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Area Forecast Discussion

848
FXUS62 KFFC 311154
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
754 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014


.UPDATE...
ADDED PATCHY DENSE FOG TO THIS MORNING BASED ON LATEST OB TRENDS
IN THE WAKE OF THE OVERNIGHT SHOWERS AND STORMS. ISSUED SPS THRU
10 AM FOR NORTH GA AND WEST CENTRAL GA. OTHERWISE PESKY CONVECTION
CONTINUES TO LINGER ON IN PARTS OF THE SOUTH AND EAST. PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

BAKER

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 415 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014/

.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
WAVE OF PERSISTENT CONVECTION SHOULD CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE EASTWARD
AND DIMINISH IN COVERAGE EARLY THIS MORNING. LINGERING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE FROM THE OVERNIGHT PRECIP WILL LIKELY ALLOW FOR PATCHY FOG
THIS MORNING ACROSS THE CWA.

MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH CONTINUED WEAKENING OF SHORTWAVE
ENERGY NORTH OF THE AREA AND FURTHER ELONGATION OF THE ENHANCED
MOISTURE FIELD TODAY. STILL ENOUGH MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY PROGGED
TO KEEP CHANCE POPS IN THE FAR NORTH AND SOUTHEAST WITH SLIGHT
ELSEWHERE. HI-RES SOLUTIONS VERIFIED DECENTLY ON RECENT CONVECTIVE
COVERAGE /ALBEIT TIMING DISCREPANCIES/ AND HAVE TRENDED SUNDAY POPS
CLOSE TO THIS. OVERALL LOOKING TO BE LESS COVERAGE TODAY AND BEST
CHANCE FOR SOME STRONG TO ISOLATED SEVERE DEVELOPMENT WILL BE SOUTH
AND EAST OF MACON...BASED ON NEAR 1500-2000 J/KG OF ML-SBCAPE WITH A
BIT HIGHER DCAPE. STILL PRETTY DECENT PWATS BASED ON RECENT BUFR
SOUNDINGS AS WELL. MAIN THREATS THEREFORE LOOK TO BE STRONG
DOWNBURST WINDS AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING WITH BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL.

WEAK SFC RIDGE LINGERING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST CONUS THROUGH MONDAY
BUT ENOUGH MOISTURE TO SUPPORT GENERAL CHANCE POPS FOR DIURNALLY
DRIVEN CONVECTION. TOO DIFFICULT AT THE MOMENT TO FAVOR A PARTICULAR
PORTION OF THE CWA MUCH MORE THAN ANOTHER FOR DEVELOPMENT.

FOR TEMPS...GENERAL GUIDANCE BLEND RESULTS IN NEAR NORMAL VALUES
TODAY THEN SLIGHT INCREASE TO ABOVE NORMAL FOR MONDAY.

BAKER

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE WILL CONTINUE OVER MUCH OF
AREA FOR THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST. A WEAK LEE TROUGH
WILL BE SITUATED ACROSS NORTHEAST GA THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE
WEEK. A SLIGHTLY STRONGER FRONT MAY IMPACT THE FORECAST AREA BY NEXT
WEEKEND.

DIURNAL CONVECTION EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK. MODELS ARE
PROGGING A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY TO DROP DOWN ACROSS NORTH GA BY
MID-WEEK. CONVECTION DOESN`T SEEM TO BE ENHANCED ALONG THIS FEATURE
FOR NOW. HAVE NOT MADE MANY CHANGES TO THE FORECAST...PERSISTENCE IS
THE RULE WITH ISOLD/SCT POPS EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

BY THE END OF THE WEEK/EARLY WEEKEND...HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT BEGINS TO
RETROGRADE WEST. THE SURFACE HIGH WILL BEGIN TO PUSH OFFSHORE AS A
FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.

TEMPS WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

NLISTEMAA

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z UPDATE...
INITIAL LOW CIGS AND VSBYS IN THE LIFR AND POSSIBLY LOWER RANGE.
HAVE HANDLED WITH TEMPO FOR MOST SITES THRU 13Z. SHOULD SCATTER
OUT AND LIFT QUICKLY AND SCT 5-6 KFT BY 18Z IS GOOD BET. COULD GET
BKN FARTHER SOUTH WHERE THERE IS BETTER CHANCE OF AFTERNOON
PRECIP. CHANCE TOO LOW NEAR KATL TO INCLUDE MENTION IN TAF BUT
CANNOT RULE OUT SOMETHING ISOLATED DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON INTO
EVENING. WINDS SHOULD BECOME SW AT 7 KTS OR LESS THROUGH PERIOD.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...12Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM ON MORNING CIG/VSBY ENDING AND AFTERNOON PRECIP CHANCE.
HIGH ALL ELSE.

BAKER

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          93  70  95  74 /  20  20  30  10
ATLANTA         90  73  92  77 /  20  10  30  10
BLAIRSVILLE     85  64  87  70 /  40  30  30  10
CARTERSVILLE    90  69  92  74 /  30  20  30  10
COLUMBUS        93  74  94  78 /  20  20  30  10
GAINESVILLE     89  71  91  76 /  30  20  30  10
MACON           93  71  95  75 /  30  20  30  10
ROME            90  68  93  74 /  30  30  40  10
PEACHTREE CITY  91  69  92  73 /  20  10  30  10
VIDALIA         95  74  94  75 /  30  30  30  30

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BAKER
LONG TERM....NLISTEMAA
AVIATION...BAKER





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