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Area Forecast Discussion

676
FXUS62 KFFC 311421 AAB
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
1021 AM EDT FRI OCT 31 2014

.UPDATE...

HAVE MADE SOME MINOR TWEAKS TO THE FORECAST THIS MORNING. STILL
APPEARS TO BE THE POTENTIAL FOR SNOW TONIGHT ACROSS NORTH GEORGIA
AND HAVE TWEAKED THE SNOW AMOUNT GRIDS UPWARD SLIGHTLY COMPARED TO
YESTERDAY BUT THESE UPWARD ADJUSTMENTS WERE MAINLY CONFINED TO THE
HIGHER MOUNTAIN ELEVATIONS. IN THE FAR NORTHEAST...THE SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS CURRENTLY FORECAST ARE AROUND AN INCH AND ONCE THE 12Z
GUIDANCE IS RECEIVED...WE WILL EVALUATE ANY NEED FOR WINTER
WEATHER PRODUCTS.

OTHERWISE FOR THIS AFTERNOON...EXPECT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS ACROSS NORTH GEORGIA.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...


SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
/ISSUED 508 AM EDT FRI OCT 31 2014/
A LOT GOING ON IN THE SHORT TERM FORECAST AND POSSIBLY OUR FIRST
ENCOUNTER WITH WINTRY PRECIPITATION. MAIN FORECAST CONCERN WILL BE
AN UNSEASONABLY POTENT UPPER TROUGH EXPECTED TO QUICKLY DIG
SOUTHWARD AND CUTOFF ACROSS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS TONIGHT INTO
SATURDAY. THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE SHORT TERM WITH
THIS SYSTEM SHOWING MOISTURE CLIPPING NE GA BEGINNING TONIGHT AS
THIS NEXT SYSTEM DEVELOPS. BASED ON LOW TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE AND
PROGGED OMEGA...RAIN CHANCES WILL BEGIN ACROSS NORTH GA FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. COULD SEE A BIT OF A BREAK IN THE PRECIP FRIDAY EVENING
AS THERE IS A SMALL WINDOW FOR THE DRY SLOT TO MOVE IN ACROSS THE
STATE BETWEEN 00Z AND 06Z SAT. THE BACK SIDE MOISTURE BEGINS TO WRAP
AROUND THE EXITING LOW CENTER EARLY PUSHING INTO NE GA BETWEEN
06Z-12Z SAT. AS THIS WRAP AROUND MOISTURE MOVES IN A COLD AIRMASS IS
ALSO BEING ADVECTED SOUTHWARD AND COULD SEE TEMPS DIP BELOW THE
FREEZING MARK FOR THE FIRST TIME THIS SEASON. WITH THE COLD AIRMASS
AND MOISTURE OVER NORTH GA WE MAY ALE SEE OUR FIRST SNOW FALL OF THE
SEASON AS WELL. HAVE PUT IN A MENTION OF SNOW FOR NE GA BUT NOT
EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF ACCUMULATIONS. THERMAL PROFILES NEAR
BRASSTOWN BALD ARE DEFINITELY COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW AND SHOW SOME
DECENT LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES MAINLY AFTER 03-06Z SATURDAY. FORECAST
850MB TEMPS EVEN GET AS LOW AS -8 C BASED ON THE GFS FOR 12Z
SATURDAY. AMOUNTS ARE NOT VERY CLEAR THOUGH THE MAJORITY OF MODEL
SOLUTIONS POINT AT GENERALLY IN THE 0.20-0.50 INCH RANGE FOR THE FAR
NORTHEAST. GIVEN THE TEMPS...THE LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS MAY STICK TO
GRASSY AREAS AND ELEVATED SURFACES...THOUGH MAY STRUGGLE TO STICK TO
ROADWAYS GIVEN SOME HIGHER SOIL TEMPS. STILL SOME LINGERING LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE COUPLED WITH GOOD VORTICITY SO CANNOT RULE OUT SOME
LINGERING FLURRIES EVEN SATURDAY AFTERNOON IN THE NORTHEAST AS WELL.
GRADIENT WINDS WILL BE QUITE STRONG SATURDAY AS WELL AND WILL MOST
LIKELY REACH WIND ADVISORY LEVELS.

01

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
/ISSUED 508 AM EDT FRI OCT 31 2014/
DEEP UPPER TROUGH MOVING OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST AT THE START OF
THE PERIOD. STRONG COLD ADVECTION CONTINUES AND SATURDAY NIGHT
LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 30S ACROSS THE REGION...WITH 20S IN
THE NORTHEAST. PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA.
UPPER RIDGE GRADUALLY BUILDING EASTWARD INTO THE FIRST OF THE WEEK
WITH SOME TEMPERATURE MODIFICATION. NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOULD BE
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AS SOUTHWEST FLOW BRINGS AN INCREASE IN
MOISTURE ACROSS THE STATE. MODELS ARE SHOWING SOME DIFFERENCES IN
TIMING OF THIS NEXT FRONT...HOWEVER LOW POPS LOOK REASONABLE FOR
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.

41

AVIATION...
12Z UPDATE...
/ISSUED 725 AM EDT FRI OCT 31 2014/
VFR CONDITIONS TO START THE TAF PERIOD BUT THINGS ARE STILL
EXPECTED TO CHANGE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. WINDS WILL STAY OUT OF
THE NW THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD BUT WINDS SPEEDS WILL INCREASE
THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. WINDS ARE CURRENTLY 10KT OR LESS BUT
WILL SEE SPEEDS INCREASE TO 20KT GUSTING TO 30KT BY 10Z-12Z SAT.
CLOUDS ALSO INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA WITH SCT TO BKN CLOUDS 8000FT
TO 12000FT EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON. CEILINGS WILL LOWER THROUGH
TONIGHT WITH BKN025 EXPECTED BY 01Z AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIP
IN THE ATL AREA TAF SITES. CEILINGS SHOULD LIFT A BIT THROUGH SAT
MORNING WITH BKN035 EXPECTED BY 12Z AND SCT050 EXPECTED BY 16Z.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...12Z UPDATE...
HIGH CONFIDENCE ON WINDS AND WIND SPEEDS.
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ON CEILINGS...VSBYS...AND PRECIP.

01

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          67  37  53  35 /  20  30  20   0
ATLANTA         66  35  51  36 /  20  20   5   0
BLAIRSVILLE     57  30  44  29 /  40  40  40   0
CARTERSVILLE    64  35  50  33 /  30  30  10   0
COLUMBUS        71  39  56  39 /   5   5   0   0
GAINESVILLE     62  36  49  35 /  30  30  20   0
MACON           71  39  56  37 /   5   5   5   0
ROME            64  34  50  34 /  30  30  10   0
PEACHTREE CITY  67  36  53  35 /  10  20   5   0
VIDALIA         74  40  56  40 /   5   5   5   0

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 11 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: CATOOSA...CHATTOOGA...DADE...DAWSON...FANNIN...GILMER...
GORDON...LUMPKIN...MURRAY...PICKENS...TOWNS...UNION...WALKER...
WHITE...WHITFIELD.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM....TDP
AVIATION...11





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