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Area Forecast Discussion

996
FXUS62 KFFC 282333
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
633 PM EST WED JAN 28 2015



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 251 PM EST WED JAN 28 2015/

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
NORTHWEST UPPER FLOW QUICKLY TRANSITIONS TO ZONAL OVERNIGHT. SURFACE
RIDGE SETTLES SOUTHEAST OF THE STATE BY EARLY THURSDAY PUTTING THE
FORECAST AREA INTO WEAK WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE NEXT WEAK SHORT
WAVE BRUSHING THE REGION LATE IN THE DAY THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT. MOISTURE RETURN IS LIMITED...BUT SURFACE WET BULB
TEMPERATURES END UP AT OR ABOVE 32 DEGREES ACROSS THE AREA BY 00Z
LIMITING OUR CHANCES FOR ANY ACCUMULATING WINTRY PRECIPITATION
THURSDAY EVENING. THE OTHER LIMITING FACTOR IS OBVIOUSLY A LACK OF
SIGNIFICANT...DEEP LAYER MOISTURE. SHOULD ONLY SEE SCATTERED SHOWERS
AS THE SHORT WAVE SWEEPS BY TO THE NORTH AND BRUSHES THE AREA
DRIVING A WEAK COLD FRONT THROUGH NORTH GEORGIA TOMORROW EVENING. I
HAVE KEPT A MENTION OF A POSSIBLE MIXTURE OF RAIN AND SNOW IN THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE FAR NORTH THURSDAY EVENING...BUT NO
SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED.

ANOTHER SEASONABLY COOL NIGHT TONIGHT BUT WE SHOULD SEE TEMPERATURES
WARM TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS TOMORROW WITH THE WEAK
WARM ADVECTION ONGOING. TEMPERATURES REMAIN AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE
SEASONAL NORMALS TOMORROW EVENING AHEAD OF THE FRONT AS SCATTERED
SHOWERS MOVE THROUGH.

20

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
GUIDANCE IS SLIGHTLY SLOWER WITH BRINGING IN PRECIPITATION WITH
THE LATE WEEKEND SYSTEM. HAVE CUT BACK SLIGHTLY ON POPS FOR
SATURDAY NIGHT...BUT DID NOT COMPLETELY REMOVE POPS AS MODEL
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST LOWER LAYERS ARE NEAR SATURATED...WHICH COULD
RESULT IN SOME SPRINKLES OR DRIZZLE. IF FUTURE RUNS COME IN ON
THE LATER/DRIER SIDE...THEN WILL CUT BACK MORE IN FUTURE UPDATES
FOR SATURDAY NIGHT. OVERALL TREND WITH THE GFS IS DRIER THAN THE
PREVIOUS RUN. ECMWF HASNT CUT BACK THAT MUCH ON PRECIP...SO LITTLE
CHANGE IN TERMS OF POPS AT THIS POINT. HAVE CLEARED PRECIP OUT
SLIGHTLY QUICKER ON MONDAY THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.

TEMPERATURES ARE STILL SUPPORTIVE FOR THE POTENTIAL A RAIN/SNOW
MIX ACROSS PARTS OF NORTH GEORGIA SATURDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT.
LOOKING AT THE BRASSTOWN BALD SOUNDING...THE BEST TIMING FOR A
WINTRY MIX WOULD BE AROUND SUNRISE SUNDAY AND JUST AFTER AS THE
LAYER BEGINS TO SATURATE BUT SFC TEMPS ARE STILL ON THE COOLER
SIDE. WITH A SLIGHT WARM NOSE SUNDAY MORNING AT BRASSTOWN
BALD...MAY BE MORE OF A SLEET MIX THAN THE RAIN/SNOW MIX. BY
MONDAY MORNING THOUGH AS MOISTURE BEGINS TO DECREASE AND
TEMPERATURES DROP...PROFILE IS MORE INDICATIVE OF FLURRIES.

OTHER CHANGE TO THE EXTENDED WAS TO INCREASE POPS FURTHER NORTH
FOR WEDNESDAY. OTHERWISE...DETAILS FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST ARE
BELOW...

11

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
/ISSUED AT 428 AM EST WED JAN 28 2015/
MAIN CONCERN FOR THE LONG TERM WILL BE WITH OVERRUNNING OF GULF
MOISTURE AGAINST A CAD WEDGE FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. MODELS
CONTINUE TO LACK IN RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY SO UNCERTAINTY REMAINS
HIGH WITH STRENGTH OF WEDGE...TIMING OF PRECIP...AND RESULTANT
DIABATIC EFFECTS TO SFC TEMPS ON SUNDAY. DESPITE THE
DISCREPANCIES...THERE IS A TREND TO A SLIGHTLY WEAKER PARENT HIGH
AND MAY SUGGEST LESS OF A MIXED P-TYPE SITUATION. PROGGED THERMAL
PROFILES AND SFC WETBULB TEMPS LOOK A BIT LESS SUPPORTIVE OF
WINTRY CONCERNS FOR THE NORTHEAST FARTHER WITHIN THE WEDGE AS
WELL...THOUGH HAVE KEPT SOME MENTION OF SLIGHT CHANCE SNOW IN THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS EARLY SUNDAY...THEN POSSIBLY A BRIEF RAIN TO
SNOW TRANSITION IN FAR NORTH GA LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS LOW
PUSHES NORTHEAST OF THE AREA AND ATTENDANT COLD FRONT SWINGS
SOUTHEAST. GFS IS LESS PROGRESSIVE NOW AND DOES NOT HAVE FROPA
UNTIL LATER MONDAY. NEEDLESS TO SAY ADJUSTMENTS TO FORECAST ARE
LIKELY UNTIL MORE CONSENSUS IS REACHED. AT LEAST WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS ARE A GOOD BET AND PROGGED QPF BRINGS CLOSE TO AN INCH OF
TOTAL RAINFALL IN NORTH AND HALF INCH FOR CENTRAL GA.

BAKER



&&

.AVIATION...
00Z UPDATE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT OFFSHORE THROUGH THE PERIOD.
WINDS HAVE SWITCHED AROUND TO THE SE AND ARE EXPECTED TO SWITCH TO
THE SW LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE TOMORROW...BUT
CIGS SHOULD REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. CIGS SHOULD BEGIN TO
DROP TO MVFR AFTER 00Z. PRECIP CHANCES REMAIN VERY LOW AT THIS
TIME...SO WILL KEEP THE MENTION OUT OF THE TAF FOR NOW.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...00Z UPDATE...
HIGH CONFIDENCE ALL ELEMENTS.



&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          30  56  37  54 /   0  10  20   0
ATLANTA         34  55  38  52 /   0  10  30   0
BLAIRSVILLE     28  53  33  44 /   0  20  30   5
CARTERSVILLE    30  55  35  50 /   0  20  30   0
COLUMBUS        34  60  42  58 /   0   5  20   5
GAINESVILLE     34  54  36  51 /   0  20  30   5
MACON           30  59  42  58 /   0   5  20   5
ROME            30  55  35  50 /   0  20  20   0
PEACHTREE CITY  30  57  38  54 /   0  10  30   0
VIDALIA         32  61  44  58 /   0   0  20   5

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$



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