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Area Forecast Discussion

888
FXUS62 KFFC 291553 AAB
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
1153 AM EDT WED OCT 29 2014

.UPDATE...

HAVE MADE UPDATES THROUGH THE MORNING TO UPDATE TRENDS IN THE
GRIDS. INCREASED HOURLY POPS TO ACCOUNT FOR WHERE RAIN IS FALLING
AND EXPANDED COVERAGE TO INCLUDE MORE OF CENTRAL GEORGIA IN THE
LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON THUNDER CHANCES...GIVEN THE CLUSTER
OF CONVECTION BETWEEN MCN AND CSG. SBCAPES ARE QUITE A BIT HIGHER
THAN EXPECTED ACROSS CENTRAL GEORGIA WITH THE CLEARING THIS
MORNING...IN SOME AREAS SBCAPE VALUES ARE CREEPING UPWARDS OF 1000
J/KG. STILL NOT REALLY ANY CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING OBSERVED YET.
THE FRONT IS STILL BACK IN NORTHWEST GEORGIA AND TEMPERATURES ARE
BEING HELD DOWN A BIT MORE THAN EXPECTED WITH THE CLOUD COVER.
OVERALL...JUST TRYING TO CATCH UP WITH NEAR-TERM TRENDS FOR THE
MORNING UPDATE. PRODUCTS OUT SHORTLY.

TDP

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 746 AM EDT WED OCT 29 2014/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 412 AM EDT WED OCT 29 2014/

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...

SHORT TERM RAIN TIMING REMAINS RELATIVELY CLOSE TO WHAT THE PREVIOUS
MODEL RUNS SUGGESTED...THOUGH ONSET IN NW GEORGIA THIS MORNING HAS
BEEN SLOWER THAN THE MODEL SOLUTIONS. FRONT IS STILL EXPECTED TO
PUSH INTO THE STATE THIS MORNING...WITH THE ACCOMPANYING RAINFALL
BEING THE FIRST THE STATE HAS SEEN IN MORE THAN A WEEK. OVERALL
TREND IS THAT THE OCCLUDING FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO LOSE ITS FORM AS
IT MOVES INTO NORTH GEORGIA...AND AN OVERALL STABLE ENVIRONMENT WILL
KEEP THUNDERSTORM CHANCES LOW...THOUGH NON-ZERO. HAVE CONTINUED TO
ADVERTISE LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE NORTH...WITH COVERAGE DIMINISHING
INTO THE AFTERNOON RESULTING IN ONLY GOOD CHANCE POPS. GIVEN THE
DELAY IN ONSET...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT GRID TIMING MAY BE AN HOUR OR
TWO TOO SLOW...BUT CURRENT THINKING STILL MATCHES THE OVERALL SHORT
TERM HI-RES MODEL CONSENSUS.

AS THE FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE ATL METRO AREA AND SOUTHWARD...ANY
HOLES IN THE CLOUD COVER COULD ALLOW FOR ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO SEE
SOME RE-STRENGTHENING WITH A SLIGHTLY HIGHER THUNDERSTORM THREAT
INTO THE AFTERNOON. OVERALL THOUGHTS ARE THAT STORMS WILL BE
ISOLATED AND WILL BE SUB-SEVERE.

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO STAY
FAR ENOUGH NORTH THAT WRAP-AROUND MOISTURE IS NOT A CONCERN AT THIS
TIME. AS A RESULT...HAVE QUICKLY DIMINISHED THE POPS BY THIS
AFTERNOON FOR NORTH GEORGIA...AND TONIGHT FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
CWA...AND HAVE KEPT A DRY TREND THROUGH THE END OF THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD.

COLD AIR ADVECTING INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BRING A
DRASTIC CHANCE IN TEMPERATURES TO THE STATE COMPARED TO OBSERVATIONS
OVER THE LAST WEEK. CHILLY MORNING TEMPERATURES THURSDAY WILL DROP
INTO THE 40S ACROSS A LARGE PORTION OF THE AREA...WITH SOME
LOCALIZED UPPER 30S IN THE NE GA MOUNTAINS. BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON
THE AREA WILL FEEL LIKE FALL WITH TEMPERATURES ONLY REACHING THE MID
60S NORTH TO LOW 70S SOUTH. THESE TEMPERATURE CHANCES CONTINUE INTO
THE WEEKEND.

HAVE GENERALLY USED A BLEND OF MODEL GUIDANCE FOR THE TEMPERATURES.

31

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...

LONG TERM STARTING OUT COOLER AND DRIER WITH UPPER TROUGH OVER
THE OHIO VALLEY PUTTING THE REGION IN A NORTHWEST UPPER FLOW.
STRONG CLOSED LOW ALOFT DIVING INTO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY WILL BRING EVEN COLDER AIR TO FORECAST
AREA. MODELS SEEM STRONGER WITH THIS SYSTEM SO HAVE INCLUDED
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THE EXTREME NORTHERN ZONES FRIDAY AFTERNOON
AND FRIDAY NIGHT. ONLY LIGHT AMOUNTS OF RAIN EXPECTED. SATURDAY
SHOULD BE WINDY WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION...BELOW NORMAL HIGHS
MOSTLY IN THE 50S ACROSS THE AREA. DRY UNTIL THE END OF THE PERIOD
WITH SOME MODERATION OF TEMPERATURES. A RETURN TO SOUTHWEST FLOW
BRINGING RAIN CHANCES CLOSE TO THE NORTHWEST CORNER BY LATE
TUESDAY.

41

AVIATION...
12Z UPDATE...
SHOWERS HAVE PUSHED INTO NW GA THIS MORNING AND WILL CONTINUE TO
PUSH THROUGH THE STATE TODAY. DEGRADING CIGS EXPECTED TO ACCOMPANY
THE RAIN...WITH GENERALLY LOW END MVFR EXPECTED. SHOWERS EXPECTED
TO REACH THE ATL AREA BY 13Z...THEN AHN AND MCN AREAS AFTER 14Z.
ALTHOUGH PREDOMINATE SHOWERS EXPECTED...AN ISOLATED TSTORM IS
POSSIBLE. EXPECT QUICKLY IMPROVING CONDITIONS BEHIND THE RAIN WITH
ALL AREAS VFR BY 21-00Z. EXPECT LIGHT SW WINDS THROUGH 14Z...INCREASING
TO 7-10KT THEN BECOMING WESTERLY THROUGH THE DAY. WINDS WILL SHIFT
TO THE NW BETWEEN 18-00Z.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...12Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ON ALL ELEMENTS.

31

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          73  47  69  45 /  30  10   5   5
ATLANTA         72  48  68  49 /  80  10   0   5
BLAIRSVILLE     66  38  63  39 / 100  10   0   5
CARTERSVILLE    68  41  66  43 / 100  10   0   5
COLUMBUS        78  50  72  49 /  50  30   5   5
GAINESVILLE     70  46  66  46 /  80  10   0   5
MACON           79  48  72  44 /  40  30   5   5
ROME            68  41  67  43 / 100   5   0   5
PEACHTREE CITY  72  43  69  42 /  60  10   0   5
VIDALIA         82  58  74  49 /  30  30   5   5

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$





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