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Area Forecast Discussion

533
FXUS62 KFFC 250015
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
715 PM EST MON NOV 24 2014



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 224 PM EST MON NOV 24 2014/

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
WARM AIR IN THE 70S HAS SURGED INTO THE STATE IN ADVANCE OF A COLD
FRONT FROM NORTHWEST GA TO SOUTHEAST AL AT THIS TIME. SCATTERED
SHOWERS LINGERED OVER A PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA GENERALLY EAST
OF CORDELE THROUGH PERRY TO WASHINGTON. THE SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH
THIS EVENING AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES INTO CENTRAL GA. HOWEVER...THE
NAM AND GFS MODELS REMAIN IN AGREEMENT IN MAINTAINING A MOISTURE
PLUME FROM THE GULF OVER NORTH FL THROUGH SOUTHEAST GA AND ALONG THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST THROUGH TUE NIGHT.

A DEEPENING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS ON
TUE WILL CAUSE A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO DEVELOP IN THE
NORTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO. AS THIS LOW MOVES NORTHEAST A COMBINATION
OF ATLANTIC AND GULF MOISTURE WILL SPREAD NORTHWEST ACROSS THE STATE
INCREASING THE RAIN CHANCES TO LIKELY OR CATEGORICAL TUE AND TUE
NIGHT. PWS IN THE 1-1.5 INCH RANGE WILL PREVAIL OVER GA WITH STORM
TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS AROUND A TENTH OF INCH NORTHWEST TO AROUND
ONE INCH SOUTHEAST BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. MIN AND MAX TEMPS DURING
THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS AND USED A BLEND
OF MET/MAV MOS GUIDANCE.

16

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HAVE MADE A FEW MINOR CHANGES TO THE LONG TERM. LOOKS LIKE SOME
LINGERING MOISTURE WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL HANG AROUND IN THE
MOUNTAINS. WITH A NORTHWEST UPSLOPE WIND ON THE RIDGES IN THE
MOUNTAINS...COULD SEE A FEW FLURRIES LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
EARLY THURSDAY. HAVE ALSO INCREASED WINDS ON THURSDAY AS CAA IS
STRONG. NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE...PREVIOUS LONG TERM
DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

17

LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
/ISSUED 337 AM EST MON NOV 24 2014/
SURFACE LOW MOVING ACROSS FLORIDA AND UP THE COAST OF THE
CAROLINAS TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL SPREAD SHOWERS
BACK TO THE NORTHWEST ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH
HIGHEST POPS OVER EASTERN SECTIONS. THERE REMAINS THE POSSIBILITY
OF SOME MIX OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS NORTHEAST GA TUESDAY NIGHT.
WILL CONTINUE TO WATCH FOR THIS...HOWEVER NOT LOOKING FOR ANY
ACCUMULATIONS. MODEL THICKNESS VALUES VARY SOME OVER THIS AREA
TUESDAY NIGHT BUT FOR NOW SEEMS AS THOUGH THE CRITICAL THICKNESS
VALUES STAY WEST OF THE AREA. SHOWERS ENDING FROM THE WEST
WEDNESDAY AS THE SURFACE LOW MOVES UP THE ATLANTIC COAST. UPPER
FLOW BECOMING MORE NORTHWEST ON WEDNESDAY BUT GRADUALLY
TRANSITIONS TO ZONAL BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. DRY THURSDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY...BUT A FRONT GETS PUSHED INTO THE TN VALLEY ON
SUNDAY AND THERE MAY BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE FAR
NORTH.

41

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z UPDATE...
FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVING SLOWLY EAST THROUGH THE STATE BRINGING
DRIER AIR INTO NW GA. THIS FRONT WILL BE SLOW TO EXIT THE STATE
AND WILL SEE RAIN MOVE BACK IN ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT.FOR NOW WILL SEE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT
WITH INCREASING CLOUDS AN SHOWERS ACROSS THE CSG AND MCN TAF SITES
TUESDAY AFTERNOON. RAIN WILL MOVE NORTHWARD TUESDAY NIGHT MOVING
INTO THE ATL AREA TAF SITES AFTER 00Z TUES. CEILINGS WILL LOWER
INTO THE MVFR RANGE AFTER 00S TUES AS WELL. NOT EXPECTING ANY
RESTRICTIONS TO VSBSY WINDS WILL STAY OUT OF THE WEST TO NORTHWEST
AT 10KT OR LESS.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...00Z UPDATE...
CONFIDENCE MEDIUM ON ALL ELEMENTS.

01

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          44  58  41  51 /  10  20  60  60
ATLANTA         43  58  40  51 /   5  20  60  30
BLAIRSVILLE     38  56  35  48 /  10  20  70  60
CARTERSVILLE    39  58  36  52 /   5  20  60  20
COLUMBUS        47  59  40  55 /  10  50  70  10
GAINESVILLE     43  60  41  50 /  10  20  60  50
MACON           49  58  40  54 /  30  50  70  40
ROME            37  57  34  53 /  10  20  50  10
PEACHTREE CITY  40  59  35  53 /   5  30  60  20
VIDALIA         55  57  46  53 /  70  70  90  60

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...01
LONG TERM....NLISTEMAA
AVIATION...01



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