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Area Forecast Discussion

362
FXUS64 KBMX 011111
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
611 AM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.UPDATE...
FOR 12Z AVIATION.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...

A WEST-SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AT JET LEVEL WITH 60-70 KNOT WINDS WAS
ANALYZED ACROSS OUR AREA WHILE AT 500 MB A CLOSED LOW WAS ANALYZED
ACROSS SOUTHERN NEBRASKA AND NORTHERN KANSAS TONIGHT WHILE ANOTHER
CLOSED LOW EMBEDDED IN A LONGWAVE TROUGH WAS ANALYZED OVER WEST-
CENTRAL ARIZONA. A BROAD SOUTHWEST FLOW WAS DEPICTED ACROSS OUR AREA
AT THE MID LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE AND FURTHER TOWARD THE SURFACE
WITH A SOUTHWEST FLOW AT 700 MB WITH HIGHER MOISTURE VALUES
PREVALENT ACROSS OUR EASTERN COUNTIES. CLOSER TO THE SURFACE... A
SOUTHWEST FLOW IS DEPICTED AT 850 MB WITH WINDS BETWEEN 15 AND 30
KNOTS OVER OUR FORECAST AREA.

AT THE SURFACE... A COLD FRONT WAS ANALYZED AT 04Z FROM SOUTH TEXAS
NORTHEAST INTO WESTERN ARKANSAS AND FURTHER NORTHEAST INTO EASTERN
MISSOURI AND INTO CENTRAL ILLINOIS. THE FRONT BECAME STATIONARY FROM
ILLINOIS EAST ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY THEN WAS ANALYZED ALONG
THE WESTERN SPINE OF THE APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS THROUGH SOUTHERN WEST
VIRGINIA INTO EXTREME EASTERN TENNESSEE AND WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA
SOUTHWEST INTO NORTHERN GEORGIA AS A STATIONARY FRONT WITH
CHARACTERISTICS OF A BACK DOOR OR WEDGE FRONT DUE TO A 1023 MB
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED JUST OFF THE VIRGINIA COASTLINE WHILE
A 1008 MB SURFACE LOW WAS ANALYZED ACROSS NORTHWEST LOUISIANA ALONG
THE FRONT AND ANOTHER 1008 MB SURFACE LOW WAS LOCATED ALONG A
SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING NORTHWEST FROM THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT IN
MISSOURI.

.SHORT TERM...
(REST OF TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING)

ALOFT...EXPECT THE WEST-SOUTHWEST FLOW AT JET LEVEL TO PERSIST
THROUGH THE SHORT-TERM PERIOD WITH WINDS RANGING BETWEEN 50 AND 70
KNOTS IS EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. AT THE MID LEVELS MOST
GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN LOOSE AGREEMENT WITH THE SYNOPTIC
PATTERN WHILE DISAGREEMENT IN THE MORE SUBTLE MESOSCALE FEATURES
IS EVIDENT WITH REGARD TO TIMING AND POSITION OF SHORTWAVES THAT
WILL EJECT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE STATE IN THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT.

NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT THE CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER THE
CENTRAL PLAINS QUICKLY OPENS UP AND IS ABSORBED INTO A POSITIVELY
TILTED TROUGH THAT SLOWLY MIGRATES EAST INTO IOWA SUNDAY NIGHT WHILE
THE UPPER LOW OVER ARIZONA ALSO OPENS INTO THE SAME TROUGH THAT
EXTENDS FROM THE GREAT LAKES SOUTHWEST INTO THE FOUR CORNERS STATES
BY SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS TROUGH SHRINKS IN SIZE AND BECOMES MORE
DEFINED BY MONDAY MORNING AND EXTENDS FROM WISCONSIN SOUTHWEST TO
NEAR THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE. AMPLE MOISTURE IS DEPICTED IN NUMERICAL
GUIDANCE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD IN THE LOWER LEVELS OVER OUR
AREA AS A SOUTHWEST FLOW LOOKS TO PREVAIL THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.

THIS PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO FAVOR THE BROAD SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS
THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE SHORT-TERM PERIOD. SHORTWAVES WILL EJECT
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE STATE AND WILL HELP TO PROVIDE LIFT AND MID TO
UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT FOR SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY...
ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS WHEN NEAR SURFACE-
BASED INSTABILITY IS HIGHEST.

