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Area Forecast Discussion

789
FXUS62 KFFC 121150
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
650 AM EST FRI FEB 12 2016


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 359 AM EST FRI FEB 12 2016/

.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FIRST PORTION OF FCST PERIOD STARTS WITH A WEAK DISTURBANCE AND
LIMITED ASSOCIATED MOISTURE FIELD FLIRTING WITH THE FAR NORTHERN
PORTION OF THE CWA THRU THIS MORNING. PROGGED THERMAL PROFILES
INDICATE SOME LIGHT SNOW CANNOT BE RULED OUT ESP FOR THE FAR NE
REACH OF THE AREA THOUGH CHANCE REMAINS SLIGHT AT BEST WITH NO
ACCUMULATION EXPECTED. ASIDE FROM THIS FEATURE WE SHOULD BE
DOMINATED BY DRY NW FLOW ALOFT AND A STRONG 1040-MB HIGH SLIDING
INTO THE OHIO VALLEY BY SATURDAY. THIS CANADIAN AIRMASS LOOKS TO BE
THE COLDEST YET OF THE SEASON AS RESULTANT TEMPS SHOULD BEGIN
DIPPING ABOUT 15-20 DEGREES BELOW CLIMO NORMS. GRADIENT WINDS WILL
BRING SOME HIGHER ELEVATIONS NEAR WIND ADVISORY LEVELS AFTER
MIDNIGHT TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING AND WIND CHILL VALUES MAY
ALSO REACH CLOSE TO ADVISORY LEVELS FOR A PORTION OF THIS TIME AS
WELL. WILL HOLD OFF FOR NOW ON ISSUANCES SINCE CONDITIONS ARE
SOMEWHAT BORDERLINE AND THE DAYTIME SUITE OF GUIDANCE MAY LEAN
MORESO IN ANOTHER DIRECTION. ALSO WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS SATURDAY AFTERNOON SINCE RH VALUES LOOK TO REACH
CRITERIA WITH SOME DRYING FUELS.

BAKER

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY. THE HIGH WILL WEDGE DOWN THE APPALACHIANS SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MONDAY. CURRENT MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF ON STRENGTH OF
WEDGE AND EXTENT OF COLD AIR...GENERALLY WARMER OVERALL. THIS
WOULD AFFECT TYPE AND LOCATION OF ANY PRECIP MIX. HAVE TRIED TO
COMPROMISE BY STAYING A BIT COOLER THAN LATEST MODELS ESPECIALLY
ON MONDAY. THIS WOULD KEEP A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW WITH SOME
FREEZING RAIN OVER A GOOD PORTION OF NORTH GA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY MONDAY. TOO EARLY TO ADVERTISE AMOUNTS. ALSO...THE SURFACE
LOW MOVES RAPIDLY ACROSS GA MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY BREAKING
DOWN THE WEDGE SOONER. IF THIS IS THE CASE...TUESDAY LOOKS ALL
LIQUID AND ONLY A PORTION OF NORTHEAST GA WOULD HAVE A CHANCE FOR
FROZEN PRECIP TUESDAY NIGHT WITH WRAP AROUND MOISTURE. OTHERWISE
THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD IS DRY AND WARMER.

41

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z UPDATE...
NORTHERN CIGS HAVE BEEN STAYING MORE IN VFR RANGE POSSIBLY DOWN TO
5 KFT OTHERWISE ALTO DECK...THOUGH COULD STILL SEE SOME LOWER END
VFR WITH AN APPROACHING DISTURBANCE. SOUTHERN SITES INITIALLY HAVE
BETTER CHANCE AT MVFR THIS MORNING. CIGS SHOULD LIFT AND SCATTER
OUT BY ABOUT 18-21Z. INITIAL LIGHT EAST TO NE WINDS FOR KATL AND
CALM ELSEWHERE SHOULD BECOME WNW NEAR 7 KTS AFTER 18Z AND INCREASE
WITH SOME 18-22 KT GUSTS FOR LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE OVERNIGHT
WITH CLEARING SKIES AS A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE
NORTH.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...12Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM ON CIGS.
HIGH ON ALL ELSE.

BAKER

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          54  29  43  21 /   5   0   0   0
ATLANTA         56  28  39  23 /   5   0   0   0
BLAIRSVILLE     46  21  31  16 /  20   5   0   0
CARTERSVILLE    54  26  37  19 /   5   0   0   0
COLUMBUS        64  34  47  26 /   5   0   0   0
GAINESVILLE     50  27  37  21 /   5   0   0   0
MACON           63  33  47  24 /   5   0   0   0
ROME            55  26  37  19 /   5   0   0   0
PEACHTREE CITY  59  29  41  22 /   5   0   0   0
VIDALIA         65  38  51  28 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BAKER
LONG TERM....41
AVIATION...BAKER



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