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Area Forecast Discussion

445
FXUS62 KFFC 290025
AFDFFC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
825 PM EDT SUN AUG 28 2016

...updated for aviation discussion...

.AVIATION...
00Z Update...
vfr conditions expected through this TAF cycle. Latest guidance
suggesting some lower CU in the morning than the previous
forecast. Could be as low as 025 before lifting to around 045 to
050 and thinning by early afternoon. Not expecting a lot of SH or
TS activity on Monday but cannot rule one out affecting a site or
two at some point after 18z through 00z. East winds again will
become gusty in the afternoon and diminish at sunset.

//ATL Confidence...00Z Update...
High on all elements.

30


.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 316 PM EDT SUN AUG 28 2016/

SHORT TERM /Tonight through Monday Night/...
High pressure across New England will move offshore today while a
tropical system, once Fiona but now TD Eight, will continue to trek
closer to the Carolina Coast.

Given ample dry air within the atmospheric column, do not anticipate
widespread convection today.  However, have noted some low/mid level
moisture across the higher elevations on soundings along with a weak
mid-level impulse. With enough convergence/lift some thunderstorms
have already begun to development, thus kept pops higher across this
region. Some model guidance illustrating some showers/iso
thunderstorms across the metro later this afternoon, but coverage
should be limited. Otherwise, anticipate a warm end to the day with
scu lingering through the remainder of the afternoon.

Tonight: Expect a quiet night across much of the area with light
easterly winds.  With the tropical wave approaching the Carolina
coast, should see an increase in cloud cover across the region,
especially during the morning hours. Some models are indicating fog,
but any thick cloud coverage would hinder fog development. But if
clouds do not materialize and enough moisture gets trapped in the
lowest levels, fog could then develop. Will need to monitor the
moisture flux through the evening/overnight hours to get a better
idea about this potential. But as of right now, not expecting
widespread stratus/fog issues. Lows around 70, apart from the cooler
temperatures across the higher terrain.

Monday: The tropical depression, which is also noted in the mid and
upper levels, will move closer to Carolina coast by the morning
hours with the sfc feature situated off NC. The mid level impulses
moving westward will help to bring more moisture/lift into the
region, especially across the central and southern tier of GA. This
combined with marginal instability should promote coverage of
showers/thunderstorms across the southern half of the CWA. With
better cloud and precip coverage, feel that temps may be a couple
degrees down from persistence. Highs in the low/mid 90s, with the
higher terrain in the mid/upper 80s.

Monday Night:  Any thunderstorm activity should wane through the
evening hours, unless mid-level forcing is present. Clouds should
also diminish as convective debris becomes sheared. Quiet night
otherwise with lows in the upper 60s/lower 70s.

26

LONG TERM /Tuesday through Sunday/...
The uncertainly in the long term portion of the forecast still
revolves around the tropics. Specifically, what is going to happen
with 99L. Still thinking persistence is they way to go, but have
made a few tweaks to pops...mainly in the Thursday Night/Friday time
period.

By Tuesday...the low pressure associated with 99L will set up over
the eastern Gulf of Mexico. Models still diverge on the evolution
of the system...timing-wise and location. The GFS and EC are coming
a bit more into line with sitting over the NE Gulf and then moving
onshore near the big bend of Florida during the latter part of the
week. The EC moves the system onshore a little sooner than the GFS.
Either way, the low pressure center will interact with a stalled
frontal boundary across central GA late Thursday into Friday.
Rainfall chances have come up a bit across the southern CWFA during
this time, so have made some tweaks to this portion of the forecast.
In addition, the axis of heaviest rainfall has crept northward into
southern GA.

NListemaa

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          71  91  70  91 /  20  20  10  20
Atlanta         72  90  73  90 /  20  20   5  20
Blairsville     64  88  64  86 /  30  10  10  20
Cartersville    70  91  69  91 /  20  10   5  20
Columbus        74  92  73  92 /  10  20   5  20
Gainesville     70  89  70  89 /  20  20  10  20
Macon           72  92  72  93 /  10  20  20  20
Rome            70  92  69  93 /  20  10   5  10
Peachtree City  70  90  69  90 /  20  20   5  20
Vidalia         74  92  73  92 /  10  30  20  30

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM....17
AVIATION...30



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