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Area Forecast Discussion

790
FXUS62 KFFC 251630 AAB
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
1130 AM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

.UPDATE...
MADE SOME MINOR TWEAKS MAINLY TO UPDATE POPS AND WX GRIDS.
INCREASED POPS SOUTHEAST BUT REMOVED THUNDER WORDING AS THERE IS
NO INSTABILITY TO SPEAK OF ACROSS CENTRAL GEORGIA. CANNOT RULE OUT
A BRIEF INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON BUT JUST NOT WORTH KEEPING IT IN
THE GRIDS. ALSO REDUCED SKY COVER NORTHWEST AND WILL HAVE TO WATCH
TEMPERATURES UP THERE IN CASE THEY START CREEPING UP ABOVE
FORECAST. UPDATED PRODUCTS ON THE WAY.

TDP

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 625 AM EST TUE NOV 25 2014/

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
UPPER TROUGH FINALLY STARTING TO KICK EAST OUT OF THE CENTRAL U.S.
TODAY AS A FAIRLY STRONG SHORT WAVE BOTTOMS OUT OVER THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS AND BEGINS LIFTING INTO THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. TROUGH/SHORT
WAVE FAR ENOUGH SOUTH THAT THE MAIN SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS OVER THE
GULF OF MEXICO AND LIFTS ACROSS THE NORTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA
TONIGHT...RAPIDLY INTENSIFYING AND LIFTING NORTHEAST AS IT MOVES
ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN COASTAL REGION. THIS WILL SPREAD
PRECIPITATION BACK NORTH INTO THE AREA LATER TODAY AND THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT...RAPIDLY MOVING OUT EARLY WEDNESDAY. INSTABILITY MARGINAL
TODAY INTO THE EVENING ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDER...BUT SHOULD NOT BE SUFFICIENT WITH A LACK OF STRONG SHEAR
FOR ANY SEVERE THREAT. LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY...AS THE
PRECIPITATION BEGINS SHIFTING EAST...THERE MAY SOME LIMITED CHANCE
OF A BRIEF WINTRY MIX IN THE NORTH GEORGIA MOUNTAINS...HOWEVER
SURFACE TEMPERATURES ABOVE FREEZING ALONG WITH WARM AND WET GROUND
CONDITIONS INDICATE THAT THE POTENTIAL FOR ANY ACCUMULATION IS
MINIMAL.

20

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
LONG TERM BEGINS WITH A CLIPPER SYSTEM MOVING RAPIDLY THROUGH THE
OH VALLEY. MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT WITH THIS SYSTEM IN SOME
FORM FOR PAST SEVERAL MODEL RUNS. QUESTION REMAINS HOW MUCH
MOISTURE WILL ACCOMPANY THIS SHORT WAVE INTO GA. LOOKS LIKE ONLY
THE EXTREME NORTH SHOULD BE AFFECTED. FOR NOW HAVE ONLY INCLUDED
SLIGHT CHANCE THURSDAY NIGHT FOR A RAIN/SNOW MIX FOR THE FAR NORTH
AND NO ACCUMULATION. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS FEATURE ON
LATER SHIFTS. OTHERWISE NORTHWEST FLOW BECOMING MORE ZONAL TOWARD
THE END OF THE PERIOD. HAVE KEPT THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM
DRY. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SINKS INTO THE TN/KY AREA ON MONDAY BUT
MODELS WANT TO KEEP THE MOISTURE NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA.

41

AVIATION...
06Z UPDATE...

GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST AREA AT
THIS TIME...WITH LOCAL MVFR OR LOWER CEILINGS/VISIBILITIES ACROSS
THE FAR SOUTHEASTERN PORTION OF THE AREA IN A PERSISTENT AREA OF
LIGHT TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE RAIN. THIS AREA OF RAIN WILL BEGIN
SHIFTING BACK NORTH BY 18Z...SPREADING INTO THE KCSG AND KMCN AREAS
BY 18Z AND INTO THE KAHN AND ATLANTA METRO AREA BY 02-06Z.
PREDOMINATELY MVFR CONDITIONS ALSO SPREAD NORTH LATER TODAY REACHING
KMCN/KCSG BY 00-02Z AND THE KAHN/ATLANTA AREAS BY 04-07Z. LOCAL IFR
OR LOWER CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE AFTER 06Z...MAINLY ACROSS CENTRAL
GEORGIA. WINDS WILL REMAIN NORTHWEST TO NORTH 6-10KT THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...06Z UPDATE...

HIGH.

20

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          59  40  52  35 /  50  90  60   5
ATLANTA         58  39  53  37 /  40  70  40   5
BLAIRSVILLE     57  35  50  32 /  30  80  50  20
CARTERSVILLE    57  37  52  34 /  30  70  30   5
COLUMBUS        59  40  56  38 /  60  80  30   0
GAINESVILLE     58  39  52  36 /  40  80  50   5
MACON           60  41  56  36 /  80  90  50   0
ROME            57  36  52  34 /  20  50  20  10
PEACHTREE CITY  58  37  54  34 /  50  80  40   0
VIDALIA         63  45  55  39 / 100  90  60   5

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$



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