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Area Forecast Discussion

994
FXUS62 KFFC 200554
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
154 AM EDT SUN APR 20 2014

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 929 PM EDT SAT APR 19 2014/

UPDATE...

HAVE MADE SEVERAL MINOR MODIFICATIONS TO GRIDS TO ADD DETAIL TO
POPS AND END MEASURABLE PRECIP A LITTLE EARLIER FOR MOST OF THE
AREA FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. THAT SAID...DID LEAVE DRIZZLE
WORDING IN FOR SEVERAL MORE HOURS. MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO WINDS BUT
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES. FOR NOW...TEMPS DOING OKAY BUT DRIER
DEWPOINTS FILTERING IN ACROSS NORTHWEST ZONES WHERE CLOUD COVER IS
THINNING. NO ADJUSTMENTS TO OVERNIGHT LOWS YET AS IT IS STILL A
LITTLE TOO EARLY TO GET A GOOD HANDLE ON TRENDS BUT WILL BE
MONITORING. WILL SEND A ROUND OF PRODUCT UPDATES SHORTLY.

TDP

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 737 PM EDT SAT APR 19 2014/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 337 PM EDT SAT APR 19 2014/

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...

SLOW MOVING UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE EASTERN GA/FL BORDER
MAKING FOR A DIFFICULT FORECAST. THE LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OVERNIGHT TAKING SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WITH IT
THROUGH THE PERIOD. MAIN PROBLEM HAS BEEN HOW HIGH OR LOW THE
CHANCES FOR LIGHT RAIN SHOULD BE AND ALONG WITH PERIODS OF DRIZZLE
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT INTO EASTER SUNDAY. THE GOOD NEWS IS PRECIP
AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT...EXCEPT FOR A BRIEF PERIOD THIS AFTERNOON OVER
THE AREA SE OF MCN WHERE SOME MUCAPE COULD FIRE ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS. ANY THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE BRIEF AS THE CAPE IS
EXPECTED TO DIMINISH QUICKLY BY 00Z.

THE LINGERING SMALL PRECIP CHANCES TO START EASTER SUNDAY OVER THE
FAR E CENTRAL COUNTIES...ALONG WITH PERIODS OF DRIZZLE FOR MAINLY
CENTRAL GA...WILL END QUICKLY AROUND MIDDAY. THEN THE REST OF THE
FORECAST WILL BE VARYING AMOUNTS OF CLOUDS ACROSS THE AREA.

STILL SOME PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE CWA BUT ANY GUSTY WINDS
WILL SETTLE DOWN TONIGHT BUT WILL KICK UP AGAIN FOR PART OF
SUNDAY.

FORECAST LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT RUNNING NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL AND MAY BE A LITTLE TOO LOW BASED ON CURRENT DEW POINTS.
FORECAST LOW TEMPERATURES SUNDAY NIGHT RUNNING NEAR TO SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL. FORECAST HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR EASTER SUNDAY RUNNING
5-12 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WITH MCN HAVING THAT 12 DEGREE DEPARTURE
DUE TO LINGERING CLOUD COVER.

BDL

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LONG TERM BEGINS DRY AS UPPER RIDGE BUILDS BRIEFLY OVER THE STATE.
NEXT SHORT WAVE AND FRONT ON TRACK TO MOVE ACROSS THE CWA MONDAY
NIGHT AND TUESDAY...AND POPS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS STILL
LOOK OKAY. HAVE HELD ON TO SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS TUESDAY NIGHT
ACROSS CENTRAL ZONES...12Z MODELS SEEM A BIT SLOWER WITH THE
SURFACE FRONT. NEXT SHORT WAVE SET FOR FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. IN
GENERAL...NO BIG CHANGES TO THE LONG TERM. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION IS
INCLUDED BELOW.

41

PREVIOUS LONG TERM /415 AM EDT SAT APR 19 2014/...
MAIN CLOSED LOW JUST OFF THE GA/CAROLINA COAST STAYS FAIRLY
STATIONARY THROUGH SUN AND MON BEFORE WEAKENING AND PUSHING
FURTHER OUT TO SEA TUE. CLOUDS WILL DIMINISH ACROSS THE STATE SUN
NIGHT WITH PRECIP ENDING . MODELS ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT
THROUGH MOST OF THE EXTENDED WITH MINOR DIFFERENCES IN TIMING AND
AVAILABLE MOISTURE WITH NEXT SYSTEM TUE.

00Z MON...A SHORTWAVE OVER THE MIDDLE OF THE COUNTRY DEVELOPS INTO
A CLOSED LOW CENTER AND MOVES OVER THE GREAT LAKE STATES BY 00Z
TUE. ITS TRAILING COLDS FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY AND INTO NA GA BY 12Z TUE. WILL SEE SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORMS SWEEP THROUGH THE STATE TUE AND COULD SEE SOME
FAIRLY STRONG STORMS AS INSTABILITY INDICES INCREASE DURING THE
DAY TUE. THE LATEST MODEL RUNS ARE SHOWING A BIT LESS INSTABILITY
THAT PREVIOUS RUNS BUT STILL KEEPING THUNDER IN THE FORECAST.
WILL HAVE TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON THIS AS TO JUST HOW MUCH THUNDER
WE WILL SE. THIS FRONT SHOULD BE EAST OF THE STATE BY 00Z TO 06Z
WED WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING BACK IN FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK.

01

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z UPDATE...
AXIS OF NORTHERN EXTENT OF LOW CLOUDS HAS SET UP RIGHT THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF THE ATL TERMINALS THIS MORNING MAKING FOR A CHALLENGING
FORECAST. WILL GO WITH A TEMPO FOR THE FIRST 4 HOURS UNTIL MORE OF
A TREND IS ESTABLISHED AND THEN DECIDE ON PREDOMINANT VFR OR MVFR
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST. MVFR CIG MORE FIRMLY ENTRENCHED
FOR MCN AND CSG AND CARRY THIS FLIGHT CATEGORY FOR THEM THROUGH
EARLY AFTERNOON. WIND GUSTS HAVE ABATED FOR THE MOMENT AT ALL
SITES BUT COULD SEE SOME LOW END GUSTS BY MID MORNING BUT ONLY
LASTING UNTIL EARLY AFTERNOON WHEN WINDS DROP OFF AGAIN.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...06Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM ON MVFR POTENTIAL.
HIGH ON REMAINING ELEMENTS.

DEESE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          68  46  78  54 /   5   0   5  10
ATLANTA         68  52  77  57 /   5   0   5  20
BLAIRSVILLE     70  46  75  52 /   0   0   5  30
CARTERSVILLE    72  49  77  54 /   0   0   5  30
COLUMBUS        70  52  79  57 /   5   0   5  10
GAINESVILLE     67  49  74  56 /   0   0   5  30
MACON           66  48  78  55 /   5   0   5  10
ROME            73  48  78  55 /   0   0   5  30
PEACHTREE CITY  69  47  77  53 /   5   0   5  20
VIDALIA         66  53  79  56 /  10   5   5  10

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DEESE
LONG TERM....01
AVIATION...DEESE





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