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Area Forecast Discussion

515
FXUS62 KFFC 271723
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
123 PM EDT MON APR 27 2015

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1015 AM EDT MON APR 27 2015/

UPDATE...

WILL JUST BE UPDATING THE DIURNAL CURVE THIS MORNING WHICH WAS
THROWN OFF SLIGHTLY BY LOW CLOUDS ACROSS THE AREA WHICH HAVE SINCE
DISSIPATED. OTHERWISE...FORECAST GRIDS IN GOOD SHAPE ON THIS FINE
SPRING DAY AND NO CHANGES ARE PLANNED.

DEESE

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 729 AM EDT MON APR 27 2015/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 326 AM EDT MON APR 27 2015/

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTHWARD TODAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
DRY WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES.

CLOUDS BEGIN TO INCREASE OVERNIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CURRENTLY
ACROSS SOUTHERN TEXAS EMERGES INTO THE NORTHERN GULF AND MOVES
EASTWARD. BY TUESDAY...THIS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM BEGINS TO PUSH EAST
ALONG THE GULF COAST...BRINGING THE NEXT ROUND OF PRECIPITATION.

RAIN CHANCES REALLY BEGIN TO INCREASE IN THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST
DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY. VERY LITTLE INSTABILITY WITH THIS
SYSTEM...SO HAVE ONLY ADDED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER FOR TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. WITH ALL OF THE CLOUD COVER AND SHOWERS...TEMPS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 5 TO 7 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR.

MOST OF THE QPF FOR THIS SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY EXPECTED TO FALL JUST
OUTSIDE OF THE SHORT TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST. UP TO THREE
QUARTERS OF AN INCH OF RAIN IS POSSIBLE IN THE FAR SW ON TUESDAY.

NLISTEMAA

LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
STILL ONE MAIN SYSTEM TO FOCUS ON FOR THE LONG TERM. CLOSED UPPER
LEVEL LOW SLIDES FROM THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY TUESDAY NIGHT WHILE THE SFC LOW SLIDES ALONG THE GULF
COAST. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN RAIN SPREADING ACROSS THE CWA AT THE
BEGINNING OF THE LONG TERM AND TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY STILL
LOOK TO BE THE MOST LIKELY TIME PERIOD FOR PRECIPITATION. AS THE
SFC LOW TRACKS INTO THE ATLANTIC...RAIN SHOULD END BY FRIDAY.
THERE STILL REMAIN SOME DIFFERENCES IN HOW THE ECMWF AND THE GFS
ARE RESOLVING FEATURES WITH THIS SYSTEM /ESPECIALLY IN TERMS OF
THE SFC LOW TRACK ONCE IT MOVES INTO THAT ATLANTIC AND THE UPPER
LEVEL SHORTWAVE AS IT TRACKS ACROSS THE EAST/ BUT THE MAJORITY OF
THE TIME THE TWO MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT ON THE WEATHER
IMPACTS FOR THE CWA. INSTABILITY VALUES ARE A LITTLE BIT HIGHER
THAN HAVE BEEN NOTED IN PREVIOUS RUNS WITH MUCAPE VALUES EXCEEDING
1000 J/KG ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION...THE HIGHER VALUES
SPREAD FURTHER NORTHWARD. WITH THIS FORECAST HAVE INCLUDED THAN
MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS FURTHER NORTHWARD /INTO THE SOUTHERN AND
WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE ATL METRO AREA/ COMPARED TO THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR THE WEEKEND...ALLOWING FOR DRY
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE CWA.

11

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z UPDATE...
MVFR HAS LIFTED ACROSS ALL TAF SITES WHICH WERE IMPACTED AND
ANTICIPATE VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS TAF PERIOD.
INCREASING CHANCES FOR -RA FOR THE END OF THE TAF
PERIOD...ESPECIALLY FOR CSG BUT SHOULD STILL BE VFR. KEEPING WIND
SHIFT AT ATL AS IS AT AROUND 05Z.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...18Z UPDATE...
HIGH ON ALL ELEMENTS.

DEESE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          73  50  70  51 /   5   5  40  70
ATLANTA         72  52  68  52 /   0   5  60  70
BLAIRSVILLE     66  42  66  47 /   0   5  50  70
CARTERSVILLE    70  47  69  51 /   0   5  60  80
COLUMBUS        77  57  70  56 /   0  20  70  70
GAINESVILLE     71  50  67  51 /   0   5  50  70
MACON           75  54  70  54 /   0   5  60  70
ROME            70  47  69  51 /   0   5  60  70
PEACHTREE CITY  73  50  68  52 /   0   5  60  80
VIDALIA         76  58  71  58 /   5   5  50  70

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DEESE
LONG TERM....20
AVIATION...DEESE



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