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Area Forecast Discussion
120 FXUS62 KFFC 222330 AFDFFC Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Peachtree City GA 730 PM EDT FRI JUL 22 2016 .PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 230 PM EDT FRI JUL 22 2016/ SHORT TERM /Tonight through Saturday Night/... Morning sounding showed decreased moisture and instability across the area today... with 1.48 pw`s and around 2000-2500 J/KG of afternoon mucape. This coupled with high pressure influence aloft and the airmass needing to recharge from scattered to numerous storms seen on Thursday all suggest a much less active storm day this afternoon and evening. Will show low scattered pops across far north GA and parts of central GA where models show a few storms could develop during max heating. Any afternoon/evening convection will quickly dissipate by 9-10 pm this evening with loss of daytime heating. Expecting a bit more coverage of storms on Saturday as models agree on an upper disturbance pushing down from the north by late Saturday morning... or at least in time for afternoon heating. Not expecting widespread severe storms on Saturday and SPC shows just general thunder for Saturday at this time... but as usual... we can expect at least a few strong to possibly severe storms during peak heating... mainly between 2 pm and 8 pm... so don`t let your guard down just because we are in a general thunder outlook. Not expecting much of a fog threat tonight with a drier air mass and less coverage of wet grounds expected through this evening. Otherwise... continued to lean toward persistence for lows... and took a mav and met blend for highs on Saturday. Also... increased pops slightly for Saturday afternoon/evening as the approaching disturbance should increase storm coverage. 39 LONG TERM /Sunday through Friday/... No significant changes made to the long term forecast trends with this update. Medium range models continue to keep Georgia under varying degrees of upper-level ridging through the majority of the forecast period. 12Z runs still showing an easterly wave sweeping through late in the weekend and early next week...however latest run keeps this an open wave and is a bit further south so overall impact is still a bit uncertain. Sunday has the potential to need a Heat Advisory...but this will be highly dependent on how much cloud cover we see in advance of the easterly wave. The remainder of the period should see temperatures continuing a bit above seasonal normals with scattered...mainly diurnal...convection each day. Please see the previous long term forecast discussion below. 20 Previous Discussions.../Issued at 338 AM EDT FRI JUL 22 2016/ LONG TERM /Saturday Night through Thursday/... The long term starts off with a persistent pattern as an upper ridge continues over the area Saturday night and Sunday. The fly in the ointment for Sunday is an easterly wave is forecast to move over FL and this could affect central GA with a little more convective activity then is currently forecast. Otherwise mainly diurnal showers and storms for Saturday evening and Sunday afternoon. Another hot day on Sunday is expected with most high temperatures expected in the 90s except 80s for portions of the mountains. Heat indices for a large portion of east and central GA will be in the 103-108 range. The easterly wave moves into the gulf of Mexico near the coast for Monday and the upper ridge weakens some. The upper ridge remains weaker for Tuesday and Wednesday. The GFS and European differ for Thursday with the GFS transitioning the upper pattern to an upper trough approaching the area with the European slower in doing so. This will lead to a continuation of showers and storms that will be mostly diurnal in nature. Highs in the 90s can be expected for much of this period except for 80s over portions of the mountains. High temperatures will become less hot as the week progresses. BDL && .AVIATION... 00Z Update... ISO/SCT shra/tsra moving into the metro area this evening. Will keep a vc and a tempo in for two hours. Not expecting the activity to linger much after sunset. If rain does occur at ATL, then the potential for low cigs will increase, but will not include in the TAF at this time. Winds should remain on the west side through the period. //ATL Confidence...00Z Update... Med confidence all elements. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Athens 74 97 74 97 / 20 30 20 30 Atlanta 75 94 76 94 / 20 30 20 40 Blairsville 68 90 69 90 / 30 30 30 50 Cartersville 73 95 73 95 / 20 30 30 40 Columbus 74 96 75 95 / 30 30 20 40 Gainesville 73 94 75 94 / 30 30 20 40 Macon 74 98 74 97 / 30 30 20 30 Rome 73 95 73 95 / 20 30 30 40 Peachtree City 72 95 73 94 / 20 30 20 40 Vidalia 73 97 75 96 / 30 20 20 30 && .FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM... AVIATION...