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Area Forecast Discussion

791
FXUS62 KFFC 030514 AAC
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
114 AM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 937 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2015/

UPDATE...
DIURNAL CONVECTION HAS WANED AND SHOULD ALLOW FOR PARTLY CLOUDY TO
MOSTLY CLEAR NIGHT WITH SOME LINGERING MID LEVEL CLOUDS AND
CIRRUS. HAVE ADJUSTED A BIT HIGHER POPS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH GA
TOMORROW BASED ON RECENT GUIDANCE INDICATING A WEAK DISTURBANCE
FROM THE NW INFLUENCING THE AREA AS THE RIDGE BREAKS DOWN. SOME
HI-RES SOLUTIONS ALSO SHOW BETTER COVERAGE OF CONVECTION THAN
RECENT DAYS. OTHERWISE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO TRENDS TONIGHT
AND INCLUDED SOME PATCHY FOG MENTION PRIOR TO SUNRISE GIVEN
PROGGED DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS AND CALM WINDS. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
FOLLOWS...

BAKER

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 816 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2015/

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
CURRENT RADAR LOOP SHOWS SOME SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS SOUTH AND CENTRAL GA AS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SPINS OVER
SOUTHEAST GA. WE CURRENTLY HAVE JUST A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS OUR SERN
CORNER OF THE CWA BUT THE THUNDERSTORMS ARE STAYING CLOSE TO THE
CENTER OF LOW PRESSURE. THERE IS STILL A DECENT AMOUNT OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE IN PLACE BUT OVERALL INSTABILITY STILL LOOKS TO BE LACKING.
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS STEADILY CENTERED OVER CENTRAL FL BUT
IT WILL WEAKEN THROUGH THE SHORT TERM AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TAKES
ITS PLACE BY FRI MORNING. ALL IN ALL HAVE INCREASED POPS THU ACROSS
THE AREA WITH MOISTURE INCREASING AND THE RIDGE WEAKENING. HIGH
TEMPS EXPECTED TO BE RIGHT AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS THU
WITH LOWS IN THE 60S AND 70S.

01

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE LONG TERM. PREVIOUS LONG TERM DISCUSSION
FOLLOWS...

17

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
/ISSUED 342 AM EDT WED SEP 2 2015/
THE EXTENDED WILL BRING UNSETTLED WEATHER BACK TO THE
AREA...ESPECIALLY BY THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY WILL BE
QUITE WARM WITH TEMPERATURES RUNNING A FEW DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE.
WHILE THERE WILL BE THE CHANCE FOR WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY AFTERNOON...RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE IN
EARNEST ON SATURDAY IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE BACK DOOR FRONT PUSHING
IN FROM THE EAST. THE CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE HIGHER ON
SATURDAY AHEAD OF THE WEDGE FRONT WHERE HIGHER INSTABILITIES WILL
RESIDE. SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL LINGER FOR SUNDAY...BUT ANY
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE MORE ISOLATED WITH THE COOLER AND MORE
STABLE AIRMASS MORE ENTRENCHED INTO THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER FOR MUCH OF THE AREA ON SATURDAY AND AREA
WIDE ON SUNDAY WITH EASTERLY WINDS AND MORE CLOUD COVER.

EARLY NEXT WEEK AN UPPER LOW IS FORECAST TO CUT OFF AND LINGER OVER
THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. FOR THIS REASON HAVE MAINTAINED CHANCE POPS
DURING THIS TIME FRAME. TEMPERATURES WILL BE HELD INTO THE LOW TO
MID 80S FOR DAYTIME HIGHS.

RW

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z UPDATE...
VFR CONDITIONS THRU PERIOD. PATCHY MVFR FOG 08-12Z.
VARYING HIGH CLOUDS WITH 4500-10000 SCT CLOUDS AND SOME
5000-7000 BKN CEILINGS DURING THE DAY. PRECIP CHANCES INCREASE
AFTER 18Z SO CONTINUING WITH PROB30 FOR -SHRA FOR NOW. CALM WINDS
BECOMING WNW LESS THAN 10 KTS.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...06Z UPDATE...
LOW CONFIDENCE FOR ANY LOWER CEILINGS.
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE FOR ANY IMPACTS FROM SHOWERS OR STORMS.
HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR VSBYS AND WINDS.

BDL

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          91  71  90  70 /  20  20  30  20
ATLANTA         90  73  90  71 /  30  20  30  20
BLAIRSVILLE     85  64  85  65 /  40  20  40  20
CARTERSVILLE    90  68  91  69 /  30  20  30  20
COLUMBUS        91  73  91  73 /  30  20  30  20
GAINESVILLE     89  71  88  70 /  30  20  40  20
MACON           90  72  92  71 /  30  20  30  20
ROME            91  69  91  69 /  30  20  20  20
PEACHTREE CITY  90  70  90  69 /  30  20  30  20
VIDALIA         91  73  93  72 /  30  20  30  20

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...BDL



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