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Area Forecast Discussion

875
FXUS62 KFFC 281930
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
330 PM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015


.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAS BEEN SLIGHTLY HIGHER TODAY
THAN OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS AS INCREASED MOISTURE HAS PUSHED
INTO THE AREA. WITH RELATIVELY UNIMPRESSIVE INSTABILITY IN PLACE...
MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN BENIGN AND BELOW SEVERE LIMITS.
FOR WEDNESDAY...THE CWA WILL REMAIN ON THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE UPPER
RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. WITH PLENTY OF MOISTURE
REMAINING IN PLACE...SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP BY MIDDAY AND
INCREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. INSTABILITY WILL AGAIN BE
MODERATE AND MID-LEVELS WILL BE QUITE MOIST...SO EXPECT THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY TO BE BELOW SEVERE LIMITS AGAIN.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN HOT ON WEDNESDAY WITH WIDESPREAD HEAT
INDICES AROUND OR JUST OVER 100 DEGREES. WITH THAT BEING SAID...THE
CURRENT FORECAST IS THAT MOST AREAS WILL REMAIN BELOW THE HEAT
ADVISORY CRITERIA OF 105 DEGREES FOR TOMORROW AFTERNOON. FOR THIS
REASON NO HEAT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED AT THIS TIME.

RW

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A PATTERN CHANGE IS EXPECTED BY LATE WEEK AS A COLD FRONT STALLS
ACROSS THE AREA.

CWFA WILL BE ON THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF A 500MB HIGH CENTER THROUGH
LATE THURSDAY. THE RIDGE WILL START TO RETROGRADE WESTWARD AS A A
LONGWAVE TROUGH DIGS ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST FRIDAY. THE TROUGH IS
EXPECTED TO STAY IN PLACE THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
BEFORE THE HIGH CENTER BUILDS BACK EAST.

AT THE SURFACE...A FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY
INTO FRIDAY. THE BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO STALL NEAR THE SOUTHERN
CWFA THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEKEND...BEFORE BECOMING DIFFUSE EARLY
NEXT WEEK. SEVERAL WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE WILL RIDE EAST ALONG THE
FRONT...EACH ENHANCING THE CHANCES FOR CONVECTION.

ONE OF THE MAIN CHANGES TO THE LONG TERM FORECAST WAS TO RAISE POPS
IN THE SOUTH FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.

NLISTEMAA


&&

.AVIATION...
18Z UPDATE... DIURNAL CUMULUS CLOUDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE
EVENING WITH SCATTERED CONVECTION. EXPECT SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
COVERAGE TO DECREASE AFTER SUNSET. WINDS SHOULD REMAIN LIGHT AND
GENERALLY FROM THE NORTHWEST FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE PERIOD. ON
WEDNESDAY EXPECT ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP
BY MIDDAY.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...18Z UPDATE...

MEDIUM ON WIND DIRECTION. HIGH ON ALL OTHER ELEMENTS.

RW

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          73  93  74  94 /  30  30  30  40
ATLANTA         75  91  75  92 /  20  30  30  40
BLAIRSVILLE     67  87  66  89 /  30  40  20  50
CARTERSVILLE    73  92  73  93 /  20  30  20  40
COLUMBUS        77  96  75  94 /  20  30  30  40
GAINESVILLE     74  90  74  91 /  30  30  30  40
MACON           73  95  73  93 /  20  30  30  40
ROME            73  93  74  93 /  20  30  20  40
PEACHTREE CITY  73  92  73  92 /  20  30  30  40
VIDALIA         75  96  75  94 /  20  30  30  40

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RW
LONG TERM....NLISTEMAA
AVIATION...RW



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