE FOR THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. WILL GO WITH 10 PERCENT OR LESS ON POPS
THROUGH FRIDAY.

THE ONE-TWO PUNCH OF A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE AND COLD FRONT PASSAGE
LOOMS IN THE LONGER TERM. AS EXPECTED...MODEL GLOBAL GUIDANCE IS
SOMEWHAT SUSPECT IN THE VARIOUS WAYS THEY HANDLE THIS SYSTEM. THE
12Z GFS IS ESPECIALLY UNTRUSTWORTHY...AS A DECIDEDLY STRONGER AND
MORE EASTERN OUTLIER. I THEREFORE USED THE TIMING FROM THE WPC
DAYS 3-5 CHARTS AS A GUIDE...BLENDED WITH SOME THOUGHTS FROM THE
12Z EUROPEAN MODEL AS FILLER. THIS PLACES THE HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES
ASSOCIATED WITH THE INITIAL TROPICAL MOISTURE SURGE IN THE
SOUTHERN CWA SATURDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY THE BEST CHANCE OF RAIN
ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE IN THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE
AREA ON SUNDAY. EVEN IF THE CARIBBEAN/EVENTUAL GULF SYSTEM
DOESN`T DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE...IT WILL STILL CARRY LOTS
OF TROPICAL MOISTURE INTO THE GULF COAST STATES OVER THE WEEKEND.
THAT BRINGS THE POTENTIAL OF HEAVY RAINFALL INTO THE PICTURE.
ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IN A POSSIBLE FLOODING SITUATION IS STILL
QUITE LOW...I THINK IT HAS GOTTEN FAR ENOUGH ABOVE ZERO AT THIS
POINT TO MENTION IN THE HWO.

/61/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     62  83  62  85  63 /  10  10  10   0  10
ANNISTON    62  83  63  84  65 /   0   0  10   0  10
BIRMINGHAM  65  84  66  85  67 /  10  10  10   0  10
TUSCALOOSA  66  85  67  87  68 /  10  10  10   0  10
CALERA      65  85  66  87  67 /  10  10  10   0  10
AUBURN      63  84  64  85  66 /   0  10  10   0  10
MONTGOMERY  65  87  66  88  68 /  10  10  10   0  10
TROY        65  86  66  87  67 /  10  10  10  10  10

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$