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Area Forecast Discussion

055
FXUS62 KFFC 272335
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
735 PM EDT WED MAY 27 2015



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 350 PM EDT WED MAY 27 2015/

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
WEAK RIDGING ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON KEEPING AFTERNOON
ACTIVITY ACROSS THE AREA MINIMAL. SHORT TERM MODELS CONTINUE TO
ADVERTISE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IMPACTING THE AREA TONIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY. WRF/NAM/HRRR AGREE UPON EVENING AND LATE NIGHT STORMS
MOVING INTO WESTERN GEORGIA...WITH GENERALLY SHOWERS LINGERING
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIODS...BUT MODELS ARE INCONSISTENT ON
TIMING. OVERALL CONSENSUS IS TO PUSH THE STORMS INTO NORTH GEORGIA
AND THE ATL METRO AREA GENERALLY 8PM-12AM. AS A RESULT...HAVE OPTED
TO HIGHLIGHT THAT TIME FRAME WITH THE HIGHEST POPS...BUT GIVEN THE
UNCERTAINTY AND THE LIMITED AVAILABLE INGREDIENTS /DIURNAL
HEATING...ETC/...HAVE LIMITED POPS TO GOOD CHANCE.

MODELS DO SHOW DIMINISHING ACTIVITY THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
PERIOD...THOUGH UNSETTLED THURSDAY IS EXPECTED AS WELL...WITH
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVING AN EARLIER START... PARTICULARLY
ACROSS NORTH GEORGIA. HAVE SPREAD GOOD CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE STATE
BY LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. HAVE SIGNIFICANTLY CUT BACK ON POPS
BY THURSDAY EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.

NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED...AND HAVE GENERALLY USED A
BLEND OF GUIDANCE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.

31

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NO CHANGES MADE TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST. A MOIST AIRMASS WILL
CONTINUE OVER THE AREA TO START THE EXTENDED WITH WEAKENING SW
FLOW ALOFT. PRECIP CHANCES ARE EXPECTED TO HAVE A MORE DIURNAL
TENDENCY WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES OVER N GA THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY WITH SOME DRIER AIR MOVING OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL GA.

THE TENDENCY TO FAVOR N GA WITH THE HIGHEST POPS CONTINUES SATURDAY
AS THE RIDGE ALOFT BUILDS SOME ON SATURDAY FAVORING CENTRAL GA.
SLIGHTLY INCREASED SW FLOW ALOFT ON SUNDAY WILL FAVOR ONCE AGAIN N GA
WITH THE HIGHEST POPS AND THIS IS WHERE THE BEST MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY
WILL BE...AS WILL BE THE CASE FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

INCREASED DEEPER MOISTURE MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL ALLOW FOR CHANCE TO
LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE AREA AS AN UPPER TROUGH DRIFTS TOWARD THE STATE.
THE EUROPEAN BRINGS THE TROUGH TO GA WHILE THE GFS HOLDS THE TROUGH
OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY.

TEMPERATURES RUNNING AROUND TO SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH
THE LONG TERM.

BDL/01

01


&&

.AVIATION...
00Z UPDATE...
HI-RES MODELS DO WEAKEN CONVECTION AS IT CROSSES THE AL/GA STATE
LINE. NOT CONFIDENT THAT MVFR CIGS WILL DEVELOP OVERNIGHT...IT
WILL DEPEND UPON RAIN FALLING AT THE TERMINAL SITES. MVFR CIGS
WILL DEVELOP BY MID MORNING TOMORROW...AS RAIN CHANCES IMPROVE.
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT OVERNIGHT...WITH SPEEDS AT 5KT OR LESS.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...00Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ALL ELEMENTS.



&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          66  85  65  86 /  30  40  30  40
ATLANTA         68  82  67  84 /  40  50  40  40
BLAIRSVILLE     61  78  63  78 /  40  50  40  50
CARTERSVILLE    65  81  65  84 /  40  50  40  50
COLUMBUS        68  84  68  87 /  40  50  20  30
GAINESVILLE     65  81  65  82 /  30  40  40  50
MACON           66  84  64  87 /  30  30  20  20
ROME            65  82  65  84 /  50  50  40  50
PEACHTREE CITY  65  81  65  85 /  40  50  30  30
VIDALIA         67  89  67  88 /  30  20  10   5

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...
AVIATION...



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