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Area Forecast Discussion

423
FXUS62 KFFC 291749
AFDFFC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
149 PM EDT MON AUG 29 2016

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 1137 AM EDT MON AUG 29 2016/

UPDATE...
No changes planned to current forecast. Best chances for afternoon
convection continue to be across portions of central and east-
central GA, this afternoon into early evening.

PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 725 AM EDT MON AUG 29 2016/

SHORT TERM /Today through Tuesday/...

Main question through the short term forecast period will be impacts
of the weak upper circulation settling into the Georgia/Carolina
coastal region. System is weak to begin with and medium range models
only continue to weaken the feature through the period. Little to no
surface reflection associated with the center of the upper
circulation to boot however moisture has increased through the lower
and middle levels of the atmosphere over the region. Best chances
for precipitation shift into east central and southeast Georgia but
coverage is expected to only merit chance POPs at this point.
Instability remains limited as well and thunderstorms are expected
to remain below severe limits.

LONG TERM /Tuesday Night through Sunday/...

The long term period begins with continued at or below normal deep
layer moisture values...especially across northern portions where
PW`s will drop to around 1.30. These values along with a
noticeable absence of strong forcing or instability will keep pops
at slight chance for all of North GA through Wed.

A surface front does move into portions of North GA for Thu which
should increase mid level moisture values and along with overall
cooling of the mid levels allow for more in the way of
thunderstorm activity. Still nothing to impressive an at this
point see no reason go any higher than low end chance.

Much attention will continued to be payed to the tropics during
this time period. Early track ensemble guidance is better
clustered around a solution keeping the system well south of the
area and in fact aiding in bringing in some drier and hopefully
cooler air by the end of the week.

GFS is more aggressive in the amplitude of the trough and the
scouring out of moisture but both it and the ECMWF show some
considerably cooler nighttime conditions for North GA for the
weekend. As nice as that sounds to this forecaster...climo tells
me the around 60 for this time of year is not all that likely and
have trended temps up slightly over that of guidance.

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z Update...
VFR conditions will continue with SCT-BKN035-060 expected through
00Z, and SCT150 overnight. Could see some patchy fog in MCN/CSG
depending upon how much rainfall they receive this afternoon.
Will continue to monitor. Winds will remain east to southeast,
with speeds 10G20kts this afternoon before diminishing to near 5
kts overnight. Isolated showers and thunderstorms possible mainly
over central GA. Chances are too low to put into ATL area or AHN
TAFs at this time.

//ATL Confidence...18Z Update...
Medium to high confidence on all elements.



&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          91  70  91  71 /  20  20  20  20
Atlanta         91  71  90  73 /  20  20  20  20
Blairsville     86  64  88  65 /  20  20  20  10
Cartersville    93  70  93  69 /  20  20  20  10
Columbus        92  73  93  73 /  30  20  30  20
Gainesville     90  70  90  71 /  20  20  20  10
Macon           91  71  92  71 /  30  30  30  20
Rome            94  68  93  69 /  20  20  20  10
Peachtree City  91  70  90  69 /  20  20  20  20
Vidalia         91  73  92  73 /  30  30  40  30

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...
AVIATION...



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