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Area Forecast Discussion

724
FXUS62 KFFC 160138
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
938 PM EDT TUE APR 15 2014

.UPDATE...
I AM MAKING SOME...MOSTLY...MINOR TWEAKS TO THE OVERNIGHT FORECAST
GRIDS. NO FUNDAMENTAL SHIFTS IN PHILOSOPHY...STILL COLD AND BREEZY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREDOMINATE. WINDS ARE EDGING DOWN ALREADY AND
WE WILL BE ABLE TO ALLOW THE WIND ADVISORY TO LAPSE AT 10 PM. PATCH
OF CIRRUS STREAMING NORTHEAST FROM THE GULF SO I BUMPED SKY COVER UP
A BIT OVER THE FAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES. AT THIS TIME IT DOES NOT APPEAR
THAT THESE CLOUDS WILL ADVANCE TOO FAR NORTH INTO THE FORECAST AREA.
I HAVE REMOVED THE PATCHY FROST WORDING FROM ALL BUT THE HIGHER
ELEVATION ZONES WHERE WINDS MAY DROP ENOUGH IN SHELTERED VALLEYS AND
MOIST SOILS MAY PROVIDE ENOUGH NEAR SURFACE MOISTURE FOR A TOUCH HERE
AND THERE. NO CHANGES PLANNED BEYOND TONIGHT.

20

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 745 PM EDT TUE APR 15 2014/

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
CURRENT SATELLITE LOOP SHOWS LARGE MOISTURE PLUME EXTENDING FROM
EASTERN CANADA...DOWN THE EASTERN SEABOARD...ACROSS FL...AND OUT
ACROSS THE GULF. THIS LARGE PLUME IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT
THAT SWEEPS THROUGH THE AREA THIS MORNING AND BROUGHT THE SHOWERS TO
THE AREA OVER THE PAST 2 DAYS. THE SHOWERS HAVE MOVED EAST OF THE
AREA AND HIGH PRESSURE IS BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST. THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT HAS TIGHTENED UP ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AND AS A RESULT WE
ARE SEEING WINDS OUT OF THE NW IN THE 15-20KT RANGE GUSTING 30 TO
35KT. WE ARE EXPECTING THESE WINDS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING
HOURS O WILL CONTINUE THE WIND ADVISORY THROUGH 9PM. THESE STRONG
WINDS ARE ALSO USHERING IN SOME COLD AIR AND WE SHOULD SEE TEMPS
INTO THE LOWER 30S ACROSS MOST OF NORTH AND CENTRAL GA. HAVE DECIDED
TO ALSO KEEP THE FREEZE WARNING GOING. TEMPS WILL REBOUND SLIGHTLY
WED WITH HIGHS EXPECTED IN THE 50S AND 60S BUT WED NIGHT LOWS ARE
EXPECTED TO DIP BACK DOWN INTO THE 30S. TEMPS WED NIGHT SHOULD STAY
ABOVE FREEZING...BUT WILL HAVE TO MONITOR THIS CLOSELY ESPECIALLY
ACROSS EXTREME NORTH GA.

01

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LONG TERM STARTS OUT MOSTLY ZONAL ALOFT AND DRY...CHANGING TO A
SOUTHWEST FLOW DURING THURSDAY. THE NEXT SOUTHERN STREAM SHORT
WAVE CROSSES THE NORTHERN GULF FRIDAY/SATURDAY WHICH WOULD GIVE US
A CHANCE OF SHOWERS THEN. GFS/ECMWF STILL HAVING PROBLEMS WITH
TIMING AND LOCATION OF THIS WAVE WITH THE GFS MORE PROGRESSIVE.
BRIEF PERIOD OF RIDGING WITH NEXT WAVE COMING INTO THE MS VALLEY
BY MONDAY. HAVE MADE NO CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED DUE TO THE
UNCERTAINTY INVOLVED WITH THESE SYSTEMS. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION IS
INCLUDED BELOW.

41

LONG TERM /442 AM EDT TUE APR 15 2014/...

