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Area Forecast Discussion

711
FXUS62 KFFC 060749
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
349 AM EDT MON JUL 6 2015

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... CURRENT RADAR LOOP SHOWS
A FEW SHOWERS STILL HANGING AROUND OVER NE AL MOVING NE INTO NW GA.
THEY APPEAR TO BE WEAKENING AND SHOULD NOT CAUSE ANY ISSUES AS THEY
MOVE INTO THE STATE. FOR THE SHORT TERM WE APPEAR TO BE MOVING INTO A
BIT OF A DRIER PATTERN AS A DRIER AIRMASS BEGINS TO MOVE INTO THE
REGION FROM THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY TODAY. WE SHOULD
STILL SEE SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY BUT THEY
SHOULD JUST BE GENERAL THUNDERSTORMS WITH NOTHING SEVERE EXPECTED.
THIS DRIER AIRMASS PUSHES ALL THE WAY INTO CENTRAL GA BY TUES
MORNING BUT MORE MOISTURE MOVES IN RIGHT BACK INTO NW G BEHIND THIS
DRY AIR BY TUES AFTERNOON. THE MODELS ARE SHOWING THE DEEPER
MOISTURE STAYING NORTH OF THE CWA SO NOT EXPECTING ANYTHING MAJOR
THROUGH THE SHORT TERM JUST CONTINUED AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS...A TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN. TEMPS SHOULD BE
NEAR SEASONAL NORMS WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S AND 90S...LOWS IN THE 60S
AND 70S.

01


.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...

LONG TERM PERIOD BEGINS WITH MID AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING
OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES INCLUDING THE LOCAL AREA ALLOWING FOR
SOMEWHAT DRIER CONDITIONS. STILL PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
TRAPPED UNDER THIS RIDGE SO WOULD STILL EXPECT LOW END SCATTERED
POPS FOR MUCH OF THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY. PRETTY MUCH THIS SAME
PATTERN CONTINUES FOR THU AND FRI AS RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD IN
BUT NO REAL CHANGE IN THE MOISTURE PROFILE ALL POINTS TO AT OR
BELOW CLIMO POPS THROUGH WEEKS END.

BY THE WEEKEND...UPPER RIDGE BUILDS WESTWARD AND STRENGTHENS.
WOULD IMAGINE MODELS ARE BEHIND THE CURVE ON AVAILABLE MOISTURE
AND SEEM TOO KEEN ON GENERATING CONVECTION THROUGH SUNDAY. WITH
SUBSEQUENT RUNS...IF RIDGE IN FACT IS AS STRONG AS
ADVERTISED...RAIN CHANCES WILL LIKELY COME DOWN IN THE MODELS AND
WILL GO AHEAD AND INDICATE THIS IN NEW GRID SET.

LIKEWISE...MODELS LIKELY TOO COOL BY THE END OF THE PERIOD LEANING
TOO HEAVILY ON CLIMO AND WILL GO HIGHER THAN GUIDANCE FOR MAX
TEMPS WITH 595DM RIDGE BUILDING IN.

DEESE


&&

.AVIATION...
06Z UPDATE... A FEW SHOWERS LINGERING ACROSS THE AREA BUT SHOULD NOT
AFFECT THE TAF SITES. IFR CEILINGS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE ATL
AREA TAF SITES BETWEEN 08Z-10Z THEN LIFT AN SCT OUT THROUGH 18Z.
ALSO EXPECTING SOME FOG THIS MORNING BUT IT SHOULD BE MAINLY PATCHY
AND SHORT LIVED. WITH DRIER AIR MOVING IN THIS AFTERNOON STILL
EXPECTING SOME SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA BUT NOT SURE JUST HOW MUCH THE TAF
SITES WILL BE AFFECTED. HAVE A PROB30 IN THE TAFS BUT WILL NEED TO
MAKE A DECISION TO TAKE IT OUT OR UPGRADE TO A TEMPO ON THE 12Z TAF
SET. WINDS EXPECTED TO STAY W TO SW IN THE 5-10KT RANGE.


//ATL CONFIDENCE...
06Z UPDATE... MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ON CEILINGS THIS MORNING BUT HIGH ON
ALL OTHER ELEMENTS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          89  70  92  72 /  30  20  30  20
ATLANTA         86  72  89  73 /  40  20  30  20
BLAIRSVILLE     83  64  85  65 /  30  20  40  20
CARTERSVILLE    87  69  89  70 /  40  20  30  20
COLUMBUS        88  72  91  73 /  40  20  30  20
GAINESVILLE     86  70  88  72 /  30  20  30  20
MACON           90  71  93  72 /  40  20  40  20
ROME            87  69  90  70 /  40  20  30  20
PEACHTREE CITY  87  69  90  71 /  40  20  30  20
VIDALIA         90  72  94  73 /  50  30  40  20

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...01
LONG TERM....DEESE
AVIATION...01



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