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Area Forecast Discussion

668
FXUS62 KFFC 201731 AAC
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
131 PM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1119 AM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014/

UPDATE...
SATELLITE STILL SHOWS LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS THE ATLANTA METRO
AREA AND POINTS SOUTH. THE CLOUDS AND THE WEDGE IN PLACE SHOULD
HELP TO KEEP THE TEMPERATURES JUST AROUND 80. NO CHANGES TO THE
TEMPERATURE FORECAST WAS MADE. MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF ON THE POPS
FOR SOUTHEAST ZONES TODAY. DECIDED TO TRIM BACK THE AREA OF RAIN
FORECAST. THUNDER IS POSSIBLE BUT CHANCES ARE LOW OVERALL. NO
OTHER CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WERE MADE.

ARG

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 739 AM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 312 AM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014/

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LATEST REGIONAL SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OFF
THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WITH WEDGING DOWN THE EASTERN SEABOARD AND
INTO THE CAROLINAS AND NORTH GEORGIA. MEANWHILE...ALSO MONITORING
SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING OFF THE CENTRAL FLORIDA COAST WHICH THUS
FAR REMAINS A WEAK FEATURE BUT COULD PLAY A SIGNIFICANT ROLE IN
THE LOCAL SENSIBLE WX THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ALREADY SEEING SOME
INFLUENCE...MAINLY OUTSIDE OF OUR AREA...WITH COASTAL CONVERGENCE
ON THE NORTH SIDE OF LOW ALLOWING FOR GOOD COVERAGE OF SHOWERS
ALONG THE GOLDEN ISLES OF GEORGIA. EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO REMAIN
WELL EAST OF THE AREA THROUGH DAYBREAK.

SHOULD BE A CLOUDY START FOR MOST AS LOW CLOUDS OVER NE GEORGIA
FILL IN AS WELL AS ADVECT WEST. FEEL THESE CLOUDS WILL BE WITH US
FOR LONGER THAN MODELS PROJECT WITHIN DEVELOPING WEDGE BUT SHOULD
NOT HAVE TOO MUCH INFLUENCE ON EXPECTED MAX TEMPS. AS CLOUDS ERODE
FOR SOUTHERN SECTIONS...INSTABILITY WILL INCREASE MODESTLY WITH
LOCAL WRF INDICATING CAPE VALUES BETWEEN 500 J/KG AND 1000 J/KG
ALONG AND SOUTH OF A MCN TO CSG LINE. THIS COMBINED WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER AROUND 1.5 AND CONVERGENCE CREATED BY WEDGE/LOW
COMBINATION SHOULD ALLOW FOR LOW END SCATTERED COVERAGE OF SHOWERS
WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE AS WELL.

AS LOW LIFTS QUICKLY NE ON SUNDAY...DRIER AIR WILL BE TUGGED IN ON
THE BACKSIDE WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER DROPPING BELOW ONE INCH FOR
MOST LOCATIONS AND RESULTING IN LESS THAN MENTIONABLE POPS THROUGH
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. A LATE ARRIVING COLD FRONT WILL BE MOISTURE
STARVED BUT ACTUALLY HAVE A HEALTHY AMOUNT OF CAPE (1500 J/KG TO
2000 J/KG) ALONG WITH SOME SUBTLE SHORTWAVE ENERGY TO PRODUCE LOW
END POPS BY 00Z. SHOULD MOISTURE VALUES INCREASE IN FUTURE MODEL
RUNS...THESE POPS WILL LIKELY NEED TO BE INCREASED FURTHER.

DEESE

LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY WITH LIMITED MOISTURE AND ONLY WEAK INSTABILITY ASSOCIATED.
A DRIER AIRMASS MOVES OVER MUCH OF THE AREA FOR TUESDAY WITH
MOISTURE RETURNING WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY WITH THE GFS AND
EUROPEAN MODELS DIFFERING ON HOW MUCH AND WHEN. WITH THE EASTERLY
FLOW IN PLACE NO INSTABILITY IS FORECAST. FOR NOW SMALL PRECIP
CHANCES WILL BE CONFINED TO THE SE CWA THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

FORECAST TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO NORMAL THROUGH MONDAY THEN BELOW
NORMAL INTO FRIDAY.

BDL

.AVIATION...
18Z UPDATE...
MAIN CONCERN FOR THE FORECAST PERIOD IS THE WIND CHANGE TONIGHT.
WINDS WILL CHANGE OVERNIGHT TO THE WNW AND COULD BE GUSTY
TOMORROW. WITH A DRYING OF THE ATMOSPHERE...CLOUDS SHOULD LEAVE
THE AREA AND THE CHANCE OF RAIN IS LOW TOMORROW AFTERNOON. EVERY
SITE SHOULD REMAIN IN VFR CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...18Z UPDATE...
HIGH ON ALL ELEMENTS.

ARG

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          81  59  86  66 /   5   0  10  30
ATLANTA         81  64  85  66 /   5   0  10  30
BLAIRSVILLE     79  55  80  56 /   5   5  40  40
CARTERSVILLE    81  59  85  61 /   0   5  30  40
COLUMBUS        82  64  88  68 /   5   0   0  20
GAINESVILLE     78  62  82  65 /   5   5  30  40
MACON           82  60  86  64 /  20   5   0  20
ROME            83  60  85  61 /   0   5  30  40
PEACHTREE CITY  81  58  86  64 /   5   0   5  30
VIDALIA         82  65  88  67 /  30  20   5   5

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ARG
LONG TERM....TDP
AVIATION...ARG





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