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Area Forecast Discussion

615
FXUS62 KFFC 061131
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
631 AM EST SAT FEB 6 2016



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 416 AM EST SAT FEB 6 2016/

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE AT THE SURFACE TODAY. THE HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL BREAK DOWN EARLY THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS A LOW
PRESSURE WAVE FORMS TO THE SOUTH. MEANWHILE...AT 500MB...AN UPPER
LOW/TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY TODAY
AND THEN ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES OVERNIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY.

THERE ARE SOME PRETTY BIG DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS OVERNIGHT INTO
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...BUT THE NAM IS A PRETTY BIG OUTLIER. THE NAM
IS WETTER AND HAS ITS LOW PRESSURE CENTER FURTHER TO THE NORTH AND
WEST THAN THE OTHER MODELS. THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE VERY SIMILAR WITH
THE LOW PRESSURE PLACEMENT...BUT THE ECMWF IS SLIGHTLY WETTER THAN
THE GFS. HAVE PRETTY MUCH DISCARDED THE NAM SOLUTION...AND TAKEN A
COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE GFS AND THE ECMWF FOR SATURDAY NIGHT/EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING.

ALL OF THE MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT THE ATMOS WILL BE COLD
ENOUGH FOR SNOW ALOFT. HOWEVER...THERE IS A LAYER OF WARM AIR NEAR
THE SURFACE. THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE A DEEPER LAYER OF WARMER AIR
NEAR THE SURFACE THAN THE NAM...BUT ALL OF THE MODELS ARE SHOWING
SOME POTENTIAL FOR THE PTYPE TO BE A RASN MIX. A BIG HOWEVER...THE
POPS ARE GOING TO BE FAIRLY LOW ACROSS THE CWFA...WITH THE HIGHEST
VALUES ACROSS FAR EASTERN GEORGIA AND SOUTH CAROLINA. HAVE BUMPED
VALUES UP A BIT IN THE FAR EASTERN CWFA TO ACCOUNT FOR THE ECMWF
VS THE BLEND NUMBERS.

NLISTEMAA

LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST TRENDS WITH THIS
CYCLE. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS REMAIN CONSISTENT THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH
A COLD START AND A MODERATING SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK. WINTRY
WEATHER STILL LOOKS LIKELY ACROSS NORTH GEORGIA FROM EARLY MONDAY
THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY. BEST FORCING AND MOISTURE REMAINS IN THE
MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT PERIOD AS TEMPERATURES FALL. SHOULD SEE
PRECIPITATION START AS MOSTLY RAIN EARLY MONDAY BEFORE THE MORE
SIGNIFICANT PUSH OF COLDER AIR. SOME RAIN/SNOW MIXTURE IS LIKELY IN
THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS FROM ONSET. BY LATE IN THE DAY MONDAY THROUGH
THE EVENING...COLD AIRMASS COINCIDES WITH THE TAIL END OF THE BETTER
FORCING AND MOISTURE WITH LIMITED MOISTURE AND MAINLY COLD
ADVECTION/OROGRAPHIC INFLUENCES BY DAYTIME TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT LIMITING OVERALL SNOW TOTALS. STILL LOOKS LIKE WE WILL SEE A
DUSTING TO A HALF INCH FROM THE ATLANTA METRO AREA NORTHWARD WITH 1-
2 INCHES IN THE MOUNTAINS...ESPECIALLY NORTH THROUGH WEST FACING
SLOPES. HIGHEST RIDGETOPS COULD SEE HIGHER TOTALS. MOISTURE BECOMES
TOO SCARCE FOR ANY MENTION OF PRECIPITATION AFTER TUESDAY NIGHT...
BUT A FEW FLURRIES ARE NOT IMPOSSIBLE IN THE FAR NORTHERN MOUNTAINS
INTO THE DAYTIME WEDNESDAY.

TEMPERATURES BEGIN MODERATING BY THURSDAY AS THE UPPER-LEVEL FLOW DE-
AMPLIFIES WITH NEAR SEASONAL TEMPERATURES BY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

20



&&

.AVIATION...
12Z UPDATE...
VFR CIGS/VSBYS THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH SOME PASSING CIRRUS. EAST
WINDS TODAY WILL SWITCH TO THE NW OVERNIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH
SUNDAY. A FEW GUSTS AROUND 20 KT ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE DAY ON
SUNDAY.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...12Z UPDATE...
HIGH CONFIDENCE ALL ELEMENTS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          52  30  56  36 /   0   0   5   5
ATLANTA         52  32  54  38 /   0   0   5   5
BLAIRSVILLE     48  27  51  32 /   0   0   5  20
CARTERSVILLE    52  29  54  36 /   0   0   5  10
COLUMBUS        55  32  56  37 /   0   0   5   5
GAINESVILLE     50  32  53  36 /   0   0   5  10
MACON           54  31  56  36 /   5   5   5   5
ROME            52  29  55  35 /   0   0   5  20
PEACHTREE CITY  53  29  55  36 /   0   0   5   5
VIDALIA         53  36  55  38 /  20  30  20   5

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$



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