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Area Forecast Discussion

613
FXUS62 KFFC 170808
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
408 AM EDT THU APR 17 2014



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 940 PM EDT WED APR 16 2014/

UPDATE...
NO CHANGES PLANNED FOR THIS EVENING...CURRENT FORECAST REMAINS ON
TRACK. STILL LOOKS TO BE AN UNSEASONABLY COOL NIGHT WITH MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES AND DRY AIR IN PLACE. MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN
INCREASING LATE FROM THE EAST/SOUTHEAST. CURRENT FREEZE WARNING
STILL LOOKS GOOD...THE MAJORITY OF THE AREA WILL REMAIN ABOVE
FREEZING AND FROST CHANCES ARE MINIMAL AS WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN HIGH ENOUGH TO KEEP THE LOWER LEVELS SUFFICIENTLY MIXED.

20

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
MOSTLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT TRANSITIONING TO SOUTHWEST OVERNIGHT. AT THE
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO NOSE INTO THE CWA SETTING UP
A WEDGE PATTERN THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING IN
THE NORTHEAST GULF SHOULD BRING SHOWERS BACK INTO THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN GA AREA BY THURSDAY NIGHT. HAVE INCLUDED LOW POPS ACROSS
MUCH OF CENTRAL GA BEGINNING 00Z FRIDAY. AIR MASS REMAINS STABLE
THROUGH THE PERIOD SO NO THUNDER HAS BEEN MENTIONED. TEMPERATURE
GUIDANCE LOOKS CLOSE THROUGH THE PERIOD. DUE TO EAST WINDS...HAVE
GENERALLY STAYED A BIT ON THE WARMER SIDE OF THE MINS AND TOWARD THE
COOLER SIDE OF THE MAXES. OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD BE ABOVE FREEZING
ACROSS THE CWA TONIGHT EXCEPT FOR THE NE CORNER. HAVE ISSUED ANOTHER
FREEZE WARNING FOR THAT AREA. WINDS SHOULD STAY UP A BIT OVERNIGHT
SO NOT EXPECTING FROST TO BE AN ISSUE. THINK CLOUDS SHOULD STAY OUT
OF THE CWA TONIGHT...BUT EASTERLY WINDS MAY BRING THEM WESTWARD
AFTER SUNRISE TOMORROW.

41

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LONG TERM MODELS ARE BEGINNING TO MERGE IN THEIR SOLUTIONS FOR THE
THE NEXT SYSTEM ON FRIDAY. ECMWF CONTINUES TO BE AGGRESSIVE IN
BRINGING PRECIP FURTHER NORTH BUT INDICATIONS IN THE 12Z RUNS HAVE
BEEN FOR THE GFS TO TREND TOWARD A MORE NORTHWARD SOLUTION AS
WELL. WILL CONTINUE WITH CHANCE POPS NORTH TO LIKELY POPS SOUTH ON
FRIDAY...TRANSITIONING TO EASTERN SECTIONS LATE FRIDAY.
INSTABILITY REMAINS VERY LOW WITH THIS SYSTEM AND ONLY THE EXTREME
SOUTH SHOULD SEE THUNDER CHANCES AND IT WILL BE MARGINAL AT BEST.

MORE DISCREPANCIES FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK AS WE TRANSITION TO MORE
ZONAL FLOW AND ISSUE BECOMES TRYING TO TIME EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES.
GFS IS QUICKER THAN THE ECMWF AND BRINGS FIRST SYSTEM THROUGH ON
MONDAY FOR THE NORTH. BOTH EVENTUALLY BRING A MAIN IMPULSE THROUGH
BUT THE GFS INDICATES IT WILL BE EARLY TU WHILE THE ECMWF IS
HINTING MORE TUE NIGHT. HAVE SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE FOR NOW BUT IF
TRENDS CONTINUE WITH SUBSEQUENT MODEL RUNS...WILL LIKELY NEED TO
INCREASE POP CHANCES. INSTABILITY CERTAINLY LOOKS MORE IMPRESSIVE
THAN OTHER SYSTEMS THIS YEAR AND WITH MODEST SHEAR WILL NEED TO BE
MONITORED CLOSELY FOR SEVERE POTENTIAL.

DEESE/16

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z UPDATE...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. MVFR CIGS
POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL GEORGIA 09-16Z. EXPECT 3-6KFT
CIGS TO SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON...GENERALLY 18-20Z.
EAST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 9-13KT AFTER 12Z WITH GUSTS 15-25KT
BEGINNING MID MORNING.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...06Z UPDATE...
HIGH CONFIDENCE ON ALL ELEMENTS.

31

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          66  46  57  45 /   5  10  60  20
ATLANTA         62  48  57  46 /   5  10  60  20
BLAIRSVILLE     62  40  55  44 /   5   5  20  10
CARTERSVILLE    65  46  60  46 /   5  10  40  10
COLUMBUS        67  51  57  48 /   5  40 100  30
GAINESVILLE     62  46  54  46 /   5   5  40  20
MACON           66  50  56  47 /   5  30  80  60
ROME            66  45  63  45 /   5   5  30  10
PEACHTREE CITY  66  47  58  44 /   5  20  60  20
VIDALIA         69  53  61  53 /   5  30  90  80

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: FANNIN...LUMPKIN...TOWNS...UNION...WHITE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...31
LONG TERM....DEESE
AVIATION...31





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