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Area Forecast Discussion

458
FXUS62 KFFC 281100 AAA
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
700 AM EDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 325 AM EDT FRI AUG 28 2015/

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...

PROBABLY THE ONLY ASPECT OF THE LONG TERM PORTION WITH ANY
CONFIDENCE AT ALL IS THE INITIAL TIME PERIOD BEGINNING SUNDAY.
EVEN THEN...SOME UNCERTAINTY AS DEEP LAYER MOISTURE VALUES APPEAR
LOWER THAN MODEL RUNS FROM THIS TIME LAST NIGHT. THIS IS
ESPECIALLY TRUE OVER NE GA WHERE PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE
ONLY AROUND 1.25 INCHES ACCORDING TO THE GFS. THIS TRANSITIONS
QUICKLY TO HIGHER VALUES FOR THE SOUTHERN TIER WITH 1.75 IN FOR
THE MACON AREA BUT STILL ONLY SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN CLIMO. WILL
STILL BE DEALING WITH UPPER LOW WHICH LOOKS TO OPEN UP AND
TRANSLATE EAST OVER NORTH GA LATE SUNDAY. THIS SHOULD AID IN THE
DEVELOPMENT OF THUNDERSTORMS...PERHAPS HIGHER COVERAGE THAN THE
MOISTURE PROFILES WOULD SUGGEST. WILL CARRY HIGH END CHANCE POPS
FOR SOUTHERN SECTIONS AND KEEP IN MID RANGE CHANCE FOR REMAINING
SECTIONS.

FORECAST BECOMES A BIT MORE PROBLEMATIC AT THIS POINT AS
OPERATIONAL GUIDANCE DIVERGES FROM SOME OF THE TROPICAL GUIDANCE
MODELS AND THE OFFICIAL TRACK. SOME OF THE ENSEMBLE MEMBERS OF THE
GFS INCLUDING THE OPERATIONAL BRING THE SYSTEM ACROSS THE GULF AND
THEN NORTHWARD INTO GEORGIA. THIS WOULD BE IN STARK CONTRAST TO
CURRENT FORECAST WHICH KEEPS HIGHEST POPS OVER THE EASTERN TIER OF
GA AND MAY EVEN INCLUDE SUBSIDENCE FOR OUR WESTERN SECTIONS. PLAN
IS TO TAKE A LOOK 06Z GUIDANCE ON ERIKA AND TWEAK CURRENT FORECAST
TO BETTER MATCH ITS SOLUTIONS. WILL THEN AWAIT OFFICIAL GUIDANCE
AND TWEAK POP GRIDS FURTHER BASED ON THIS INFORMATION.

SO IN GENERAL...THE SOLUTIONS REALLY RUN THE SPECTRUM ON THIS ONE
AND COULD INCLUDE A SUBSIDENCE SOLUTION IN WHICH WE ARE LARGELY
UNAFFECTED WITH LITTLE RAINFALL TO ONE N WHICH SIGNIFICANT
MOISTURE MOVES IN A REMAINS CREATING A FLOODING SCENARIO FOR MUCH
OF THE AREA. AGAIN...WILL MENTION UNCERTAINTY IN HWO FOR THE
EXTENDED BUT CERTAINLY IN NO POSITION AT THIS POINT TO OFFER ANY
DETAILS FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.

DEESE

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z UPDATE...
MAINLY MVFR AND SOME IFR CEILINGS IMPROVING TO VFR SCT-BKN
3500-5000 FT LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. BEST CHANCE FOR ANY
THUNDERSTORMS IS ACROSS MAINLY CENTRAL GA. SURFACE WINDS
MAINLY E 10 KTS OR LESS.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...12Z UPDATE...
LOW TO MEDIUM CONFIDENCE FOR CEILINGS.
MEDIUM TO HIGH ALL OTHER ELEMENTS.

BDL

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          85  69  84  69 /  10  10  50  40
ATLANTA         86  70  83  70 /  10  10  60  50
BLAIRSVILLE     81  62  80  64 /  10  10  50  30
CARTERSVILLE    87  68  84  68 /  10  10  60  50
COLUMBUS        89  72  85  71 /  20  20  70  60
GAINESVILLE     83  68  83  69 /  10  10  50  40
MACON           88  71  85  69 /  20  20  70  60
ROME            87  68  84  68 /  10  10  50  50
PEACHTREE CITY  87  70  83  68 /  20  10  60  60
VIDALIA         89  71  87  72 /  40  20  70  40

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BDL
LONG TERM....DEESE
AVIATION...BDL



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