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Area Forecast Discussion

398
FXUS62 KFFC 220539 AAC
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
1235 AM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

.UPDATE...
HAVE MADE ONLY MINOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST THIS
EVENING...INCLUDING SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS TO HOURLY GRIDS THROUGH
EARLY SATURDAY. NO ADDITIONAL UPDATES ARE PLANNED AT THIS TIME.

31

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 640 PM EST FRI NOV 21 2014/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 242 PM EST FRI NOV 21 2014/

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MODELS ALL FAIRLY IN AGREEMENT. THERE ARE SOME TIMING AND
STRENGTH DIFFERENCES FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WITH THE PRECIP BUT
THESE ARE RELATIVELY MINOR. FOR TONIGHT AND SATURDAY HIGH PRESSURE
WILL DOMINATE THE CWA. THE CENTER OF THE HIGH WILL MOVE TO THE
EAST SIDE OF THE APPALACHIANS AND THEN RIDGES INTO THE CWA
BRINGING AN EAST FLOW. AS THE STORM SYSTEM LIFTS OUT OF THE
WESTERN GULF AND INTO THE SOUTHEAST...A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT INTO
CENTRAL GA AND THEN STALL. AS MOISTURE BEGINS TO SPREAD NORTHWARD
ACROSS THE CWA LATE SATURDAY IT WILL OVERRUN THE COLD DOME OF AIR
ALREADY IN PLACE WHICH WILLS STRENGTHEN THE INSITU-WEDGE. THE
MODELS SHOW THAT THE WARM FRONT WILL LIFT ACROSS AL AND EXTREME
WESTERN GA LATE SUNDAY BUT REMAIN IN PLACE ALONG THE FALL LINE ON
SUNDAY.

TEMPERATURES... WITH A COOL EAST FLOW...EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO BE
SLIGHTLY COOLER SATURDAY THAN TODAY THE PROBLEM COMES WITH SUNDAY.
THE FRONT WILL MARK THE SEPARATION BETWEEN TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW
TO MID 50S NORTH OF THE FRONT...AND 60S TO LOWER 70S SOUTH OF THE
FRONT. DEPENDING ON HOW FAR NORTH THE FRONT LIFTS WILL ALSO DEPEND
ON MAX TEMPS. AT THIS TIME TEMPS ALONG THE GA/AL BORDER SHOULD REACH
INTO THE MID 60S LATE SUNDAY AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS ACROSS THAT
AREA.

PRECIPITATION...RAIN WILL SPREAD SOUTH TO NORTH BEGINNING LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY. THE GREATEST
INSTABILITY WILL BE ACROSS CENTRAL GA...IN THE WARM SECTOR.
HELICITIES ARE EXPECTED TO RUN HIGH IN THIS AREA AS WELL. THEREFORE
WILL MAINTAIN A FEW STORMS SEVERE IN THE GRIDS FOR SUNDAY ACROSS
CENTRAL GA. AREAS NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT WILL BE IN THE COLD DOME
AND THEREFORE THE RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER IS MINIMAL. SHOWALTER INDEX
INDICATED THAT ALTHOUGH AREAS NORTH OF THE FRONT WILL BE IN THE COLD
DOME...THERE IS ENOUGH ELEVATED INSTABILITY TO KEEP THE MENTION OF
THUNDER FOR NORTH GA.

HEAVY RAIN...MODELS ARE COMING MORE IN LINE WITH SHOWING CENTRAL
GEORGIA HAVING THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL WITH 2-3 INCHES TOTAL WITH
DIMINISHING AMOUNTS NORTHWARD THROUGH THE CWA...ALTHOUGH THERE ARE
STILL DIFFERENCES IN AMOUNTS. THEREFORE...AT THIS TIME WILL NOT
ISSUE ANY FLOOD WATCHES DUE TO UNCERTAINTY.

17

LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
RAIN /AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL GA/ WILL CONTINUE
FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE EXTENDED. CANNOT RULE OUT SOME OF THE
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS CONTINUING INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE
EVENING...HOWEVER INSTABILITY QUICKLY DIMINISHES ACROSS THE CWA
AND OVERNIGHT IS CONFINED TO THE FAR SE. SYSTEM JUST DOES NOT WANT
TO CLEAR OUT ACROSS THE SE PART OF THE CWA SO RAIN WILL LINGER
ACROSS THAT AREA THROUGH TUESDAY. SOME BIG MODEL DIFFERENCES AS
WE MOVE INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF BRING A
SHORTWAVE ACROSS THE TN VALLEY...BUT THE IMPACTS SUGGESTED BY EACH
MODEL ARE DIFFERENT. GFS WANTS TO KEEP PRECIP CONFINED TO NORTH
GEORGIA WHILE THE ECMWF SPREADS THE MOISTURE ACROSS THE WHOLE CWA
AND LINGERS PRECIP INTO THURSDAY. STILL A BIT OF A WAYS OUT AND
HAVE LEANED TOWARDS THE DRIER GFS FOR NOW BUT HAVE INTRODUCED A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF POPS INTO FAR NORTH GEORGIA. BASED ON
TEMPERATURES...THIS WOULD BE A RAIN/SNOW MIX. WILL NEED TO
CONTINUE MONITORING THIS TO SEE HOW THE MODELS EVOLVE.

11

&&

AVIATION...
06Z UPDATE...

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH 00Z. PERIODS OF SCATTERED
MVFR OR LOWER VISIBILITIES ARE POSSIBLE BETWEEN 06Z AND 14Z.
SCATTERED TO OCCASIONALLY BROKEN MVFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED INTO FAR
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA BY 18Z...REACHING THE KCSG
AND KMCN TAF SITES BETWEEN 20Z AND 00Z. THESE MVFR CEILINGS WILL
SPREAD NORTH INTO THE ATLANTA AREA TAF SITES BY 02Z AND INTO THE
KAHN AREA BY 02-04Z. AN AREA OF RAIN WITH SCATTERED...EMBEDDED
SHOWERS SPREADS NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA BETWEEN 00Z AND 06Z. WINDS
WILL REMAIN EASTERLY THROUGH THE PERIOD...GENERALLY 6KTS OR LESS
THROUGH 14Z THEN INCREASING TO 6-10KTS.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...06Z UPDATE...

HIGH ON ALL ELEMENTS EXCEPT MEDIUM TO HIGH ON TIMING OF MVFR
CEILINGS REACHING THE AIRFIELD.

20

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          33  56  44  56 /   0   5  90 100
ATLANTA         37  56  46  58 /   0   5 100 100
BLAIRSVILLE     29  54  39  52 /   0   5  90 100
CARTERSVILLE    32  58  43  57 /   0   5  90 100
COLUMBUS        39  62  52  67 /   0   5 100 100
GAINESVILLE     35  56  43  53 /   0   5  90 100
MACON           37  61  52  67 /   0   5 100 100
ROME            31  59  43  59 /   0   5  90 100
PEACHTREE CITY  35  57  46  61 /   0   5 100 100
VIDALIA         39  63  55  71 /   0   5 100 100

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...31
LONG TERM....39
AVIATION...31



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