National Weather Service Weather Forecast Office

Area Forecast Discussion

122
FXUS62 KFFC 251508 AAA
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
1107 AM EDT SAT MAY 25 2013

.UPDATE...
NO MAJOR CHANGES PLANNED FOR THIS AFTERNOON OR TONIGHT AS CURRENT
FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK... WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE
NORTH... SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS OVERHEAD... AND WIND DIRECTIONS
GRADUALLY SWINGING AROUND FROM CURRENT ESE TO SW DIRECTION BY LATE
AFTERNOON. WIND SPEEDS WILL BE GENERALLY 6 TO 8 MPH. STILL EXPECT 4
HOURS OR MORE OF CRITICALLY LOW RH VALUES FOR SOME AREAS... SO WILL
CONTINUE TO POST THE FIRE DANGER STATEMENT THROUGH EARLY EVENING.
OTHERWISE... A GREAT AFTERNOON AND WEEKEND STILL LOOKS ON TAP
WEATHER WISE. ENJOY!  /39

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 328 AM EDT SAT MAY 25 2013/

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT/...
GUIDANCE REMAINS IN DECENT AGREEMENT DURING THE SHORT TERM. CUTOFF
OVER NEW ENGLAND WILL CONTINUE TO HEAD OFFSHORE TODAY...WITH
NORTHWEST FLOW IN PLACE ALOFT OVER THE SOUTHEAST AND SURFACE HIGH IN
SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA RIDGING SOUTHWARD. RIDGING WILL BUILD IN OVER
THE PLAINS TODAY AND TOMORROW AND A SHORTWAVE RIDING DOWN IN THE
FLOW ALOFT WILL LIKELY BRING AN INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUD COVER
ESPECIALLY TO NORTH GEORGIA ON SUNDAY. THE FLOW ALOFT WILL BEGIN TO
FLATTEN LATE IN THE SHORT TERM AS THE AFOREMENTIONED CUTOFF LOW
CONTINUES PUSHING OUT INTO THE ATLANTIC RESULTING IN A LOWER
AMPLITUDE WAVE.

TEMPS TODAY WILL AGAIN BE VERY PLEASANT...REMAINING BELOW SEASONAL
NORMS JUST ABOUT EVERYWHERE. EXPECT ANOTHER COOL NIGHT TONIGHT WITH
DRY AIR REMAINING IN PLACE...BUT ON SUNDAY AS THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS
SHIFTS EAST THE FLOW WILL SWING BACK AROUND TO THE SOUTHWEST AND
WEST...BRINGING A GRADUAL RETURN OF SURFACE MOISTURE TO THE AREA...
AS THICKNESSES BEGIN INCREASING. EXPECT HIGHS ON SUNDAY SEVERAL
DEGREES WARMER TODAY...CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMALS...BUT THIS IS JUST
THE BEGINNING OF A MORE SUBSTANTIAL WARMING TREND INTO THE EXTENDED.

FIRE WEATHER...
FUELS DRIED TO BELOW 8 PERCENT JUST ABOUT EVERYWHERE WITH THE BREEZY
CONDITIONS ON FRIDAY...AND WITH DRY CONDITIONS REMAINING IN PLACE...
A FIRE DANGER STATEMENT WILL BE WARRANTED FOR A CRESCENT-SHAPED AREA
FROM NORTH CENTRAL GEORGIA /SOUTH OF THE RIDGE LINE/ ACROSS EASTERN
ZONES AND COVERING MOST OF THE SOUTHERN ZONES. SOME AREAS MAY NOT
QUITE SEE 4 FULL HOURS OF RH LESS THAN 25 PERCENT BUT IT WILL BE
CLOSE ENOUGH. MOISTURE WILL BEGIN RETURNING TO THE AREA ON SUNDAY SO
DO NOT EXPECT ANY ADDITIONAL FIRE DANGER CONDITIONS AT THAT TIME.

TDP

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
OVER THE COURSE OF THE LONG TERM THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE
REGION. FOR THE FIRST COUPLE OF DAYS WE REMAIN IN A NORTHWEST FLOW
WHICH WILL HELP USHER WEAK SHORT WAVES. THESE COULD BE ENOUGH TO
PRODUCE ISOLATED SHOWERS/TSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS MONDAY AND TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER THE EXTREME
NORTHEAST PART OF THE CWA. AFTER TUESDAY THE RIDGE BECOMES THE
DOMINANT FEATURE KEEPING THE CWA DRY FOR THE REST OF THE LONG
TERM WITH A MORE SUMMER LIKE PATTERN.

17

CLIMATE...

RECORDS FOR 05-25

               MAX TEMPERATURE         MIN TEMPERATURE
  STATION      HIGH        LOW         HIGH        LOW
  -------  ----------  ----------  ----------  ----------
   KAHN     100 1926     65 1979     71 2004     46 1979
                            1956
   KATL      93 1960     63 1895     72 2004     46 1979
                1953                    1953
   KCSG      95 2012     71 1979     75 2000     51 1979
                2011        1956
                1953
   KMCN      98 1953     65 1923     74 2000     49 1979

RECORDS FOR 05-26

               MAX TEMPERATURE         MIN TEMPERATURE
  STATION      HIGH        LOW         HIGH        LOW
  -------  ----------  ----------  ----------  ----------
   KAHN      99 1911     63 1963     72 2004     41 1979
   KATL      94 1936     64 1923     73 1989     43 1979
                1916        1901
                1911
   KCSG      97 2012     75 1961     74 2000     47 1979
                                        1989
   KMCN      98 1962     69 1901     72 1921     49 1979

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED AT 736 AM EDT SAT MAY 25 2013/
12Z UPDATE...
VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. NE WINDS AT TAF TIME SHOULD INCREASE TO
5-7KT TODAY...AND THEN SWING BACK TO SW THIS AFTERNOON /CURRENT
TIMING FOR ATL IS 19Z/. WINDS SUBSIDE OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. FEW-SCT
HIGH CLOUDS EXPECTED OFF AND ON THROUGH THE PERIOD.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...12Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM-HIGH ON TIMING OF WIND SHIFTS.
HIGH ON ALL OTHER ELEMENTS.

TDP

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          78  52  82  57 /   0   0   5   5
ATLANTA         78  57  82  62 /   0   0   5   5
BLAIRSVILLE     76  48  77  52 /   0   0   5   5
CARTERSVILLE    79  50  82  53 /   0   0   0   5
COLUMBUS        83  58  86  63 /   0   0   0   5
GAINESVILLE     77  54  79  58 /   0   0   5   5
MACON           81  52  85  57 /   0   0   0   5
ROME            80  50  82  54 /   0   0   5   5
PEACHTREE CITY  79  49  83  55 /   0   0   5  10
VIDALIA         84  57  85  61 /   0   0   0   5

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$