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Area Forecast Discussion

308
FXUS62 KFFC 301544
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
1144 AM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.UPDATE...MADE SOME MINOR MODIFICATIONS TO SKY GRIDS AS CLOUDS
HANGING ON A LITTLE LONGER...ESPECIALLY OVER CENTRAL GEORGIA.
OTHERWISE...GRIDS IN EXCELLENT SHAPE AND NO CHANGES PLANNED.

DEESE

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 725 AM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 332 AM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014/

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
EXCEPT FOR LOW CLOUDS OUT THERE THIS MORNING...EXPECTING A PRETTY
QUIET SHORT TERM FORECAST. SHORTWAVE AXIS HAS PUSHED EAST AND WITH
IT MOST OF THE RAIN...THOUGH SOME PATCHY DRIZZLE REMAINS AND WILL
LIKELY CONTINUE OFF AND ON FOR A FEW HOURS WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
BASICALLY CONFINED BELOW 750MB AND DRYING FROM THE TOP-DOWN THROUGH
SUNRISE. MAY SEE SOME AREAS OF DENSE FOG AS WELL ESPECIALLY OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS.

UPPER FLOW FLATTENS SOMEWHAT TODAY AND TONIGHT AS THE HIGHER
AMPLITUDE PATTERN REMAINS TO THE NORTH...LEAVING US IN JUST SOME
WEAK RIDGING ALOFT AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATING THE AREA...
WITH VERY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF SURFACE FLOW. EXPECT CLOUDS TO CLEAR
QUICKLY THIS MORNING LEAVING US WITH A PRETTY NICE DAY. WITH PRETTY
MUCH NEUTRAL ADVECTION IN PLACE...HIGHS TODAY SHOULD ACTUALLY BE A
TAD WARMER THAN SEASONAL AVERAGES WITH THE SLOWLY INCREASING
THICKNESSES. WILL DEFINITELY NOTICE A DIFFERENCE IN LOWS TONIGHT...
ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTH GEORGIA AND OUTLYING AREAS...JUST BECAUSE
LACK OF CLOUDS AND LOWER DEWPOINTS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO COOL
MORE THAN THE PAST FEW DAYS. ANOTHER ROUND OF FOG LIKELY TONIGHT
WITH SURFACE WINDS NEARLY CALM EVERYWHERE. AN EVEN WARMER DAY
EXPECTED TOMORROW AS WEAK RIDGING CONTINUES IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT
LONGWAVE SYSTEM...TO IMPACT US DURING THE EXTENDED. GENERALLY TOOK A
CONSENSUS BLEND FOR TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE SHORT TERM.

TDP

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE CWFA BY THE LATE WEEK.

HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO SHIFT OFFSHORE WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN ADVANCE OF
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THE FRONT SHOULD BEGIN TO CROSS THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER BY VERY EARLY FRIDAY MORNING AND APPROACH THE NW
CORNER OF THE CWFA BY MIDDAY FRIDAY. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT. SINCE THE MAIN MID LEVEL
FORCING GETS SHUNTED WELL NORTH OF THE CWFA...WILL KEEP OUT THE
MENTION OF SEVERE AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...SINCE THE FRONT WILL BE
COMING THROUGH THE AREA DURING PEAK HEATING AND THERE WILL BE SOME
GOOD SURFACE INSTABILITY...DO THINK A FEW OF THE STORMS COULD BE
STRONG. THE FRONT SHOULD CLEAR THE CWFA BY EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEKEND INTO THE
EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK. ACCOMPANYING THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE
COOLER TEMPS AND A DRIER AIRMASS. MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT IN
PROGGING MIDDLE 50S ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWFA FOR LOWS SUNDAY
NIGHT/MONDAY MORNING.

THE COOLER TEMPS SHOULD NOT LAST TOO LONG. RETURN FLOW OFF OF THE
GULF WILL BRING INCREASING MOISTURE AND TEMPS AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD
FRONT EXPECTED BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

NLISTEMAA

AVIATION...
12Z UPDATE...
MOSTLY MVFR CIGS THIS MORNING BUT A FEW PATCHES OF IFR OR LESS.
ALL SHOULD LIFT AND BEGIN CLEARING RAPIDLY AFTER SUNRISE. WILL
PROBABLY SEE FEW-SCT LOW VFR CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON BUT OTHERWISE
JUST SOME PASSING MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS. EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND
OF MVFR VSBY...POSSIBLY IFR IN SOME LOCATIONS...WEDNESDAY MORNING
AND HAVE INTRODUCED THIS EVERYWHERE BUT ATL. MAINLY NE WINDS TODAY
BUT DECREASING TO LGT/VRB LATE TODAY AND OVERNIGHT. BEST GUESS IS
WINDS SHOULD FAVOR SE ON WEDNESDAY WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF FEW-SCT
LOW VFR CU IN THE AFTERNOON.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...12Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM ON EARLY MORNING CIGS.
MEDIUM ON WIND DIRECTION WEDNESDAY.
HIGH ON ALL OTHER ELEMENTS.

TDP

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          80  61  85  63 /   5   5   5  10
ATLANTA         80  64  84  65 /   5   5   5   5
BLAIRSVILLE     78  54  81  58 /   5   5   5  10
CARTERSVILLE    82  57  85  63 /   5   5   5  10
COLUMBUS        83  66  86  68 /   5   5   5  10
GAINESVILLE     79  62  83  62 /   5   5   5  10
MACON           81  61  86  65 /   5   5   5   5
ROME            83  58  86  61 /   5   5   5   0
PEACHTREE CITY  81  58  84  63 /   5   5   5  10
VIDALIA         81  64  86  66 /   5   5   5  10

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DEESE
LONG TERM....11
AVIATION...DEESE





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