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Area Forecast Discussion
423 FXUS62 KFFC 291749 AFDFFC Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Peachtree City GA 149 PM EDT MON AUG 29 2016 .PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 1137 AM EDT MON AUG 29 2016/ UPDATE... No changes planned to current forecast. Best chances for afternoon convection continue to be across portions of central and east- central GA, this afternoon into early evening. PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 725 AM EDT MON AUG 29 2016/ SHORT TERM /Today through Tuesday/... Main question through the short term forecast period will be impacts of the weak upper circulation settling into the Georgia/Carolina coastal region. System is weak to begin with and medium range models only continue to weaken the feature through the period. Little to no surface reflection associated with the center of the upper circulation to boot however moisture has increased through the lower and middle levels of the atmosphere over the region. Best chances for precipitation shift into east central and southeast Georgia but coverage is expected to only merit chance POPs at this point. Instability remains limited as well and thunderstorms are expected to remain below severe limits. LONG TERM /Tuesday Night through Sunday/... The long term period begins with continued at or below normal deep layer moisture values...especially across northern portions where PW`s will drop to around 1.30. These values along with a noticeable absence of strong forcing or instability will keep pops at slight chance for all of North GA through Wed. A surface front does move into portions of North GA for Thu which should increase mid level moisture values and along with overall cooling of the mid levels allow for more in the way of thunderstorm activity. Still nothing to impressive an at this point see no reason go any higher than low end chance. Much attention will continued to be payed to the tropics during this time period. Early track ensemble guidance is better clustered around a solution keeping the system well south of the area and in fact aiding in bringing in some drier and hopefully cooler air by the end of the week. GFS is more aggressive in the amplitude of the trough and the scouring out of moisture but both it and the ECMWF show some considerably cooler nighttime conditions for North GA for the weekend. As nice as that sounds to this forecaster...climo tells me the around 60 for this time of year is not all that likely and have trended temps up slightly over that of guidance. && .AVIATION... 18Z Update... VFR conditions will continue with SCT-BKN035-060 expected through 00Z, and SCT150 overnight. Could see some patchy fog in MCN/CSG depending upon how much rainfall they receive this afternoon. Will continue to monitor. Winds will remain east to southeast, with speeds 10G20kts this afternoon before diminishing to near 5 kts overnight. Isolated showers and thunderstorms possible mainly over central GA. Chances are too low to put into ATL area or AHN TAFs at this time. //ATL Confidence...18Z Update... Medium to high confidence on all elements. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Athens 91 70 91 71 / 20 20 20 20 Atlanta 91 71 90 73 / 20 20 20 20 Blairsville 86 64 88 65 / 20 20 20 10 Cartersville 93 70 93 69 / 20 20 20 10 Columbus 92 73 93 73 / 30 20 30 20 Gainesville 90 70 90 71 / 20 20 20 10 Macon 91 71 92 71 / 30 30 30 20 Rome 94 68 93 69 / 20 20 20 10 Peachtree City 91 70 90 69 / 20 20 20 20 Vidalia 91 73 92 73 / 30 30 40 30 && .FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM... AVIATION...