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Area Forecast Discussion

051
FXUS62 KFFC 010646
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
246 AM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...

AREAS OF FOG HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL GEORGIA WHERE
THE BETTER COVERAGE OF RAIN WAS YESTERDAY. PATCHY DENSE FOG IS ALSO
POSSIBLE. GIVEN THOUGH THAT WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG IS NOT
EXPECTED...HAVE ONLY GONE WITH A SPS AT THIS POINT TO ADVERTISE THE
FOG. VISIBILITIES SHOULD INCREASE BY 13Z.

THE STALLED FRONT REMAINS ACROSS CENTRAL GEORGIA THIS MORNING AND
THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR A SIMILAR PATTERN TO WHAT WE SAW YESTERDAY
WITH THE BETTER CONVECTIVE COVERAGE ACROSS CENTRAL GEORGIA. WENT A
LITTLE FURTHER NORTH THAN GUIDANCE GIVEN HOW YESTERDAY PANNED OUT
BUT STILL KEPT POPS SOUTH OF AN ATL-AHN LINE. THE BEST INSTABILITY
/AROUND 2000 J/KG OF MUCAPE/ REMAINS ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHERN PORTION
OF THE CWA AND ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY IS ON THE LOWER SIDE FOR
SUMMER...STILL CANT RULE OUT A SEVERE STORM ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL
GEORGIA.

THE BOUNDARY SINKS SLIGHTLY FURTHER SOUTH ON SUNDAY...THUS PUSHING
THE BETTER MOISTURE FURTHER SOUTH. STILL HAVE THE MENTION OF TSRA FOR
CENTRAL GEORGIA...BUT BETTER CHANCES ARE CONFINED SLIGHTLY FURTHER
SOUTH.

BASED ON OBSERVATIONS AND TRENDS FROM FRIDAY...THINK THE MET
GUIDANCE IS TOO COOL FOR TODAY AND HAVE LEANED MORE TOWARDS THE MAV
FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY.

11


.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...

LONG TERM PERIOD BEGINS MUCH LIKE THE SHORT TERM DOES WITH SURFACE
TROUGH SOUTH OF THE AREA AND DEEP LAYER MOISTURE ALONG WITH IT.
AREA WILL BE ON THE SOUTHERN FRINGE OF 500 MB TROUGH AXIS BUT A
MAJORITY OF THE UPPER ENERGY WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE AREA
INITIALLY. AS A RESULT...THE DRIEST AIR OF THE WEEK SETTLES OVER
THE LOCAL AREA MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH INDICATIONS FOR MONDAY
AFTERNOON OF PRECIPITABLE WATER AROUND 0.75 INCHES. IF THIS IS
INDEED THE CASE...PRECIPITATION WILL BE NON EXISTENT FOR A
MAJORITY OF THE AREA WITH JUST EXTREME SOUTHERN SECTIONS
REQUIRING 20 PERCENT POPS.

AS MENTIONED...TUESDAY LOOKS JUST ABOUT AS DRY WITH PWATS AROUND
AN INCH ALTHOUGH SOUTHERN SECTIONS DO TRY TO MOISTEN UP JUST A
BIT. STILL THOUGH...NOT ENOUGH MOISTURE OR LIFT TO WARRANT
ANYTHING MORE THAN ISOLATED TSRA AT THIS POINT. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE ON THE INCREASE DURING THIS TIME PERIOD WITH A WIDE SWATH OF
UPPER 90S EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF CENTRAL GEORGIA AND CREEPING INTO
NORTH GA AS WELL.

SOUTHWEST FLOW AND SUBTLE DISTURBANCES IN LARGELY MEAN WESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT WILL RESULT IN AN INCREASE IN POPS ON WED. IT COULD BE
THAT THE ENTIRE AREA WILL RETURN TO CHANCE POPS BY THIS TIME
PERIOD BUT WILL LIMIT TO CENTRAL GA FOR NOW.

A DECENT FOR MID SUMMER COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE AREA THU
ACCOMPANIED BY A STRONG FULLY DEVELOPED UPPER TROUGH AXIS THROUGH
THU AFTERNOON. MUCH WILL DEPEND ON TIME BUT WILL NEED TO MONITOR
EVOLUTION OF THIS SYSTEM CLOSELY FOR SEVERE POTENTIAL AS STORMS
COULD BECOME MORE ORGANIZED IN NATURE GIVEN INCREASING SHEAR
PROFILES. HAVE INTRODUCED SOME LIKELY POPS FOR THE NW AND CHANCE
DURING THE OVERNIGHT THU ALTHOUGH THIS MAY BE MORE OF A NON
DIURNAL EVENT.

FRONT MOVES THROUGH ON FRIDAY BUT WILL CONTINUE TO SEE SOME STRONG
DISTURBANCES MOVE THROUGH IN NW FLOW. WILL THEREFORE HOLD ONTO
SOME LOW END POPS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.

DEESE

&&

.AVIATION... 06Z UPDATE... SOME SHOWERS HAVE STARTED TO DEVELOP
AGAIN ACROSS NORTH GEORGIA AND WILL NEED TO PARTICULARLY WATCH THE
ATL AREA SITES AND AHN AS ONE OF THESE SHOWERS COULD BRUSH THEM.
WIND IS A CHALLENGE AGAIN TODAY. ALTHOUGH THE DIRECTION IS
CURRENTLY ON THE NNW SIDE...BY SUNRISE THE WIND AT ATL SHOULD
BECOME NE.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...06Z UPDATE...
HIGH CONFIDENCE CIGS AND VSBYS. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ON WIND.

11

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          94  68  95  71 /  20  10  10  10
ATLANTA         93  72  93  72 /  20   5  10   5
BLAIRSVILLE     89  60  88  60 /  20   5  10   5
CARTERSVILLE    93  62  94  67 /  20   5  10   5
COLUMBUS        95  72  97  74 /  50  20  20  10
GAINESVILLE     91  68  91  71 /  20   5  10   5
MACON           94  70  95  72 /  50  20  20  10
ROME            94  62  94  65 /  20   0  10   5
PEACHTREE CITY  94  65  93  69 /  20  10  10   5
VIDALIA         92  74  94  74 /  60  50  30  20

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM....DEESE
AVIATION...11



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