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Area Forecast Discussion

012
FXUS62 KFFC 310540 AAB
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
140 AM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.PREV DISCUSSION...

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
/ISSUED 328 PM EDT THU JUL 30 2015/
A WEAK COLD FRONT IS MAKING PROGRESS SOUTHWARD INTO FAR NORTH
GEORGIA THIS AFTERNOON. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE
DEVELOPED IN ADVANCE OF THIS FRONT. ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT WILL
LIKELY OCCUR OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE WEAK
FRONTAL FORCING. WHILE CAPE VALUES OVER 2000 J/KG EXIST OVER PARTS
OF THE AREA...MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE RATHER UNIMPRESSIVE...SO THE
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM THREAT WILL REMAIN LIMITED. WITH THAT IN MIND...
AN ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT THROUGH THE
EVENING HOURS. PWAT VALUES IN EXCESS OF 2 INCHES RESIDE AHEAD OF THE
FRONT AS WELL...SO THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE EFFICIENT HEAVY RAINFALL
PRODUCERS.

OVERALL CONVECTIVE COVERAGE WILL BEGIN TO WANE AFTER SUNSET FROM
NORTH TO SOUTH...THOUGH SOME WILL LIKELY LINGER IN CENTRAL GEORGIA
OVERNIGHT AS THE FRONT PUSHES INTO THIS AREA.

THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL RESIDE ACROSS CENTRAL GEORGIA DURING THE
DAY ON FRIDAY AND WILL SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. THOUGH SOME THUNDERSTORMS MAY AGAIN BE STRONG
IN THIS VICINITY...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT CURRENTLY
ANTICIPATED. LOCATIONS TO THE NORTH OF THIS FRONT WILL REMAIN DRY
ON FRIDAY AS NOTICEABLY MORE COMFORTABLE DEWPOINTS FILTER AS FAR
SOUTH AS THE ATLANTA METRO ON FRIDAY.

RW

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
/ISSUED 328 PM EDT THU JUL 30 2015/
MODELS CONTINUE TO AGREE ON A WEAK COLD FRONT REMAINING STALLED
ACROSS THE SOUTH HALF OF GEORGIA OVER THE WEEKEND AND POSSIBLY
PROVIDING A FOCUS FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THERE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THEN AN
UPPER DISTURBANCE PUSHES THE FRONT SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA BY
MONDAY... WITH A DRIER NORTHWEST MID AND UPPER FLOW REDUCING RAIN
CHANCES ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA BY MONDAY AND POSSIBLY EVEN TUESDAY
OF NEXT WEEK. THE GFS IS SHOWING A MOSTLY DRY... REINFORCING COLD
FRONT PUSHING INTO NORTH GEORGIA ON WEDNESDAY WITH A PERSISTENT NW
FLOW ALOFT. THIS WOULD CONTINUE TO HOLD RAIN CHANCES DOWN THROUGH
AT LEAST MID WEEK. AT THE SAME TIME... THE ECMWF IS SHOWING A
MOIST SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST SURFACE TO MID LEVEL FLOW SETTING UP BY
WEDNESDAY WITH AN UPPER DISTURBANCE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST BY
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WOULD SUGGEST INCREASING RAIN CHANCES
FOR MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK. WILL LEAN TOWARD THE DRIER GFS SOLUTION
FOR NOW... BUT STILL SHOW A SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE OF AFTERNOON
CONVECTION FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. MODERATE INSTABILITY...
ALONG WITH WEAK WIND SHEAR SUGGEST ANY AFTERNOON STORMS SHOULD
REMAIN BELOW SEVERE LIMITS.

BEHIND THE FRONT... SHORT TERM RELIEF FROM THE HEAT IS EXPECTED
AS NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY SPREAD FROM NORTH GEORGIA
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO CENTRAL GEORGIA OVER THE WEEKEND. THIS RELIEF
MAY PERSIST THROUGH MONDAY... BUT APPEARS ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND NEAR CRITICALLY HIGH HEAT INDICES WILL LIKELY
RETURN TO MUCH OF THE AREA BY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY OF NEXT WEEK.

39/16

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z UPDATE...
MAIN CHALLENGE THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD IS THE WIND DIRECTION AND
THE FORECAST CALLS FOR MULTIPLE WIND SHIFTS AT ATL. THERE ARE SOME
INCONSISTENCIES IN THE GUIDANCE AND DUE TO THIS AND TIMING...HAVE
LOW CONFIDENCE ON THE WIND DIRECTION. TSRA IS EXPECTED ACROSS
CENTRAL GEORGIA TODAY AND THUS BETTER CHANCES OF TSRA ARE AT MCN
AND CSG.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...06Z UPDATE...
HIGH CONFIDENCE ON CIGS AND VSBYS. LOW CONFIDENCE ON WIND.

11

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          91  70  93  72 /  10   5  10  20
ATLANTA         90  72  90  73 /  20   5  10  10
BLAIRSVILLE     85  62  85  61 /   5   0   5  10
CARTERSVILLE    90  67  91  69 /   5   5   5  10
COLUMBUS        93  74  92  74 /  40  30  20  20
GAINESVILLE     88  70  90  72 /   5   5   5  10
MACON           94  74  93  73 /  40  30  20  20
ROME            90  67  91  68 /   5   0   5   5
PEACHTREE CITY  90  70  91  71 /  20  10  10  20
VIDALIA         93  75  92  74 /  50  40  30  30

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM....39
AVIATION...11



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