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Area Forecast Discussion

826
FXUS62 KFFC 101931
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
231 PM EST WED FEB 10 2016


.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
ANOTHER UPPER DISTURBANCE IS HEADED THIS WAY IN THE FAST NW FLOW
ALOFT THAT COULD CAUSE SCATTERED FLURRIES OVER PORTIONS OF N GA
TONIGHT...AS FAR S AS THE NORTHERN METRO AREA. FLURRIES MEANS
LITTLE OR NO ACCUMULATION.

THE BEST MOISTURE SUBSIDES FOR THURSDAY BUT THE EUROPEAN IS INDICATING
ANOTHER DISTURBANCE FOR THURSDAY NIGHT WITH SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE BUT
THE GFS AND NAM KEEP THE BEST MOISTURE N AND E OF THE AREA. FOR NOW
WILL KEEP THURSDAY NIGHT DRY AND WATCH THE PROGRESSION OF THE MODELS.

WILL CONTINUE THE WIND CHILL ADVISORY FOR THE COLD WINDIER AREAS OF THE
NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS UNTIL 10 AM THURSDAY.

FORECAST LOW TEMPERATURES RUNNING AROUND 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL TONIGHT
AND NEAR TO 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL THURSDAY NIGHT. FORECAST HIGH
TEMPERATURES RUNNING ABOUT 3-7 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR THURSDAY.

OVERALL CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM

BDL


.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
PER THE MONDAY SYSTEM...CONFIDENCE HAS GROWN ENOUGH TO INCREASE POPS
TO LIKELY FOR MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT OVER THE CWA. THE BIG QUESTION
IS P-TYPE. PARTIAL THICKNESS IS LEANING TO A MIX OF RAIN/FREEZING
RAIN/SLEET/SNOW ON BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF ALTHOUGH THE ECMWF IS
THE WARMER OF THE MODELS. WHAT WE ARE PRETTY CONFIDENT WITH IS
THAT SOME TYPE OF WINTER PRECIPITATION WILL FALL ACROSS NORTH
GEORGIA BEGINNING SUNDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING INTO MONDAY NIGHT
AND TUESDAY. THE QUESTION IS WHAT AND HOW MUCH. AT THIS TIME WILL
LEAVE IT AS A RAIN/SNOW MIX...AND AS WE GET CLOSER TO THE SCENARIO
WE CAN GET MORE DETAILED WITH P-TYPE...WE ARE STILL 5 DAYS OUT AND
A LOT CAN CHANGE BETWEEN NOW AND THEN. NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT CHANGES
ARE PLANNED TO THE LONG TERM.

17

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z UPDATE...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS FORECAST PERIOD.
PATCHY MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE AREA THROUGH 00Z...BUT SHOULD REMAIN NORTH OF THE TAF SITES.
ANY BKN DECKS LESS THAN 10KFT WILL BE CONFINED N OF TAF SITES
TONIGHT. THERE IS SOME POSSIBILITY OF SOME MVFR CIGS RETURNING
TOMORROW NIGHT. SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES CONTINUE
ACROSS THE NORTH THROUGH 21Z. WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS 8-12KT W/
GUSTS 16-22KT THROUGH 15Z...INCREASING TO 10-15KT W/ GUSTS 20-25KT
BY 18Z BEFORE DIMINISHING TO 8-12KT AFTER 00Z. TONIGHT EXPECT LESS
LIGHTER NW WINDS LESS THAN 10KTS AT ALL TAF SITES.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...18Z UPDATE...
HIGH

JAN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          25  49  30  53 /   0   0  10  10
ATLANTA         27  50  34  54 /   0   0  10  10
BLAIRSVILLE     20  42  26  45 /  10   0  10  10
CARTERSVILLE    23  48  29  52 /  10   0  10  10
COLUMBUS        29  58  38  62 /   0   0   5  10
GAINESVILLE     25  45  30  49 /  10   0  10  10
MACON           27  55  36  61 /   0   0  10  10
ROME            23  48  28  52 /  10   0  10  10
PEACHTREE CITY  24  52  31  56 /   0   0   5  10
VIDALIA         29  57  42  60 /   0   0  10  10

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THURSDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: DAWSON...FANNIN...GILMER...LUMPKIN...MURRAY...PICKENS...
TOWNS...UNION...WHITE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BDL
LONG TERM....17
AVIATION...BDL



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