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Area Forecast Discussion

842
FXUS62 KFFC 031909
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
309 PM EDT MON AUG 3 2015



.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...


PRETTY QUIET FORECAST PERIOD CONTINUES WITH LARGELY DRY AND WEAK NW
FLOW ALOFT SERVING TO INHIBIT THE TYPICAL SUMMERTIME CONVECTION.
ASIDE FROM A WEAKENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING SLOWLY ACROSS
NORTHERN FL INTO FAR SE GA AND SOME OROGRAPHIC ENHANCEMENT IN THE
FAR NE MOUNTAINS...POPS ARE LIMITED MAINLY TO THESE AREAS FOR ANY
SHOWER AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. THE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE ADVECTION OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST HAS PROVEN TO BRING
PATCHY EARLY MORNING FOG IN PORTIONS OF THE EAST AND SOUTH...WHICH
AGAIN LOOKS TO BE THE CASE FOR TUESDAY MORNING. AN APPROACHING
WEAK DISTURBANCE IN THE UPPER FLOW SHOULD RAISE SOME PRECIP
POTENTIAL JUST BEYOND THE SHORT TERM.

TEMPS AGAIN LOOK REASONABLE BASED ON BLEND OF RECENT GUIDANCE THOUGH
WILL NEED TO WATCH HOW MUCH CLOUD COVERAGE COULD LIMIT DIURNAL RANGE
IN PORTIONS OF EAST CENTRAL GA WITH AFOREMENTIONED WEAK COASTAL LOW.

BAKER


.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST.

LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL BE DIGGING ACROSS THE EASTERN SEABOARD BY EARLY
WEDNESDAY. MODELS ARE PROGGING A FAIRLY POTENT SHORTWAVE TO ROUND
THE BASE OF THE TROUGH ON FRIDAY. THE CWFA WILL REMAIN IN NW FLOW
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BUILD BACK ACROSS THE
AREA FOR THE FIRST OF NEXT WEEK.

A COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO APPROACH THE CWFA LATE THURSDAY. THE
FRONT WILL EVENTUALLY STALL ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CWFA FOR THE
WEEKEND...BEFORE DISSIPATING BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

NLISTEMAA

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW...

LONG TERM PERIOD BEGINS WITH UPPER LEVEL WESTERLIES DROPPING
SLIGHTLY SOUTH INTO THE AREA WHILE SURFACE TROUGH DEVELOPS FURTHER
NORTH. THE COMBINATION OF THESE LOOKS TO INCREASE THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES INTO WED AFTERNOON. MODELS INSISTING THAT THERE WILL BE A
RESIDUAL LAYER OF DRY AIR IN PLACE ACROSS THE ATL METRO TO LIMIT
RAIN CHANCES BUT THINKING THIS WILL BE OVERCOME LATE IN THE DAY AS
UPSTREAM ACTIVITY MOVES IN. HAVE THEREFORE GONE ABOVE GUIDANCE
NUMBERS WITH MID RANGE CHANCE FOR ALL LOCATIONS.

THURSDAY CONTINUES TO LOOK LIKE THE MOST ACTIVE DAY FOR US THIS
WEEK WITH STRONG UPPER TROUGH AXIS SWEEPING ACROSS THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY AND INTO NORTH GA DURING TIME OF MAX HEATING. WOULD EXPECT
ACTIVITY TO BE NON DIURNAL IN NATURE FOR THE MOST PART GIVEN THE
LARGE SCALE FORCING. SHEAR VALUES ARE NOT ALL THAT IMPRESSIVE
DESPITE THE STRENGTH OF THE UPPER SYSTEM WITH ONLY A SLIGHT
UPTICK IN 0-1KM BULK SHEAR VALUES NOTED. DESPITE THIS...WOULD
EXPECT SEVERE POTENTIAL TO INCREASE THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON
WITH DAMAGING WINDS THE MAIN CONCERN.

TRANSITION TO NORTHWEST FLOW BY FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND WITH
STRONG IMPULSES MOVING THROUGH THE MEAN FLOW. ALTHOUGH DRIER AIR
WILL CERTAINLY MOVE IN THE FRONTS WAKE OVER NORTH
GEORGIA...THINKING STRONG DISTURBANCES WILL BE ABLE TO OVERCOME
THIS. POPS DURING THIS TIME PERIOD REFLECT THIS THINKING WITH GRID
VALUES HIGHER THAN THAT OF MODEL PROJECTIONS.

DEESE

.AVIATION...
18Z UPDATE...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THRU PERIOD WITH SOME EARLY MORNING
MVFR VSBY OR POSSIBLY IFR/MVFR CIG REDUCTIONS FOR THE EASTERN
SITES KAHN AND KMCN. OTHERWISE EXPECT SCT TO FEW CU FIELD IN 4-6
KFT RANGE FOR AFTERNOONS AND HIGHER OVERNIGHT WITH MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES. WINDS ARE TRICKY FOR LATE AFTERNOON INTO OVERNIGHT AROUND
KATL...COULD SEE WAVERING BETWEEN NNW AND NE THOUGH SHOULD BECOME
MAINLY NNW OVERNIGHT AND LIGHT WITH CALM WINDS AT OTHER SITES.
TUESDAY LOOKS TO HAVE LIGHT NW WINDS FOR NEAR KATL AND MORE WEST
FOR OTHER SITES. PRECIP CHANCES TOO LOW BOTH THIS AFTERNOON AND
TUESDAY FOR ANY MENTION IN TAF BUT CANNOT RULE OUT ISOLATED
ACTIVITY INTO THIS EVENING.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...18Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM ON WINDS FOR KATL AND EARLY MORNING VSBY/CIGS FOR
KAHN/KMCN.
HIGH ON ALL ELSE.

BAKER

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          72  96  73  96 /  10  10  10  30
ATLANTA         73  94  75  94 /  10  10  10  30
BLAIRSVILLE     62  89  65  87 /  10  20  10  40
CARTERSVILLE    68  94  71  94 /  10  10  10  40
COLUMBUS        74  97  75  93 /  10  10  10  30
GAINESVILLE     72  93  74  92 /  10  10  10  30
MACON           72  97  74  96 /  10  10  10  30
ROME            68  95  70  94 /  10  10  10  30
PEACHTREE CITY  70  95  72  94 /  10  10  10  30
VIDALIA         74  95  75  96 /  20  20  10  40

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BAKER
LONG TERM....NLISTEMAA
AVIATION...BAKER



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