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Area Forecast Discussion

091
FXUS62 KFFC 010738
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
338 AM EDT FRI AUG 1 2014

.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LARGE UPPER TROUGH REMAINS DOMINANT FEATURE OVER ERN CONUS DURING
SHORT TERM PERIOD. TROUGH AXIS STILL PROGGED TO REMAIN STATIONARY
WEST OF THE STATE THRU AT LEAST SUNDAY. LOW LEVEL COOL AIR STILL IN
PLACE THIS MORNING ENHANCING LOW LEVEL ISENTROPIC LIFT...BUT SHOULD
ERODE SOME TODAY. TEMPS AND SFC-BASED INSTABILITY YESTERDAY A LITTLE
HIGHER THAN EXPECTED SOUTH OF I-20. HAVE ADJUSTED GUIDANCE TEMPS AND
WX GRIDS FOR TODAY FOR SIMILAR REASONS. NOT ANTICIPATING SEVERE
STORMS BUT COULD SEE ISOLD STORMS BECOME STRONG. HEAVY RAIN ALSO A
THREAT THOUGH OBSERVED AND FCST SOUNDINGS NOT INDICATING EXTREME PW
COMPARED TO NORMAL VALUES...AROUND 75TH PERCENTILE ON 00Z FFC
SOUNDING. MODEL AND WPC GUIDANCE QPF ALSO KEEPING HIGHER AMOUNTS
OUTSIDE OF CWA.

SHRA/TSRA COVERAGE ABOUT THE SAME OR A LITTLE HIGHER SATURDAY.
DIFFICULT TO PIN DOWN ANY ONE AREA. MAY SEE A LITTLE MORE TSRA THAN
PREV DAYS ON SAT BUT LOCATION/COVERAGE/TIMING AGAIN WILL DEPEND
HEAVILY ON MORNING SHRA AND CLOUDS. MODIFIED BIAS-CORRECTED BLEND
FOR TEMPS BASED ON EXPECTED CLOUD/PRECIP AREAS.

TROPICAL ACTIVITY IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC EXPECTED TO REMAIN
OFFSHORE WELL EAST OF THE STATE BASED ON TPC AND MODEL GUIDANCE.


SNELSON

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A MOIST UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE AREA IN THE LONG
TERM WITH THE TROUGH EXPECTED TO WEAKEN TUESDAY. GFS AND EUROPEAN
BEGIN TO DIFFER THURSDAY WITH THE GFS DEVELOPING ANOTHER UPPER
TROUGH TO THE WEST AND THE EUROPEAN WANTING MORE OF A WEAK RIDGE.

HIGHEST POPS FAVORING CENTRAL GA WHERE THE DEEPEST MOISTURE IS
EXPECTED TO BE INTO TUESDAY. POPS THEN FAVORING MORE TOWARD CLIMO
FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. PRECIP WILL STILL HAVE A DIURNAL TREND
BUT MAY NOT NECESSARILY END AT NIGHT.

FORECAST HIGH TEMPERATURES FAVORING ABOUT 5-8 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL
AND GETTING BACK CLOSER TO NORMAL TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. FORECAST
LOW TEMPERATURES FAVORING NEAR TO 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

BDL

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z UPDATE...
IFR CIGS EXPECTED THRU 15Z THIS MORNING WITH SOME LIFR POSSIBLE AT
KAHN AND ATL METRO AIRPORTS AS COOL ENE SFC WINDS BRING RAIN
COOLED AND MOIST AIR INTO THOSE AREAS. COULD SEE SOME TSRA THIS
AFTERNOON MAINLY IN MIDDLE GA WHERE INSTABILITY WILL BE HIGHER.
HAVE KEPT PROB30 FOR TSRA ONLY AT KCSG AND KMCN. HAVE BACKED OFF
ON PROBS OF SHRA OVER THE AREA BASED ON LATEST FORECAST
INFORMATION AND CLOUD COVER. ANOTHER ROUND OF IFR CIGS LIKELY
AFTER 08Z SAT.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...06Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ON TSRA LIKELIHOOD.
HIGH CONFIDENCE ON ALL OTHER ELEMENTS.

SNELSON

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          84  68  84  69 /  50  40  50  50
ATLANTA         84  69  84  70 /  40  40  50  40
BLAIRSVILLE     78  61  78  63 /  60  40  50  40
CARTERSVILLE    85  66  85  67 /  40  40  60  40
COLUMBUS        89  72  87  72 /  40  30  50  50
GAINESVILLE     79  68  81  69 /  50  40  50  40
MACON           87  69  85  71 /  40  40  50  50
ROME            85  68  85  67 /  40  40  60  40
PEACHTREE CITY  86  68  86  68 /  40  40  50  50
VIDALIA         92  73  90  73 /  50  40  60  50

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SNELSON
LONG TERM....BDL
AVIATION...SNELSON





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