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Area Forecast Discussion

FXUS62 KFFC 270813

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
413 AM EDT SAT AUG 27 2016

.SHORT TERM /Today through Sunday/...

Weak mid/upper-level wave that spawned a round of late evening
convection across the north has lifted northwest of the state
early this morning. Upper ridge remains the dominant feature
through this forecast period. Medium range models continue to show
a minimum of convection today with noticeable drying in the mid
levels. I have gone just a bit above guidance POPs across the
north today. For Sunday...Moisture increases as a moderate
easterly wave approaches the Carolina/Georgia coast under the
upper ridge. This should result in some increase in precipitation
potential...but coverage is still expected to remain scattered at
best with better chances across the north and east. With the
Atlantic origin of the low-level airmass... instability remains
limited and severe thunderstorm potential remains low. Daytime
temperatures will remain above seasonal normals through the period
as well.


.LONG TERM /Sunday Night through Friday/...

The extended period starts out with a close eye on the tropics as
high pressure just to the north results in a fairly active
easterly flow from the mid Atlantic Coasts southward. As a
result... long range models show good agreement with position of a
couple of tropical waves by early Monday... one pushing into the
southeast Gulf and another approaching the Carolina/Georgia
coasts. Overall consensus of the various NHC tropical models take
the weak Gulf wave/low into the central Gulf by Tuesday. At the
same time... long range models meander the aforementioned Atlantic
wave near the GA and NE FL coasts on Tuesday. Then the GFS and
ECMWF show a long wave frontal trough pushing east of the MS and
lifting both tropical low pressure systems northeast by Wednesday
and Thursday ahead of a cold front that slips into north GA
Wednesday night... then possibly into central GA sometime on
Thursday. During this time... models show the Gulf low tracking
across south GA and north FL Wednesday-Thursday... suggesting the
next best rain chances will be the middle of next week as this
frontal boundary interacts with the gulf low and associated gulf
moisture. Drier/cooler conditions may be on tap for the end of
next week as long range models show surface high pressure
building over the OH and TN Valleys by Friday of next week. All
depends on just how far south the aforementioned frontal boundary
gets pushed...so stay tuned.

Otherwise... will continue to show isolated to low scattered
coverage of mainly diurnally driven convection each day... with
a slight increase in rain chances still warranted for the middle
of next week. Expecting high temperatures to remain mostly in the
upper 80s to lower-mid 90s while lows hold mostly in the 70s...
except some 60s in the mountains.



/Issued at 130 AM EDT SAT AUG 27 2016/
06Z Update...
VFR conditions are expected to predominate across the forecast
area through the majority of this forecast period. Will see some
local MVFR or lower visibilities developing between 06Z and
14Z...mainly in traditionally fog-prone areas. Only TAF sites
where I believe there is enough potential for a mention is
KAHN...KPDK and KRYY where evening precipitation occurred.
Isolated to scattered convection is likely again across the
northern portion of the forecast area this afternoon and
evening...generally between 18Z and 02Z. Right now I believe
chances are too low as far south as the TAF sites to include in
this forecast. Winds will remain easterly...5KT or less through
14Z then increasing to 2-12kt after.

//ATL Confidence...06Z Update...

High on all elements.



Athens          94  72  91  71 /  20  10  30  20
Atlanta         93  74  91  73 /  20  10  30  20
Blairsville     90  67  86  65 /  30  20  30  30
Cartersville    94  71  92  71 /  20  20  30  20
Columbus        94  73  93  74 /   5   5  20  10
Gainesville     92  73  88  71 /  20  20  30  20
Macon           94  70  92  72 /   5   0  20  20
Rome            95  70  92  71 /  30  20  30  20
Peachtree City  93  69  91  70 /  10   5  20  20
Vidalia         96  73  93  73 /  10   5  30  20





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