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Area Forecast Discussion

285
FXUS62 KFFC 011130
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
730 AM EDT WED APR 1 2015



.UPDATE...
TWEAKING THE MORNING FORECAST TO REFLECT THE CURRENT RADAR TRENDS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 347 AM EDT WED APR 1 2015/

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WEAK COLD FRONT CURRENTLY STRETCHES FROM THE CENTRAL CAROLINAS TO
THE GA/TN BORDER BACK THROUGH THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY.
THE BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO SLIP SLOWLY SOUTH ACROSS THE REMAINDER
OF THE CWFA TODAY.

LINE OF NEARLY STATIONARY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF THE
FRONT CONTINUES ACROSS CENTRAL GA. AS THE FRONT PUSHES
SOUTHWARD...SO WILL THE PRECIPITATION. OVERALL...THE TREND THE LAST
FEW HOURS HAS BEEN FOR THE STORMS TO WEAKEN. HOWEVER...A FEW STRONG
STORMS REMAIN AND AN ISOLATED SEVERE STORM IS NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION. MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES REMAIN STEEP...AND SPC SURFACE
MESOANALYSIS SHOWS MODEST MUCAPES BETWEEN 500 AND 1000 J/KG AHEAD OF
THE BOUNDARY. HAIL WILL REMAIN THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER MODE BUT
WILL NOT RULE OUT AN ISOLD DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. EVEN THE SUB-SEVERE
STORMS COULD PRODUCE SMALL HAIL.

PREVIOUS RUNS OF THE HRRR DIDN`T HAVE A GREAT GRASP ON THE CURRENT
SITUATION. HOWEVER...THE LATEST RUN SEEMS TO HAVE A BETTER HANDLE ON
THE SHORTWAVE DROPPING SOUTH ACROSS NORTHERN AL. THE HRRR IS NOW
KEEPING THE AREA OF PRECIP TOGETHER...BUT CONTINUES THE OVERALL
TREND OF WEAKENING THE STORMS. DO THINK THIS SOLUTION IS REASONABLE.
HAVE RAISED POPS TO CATEGORICAL ALONG AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY THIS
MORNING. IN ADDITION TO THE HAIL POTENTIAL...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
WILL BE POSSIBLE.

POPS WILL REMAIN HIGH AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY AND THE SHORTWAVE
DROPPING SOUTH OUT OF ALABAMA THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...NOT CONFIDENT
THAT THE WIDESPREAD PRECIP WILL HOLD TOGETHER ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE
SHORTWAVE THIS AFTERNOON. HAVE ENDED UP BUMPING POPS UP THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON...BUT HAVE KEPT THEM IN THE HIGH END SCT RANGE INSTEAD OF
CATEGORICAL. ATMOS IS MODERATELY UNSTABLE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CWFA
AND LAPSE RATES WILL REMAIN STEEP. SO...THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO
ISOLATED STORMS WILL CONTINUE. HAIL WILL REMAIN THE PRIMARY SEVERE
WEATHER MODE...BUT AGAIN...WOULD NOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED DAMAGING
WIND GUST.

PRECIP SHOULD DWINDLE THIS EVENING AS THE FRONT PUSHES SOUTH OF THE
CWFA. THERE COULD BE A BRIEF DRY PERIOD LATER TONIGHT BEFORE PRECIP
CHANCES INCREASE AGAIN ON THURSDAY.

TODAYS FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAY TRY TO BEGIN CREEPING NORTHWARD AS A
WARM FRONT ON THURSDAY. MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A PRETTY DECENT
SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE DAY. THE NAM IS A BIT
STRONGER THAN THE GFS AND COULD BE SUFFERING FROM SOME CONVECTIVE
FEEDBACK. OVERALL...DIDN`T REALLY CHANGE THURSDAYS FORECAST MUCH.
JUST TWEAKED SOME POPS. MODELS ARE NOT SHOWING MUCH POTENTIAL FOR
SEVERE WEATHER WITH THIS SYSTEM. HOWEVER...IT IS SPRING...SO WON`T
RULE OUT STRONG STORMS.

NLISTEMAA

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WILL BRING GOOD GULF MOISTURE
NORTHWARD THURSDAY NIGHT. PRECIP MAY CONTINUE TO FOCUS ALONG A WARM
FRONT. THE HIGHEST POPS SHOULD REMAIN ACROSS THE NORTHERN CWFA...IN
THE VICINITY OF THE WARM FRONT.

A COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO DROP SOUTH INTO THE CWFA LATER FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY. SOUTHWARD PROGRESS MAY BE SLOW DUE TO THE ZONAL FLOW
IN PLACE. HOWEVER...A DECENT 500MB TROUGH WILL HELP PUSH THE
BOUNDARY SOUTHWARD A LITTLE FASTER INTO SATURDAY. THE GFS AND ECMWF
ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR TIMING. THE BEST CHANCES OF PRECIP WITH
THIS SYSTEM LOOK TO BE OVERNIGHT FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.
SINCE THE BOUNDARY IS COMING THROUGH DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS...SURFACE INSTABILITY SHOULD BE LIMITED. DEFINITELY EXPECT
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG/AHEAD OF THE FRONT...BUT AT THIS TIME...THE
POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS LOOKS LIMITED. HOWEVER...A FEW STRONG
STORMS ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION...IT`S SPRING. OVERNIGHT TEMPS
MAY BE A LITTLE WARMER THAN WHAT GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING AND WILL
BUMP UP A FEW DEGREES. TEMPS 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL ARE
EXPECTED SATURDAY NIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. FOR NOW...TEMPS REMAIN
ABOVE FREEZING IN MOST LOCALES BUT THERE MAY BE A FEW SHELTERED
SPOTS IN THE MOUNTAINS THAT APPROACH 32 DEGREES.

HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT LATER SATURDAY
INTO SUNDAY. EXPECT A DRIER AIRMASS AND NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR
SUNDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFFSHORE ON MONDAY. SOUTHERLY FLOW ON THE
BACKSIDE OF THE HIGH WILL BRING GOOD GULF MOISTURE NORTHWARD...SO
TYPICAL SCT SHRA/TSRA ARE POSSIBLE EACH DAY.

THERE ARE SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE ECMWF AND GFS FOR THE
MID TO LATE WEEK COLD FRONT. THE GFS HAS FROPA ON WEDNESDAY...WHILE
THE ECMWF IS LATER IN THE WEEK. SCT POPS SHOULD SUFFICE UNTIL THE
TIMING CAN BE NAILED DOWN.

NLISTEMAA


&&

.AVIATION...
12Z UPDATE...
PATCHY IFR CIGS BEING REPORTED BEHIND THE WIDESPREAD RAINFALL.
THEY SHOULD ONLY LAST BRIEFLY. CLEARING OUT WILL BE QUICK AND CIGS
WILL REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY. MODELS ARE
PROGGING SOME FOG AND LOW CIGS OVERNIGHT.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...12Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ALL ELEMENTS.



&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          75  55  71  59 /  10  20  50  30
ATLANTA         75  57  73  60 /  20  20  40  20
BLAIRSVILLE     70  53  67  55 /  10  20  70  30
CARTERSVILLE    75  55  72  58 /  10  20  50  30
COLUMBUS        79  57  80  60 /  50  20  40  10
GAINESVILLE     73  56  68  57 /  10  20  50  30
MACON           78  56  78  59 /  40  20  40  10
ROME            75  54  73  58 /  10  20  50  30
PEACHTREE CITY  76  53  74  57 /  30  20  40  20
VIDALIA         77  59  79  63 /  50  20  30  10

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$



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