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Area Forecast Discussion

506
FXUS64 KBMX 252014
AFDBMX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
314 PM CDT SAT JUN 25 2016

.DISCUSSION...

Saturday afternoon and tonight.

Diurnally-driven showers and thunderstorms will continue across
Central Alabama through the remainder of this afternoon and into
the evening hours, before steadily waning in coverage.

Sunday through Wednesday.

Highs in the mid/upper 90Fs are projected for Sunday, with dew
points lowering a bit as boundary-layer heating/mixing evolves.
Heat index indices should peak in the low 100Fs -- just below
heat advisory criteria of 105F. If a heat advisory does become
necessary, it is most probable across the southern counties.
Budding showers and thunderstorms are expected through the day,
within an environment supportive of localized microbursts per
forecast soundings -- deep and moderate-to-strongly unstable CAPE
values, steep low-level lapse rates, and high PWAT values. T/Td
spreads in the sub-cloud layer also support this risk. A mention
of isolated strong-to-severe storms will be maintained in the
hazardous weather outlook. Convective activity will persist into
the evening hours before again waning in coverage the deeper we
get into the nighttime hours.

For Monday through Wednesday, an upper-level ridge axis will shift
toward the west as an upper trough moves into the Great Lakes,
mid-Atlantic region. A few impulses will translate through the
upper trough and help push a surface front into Alabama. While
chances for isolated-to-scattered showers and thunderstorms will
exist each day, there should be a steady progression of a `best
chance` corridor from north to south. A hot and muggy air mass
will remain in place initially, with lower-humidity air expected
to arrive behind the frontal passage, mainly across the northern
portions of the coverage area at this time.

89/GSatterwhite

Long term...
Thursday through Saturday.

Remnant boundary will still be across the southern part of the state
on Thursday and isolated to scattered convection will be possible,
in the south. Slightly deeper moisture return across the entire area
on Friday and even better rain chances as we get into Saturday.
Temperatures mid/late week will be closer to normal for late
June/early July.

88

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF Discussion.

Small update to all terminals to include afternoon convection,
otherwise, generally VFR conditions will prevail.

17/KLAWS


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Typical summer weather is expected for the next several
days, although hotter than normal conditions are expected
over the weekend. No weather-related fire weather concerns
are expected at this time.

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT this evening For the following
counties: Autauga...Barbour...Bibb...Bullock...Chilton...Coosa...
Dallas...Elmore...Fayette...Greene...Hale...Jefferson...Lamar...
Lowndes...Macon...Marengo...Marion...Montgomery...Perry...
Pickens...Pike...Shelby...Sumter...Tuscaloosa...Walker...Winston.

&&

$$



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