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Area Forecast Discussion

120
FXUS62 KFFC 222330
AFDFFC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
730 PM EDT FRI JUL 22 2016



.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 230 PM EDT FRI JUL 22 2016/

SHORT TERM /Tonight through Saturday Night/...

Morning sounding showed decreased moisture and instability across
the area today... with 1.48 pw`s and around 2000-2500 J/KG of
afternoon mucape. This coupled with high pressure influence aloft
and the airmass needing to recharge from scattered to numerous
storms seen on Thursday all suggest a much less active storm day
this afternoon and evening. Will show low scattered pops across far
north GA and parts of central GA where models show a few storms
could develop during max heating. Any afternoon/evening convection
will quickly dissipate by 9-10 pm this evening with loss of daytime
heating. Expecting a bit more coverage of storms on Saturday as
models agree on an upper disturbance pushing down from the north by
late Saturday morning... or at least in time for afternoon heating.
Not expecting widespread severe storms on Saturday and SPC shows
just general thunder for Saturday at this time... but as usual... we
can expect at least a few strong to possibly severe storms during
peak heating... mainly between 2 pm and 8 pm... so don`t let your
guard down just because we are in a general thunder outlook.

Not expecting much of a fog threat tonight with a drier air mass and
less coverage of wet grounds expected through this evening.

Otherwise... continued to lean toward persistence for lows... and
took a mav and met blend for highs on Saturday. Also... increased
pops slightly for Saturday afternoon/evening as the approaching
disturbance should increase storm coverage.

39

LONG TERM /Sunday through Friday/...

No significant changes made to the long term forecast trends with
this update. Medium range models continue to keep Georgia under
varying degrees of upper-level ridging through the majority of the
forecast period. 12Z runs still showing an easterly wave sweeping
through late in the weekend and early next week...however latest run
keeps this an open wave and is a bit further south so overall impact
is still a bit uncertain. Sunday has the potential to need a Heat
Advisory...but this will be highly dependent on how much cloud cover
we see in advance of the easterly wave. The remainder of the period
should see temperatures continuing a bit above seasonal normals with
scattered...mainly diurnal...convection each day. Please see the
previous long term forecast discussion below.

20

Previous Discussions.../Issued at 338 AM EDT FRI JUL 22 2016/

LONG TERM /Saturday Night through Thursday/... The long term starts
off with a persistent pattern as an upper ridge continues over the
area Saturday night and Sunday. The fly in the ointment for Sunday is
an easterly wave is forecast to move over FL and this could affect
central GA with a little more convective activity then is currently
forecast. Otherwise mainly diurnal showers and storms for Saturday
evening and Sunday afternoon. Another hot day on Sunday is expected
with most high temperatures expected in the 90s except 80s for
portions of the mountains. Heat indices for a large portion of east
and central GA will be in the 103-108 range.

The easterly wave moves into the gulf of Mexico near the coast for
Monday and the upper ridge weakens some. The upper ridge remains
weaker for Tuesday and Wednesday. The GFS and European differ for
Thursday with the GFS transitioning the upper pattern to an upper
trough approaching the area with the European slower in doing so.
This will lead to a continuation of showers and storms that will be
mostly diurnal in nature. Highs in the 90s can be expected for much
of this period except for 80s over portions of the mountains. High
temperatures will become less hot as the week progresses.

BDL


&&

.AVIATION...
00Z Update...
ISO/SCT shra/tsra moving into the metro area this evening. Will
keep a vc and a tempo in for two hours. Not expecting the activity
to linger much after sunset. If rain does occur at ATL, then the
potential for low cigs will increase, but will not include in the
TAF at this time. Winds should remain on the west side through the
period.

//ATL Confidence...00Z Update...
Med confidence all elements.



&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          74  97  74  97 /  20  30  20  30
Atlanta         75  94  76  94 /  20  30  20  40
Blairsville     68  90  69  90 /  30  30  30  50
Cartersville    73  95  73  95 /  20  30  30  40
Columbus        74  96  75  95 /  30  30  20  40
Gainesville     73  94  75  94 /  30  30  20  40
Macon           74  98  74  97 /  30  30  20  30
Rome            73  95  73  95 /  20  30  30  40
Peachtree City  72  95  73  94 /  20  30  20  40
Vidalia         73  97  75  96 /  30  20  20  30

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...
AVIATION...



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