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Area Forecast Discussion

688
FXUS62 KFFC 062336 AAA
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
636 PM EST SAT FEB 6 2016

.EVENING UPDATE...
NO MAJOR CHANGES PLANNED FOR THIS FORECAST PACKAGE AS ALL ELEMENTS
LOOK ON TRACK SO FAR... WITH CLOUDS GRADUALLY PULLING OFF TO THE
EAST FOR MOST OF NORTH GA WHILE CLOUDS WILL LIKELY LINGER ACROSS THE
EAST CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST ZONES OVERNIGHT. LOWS GENERALLY IN THE
30S STILL LOOK ON TRACK. /39


.PREVIOUS DISCUSSIONS.../ISSUED AT 319 PM EST SAT FEB 6 2016/

...UNCERTAINTY EXISTS WITH EXTENT OF ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL MONDAY
INTO TUESDAY THOUGH KEEPING PREVIOUS THOUGHTS ON FORECAST...

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER LOW DEVELOPING OFF THE COAST OF SC/GA OVERNIGHT. EAST CENTRAL
ZONES ON THE EDGE OF THE PRECIPITATION WITH SOME LIGHT RAIN ALREADY
SHOWING UP ON RADAR. MEANWHILE...COLD CORE CLOSED UPPER LOW DROPPING
INTO THE SOUTHEAST TONIGHT. PARTIAL THICKNESS VALUES INDICATE A MIX
OF LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW IS POSSIBLE FOR MUCH OF THAT EAST CENTRAL
AREA LATER TONIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. NO ACCUMULATION OF SNOW
IS EXPECTED. THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE MOVING EAST OF THE FORECAST
AREA DURING THE DAY SUNDAY. FOR SUNDAY NIGHT...DEEPENING UPPER
TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL CONTINUE TO SEND COLD AIR SOUTHWARD
INTO THE FORECAST AREA. MOISTURE MOVING INTO NORTH GA STILL ON TRACK
TO PRODUCE SOME FREEZING PRECIPITATION BEGINNING LATE SUNDAY NIGHT.
HAVE CONTINUED WITH A CHANCE OR SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW FOR THE
FAR NORTH AFTER 06Z MONDAY AS PARTIAL THICKNESS VALUES COLD ENOUGH
FOR ALL SNOW.

41

&&

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MORE UNCERTAINTY EXISTS NOW WITH EXTENT OF POSSIBLE ACCUMULATING
SNOWFALL LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY GIVEN SOME RECENT INCONSISTENCY
IN GUIDANCE. OVERALL DEPTH OF SATURATION AND LAPSE RATES ARE NOT
AS IMPRESSIVE THOUGH STILL INDICATE THE MAIN TRANSITION OF RAIN
SHOWERS TO SNOW SHOWERS. HAVE JUST MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS THOUGH
HAVE LARGELY KEPT A PERSISTENCE FCST FOR NOW TO WAIT FOR MORE
RUN-TO-RUN AGREEMENT. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

BAKER

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 416 AM EST SAT FEB 6 2016/

LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST TRENDS WITH THIS
CYCLE. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS REMAIN CONSISTENT THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH
A COLD START AND A MODERATING SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK. WINTRY
WEATHER STILL LOOKS LIKELY ACROSS NORTH GEORGIA FROM EARLY MONDAY
THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY. BEST FORCING AND MOISTURE REMAINS IN THE
MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT PERIOD AS TEMPERATURES FALL. SHOULD SEE
PRECIPITATION START AS MOSTLY RAIN EARLY MONDAY BEFORE THE MORE
SIGNIFICANT PUSH OF COLDER AIR. SOME RAIN/SNOW MIXTURE IS LIKELY IN
THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS FROM ONSET. BY LATE IN THE DAY MONDAY THROUGH
THE EVENING...COLD AIRMASS COINCIDES WITH THE TAIL END OF THE BETTER
FORCING AND MOISTURE WITH LIMITED MOISTURE AND MAINLY COLD
ADVECTION/OROGRAPHIC INFLUENCES BY DAYTIME TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT LIMITING OVERALL SNOW TOTALS. STILL LOOKS LIKE WE WILL SEE A
DUSTING TO A HALF INCH FROM THE ATLANTA METRO AREA NORTHWARD WITH 1-
2 INCHES IN THE MOUNTAINS...ESPECIALLY NORTH THROUGH WEST FACING
SLOPES. HIGHEST RIDGETOPS COULD SEE HIGHER TOTALS. MOISTURE BECOMES
TOO SCARCE FOR ANY MENTION OF PRECIPITATION AFTER TUESDAY NIGHT...
BUT A FEW FLURRIES ARE NOT IMPOSSIBLE IN THE FAR NORTHERN MOUNTAINS
INTO THE DAYTIME WEDNESDAY.

TEMPERATURES BEGIN MODERATING BY THURSDAY AS THE UPPER-LEVEL FLOW DE-
AMPLIFIES WITH NEAR SEASONAL TEMPERATURES BY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

20

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z UPDATE...
VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH SOME PATCHES OF MID/HIGH CLOUDS.
CURRENT NNE WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SWITCH OVER TO NNW BY AROUND 03Z
TONIGHT... THEN SHOULD REMAIN NW ON SUN WITH SPEEDS AROUND 10-12KTS
WITH OCNL GUSTS BY LATE SUN MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON. WINDS
BACK MORE WEST AND DIMINISH BY SUN EVENING.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...00Z UPDATE...
HIGH CONFIDENCE ALL ELEMENTS...EXCEPT MEDIUM ON WIND SHIFT.

39

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          31  56  35  49 /   0   5   5  30
ATLANTA         32  55  37  48 /   5   5   5  30
BLAIRSVILLE     27  50  31  41 /   0   5  20  50
CARTERSVILLE    29  55  34  47 /   0   5  10  40
COLUMBUS        32  57  37  52 /   5   5   5  20
GAINESVILLE     32  53  35  46 /   0   5  10  40
MACON           32  57  34  54 /  10   5   5  20
ROME            29  56  34  46 /   0   5  20  40
PEACHTREE CITY  29  55  34  49 /   5   5   5  30
VIDALIA         36  55  36  58 /  30  20   5  10

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...41/39
LONG TERM....20/BAKER
AVIATION...39



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