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Area Forecast Discussion

564
FXUS62 KFFC 311956
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
356 PM EDT THU JUL 31 2014


.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...

CLOUDY AND RAINY CONDITIONS MEANS A GLOOMY END TO THE WEEK. HAVE
CONTINUED TO ADVERTISE AT LEAST SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR LATE
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT IN PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN AND SOUTHWESTERN
CWA...GRADUATING TO LIKELY POPS IN THE FAR NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS. THE
MAIN CONCERN WILL BE ACROSS NORTH AND PORTIONS OF EASTERN
GEORGIA...AND HAVE KEPT RAIN CHANCES HIGH THROUGH FRIDAY.
INSTABILITY CONTINUES TO LOOK LIMITED AS A RESULT OF THE LACK OF
INSOLATION/ AMPLE CLOUD COVER AND ALTHOUGH CONVECTION POTENTIAL IS
HIGHER THAN TODAY...STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED.
ACROSS CENTRAL GEORGIA COVERAGE SHOULD BE MORE LIMITED...BUT STILL
HAVE CONTINUED WITH CHANCE TO GOOD CHANCE POPS.

THIS PROLONGED WET PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND.
THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL...AND WPC
DOES HAVE PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST GEORGIA /AT LEAST FOR TONIGHT/
HIGHLIGHTED FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL POTENTIAL. THROUGH
FRIDAY...RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE THE HIGHEST IN THE NE GA
MOUNTAINS...WITH 1-2 INCHES AND ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS. FFG VALUES
FOR THE AREA DO SUGGEST THAT WITH THE SEVERAL DRY DAYS THIS
WEEK...SOILS SHOULD BE ABLE TO HANDLE THIS AMOUNT OF RAINFALL
WITHOUT SIGNIFICANT ISSUES. FOR NOW...HAVE HELD OFF ON ISSUING ANY
FLASH FLOOD WATCHES AT THIS TIME...BUT FOLLOWING SHIFTS SHOULD
CONTINUE TO MONITOR ACCUMULATED RAINFALL AND CHANGING CONDITIONS.

GLOOMY CONDITIONS WILL KEEP AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES LOW...AND IT IS
POSSIBLE THAT PORTIONS OF NORTH GEORGIA MAY NOT WARM INTO THE 80S.
HAVE GENERALLY GONE WITH A GUIDANCE BLEND.


31


.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...

LONGWAVE TROUGH CONTINUING INTO THE FIRST OF THE WEEK...FILLING
SOME BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. WE REMAIN IN A BROAD SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT WITH A SERIES OF SHORT WAVES CROSSING THE SOUTHEAST STATES.
HAVE MADE NO CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED AS IT CONTINUES TO LOOK LIKE
A WET PERIOD. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION IS INCLUDED BELOW.

41

.PREVIOUS...
/405 AM EDT THU JUL 31 2014/... WET WEATHER STARTING IN THE SHORT
TERM WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EXTENDED. LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER
EASTERN CONUS SLOWLY BEGINS TO FILL BUT AXIS REMAINS JUST TO OUR
WEST BEFORE LIFTING OUT TUESDAY. THIS PUTS GA IN MOIST
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH WAVES TRAVERSING THE
AREA OFF AND ON THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. WARM/MOIST
ADVECTION KICKS IN AND PROVIDES SUFFICIENT LIFT AND MOISTURE FOR
SHRA/TSRA EVEN DURING NIGHTTIME PERIODS. WILL STILL KEEP A DIURNAL
TREND THROUGH THE EXTENDED FORECAST BUT KEEPING IN GOOD CHANCE
POPS THROUGH THE NIGHT TIME HOURS. NOT SEEING ANY SIGN OF
PARTICULARLY INTENSE OR PROLONGED STEADY RAINFALL AS THESE WEAK
DISTURBANCES MOVE QUICKLY THROUGH THE AREA. BASIN AVERAGED
RAINFALL SHOULD REMAIN AROUND 1/4 - 1/2 INCH WITH ISOLATED HIGHER
AMOUNTS. THE 4-5 DAY QPF FORECAST SHOWS 1-3 INCHES STATE WIDE WITH
THE BEST RAINFALL STAYING SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CWA. WITH RAIN
EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH NEXT WEEK TEMPS WILL STAY
SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL NORMS.

01

AVIATION...
18Z UPDATE...
HIGH MVFR TO VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS...WITH
CONDITIONS DEGRADING TO IFR BY 08Z. SOME IMPROVEMENT IS EXPECTED
FRIDAY...BUT DO NOT ANTICIPATE VFR CONDITIONS UNTIL 18Z OR AFTER.
RAIN CHANCES ARE LOW ENOUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...AND HAVE
ONLY INCLUDED PROB30 -RA FOR THE 09-15Z TIME FRAME. PREVAILING
SHOWERS EXPECTED THEREAFTER. WINDS SHOULD STAY ON THE ENE-NE SIDE
AT 7KT OR LESS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...18Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ON ALL ELEMENTS...EXCEPT HIGH CONFIDENCE ON WINDS.

31

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          67  82  68  85 /  60  60  50  60
ATLANTA         68  82  69  83 /  40  50  40  50
BLAIRSVILLE     62  75  64  77 /  70  70  50  60
CARTERSVILLE    66  82  68  84 /  50  50  40  60
COLUMBUS        70  88  71  87 /  30  40  30  50
GAINESVILLE     66  78  68  81 /  70  70  50  60
MACON           70  86  70  86 /  30  40  40  50
ROME            66  83  68  83 /  50  50  40  60
PEACHTREE CITY  68  84  68  85 /  40  50  40  50
VIDALIA         72  90  73  91 /  30  50  30  60

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...31
LONG TERM....41
AVIATION...31





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