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Area Forecast Discussion

726
FXUS62 KFFC 211946
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
346 PM EDT MON JUL 21 2014


.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AN UPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CURRENTLY SPINNING OVER ALABAMA IS
PROGGD BY MODELS TO SLOWLY RETROGRADE WSW OVER SOUTH LA/MS/AL BY
EARLY TUESDAY... WHERE IT CONTINUES TO SPIN THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.
AS A RESULT... THE STATE REMAINS ON THE MOIST AND ACTIVE EAST SIDE
WHERE MODELS AGREE ON A SERIES OF WEAK VORT LOBES TRAVERSING AROUND
THE LOW THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN
AIRMASS... WILL LEAN TOWARD PERSISTENCE AND EXPECT SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS AFTERNOON AND EVENING CONVECTION...WITH SCATTERED TO
ISOLATED CONVECTION OVERNIGHT. THE MAIN THUNDERSTORM THREAT WILL
LIKELY REMAIN SOUTH OF THE I-20 CORRIDOR WEST OF ATLANTA... AND
SOUTH OF THE I-85 CORRIDOR EAST OF ATLANTA THROUGH THIS EVENING...
AND AGAIN ON TUESDAY. EXPECT SPOTTY SHOWERS AND PATCHES OF LIGHT
RAIN/DRIZZLE EACH NIGHT.

SPC IS SHOWING ONLY A GENERAL THUNDER OUTLOOK FOR THE AREA THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT... AND THIS LOOKS REASONABLE WITH VERY LITTLE WIND
SHEAR OR FORCING. THEREFORE... NO SEVERE STORMS ARE EXPECTED. THE
GREATER CONCERN CONTINUES TO BE LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AS TRAINING
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS OVER AN ALREADY WET GROUND COULD QUICKLY
PRODUCE VERY HEAVY RAIN AND LOCALIZED FLOODING. ALTHOUGH ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT... THE GREATER THUNDERSTORM
THREAT SHOULD DIMINISH BY 11 PM EACH EVENING.

AS FOR TEMPS...THE PERSISTENT MOIST TROPICAL AIRMASS WITH AMPLE
CLOUDS AND INCREASED RAIN POTENTIAL WILL WARRANT LEANING TOWARD
PERSISTENCE FOR LOWS TONIGHT AND HIGHS AGAIN ON TUESDAY. MAY SEE
SOME SLIGHTLY COOLER LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE TRIES TO
BUILD IN FROM THE EAST AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SPINS OVER LOWER
LA.

39


.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
NO CHANGES MADE TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST. GENERALLY ABOVE NORMAL
RAIN CHANCES CONTINUE INTO THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS ACTIVE WEATHER
PATTERN CONTINUES. MODELS STILL KEEP HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AT
BAY...CENTERED OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL U.S. BY LATE TUESDAY. MODEL
CONSENSUS HAS UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF
MEXICO STATES AT THIS TIME...KEEPING AMPLE MOISTURE ACROSS GEORGIA
AND THE CAROLINAS. LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED IN THE MOISTURE
POSITION OVER THE STATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING...WITH
GOOD CHANCE POPS OR HIGHER EACH AFTERNOON. THURSDAY ANOTHER FRONT
PUSHES INTO THE REGION...TRIGGERING ADDITIONAL RAINFALL. NORTHWEST
FLOW PREVAILS INTO THE WEEKEND WITH MODELS SUGGESTING THE ACTIVE
PATTERN WILL USHER SEVERAL DISTURBANCES ACROSS THE AREA. THERE IS
SOME DISAGREEMENT BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF ON TIMING...ESPECIALLY
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...AND HAVE GENERALLY KEPT POPS LOW IN THE
OVERNIGHT PERIODS...AND INTO THE GOOD CHANCE CATEGORY EACH DAY.

HAVE CONTINUED TO HIGHLIGHT THE AFTERNOON PERIODS WITH THE BEST
POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE DIURNAL
ENHANCEMENT OF THE CONVECTION. ADVERTISED INSTABILITIES STILL LOOK
TO SUPPORT STRONG TO POTENTIALLY BRIEF SEVERE STORMS EACH
AFTERNOON...BUT ON THE WHOLE STILL EXPECT THE MAJORITY TO BE SUB-
SEVERE WITH THE MAIN CONCERN BEING HEAVY RAINFALL. PWS CONTINUE TO
BE HIGH /WELL ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR/ AND LOCALIZED
HEAVY RAINFALL AMOUNTS CAN BE EXPECTED...PARTICULARLY OVER AREAS
WHERE STORMS HAVE LITTLE MOVEMENT...OR WHERE STORMS MAY TRAIN OVER
THE SAME LOCATION. THINKING IS STILL THAT THE FLASH FLOOD RISK IS
ISOLATED/LOCALIZED...AND HAVE NOT ISSUED ANY KIND OF WATCH AT THIS
TIME.

GENERALLY NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES CONTINUE
TO LOOK APPROPRIATE FOR THE WEEK GIVEN THE EXTENDED PERIODS OF
AMPLE CLOUD COVER AND CONVECTION WHICH WILL LIMIT INSOLATION.

31/01


&&

.AVIATION...
18Z UPDATE...
UPPER LOW MEANDERING OVER NORTH AL/MS WILL HOLD TAF SITES DEEP IN A
WARM/MOIST/UNSTABLE AIRMASS. WITH LITTLE CHANGE EXPECTED... WILL
LEAN CLOSE TO PERSISTENCE THRU THE TAF PERIOD. CURRENT VFR CIGS WILL
PREVAIL EACH AFTERNOON WITH TEMPO -TSRA AND MVFR CIGS EXPECTED THIS
AFTERNOON AND AGAIN TUE AFTERNOON. LIFR/IFR CIGS WILL RETURN TONIGHT
WITH PATCHY 2-4SM -DZ/BR PROBABLE. WINDS WILL DANCE BETWEEN SSW AND
SSE THIS AFTN...THEN BACK MORE EAST TONIGHT AND REMAIN MAINLY SSE ON
TUE. SPEEDS OF 7KTS OR LESS ARE EXPECTED.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...18Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN ALL ELEMENTS.

39

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          71  84  70  91 /  50  60  50  30
ATLANTA         72  84  70  88 /  50  50  40  30
BLAIRSVILLE     68  80  64  83 /  50  60  50  40
CARTERSVILLE    71  85  69  89 /  50  50  50  30
COLUMBUS        72  87  72  92 /  50  50  40  30
GAINESVILLE     70  82  69  87 /  50  60  50  40
MACON           72  86  70  91 /  50  50  40  30
ROME            71  87  70  90 /  50  50  50  40
PEACHTREE CITY  71  84  69  89 /  50  50  40  30
VIDALIA         73  87  73  93 /  50  60  50  30

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...39
LONG TERM....01
AVIATION...39





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