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Area Forecast Discussion

035
FXUS62 KFFC 231136
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
736 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 318 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014/

.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
CHILLY START THIS MORNING AS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS IN THE FAR
NORTHEAST LIKELY WAKING UP TO PATCHY FROST AND MANY OTHERS IN NORTH
GEORGIA IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S. SHOULD WARM UP QUICKLY TODAY
UNDER AGAIN MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WITH HIGHS SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMS.

GUIDANCE IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH MAIN FEATURES OF SHORT TERM AS
RIDGING QUICKLY WEAKENS ACROSS THE AREA AS THE UPPER CUTOFF LOW
PUSHES FARTHER NORTHEAST ACROSS THE EASTERN SEABOARD. GRADIENT WINDS
SHOULD BE LESS TODAY AND FLOW ALOFT TRANSITIONS TO A BRIEF ZONAL
PERIOD AHEAD OF A MOISTURE STARVED SHORTWAVE PROGGED TO TRAVERSE THE
AREA FRIDAY. HAVE KEPT DRY FORECAST AS THERMAL PROFILES ONLY SHOWING
SOME UPPER TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE WITH THE WEAK DISTURBANCE SO HAVE
JUST ENHANCED SOME CLOUD COVERAGE ACROSS THE NORTH.

THOUGH STILL LOOKING COOL TONIGHT...VALUES SHOULD BE A BIT TOO WARM
FOR FROST CONCERNS ESPECIALLY IF SOME HIGH CLOUDS MAKE IT IN FOR THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS LIMITING RADIATIONAL COOLING. FRIDAY HIGHS
RETURNING BACK NEAR NORMAL IN THE LOW TO MID 70S FOR MUCH OF AREA.

BAKER

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A COUPLE OF COLD FRONTS WILL IMPACT THE CWFA THROUGH THE EXTENDED
FORECAST. THE NEXT BEST CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE DURING THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

THE ONLY REAL CHANGE IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST WAS TO ADD SLIGHT
CHANCE/CHANCE POPS FOR WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. EXTENDED MODELS HAVE COME INTO A
LITTLE BETTER AGREEMENT. QPF IS PROGGED TO BE VERY LIGHT AND LESS
THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH AT THIS TIME. MODELS ARE ALSO PROGGING SOME
LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY ALONG THE FRONT...BUT WILL LEAVE OUT MENTION
OF THUNDER AT THIS TIME. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS.

OTHERWISE...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES. ABOVE NORMAL DAYTIME TEMPS ARE
EXPECTED FOR THE END OF THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AHEAD OF
THE MID-WEEK FRONTAL BOUNDARY.

NLISTEMAA

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z UPDATE...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH PERIOD. WINDS GENERALLY NW AT 7
KTS OR LESS TODAY THOUGH SOME WINDS MAY MIX DOWN STRONGER AND OUT
OF THE NORTHEAST NEAR MIDDAY FOR THE NORTHERN SITES. MAGNITUDES
DECREASING TO LIGHT OR CALM TONIGHT. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WITH SOME
CIRRUS GRADUALLY FILTERING IN TODAY WITH GREATEST COVERAGE LATE
TONIGHT/EARLY FRIDAY THEN CLEARING AGAIN.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...12Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM ON MIDDAY WINDS.
HIGH ON ALL ELSE.

BAKER

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          70  43  73  47 /   0   0   0   0
ATLANTA         69  49  72  52 /   0   0   0   0
BLAIRSVILLE     67  39  69  41 /   0   0   0   0
CARTERSVILLE    68  41  72  45 /   0   0   0   0
COLUMBUS        71  47  75  48 /   0   0   0   0
GAINESVILLE     68  46  70  47 /   0   0   0   0
MACON           72  41  76  45 /   0   0   0   0
ROME            69  42  73  46 /   0   0   0   0
PEACHTREE CITY  70  39  74  44 /   0   0   0   0
VIDALIA         72  48  75  48 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: FANNIN...GILMER...LUMPKIN...TOWNS...UNION...WHITE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BAKER
LONG TERM...NLISTEMAA
AVIATION...BAKER





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