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Area Forecast Discussion

FXUS62 KFFC 251357 CCA

Area Forecast Discussion...CORRECTED
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
957 AM EDT WED MAY 25 2016

Isolated showers continue across north AL associated with a vort
max moving across central TN. These showers will continue and
should push into northwest GA by late morning. Will add slight
chance pops to northwest GA. No other changes planned.


.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 330 AM EDT WED MAY 25 2016/

SHORT TERM /Today through Thursday/...

High pressure will move offshore today. Not much going on weather-
wise at the surface for the next two days. However, the mid levels
will remain active.

Nearly zonal flow aloft will allow for several shortwaves in the
flow to traverse the CWFA through Thursday afternoon. The hi-res
models are beginning to pick up on these features and produce a
little more coverage of convection than in previous forecasts. The
models, even the hi-res, still have difficulty timing these features
and struggle with convective coverage even in the best of times. So,
have blended the trends of the local arw and wrf runs to paint
iso/sct coverage mainly across the north Georgia mountains today. A
bit more coverage is indicated tomorrow...with iso/sct coverage
mainly north of I-20.

Temps will continue to above normal.


LONG TERM /Thursday Night through Tuesday/...

Extended forecast period starts out somewhat quiet as subsidence and
slightly drier air push in from the east ahead of the western
Atlantic low Friday through much of Saturday. Deep Atlantic moisture
pushes in by Sunday as the western Atlantic system edges closer.
First half of next week looks to be potentially quite wet as this
system lingers over the region. Still some differences between the
GFS and ECMWF models concerning some of the details...but both show
some manner of weak upper-level and surface low pressure wobbling
around the Carolinas and Georgia. Precipitable water values are
forecast to be in the 1.5-2.0 inch range through the period but weak
mid-level lapse rates keep instability minimal.


12Z Update...
VFR conditions through the period. Hi-res models are producing a
little more convective coverage for today and Thursday...but the
best chances remain to the north of ATL at this time. The main
forecast challenge remains the winds.Winds could go se for a few
hours around 12z this morning...but should go back to the w side
with mixing. Hi-res models showing winds going to the east side
again this evening and overnight. Speeds will remain light and
should average around 6kt or less.

//ATL Confidence...06Z Update...
Medium confidence winds. Otherwise...high confidence all elements.


Athens          87  63  88  64 /  10   5  30  20
Atlanta         86  67  87  66 /  10   5  20  20
Blairsville     82  60  84  60 /  30  10  30  20
Cartersville    88  63  88  65 /  10   5  20  20
Columbus        88  66  88  67 /  10   5  10   5
Gainesville     85  65  86  64 /  20   5  30  20
Macon           89  64  89  63 /  10   5  20   5
Rome            88  62  89  64 /  20   5  30  20
Peachtree City  87  62  87  63 /  10   5  20  10
Vidalia         88  65  88  65 /  10   5  10   0





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