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Area Forecast Discussion

145
FXUS62 KFFC 240540
AFDFFC

Area Forecast Discussion...Updated for Aviation
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
135 AM EDT FRI JUN 24 2016

.UPDATE...

Concern for the short term is the approaching MCS which is moving
through portions of KY and TN. Forward momentum has definitely
slowed with some dissipation along the leading edge but CAPE
values remain sufficient all the way into North GA to sustain
convection into the first part of the overnight. In
addition...Corfidi vectors indicate continued movement toward the
area although short term hi res guidance indicates a possible
split in activity around GA. Based on radar trends though...will
increase pops slightly across the far northern tier. Remainder of
the grids are in fine shape and no changes are planned.

&&

Deese


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 804 PM EDT THU JUN 23 2016/

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 304 PM EDT THU JUN 23 2016/

SHORT TERM /Tonight through Friday Night/...

Overall, an upper ridge is dominating the forecast area through
the short term, but a deepening upper trough over the eastern U.S.
coast will push a cold front into the area from the northeast on
Friday.

An upper ridge centered over the southern states will continue to
produce hot and dry conditions over a large portion of the CWA
through the end of the week. Have continued with slight chance to
chance pops across far north Georgia tonight, and spread them
southward into northern metro Atlanta Friday as cold front pushes
into the state from the north/northeast as trough aloft deepens.
SPC has included much of north Georgia in a marginal risk for
Friday, with a slight risk area nosing into the northeast portion
of the state (but still outside of the FFC CWA). Given the better
dynamics and instability, anticipate the best coverage and
intensity of storms to be on Friday. Isolated strong to severe
storms are expected, with damaging winds the main concern.

Models are fairly consistent with showing the 850mb temperatures
warming through Friday and into the weekend. The ECMWF appears to
be the warmest and has 850 temperatures in the 20-22 degree C
range through Saturday. As a result, through the short term, have
increased the model blend by a degree or two to account for the
above average conditions. For now, even with the increased
temperatures, the Heat Advisory criteria of a heat index of 105
is approached but not met, and for now will not issue an Advisory
for Friday. That being said, into Saturday, temperatures and
dew points will produce heat index values meeting and/or
exceeding the criteria and an Advisory will likely be necessary.

31

LONG TERM /Saturday through Thursday/...
No major changes made to the extended forecast.

01

PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 350 AM EDT THU JUN 23 2016/

An upper level ridge will be firmly entrenched across the
southern states to start the Long Term but the center will be
drifting W with respect to GA. A weak cold front or surface trough
will be drifting into NE GA Friday night into Saturday. This will
help the potential for showers and thunderstorms Friday night
favoring far E Ga and even more so on Saturday with the heating of
the day. A warm airmass will continue with most high temperatures
in the 90s on Saturday except for the mountains. A few locations
around central Ga will approach 100. Heat indices are looking to
get to 103 to 107 degrees over a large portion of central Ga.

The rest of the long term will see increased chances for showers
and thunderstorms, tending to be diurnally driven with the
heating of the day and a overall moisture increase. A cold front
will approach or move into N GA late Tuesday and likely stall
across the area on Wednesday, continuing shower and thunderstorm
chances across the area with the highest pops favoring central GA.

Temperatures will strongly favor above normal this long term period.

BDL

AVIATION...
06Z UPDATE...
Continued overall VFR conditions anticipated for this TAF cycle. Current
convection over TN moving south...but uncertain if it will stay together
long enough to reach the taf sites. Will continue to watch this. For now
no convection indicated in the tafs. Expect scattered cumulus today but
also some mid/high clouds from convective complex. Winds remaining
southwest.


//ATL CONFIDENCE...06Z UPDATE...
High on all elements except medium on location and development of
convection.

41

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          73  98  74  97 /  20  20  20  40
Atlanta         75  95  77  95 /  20  20  20  40
Blairsville     70  90  68  90 /  50  30  20  40
Cartersville    72  94  71  94 /  20  30  20  40
Columbus        73  97  76  97 /   5  20  20  30
Gainesville     74  93  74  94 /  20  30  20  40
Macon           71  99  74  98 /   5  20  20  40
Rome            72  95  71  95 /  30  30  20  40
Peachtree City  69  95  71  96 /  10  20  20  40
Vidalia         73  98  75  99 /   5  20  20  40

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...41
LONG TERM....Kovacik
AVIATION...41



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