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Area Forecast Discussion

390
FXUS62 KFFC 230210
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
1010 PM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

.EVENING UPDATE...
PATCHY FOG BEGINNING TO DEVELOP ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL GA AROUND
MACON...AND SOME AREAS COULD BE DENSE AT TIMES. EXPECT THIS TREND TO
CONTINUE ACROSS MAINLY CENTRAL GA WHERE DEWPOINTS REMAIN IN THE 60S
WITH WET GROUNDS AND CLEAR SKIES. THE FRONT SHOULD EVENTUALLY MOVE
ACROSS THIS AREA DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS... AND WITH DRIER
AIR EXPECTED TO FILTER SOUTHWARD OVERNIGHT... NOT EXPECTING
WIDESPREAD DENSE FOR THE MORNING COMMUTE. HOWEVER...WILL HAVE TO
MONITOR FOR THIS POTENTIAL CLOSELY OVERNIGHT AS THE FRONT IS STILL
ACROSS NORTH GA AND NOT MOVING SOUTHWARD VERY FAST. /39

.EVENING UPDATE...
/ISSUED AT 740 PM EDT TUE APR 22 2014/
ALTHOUGH THE ACTUAL COLD FRONT IS JUST NOW PUSHING INTO NW GA... THE
PREFRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH AND DRIVING UPPER DISTURBANCE ARE ALL
PUSHING EAST AND TAKING THE THREAT OF THUNDER WITH IT. RADAR SHOWING
ONLY A FEW LINGERING STORMS IN OUR FAR SW FORECAST AREA NEAR
LYONS... AND THESE STORMS SHOULD BE OUT OF THE AREA BY 8 PM. HAVE
REMOVED ALL MENTION OF THUNDER FOR NORTH AND MOST OF CENTRAL GA FOR
THIS EVENING... EXCEPT HELD ONTO A SLIGHT CHANCE SOUTH OF A
COLUMBUS TO MACON TO LOUISVILLE LINE THROUGH 10 PM WHERE DEWPOINTS
ARE STILL IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S AND 500-800 CAPE STILL LINGER.
OTHERWISE... EXPECT THE FRONT TO PUSH ACROSS ATLANTA METRO AREA
AROUND MIDNIGHT... THEN CSG-MCN BY 02-04 AM. MAY SEE AN OCCASIONAL
PATCH OF -RA UNTIL FROPA...THEN EXPECT CLEARING OVERNIGHT WITH A
5-10 MPH NW WIND USHERING IN A COOLER/DRIER AIRMASS FOR WED. /39


.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
/ISSUED AT 322 PM EDT TUE APR 22 2014/
WEAK COLD FRONT PUSHING INTO NORTHWEST GA THIS AFTERNOON WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE CWA THIS EVENING. WEAK DYNAMICS AND LIMITED MOISTURE WITH
THE FRONT...SO EXPECTING MAINLY SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED THUNDER. WITH
DAYTIME HEATING...A FEW STORMS MAY BECOME STRONG MAINLY OVER CENTRAL
GEORGIA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. RIDGE ALOFT BUILDING INTO THE
CWA AFTER 06Z SHOULD BRING DRIER AIR INTO THE FORECAST AREA. EXPECT
THE RAIN SHOULD BE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CWA AFTER 06Z. LOOKING FOR
DRY CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SOME COOL AIR
ADVECTION EXPECTED TONIGHT AFTER FROPA BUT ANY LINGERING CLOUDS
COULD KEEP TEMPERATURES WARMER THAN FORECAST MAINLY CENTRAL ZONES.
OTHERWISE A BLEND OF MODEL TEMPERATURES LOOKS OKAY.

41


.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
/ISSUED AT 322 PM EDT TUE APR 22 2014/
HAVE MADE MINOR CHANGES TO THE POPS...MAINLY FOR THURSDAY
NIGHT/FRIDAY. DEEPEST MOISTURE RUNS OUT AHEAD OF THE INSTABILITY AND
THE FRONT...AND WHILE ALL DEEP MOISTURE HAS EXITED BY FRIDAY
MORNING...THERE COULD BE CONVECTION DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
THE LIMITING FACTOR WILL BE THE CIN THAT FORMS OVER THE REGION AND
ALTHOUGH THE CIN IS NOT PARTICULARLY STRONG...IT COULD BE ENOUGH TO
LIMIT ANY CONVECTION. WILL KEEP LOW END POPS GOING ON FRIDAY. NO
OTHER SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

17


&&

.AVIATION...
00Z UPDATE...
WEAK COLD FRONT JUST PUSHING INTO NW GA WILL GRADUALLY PUSH ACROSS
THE ATLANTA TAF SITES BETWEEN 03-05Z TONIGHT... THEN CSG-MCN AREAS
BETWEEN 05-07Z TONIGHT. THE DRIVING UPPER DISTURBANCE IS PUSHING
EAST... SO NO THUNDER THREAT. ALTHOUGH VFR CIGS SHOULD PREVAIL UNTIL
SKIES SCT AFTER FROPA... CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW PATCHES OF -RA WITH
MVFR CIGS THRU 03-04Z THIS EVENING. AFTER FROPA... EXPECT SCT MID
LEVELS CLOUDS AROUND THRU 09Z...THEN EXPECT FEW TO SKC. WEST WINDS
WILL SHIFT NW BEHIND THE FRONT WITH SPEEDS AROUND 7-10KTS OVERNIGHT.
COULD SEE NW WINDS 10G17KTS ON WED DURING DAYTIME HEATING...BUT
GUSTS SHOULD END BY 21-22Z WED.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...00Z UPDATE...
HIGH CONFIDENCE ALL ELEMENTS.

39

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          54  77  48  78 /  20   0   0   5
ATLANTA         55  74  53  79 /  20   0   0   5
BLAIRSVILLE     45  71  43  74 /  20   0   0   5
CARTERSVILLE    48  73  43  79 /  20   0   0   5
COLUMBUS        57  79  54  80 /  30   0   0   5
GAINESVILLE     53  74  50  75 /  20   0   0   5
MACON           55  80  49  82 /  30   0   0   5
ROME            49  74  43  80 /  20   0   5   5
PEACHTREE CITY  53  76  45  80 /  30   0   0   5
VIDALIA         59  81  58  83 /  30   0   0   5

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...41/39
LONG TERM....17
AVIATION...39












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