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Area Forecast Discussion

673
FXUS62 KFFC 291720
AFDFFC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
120 PM EDT WED JUN 29 2016

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 1014 AM EDT WED JUN 29 2016/

UPDATE...

Not many if any changes planned for this update as forecast grids
are in great shape. Surface analysis indicates surface boundary is
perhaps a little further south than what the models depict but in
the ballpark. Have a feeling that along and ahead of the stratus
deck over central GA is where convection will be most plentiful
thisafternoon. Even into North GA though...should see some
development based on CAPE forecast and like the isolated pops into
the Atlanta metro. Only thing I will be watching for updating is
the need to ramp pops up to likely along the extreme southern tier
from Sumter to Toombs.

Deese

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 730 AM EDT WED JUN 29 2016/

SHORT TERM /Today through Thursday/...
Medium range models continue to suppress convection too far south
today. Although some drier air has begun to filter into the far
north...ample moisture remains available for at least a slight
chance of convection into most of North Georgia with the lack of any
upper-level suppression and the proximity of the surface trough.
Better chances remain across Central Georgia where deeper moisture
will interact with the persistent surface trough across the region.
This pattern holds through Thursday with convection expected to
diminish overnight with loss of daytime heating. Instability will
remain marginal at best for a few strong thunderstorms in Central
Georgia both today and tomorrow.

20

LONG TERM /Thursday Night through Tuesday/...
The eastern trough will hold through the end of the week...then
flatten and lift north putting the CWA in a light westerly flow.
Several impulses will move through the upper flow. With abundant
surface moisture continuing over the CWA...expect scattered
showers and thunderstorms to develop...mainly during the afternoon
and evening hours. Probabilities will increase...especially across
north GA...this weekend and into early next week as a surface
trough moves out of the Tennessee Valley and stalling over the
CWA.

17

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z UPDATE...

Main forecast challenge initially is wind direction over the next
12 hours as surface front situated right over ATL sites will play
havoc with directions. Good news is winds will remain relatively
light and mainly for this reason have chosen the simpler approach
of keeping winds on the west side through the period.
Otherwise...some increase in moisture around 5k feet possible
during afternoon hours so have added a BKN deck for this cycle.
Additional reductions to cig and vsby to IFR possible at MCN and
CSG.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...18Z UPDATE...
Medium on winds and BKN deck tonight.
High on remaining elements.

Deese

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          91  70  89  70 /  20  20  30  20
Atlanta         90  71  90  72 /  20  20  30  20
Blairsville     86  63  86  62 /  20  10  20  20
Cartersville    90  67  90  68 /  20  10  20  10
Columbus        91  73  91  73 /  30  20  40  20
Gainesville     90  70  89  69 /  20  20  30  20
Macon           90  71  90  72 /  30  20  40  20
Rome            90  67  89  66 /  10  10  20  10
Peachtree City  90  68  90  69 /  20  20  30  20
Vidalia         90  74  91  73 /  50  30  40  30

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Deese
LONG TERM....BDL
AVIATION...Deese



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