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Area Forecast Discussion

966
FXUS62 KFFC 030711
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
311 AM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 807 PM EDT MON MAY 2 2016/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED /

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH
TONIGHT...WITH THINGS CLEARING OUT TUESDAY AS THE MAIN FRONTAL
SYSTEM SWEEPS THROUGH THE AREA. CURRENT SATELLITE LOOP SHOWS A LARGE
UNORGANIZED MOISTURE PLUME EXTENDING FROM THE GULF OF
MEXICO...ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES...AND UP THE EASTERN
SEABOARD. THE MAIN COLD FRONT IS STILL BACK ACROSS MS/WESTERN TN BUT
IT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE EASTWARD OVER THE NEXT 24-36HOURS. BY
12ZTUESDAY THIS FRONT SHOULD BE SOMEWHERE ACROSS GA NEAR AN AUGUSTA
TO PENSACOLA FL LINE. IT WILL CONTINUE MOVING SOUTH AND EAST THROUGH
12Z WED USHERING IN A DRIER AIRMASS FOR THE EXTENDED FORECAST.

AS FOR TODAY THE HIGH RES MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT
SHOWING A DIURNAL TREND WITH THESE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THEY
SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING ACROSS THE AREA THEN
DIMINISHING BETWEEN 03Z-06Z. WE ARE CURRENTLY UNDER A MARGINAL RISK
OF SEVERE FOR THE ENTIRE CWA TODAY...AND A MARGINAL RISK FOR CENTRAL
GA TUESDAY. THIS DOES LOOK GOOD AS THE BET MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY
STAYS ACROSS THE STATE TODAY AND MOVES SOUTH WITH THE FRONTAL
MOVEMENT TUESDAY.

01

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HAVE BROUGHT POPS A LITTLE FURTHER SOUTH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT
AND INCREASED POPS IN THE MOUNTAINS PER THE LATEST GFS/ECMWF WHICH
BRINGS MOISTURE INTO MUCH OF NORTH GA BY 00Z THU. NO OTHER CHANGES
PLANNED AT THIS TIME. PREVIOUS LONG TERM DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

17

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 425 AM EDT MON MAY 2 2016/
LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SURFACE FRONT SHOULD EXTEND ACROSS CENTRAL GA AT THE START OF THE
PERIOD...SO POPS HAVE BEEN CONFINED TO CENTRAL GA EARLY TUESDAY
NIGHT...THEN DECREASING AFTER THAT. GENERAL TROUGHING ALOFT WILL
TAKE PLACE UNTIL THE END OF THE WEEK AS A CLOSED LOW DROPS
SOUTHEAST INTO THE OH VALLEY AND CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. THE CLIPPER
SYSTEM SLIDING ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
NIGHT COULD BRING SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TO NORTH GA.
MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT WITH THIS FEATURE. SO POPS HAVE BEEN
INCLUDED FOR THE FAR NORTH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND THE NORTH HALF
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. LOW PRESSURE WILL CIRCULATE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC
STATES THROUGH FRIDAY...BUT MODELS SEEM TO AGREE THAT THE
ASSOCIATED MOISTURE WILL STAY EAST AND NORTH OF OUR AREA. RIDGING
SHOULD GRADUALLY TAKE PLACE THROUGH THE WEEKEND KEEPING US DRY.

41

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z UPDATE...
LIGHT SHOWERS STILL IMPACTING THE AREA OVERNIGHT...BUT LARGELY NOT
AT TAF SITES. DEGRADING CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT WITH THE
AMPLE MOISTURE REMAINING ACROSS THE AREA...AND HAVE IFR AT ALL
SITES BY 09-11Z. SLOW IMPROVEMENT EXPECTED THROUGH THE
MORNING...THEN QUICKLY IMPROVING CONDITIONS AFTER 18Z. SHOWERS
POSSIBLE 15-18Z AT THE ATL TAF SITES...AND -TSRA POSSIBLE AT CSG
AND MCN FOR GENERALLY 16-20Z. SW WINDS WILL BECOME NW AT 8-12KT.
VRB GUSTS CAN BE EXPECTED IN/NEAR CONVECTION.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...06Z UPDATE...
HIGH CONFIDENCE ON ALL ELEMENTS.

31

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          79  54  75  50 /  30  20  10  20
ATLANTA         76  55  73  51 /  30  20   5  20
BLAIRSVILLE     73  49  68  45 /  40  20  30  50
CARTERSVILLE    75  51  73  48 /  30  20  10  30
COLUMBUS        79  56  76  54 /  60  20   5  10
GAINESVILLE     76  54  71  50 /  30  20  10  30
MACON           81  56  77  52 /  60  30  10  10
ROME            76  51  74  48 /  30  10  10  40
PEACHTREE CITY  76  51  73  50 /  30  20   5  20
VIDALIA         83  61  78  56 /  60  60  10   5

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...31
LONG TERM....41
AVIATION...31



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