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Area Forecast Discussion

175
FXUS64 KBMX 182306
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
506 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 00Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

A VERY ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN IS SETTING UP OVER THE NEXT WEEK AND
EVEN BEYOND THE ESTABLISHED FORECAST PERIOD. IN THE SHORT TERM...A
FEW LIGHT SHOWERS ARE PUSHING OVER THE AREA AS A WEAK UPPER WAVE
MOVES THROUGH. DECIDED TO LEAVE OUT ANY POPS FOR TONIGHT BUT
MOISTURE WILL RETURN QUICKLY IN THE SOUTHWEST AS WE APPROACH THE
FRIDAY 12Z TIME.

THIS OCCURS AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
AND SPINS UP A SURFACE LOW IN THE NORTHWESTERN GULF. ISENTROPIC
LIFT SHOULD BE SUBSTANTIAL ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SOME WIDESPREAD LIGHT
RAIN AS WE GET INTO THE FRIDAY EVENING/SATURDAY MORNING PERIOD.
THIS WILL BE A FAST MOVING SYSTEM WITH THE LIFT DAMPENING OUT BY
SATURDAY EVENING...WHICH AT THIS POINT LOOKS DRY.

HEADING INTO SUNDAY...ANOTHER SHORTWAVE DROPS INTO THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS WITH THE RETURN OF RAINFALL THE SECOND HALF OF SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY. TIMING IS A LITTLE OFF WITH THIS SYSTEM BUT IT APPEARS THE
BULK OF THE LIFT AND ANY HEAVIER RAINFALL WILL BE DISPLACED EAST
OF OUR CWA.

FAST ON THE HEALS OF THE SUNDAY/MONDAY EVENT IS ANOTHER SYSTEM
THAT HAS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME RAINFALL ON TUESDAY. THE DETAILS
WITH THE UPPER TROUGH DRIVING THIS SYSTEM IS STILL A LITTLE BIT
SKETCHY IN BOTH TIMING AND COVERAGE. JUST BEYOND THE 7 DAY PERIOD
IS YET ANOTHER SYSTEM TO KEEP AND EYE ON.

SO WITH 3 TO 4 SYSTEMS WITHIN THE NEXT 7 TO 9 DAYS AND WITH THE
APPROACH OF CHRISTMAS...ONE HAS TO WONDER ABOUT THE CHANCE FOR
SNOWFALL. AT THIS TIME...NOTHING TO REALLY GET EXCITED ABOUT. EVEN
THOUGH THERE IS SOME COLD AIR NOT TOO FAR TO THE NORTH IT DOES NOT
APPEAR TO GET PULLED DOWN TO INTERACT WITH ANY OF THE MOISTURE.
HIGHS AND LOWS THE NEXT 7 DAYS ARE NOT TOO FAR FROM STATISTICAL
AVERAGES WITH CLOUD COVER AND RAINFALL KEEPING A LOT OF THE
READINGS FROM FLUCTUATING MUCH AT TIMES.

88


&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION.

DISTURBANCE NUMBER ONE IS NOW TO THE SW OF THE AREA AND WILL
REMAIN WEST AND SOUTH OF TAF SITES FOR THE NEXT 12 HOURS. BY 15Z
WE WILL BEGIN TO SEE AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS AND MAYBE EVEN SOME
SPRINKLES FOR TCL...MGM AND TOI. BETTER RAIN CHANCES WILL BE AT
TOI AND MGM AFTER 15Z AND THEN LIKELY RAIN AFTER 20 AND 21Z.
FURTHER NORTH AND EAST...LOOKS LIKE THE BULK OF THE RAIN WILL HOLD
OFF UNTIL AFTER 00Z...BUT A STRAY SHOWER WILL BE POSSIBLE AFTER
21Z AS THE SYSTEM SLIDES NORTHEAST AND SPREADS OUT. BETTER RAIN
CHANCES ACROSS THE AFTER AFTER 00Z SATURDAY...AND WILL BEGIN TO BE
ACCOUNTED FOR IN THE NEXT SET OF TAFS.

16

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$








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