FOR EARLY THIS MORNING WILL KEEP MENTION OF PATCHY FOG IN THE GRIDS
ACROSS OUR NORTHWEST COUNTIES. HAVE ADDED PATCHY FOG ACROSS PORTIONS
OF OUR FAR EASTERN COUNTIES NEAR THE ALABAMA AND GEORGIA BORDER AS
THE RELATIVELY WEAK BACK DOOR OR WEDGE FRONT NEARS FROM THE EAST.
EXPECT ANY FOG TO DISSIPATE AFTER SUNRISE WITH MOST AREAS
EXPERIENCING MOSTLY SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES THIS MORNING THANKS
TO DRIER AIR ALOFT THAT HAS PUSHED IN FROM THE WEST OVERNIGHT.

EXPECT CLOUDS TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS AND
INTO THE AFTERNOON WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY THROUGH THE DAY. THE STRONGEST STORMS TODAY WILL AGAIN POSE
A RISK FOR STRONG WINDS AND SMALL HAIL DUE TO THE EXPECTED
NEAR-SURFACE INSTABILITY AND CONDITIONS ALOFT.

SCATTERED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE
IN COVERAGE THIS EVENING TO SUPPORT AN ISOLATED COVERAGE OVERNIGHT.
LOOK FOR MORE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ON MONDAY AS THE
BROAD TROUGH OVER THE NORTH-CENTRAL PLAINS GRADUALLY SLIDES FURTHER
EAST... RESULTING IN THE SURFACE COLD FRONT TO SLOWLY ADVANCE CLOSER
TO THE STATE FROM THE NORTHWEST.

05

.LONG TERM...

WITH THE COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE STATE AND SUFFICIENT UPPER
LEVEL SUPPORT...MONDAY IS LOOKING RATHER WET. STILL SOME
QUIRKINESS IN THE TIMING OF THE SHORTWAVES BUT MOST OF THE
GUIDANCE IS GROUPED TOGETHER WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES AROUND THE
I-20/59 CORRIDOR. RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE INTO MONDAY NIGHT AS THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLOWLY SAGS SOUTHEASTWARD AND EVENTUALLY A
CLEARING UPPER TROUGH WILL PUSH THE MOISTURE OUT OF THE AREA ON
TUESDAY.

THE REST OF THE WEEK CONTINUES TO LOOKS DRY AND COOL. OMEGA
PATTERN SETS UP WITH NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE.
DAYTIME HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 70S WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. A
COUPLE OF THOSE DAYS...THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WILL FEATURE A LOT OF
LOWER 70S AND UPPER 60S ACROSS THE NORTH WITH MID 70S SOUTH. LOWS
MAINLY IN THE 50S HOWEVER FRIDAY MORNING WILL HAVE PLENTY OF MID
TO UPPER 40S MIXED IN ACROSS THE AREA.

88

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF DISCUSSION.

SCT LOW CLOUDS ARE MOVING ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF OUR CWA AT
THIS HOUR AND IS HELPING TO DISCOURAGE FOG FORMATION. AMENDED
PREVIOUS CYCLE FOR DROP IN VSBYS AT ANB AND WILL MAINTAIN THIS
THROUGH 15Z AT ANB AND ASN. OTHER CONCERN IS WITH TIMING OF
CONVECTION AS MOST GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INSIST ON INITIATION WELL
BEFORE 18Z. INTRODUCED SHRA WITH VCTS AT MOST TERMINALS BY 15Z.

05

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

A WEAK FRONT WILL APPROACH NORTHWEST ALABAMA ON LATER TODAY AND
STALL OUT ACROSS NORTH ALABAMA TONIGHT AND MONDAY. SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MONDAY
WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. THE FRONT WILL BEGIN TO PUSH OUT OF
THE AREA ON TUESDAY AND THE RAIN WILL DIMINISH FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH.

88

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     79  62  78  57  74 /  60  60  70  60  30
ANNISTON    79  65  79  60  75 /  60  50  70  60  30
BIRMINGHAM  80  65  77  60  75 /  70  50  70  50  30
TUSCALOOSA  80  65  77  59  75 /  80  50  80  50  30
CALERA      79  65  78  60  75 /  70  50  70  60  30
AUBURN      80  66  80  62  76 /  60  50  50  50  40
MONTGOMERY  82  68  82  64  79 /  60  50  60  60  40
TROY        83  66  82  64  78 /  60  40  40  50  50

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$



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