« Back
NWS Peachtree City, Ga » Text Product » FFC Area Forecast Discussion


Printer-friendly Version     Surrounding:  BMX  MRX  FFC  CAE  TAE  
Current Version              Previous Versions:   1  2  3  4  5  6  7  8  9  

Area Forecast Discussion

694
FXUS62 KFFC 261605
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
1105 AM EST THU FEB 26 2015

.UPDATE...
LOOKS LIKE THE WINTER WEATHER FOR THIS EVENT IS OVER SO WE WILL
ALLOW THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY AND WARNING TO EXPIRE AT 10 AM.
WE ARE ISSUING A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT ABOUT THE POSSIBILITY
OF SLICK ROAD CONDITIONS ACROSS NORTH GA TODAY AND BLACK ICE
TONIGHT. TEMPS ARE RISING AND EXPECTED TO GET INTO THE UPPER 30S
AND LOWER 40S ACROSS AREAS THAT RECEIVED WINTRY PRECIPITATION
WEDNESDAY. WITH THE SNOW MELTING YOU WILL HAVE SOME RUNOFF ACROSS
ROADWAYS THAT MAY REFREEZE TONIGHT AS TEMPS DIP BELOW FREEZING
ACROSS MOST OF OUR AREA. TEMPERATURES FRIDAY ARE EXPECTED TO GET
BACK UP INTO THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S ACROSS MOST OF NORTH GA.
THERE ARE A FEW ISOLATED LOCATIONS ACROSS THE EXTREME N GA
MOUNTAINS THAT WILL NOT GET ABOVE FREEZING UNTIL SATURDAY. WE
WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS SITUATION AS IT DEVELOPS AND UPDATE
AS NEEDED.

01

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 622 AM EST THU FEB 26 2015/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 406 AM EST THU FEB 26 2015/

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FOR THE NEAR TERM...STILL WORKING ON WRAPPING UP THE WINTER
WEATHER EVENT. PRELIMINARY SNOW ACCUMULATION MAP WILL BE ON THE
WEB SHORTLY BUT BASED ON WHAT WE ARE SEEING RIGHT NOW...WILL PLAN
TO DROP THE WARNING FOR AREAS THAT DID NOT SEE ANY ACCUMULATION
AND WILL SWITCH TO A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR LINGERING BLACK
ICE CONCERNS THIS MORNING...KEEPING THE TIMING THROUGH 15Z WHEN
TEMPS ARE PROGGED TO GO ABOVE FREEZING. TO THE NORTH...WILL KEEP
THE WINTER STORM WARNING IN PLACE THROUGH THE ORIGINAL 15Z TIME.
FROM THE PRELIMINARY ACCUMULATION MAP...THE SHARP SOUTHERN EDGE OF
THE SNOWFALL IS ABOUT 50 MILES OR SO NORTH OF WHAT WAS PREDICTED
YESTERDAY. METEOROLOGICALLY SPEAKING...NOT BAD AT ALL BUT OF
COURSE IT JUST HAPPENS TO BE RIGHT ACROSS METRO ATLANTA. WOULD
LIKE TO REITERATE WHAT WE EMPHASIZED YESTERDAY THAT IT IS
IMPOSSIBLE TO PREDICT THE MESOSCALE NATURE OF EVENTS LIKE THIS
WITH 100 PERCENT ACCURACY.

ALL PRECIP PRETTY MUCH OUT OF THE AREA BUT OF COURSE THERE MAY BE
LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES IN THE NORTHEAST GEORGIA MOUNTAINS THAT ARE
TOO SHALLOW FOR RADAR TO SEE...SO HAVE KEPT LINGERING POPS THERE FOR
ANOTHER FEW HOURS. VERY LITTLE IF ANY ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION
EXPECTED.

