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Area Forecast Discussion

FXUS62 KFFC 240140

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
940 PM EDT FRI SEP 23 2016


Current forecast remains on track. Made a few minor adjustments to
Sky Cover and hourly Temperatures and Dew Points for this evening to
fit recent current trends, but no changes to the overall character of
the forecast themes.



.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 730 PM EDT FRI SEP 23 2016/

SHORT TERM /Tonight through Saturday Night/...
Synoptic pattern at AFD time features seasonably strong mid/upper
level trough rotating in the vicinity of the eastern Great
Basin...with a ridge downstream centered around mid-MS Valley.
Within this ridge...Water Vapor imagery reveals a shortwave moving
SE across southern Ga. At the sfc...high pressure is dominating a
majority of the country east of the Rockies and south of the
Great Lakes...with remnants of Julia still lingering off SC coast.

Rest of today and tonight: Summer-like temperatures will persist for
the remainder of the afternoon with most locations topping off
around 90 degrees. Fair weather cu field lit up the sky a few hours
ago...with little in the way of sensible weather impacts expected as
aforementioned shortwave and Julia remnants keep favorable
environment for pop-up showers/thunder to our east. Tonight... skies
will clear will lows in the 60s.

For Saturday...MS Valley mid-level ridge will shift east as Ga
shortwave gets stuck underneath of it and begins to close off and
slowly retrograde west...setting the stage for a Rex Block type
feature. Warm atmospheric column will allow temps to rise near 90
again. Meanwhile remnants of Julia will push east into the
Western Atlantic as sfc high continues to dominate the southeast.
Nil POPs expected over majority of area...aside from far SE
counties where slightly higher lift and moisture will reside near
closed low. Anything that develops would be very isolated with
high pressure the more dominant feature.

Towards the end of the short-term period...a backdoor "cold" front
will be approaching the area from the NE as a 1025mb sfc high slides
into Ontario...while closed mid level low lingers below dominant
ridge across the SE.


LONG TERM /Sunday through Friday/...
Only tweaks to the long term based on the latest guidance.


Mid and long range models continue to show fairly good agreement
early in the period with surface high pressure building south of
the Great Lakes region and pushing a weak backdoor front into the
area Sunday afternoon-Sunday night. Instability and forcing still
appears weak... suggesting any associated precip should be spotty
in nature and mainly confined to the eastern portions of the
forecast area Sunday afternoon-evening. By Monday... the surface
ridge pushes off the mid and upper Atlantic coast and establishes
a moist southeast wind flow across the area. This ahead of a
deepening upper trough and associated cold front approaching from
the Northwest will likely increase clouds and rain chances across
the area for the first half of the work week. Although still some
uncertainty on timing and strength with this system... long range
models are beginning to show much better agreement... with both
GFS and ECMWF now gradually gradually dragging the cold front
across the forecast area sometime between late Tuesday through
late Wednesday. Still appears the main driving upper support will
track well to the north... suggesting the greater storm chances
will likely be on Tuesday along and just ahead of the approaching
cold front. For now... will only show a low chance of pops through
this period... with decreasing pops now warranted for Wednesday
behind the front. NIL pops for most of the area looks reasonable
on Thursday as dry/cool high pressure builds into the state.

Otherwise... still some uncertainty for Sunday highs as should see
a slight increase in clouds and possibly cooler temps spread into
the area behind the backdoor front. But for now... model guidances
continue to show highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s... so wont
stray far for now. Models agree on increasing clouds and rain
chances holding daytime highs down in the 80s for Monday and
Tuesday... but then it appears Fall like temps will finally arrive
by Wednesday-Thursday behind the mid week cold front. This cooler
airmass is expected to lower daytime highs down in the lower to
mid 80s... with some 70s in the mountains. Lows in the 60s will
finally dip into the 50s for most areas by mid week as well.


00Z Update...

VFR conditions are expected to predominate across the forecast area
through the majority of this forecast period. Isolated to scattered
areas of MVFR or lower visibilities will develop between 03Z and
14Z. Right now I do not expect any impacts at the TAF sites.
Northwest to Northeast winds 4-8kt currently will become northeast
to east 5kt or less by 04Z through 14Z...then northeast to north 6-
10kt after.

//ATL Confidence...00Z Update...




Athens          67  91  67  90 /  10  10  10  20
Atlanta         70  92  71  90 /  10  10   5  10
Blairsville     59  87  62  86 /  20  10  10  30
Cartersville    65  92  67  91 /  10  10   5  10
Columbus        71  94  71  92 /  10  10  10  20
Gainesville     67  90  68  89 /  20  10  10  20
Macon           68  92  68  92 /  10  10  10  20
Rome            63  93  66  92 /   5  10   5  10
Peachtree City  64  91  66  91 /  10  10  10  20
Vidalia         70  89  70  89 /  20  20  10  30





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