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Area Forecast Discussion

861
FXUS62 KFFC 181505
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
1005 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014

.UPDATE...
SOME LIGHT SHOWERS MAINLY CONFINED TO FAR NORTH CWA THIS MORNING
SHOULD TAPER OFF BY EARLY AFTERNOON WITH WEAK UPPER WAVE PUSHING
EAST. CANNOT RULE OUT BRIEF SLEET IN SOME HIGHER ELEVATIONS BUT
SHOULD BE WARMING UP. TEMPS TRENDING A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN
FORECAST...POSSIBLY DUE TO SOME WEAK EVAP COOLING AND ENHANCED
CLOUD COVERAGE...SO HAVE BUMPED DAYTIME HIGHS DOWN A BIT IN THE
NORTH AND NORTHWEST. OTHERWISE FORECAST LOOKS TO BE ON TRACK AND
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

BAKER

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 624 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 336 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014/

.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL FEATURE IN THE ZONAL FLOW ALOFT HAS USHERED MOISTURE
INTO THE REGION THIS MORNING...MOSTLY SEEN IN INCREASING CLOUD
COVER. MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THAT AS THE MID LEVELS
MOISTEN...THE MAIN WAVE FEATURE COULD PRODUCE SOME LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS IN THE FAR NORTHERN ZONES...PARTICULARLY LATE MORNING INTO
EARLY AFTERNOON. MODELS /INCLUDING THE HI-RES SOLUTIONS/ HAVE BACKED
OFF ON THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THE PRECIP...AND HAVE FOLLOWED SUIT IN
THE POPS...WITH ONLY BRIEF SLIGHT CHANCE POPS CENTERED AROUND NOON.
WILL STILL SEE THE IMPACT OF THIS FEATURE IN CLOUD COVER...WITH
GENERALLY PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS THE STATE.

EXPECT GRADIENT IN HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY AS A RESULT OF THE AMPLE
CLOUD COVER...WITH ONLY HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S NORTH...AND LOW TO
MID 60S SOUTH. MOS GUIDANCE...PARTICULARLY FOR DEW
POINTS...CONTINUES TO BE THE OUTLIER...AND HAVE TRENDED MORE TOWARDS
THE NAM/MET FOR HIGHS AND DEW POINTS THROUGH THE SHORT TERM.

RAIN CHANCES RETURN LATE IN THE SHORT TERM AS NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES
THE STATE AND IMPACTS THE REGION THROUGH THE INITIAL PERIODS OF THE
EXTENDED FORECAST. BASED ON THE TRACK OF THE SYSTEM...MODELS SUGGEST
RAIN WILL MOVE IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST...WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
BEGINNING EARLY EVENING FRIDAY...AND EXPANDING AND INCREASING
OVERNIGHT FRIDAY. FOR NOW...HAVE CONTINUED WITH NO MENTION OF
THUNDER.

31

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SPELL OF DRY WX TO END BEGINNING THIS WEEKEND AND NEXT WEEK. FLOW
OVER MOST OF CONUS TO BECOME MORE ZONAL FRIDAY. MODEL PROGS IN
GOOD AGREEMENT ON SHORTWAVE OVER SRN PLAINS TO MOVE EAST TO MS
RIVER VALLEY FRI NIGHT. SOLID WARM/MOIST ADVECTION PATTERN KICKS
IN WELL IN ADVANCE OF WAVE. BASED ON TRACK OF WAVE...RAIN CHANCES
APPEAR CATEGORICAL FRI NIGHT AND SAT MORNING. HAVE BUMPED POPS UP
FROM MODEL CONSENSUS BLEND. WAVE FAIRLY OPEN SO ZONAL FLOW AND NO
STRONG SUBSIDENCE OR SFC RIDGING BEHIND IT. COULD BE GOOD PATTERN
FOR STRATUS...FOG AND DRIZZLE IF WE GET OVERRUNNING. KEPT SLT CHC
POPS GOING FOR MEASURABLE DRIZZLE OR LIGHT RAIN SAT NIGHT THRU SUN
NIGHT.

