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Area Forecast Discussion

766
FXUS62 KFFC 121947
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
247 PM EST FRI FEB 12 2016

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
NO MAJOR FORECAST CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. HARD TO BELIEVE
WE HAD SNOW EVENT THIS MORNING IN FAR NE GA WITH CURRENT TEMPS IN
THE MID TO UPPER 60S. IN BETWEEN SHORT WAVES DURING THIS PERIOD...
QUITE A BIT COOLER AND MUCH DRIER...ESP SATURDAY. SEE FIRE WEATHER
SECTION FOR POSSIBLE FIRE DANGER ISSUES. OTHERWISE USED BIAS-
CORRECTED BLEND FOR TEMPS AND WIND.

SNELSON


.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A COMPLICATED FORECAST IN THE EARLY PART OF THE LONG TERM. HAVING
SAID THAT...WITH THE NAM NOW EXTENDING INTO MONDAY...IT IS BRINGING
THE SURFACE LOW SOUTH OF ATL/AHN KEEPING NORTH GA IN THE COLD AIR
WEDGE. 950/925 TEMPS ACROSS NORTHEAST GA STAY BELOW FREEZING THROUGH
EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON MONDAY THEN WARMING ABOVE FREEZING. THE H8
ZERO DEGREE LINE IS ACROSS NORTH GA MONDAY MORNING THEN QUICKLY
RISING WELL NORTH OF THE CWA BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. WHAT IS LENDING TO
A HIGHER CONFIDENCE OF THIS SCENARIO HAPPENING IS THE 12Z GFS IS NOW
MUCH COLDER THAN THE PREVIOUS RUNS BRINGING THE SURFACE LOW IN A
SIMILAR FASHION TO THE NAM. THE ONSET OF PRECIPITATION IS ALSO A
LITTLE EARLIER THAN PREVIOUS RUNS AND THIS SHOULD AID IN KEEPING THE
WEDGE OVER MUCH OF NORTH GA. SCATTERED/ISOLATED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS
SHOULD MOVE INTO EXTREME NORTH GA SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND SLOWLY
INCREASE IN COVERAGE SUNDAY NIGHT. BASED ON PARTIAL THICKNESS OF THE
GFS/NAM...THE MAIN PRECIP TYPE WILL BE SNOW ACROSS NORTHEAST GA AND
A MIX OF RAIN/FREEZING RAIN/SLEET ACROSS THE REST OF NORTH GA SUNDAY
NIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY. THE PRECIPITATION WILL TRANSITION TO ALL
RAIN BY NOON FROM NORTHWEST GA TO ATL TO AHN...WITH NORTHEAST GA
TRANSITIONING FROM SNOW TO A FREEZING RAIN/SLEET MIX. AS THE SURFACE
LOW PULLS OFF TO OUR EAST...COLDER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE CWA MONDAY
NIGHT AND TUESDAY CHANGING THE PRECIP TO A RAIN/SNOW MIX ACROSS MOST
OF NORTH GA. THERE REMAINS A HIGH PROBABILITY OF SIGNIFICANT
ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW AND ICE...MAINLY ACROSS NORTHEAST GA.

IN ADDITIONAL TO WINTER WEATHER...HPC QPF GUIDANCE IS BRINGING OVER
1 INCH OF LIQUID PRECIP TO NORTH AND PARTS OF CENTRAL GA. THIS COULD
BE ENOUGH TO PUSH A FEW CREEKS AND RIVERS TO BANKFULL OR NEAR
FLOOD. THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED.

AFTER THIS STORM PASSES...AN H5 RIDGE BEGINS BUILDING AND THIS WILL
BRING A RAPID WARM UP TO THE CWA FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK.

17


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

SMALL CHANCE FOR FIRE DANGER CRITERIA SATURDAY AS RH DROPS TO 20-25
PCT OVER ALL BUT FAR NORTH GA AND FUELS MAY REACH 8PCT OR LOWER. NW
WINDS WILL ALSO BE BREEZY WITH SPEEDS OF 12-18MPH AND GUSTS TO
25MPH. WILL NEED TO MONITOR FOR POSS FIRE DANGER STATEMENT.

SNELSON

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z UPDATE...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THRU 00Z SUN. WIND SHIFT TO WEST IN
PROGRESS OR ALREADY COMPLETED AND SHOULD REMAIN WEST THRU FCST.
WIND GUSTS TO 20-23KTS LIKELY AFTER 00Z.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...18Z UPDATE...
HIGH CONFIDENCE ON ALL ELEMENTS.

SNELSON

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          29  43  22  40 /   0   0   0  10
ATLANTA         28  39  24  42 /   0   0   0  10
BLAIRSVILLE     21  31  17  36 /   5   0   0  20
CARTERSVILLE    26  37  21  42 /   0   0   0  10
COLUMBUS        34  48  26  49 /   0   0   0  10
GAINESVILLE     27  37  22  38 /   0   0   0  10
MACON           34  48  25  46 /   0   0   0  10
ROME            26  37  20  43 /   0   0   0  10
PEACHTREE CITY  29  41  23  44 /   0   0   0  10
VIDALIA         38  52  29  46 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SNELSON
LONG TERM....17
AVIATION...SNELSON



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