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Area Forecast Discussion

527
FXUS62 KFFC 040815
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
415 AM EDT MON MAY 4 2015

.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
SHORT TERM.  NOT MUCH CHANGE EXPECTED TO THE OVERALL WEATHER
PATTERN...A WEAK UPPER LEVEL WAVE IS MOVING INTO THE CAROLINAS WHICH
WILL LEAVE WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGING AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS
THE AREA.  A FEW TO SCATTERED AFTERNOON CLOUDS ARE ALL THAT IS
EXPECTED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH NEAR NORMAL LOWS AND JUST
ABOVE AVERAGE HIGHS TODAY AND TUESDAY.

ATWELL


.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MAIN FOCUS FOR THE LONG TERM WILL BE THE POTENTIAL
TROPICAL/SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM THAT IS BEING PROGGED TO DEVELOP BY
BOTH THE GFS/ECMWF JUST OFF THE GA/SC COAST. THE 00Z RUN OF THE
ECMWF IS BRINGING THE SURFACE LOW FURTHER WEST THAN THE 12Z
RUN...HOWEVER LARGE POSITION DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE TWO MODELS
LENDS TO THE LOW CONFIDENCE FOR THE LONG TERM FORECAST. HAVING
STATED THIS...WILL HEDGE A BIT AND PUT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ALONG
OUR EASTERN COUNTIES THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. AFTER THIS
SYSTEM EXITS...UPPER LEVEL RIDGING DEVELOPS OVER THE EASTERN U.S.
AND BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING A SHORT WAVE BRINGS A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS/TSTORMS TO THE CWA.

17

&&
.AVIATION...
06Z UPDATE... VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST WITH LIGHT SOUTH WINDS.
EXPECT MAINLY SE WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD AT 5KTS OR LESS.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...06Z UPDATE...
HIGH CONFIDENCE ALL ELEMENTS.

ATWELL

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          82  57  81  57 /   5  10   5   5
ATLANTA         81  59  81  61 /   5   5   5   5
BLAIRSVILLE     77  52  77  55 /   5   0  20  10
CARTERSVILLE    82  54  81  55 /   5   5   5   5
COLUMBUS        84  58  82  58 /   5   5   5   5
GAINESVILLE     80  58  80  59 /   5   5  10   5
MACON           83  56  82  55 /   5   5   5   5
ROME            83  54  82  54 /   5   5   5   5
PEACHTREE CITY  82  55  81  54 /   5   5   5   5
VIDALIA         83  59  82  59 /   5   5   5   5

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ATWELL
LONG TERM....17
AVIATION...ATWELL



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