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Area Forecast Discussion

568
FXUS62 KFFC 162348 AAA
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
745 PM EDT WED APR 16 2014

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
MOSTLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT TRANSITIONING TO SOUTHWEST OVERNIGHT. AT THE
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO NOSE INTO THE CWA SETTING UP
A WEDGE PATTERN THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING IN
THE NORTHEAST GULF SHOULD BRING SHOWERS BACK INTO THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN GA AREA BY THURSDAY NIGHT. HAVE INCLUDED LOW POPS ACROSS
MUCH OF CENTRAL GA BEGINNING 00Z FRIDAY. AIR MASS REMAINS STABLE
THROUGH THE PERIOD SO NO THUNDER HAS BEEN MENTIONED. TEMPERATURE
GUIDANCE LOOKS CLOSE THROUGH THE PERIOD. DUE TO EAST WINDS...HAVE
GENERALLY STAYED A BIT ON THE WARMER SIDE OF THE MINS AND TOWARD THE
COOLER SIDE OF THE MAXES. OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD BE ABOVE FREEZING
ACROSS THE CWA TONIGHT EXCEPT FOR THE NE CORNER. HAVE ISSUED ANOTHER
FREEZE WARNING FOR THAT AREA. WINDS SHOULD STAY UP A BIT OVERNIGHT
SO NOT EXPECTING FROST TO BE AN ISSUE. THINK CLOUDS SHOULD STAY OUT
OF THE CWA TONIGHT...BUT EASTERLY WINDS MAY BRING THEM WESTWARD
AFTER SUNRISE TOMORROW.

41

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LONG TERM MODELS ARE BEGINNING TO MERGE IN THEIR SOLUTIONS FOR THE
THE NEXT SYSTEM ON FRIDAY. ECMWF CONTINUES TO BE AGGRESSIVE IN
BRINGING PRECIP FURTHER NORTH BUT INDICATIONS IN THE 12Z RUNS HAVE
BEEN FOR THE GFS TO TREND TOWARD A MORE NORTHWARD SOLUTION AS
WELL. WILL CONTINUE WITH CHANCE POPS NORTH TO LIKELY POPS SOUTH ON
FRIDAY...TRANSITIONING TO EASTERN SECTIONS LATE FRIDAY.
INSTABILITY REMAINS VERY LOW WITH THIS SYSTEM AND ONLY THE EXTREME
SOUTH SHOULD SEE THUNDER CHANCES AND IT WILL BE MARGINAL AT BEST.

MORE DISCREPANCIES FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK AS WE TRANSITION TO MORE
ZONAL FLOW AND ISSUE BECOMES TRYING TO TIME EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES.
GFS IS QUICKER THAN THE ECMWF AND BRINGS FIRST SYSTEM THROUGH ON
MONDAY FOR THE NORTH. BOTH EVENTUALLY BRING A MAIN IMPULSE THROUGH
BUT THE GFS INDICATES IT WILL BE EARLY TU WHILE THE ECMWF IS
HINTING MORE TUE NIGHT. HAVE SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE FOR NOW BUT IF
TRENDS CONTINUE WITH SUBSEQUENT MODEL RUNS...WILL LIKELY NEED TO
INCREASE POP CHANCES. INSTABILITY CERTAINLY LOOKS MORE IMPRESSIVE
THAN OTHER SYSTEMS THIS YEAR AND WITH MODEST SHEAR WILL NEED TO BE
MONITORED CLOSELY FOR SEVERE POTENTIAL.

DEESE/16


AVIATION...
00Z UPDATE...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREDOMINATE THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THIS
FORECAST PERIOD. WILL LIKELY SEE MVFR CEILINGS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL GEORGIA BETWEEN 09-16Z. OTHERWISE CEILINGS BETWEEN 3-6KFT
WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA BY 18Z. EAST WINDS PREVAIL THROUGH THIS
FORECAST...GENERALLY 5-10KT THROUGH 12Z...INCREASING TO 10-14KT WITH
GUSTS 15-25KT AFTER.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...00Z UPDATE...
HIGH CONFIDENCE ON ALL ELEMENTS...EXCEPT MEDIUM ON CEILINGS FOR
TOMORROW.

20

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          36  63  47  64 /   0   5  10  40
ATLANTA         41  60  52  64 /   0   5  10  40
BLAIRSVILLE     31  61  42  65 /   0   5  10  40
CARTERSVILLE    36  62  47  67 /   0   5  10  40
COLUMBUS        42  66  53  69 /   0  10  30  40
GAINESVILLE     38  59  47  63 /   0   5  10  40
MACON           40  65  52  67 /   0   5  20  40
ROME            35  62  47  67 /   0   5  10  40
PEACHTREE CITY  36  63  50  67 /   0   5  10  40
VIDALIA         44  67  55  69 /   0  10  30  70

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR
THE FOLLOWING ZONES: FANNIN...LUMPKIN...TOWNS...UNION...WHITE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...41
LONG TERM....16
AVIATION...41








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