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Area Forecast Discussion

074
FXUS62 KFFC 201942
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
242 PM EST THU NOV 20 2014



.UPDATE...
NEAR TERM FORECAST LOOKS PRETTY GOOD. TEMPS A BIT WARMER THAN FCST
SO BUMPED THOSE UP A WHILE AGO. MAIN FORECAST IMPACTS WILL OCCUR
THIS WEEKEND.

SNELSON

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 624 AM EST THU NOV 20 2014/

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ANOTHER QUIET SHORT TERM FORECAST...ALL THE EXCITEMENT IS IN THE
EXTENDED. LARGE MEAN TROUGH STILL DOMINATES THE COUNTRY WITH
SHORTWAVE AXIS SLIDING THROUGH TODAY...MIGHT BE ENOUGH TO BRING A
FEW CLOUDS TO NORTH GEORGIA BUT NOT MUCH TO WRITE HOME ABOUT. TROUGH
BEGINS TO LIFT TONIGHT WITH CONFLUENT...NEARLY ZONAL FLOW DEVELOPING
ALOFT. THIS THEN TRANSITIONS TO WEAK RIDGING ALOFT THAT IS BUILDING
AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM THAT DEVELOPS IN THE SOUTHERN PLAINS ON
FRIDAY. SURFACE HIGH OVER THE OHIO VALLEY FRIDAY WILL RIDGE INTO THE
SOUTH EAST...WITH THE CENTER OF THE HIGH PROGGED TO PUSH ACROSS THE
APPALACHIANS FRIDAY NIGHT.

TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL FEEL ALMOST SPRING-LIKE COMPARED TO THE PAST
COUPLE OF DAYS...WITH LOWER 50S NORTH TO LOWER 60S SOUTH. MOISTURE
WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE OVERNIGHT SO LOWS WILL NOT DROP NEARLY AS
MUCH...AND MAY REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING IN SOME AREAS. ADD ANOTHER 3-5
DEGREES TO HIGHS ON FRIDAY AND WE ARE LOOKING AT A RATHER PLEASANT
END TO THE WORK WEEK.

TDP

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MODEL CONSENSUS IS FOR A DRY FORECAST FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY WITH
TEMPERATURES REMAINING BELOW NORMAL. HOWEVER THERE COULD BE ENOUGH
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN ON SATURDAY FOR A CHANCE OF DRIZZLE.

SIGNIFICANT CHANGES BEGIN SATURDAY NIGHT AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC CREATES AN OVERRUNNING FLOW OVER GA...
COMBINED WITH A DEVELOPING STORM SYSTEM OVER THE CENTRAL U.S.
DEEP GULF MOISTURE QUICKLY RETURNS WITH INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT. RAIN CHANCES INCREASE TO CATEGORICAL(80+ PERCENT) ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA THE SECOND HALF OF SATURDAY NIGHT.

THERE IS SOME SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL ON SUNDAY AS STRONG LOW
LEVEL WIND SHEAR MOVES OVER THE AREA WITH INCREASING INSTABILITY DURING
THE DAY AS A WARM FRONT MOVES NORTH OF THE STATE. THIS COULD LEAD
TO A SCATTERED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM THREAT WITH A FEW TORNADOES
POSSIBLE. PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN ARE LIKELY WITH THE PWS IN THE 1.5
TO 2 INCH RANGE. EXPECT RAINFALL AMOUNTS FROM 1 TO 2 INCHES LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. LOCALIZED
FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS THAT RECEIVED 2
INCHES OR MORE EARLIER IN THE WEEK OR IN URBAN AREAS DUE TO
CLOGGED STORM DRAINS FROM THE FALLING LEAVES.

THE STRONG SW FLOW ALOFT KEEPS THINGS UNSETTLED MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. SOME THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES SUNDAY NIGHT THEN JUST SHOWER CHANCES MONDAY NIGHT.
MODEL CONSENSUS CONTINUES SLIGHT CHANCE POPS TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY
NIGHT AND MAY BE A LITTLE OVERDONE. ANY PRECIP TUESDAY NIGHT OVER
THE FAR N COULD BE A RAIN/SNOW SHOWER MIX. UPPER TROUGH PASSES BY
ON WEDNESDAY WITH A CHANCE OF FLURRIES OR SPRINKLES OVER THE FAR
N.

A WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH HIGHS RETURNING
INTO THE 60S AND 70S FOR MANY AREAS. TEMPERATURES FALLING BELOW NORMAL
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

BDL

CLIMATE...

RECORDS FOR 11-20

               MAX TEMPERATURE         MIN TEMPERATURE
  STATION      HIGH        LOW         HIGH        LOW
  -------  ----------  ----------  ----------  ----------
   KAHN      80 1942     32 1914     63 1985     17 1914
   KATL      79 1979     28 1914     64 1985     14 1914
                1942
   KCSG      81 1991     49 1972     69 1985     27 1951
   KMCN      81 1991     33 1914     68 1985     19 1914

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z UPDATE...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THRU 00Z SAT. NO CLOUDS OR PRECIP
EXPECTED.NW WINDS WILL VEER TO NE FRI MORNING BUT SPEEDS WILL
REMAIN 3-6KTS.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...18Z UPDATE...
HIGH CONFIDENCE ON ALL ELEMENTS.

SNELSON

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          62  33  58  32 /   0   0   0   5
ATLANTA         61  37  58  38 /   0   0   0   5
BLAIRSVILLE     55  28  54  30 /   0   0   0   5
CARTERSVILLE    59  30  57  33 /   0   0   0   5
COLUMBUS        63  39  63  40 /   0   0   0   5
GAINESVILLE     57  35  56  36 /   0   0   0   5
MACON           66  33  63  36 /   0   0   0   5
ROME            59  31  56  33 /   0   0   0   5
PEACHTREE CITY  62  34  59  35 /   0   0   0   5
VIDALIA         66  37  63  40 /   0   0   0   5

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SNELSON
LONG TERM....17
AVIATION...SNELSON



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