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Area Forecast Discussion

455
FXUS62 KFFC 210019 AAB
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
719 PM EST SAT DEC 20 2014

.UPDATE...

UPPED POPS ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH SOME FOR THIS EVENING BASED ON
INCREASING COVERAGE SEEN ON REGIONAL RADARS. PRECIPITATION IS VERY
LIGHT AND MUCH IS NOT REACHING THE SURFACE...HOWEVER OUR POPS WERE
VERY LOW FOR THE EVENING. MADE A FEW MINOR CHANGES TO WINDS AND SKIES
AS WELL...BUT NOTHING SIGNIFICANT. THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST
GRIDS LOOK GOOD.

20

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 645 PM EST SAT DEC 20 2014/

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
WIDESPREAD CLOUDINESS CONTINUES OVER THE AREA WITH VERY WEAK
ISENTROPIC LIFT STILL LINGERING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST IN THE WAKE OF
THE WEAK FRONT THAT PUSHED THE LIGHT RAIN THROUGH THIS MORNING.
NEARLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT IN PLACE OVER THE SOUTHEAST BUT WITH
SHORTWAVE BEGINNING TO DEEPEN OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. EXPECT
WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER TO CONTINUE TONIGHT WITH LOWS EXPECTED
SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL AS A RESULT.

YET ANOTHER SURFACE LOW WILL DEVELOP IN THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO
WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF MOISTURE OVERSPREADING THE SOUTHEAST
TOMORROW...BUT 12Z GUIDANCE IS KEEPING THE PRECIPITATION CONFINED TO
CENTRAL GEORGIA AND POINTS SOUTH. HAVE KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
ACROSS CENTRAL GEORGIA. SURFACE HIGH PUSHES EAST ACROSS SOUTHEAST
CANADA AND BEGINS TO DAM DOWN THE EASTERN SEABOARD SUNDAY AFTERNOON
IN A DIABATICALLY-ENHANCED CLASSICAL DAMMING SCENARIO. MEANWHILE...
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE BEGINS DEEPENING DOWN THE PLAINS PROGGED TO IMPACT
US MID-WEEK.

AS THE GULF SURFACE LOW CROSSES THE NORTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA...
FLOW TRANSITIONS TO SOUTHWEST ALOFT...WHILE ADDITIONAL AND MORE
IMPRESSIVE ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL ALLOW PRECIPITATION TO SPREAD INTO
NORTH GEORGIA BUT AT BEST IN THE FORM OF LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE.
CONFIDENCE NOT PARTICULARLY HIGH WITH MAX TEMPERATURES TOMORROW AS
HIGHS WILL DEPEND ON HOW SOLIDLY THE CAD ENTRENCHES ITSELF THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON HOURS...BUT LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE SUNDAY NIGHT BEFORE
THE CAD REALLY SETS UP IN EARNEST. RIGHT NOW HAVE TEMPS AT OR JUST
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL VALUES...LEANING TOWARD THE COOLER MAV VS MET
VALUES /00Z ECS COOLER STILL/.

MUCAPE VALUES NOT INDICATING MUCH IN THE WAY OF THUNDER POTENTIAL
EVEN FOR SOUTHERN ZONES SUNDAY AFTERNOON...SO CONTINUED TO KEEP
WORDING AT JUST RAIN FOR NOW. MORE INTERESTING WEATHER EVENT
FROM THE DEEPENING PLAINS TROUGH SETS UP INTO THE EXTENDED.

TDP

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HAVE MADE SLIGHT CHANGES WITH THE MID-WEEK SYSTEM DUE TO CONTINUED
TIMING SHIFTS OF THE MODELS. THE 06Z GFS RUN PUSHED THE TIMING BACK
INTO TUESDAY NIGHT/EARLY WEDNESDAY. THE 12Z GFS RUN NOW HAS THE COLD
FRONT ALONG THE GA/AL BORDER AT 12Z WEDNESDAY WHILE THE 12Z ECMWF
RUN IS JUST A LITTLE FASTER. THIS WOULD PUT THE BEST CHANCE OF
CONVECTION LATE TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY. THEREFORE WILL HOLD ONTO
CURRENT POPS MONDAY NIGHT, MINOR ADJUSTMENTS ON TUESDAY...AND
INCREASE POPS TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL ALSO AFFECT TEMPS
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AND HAVE MADE A FEW ADJUSTMENTS THERE.
AT THIS TIME THERE REMAINS INSTABILITY WITH THE FROPA AND WILL
CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE A POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS AND
PUSH THE TIMING BACK TO LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.

NO OTHER CHANGES ARE PLANNED AT THIS TIME.

17

AVIATION...
00Z UPDATE...

ALL AREAS MVFR OR LOWER CURRENTLY AND I EXPECT ALL AREAS TO BE IFR
OR LOWER BY 06Z. AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL GEORGIA THROUGH THE PERIOD...SPREADING NORTH THROUGH THE DAY
SUNDAY. NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS 8KT OR LESS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...00Z UPDATE...

HIGH ON MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS PERSISTING THROUGH THE PERIOD...
MEDIUM ON TIMING OF TRANSITIONS BETWEEN MVFR/IFR AND LIFR PERIODS.

20

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          39  51  41  50 /  10  40  60  60
ATLANTA         43  52  43  52 /  10  30  50  30
BLAIRSVILLE     36  49  39  48 /  10  20  60  60
CARTERSVILLE    36  52  42  52 /  10  30  30  20
COLUMBUS        45  55  46  59 /  20  40  50  40
GAINESVILLE     38  50  41  49 /  10  30  50  50
MACON           44  54  45  57 /  30  50  60  50
ROME            34  52  41  52 /  10  20  30  20
PEACHTREE CITY  39  52  42  55 /  10  40  50  30
VIDALIA         46  53  48  60 /  40  60  70  70

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...20
LONG TERM....NLISTEMAA
AVIATION...20



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