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Area Forecast Discussion

348
FXUS62 KFFC 011140
AFDFFC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
740 AM EDT FRI JUL 1 2016



.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 254 AM EDT FRI JUL 1 2016/

.SHORT TERM /Today through Saturday/...
Should be a bit more quiet today convectively speaking as a rather
tight moisture and instability axis should advect more southeast
given a push from midlevel wave energy. Kept slight to low end
chance pops mainly along and south of a Columbus to Athens line.
Fcst SBCAPE values however do range from 1500-2500 J/kg in the
southern/eastern sectors...while staying near nil in the NW. Nam
thermal profiles are more bullish in the way of progging decent low
level lapse rates. Given this and some conditionally attainable
moderate instability...cannot rule out a few stronger storms perhaps
near and southeast of Macon but feel overall coverage should be
isolated and a bit weaker than yesterday. There is a possibility we
could see the far NW have to include some pops for late this
afternoon if updates are warranted given a weak wave and some hints
in the hi-res solutions of isolated convection nosing into the area
from the TN valley...just more uncertain for now so will leave dry.

Upper trough axis lifts farther NEWD off New England region by
Saturday allowing our area for return to rather stagnant environment
and overall slight chance pops for isolated shower/storm
development.

Temps today somewhat similar to yesterday generally in the low 90s
with a few pockets possibly reaching higher. Thicknesses on the
increase for Saturday with resultant max temps looking to reach
mid 90s for much of the area...possibly upper 90s in parts of
central GA.

Baker

&&

.LONG TERM /Saturday Night through Thursday/...
Models in good agreement with the long term solution. A westerly
flow coupled with a weak surface boundary/trough will continue to
allow scattered thunderstorms to develop...mainly during the
afternoon and evening hours. The better chances of thunderstorms
will be Tuesday as H5 heights fall as a weak short wave moves
across the region. The higher chances will be across north Georgia
in the vicinity of the surface boundary. The heat will increase
again toward the end of the long term as the eastern ridge builds.

17

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z Update...
INITIAL IFR/MVFR CIGS FOR MOST SITES /LIFR FOR KAHN/ SHOULD START
TO IMPROVE/SCATTER AFTER ABOUT 14Z...THEN AFTERNOON FEW/SCT CU
FIELD IN 4-5 KFT RANGE. WINDS INITIALLY SW NEAR 7 KTS OR LESS
BECOMING MORE WEST TODAY FOR KATL...NEARBY SITES...AND KCSG THEN
SW FOR KAHN AND KMCN CLOSER TO WEAK BOUNDARY. DRIER AIR SHOULD BE
PUSHING IN FROM NW...ALSO KEEPING ANY ISOLATED PRECIP CHANCES
CONFINED FARTHER SE OF TAF SITES. KMCN HAS BEST CHANCE OF ISOLATED
SHOWER/STORM THIS AFTERNOON. JUST GENERAL SLIGHT CHANCE AREA WIDE
FOR TOMORROW AFTERNOON BUT CHANCE LOOKS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE MENTION
IN TAFS FOR NOW.

//ATL Confidence...12Z Update...
MEDIUM ON EARLY MORNING CIG TREND.
HIGH ON ALL ELSE

Baker

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          93  71  96  73 /  10   5  20  20
Atlanta         92  73  94  75 /  10   5  20  20
Blairsville     88  65  87  67 /  10   5  20  30
Cartersville    93  69  93  70 /  10   5  20  20
Columbus        94  73  97  76 /  20   5  20  20
Gainesville     91  71  93  73 /  10   5  20  20
Macon           94  71  97  74 /  20  10  20  20
Rome            94  69  94  69 /  10   5  20  20
Peachtree City  93  68  95  71 /  10   5  20  20
Vidalia         91  74  94  76 /  30  20  30  20

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Baker
LONG TERM....17
AVIATION...Baker



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