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Area Forecast Discussion

FXUS62 KFFC 241520

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
1120 AM EDT SUN JUL 24 2016


Current near-term forecast grids remain on track. No significant
changes planned at this time...however will re-issue Zone Forecast
package to update Morning/Afternoon wording. Still expect isolated to
scattered convection to develop this afternoon...but instability
remains marginal at best for any isolated severe storms. Better
initial cumulus development is across portions of west-central and
northwest Georgia along the western edge of the drier air spreading
in from the Carolinas. Still looks like we see Heat Index values in
the 100-105 range outside of the higher terrain. Would not be
surprised to see a couple of sites nudge a little above 105 for an
hour or two but coverage and duration should be a bit too low for a
Heat Advisory.



.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 659 AM EDT SUN JUL 24 2016/

Updated for the 12Z Aviation Discussion.

PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 348 AM EDT SUN JUL 24 2016/

SHORT TERM /Today through Monday/...
Short wave that brought the thunderstorms yesterday has moved off to
the west. Water vapor shows drier air moving into northeast Georgia
and this will spread across the CWA this morning. However enough low
level moisture remains that could initiate a isolated to scattered
thunderstorms this afternoon due to lingering out flow boundaries from
yesterdays storms as well as differential heating in the mountains. Any
storms that develop this afternoon will dissipate rapidly around sunset.
Monday looks like a duplicate of today with low level moisture...
differential heating and lingering outflow boundaries being the
trigger for tstorms in the afternoon. Max temps will be in the mid
to upper 90s across much of the CWA today and again Monday. Heat
index values will be in the 100 to 104 range with spotty locales
seeing 105. Will not be issuing a heat advisory.


LONG TERM /Monday Night through Saturday/...
An upper level ridge will continue across the southern Appalachians
Monday night and this should keep showers and thunderstorms mainly
diurnal. However the NAM continues pops after midnight with greater
moisture under the ridge.

The upper ridge drifts a little S over the area for Tuesday. However
plenty of moisture and instability will continue chances for mostly
diurnal showers and storms favoring N GA. Another hot day with high
temperatures in the 90s except for mid to upper 80s for portions of
the mountains. Heat indices will range 100-105 for a large portion of
central and E GA.

The upper level ridge pattern continues for Wednesday with mainly
afternoon and evening showers and storms favoring N GA. Most high
temperatures will again be in the 90s except for mid to upper 80s
for portions of the mountains.

The upper ridge shifts some to the se for Thursday...more so on the
GFS than the European and the GFS has more moisture for N and W GA
than the European. This will still favor N GA for showers and storms.

The GFS minimizes the upper ridge for Friday and Saturday with more
moisture across the area while the European holds the ridge in more
with less moisture. This will still favor N GA with the greatest chances
for showers and storms.


12Z Update...
Expect a persistence day with a slightly lower risk of tsra this
afternoon than yesterday. Will maintain a prob30 tsra for this
afternoon. Cu field will generate this morning but remain
scattered most areas through the afternoon. Skies will clear this
evening. Winds will become southwesterly 7 kts or less this
morning...then becoming near calm tonight.

//ATL Confidence...12Z Update...
Medium on tsra timing and coverage.
High on remaining elements.



Athens          97  74  97  73 /  30  20  40  30
Atlanta         96  75  95  74 /  30  20  40  20
Blairsville     90  70  91  68 /  50  20  50  40
Cartersville    96  73  96  72 /  40  20  40  40
Columbus        98  75  96  74 /  30  20  30  20
Gainesville     94  75  95  74 /  40  20  40  30
Macon           98  73  96  73 /  30  20  30  20
Rome            95  73  96  72 /  40  20  50  30
Peachtree City  97  72  95  71 /  30  20  40  20
Vidalia         98  75  95  74 /  30  20  30  10





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