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Area Forecast Discussion

890
FXUS62 KFFC 140845
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
445 AM EDT SUN SEP 14 2014


.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT AS FAR AS OVERALL PATTERN
GOES.  NAM/SREF MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH COLD AIR DAMMING TODAY...AND
WHILE THERE ARE SOME DISCREPANCIES ECMWF/GFS/NAM ALL IN PRETTY GOOD
AGREEMENT AS FAR AS THE SURFACE FRONT PUSHING INTO PORTIONS OF NORTH
AND CENTRAL GEORGIA BY THE END OF THE DAY MONDAY.  IN THE NEAR
TERM...LOW CLOUDS DEVELOPING OVER PARTS OF NORTH GA AND EXPECT LOW
CLOUDS AT MOST AREAS THIS MORNING.  LINGERING LOW CLOUDS WILL
INHIBIT THUNDER DEVELOPMENT...THE QUESTION IS WHERE WILL THE
THUNDER/NO THUNDER LINE END UP...ESPECIALLY WITH SURFACE FRONT ALONG
PORTIONS OF SOUTH GA ACTING AS A FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
AND WITH PWATS GREATER THAN 2 INCHES ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF
FORECAST AREA CANNOT RULE OUT LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WITH ANY OF THE
STRONGER STORMS...CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SEVERE STORM AS WELL
AS MLCAPES INCREASE TO NEAR 2500 J/KG OVER CENTRAL GA THIS
AFTERNOON...AND HAVE LIKELY POPS FOR SAME AREA TRENDING TO CHANCE IN
OVERNIGHT BASED ON HI-RES SOLUTIONS. GOOD MOISTURE REMAINS ACROSS
THE AREA MONDAY WITH PWATS REMAINING ABOVE 1.5 INCHES THE ENTIRE
AREA AND WITH THE FRONT APPROACHING WILL CONTINUE CHANCE POPS...
WITH BEST CHANCES IN THE AFTERNOON.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT UPON HOW LONG THE LOW CLOUDS
LINGER THIS MORNING AND HAVE TAKEN A BLEND OF MODELS
GUIDANCE...STAYING CLOSE OR JUST BELOW OVER THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF
FORECAST AREA AND TRENDING TO A MAV/MET MIX OVER WEST GA.

ATWELL


.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST STARTS OUT WITH THE FRONT MENTIONED IN THE
SHORT TERM POSITIONED OVER CENTRAL GEORGIA. A SECOND FRONT
APPROACHES NORTH GA FROM THE TN VALLEY TUE MORNING TO HELP
REINFORCE THE WEAKENING FIRST FRONT. THESE TWO FRONT MOVE INTO
SOUTH GA/NORTH FL BY WED MORNING AS A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
BUILDS IN BEHIND THEM FROM THE EASTERN GREAT LAKE STATES. A BIT
DRIER AIRMASS MOVES IN OVER N GA WED/THU BUT BOTH THE GFS AND
ECMWF HOW MOISTURE LINGERING OVER EASTERN AND SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF
THE STATE THROUGH DAY 7. MODEL PWS STAY REALLY SLACK OFF BY WED
WITH 1.5 TO 2 INCH VALUES MON AND TUE TO LESS THAN AN INCH BY 00Z
WED. THESE VALUES ARE RIGHT IN LINE WITH THE DRIER AIR MOVING IN
FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. HAVE DECIDED TO LOWER POPS TO SLIGHT
TO CHANCE ON WED...WITH SLIGHT TO NOTHING THU THROUGH SAT. MODELS
ALSO CONTINUE TO INDICATE COOLER TEMPS ARE IN STORE FOR THE
STATE...ESPECIALLY WITH THE COOLER DRIER AIR MASS MOVING IN. BY
THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK WE COULD BE BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS.

01


&&

.AVIATION...
06Z UPDATE...
VFR CONDITIONS AT MOST STATIONS...EXCEPT LIFR AT AHN...AND EXPECT
MOST STATIONS TO GO DOWN TO AT LATEST IFR FOR A PERIOD WITH LIFR
STAYING IN AHN UNTIL LATE MORNING. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND
VARIABLE...MAINLY FROM THE EAST TO NORTHEAST THIS
MORNING...INCREASING TO 5-7KTS BY AFTERNOON. LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...06Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ON CIGS.
MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE WINDS...WEATHER AND VISIBILITY.

ATWELL

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          79  67  83  67 /  40  30  50  50
ATLANTA         82  69  83  70 /  40  20  50  40
BLAIRSVILLE     74  61  79  63 /  30  20  30  40
CARTERSVILLE    82  67  83  68 /  30  20  40  40
COLUMBUS        87  72  87  72 /  60  50  50  50
GAINESVILLE     75  66  80  68 /  40  30  50  40
MACON           85  70  86  70 /  60  50  50  50
ROME            82  67  84  67 /  20  20  40  40
PEACHTREE CITY  84  69  84  67 /  50  30  50  40
VIDALIA         88  71  88  71 /  50  40  50  40

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ATWELL
LONG TERM....01
AVIATION...ATWELL





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