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Area Forecast Discussion

022
FXUS62 KFFC 020126 AAB
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
926 PM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.UPDATE...
REMAINING SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER CENTRAL GA EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE
THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO. NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST. FORECAST
LOW TEMPERATURES RUNNING 2-4 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

BDL

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 715 PM EDT MON SEP 1 2014/

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
THE COMBINATION OF WEAK RIDGING AND MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA WILL
CONTINUE TO SUPPORT DIURNAL CONVECTION THROUGH THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD. HAVE GONE WITH CHANCE POPS FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND
TUESDAY...DIMINISHING AFTER 10 PM. MLCAPES CONTINUE TO BE
DECENT...WITH HIGHEST VALUES IN THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
CWA...AND ALTHOUGH SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT NECESSARILY ANTICIPATED
TODAY OR TUESDAY...AN ISOLATED STORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT. STORMS
TUESDAY WILL LIKELY FIRE ALONG OLD BOUNDARIES FROM CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
THIS AFTERNOON.

ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY AND INTO MID
WEEK. HAVE GENERALLY GONE WITH A BLEND OF MODEL GUIDANCE WITH
VIRTUALLY THE ENTIRE AREA IN THE LOW TO MID 90S IN THE AFTERNOON.

31

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
EAST-WEST ORIENTED UPPER RIDGE SHOULD REMAIN FIRMLY IN PLACE
ACROSS SOUTHERN STATES THRU SATURDAY. EVEN BY THE WEEKEND...NO
INDICATION OF STRONG PATTERN SHIFT OR AIRMASS CHANGE IN 12Z MODEL
GUIDANCE. MED RANGE MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT HEIGHT AND MOISTURE
FIELDS WHICH GET ABOUT AS CLOSE AS YOU CAN POSSIBLY GET TO MEDIAN
CONDITIONS FOR THE FIRST OF SEPTEMBER. WARM DAYS AND NIGHTS WITH
APPROX 30PCT COVERAGE OF AFTERNOON/EVENING SHRA/TSRA...PERHAPS A
BIT HIGHER COVERAGE BASED ON MODEL MEAN RH FIELDS.

NOT SEEING ANY HIGH IMPACT...TROPICAL SYSTEMS OR PATTERN CHANGING
FEATURES IN MODEL FORECASTS. 12Z GFS DOES TAKE A TURN FOR A WARMER
PATTERN NEXT WEEK WITH UPPER HIGH BUILDING OVER THE SOUTHEAST
CONUS...BUT THIS SOLUTION NOT CONSISTENT WITH PREV RUNS OR 12Z
ECMWF. REFRESHED TEMPS BASED ON 30DAY BIAS CORRECTED GRIDDED
BLENDED GUIDANCE AND LATEST HPC GUIDANCE. MOST OTHER FIELDS IN
GOOD SHAPE WITH ACCURATE DEPICTION OF DIURNAL CONVECTION IN POP
AND WX GRIDS.

SNELSON

PREV LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ISSUED 323 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014...
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MID-
WEEK. THE SURFACE HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO HOLD ON WEDNESDAY...BUT A
WEAK BOUNDARY MAY TRY AND SNEAK THROUGH A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE.
THE BOUNDARY MAY PROVIDE SOME FOCUS FOR DIURNAL CONVECTION
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...BUT IT SHOULD DIMINISH BY FRIDAY. A
SECOND FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAY IMPACT THE CWFA DURING THE WEEKEND.
MODELS HAVE SLOWED THE BOUNDARYS PROGRESSION DOWN.

OVERALL...NO REAL CHANGES NEEDED TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST. POPS WILL
MAINLY REMAIN DIURNAL IN NATURE. COVERAGE SHOULD INCREASE TOWARDS
THE END OF THE WEEK AS THE SURFACE HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE AND WINDS
TURN MORE SOUTHERLY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH
THE PERIOD...WITH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY BEING THE HOTTEST DAYS.

NLISTEMAA

&&

AVIATION...
00Z UPDATE...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE THIS EVENING.
OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH PATCHY MVFR VSBYS DUE TO
FOG POSSIBLE EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. SURFACE WINDS LIGHT AND
VARIABLE OR CALM FOR THE OVERNIGHT.
POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN ON TUESDAY.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...00Z UPDATE...
LOW CONFIDENCE FOR FURTHER IMPACTS OF THUNDERSTORMS EARLY THIS EVENING.
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE FOR VSBYS DURING THE EARLY MORNING.
HIGH CONFIDENCE ALL OTHER ELEMENTS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT.

BDL

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          70  95  70  95 /  20  40  30  30
ATLANTA         73  93  73  90 /  30  40  20  30
BLAIRSVILLE     65  88  66  86 /  20  40  30  40
CARTERSVILLE    70  94  68  91 /  30  40  20  30
COLUMBUS        74  96  74  92 /  30  40  20  40
GAINESVILLE     71  92  71  91 /  20  40  30  40
MACON           71  95  71  94 /  30  40  20  40
ROME            69  94  68  91 /  30  40  20  30
PEACHTREE CITY  69  92  68  91 /  30  40  20  30
VIDALIA         74  95  74  93 /  30  40  30  30

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BDL






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