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Area Forecast Discussion

267
FXUS62 KFFC 261504 AAB
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
1104 AM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

.UPDATE...
OVERALL THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK AND ONLY MINOR CHANGES. HAVE
STARTED TO SEE SOME SHOWERS DEVELOP ACROSS THE SW PART OF THE
CWA...THATS IN ADDITION TO THOSE LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS NORTH
GEORGIA. VERY LITTLE RAINFALL WITH WHATS ON RADAR THIS MORNING.

HI RES MODELS ARE SUGGESTING BETTER COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 00Z TONIGHT WHICH STILL ALIGNS WITH OUR BETTER
CHANCE OF POPS TONIGHT.

DID ALLOW THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY TO EXPIRE AT 10AM.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 722 AM EDT THU MAR 26 2015/

.ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TODAY FOLLOWED BY POTENTIAL RECORD COLD
SATURDAY...

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
/ISSUED 359 AM EDT THU MAR 26 2015/
WELL I GUESS WE SHOULD START WITH THE CURRENT SETUP ACROSS THE
AREA WHICH FEATURES A QUICKLY ERODING WEDGE LARGELY OUT OF THE
LOCAL AREA BUT PERHAPS SOME SUBTLE INFLUENCE THROUGH THE ATHENS
AREA. IN ITS PLACE...WE NOW HAVE A LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST FLOW
ACROSS THE AREA WITH PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RESULTING IN LOW
CLOUDS FOR ALL AND PATCHY DENSE FOG FOR SCATTERED LOCATIONS. MOST
CONCENTRATED AREA OF DENSE FOG LOOKS TO BE OVER THE SOUTHEAST
ZONES AND WILL NEED TO MONITOR CLOSELY FOR POSSIBLE DENSE FOG
ADVISORY. AT THE VERY LEAST...AN SPS LOOKS PRUDENT AND WILL CARRY
THROUGH 9AM FOR NOW. OTHERWISE...RADAR REMAINS RELATIVELY CLEAR
THIS MORNING BUT DOES SHOW AN INTERESTING EAST WEST BOUNDARY THAT
HAS PROGRESSED NORTH AND LOOKS TO BE STALLING OVER NORTH GEORGIA.
THIS COULD HAVE SOME IMPLICATIONS IN CONVECTIVE INITIATION AND/OR
STORM STRUCTURE LATER TODAY.

FOR TODAY...MOST SHORT TERM MODEL GUIDANCE INCLUDING THE LOCAL WRF
VARIATIONS INDICATE A SLUG OF ENHANCED MOISTURE MOVING INTO THE
SOUTHWEST ZONES AHEAD OF THE MAIN PRE-FRONTAL ACTIVITY. GFS SHOWS
A DECENT SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED IN OVERALL SW FLOW AS WELL AS ENHANCED
OMEGA ALONG THE GULF COAST INTO ALABAMA BY MID MORNING. NOT SURE
WE WILL HAVE CLEARED ENOUGH BY THEN TO REALIZE ENOUGH CAPE TO FUEL
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS BUT SHOULD AT LEAST SEE SOME ISOLATED
GARDEN VARIETY STORMS WITH THIS CLUSTER. THERE IS 35 KTS AT 850MB
WITH THIS CLUSTER AND UP TO 100 M2/S2 OF HELICITY IN THE 0-1KM
RANGE SO AGAIN WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED THROUGH THIS MORNING.

MAIN EVENT LOOKS TO BE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE
EVENING...NORMALLY A PRIME TIME GIVEN DAYTIME HEATING BUT MUCH
WILL DEPEND ON HOW MUCH WE CAN CLEAR CLOUDS OUT. WITH DEVELOPING
SW FLOW...FEEL THERE WILL BE AN OPPORTUNITY TO BUILD CAPE VALUES
HIGHER THAN WHAT MODELS PROJECT WITH IN EXCESS OF 1000 J/KG OVER
WEST CENTRAL GEORGIA. MARGINAL SHEAR VALUES BUT IMPRESSIVE ELAPSE
RATES AND TRAVERSING COLD POOL COULD BE ENOUGH TO REALIZE SOME
MARGINAL HAIL WITH THIS SYSTEM.

