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Area Forecast Discussion

916
FXUS62 KFFC 040013 AAA
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
813 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.UPDATE...
NEAR-TERM GRIDS UPDATED TO REFLECT OBSERVED TRENDS AND RECENT
GUIDANCE. EXPECT SCT CONVECTION IN CENTRAL AL TO MOVE EAST INTO
WESTCENTRAL GA AROUND 10PM THEN WEAKEN AFTER MIDNIGHT.

A LARGER AREA OF SHRA/TSRA LIKELY TO MOVE INTO NORTHWEST GA AFTER
2AM SPREADING SLOWLY SOUTH AND EAST. THESE STORMS SHOULD NOT BE
SEVERE BUT MAY PRODUCE PERIODS OF HVY RAIN...BASED ON THIS WILL
KEEP FLASH FLOOD WATCH GOING. THIS WEAKENING AREA OF CONVECTION
SAT MORNING COULD AFFECT LOCAL ACTIVITIES IN THE ATL METRO
INCLUDING THE PEACHTREE ROAD RACE. WHATS LEFT OF THIS PRECIP
SHOULD CONTINUE TO WEAKEN WITH ADDITIONAL ISOLD/SCT CONVECTION IN
THE AFTERNOON JUST ABOUT ANYWHERE WITH PREFERENCE FOR AREAS NEAR
BOUNDARIES AND GRADIENTS BETWEEN THICK CLOUD COVER AND SUNSHINE.

SNELSON

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 334 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015/

..FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR NORTH GEORGIA THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING...

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
MOIST AND RELATIVELY FAST (35-45KT) ZONAL LOW TO MID LVL FLOW
CONTINUES TO SEND ONE IMPULSE AFTER ANOTHER ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
REGION...SUPPORTING THE MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
THAT WILL PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST SUNDAY.

TIMING/DURATION/INTENSITY OF EACH "ROUND" HAS BEEN CHALLENGING GIVEN
RAPID FLUCTUATIONS WITH MESOSCALE ENVIRONMENT. THE AREA IS IN A BIT
OF LULL THIS AFTERNOON BUT EXPECT THINGS TO PICK BACK UP LATE THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS NEXT S/W APPROACHES. MODELS ACTUALLY IN
PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS WAVE OVERNIGHT...WITH THE NAM BEING
THE MOST AGGRESSIVE SHOWING A 1-3 INCH MAX OF 6-HOUR PRECIP FROM
CENTRAL AL TO NORTHEAST GA BTWN 06-12Z/SAT. TRACK OF S/W ENERGY AND
BEST LOW LVL CONVG SEEM TO SUPPORT THE HEAVIER RAIN OCCURRING ACROSS
NORTH GA LATE TONIGHT/EARLY SAT.

ANY BREAK IN CONVECTION WILL BE SHORT-LIVED ON SATURDAY AS UPR LVL
LOW STRENGTHENS OVER NRN MS/WRN TN AROUND 00Z/SUNDAY. FAVORABLE
MOISTURE/ENERGY ADVECTION WITHIN PRONOUNCED SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL
SUPPORT ADDITIONAL SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THAT WILL TRACK ACROSS
AL/GA BY SATURDAY EVENING INTO SUNDAY MORNING AS UPR LOW APPROACHES
EASTERN TENNESSEE BY 12Z/SUNDAY. ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAIN EXPECTED
SATURDAY NIGHT. FLOOD PRONE AREAS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTH GA...
WILL BE SUSCEPTIBLE TO FLOODING/FLASH FLOODING THROUGH SUNDAY. EACH
ROUND OF RAIN /TONIGHT AND AGAIN SATURDAY NIGHT/ COULD BRING AT
LEAST AN INCH WITH ISOLD AMOUNTS UP TO 2 INCHES. ROUGH ESTIMATE OF
THE HEAVIEST RAIN AXIS OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS WILL BE ALONG AND
NORTH/WEST OF A CARROLLTON TO MARIETTA TO GAINESVILLE LINE...BUT
CERTAINLY THIS IS NOT EXACT.

