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Area Forecast Discussion

859
FXUS62 KFFC 282341
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
741 PM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.EVENING UPDATE...
A STRONG JET MAX IS PRODUCING AN AREA OF HIGH MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS
THAT IS INVADING PARTS OF WEST CENTRAL GA THIS EVENING...MAINLY FROM
NEAR CARROLLTON SOUTHWARD...WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS NOTED
AROUND LA GRANGE... COLUMBUS AND OVER TO CORDELE NOTED. REGIONAL
RADARS SHOW MAINLY VIRGA OVER AL... SO NOT EXPECTING ANY PRECIP TO
REACH THE GROUND HERE AS WELL. THE CLOUDS WILL LIKELY PERSIST OVER
THESE SAME AREAS THROUGH MUCH OF THE EVENING... BUT A GRADUAL SHIFT
SOUTHWARD AND DISSIPATION IS EXPECTED BY MIDNIGHT OR SO.
THEREFORE... NOT EXPECTING MUCH AFFECT ON OVERNIGHT LOWS JUST YET...
SO WILL HOLD ONTO THE FREEZE WARNING AS POSTED FOR NOW. HAVE TWEAKED
CLOUDS A BIT TO WORD FOR MOSTLY CLOUDY WHERE NEEDED... THEN PARTLY
CLOUDY AFTER MIDNIGHT. OTHERWISE... REST OF FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK
AT THIS TIME.  /39


.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
/ISSUED AT 336 PM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015/
EASTERN STATES UPPER TROUGH WILL BE DRIFTING OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST
DURING THE SHORT TERM. COLD AIR ADVECTION AND LOW THICKNESS VALUES
EXPECTED TO GIVE OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES NEAR OR BELOW FREEZING
FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA. HAVE LEFT THE FREEZE WARNING AS IS
BUT THE SOUTHERN EDGE MAY NEED TO BE EXPANDED BUT NOT CONFIDENT
ENOUGH TO ADD MORE COUNTIES AT THIS TIME. NEXT SHIFT WILL NEED TO
WATCH THIS. THE CLOUDS APPROACHING FROM AL MAY AFFECT THE
TEMPERATURES ALSO...DEPENDING ON IF AND WHEN THEY GET TO THE
FORECAST AREA AND HOW LONG THEY LINGER. DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED
THROUGH SUNDAY BUT SHOWERS SHOULD BE MOVING INTO NORTHWEST GA AFTER
00Z MONDAY WITH THE NEXT SHORT WAVE MOVING OUT OF THE TN VALLEY
SUNDAY NIGHT. MODERATING TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY AS WINDS TURN TO THE
SOUTHEAST.


FIRE WEATHER... A FIRE DANGER STATEMENT WILL MOST LIKELY BE NEEDED
FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON. WILL LET THE CURRENT ONE EXPIRE AT 00Z BEFORE
ISSUING THE NEXT. FUELS SHOULD CONTINUE TO DRY THIS AFTERNOON. A FEW
AREAS MAY BE BORDERLINE ON HUMIDITY OR TIME...BUT SEE NO REASON TO
TRY AND LEAVE THESE AREAS OUT.

41


.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
EXTENDED MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT. THE SURFACE FRONT PUSHES
THROUGH THE FORECAST ARE MONDAY MORNING AS THE UPPER LOW LIFTS
THROUGH NEW ENGLAND. WHILE MINOR DISCREPANCIES EXIST BETWEEN
ECMWF/GFS THEY BOTH AGREE ON TIMING OF FRONT AND BETTER DYNAMICS
ARE WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA. HAVE CONTINUED WITH JUST SHOWERS
MONDAY AS INSTABILITY IS LAGGING THE FRONT IN THE MORNING. BOTH
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH RAIN CHANCES EACH DAY AFTER
TUESDAY...AS WEAK WAVE DEVELOPS OVER EAST TEXAS AND MOVES TOWARD
WEST GEORGIA BY TUESDAY EVENING...AND THEN A SHORT WAVE TRACKS
INTO THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ON WEDNESDAY. IMPULSES MOVING THROUGH
THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL HAVE GOOD GULF MOISTURE AS HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST MID WEEK AND A COLD FRONT APPROACHES
BY WEEKS END. HAVE CONTINUED CHANCE POPS THURSDAY THROUGH EARLY
SATURDAY FOR NOW. HAVE STAYED CLOSE TO GUIDANCE FOR TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE PERIOD AS WELL.

