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NWS Peachtree City, Ga » Text Product » FFC Area Forecast Discussion
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Surrounding: BMX MRX FFC CAE TAE Current Version Previous Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 Area Forecast Discussion311 FXUS62 KFFC 030117 AAB AFDFFC AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA 917 PM EDT WED OCT 2 2013 .UPDATE... MADE A FEW TWEAKS TO THE GRIDS FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD...MAINLY INCREASED SKY COVER AND SUBSEQUENTLY RAISED LOWS A DEGREE OR TWO AS SATELLITE TRENDS CONTINUE TO SHOW AMPLE MID/HIGH-LEVEL CLOUD COVER. WITH THIS INCREASED CLOUD COVER I DO NOT EXPECT EARLY MORNING FOG TO BE AS WIDESPREAD OR DENSE AS WEDNESDAY MORNING...BUT WE WILL STILL LIKELY SEE AREAS OF FOG ONCE AGAIN. 20 && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 800 PM EDT WED OCT 2 2013/ SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... MAINLY A PERSISTENCE FORECAST THROUGH TONIGHT AND SHOULD AGAIN SEE PATCHY TO AREAS OF FOG WITH PROGGED LOWER DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS AND CALM WINDS. MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH UPPER RIDGE DAMPENING BY TOMORROW AND MORE ENHANCED MOISTURE NOSING INTO FAR NORTHERN PORTION OF CWA. SFC HIGH EAST OF THE AREA WILL ALLOW FOR WEAK SOUTH TO SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW...SO THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH OROGRAPHIC LIFT INFLUENCE TO MUSTER OUT AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SOME SHOWER DEVELOPMENT IN THE FAR NORTH. MAIN FORECAST CONCERN REMAINS BEYOND THE SHORT TERM WITH POTENTIAL INFLUENCE FROM A DEVELOPING TROPICAL SYSTEM FROM THE SOUTH AND FRONTAL SYSTEM FROM THE WEST BY THE WEEKEND. GUIDANCE BLEND HAS CONTINUED TO VERIFY WELL FOR TEMPS WHICH RESULTS IN VALUES AROUND 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR THURSDAY. BAKER LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... MAIN FOCUS OF THE EXTENDED REMAINS ON THE POTENTIAL TROPICAL SYSTEM THAT IS IN THE CARIBBEAN THIS AFTERNOON. STILL CONSIDERABLE DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF WITH THE GFS BEING FURTHER EAST THAN THE ECMWF AND ALSO STRONGER. THIS HAS AN IMPACT ON WHICH DAY WE EXPECT THE BEST POPS ACROSS THE CWA. IN ADDITION...THE GFS CLEARS THE FRONT OUT OF THE CWA BY TUESDAY WHEREAS THE ECMWF LINGERS THE FRONT THROUGH THE LONG TERM. CURRENT FORECAST LEANS TOWARD THE GFS AND MAIN CHANGE TO THE LONG TERM WAS TO INCREASE POPS TO CATEGORICAL FOR SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. HAVE ALSO TWEAKED THE WINDS TO SHOW A SLIGHT INCREASE FOR SUNDAY. FEW CHANGES TO THE FORECAST OUTSIDE THIS RAIN EVENT SO SEE THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW. 11 LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... UPPER RIDGE SHOULD KEEP OUR CWA DRY THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY...WITH THE DEEPER MOISTURE STAYING TO OUR WEST AND SOUTH. MODELS CONTINUE TO PUSH DEEP UPPER TROUGH INTO THE CENTRAL STATES OVER THE WEEKEND. ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MAY NOT REACH GA UNTIL LATE SUNDAY OR EARLY MONDAY. MAIN ISSUE IS TROPICAL SYSTEM FORECAST TO DEVELOP IN THE CENTRAL GULF AND THE POSSIBLE TRACK. FOR NOW...HAVE CONTINUED WITH BEST POPS FOR SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY NIGHT...AND DIMINISHING FROM THE WEST MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. LOOKS LIKE SOME OF THE TROPICAL MOISTURE SHOULD GET PULLED NORTHWARD ACROSS THE CWA AHEAD OF THE FRONT. STILL SOME DIFFERENCES ON FRONTAL PASSAGE AND CLEARING. ECMWF WANTS TO HANG ON TO RAINFALL INTO TUESDAY...BUT HAVE BLENDED WITH NEIGHBORS AND THE GFS BY ENDING ALL RAIN BY THEN. 41 AVIATION... 00Z UPDATE... ONCE AGAIN VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREDOMINATE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THIS FORECAST PERIOD WITH SCATTERED MVFR... AND LOCAL IFR...VISIBILITIES EXPECTED BETWEEN 06Z AND 14Z. ONLY TAF SITES WHERE I AM CURRENTLY CARRYING ANY VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS ARE KPDK/KAHN/KMCN. WITH AMPLE MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS EXPECTED THROUGH THE NIGHT I DO NOT EXPECT FOG TO BE QUITE AS WIDESPREAD OR DENSE AS THE PREVIOUS COUPLE OF NIGHTS. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT SOUTH TO EAST THROUGH 14Z...GENERALLY 3KTS OR LESS. INCREASING AND BECOMING SOUTHEAST TO EAST AFTER BETWEEN 3-6KTS. ONLY CEILINGS EXPECTED THROUGH AROUND 18Z WILL BE 15KFT OR HIGHER WITH SCATTERED CLOUDS 040-050FT...AND OCCASIONALLY BROKEN...AFTER 18Z. //ATL CONFIDENCE...00Z UPDATE... HIGH CONFIDENCE ALL ELEMENTS. 20 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... ATHENS 58 84 60 85 / 5 10 5 10 ATLANTA 63 83 65 85 / 5 10 10 10 BLAIRSVILLE 54 79 56 81 / 10 20 10 10 CARTERSVILLE 58 84 60 85 / 5 10 10 10 COLUMBUS 63 85 67 87 / 5 5 5 10 GAINESVILLE 61 82 63 82 / 5 10 10 10 MACON 58 85 60 86 / 5 5 5 10 ROME 57 85 60 85 / 5 10 10 10 PEACHTREE CITY 56 83 58 85 / 5 5 5 10 VIDALIA 60 85 65 86 / 5 5 5 10 && .FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...20 LONG TERM....NLISTEMAA AVIATION...20 |