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Area Forecast Discussion

948
FXUS62 KFFC 260708
AFDFFC

Area Forecast Discussion...Updated for aviation
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
300 am PM EDT THU MAY 26 2016



.UPDATE...
Current sat/radar/obs show some shower activity across central
and western AL... associated with an MCS across the TN valley
sustained by a few weak speed maxima in the mid levels. Have
introduced a slight chance showers across NW Ga for a few hrs
after sunset...but expect this activity to continue a weakening
trend as it approaches our area and encounters drier air. Rest of
forecast on track. Veering winds overnight along with the
advection of some upstream convective cloud debris should keep low
temps a tad above MOS guidance.

Thursday still looks like an overall pleasant day. Moisture will
continue to gradually increase and allow for the possibility of a
few afternoon thunderstorms as dewpoints rise into the low 60s.
However...subsidence associated with ridging both at sfc and aloft
should be more dominant and keep convection suppressed for the
most part. Best chance still looks to be in the mtn terrain where
upslope flow could lift a few parcels to their LFC in a marginally
unstable environment. A few very weak...mainly convectively
induced mid level perturbations advecting in from the west may
spark a shower or storm elsewhere...but chances remain low. High
temps in the upper 80s to near 90.

Kovacik

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 745 PM EDT WED MAY 25 2016/

SHORT TERM /Tonight through Thursday Night/...
Short range models in pretty good agreement for tonight. The short
wave currently moving across the Tennessee Valley has lost a lot of
strength and as of this writing there were no showers associated
with it in Georgia or upstream. Will hold on to low end pops for the
rest of this afternoon and continue with dry conditions tonight.
Models differ on Thursday with the GFS increasing pops to good
chance across north GA while the NAM is remaining very nearly dry.
Hi-Res models are indicating some convection across just about
anywhere in the CWA. Will maintain current pops for Thursday with
chance to slight chance across north GA Thursday afternoon. Any
convection that does develop will dissipate after sunset Thursday
evening. Temps will remain near to just above normal through the
short term.

17

LONG TERM /Friday through Wednesday/...
Only tweaks to the long term based on the latest guidance.

BDL

Previous Discussion...
Extended forecast period starts out somewhat quiet as subsidence and
slightly drier air push in from the east ahead of the western
Atlantic low Friday through much of Saturday. Deep Atlantic moisture
pushes in by Sunday as the western Atlantic system edges closer.
First half of next week looks to be potentially quite wet as this
system lingers over the region. Still some differences between the
GFS and ECMWF models concerning some of the details...but both show
some manner of weak upper-level and surface low pressure wobbling
around the Carolinas and Georgia. Precipitable water values are
forecast to be in the 1.5-2.0 inch range through the period but weak
mid-level lapse rates keep instability minimal.

20

AVIATION...
06Z Update...
Expectin vfr through the period. Some mid/high clouds this morning
then some diurnal cumulus 040-050. Convective potential too
marginal to mention at any site...however best chances should remain
north of KATL-KAHN. Winds light and variable becomins just west of
south after 15z.


//ATL Confidence...06Z Update...
High on all elements

41

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          66  88  65  87 /   5  30  20  10
Atlanta         68  87  67  85 /   5  20  10  20
Blairsville     60  83  63  82 /  10  40  20  30
Cartersville    66  88  68  86 /  10  20  10  20
Columbus        68  89  68  87 /   5  20  10  10
Gainesville     66  85  67  84 /   5  30  20  20
Macon           64  90  64  87 /   5  20  10   5
Rome            63  88  66  87 /  20  20  10  30
Peachtree City  64  88  64  85 /   5  20  10  10
Vidalia         66  89  65  88 /   5  20   5   5

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...41
LONG TERM....Deese
AVIATION...41



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