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Area Forecast Discussion

FXUS62 KFFC 290755

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
355 AM EDT FRI JUL 29 2016

.SHORT TERM /Today through Saturday/...
Short term forecast period sees persistent weak upper troughiness
over the region as the western Atlantic upper ridge weakens and
continues to get suppressed south and east. Medium range models
indicating that the weak short wave that has kept some active
weak convection across Tennessee overnight will remain over the
region but weaken further through the day today while weak surface
trough remains across north Georgia. This all points to a
continuation of the scattered...mainly diurnal...pattern of
convection. Instability should remain moderate at best so although
a few strong storms are possible...severe chances remain minimal.
Temperatures will remain highly dependent on the amount of cloud
cover and precipitation that materializes...but should show a
decidedly northwest to southeast gradient as will POPs.


.LONG TERM /Saturday Night through Thursday/...

Long range begins with with a persistent but weak long wave
trough that stretches from the Great Lakes southward into TN
Valley. This feature and the associated subtle disturbances
traversing through the upper flow should help enhance our chances
of mainly diurnally driven convection through the weekend. Weak
wind shear and moderate instabilities suggest most afternoon and
evening storms should remain below severe limits... but with
added upper support... cannot rule out a few strong or isolated
severe storms across mainly parts of north GA over the weekend. By
early next week it appears the upper trough meanders slightly
eastward as an upper ridge over TX builds east. Although this may
lesson our convective chances a bit... still expect sufficient
moisture and instability to support at least a 30-40 percent pop
each afternoon and evening... with 20-30 percent warranted

The expected increase in clouds and precip chances should help
hold temps closer to seasonal norms over the weekend... then
expect another gradual warm up into mid next week with increasing
high pressure influence from the west.


06Z Update...
/ISSUED AT 125 AM EDT THU JUL 28 2016/
Area of MVFR ceilings across northwest Georgia currently is expected
to spread southeast through 16Z. Have included MVFR ceilings 12-15Z
in the Metro Atlanta TAFs but do not currently expect these ceilings
to reach KAHN or KCSG. Otherwise...mainly VFR conditions expected
outside of convection. Will see some local MVFR or lower
visibilities developing 06Z-14Z but do not expect any impacts at the
TAF sites. Winds will remain southwest to west 6KT or less through
14Z increasing to 7-10KT after. Scattered convection developing
after 16Z then diminishing after 00Z.

//ATL Confidence...06Z Update...

Medium concerning extent of the MVFR ceilings in the morning and on
the coverage of convection this afternoon. High otherwise.



Athens          92  72  93  74 /  30  30  30  30
Atlanta         90  73  90  75 /  40  40  40  30
Blairsville     86  69  88  68 /  40  40  40  40
Cartersville    89  72  91  72 /  40  40  40  30
Columbus        94  75  95  75 /  40  30  30  30
Gainesville     88  73  91  73 /  40  40  40  30
Macon           96  73  96  74 /  30  20  30  30
Rome            90  72  91  72 /  40  40  40  30
Peachtree City  90  72  92  72 /  40  40  40  30
Vidalia         98  75  98  75 /  20  20  30  20





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