PATTERN BECOMES MORE AMPLIFIED OVER CONUS AS STRONG FLOW DIGS INTO
LARGE TROUGH OVER THE PLAINS. FIRST IN A SERIES OF SHORT WAVES TO
LIFT ENE ALONG GULF COAST OUT OF SOUTH TX SUN NIGHT. MODELS HAVE A
LITTLE HIGHER RAIN CHANCES MONDAY MIDDLE GA AND POINTS SOUTH AND
EAST AS WAVE QUICKLY LIFTS AND DAMPENS. AGAIN...SOUTHWEST FLOW IN
WAKE OF THIS WAVE SO EVEN BETTER OPPORTUNITY FOR FOG/DRIZZLE MON
NIGHT.

TUES...LARGE UPPER TROUGH WITH LOW CENTERED OVER IOWA. LOBE OF
VORTICITY OVER WRN TN TO LIFT NE THEN N OVER MIDWEST STATES.
TIMING AND LOCATION OF UPSTREAM WAVE WILL BE KEY TO PRECIP...BOTH
INTENSITY AND TYPE ON TUE NIGHT THRU WED NIGHT /XMAS EVE/. 00Z
ECMWF COMING MORE IN LINE WITH PREV GFS RUNS AND OTHER MED RANGE
MODELS WITH MAIN UPPER LOW REMAINING OVER MIDWEST STATES AND
SOMEWHAT LESS SHARP TROUGH AXIS THAN PREV EC RUNS...MOVING INTO
MID-SOUTH TUE NIGHT. MAIN THREAT IF ANY TUES NIGHT COULD BE HIGH-
SHEAR LOW-CAPE STORMS BUT LIKELIHOOD OF THAT DIMINISHED FROM PREV
EC RUNS. DRY SLOT SHOULD END PRECIP QUICK WED BUT SOME VERY LIGHT
RAIN SHOWERS OR EVEN SNOW SHOWERS POSS IN FAR NORTH GA AS VERY
COLD AIR ALOFT ROTATES THROUGH WED AND WED NIGHT. AGAIN...00Z EC
BACKING OFF ON AMOUNT OF COLD AIR AND UPPER LOW FORMATION FURTHER
SOUTH. DID KEEP SMALL CHANCES OF LIGHT RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS IN FCST
MAINLY IN HIGHER ELEVATIONS. NO REAL CHC FOR ANY PRECIP IN ATL
METRO OR MIDDLE GA AFTER 12Z WED. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR.

SNELSON

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z UPDATE...
ALTHOUGH MVFR VSBYS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH 14Z...IN GENERAL...VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. MID-LEVEL CLOUDS INCREASE
BY LATE MORNING...THEN DIMINISH OVERNIGHT WITH HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS
PREVAILING. NW WINDS OF 7KT OR LESS THROUGH THE PERIOD MAY FLIRT
WITH DUE NORTH OR POSSIBLY NNE BRIEFLY LATE MORNING.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...12Z UPDATE...
HIGH CONFIDENCE ON ALL ELEMENTS.

31

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          57  35  56  41 /   0   0   5  70
ATLANTA         55  37  55  44 /   0   0  10  70
BLAIRSVILLE     52  31  52  38 /  20   0   5  70
CARTERSVILLE    51  30  53  40 /  10   0  10  80
COLUMBUS        61  40  60  47 /   0   5  30  80
GAINESVILLE     55  36  53  41 /   5   0   5  70
MACON           61  36  61  44 /   0   0  20  70
ROME            49  30  52  39 /  20   0   5  80
PEACHTREE CITY  58  32  56  42 /   0   0  20  70
VIDALIA         63  41  63  48 /   0   0  20  50

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...31/BAKER
LONG TERM...SNELSON
AVIATION...31



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