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Area Forecast Discussion

443
FXUS62 KFFC 301821
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
221 PM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1111 AM EDT THU OCT 30 2014/

.UPDATE...
FORECAST LOOKS TO BE ON TRACK WITH DRY/COOL AIRMASS ADVECTING INTO THE
CWA BEFORE THE NEXT DISTURBANCE LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. SOME
SUB FREEZING TEMPS ARE A GOOD BET IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF
NORTHEAST GA SATURDAY MORNING AND WILL BE LOOKING INTO FREEZE
WATCH POTENTIAL WITH AFTERNOON FORECAST UPDATE. AS SOME LIGHT
SNOW IN THE FAR NORTHEAST IS STILL POSSIBLE...CANNOT RULE OUT SOME
LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS MAINLY UNDER HALF AN INCH FOR FRIDAY NIGHT/SAT
MORNING. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

BAKER

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 749 AM EDT THU OCT 30 2014/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 432 AM EDT THU OCT 30 2014/

.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

A DRY...COLD AIR MASS HAS MOVED INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT...NOW EXTENDING ALONG THE GEORGIA COASTLINE AND INTO NORTHERN
FLORIDA. SHORT TERM LARGELY REMAINS UNEVENTFUL...WITH DEEP LAYER
COLD AIR ADVECTION RESULTING IN EARLY MORNING TEMPERATURES 10-15
DEGREES COOLER THAN YESTERDAY. THIS BELOW NORMAL TREND CONTINUES
FRIDAY MORNING AHEAD OF ANOTHER STRONG SHORTWAVE THAT WILL PUSH
THROUGH THE TENNESSEE VALLEY FRIDAY. EXPECT THIS REINFORCING FRONT
TO PRODUCE SOME OF THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES THE AREA HAS SEEN SO FAR
THIS SEASON INTO THE WEEKEND.

MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE SOME MOISTURE MOVING INTO FAR NORTH
GEORGIA AS THIS FRONT APPROACHES...AND SO HAVE CONTINUED WITH
MENTION OF SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE RAIN ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. THE COMBINATION OF THIS MOISTURE AND COLD TEMPERATURES
COULD RESULT IN POTENTIAL WINTER PRECIP IN THE FAR NORTH GEORGIA
MOUNTAINS EARLY SATURDAY MORNING /SEE EXTENDED/.

THE TIMING OF THIS FRONT THROUGH THE AREA MEANS THAT HALLOWEEN TRICK
OR TREATING WILL BE WINDY AND CHILLY...PARTICULARLY ACROSS NORTH
GEORGIA. BY 6PM FRIDAY...EXPECT THE TEMPERATURE TO FEEL LIKE TO BE
IN THE UPPER 50S TO RIGHT AROUND 60...OR COLDER.

31

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

STRONG COLD CORE SHORT WAVE EXPECTED TO BE CROSSING THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. LIGHT PRECIPITATION
AMOUNTS EXPECTED MAINLY FRIDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY ACROSS
NORTH GEORGIA...NORTH OF ATLANTA TO ATHENS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS GO
BELOW FREEZING LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND THIS WILL SUPPORT A MIX ON
RAIN/SNOW DURING THAT TIME FOR THE NORTHEAST. ACCUMULATION STILL
EXPECTED TO BE LESS THAN ONE HALF INCH. SATURDAY SHOULD BE WINDY
WITH GOOD COLD AIR ADVECTION. THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS BACK ACROSS
THE STATE THROUGH THE FIRST OF THE WEEK. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS SHOULD BE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY TIME FRAME AS THE
INCREASE IN SOUTHERLY FLOW BRINGS MOISTURE BACK INTO THE
SOUTHEAST.

41

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z UPDATE...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH PERIOD. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WITH
SOME MID LEVEL SCT COVERAGE COMING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST FRIDAY IN
THE 8-12 KFT RANGE. INITIAL WINDS WAIVERING SOME BETWEEN NE AND NW
BUT SHOULD SWING TO NW BY LATER THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH REST OF
PERIOD. MAGNITUDES GENERALLY 7 KTS OR LESS THIS AFTERNOON BECOMING
LIGHT TO CALM OVERNIGHT THEN ON THE INCREASE FRIDAY NEAR 10 KTS
GUSTING 18 KTS BY AFTERNOON.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...18Z UPDATE...
HIGH ON ALL ELEMENTS.

BAKER

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          68  42  67  38 /   0   0   5  10
ATLANTA         67  45  65  37 /   0   0   5  10
BLAIRSVILLE     62  36  58  33 /   0   0  30  30
CARTERSVILLE    66  40  65  35 /   0   0  10  10
COLUMBUS        71  45  71  40 /   0   0   0   0
GAINESVILLE     65  44  62  37 /   0   0  10  20
MACON           72  42  70  38 /   0   0   0   0
ROME            67  40  65  35 /   0   0  20  10
PEACHTREE CITY  68  40  69  36 /   0   0   5   5
VIDALIA         73  48  71  44 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...31/BAKER
LONG TERM...41
AVIATION...BAKER





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