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Area Forecast Discussion

392
FXUS62 KFFC 202059 AAA
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
500 PM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.UPDATE...
REMOVED POPS AND LOWERED SKY COVER OVER SE COUNTIES REST OF THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING BASED ON OBSERVED TRENDS. HWO ALREADY UPDATED.
REST OF FCST LOOKS GOOD.

SNELSON

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
WEDGE THAT HAD BEEN DOMINATING OUR WEATHER IS FORECAST TO ERODE
TODAY INTO TONIGHT. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SHIFT TO THE WNW TONIGHT
AND USHER IN SLIGHTLY LOWER DEWPOINTS. THIS DRIER AIR IS EXPECTED
TO LEAD TO SLIGHTLY LOWER OVERNIGHT TEMPS TONIGHT. SUNDAY APPEARS
TO BE A GREAT LEAD IN TO FALL WITH CLEAR SKIES...COOLER TEMPS AND
DRIER AIR.

FORECAST CONCERN FOR THE PERIOD IS AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT AND
UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. GUIDANCE SHOWS MOISTURE
BEGINNING TO POOL IN FRONT OF THE FRONT AS IT COMES THROUGH. 00Z
AND 12Z ECMWF DEPICTED A VORT MAX ENTERING MONDAY MORNING THAT
APPEARS STRONGER THAN THE REST OF THE GUIDANCE. USING ONLY THE
OTHER MODELS THE CHANCE OF RAIN IS LOW DUE TO THE DRY AIR BEFORE
THE FRONT. HOWEVER WITH THE CONSISTENCY IN THE ECMWF AND THE VORT
FIELDS BELIEVE THERE MAY BE A SLIGHTLY GREATER RISK OF CONVECTION
ACROSS NORTH GEORGIA SUNDAY NIGHT AND THEN AGAIN MONDAY ACROSS
CENTRAL GEORGIA. HIRES GUIDANCE SUGGESTS ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS AND
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TOMORROW NIGHT ACROSS NORTH GA. GFS BASED WRF
RUNS DO NOT PRODUCE MUCH CONVECTION WHEREAS THE NAM WRF RUNS DO.
THE ECMWF IS STRONGER THAN ALL OF THESE IN THE VORT FIELD. THIS
INCREASES MY CONFIDENCE THAT WE WILL SEE A SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCE
OF THUNDER THAN THE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS. DECIDED TO HANG ON TO
SLIGHT CHANCE RAIN OVERNIGHT AS THE FRONT AND VORT MAX MOVE SOUTH.
CONVECTION SHOULD REFIRE ACROSS SOUTHEAST ZONES MONDAY AFTERNOON.
AT THIS TIME IT DOES NOT APPEAR ANY OF THE THUNDERSTORMS WOULD BE
SEVERE...A STRONG STORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

MONDAY POST FRONT SHOULD BE VERY DRY...ON THE FIRST DAY OF FALL WE
WILL ACTUALLY SEE FALL LIKE CONDITIONS. TEMPS FOR TONIGHT WERE
RAISED SLIGHTLY...USED A BCCONSALL TEMP FOR THE SHORT TERM.

ARG

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHARP UPPER TROUGH AND VORT LOBE PUSHES THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT
USHERING MUCH IN A MUCH DRIER FALL-LIKE AIRMASS. TEMPERATURES WILL
TREND 3-5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL THROUGH A GOOD PORTION OF THE WEEK
WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATING THE AREA. ALL SIGNS STILL
POINT TO AT LEAST A BRIEF DAMMING EVENT STARTING TUESDAY NIGHT AS
THE HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS OVER NEW ENGLAND AND RIDGES DOWN THE
EASTERN SEABOARD...BUT BOTH GFS AND ECMWF KEEP PRECIPITATION
GENERALLY CONFINED TO SOUTHEAST ZONES IN MORE OF A DRY ONSET
CLASSICAL CAD. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR BUT FOR NOW LOOKS LIKE A
CONTINUATION OF THE COOLER CONDITIONS. BY NEXT WEEKEND...A LOT OF
DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF SO CONFIDENCE DECREASES. SEE
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW.

TDP

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 312 AM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014/
LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY WITH LIMITED MOISTURE AND ONLY WEAK INSTABILITY ASSOCIATED.
A DRIER AIRMASS MOVES OVER MUCH OF THE AREA FOR TUESDAY WITH
MOISTURE RETURNING WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY WITH THE GFS AND
EUROPEAN MODELS DIFFERING ON HOW MUCH AND WHEN. WITH THE EASTERLY
FLOW IN PLACE NO INSTABILITY IS FORECAST. FOR NOW SMALL PRECIP
CHANCES WILL BE CONFINED TO THE SE CWA THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

FORECAST TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO NORMAL THROUGH MONDAY THEN BELOW
NORMAL INTO FRIDAY.

BDL

&&

AVIATION...
18Z UPDATE...
MAIN CONCERN FOR THE FORECAST PERIOD IS THE WIND CHANGE TONIGHT.
WINDS WILL CHANGE OVERNIGHT TO THE WNW AND COULD BE GUSTY
TOMORROW. WITH A DRYING OF THE ATMOSPHERE...CLOUDS SHOULD LEAVE
THE AREA AND THE CHANCE OF RAIN IS LOW TOMORROW AFTERNOON. EVERY
SITE SHOULD REMAIN IN VFR CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...18Z UPDATE...
HIGH ON ALL ELEMENTS.

ARG

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          62  87  65  81 /   0  10  30   5
ATLANTA         64  85  65  80 /   0  10  30   5
BLAIRSVILLE     58  80  57  74 /   5  40  40  10
CARTERSVILLE    60  85  61  78 /   5  30  40  10
COLUMBUS        64  88  68  85 /   0   0  20  20
GAINESVILLE     64  83  65  77 /   5  30  40  10
MACON           60  87  64  85 /   5   0  20  20
ROME            61  85  60  79 /   5  30  40  10
PEACHTREE CITY  58  86  63  82 /   0   5  30  20
VIDALIA         64  88  67  89 /  20   5   5  30

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ARG
LONG TERM....TDP
AVIATION...ARG








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