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Area Forecast Discussion

738
FXUS62 KFFC 171940
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
340 PM EDT WED SEP 17 2014

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIODS.
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT AS FAR AS THE TRACK OF THE UPPER LOW
OVER CANADA AND THE LONGWAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. THE
SURFACE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST BY LATE
TONIGHT...WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE AREA.  ISOLATED
SHOWERS ARE DEVELOPING OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL GA AND HAVE
CONTINUED SHOWERS INTO THE EVENING HOURS.  MODELS SHOW AN MCS OVER
THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WHICH WILL REMAIN TO THE WEST OVERNIGHT INTO
TOMORROW MORNING...HOWEVER THE MODELS ARE SHOWING ENOUGH MOISTURE
SPREADING ACROSS THE AREA FOR INCREASED MID LEVEL CLOUDS TOMORROW.
NAM IS MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH THE MOISTURE...BUT THINK WE WILL SEE
ENOUGH FOR SCATTERED CLOUDS THROUGHOUT THE DAY TOMORROW.  GUIDANCE
TEMPERATURES ARE CLOSE AND HAVE GONE WITH A BLEND.

ATWELL


.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HAVE ONLY MADE MINOR TWEAKS TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST. MODELS MORE
CONSISTENT WITH INDICATING EASTERLY FLOW EVENT FRIDAY AFTERNOON
INTO SATURDAY...SO HAVE INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND POPS SLIGHTLY
/TO SLIGHT CHANCE/ ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN AND SOUTHERN
CWA. ASIDE FROM THAT...CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS TO BE ON TRACK.

31

/ISSUED AT 411 AM EDT WED SEP 17 2014/
THE EXTENDED FORECAST STARTS OUT WITH THE DRIER AIRMASS OVER THE
REGION AND NO PRECIPITATION. HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER THE STATE
WILL KEEP GEORGIA DRY THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY/SUNDAY MORNING BEFORE
ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES INTO NORTH GA MONDAY. BOTH THE GFS
AND ECMWF AGREE WITH THE DRIER AIR MASS AND HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
STAYING OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. AS THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM
MOVES INTO NORTH GA THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WEAKENS A BIT WITH THE
MAJORITY OF THE MOISTURE STAYING NORTH AND EAST OF THE STATE. HAVE
DECIDED TO ONLY GO WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS NORTH GA SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND SPREADING THE PRECIP SOUTHWARD
MONDAY/TUESDAY. MODELS ALSO CONTINUE TO INDICATE COOLER TEMPS IN
STORE FOR THE STATE...ESPECIALLY WITH THE COOLER DRIER AIR MASS
MOVING IN. LOOKING AT HIGH TEMPS IN THE 70S AND 80S THROUGH THE
BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.

01

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z UPDATE...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS TAF SITES. NORTH TO NORTHWEST
WINDS 5-10KTS WILL DIMINISH TO 5KTS OR LESS AFTER 02Z...AND WILL
REMAIN LESS THAN 6KTS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. SURFACE HIGH
WILL SHIFT FAR ENOUGH EAST FOR NORTHEAST WINDS TOMORROW...HAVE A
SHIFT IN AT 15Z FOR NOW BUT MAY NEED TO MONITOR TIMING. NO WEATHER
IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...18Z UPDATE...
HIGH CONFIDENCE ALL ELEMENTS.

ATWELL

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          63  83  63  80 /   5  10  10  10
ATLANTA         64  84  65  81 /   5   5  10  10
BLAIRSVILLE     57  79  56  76 /  10  10   5  20
CARTERSVILLE    58  85  60  83 /   5   5   5  10
COLUMBUS        65  88  66  87 /   5   5   5  10
GAINESVILLE     64  82  63  78 /  10  10  10  10
MACON           63  87  63  86 /   5   5   5  20
ROME            58  86  59  84 /   5   5   5  10
PEACHTREE CITY  58  85  61  83 /   5   5   5  10
VIDALIA         67  85  69  86 /  20  10  10  30

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ATWELL
LONG TERM....31
AVIATION...ATWELL





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