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Area Forecast Discussion

939
FXUS62 KFFC 260551 AAC
AFDFFC

Area Forecast Discussion...Updated
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
250 AM EDT SUN JUN 26 2016



.UPDATE...
Regional radar loop showing scattered showers and thunderstorms
lingering across portions of the CWFA this evening. Most of the
activity is situated along and south of a weak boundary situated
from near Rome to Atlanta to Louisville. Storms have been slow
movers and producing around an inch an hour. Thunderstorms have
also been prolific lighting producers.

Still plenty of instability to work with...and isolated storms
could linger all night. There is still some good potential for
a few strong storms overnight. An isolated severe thunderstorm
cannot be ruled out.

Have tweaked the pops a bit and oriented them mainly along and
south of the weak boundary.

The Heat Advisory will be allowed to expire at 10pm.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 242 PM EDT SAT JUN 25 2016/

SHORT TERM /Tonight through Sunday Night/...
Latest surface analysis shows a weak frontal boundary still
lingering near a La Grange to Macon to Swainsboro line... with areas
along and south of this line having the greater chances to see some
isolated to scattered afternoon and evening convection. Thinking the
greater isolated severe storm threat will be generally along and
south of a Columbus to Vidalia line where the greater forcing and
instability is expected to be pooled. This is also close to what is
indicated in SPC`s latest day one outlook.

Otherwise... convection should greatly diminish by mid to late
evening with loss of daytime heating. Models show good agreement
with a cool wedge of high pressure nosing down from the northeast
late tonight. This should spread abundant low cloudiness over much
of the area by daybreak Sunday. These morning clouds should burn off
by Sunday afternoon... allowing most areas to climb into the upper
80s to mid 90s... but do expect to see slightly cooler highs on
Sunday due to clouds and easterly winds. Models show the wedge front
backing up as a warm front as the wedge erodes... and this... along
with the upper ridge weakening... should support scattered afternoon
convection... with the greater chances generally over the western
and southern portions of the forecast area from late Sunday
afternoon through Sunday evening. This convection will diminish by
midnight... but will hold onto a slight chance Sunday night. Lows
tonight and Sunday night will hold generally in the 70s... except
for some 60s in the mountains.

39

LONG TERM /Monday through Saturday/...
Primary concern in the long term period is chance for diurnal
convection. Pattern dominated by long wave troughing over the
eastern CONUS which is progged to setup Tuesday and persist
through Saturday with good consensus from medium range models.
Weak front appears also likely to meander or remain stationary over
the state, especially central/southern portions. Temps should be
near normal or slightly below normal, especially min temps if front
can push further south. Unfortunately, personal experience is that
fronts dont push as far south as forecast by med range models often
indicate.

Similarly, not confident on magnitude and location of where CAPE
sets up in the afternoon and evening through the period. Most days
should see scattered coverage of strong convection and one or two
could be severe on any given day with better chances in middle
Georgia. A touch more vertical wind shear in this pattern than
what we typically see in late June so could add a little oomph to
the storms. Will have to watch this.

SNELSON

PREV LONG TERM DISCUSSION... /Issued 133 AM EDT SAT JUN 25 2016/

No real substantive changes to the extended forecast trends with
this cycle. Weak upper-level ridging holds over the region
through the weekend...but as we get into the beginning of the
long term forecast period at the start of the work-week that
pattern is already transitioning into a northwest flow
pattern...and eventually evolves into broad upper troughing
across the eastern U.S. by the end of the week. As is typical for
the season...best short wave energy remains well north of the
state but weaker upper forcing and the presence of a persistent
surface trough/front across the forecast area should keep at
least scattered...diurnally favored... convection in the forecast
through the period. Instability is not expected to be extreme...and
shear is limited as well...limiting the potential for severe
weather. However...with the potential for strong thermodynamic
influences each day with surface heating...a few strong to severe
thunderstorms cannot be ruled out...especially if any weak or
moderate short wave interaction coincides with maximum daily
heating.

20

&&


AVIATION...
06Z Update...

Isolated convection weakening across southern portions of the
forecast area at this time...and this trend is expected to continue
with little or no activity expected between 08Z and 16Z. Isolated to
scattered convection will re-develop after 16Z with best coverage
between 18Z and 00Z. Also expect better coverage across southern and
western portions of the area. MVFR ceilings are expected to develop
over eastern portions of the area by 08-10Z and quickly spread east
with all TAF sites except KCSG likely to see at least a period of
MVFR ceilings between 10z and 16Z. winds will be northeast to east
at 3-8KT through 10z...becoming east to southeast 6-12KT through the
afternoon before diminishing to 6KT or less after 00Z.

//ATL Confidence...06Z Update...

Medium confidence on exact timing and extent of MVFR ceilings.
High all other elements.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          73  91  72  92 /  20  30  30  40
Atlanta         75  92  74  91 /  20  40  30  40
Blairsville     67  87  67  85 /  20  40  30  60
Cartersville    72  93  72  91 /  20  40  30  50
Columbus        76  96  74  94 /  30  50  30  40
Gainesville     73  90  73  89 /  20  40  30  50
Macon           75  95  73  94 /  30  40  30  30
Rome            72  94  72  91 /  20  40  30  50
Peachtree City  71  93  71  91 /  20  40  30  40
Vidalia         75  94  74  92 /  30  50  30  20

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$



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