« Back
NWS Peachtree City, Ga » Text Product » FFC Area Forecast Discussion


Printer-friendly Version     Surrounding:  BMX  MRX  FFC  CAE  TAE  
Current Version              Previous Versions:   1  2  3  4  5  6  7  8  9  

Area Forecast Discussion

770
FXUS62 KFFC 310118 AAB
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
918 PM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

.UPDATE...
CURRENT SHORT TERM FORECAST GRIDS REMAIN ON TRACK...NO UPDATES ARE
PLANNED FOR THIS EVENING AT THIS TIME.

20

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 720 PM EDT THU OCT 30 2014/

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WHILE A DRY AND COOL AIRMASS HAS BEEN ADVECTING INTO THE CWA...THE
MAIN FORECAST CONCERN WILL BE WITH AN UNSEASONABLY POTENT UPPER
TROUGH PROGGED TO QUICKLY DIG SOUTHWARD AND CUTOFF ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. GUIDANCE IS IN
SOMEWHAT DECENT AGREEMENT WITH THIS SYSTEM THOUGH HAVE SOME
DISCREPANCIES IN EXTENT OF ENHANCED MOISTURE AND INTENSITY OF THE
LOW. BASED ON LOW TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE AND PROGGED OMEGA...THERE
WILL BE CHANCES FIRST FOR A ROUND OF SHOWERS FRIDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS
MUCH OF NORTH GEORGIA...THEN LIKELY SEE A DRY SLOT WRAP IN FROM THE
SOUTHWEST AROUND THE UPPER LOW BEFORE THE WRAP-AROUND MOISTURE IN
THE COLD CORE BRINGS SNOW SHOWER POTENTIAL MAINLY TO FAR NORTHEAST
AFTER MIDNIGHT AND INTO SATURDAY. THERMAL PROFILES NEAR BRASSTOWN
BALD ARE DEFINITELY COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW AND SHOW SOME DECENT LOW
LEVEL LAPSE RATES MAINLY AFTER 03-06Z SATURDAY. FORECAST 850MB TEMPS
EVEN GET AS LOW AS -8 C BASED ON THE GFS FOR 12Z SATURDAY. AMOUNTS
ARE NOT VERY CLEAR THOUGH THE MAJORITY OF MODEL SOLUTIONS POINT AT
GENERALLY IN THE 0.20-0.50 INCH RANGE FOR THE FAR NORTHEAST. WPC
GUIDANCE WAS A BIT HIGHER AND HAD SOME VALUES OVER ONE INCH BUT
THINK THIS IS ON THE HIGH SIDE AND SHOULD GENERALLY BE LIGHT
ACCUMULATIONS FROM A QUARTER TO HALF INCH ACROSS THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS OF FANNIN...UNION... TOWNS...LUMPKIN...AND WHITE COUNTIES
WITH THE BEST CHANCE OCCURRING IN THE 09-15Z PERIOD SATURDAY
MORNING. GIVEN THE TEMPS MENTIONED BELOW...THE LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS
MAY STICK TO GRASSY AREAS AND ELEVATED SURFACES...THOUGH MAY
STRUGGLE TO STICK TO ROADWAYS GIVEN SOME HIGHER SOIL TEMPS. STILL
SOME LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE COUPLED WITH GOOD VORTICITY SO
CANNOT RULE OUT SOME LINGERING FLURRIES EVEN SATURDAY AFTERNOON IN
THE NORTHEAST AS WELL. GRADIENT WINDS WILL BE QUITE STRONG SATURDAY
AS WELL AND MAY APPROACH WIND ADVISORY LEVELS SO WILL ASSESS AS THE
PERIOD GETS CLOSER FOR POSSIBLE ISSUANCE.

FOR TEMPS...QUITE AN ABNORMALLY COLD AND BLUSTERY FORECAST ON TAP AS
GUIDANCE TRENDING EVEN A BIT COOLER THAN BEFORE FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY. MANY AREAS FRIDAY NIGHT WILL DIP DOWN INTO THE MID 30S
WITH LOW 30S TO MID 20S FOR THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. HAVE THEREFORE
ISSUED A FREEZE WATCH FOR THE FAR NORTHEAST. WINDS SHOULD BE TOO
HIGH FOR FROST CONCERNS. SATURDAY WILL STRUGGLE TO GET INTO THE 50S
FOR MUCH OF THE AREA AND EVEN THE 40S FOR THE NORTHEAST. WIND CHILL
VALUES LOOK TO EVEN BE IN THE 30S FOR THE NE MTNS IN THE AFTERNOON.
DEFINITELY NOT YOUR TYPICAL START TO NOVEMBER.

BAKER

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL LOW IS OFF THE CAROLINA COAST BY THE BEGINNING OF THE
LONG TERM AND THUS ALL THE MOISTURE SHOULD BE EAST OF THE FORECAST
AREA. NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WILL ALLOW FOR
POTENTIALLY SOME OF THE COLDEST LOW TEMPERATURES OF THE SEASON
SUNDAY MORNING. DESPITE THIS...FORECAST DOES NOT BREAK ANY RECORD
TEMPERATURES SUNDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY WARMER
ON SUNDAY FOR HIGH TEMPS...HOWEVER WINDS WILL BE MUCH WEAKER THAN
SATURDAY SO IT WILL NOT BE AS BLUSTERY. UPPER RIDGE BUILDS IN FOR
THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK. MODELS DIVERGE BY LATE WEEK SO
CONFIDENCE DECREASES FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK WHEN PRECIP
IS EXPECTED TO RETURN.

11

AVIATION...
00Z UPDATE...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH PERIOD. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT
WITH MID-LEVEL CLOUDS INCREASING FROM THE NORTHWEST AFTER 12Z FRIDAY
AROUND 8-12KFT...BECOMING BROKEN IN COVERAGE BETWEEN 18Z AND 00Z
FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST. MVFR CEILINGS WILL SPREAD INTO THE
FORECAST AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST AROUND 00Z WITH ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS. NORTHWEST WINDS 7 KTS OR LESS THROUGH 14Z...
INCREASING TO 8-12KT W/ GUSTS 17-20KT AFTER 18Z.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...00Z UPDATE...
HIGH ON ALL ELEMENTS.

20

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          41  67  37  50 /   0  20  20  10
ATLANTA         45  66  36  51 /   5  20  20  10
BLAIRSVILLE     36  58  31  45 /  10  30  50  50
CARTERSVILLE    39  65  35  51 /   5  20  20  10
COLUMBUS        45  71  39  56 /   0   5  10  10
GAINESVILLE     45  61  36  49 /   5  20  20  20
MACON           41  70  38  58 /   0   5  10  10
ROME            40  65  35  52 /  10  20  20  20
PEACHTREE CITY  39  68  36  53 /   5  10  10  10
VIDALIA         50  72  42  58 /   0   0  10  10

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR
THE FOLLOWING ZONES: DAWSON...FANNIN...GILMER...LUMPKIN...
MURRAY...PICKENS...TOWNS...UNION...WHITE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...20
LONG TERM....NLISTEMAA
AVIATION...20





USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.