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Flood Potential Outlook

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FGUS72 KFFC 061427
ESFFFC
GAC009-011-013-015-021-023-035-045-047-053-055-057-059-063-067-
077-079-081-083-085-089-091-093-097-107-111-113-115-117-121-123-
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HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
927 AM EST THU MAR 6 2014

...SPRING FLOOD OUTLOOK FOR NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA...

FOR THE SPRING OF 2014...THE SOUTHEAST RIVER FORECAST CENTER IS
CALLING FOR A NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL RIVER FLOOD POTENTIAL
FOR NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA. GIVEN THAT SPRING IS A
CHARACTERISTICALLY ACTIVE PERIOD FOR RIVER FLOODING...THIS OUTLOOK
INDICATES THAT NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA CAN EXPECT TO SEE A
NEARLY-TYPICAL NUMBER OF RIVER FLOODS WITH A SIMILAR FLOOD
MAGNITUDE.

...EXISTING CONDITIONS...

SOIL MOISTURE...UPPER AND LOWER SOIL MOISTURE CONDITIONS HAVE
BECOME WET IN NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA DUE TO RECENT WEATHER
SYSTEMS PRODUCING ABOVE NORMAL RAINFALL DURING THE WINTER SEASON.
AVERAGE DAILY STREAM FLOWS FOR THE PAST 30 DAYS HAVE BEEN RUNNING
NEAR NORMAL ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA...WITH A FEW LOCATIONS
IN THE COOSA-TALLAPOOSA RIVER BASIN AVERAGING SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
STREAMFLOW.

CLIMATE REGIME...A NEAR NORMAL WEATHER PATTERN HAS PERSISTED THROUGH
THE WINTER MONTHS AND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO THE SPRING. THIS
PATTERN HAS CONTRIBUTED TO STORM TRACKS THAT HAVE BROUGHT
SUBSTANTIAL PRECIPITATION TO NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA ABOUT EVERY 3
TO 5 DAYS. THE MORE SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL AMOUNTS HAVE BEEN ABOUT
EVERY TWO WEEKS.

RAINFALL...DURING THE PAST 90 DAYS...ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION HAS
PREVAILED OVER NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA. THIS AREA WAS GENERALLY
110 TO 150 PERCENT OF NORMAL WITH RAINFALL TOTALS OF 10 TO 25
INCHES. AS A RESULT...WIDESPREAD MINOR FLOODING OCCURRED A FEW TIMES
ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA IN JANUARY...AND ISOLATED MINOR
FLOODING OCCURRED OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST GEORGIA IN FEBRUARY.

RESERVOIR CONSIDERATIONS...OVERALL POOL LEVELS OF THE MAJOR
RESERVOIRS IN NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA ARE NEAR OR ABOVE TARGET
LEVELS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...WITH A FEW ALREADY APPROACHING SUMMER
POOL LEVELS. NORMAL RAINFALL SHOULD ALLOW RESERVOIRS TO BE FILLED TO
SUMMER POOL CRITERIA.

METEOROLOGICAL OUTLOOK...THE SOUTHEAST U.S. MOVES INTO A MORE
TRANSITIONAL ENVIRONMENT IN THE SPRING WITH INCREASING CHANCES OF
HEAVY RAIN. THE CURRENT FORECAST FOR MARCH THROUGH MAY IS FOR EQUAL
CHANCES OF ABOVE OR BELOW NORMAL RAINFALL OVER NORTH AND CENTRAL
GEORGIA. A NEUTRAL ENSO PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE
SPRING...DEVELOPING INTO EL NINO THIS SUMMER.

...SPRING FLOOD OUTLOOK...
CONSIDERING THE RAINFALL EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 90 DAYS AND THE
PRE-EXISTING ABOVE NORMAL SOIL CONDITIONS...THE OUTLOOK IS FOR A
NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL CHANCE OF FLOODING THIS SPRING IN
NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA.

&&

FOR DETAILED WEB INFORMATION CONCERNING RIVER STAGES AND FORECASTS
FOR NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA...GO TO:

         WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ATLANTA

AND UNDER CURRENT WEATHER...CLICK ON "RIVERS/LAKES".

FOR PRECIPITATION ANALYSIS...GO TO:

         HTTP://WATER.WEATHER.GOV/PRECIP

FOR FORECAST PRECIPITATION...GO TO:

         WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/SERFC/?N=QPFPAGEHPC24

$$

31 - BELANGER








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