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Area Forecast Discussion

234
FXUS62 KFFC 301947
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
347 PM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
A GRADUAL SHIFT FROM THE PLEASANT WEATHER IS EXPECTED BY THE END OF
THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. THE COMBINATION OF A TRANSITIONING LONG WAVE
TROUGH OVER THE EAST COAST AND THE WEAKENING OF THE HIGH PRESSURE AT
THE SURFACE WILL PLACE THE REGION IN MOIST WEST-SOUTHWEST FLOW AS A
SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL IMPULSES IMPACT THE STATE. INCREASING CHANCES
OF RAIN ARE EXPECTED...WITH GENERALLY SLIGHT CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY /BEGINNING IN THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE
STATE AND SPREADING WESTWARD/ AND THEN CHANCE POPS THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY. THIS MOIST AND ACTIVE PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
INTO THE LONG TERM...BRINGING A CLOSE TO THE NICE WEATHER SEEN THE
LAST FEW DAYS.

NEAR NORMAL TO SLIGHT BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE STILL EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM...BUT FOR NOW...TEMPERATURES
SHOULD GENERALLY BE WELL ABOVE ANY BROKEN RECORDS WITH THE CURRENT
FORECAST.

31


.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WITH FLOW ALOFT SHIFTING THE SOUTHEAST AS THE AREA TRANSITIONS TO
THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE TROUGH...WET WEATHER WILL RETURN TO NORTH
AND CENTRAL GEORGIA FOR THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. THIS
WET PATTERN WILL REMAIN THROUGH THE LONG TERM AND THINKING FROM
THE PREVIOUS FORECAST IS STILL IN LINE WITH THE UPDATED FORECAST.
MAIN CHANGE WAS TO THE HIGH TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY TO WARM THEM A
DEGREE OR TWO ACROSS CENTRAL GEORGIA. IN ADDITION...GIVEN LATEST
GUIDANCE...HAVE CUT BACK ON POPS FOR TUESDAY NIGHT.

11

PREVIOUS LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
/ISSUED 406 AM EDT WED JUL 30 2014/
ABNORMALLY PLEASANT LATE JULY WEATHER TO COME TO AN END AT THE
START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD. LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER ERN CONUS
SLOWLY BEGINS TO FILL BUT AXIS REMAINS JUST TO OUR WEST THROUGH
TUESDAY. AS ALLUDED ABOVE...FRONT WILL WASH OUT LATE THURSDAY AS
WARM/MOIST ADVECTION KICKS IN AND PROVIDES SUFFICIENT LIFT AND
MOISTURE FOR SHRA/TSRA EVEN DURING NIGHTTIME PERIODS. NOT SEEING
ANY SIGN OF PARTICULARLY INTENSE OR PROLONGED STEADY RAINFALL.
BASIN AVERAGED RAINFALL SHOULD REMAIN AROUND 1/4 - 1/2 INCH WITH
LOCAL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 3 INCHES...PARTICULARLY ON FRIDAY WHEN WARM
ADVECTION IS STRONGEST. SIMILAR TO LAST WEEK...OVERALL PATTERN
FAVORABLE FOR AREAS OF SHRA/TSRA...SOME STRONG DURING PEAK IN
INSTABILITY...WITH DEEP MOISTURE AND MOST ADIABATIC LAPSE RATES IN
PLACE THRU TUES. THIS PATTERN SHOULD ALSO KEEP ANY POTENTIAL
TROPICAL SYSTEMS IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OFFSHORE...WELL EAST OF
US COAST. IN SPITE OF RECENT FRONTS LAST 30 DAYS...HAVE SIDED WITH
BIAS CORRECTED BLEND OF MOS AND WPC GUIDANCE FOR TEMPS.

SNELSON

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z UPDATE... VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
WINDS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ON THE EAST SIDE...WITH SOME FLUCTUATION
FROM ENE TO ESE POSSIBLE. WINDS WILL BE 5-7KT THROUGH THE
EVENING...THEN 5 KT OR LESS OVERNIGHT...AND 4-7KT ON THURSDAY.
EXPECT SCT CU BY MID-LATE MORNING. RAIN CHANCES ARE LOW ENOUGH NOT
TO INCLUDE IN THE TAF AT THIS TIME. EXPECT INCREASING CLOUDS
OVERNIGHT THURSDAY NIGHT.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...18Z UPDATE...
HIGH CONFIDENCE ON ALL ELEMENTS.

31

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          66  84  68  81 /  10  20  30  50
ATLANTA         67  83  67  81 /   5  20  30  50
BLAIRSVILLE     58  77  63  74 /  10  30  50  50
CARTERSVILLE    62  83  66  81 /   5  20  30  50
COLUMBUS        68  88  71  86 /   5  20  20  40
GAINESVILLE     66  80  66  77 /  10  30  40  50
MACON           67  88  70  86 /  10  20  20  40
ROME            61  84  67  81 /   5  20  30  50
PEACHTREE CITY  63  85  68  82 /   5  20  30  50
VIDALIA         71  90  73  89 /  20  20  20  40

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...31
LONG TERM....11
AVIATION...31





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