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Area Forecast Discussion

050
FXUS64 KBMX 281132
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
632 AM CDT TUE APR 28 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 12Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

THE COOL AND DRY AIRMASS REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA
EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH MAINLY 40S NORTH TO THE 50S SOUTH OBSERVED
THROUGH 3AM. PWATS ON THE 00Z SOUNDING FROM YESTERDAY EVENING
MEASURED A MEAGER 0.55 INCHES. WE`LL HAVE TO MOISTEN UP
SIGNIFICANTLY DURING THE DAY TODAY BEFORE ANY PRECIP IS EVEN ALLOWED
TO REACH THE SURFACE. SO THE QUESTION TO ANSWER IS WHEN EXACTLY WILL
THE ATMOSPHERE BEGIN TO MOISTEN? LOOKING OUT THE WINDOW THIS
MORNING...A LARGE CLUSTER OF SHOWERS AND STORMS CONTINUES ACROSS THE
CENTRAL GULF COAST. THOSE STORMS ACTUALLY ORIGINATED FROM ALONG THE
LOUISIANA COASTLINE YESTERDAY AFTERNOON AND ARE CONTINUING TO
PROGRESS EASTWARD ALONG THE NOW STALLED SURFACE FRONT. THAT
CONVECTION HAS CUT US OFF FROM ANY FURTHER DEVELOPMENT EARLY THIS
MORNING...AND I`VE TAKEN OUT ALL MENTION OF POPS THROUGH 7AM. THE
LATEST TRENDS THIS MORNING HOLD OFF ON ANY WIDESPREAD DEVELOPMENT
OF SHOWERS AND STORMS UNTIL LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE
EVENING HOURS. THE HRRR FOR LATER TODAY IS CERTAINLY NOT VERY
BULLISH AT ALL ON SHOWER DEVELOPMENT...WITH ONLY SCATTERED SHOWERS
ACROSS OUR SOUTHWEST COUNTIES AT BEST BY 21Z. THEREFORE...I`VE
LOWERED POPS A GOOD BIT FOR THE NORTHERN HALF OF CENTRAL ALABAMA
TO ONLY CHANCE...WITH LIKELY POPS FOR THE SOUTHERN HALF. THIS MAY
NEED TO BE LOWERED EVEN FURTHER LATER ON TODAY BASED ON THE LATEST
TRENDS. SO...THE BOTTOM LINE IS THAT MOST OF THE DAY TODAY LOOKS
MUCH DRIER THAN WAS PREVIOUSLY ANTICIPATED.

AS THE VERY DYNAMIC CLOSED LOW MOVES EASTWARD ACROSS THE ARKLAMISS
LATER TODAY...ISENTROPIC LIFT AND UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS SHOULD
FINALLY HELP TO TRIGGER NUMEROUS SHOWERS WITH A CHANCE FOR A FEW
STORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES LATER ON THIS EVENING. MEANWHILE
THE SURFACE LOW ALONG THE GULF COAST WILL REMAIN WELL TO OUR
SOUTH...WITH ALL OF CENTRAL ALABAMA IN A MORE STABLE EASTERLY
SURFACE FLOW. BEFORE THE CLOSED LOW BECOMES MORE OF AN OPEN WAVE ON
WEDNESDAY...WE COULD SEE THE DEVELOPMENT OF ADDITIONAL SHOWERS DUE
TO WHAT APPEARS TO BE A TROWAL SETTING UP ON THE NORTHWEST SIDE OF
THE DEEPENING SURFACE LOW ACROSS FLORIDA. IF THOSE SHOWERS AND
CLOUDS LINGER...WE COULD BE LOOKING AT A FAIRLY COOL DAY FOR MOST
LOCATIONS WITH TEMPERATURES NOT GETTING OUT OF THE 50S FOR OUR
EASTERN COUNTIES. SOUTHERN AND WESTERN COUNTIES WILL SEE THE BETTER
SHOT OF RISING INTO THE MID AND UPPER 60S.

THE DEEPENING LONGWAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS IS STILL
EXPECTED ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE ON
THURSDAY DUE TO A POTENT JET STREAK AND SHORTWAVE PUSHING SOUTHWARD
INTO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. COOLER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO FILTER
SOUTHWARD AS WELL...AND WIDESPREAD 40S ARE NOW EXPECTED FRIDAY
MORNING. I WOULDN`T BE SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW UPPER 30S IN THOSE
COOLER VALLEY LOCATIONS IF THE CLOUDS ARE ALLOWED TO CLEAR. A
PROLONGED PERIOD OF DRY DAYS ARE BEING ADVERTISED IN THE LONG TERM
ON FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND AS NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT BEGINS OVER
THE SOUTHEAST. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS ALSO BEING ADVERTISED TO HELP
MODERATE TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. IT APPEARS THAT WE
SHOULDN`T SEE ANY SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL CHANCES AT LEAST THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

56/GDG

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF DISCUSSION.

CONTINUED TO BACK OFF ON THE START OF RAINFALL FOR THE TAF SITES
THIS AFTERNOON. THE BIG COMPLEX OF SHOWERS AND STORMS THAT WAS
ALONG THE GULF COAST THIS EVENING HAS STARTED MOVING EAST AND WILL
SLOWLY ALLOW THE RETURN OF MOISTURE INTO THE AREA LATE AFTERNOON.
WE WILL SEE THAT RETURN OF MOISTURE IN AT TOI AND MGM BY 20Z AND
THE NORTHERN SITES AFTER 22Z. CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE THROUGH
THE EVENING AS THE RAIN BECOMES MORE WIDESPREAD AFTER SUNSET.
THERE COULD BE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS IN THE SOUTH BUT WILL BE
ISOLATED IN NATURE SO JUST WENT WITH VCTS AT TOI AND MGM.

16

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     69  52  60  47  68 /  40  90  70  20  20
ANNISTON    70  53  60  48  68 /  40  90  70  20  20
BIRMINGHAM  69  54  61  49  69 /  40  90  60  10  10
TUSCALOOSA  69  55  64  50  71 /  50  70  50  10  10
CALERA      70  55  61  50  69 /  40  80  60  10  10
AUBURN      69  55  61  50  69 /  50  90  60  20  10
MONTGOMERY  73  58  63  51  71 /  60  60  50  10  10
TROY        73  60  65  52  71 /  60  60  50  10   0

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$



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