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Area Forecast Discussion

055
FXUS62 KFFC 291940
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
340 PM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014


.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
SHORT TERM MODELS CONSISTENT WITH INCREASING RAIN CHANCES THIS
WEEKEND AFTER A LONG...DRY WEEK. ANOMALOUSLY STRONG UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE CONTINUES TO REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN ATLANTIC
COASTLINE...BUT AN EASTWARD SHIFT IN THE RIDGE WILL EXPOSE THE
REGION TO PERTURBATIONS IN THE SYNOPTIC FLOW. FOR NOW...MODELS
CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE A GRADUAL INCREASE IN CLOUD COVERAGE AND
MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTHWEST SATURDAY AND UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE
EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE TENNESSEE AND OHIO VALLEYS LOOKS TO DAMPEN
SOMEWHAT AS IT TRACKS JUST NORTH OF THE STATE. THIS POSITIONING
SHOULD KEEP THE MAJORITY OF ANY ASSOCIATED ENERGY OUTSIDE THE CWA.
ANTICIPATE MUCH OF THE PRECIPITATION ACTIVITY TO BE DIURNALLY
DRIVEN AND OROGRAPHICALLY ENHANCED...WITH THE BEST CHANCES BETWEEN 1
AND 10 PM SATURDAY AFTERNOON. MODELS APPEAR TO CONTINUE THE TREND ON
BACKING OFF ON EXTENDED PERIODS OF WIDESPREAD RAINFALL...WITH
COVERAGE BEING SLIGHTLY MORE LIMITED. AS A RESULT...HAVE DROPPED
LIKELY WORDING WITH THE POPS...BUT HAVE CONTINUED WITH GOOD CHANCE
THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON. EXPECT HIGH PRECIPITATION EFFICIENCY
WITH ABNORMALLY HIGH PWS...AND ALTHOUGH QPF IS EXPECTED TO BE 0.5
INCHES OR LESS THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...LOCALLY HEAVIER
RAINFALL AMOUNTS CAN BE EXPECTED. MLCAPES LOOK TO BE MARGINAL...AND
DO NOT ANTICIPATE INTENSE STORM DEVELOPMENT.

HAVE GONE WITH A BLEND OF TEMPERATURES FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY
MORNING. WITH THE HIGH STILL IN PLACE...BUT WITH RAIN IN THE
FORECAST...TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMER THAN NORMAL SATURDAY...BUT
SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN TODAY.

LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE INTO THE EXTENDED PERIOD...AND
AN ADDITIONAL 0.5 TO 1 INCH OF RAIN CAN BE EXPECTED FROM SUNDAY TO
MONDAY.

31


.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NO CHANGES MADE TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST. MODELS IN A LITTLE
BETTER AGREEMENT AS THE LONG TERM PERIOD BEGINS WITH VORT MAX
LINGERING OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AS UPPER RIDGE HOLDS OVER THE
SOUTHERN PART OF THE STATE. THIS VORT MAX IS MORE STRUNG OUT
PROVIDING LITTLE LIFT ON THE ECMWF BUT MORE POTENT WITH DISTINCT
TROUGH NOTED ON LATEST GFS. REGARDLESS...PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
WILL BE HIGH...ON THE ORDER OF 1.8 TO 2.2 INCHES WHICH SHOULD BE
SUFFICIENT FOR LIKELY POPS TO THE NORTH WHERE SHORTWAVE ENERGY
RESIDES AND MID RANGE CHANCE TO THE SOUTH. THERE IS A DISTINCT
AREA OF MID LEVEL DRY AIR NOTED ON THE ECMWF WHICH COULD LEAD TO
REDUCED POPS FOR THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA DESPITE
AFOREMENTIONED ENERGY BUT WILL NEED A FEW MORE RUNS TO CONFIRM
BEFORE GETTING FULLY ONBOARD WITH THIS SOLUTION.

INTO EARLY AND MID WEEK...THE EURO IS DEFINITELY MORE AGGRESSIVE IN
BUILD MID AND UPPER RIDGE BACK OVER THE AREA AND LIMITING POPS.
FOR NOW HAVE GONE WITH A BLEND OF THIS DRIER SOLUTION AND THE
SLIGHTLY WETTER GFS WHICH SUPPRESSES RIDGE TO THE SOUTH WHILE
STRUNG OUT VORT MAX PROVIDES FOCUS FOR CONVECTION. THIS YIELDS
GENERALLY LOW TO MID RANGE CHANCE POPS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
EXTENDED PORTION. WITH UPPER RIDGE IN PLACE...SHOULD SEE SOME
INCREASE IN MAX TEMPS ALTHOUGH GUIDANCE NOT ESPECIALLY BULLISH ON
THIS ASPECT. WILL NEED TO MONITOR TO SEE IF THEY TREND UPWARD WITH
FUTURE RUNS BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE SOME MID 90S BY TUE
OR WED.

DEESE/01


&&


.AVIATION...
18Z UPDATE...
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS THIS AFTERNOON ARE
LIGHT...AND FLIRTING WITH DUE SOUTH...BUT OVERALL EXPECT SSE WINDS
INTO SATURDAY. WINDS SHOULD BE NEAR CALM OVERNIGHT BEFORE
INCREASING TO 5-8KT BY 16Z. SOME FEW TO SCT 6-7KFT CU WITH CIRRUS
WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING. OVERALL INCREASING CLOUD TREND TO
CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY. PROB30 -SHRA STILL LOOKS APPROPRIATE FOR
17-21Z SATURDAY WITH BKN050 CIGS.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...18Z UPDATE...
HIGH CONFIDENCE ON ALL ELEMENTS.

31

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          67  92  70  91 /  10  30  30  50
ATLANTA         72  90  72  88 /  20  40  40  50
BLAIRSVILLE     63  85  66  83 /  20  40  40  60
CARTERSVILLE    67  91  70  89 /  20  50  50  60
COLUMBUS        73  93  74  92 /  20  50  40  40
GAINESVILLE     69  89  71  87 /  20  40  40  60
MACON           69  94  71  92 /  20  30  30  40
ROME            66  91  70  90 /  20  50  40  60
PEACHTREE CITY  66  90  69  90 /  20  50  40  50
VIDALIA         72  94  73  92 /  10  30  20  40

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...31
LONG TERM....01
AVIATION...31





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