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Area Forecast Discussion

842
FXUS62 KFFC 250753
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
353 AM EDT FRI JUL 25 2014

.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY NEAR A NEWNAN
TO ATHENS LINE. THE NAM AND GFS MODELS SHOW THE BOUNDARY MEANDERING
IN THIS SAME AREA TODAY AS AN UPPER TROUGH AXIS OVERHEAD SHIFTS
SLIGHTLY TO THE EAST. THIS LOOKS REASONABLE AS THE WEST TO NW FLOW
ALOFT SHOULD PREVENT THE BOUNDARY FROM DRIFTING BACK TO THE NORTH
TODAY. AS A RESULT... EXPECT THE GREATER CHANCE FOR CONVECTION TO BE
SOUTH OF THE FRONT...AND MAINLY ACROSS CENTRAL GA DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. HIRES MODELS SHOW ISOLATED
CONVECTION AS FAR NORTH AS A LA GRANGE TO ATHENS LINE...WITH MORE
SCATTERED COVERAGE ALONG AND SOUTH OF A HAMILTON TO LOUISVILLE LINE.
WILL ADJUST POPS ACCORDINGLY. A DRIER AIR MASS SHOULD REMAIN
ENTRENCHED ACROSS MOST OF NORTH GA TODAY... GREATLY HINDERING ANY
CHANCE OF CONVECTION THERE. WITH VERY LITTLE TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCE
EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT... EXPECT THE BOUNDARY TO JUST WASH OUT ON
SATURDAY AS MID-UPPER RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. THE RIDGE AND
LACK OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE ACROSS NORTH GA WILL WARRANT ONLY A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF CONVECTION ACROSS CENTRAL GA ON SATURDAY.

MODERATE CAPE VALUES OF 2000-2500 J/KG SOUTH OF THE FRONT SUGGEST
THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW STRONG STORMS POSSIBLY THIS AFTERNOON OR
EARLY EVENING ALONG OR SOUTH OF THE FRONT. HOWEVER... EXPECT THIS
THREAT TO BE MINIMAL AS WIND SHEAR VALUES REMAIN LOW WITH VERY
LITTLE FRONTAL FORCING EXPECTED. SPC CONTINUES TO SHOW ONLY A
GENERAL THUNDER OUTLOOK FOR AREAS NEAR ATLANTA AND SOUTHWARD TODAY.

AS FOR TEMPS... THE DRIER AIR MASS COUPLED WITH AMPLE SUNSHINE WILL
HELP PUSH MUCH OF NORTH GA TOWARD THE 90 DEGREE MARK TODAY DESPITE
BEING NORTH OF THE FRONT. LOWER 90S LOOK REASONABLE ACROSS MOST OF
CENTRAL GA TODAY. THE DRIER AIR MASS SHOULD RESULT IN SLIGHTLY
COOLER LOWS IN THE 60S FOR MUCH OF NORTH GA TONIGHT...WITH 70S
ACROSS CENTRAL GA. LOWER TO MID 90S FOR MOST AREAS ARE EXPECT ON
SATURDAY. LEANED TOWARD A MAV AND MET BLEND WITH SOME MINOR TWEAKS
THROUGH THE SHORT TERM.

39


.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA BEGINS LOOSING ITS FOOTHOLD SUNDAY AS
FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES CLOSER TO THE REGION. MOISTURE INCREASES
ACROSS THE STATE SUNDAY AHEAD OF FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVING SOUTH OUT
OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS/GREAT LAKE STATES. THIS FRONT IS EXPECTED
TO MOVE INTO NW GA BY 12Z MON AND SLOWLY PUSH SOUTH THROUGH THE
STATE. THE MODELS ARE CONTINUING TO SHOW THIS FRONT PUSHING SOUTH
INTO NORTHERN FL BY 12Z TUE. AS THIS FRONT MOVES ACROSS GA
INSTABILITIES INCREASE WITH CAPES EXPECTED AROUND 2000 TO 3000
J/KG AND LIS RANGING FROM -3 TO -6. SHEAR VALUES DO NOT LOOK THAT
IMPRESSIVE BUT THEY DO INCREASE A BIT WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.
CURRENTLY SPC HAS THE DAY 3 SLIGHT RISK AREA COMING SOUTH OUT OF
TN RIGHT TO OUR NORTHERN BORDER BUT I WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE
THAT EXTENDED FURTHER SOUTH AS WE GET CLOSER TO THE EVENT. ONCE
THIS FRONT PASSES THROUGH...AN UPPER LEVEL DEEP LONG WAVE TROUGH
REMAINS POSITIONED OVER THE AREA THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT
WEEK...KEEPING LOWER DEW POINTS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES IN PLACE
AT LEAST THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. THERE WILL STILL BE SOME
LINGERING MOISTURE ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTION OF OUR CWA WITH
MOISTURE CREEPING BACK NORTHWARD BY NEXT WEEKEND. WILL KEEP
DIURNALLY DRIVEN SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE POPS IN MAINLY ACROSS CENTRAL
GA THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. BEGINNING TUESDAY...SHOULD SEE
BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S NORTH AND
LOW 80S ELSEWHERE...AND LOWS IN THE 60S.


01


&&

.AVIATION...
06Z UPDATE...
LATEST MOS GUIDANCE IS SHOWING LIFR/IFR CIGS DEVELOPING THIS MORNING
BY 09-12Z...LIKELY AS A RESULT OF WET GROUNDS FROM RAINFALL ON THU.
WILL CONTINUE TO SHOW IFR CIGS BY 09Z IN ATLANTA AREA. SOME MVFR
VISIBILITY ALSO LIKELY. THE LOW CIGS SHOULD SCT BY 14Z WITH VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS GENERALLY
WEST TO NORTHWEST AT 7KTS OR LESS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON... THEN MORE
SW AROUND 2-5KTS THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...06Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM TO HIGH ON ALL ELEMENTS.

39

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          91  69  92  73 /  20  10  10  10
ATLANTA         88  71  92  75 /  20  10  10  10
BLAIRSVILLE     84  62  87  66 /  10  10  10  10
CARTERSVILLE    89  67  92  72 /  10   5  10  10
COLUMBUS        92  73  94  76 /  30  20  20  10
GAINESVILLE     88  70  92  73 /  10   5  10  10
MACON           93  71  94  74 /  30  20  20  10
ROME            89  65  92  73 /  10   5  10  10
PEACHTREE CITY  90  66  92  72 /  20  10  10  10
VIDALIA         93  74  94  75 /  40  30  20  10

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...39
LONG TERM....01
AVIATION...39





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