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Area Forecast Discussion

282
FXUS62 KFFC 270235
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
1035 PM EDT WED AUG 26 2015

.UPDATE...
ADJUSTED OVERNIGHT TEMP/DWPT TRENDS BASED ON RECENT OBS OTHERWISE
NO WHOLESALE CHANGES MADE TO FORECAST. DEWPOINTS TRENDING HIGHER
IN EASTERN PORTIONS SO WILL NEED TO MONITOR POTENTIAL FOR SOME
PATCHY RADIATIONAL FOG BUT NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN
FCST FOR OVERNIGHT SO FAR. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

BAKER

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 743 PM EDT WED AUG 26 2015/

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN STATES DOMINATING THROUGH THURSDAY
WITH DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. FLOW MODIFYING BY THURSDAY NIGHT AS
THE UPPER TROUGH WEAKENS BUT LEAVES WEAK LOW PRESSURE TO THE WEST.
AT THE SURFACE...EASTERLY FLOW SHOULD DOMINATE AS THE SURFACE HIGH
BECOMES CENTERED OVER THE NORTHEAST AND A SURFACE WAVE LINGERS IN
THE VICINITY OF THE NORTHERN GULF. ALL THIS TO SAY THAT DRY AIR
SHOULD PERSIST INTO THURSDAY FOR MUCH OF THE AREA...BUT THERE WILL
BE A GRADUAL INCREASE IN ATLANTIC MOISTURE OVER THE EAST CENTRAL
PORTION TOMORROW INTO TOMORROW NIGHT. HAVE CONTINUED WITH A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR THAT AREA TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. ANOTHER COOL
NIGHT TONIGHT BUT TEMPERATURES MODIFYING AFTER THAT WITH
INCREASING EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW.

41

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
QUITE AN ACTIVE LONG TERM IN STORE. FOR FRI...SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL
FEATURE A ROBUST SHORTWAVE ACROSS THE MIDWEST ROUNDING A BROAD MID-
LVL RIDGE CENTERED ACROSS THE SW CONUS/W MEXICO...WHILE A LONGWAVE
TROUGH OVER THE E US RELAXES AND A WEAK CLOSED LOW DEVELOPS
ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES/GOM. AT THE SFC...SEASONABLY STRONG
HIGH WILL BE LOCATED ACROSS E GREAT LAKES...A FAVORABLE SETUP FOR
DAMMING ALONG THE APPALACHIANS. THE COMBINATION OF SW FLOW ALOFT
FROM CLOSED LOW AND ESE FLOW AT THE SFC BECKONS FOR THE RETURN OF
ATLANTIC MOISTURE TO THE CWA. HAVE THEREFORE REINTRODUCED
ISOLATED...MAINLY DIURNALLY DRIVEN...SHOWERS/STORMS INTO THE
FORECAST DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS.

PRECIP CHANCES WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS SEVERAL
SHORTWAVES EJECT FROM GOM CLOSED LOW. SAT LOOKS PARTICULARLY WET AS
305K AND 310K SURFACES REVEAL DECENT ISENTROPIC ASCENT ACROSS THE
ENTIRE CWA...LIKELY TO ALSO BE ENHANCED BY DCVA AS FIRST
SHORTWAVE TRAVERSES THE REGION FROM SOUTH TO NORTH. DESPITE THE
SFC WEDGE...SOME ELEVATED THUNDER LOOKS PROBABLE GIVEN MUCAPE
VALUES BETWEEN 1000-1500J/KG. WILL THEREFORE SHOW HIGHEST POPS ON
SAT. RAIN/STORM CHANCES CONTINUE SUN AS A SECOND WAVE TRAVERSES
THE AREA AND ATLANTIC MOISTURE CONTINUES TO INCREASE.

ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO TROPICAL STORM ERIKA EARLY NEXT WEEK.
FORECAST IS GUARANTEED TO CHANGE BUT MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT FOR
THIS FAR OUT. 12Z GFS/CMC HAVE COME MORE IN LINE WITH THE LAST FEW
RUNS OF THE ECMWF BRINGING ERIKA INTO/VERY NEAR SOUTH FL BY 12Z
MON. STILL TOO EARLY TO DISCUSS WHAT..IF ANY...THREATS THIS SYSTEM
WILL POSE TO GA. REFER TO THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER FOR
FURTHER DETAILS.

KOVACIK

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z UPDATE...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THRU PERIOD WITH SOME POSSIBLE SCT
COVERAGE NEAR 2-3 KFT IMPINGING UPON THE EAST IN 09-13Z
PERIOD...MAINLY FOR KAHN. OTHERWISE EXPECT CU FIELD IN 4-6 KFT FOR
THURSDAY. WINDS STAYING NE TO ENE GENERALLY LESS THAN 7 KTS
OVERNIGHT AND NEAR 9-12 KTS FOR THURSDAY.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...00Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM ON MORNING CIGS FOR KAHN.
HIGH ON ALL ELSE.

BAKER

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          66  87  69  86 /   0  10  10  10
ATLANTA         66  86  70  86 /   0   5   5  10
BLAIRSVILLE     59  81  62  81 /   5   5   5  10
CARTERSVILLE    61  86  67  87 /   0   5   5   5
COLUMBUS        65  90  71  89 /   0   5   5  10
GAINESVILLE     66  83  69  84 /   0   5   5  10
MACON           63  90  70  88 /   0  10  10  20
ROME            61  86  67  88 /   0   5   0   5
PEACHTREE CITY  63  87  68  87 /   0   5   5  10
VIDALIA         70  90  72  89 /   5  30  30  20

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...41/BAKER
LONG TERM....KOVACIK
AVIATION...BAKER



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