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Area Forecast Discussion

363
FXUS62 KFFC 220748
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
348 AM EDT MON SEP 22 2014

.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LATEST REGIONAL SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING
FROM THE COAST OF NORTH CAROLINA THROUGH THE UPSTATE OF SOUTH
CAROLINA AND INTO ATHENS AND ATLANTA. HIGHER DEWPOINTS POOLING
NICELY ALONG THE FRONT WITH MID 60S VALUES WHILE TO THE
NORTH...DEWPOINTS HAVE ALREADY DROPPED INTO THE LOWER 50S. IN
ADDITION TO THE HIGHER DEWPOINTS...BAND OF SHOWERS AND AN
OCCASIONAL THUNDERSTORM MARK NICELY THE FRONT ACROSS THE AREA.
ALTHOUGH COVERAGE HAS BEEN SOMEWHAT LIMITED...CONTINUATION OF LOW
END CHANCE IS WARRANTED THROUGH DAYBREAK.

DIFFICULT CALL FOR THIS AFTERNOON AS MUCH DRIER AIR CONTINUES TO
RUSH INTO THE STATE BUT LAGGING VORT MAX IS ESPECIALLY STRONG FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR AND GENERATES A HEALTHY AMOUNT OF LIFT AS IT
WORKS ITS WAY THROUGH. SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL
BE AN EASY CALL AS ENOUGH MOISTURE REMAINS AS SHORT WAVE ARRIVES
AND CAPE VALUES INCREASE TO AROUND 2500 J/KG IN THE LATE
AFTERNOON. 500MB TEMPS WILL REALLY COOLED OFF DURING THIS TIME
PERIOD AS WELL WITH -11C TO -12C ANTICIPATED IN THE ZONE WITH
HIGHEST THUNDER CHANCES. FOR THIS REASON...FEEL A FEW STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION FOR EXTREME SOUTH THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HAIL WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREAT ALTHOUGH
MODEST DOWNDRAFT CAPE COULD LEAD TO SOME STRONG WINDS WITH A FEW
OF THE STORMS.

FURTHER NORTH WILL BE A TOUGHER CALL AS DRY AIR COMPETES WITH
EXCELLENT SYNOPTIC LIFT. FOR MOST OF NORTH GEORGIA...LOOKS LIKE
.50 TO .75 PWATS WILL BE JUST TOO LITTLE TO RESULT IN POPS BUT
VALUES CLOSER TO AN INCH ACROSS THE SOUTH METRO WARRANTS KEEPING
IN SLIGHT CHANCE AS SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH.

DRIER AIR AND PLEASANT TEMPS AND DEWPOINTS IN STORE FOR THE
REMAINING OF THE SHORT TERM.

DEESE

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL DOMINATE MUCH OF
THE LONG TERM PERIOD. HOWEVER THE MODELS ARE DIFFERING ON THE
DETAILS WITH A DRIER GFS AND WETTER EUROPEAN TO START UNTIL ABOUT
FRIDAY AND BEYOND.

FAVORING A DRIER GFS TUESDAY NIGHT WITH NO POPS OVER THE SE CWA AND
SORT OF A COMPROMISE ON WEDNESDAY WITH MAINLY SMALL POPS FOR THE SE
CWA. AFTER WEDNESDAY TENDING TO LEAN TOWARD THE WETTER EUROPEAN WITH
MAINLY SMALL POPS FOR SHOWERS ONLY INCREASING NORTH THROUGH SUNDAY
WHEN BOTH MODELS INCREASE DEEPER MOISTURE OVER THE AREA FROM SW
UPPER FLOW. SUNDAY IS THE FIRST DAY OF THE LONG TERM WHEN MAINLY
SMALL CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS RETURN TO PORTIONS OF CENTRAL GA.

FORECAST TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO OR BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

BDL

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z UPDATE...
STILL SOME SCATTERED SHRA ALONG FRONT TO DEAL WITH FOR THE NEXT
FEW HOURS SO WILL EXTEND TEMPO WITH THIS TAF SET. STRONG UPPER
LEVEL SYSTEM SWINGS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON BUT DRIER AIR SHOULD
PRECLUDE ADDITIONAL SHRA DEVELOPMENT AND WILL KEEP ATL AREA
TERMINALS RAIN FREE FOR THIS AFTERNOON. MCN WILL NOT BE SO LUCKY
WITH NOT ONLY BETTER SHRA POTENTIAL BUT TSRA AS WELL AND WILL KEEP
PROB30 FOR THEM THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. OTHERWISE...CIGS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...06Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM ON SHRA POTENTIAL THIS AFTERNOON.
HIGH ON REMAINING ELEMENTS.

DEESE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          82  58  77  56 /  20   0   0   0
ATLANTA         80  59  77  58 /  20   0   0   0
BLAIRSVILLE     75  51  75  51 /  10   5   5   0
CARTERSVILLE    80  55  79  56 /  20   5   0   0
COLUMBUS        84  63  80  61 /  40   5   5   0
GAINESVILLE     80  58  76  57 /  20   5   0   0
MACON           85  61  80  58 /  40  20   5   0
ROME            81  52  80  55 /  10   5   5   0
PEACHTREE CITY  81  56  79  56 /  30   0   0   0
VIDALIA         86  66  81  62 /  50  50  20  10

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DEESE
LONG TERM....BDL
AVIATION...DEESE





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