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Area Forecast Discussion

675
FXUS62 KFFC 240522
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
122 AM EDT THU APR 24 2014



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 951 PM EDT WED APR 23 2014/

UPDATE...

WITH SUCH LOW DEWPOINTS ACROSS THE AREA...TEMPS SHOULD DROP OFF
RATHER QUICKLY TONIGHT AS WINDS DIE OFF PROVIDING FOR EXCELLENT
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS. HAVE THEREFORE ADJUSTED DIURNAL
TREND IN TEMPS TONIGHT JUST SLIGHTLY BUT BY AND LARGE LEFT MIN
TEMPS AS IS.

FOR TOMORROW NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...NEW MODEL GUIDANCE HAS SOME
CONSENSUS ON LIKELY POPS MOVING INTO THE NW ZONES ALTHOUGH CAPE
WILL BE DIMINISHING. HAVE UPPED POPS ACCORDINGLY BUT GOING WITH
CHANCE THUNDER ALONG WITH THE LIKELY SHOWERS. CLOSE TO 40 KT LOW
LEVEL JET WITH THIS SYSTEM AT 925MB SO CANNOT RULE OUT A STRONG
STORM OVER THE FAR NORTHERN ZONES PRIMARILY.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 811 PM EDT WED APR 23 2014/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 348 PM EDT WED APR 23 2014/

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
DRIER AIR HAS PUSHED JUST SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA AS SEEN FROM
THE AFTERNOON CUMULUS THAT HAS DEVELOPED ALONG AND SOUTH OF OUR
SOUTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES. EXPECT DRY AIR AND UPPER RIDGE TO
DOMINATE THE AREA THROUGH THURSDAY. SOME RETURN MOISTURE BEGINNING
TOMORROW AFTERNOON AS WINDS SHIFT TO SOUTHEAST. NEXT SHORT WAVE
MOVING THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY TOMORROW NIGHT SHOULD BRING A CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS BEGINNING AROUND 06Z...MAINLY
OVER NORTHERN ZONES. BEST DYNAMICS LOOK CONCENTRATED ACROSS THAT
AREA...BUT INSTABILITY SEEMS MARGINAL. NOT EXPECTING SEVERE STORMS
AT THIS TIME. HAVE STAYED CLOSE TO A MAV/MET BLEND.

41

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
EXTENDED FORECAST CONTINUES TO LOOK GOOD...WITH ONLY MINOR CHANGES
TO UPDATE CURRENT GRID THINKING. MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE
FRONTAL SYSTEM PUSHING INTO THE STATE EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.
ALTHOUGH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED...COVERAGE IS
SIGNIFICANTLY LIMITED BY LACK OF AVAILABLE MOISTURE ACCOMPANYING
THE FRONT AS IT MOVES INTO EASTERN AND CENTRAL GEORGIA. NEXT BIG
RAIN PRODUCER STILL LOOKS TO BE EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH MODELS
STILL SUGGESTING WIDESPREAD 1-2 INCHES...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTH
GEORGIA. THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION IS INCLUDED BELOW...

31

/ISSUED 403 AM EDT WED APR 23 2014/
HIGH PRESSURE THAT DOMINATES THE SHORT TERM MOVES EAST OFF THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST AND BECOMES CENTERED JUST OFF THE CAROLINA/GEORGIA
COAST BY 00Z FRI. THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM TO AFFECT THE AREA
BEGINS DEVELOPING OVER THE PLAINS STATES WED AFTERNOON. THE MAIN
LOW CENTER DEEPENS AND MOVES NE TO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKE STATES
THU AFTERNOON. THE TAIL END OF THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT PUSHES
INTO NW GA BY 06Z TO 12Z FRI. THE MODELS ARE STILL SHOWING A
DECENT AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY WITH THE FRI SYSTEM SO STILL KEEPING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST. THE MODELS ARE ALSO
STILL NOT SHOWING MUCH AVAILABLE MOISTURE SO WE SHOULD NOT SEE ANY
ISSUES WITH FLOODING. THERE IS ANOTHER WEAKER FRONTAL BOUNDARY
THAT MOVES IN SAT MORNING WHICH HELPS TO REINFORCE THE FIRST ONE
AND KEEP A CHANCE OF PRECIP THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.
THIS PATTERN IS LOOKING MORE AND MORE LIKE A LIKE A SUMMERTIME
PATTERN THAN A SPRING PATTERN WITH DECENT CAPE AND LOW SHEAR.
STARTING FRIDAY...CAPES AND LIS PEAK EVERYDAY AROUND 18Z AND FALL
OFF RAPIDLY BY 00Z. TEMPS ALSO LOOK MORE LIKE SUMMER BEGINNING THU
WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 80S. LOWS WILL BE IN THE 50S AND 60S.

41

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z UPDATE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFFSHORE TODAY. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
BEGIN TO INCREASE...AND A SCT CU FIELD BTWN 050 AND 060 IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP. SKIES WILL GO BKN OVERNIGHT AS A FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. CURRENTLY...THE BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIP
WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE TERMINALS.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...06Z UPDATE...
HIGH CONFIDENCE ALL ELEMENTS.



&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          78  58  81  55 /   5  10  30   5
ATLANTA         76  60  78  58 /   5  10  10  10
BLAIRSVILLE     73  54  74  49 /   5  60  60  10
CARTERSVILLE    77  58  78  51 /   5  40  20  10
COLUMBUS        81  60  81  60 /   5  10  10  10
GAINESVILLE     73  59  77  55 /   5  20  60  10
MACON           81  59  83  58 /   5  10  10  10
ROME            77  57  78  51 /   5  60  20  10
PEACHTREE CITY  79  57  79  53 /   5  10  10  10
VIDALIA         81  62  83  63 /   5  10  10  10

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$






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