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Area Forecast Discussion

293
FXUS62 KFFC 010254
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
1054 PM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.UPDATE...
MOST OF THE STORMS HAVE SETTLED DOWN AND ARE NO LONGER PRODUCING
SEVERE WEATHER. THE STRONGER STORMS HAVE CONTINUED TO PUT OUT 1/4
TO 1/2 INCH HAIL AND THIS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS AS THE TRAIN OF STORMS CONTINUES TO MOVE OUT OF AL AND INTO
GA...ACROSS THE SAME AREA THEY HAVE BEEN MOVING ALL EVENING. WILL
THEREFORE ALLOW THE WATCH TO EXPIRE AT 11 PM. THE BAND OF
CONVECTION WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH AFTER 06Z HOWEVER LOCAL RADAR
MODELS ARE SHOWING ANOTHER AREA OF SHOWERS/POSSIBLY TSTORMS TO
MOVE BACK INTO WESTERN GA LATE TONIGHT. HAVE RAISED POPS TO CHANCE
BUT HAVE KEPT IT TO SHOWERS FOR LATE TONIGHT. HAVE MADE MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS TO HOURLY TEMPS. NO OTHER CHANGES ARE PLANNED AT THIS
TIME.

&&

.UPDATE...
/ISSUED 718 PM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015/

UPDATE...EXTENDED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH UNTIL 11 PM EDT.

MESOSCALE UPDATE...
SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUING TO TRACK
SOUTHEAST ACROSS WEST-CENTRAL GEORGIA. MULTIPLE REPORTS OF NICKEL
TO JUST OVER QUARTER SIZE HAIL HAVE OCCURRED WITH STORMS MOVING
INTO MODERATELY UNSTABLE /1000-1500 J/KG MLCAPE/ ENVIRONMENT.
JUST RECEIVED REPORT OF GOLF BALL SIZE HAIL NEAR LA GRANGE.

BASED ON THIS AND DISCUSSION WITH SPC/SURROUNDING OFFICES
(BMX)...DECIDED TO EXTEND SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH UNTIL 11 PM
EDT.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
/ISSUED AT 249 PM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015/
LATEST ANALYSIS AND HIRES MODEL DATA CONTINUE TO SUPPORT THE
POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS FROM LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO
THE MID EVENING HOURS... AS AN UPPER DISTURBANCE INTERACTS WITH
INCREASING INSTABILITY AND AN OLD BOUNDARY STALLED ACROSS CENTRAL
GA. A FEW OF THUNDERSTORMS HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME SEVERE...
WITH STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES... COLD AIR ALOFT AND MID LEVEL
DRY AIR ALL SUPPORTING THE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL... STRONG
DOWNBURST WINDS AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING WITH THE STRONGER STORMS.
EXPECT THE MAIN SEVERE STORM THREAT TO BE BETWEEN 4 PM AND 10 PM
TODAY... AND GENERALLY IN AND AROUND THE WATCH AREA...WHICH MEANS
ATLANTA METRO AREA IS CLOSE... SO CANNOT RULE OUT A SEVERE STORM
BRUSHING THE DOWNTOWN ATLANTA AREA. ALL INTEREST ARE ENCOURAGED TO
CLOSELY MONITOR STORM DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THE EVENING. HAVE
UPDATED ZONES TO HEADLINE THE WATCH.

OTHERWISE... THE UPPER DISTURBANCE PUSHES EAST TONIGHT... WHICH
WILL INCREASE RIDGING OVERHEAD FOR WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL HELP
REDUCE ANY THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS ON WEDNESDAY... EXCEPT MAYBE
DOWN ALONG THE FAR SOUTHERN REACHES IN CENTRAL GA DURING THE
AFTERNOON. WILL HOLD ONTO A LOW CHANCE NEAR COLUMBUS TO MACON AND
SOUTHWARD WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON... BUT SUSPECT THE GREATER CHANCES
WILL BE SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA ON WEDNESDAY. AN UPPER
DISTURBANCE APPROACHING LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL WARRANT A LOW
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTHWEST ZONES
AFTER MIDNIGHT WEDNESDAY NIGHT... WITH INCREASING CHANCES INTO
THURSDAY MORNING.

A MAV AND MET BLEND ON TEMPS LOOKED GOOD THROUGH THE SHORT TERM...
SO DID NOT STRAY FAR.

39

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
/ISSUED AT 249 PM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015/
NO CHANGES PLANNED TO EXTENDED PORTIONS. MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY
GOOD AGREEMENT WITH SOME DISCREPANCIES NOTED WITH SYSTEM FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. FOR NEXT WEEK GFS BULLISH ON BRINGING GULF
MOISTURE BACK ACROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY WITH DIURNALLY DRIVEN POPS
ACROSS THE AREA ONCE AGAIN.

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z UPDATE...
BAND OF CONVECTION HAS SET UP FROM CARROLLTON TO NEAR MACON. THIS
WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY FOR THE NEXT 2 TO 4 HOURS AND THEN
THERE WILL BE SOME WEAKENING AND DIMINISHING IN AREAL COVERAGE.
AT THIS TIME WILL CONFINE TSRA TO MCN. ATL/AHN AREA AND CSG SHOULD
REMAIN OUT OF THE TSRA ALTHOUGH CSG AND ATL COULD SEE SCATTERED
SHOWERS IN AND AROUND THE TAF SITES. WINDS WILL GO NEAR CALM
TONIGHT AND THEN LIGHT NORTH NORTHWEST WEDNESDAY. A BACK DOOR
FRONT WILL MOVE THRU AHN WEDNESDAY AROUND NOON...REACHING ATL/PDK
BY LATE AFTERNOON SWITCHING THE WINDS TO THE NORTHEAST. MVFR
CLOUDS ARE EXPECT TO DEVELOP FROM CSG-MCN LATE TONIGHT AND THEN
INCREASE TO VFR BY MID TO LATE MORNING.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...00Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ON CONVECTION THIS EVENING
HIGH ON ALL REMAINING ELEMENTS

17

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          53  79  53  72 /  40  10  20  50
ATLANTA         55  77  57  72 /  70  20  30  50
BLAIRSVILLE     48  73  49  62 /  40  10  30  60
CARTERSVILLE    51  78  56  73 /  70  20  30  60
COLUMBUS        57  80  57  80 /  60  30  20  20
GAINESVILLE     53  76  53  67 /  40  10  30  50
MACON           56  81  54  77 /  70  20  20  40
ROME            52  78  54  74 /  70  20  30  60
PEACHTREE CITY  53  79  53  75 /  70  20  30  40
VIDALIA         59  80  58  79 /  70  20  10  30

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: BARTOW...BIBB...BLECKLEY...CARROLL...
CHATTAHOOCHEE...CHATTOOGA...COWETA...CRAWFORD...CRISP...DODGE...
DOOLY...DOUGLAS...EMANUEL...FAYETTE...FLOYD...GORDON...
HARALSON...HARRIS...HEARD...HOUSTON...JOHNSON...JONES...LAMAR...
LAURENS...MACON...MARION...MERIWETHER...MONROE...MONTGOMERY...
MUSCOGEE...PAULDING...PEACH...PIKE...POLK...PULASKI...SCHLEY...
SPALDING...STEWART...SUMTER...TALBOT...TAYLOR...TELFAIR...
TOOMBS...TREUTLEN...TROUP...TWIGGS...UPSON...WEBSTER...WHEELER...
WILCOX...WILKINSON.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...17
LONG TERM....17
AVIATION...17



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