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Area Forecast Discussion

856
FXUS62 KFFC 191921
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
321 PM EDT SUN APR 19 2015


.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
WARM FRONT IS SITUATED ACROSS EXTREME NORTHEAST GA THIS AFTERNOON.
LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS FINALLY MOVING OUT OF THE
CWFA...BUT A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH THE
EARLY EVENING...MAINLY IN QLCS TYPE SEGMENTS.

HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS DO NOT SHOW MUCH IN THE WAY OF PRECIPITATION
FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. DO THINK AFTER THE CURRENT PRECIP MOVES OUT
OF THE AREA...THERE WILL BE A BREAK DURING THE MID TO LATE EVENING
HOURS. BY SUNRISE...A COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN APPROACHING THE NW
CORNER OF THE STATE AND THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
BEGIN INCREASING AGAIN.

THERE IS STILL SOME POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE CWFA ON MONDAY. ACROSS THE NORTH...SEVERE WEATHER IS LESS LIKELY
AS THE FRONT SHOULD MOVE THROUGH DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS AND
SURFACE HEATING WILL BE LIMITED. AREAS FURTHER SOUTH SHOULD
DESTABILIZE THE MOST. IN ADDITION...A NEGATIVELY TILTED 500MB TROUGH
WILL SWING THOUGH AND A COUPLED UPPER JET STRUCTURE WILL LEAD TO
EXCELLENT UPPER DIVERGENCE. STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL ALSO BE
PRESENT. 0 TO 6 KM SHEAR VALUES HAVE INCREASED A BIT TO AROUND 50KT.
AT THIS TIME...THINK THE AREA THAT HAS THE MOST POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE
WEATHER MONDAY WILL BE ALONG AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM LA GRANGE TO
ATHENS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE
HAIL...GUSTY WINDS AND ISOLATED TORNADOES. THE MOST LIKELY TIMING
SHOULD BE LATE MORNING THROUGH EARLY EVENING.

QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE FRONT. POPS WILL
DECREASE RAPIDLY MID TO LATE EVENING.


NLISTEMAA


.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NO CHANGES MADE TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION IS BELOW.

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE EXTENDED
FORECAST PERIOD...AT LEAST W/RESPECT TO THE LARGER SCALE PATTERNS. AS
WOULD BE EXPECTED THE LATER INTO THE RUN THE MORE THERE ARE
DIFFERENCES IN STRENGTH AND TIMING OF SOME OF THE SMALLER FEATURES...
BUT OVERALL A GENERAL BLEND AND CONCENTRATION ON THE LARGER SCALE WAS
USED FOR THE LONG TERM FORECAST GRIDS.

PERIOD STARTS OUT WITH THE CURRENT SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE REGION
NOW FINALLY EXITING...USHERING IN A DRIER AND SEASONABLY MILD
AIRMASS IN ITS WAKE THROUGH TUESDAY. MOISTURE RETURN BEGINS
WEDNESDAY AS THE SURFACE RIDGE SLIPS EAST OF THE STATE. WEAK SHORT
WAVES IN THE WESTERLY UPPER FLOW AND A WEAK COLD FRONT BRING AT
LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION BACK INTO THE NORTH. THIS
WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY HANGS AROUND THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK
WEEK KEEPING SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST.
BETTER CHANCES FOR RAIN SWEEP BACK IN FOR THE WEEKEND AS A
STRONGER SHORT WAVE SWEEPS THROUGH THE REGION. BOTH THE GFS AND
THE ECMWF ARE GENERATING A DECENT SURFACE LOW OVER THE REGION
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SHORT WAVE. ENOUGH INSTABILITY WITH THE MID
WEEK SYSTEM FOR A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS...ALTHOUGH LACK OF
STRONG DYNAMICS AND MARGINAL NATURE OF THE INSTABILITY POINT TO
MINIMAL CHANCES FOR SEVERE WEATHER. WEEKEND SYSTEM SHOWING EVEN
LESS INSTABILITY...BUT STRONGER DYNAMICS INDICATE AT LEAST A
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR DEEPER CONVECTION.

20

AVIATION...
18Z UPDATE...
LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS QUICKLY EXITING THE
NORTHERN TERMINALS. RAPIDLY IMPROVING CONDITIONS EXPECTED. WINDS
SHOULD ALSO SWITCH AROUND TO THE SW SIDE WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR.
SHOULD BE A QUIET NIGHT...BUT IFR CIGS ARE LIKELY. TOMORROW IS
EXPECTED TO BE ANOTHER ACTIVE DAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH
THE REGION.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...18Z UPDATE...
MED CONFIDENCE ALL ELEMENTS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          63  77  53  70 /  40  60  20   5
ATLANTA         64  75  53  68 /  30  50  10   5
BLAIRSVILLE     59  70  46  63 /  50  60  30   5
CARTERSVILLE    62  74  49  68 /  40  50  10   5
COLUMBUS        64  80  55  73 /  30  50  10   5
GAINESVILLE     62  73  52  67 /  40  60  20   5
MACON           64  80  55  73 /  40  50  10   5
ROME            61  73  49  69 /  50  50  10   5
PEACHTREE CITY  63  77  51  70 /  30  50  10   5
VIDALIA         68  82  60  75 /  50  50  40   5

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TORNADO WATCH UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: EMANUEL...MONTGOMERY...TELFAIR...TOOMBS...TREUTLEN...
WHEELER.

FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 2 AM EDT MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
BALDWIN...BANKS...BLECKLEY...CLARKE...CRISP...DODGE...DOOLY...
EMANUEL...GLASCOCK...GREENE...HANCOCK...HOUSTON...JACKSON...
JEFFERSON...JOHNSON...LAURENS...MADISON...MONTGOMERY...MORGAN...
OCONEE...OGLETHORPE...PULASKI...PUTNAM...TALIAFERRO...TELFAIR...
TOOMBS...TREUTLEN...TWIGGS...WARREN...WASHINGTON...WHEELER...
WILCOX...WILKES...WILKINSON.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...NLISTEMAA
LONG TERM....20
AVIATION...NLISTEMAA



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