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Area Forecast Discussion

155
FXUS62 KFFC 230535 AAC
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
1235 AM EST SUN NOV 23 2014



.UPDATE...
LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN HAS BEEN MOVING INTO THE AREA THIS EVENING
FROM THE SOUTH. HAVE MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO ACCOUNT FOR TRENDS
IN TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS. HOURLY EDITS WERE ALSO MADE TO POP
AND WX GRIDS. NO ADDITIONAL UPDATES ARE PLANNED AT THIS TIME.

31

&&

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 720 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 246 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014/

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE CAROLINAS IS
SHIFTING EAST BUT STILL RIDGING IN PLACE DOWN THE APPALACHIANS. AS A
WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTHWARD TONIGHT AND POSITIONS ITSELF ACROSS THE
CWA...WILL SEE CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION INCREASE ACROSS THE CWA FROM
SOUTH TO NORTH. HARD TO TELL AT THIS POINT HOW FAR NORTH THE WARM
FRONT WILL MAKE IT INITIALLY BUT THIS WILL IMPACT TEMPERATURES
AND SEVERE POTENTIAL. PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY WITH
BASICALLY A 100 PERCENT CHANCE OF RAIN FOR THE CWA. FINALLY THE
UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE ACROSS TX THIS AFTERNOON WILL LIFT NORTH
INTO THE TN VALLEY AND EVENTUALLY BEGIN PUSHING SOME OF THE SYSTEM
OUT OF THE CWA SUNDAY NIGHT.

BEST SEVERE POTENTIAL CONTINUES TO BE ACROSS CENTRAL GEORGIA. MUCAPE
VALUES REACH THE 500-1000J/KG RANGE SUNDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE FAR
SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE CWA...WHICH IS PRETTY DECENT FOR THIS TIME
OF YEAR. GFS SHOWS 30-40KTS OF LOW LEVEL SHEAR ON SUNDAY...HOWEVER
THE NAM IS MUCH MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH SOME VALUES EXCEEDING 50KTS.
THE NAM MAY BE SLIGHTLY OVERDONE...BUT EVEN SO IF THE NAM OR GFS
VALUES ARE OBSERVED ON SUNDAY...WOULD EXPECT TO SEE SOME SEVERE
WEATHER ACROSS CENTRAL GEORGIA INCLUDING THE POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING
WINDS AND A FEW TORNADOES. CANNOT RULE OUT SOME STRONG STORMS ACROSS
NORTH GEORGIA AS THEY HAVE DECENT SHEAR AND MUCAPE VALUES AROUND 100-
300J/KG BUT LESS LIKELY ACROSS THIS AREA. LOOKING AT THE LOCAL
WRF...IT IMPLIES WIDESPREAD RAIN ACROSS THE CWA BY SUNRISE...THEN
POTENTIALLY A FEW BREAKS IN THE PRECIP...THEN MORE CONVECTION IN THE
AFTERNOON AS THE FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL WAVE PUSHES
THROUGH.

BESIDES SEVERE...HYDROLOGY IS THE OTHER ASPECT TO THIS SYSTEM. SEE
THE HYDRO SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS.

DO NOT HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON TEMPS FOR TONIGHT AND TOMORROW WITH THE
WEATHER SYSTEM MOVING IN. WILL BE WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT WITH CLOUDS
AND WARM FRONT LIFTING ACROSS GA. FOR SUNDAY...BIG DIFFERENCES
BETWEEN THE MAV AND MET. MET IS MUCH COLDER AND KEEPS AREA CLOUDY
WHILE THE MAV IS WARMER AND TRIES TO PUSH CLOUDS OUT IN THE LATE
AFTERNOON. COULD SEE SOME BREAKS TOMORROW AFTERNOON BUT THINK IT
WOULD BE LIMITED SO STAYED IN THE MIDDLE OF GUIDANCE.

11

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE SUNDAY SYSTEM WILL BE EXITING RAPIDLY LEAVING A FEW SHOWERS
ACROSS THE EASTERN AND NORTHERN AREAS OF THE CWA MONDAY. BY MONDAY
NIGHT DRY AIR WILL HAVE SPREAD ACROSS THE CWA ENDING THE PRECIP. THE
NEXT SHORT WAVE WILL DROP INTO THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY TUESDAY. THIS WILL HELP KICK THE UPPER TROUGH EASTWARD AS
WELL AS GENERATE ANOTHER SYSTEM OVER THE EASTERN GULF. THIS WILL
SPREAD MOISTURE INTO THE CWA LATE TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL EXIT THE CWA BY LATE WEDNESDAY AS DRY AIR
SPREADS OVER THE CWA. IT SHOULD REMAIN DRY FOR THE REST OF THE LONG
TERM.

17

HYDROLOGY...
SOME MUCH NEEDED RAIN WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT
AND SUNDAY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1-2 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTH
GEORGIA WITH AROUND 2-2.5 ACROSS CENTRAL GEORGIA. WITH THE HIGHER
AMOUNTS GENERALLY EXPECTED ACROSS CENTRAL GEORGIA...THE GROUND
SHOULD BE ABLE TO HANDLE THIS MUCH PRECIP. EVEN SO WITH ISOLATED
HIGHER AMOUNTS...LOCALIZED FLOODING IS POSSIBLE.

&&

AVIATION...
06Z UPDATE...

MVFR CEILINGS SPREADING NORTH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AT THIS TIME
WITH ALL AREAS EXPECTED TO BE MVFR OR LOWER BY 08Z AND IFR OR LOWER
BY 12Z. AREAS OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN ALSO SPREADING NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE AREA AND RAIN IS EXPECTED TO BE PREVALENT CROSS THE AREA
THROUGH 00Z WITH MVFR OR LOWER VISIBILITIES AREAWIDE AFTER 10Z.
EMBEDDED...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED...THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA BETWEEN 12Z AND 00Z. EAST WINDS 6-10KT WILL
INCREASE TO 8-12KT WITH GUSTS 17-22KT AFTER 12Z...BECOMING
SOUTHEASTERLY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENTUALLY SOUTHWESTERLY
BETWEEN 00Z AND 06Z.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...06Z UPDATE...

MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ON ALL ELEMENTS EXCEPT HIGH FOR WIND.

20

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          44  55  53  68 /  90 100  70  20
ATLANTA         46  57  54  66 /  90 100  40  10
BLAIRSVILLE     40  54  47  61 /  70 100  60  20
CARTERSVILLE    44  57  51  64 /  80 100  50  10
COLUMBUS        52  65  59  70 / 100 100  40  10
GAINESVILLE     44  54  49  64 /  90 100  60  10
MACON           53  66  61  73 / 100 100  60  20
ROME            44  58  53  63 /  80 100  50  10
PEACHTREE CITY  47  58  54  67 / 100 100  40  10
VIDALIA         56  71  65  75 / 100 100  80  30

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...31
LONG TERM....DEESE
AVIATION...31



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