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Area Forecast Discussion

FXUS62 KFFC 240526 AAC

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
126 AM EDT WED AUG 24 2016

Update for Aviation.

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 1007 PM EDT TUE AUG 23 2016/


Lingering thunderstorm activity continues across SW portions of
the forecast area where some 3 hr accumulations have been in
excess of 2.5 inches. The culprit outflow boundary is now moving
west of the area and anticipate activity to continue to dissipate
through midnight. Only limited changes to the grids planned.


PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 827 PM EDT TUE AUG 23 2016/

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 336 PM EDT TUE AUG 23 2016/

SHORT TERM /Tonight through Wednesday Night/...
Low pressure trough remains situated across south GA this afternoon.
Scattered afternoon showers and thunderstorms have developed in the
vicinity of the boundary...but should diminish with the loss of
heating. Isolated showers have also developed across the far eastern
CWFA...where there are slightly higher dewpoints. Storms are pulse
in nature. Locally heavy rainfall and gusty winds will be the
primary threats from any storms.

The boundary will continue to lurk across the CWFA tomorrow.
However, somewhat drier air for this time of year is expected to
settle over eastern GA tomorrow...with the highest moisture pooling
along the AL/GA border. Have the best pops in this region, but they
will still be iso/sct in nature.


LONG TERM /Thursday through Tuesday/...
No major changes made to the extended forecast. High pressure
aloft and at the surface will continue to influence the extended
forecast. Upper level ridging centered west of the forecast area
early Thursday will trek northeast across portions of north GA to
the Appalachians by Saturday and over VA by Sunday/Monday. Weak
high pressure at the surface will yield to southern end of a weak
surface boundary by Saturday, mainly across the mountains/eastern

Models are in good agreement as far as main features are
concerned, however discrepancies noted in timing/location/strength
of systems, especially tropical system as it approaches Bahamas by
weekend. Will continue to keep an eye on the tropics through
extended period and beyond for impacts to forecast area.

Winds across the area will bring some moisture to the area and
models showing isolated to scattered - mainly afternoon/evening
showers and thunderstorms. Main areas will be north GA each day
where mountains will aid in development with orographic lift, and
central GA Sunday/Monday as tropical moisture in vicinity.
Otherwise, clouds will be mostly scattered, with an increase in
the afternoon as convection develops. This will allow
temperatures to once again climb into the mid 90s across much of
the area each afternoon.




Potential for some IFR-MVFR ceilings to develop toward daybreak
with maybe some patchy IFR-MVFR vsbys due to fog. Then mainly sct-
bkn 4000-6000 ft clouds. Best chances for convection near the ATL
area and N and W. Less so for AHN and MCN. Surface winds light and
variable or light ESE then ESE 10 kts or less during the day.

Low confidence for thunderstorms to affect ATL.
Medium for any IFR-MVFR ceilings this morning.
High for all other elements.



Athens          90  69  92  71 /  20   5   5   5
Atlanta         89  73  91  73 /  30   5   5   5
Blairsville     83  65  86  66 /  30  10  20   5
Cartersville    89  71  92  71 /  30   5   5   5
Columbus        92  73  92  71 /  20   5   5   5
Gainesville     87  71  90  71 /  20   5  10   5
Macon           92  69  93  70 /  10   5   5   0
Rome            90  71  93  71 /  40  10  10   5
Peachtree City  89  69  91  69 /  30   5   5   5
Vidalia         93  70  93  71 /   5   0   5   5





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