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Area Forecast Discussion

FXUS62 KFFC 251100 AAA

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
700 AM EDT THU AUG 25 2016

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 342 AM EDT THU AUG 25 2016/

SHORT TERM /Today through Friday/...
500MB high pressure centered near the MS/AL border is expected to
drift up the Appalachians this short term period. Even though the
upper center will drift over the TN valley and southern
Appalachians today...a moist airmass remains in place with decent
instability forecast over the mountains. This will be the target
area this afternoon for showers and thunderstorms. The question is
how far s do shower and storm chances go. Drier air that moved
down the east coast cuts off the instability sharply as you move
into central GA. The place to monitor will be the ATL-AHN areas as
the better storms to the north will try to move toward this area.

Shower and storm development this afternoon is expected to
diminish quickly this evening.

With the upper high drifting up the Appalachians on Friday...the
chances of showers and storms will continue over mainly n GA for
the afternoon with even better instability forecast across the
mountains and slight chances for showers and storms a little
farther s than today.

Forecast high temperatures are running near to 4 degrees above
normal today and 3-6 degrees above normal for Friday. Low
temperatures tonight are running 3-4 degrees above normal at
ATL/AHN and near normal for CSG/MCN.

Overall confidence is medium to high.


LONG TERM /Friday Night through Wednesday/...
Long range models are showing fairly good agreement at least into
early next week... with an upper ridge currently anchored over
the deep south drifting eastward and settling along the mid
Atlantic Coast by Saturday-Sunday. There the GFS and ECMWF begin
to weaken the ridge influence as a low pressure system approaches
south Florida by Sunday. Although the GFS solution is much weaker
with this surface low... both models show fairly good agreement
with timing and position... taking the low across far south
Florida Sunday-Monday... then northward along the west Florida
coast on Monday and Tuesday. At this time... both models are
showing some form of this surface low pushing inland somewhere
between Apalachicola and Tampa Florida either late Tuesday or
early Wednesday. The ECMWF is the stronger and slightly faster
solution... showing a deep low pressure system then tracking
northeastward across south Georgia on Wednesday and across the
Carolinas on Thursday. The GFS just meanders a much weaker surface
low over far north Florida and south Georgia on Wednesday and
Thursday. Either way... confidence is increasing that at least
parts of south Florida could be impacted by a tropical low by late
this weekend... then much uncertainty exist beyond Sunday.
Therefore... all interest across the deep south are strongly
encouraged to continue closely monitoring the tropics over the
next several days.



12Z Update...
Any fog will dissipate quickly. Sct-Bkn SC/CU 4000-6000 ft
today. Best chances for storms will be well N of ATL but will
be moving S today and will need to be watched with respect to
the ATL area Tafs. Surface winds light and variable becoming
mainly ENE less than 10 kts for the afternoon then calm or light

//ATL Confidence...12Z Update...
Low confidence for any convection to the N affecting ATL.
Medium-High confidence all other elements.



Athens          92  72  93  73 /   5   5  20  10
Atlanta         91  74  93  74 /  10   5  20  10
Blairsville     87  67  88  68 /  50  20  50  20
Cartersville    91  71  92  72 /  20  10  40  20
Columbus        92  72  94  73 /   5   5   5   5
Gainesville     89  73  91  73 /  20  10  30  10
Macon           93  69  95  71 /   0   0   5   5
Rome            92  71  93  72 /  20  10  50  20
Peachtree City  91  69  93  70 /   5   5  20  10
Vidalia         94  72  95  71 /   0   5   5   5





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