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Area Forecast Discussion

506
FXUS62 KFFC 270521
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
121 AM EDT MON APR 27 2015



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1011 PM EDT SUN APR 26 2015/

UPDATE...

STILL SOME RESIDUAL CAPE ACROSS THE CENTRAL ZONES BUT ONLY ON THE
ORDER OF 200 TO 600 J/KG. SOME LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER EAST
CENTRAL GA SO MAY NEED TO MAINTAIN A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR POPS FOR
THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. OTHERWISE...FORECAST ON TRACK AND NO
CHANGES PLANNED.

DEESE

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 823 PM EDT SUN APR 26 2015/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 344 PM EDT SUN APR 26 2015/

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
MORE STABLE AIR WORKING ITS WAY INTO GA THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO
THE EVENING AS A AS A SURFACE BOUNDARY DRIFTS SOUTHWARD. HAVE
REMOVED ALL POPS STARTING AT 00Z AND HAVE KEPT THE SHORT TERM DRY
WITH WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT DOMINATING. EXPECT A GRADUAL
LOWERING OF DEW POINTS THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS BECOMING EASTERLY
BY MONDAY NIGHT AND HAVE LOWERED THE OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES A BIT
ALONG THE EASTERN COUNTIES. THE ONLY EXCEPTION TO THE DRY FORECAST
IS A RETURN FLOW OF MOISTURE INTO THE EXTREME WEST CENTRAL AREA
LATE MONDAY NIGHT AS A SHORT WAVE TRACKS ALONG THE GULF COAST.
HAVE INTRODUCED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THAT AREA AFTER 06Z
TUESDAY.

41

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NO LARGE WHOLESALE CHANGES MADE TO FORECAST BUT DID REFRESH BASED
ON LATEST OVERALL BLEND. MAINLY UPPED TO LIKELY POPS AREA- WIDE
FOR LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WITH LOW PUSHING
NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS AREA. MODELS STILL LIMITING INSTABILITY WITH
THIS SYSTEM SO HAVE KEPT ANY CHANCE OF THUNDER TO PARTS OF CENTRAL
GA. QPF LOOKS TO BE AROUND 0.75 TO 1 INCH. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
FOLLOWS...

BAKER

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 322 AM EDT SUN APR 26 2015/

LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ONLY ONE WEATHER SYSTEM TO FOCUS ON IN THE EXTENDED. A SHORTWAVE
SLIDES ACROSS THE TN VALLEY MID WEEK WHILE THE SFC LOW TRACKS ALONG
THE GULF STATES AND ACROSS SOUTHERN GEORGIA. ALTHOUGH THIS WILL
BRING BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BACK TO THE CWA TUESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY...INSTABILITY WITH THE SYSTEM IS LIMITED /GENERALLY
LESS THAN 500 J/KG OF MUCAPE/ WHICH WILL RESULT IN MOSTLY SHOWERS
FOR NORTH GEORGIA AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE SHOWERS ACROSS
CENTRAL GEORGIA WHERE THIS HIGHER INSTABILITY IS LOCATED. STILL SOME
MINOR DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF IN TERMS OF FEATURES AND
TIMING...BUT BOTH ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT THE BEST CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE TUESDAY NIGHT TO WEDNESDAY TIME FRAME.
AFTER THIS SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH...HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES AT THE SFC
AND KEEPS THE CWA DRY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

11


&&

.AVIATION...
06Z UPDATE...
OBS ARE SHOWING SOME PATCHY MVFR CIGS AROUND THE AIRFIELD...BUT
THE DECK REMAINS MORE SCT THAN BKN. DIDN`T MAKE MANY CHANGES TO
THE ONGOING TAF AS THE TRENDS STILL LOOK GOOD. WINDS WILL REMAIN
NW AROUND 10KT THROUGH THE PERIOD.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...06Z UPDATE...
HIGH CONFIDENCE ALL ELEMENTS.



&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          73  47  67  50 /   5   5  20  70
ATLANTA         72  52  66  52 /   0   5  30  70
BLAIRSVILLE     66  43  64  47 /   0   0  20  70
CARTERSVILLE    70  48  67  50 /   0   5  30  70
COLUMBUS        77  57  69  54 /   0  20  40  70
GAINESVILLE     71  47  65  50 /   0   5  20  70
MACON           75  55  68  52 /   0  10  30  70
ROME            70  48  68  51 /   0   5  30  70
PEACHTREE CITY  74  51  67  51 /   0   5  30  70
VIDALIA         76  58  70  56 /   5  10  30  60

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$



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