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Area Forecast Discussion

982
FXUS62 KFFC 242305 AAA
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
605 PM EST SAT JAN 24 2015

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 144 PM EST SAT JAN 24 2015/

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
DRY AND CLEAR CONDITIONS ARE PREVAILING ACROSS THE STATE TODAY
AS UPPER LEVEL LOW CONTINUES TO LIFT UP THE EAST COAST. PRESSURE
GRADIENT WINDS ACROSS THE STATE WERE HIGH ENOUGH TO ISSUE THE WIND
ADVISORY THIS MORNING...WHICH CONTINUES UNTIL 7 PM TONIGHT.

THE QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY...WITH
INCREASING HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH AS A STRONG
AND COLD LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES THE STATE FROM THE
NORTHWEST. HAVE CONTINUED WITH MENTION OF SLIGHT CHANCE POPS LATE
SUNDAY...AND AT THIS TIME ANTICIPATE ALL RAIN THROUGH SUNDAY
EVENING. A TRANSITION IS EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTH GEORGIA
INTO MONDAY MORNING...JUST BEYOND THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. SEE THE
LONG TERM DISCUSSION BELOW.

31

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LONG TERM PERIOD BEGINS WITH SOME SUBTLE BUT SIGNIFICANT CHANGES
IN THE MODELS FOR THE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY TIME PERIOD. 24 TO
36 HOUR TRENDS IN THE MODELS HAS BEEN FOR A STRONGER AND MORE
CLOSED MID AND UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WHICH TRACKS FURTHER SOUTH. NEW
PATH IS SOMEWHERE BETWEEN NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA...WITH THE GFS
SLIGHTLY MORE NORTHWARD THAN THE NAM12. MOISTURE AND LIFT
DEFINITELY MORE SIGNIFICANT THAN PREVIOUS RUNS AND HAVE UPPED
POPS TO MID RANGE CHANCE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS FAR NE GEORGIA. BASED
ON THERMAL PROFILES...ALL AREAS SHOULD START OFF AS RAIN SUNDAY
EVENING BUT TRANSITION TO A RAIN/SNOW MIX AFTER 06Z OVER MUCH OF
THE AREA...EVEN DOWN TO THE NORTHERN METRO. BETWEEN 09Z AND
12Z...SHOULD SEE HIGHEST OF THE ELEVATIONS OVER NE GEORGIA SWITCH
OVER TO PRIMARILY SNOW.

THE LIMITING FACTOR FOR MORE SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS FOR THIS
EVENT WILL BE THE CONTINUED ELEVATED SURFACE TEMPS. ATLANTA METRO
WILL BE IN THE MID 30S MONDAY MORNING AS WILL MUCH OF NORTH
GEORGIA WITH ONLY THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS APPROACHING FREEZING AND
ALLOWING FOR MORE SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS. A LITTLE CONCERNED
THAT FORCING AND EFFECTS OF MID LEVEL LOW TRACKING RIGHT ACROSS
THE AREA COULD ENHANCE TOTALS OVER THE NE MOUNTAINS. HAVE UPPED
TOTALS IN GRIDS TO INDICATE A HALF AN INCH BUT UP TO AN INCH FOR
THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS.

COLD AIR RUSHES IN MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING ALLOWING MOST
AREAS OF NORTH GEORGIA TO DIP BELOW FREEZING. ELEVATED WINDS WILL
HELP WITH THE DRYING BUT CONTINUED LOW LEVEL CLOUDS WILL NOT. WILL
NEED TO MONITOR CLOSELY THE BLACK ICE POTENTIAL LATE MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY MORNING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS.

DEESE

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z UPDATE...
VFR CONDITIONS WITH CLEAR OR NEARLY SKIES INTO SUNDAY.
SURFACE WINDS BECOMING LIGHT WEST OR CALM THEN BECOMING
SSW DURING THE DAY SUNDAY. INCREASING CLOUDS LATE SUNDAY.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...00Z UPDATE...
HIGH CONFIDENCE ALL ELEMENTS INTO SUNDAY.

BDL

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          32  56  39  52 /   0  10  10  20
ATLANTA         35  56  39  48 /   0  20  30  10
BLAIRSVILLE     30  50  33  42 /   0  40  50  40
CARTERSVILLE    31  56  37  47 /   0  30  50  10
COLUMBUS        35  60  39  52 /   0   5  10  10
GAINESVILLE     33  53  38  47 /   0  20  30  30
MACON           32  59  40  54 /   0   5  10  10
ROME            29  56  36  47 /   0  40  50  10
PEACHTREE CITY  30  57  37  49 /   0  20  20  10
VIDALIA         36  60  40  57 /   0   5  10  10

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...BDL



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