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Area Forecast Discussion

545
FXUS62 KFFC 211139
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
739 AM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 311 AM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014/

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
NO CONCERNS IN THE IMMEDIATE SHORT TERM AS LOCAL AREA REMAINS
WITHING WEAK RIDGE AXIS...SANDWICHED SAFELY BETWEEN COASTAL LOW
OFF THE CAROLINAS AND STRONGER SYNOPTIC LOW OVER CANADA AND THE
GREAT LAKES REGION. DEPARTURE OF THE FIRST LOW HAS ALLOWED FOR
DRIER AIR TO FILTER INTO THE REGION AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WITH
SATELLITE IMAGERY BEARING THIS OUT WITH GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES FOR
THE AREA.

GREAT LAKES LOW AND ATTENDANT COLD FRONT WILL BE THE MAJOR PLAYERS
FOR OUR SENSIBLE WEATHER FOR THE SHORT TERM. FRONTAL BOUNDARY
SHOULD MAKE QUICK PROGRESS SOUTH AND EAST TODAY AND BE INTO THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY BY 18Z AND ON GEORGIA DOORSTEP BY 00Z. THE
QUESTION WILL BE HOW MUCH IF ANY OF THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY MAINTAINS ITSELF AS IT MOVES THROUGH. IF THIS WERE A
PURE WINTER TIME SCENARIO...GIVEN THE MOISTURE PROFILE...THIS
WOULD BE AN EASY CALL WITH VERY LIMITED POPS TO BE ADVERTISED.
STILL BEING SEPTEMBER HOWEVER...WE WILL STILL HAVE TEMPS TODAY
MAXING OUT IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S AND RESIDUAL CAPE VALUES SHOULD
BE IN THE 1500 J/KG RANGE OVER FAR NORTH GEORGIA. IN FACT...MOST
MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN HOLDING THIS CAPE AXIS TOGETHER AS IT
MOVES THROUGH THE NORTHERN METRO BEFORE DECREASING FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT.

SHORT RANGE REFLECTIVITY MODELS ARE OF LITTLE HELP WITH HALF
SHOWING A DRY SCENARIO WHILE MODELS LIKE THE WRF INDICATE ROBUST
DEVELOPMENT THROUGH 06Z. GIVEN AGREEMENT ON CAPE VALUES...AND
STRENGTH OF SHORTWAVE...HAVE LEANED WETTER WITH THIS FORECAST
WHICH STILL KEEPS EVERYONE IN THE CHANCE RANGE FOR NOW WITH CHANCE
THUNDER AS WELL.

THERE IS A LITTLE MORE CONSENSUS FOR MONDAY AS SLOWING FRONT TAKES
ADVANTAGE OF INCREASING INSTABILITY OVER CENTRAL GEORGIA TO RESULT
IN INCREASED THUNDERSTORM CHANCES MONDAY AFTERNOON. SHOULD BE
SHORT LIVED HOWEVER AS MUCH DRIER MOVES INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE
FRONT WITH UPPER 40S DEWPOINTS ADVERTISED FOR EXTREME NORTH
GEORGIA BY THE CLOSE OF THE SHORT TERM.

DEESE

LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
COLD FRONT MOVING SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY NIGHT AS AN
UPPER TROUGH MOVES ACROSS MAINLY CENTRAL GA. THE EUROPEAN MODEL IS
DIFFERING WITH A WEAK UPPER LOW OVER E GA AND HOLDING ONTO MORE
MOIST AND PRECIP THAN THE GFS OR NAM. HAVE LEANED MORE TO THE GFS
AND NAM.

AGAIN FAVORING THE DRIER GFS AND NAM FOR TUESDAY AS DRY SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE OH VALLEY AND NE STATES EXTENDING DOWN INTO
MUCH OF GA.

DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE GFS AND EUROPEAN CONTINUE WEDNESDAY WITH THE
MOISTURE FIELD AND LESS SO THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY AS MOISTURE
CONTINUES TO INCREASE OVER THE FORECAST AREA. A STABLE EAST FLOW
CONTINUES THIS PERIOD WITH NO INSTABILITY FORECAST. CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS WILL REMAIN LOW AND FAVOR CENTRAL GA INCREASING TO THE N
THURSDAY AND BEYOND.

FORECAST TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO OR BELOW NORMAL FOR THE LONG
TERM...WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES MOST SO BELOW NORMAL.

BDL

.AVIATION...
06Z UPDATE...
INHERITED EXCELLENT AVIATION GRID SET LAST NIGHT WHICH WILL
RESULTED IN LIMITED CHANGES TO 06Z TAF SET AND LIKEWISE TO THE 12Z SET.
BIG QUESTIONS WILL BE HOW MUCH SHRA/TSRA WILL MAKE IT FROM EXTREME
NORTH GA INTO THE ATL TERMINALS AHEAD OF FRONT AND WILL THERE BE
AN MVFR CLOUD DECK TO ACCOMPANY IT. FOR NOW...GOING WITH RAIN
CHANCES TOO LOW FOR MENTION AND DECK REMAINING SCT AS THE LOWEST
CONDITIONS COME THROUGH BUT WILL CERTAINLY NEED TO MONITOR TRENDS
FOR POSSIBLE UPDATES WITH 18Z FORECAST.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...12Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM ON SHRA AND CIG POTENTIAL WITH FRONT.
HIGH ON REMAINING ELEMENTS.

DEESE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          88  65  81  58 /  10  30  20   0
ATLANTA         86  64  80  59 /  10  30  20   0
BLAIRSVILLE     81  58  75  50 /  40  40   5   0
CARTERSVILLE    86  61  78  55 /  30  40   5   0
COLUMBUS        90  68  85  62 /   0  30  30   0
GAINESVILLE     85  64  77  58 /  20  30   5   0
MACON           90  65  86  60 /   0  30  40   0
ROME            87  61  80  54 /  30  40   0   0
PEACHTREE CITY  87  63  81  56 /   5  30  30   0
VIDALIA         90  67  88  65 /   5   5  30  30

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DEESE
LONG TERM....BDL
AVIATION...DEESE





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