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Area Forecast Discussion

116
FXUS62 KFFC 240520
AFDFFC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
120 AM EDT TUE MAY 24 2016



.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued /

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 316 PM EDT MON MAY 23 2016/

SHORT TERM /Tonight through Tuesday Night/...
Closed upper low over the mid Atlantic should drift slowly up the
east coast during the short term. This should keep us in a dry
northwest flow through the period. A 500mb short wave moving from
the mid MS valley into the OH valley Tuesday and Tuesday night
could spread some cloudiness into the forecast area. MAV/MET
temperatures look okay except favored the cool side of guidance
overnight tonight.

41

LONG TERM /Wednesday through Monday/...
FEW MINOR DISCREPANCIES WITH MODEL GUIDANCE FOR EXTENT OF MOISTURE
AND ANY WEAK DISTURBANCES MAINLY INFLUENCING THE FAR NORTH PORTION
OF THE AREA. STILL NOT ENOUGH JUSTIFICATION TO ADVERTISE MORE THAN
SLIGHT TO LOW END CHANCE POPS SIMILAR TO BEFORE SO HAVE ONLY MADE
SLIGHT TWEAKS TO FCST. THE GFS HAS SOME RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY ON
SOME FORM OF A TROPICAL LOW IMPINGING ON THE SOUTHEAST BY NEXT
WEEKEND THOUGH UNCERTAINTY IS HIGH THIS FAR OUT AND WILL WAIT FOR
BETTER CONSENSUS BEFORE RAISING ANY POPS. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
FOLLOWS...

Baker

PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 340 AM EDT MON MAY 23 2016/

LONG TERM /Tuesday Night through Sunday/...

Once again...no real changes to the general extended forecast
trends with this cycle. Models still show the region transitioning
from a northwesterly upper flow pattern into weak upper ridging mid-
week and eventually weak southwesterly upper flow late in the week
into early next week. Relatively good agreement between the models
as well into the weekend before the solutions begin to diverge into
next week. But the gist remains that we are not looking at any well
defined surface or upper-level focusing mechanisms for organized or
sustained deep convection through the period. Moisture return begins
creeping into the north and west by Wednesday as the surface ridge
axis shifts east of the state but better moisture remains west of
the region through the bulk of the period. Still looks like we see a
gradient of low to medium chance POPs across the north to slight
chance at best across the south...with a decidedly diurnal bent as
well. Precipitable water values are not even forecast to rise above
1 inch until the latter half of the week and remain below 1.5 inches
through the majority of the period. Instability as well not forecast
to rise above the marginal to moderate range.

20

Fire Weather...
PRIMARILY DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH WEDNESDAY. WINDS
SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO STAY BELOW CRITICAL LEVELS. RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES TUESDAY AFTERNOON ARE EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE
LOW 30/UPPER 20 PERCENT RANGE ACROSS A LARGE PORTION OF THE
AREA...THEN SLIGHTLY HIGHER FOR WEDNESDAY. ALTHOUGH NO FIRE DANGER
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME...RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES
WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED FOR ANY CHANGES.

AVIATION...
18Z Update...
VFR conditions expected through the period. Diurnal
cu possible this afternoon but should dissipate by sunset. Winds
should be mostly north northwest but could briefly switch to
just east of north this afternoon. Expect a few gusts 15 to 20kt.
Winds diminishing by sunset going light and variable. Expect
winds on southwest side by Tuesday morning.

//ATL Confidence...18Z Update...
High confidence all elements except winds. Low to med confidence
on wind direction after 00Z Tue.

41

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z Update...
VFR conditions expected for the entire TAF period. Some altocu
showing up on the IR imagery this morning. Expect diurnal cu to
develop this afternoon. Main forecast issue will be the winds.
Speeds will be very light overnight...and wind direction may
switch over to the east/northeast for a few hours. However, when
mixing starts up during the mid/late morning the flow is expected
to go back to the west side.

//ATL Confidence...06Z Update...
high confidence all elements.



&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          86  61  89  64 /   0   0   5   5
Atlanta         84  63  87  67 /   0   0   5   5
Blairsville     81  57  83  59 /   0   0  10   5
Cartersville    85  59  88  64 /   0   0  10   5
Columbus        87  63  89  67 /   0   0   5   5
Gainesville     83  61  86  65 /   0   0  10   5
Macon           87  62  89  65 /   0   0   5   5
Rome            86  59  88  63 /   0   0  10   5
Peachtree City  85  60  87  63 /   0   0   5   5
Vidalia         87  64  89  66 /   0   0   5   0

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$



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