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Area Forecast Discussion

244
FXUS62 KFFC 291140
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
740 AM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 400 AM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014/

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...

GUIDANCE IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH AT LEAST THE MAIN SYNOPTIC
FEATURES IN THE SHORT TERM AND CONTINUES TO SUPPORT THE ABNORMALLY
STRONG UPPER RIDGE SHIFTING EAST WITH THE RETURN OF GULF MOISTURE BY
SATURDAY. TODAY THROUGH MOST OF TONIGHT LOOKS TO BE DRY WITH A
GRADUAL INCREASE IN CLOUD COVERAGE FROM THE SW. THE UPPER SHORTWAVE
TROUGH PROGGED TO APPROACH THE WESTERN TENNESSEE AND OHIO VALLEYS BY
SATURDAY LOOKS TO DAMPEN AND LIFT NORTHEASTWARD KEEPING MOST OF THE
WAVE ENERGY NW OF THE STATE. THERE DOES NOT LOOK TO BE MUCH IN THE
WAY OF PVA FOR ENHANCED PRECIP CHANCES AND LIKELY MORE OF A
DIURNALLY DRIVEN OR OROGRAPHICALLY ENHANCED COMPONENT TO CONVECTION.
GUIDANCE IS CONSISTENT WITH ABNORMALLY HIGH PWATS ADVECTING INTO THE
CWA BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON NEAR 2.0 OR SLIGHTLY HIGHER WHICH IS
BETWEEN THE 75TH-99TH CLIMO PERCENTILE. WHILE ACTIVITY SHOULD HAVE
HIGH PRECIP EFFICIENCY...THERE IS NOT HIGH CONFIDENCE IN
SHOWER/STORM COVERAGE BEING VERY GREAT. HI-RES SOLUTIONS SUGGEST
FAIRLY LIMITED COVERAGE AND MORE OF A MID-RANGE CHANCE POPS BY 18Z
SATURDAY. GIVEN THE ENHANCED MOISTURE FIELD AND THE CHANCE FOR A
WEAK PERTURBATION TRAVELING ALONG THE TROUGH TO THE NW...HAVE KEPT
SOME LIKELY POPS IN THE FAR NW BUT CHANCE ELSEWHERE FOR SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. MLCAPES LOOK TO BE GREATEST SW NEAR 1500 J/KG SO NOT
ANTICIPATING MUCH INTENSITY TO DEVELOPMENT. QPF VARIES QUITE A BIT
AMONG THE GUIDANCE MEMBERS SO WENT WITH GENERAL BLEND AND ABOUT A
QUARTER TO THIRD OF AN INCH POSSIBLE SATURDAY /SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN
BEFORE/ THOUGH OF COURSE HIGHER VALUES POSSIBLE IN LOCAL AREAS GIVEN
THE AFOREMENTIONED HIGH PWATS.

FOR TEMPS...GENERAL BLEND OF MODEL SOLUTIONS HAVE VERIFIED WELL
RECENTLY WHICH GIVES HIGHS TODAY ABOUT 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...THEN
SHIFT TO NEAR NORMAL FOR SATURDAY WITH MORE TYPICAL MOIST AIRMASS.

BAKER

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...

MODELS IN A LITTLE BETTER AGREEMENT AS THE LONG TERM PERIOD BEGINS
WITH VORT MAX LINGERING OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AS UPPER RIDGE
HOLDS OVER THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE STATE. THIS VORT MAX IS MORE
STRUNG OUT PROVIDING LITTLE LIFT ON THE ECMWF BUT MORE POTENT WITH
DISTINCT TROUGH NOTED ON LATEST GFS. REGARDLESS...PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES WILL BE HIGH...ON THE ORDER OF 1.8 TO 2.2 INCHES
WHICH SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR LIKELY POPS TO THE NORTH WHERE
SHORTWAVE ENERGY RESIDES AND MID RANGE CHANCE TO THE SOUTH. THERE
IS A DISTINCT AREA OF MID LEVEL DRY AIR NOTED ON THE ECMWF WHICH
COULD LEAD TO REDUCED POPS FOR THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST
AREA DESPITE AFOREMENTIONED ENERGY BUT WILL NEED A FEW MORE RUNS
TO CONFIRM BEFORE GETTING FULLY ONBOARD WITH THIS SOLUTION.

INTO EARLY AND MID WEEK...THE EURO IS DEFINITELY MORE AGGRESSIVE IN
BUILD MID AND UPPER RIDGE BACK OVER THE AREA AND LIMITING POPS.
FOR NOW HAVE GONE WITH A BLEND OF THIS DRIER SOLUTION AND THE
SLIGHTLY WETTER GFS WHICH SUPPRESSES RIDGE TO THE SOUTH WHILE
STRUNG OUT VORT MAX PROVIDES FOCUS FOR CONVECTION. THIS YIELDS
GENERALLY LOW TO MID RANGE CHANCE POPS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
EXTENDED PORTION. WITH UPPER RIDGE IN PLACE...SHOULD SEE SOME
INCREASE IN MAX TEMPS ALTHOUGH GUIDANCE NOT ESPECIALLY BULLISH ON
THIS ASPECT. WILL NEED TO MONITOR TO SEE IF THEY TREND UPWARD WITH
FUTURE RUNS BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE SOME MID 90S BY TUE
OR WED.

DEESE

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z UPDATE...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH PERIOD. INITIAL CALM TO LIGHT VRB
WINDS BECOMING SOUTHERLY WITH SOME POSSIBLE WAIVERING FROM SSW TO
SSE TODAY UNDER 7 KTS. LOOKING LIKE KATL WILL HAVE SSW BEFORE 19Z
THEN SHIFT SSE AND MOSTLY STAY ON EAST SIDE THROUGH THE PERIOD.
SOME FEW TO SCT COVERAGE NEAR 6-7 KFT ALONG WITH
CIRRUS...OTHERWISE INCREASED COVERAGE NEAR END OF FORECAST PERIOD
ALONG WITH INCREASING SHOWER/STORM CHANCE. HAVE STARTED PROB30 FOR
-SHRA AFTER 15Z SATURDAY FOR KATL BUT GREATER CHANCE JUST BEYOND
PERIOD.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...12Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM ON WIND SHIFT.
HIGH ALL ELSE.

BAKER

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          95  67  92  70 /  10  10  40  20
ATLANTA         92  72  89  72 /  10  10  50  20
BLAIRSVILLE     87  62  84  65 /  10  10  50  30
CARTERSVILLE    93  67  90  69 /  10  10  50  20
COLUMBUS        93  73  92  74 /  10  10  50  10
GAINESVILLE     91  69  88  71 /  10  10  50  30
MACON           95  70  93  71 /  10  10  40  30
ROME            94  66  91  70 /  10  20  70  20
PEACHTREE CITY  92  67  89  70 /  10  10  50  20
VIDALIA         95  72  93  73 /  10  10  30  10

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BAKER
LONG TERM....DEESE
AVIATION...BAKER





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