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Area Forecast Discussion

780
FXUS62 KFFC 300530 AAC
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
130 AM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 906 PM EDT MON SEP 29 2014/

UPDATE...
ADJUSTED FORECAST TO FURTHER DECREASE SHOWER CHANCES AS COVERAGE
HAS BEEN MINIMAL THOUGH CANNOT RULE OUT SLIGHT TO LOW END CHANCE
ACROSS CENTRAL GEORGIA UNTIL SHORTWAVE AXIS PUSHES EAST AFTER 12Z.
OTHERWISE SOME LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MAY ALLOW FOR SOME
AREAS OF FOG IN THE MORNING HOURS AND TEMPS HAVE BEEN TRENDING
LOWER IN THE CONTINUED WEDGE ZONE WITH ENHANCED CLOUD COVERAGE.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

BAKER

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 828 PM EDT MON SEP 29 2014/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 321 PM EDT MON SEP 29 2014/

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
SURFACE LOW DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE NORTHEAST GULF COAST REGION HAS
BEEN SLOWER AND WEAKER THAN PREVIOUS MODELS RUNS WERE DEPICTING.
BEST PRECIPITATION HAS REMAINED ALONG THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE FORECAST AREA. EVEN THIS SHOULD CONTINUE TO
SLOWLY SHIFT EAST THIS EVENING AS THE LAST SHORT WAVE ASSOCIATED
WITH THE WEAK UPPER TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS. CLOUD COVER WILL BE SLOW TO CLEAR OVERNIGHT AND
AMPLE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL MEAN FAIRLY GOOD CONDITIONS FOR
WIDESPREAD FOG DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE AREA. TUESDAY LOOKS DRY AS
WEAK UPPER RIDGING BUILDS IN BEHIND THE EXITING SYSTEM.

20

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
NO MAJOR CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE EXTENDED PERIODS AS MODELS STILL
SHOW GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM IMPACTING THE
AREA...MAINLY BETWEEN THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND FRIDAY EVENING...
WITH THE GREATER RAIN AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES EXPECTED TO BE ON
FRIDAY WITH THE ACTUAL FRONTAL PASSAGE. BEHIND THE FRONT... HIGH
PRESSURE AND DRY...COOL CONDITIONS ARE ON TAP FOR THE WEEKEND.

39

PREV LONG TERM DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 335 AM EDT MON SEP 29 2014/

LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE CWFA BY THE LATE WEEK.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD SOUTH ACROSS MUCH OF GEORGIA BY
TUESDAY NIGHT AND REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. BY
THURSDAY... A SHARP COLD FRONT BEGINS TO ENTER THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY AND A WARM FRONT OVER FLORIDA BEGINS TO MOVE
NORTHWARD. ISENTROPIC LIFT ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE WARM FRONT
SHOULD HELP INCREASE MOISTURE AND THE CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CWFA DURING THE DAY THURSDAY. HAVE INCLUDED
SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THE WEST.

BY MIDDAY FRIDAY...THE FRONT WILL BE POISED TO ENTER THE WESTERN
CWFA. THE BOUNDARY SHOULD MOVE THROUGH THE ENTIRE CWFA BY EARLY
SATURDAY. PRETTY STRONG MID LEVEL ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THE
FROPA...SO SCATTERED THUNDER REMAINS REASONABLE.

COOLER TEMPS EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. ANOTHER TASTE OF FALL.

NLISTEMAA

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z UPDATE...
CIGS HOVERING RIGHT BETWEEN IFR AND MVFR AT TAF TIME...BUT EXPECT
THEM TO BOTTOM OUT FULLY IFR IF NOT LIFR IN SOME PLACES. HAVE
STARTED THE TAFS PESSIMISTIC EXPECTING CIGS TO DROP SOON. SOME DZ
WITH MVFR VSBY AS WELL. CLOUDS SHOULD START SCATTERING BETWEEN
13-14Z WITH A SLOW LIFTING TREND THROUGH 18Z AS CLOUDS TRANSITION
TO FEW. MAYBE SOME INTERMITTENT MID- TO HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDS LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT. WINDS GENERALLY NE THROUGH THE PERIOD
AROUND 5 KT TO START BUT DROPPING TOMORROW AND VRB N TO E
ESPECIALLY LATE IN THE PERIOD.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...06Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM ON MORNING CIGS/VSBY.
HIGH ON ALL OTHER ELEMENTS.

TDP

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          81  60  84  62 /   5   5   5  10
ATLANTA         82  64  84  65 /   5   5   5  10
BLAIRSVILLE     79  55  79  57 /   5   5   5  10
CARTERSVILLE    82  58  84  62 /   5   5   5  10
COLUMBUS        84  66  86  66 /   5   5   5  10
GAINESVILLE     81  62  83  62 /   5   5   5  10
MACON           83  63  86  63 /   5   5   5  10
ROME            83  58  86  62 /   5   5   5  10
PEACHTREE CITY  82  60  84  62 /   5   5   5  10
VIDALIA         82  65  86  65 /   5   5   5  10

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$




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