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Area Forecast Discussion

878
FXUS62 KFFC 241103 AAA
AFDFFC

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
703 AM EDT WED AUG 24 2016

.Update...
Update for Aviation.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 350 AM EDT WED AUG 24 2016/

SHORT TERM /Today through Thursday/...
A rather strong surface high remains parked over the mid-atlantic
coast with its ridge down the eastern Appalachians and across the
forecast area. This ridge remains across the area through Thursday
but weakens some. An upper ridge over the southern states centered
about southern MS is forecast to drift over the TN valley and southern
Appalachians through Thursday.

The main concern today is a weak short wave moving along in the
southern edge of the westerlies and brings in some deeper moisture and
lift. Models rather consistent developing scattered showers and
thunderstorms over n GA later this morning in an area of enhanced
instability. Precip potential will favor n GA and much of the western
border of the forecast area. With slightly drier air and instability
lacking over areas e and s...little or no convection is expected.

Any showers and storms over the area starting tonight are expected to
diminish quickly with the evening.

With the upper ridge established over the TN valley and southern
Appalachians for Thursday...the only place where there is potential
for afternoon showers and storms is the mountains of n GA where some
instability and the influence of the terrain will enhance convective
potential.

Forecast high temperatures are running near normal today and slightly
above normal for Thursday. Low temperatures are running near normal
for tonight.

Overall confidence is medium to high.

BDL

LONG TERM /Thursday Night through Tuesday/...

Long range models show good agreement through Friday with strong
mid and upper ridge of high pressure dominating across the
southeast and holding rain chances to only a slight to low chance
across mainly parts of north Georgia as a weak surface trough
sags into the TN Valley. Over the weekend... both ECMWF and GFS
shift the 500MB ridge eastward to the mid Atlantic Coast which
allows the associated surface ridge to build along the New
England coast. This overall synoptic pattern results in a deep
layer easterly flow across the state that appears to persist over
the weekend and into early next week. The forecast and overall
concern gets real interesting by late this weekend and into early
next week as the ECMWF is taking a surface low across south
Florida on Sunday... across the central Gulf Monday-Tuesday and
then inland along the TX/LA border early on Wednesday of next
week. In contrast... the GFS is taking this surface low up along
eastern FL Monday-Tuesday... then along the GA coast on Wednesday
and finally turning the low pressure system northeast and out to
sea by end week. Now the overall synoptic pattern and deep
easterly flow would favor a westward movement of any low pressure
system moving toward FL or into the southeast-eastern Gulf... and
therefore the latest ECMWF solution seems to be a bit more
reasonable at this time. Either way... both long range models
are showing a low pressure system pushing up into FL by late
weekend or early next week... so all interest across GA and the
deep south are greatly encouraged to closely monitor the tropics
over the next several days.

39

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z UPDATE...
High variable clouds and heights range from LIFR-VFR. Lower
clouds will improve to 4000-6000 ft sct-bkn. Best chances for
convection around the ATL area and N and W. Less so for AHN and
MCN. Surface winds light and variable becoming ESE less than 10
kts.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...12Z UPDATE...
Low confidence for showers or thunderstorms to affect ATL. Low to
Medium confidence for IFR-MVFR ceilings this morning. High
confidence for all other elements.

BDL

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          88  69  92  71 /  20   5   5   5
Atlanta         88  71  91  73 /  30  10   5   5
Blairsville     82  64  87  67 /  40  10  40  20
Cartersville    88  70  91  71 /  40  10  10  10
Columbus        92  71  93  71 /  30   5   5   5
Gainesville     85  70  90  72 /  40  10  10  10
Macon           91  69  93  69 /  10   5   5   5
Rome            90  70  92  72 /  40  10  10  10
Peachtree City  89  68  91  68 /  30  10   5   5
Vidalia         92  69  93  71 /   5   5   5  10

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BDL
LONG TERM....39
AVIATION UPDATE...BDL



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