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Area Forecast Discussion

518
FXUS62 KFFC 250525
AFDFFC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
125 AM EDT WED MAY 25 2016



.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued /

UPDATE...

Just another fantastic evening and overnight period across the
forecast area. Current grids in great shape and no changes are
planned.

Deese

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 806 PM EDT TUE MAY 24 2016/

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 236 PM EDT TUE MAY 24 2016/

SHORT TERM /Tonight through Wednesday Night/...
Ridging influence and the associated dry weather pattern will begin
to weaken its grip through the short term as a more active southwest
flow aloft becomes established by late in the period. Not expecting
any rain chances for this short term forecast package... but would
not be surprised to see an isolated shower develop over the
northeast GA mountains Wednesday afternoon with help from orographic
lift. However... will just show 10-15% pops up that way for now.

Therefore... mainly a temperature forecast with mostly clear skies
and a light southwest wind allowing temperatures to dip into the mid
and upper 50s across most of north GA tonight... with lower 60s
expected further south. The warm southwest flow... coupled with
ample sunshine... will push highs on Wednesday into the upper 80s
for most areas... except cannot rule out a few spotty lower 90s
across the far southern reaches late Wednesday afternoon. Lows
Wednesday night will hold in the 60s across the area as the warming
trend continues under a southwest flow influence.

39

LONG TERM /Thursday through Tuesday/...
Only tweaks to the long term based on the latest guidance.

BDL

Previous Discussion...
General trends through the extended forecast period remain
relatively unchanged. Models still show a rather indistinct pattern
for this region. Overall...large-scale upper-level pattern continues
fairly static with the larger wavelength troughiness stuck across
the rockies and high plains and broad/weak ridging over the east.
Surface ridge shifts far enough east by Thursday for isolated to
scattered convection across the north. By the weekend...both the GFS
and ECMWF showing some manner of easterly wave moving in from the
western Atlantic and flirting with the region. This should be enough
to spread slight chance/chance POPs across the entire forecast area.
Both also linger some type of weak low over the region through early
next week which should keep a diurnally skewed scattered convection
pattern in place through the end of the forecast period as well.
Instability never forecast to be too impressive and no strong
forcing indicated so chances for strong to severe thunderstorms
appear to remain minimal through the period.

20


&&

.AVIATION...
06Z Update...
VFR conditions through the period. Hi-res models are producing a
little more convective coverage for today and Thursday...but the
best chances remain to the north of ATL at this time. The main
forecast challenge remains the winds. Boundary from the se is
showing up on the radar this morning...winds could go se for a few
hours around 12z this morning...but should go back to the w side
with mixing. Hi-res models showing winds going to the east side
again this evening and overnight. Speeds will remain light and
should average around 6kt or less.

//ATL Confidence...06Z Update...
Medium confidence winds. Otherwise...high confidence all elements.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          88  63  88  64 /  10   5  30  20
Atlanta         87  67  87  66 /  10   5  20  20
Blairsville     83  59  82  60 /  30  10  30  20
Cartersville    88  62  88  64 /  10   5  20  20
Columbus        87  65  88  67 /  10   5  10  10
Gainesville     85  65  86  65 /  20   5  30  20
Macon           88  64  88  63 /  10   5  20   5
Rome            88  62  89  64 /  10   5  30  20
Peachtree City  87  61  87  64 /  10   5  20  10
Vidalia         88  64  88  65 /  10   5  10   5

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$



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