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Area Forecast Discussion

218
FXUS62 KFFC 241145 AAB
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
645 AM EST MON NOV 24 2014

.UPDATE...
MADE A FEW ADJUSTMENTS TO THE POPS AND WEATHER ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
AND EASTERN EDGES OF THE FORECAST AREA TO ACCOUNT FOR INCREASED
CONVECTION MOVING ACROSS FAR SOUTH GEORGIA AND BRUSHING THE SOUTHERN
AND SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. ADJUSTED CLOUDS A LITTLE AS
WELL.


20

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 337 AM EST MON NOV 24 2014/

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TODAY. INDICATIONS ARE
PASSAGE WILL BE GENERALLY DRY ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE AREA AND I
HAVE KEPT POPS CONFINED MAINLY TO SOUTHERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF
THE AREA WHERE BETTER MOISTURE AND MARGINAL INSTABILITY REMAIN. WILL
NEED TO KEEP AN EYE OUT FOR ANY SHOWERS ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS
EARLY IN THE DAY ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT. ENOUGH INSTABILITY
ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH AND EAST TO INCLUDE A CHANCE OF THUNDER FOR
THIS AFTERNOON. SOME SHEAR IS PRESENT DUE TO STRONG MID-LEVEL WINDS
BUT IS GENERALLY UNIDIRECTIONAL AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS DO NOT
APPEAR LIKELY. FRONT STALLS OUT SOMEWHERE JUST SOUTH OF THE FORECAST
AREA TONIGHT AS THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AXIS REMAINS WEST OF THE
REGION. MOISTURE RETURNS TUESDAY FROM THE SOUTH AS A STRONG SHORT
WAVE DIGS TO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INDUCING FAIRLY RAPID
SURFACE LOW DEVELOPMENT IN THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO. LOW MOVES
ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA TO THE SOUTHEAST ATLANTIC COASTAL
WATERS WHICH KEEPS THE BEST PRECIPITATION CHANCES SOUTH AND EAST OF
OUR AREA...BUT SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD NORTHWARD
DURING THE DAY TUESDAY.

20

LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SURFACE LOW MOVING ACROSS FLORIDA AND UP THE COAST OF THE
CAROLINAS TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL SPREAD SHOWERS
BACK TO THE NORTHWEST ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH
HIGHEST POPS OVER EASTERN SECTIONS. THERE REMAINS THE POSSIBILITY
OF SOME MIX OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS NORTHEAST GA TUESDAY NIGHT.
WILL CONTINUE TO WATCH FOR THIS...HOWEVER NOT LOOKING FOR ANY
ACCUMULATIONS. MODEL THICKNESS VALUES VARY SOME OVER THIS AREA
TUESDAY NIGHT BUT FOR NOW SEEMS AS THOUGH THE CRITICAL THICKNESS
VALUES STAY WEST OF THE AREA. SHOWERS ENDING FROM THE WEST
WEDNESDAY AS THE SURFACE LOW MOVES UP THE ATLANTIC COAST. UPPER
FLOW BECOMING MORE NORTHWEST ON WEDNESDAY BUT GRADUALLY
TRANSITIONS TO ZONAL BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. DRY THURSDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY...BUT A FRONT GETS PUSHED INTO THE TN VALLEY ON
SUNDAY AND THERE MAY BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE FAR
NORTH.

41

&&

AVIATION...
12Z UPDATE...

MAINLY MVFR CEILINGS ACROSS THE NORTHERN 2/3 OF THE AREA CURRENTLY.
IFR/LIFR CEILINGS ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH. EXPECTING A SLOW IMPROVING
TREND WITH MOST AREAS VFR BY 16-18Z. WILL SEE SCATTERED MVFR OR
LOWER VISIBILITIES BETWEEN 12Z AND 14Z AS WELL. SCATTERED SHOWERS
WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST
AREA...BUT WILL STAY SOUTH OF THE TAF SITES. SOUTHWEST WINDS 6-10KT
THROUGH 14Z...INCREASING TO 10-14KT W/ GUSTS 18-24KT AND BECOMING
WESTERLY 14Z-18Z.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...12Z UPDATE...

HIGH CONFIDENCE ON ALL ELEMENTS EXCEPT MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ON TIMING
OF TRANSITION FROM IFR TO MVFR AND EVENTUALLY VFR CEILINGS DURING
THE DAY.

20

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          70  41  57  40 /  20  10  10  60
ATLANTA         67  41  56  39 /  10  10  10  50
BLAIRSVILLE     63  36  54  36 /  20  10  10  50
CARTERSVILLE    64  38  55  38 /  10  10  10  40
COLUMBUS        73  44  57  41 /  20  10  20  70
GAINESVILLE     66  40  55  39 /  10  10  10  50
MACON           74  44  58  41 /  30  20  40  80
ROME            63  36  55  37 /  10  10  10  20
PEACHTREE CITY  68  37  56  38 /  10  10  10  60
VIDALIA         77  51  60  45 /  60  30  60  80

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...20
LONG TERM....41
AVIATION...20



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