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Area Forecast Discussion

837
FXUS62 KFFC 021151
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
751 AM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 325 AM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014/

.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A TYPICAL SUMMERTIME DIURNALLY ACTIVE PATTERN IS ON TAP BOTH TODAY
AND WEDNESDAY. LARGELY A PERSISTENCE FORECAST AS PREVIOUS CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY IS A GOOD INDICATION OF WHAT CAN BE EXPECTED IN THE NEXT
AFTERNOON AND EVENING PERIODS. SIMILAR REGIME ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
CONUS WITH DECENT GULF MOISTURE LINGERING AROUND AND BEST DYNAMICS
STAYING NORTH ACROSS THE OHIO/TENNESSEE VALLEYS WITHIN THE LARGELY
ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. THE BEST FOCUS FOR CONVECTION WILL BE WITH A
LINGERING WEAK LEE TROUGH IN THE SOUTHEAST PORTION...OROGRAPHIC
ENHANCEMENT IN THE NORTH...AND ANY REMNANT BOUNDARIES FROM PREVIOUS
STORMS. HAVE GONE WITH OVERALL CHANCE POPS AREA-WIDE BOTH
AFTERNOONS. SOME STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE EACH DAY WITH
DAMAGING DOWNBURST WINDS AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING AS MAIN THREATS. NAM
BUFR SOUNDINGS INDICATE PRETTY IMPRESSIVE LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES
NEARLY DRY ADIABATIC UP TO 700/650 MB. SHOULD BE DECENT CAPE
EACH DAY. PATCHY FOG LIKELY EACH MORNING IN AREAS THAT SEE
SHOWER/STORM ACTIVITY THE PREVIOUS EVENINGS.

TEMPS LOOK TO STAY SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN LOW
90S FOR MOST AREAS AND LOWS IN UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S.

BAKER

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED
EACH DAY THROUGH THE LONG TERM.

WEAK TROUGH STILL IN PLACE ACROSS CENTRAL GA WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BUT
WILL EVENTUALLY DISSIPATE ON THURSDAY. ALOFT...A WEAK SHEAR AXIS
WILL REMAIN THROUGH FRIDAY. THE DISSIPATING BOUNDARY AND SHEAR AXIS
ALOFT MAY SERVE TO FOCUS ANY CONVECTION THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.

A WEAK FRONT IS STILL ON TRACK FOR THE MID TO LATE WEEKEND. WITH
SUCCESSIVE RUNS...THE MODELS HAVE SLOWED THE SOUTHWARD PROGRESS OF
THE BOUNDARY. CURRENTLY...THE FRONT SHOULD MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN GA
LATE SATURDAY/EARLY SUNDAY THEN STALL ACROSS CENTRAL GA BY LATE
SUNDAY/EARLY MONDAY. THE FRONT LOOKS TO BECOME DIFFUSE BY TUESDAY.

TEMPS STILL EXPECTED TO BE ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

NLISTEMAA

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z UPDATE...
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH MUCH OF PERIOD. SCT TO BKN CU FIELD THIS
AFTERNOON IN 4-6 KFT RANGE AND SOME LINGERING MID LEVEL SCT DECK
AS WELL. BEST CHANCE FOR TSRA AFTER 18Z TODAY SO HAVE INCLUDED
TEMPO GROUP. HIGHER GUSTS POSSIBLE WITH ANY STORM DEVELOPMENT
ALONG WITH REDUCED VSBYS. INITIAL CALM TO LIGHT VRB WINDS BECOMING
SW TO WEST 7 KTS AND UNDER.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...12Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM ON AFTERNOON TSRA TIMING.
HIGH ALL ELSE.

BAKER

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          95  70  94  72 /  40  30  40  20
ATLANTA         92  73  90  74 /  40  30  40  20
BLAIRSVILLE     87  66  85  68 /  40  30  40  20
CARTERSVILLE    93  68  91  71 /  40  30  40  20
COLUMBUS        95  74  92  75 /  40  30  40  20
GAINESVILLE     91  71  90  73 /  40  30  40  20
MACON           94  71  93  73 /  40  30  40  20
ROME            93  68  92  71 /  40  30  40  20
PEACHTREE CITY  92  69  90  70 /  40  30  40  20
VIDALIA         94  74  94  74 /  40  30  40  20

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BAKER
LONG TERM....NLISTEMAA
AVIATION...BAKER





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