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Area Forecast Discussion

989
FXUS62 KFFC 312318 AAB
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
718 PM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.UPDATE...EXTENDED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH UNTIL 11 PM EDT.

&&

.MESOSCALE UPDATE...
SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUING TO TRACK
SOUTHEAST ACROSS WEST-CENTRAL GEORGIA. MULTIPLE REPORTS OF NICKEL
TO JUST OVER QUARTER SIZE HAIL HAVE OCCURRED WITH STORMS MOVING
INTO MODERATELY UNSTABLE /1000-1500 J/KG MLCAPE/ ENVIRONMENT.
JUST RECEIVED REPORT OF GOLF BALL SIZE HAIL NEAR LA GRANGE.

BASED ON THIS AND DISCUSSION WITH SPC/SURROUNDING OFFICES
(BMX)...DECIDED TO EXTEND SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH UNTIL 11 PM
EDT.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 303 PM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015/

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
/ISSUED AT 249 PM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015/
LATEST ANALYSIS AND HIRES MODEL DATA CONTINUE TO SUPPORT THE
POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS FROM LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO
THE MID EVENING HOURS... AS AN UPPER DISTURBANCE INTERACTS WITH
INCREASING INSTABILITY AND AN OLD BOUNDARY STALLED ACROSS CENTRAL
GA. A FEW OF THUNDERSTORMS HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME SEVERE...
WITH STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES... COLD AIR ALOFT AND MID LEVEL
DRY AIR ALL SUPPORTING THE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL... STRONG
DOWNBURST WINDS AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING WITH THE STRONGER STORMS.
EXPECT THE MAIN SEVERE STORM THREAT TO BE BETWEEN 4 PM AND 10 PM
TODAY... AND GENERALLY IN AND AROUND THE WATCH AREA...WHICH MEANS
ATLANTA METRO AREA IS CLOSE... SO CANNOT RULE OUT A SEVERE STORM
BRUSHING THE DOWNTOWN ATLANTA AREA. ALL INTEREST ARE ENCOURAGED TO
CLOSELY MONITOR STORM DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THE EVENING. HAVE
UPDATED ZONES TO HEADLINE THE WATCH.

OTHERWISE... THE UPPER DISTURBANCE PUSHES EAST TONIGHT... WHICH
WILL INCREASE RIDGING OVERHEAD FOR WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL HELP
REDUCE ANY THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS ON WEDNESDAY... EXCEPT MAYBE
DOWN ALONG THE FAR SOUTHERN REACHES IN CENTRAL GA DURING THE
AFTERNOON. WILL HOLD ONTO A LOW CHANCE NEAR COLUMBUS TO MACON AND
SOUTHWARD WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON... BUT SUSPECT THE GREATER CHANCES
WILL BE SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA ON WEDNESDAY. AN UPPER
DISTURBANCE APPROACHING LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL WARRANT A LOW
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTHWEST ZONES
AFTER MIDNIGHT WEDNESDAY NIGHT... WITH INCREASING CHANCES INTO
THURSDAY MORNING.

A MAV AND MET BLEND ON TEMPS LOOKED GOOD THROUGH THE SHORT TERM...
SO DID NOT STRAY FAR.

39

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
/ISSUED AT 249 PM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015/
NO CHANGES PLANNED TO EXTENDED PORTIONS. MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY
GOOD AGREEMENT WITH SOME DISCREPANCIES NOTED WITH SYSTEM FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. FOR NEXT WEEK GFS BULLISH ON BRINGING GULF
MOISTURE BACK ACROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY WITH DIURNALLY DRIVEN POPS
ACROSS THE AREA ONCE AGAIN.

AVIATION...
/ISSUED AT 137 PM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015/
18Z UPDATE...
VFR CONDITIONS TO PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD. AN UPPER DISTURBANCE
WILL MOVE ACROSS THAT STATE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING... WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP FROM NEAR
ROME TO AROUND ATLANTA AND DOWN EAST OF MACON. A FEW STORMS COULD BE
STRONG WITH WIND GUSTS TO 35KTS OR GREATER... MAINLY BETWEEN 20Z TUE
TO 03Z WED. EXPECT THE CONVECTION TO PUSH EAST AND SOUTH OF ATL BY
04-05Z... WITH MID LEVEL CIGS SCATTERING BY 09Z TONIGHT. EXPECT SCT
MID CLOUDS BY 16-18Z WED WITH AFTN HEATING. WEST WINDS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING WILL BECOME NW TONIGHT AND PERSIST ON WED.
SPEEDS AROUND 10-12KTS THIS AFTERNOON... THEN 5-8KTS TONIGHT AND
WED.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...18Z UPDATE...
HIGH CONFIDENCE ALL ELEMENTS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          53  79  53  72 /  20  10  20  50
ATLANTA         55  77  57  72 /  60  20  30  50
BLAIRSVILLE     48  73  49  62 /  20  10  30  60
CARTERSVILLE    51  78  56  73 /  50  20  30  60
COLUMBUS        57  80  57  80 /  60  30  20  20
GAINESVILLE     53  76  53  67 /  30  10  30  50
MACON           56  81  54  77 /  60  20  20  40
ROME            52  78  54  74 /  60  20  30  60
PEACHTREE CITY  53  79  53  75 /  70  20  30  40
VIDALIA         59  80  58  79 /  60  20  10  30

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: BARTOW...BIBB...BLECKLEY...CARROLL...
CHATTAHOOCHEE...CHATTOOGA...COWETA...CRAWFORD...CRISP...DODGE...
DOOLY...DOUGLAS...EMANUEL...FAYETTE...FLOYD...GORDON...
HARALSON...HARRIS...HEARD...HOUSTON...JOHNSON...JONES...LAMAR...
LAURENS...MACON...MARION...MERIWETHER...MONROE...MONTGOMERY...
MUSCOGEE...PAULDING...PEACH...PIKE...POLK...PULASKI...SCHLEY...
SPALDING...STEWART...SUMTER...TALBOT...TAYLOR...TELFAIR...
TOOMBS...TREUTLEN...TROUP...TWIGGS...UPSON...WEBSTER...WHEELER...
WILCOX...WILKINSON.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...83
AVIATION...



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