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Area Forecast Discussion

193
FXUS62 KFFC 120029
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
729 PM EST THU FEB 11 2016



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 249 PM EST THU FEB 11 2016/

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
MAIN CONCERN IS ANOTHER SHORT WAVE AND SURGE OF MOISTURE IN THE
FAST UPPER FLOW THAT COULD CAUSED SCATTERED FLURRIES OVER MAINLY THE
MOUNTAINS COUNTIES. FLURRIES MEAN LITTLE OR NO ACCUMULATION.
THE DISTURBANCE IS FAST MOVING AND THE MOST LIKELY TIME FOR FLURRIES
IS ABOUT 09-15Z.

OTHERWISE CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE TONIGHT AND DECREASE LATE FRIDAY
AND FRIDAY NIGHT. WINDS WILL INCREASE SOME LATE FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT
AS THE GRADIENT FROM SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MID U.S. MOVES OVER
THE FORECAST AREA.

FORECAST LOW TEMPERATURES RUNNING NEAR NORMAL TONIGHT AT CSG AND MCN
AND 2-5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL AT ATL AND AHN. FORECAST LOW TEMPERATURES
RUNNING 4-9 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FRIDAY NIGHT.
FORECAST HIGH TEMPERATURES RUNNING 2-3 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FRIDAY AT
CSG/MCN AND NEAR TO 4 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL AT ATL/AHN.

OVERALL CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM.

BDL

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD STARTS OUR COLD AND DRY AS A COLD DOME OF
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY REGION ON
SATURDAY AND DRIFTS EAST TO THE NEW ENGLAND SEA BOARD BY LATE
SUNDAY. THIS FEATURE WILL BEGIN TO NOSE DOWN THE EAST SIDE OF THE
APPALACHIANS SUNDAY EVENING AND ESTABLISH A STRONG WEDGE OF COLD AIR
NOSING INTO NORTH AND PARTS OF CENTRAL GA BY SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY
MORNING. AT THIS SAME TIME... MODELS SHOW FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
A STRONG UPPER DISTURBANCE KICKING EAST OF THE PLAINS AND SPREADING
GULF MOISTURE OVER THE COLD WEDGE NEAR THE SURFACE... AND SETTING
THE STAGE FOR WINTRY PRECIP EVENT THAT BEGINS EARLY MONDAY MORNING
AND CONTINUES THROUGH TUESDAY. ALTHOUGH THERE IS STILL MUCH
UNCERTAINTY ON TIMING AND WINTRY PRECIP AMOUNTS... THE SCENARIO DOES
SUPPORT A CHANCE FOR PERIODS OF RAIN... SNOW... SLEET AND/OR
FREEZING RAIN ACROSS MUCH OF NORTH AND POSSIBLY PARTS OF CENTRAL
GA FROM EARLY MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MAINLY TUESDAY EVENING.

ALL INTEREST ARE ENCOURAGED TO STAY TUNED TO THE LATEST FORECAST
AND UPDATES FOR THIS POTENTIALLY HAZARDOUS WINTRY WEATHER EVENT
FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.

39

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...
NO MAJOR CHANGES PLANNED. HAVE ADDED A FEW FLURRIES TO TUESDAY
NIGHT DUE TO RESIDUAL MOISTURE BEHIND THE MONDAY/TUESDAY SYSTEM.
NO ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED WITH THE FLURRIES. H5 TROUGH SHIFTS
RAPIDLY EAST PUTTING THE CWA IN A DRY AND WESTNORTHWEST FLOW WITH
A RAPID REBOUND IN AFTERNOON TEMPS BY MID WEEK WITH TEMPS GOING
ABOVE NORMAL IN MOST AREAS.

17

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z UPDATE...
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT NORTHWESTERLY WINDS TO START THE TAF
PERIOD. WINDS WILL TURN TO THE NE IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND
CONTINUE OVER TO ALMOST DUE EAST BY 14-15Z. THE WIND ARE EXPECTED
TO GO BACK TO THE NW BY 18Z AND TO THE WEST BY 21Z. WINDS SPEEDS
WILL STAY 10KT OR LESS THROUGH 18Z FRI THEN INCREASE THROUGH THE
END OF THE TAF PERIOD TO 12KT GUSTING TO 22KT. WILL SEE SOME
CLOUDS MOVE IN OVER NIGHT WITH BKN030 EXPECTED JUST BEFORE
SUNRISE. WILL SEE SOME BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CEILINGS BETWEEN
13Z-17Z BUT THINGS SHOULD GET BACK UP TO VFR READING BY 18Z.  NO
PRECIPITATION OR RESTRICTIONS TO VSBYS EXPECTED.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...00Z UPDATE...
CONFIDENCE HIGH ON ALL ELEMENTS.

01

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          31  53  28  43 /   5  10   0   0
ATLANTA         35  56  29  40 /   5   5   0   0
BLAIRSVILLE     27  47  21  31 /  10  10   5   0
CARTERSVILLE    29  54  26  37 /   5   5   0   0
COLUMBUS        40  64  35  47 /   5   5   0   0
GAINESVILLE     31  50  27  37 /   5  10   0   0
MACON           38  63  33  47 /   5   5   0   0
ROME            29  55  26  37 /   5   5   0   0
PEACHTREE CITY  32  59  29  41 /   5   5   0   0
VIDALIA         43  65  38  51 /   5  10   0   0

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...01
LONG TERM....DEESE
AVIATION...01



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