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Area Forecast Discussion

691
FXUS62 KFFC 280253
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
953 PM EST THU NOV 27 2014

.UPDATE...
OVERALL FORECAST LOOKS TO BE ON TRACK AND HAVE MADE NO SIGNIFICANT
CHANGES TO THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME. HAVE MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS
TO HOURLY TEMPERATURE AND SKY GRIDS TO ACCOUNT FOR LATEST COOLING
TRENDS AND PERSISTENT CLOUD COVER ACROSS NORTH GEORGIA. STILL
ANTICIPATE THIS CLOUD COVER TO DISSIPATE OVERNIGHT.

31

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 652 PM EST THU NOV 27 2014/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 249 PM EST THU NOV 27 2014/

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...

STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST OF THE LOCAL AREA
BUT THIS HAS FAILED TO ERADICATE THE TO LOW TO MID CLOUDS THAT
ENGULF MOST OF NORTH GEORGIA. THIS CONTINUES TO PLAY HAVOC WITH
TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON WITH AREAS IN THE MOUNTAINS STRUGGLING
TO REACH THE LOWER 40S. HAVE HAD ISOLATED REPORTS OF LIGHT FLURRY
ACTIVITY THROUGH THE NOON HOUR...BUT LOSING INFLUENCE OF SHORTWAVE
SHOULD ALLOW FOR NIL POPS THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.

LOOKS LIKE WE ARE ON TAP FOR A VERY COLD THANKSGIVING NIGHT WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR A HARD FREEZE ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTH GEORGIA.
LOW CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO IMPEDE RADIATIONAL COOLING INITIALLY
BUT SHOULD ONLY RESULT IN TEMPERATURES BEING A DEGREE OR TWO
HIGHER THAN MODEL CONSENSUS.

REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM IS QUITE BENIGN WITH NO POPS IN THE
FORECAST AND A SUBTLE MODERATING TREND WITH HIGHS ON FRIDAY
APPROACHING THE 50 DEGREE MARK.

DEESE

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FEW CHANGES TO THE LONG TERM. MODELS AGREE ON DRAPING FRONTAL
BOUNDARY ACROSS THE NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE STATE AND BRINGING
CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS THIS AREA MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY
MORNING. WHILE THERE IS STILL DISAGREEMENT FOR MID-WEEK NEXT WEEK,
THE ECMWF IS A LITTLE LESS ENTHUSIASTIC ON PRECIP CHANCES FOR
WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY THAN IT WAS IN THE PREVIOUS MODEL RUN. HAVE
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTH GEORGIA ON WEDNESDAY
MORNING BUT WILL HAVE TO SEE IF TREND WILL BE TO BACK DOWN FROM
RAIN CHANCES DURING THIS TIME FRAME.

RW

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
GFS/ECMWF IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...THEN
DIFFERENCES BEGIN. BOTH MODELS SHOW RISING H5 HEIGHTS WITH HIGH
PRESSURE SHIFTING TO OUR EAST BRINGING US A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST LOW
LEVEL FLOW...IE WARMING TEMPERATURES. BY MONDAY CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST PUSHING A COLD FRONT INTO
THE OHIO AND MISSISSIPPI VALLEYS. BOTH GFS/ECMWF BRING THIS FRONT
INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY MONDAY/TUESDAY BUT THEY DIFFER ON THE
AMOUNT OF MOISTURE WITH THE ECMWF A LITTLE LESS AGGRESSIVE. WILL
KEEP POPS CONFINED TO NORTH GA AS BOTH MODELS ALSO WEAKEN THE
FRONT. THEN AS WE PUSH INTO MID WEEK NEXT WEEK BOTH MODELS ARE OUT
OF SYNC WITH EACH OTHER WITH POSITIONS OF SHORT WAVES AND LOCATION
OF DEEPEST MOISTURE. UNTIL THERE IS MORE MODEL CONSENSUS WILL GO
WITH LESS THAN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY.

17

AVIATION...
00Z UPDATE...
VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS WILL DISSIPATE OVERNIGHT FROM 8-10KT
THIS EVENING TO 5KT OR LESS BY 12Z. NW WINDS WILL SLIDE TO THE W
AND THEN SW BY FRIDAY EVENING.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...00Z UPDATE...
HIGH ON ALL ELEMENTS.

31

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          27  47  30  57 /   0   0   0   0
ATLANTA         28  48  34  58 /   0   0   0   0
BLAIRSVILLE     26  47  29  55 /   0   0   0   0
CARTERSVILLE    26  48  29  58 /   0   0   0   0
COLUMBUS        29  52  33  61 /   0   0   0   0
GAINESVILLE     29  47  32  56 /   0   0   0   0
MACON           28  52  29  60 /   0   0   0   0
ROME            27  48  28  59 /   0   0   0   0
PEACHTREE CITY  25  49  29  59 /   0   0   0   0
VIDALIA         33  52  34  61 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...31
LONG TERM....NLISTEMAA
AVIATION...31



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