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Area Forecast Discussion

866
FXUS62 KFFC 161948
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
348 PM EDT THU APR 16 2015


.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
A WET/UNSETTLED PATTERN LOOKS TO PERSIST THROUGH THE SHORT TERM.

THE WEDGE PERSISTS THIS AFTERNOON AND SHOULD CONTINUE INTO THE
OVERNIGHT WITH THE WEDGE GRADUALLY BREAKING DOWN FRIDAY. SHOWERS
AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WERE INCREASING TO THE WEST AND SHOULD
CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHEAST...WITH HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS SHOWING
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT. THIS SHOULD CONTINUE INTO
FRIDAY MORNING. MOST UNSTABLE AIR WILL BE AROUND THE EDGE OF THE
COOLER AIR AND HAVE INCLUDED THUNDER FOR TONIGHT ALONG THE NORTHERN
AND WESTERN ZONES. SOME GENERAL INCREASE IN INSTABILITY FOR FRIDAY
AND HAVE MENTIONED THUNDER ACROSS THE AREA. MODELS HINT AT A BREAK
UNTIL NEXT WAVE APPROACHES THE FORECAST AREA ON SATURDAY...SO HAVE
REDUCED THE POPS FOR FRIDAY NIGHT.

FLOODING ISSUES MAY BE HIT AND MISS AND HAVE NOT ISSUED ANY FLOOD
WATCH. SOME LOCAL RIVER AND STREET FLOODING WILL CONTINUE TO BE
POSSIBLE.

TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON ARE RUNNING A BIT LOWER THAN FORECAST
AND MAY HOLD NEAR STEADY OVERNIGHT WITH THE EASTERLY WINDS. SOME
WARMING EXPECTED ON FRIDAY.

41

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NO MAJOR CHANGES MADE TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST. MODELS STILL A
BIT SLOWER WITH INCREASING DEEP MOISTURE ON SATURDAY WITH THE BEST
MOISTURE NOT BEGINNING TO MOVE IN UNTIL 00Z SUN. BEST OPPORTUNITY
FOR RAINFALL CONTINUES TO BE SUN/SUN NIGHT WITH HIGH SHOWERS
CHANCES AND A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA. PWS ACROSS
THE AREA INCREASE INTO THE 1.5 TO 1.75 INCH RANGE BEGINNING 00Z
SUN THROUGH 00Z MON. THIS WILL BRING PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY
RAIN THIS WEEKEND ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA. THE POTENTIAL FOR
LOCALIZED FLOODING WILL NEED TO BE CLOSELY MONITORED. A COLD FRONT
MOVES ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT AND RAIN CHANCES WILL
END MONDAY NIGHT. TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE DRY AS
THE WESTERLY UPPER FLOW DRIES OUT. A SHORT WAVE IN THE UPPER FLOW
THU MORNING WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED FOR POSSIBLE LIGHT PRECIP
CHANCES. HAVE INTRODUCE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIP FOR NOW.

TEMPERATURES ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED TO BE NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL.

01

PREVIOUS LONG TERM DISCUSSION /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
/ISSUED AT 505 AM EDT THU APR 16 2015/...WE LOOK TO BE IN BETWEEN
SYSTEMS FRIDAY NIGHT AS WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND A SHORT
WAVE RIDGE ALOFT PREDOMINATE. THIS WILL TRANSLATE TO ONLY LOW POPS
DURING THE EVENING FOR CENTRAL AND PARTS OF NORTH GEORGIA.
FORECAST LOW TEMPERATURES RUNNING 8-10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

MODELS NOW SLOWER WITH INCREASING DEEP MOISTURE ON SATURDAY IN THE
SW UPPER FLOW AND INCREASING SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW. BEST RAIN
CHANCES NOW LOOK TO BE LATE SATURDAY AND LIGHT.

DEEPEST MOISTURE INCREASES SATURDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUES INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT WITH HIGH SHOWERS CHANCES AND A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
THE AREA.

A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT AND RAIN CHANCES
WILL END MONDAY NIGHT.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE DRY AS THE WESTERLY UPPER
FLOW DRIES OUT. A SHORT WAVE IN THE UPPER FLOW LATE WEDNESDAY WILL
NEED TO BE WATCHED FOR POSSIBLE LIGHT PRECIP CHANCES.

UPDATED...
AT THIS TIME...A PERIOD OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS
WEEKEND...MOST SO FOR NORTHEAST GEORGIA. THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED FLOODING
WILL NEED TO BE CLOSELY MONITORED.

TEMPERATURES ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED TO BE NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL.

BDL

&&

AVIATION...
18Z UPDATE...
WEDGE IN PLACE WILL KEEP WIDESPREAD IFR CEILINGS IN PLACE THROUGH
THE NIGHT WITH SOME LIFR AFTER 06Z. EXPECT PATCHES OF BR/-DZ/-RA
ACROSS THE TAF SITES WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE.
SOME GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT TO CEILINGS AFTER 15Z FRIDAY.
WINDS EAST 10 TO 15KT DIMINISHING AFTER 00Z.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...18Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE ALL ELEMENTS.

41

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          54  72  58  81 /  30  40  20  40
ATLANTA         53  73  61  77 /  50  50  20  50
BLAIRSVILLE     52  71  54  75 /  60  40  20  40
CARTERSVILLE    53  73  57  79 /  60  50  20  50
COLUMBUS        57  73  61  79 /  70  60  20  50
GAINESVILLE     53  71  58  77 /  40  40  20  40
MACON           57  72  58  79 /  60  60  20  40
ROME            54  73  57  78 /  70  40  20  50
PEACHTREE CITY  53  73  57  77 /  60  50  20  50
VIDALIA         58  73  62  82 /  40  50  30  20

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...41
LONG TERM....01
AVIATION...41



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