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Area Forecast Discussion

587
FXUS62 KFFC 271921
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
321 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO
THIS EVENING. A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY STRETCHES FROM THE CENTRAL
GREAT LAKES BACK THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS STATES. THE FRONT WILL
DROP SOUTH OVERNIGHT AND BEGIN APPROACHING THE CWFA BY SUNRISE
MONDAY.

MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT WITH PRODUCING CONVECTION ALONG THE
TN/GA BORDER OVERNIGHT. THIS SEEMS REASONABLE...AS ANY LEFT OVER
CONVECTION FROM LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING IS PROGGED TO DROP SOUTH
ACROSS TN. LATEST RUNS OF THE HRRR HAVE THE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MOVING INTO NORTHERN GA BETWEEN 06Z AND 08Z. THE
STORMS SHOULD WEAKEN AS THEY GET AWAY FROM THE BEST MID LEVEL
FORCING AND DYNAMICS.

ADDITIONAL STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY THE EARLY AFTERNOON
ALONG THE FRONT AND/OR ANY LEFTOVER OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM THE EARLY
MORNING CONVECTION. IF THE EARLY MORNING CONVECTION PRODUCES ENOUGH
BLOW OFF TO LIMIT HEATING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE
CWFA...THUNDERSTORM SEVERITY AND COVERAGE WILL BE LIMITED.
HOWEVER...IF GOOD HEATING IS REALIZED...THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE HIGHER. ANY SEVERE THUNDERSTORM THAT DEVELOPS
WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCING DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND LARGE
HAIL. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE.

MODELS HAVE ALSO BEEN CONSISTENT WITH MOVING THE DRY AIR IN BEHIND
THE FRONT RATHER QUICKLY. SO...RAPID CLEARING WILL BE POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE NORTHERN CWFA BY MID AFTERNOON. ONLY SOME LINGERING
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH DURING THE EARLY
EVENING...WITH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS EXPECTED DRY.

NLISTEMAA

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MAINLY ONLY TWEAKS TO THE LONG TERM BASED ON THE LATEST GUIDANCE.
WITH THE MUCH COOLER AIRMASS BEHIND THE NEXT COLD FRONT...SOME LOW
TEMPERATURE RECORDS WITH BE THREATENED WEDNESDAY MORNING AND POSSIBLY
AT CSG THURSDAY MORNING. TUESDAY MORNING LOWS WITH BE WITHIN 3-5
DEGREES OF THE RECORD LOWS FOR THAT DAY. LEANED HARD ON WPC HIGH/LOW
TEMPERATURES AND POPS FOR WEDNESDAY AND BEYOND.

BDL

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT AFFECTS THE STATE MONDAY WILL BE SOUTH OF
THE CWA BY 12Z TUE. THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE USHERS IN A AN UPPER LEVEL
DEEP LONG WAVE TROUGH WHICH REMAINS POSITIONED OVER THE AREA THROUGH
MUCH OF NEXT WEEK...KEEPING LOWER DEW POINTS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES
IN PLACE AT LEAST THROUGH WED/THU. MOISTURE BEGINS TO INCREASE AGAIN
BY THE END OF THE WORK WEEK ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTION OF OUR CWA. WILL
KEEP DIURNALLY DRIVEN SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE POPS IN ACROSS THE AREA
DAYS 6 AND 7. BEGINNING TUESDAY...SHOULD SEE BELOW AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S NORTH AND LOW 80S
ELSEWHERE...AND LOWS IN THE 60S. TEMPS WILL REBOUND BY THU/FRI WITH
NEAR NORMAL READINGS BY THEN.

01

&&

.CLIMATE...

RECORDS FOR 07-29

               MAX TEMPERATURE         MIN TEMPERATURE
  STATION      HIGH        LOW         HIGH        LOW
  -------  ----------  ----------  ----------  ----------
   KAHN     103 1952     69 1984     76 1993     60 1911
                                        1981
   KATL     103 1952     73 1984     77 1993     63 1977
                            1926        1986
                                        1896
   KCSG     101 1952     74 1984     78 2010     65 1994
   KMCN     104 1986     74 1984     78 1986     63 1897
                1952



RECORDS FOR 07-30

               MAX TEMPERATURE         MIN TEMPERATURE
  STATION      HIGH        LOW         HIGH        LOW
  -------  ----------  ----------  ----------  ----------
   KAHN     102 1999     69 1984     76 2010     60 1925
                1915
   KATL      98 1986     68 1984     78 1896     61 1936
                1980
   KCSG     102 2010     76 1984     79 2010     65 1957
                1986
   KMCN     103 1986     74 1984     76 2010     62 1920
                                        2008
                                        1958



RECORDS FOR 07-31

               MAX TEMPERATURE         MIN TEMPERATURE
  STATION      HIGH        LOW         HIGH        LOW
  -------  ----------  ----------  ----------  ----------
   KAHN     103 1999     71 1916     76 1931     59 1936
   KATL      99 1999     62 1936     78 1915     59 1936
                1986                    1896
                1980
   KCSG     104 1986     74 1997     78 2011     66 1997
                            1981        2010
   KMCN     105 1986     68 1936     77 1931     61 1936

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z UPDATE...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AT MOST OF THE TAF SITES. SOME
PATCHY MVFR FOG IS POSSIBLE AT KAHN RIGHT BEFORE SUNRISE. A COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA ON MONDAY. PRECIP COVERAGE IS
EXPECTED TO BE SPARSE FOR THE NORTHERN TERMINALS...WITH THE BEST
CHANCES FOR CSG AND MCN...AFTER 18Z MONDAY. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO
THE NW BEHIND THE BOUNDARY.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...18Z UPDATE...
HIGH CONFIDENCE ALL ELEMENTS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          76  91  65  86 /  20  30  10   0
ATLANTA         77  88  66  84 /  20  30  10   0
BLAIRSVILLE     68  79  58  78 /  40  30   5  10
CARTERSVILLE    74  87  63  84 /  30  30   5   0
COLUMBUS        77  92  68  88 /  10  60  20   0
GAINESVILLE     74  87  64  83 /  30  30  10   0
MACON           77  94  68  89 /  10  60  40   0
ROME            74  87  63  84 /  30  20   5   0
PEACHTREE CITY  75  89  63  85 /  20  30  10   0
VIDALIA         78  95  72  91 /  10  60  60   5

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...NLISTEMAA
LONG TERM....BDL
AVIATION...NLISTEMAA





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