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Area Forecast Discussion

340
FXUS62 KFFC 232207
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
507 PM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.UPDATE...
UPDATE FOR TORNADO WATCH COUNTIES LISTED BELOW.

31


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 237 PM EST SUN NOV 23 2014/

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
SFC OBSERVATIONS SHOW EAST WINDS ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA INDICATING
THE WEDGE IS STILL IN PLACE. DESPITE THE MORE STABLE AIRMASS IN
PLACE WITH THE WEDGE...THUNDERSTORMS HAVE STILL BEEN ABLE TO MAKE IT
INTO NORTH GEORGIA. ALTHOUGH SOME AREAS ARE SEEING A BREAK IN THE
PRECIPITATION ACROSS CENTRAL GA...ANOTHER ROUND IS ALREADY MOVING
INTO WEST CENTRAL GEORGIA THAT WILL BRING ADDITIONAL PRECIP. THIS
NEXT ROUND WILL SHIFT EAST ACROSS THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON INTO
TONIGHT AS THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE LIFTS ACROSS THE TN VALLEY.
THIS WILL RESULT IN POPS DECREASING OVERNIGHT. HI-RES MODELS ARE
SIMILAR IN THAT THEY DO NOT CLEAR OUT ALL THE POPS OVERNIGHT AND
THUS HAVE CONTINUED THE MENTION OF PRECIP ACROSS EASTERN AND
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL GEORGIA.

BETTER INSTABILITY IS BEGINNING TO CREEP ITS WAY NORTHWARD WITH 500
J/KG JUST SOUTH OF THE CWA ACCORDING TO SPC MESOANALYSIS. IN
ADDITION....THERE IS A GOOD AMOUNT OF LL WIND SHEAR WITH 40KTS
ACROSS THE SE PART OF THE CWA /CSG TO MCN TO LGR AREA/. WITH ENOUGH
CAPE COMBINED WITH THE HIGHER SHEAR VALUES...THE SE PART OF THE CWA
IS MOST LIKELY TO SEE SEVERE WEATHER. THE THREAT OF TORNADOES
REMAINS AND A TORNADO WATCH WAS ISSUED FOR A PORTION OF THE AREA.
STILL THE POTENTIAL TO SEE SOME STRONG TO SEVERE WEATHER NORTH AND
EAST OF THE WATCH...WATCH AREA IS JUST MOST LIKELY AT THIS TIME.

WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW IN PLACE TONIGHT...WILL SEE WARMER LOW
TEMPERATURES FOR MONDAY MORNING. THIS WILL BE THE LAST NIGHT OF THE
WARMER TEMPS AS THEY DIP BACK DOWN INTO THE 30S AND 40S FOR TUESDAY
MORNING...AFTER THE SFC FRONT MOVES THROUGH ON MONDAY. WILL START
THE DAY TOMORROW WITH LOW CLOUDS ACROSS THE AREA BUT THIS SHOULD
SCATTER OUT BY LATE MORNING. THIS WILL SLOW THE WARMING TREND MONDAY
MORNING...BUT WITH THE CLOUDS SCATTERING AND THE CWA REMAINING IN SW
FLOW...HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB INTO THE MID 60S TO UPPER 70S.
FOR CENTRAL GEORGIA...THIS IS A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST.

11

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MODELS IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE LONG TERM. THE NEXT SYSTEM
TO AFFECT THE CWA WILL ARRIVE LATE TUESDAY AND INTO TUESDAY NIGHT
AND WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL BRING LIKELY POPS TO THE SOUTHEAST PART OF
THE CWA WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS TO THE NORTHWEST. TEMPERATURES
TUESDAY NIGHT SHOULD REMAIN WARM ENOUGH FOR THE PRECIP TO REMAIN IN
THE FORM OF RAIN ACROSS NORTH GA...ALTHOUGH AT THOSE PEAKS ABOVE
3500 COULD SEE A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW...HOWEVER AT THIS TIME NO
ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED. THIS SYSTEM WILL EXIT WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE
ECMWF IS SHOWING A FINGER OF MOISTURE SKIRTING THE EXTREME NORTHERN
COUNTIES WEDNESDAY EVENING WHILE THE GFS IS KEEPING THE CWA DRY. AT
THIS TIME WILL LEAVE OUT ANY PRECIP FOR EXTREME NORTH GA WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. THE REST OF THE LONG TERM WILL BE DRY WITH A WARMING TREND AS
THE H5 FLOW TRENDS TOWARD A ZONAL FLOW.

17

HYDROLOGY...
HAVE ALREADY SEEN UP TO AN INCH AND A HALF OF RAINFALL
ACROSS NORTH GEORGIA AND ONE TO TWO INCHES OF RAINFALL ACROSS
CENTRAL GEORGIA. HAVE NOT HAD ANY FLOODING ISSUES SO FAR. WITH AN
ADDITIONAL INCH EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA...COULD SEE LOCALIZED
FLOODING AS A RESULT.

AVIATION...
18Z UPDATE...
RAIN CONTINUES TO SPREAD ACROSS THE NORTHERN TAF SITES. THERES A
BREAK IN THE PRECIP AT MCN AND CSG BUT SHOULD SEE ADDITIONAL RA
LATER. COULD SEE A SHORT BREAK AT NORTHERN TAF SITES TOO LATER
THIS AFTERNOON. TSRA COVERAGE IS LIMITED BUT WITH CONVECTION
MAKING IT FURTHER NORTH THAN EXPECTED...HAVE CONTINUED TEMPO IN
THE ATL SITES. CIGS AND VSBYS WILL DECREASE OVERNIGHT...BUT
HAVENT GONE QUITE AS LOW AS GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING AT ATL. WIND
SHIFT AT ATL IN THE 00-04Z TIMEFRAME.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...18Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ON WIND DUE TO WIND SHIFT TIMING. LOW CONFIDENCE
ON CIGS AND VSBYS.

11

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          54  70  41  57 / 100  20  10  10
ATLANTA         55  69  41  55 /  90  10  10   5
BLAIRSVILLE     50  64  36  52 / 100  30  10   5
CARTERSVILLE    52  67  37  54 /  70  10  10   5
COLUMBUS        60  74  44  57 /  90  20  10  10
GAINESVILLE     52  67  41  54 / 100  20  10   5
MACON           60  76  44  58 / 100  30  10  20
ROME            52  66  35  55 /  60  10  10   5
PEACHTREE CITY  53  69  38  56 /  90  10  10  10
VIDALIA         66  77  52  60 / 100  30  20  40

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TORNADO WATCH UNTIL 8 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: BIBB...BLECKLEY...CRAWFORD...CRISP...DODGE...DOOLY...
HOUSTON...LAURENS...MACON...PEACH...PULASKI...SCHLEY...SUMTER...
TALBOT...TAYLOR...TELFAIR...TWIGGS...UPSON...WHEELER...WILCOX...
WILKINSON.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...31
LONG TERM....DEESE
AVIATION...31



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