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Area Forecast Discussion

600
FXUS62 KFFC 200740
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
340 AM EDT WED AUG 20 2014

.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LATEST SATELLITE IR IMAGERY SHOWS AN UPPER LOW SPINNING OVER THE
GREAT LAKES REGION WITH SHORT WAVE DISTURBANCE TRAVERSING THE OHIO
VALLEY AND SPARKING CONVECTION FROM KENTUCKY NORTHWARD. IN THE WAKE
OF THIS DISTURBANCE... SHORT TERM MODELS AGREE ON AN ACTIVE
NORTHWEST MID AND UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMING ESTABLISHED OVER THE
OHIO AND TN VALLEYS BY THIS AFTERNOON AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY REGION. THE RIDGING INFLUENCE WILL HELP
PUSH TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE LOWER TO MID 90S FOR MOST AREAS
TODAY... PRODUCING 2500+ J/KG OF SURFACE BASED CAPE DURING THE
AFTERNOON. THIS COUPLED WITH AN ACTIVE NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS TN AND
NORTH GA SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR STORMS TO DEVELOP ACROSS TN
DURING DAYTIME HEATING... AND THEN PROPAGATING SOUTHWARD INTO NORTH
AND POTENTIALLY CENTRAL GA ALONG OUTFLOWS. THE LOCAL ARW AND WRF
HIRES MODELS... ALONG WITH THE NAM12 ARE ALL SUGGESTING THIS
POTENTIAL LATER THIS AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH NOT EXPECTING WIDESPREAD
COVERAGE DUE TO SOME UPPER RIDGE INFLUENCE TO THE SOUTH AND
SOUTHWEST... A CHANCE OF CONVECTION FOR ALL AREAS IS WARRANTED
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. SOME MID LEVEL DRY AIR
IS NOTED ON LATEST SATELLITE WATER VAPOR LOOP TO THE NORTHWEST AND
SHOULD SPREAD IN OVER THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WOULD SERVE TO
ENHANCE STORM DOWNBURST... SUGGESTING THE GREATER STORM THREAT TODAY
WILL BE STRONG TO POTENTIALLY DAMAGING WINDS WITH THE STRONGER
STORMS. SPC HAS PUSHED A FIVE PERCENT CHANCE OF DAMAGING WINDS INTO
FAR NORTH GA TODAY... BUT SUSPECT THIS POTENTIAL WILL EXTEND MUCH
FURTHER SOUTH. WILL WORD FOR A FEW STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE STORMS
IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR TODAY.

NO STORM THREAT TONIGHT WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND CONTINUED
RIDGE INFLUENCE. EXPECT SOME PATCHY FOG AND WARMER LOW TEMPS... WITH
MOST AREA LOWS HOLDING IN THE 70S.

THE THUNDERSTORM THREAT IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH TO JUST SLIGHT
CHANCE AT BEST ON THURSDAY AS THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE STATE
FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL PUSH DAYTIME HIGHS WILL INTO THE MID AND
UPPER 90S FOR MANY AREAS... AND COULD HELP PUSH SOME HEAT INDEX
VALUES ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL GA CLOSE TO THE CRITICAL 105 DEGREE
MARK THURSDAY AFTERNOON. WILL MONITOR THIS POTENTIAL CLOSELY WITH
LATER FORECAST.

39

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE FORECAST AREA DOMINATED BY
STRONG UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE EXTENDED
FORECAST PERIOD. GFS AND ECMWF REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE
WEEKEND BUT DIVERGE SOMEWHAT GOING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH THE
ECMWF FLATTEN THE RIDGE OVER US WHILE THE GFS...ALTHOUGH SHOWING
SOME WEAKENING... KEEPS THE RIDGE OVER THE REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
STILL...THESE DIFFERENCES DO NOT ALTER THE GENERAL TREND OF HOT AND
MOSTLY DRY THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH MODERATING TEMPERATURES AND
INCREASING PRECIPITATION CHANCES EARLY NEXT WEEK...WHICH IS WHAT WE
HAVE BEEN CARRYING IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST FOR THE PAST SEVERAL
DAYS NOW. WITH THIS IN MIND I DO NOT PLAN ON DEVIATING TOO MUCH FROM
PREVIOUS TRENDS IN THE FORECAST GRIDS. THROUGH THE WEEKEND THE
GFS/ECMWF KEEP THE CENTER OF THE UPPER RIDGE WEST OF THE STATE WITH
THE BEST SUBSIDENCE REMAINING WEST OF US AS WELL. WITH THIS IN MIND
I WILL KEEP THE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS INTO THE WEEKEND WITH CHANCE POPS
AS WE HEAD INTO THE FIRST HALF OF THE NEW WEEK.

20

&&

AVIATION...
06Z UPDATE...
LATEST AREA OBS SHOW LIFR CIGS ALREADY AT CARROLLTON /CTJ/ AND
NEWNAN /CCO/. THE WESTERLY FLOW SHOULD SPREAD AT LEAST IFR CIGS INTO
THE ATLANTA TAF SITES BY 09Z IF NOT SOONER. EXPECT A GRADUAL
IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR CIGS BY 13-14Z... THEN VFR BY 15-16Z. GFS AND
NAM MODELS SHOW A SUBTLE ACTIVE NW FLOW ALOFT THIS AFTERNOON...
WHICH WOULD SUPPORT DIURNAL CONVECTION BETWEEN 18-22Z TODAY. WILL
CONTINUE TO SHOW PROB30 -TSRA FOR THIS TIME PERIOD. LIGHT WSW WINDS
EARLY THIS MORNING WILL MIX DOWN MORE WNW BY 15-17Z AND INCREASE TO
AROUND 8-10KTS. EXPECT LIGHT WNW WINDS TONIGHT WITH ONLY SCT MVFR
LEVEL CLOUDS EXPECTED BY 09-10Z THU MORNING AT THIS TIME.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...06Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM ON IFR/MVFR CIGS LATER THIS MORNING. HIGH CONFIDENCE ON ALL
OTHER ELEMENTS.

39

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          96  71  97  73 /  30  20  20  20
ATLANTA         92  75  94  76 /  30  20  20  20
BLAIRSVILLE     88  66  88  68 /  30  30  20  20
CARTERSVILLE    93  70  96  71 /  30  20  20  20
COLUMBUS        96  74  95  76 /  30  20  20  20
GAINESVILLE     93  73  94  74 /  30  20  20  20
MACON           96  72  97  74 /  30  20  20  20
ROME            94  71  96  71 /  30  20  20  20
PEACHTREE CITY  92  70  94  72 /  30  20  20  20
VIDALIA         96  74  98  76 /  30  20  20  20

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...39
LONG TERM....20
AVIATION...39





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