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Area Forecast Discussion

001
FXUS62 KFFC 010115 AAA
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
915 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.UPDATE...
CURRENT FCST IN GOOD SHAPE. NO CHANGES REQUIRED.

SNELSON

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 329 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015/

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
CURRENT RADAR LOOP SHOWS SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA BUT ALL
IN ALL A MUCH DRIER DAY THAN YESTERDAY. MAIN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS
BUILDING IN ACROSS THE AREA AND SHOULD HELP TO KEEP PRECIP TO A
MINIMUM AT LEAST IN THE SHORT TERM. THERE IS STILL A DECENT AMOUNT
OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE BUT OVERALL INSTABILITY LOOKS TO BE
LACKING. THERE WILL BE A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE FAR E AND SE
COUNTIES WITH SOME ADDED MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY TUESDAY SO HAVE
CONTINUED WITH CHANCE POPS ACROSS THAT AREA OF THE CWA. HIGH TEMPS
STILL EXPECTED TO BE RIGHT AT OR SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL NORMS
TUESDAY WITH LOWS TONIGHT IN THE 60S AND 70S.

01

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
GFS/ECMWF STILL DIFFER IN THE SOLUTION FOR THE LONG TERM. FOR THIS
REASON HAVE NOT MADE MAJOR CHANGES TO THE GRIDS. PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

17

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 329 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015/
LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...

LONG TERM PORTION BEGINS WITH A RELATIVELY BENIGN PATTERN IN
PLACE...A STARK CONTRAST FROM WHERE WE COULD HAVE BEEN HAD ERIKA
BECOME A MAJOR PLAYER. INSTEAD...590DM UPPER HIGH DOMINATES THE
LOCAL AREA WITH A GOOD DEAL OF MID LEVEL DRY AIR IN PLACE TO KEEP
POPS AT OR BELOW CLIMO. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE THE EXTREME SE
CORNER OF THE FORECAST AREA WHERE NORTHERN FRINGES OF RESIDUAL
ERIKA MOISTURE LOOKS TO PROVIDE A JOLT TO POP CHANCES WITH LOW END
LIKELY PLANNED FOR WED AFTERNOON.

PRETTY MUCH THE SAME PATTERN THROUGH FRIDAY IS EXPECTED ALTHOUGH
MID AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE DOES BREAK DOWN A BIT. BUT NO
SIGNIFICANT UPPER LEVEL SYSTEMS OF NOTE TO IMPACT THE REGION AND
WITH ONLY MODEST DEEP LAYER MOISTURE VALUES...WILL HOLD POPS IN
THE LOW END CHANCE RANGE. BLEND IS GIVING ME SOME MAX TEMPS THAT
SEEM A LITTLE LOW EVEN WITH THE EASTERLY FLOW AND PLAN TO TWEAK
THOSE UP JUST A TOUCH.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE NE STATES LOOKS TO BRING A WEDGE
SCENARIO TO THE REGION FOR THE WEEKEND AND THIS PATTERN REALLY
WILL HOLD TEMPS IN CHECK WHILE INCREASING RAIN CHANCES. USING
MOISTURE FIELDS FOR POPS...COULD ACTUALLY SEE SOME LIKELY COVERAGE
FOR THIS PATTERN BUT THIS FAR OUT WILL LIMIT TO HIGH END CHANCE
FOR THE EASTERN SECTIONS.

DEESE

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z UPDATE...
NO AVIATION CONCERNS THIS FCST. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH VERY
LIGHT WINDS...LESS THAN 6KTS...THRU 00Z WED. ACTUALLY DIFFICULT
TO PICK ONE DIRECTION FOR PREVAILING SFC WINDS BUT SHOULD REMAIN
ON EAST COMPONENT.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...00Z UPDATE...
HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR ALL ELEMENTS.

SNELSON

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          69  90  70  91 /  10  10  10  30
ATLANTA         71  90  72  90 /  10  10  10  30
BLAIRSVILLE     63  84  64  86 /  20  20  20  20
CARTERSVILLE    67  90  69  92 /  10  10  10  20
COLUMBUS        71  91  73  92 /  10  10  20  20
GAINESVILLE     69  88  71  89 /  10  10  10  30
MACON           70  90  72  91 /  10  20  20  30
ROME            67  90  69  91 /  10  10  10  20
PEACHTREE CITY  68  89  70  90 /  10  10  10  30
VIDALIA         72  91  73  90 /  10  30  20  40

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SNELSON
LONG TERM....39
AVIATION...SNELSON



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