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Area Forecast Discussion

FXUS62 KFFC 292347 AAA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
745 PM EDT MON AUG 29 2016

A few strong tstms continued over central GA at this time moving
west to southwest at 20 mph.  The tstms will dissipate after
sunset as the airmass begins to stabilize for the night. Otherwise
...the short term forecast is on track with min temps in the
mid 60s north to low 70s central expected.


.SHORT TERM /Tonight through Tuesday Night/...
Short term period weather pattern dominated by large upper ridge
extending from the Mid Atlantic into the Tennessee Valley and
Southeastern states weakening as a weak upper level low just off the
southeast coast moves slowly westward. At the surface, weak high
pressure builds into north GA through tomorrow.  Short term models
are in agreement that better moisture flux and instability will be
in place over central and east GA in vicinity of weak low.
Instability is minimal, mainly during the afternoon and early
evening hours.  Will continue to keep POP in the slight chance to
chance category with thunder chances diminishing with the loss of
daytime heating.  Guidance temperatures look in line and have made
only minor tweaks through the period.


.LONG TERM /Wednesday through Monday/...
Only tweaks to the long term based on the latest guidance.


The long term period begins with continued at or below normal deep
layer moisture values...especially across northern portions where
PW`s will drop to around 1.30. These values along with a
noticeable absence of strong forcing or instability will keep pops
at slight chance for all of North GA through Wed.

A surface front does move into portions of North GA for Thu which
should increase mid level moisture values and along with overall
cooling of the mid levels allow for more in the way of
thunderstorm activity. Still nothing to impressive an at this
point see no reason go any higher than low end chance.

Much attention will continued to be payed to the tropics during
this time period. Early track ensemble guidance is better
clustered around a solution keeping the system well south of the
area and in fact aiding in bringing in some drier and hopefully
cooler air by the end of the week.

GFS is more aggressive in the amplitude of the trough and the
scouring out of moisture but both it and the ECMWF show some
considerably cooler nighttime conditions for North GA for the
weekend. As nice as that sounds to this forecaster...climo tells
me the around 60 for this time of year is not all that likely and
have trended temps up slightly over that of guidance.



00Z Update...
Other than a dissipating tstm near MCN at this time...VFR
conditions with an easterly flow will prevail at all of the
north and central GA TAF sites tonight and Tuesday.

//ATL Confidence...00Z Update...
High on all elements.



Athens          70  92  71  92 /  10  10  10  20
Atlanta         72  90  73  91 /  10  10  10  20
Blairsville     63  87  65  87 /  10  10  10  40
Cartersville    68  91  70  91 /  10  10   5  20
Columbus        74  92  74  93 /  20  20  10  20
Gainesville     70  89  71  90 /  10  10  10  20
Macon           72  92  72  93 /  20  30  20  20
Rome            69  93  70  92 /   5  10   5  20
Peachtree City  70  90  69  91 /  10  20  10  20
Vidalia         73  91  73  91 /  20  40  30  40




SHORT TERM...Atwell/16

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