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Area Forecast Discussion

846
FXUS62 KFFC 300025
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
825 PM EDT MON JUN 29 2015



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 329 PM EDT MON JUN 29 2015/

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
THE SHORT TERM STARTS OFF QUIET BUT WITH AN APPROACHING
FRONTAL SYSTEM THINGS CHANGE RATHER QUICKLY. LOOKS LIKE N GA WILL
BEGIN TO SEE PRECIPITATION LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING AS THE
FIRST IN A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES SPREAD SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE STATE. HAVE CONTINUED CLOSE TO THE CURRENT
FORECAST OF INCREASING POPS FROM NORTH TO SOUTH BEGINNING WITH SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS BY 00Z TUE. THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE SHORT
TERM AND ARE SHOWING ENOUGH INSTABILITY AND DYNAMICS TO SUPPORT SOME
STRONG DIURNALLY DRIVEN STORMS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SPC
DOES HAVE MUCH OF NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA OUTLOOKED IN A MARGINAL
RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS. THE FRONT ITSELF DOES MOVE INTO NORTH GA BY
06-12Z TUE AND CONTINUES MOVING SOUTH INTO CENTRAL GA THROUGH WED
MORNING. IT LOOKS LIKE THE MODELS WANT TO STALL THE FRONT ACROSS
CENTRAL GA WHICH IS WHAT USUALLY HAPPENS THIS TIME OF YEAR. AS OR
TEMPS HAVE  USED A BLEND FOR TEMPERATURES WITH A SLIGHT WARMING
TREND THROUGH TUESDAY.

01

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST.

FRONTAL BOUNDARY LINGERS ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY INTO THE MID
ATLANTIC THROUGH MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. A BROAD LONGWAVE
TROUGH REMAINS PARKED ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. THROUGH
FRIDAY...BEFORE FLATTENING OUT FOR THE WEEKEND.

SEVERAL UPPER DISTURBANCES ARE PROGGED TO MOVE THROUGH THE BASE OF
THE TROUGH THROUGH FRIDAY...BRINGING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
THE CWFA. THE HIGHEST CHANCES OF PRECIP WILL BE ACROSS THE
NORTH...CLOSEST TO THE UPPER ENERGY.

WITH THE LONGWAVE TROUGH IN PLACE...TEMPS WILL BE RIGHT AROUND
NORMAL TO A DEGREE OR TWO BELOW.

THE GFS HAS COME AROUND TO THE EC SOLUTION...WITH THE FLATTENING OUT
OF THE TROUGH FOR THE WEEKEND.

NLISTEMAA

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z UPDATE...
CURRENT LINE OF TSRA OVER TN IS DIMINISHING AS IT APPROACHES GA
AND EXPECT IT WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE TAF SITES FOR THE OVERNIGHT
PERIOD. JUST SOUTH OF WHERE THIS COMPLEX ENDS UP WILL BE WHERE
INITIAL TSRA DEVELOPMENT WILL BE ON TUE. THIS POSITION REMAINS
UNCLEAR AND UNCERTAINTY IS RATHER HIGH ON TSRA CHANCES AND
TIMING. FOR NOW WENT WITH A LONGER PROB30 GROUP FOR ATL AND
SURROUNDING SITES WITH SOME REFINEMENT HOPEFULLY WITH SUBSEQUENT
TAF ISSUANCES.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...00Z UPDATE...
HIGH ON ALL ELEMENTS.

DEESE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          68  91  67  90 /  20  50  40  40
ATLANTA         72  87  69  86 /  20  50  40  40
BLAIRSVILLE     65  80  63  81 /  40  60  50  60
CARTERSVILLE    69  86  68  87 /  40  70  40  50
COLUMBUS        73  91  70  89 /  20  40  40  40
GAINESVILLE     69  87  67  86 /  30  60  40  50
MACON           70  92  69  91 /  10  40  40  40
ROME            69  86  69  87 /  40  70  40  60
PEACHTREE CITY  68  88  68  88 /  20  50  40  40
VIDALIA         72  93  72  92 /  10  30  30  40

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DEESE
LONG TERM....41
AVIATION...DEESE



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