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Area Forecast Discussion

384
FXUS64 KBMX 181435
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
935 AM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

.UPDATE...
MORNING UPDATE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

LARGE MASS OF RAIN CONTINUES ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS
MORNING...WITH COVERAGE AND INTENSITY INCREASING AS YOU GO SOUTH
AND EAST. APPEARS THAT OUR POP FORECAST IS PRETTY MUCH ON
TARGET...WITH A FAIRLY SHARP GRADIENT BETWEEN CATEGORICAL POPS
AND LOWER CHANCE POPS AS YOU GET INTO THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN
SECTIONS. AT MOST...WILL ONLY NEED TO MAKE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO
POPS AND WX.

WITH THE RAIN NOW PRETTY WIDESPREAD...TEMPERATURES ARE HAVE EITHER
REMAINED STEADY OR EVEN DROPPED A FEW DEGREES. WE MAY NEED TO
LOWER FORECAST HIGHS FOR TODAY IN THE WEST DUE TO THIS RECENT
COOLING. TEMPS PROBABLY ARE NOT GOING TO MOVE MUCH IN THE EAST
EITHER...WITH ALL THE RAIN AROUND AND A WEDGE-LIKE EAST WIND.

/61/

61

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF DISCUSSION.

WITH RAIN AND CLOUDS COVERING UP A GOOD CHUNK OF THE AREA...WENT A
VERY PESSIMISTIC FORECAST FOR THIS SET OF TAFS. THE LOW IFR DECK
HAS MOVED INTO TOI AND MGM AND WILL SLOWLY MOVE NORTHWARD
THROUGHOUT THE MORNING. EXPECT THE CIGS TO LIFT A TAD AND BE
GENERALLY LOW END MVFR BY 14 TO 15Z. WENT WITH PERSISTENT RAIN AND
LOW CLOUDS FOR MGM AND TOI THROUGH THE PERIOD...BUT STARTED
CLEARING OUT THE NORTHERN 4 BY 3 TO 6Z AS THE TROUGH PUSHED
EASTWARD THROUGH THE STATE.

NOTE...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILL BE ISSUING SEASONAL
TERMINAL FORECASTS FOR THE TALLADEGA MUNICIPAL AIRPORT (KASN) IN
TALLADEGA...ALABAMA. THE FORECASTS WILL BE ISSUED FROM APRIL 20TH
00Z THROUGH AT LEAST MAY 8TH 00Z. DUE TO THE LIMITED AVAILABILITY
OF OBSERVATIONS...KASN TAF WILL HAVE AMD NOT SKED APPENDED TO THE
END OF THE FORECAST.

16


&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$







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