ATWELL


&&

.CLIMATE...

RECORDS FOR 03-29

               MAX TEMPERATURE         MIN TEMPERATURE
  STATION      HIGH        LOW         HIGH        LOW
  -------  ----------  ----------  ----------  ----------
   KAHN      85 1928     47 1959     62 1977     25 1887
                                        1907
   KATL      84 1989     43 1894     65 1924     25 1887
                1945
   KCSG      89 2007     52 2001     67 1997     32 1955
                                                    1953
                                                    1948
   KMCN      87 1907     47 1926     67 1924     30 1966


&&

.AVIATION...
00Z UPDATE...
EXPECTING ATLANTA TAF SITES TO REMAIN ON THE NORTHERN FRINGES OF A
BLANKET OF HIGH MID LEVEL CEILINGS THAT SHOULD REMAIN JUST SOUTH OF
THE AIRPORTS THRU THE EVENING. CSG WILL REMAIN CLOUDY THRU THE
EVENING. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR ALL TAF SITES
THROUGH THE PERIOD... WITH THE MAIN THING BEING WINDS SHIFTING FROM
NW TO EAST BY 12Z SUN... THEN SE BY SUN AFTERNOON. WIND SPEEDS ON
SUNDAY SHOULD BE IN THE 7-9KT RANGE. AN UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL
INTERACT WITH THE MOIST SE FLOW TO POSSIBLY PRODUCE SOME SCT MID
CLOUDS BY 19-21Z SUN. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL RESULT IN BKN MID
CLOUDS BY 04-06Z MON.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...00Z UPDATE...
HIGH CONFIDENCE ALL ELEMENTS...EXCEPT MEDIUM ON CLOUDS SUN AFTERNOON AND
LATE EVENING.

39

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          28  59  44  66 /   5   0  40  50
ATLANTA         32  59  47  66 /   5   5  40  60
BLAIRSVILLE     23  54  42  61 /   5   5  60  50
CARTERSVILLE    27  60  46  66 /   5   5  70  50
COLUMBUS        33  63  48  73 /   5   0  20  60
GAINESVILLE     28  57  45  64 /   5   5  60  50
MACON           30  61  45  72 /   5   0  20  50
ROME            26  60  47  67 /   0  10  70  40
PEACHTREE CITY  29  60  46  68 /   5   0  40  60
VIDALIA         34  62  45  71 /   5   0  10  30

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 10 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: BALDWIN...BANKS...BARROW...BARTOW...BIBB...
BUTTS...CARROLL...CATOOSA...CHATTOOGA...CHEROKEE...CLARKE...
CLAYTON...COBB...COWETA...CRAWFORD...DADE...DAWSON...DEKALB...
DOUGLAS...FANNIN...FAYETTE...FLOYD...FORSYTH...GILMER...
GLASCOCK...GORDON...GREENE...GWINNETT...HALL...HANCOCK...
HARALSON...HARRIS...HEARD...HENRY...JACKSON...JASPER...
JEFFERSON...JONES...LAMAR...LUMPKIN...MADISON...MERIWETHER...
MONROE...MORGAN...MURRAY...NEWTON...NORTH FULTON...OCONEE...
OGLETHORPE...PAULDING...PICKENS...PIKE...POLK...PUTNAM...
ROCKDALE...SOUTH FULTON...SPALDING...TALBOT...TALIAFERRO...
TOWNS...TROUP...TWIGGS...UNION...UPSON...WALKER...WALTON...
WARREN...WASHINGTON...WHITE...WHITFIELD...WILKES...WILKINSON.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...41/39
LONG TERM....ATWELL
AVIATION...39



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