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Area Forecast Discussion

722
FXUS62 KFFC 180143
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
943 PM EDT FRI APR 17 2015



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 359 PM EDT FRI APR 17 2015/

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
ACTIVE PATTERN REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE CWA AND WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. RAIN HAS SET UP ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA THIS
AFTERNOON AND WITH A SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS TONIGHT...RAIN WILL
CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT. COULD BE A SHORT LULL FOR A FEW HOURS
OVERNIGHT...BUT EVEN IF RAIN DOES DECREASE...WE SHOULD STILL HAVE
SOME DRIZZLE ACROSS THE CWA WITH THE LOW CEILINGS. WEAK RIDGING
BUILDS IN ALOFT FOR SATURDAY HELPING TO LIMIT THE RAIN CHANCES
DURING THE DAY...THUS HAVE LIMITED POPS TO THE CHANCE RANGE...THIS
COULD BE ON THE LOW SIDE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE CWA THOUGH.
AS A SHORTWAVE PUSHES INTO THE PLAINS SATURDAY NIGHT...THE UPPER
LEVEL FLOW RETURNS TO THE SW AND EXPECT POPS TO QUICKLY INCREASE FOR
SATURDAY NIGHT.

INSTABILITY REMAINS VERY LIMITED THROUGH THE SHORT TERM....EVEN
DEBATED TAKING OUT THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR THIS
AFTERNOON BUT DECIDED TO LEAVE IT IN FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND AGAIN
FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

MAIN CONCERN REMAINS FLOOD POTENTIAL. SEE THE HYDRO SECTION FOR
DETAILS.

TEMPERATURES ARE A CHALLENGE. WITH THE CLOUDS HOLDING IN PLACE
THROUGH THE DAY...HAVE HAD TO ADJUST THE HIGH TEMPERATURES DOWN
TODAY A FEW TIMES. OVERALL HAVE LEANED TOWARDS A BLEND OF
GUIDANCE...BUT MAY BE TOO LOW FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS.

11

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO FORECAST PER RECENT BLEND OF GUIDANCE.
STILL LOOKING AT SUNDAY AND MONDAY BEING MAIN CONCERN FOR FLOODING
POTENTIAL AND STORM CHANCES AHEAD OF FRONTAL SYSTEM. DISCREPANCIES
EXIST LATER IN THE PERIOD WITH PROGRESSION OF THE UPPER TROUGH AND
ANY DISTURBANCE INFLUENCES SO LEANED MORE TOWARD PERSISTENCE. PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

BAKER

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
/ISSUED 359 AM EDT FRI APR 17 2015/
MAIN CONCERN IN THE LONG TERM CONTINUES TO BE INCREASING CHANCES
FOR THUNDERSTORMS ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY AHEAD OF A FRONTAL SYSTEM
THAT PUSHES ACROSS THE AREA LATE ON MONDAY. AT THIS TIME... MODELS
ARE INDICATING THE BEST CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING... THEN AGAIN BY MONDAY AFTERNOON JUST AHEAD
OF THE COLD FRONT. IT APPEARS A FEW STORMS COULD BECOME STRONG ON
SUNDAY AS MODELS SHOW A SERIES OF IMPULSES AND INCREASING
DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT INTERACTING WITH AT LEAST 1000-1500 MUCAPE
AND 20-25KT OF 0-1KM SHEAR DURING AFTERNOON HEATING. ALTHOUGH THE
CHANCE FOR STORMS CONTINUE SUNDAY NIGHT... IT APPEARS THE STRONG
STORM POTENTIAL DIMINISHES AS MODEL INSTABILITIES AND SHEAR VALUES
WEAKEN WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. THE STRONG STORM POTENTIAL
SEEMS TO RETURN BY MONDAY AFTERNOON... WITH INCREASING CAPE AND
SHEAR NOTED AHEAD AND ALONG THE COLD FRONT THAT PUSHES INTO NW GA
AROUND NOONISH ON MONDAY...THEN ACROSS THE REST OF THE FORECAST
AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. IN ADDITION TO
THE STRONG STORM POTENTIAL... RAIN COULD BE LOCALLY HEAVY AT
TIMES... WITH MODEL AND HPC QPF VALUES FROM SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY SHOWING WIDESPREAD 1 TO 2 INCHES... WITH ISOLATED HIGHER
AMOUNTS LIKELY. THESE AMOUNTS OVER ALREADY MOIST SOIL CONDITIONS
WILL RUN OFF QUICKLY AND ADD TO ALREADY SWOLLEN CREEKS AND RIVERS.
WILL BE MONITORING CLOSELY THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW STRONG STORMS
AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

OTHERWISE... MODELS AGREE ON HIGH PRESSURE FINALLY BRINGING MUCH
NEEDED DRIER CONDITIONS BACK TO THE AREA FOR AT LEAST TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY FOR THURSDAY... AS A DEVELOPING
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OUT WEST... AND ACTIVE WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT MAY
BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BACK TO THE
AREA BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

EXPECTING NEAR OR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE LONG
TERM... WITH THE COOLEST TEMPS EXPECTED MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY
NIGHT AS LOWS DIP INTO THE 40S AND 50S FOR MOST AREAS.

39

HYDROLOGY...
HAVE SEEN MULTIPLE DAYS OF RAIN THAT WILL CONTINUE. EVEN
WITH ADDITIONAL RAINFALL EXPECTED THOUGH...ONLY EXPECTING AROUND AN
INCH OR LESS IN THE SHORT TERM. AT THIS POINT...RAIN WILL CONTINUE
TO KEEP THE GROUND SATURATED...BUT STILL NOT ENOUGH RAIN EXPECTED
FOR A FLOOD WATCH. STILL CANNOT RULE OUT LOCALIZED FLOODING THOUGH.

11

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z UPDATE...
DEGRADING CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AS RAIN MOVES EAST OF THE
TAF SITES. SOME DRIZZLE MAY LINGER THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD.
EXPECT IFR TO LIFR BY 05-07Z...WITH SLOW IMPROVEMENT AFTER 14-15Z.
EAST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 5-7KT BY MID MORNING. THUNDER
POTENTIAL JUST HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE PROB30 FOR 21-00Z.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...00Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ON CIGS AND VSBYS.
HIGH CONFIDENCE ON ALL OTHER ELEMENTS.

31

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          59  77  63  73 /  80  40  90  80
ATLANTA         59  76  64  74 /  70  50  90  80
BLAIRSVILLE     54  74  59  69 /  60  40  90  90
CARTERSVILLE    57  76  63  75 /  50  50  90  80
COLUMBUS        61  78  66  76 /  80  50  90  80
GAINESVILLE     58  75  62  71 /  60  40  90  80
MACON           60  78  65  76 /  80  40  80  80
ROME            57  77  63  74 /  40  50  90  80
PEACHTREE CITY  58  76  64  74 /  80  50  90  80
VIDALIA         63  79  67  77 /  70  40  80  80

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...31
LONG TERM....17
AVIATION...31



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