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Area Forecast Discussion

884
FXUS62 KFFC 240011
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
811 PM EDT WED APR 23 2014

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 348 PM EDT WED APR 23 2014/

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
DRIER AIR HAS PUSHED JUST SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA AS SEEN FROM
THE AFTERNOON CUMULUS THAT HAS DEVELOPED ALONG AND SOUTH OF OUR
SOUTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES. EXPECT DRY AIR AND UPPER RIDGE TO
DOMINATE THE AREA THROUGH THURSDAY. SOME RETURN MOISTURE BEGINNING
TOMORROW AFTERNOON AS WINDS SHIFT TO SOUTHEAST. NEXT SHORT WAVE
MOVING THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY TOMORROW NIGHT SHOULD BRING A CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS BEGINNING AROUND 06Z...MAINLY
OVER NORTHERN ZONES. BEST DYNAMICS LOOK CONCENTRATED ACROSS THAT
AREA...BUT INSTABILITY SEEMS MARGINAL. NOT EXPECTING SEVERE STORMS
AT THIS TIME. HAVE STAYED CLOSE TO A MAV/MET BLEND.

41

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
EXTENDED FORECAST CONTINUES TO LOOK GOOD...WITH ONLY MINOR CHANGES
TO UPDATE CURRENT GRID THINKING. MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE
FRONTAL SYSTEM PUSHING INTO THE STATE EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.
ALTHOUGH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED...COVERAGE IS
SIGNIFICANTLY LIMITED BY LACK OF AVAILABLE MOISTURE ACCOMPANYING
THE FRONT AS IT MOVES INTO EASTERN AND CENTRAL GEORGIA. NEXT BIG
RAIN PRODUCER STILL LOOKS TO BE EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH MODELS
STILL SUGGESTING WIDESPREAD 1-2 INCHES...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTH
GEORGIA. THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION IS INCLUDED BELOW...

31

/ISSUED 403 AM EDT WED APR 23 2014/
HIGH PRESSURE THAT DOMINATES THE SHORT TERM MOVES EAST OFF THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST AND BECOMES CENTERED JUST OFF THE CAROLINA/GEORGIA
COAST BY 00Z FRI. THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM TO AFFECT THE AREA
BEGINS DEVELOPING OVER THE PLAINS STATES WED AFTERNOON. THE MAIN
LOW CENTER DEEPENS AND MOVES NE TO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKE STATES
THU AFTERNOON. THE TAIL END OF THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT PUSHES
INTO NW GA BY 06Z TO 12Z FRI. THE MODELS ARE STILL SHOWING A
DECENT AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY WITH THE FRI SYSTEM SO STILL KEEPING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST. THE MODELS ARE ALSO
STILL NOT SHOWING MUCH AVAILABLE MOISTURE SO WE SHOULD NOT SEE ANY
ISSUES WITH FLOODING. THERE IS ANOTHER WEAKER FRONTAL BOUNDARY
THAT MOVES IN SAT MORNING WHICH HELPS TO REINFORCE THE FIRST ONE
AND KEEP A CHANCE OF PRECIP THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.
THIS PATTERN IS LOOKING MORE AND MORE LIKE A LIKE A SUMMERTIME
PATTERN THAN A SPRING PATTERN WITH DECENT CAPE AND LOW SHEAR.
STARTING FRIDAY...CAPES AND LIS PEAK EVERYDAY AROUND 18Z AND FALL
OFF RAPIDLY BY 00Z. TEMPS ALSO LOOK MORE LIKE SUMMER BEGINNING THU
WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 80S. LOWS WILL BE IN THE 50S AND 60S.

41

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z UPDATE...
VERY DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE RESULTING IN CLEAR SKIES FOR ALL THE
TERMINALS WITH CLOUDS RELEGATED TO FAR SOUTH GEORGIA. SHOULD BE AN
INCREASE IN MOISTURE FOR THURSDAY BUT ONLY ENOUGH TO PRODUCE A SCT
MID LEVEL DECK AT BEST. BETTER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO ARRIVE THU
NIGHT BUT JUST OUTSIDE THIS TAF CYCLE WITH MVFR PUSHING IN FROM
THE SOUTHEAST BY FRI MORNING.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...00Z UPDATE...
HIGH ON ALL ELEMENTS.

DEESE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          48  78  58  81 /   0   5   5  10
ATLANTA         51  76  60  78 /   0   5   5  10
BLAIRSVILLE     43  73  54  74 /   0   5  30  70
CARTERSVILLE    44  77  58  78 /   0   5  10  40
COLUMBUS        53  81  60  81 /   0   5   5  10
GAINESVILLE     49  73  59  77 /   0   5   5  40
MACON           49  81  59  83 /   0   5   5   5
ROME            44  77  57  78 /   0   5  60  30
PEACHTREE CITY  44  79  57  79 /   0   5   5   5
VIDALIA         56  81  62  83 /   0   5   5  10

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DEESE
LONG TERM....11
AVIATION...DEESE





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