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Area Forecast Discussion

493
FXUS62 KFFC 240711
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
311 AM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OFFSHORE THE MID ATLANTIC COAST THIS
MORNING...WHILE LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL
PORTION OF THE COUNTRY.

ONE MORE DRY DAY ON TAP FOR THE FORECAST AREA BEFORE RAIN CHANCES
INCREASE FOR MEMORIAL DAY. PREVIOUS RUNS OF THE MODELS HAVE
SUGGESTED THAT THE SEABREEZE FROM THE SOUTHEAST COAST MAY MOVE
INLAND ENOUGH TO CAUSE SOME ISOLD CONVECTION ACROSS THE VERY
SOUTHERN CWFA LATER THIS AFTERNOON. CHANCES REMAIN TOO SMALL TO
MENTION AT THIS TIME...SO WILL CONTINUE WITH THE PRECIP FREE
FORECAST.

SW FLOW ALOFT WILL ALLOW GOOD GULF MOISTURE TO INCREASE OVER THE
WESTERN HALF OF THE CWFA TOMORROW. MODELS CONTINUE TO PROG PIECES OF
SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING NORTHEAST IN THE FLOW. THE MID LEVEL ENERGY
COULD HELP INCREASE THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
DURING PEAK HEATING ON MONDAY. SINCE THESE TYPES OF SYSTEMS ARE
FAIRLY DIFFICULT TO TIME AND EVEN THE HI-RES MODELS HAVE DIFFICULTY
RESOLVING THEM THIS FAR OUT...NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO GO ANY HIGHER
THAN CHANCE POPS AT THIS TIME.

TEMPS WILL BE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TODAY WITH ABUNDANT
SUNSHINE. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT...WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY/CLOUDY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON MONDAY. THE INCREASED CLOUD COVER WILL HELP
KEEPS TEMPS SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL FOR MEMORIAL DAY. THE CLOUD COVER
WILL ALSO SERVE TO LIMIT INSTABILITY A BIT...BUT SCT TSRA ARE STILL
POSSIBLE. HOWEVER...SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

IF YOU HAVE OUTSIDE PLANS FOR MEMORIAL DAY...PLEASE CHECK THE
FORECAST BEFORE HEADING OUT. EVEN THOUGH SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT
ANTICIPATED...THUNDERSTORMS WILL CREATE A LIGHTNING HAZARD. WHEN
THUNDER ROARS...GO INDOORS!

NLISTEMAA

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SSW FLOW ALOFT WILL BE OVER THE AREA TO START THE LONG TERM
WITH SIGNIFICANT DEEPER MOISTURE. UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVES WILL
AFFECT N AND PORTIONS OF CENTRAL GA...WITH CONTINUED CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THURSDAY. SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL
HAVE SOME DIURNAL TENDENCY BUT NOT EXCLUSIVELY. DUE TO THE POSITION
OF THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WEST ATLANTIC...THE BEST CHANCES OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE OVER NORTH AND WEST GA.

A RIDGE ALOFT BUILDS SOME ON FRIDAY AND CONTINUES SATURDAY AND SHOULD
ALLOW FOR A MUCH MORE DIURNAL TENDENCY TO THE SHOWERS AND STORMS.

FOR THE MOST PART...TEMPERATURES WILL BE WITHIN 5 DEGREES OF NORMAL
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

BDL

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z UPDATE...
HAVE ADDED SOME SCT THIN CIRRUS IN THE TAF UNTIL EARLY MORNING.
MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE ACROSS MOST OF THE TERMINAL SITES...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
AHN. HAVE KEPT THE SCT MVFR DECK...BUT WILL HAVE TO MONITOR IN
CASE CLOUDS ARE MORE PREVALENT THAN EXPECTED. DIURNAL CU 4-5KFT
EXPECTED TODAY. MODELS ARE PROGGING SOME MVFR/IFR CIGS OVERNIGHT.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...06Z UPDATE...
HIGH CONFIDENCE ALL ELEMENTS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          83  63  81  66 /   5  10  40  50
ATLANTA         82  67  81  69 /   5  10  40  40
BLAIRSVILLE     77  59  76  63 /   0  10  30  50
CARTERSVILLE    83  66  81  67 /   0  10  40  40
COLUMBUS        86  69  85  68 /  10  10  50  40
GAINESVILLE     80  63  78  67 /   0  10  30  50
MACON           86  66  85  66 /  10  10  50  50
ROME            83  66  82  68 /   0  10  50  50
PEACHTREE CITY  83  66  82  67 /   5  10  50  40
VIDALIA         86  67  86  68 /  10  10  30  20

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...NLISTEMAA
LONG TERM....BDL
AVIATION...NLISTEMAA



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