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Area Forecast Discussion

773
FXUS62 KFFC 220526
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
126 AM EDT FRI MAY 22 2015



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 736 PM EDT THU MAY 21 2015/

EVENING UPDATE...
LOW TO MID LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS WEST CENTRAL AND NORTH GA ARE SLOWLY
RETREATING NORTHWARD... BUT MAY LINGER ACROSS FAR NORTH GA THROUGH
THE EVENING AND POSSIBLY AFTER MIDNIGHT ACROSS NW GA. MAY HAVE TO
TWEAK SKY COVER A BIT IN NORTHERN ZONES. OTHERWISE... THE REST OF
THE FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK AT THIS TIME. /39

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
/ISSUED AT 319 PM EDT THU MAY 21 2015/
WHILE RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD IN FROM THE NW IN THE WAKE
OF THE LAST COLD FRONT...SOME SHALLOW MOISTURE BELOW A STRONG 850
INVERSION WILL ALLOW FOR LINGERING STRATOCU MAINLY IN THE
NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA INTO TONIGHT AND TYPICAL DOWNSLOPE
CLEARING IN THE NORTHEAST. RESULTANT GRADIENT WINDS BETWEEN THE
PRESSURE SYSTEMS SHOULD GRADUALLY DECREASE TONIGHT THOUGH HAVE
SUPPORTED A FIRE DANGER STATEMENT ISSUANCE THRU THIS EVENING /SEE
FIRE WEATHER SECTION BELOW FOR MORE DETAILS/.

OTHERWISE CLEARING SKIES AND SOME LOWER RH AIR IS ON TAP FOR ENDING
OUT THE WORK WEEK TOMORROW. RH SHOULD STILL STAY OUTSIDE LEVELS FOR
FIRE DANGER CONCERN.

TEMPS RATHER COOL TONIGHT...RANGING GENERALLY 5-7 DEGREES BELOW NORM
/MAYBE EVEN SOME UPPER 40S FOR THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS IN NORTH
GA/... THEN HIGHS FRIDAY NEAR 3-5 DEGREES BELOW NORM. WILL BE A VERY
PLEASANT DAY IN THE MID 70S TO LOW 80S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA.
UPPER RIDGE AMPLIFYING SOME AS WE HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND SO EXPECT A
WARMING TREND AFTER FRIDAY NIGHT.

BAKER

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
/ISSUED AT 319 PM EDT THU MAY 21 2015/
PATTERN IN FIRST HALF OF LONG TERM PERIOD DOMINATED BY UPPER
RIDGE OVER SE CONUS. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS AND BELOW NORMAL MEAN RH
WITH LIMITED CHANCE FOR PRECIP EXPECTED THRU MONDAY MORNING. BY
MONDAY AFTERNOON RIDGE AXIS SHOULD BE CENTERED OVER ERN SC/NC WITH
SW FLOW ALOFT IMPINGING INTO AL/MS/WRN GA AND ASSOCD INCREASE IN
DEEP MOISTURE. SHOULD SEE SCT SHRA/TSRA BEGIN IN EARNEST MONDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING AND PERSIST THRU REST OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD
THOUGH FLOW WEAKENS GRADUALLY AND BECOMES QUITE WEAK BY THURS.
ONLY DIFFERENCE BETWEEN MED RANGE MODELS NOT APPARENT UNTIL WED
WHEN 12Z EC PROGS SLIGHTLY MORE PRONOUNCED SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER
LOWER MS VALLEY THAN GFS. NOTICED THAT WPC GENERALLY PREFERRING EC
GUIDANCE THIS CYCLE SO MAY BE GFS MORE OF THE OUTLYING SOLUTION.
LITTLE IMPACT ON SENSIBLE WEATHER BETWEEN BLEND MEMBERS SO BLEND
GENERALLY ACCEPTED. SCT DIURNAL AFT/EVENING CONVECTION WITH LESS
DIURNAL RANGE IN TEMPS LIKELY MON THRU THURS.

SNELSON

PREV LONG TERM DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 338 AM EDT THU MAY 21 2015/
/FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... EARLY PART OF THE WEEKEND
WILL BE DRY AS SURFACE HIGH BUILDS OVER THE EASTERN US...AND UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING SETS UP OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. WILL SEE
SOME INCREASE IN MOISTURE LATE SUNDAY AND INTO MONDAY AS SURFACE
HIGH SHIFTS INTO THE ATLANTIC AND RIPPLES IN THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW
IMPACT PORTIONS OF WEST AND NORTH GEORGIA. EXTENDED MODELS ARE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT AS FAR AS ANCHORING THE UPPER RIDGE JUST OFF THE GA
COAST...WHICH MAY KEEP MUCH OF THE CONVECTION TO OUR
WEST...HOWEVER WITH INCREASING GULF MOISTURE TO TAP INTO EXPECT AN
INCREASE IN DIURNALLY DRIVEN AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH WEEKS
END. GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES ARE CLOSE WITH ABOVE NORMAL HIGHS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.

ATWELL


&&

.AVIATION...
06Z UPDATE...
MVFR STRATO CU HAS BEGUN TO ERODE ACROSS THE NORTHERN TERMINAL
SITES BUT HIGH CLOUDS WILL REMAIN FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. DIURNAL CU EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AGAIN TODAY DURING
PEAK HEATING...WITH CIGS REMAINING VFR. WINDS WILL BE TRICKY LATER
THIS AFTERNOON. SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE 6KT OR LESS DURING THE
LATE AFTERNOON...AND MAY FLIRT A FEW DEGREES ON EITHER SIDE OF 360
DEGREES FOR A FEW HOURS BEFORE GOING EAST AFTER DARK.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...06Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ON WINDS. HIGH CONFIDENCE REMAINING ELEMENTS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          79  57  82  60 /   0   5   5   5
ATLANTA         77  60  81  63 /   0   5   5   5
BLAIRSVILLE     74  51  75  54 /   0   0   0   0
CARTERSVILLE    77  52  81  60 /   0   0   5   5
COLUMBUS        82  61  85  64 /   0   0   0   0
GAINESVILLE     76  58  79  60 /   0   0   5   0
MACON           82  57  86  61 /   0   0   0   0
ROME            77  53  82  59 /   0   0   0   0
PEACHTREE CITY  79  54  82  60 /   0   5   5   5
VIDALIA         84  62  85  62 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$



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