DEESE

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
/ISSUED 359 AM EDT THU MAR 26 2015/
TEMPERATURE BUST POTENTIAL ALERT FOR SATURDAY
AFTERNOON...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE CWA.
GFS AND NAM START THE PERIOD WITH DEEP TROF ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE
REGION AND BACKSIDE SHORTWAVE DIVING SOUTHEAST AND DEEP MOISTURE
MOVING THROUGH THE MID MS VALLEY. BOTH GFS AND NAM GUIDANCE
SUGGESTING LOW END RAIN CHANCES WITH THIS FEATURE LATE SAT AM INTO
THE AFTERNOON. GIVEN THE VERY COLD THERMAL PROFILE ACROSS THE
AREA...ANY SATURATION OF THE COLUMN WOULD KEEP TEMPS A GOOD 10
DEGREES BELOW CURRENT FORECAST AS A RESULT OF ANY PRECIP FALLING
THROUGH THE LAYER. ITS A GOOD THING WE ARE IN LATE MARCH AFTER
LOOKING AT THE GFS SOUNDINGS FOR SATURDAY. HAVE PUT LOW POPS IN TO
ACCOUNT WITH LIGHT RAIN MENTION...BUT NOT ALL MODELS AS BULLISH
WITH THE DEEP MOISTURE AND BACKSIDE SHORTWAVE AKA SREF AND ECMWF.
FOR NOW..WILL KEEP LOW POP MENTION AND HOLD TEMPS IN THE 50`S
AREAWIDE. AS AN FYI...RECORD LOW MAX TEMP AT CSG ON SATURDAY IS
48.

COLDEST MORNING STILL APPEARS TO BE SUNDAY MORNING WITH BEST
RADIATIONAL COOLING AREAWIDE. GENERAL FREEZING LINE RUNNING FROM
NEWNAN TO PEACHTREE CITY TO ATHENS AND POINTS NORTH. WILL CERTAINLY
HAVE TO CONSIDER FROST/FREEZE CONCERNS GIVEN CLEAR SKIES...LIGHT
WINDS...AND HIGHER RH VALUES...EVEN IN AREAS ACROSS THE SOUTH...AS
FROST CAN OCCUR IN AIR TEMPS ABOVE FREEZING.  STILL NOT FORECASTING
RECORD TEMPS BUT WILL CERTAINLY BE WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF THE
RECORDS AT ALL SITES.

GFS AND ECMWF IN BETTER AGREEMENT TODAY OVER ANOTHER FRONT MOVING
THROUGH THE AREA ON MONDAY.  HAVE PUT RAIN CHANCES IN THE FORECAST
STARTING MONDAY AM...ALBEIT LOW CHANCES WITH NO MENTION OF THUNDER.
MODELS DIVERGE A BIT ON TUESDAY DESPITE HAVING THE SAME GENERAL
NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN ACROSS THE REGION.  GFS MORE BULLISH WITH
BRINGING A STRONG SHORTWAVE EASTWARD OUT OF TEXAS AND THUS MUCH MORE
AVAILABLE MOISTURE FOR GENERAL SHOWERS/LOW END POPS ACROSS THE AREA.
 ECMWF HAS ALMOST NO ACCOUNTING OF THIS FEATURE THUS PITTING THE
FORECAST BETWEEN A GENERALLY DRY ONE VS A WET FORECAST TUESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY OF NEXT WEEK.  FOR NOW...HAVE CHANCE POPS IN EACH
DAY AND FAVOR THE GFS AS IT HAS BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH THIS
FEATURE FOR SEVERAL DAYS NOW. SHORTWAVE...PER GFS...APPROACHES LATE
WED INTO THU AND THUS POPS WILL INCREASE A BIT MORE.  KEEPING
THUNDER OUT FOR NOW...BUT WILL HAVE TO SEE HOW THIS FEATURE EVOLVES.

STELLMAN

AVIATION... 12Z UPDATE... PLENTY OF IFR AND EVEN A LITTLE LIFR
TO GO AROUND THIS MORNING AS LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES TO
PUMP IN HIGH AMOUNTS OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. THIS SHOULD BEGIN TO
LIFT AS FLOW BECOMES SOUTHWEST BY MID MORNING AND AIDS IN
IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR. MAINLY SHRA AS FRONT MOVES THROUGH THIS
EVENING BUT ISOLATED TSRA WILL ALSO BE PRESENT AND IF CHANCES
CONTINUE TO INCREASE...WILL NEED TO ADD TO SUBSEQUENT TAF.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...12Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM ON LIFR POTENTIAL AND DURATION.
HIGH ON REMAINING ELEMENTS.

DEESE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          80  52  64  34 /  40  60  40   5
ATLANTA         75  50  57  34 /  50  70  20   5
BLAIRSVILLE     73  43  52  27 /  40  80  20  10
CARTERSVILLE    76  47  57  32 /  60  80  10   5
COLUMBUS        72  52  63  39 /  60  50  20   0
GAINESVILLE     75  50  56  33 /  40  70  20   0
MACON           73  55  64  37 /  60  40  40   0
ROME            78  45  57  31 /  80  80  10   5
PEACHTREE CITY  77  51  62  34 /  50  60  20   5
VIDALIA         80  59  67  41 /  60  60  60   5

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM....ATWELL
AVIATION...11



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