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Area Forecast Discussion

199
FXUS62 KFFC 050547
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
1247 AM EST FRI FEB 5 2016

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED /

EVENING UPDATE...
GUSTY NW WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF TONIGHT... BUT ALL
GUIDANCES ARE HOLDING WIND GUSTS UNDER ADVISORY CRITERIA SO FAR.
WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR CLOSELY FOR THIS POTENTIAL THROUGH THE
EVENING. OTHERWISE... THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK SO NO MAJOR CHANGES
ARE PLANNED AT THIS TIME. /39

PREVIOUS DISCUSSIONS.../ISSUED AT 423 PM EST THU FEB 4 2016/

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
RAIN CONTINUED TO PUSH EASTWARD OUT OF EAST CENTRAL GA AND SHOULD BE
OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. OTHERWISE A DRY
AND COOLER FORECAST FOR THE SHORT TERM. UPPER TROUGH CROSSING THE
STATE AFTER 00Z TONIGHT BRINGING THE UPPER FLOW TO NORTHWEST.
THIS...COMBINED WITH LOW PRESSURE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST SHOULD
KEEP THE WINDS GUSTY FOR MUCH OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT. A FEW GUSTS TO
NEAR 30KT ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. BLEND OF GUIDANCE
TEMPERATURES LOOKS OKAY AND HAVE STAYED CLOSE.

41

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
EXTENDED MODELS STILL INDICATING A SERIES OF STRONG SHORTWAVES AND
THE POTENTIAL FOR WINTRY PRECIPITATION NEXT WEEK. POPS HAVE BEEN
ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY TO REFLECT LATEST MODEL SOLUTIONS WITH A LITTLE
LESS AVAILABLE MOISTURE ACROSS THE STATE. OTHERWISE...NO
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE FORECAST AND THE PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

31

/ISSUED AT 310 AM EST THU FEB 4 2016/

LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE DOMINATED BY THE ARRIVAL OF A SERIES OF
STRONG SHORTWAVES WITH CLOSED UPPER LOWS ASSOCIATED BRINGING
WINTER BACK TO NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA. THE FIRST OF THESE MOVES
THROUGH ON SATURDAY WITHOUT MUCH FANFARE EVEN THOUGH LOW PRESSURE
IS ABLE TO FORM OFF THE GA COAST. FEEL SUPERBLEND IS TOO
AGGRESSIVE PRODUCING PRECIP OVER THE SE ZONES AND HAVE CURBED
THESE VALUES SIGNIFICANTLY. THE SECOND MUCH STRONGER AND LARGER
SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH SUNDAY INTO MONDAY CREATING A FULL
LATITUDE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM THE MIDWEST TO THE NORTHEAST AND
SOUTH ALL THE WAY INTO MOST GEORGIA BEFORE ALL OF SAID AND DONE.

AFTER DISCUSSION WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES...DO NOT FEEL MODELS
FULLY CAPTURE THE COLD AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROUGH AND HAVE
TRENDED TEMPS...ESPECIALLY MAX TEMPS...DOWNWARD MON THROUGH WED.
INITIAL PUSH OF TROUGH WILL BRING LOW END CHANCES FOR PRECIP TO
THE FAR NORTHERN ZONES. ALREADY BY THIS TIME...TEMPERATURE
PROFILES FAVOR A MIX OF LIGHT SNOW AND RAIN. MOISTURE IS SUCH A
GLANCING BLOW ON THIS ONE THAT QPF WILL BE VERY LOW WITH THIS
FIRST WAVE.

ADDITIONAL ENERGY WILL BRING HIGHER POPS TO NORTH GEORGIA MON
NIGHT INTO TUE. NOT QUITE AS MUCH MOISTURE TO WORK WITH VERSUS
MODELS RUNS AT THIS TIME YESTERDAY BUT ENOUGH TO WARRANT HIGH END
CHANCES OVER THE FAR NORTHERN TIER. THICKNESSES ONCE AGAIN SUPPORT
MAINLY SHOW SHOWERS FOR THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND A MIX ELSEWHERE.
THE BEST MOISTURE SHIFTS NORTH AND EAST QUICKLY LEADING TO A POP
FREE FORECAST FROM LATE WED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG
TERM.

DEESE

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z UPDATE...

A VFR FORECAST WITH JUST WINDS TO BE CONCERNED WITH. PRETTY MUCH
AT THE HEIGHT OF THE WIND SURGE CURRENTLY WITH GUSTS TO 30 KTS AT
ATL. EXPECT WINDS TO LESSEN BY 10Z BUT STILL WITH GUSTS AND GUSTS
ABATING BY 15Z.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...06Z UPDATE...
HIGH ON ALL ELEMENTS.

DEESE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          51  29  51  30 /   0   0  10  10
ATLANTA         49  31  51  32 /   0   0  10  10
BLAIRSVILLE     44  25  47  28 /   0   0  10   5
CARTERSVILLE    48  27  50  29 /   0   0  10  10
COLUMBUS        53  31  53  33 /   0   0  10  10
GAINESVILLE     48  30  49  31 /   0   0  10  10
MACON           53  28  53  32 /   0   0  10  10
ROME            48  26  51  28 /   0   0  10   5
PEACHTREE CITY  50  26  51  29 /   0   0  10  10
VIDALIA         54  33  54  36 /   0   0  10  20

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DEESE
LONG TERM....20
AVIATION...DEESE



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