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Area Forecast Discussion

456
FXUS62 KFFC 241907
AFDFFC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
307 PM EDT SAT SEP 24 2016

.SHORT TERM /Tonight through Sunday Night/...
Surface analysis shows a surface low across the panhandle of Florida
with an upper low across southwest Georgia. High pressure dominates
across the north and central part of the state. A few showers have
developed across southwest Georgia, nearer to the low pressure
systems.

The low pressure centers across the panhandle should slowly meander
to the west, while the surface high to the north will slide east.
The chances for precip will still remain low tomorrow, with only
slight chance/low end chance possible. The best chances for precip
will be in the south, nearest the low centers, and in the mountains.

Min/Max temperatures will continue 8-10 degrees above normal through
the period. But, there is hope...(see extended)

NListemaa

.LONG TERM /Monday through Saturday/...
Only tweaks to the long term based on the latest guidance.

BDL

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
The extended period begins with high pressure continuing to be
anchored off the northeast coast with ridging down the east side
of the Appalachians and wedge into most of North and Central GA.
Best deep layer moisture profile looks to be within the wedge
itself affecting mainly North and East GA. Instability on the
other hand will be most prevalent for Central portions of the
area...especially with the heating of the day on Mon. All this
points to a nearly uniform pop distribution of low end chance for
most areas but best thunder chances to the south.

By late Mon afternoon and into the evening hours...will be
watching what should be the strongest frontal boundary we have
seen in this early fall season approach the area. Precipitable
water looks to increase to 1.75 inches across northern portions
and Cape values increase as well although GFS most unstable
remains less than 1000 j/kg for this event. Still though...with
relatively cool temps aloft...should see adequate lapse rates to
allow for enhancement of pops and development of at least isolated
thunderstorm activity. Have kept pops below likely for now but
these may need to be bumped up to likely with subsequent
forecasts.

Front is a slow mover initially keeping mid range pops in place
over central GA through Tue. It does eventually move well south
of the area through mid week allowing for the coolest air of the
season thus far. Although highs will only be able to be reduced
enough to get back to climo...indications now are that mins could
go some 3 to 5 degrees below climo with upper 40s not out of the
question...even into west central GA should GFS verify. Will need
to see some more runs indicating this to jump on it and will keep
most locales in the 50s for now.

Deese

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z Update...
Winds will be the main forecast issue for the period. Speeds will
be light and generally average 6kt or less. VWP shows light NW
winds up to around 8kft this afternoon, but as the high center
slides east, the low level direction should swing over to the
east. There could be a brief period near sunset where the winds
will flirt with due north, but again, speeds will be very light. The
RAP has had a better handle on the surface winds...and have chosen
to follow closely. Otherwise, conditions will be VFR through the
period. No precip anticipated.

//ATL Confidence...18Z Update...
Medium confidence on winds. High confidence remaining elements.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          67  90  68  88 /   5  20  20  50
Atlanta         71  90  70  87 /   0  10  20  50
Blairsville     62  85  62  83 /   5  30  30  60
Cartersville    66  92  67  87 /   0  10  20  50
Columbus        72  93  70  91 /   5  20  20  30
Gainesville     69  89  68  86 /   5  10  20  60
Macon           69  92  68  90 /   5  20  20  30
Rome            65  93  67  89 /   0  10  20  40
Peachtree City  67  91  66  88 /   0  10  10  40
Vidalia         71  90  71  88 /   5  20  20  40

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...NListemaa
LONG TERM....BDL
AVIATION...NListemaa



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