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Area Forecast Discussion

547
FXUS62 KFFC 270604 AAC
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
100 AM EST THU NOV 27 2014


.UPDATE...
STRONG SHORTWAVE DIVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH THIS
EVENING. REGIONAL RADAR SHOWS SOME PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS FEATURE. CURRENT FORECAST STILL ON TRACK...AND HAVE ONLY MADE
SOME MINOR CHANGES TO THE HOURLY TEMPS/DEWS.

&&


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 713 PM EST WED NOV 26 2014/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 218 PM EST WED NOV 26 2014/

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
LATEST REGIONAL SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS SEASONABLY COOL
TEMPERATURES ACROSS MOST OF GEORGIA WITH MOST AREAS IN THE LOWER
50S ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER. MORE IMPRESSIVE HAS BEEN THE
DEWPOINT DROP ACROSS THE AREA WITH LOWER 20S TO EVEN SOME UPPER
TEENS MIXING DOWN WITH GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS. TO THE
WEST...LIGHTER SOUTHWEST WINDS NOTED OVER PORTIONS OF ALABAMA IN
ADVANCE OF SWIFTLY MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGH. EARLIER THINKING
LOOKING AT CROSS SECTIONS AND SHORT TERM MODEL REFLECTIVITY PROGS
WAS THAT AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE WOULD PRODUCE MORE LOW LEVEL
CLOUDS AND PRECIP THAN MOS GUIDANCE WOULD INDICATE. UPSTREAM OBS
HOWEVER HAVE YET TO BEAR THAT OUT WITH JUST A HANDFUL OF OBS OVER
THE MISSOURI AND MISSISSIPPI VALLEYS YIELDING PRECIP. WILL NOT
PULL BACK COMPLETELY ON PRECIP JUST YET BUT WILL REDUCE SLIGHTLY
SHOULD THESE TRENDS CONTINUE.

FOR TONIGHT...GIVEN LACK OF PRECIP...SHOULD NOT HAVE A PROBLEM
WITH WINTRY PRECIP INITIALLY WITH A MIX STARTING IN THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS BUT HAVING A HARD TIME REACHING THE GROUND AT THE
ONSET. BUFKIT SOUNDING INDICATES EVEN BRASSTOWN WILL REMAIN ABOVE
FREEZING REGARDLESS OF THE PRECIP MAKEUP FOR THIS EVENING WITH NO
ACCUMULATION PROBLEMS ANTICIPATED. AS WE APPROACH 12Z AND
SECONDARY SHORTWAVE MOVES IN...COULD SEE ANOTHER BATCH OF VERY
LIGHT PRECIP PRIMARILY ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. WOULD EXPECT
THIS TO BE MORE IN THE FORM OF LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES WITH
A BETTER CHANCE OF STICKING TO ROADWAYS GIVEN TEMPS FALLING BELOW
FREEZING. THAT SAID...GIVEN QPF AMOUNTS...WOULD CONTINUE TO EXPECT
LESS THAN A HALF OF AN INCH AT MOST AND LESS THAN ANY ADVISORY
CRITERIA.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD...EXPECT CLOUDY SKIES
FOR MOST OF THANKSGIVING DAY AND COOL TEMPS NOT GETTING OUT OF THE
MID TO UPPER 40S. QUITE COLD WITH CLEARING SKIES FOR THANKSGIVING
NIGHT WITH MID 20S FOR MUCH OF NORTH AND WEST GEORGIA. SOME
RECOVERING EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON BUT REMAINING SEASONABLY
COOL WITH HIGHS STRUGGLING TO THE 50 DEGREE MARK.

DEESE

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MAINLY ONLY TWEAKS TO THE LONG TERM BASED ON THE LATEST GUIDANCE.

BDL

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
DRY NORTHWEST FLOW AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD BECOMES MORE
ZONAL BY THE WEEKEND...THEN SOME RIDGING ALOFT INDICATED BY
TUESDAY. AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES TO
NEW ENGLAND...A SURFACE FRONT SINKS THROUGH THE TN VALLEY INTO
NORTH GA LATE IN THE WEEKEND INTO THE FIRST OF THE WEEK. SOME
DYNAMICS AND MOISTURE SHOWN WITH THIS FRONT ENTERING NORTH GA WITH
THE ECMWF THE STRONGEST. HAVE INCLUDED SLIGHT CHANCES OF SHOWERS
FOR THE FAR NORTH FROM SUNDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. WEDGE FORMING ON
THE LAST DAY OF THE PERIOD WHICH ALSO MAY SUPPORT SOME LIGHT RAIN
AND CLOUDS. OTHERWISE...MODERATING TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

41

AVIATION...
06Z UPDATE...

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREDOMINATE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
THROUGH THIS FORECAST PERIOD. CEILINGS 5-12KFT WILL PREVAIL ACROSS
THE NORTHERN 2/3 OF THE AREA THROUGH 12-16Z...INCLUDING ALL OF THE
TAF SITES. LOCAL MVFR OR LOWER CEILINGS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
NORTH GEORGIA MOUNTAINS THROUGH 14Z ALONG WITH SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN
OR RAIN MIXED WITH SNOW. SKIES BECOMING SCATTERED AFTER 18Z ALL
AREAS EXCEPT THE FAR NORTHERN PORTIONS WHICH SHOULD SEE SCATTERED
CLOUDS BY 00Z. SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS 5-10KT THROUGH 12Z...BECOMING
MORE WEST TO NORTHWEST AND INCREASING TO 10-14KT W/ GUSTS 19-25KT
THROUGH 22Z...DIMINISHING TO 6-10KT AFTER 00Z.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...06Z UPDATE...

MEDIUM ON CIGS THROUGH 18Z...HIGH OTHERWISE.

20

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          35  52  28  50 /  10   5   5   0
ATLANTA         37  49  29  49 /  20  10   5   0
BLAIRSVILLE     32  43  25  49 /  30  30  10   0
CARTERSVILLE    33  48  26  49 /  20  10   5   0
COLUMBUS        38  54  30  54 /   5   5   5   0
GAINESVILLE     36  48  29  49 /  30  20   5   0
MACON           35  57  29  54 /   0   5   5   0
ROME            33  49  25  50 /  30  10   5   0
PEACHTREE CITY  32  51  26  50 /  20  10   5   0
VIDALIA         41  55  34  53 /   5   5   5   0

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$



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