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Area Forecast Discussion

040
FXUS62 KFFC 271750
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
1250 PM EST THU NOV 27 2014

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 959 AM EST THU NOV 27 2014/

UPDATE...

FORECAST GRIDS IN GREAT SHAPE THIS MORNING WITH JUST A MINOR
UPDATE TO DIURNAL TEMP CURVE IN ORDER. OTHERWISE...CONTINUE TO SEE
SOME LIGHT RETURNS ON LOCAL RADAR...ALTHOUGH LESS IN THE LAST HOUR
OVER THE NORTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES. SOME REPORTS COMING IN OF
FLURRIES OR LIGHT SNOW BUT MOST ALL SITES REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING
WITH NO TRAVEL ISSUES OF NOTE. SHORTWAVE WHICH HAS TRIGGERED THIS
ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO PULL AWAY TODAY WITH LESS CHANCES FOR
PRECIP BY THIS AFTERNOON. NO OTHER CHANGES ARE PLANNED.

DEESE

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 630 AM EST THU NOV 27 2014/

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE OHIO/TENNESSEE VALLEYS EARLY THIS
MORNING PRODUCING SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION IN FAR NORTH GEORGIA
WHERE SO FAR TEMPERATURES HAVE REMAINED WARM ENOUGH FOR MAINLY RAIN.
BETTER PRECIPITATION HAS ALREADY LIFTED NORTH AND EAST OF THE STATE
HOWEVER ISOLATED PATCHES OF LIGHT RAIN OR MIXED PRECIPITATION WILL
REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH MID MORNING. SHORT WAVE QUICKLY SWEEPS INTO
THE MID-ATLANTIC COASTAL REGION THIS MORNING WITH NORTHWESTERLY
UPPER FLOW BECOMING ESTABLISHED OVER GEORGIA AS THE UPPER TROUGH
AXIS FINALLY PUSHES EAST OF THE STATE. DRY AND COOL WEATHER SETTLES
IN THROUGH FRIDAY AS THE NORTHWESTERLY UPPER PATTERN PERSISTS AND
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN AT THE SURFACE.

20

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
GFS/ECMWF IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...THEN
DIFFERENCES BEGIN. BOTH MODELS SHOW RISING H5 HEIGHTS WITH HIGH
PRESSURE SHIFTING TO OUR EAST BRINGING US A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST LOW
LEVEL FLOW...IE WARMING TEMPERATURES. BY MONDAY CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST PUSHING A COLD FRONT INTO
THE OHIO AND MISSISSIPPI VALLEYS. BOTH GFS/ECMWF BRING THIS FRONT
INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY MONDAY/TUESDAY BUT THEY DIFFER ON THE
AMOUNT OF MOISTURE WITH THE ECMWF A LITTLE LESS AGGRESSIVE. WILL
KEEP POPS CONFINED TO NORTH GA AS BOTH MODELS ALSO WEAKEN THE
FRONT. THEN AS WE PUSH INTO MID WEEK NEXT WEEK BOTH MODELS ARE OUT
OF SYNC WITH EACH OTHER WITH POSITIONS OF SHORT WAVES AND LOCATION
OF DEEPEST MOISTURE. UNTIL THERE IS MORE MODEL CONSENSUS WILL GO
WITH LESS THAN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY.

17


&&

.AVIATION...
18Z UPDATE...
VFR CIGS CONTINUE AT THE ATL ARE TERMINALS AND NOW AFFECTING
MCN AND TO A LESSER EXTENT AHN. HAVE EXTENDED CIGS IN LATEST TAF
SET TO 00Z AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS PLENTIFUL THROUGH THIS
EVENING. WIND GUSTS SUBSIDE AT 00Z BUT WILL NOT TOTALLY SUBSIDE
UNTIL CLOSER TO 04Z. NO OTHER ISSUES FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF
SET.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...18Z UPDATE...
HIGH ON ALL ELEMENTS.

DEESE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          50  26  49  32 /   5   0   0   5
ATLANTA         47  27  48  36 /   5   0   0   5
BLAIRSVILLE     43  24  47  30 /  20   0   0   0
CARTERSVILLE    48  25  49  30 /  10   0   0   5
COLUMBUS        53  29  54  35 /   5   0   0   5
GAINESVILLE     47  28  48  35 /  10   0   0   5
MACON           55  27  55  29 /   0   0   0   0
ROME            48  25  50  29 /  10   0   0   0
PEACHTREE CITY  49  25  50  28 /   5   0   0   5
VIDALIA         57  33  54  35 /   0   0   0   5

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DEESE
LONG TERM....RW
AVIATION...DEESE



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