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Area Forecast Discussion

FXUS62 KFFC 221743

Area Forecast Discussion...Updated Aviation
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
143 PM EDT FRI JUL 22 2016

.Previous Discussions.../Issued at 338 AM EDT FRI JUL 22 2016/

SHORT TERM /Today through Saturday/...
Upper ridge centered west of the MS river and extending eastward
across GA will continue as the dominant weather feature through
the short term. Again...no obvious dynamics to focus convection next
couple of days...except maybe any remnant boundaries and the
persistent lee side trough. Forecast PW values look a bit lower
today than yesterday...however at least a slight chance is still
needed across the area with expected hot temperatures and high capes.
Have gone slightly higher pops northeast mountains and portion of
central. With afternoon capes of around 2000 to 2500 or more a few
storms could become strong to severe this afternoon and evening.
Some morning fog is possible due to lingering moisture from Thursday
storms. Not expecting advisory conditions at this time.

Temperatures are basically persistence...highs ranging mid to upper
90s. Still no heat advisory planned for today with only an isolated
area over west central GA possibly reaching 105 heat index.


LONG TERM /Saturday Night through Thursday/...
The long term starts off with a persistent pattern as an upper
ridge continues over the area Saturday night and Sunday. The fly
in the ointment for Sunday is an easterly wave is forecast to move
over FL and this could affect central GA with a little more convective
activity then is currently forecast. Otherwise mainly diurnal showers
and storms for Saturday evening and Sunday afternoon. Another hot day
on Sunday is expected with most high temperatures expected in the 90s
except 80s for portions of the mountains. Heat indices for a large
portion of east and central GA will be in the 103-108 range.

The easterly wave moves into the gulf of Mexico near the coast for
Monday and the upper ridge weakens some. The upper ridge remains
weaker for Tuesday and Wednesday. The GFS and European differ for
Thursday with the GFS transitioning the upper pattern to an upper
trough approaching the area with the European slower in doing so.
This will lead to a continuation of showers and storms that will be
mostly diurnal in nature. Highs in the 90s can be expected for much
of this period except for 80s over portions of the mountains. High
temperatures will become less hot as the week progresses.



18z Update...
Expecting only isolated coverage of storms today and should get
started a bit late as the airmass recharges from numerous storms
seen on Thursday. Pushed the VCSH until 20z this afternoon.
Expecting scattered storms on Saturday as models show an upper
disturbance approaching the state by 15z. This has warranted showing
VCSH by 17z Sat and a prob30 tsra 18-22z Sat. Winds will be sw
around 5-7kts in the afternoon/evening hours...4kts or less
overnight. Not expecting a widespread fog or low stratus threat in
the morning as the airmass will be allowed to dry out with the less
rain coverage expected this afternoon and evening.

//ATL Confidence...18Z Update...
High confidence on all elements.



Athens          97  74  96  75 /  20  20  30  20
Atlanta         95  75  95  76 /  20  20  30  20
Blairsville     90  68  90  69 /  30  30  30  30
Cartersville    94  73  95  73 /  20  20  30  20
Columbus        97  75  97  76 /  30  30  20  20
Gainesville     94  74  95  75 /  20  20  30  20
Macon           97  74  97  75 /  30  30  30  20
Rome            97  73  97  73 /  20  20  30  20
Peachtree City  95  70  96  73 /  20  20  30  20
Vidalia         96  74  96  74 /  30  30  20  20




SHORT TERM...41/39

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