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Area Forecast Discussion

863
FXUS62 KFFC 181906
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
306 PM EDT THU SEP 18 2014



.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NORTHWEST FLOW WILL TRANSITION INTO WEAK ZONAL FLOW THROUGH THE
PERIOD.  A CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE IS MOVING TO THE EAST ACROSS THE
NORTHERN UNITED STATES TODAY.  AS THIS HIGH MOVES TO THE EAST...A
WEDGE WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA TOMORROW AND INTO SATURDAY.  ALL
OF THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A WEDGE DEVELOPING.  CLOUDS
WILL ACCOMPANY THE WEDGE TOMORROW AM AND ARE EXPECTED TO BREAK UP
TOMORROW AFTERNOON.

WITH THE WEDGE AND A SLUG OF MOISTURE MOVING INTO THE AREA...THERE
IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR RAIN AND EVEN THUNDER ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
CWA. HIRES MODELS AND MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT COVERAGE WILL BE
ISOLATED AND THAT THE CHANCE OF THUNDER WILL BE LOW.  ANOTHER CHANCE
OF RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS IS POSSIBLE SATURDAY ACROSS FAR
SOUTHEASTERN ZONES OF THE CWA.  NONE OF THESE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
BE STRONG AT THIS TIME.

AS FAR AS TEMPERATURES GO...USED CONSALL FOR THE SHORT TERM
TEMPERATURES AND TWEAKED THE HIGH TEMPS DOWN SLIGHTLY SATURDAY TO
ACCOUNT FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE WEDGE.

ARG


.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HAVE MADE ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FORECAST TO ACCOUNT FOR
LATEST MODEL TRENDS...PARTICULARLY WITH THE TEMPERATURES AND DEW
POINTS. OVERALL FORECAST TRENDS LOOK TO BE ON TRACK...AND
WHOLE-SCALE CHANGES WERE AVOIDED. THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
FOLLOWS...


/ISSUED AT 439 AM EDT THU SEP 18 2014/
THE EXTENDED FORECAST STARTS OUT WITH A SLIGHTLY THE DRIER
AIRMASS OVER THE REGION AND A WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN
FROM THE NE. THIS WEDGE WILL BRING ATLANTIC MOISTURE BACK IN ACROSS
THE AREA WITH MAINLY OVERCAST SKIES FOR THE WEEKEND. THERE MAY BE A
FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL GA BUT NOT MUCH
EXPECTED. THIS WEDGE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT BEFORE ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES IN FROM
THE NW MONDAY MORNING. AS THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES INTO NORTH
GA THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WEAKENS A BIT WITH THE MAJORITY OF THE
MOISTURE STAYING NORTH AND EAST OF THE STATE. HAVE DECIDED TO
CONTINUE WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. ONCE THIS NEXT FRONT EXITS THE STATE
MONDAY NIGHT...ANOTHER DRY AIRMASS AND HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILD
IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES STATES THROUGH DAY 7.

01

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z UPDATE...
MAIN CONCERN THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD IS THE CHANCE OF IFR
CEILINGS TOMORROW MORNING. WEDGE SHOULD START TO BUILD INTO THE
AREA AND BRING WITH IT LOW CEILINGS. THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THAT
THE LOW CLOUDS COULD LAST LONGER THAN FORECAST...ESPECIALLY IF THE
WEDGE IS STRONGER THAN FORECAST. WINDS SHOULD SHIFT TO THE EAST
AND STAY THAT WAY THROUGH THE PERIOD.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...18Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ON CEILINGS AND DURATION OF CEILINGS...HIGH ON
ALL OTHER ELEMENTS.

ARG

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          83  63  81  62 /  20  20  20  20
ATLANTA         84  65  83  64 /  10  10  20  10
BLAIRSVILLE     78  56  77  58 /  10  10  20  20
CARTERSVILLE    84  61  84  63 /  10  10  20  10
COLUMBUS        89  67  89  66 /  10  10  20  10
GAINESVILLE     81  62  80  62 /  20  10  20  20
MACON           84  65  86  64 /  20  20  20  20
ROME            85  60  86  62 /  10  10  20  10
PEACHTREE CITY  84  61  84  62 /  10  10  20  10
VIDALIA         84  68  85  67 /  20  20  30  20

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ARG
LONG TERM....31
AVIATION...ARG





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