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Area Forecast Discussion

580
FXUS62 KFFC 311125 AAA
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
725 AM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.PREV DISCUSSION...

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
/ISSUED 341 AM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015/
A COLD FRONT IS STALLED ACROSS CENTRAL GEORGIA THIS MORNING AND
ALTHOUGH THE FRONT WILL WEAKEN THROUGH THE SHORT TERM AND WASH
OUT...THE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
ACROSS CENTRAL GEORGIA. OBSERVATIONS ALREADY SHOW THE DEW POINTS IN
THE LOW TO MID 60S ACROSS PARTS OF NORTH GEORGIA AND WHILE SOME OF
THIS DRIER AIR WILL FILTER FURTHER SOUTH...IT WONT QUITE MAKE IT
INTO CENTRAL GEORGIA TODAY. GIVEN CENTRAL GEORGIA WILL BE SOUTH OF
THE STALLED FRONT...WITH BETTER DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AND DEW POINTS
IN THE 70S THIS AFTERNOON...CONVECTION SHOULD BE CONFINED TO CENTRAL
GEORGIA. MUCAPE VALUES THIS AFTERNOON CLIMB AROUND 2000 J/KG SO
COULD SEE A FEW STRONG STORMS. SPC HAS THE CWA IN GENERAL THUNDER.

THE BOUNDARY SHIFTS EVER SO SLIGHTLY SOUTHWARD ON SATURDAY AND THE
DRIER AIR MOVES FURTHER INTO CENTRAL GEORGIA. THE BETTER POPS ARE
CONFINED TO THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE CWA SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

EVEN WITH THE FRONT MOVING THROUGH NORTH GEORGIA...TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE SHORT TERM ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN JUST ABOVE NORMAL.
WITH THESE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND HIGHER DEW POINTS IN
CENTRAL GEORGIA...A SMALL AREA ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST PART OF THE CWA
HAS THE POTENTIAL TO REACH HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA /105 DEGREE HEAT
INDICES/ FOR A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME. AT THIS POINT...THE AREA OF 105
VALUES IS SPOTTY AND ANY CONVECTION IN THE AREA WILL HELP TO KEEP
TEMPS BELOW THE FORECAST SO WILL NOT ISSUE A HEAT ADVISORY AT THIS
TIME.

11

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
/ISSUED 341 AM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015/
MODELS ARE SHOWING GOOD AGREEMENT ON A WEAK COLD FRONT STALLED
ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL GEORGIA SATURDAY NIGHT... SAGGING FURTHER
SOUTH AND INTO SOUTH GEORGIA ON SUNDAY...THEN INTO NORTH FLORIDA
ON MONDAY. THIS SHOULD LESSON THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK AS A DRIER AIR MASS SETTLES
OVER THE REGION. THE COMBINATION OF A MOIST SOUTHERLY SURFACE TO
MID LEVEL FLOW AND SUBTLE UPPER DISTURBANCES FROM THE WEST WILL
BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BACK TO THE FORECAST
AREA FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. MODEST INSTABILITY AND WEAK DEEP
LAYER WIND SHEAR CONTINUES TO SUGGEST ANY AFTERNOON/EVENING STORMS
SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SEVERE LIMITS.

BEHIND THE FRONT... A DRIER AIR MASS WILL HELP HOLD HEAT INDICES
BELOW THE 100 DEGREE MARK FOR MOST AREAS FOR SUNDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY. THEN AS GULF MOISTURE BEGINS TO CREEP NORTHWARD... NEAR
CRITICALLY HIGH HEAT INDICES ARE LIKELY TO RETURN TO MUCH OF THE
AREA BY MID WEEK.

39

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z UPDATE...
WIND DIRECTION WILL BE THE BIGGEST CHALLENGE FOR THE TAF PERIOD.
NNW WINDS AT ATL ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME NNE THIS MORNING AND THAT
SHOULD HAPPEN AROUND 12-13Z. BY THIS EVENING...ANOTHER WIND SHIFT
TO THE NNW SHOULD OCCUR. HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE ON THE WINDS DUE TO
THE TIMING OF THESE SHIFTS. ANY TSRA THAT DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON
SHOULD REMAIN ACROSS THE MCN TO CSG AREA.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...12Z UPDATE...
HIGH CONFIDENCE ON CIGS AND VSBYS. LOW CONFIDENCE ON WIND.

11

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          93  69  94  70 /  10   5  10  10
ATLANTA         90  72  92  71 /  20   5  10  10
BLAIRSVILLE     88  60  87  59 /   5   0   5  10
CARTERSVILLE    92  64  92  66 /   5   5   5  10
COLUMBUS        93  73  94  73 /  40  30  20  20
GAINESVILLE     89  70  91  70 /   5   5   5  10
MACON           94  72  93  71 /  40  30  20  20
ROME            92  63  93  67 /   5   0   5   5
PEACHTREE CITY  91  67  92  69 /  20  10  10  10
VIDALIA         93  75  93  74 /  50  40  30  30

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM....39
AVIATION...11



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