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Area Forecast Discussion

742
FXUS62 KFFC 210003
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
314 PM EDT WED AUG 20 2014

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
DEALING WITH QUITE A BIT OF CONVECTION OUT THERE THIS AFTERNOON.
INCREDIBLE CAPE VALUES OF 4000-4500J/KG AND DCAPE OVER 1000J/KG OVER
MUCH OF THE AREA. WEAK DISTURBANCE ALOFT HELPING TO ORGANIZE SOME OF
THE CONVECTION AS WELL. WILL CONTINUE TO SEE SCATTERED TO AT TIMES
NUMEROUS STORMS WITH ISOLATED SEVERE POTENTIAL. WIND GUSTS WOULD BE
THE MAIN THREAT BUT SOME SMALL HAIL CANNOT BE RULED OUT. AND OF
COURSE AS WITH ANY SUMMERTIME THUNDERSTORM...VERY HEAVY RAIN AND
EXCESSIVE LIGHTNING.

UPPER RIDGE REMAINS IN PLACE TO OUR WEST LEAVING US IN NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT. INTERMITTENT DISTURBANCES WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE DOWN
THE NORTHWEST FLOW...BUT AS THE RIDGE BUILDS THE CHANCE OF RAIN WILL
DECREASE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS THE PERIPHERAL CONVECTION
PUSHES EAST. HOWEVER...IF CONVECTION DOES MANAGE TO DEVELOP AND GET
PAST WHATEVER CAP THERE IS FROM THE RIDGE-INDUCED SUBSIDENCE...
THUNDERSTORMS COULD EASILY AND QUICKLY GO SEVERE WITH THE AMOUNT OF
LOW LEVEL HEATING AND INSTABILITY. NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF
ORGANIZATION BUT SOMETHING TO BE AWARE OF.

SPEAKING OF LOW LEVEL HEATING...QUITE A FEW AREAS THIS AFTERNOON ARE
FLIRTING WITH 105 DEGREES. SOME UNCERTAINTY IN DEWPOINTS AS MET IS
COOLER BUT MORE MOIST AND MAV IS WARMER BUT DRIER...SO HAVE
GENERALLY TAKEN A BLEND BUT LEANED TOWARD THE WORST-CASE SCENARIO
GIVEN THAT DEWPOINTS THIS AFTERNOON ARE A FEW DEGREES HIGHER THAN
ORIGINALLY EXPECTED. WITH HIGHER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED
TOMORROW...WILL GO AHEAD AND ISSUE A HEAT ADVISORY FOR PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL GEORGIA FOR TOMORROW AFTERNOON. SEE EXTENDED FOR MORE
INFO...BUT WILL LIKELY NEED ONE FRIDAY AND POSSIBLY AGAIN ON
SATURDAY.

TDP

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MAINLY ONLY TWEAKS TO THE LONG TERM BASED ON THE LATEST GUIDANCE.

BDL

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE FORECAST AREA DOMINATED BY
STRONG UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE EXTENDED
FORECAST PERIOD. GFS AND ECMWF REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE
WEEKEND BUT DIVERGE SOMEWHAT GOING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH THE
ECMWF FLATTEN THE RIDGE OVER US WHILE THE GFS...ALTHOUGH SHOWING
SOME WEAKENING... KEEPS THE RIDGE OVER THE REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
STILL...THESE DIFFERENCES DO NOT ALTER THE GENERAL TREND OF HOT AND
MOSTLY DRY THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH MODERATING TEMPERATURES AND
INCREASING PRECIPITATION CHANCES EARLY NEXT WEEK...WHICH IS WHAT WE
HAVE BEEN CARRYING IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST FOR THE PAST SEVERAL
DAYS NOW. WITH THIS IN MIND I DO NOT PLAN ON DEVIATING TOO MUCH FROM
PREVIOUS TRENDS IN THE FORECAST GRIDS. THROUGH THE WEEKEND THE
GFS/ECMWF KEEP THE CENTER OF THE UPPER RIDGE WEST OF THE STATE WITH
THE BEST SUBSIDENCE REMAINING WEST OF US AS WELL. WITH THIS IN MIND
I WILL KEEP THE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS INTO THE WEEKEND WITH CHANCE POPS
AS WE HEAD INTO THE FIRST HALF OF THE NEW WEEK.

20

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z UPDATE...
SCATTERED CONVECTION CONTINUES BUT SHOULD GRADUALLY DIMINISH. COULD
BE SOME ISOLATED STORMS OVERNIGHT. WITH PLENTY OF MOISTURE AROUND
HAVE INCLUDED SCT IFR STRATUS TOWARD MORNING. SOME MVFR VISIBILITY
ALSO POSSIBLE. ANOTHER ROUND OF SCT 5-6KFT THURSDAY AFTERNOON BUT
NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE IN TSRA TO INCLUDE PROB30 AT THIS TIME. NW
WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...00Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM ON MORNING STRATUS. MEDIUM TO HIGH ON ALL OTHER ELEMENTS.

41

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          71  97  72  99 /  30  20   5  20
ATLANTA         74  96  75  95 /  40  20   5  20
BLAIRSVILLE     66  91  66  90 /  50  30  20  20
CARTERSVILLE    70  96  70  95 /  50  20   5  20
COLUMBUS        74  98  75  97 /  20  20  10  10
GAINESVILLE     72  95  73  94 /  40  20  10  20
MACON           72  98  72  98 /  20  20  10  20
ROME            70  96  70  96 /  50  20   5  10
PEACHTREE CITY  70  95  70  96 /  30  20   5  20
VIDALIA         74 100  75  98 /  20  20  10  20

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 8 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: BALDWIN...BIBB...BLECKLEY...CHATTAHOOCHEE...CRAWFORD...
CRISP...DODGE...DOOLY...EMANUEL...GLASCOCK...HANCOCK...HOUSTON...
JEFFERSON...JOHNSON...JONES...LAURENS...MACON...MARION...
MONTGOMERY...MUSCOGEE...PEACH...PULASKI...SCHLEY...STEWART...
SUMTER...TAYLOR...TELFAIR...TOOMBS...TREUTLEN...TWIGGS...
WARREN...WASHINGTON...WEBSTER...WHEELER...WILCOX...WILKINSON.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TDP
LONG TERM....BDL
AVIATION...41








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