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Area Forecast Discussion

136
FXUS62 KFFC 311742
AFDFFC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
142 PM EDT WED AUG 31 2016



.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 1055 AM EDT WED AUG 31 2016/

UPDATE...
No major changes to the forecast for now. Everything is on track.

PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 735 AM EDT WED AUG 31 2016/

SHORT TERM /Today through Thursday/...

Tropical Depression Number Nine continues to be reluctant to live up
to it`s full potential over the Gulf of Mexico. However, little to
no impacts from this system would be expected across the forecast
area today anyway. Main feature through tonight continues to be the
weak upper circulation drifting over the CSRA and weak surface
troughing developing across the southern Appalachians. Moisture and
instability remain modest at best, but should be sufficient for
isolated to scattered, mainly diurnal, convection.

T.D. #9 (most likely T.S. Hermine by then) will begin influencing
the weather across central, and to some extent north, Georgia by
early Thursday as she turns northeast and accelerates toward
northwest Florida. Current forecast track brings little potential
for sustained wind impacts to the forecast area but some lingering
uncertainty in the ultimate path of the center of circulation means
we will need to keep a close eye on things, especially across the
southeastern corner of the forecast area. Rain chances increase
Thursday as tropical moisture spreads north into the forecast area
as the tropical system approaches and the weak surface front sinks
into the state. Just as with the wind potential, higher rainfall
amounts are expected to remain south and east of the forecast area
based on the current forecast path of the tropical low, but any
shift in the ultimate path of the system will have to be monitored
closely.

20

LONG TERM /Thursday Night through Tuesday/...

The long term period begins during a critical time in the forecast
period as tropical system in the gulf makes landfall and makes
its closest approach to the local forecast area. Both the 00Z GFS
and Euro are further north with their tracks versus this time last
night with the ECMWF slightly more north than the GFS and the GFS
closer to current official track. Latest 06Z guidance coming in in
general varies between these solutions and again overall trend is
further north from 24 hours ago.

What this really means for the local area sensible wx wise is
very little chance from previous forecast with rain axis affecting
mainly extreme southeast portion of the area and winds remaining
less than 20 mph. The bigger potential impact is that we now have
very little wiggle room should system continue to trend northward.
Would not take much to get high percentage chances of tropical
storm force winds for the aforementioned SE corner.

Models are in better agreement with the ending of this system as
it pulls away from GA late Fri and surface front is dragged
southward behind it brining much drier air to the region. Still
looks like we are on track for a great Labor Day weekend depending
on which model verifies better. The GFS keeps dry conditions over
the whole area while the Euro continues to keep some deep layer
moisture over the southern portions. Have leaned toward the GFS
for now keeping conditions pop free through the weekend. Temps
have come up a few degrees in guidance for the extended weekend
which lines up better with ongoing forecast which already
reflected these numbers.

Deese



&&

.AVIATION...
18Z Update...
TAFS remain pretty quiet for now. Some sct low cu is possible
overnight and just after sunrise, but should lift to VFR cu for
the afternoons. Precip is too low to mention for now, but may have
to be changed iso/sct storms develop. Winds may end up being a
challenge during the day tomorrow. Models are progging wind speeds
to be 6kt or less, and the direction may end up going west of
north for a few hours during the day on Thursday.

//ATL Confidence...18Z Update...
Medium confidence on winds. High confidence remaining elements.



&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          92  71  92  71 /  20  10  30  40
Atlanta         91  72  92  72 /  20  10  30  40
Blairsville     89  66  85  64 /  30  20  30  40
Cartersville    92  69  92  69 /  20  10  20  40
Columbus        93  73  93  74 /  20  10  30  40
Gainesville     90  71  90  69 /  20  10  30  40
Macon           94  71  91  72 /  20  10  30  40
Rome            94  70  92  68 /  30  10  20  40
Peachtree City  92  70  92  71 /  20  10  30  40
Vidalia         92  74  88  74 /  40  30  40  80

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$



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