SO SPEAKING OF TEMPERATURES GOING ABOVE FREEZING...WE DEFINITELY
HAVE POTENTIAL FOR A SIGNIFICANT TEMPERATURE BUST TODAY DUE TO
THE SNOWPACK. SYNOPTIC GUIDANCE AND CLIMATOLOGY TELLS US THAT IN
THE ABSENCE OF THE COOLING EFFECT OF SNOW...TEMPS SHOULD WARM
NICELY TODAY...BUT REALITY IS THAT WIDESPREAD 6-8 INCHES OF SNOW
ACROSS EXTREME NORTH GEORGIA WILL BE AN IMPACT. TRIED TO TAKE THIS
INTO ACCOUNT BUT CONFIDENCE IN HIGHS NORTH OF ATLANTA IS
PARTICULARLY LOW. IF SNOWPACK DOES NOT MELT...LOWS TONIGHT COULD
ALSO BE QUITE A BIT COLDER THAN PREDICTED...WHICH RIGHT NOW IS
SOMEWHERE IN THE LOW TO MID 20S.

FLOW ALOFT TRANSITIONS TO SOUTHWEST THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY WITH
DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED...BUT CONTINUED BELOW-NORMAL FOR HIGHS.
CHANGES COMING FOR THE EXTENDED THOUGH.

TDP

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... CLASSICAL DAMMING
PATTERN SETS UP FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AS SURFACE HIGH ACROSS
THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY CROSSES THE APPALACHIANS AND RIDGES DOWN THE
EASTERN SEABOARD. THIS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES AGAIN ON THE COOL SIDE
SATURDAY. MEANWHILE A SHORTWAVE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS OVERSPREADS
MOISTURE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. MIGHT BE A
BIT OF AN ISSUE WITH TIMING FOR SATURDAY NIGHT LOWS VS. INCOMING
PRECIP BUT FOR NOW LOOKS LIKE PRECIP REMAINS IN SOUTHWEST ZONES
WHERE TEMPS ARE TOO WARM FOR WINTRY PRECIP. RAIN OVERSPREADS THE
AREA SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AND WITH SOME QPF TOTALS REALLY ADDING UP.
GFS AND ECMWF ARE REALLY IN REMARKABLE AGREEMENT ON THE OVERALL
SYNOPTIC PATTERN. VERY TRANSITORY SYSTEM AS COLD FRONT ERODES THE
CAD BUT ANOTHER DAMMING EVENT RIGHT ON ITS HEELS TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY. AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH...SOME LOW- END SBCAPE
VALUES START CREEPING ACROSS THE AREA SO HAVE THUNDER IN THE GRIDS
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. KIND OF A WET AND MESSY EXTENDED.

TDP

AVIATION...
12Z UPDATE...
IFR TO MVFR CIGS AT TAF TIME THIS MORNING WITH ALL PRECIPITATION
MOVED OUT. SHOULD SEE SLOW IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR BY AROUND 17Z IF
NOT EARLIER. CURRENT TIMING HAS CIGS LIFTING TO VFR BETWEEN 02-04Z
DEPENDING ON LOCATION. WINDS SHOULD BE NNW TO NW THROUGH THE
PERIOD GENERALLY 5-10KT.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...12Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM ON TIMING OF LIFTING CIGS.
HIGH ON ALL OTHER ELEMENTS.

TDP

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          44  31  48  30 /   5   5   5   5
ATLANTA         43  29  43  29 /   5   5   5   5
BLAIRSVILLE     38  24  37  21 /  10   5   5   5
CARTERSVILLE    41  25  40  24 /   5   5   5   5
COLUMBUS        49  33  54  34 /   0   0   5   5
GAINESVILLE     41  27  43  28 /   5   5   5   5
MACON           49  31  55  33 /   5   5   5   5
ROME            41  24  40  24 /   5   0   5   5
PEACHTREE CITY  45  28  46  28 /   0   5   5   5
VIDALIA         50  38  57  37 /  10   5   5   5

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: BARTOW...CATOOSA...CHATTOOGA...CHEROKEE...
DADE...DAWSON...FANNIN...FLOYD...GILMER...GORDON...LUMPKIN...
MURRAY...PICKENS...POLK...TOWNS...UNION...WALKER...WHITE...
WHITFIELD.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: BANKS...BARROW...CARROLL...CLARKE...COBB...
DEKALB...DOUGLAS...FORSYTH...GWINNETT...HALL...HARALSON...
JACKSON...MADISON...NORTH FULTON...OCONEE...OGLETHORPE...
PAULDING...SOUTH FULTON...WALTON.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...01
LONG TERM....BDL
AVIATION...01



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.