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Area Forecast Discussion

581
FXUS62 KFFC 270015
AFDFFC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
815 PM EDT TUE JUL 26 2016



.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 310 PM EDT TUE JUL 26 2016/

SHORT TERM /Tonight through Wednesday Night/...
The over all pattern continues through the short term. We have
been in this pattern for at least 2 maybe 3 weeks now and there
appears to be no changes in the near future. The main east-west
oriented upper ridge continues to control the weather pattern
across the southern CONUS. A wave developing over the northern
gulf is moving onshore the LA/MS/AL/FL coast bringing SHRA/TSRA
to the SERN states. This precipitation is moving northward over
over south GA and is beginning to push into the SW corner of our
CWA. Right now not seeing much thunder for our area...just showers
and they appear to be diminishing as they push northward. With the
increased gulf moisture moving into the region coverage may be a
bit more Wednesday than today. SBCAPE values are expected to get a
bit stronger Wednesday with reading in the 1800-2700 J/kg range so
may see a bit more potential for wet microbursts and lightning.
Temps should continue slightly above normal with Heat Index values
remaining below 105 so no advisory expected.

01

LONG TERM /Thursday through Tuesday/...
No major changes needed to the long term portion of the forecast.

Ridging aloft begins to break down by Friday into Saturday. This
should allow a weak trough to set up across the CWFA. The weak
trough should remain in place through Sunday or early
Monday...before riding begins to build back over the southeast for
the middle part of next week.

A weak lee trough may try to set up across eastern GA, but
overall,high pressure should dominate the sensible weather at the
surface.

Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected each day and should
be diurnal in nature. No strong indicators for widespread severe
weather are noted at this time.

NListemaa


&&

.AVIATION...
00Z Update...
Light showers diminishing across the area with the loss of daytime
heating. FEW high clouds or SKC expected overnight, with SCT CU
developing mid morning. Winds will stay SW-WSW through the period
with 5kt or less overnight and 6-10kt through the day. Have
continued mention of PROB30 TSRA for 19-23z for the Atlanta area
TAFs, but chances remain low, and would not be surprised if this
is dropped in subsequent TAFs as activity should be very isolated.

//ATL Confidence...00Z Update...
High confidence on all elements.

31

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          74  95  75  95 /  10  20  20  20
Atlanta         75  92  74  92 /  10  20  20  30
Blairsville     68  88  70  86 /  20  30  30  50
Cartersville    73  93  73  91 /  20  30  30  40
Columbus        74  94  74  95 /  20  20  20  20
Gainesville     75  92  74  91 /  20  30  30  30
Macon           74  96  74  98 /  10  20  10  20
Rome            73  92  73  91 /  20  30  30  40
Peachtree City  73  92  72  92 /  10  20  20  20
Vidalia         75  97  76  99 /  10  20  10  20

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...31
LONG TERM....41
AVIATION...31



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