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Area Forecast Discussion

406
FXUS62 KFFC 190552
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
152 AM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.UPDATE...
/ISSUED AT 915 PM EDT THU SEP 18 2014/
HAVE LIMITED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS TO PORTIONS OF THE NORTHEAST AND
REMOVED MENTION OF THUNDER AS ANY ISOLATED CELLS HAVE BEEN JUST
SHOWERS THIS EVENING. WEAK SHORTWAVE IN UPSTREAM FLOW AND SOME
ASSOCIATED SCATTERED CONVECTION IN WESTERN ALABAMA LOOKS TO
DIMINISH BEFORE BEING OF ANY CONCERN TO THE CWA OVERNIGHT SO HAVE
KEPT OUT POPS BUT EVOLUTION WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED IF SOME LOW
END CHANCES ARE POSSIBLE FOR WESTERN PORTIONS IF ENOUGH IS ABLE TO
HOLD TOGETHER. STORMS IN ALABAMA APPEAR WIDELY DISORGANIZED
HOWEVER. OTHERWISE HAVE MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO INCREASE
SCATTERED CLOUD COVERAGE FROM REMNANT ACTIVITY TO THE WEST AND
MINOR ADJUSTMENT TO TEMP/DEWPT TRENDS. WEDGE CURRENTLY BUILDING IN
FROM NE ACROSS CAROLINAS AND WILL HAVE TO KEEP EYE ON LOW CLOUD
DEVELOPMENT FOR THE MORNING AS GUIDANCE INDICATING SOME ENHANCED
975MB RH ACCOMPANYING THE WEDGE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

BAKER

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 808 PM EDT THU SEP 18 2014/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 306 PM EDT THU SEP 18 2014/

.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NORTHWEST FLOW WILL TRANSITION INTO WEAK ZONAL FLOW THROUGH THE
PERIOD.  A CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE IS MOVING TO THE EAST ACROSS THE
NORTHERN UNITED STATES TODAY.  AS THIS HIGH MOVES TO THE EAST...A
WEDGE WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA TOMORROW AND INTO SATURDAY.  ALL
OF THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A WEDGE DEVELOPING.  CLOUDS
WILL ACCOMPANY THE WEDGE TOMORROW AM AND ARE EXPECTED TO BREAK UP
TOMORROW AFTERNOON.

WITH THE WEDGE AND A SLUG OF MOISTURE MOVING INTO THE AREA...THERE
IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR RAIN AND EVEN THUNDER ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
CWA. HIRES MODELS AND MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT COVERAGE WILL BE
ISOLATED AND THAT THE CHANCE OF THUNDER WILL BE LOW.  ANOTHER CHANCE
OF RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS IS POSSIBLE SATURDAY ACROSS FAR
SOUTHEASTERN ZONES OF THE CWA.  NONE OF THESE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
BE STRONG AT THIS TIME.

AS FAR AS TEMPERATURES GO...USED CONSALL FOR THE SHORT TERM
TEMPERATURES AND TWEAKED THE HIGH TEMPS DOWN SLIGHTLY SATURDAY TO
ACCOUNT FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE WEDGE.

ARG

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HAVE MADE ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FORECAST TO ACCOUNT FOR
LATEST MODEL TRENDS...PARTICULARLY WITH THE TEMPERATURES AND DEW
POINTS. OVERALL FORECAST TRENDS LOOK TO BE ON TRACK...AND
WHOLE-SCALE CHANGES WERE AVOIDED. THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
FOLLOWS...

/ISSUED AT 439 AM EDT THU SEP 18 2014/
THE EXTENDED FORECAST STARTS OUT WITH A SLIGHTLY THE DRIER
AIRMASS OVER THE REGION AND A WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN
FROM THE NE. THIS WEDGE WILL BRING ATLANTIC MOISTURE BACK IN ACROSS
THE AREA WITH MAINLY OVERCAST SKIES FOR THE WEEKEND. THERE MAY BE A
FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL GA BUT NOT MUCH
EXPECTED. THIS WEDGE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT BEFORE ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES IN FROM
THE NW MONDAY MORNING. AS THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES INTO NORTH
GA THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WEAKENS A BIT WITH THE MAJORITY OF THE
MOISTURE STAYING NORTH AND EAST OF THE STATE. HAVE DECIDED TO
CONTINUE WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. ONCE THIS NEXT FRONT EXITS THE STATE
MONDAY NIGHT...ANOTHER DRY AIRMASS AND HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILD
IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES STATES THROUGH DAY 7.

01

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z UPDATE...
INITIAL VFR CONDITIONS WITH POTENTIAL FOR IFR CIGS SPREADING IN FROM
THE EAST BY AROUND 10-11Z THIS MORNING. KAHN HAS BEST CHANCE FOR
THIS TO OCCUR ALONG WITH REDUCED MVFR VSBYS. IF OCCUR... EXPECT IFR
CIGS TO SCT BY 15-16Z... WITH SCT TO OCNL BKN MID CLOUDS AROUND
4-5KFT EXPECTED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WINDS GENERALLY LIGHT ENE
BECOMING MORE EAST THIS MORNING WITH SPEEDS AROUND 7-9KTS TODAY.
PRECIP CHANCE TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN TAF BUT BEST CHANCE WILL BE NEAR
MCN LATER TODAY. A CONTINUED EASTERLY FLOW TONIGHT WILL BRING THE
POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF AT LEAST MVFR CIGS BY 09-10Z
TONIGHT.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...06Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM ON IFR CIGS THIS MORNING AND AGAIN LATE TONIGHT.
HIGH ON ALL OTHER ELEMENTS.

39

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          63  81  62  80 /  20  20  20  20
ATLANTA         65  83  64  79 /  10  20  10  10
BLAIRSVILLE     56  77  58  76 /  20  20  20   5
CARTERSVILLE    61  84  63  80 /  10  20  10   5
COLUMBUS        67  89  66  82 /  10  20  10  10
GAINESVILLE     62  80  62  78 /  20  20  20  10
MACON           65  86  64  82 /  10  20  20  20
ROME            60  86  62  83 /  10  20  10   0
PEACHTREE CITY  61  84  62  79 /  10  20  10  10
VIDALIA         68  85  67  83 /  20  30  20  40

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ARG/BAKER/39
LONG TERM...01/31
AVIATION...39








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