National Weather Service Weather Forecast Office

Area Forecast Discussion

013
FXUS62 KFFC 220800
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
400 AM EDT WED MAY 22 2013

.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TODAY
INTO TONIGHT. AN ASSOCIATED SHORT WAVE TRAILING INTO THE SOUTHERN
STATES WILL HELP FOCUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CWA
THROUGH TONIGHT. AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS CURRENTLY MOVING INTO ALABAMA
MAY REACH NORTHWEST GEORGIA BY SUNRISE IF THEY HOLD TOGETHER. THIS
COMBINED WITH VARIOUS OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES WILL MAKE TIMING OF
CONVECTION DIFFICULT. HOWEVER THE BEST CHANCES WOULD SEEM TO BE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH DIURNAL HEATING. HAVE CONTINUED WITH THE
SEVERE WORDING ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTH THIS AFTERNOON. THIS FITS
WELL WITH THE SPC SLIGHT RISK AREA. DIMINISHING POPS OVERNIGHT AS
THE SHORT WAVE MOVES INTO THE CAROLINAS. SOME DRYING INDICATED FOR
THURSDAY BUT WITH APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH...HAVE LEFT LOW POPS IN
ACROSS THE CWA. BASED ON TUESDAYS TEMPERATURES...HAVE STAYED ON THE
WARM SIDE OF MAV/MET. HOWEVER WITH ADDITIONAL CLOUDS AND
PRECIPITATION EXPECTED FOR TODAY...TEMPERATURES MAY VARY MORE ACROSS
THE CWA.

41

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A WEAK COLD FRONT AND MAIN UPPER SUPPORT WILL BE EXITING THE AREA
THURSDAY NIGHT. IT IS UNCLEAR HOW MUCH CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY THERE
WILL BE WITH THE GFS AND NAM INDICATING LITTLE OR NO MEASURABLE
RAIN AMOUNTS. LOOKS LIKE NO MORE THAN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE FIRST PART OF THURSDAY NIGHT.

MUCH DRIER AIRMASS MOVES OVER THE AREA ON FRIDAY WITH DRY NW FLOW
ALOFT AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE OH/TN VALLEYS
DURING THE DAY. GRADIENT WINDS WILL INCREASE GETTING CLOSE TO WIND
ADVISORY CRITERIA(20 MPH SUSTAINED) FOR SOME AREAS. DRY CONDITIONS
CONTINUE SATURDAY AND MOSTLY SUNDAY. HOWEVER THE NW FLOW ALOFT N OF
THE AREA IS BECOMING MORE ACTIVE WITH PRECIP CHANCES AND WHILE THE
GFS IS DRY FOR OUR AREA ON SUNDAY...MOISTURE IS SKIRTING NE GA. THE
EUROPEAN MEANWHILE IS INDICATING LIGHT PRECIP AMOUNTS OVER FAR N AND
E GA ON SUNDAY. A SIMILAR PATTERN CONTINUES FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY
AS WELL. HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT BUILDS FOR WEDNESDAY AND EVEN WILL
SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER THE AREA...HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL KEEP ANY
PRECIP CHANCES TO A MINIMUM. FOR NOW WILL FAVOR THE DRIER GFS.
TEMPERATURES GENERALLY RUNNING WITHIN 5 DEGREES OF NORMAL THROUGH
THE PERIOD EXCEPT SATURDAY MORNING LOWS ARE RUNNING 10-15 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL AND SUNDAY MORNING LOWS ARE RUNNING CLOSE TO 10
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

BDL

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z UPDATE...
SOME MID/HIGH CLOUDS LINGERING INTO THE MORNING HOURS. VISIBILITY
SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE 6SM...BUT MAY DROP TO MVFR MAINLY ATHENS AND
MACON. VFR DURING THE DAY TODAY EXCEPT IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
THERE MAY BE CONVECTION AROUND THE FORECAST AREA MUCH OF THE DAY BUT
THE BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDER AT ANY OF THE TAF SITES APPEARS TO BE
18Z AND INTO THE EARLY EVENING. VARIABLE TO LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS
THIS MORNING BECOMING SOUTHWEST 10KT AFTER 14Z.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...06Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ON TIMING OF CONVECTION.
HIGH CONFIDENCE ON ALL OTHER ELEMENTS.

41

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          87  65  87  59 /  40  40  30  20
ATLANTA         86  66  85  60 /  50  40  30  20
BLAIRSVILLE     80  61  80  55 /  60  60  30  20
CARTERSVILLE    84  63  84  57 /  60  60  30  20
COLUMBUS        90  67  89  63 /  30  30  30  20
GAINESVILLE     85  65  83  57 /  50  50  30  20
MACON           90  65  89  61 /  30  30  30  10
ROME            84  63  85  57 /  60  60  30  20
PEACHTREE CITY  86  62  86  59 /  40  30  30  20
VIDALIA         88  67  89  67 /  30  30  30  10

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...41
LONG TERM....BDL
AVIATION...41