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Area Forecast Discussion

556
FXUS62 KFFC 190135 AAB
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
935 PM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.UPDATE...
NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST. SOME LOWER CLOUDS ACROSS THE FAR
NORTHERN COUNTIES THAT ARE EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE AND SOME VARYING HIGH
CLOUDS OVER OTHER PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA.
FORECAST LOWS RUNNING 2-5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

BDL


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 710 PM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014/

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
A DRY COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY MOVING SOUTH ACROSS THE CWFA THIS
EVENING. THERE IS NOT ANY PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE
BOUNDARY...JUST SOME SCT CLOUDS. ANY CLOUDS SHOULD DISSIPATE LATER
THIS EVENING...LEAVING CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT. SOME THIN CIRRUS IS
POSSIBLE ON SUNDAY. NW WINDS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT...BUT SWITCH
AROUND TO THE EAST BY LATE MORNING. GUSTS SHOULD DIMINISH A COUPLE
OF HOURS AFTER SUNSET.

THE DRY FORECAST WILL CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL TEMPS EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.

NLISTEMAA

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FORECAST LOOKS TO BE ON TRACK. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW DRY FRONT
THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AND HAVE CONTINUED TO
ADVERTISE NO POPS. HAVE MADE SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS TO MIN AND MAX
TEMPERATURES TO ACCOUNT FOR LATEST MODEL TRENDS. NO ADDITIONAL
UPDATES ARE PLANNED AT THIS TIME. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

31

/ISSUED 354 AM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014/
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO BE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH SUBTLE
DIFFERENCES THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. THERE CONTINUES TO BE
SUBTLE DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF ON THE EVOLUTION AND
EXTEND OF ENHANCED MOISTURE WITH THE NEXT SHORTWAVE AND TRANSLATED
SFC FROPA FOR LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. STILL THINKING FRONT WILL
BE DRY SO HAVE LEFT OUT POPS AND ONLY INCREASED SOME CLOUD
COVERAGE MAINLY IN THE NORTH FOR THIS PERIOD. UPPER TROUGH IS
PROGGED TO CUTOFF AND LINGER OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST THROUGH THE
END OF THE WORK WEEK ALLOWING MUCH OF THE CWA TO BE UNDER NW FLOW
ALOFT AND CONTINUED SFC RIDGING...SO DRY AND MOSTLY CLEAR FCST
THROUGHOUT.

FOR TEMPS...GENERAL BLEND OF GUIDANCE LOOKS REASONABLE WITH VALUES
NEAR CLIMO NORMS EXCEPT FOR A BELOW NORMAL PERIOD FROM WEDNESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH.

BAKER

AVIATION...
00Z UPDATE...
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH SUNDAY WITH CLEAR TO SCATTERED...MAINLY
HIGH CLOUDS. SURFACE WINDS GENERALLY NW NEAR 10 KTS WILL
DIMINISH. WINDS BECOMING NNE OR LIGHT AND VARIABLE SUNDAY.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...00Z UPDATE...
HIGH CONFIDENCE ALL ELEMENTS THROUGH TONIGHT.
LOW TO MEDIUM CONFIDENCE FOR WIND DIRECTION SUNDAY DAYTIME.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          76  46  67  46 /   0   0   0   0
ATLANTA         75  48  66  49 /   0   0   0   0
BLAIRSVILLE     65  40  63  41 /   0   0   0   0
CARTERSVILLE    73  44  66  45 /   0   0   0   0
COLUMBUS        80  51  70  49 /   0   0   0   0
GAINESVILLE     70  45  66  46 /   0   0   0   0
MACON           82  49  70  46 /   0   0   0   0
ROME            73  44  66  43 /   0   0   0   0
PEACHTREE CITY  76  46  67  45 /   0   0   0   0
VIDALIA         81  52  71  51 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BDL






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