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Area Forecast Discussion

214
FXUS62 KFFC 270023
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
823 PM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 344 PM EDT SUN APR 26 2015/

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
MORE STABLE AIR WORKING ITS WAY INTO GA THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO
THE EVENING AS A AS A SURFACE BOUNDARY DRIFTS SOUTHWARD. HAVE
REMOVED ALL POPS STARTING AT 00Z AND HAVE KEPT THE SHORT TERM DRY
WITH WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT DOMINATING. EXPECT A GRADUAL
LOWERING OF DEW POINTS THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS BECOMING EASTERLY
BY MONDAY NIGHT AND HAVE LOWERED THE OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES A BIT
ALONG THE EASTERN COUNTIES. THE ONLY EXCEPTION TO THE DRY FORECAST
IS A RETURN FLOW OF MOISTURE INTO THE EXTREME WEST CENTRAL AREA
LATE MONDAY NIGHT AS A SHORT WAVE TRACKS ALONG THE GULF COAST.
HAVE INTRODUCED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THAT AREA AFTER 06Z
TUESDAY.

41

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NO LARGE WHOLESALE CHANGES MADE TO FORECAST BUT DID REFRESH BASED
ON LATEST OVERALL BLEND. MAINLY UPPED TO LIKELY POPS AREA- WIDE
FOR LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WITH LOW PUSHING
NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS AREA. MODELS STILL LIMITING INSTABILITY WITH
THIS SYSTEM SO HAVE KEPT ANY CHANCE OF THUNDER TO PARTS OF CENTRAL
GA. QPF LOOKS TO BE AROUND 0.75 TO 1 INCH. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
FOLLOWS...

BAKER

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 322 AM EDT SUN APR 26 2015/

LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ONLY ONE WEATHER SYSTEM TO FOCUS ON IN THE EXTENDED. A SHORTWAVE
SLIDES ACROSS THE TN VALLEY MID WEEK WHILE THE SFC LOW TRACKS ALONG
THE GULF STATES AND ACROSS SOUTHERN GEORGIA. ALTHOUGH THIS WILL
BRING BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BACK TO THE CWA TUESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY...INSTABILITY WITH THE SYSTEM IS LIMITED /GENERALLY
LESS THAN 500 J/KG OF MUCAPE/ WHICH WILL RESULT IN MOSTLY SHOWERS
FOR NORTH GEORGIA AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE SHOWERS ACROSS
CENTRAL GEORGIA WHERE THIS HIGHER INSTABILITY IS LOCATED. STILL SOME
MINOR DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF IN TERMS OF FEATURES AND
TIMING...BUT BOTH ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT THE BEST CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE TUESDAY NIGHT TO WEDNESDAY TIME FRAME.
AFTER THIS SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH...HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES AT THE SFC
AND KEEPS THE CWA DRY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

11

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z UPDATE...
IFR THAT WAS NOTED OVER FAR NORTH GEORGIA HAS LIFTED TO AN MVFR
DECK BUT NOT MUCH PROGRESS THUS FAR SOUTHWARD. DO EXPECT SOME LOW
CLOUDS TO APPROACH LATER TONIGHT AS FRONT MOVES THROUGH BUT MUCH
UNCERTAINTY IF THIS WILL BE A BKN OR SCT DECK. AT THIS TIME WILL
JUST GO WITH A SCT MVFR DECK FOR ATL AND BKN IN BETTER MOISTURE
FOR AHN AND MCN. VFR AFTER 15Z MONDAY WITH LOWER WIND SPEEDS
EXPECTED.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...00Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM ON MVFR DEVELOPMENT.
HIGH ON REMAINING ELEMENTS.

DEESE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          54  73  47  67 /   5   5   5  20
ATLANTA         54  72  52  66 /   5   0   5  30
BLAIRSVILLE     44  66  43  64 /   5   0   0  20
CARTERSVILLE    49  70  48  67 /   5   0   5  30
COLUMBUS        58  77  57  69 /   0   0  20  40
GAINESVILLE     52  71  47  65 /   5   0   5  20
MACON           56  75  55  68 /   5   0  10  30
ROME            49  70  48  68 /   5   0   5  30
PEACHTREE CITY  52  74  51  67 /   5   0   5  30
VIDALIA         61  76  58  70 /   5   5  10  30

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DEESE
LONG TERM....01
AVIATION...DEESE



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