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Area Forecast Discussion

651
FXUS62 KFFC 291414
AFDFFC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
1014 AM EDT WED JUN 29 2016

.UPDATE...

Not many if any changes planned for this update as forecast grids
are in great shape. Surface analysis indicates surface boundary is
perhaps a little further south than what the models depict but in
the ballpark. Have a feeling that along and ahead of the stratus
deck over central GA is where convection will be most plentifulthis
afternoon. Even into North GA though...should see some development
based on CAPE forecast and like the isolated pops into the Atlanta
metro. Only thing I will be watching for updating is the need to
ramp pops up to likely along the extreme southern tier from Sumter
to Toombs.

&&

Deese

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 730 AM EDT WED JUN 29 2016/

SHORT TERM /Today through Thursday/...
Medium range models continue to suppress convection too far south
today. Although some drier air has begun to filter into the far
north...ample moisture remains available for at least a slight
chance of convection into most of North Georgia with the lack of any
upper-level suppression and the proximity of the surface trough.
Better chances remain across Central Georgia where deeper moisture
will interact with the persistent surface trough across the region.
This pattern holds through Thursday with convection expected to
diminish overnight with loss of daytime heating. Instability will
remain marginal at best for a few strong thunderstorms in Central
Georgia both today and tomorrow.

20

LONG TERM /Thursday Night through Tuesday/...
The eastern trough will hold through the end of the week...then
flatten and lift north putting the CWA in a light westerly flow.
Several impulses will move through the upper flow. With abundant
surface moisture continuing over the CWA...expect scattered
showers and thunderstorms to develop...mainly during the afternoon
and evening hours. Probabilities will increase...especially across
north GA...this weekend and into early next week as a surface
trough moves out of the Tennessee Valley and stalling over the
CWA.

17

AVIATION...
12Z Update...

Wide mix of VFR to LIFR conditions across the southern and eastern
portions of the forecast area...mostly VFR across the north and west
at this time. Conditions will improve rapidly between 12Z and 14Z
with all areas expected to be VFR by 16Z. Isolated showers or
thunderstorms are possible across the southern portions of the area
through 16Z when coverage is expected to increase to scattered.
Cannot rule out isolated showers or thunderstorms across the north
after 16Z...but chances are too small to include in the TAFs for the
northern sites at this time. Wind directions will continue to be
somewhat variable through the period however wind speeds will be
fairly light...5kt or less through 14Z then increasing to 5-8kt
after. Right now it appears that a southwest to northwest direction
will predominate across the majority of the area.

//ATL Confidence...12Z Update...

Medium confidence concerning wind directions through this forecast
period. Confidence generally high all other aspects of the forecast.

20

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          91  70  89  70 /  20  20  30  20
Atlanta         90  71  90  72 /  20  20  30  20
Blairsville     86  63  86  62 /  20  10  20  20
Cartersville    90  67  90  68 /  20  10  20  10
Columbus        91  73  91  73 /  30  20  40  20
Gainesville     90  70  89  69 /  20  20  30  20
Macon           90  71  90  72 /  30  20  40  20
Rome            90  67  89  66 /  10  10  20  10
Peachtree City  90  68  90  69 /  20  20  30  20
Vidalia         90  74  91  73 /  50  30  40  30

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Deese
LONG TERM....BDL
AVIATION...Deese



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