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Area Forecast Discussion

125
FXUS62 KFFC 240856
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
456 AM EDT THU JUL 24 2014


.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY ACROSS NORTH TN IS PROGGD BY MODELS TO SAG
SOUTHWARD TODAY. ALTHOUGH THE NAM IS SLIGHTLY SLOWER THAN THE GFS...
A BLEND IN TIMING WOULD PUSH THE FRONT INTO NORTH GA BY LATE THIS
MORNING... THEN ACROSS THE ATLANTA METRO AROUND LATE AFTERNOON OR
EARLY EVENING. THE NAM STALLS THE FRONT NEAR OR JUST NORTH OF
ATLANTA THIS EVENING... BUT EXPECT THE DEVELOPING MID TO UPPER NW
FLOW ALOFT TO BE SUFFICIENT TO PUSH THE FRONT SOUTH OF ATLANTA
TONIGHT AS THE GFS INDICATES. EITHER WAY...THE GREATER CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE DURING DAYTIME HEATING TODAY AS
WEAK DISTURBANCES TRAVERSE THROUGH THE UPPER TROUGH AND HELP SPARK
CONVECTION ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE SLOW MOVING FRONT. WITH SOME
UNCERTAINTY OF THE FRONTS LOCATION TONIGHT... WILL SHOW A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR ATLANTA AND AREAS SOUTHWARD
THROUGH MIDNIGHT... THEN SHIFT THIS POTENTIAL MAINLY SOUTH OF
ATLANTA AFTER MIDNIGHT. EXPECT A SLIGHTLY DRIER/COOLER AIR MASS TO
FILTER INTO NORTH GA TONIGHT AND POSSIBLY HANG AROUND ON FRIDAY...
BUT MODELS ARE HINTING AT THE FRONT DRIFTING BACK INTO NORTH GA
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL WARRANT HOLDING ONTO AT LEAST A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR AREAS FROM ATLANTA SOUTHWARD
ON FRIDAY.

ALTHOUGH CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED STRONG OR SEVERE STORM THIS
AFTERNOON WITH MODERATE CAPE VALUES IN THE 2000-2500 J/KG RANGE...
EXPECT THIS THREAT TO BE MINIMAL AS WIND SHEAR AND FRONTAL FORCING
WILL BE WEAK. SPC IS SHOWING ONLY A GENERAL THUNDER OUTLOOK FOR THE
AREA THROUGH FRIDAY... AND THIS LOOKS REASONABLE EACH DAY.
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL AMOUNTS SHOULD AVERAGE AROUND ONE HALF INCH OR
LESS... WITH SOME ISOLATED SLIGHTLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE.
THEREFORE... FLOOD PROBLEMS ARE NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

AS FOR TEMPS...CLOUDS AND PRECIP SHOULD HELP HOLD HIGHS DOWN IN THE
LOWER TO MID 80S ACROSS MAINLY NORTH GA TODAY WHILE CENTRAL GA HEATS
UP INTO THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S. EXPECTING SLIGHTLY COOLER LOWS
MOSTLY IN THE 60S FOR MUCH OF NORTH GA TONIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT. THE
COOLER TEMPS ARE SHORT-LIVED AS HIGHS CLIMB BACK INTO THE UPPER 80S
TO LOWER 90S FOR MOST AREAS ON FRIDAY. A MAV AND MET BLEND WITH SOME
TWEAKS LOOKED REASONABLE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM.

39


.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A FEW UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES TO
TRAVERSE THE REGION OVER THE WEEKEND. SURFACE HIGH SHOULD KEEP
POPS TO A MINIMUM SATURDAY...AND WITH FRONT APPROACHING THE AREA
SUNDAY...HIGH WILL LOSE CONTROL OF THE AREA AND ALLOW FOR
INCREASING RAIN CHANCES. EXTENDED PERIODS ARE STILL LARGELY
DOMINATED BY THIS STRONG COLD FRONT /ANOMALOUS FOR LATE JULY/ AND MODELS
AGREE WITH PUSHING IT THROUGH NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA BY LATE
MONDAY. DEEP LONGWAVE TROUGH REMAINS POSITIONED OVER THE AREA
THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK...KEEPING LOWER DEW POINTS AND COOLER
TEMPERATURES IN PLACE IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT. SOME MOISTURE
DOES LOOK TO CREEP BACK NORTHWARD AS BOUNDARY REMAINS OVER SOUTH
GEORGIA...AND HAVE GENERALLY INCLUDED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THE FAR
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA THROUGH WEDNESDAY. BEGINNING
TUESDAY...SHOULD SEE BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 70S NORTH AND LOW 80S ELSEWHERE...AND LOWS IN THE 60S.

STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS MAY ACCOMPANY THE FRONT AS IT PUSHES
THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY WITH MODELS CONTINUING TO ADVERTISE A
COMBINATION OF DECENT SHEAR AND INSTABILITY. WITH SOME UNCERTAINTY
IN THE FORECAST MODELS REGARDING THE TIMING OF THIS SYSTEM...THE
SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL NEED TO CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED.

31


&&

.AVIATION...
06Z UPDATE...
ALTHOUGH MAY SEE A FEW PATCHES OF SCT MVFR LEVEL CLOUDS AROUND THIS
MORNING...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL UNTIL MAYBE MID MORNING
WHEN DAYTIME HEATING AND AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT MOVING INTO NORTH
GA COMBINE TO INCREASE AT LEAST MID LEVEL CLOUDS OVER MOST OF THE
TAF SITES. AHEAD OF THE FRONT..EXPECT NUMEROUS SHOWERS WITH
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP... WARRANTING VCSH BY 17Z AT ATL
AND A PROB30 -TSRA FROM 18-24Z FOR NOW. THE FRONT SHOULD PUSH SOUTH
OF ATL BY 23Z TODAY WITH ANY ASSOCIATED MID LEVEL CIGS SCATTERING.
LIGHT WSW WINDS WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 8-10KTS WITH A FEW GUSTS
AFTER 14Z TODAY. EXPECT NW WINDS 5KTS OR LESS AND VFR CONDITIONS
TONIGHT.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...06Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE ALL ELEMENTS.

39

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          90  69  89  69 /  60  30  20  10
ATLANTA         87  70  88  72 /  60  30  20   5
BLAIRSVILLE     82  61  83  61 /  60  20  10   5
CARTERSVILLE    87  68  88  68 /  60  20  10   5
COLUMBUS        89  73  90  74 /  60  30  30  10
GAINESVILLE     86  69  87  69 /  60  20  10   5
MACON           90  71  92  72 /  60  30  30  10
ROME            86  68  88  67 /  60  20  10   5
PEACHTREE CITY  88  69  88  69 /  60  30  20  10
VIDALIA         92  73  92  74 /  40  40  40  20

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...39
LONG TERM....31
AVIATION...39






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