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Area Forecast Discussion

876
FXUS62 KFFC 281802 AAB
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
100 PM EST WED JAN 28 2015

.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
/ISSUED AT 428 AM EST WED JAN 28 2015/
MORNING SATELLITE LOOP SHOWS A BLANKET OF COLD AIR STRATUS ACROSS
MAINLY FAR NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST GA AND TRYING TO SPREAD SOUTH
INTO PARTS OF WEST CENTRAL GA. WITH MORNING TEMPS ACROSS THIS AREA
IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S... A FEW FLURRIES CANNOT BE RULED OUT IN THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS... BUT NOTHING OF CONCERN OR IMPACT THIS MORNING.
EXPECT THE MORNING CLOUDS TO QUICKLY ERODE... LEAVING THE FORECAST
AREA MOSTLY CLEAR WITH A NICE WARMUP INTO THE LOWER TO MID 50S THIS
AFTERNOON UNDER AMPLE SUNSHINE.

SHORT RANGE MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
ALONG THE OHIO AND MS VALLEYS DRIFTING EAST AND SETTLING ALONG THE
ATLANTIC COASTAL STATES LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL
RESULT IN A LIGHT SOUTHERLY WIND FLOW BY EARLY THURSDAY... OUT AHEAD
OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT THAT WILL PUSH EAST OF THE MS VALLEY
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. MODEL MOISTURE FIELDS REMAIN LIMITED...
SUGGESTING ONLY LIGHT RAINFALL AMOUNTS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
THE MODELS PUSH THE COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT. THE
LIMITED MOISTURE AND EXPECTED LIGHT/PATCHY PRECIP WILL ONLY WARRANT
A LOW CHANCE OF POPS THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT FOR
MOST AREAS.

THERE APPEARS TO BE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW IN
THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF NORTH GA THURSDAY NIGHT AS TEMPS THERE DIP
INTO THE LOWER TO MID 30S. HOWEVER... ANY ACCUMULATIONS WOULD BE
LIGHT DUE TO LIMITED MOISTURE... MAYBE A DUSTING ON GRASSY/EXPOSED
SURFACES IN ELEVATIONS AT OR ABOVE 2000 FT AT BEST. WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR THIS POTENTIAL CLOSELY WITH LATER MODEL RUNS... SO STAY
TUNED.

OTHERWISE... EXPECT NEAR NORMAL HIGHS TODAY... THEN ABOVE NORMAL
HIGHS ON THURSDAY AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONT. STRONG RADIATIONAL
COOLING UNDER CLEAR SKIES WILL ALLOW LOWS TO DIP BACK DOWN AROUND
FREEZING FOR MOST AREAS TONIGHT. LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT WILL HOLD IN
THE MID AND UPPER 30S FOR MOST OF NORTH GA... AND UPPER 30S TO MID
40S ACROSS CENTRAL GA.

39

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
/ISSUED AT 428 AM EST WED JAN 28 2015/
MAIN CONCERN FOR THE LONG TERM WILL BE WITH OVERRUNNING OF GULF
MOISTURE AGAINST A CAD WEDGE FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. MODELS
CONTINUE TO LACK IN RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY SO UNCERTAINTY REMAINS
HIGH WITH STRENGTH OF WEDGE...TIMING OF PRECIP...AND RESULTANT
DIABATIC EFFECTS TO SFC TEMPS ON SUNDAY. DESPITE THE
DISCREPANCIES...THERE IS A TREND TO A SLIGHTLY WEAKER PARENT HIGH
AND MAY SUGGEST LESS OF A MIXED P-TYPE SITUATION. PROGGED THERMAL
PROFILES AND SFC WETBULB TEMPS LOOK A BIT LESS SUPPORTIVE OF
WINTRY CONCERNS FOR THE NORTHEAST FARTHER WITHIN THE WEDGE AS
WELL...THOUGH HAVE KEPT SOME MENTION OF SLIGHT CHANCE SNOW IN THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS EARLY SUNDAY...THEN POSSIBLY A BRIEF RAIN TO
SNOW TRANSITION IN FAR NORTH GA LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS LOW
PUSHES NORTHEAST OF THE AREA AND ATTENDANT COLD FRONT SWINGS
SOUTHEAST. GFS IS LESS PROGRESSIVE NOW AND DOES NOT HAVE FROPA
UNTIL LATER MONDAY. NEEDLESS TO SAY ADJUSTMENTS TO FORECAST ARE
LIKELY UNTIL MORE CONSENSUS IS REACHED. AT LEAST WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS ARE A GOOD BET AND PROGGED QPF BRINGS CLOSE TO AN INCH OF
TOTAL RAINFALL IN NORTH AND HALF INCH FOR CENTRAL GA.

BAKER

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
/ISSUED AT 428 AM EST WED JAN 28 2015/
RELATIVE HUMIDITY DROPPING BELOW 25 PERCENT FOR SEVERAL HOURS ACROSS
THE NORTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER FUELS ARE STILL WET AND MAY
NOT DRY ENOUGH BY THEN. SO AT THIS TIME...NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS
ARE EXPECTED BUT WILL BE MONITORED CLOSELY AFTER MORNING TRENDS.

A LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE RH VALUES FOR THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AND NO FIRE DANGER CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED THEN.

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z UPDATE...

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREDOMINATE THROUGH THIS FORECAST
PERIOD. WILL SEE INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS THROUGH 12Z THEN INCREASING
MID-LEVEL CLOUDS AFTER 12Z. CEILINGS 9-12KFT BY 12-15Z AND 6-9KFT
AFTER 18Z. WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY LIGHT...6KTS OR LESS...AND QUITE
VARIABLE IN DIRECTION THROUGH 12Z...THEN INCREASE TO 6-10KT BY 15-
18Z FROM THE SOUTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...18Z UPDATE...

HIGH CONFIDENCE MOST ELEMENTS...ONLY MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ON WIND
DIRECTIONS THROUGH 12Z.

20

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          52  30  54  36 /   0   5  10  20
ATLANTA         52  33  56  37 /   0   5  10  20
BLAIRSVILLE     49  29  49  32 /   0   5  20  30
CARTERSVILLE    51  31  55  35 /   0   5  20  20
COLUMBUS        55  33  61  41 /   0   0   5  20
GAINESVILLE     52  31  53  36 /   0   5  10  20
MACON           54  31  59  40 /   0   0   5  20
ROME            52  31  56  35 /   0   5  20  20
PEACHTREE CITY  53  31  57  37 /   0   5  10  20
VIDALIA         53  31  62  45 /   0   5   5  20

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...39
LONG TERM....BAKER
AVIATION...39



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