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Area Forecast Discussion

652
FXUS62 KFFC 311945
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
345 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
LARGELY A PERSISTENCE FORECAST ON TAP AS LITTLE CHANGE TO CURRENT
REGIME IS EXPECTED. SFC HIGH REMAINS NW OF THE AREA DESPITE SOME
WEAK INVERTED RIDGING EAST OF THE APPALACHIANS IMPINGING MORE EAST
FLOW INTO THE NE CWA. GREATEST INSTABILITY GRADIENT REMAINS ACROSS
CENTRAL GA ALONG WITH A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED FROM NEAR
COLUMBUS TO MACON. THIS FEATURE ALONG WITH THE MORE ENHANCED
MOISTURE GRADIENT SHOULD HAVE LITTLE CHANGE IN LOCATION /PERHAPS A
BIT FARTHER SOUTH/ FOR SATURDAY. HAVE INCLUDED CHANCE POPS AGAIN FOR
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON TO EVENING. BUFR SOUNDINGS IN
THE SOUTHEAST /MORESO THE NAM/ WITH DECENT LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES
AGAIN FOR SATURDAY AND AS RECENT RADAR TRENDS HAVE INDICATED THUS
FAR...COULD SEE SOME STRONG STORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS AND FREQUENT
LIGHTNING AND AN ISOLATED SEVERE CANNOT BE RULED OUT. COULD BE
DEALING WITH SOME PATCHY MORNING FOG IN AREAS THAT RECEIVE PRECIP
THIS EVENING SO WILL NEED TO MONITOR FOR FUTURE UPDATES.

TEMPS SHOULD STAY NEAR CLIMO NORMS THRU THE PERIOD. HAVE GONE
SLIGHTLY HIGHER ON DEWPOINTS AS WHAT HAS TRENDED RECENTLY BEHIND
THE FRONT.

BAKER


.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
OVERALL LONG TERM TRENDS LOOK TO BE ON TRACK SO HAVE AVOIDED
MAKING ANY WHOLESCALE CHANGES TO THE FORECAST. HAVE MADE MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPS AND DEW POINTS FOR BETTER NEIGHBOR
CONSISTENCY AND TO USE THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE DATA. THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

31

/ISSUED 341 AM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015/
MODELS ARE SHOWING GOOD AGREEMENT ON A WEAK COLD FRONT STALLED
ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL GEORGIA SATURDAY NIGHT... SAGGING FURTHER
SOUTH AND INTO SOUTH GEORGIA ON SUNDAY...THEN INTO NORTH FLORIDA
ON MONDAY. THIS SHOULD LESSON THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK AS A DRIER AIR MASS SETTLES
OVER THE REGION. THE COMBINATION OF A MOIST SOUTHERLY SURFACE TO
MID LEVEL FLOW AND SUBTLE UPPER DISTURBANCES FROM THE WEST WILL
BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BACK TO THE FORECAST
AREA FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. MODEST INSTABILITY AND WEAK DEEP
LAYER WIND SHEAR CONTINUES TO SUGGEST ANY AFTERNOON/EVENING STORMS
SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SEVERE LIMITS.

BEHIND THE FRONT... A DRIER AIR MASS WILL HELP HOLD HEAT INDICES
BELOW THE 100 DEGREE MARK FOR MOST AREAS FOR SUNDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY. THEN AS GULF MOISTURE BEGINS TO CREEP NORTHWARD... NEAR
CRITICALLY HIGH HEAT INDICES ARE LIKELY TO RETURN TO MUCH OF THE
AREA BY MID WEEK.

39

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z UPDATE...
MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH PERIOD ACROSS AREA WITH
AFTERNOON/EVENING SHRA/TSRA POTENTIAL GREATEST FOR SOUTHERN SITES
ALONG WITH POSSIBLE REDUCED VSBYS. DEPENDING ON WHERE PRECIP
OCCURS TODAY...MAY NEED TO INCLUDE MVFR VSBYS FOR EARLY MORNING
TOMORROW. CIGS IN 4-6 KFT RANGE WITH CU FIELD THEN MOSTLY CLEAR
OVERNIGHT AND SIMILAR TREND AGAIN FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON. PRECIP
CHANCES AGAIN STAYING IN SOUTHERN TIER FOR SATURDAY. WINDS HAVE
BEEN TRICKY THIS AFTERNOON INTO EVENING AS KATL AND NEARBY SITES
MAY HAVE SOME WAVERING BETWEEN EAST AND NNW BUT SHOULD MAINLY
STAY EAST OF NORTH AND CLOSE TO NORTH OVERNIGHT BEFORE NE AGAIN
FOR SATURDAY.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...18Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM TO LOW ON AFTERNOON/EVENING WINDS TODAY.
MEDIUM ON PRECIP CHANCE THIS AFTERNOON NEAR KATL.
HIGH ON ALL ELSE.

BAKER

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          70  94  69  94 /  10  10  10  10
ATLANTA         72  93  72  93 /  10  10  10  10
BLAIRSVILLE     59  88  60  88 /  10   5  10  10
CARTERSVILLE    64  93  64  94 /   5   5  10  10
COLUMBUS        75  94  73  95 /  30  40  20  20
GAINESVILLE     69  92  69  92 /  10   5  10  10
MACON           73  92  71  95 /  30  40  20  20
ROME            62  94  63  93 /   0   5   5  10
PEACHTREE CITY  68  92  67  93 /  20  10  10  10
VIDALIA         74  91  73  93 /  40  50  30  30

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BAKER
LONG TERM....31
AVIATION...BAKER



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