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Area Forecast Discussion

403
FXUS62 KFFC 011956
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
356 PM EDT WED OCT 1 2014

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
MORNING FOG DECK HAS LIFTED WITH AN EXTENSIVE CU DECK FORMING IN ITS
WAKE. THIS HAS NOT HAD TOO MUCH OF AN EFFECT ON TEMPERATURES EXCEPT
TO THE SOUTH WHERE A SLOWER CLIMB HAS BEEN EXPERIENCED BUT STILL
ANTICIPATE THOSE AREAS TO REACH FORECAST HIGHS.
OTHERWISE...CONTINUING TO MONITOR TRANSITION FROM VERY LIGHT FLOW TO
MORE OF A SOUTHERLY REGIME AS HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY DRIFTS TO THE
EAST. ON A BROADER SCALE...ALL EYES ARE TO THE WEST WHERE STRONG
SHORTWAVE IS MOVING OUT OF THE FOUR CORNERS AND INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS AND PROMISES TO BE OUR MAIN WEATHER MAKER FOR FRIDAY INTO
FRIDAY NIGHT.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM THOUGH...TRANQUIL WEATHER IN
STORE INITIALLY AS SUBTLE RIDGE BUILDS IN ADVANCE OF UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH. WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPING JUST OFF THE
SURFACE...SHOULD SEE GOOD MOISTURE ADVECTION TONIGHT LEADING TO
ANOTHER ROUND OF LOW CLOUDS AND POTENTIAL FOG. BEST LOCATIONS FOR
THIS LOOK TO BE FROM CSG TO MCN AND POINTS SOUTH BUT LOW CLOUDS
LOOK TO IMPACT AS FAR NORTH AS THE ATL METRO BY THU MORNING. HAVE
PATCHY FOG IN THE GRIDS PRIMARILY AS FLOW SHOULD REMAIN JUST
STRONG ENOUGH BUT WILL NEED TO MONITOR CLOSELY FOR POSSIBLE
ADJUSTMENTS UPWARD ON DENSE FOG POTENTIAL.

BY THURSDAY NIGHT...NORTHWEST ZONES GET INTO MORE OF A DIFFLUENT
PATTERN ALOFT AS RIDGE SLIDES EAST ALLOWING FOR DISTURBANCES TO
RACE ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT. MODELS IN AGREEMENT ON ONE SUCH
DISTURBANCE PUSHING ACROSS AND ENHANCING PRECIP POTENTIAL FROM 06Z
TO 12Z. STILL ENOUGH RESIDUAL SURFACE CAPE AND MUCAPE TO WARRANT
THUNDERSTORM FORMATION WITH THIS ACTIVITY. SHEAR WILL ALSO BE
SUPPORTIVE A FEW STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE STORMS IN THIS INITIAL
PORTION BUT THE MAJORITY SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL FRIDAY.

AS FAR AS FRIDAY...CONTINUED CATEGORICAL POPS THROUGH THE PERIOD
AND MAIN FOCUS WAS ON SEVERE POTENTIAL. ALTHOUGH PARAMETERS LOOK
LIKE THEY ARE HAVING A HARD TIME LINING UP AND MUCH WILL DEPEND ON
TIMING...THERE REMAINS A DECENT CHANCE OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS
WITH POTENTIAL CAPE VALUES OF 1500 TO 2000 AND A QUICK SHOT OF
STRONG LOW LEVEL SHEAR. AT THIS TIME...HAVE BEEFED UP WORDING IN
HWO TO INCLUDE POSSIBLE ISOLATED TORNADOES FOR NW AS BOTH STP
PLOTS AND LOCAL SHERB INDEX INDICATE POTENTIAL.

