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Area Forecast Discussion

315
FXUS62 KFFC 261759
AFDFFC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
159 PM EDT TUE JUL 26 2016

...Updated due to Aviation Discussion...

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 725 AM EDT TUE JUL 26 2016/

SHORT TERM /Today through Wednesday/...

High pressure anchored along the SC coast will help to promote
southwesterly flow across the region. With no strong mid level
impulses, convection during the peak heating will not be well
organize. The area of which we may see a bit more coverage may be
along the northern tier with a weak Piedmont trough and perhaps
across the southwest with any seabreeze/weak impulse moving north
from the Panhandle. With fairly low CAPE values (around 1000J/kg),
convection may be limited with mainly showers/iso thunder and
isolated downburst given amble temperature/dew point spread.
Otherwise, anticipate a hot day on tap. Highs in the mid 90s apart
from upper 80s across the mountains.

Any precipitation activity should diminish after sunset; although
similar to last night, some elevated activity could continue a bit
later given enough lift and moisture. Clouds will decrease with
temperatures dropping into the low/mid 70s and upper 60s across
the mountains.

Wednesday will be similar to today, perhaps a degree or two cooler
as thickness values drop ever so slightly, 500mb winds become
more westerly and a bit more cloud cover in place. In addition, a
weak lee trough set up across the region with a high to the south
will yield a stronger pressure gradient with south winds around
10kts across the southern tier. Coverage for TSRA will be
scattered with no real mechanism for organized convection. Feel if
any location was to see more precipitation, it would be across the
northern half of the CWA given better convergence. For any
thunderstorm development, CAPE values are marginal, so anticipate
activity to be sub-severe. Highs in the low/mid 90s and mid/upper
80s across the mountains.

For both today and tomorrow, heat indices should stay below 105.

LONG TERM /Wednesday Night through Monday/...

Models remain in general agreement through the long term. The H5
ridge breaks down toward the end of the week as a short wave
deepens into a weak trough and remains nearly stationary over the
Mississippi Valley. This will increase moisture over the southeast
which in turn will increase the chances of showers/tstorms to the
CWA...mainly northwest GA beginning Thursday and continuing into
the weekend. The ridge begins to re-assert itself at the beginning
of next week however the chance of mainly afternoon and evening
showers/tsra will continue. With the increase in showers/tstorms
and clouds...max temps will be a little cooler than what we have
seen over the past several weeks however the rest of the CWA will
remain hot. Overnight lows will also remain warm through the long
term.


&&

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z Update...
Afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms are moving up from
the coast but they appear to be diminishing as they move north.
Will see this convective activity continue through the evening
hours then subside by 02z- 04z. have decided to pull the TEMPO
group out of the TAFs as it appears the precipitation will most
likely not make it to the TAF sites. Kept in a VCSH for a few
hours through just to be on the safe side. Winds are mainly out of
the W-SW and will stay there through the TAF period. Wind speeds
will stay 10kt or less with some gust to 15kt in and around TSRA
activity. Not expecting any issues with ceilings or VSBYs. Will
see another round of SHRA/TSRA Wed afternoon between 19z- 00z.

//ATL Confidence...18Z Update...
Confidence high on all elements.

01

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          96  73  95  75 /  20  10  20  20
Atlanta         93  74  92  74 /  20  10  20  20
Blairsville     88  67  88  70 /  40  20  30  30
Cartersville    94  72  93  73 /  30  20  30  30
Columbus        94  74  94  75 /  30  20  20  20
Gainesville     92  74  92  74 /  20  20  30  30
Macon           97  74  96  74 /  20  10  20  10
Rome            95  72  93  73 /  30  20  30  30
Peachtree City  93  72  92  72 /  20  10  20  20
Vidalia         97  75  97  76 /  20  10  20  10

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...01
LONG TERM....NListemaa
AVIATION...01



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