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Area Forecast Discussion

774
FXUS62 KFFC 300538
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
138 AM EDT MON MAR 30 2015



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1102 PM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015/

UPDATE...
NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST THROUGH THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT
PERIOD. HIGH RES MODELS IN LINE WITH FRONT AND ASSOCIATED RAIN
SHIELD MOVING INTO NW GA AROUND 08Z AND INTO THE METRO BY 11Z.
RAIN ENDS IN ATL METRO AND POINTS NORTH BY 15Z AS AREA SHIFTS
SOUTH INTO MCN TO CSG AREA...AND BECOMES LESS UNIFORM. LOCAL WRF
SUGGESTS POSSIBLE THUNDER BY 18Z ACROSS SOUTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES
ALONG AND SOUTH OF A CSG TO MCN LINE AS SOME DAYTIME HEATING
OCCURS...BUT WOULD BE WIDELY SCATTERED. RAIN THREAT ENDS SOUTH BY
21Z.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 816 PM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015/


PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 326 PM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015/

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
CENTER OF SURFACE HIGH HAS MOVED TO THE ATLANTIC COAST. MOISTURE
WILL BE INCREASING THIS EVENING WITH WINDS GOING TO THE SOUTHWEST.
NOT EXPECTING ANY FREEZING TEMPERATURES TONIGHT...BUT HAVE KEPT THE
EASTERN HALF ON THE COOL SIDE SINCE DEWPOINTS MAY BE SLOWER TO COME
UP THERE. FRONTAL BOUNDARY DROPPING INTO THE TN VALLEY TONIGHT AND
RAIN SHOULD BEGIN IN THE NORTHWEST CORNER AROUND 06Z. MODELS SHOW
THIS BOUNDARY WEAKENING AS IT MOVES SOUTHWARD INTO THE CENTRAL ZONES
ON MONDAY AFTERNOON. WPC HAS AROUND ONE HALF INCH FOR THE NORTH
WITH LOWER AMOUNTS INTO CENTRAL. HAVE KEPT THE BEST POPS NEAR/ALONG
THE BOUNDARY. SOME LOW CAPE VALUES ARE SHOWN MAINLY CENTRAL AREAS
FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE FRONT AND HAVE ADDED ISOLATED THUNDER
FOR THE 18Z TO 00Z PERIOD FOR THAT AREA. RAIN SHOULD BE ENDING
ACROSS THE NORTH BY AFTERNOON WITH ALL POPS SOUTH OF THE FORECAST
AREA AFTER 00Z TUESDAY.

41

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MAINLY ONLY TWEAKS TO THE LONG TERM BASED ON THE LASTEST GUIDANCE.

BDL

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST STARTS OFF WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY JUST
SOUTH OF THE AREA AND A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDING IN. THIS
RIDGE IS VERY SHORT LIVED AND MOVES OFF THE CAROLINA/GEORGIA
COAST BY 12-18Z TUE. MODELS THEN SHOW A FEW WAVES MOVING EAST OUT
OF TX THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK BRINGING MORE PRECIP TO THE AREA
THROUGH THE END OF THE EXTENDED. THE FIRST ONE PUSHES INTO NW GA
TUE AFTERNOON WITH THE REST FOLLOWING THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK. THE GFS IS A BIT FASTER WITH THESE WAVES THAN THE
ECMWF...BUT THEY BOTH SHOW THE SAME GENERAL PATTERN. THEY BOTH
ALSO SHOW A BIT OF INSTABILITY WITH THE APPROACHING WAVES SO
THINKING ISOLATED THUNDER DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS TUE THROUGH
FRI. STILL NOT EXPECTING ANY SEVERE WEATHER AT THIS TIME AS THE
THUNDER THREAT IS STILL WEAK AT BEST THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
WILL KEEP AN EYE ON THIS THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED TO SEE THE MODELS CONTINUE TO EVOLVE AS THINGS GET
CLOSER. TEMPS EXPECTED TO BE NEAR SEASONAL NORMS IN THE EXTENDED.

01

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z UPDATE...
FROPA STILL ON TRACK FOR THE NORTHERN TERMINAL SITES THIS MORNING
INTO THE VERY EARLY AFTERNOON. MODELS ARE ALL PRETTY MUCH IN
AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING. IN THE LAST FEW HOURS...THUNDERSTORMS
HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG/AHEAD OF THE FRONT BACK OVER MS. SUSPECT THE
STRONG SHORTWAVE IS FORCING THE CONVECTION. SURFACE INSTABILITY
DOES WANE QUITE A BIT ACROSS GA...BUT WOULD NOT RULE OUT A RUMBLE
OF THUNDER OR TWO. HOWEVER...WILL CONTINUE TO WATCH TRENDS BEFORE
PUTTING THUNDER IN THE TAF. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NW BEHIND THE
FRONT BY MID AFTERNOON. SOME PATCHY IFR CIGS POSSIBLE RIGHT ALONG
AND JUST BEHIND THE FRONT THIS MORNING.



//ATL CONFIDENCE...06Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ON CIGS. HIGH CONFIDENCE REMAINING ELEMENTS.



&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          68  43  77  52 /  70   0  10  20
ATLANTA         67  46  74  56 /  70   0  30  30
BLAIRSVILLE     61  37  70  48 /  50   0  30  20
CARTERSVILLE    68  42  73  51 /  70   0  30  30
COLUMBUS        72  50  76  58 /  50  10  30  40
GAINESVILLE     65  43  72  52 /  70   0  20  20
MACON           70  46  75  55 /  40  10  20  20
ROME            68  41  74  49 /  50   0  30  30
PEACHTREE CITY  68  43  75  52 /  60   5  30  40
VIDALIA         72  50  78  58 /  40  10  20  20

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$



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