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Area Forecast Discussion

857
FXUS62 KFFC 161937
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
337 PM EDT TUE SEP 16 2014



.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
COLD FRONT HAS FINALLY STARTED PUSHING INTO NORTH GEORGIA AT AFD
TIME...PUSHED BY THE STRENGTHENING TROUGH ALOFT AND SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING TOWARD THE OHIO VALLEY. DRIER DEWPOINTS ARE STILL
MAINLY BACK IN TENNESSEE BUT THEY ARE AT LEAST HEADING THIS WAY. FOR
THIS AFTERNOON...WEAK VORT LOBE PUSHING ACROSS ESPECIALLY SOUTHERN
GEORGIA IS HELPING TO FIRE CONVECTION IN THE WARM AND UNSTABLE
AIRMASS SOUTH OF THE FRONT. KEPT POPS LINGERING ACROSS PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL GEORGIA JUST PAST 06Z TONIGHT BUT FOR THE MOST PART EXPECT
QUIET CONDITIONS THEREAFTER. RESIDENTS OF NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA
WILL NOTICE QUITE A MARKED DECREASE IN TEMPS TONIGHT FROM LAST
NIGHT...CURRENT FORECAST IS RUNNING ON AVERAGE 4-5 DEGREES COOLER
WITH MUCH DRIER DEWPOINTS IN PLACE AS WELL. MAY SEE SOME PATCHY
DENSE FOG IN THE MORNING BEFORE WINDS START KICKING UP BEHIND THE
FRONT.

FOR WEDNESDAY...AGAIN A FEW DEGREES COOLER BEHIND THE FRONT THAN
WHAT WE ARE SEEING THIS AFTERNOON AT LEAST ACROSS MOST OF NORTH
GEORGIA DUE TO THE WEAK COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT...THOUGH
SOME AREAS IN CENTRAL GEORGIA MAY ACTUALLY BE A DEGREE OR SO WARMER.
POPS ARE LIMITED TO EXTREME SOUTHEAST ZONES AS THE DIGGING UPPER
TROUGH ALOFT PUSHES THE BEST MOISTURE WAY SOUTH TOWARDS THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA. TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY NIGHT DROP ANOTHER FEW DEGREES
WITH DRY AIR REALLY DOMINATING THE AREA...WITH LOWS ACTUALLY PROGGED
A COUPLE OF DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. HIGHS THURSDAY ANOTHER DEGREE OR
SO COOLER THAN WEDNESDAY WITH CONTINUED WEAK COLD AIR ADVECTION. FOR
NOW HAVE NOT INCLUDED POPS THURSDAY AFTERNOON BUT ANOTHER AREA OF
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DIVE DOWN THE CONFLUENT FLOW ALOFT INTO THE GREAT
LAKES WHICH MAY BE ENOUGH TO SWING WINDS AROUND TO THE EAST AND
POSSIBLY ENHANCE POTENTIAL FOR OROGRAPHIC PRECIPITATION. TOO FAR OUT
TO REALLY PIN DOWN ANY DETAILS AT THIS POINT. OVERALL THOUGH...WE
ARE LOOKING AT MUCH NICER FALL-LIKE CONDITIONS BUILDING IN BEHIND
THE FRONT.

TDP

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
OVERALL EXTENDED FORECAST LOOKS TO BE ON TRACK. HAVE MADE MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS TO ACCOUNT FOR LATEST
MODEL TRENDS. NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE. PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION STILL APPLIES AND IS INCLUDED BELOW...

31


/ISSUED AT 425 AM EDT TUE SEP 16 2014/
THE EXTENDED FORECAST STARTS OUT WITH THE SECOND FRONT SOUTH OF
THE CWA AND A DRIER AIRMASS MOVING INTO NORTH AN CENTRAL GEORGIA.
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDS IN BEHIND THE SECOND FRONT WHICH
WILL ALSO HELP TO SUPPRESS ANY PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF AGREE WITH THE DRIER AIR MASS MOVING
IN...BUT THEY ALSO AGREE THAT THERE WILL STILL BE A BIT OF
MOISTURE LINGERING OVER EASTERN AND SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF THE STATE
THROUGH DAY 7. THE MODELS ARE SHOWING LESS MOISTURE THAN THE PAST
FEW RUNS O HAVE DECIDE TO PULL ALL PRECIP OUT OF THE FORECAST THU
THROUGH SAT. A THIRD FRONT MOVES INTO NORTH GA LATE SUNDAY SO WILL
KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIP SUN/MON. MODELS ALSO CONTINUE TO
INDICATE COOLER TEMPS ARE IN STORE FOR THE STATE...ESPECIALLY WITH
THE COOLER DRIER AIR MASS MOVING IN. LOOKING T HIGH TEMPS IN THE
70S AND 80S THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.

01

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z UPDATE...
EVERYONE HAS IMPROVED TO VFR THIS MORNING...BUT STILL WITH SCT
MVFR CLOUDS HANGING AROUND. CONTINUED VCSH TREND FOR NORTHERN TAFS
AND ADJUSTED TIMING OF TEMPO A TAD LATER FOR MCN/CSG AS NOT YET
SEEING MUCH IN THE WAY OF TSRA YET. EXPECT VFR CIGS THE REST OF
THE PERIOD /EXCEPT POSSIBLY IN TSRA FOR MCN AND CSG/...BUT EXPECT
MVFR TO POSSIBLY IFR FOG DEVELOPING AT MOST SITES. FEW-SCT LOW VFR
CU EXPECTED 3-5KFT FOR WEDNESDAY BUT OTHERWISE NO ISSUES. WINDS
GENERALLY NW THROUGH THE PERIOD BUT AHN MAY SEE SOME VRB.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...18Z UPDATE...
HIGH ON ALL ELEMENTS.

TDP

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          65  82  61  82 /  20   5   5  10
ATLANTA         67  82  62  81 /  20   0   0   5
BLAIRSVILLE     59  76  54  77 /  20   5   5   5
CARTERSVILLE    63  82  56  81 /  20   5   5   5
COLUMBUS        69  88  65  86 /  20   5   0   5
GAINESVILLE     65  80  61  79 /  20   5   5   5
MACON           67  88  61  85 /  30   5   5   5
ROME            63  81  56  82 /  10   5   5   5
PEACHTREE CITY  64  84  57  83 /  20   5   0   5
VIDALIA         69  89  67  87 /  40  20  10  10

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TDP
LONG TERM....31
AVIATION...TDP





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