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Area Forecast Discussion

121
FXUS62 KFFC 100020
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
720 PM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED /

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM WEDNESDAY FOR SNOW.
SNOW SHOWERS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH THROUGH TONIGHT AS THE UPPER TROUGH
AND DEEPER MOISTURE MOVE AWAY. AS THE TEMPERATURES GET COLDER TONIGHT
..ROADS WILL BECOME A PROBLEM AT LEAST FOR SOME AREAS OVER N GA.

A DECENT WEATHER DAY LOOKS TO BE IN STORE FOR WEDNESDAY EXCEPT
TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL AND WINDS WILL KICK UP AGAIN
ACROSS THE AREA.

MODELS INDICATING A SURGE OF MOISTURE IN THE NW FLOW FOR N GA WEDNESDAY
NIGHT THAT COULD SPIT FLURRIES OR MAYBE EVEN SNOW SHWRS WHEN IT PASSES.
FOR NOW WILL KEEP THINGS DRY BUT THIS WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED FOR
SNOW POTENTIAL WITH THE NEXT MODEL RUN.

A RATHER WINDY PERIOD LOOKS TO CONTINUE...AT LEAST ENOUGH FOR THE COLD
LOCATIONS OF THE NE MOUNTAINS AND THE WIND CHILL ADVISORY WILL BE
CONTINUED.

FORECAST LOW TEMPERATURES RUNNING 12-14 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL TONIGHT
AND AROUND 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WEDNESDAY NIGHT. FORECAST HIGH
TEMPERATURES RUNNING 15-20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR WEDNESDAY.

OVERALL CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM TO HIGH.

BDL

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
DEEP LONG WAVE TROF WILL DOMINATE THE DISCUSSION THROUGHOUT THE
EXTENDED PERIOD WHICH WILL INCLUDE TWO ARCTIC SURFACE RIDGE
INVASIONS. THE FIRST AND WEAKER OF THE TWO WILL COME IN ON
THURSDAY AS THE CENTER OF THE RIDGE QUICKLY SHIFTS OFF THE
CAROLINA COAST BY SATURDAY. OVERALL...TEMPS SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL THROUGH SATURDAY. THE NAM AND ECMWF ARE HINTING AT A
WEAK CLIPPER SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE BROAD TROF LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT...HOWEVER THE GFS HAS TRENDED DRIER. OVERALL...AM KEEPING
LOW END POPS WITH MOSTLY LIGHT RAIN ALTHOUGH CANT RULE OUT SOME
LIGHT WINTRY MIX IN THE NE MOUNTAINS IF IT OCCURS...ALTHOUGH POPS
ARE TRENDING DOWN IN THAT TIME PERIOD.  BY LATE SATURDAY...THE
LEADING EDGE OF THE MUCH STRONGER AND DEEPER ARCTIC HIGH SHIFTS
INTO THE REGION..WHICH LOOKS TO BRING SOME OF THE COLDEST TEMPS OF
THE SEASON INTO THE AREA ON SUNDAY.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING THAT A WINTRY EVENT
WILL UNFOLD ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES DURING THIS TIMEFRAME.
THE BASIS IS THE STRONG ARCTIC SURFACE RIDGE WHICH SLIDES INTO THE
OHIO VALLEY WHICH ALL OF THE EXTENDED MODELS AND EVEN THE
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ARE PROGGING. BOTH THE GFS...ECMWF AND THEIR
MEMBERS ARE PROGGING A STRONG CAD EVENT SETTING UP LATE SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY AS STRONG SHORT WAVE DIVES SOUTHEAST ON THE BACKSIDE
OF THE LONG WAVE TROF AND TAPPING A BIT OF GULF MOISTURE. THE
BIGGEST QUESTION AND LOWEST CONFIDENCE EXISTS IN DETERMINING ANY
PRECIPITATION TYPE AT THIS POINT WHICH COULD RANGE EVERYTHING FROM
AN ALL VERY COLD RAIN TO FREEZING RAIN TO SNOW AND SLEET...WHICH
ALL DEPENDS ON THE TIMING...DEPTH OF THE COLD AIR...AND THE WARM
NOSE. NONETHELESS. FOR NOW...LEFT EVERYTHING IN THE FORECAST AS A
RAIN OR SNOW. KEEP IN MIND THAT IT LIKELY WILL CHANGE AND IS SOMETHING
TO WATCH AS THE EVENT DRAWS NEARER.

30

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z UPDATE...
VERY LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE INTERMITTENLY AT MOST AREA TAF
SITES AT THIS HOUR BUT ANY REDUCTIONS TO VSBY OR CIGS HAVE BEEN
LIMITED. EXPECT MOSTLY VFR WITH OCCASIONAL MVFR THIS EVENING
GRADUALLY TRANSITIONING TO ALL MVFR OVERNIGHT. THESE CIGS SHOULD
RISE TO MVFR DURING THE MORNING HOURS ON WED AND THEN DISSIPATE
ENTIRELY BY AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE AN ISSUE WITH
GUSTS TO 25 KTS POSSIBLE.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...00Z UPDATE...
HIGH ON ALL ELEMENTS.

DEESE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          23  39  24  49 /  60  40   0   5
ATLANTA         23  37  27  50 /  60   5   0   5
BLAIRSVILLE     17  29  18  42 /  80  40   0   5
CARTERSVILLE    22  35  24  48 /  60  10   0   5
COLUMBUS        25  44  28  59 /  40   5   0   5
GAINESVILLE     22  34  24  45 /  60  30   0   5
MACON           25  44  26  56 /  60   5   0   5
ROME            22  35  23  47 /  70   5   0   5
PEACHTREE CITY  23  38  25  52 /  60   0   0   5
VIDALIA         29  45  29  57 /  20  10   0   5

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: BARTOW...CATOOSA...CHATTOOGA...CHEROKEE...
DADE...DAWSON...FANNIN...FLOYD...GILMER...GORDON...LUMPKIN...
MURRAY...PICKENS...TOWNS...UNION...WALKER...WHITE...WHITFIELD.

WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THURSDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: DAWSON...FANNIN...GILMER...LUMPKIN...MURRAY...PICKENS...
TOWNS...UNION...WHITE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DEESE
LONG TERM....01
AVIATION...DEESE



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