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Area Forecast Discussion

167
FXUS62 KFFC 201412
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
1010 AM EDT SUN APR 20 2014


.UPDATE...
UPDATED TO TWEAK CLOUD COVER FOR TODAY AND ALSO REMOVED MENTION OF
LIGHT RAIN FROM THE EAST. OTHERWISE NO CHANGES.


41


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 430 AM EDT SUN APR 20 2014/

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE WHICH HAS PLAGUED THE AREA THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS
WITH COOL AND RAINY CONDITIONS HAS FINALLY SHIFTED EAST OFF THE
FLORID COAST FOLLOWING THE LEAD OF STACKED UPPER LOW WHICH IS IN A
SIMILAR POSITION. WITH DNVA ON BACK SIDE OF THIS FEATURE AS WELL
AS REDUCED MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AT THE LOW LEVELS...LIGHT RAIN HAS
ABATED WITH RADAR INDICATED ONLY ISOLATED COVERAGE OVER
EASTERN ZONES. ALTHOUGH PRECIP IS GREATLY REDUCED...LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE REMAINS PLENTIFUL FROM LA GRANGE TO ATHENS WITH OVERCAST
LOW CLOUD CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGH DAYBREAK.

LOW LEVEL CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE WITH WHAT LITTLE PRECIP
THERE IS COMING TO AN END. SHOULD SEE AT LEAST SOME SUN OVER ALL
LOCATIONS BY THIS AFTERNOON BUT ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTH AND
WILL LEAN TOWARD THE WARMER GUIDANCE FOR HIGH TEMPS.

WILL BE IN BETWEEN SYSTEMS FOR MONDAY WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
BUILDING SLIGHTLY OVER THE AREA ALONG WITH PLENTY OF DRY AIR.
SHOULD SEE A NICE TEMPERATURE RECOVERY WITH AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE
ALLOWING FOR MID 70S ACROSS MOST AREAS.

DEESE

LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
00Z MON...A SHORTWAVE OVER THE PLAINS STATES DEVELOPS INTO A
CLOSED LOW CENTER AND MOVES OVER THE GREAT LAKE STATES BY 00Z TUE.
ITS TRAILING COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY AND INTO NA GA BY 12Z TUE. WILL SEE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SWEEP THROUGH THE STATE TUE AND COULD SEE SOME
FAIRLY STRONG STORMS AS INSTABILITY INDICES INCREASE DURING THE
DAY TUE. THE LATEST MODEL RUNS ARE SHOWING A BIT LEES INSTABILITY
THAN PREVIOUS RUNS BUT STILL KEEPING THUNDER IN THE FORECAST.
WILL HAVE TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON THIS AS TO JUST HOW MUCH THUNDER
WE WILL SEEN. THIS FRONT SHOULD BE EAST OF THE STATE BY 00Z TO 06Z
WED WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING BACK IN FOR WED AND THU. NEXT
FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT THE AREA AGAIN BY FRI AS A
DEVELOPING SYSTEM MOVES EAST OUT OF THE MS RIVER VALLEY. THE MODELS
ARE SHOWING A BIT MORE INSTABILITY WITH THE FRI SYSTEM THAN THE
TUESDAY ONE BUT ITS SHOWING THERE SHOWING LESS AVAILABLE MOISTURE.
WILL HAVE TO MONITOR THE SITUATION TO SE HOW THINGS DEVELOP

01

.AVIATION...
12Z UPDATE...
AXIS OF NORTHERN EXTENT OF LOW CLOUDS HAS SET UP RIGHT JUST SOUTH OF
THE ATL TERMINALS THIS MORNING MAKING FOR A CHALLENGING FORECAST.
WILL GO WITH VFR FOR ATL TERMINALS AND AHN AS TREND WOULD
CONTINUE TO BE FOR IMPROVING CONDITIONS. IFR AND MVFR CIG MORE
FIRMLY ENTRENCHED FOR MCN AND CSG AND CARRY THIS FLIGHT CATEGORY
FOR THEM THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. WIND GUSTS HAVE ABATED FOR THE
MOMENT AT ALL SITES BUT COULD SEE SOME LOW END GUSTS BY MID
MORNING BUT ONLY LASTING UNTIL EARLY AFTERNOON WHEN WINDS DROP OFF
AGAIN.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...12Z UPDATE...

HIGH ON ALL ELEMENTS.

DEESE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          70  45  75  57 /  20   0   5  10
ATLANTA         69  50  73  59 /   0   5   5  10
BLAIRSVILLE     71  45  72  53 /   0   5   5  20
CARTERSVILLE    73  48  74  55 /   0   5   5  20
COLUMBUS        71  49  77  59 /   0   5   5  10
GAINESVILLE     69  48  73  58 /   0   5   0  20
MACON           65  45  77  55 /  10   0   5   5
ROME            74  47  75  56 /   0   5   5  30
PEACHTREE CITY  69  44  75  56 /   0   5   5  10
VIDALIA         65  51  77  56 /  20   0   0   5

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DEESE
LONG TERM....01
AVIATION...DEESE








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