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Area Forecast Discussion

489
FXUS62 KFFC 040829
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
429 AM EDT FRI SEP 4 2015

.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT. NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT WITH A WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THRU THE PERIOD. AT
THE SFC...A WEAK BOUNDARY WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTH THROUGH
TONIGHT...ALLOWING HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHEAST
TOMORROW. THIS WILL BRING NORTH TO NORTHEAST FLOW TO THE AREA.
MODELS SHOWING GOOD MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA AND WITH DAY TIME
HEATING EXPECT ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON.
BETTER RAIN CHANCES ON SATURDAY AS WEDGE FRONT PUSHES WESTWARD.
INSTABILITY WILL BE MINIMAL WITH JUST ISOLATED THUNDER EXPECTED.
GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES ARE CLOSE TODAY AND TONIGHT AND SEE NO
REASON TO STRAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY WILL BE DEPENDENT
UPON THE AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER WITH THE WEDGE...WITH A LARGER
SPREAD IN GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES OVER EAST GA. HAVE GONE WITH A
BLEND MOST AREAS AND STAYED CLOSER TO COOLER MAV OVER EASTERN
AREAS.


ATWELL


.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
UPPER LOW WILL BE SITUATED ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES AT THE
BEGINNING OF THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST. THE LOW WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND...BUT SHOULD OPEN UP
AND BECOME AN OPEN WAVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN GOMEX BY EARLY NEXT
WEEK. THE MID LEVEL FLOW MAY TRY AND GO MORE ZONAL ACROSS THE CWFA
DURING THIS TIME.

AT THE SURFACE...WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY SHOULD EVENTUALLY ERODE BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. A COLD
FRONT WILL BEGIN TO DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE CWFA DURING THE LATTER
HALF OF THE WEEK.

NLISTEMAA


&&

..AVIATION...
06Z UPDATE... VFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH
BRIEF MVFR VISIBILITIES IN THE MAINLY 10-13Z AT THE USUAL
SUSPECTS...ALL BUT ATL AND CSG. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT WEST TO
NORTHWEST WITH NNE WINDS AFTER 14Z. CONTINUE TO THINK ISOLD TSRA
POSSIBLE 19Z-01Z THIS AFTERNOON BUT EXPECTED COVERAGE TOO LOW TO
MENTION IN TAFS.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...06Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE ALL ELEMENTS

ATWELL

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          93  70  86  68 /  30  30  50  20
ATLANTA         91  72  88  69 /  30  20  50  20
BLAIRSVILLE     86  65  82  63 /  50  20  50  20
CARTERSVILLE    92  69  89  68 /  30  10  40  20
COLUMBUS        93  73  91  72 /  20  10  40  20
GAINESVILLE     89  70  84  68 /  30  20  50  20
MACON           92  71  89  69 /  30  30  50  30
ROME            92  69  89  68 /  20  10  40  20
PEACHTREE CITY  91  69  88  68 /  30  20  50  20
VIDALIA         92  73  89  70 /  40  40  50  30

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ATWELL
LONG TERM....NLISTEMAA
AVIATION...ATWELL



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