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Area Forecast Discussion

199
FXUS62 KFFC 041750
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
150 PM EDT WED MAY 4 2016


UPDATE...
FORECAST IS GREAT SHAPE THIS MORNING WITH NO CHANGES
NEEDED.

LAST OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS EXITED THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE
CWA...WITH SCT CU NOW DEVELOPING ACROSS THE STATE. EXPECT THE
AREA TO REMAIN DRY MOST OF THE DAY...HOWEVER PRECIP CHANCES WILL
INCREASE FROM THE NORTH LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT.

MORNING EVALUATION OF LATEST DATA SHOWS UNSEASONABLY STRONG UPPER
LOW CENTERED OVER W GREAT LAKES. STRONG VORT MAXES ROTATING ALONG
W PERIPHERY OF THE LOW...ALONG WITH AN ASSOCIATED SFC COLD FRONT...
WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS ALONG WITH SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY
LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS THEY MOVE SOUTH. A FEW LOW TOPPED STORMS
ARE LIKELY TOO AS 500MB TEMPS DROP DOWN TOWARDS -20C...ALLOWING
FOR 100-400J/KG MUCAPE AND STEEP LAPSE RATES. HI-RES MODELS
SUGGESTING MORE OF A LINEAR NATURE TO THE SHOWERS/EMBEDDED STORMS
AS THEY MOVE INTO NW GA AROUND 21Z...WHICH SEEMS REASONABLE BASED
ON FRONTAL FORCING AND PROGGED DEEP LAYER SHEAR 30-40KTS. A FEW
STORMS COULD PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL.


KOVACIK

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 421 AM EDT WED MAY 4 2016/

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
COLD FRONT HAS EXITED THE CWA THIS MORNING...TAKING WITH IT THE
AMPLE MOISTURE AND PRECIP. ALTHOUGH SHORT TERM FORECAST IS FAR
LESS ACTIVE THAN THE LAST FEW DAYS...CLOSED UPPER TROUGH WILL
IMPACT THE AREA THROUGH THURSDAY.

MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE PRECIP CHANCES WILL RETURN TO THE STATE
AS TROUGH DIGS SOUTHWARD OVER THE REGION AND SLINGS SHORTWAVE ACROSS
NORTH GEORGIA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ENHANCED MID LEVEL
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SHORTWAVE WILL PRODUCE INCREASED
CLOUDINESS AND RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE NORTHERN ZONES BY THIS
AFTERNOON...AND PERSISTING INTO THURSDAY. GIVEN THE UNSEASONABLY
COLD MID LEVEL AIR...EXPECT SOME LOW-TOPPED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.
THE LATEST HI-RES MODELS DO SUGGEST MORE OF AN ORGANIZED NATURE TO
THE CONVECTION...PARTICULARLY ACROSS NORTHERN ALABAMA...THOUGH
DEVELOPING STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SEVERE LIMITS. HAVE
INCREASING POPS BEGINNING EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...WITH BEST CHANCES
/GOOD CHANCE POPS/ THIS EVENING. WITHIN TOLERANCE BUT ON THE LOW
SIDE COMPARED TO THE NEIGHBORS AND THIS MAY BE A BIT TOO
CONSERVATIVE IF THE CONVECTION DOES TAKE ON A MORE ORGANIZED LINEAR
FORM.

AS CLOSED TROUGH SPINS OVER THE CAROLINAS THURSDAY...THE COMBINATION
OF THE WRAP AROUND MOISTURE AND DIURNAL HEATING COULD PRODUCE SOME
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER FAR NORTHEAST GEORGIA. HAVE
MAINTAINED THE SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS IN THE GRIDS FOR
GENERALLY THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST TODAY THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. AT THIS
TIME SPEEDS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA.

TODAY HIGHS WILL BE NEAR SEASONAL NORMS...BUT TONIGHT AND THURSDAY
ARE EXPECTED TO BE CHILLIER AS STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW REMAINS OVER
THE REGION. EXPECT LOWS IN THE 40S AND LOW 50S /UPPER 30S IN THE FAR
NORTHEAST/ THURSDAY MORNING. HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MOUNTAINS WILL
ONLY REACH THE 50S THURSDAY AFTERNOON...WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE
60S TO LOW 70S ACROSS THE REST OF THE CWA.

31

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
UPPER CLOSED LOW CIRCULATING OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES AT THE
START OF THE PERIOD. GFS ESPECIALLY HINTS THAT WRAP AROUND SHOWERS
COULD STILL AFFECT EXTREME NORTHEAST GA THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY.
BUT AT THIS TIME CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON THAT SO HAVE LEFT POPS OUT.
MOST OF THE LONG TERM WILL BE DRY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN OVER
THE SOUTHEAST. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT
OVER MUCH OF THE AREA WITH A GRADUAL WARM UP INTO THE WEEKEND. A
GENERAL INCREASE IN MOISTURE STARTING THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK
AS SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASES. A BACK DOOR FRONT MOVING SOUTHWEST
INTO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS MAY BRING SHOWERS CLOSE TO THE GA
MOUNTAINS ON MONDAY. HAVE LEFT POPS OUT FOR NOW. POPS RETURNING
MAINLY TO NORTH AND WEST ON TUESDAY.

41


&&

.AVIATION...
18Z UPDATE...
DIURNAL CU FIELD HAS ALL TAF SITES IN SCT 050-060 DECK AT 18Z.
EXPECT VFR TO PREVAIL AT ALL SITES THRU THE PERIOD BUT NORTHERN
TAF SITES /INCLUDING ATL/ MAY SEE A FEW SHOWERS BETWEEN 00-03Z.
HAVE THEREFORE INTRODUCED SHRA TEMPO. WINDS WILL STAY ON THE NW
SIDE WITH GUSTS IN THE LOW 20KT RANGE TODAY...INCREASING TO NEAR
30KT TOMORROW MORNING. WRAP AROUND MOISTURE THURSDAY MAY CLIP AHN
...BUT SHOULD NOT BOTHER OTHER SITES.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...18Z UPDATE...
HIGH ON ALL ELEMENTS

KOVACIK


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          75  48  67  47 /  20  40  30   5
ATLANTA         72  49  65  49 /  30  40  10   5
BLAIRSVILLE     67  44  58  45 /  40  40  30  10
CARTERSVILLE    71  47  64  45 /  30  40  20   5
COLUMBUS        76  52  70  49 /  20  30   5   5
GAINESVILLE     70  48  62  49 /  30  40  30   5
MACON           76  50  70  47 /  10  20  10   5
ROME            73  47  65  46 /  40  40  10   5
PEACHTREE CITY  72  48  67  45 /  20  40  10   5
VIDALIA         78  55  72  50 /  20  20   5   5

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KOVACIK
LONG TERM....BAKER
AVIATION...KOVACIK



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