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Area Forecast Discussion

842
FXUS62 KFFC 310004 AAA
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
804 PM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.UPDATE...
UPDATED GRIDS A COUPLE TIMES TO BETTER REFLECT RADAR AND OBSERVED
NEAR-TERM TRENDS. DRY SLOT CONVECTION HAS DISSIPATED AND APPEARS
WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT IS CLOSING. WILL
KEEP POPS LOW THRU THE NIGHT AND MON MORNING. WITH DRY SLOT
CLEARING ALOFT AND RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL AND GROUND MOISTURE...POTENTIAL
FOR AREAS OF RADIATIONAL FOG HIGH LATE TONIGHT. HAVE ADDED FOG TO
MOST AREAS 2AM-10AM.

SNELSON

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 333 PM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015/

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
CURRENT RADAR LOOP SHOWS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
ROTATING AROUND MAIN LOW PRESSURE CENTER ALONG THE AL/GA BORDER.
THIS LOW IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING NORTH TO NORTHEAST AND
WILL WEAKEN AS IT DOES. THE MODELS ALSO SHOW THE MAIN AREA OF
MOISTURE OVER N GA AND THE CAROLINAS MOVING NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT.
THIS WILL HELP TO END THE PRECIPITATION OVER THE AREA BY MIDNIGHT.
THERE MAY BE A FEW LEFT OVER SHOWERS ACROSS NORTH GA BUT THATS IT.
THE MODELS ARE SHOWING THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE NORTHERN GULF
BUILDING SLIGHTLY NORTHWARD MONDAY AND THE MOISTURE REMAINS OF
ERIKA REMAINING SOUTH AND EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. THERE WILL
STILL BE SOME MOISTURE OVER THE AREA MONDAY BUT IT WILL BE A LOT
LESS THAN TODAY. GOING WITH LOW CHANCE POPS ACROSS NORTH AND
CENTRAL GA MONDAY. INSTABILITIES EXPECTED TO BE FAIRLY WEAK FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR SO ONLY GOING WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER
MONDAY AS WELL. THIS FITS WELL WITH SPC AS THEY CURRENTLY HAVE US
IN JUST A GENERAL THUNDERSTORM RISK FOR MONDAY. TEMPS WILL BE IN
THE 60S AND 70S FOR LOWS...AND MAINLY IN THE 80S FOR HIGHS WITH
SOME 70S IN THE NORTH GA MOUNTAINS.

01

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE
FORECAST. NO MAJOR CHANGES NEEDED.

THE UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL COME IN TWO FORMS FOR THE EXTENDED...AN
UPPER LOW THAT PRETTY MUCH STAYS PARKED ACROSS THE GULF
STATES/NORTHERN GOMEX AND THE REMNANTS OF ERIKA.

MODELS HAVE CONTINUED THE TREND OF SHIFTING THE DEEPEST TROPICAL
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH ERIKAS REMNANTS EASTWARD. SO...THE HIGHEST
QPF SHOULD REMAIN ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN ZONES. AS FAR AS THE UPPER
LOW GOES...THE FEATURE COULD HELP KEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIP MORE
SCT/ISOLD IN THE WEST. EITHER FEATURE WILL HAVE ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE TO WORK WITH.

ANOTHER BY-PRODUCT OF THE UPPER LOW WILL BE THAT TEMPS WILL STRUGGLE
TO GET OUT OF THE 80S FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD.

NLISTEMAA

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z UPDATE...
PRIMARY CONCERN IS DEVELOPMENT OF IFR CIGS AND POSSIBLY VSBYS AS
WELL LATE TONIGHT DUE TO RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...EAST SFC
WINDS AND RADIATIONAL COOLING. THESE CIGS AND VSBYS SHOULD CLEAR
BY 14-15Z. CONFIDENCE/CHC FOR SHRA/TSRA MONDAY AFTERNOON TOO LOW
TO MENTION IN FCST ATTM.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...00Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ON IFR CIGS/VSBYS MON MORNING
HIGH CONFIDENCE ON ALL OTHER ELEMENTS

SNELSON

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          67  84  69  88 /  40  30  20  30
ATLANTA         69  85  70  88 /  30  30  10  20
BLAIRSVILLE     62  81  63  83 /  40  30  20  30
CARTERSVILLE    67  85  67  88 /  30  30  10  20
COLUMBUS        70  89  71  90 /  20  20  10  20
GAINESVILLE     67  82  69  86 /  40  30  20  30
MACON           70  87  70  89 /  20  20  10  20
ROME            67  85  67  89 /  30  30  10  20
PEACHTREE CITY  67  85  68  88 /  30  30  10  20
VIDALIA         72  86  73  89 /  40  20  20  30

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SNELSON
LONG TERM....39
AVIATION...SNELSON



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