DEESE


.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
UPPER RIDGE MOVING OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST THURSDAY NIGHT AS A COLD
FRONT ENTERS THE MS VALLEY. FRONT APPROACHING NORTHWEST GA AROUND
18Z FRIDAY AND MOVING THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND
INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. INSTABILITY SUFFICIENT FOR THUNDERSTORMS DURING
THAT TIME WITH BEST CAPES AROUND 1500 AND LIFTED INDEX VALUES OF
MINUS 3 TO MINUS 5. COULD ALSO SEE SOME ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS
ESPECIALLY ACROSS NW GA WHERE THE BEST INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE
LINE UP FRIDAY MORNING/AFTERNOON. THE BIGGEST THREAT FROM ANY
THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP FRIDAY WILL BE STRONG GUSTY
WINDS...PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN...FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING
STRIKES...AND THE POSSIBILITY OF ISOLATED TORNADOES. SHARP TROUGH
CROSSING THE SOUTHEAST SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WITH DRY AND COLDER
AIR. SOME MODIFICATION FOR THE FIRST OF THE WEEK. LOOKS LIKE A
SHORT WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE OH/TN VALLEYS ON TUESDAY AND HAVE
INCLUDED LOW POPS ACROSS THE FAR NORTH. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE
WARM FOR FRIDAY AHEAD OF THE FRONT...BUT CLOUDS AND RAIN WILL
MODIFY THOSE VALUES. TEMPERATURES COOLING DOWN FOR THE WEEKEND.

01


&&


.CLIMATE...


RECORDS FOR 10-02

               MAX TEMPERATURE         MIN TEMPERATURE
  STATION      HIGH        LOW         HIGH        LOW
  -------  ----------  ----------  ----------  ----------
   KAHN      94 1911     53 1958     70 1926     38 1924
   KATL      89 1986     59 1958     72 1910     42 1895
                1910
   KCSG      93 1986     62 1958     72 2005     42 1984
                                        1986
   KMCN      94 1971     65 1958     72 2005     39 1984
                                        1926

RECORDS FOR 10-03

               MAX TEMPERATURE         MIN TEMPERATURE
  STATION      HIGH        LOW         HIGH        LOW
  -------  ----------  ----------  ----------  ----------
   KAHN      91 1986     56 1958     71 2007     38 1974
   KATL      94 1911     57 1958     70 2007     40 1981
                                        1986
                                        1884
   KCSG      93 1954     62 1958     71 2007     43 1974
                                        1995
                                        1985
   KMCN      95 1911     60 1958     71 1937     39 2011
                                        1927

RECORDS FOR 10-04

               MAX TEMPERATURE         MIN TEMPERATURE
  STATION      HIGH        LOW         HIGH        LOW
  -------  ----------  ----------  ----------  ----------
   KAHN      96 1954     59 1957     71 1941     36 1987
   KATL      91 1954     61 1957     71 1941     39 1987
                1941        1899        1884        1974
   KCSG      94 1954     65 1975     73 2007     40 1974
                            1957
   KMCN      95 1954     61 1899     73 1911     36 1987
                                                    1974

AVIATION...
18Z UPDATE...
MORNING FOG OVER THE SOUTH HAS LIFTED INTO A DENSE CU DECK FROM
CSG TO MCN WITH SLIGHTLY LESS CLOUD COVERAGE AS YOU PROGRESS NORTH
TOWARD ATL. EXPECT VFR CU FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON AND
THEN CLEARING SKIES. INCREASING MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH OVERNIGHT
HOWEVER WILL LEAD TO A RETURN OF LOW CLOUDS AND POTENTIAL FOG FOR
MCN AND CSG. EXPECT THIS TO REACH ATL AROUND DAYBREAK IN THE FORM
OF A SCT TO BKN DECK AROUND 3K FT WHICH WILL LIFT QUICKLY TO 5K
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...18Z UPDATE...
HIGH ON ALL ELEMENTS.

DEESE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          58  85  65  78 /   0   5  20  80
ATLANTA         65  85  68  78 /   0   5  40  80
BLAIRSVILLE     53  81  60  74 /   0   5  60  90
CARTERSVILLE    56  86  66  78 /   0   0  50  90
COLUMBUS        64  86  69  80 /   0   5  20  80
GAINESVILLE     62  84  66  76 /   0   5  40  80
MACON           59  86  67  82 /   0   5  10  70
ROME            54  87  65  77 /   0   0  70  90
PEACHTREE CITY  57  85  66  77 /   0   5  30  80
VIDALIA         65  85  65  83 /   5   5   5  60

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DEESE
LONG TERM....01
AVIATION...DEESE





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