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Area Forecast Discussion

461
FXUS64 KBMX 012342
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
642 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 00Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS NORTH
ALABAMA THIS AFTERNOON ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF A DECAYING MCS OVER
TENNESSEE. THE ACTIVITY SHOULD WEAKEN CONSIDERABLY BY EARLY
EVENING AND DO NOT EXPECT MUCH COVERAGE AFTER SUNSET. ANOTHER MCS
IS LIKELY TO DROP SOUTHEAST INTO NORTH ALABAMA AFTER MIDNIGHT
AND THIS IS THE REASON FOR LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN
COUNTIES. NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...AND THE WEATHER WILL REMAIN UNSETTLED. WARM AND MOIST
SOUTHWEST LOW WILL FEED INSTABILITY INTO ANY MCS THAT COMES DOWN
THE PIKE. ALTHOUGH WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED...AN
ISOLATED SEVERE STORM IS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. A SLIGHTLY HIGHER SEVERE THREAT MAY COME ON FRIDAY AS MODELS
SHOW A INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL SHEAR OVER NORTH ALABAMA AS A
SURFACE LOW PASSES TO THE NORTH.

THE UPPER PATTERN WILL UNDERGO A CHANGE EARLY NEXT WEEK AS AN
UPPER RIDGE OVER TEXAS BUILDS EASTWARD. THIS WILL PRODUCE WARMER
DAYTIME TEMPERATURES AND DECREASING RAIN CHANCES.

58/ROSE


&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION.

SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL LAST ANOTHER HOUR OR TWO ACROSS CENTRAL
ALABAMA BEFORE DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT. WINDS VARIABLE AROUND THE
STORMS BUT A GENERAL SOUTHWEST FLOW EXPECTED THROUGH TOMORROW.
BEST CHANCE OF RAIN TOMORROW WILL ONCE AGAIN BE IN THE AFTERNOON
WITH THE WEAKENING TREND AT SUNSET.

88

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED EACH
DAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED AT
THIS TIME.

19

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$



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