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Area Forecast Discussion

084
FXUS62 KFFC 032345 AAA
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
745 PM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016


...ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS STILL POSSIBLE INTO EARLY EVENING ACROSS
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL GEORGIA...

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...

LATE AFTERNOON INTO EVENING PERIOD IS MORE ACTIVE PORTION OF SHORT
TERM AS SFC FRONT PUSHES SOUTHEAST /CURRENTLY JUST SOUTH OF ATLANTA
TO ATHENS/...AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS ACROSS CENTRAL GEORGIA WILL ALLOW
FOR STORM POTENTIAL. ENVIRONMENTAL PARAMETERS REMAIN SUPPORTIVE OF
ISOLATE SEVERE CONVECTION GIVEN THE 1500 J/KG OF MLCAPE AND NEAR 40
KTS OF BULK 0-6KM SHEAR. GREATEST CHANCE SHOULD BE ALONG AND SOUTH
OF A COLUMBUS TO MACON TO LOUISVILLE LINE WITH STRONG WINDS AND HAIL
THREATS /GIVEN DECENT LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND FAIRLY LOW FREEZING
LEVEL/. RATHER FAST STORM MOTION GIVEN THE 40-45 KTS OF MEAN WIND
FIELD.

POPS SHOULD DIMINISH IN SOUTHEAST BY LATE EVENING THEN SHOULD BE
RATHER BREEZY WITH ENHANCED NW FLOW FOR WEDNESDAY. IMPRESSIVE COLD
CORE ALOFT FOR EARLY MAY FORECAST TO DIG SOUTH AND AMPLIFY QUICKLY
WITH THE CLOSED TROUGH. A SHORTWAVE AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE FIELD IS
STILL FCST TO SLING ACROSS NORTH GEORGIA LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
INTO EVENING. HAVE CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS AND SLIGHT THUNDER
MENTION GIVEN STRONG FORCING WITH STEEPENING LAPSE RATES.

FOR TEMPS...IN POST FRONTAL REGIME WE SHOULD REACH LOWER MINS
TONIGHT BUT REMAIN CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMS...THOUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT
SHOULD BE A TAD CHILLIER GIVEN STRONGER WINDS AND ROBUST NW FLOW
KICKING IN. EXPECT UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S FOR NORTHERN MAJORITY AND
EVEN UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S IN THE NE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

BAKER

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NO MAJOR CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE EXTENDED PERIOD. MODELS CONTINUE
TO SHOW A DRY... QUIET WEATHER PATTERN SETTING UP BY THURSDAY AND
PERSISTING THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK UNDER HIGH PRESSURE INFLUENCE.
LONG RANGE MODELS SHOW OUR NEXT RAIN CHANCES COMING BY MID NEXT
WEEK AS A WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA SOMETIME NEXT
ON TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY. FOR NOW... WILL CONTINUE TO SHOW JUST A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MAINLY NORTH GA
ON TUESDAY-TUESDAY NIGHT. SEE THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW FOR
ADDITIONAL DETAILS. 39

PREVIOUS LONG TERM DISCUSSION /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
/ISSUED AT 443 AM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016/
A FAST MOVING CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL DROP FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO
THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. THE
SURFACE FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM SHOULD CROSS NORTH AND
CENTRAL GA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MODELS ARE CONSISTENT IN SHOWING A
SWATH OF MOISTURE INCREASE AND SOME LOW CAPE WITH THIS FRONT.
COMBINED WITH COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT...THIS COULD PRODUCE SHOWERS
AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY NORTH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THERE COULD
BE SOME WRAP AROUND MOISTURE PERSISTING ON THURSDAY AS THE UPPER
LOW MOVES INTO THE CAROLINAS...SO HAVE CONTINUED WITH SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS FOR THE FAR NORTHEAST. WE SHOULD REMAIN DRY UNTIL THE
END OF THE PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST.
POPS RETURN LATE MONDAY FOR NORTHWEST GA WITH INCREASING SOUTHERLY
FLOW. SOME BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN STORE FOR MID WEEK WITH A
MODERATING TREND FOR THE WEEKEND.

41

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z UPDATE...
THE COLD FRONT HAS MOVED EAST OF THE TAF SITES AT THIS TIME.
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD
WITH SCATTERED CLOUDS FROM 5K TO 7K FT. A BREEZY NW WIND WILL
PREVAIL.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...00Z UPDATE...
HIGH ON ALL ELEMENTS
16

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          54  74  51  67 /  20  10  20  10
ATLANTA         55  71  52  65 /  20  20  20  10
BLAIRSVILLE     49  66  45  58 /  10  40  50  20
CARTERSVILLE    51  71  49  65 /  10  30  30  10
COLUMBUS        57  75  56  69 /  20   5  10   5
GAINESVILLE     54  70  50  63 /  10  20  20  10
MACON           57  76  53  70 /  40   5  10   5
ROME            51  72  48  66 /  10  40  40  10
PEACHTREE CITY  52  72  50  67 /  20  10  20   5
VIDALIA         62  78  57  71 /  60  10   5   5

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BAKER/16
LONG TERM....39
AVIATION...BAKER/16



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