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Area Forecast Discussion

059
FXUS62 KFFC 261450
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
1050 AM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

.UPDATE...
NO CHANGES PLANNED FOR THE FORECAST.

41

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 322 AM EDT SUN APR 26 2015/

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AN OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS CURRENTLY SITUATED NEAR THE GA/TN BORDER.
SEVERAL WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST ALONG THE BOUNDARY.
REGIONAL RADAR SHOWS A LINE OF SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
CLOSING IN ON THE GA/TN STATE LINE AND SINKING SOUTHWARD.
OVERALL...THE TREND HAS BEEN FOR THIS LINE OF SHOWERS TO WEAKEN.
HOWEVER...A STRONG STORM OR TWO IS POSSIBLE AND AN OCCASIONAL
LIGHTNING STRIKE IS LIKELY. EVEN SHOWERS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO
BE GUSTY WITH THE STRONG WINDS JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE.

HI-RES MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THIS LINE WEAKENING THROUGH THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS. HOWEVER...NOT CONFIDENT THE LINE WILL COMPLETELY
DIMINISH. THE HI-RES MODELS DON`T SEEM TO HAVE A GREAT HANDLE ON THE
SYSTEM. HAVE ADJUSTED POPS SLIGHTLY UPWARDS ACROSS NORTHERN GA TO
REFLECT CURRENT TRENDS.

WITH THE BOUNDARY MOVING SOUTHWARD TODAY...AM HESITANT TO REMOVE ALL
POPS. ESPECIALLY WITH THE HI-RES MODELS NOT RESOLVING THE CURRENT
SYSTEM WELL. THE BOUNDARY SHOULD CLEAR THE CWFA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING AND THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM FORECAST
SHOULD BE DRY AND SEASONABLE.

EVEN THOUGH INSTABILITY WILL BE MARGINAL...SHEAR ACROSS THE AREA
REMAINS PRETTY HIGH. EVEN THOUGH THE COVERAGE OF STORMS SHOULD BE
ISOLATED THIS AFTERNOON...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM OR EVEN A SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE.

NLISTEMAA

LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ONLY ONE WEATHER SYSTEM TO FOCUS ON IN THE EXTENDED. A SHORTWAVE
SLIDES ACROSS THE TN VALLEY MID WEEK WHILE THE SFC LOW TRACKS ALONG
THE GULF STATES AND ACROSS SOUTHERN GEORGIA. ALTHOUGH THIS WILL
BRING BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BACK TO THE CWA TUESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY...INSTABILITY WITH THE SYSTEM IS LIMITED /GENERALLY
LESS THAN 500 J/KG OF MUCAPE/ WHICH WILL RESULT IN MOSTLY SHOWERS
FOR NORTH GEORGIA AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE SHOWERS ACROSS
CENTRAL GEORGIA WHERE THIS HIGHER INSTABILITY IS LOCATED. STILL SOME
MINOR DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF IN TERMS OF FEATURES AND
TIMING...BUT BOTH ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT THE BEST CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE TUESDAY NIGHT TO WEDNESDAY TIME FRAME.
AFTER THIS SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH...HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES AT THE SFC
AND KEEPS THE CWA DRY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

11

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z UPDATE...
EARLIER SHOWERS HAVE DISSIPATED ACROSS NORTHERN GA. A COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. SOME PATCHY IFR CIGS
REMAIN THIS MORNING...BUT SHOULD BREAK BY THE LATE MORNING HOURS.
AFTER THEN...VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD. WEST WINDS WILL
GUST TO 20-25MPH TODAY. WINDS SHOULD SHIFT TO THE NW BY THE
EVENING.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...12Z UPDATE...
MED CONFIDENCE CIGS. HIGH CONFIDENCE REMAINING ELEMENTS.



&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          81  54  73  49 /  20  10   0   5
ATLANTA         80  54  72  51 /  20   5   0   5
BLAIRSVILLE     71  44  65  42 /  20  10   0   5
CARTERSVILLE    77  49  69  47 /  20   0   0   5
COLUMBUS        85  58  76  55 /  20   5   0   5
GAINESVILLE     76  52  70  49 /  20  10   0   5
MACON           85  56  75  52 /  20  10   0   5
ROME            77  49  69  47 /  20   0   0   5
PEACHTREE CITY  82  52  74  49 /  20   5   0   5
VIDALIA         86  61  75  57 /  20  10   0   5

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...41
AVIATION...41
LONG TERM...03



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