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Area Forecast Discussion

276
FXUS62 KFFC 191731 AAC
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
1231 PM EST FRI DEC 19 2014

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1038 AM EST FRI DEC 19 2014/

UPDATE...

FOR THE MOST PART GRIDS LOOK GOOD THIS MORNING. CONTINUED TREND OF
GRADUALLY INCREASING POPS GENERALLY AFTER 18Z BUT WILL EVALUATE
THAT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS PRECIP INCREASES ACROSS ALABAMA AND
SOUTHWEST GEORGIA. TEMPERATURES LOOK OKAY...PROBABLY A LITTLE MORE
DIFFUSE LIGHT COMING THROUGH THE CLOUDS THAN ORIGINALLY
ANTICIPATED /AT LEAST TILL THE THICKER CIRRUS DECK ARRIVES/ SO
HAVE ADJUSTED HIGHS UP JUST A TAD...MAYBE A DEGREE OR SO.
OTHERWISE BIG CHANGES ARE FOR WINDS AND THAT IS MAINLY AN AVIATION
CONCERN. WILL REFRESH WORDING OF PRODUCTS BUT NO MAJOR CHANGES.

TDP

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 641 AM EST FRI DEC 19 2014/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 353 AM EST FRI DEC 19 2014/

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
CURRENT SATELLITE LOOP SHOWS MAIN LOW CENTER SPINNING JUST NORTH
OF THE NEW ENGLAND STATES. THERE IS ALSO A LARGE MOISTURE PLUME
EXTENDING FROM THIS LOW OUT ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC...OVER
CENTRAL FLORIDA...ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF...THROUGH MEXICO...AND
OUT INTO THE PACIFIC. YOU CAN ALSO SEE A DEVELOPING WAVE ALONG
THIS PLUME NOW OVER NEW MEXICO AND WESTERN TX WHICH WILL BECOME
THE NEXT WEATHER MAKE FOR GA. THIS DEVELOPING WAVE IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE EAST OUT OF TX AND ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES TODAY. THIS
WAVE WILL BEGIN TO SPREAD PRECIPITATION ACROSS GA BY 00-06Z SAT.
THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING STRONG ISENTROPIC LIFT
FROM THE SOUTHWEST BY THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING...OVERSPREADING
MAJORITY OF AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT. HAVE CONTINUED WITH POPS
INCREASING FROM THE SW BEGINNING AROUND 18Z TODAY MAXING OUT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. KEEP POPS HIGH THROUGH TONIGHT AND BEGIN DIMINISHING
FROM THE NW SAT MORNING THROUGH SAT NIGHT. QPF VALUES STILL DO NOT
LOOK THAT IMPRESSIVE WITH STORM TOTALS GENERALLY LESS THAN A HALF
INCH.

01

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MODEL SOLUTIONS CONTINUE TO SHOW AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN IN THE
LONG TERM... WITH GFS AND ECMWF SHOWING ANOTHER COOL WEDGE
SETTING UP ON SUNDAY AND GETTING OVERRUN WITH A MOIST MID LEVEL
SOUTHERLY FLOW. THIS GETS ENHANCED BY A SERIES OF WEAK
DISTURBANCES IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND SHOULD RESULT IN
AREAS OF MAINLY RAIN SPREADING OVER THE AREA SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND
SUNDAY NIGHT. THE WEDGE APPEARS TO HOLD STRONG MONDAY AND MONDAY
NIGHT AS DISTURBANCES CONTINUE TO TRAVERSE THE STATE AND WARRANT A
CHANCE OF RAIN FOR MOST AREAS THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. AT THIS
TIME... INSTABILITIES AND ANY THUNDER THREAT APPEARS TO REMAIN
MAINLY ACROSS SOUTH GEORGIA MONDAY-MONDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER... THIS
CHANGES TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT AS MODELS AGREE ON A LONG WAVE
TROUGH DEEPENING OVER THE PLAINS ON TUESDAY... THEN KICKING EAST
TUESDAY NIGHT AND DRAGGING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY
NIGHT-WEDNESDAY MORNING. AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING TROUGH AND
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT... ECMWF AND GFS ARE SHOWING 200-600 MUCAPE
NOSING UP ACROSS MAINLY CENTRAL GEORGIA TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
THIS COUPLED WITH MODERATE DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND STRONG DIFFLUENT
FLOW ALOFT WILL WARRANT ADDING MENTION OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL GEORGIA TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING... BUT
SUSPECT THE THUNDERSTORM THREAT COULD SPREAD INTO PARTS OF NORTH
GEORGIA WITH LATER MODEL RUNS CONSIDERING THE EXPECTED UPPER
FORCING. STILL MUCH UNCERTAINTY ON ANY SEVERE STORM THREAT AS
INSTABILITIES AND DEEP SHEAR REMAIN FAIRLY MODEST FOR NOW... BUT
WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR THIS POTENTIAL... ESPECIALLY ACROSS
PARTS OF CENTRAL GEORGIA WHERE THE GREATER INSTABILITIES AND SHEAR
ARE EXPECTED. BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...  WRAP AROUND MOISTURE...
STRONG UPPER FORCING AND TEMPS DROPPING INTO THE MID 30S SUGGEST
THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS MAINLY NORTHEAST
GEORGIA WEDNESDAY MORNING... BUT NO SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITH AIR AND GROUND TEMPS ABOVE FREEZING. THE SNOW
SHOWERS POTENTIAL RETURNS WEDNESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY MORNING... BUT
WITH MUCH LESS AVAILABLE MOISTURE TO WORK WITH. OTHERWISE...
EXPECT HIGH PRESSURE AND A DRY AIR MASS TO DOMINATE MOSTLY ON
THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z UPDATE...
INCREASING CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON...CIGS WILL BEGIN DROPPING
GRADUALLY TONIGHT WITH LOW VFR EXPECTED BY JUST AFTER MIDNIGHT.
-RA MOVES IN AFTER MIDNIGHT AS WELL...WITH CIGS DROPPING TO MVFR
AROUND OR JUST AFTER 12Z. -RA MOVES OUT BEFORE NOON FOR THE
NORTHERN TAFS...CLOSER TO NOON FOR MCN/CSG...AND MVFR CIGS LINGER
JUST ABOUT THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD FOR ALL BUT ATL. NW WINDS
EARLY SHIFTING TO NE AFTER MIDNIGHT /CURRENT TIMING IS 05Z/ AND
CONTINUING TO VEER TOWARD E BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...18Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM-HIGH ON TIMING OF ALL ELEMENTS...HIGH ON OCCURRENCE.

TDP

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          56  41  47  39 /   5  80  70  20
ATLANTA         55  42  50  42 /  10  80  70  10
BLAIRSVILLE     52  38  46  37 /   5  80  50  10
CARTERSVILLE    52  38  49  38 /  10  80  60  10
COLUMBUS        59  45  56  44 /  30 100  90  20
GAINESVILLE     52  40  47  39 /   5  80  60  10
MACON           60  43  55  42 /  10  90  90  20
ROME            52  37  50  36 /  10  80  50   5
PEACHTREE CITY  55  40  51  37 /  20  90  80  20
VIDALIA         63  47  56  45 /   5  80  80  20

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$



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