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Area Forecast Discussion

386
FXUS62 KFFC 301952
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
352 PM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014


.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...

OVERALL PATTERN DEFINED BY STRONG UPPER HIGH CENTERED OF THE SC
COAST. UPPER TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER LOWER MS VALLEY PROGGED TO
FLATTEN AS IT RUNS INTO THE UPPER RIDGE. WESTERLIES SHOULD REMAIN
NORTH OF THE STATE WITH MOISTURE TRAPPED IN THE E-W ORIENTED RIDGE
AXIS SUN-MON.

PRIMARY CONCERN IN THE SHORT TERM IS HOW WIDESPREAD AND INTENSE
CONVECTION WILL BE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. IN SPITE OF MLCAPE
VALUES AROUND 2000 J/KG...ONLY A FEW CELLS INDICATING MUCH LIGHTNING
OR SUBSTANTIAL REFLECTIVITY ALOFT SO FAR. DCAPE VALUES BELOW 800 SO
NOT EXPECTING ANY SIGNIFICANT WIND THREAT. WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR.

MODELS INDICATING LESS CONVECTION SUNDAY THAN TODAY AS UPPER RIDGE
AXIS REMAINS ENTRENCHED. COULD SEE TSRA NEAR SEA BREEZE REGION IN
FAR SRN AND SERN COUNTIES AS WELL AS A FEW TSRA ALONG WEAK SFC
BOUNDARY SLIPPING ACROSS ERN TN.


SNELSON


.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...

NO CHANGES TO THE LONG TERM. UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE
THE PATTERN THROUGH THE PERIOD. A COUPLE OF SHORT WAVES SHOULD
PASS MAINLY TO THE NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
IS INCLUDED BELOW.

41



LONG TERM /355 AM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014/...
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE
THE WEATHER THROUGH MUCH OF THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST.
A MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL IMPACT MAINLY THE NORTHERN PORTIONS
OF THE CWFA SUNDAY EVENING...AND HAVE ADJUSTED POPS ACCORDINGLY.
THE SHEAR AXIS SHOULD WEAKEN BY MONDAY. CONVECTION WILL RETURN TO
A MORE SUMMER- LIKE DIURNAL PATTERN FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.

THE MODELS ARE PROGGING A WEAK TROUGH TO DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE
REGION ON WEDNESDAY. BEHIND THE WEAK BOUNDARY...WINDS ARE EXPECTED
TO SHIFT TO A MORE EASTERLY DIRECTION.

TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD. AFTER
THE WEAK BOUNDARY MID-WEEK...TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO COOL OFF A FEW
DEGREES...BUT STILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

NLISTEMAA

AVIATION...
18Z UPDATE...
ISOLD SHRA DEVELOPING QUICKLY ACROSS THE AREA BUT NO TSRA SO FAR.
EXPECT ISOLD TSRA TO DEVELOP MAINLY 20Z-00Z. HAVE ADDED THIS FOR
ALL FCST SITES BASED ON RADAR AND SATELLITE TRENDS. ACTIVITY
SHOULD DISSIPATE BY 03Z. EVEN WITH SLY FLOW...NOT ANTICIPATING ANY
STRATUS DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR THIS
POSSIBILITY. COULD SEE SOME MVFR FOG AROUND SUNRISE AT A FEW
SPOTS PRONE TO RADIATIONAL COOLING. NO VSBY ISSUES AT KATL THOUGH.
SFC WINDS WILL REMAIN SSE THRU 15Z SUN AFTER WHICH SW TO WSW
WINDS ARE EXPECTED.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...18Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ON STRATUS DEVELOPMENT.
HIGH CONFIDENCE ON ALL OTHER ELEMENTS.

SNELSON

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          69  94  69  94 /  40  20  20  30
ATLANTA         71  90  72  91 /  40  20  20  30
BLAIRSVILLE     65  85  63  87 /  40  40  30  30
CARTERSVILLE    69  90  68  92 /  50  30  20  30
COLUMBUS        73  93  73  93 /  40  20  20  30
GAINESVILLE     70  89  70  91 /  40  30  20  30
MACON           70  94  69  94 /  40  20  20  30
ROME            70  90  68  93 /  50  30  20  40
PEACHTREE CITY  69  91  68  91 /  40  20  20  30
VIDALIA         73  96  73  95 /  30  30  30  30

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SNELSON
LONG TERM....41
AVIATION...SNELSON





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