GIVEN MOIST ENVIRONMENT AND LIMITED HEATING DUE TO CLOUDS AND
RAIN...SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL GENERALLY BE LOW. HOWEVER...SIMILAR TO
TODAY...IF OUTFLOW-DRIVEN BROKEN LINE/WEAK QLCS ROLLS INTO MORE
UNSTABLE AIRMASS SOUTH AND EAST OF ATL...EXPECT A FEW STRONG TO
MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS WITH DAMAGING WINDS CONTINUING TO BE
PRIMARY THREAT.

DJN.83

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

BY MONDAY...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS IS OVER THE EASTERN TWO THIRDS
OF THE AREA WITH SOME MID LEVEL DRIER AIR NOTED FOR THE NORTHERN
CWA WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER DROPPING TO 1.4 INCHES. OVERALL WOULD
EXPECT THIS TO RESULT IN A REDUCTION IN COVERAGE OF STORMS OVER
PREVIOUS DAYS AND PLAN ONLY MINOR TWEAKS TO CURRENTLY ADVERTISED
MID TO HIGH END CHANCE GRIDS. DRIER AIR CONTINUES FOR TUESDAY
BEFORE ERODING AWAY AND GIVING WAY TO CONTINUED HIGH MOISTURE
ATMOSPHERE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM. WITH MID AND UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING IN HOWEVER...UPPER LEVEL ENERGY IS MUCH
REDUCED THROUGH THE PERIOD AND DIURNALLY FAVORED CHANCE POPS LOOK
SUFFICE FOR THE GRIDS. REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK AND
NO CHANGES ARE PLANNED.

DEESE

39

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z UPDATE...
PRIMARY CONCERN IS THREAT FOR TSRA OVERNIGHT AND SAT AFTERNOON.
MOST LIKELY SCENARIO IS THAT OTHER THAN ISOLD TSRA IN WESTCENTRAL
GA 02Z-05Z...AREA OF SHRA/TSRA LIKELY OVER NORTHWEST GA AFTER 05Z
SPREADING INTO ATL METRO AROUND 07Z. NOT SURE PRECIP WILL MAKE IT
THAT FAR SOUTH...BUT MOST LIKELY BASED ON RECENT GUIDANCE. PRECIP
SHOULD CLEAR ABOUT 2-4HRS AFTER ONSET. NO OTHER BIG CONCERNS. SFC
WINDS WILL REMAIN ON WEST COMPONENT. MVFR CIGS/VSBYS DURING
SHRA/TSRA OTHERWISE VFR.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...00Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ON LIKELIHOOD AND TIMING OF TSRA.
HIGH CONFIDENCE ON ALL OTHER ELEMENTS.

SNELSON

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          69  84  68  86 /  40  40  30  50
ATLANTA         71  82  69  83 /  50  50  50  60
BLAIRSVILLE     64  74  63  78 /  70  70  50  60
CARTERSVILLE    69  79  67  82 /  70  70  60  60
COLUMBUS        73  86  71  87 /  60  50  40  50
GAINESVILLE     69  79  68  81 /  60  50  40  60
MACON           71  89  70  88 /  30  40  20  50
ROME            69  80  68  83 /  70  60  60  60
PEACHTREE CITY  70  84  69  84 /  50  50  40  60
VIDALIA         73  92  72  92 /  40  30  20  40

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: BANKS...BARROW...BARTOW...CARROLL...CATOOSA...CHATTOOGA...
CHEROKEE...CLARKE...COBB...DADE...DAWSON...DEKALB...DOUGLAS...
FANNIN...FLOYD...FORSYTH...GILMER...GORDON...GWINNETT...HALL...
HARALSON...JACKSON...LUMPKIN...MADISON...MURRAY...NORTH FULTON...
OCONEE...OGLETHORPE...PAULDING...PICKENS...POLK...SOUTH FULTON...
TOWNS...UNION...WALKER...WALTON...WHITE...WHITFIELD...WILKES.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SNELSON
LONG TERM....17
AVIATION...SNELSON



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