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Area Forecast Discussion

721
FXUS64 KBMX 291759
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1259 PM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 18Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

A FEW SHOWERS DEVELOPED THIS MORNING ACROSS CENTRAL PORTIONS OF
THE AREA WITHIN A MOISTURE AXIS AND AREA OF ISENTROPIC LIFT.
THESE SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTHWARD ACROSS PORTIONS OF
BLOUNT...ST CLAIR...AND ETOWAH COUNTIES OVER THE NEXT COUPLE
HOURS. STILL EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP
THIS AFTERNOON. MODELS INDICATE AN AREA OF LOW-LEVEL DRY AIR
WORKING INTO SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON...SO
DECREASED POPS SLIGHTLY IN PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST AND TRIED TO
INDICATE A DECREASING TREND THROUGH THE AFTERNOON THERE BASED ON
HI-RES MODELS. HIGH TEMPERATURE FORECAST REMAINS MAINLY ON
TRACK...THOUGH HIGHS MAY BE A BIT LOWER ACROSS THE NORTHEAST DUE
TO CLOUD COVER. UPDATE IS ALREADY OUT.

32/DAVIS


&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

CONVECTION WILL BE SIGNIFICANTLY LOWER IN COVERAGE...AND
DURATION...THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. DRIER AIR BUILDING IN FROM
THE EAST AS THE RIDGE BUILDS...WARMING ALOFT AND LACK OF A
TRIGGER/IMPULSE ARE ALL FACTORS IN IMPROVED CONDITIONS TODAY.
SO...BACKED OUT OF VCTS AT ANY TAF SITE AND OPTED FOR VCSH. WILL
NEED TO MONITOR RADAR TRENDS FOR POSSIBLE CHANGE TO THAT
MINDSET...ESPECIALLY ANB/ASN/BHM OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

WITH RIDGE BUILDING IN AND DIMINUATION OF GULF MOISTURE
INFLUX...IT LOOKS THAT WE WILL BE SPARED OF ANY SIGNIFICANT
CEILINGS OR BR/FG OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. THE ONLY AREA OF CONCERN WILL
BE AT MGM/TOI...WHERE THE LOW LEVEL TRAJECTORIES/GLANCING GULF
FLOW MAY BRING ENOUGH MOISTURE INTO THE AREA FOR SOME LIGHT MVFR
BR AROUND SUNRISE.

02

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 1101 AM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015/

A FEW SHOWERS DEVELOPED THIS MORNING ACROSS CENTRAL PORTIONS OF
THE AREA WITHIN A MOISTURE AXIS AND AREA OF ISENTROPIC LIFT.
THESE SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTHWARD ACROSS PORTIONS OF
BLOUNT...ST CLAIR...AND ETOWAH COUNTIES OVER THE NEXT COUPLE
HOURS. STILL EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP
THIS AFTERNOON. MODELS INDICATE AN AREA OF LOW-LEVEL DRY AIR
WORKING INTO SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON...SO
DECREASED POPS SLIGHTLY IN PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST AND TRIED TO
INDICATE A DECREASING TREND THROUGH THE AFTERNOON THERE BASED ON
HI-RES MODELS. HIGH TEMPERATURE FORECAST REMAINS MAINLY ON
TRACK...THOUGH HIGHS MAY BE A BIT LOWER ACROSS THE NORTHEAST DUE
TO CLOUD COVER. UPDATE IS ALREADY OUT.

32/DAVIS

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$



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