National Weather Service Weather Forecast Office

Area Forecast Discussion

544
FXUS62 KFFC 190806
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
406 AM EDT WED JUN 19 2013

.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SURFACE BOUNDARY JUST SOUTH OF ATLANTA-ATHENS THIS MORNING SHOULD
SINK INTO CENTRAL GA TODAY...WITH SOME DRYING TAKING PLACE OVER THE
NORTH. ANOTHER SERIES OF SOUTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVES WILL MOVE ALONG
THIS BOUNDARY TODAY INTO THURSDAY...GIVING THE CENTRAL ZONES A
BETTER CHANCE FOR CONVECTION. THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE AT A MINIMUM
ACROSS THE NORTH...HOWEVER AN INCREASE IN CAPE AND NEGATIVE LIFTED
INDEX VALUES SUPPORT A SLIGHT CHANCE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
BETTER MOISTURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS CENTRAL GA ON THURSDAY AND HAVE
CONTINUED WITH ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE IN THE AFTERNOON FOR NORTHERN
ZONES AND CHANCE ACROSS CENTRAL. HAVE TAKEN A BLEND OF MAV/MET
TEMPERATURES WITH ONLY MINOR TWEAKS.

41

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
GUIDANCE IS IN FAIRLY DECENT CONSENSUS WITH MAIN FEATURES OF THE
LONG TERM. MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD WILL BE DOMINATED BY BROAD
UPPER RIDGING AND A 1025-MB SFC HIGH SLIDING OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC
COAST RESULTING IN HYBRID CAD SETTING UP ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. WITH LITTLE ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE
EXPECTED ACROSS THE WEDGE...MAIN IMPACT LOOKS TO BE TO LIMIT
DEVELOPMENT ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE EAST AND FOCUS MAINLY DIURNALLY
DRIVEN CONVECTION ALONG OR NEAR THE PERIPHERY OF THE WEDGE. HAVE
CONTINUED TO ADVERTISE CHANCE POPS ALONG THE SOUTHERN TIER OF THE
AREA...AND IN PORTIONS OF THE FAR NORTH FOR ANY OROGRAPHIC
ENHANCEMENT...OTHERWISE SLIGHT POPS ELSEWHERE. ENOUGH INSTABILITY
FORECAST TO MAINTAIN THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL THROUGHOUT...EVEN IF
SLIGHT CHANCE.

THERE CONTINUES TO BE DISCREPANCIES ON THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE ACROSS
THE AREA. THE GFS BRINGS A SLUG OF ENHANCED DEEP LAYER MOISTURE INTO
THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHEAST ON SATURDAY AND LINGERS ON THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK...WHILE THE ECMWF IS MUCH MORE LIMITED. HAVE DECIDED TO
KEEP POPS ON THE LOW END AND KEEP BEST CHANCES ALONG SOUTHERN TIER
AND FAR NORTH UNTIL MORE CONSENSUS IS REACHED AND CAN JUSTIFY ANY
RAISING OF POPS IN THE FUTURE. TEMPS SHOULD GENERALLY BE NEAR TO
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL WITH LITTLE CHANGE FROM DAY TO DAY THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

BAKER

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z UPDATE...
EXPECT VARIABLE CEILINGS WITH AREAS OF MVFR...AND SOME IFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. CONDITIONS IMPROVING
TO VFR AFTER 14Z. ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE OF CONVECTION TODAY SO WILL
LEAVE THUNDER OUT OF TAF SITES FOR NOW. WIND SHOULD BE VARIABLE TO
LIGHT SOUTHWEST UNTIL AROUND 14Z...EVENTUALLY GOING TO NORTHEAST
LATE THIS MORNING.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...06Z UPDATE
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ALL ELEMENTS.

41

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          85  67  87  68 /  20  20  20  10
ATLANTA         84  68  86  70 /  20  20  20  10
BLAIRSVILLE     83  60  83  64 /  20  20  20  20
CARTERSVILLE    87  65  89  68 /  20  20  20  10
COLUMBUS        86  69  89  71 /  40  30  30  20
GAINESVILLE     84  65  86  68 /  20  20  20  20
MACON           88  68  88  69 /  40  30  30  20
ROME            87  63  89  67 /  20  20  20  10
PEACHTREE CITY  85  64  87  68 /  20  20  20  10
VIDALIA         87  71  88  71 /  50  50  30  20

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...41
LONG TERM....BAKER
AVIATION...41