LONG RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A COOL
DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING OVER THE ATLANTIC COASTAL STATES
WEDNESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY MORNING. THIS WILL RESULT IN A PSEUDO
CAD WEDGE SETTING UP ACROSS NORTH AND EAST CENTRAL GA THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY. A MOIST SOUTHERLY MID LEVEL FLOW WILL OVERRUN THE COOL
EASTERLY SURFACE WINDS TO BEGIN INCREASING CLOUDS ON THURSDAY...
AND THEN BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS TO THE AREA THURSDAY
NIGHT AND FRIDAY. THE CAD WEDGE BEGINS TO ERODE FRIDAY AFTERNOON
AS AN UPPER DISTURBANCE AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT APPROACH FROM
THE NORTHWEST... THEN PUSH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY NIGHT.
LACK OF INSTABILITIES WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT ONLY SHOWERS AT
THIS TIME. ALTHOUGH STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY ON TIMING... AS THE
GFS IS SLIGHTLY FASTER THEN THE ECMWF... THE OVERALL TREND SUGGEST
CLEARING CONDITIONS ON SATURDAY... AS COOL DRY HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS OVER THE AREA ON SATURDAY... AND PERSISTS THROUGH SUNDAY.
LONG RANGE MODELS ARE SHOWING ANOTHER PSEUDO CAD WEDGE POSSIBLY BEING
OVERRUN BY AN UPPER DISTURBANCE ON MONDAY. THIS WARRANTS A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS ON MONDAY.

39

AVIATION...
00Z UPDATE...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
THROUGH THIS FORECAST PERIOD. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS...12-20KT WITH
FREQUENT GUSTS 18-30KT...WILL DIMINISH SOME...6-10KT WITH OCCASIONAL
GUSTS 12-18KT...AND SHIFT TO THE NORTHEAST BY 07-09Z BEFORE BECOMING
EAST 8-12KT WITH GUSTS 14-20KT BY 15Z.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...00Z UPDATE...
HIGH.

20

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          33  60  37  65 /   0   0   0  10
ATLANTA         32  58  41  64 /   0   0   0  10
BLAIRSVILLE     27  58  33  63 /   0   0   5  10
CARTERSVILLE    29  61  36  65 /   0   0   5  10
COLUMBUS        35  64  41  69 /   0   0   0  10
GAINESVILLE     33  58  39  62 /   0   0   0  10
MACON           34  64  38  68 /   0   0   0  10
ROME            29  62  35  67 /   0   0   5  10
PEACHTREE CITY  29  61  36  66 /   0   0   0  10
VIDALIA         40  65  43  71 /   5   0   0  10

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: BALDWIN...BANKS...BARROW...BARTOW...BIBB...BLECKLEY...
BUTTS...CARROLL...CATOOSA...CHATTAHOOCHEE...CHATTOOGA...
CHEROKEE...CLARKE...CLAYTON...COBB...COWETA...CRAWFORD...CRISP...
DADE...DAWSON...DEKALB...DODGE...DOOLY...DOUGLAS...EMANUEL...
FANNIN...FAYETTE...FLOYD...FORSYTH...GILMER...GLASCOCK...
GORDON...GREENE...GWINNETT...HALL...HANCOCK...HARALSON...
HARRIS...HEARD...HENRY...HOUSTON...JACKSON...JASPER...
JEFFERSON...JOHNSON...JONES...LAMAR...LAURENS...LUMPKIN...
MACON...MADISON...MARION...MERIWETHER...MONROE...MONTGOMERY...
MORGAN...MURRAY...MUSCOGEE...NEWTON...NORTH FULTON...OCONEE...
OGLETHORPE...PAULDING...PEACH...PICKENS...PIKE...POLK...
PULASKI...PUTNAM...ROCKDALE...SCHLEY...SOUTH FULTON...SPALDING...
STEWART...SUMTER...TALBOT...TALIAFERRO...TAYLOR...TELFAIR...
TOOMBS...TOWNS...TREUTLEN...TROUP...TWIGGS...UNION...UPSON...
WALKER...WALTON...WARREN...WASHINGTON...WEBSTER...WHEELER...
WHITE...WHITFIELD...WILCOX...WILKES...WILKINSON.

FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
BALDWIN...BANKS...BARROW...BARTOW...BIBB...BUTTS...CARROLL...
CATOOSA...CHATTOOGA...CHEROKEE...CLARKE...CLAYTON...COBB...
COWETA...CRAWFORD...DADE...DAWSON...DEKALB...DOUGLAS...FANNIN...
FAYETTE...FLOYD...FORSYTH...GILMER...GORDON...GREENE...
GWINNETT...HALL...HANCOCK...HARALSON...HARRIS...HEARD...HENRY...
JACKSON...JASPER...JONES...LAMAR...LUMPKIN...MADISON...
MERIWETHER...MONROE...MORGAN...MURRAY...NEWTON...NORTH FULTON...
OCONEE...OGLETHORPE...PAULDING...PEACH...PICKENS...PIKE...POLK...
PUTNAM...ROCKDALE...SOUTH FULTON...SPALDING...TALBOT...
TALIAFERRO...TAYLOR...TOWNS...TROUP...UNION...UPSON...WALKER...
WALTON...WARREN...WHITE...WHITFIELD...WILKES.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...20
LONG TERM....17
AVIATION...20





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