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Area Forecast Discussion

349
FXUS62 KFFC 010748
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
348 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH RATHER QUIET WEATHER ALL IN ALL.
THE UPPER RIDGE HAS BUILT SOME OVER THE AREA FROM THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC. AN AXIS OF DEEP MOISTURE MOVES OVER SE GA AND GETS CLOSE
TO SOME OF THE COUNTIES SE OF MCN WHERE 20-30 PERCENT POPS WILL
BE FOR THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...ASSOCIATED WITH A SURFACE TROUGH
AND SOME INCREASED INSTABILITY. THERE COULD ALSO BE SOME INCREASED
INSTABILITY OVER THE NE MOUNTAINS AS WELL GIVING THE POSSIBILITY
FOR AN AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWER OR STORM. AS FOR THE REST OF THE AREA...
CHANCES FOR PRECIP ARE TOO LOW TO MENTION AS OVERALL INSTABILITY IS
WEAK.

NOT MUCH CHANGE FOR WEDNESDAY. THE UPPER RIDGE WEAKENS SOME. THE SE
SURFACE TROUGH IS CLOSER TO CENTRAL GA SO POPS ARE JUST A LITTLE HIGHER
AND OVER A LARGER PORTION OF CENTRAL GA...AND ONCE AGAIN OVER THE NE
MOUNTAINS.

FORECAST HIGH TEMPERATURES RUNNING AROUND NORMAL TODAY AND
NEAR TO 3-4 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR WEDNESDAY. FORECAST LOW
TEMPERATURES RUNNING 2-3 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL TONIGHT.

OVERALL CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.

BDL


.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...

THE LONG TERM BEGINS RELATIVELY UNEVENTFULLY. ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH NO REAL FOCUS FOR
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IN THE CWA. A BIT MORE COVERAGE IS POSSIBLE
ON FRIDAY WITH MORE INFLUENCE FROM AN UPPER-LEVEL WEAKNESS TO OUR
WEST...ESPECIALLY ACCORDING TO THE ECMWF. TEMPERATURES BOTH THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY WILL BE WARM WITH AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE
UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S ACROSS THE AREA.

THE BIGGEST INFLUENCE IN THE LONG TERM WILL BE THE WEDGE THAT WILL
PUSH DOWN THE APPALACHIANS INTO OUR AREA FOR THE COMING WEEKEND.
SATURDAY LOOKS TO BE THE WETTEST DAY AS THE BACKDOOR FRONT MOVES IN
WITH LINGERING CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ON
SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE HELD DOWN...RANGING FROM THE UPPER 70S
INTO THE MID 80S FOR HIGHS WITH ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER AND MORE
PRECIP COVERAGE. THIS PATTERN SHOULD BEGIN TO BREAK DOWN BY EARLY
NEXT WEEK AS THE SURFACE HIGH CENTER IN THE NORTHEAST SHIFTS
FURTHER EAST INTO THE ATLANTIC.

RW


&&

.AVIATION...
06Z UPDATE...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED...EXCEPT FOR SOME MVFR VSBYS UNTIL
12-14Z. SCT-BKN 4000-5000 CU DURING THE AFTERNOON. SURFACE WINDS
HIGHLY VARIABLE 6 KTS OR LESS.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...06Z UPDATE...
LOW CONFIDENCE FOR WIND DIRECTION.
LOW-MEDIUM CONFIDENCE FOR AFTERNOON CEILINGS.
HIGH CONFIDENCE OTHER ELEMENTS.

BDL

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          89  70  90  71 /  10  10  30  20
ATLANTA         88  72  90  73 /  10  10  30  20
BLAIRSVILLE     84  64  85  65 /  20  20  20  20
CARTERSVILLE    88  68  90  69 /  10  10  20  20
COLUMBUS        90  73  91  74 /  10  20  20  20
GAINESVILLE     87  70  89  71 /  10  10  30  20
MACON           89  71  91  72 /  20  20  30  20
ROME            88  68  90  69 /  10  10  20  10
PEACHTREE CITY  88  69  90  70 /  10  10  30  20
VIDALIA         90  73  90  73 /  30  20  40  20

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BDL
LONG TERM....RW
AVIATION...BDL



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