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Area Forecast Discussion

636
FXUS62 KFFC 020112
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
912 PM EDT WED APR 1 2015

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 331 PM EDT WED APR 1 2015/

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
IN THE WAKE OF A DEPARTING SHORT WAVE THAT BROUGHT STORMS TO THE
AREA LAST NIGHT... HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER CONDITIONS HAVE
PREVAILED TODAY. THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT... WITH THE
MAIN CONCERN BEING PATCHY FOG AFTER MIDNIGHT. CLEAR SKIES... LIGHT
WINDS AND MOIST GROUNDS... ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS SOUTH OF THE I-20
CORRIDOR... WILL BE CONDUCIVE FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF PATCHY DENSE
FOG LATER TONIGHT. THIS MAY BE HINDERED THO BY MODELS SHOWING
EASTERLY WINDS INCREASING TOWARD MORNING AS A WEDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE NOSES DOWN FROM THE ENE. THE FOG WILL LIFT BY MID MORNING
WITH LOW AND MID CLOUDINESS LINGERING INTO THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
MODELS AGREE ON AN UPPER DISTURBANCE APPROACHING THE STATE
THURSDAY MORNING... WARRANTING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS
FAR NORTH GA LATE TONIGHT/EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. THE DISTURBANCE
COULD SPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO CENTRAL GA THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AS A DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASES MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITIES DURING DAYTIME HEATING. HAVE BLANKETED THE AREA WITH
A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS
THREAT ENDS THURSDAY EVENING AS DISTURBANCES PUSH EAST. EXPECT
PATCHY FOG TO RETURN THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY MORNING. A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES NW GA FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THIS COULD SPARK SCATTERED
STORMS ACROSS PARTS OF FAR NORTH GA FRIDAY AFTERNOON. NO SEVERE
STORMS ARE EXPECTED FOR THURSDAY OR FRIDAY AT THIS TIME. FOR
TEMPS...TOOK A MAV AND MET BLEND THROUGH THE SHORT TERM.

39

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
GFS/ECMWF MODELS CONTINUE TO AGREE ON TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT
MOVING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY
AS A UPPER TROUGH PUSHES IT THROUGH THE AREA. THE FRONT APPROACHES
NW GA AROUND 00Z SATURDAY AND EXITS EAST-CENTRAL GA BY 18Z
SATURDAY. SINCE THE BOUNDARY IS COMING THROUGH DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS...MODELS SHOWING LIMITED INSTABILITY. DEFINITELY
EXPECT THUNDERSTORMS ALONG/AHEAD OF THE FRONT...BUT NOT EXPECTING
SEVERE AT THIS TIME.

HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT LATER SATURDAY
INTO SUNDAY AND MOVES OFFSHORE ON MONDAY...WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW
ONCE AGAIN BRINGING GULF MOISTURE ACROSS THE STATE. DIURNALLY
DRIVEN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE MONDAY AND
TUESDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT WHICH GFS IS BRINGING ACROSS
ON WEDNESDAY. MODELS HAVE DIVERGED CONSIDERABLY BY MIDWEEK AND
WILL CONTINUE CHANCE POPS FOR NOW.

WILL CONTINUE TREND OF WARMER TEMPS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY
WITH COLDER AIR FILTERING INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE FRONT FOR
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. STAYED PRETTY CLOSE TO GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE  REST OF THE EXTENDED PERIODS.

ATWELL

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z UPDATE...
LOOKING AT THE REGIONAL VIEW OF CIGS AND VSBY...ALL VFR AT THE
MOMENT WITH NO HINT OF LOW CLOUDS OR FOG ALL THE WAY TO THE
GEORGIA AND SC COAST. MODELS INSISTENT THAT THIS WILL CHANGE
THROUGH TONIGHT AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES RAPIDLY FROM THE
SOUTH AND EAST ALLOWING FOR MVFR AND EVENTUALLY IFR CLOUD
CONDITIONS. HAVE DELAYED THE ONSET OF THIS BASED ON CURRENT
CONDITIONS WITH THE 00Z TAF ISSUANCE. ALSO INTRODUCED PROB30 FOR
TSRA FOR ATL WHICH SHOULD BE VERY LATE IN THE DAY TOWARD 22Z.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...00Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM ON IFR TIMING.
HIGH ON REMAINING ELEMENTS.

DEESE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          55  69  58  78 /  10  40  40  20
ATLANTA         59  72  59  78 /  20  50  20  20
BLAIRSVILLE     51  61  54  73 /  20  50  40  30
CARTERSVILLE    54  71  56  78 /  20  50  20  20
COLUMBUS        58  80  57  80 /  10  40  10  10
GAINESVILLE     55  66  56  75 /  20  50  30  20
MACON           55  76  57  81 /  10  40  20  10
ROME            54  74  56  78 /  20  50  20  30
PEACHTREE CITY  54  74  55  79 /  10  40  20  20
VIDALIA         58  78  61  83 /  10  40  20  10

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DEESE
LONG TERM....RW
AVIATION...DEESE



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