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Area Forecast Discussion

203
FXUS62 KFFC 250837
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
337 AM EST TUE NOV 25 2014



.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
UPPER TROUGH FINALLY STARTING TO KICK EAST OUT OF THE CENTRAL U.S.
TODAY AS A FAIRLY STRONG SHORT WAVE BOTTOMS OUT OVER THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS AND BEGINS LIFTING INTO THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. TROUGH/SHORT
WAVE FAR ENOUGH SOUTH THAT THE MAIN SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS OVER THE
GULF OF MEXICO AND LIFTS ACROSS THE NORTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA
TONIGHT...RAPIDLY INTENSIFYING AND LIFTING NORTHEAST AS IT MOVES
ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN COASTAL REGION. THIS WILL SPREAD
PRECIPITATION BACK NORTH INTO THE AREA LATER TODAY AND THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT...RAPIDLY MOVING OUT EARLY WEDNESDAY. INSTABILITY MARGINAL
TODAY INTO THE EVENING ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDER...BUT SHOULD NOT BE SUFFICIENT WITH A LACK OF STRONG SHEAR
FOR ANY SEVERE THREAT. LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY...AS THE
PRECIPITATION BEGINS SHIFTING EAST...THERE MAY SOME LIMITED CHANCE
OF A BRIEF WINTRY MIX IN THE NORTH GEORGIA MOUNTAINS...HOWEVER
SURFACE TEMPERATURES ABOVE FREEZING ALONG WITH WARM AND WET GROUND
CONDITIONS INDICATE THAT THE POTENTIAL FOR ANY ACCUMULATION IS
MINIMAL.


20


.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
LONG TERM BEGINS WITH A CLIPPER SYSTEM MOVING RAPIDLY THROUGH THE
OH VALLEY. MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT WITH THIS SYSTEM IN SOME
FORM FOR PAST SEVERAL MODEL RUNS. QUESTION REMAINS HOW MUCH
MOISTURE WILL ACCOMPANY THIS SHORT WAVE INTO GA. LOOKS LIKE ONLY
THE EXTREME NORTH SHOULD BE AFFECTED. FOR NOW HAVE ONLY INCLUDED
SLIGHT CHANCE THURSDAY NIGHT FOR A RAIN/SNOW MIX FOR THE FAR NORTH
AND NO ACCUMULATION. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS FEATURE ON
LATER SHIFTS. OTHERWISE NORTHWEST FLOW BECOMING MORE ZONAL TOWARD
THE END OF THE PERIOD. HAVE KEPT THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM
DRY. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SINKS INTO THE TN/KY AREA ON MONDAY BUT
MODELS WANT TO KEEP THE MOISTURE NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA.


41


&&


AVIATION...
00Z UPDATE...
FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVING SLOWLY EAST THROUGH THE STATE BRINGING
DRIER AIR INTO NW GA. THIS FRONT WILL BE SLOW TO EXIT THE STATE
AND WILL SEE RAIN MOVE BACK IN ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT.FOR NOW WILL SEE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT
WITH INCREASING CLOUDS AN SHOWERS ACROSS THE CSG AND MCN TAF SITES
TUESDAY AFTERNOON. RAIN WILL MOVE NORTHWARD TUESDAY NIGHT MOVING
INTO THE ATL AREA TAF SITES AFTER 00Z TUES. CEILINGS WILL LOWER
INTO THE MVFR RANGE AFTER 00S TUES AS WELL. NOT EXPECTING ANY
RESTRICTIONS TO VSBSY WINDS WILL STAY OUT OF THE WEST TO NORTHWEST
AT 10KT OR LESS.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...00Z UPDATE...
CONFIDENCE MEDIUM ON ALL ELEMENTS.

01

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          59  40  52  35 /  40  90  60   5
ATLANTA         58  39  53  37 /  40  70  40   5
BLAIRSVILLE     57  35  50  32 /  20  80  50  20
CARTERSVILLE    57  37  52  34 /  20  70  30   5
COLUMBUS        58  40  56  38 /  60  80  30   0
GAINESVILLE     58  39  52  36 /  30  80  50   5
MACON           58  41  56  36 /  80  90  50   0
ROME            57  36  52  34 /  20  50  20  10
PEACHTREE CITY  58  37  54  34 /  40  80  40   0
VIDALIA         61  45  55  39 /  80  90  60   5

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...20
LONG TERM....41
AVIATION...20



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