"Information obtained through March 2005 indicates that the 2005 Atlantic hurricane season will be an active one. We estimate that 2005 will have about 7 hurricanes (average is 5.9), 13 named storms (average is 9.6), 65 named storm days (average is 49), 35 hurricane days (average is 24.5), 3 intense (category 3-4-5) hurricanes (average is 2.3) and 7 intense hurricane days (average is 5.0). We expect Atlantic basin Net Tropical Cyclone (NTC) activity in 2005 to be about 135 percent of the long-term average. The probability of U.S. major hurricane landfall is estimated to be 140 percent of the long-period average. We expect this year to continue the past-decade trend of above-average hurricane seasons".

PROBABILITIES FOR AT LEAST ONE MAJOR (CATEGORY 3-4-5) HURRICANE LANDFALL ON EACH OF THE FOLLOWING COASTAL AREAS:

• Entire U.S. coastline - 73% (average for last century is 52%)
• U.S. East Coast Including the Florida Peninsula - 53% (average for last century is 31%)
• Gulf Coast from the Florida Panhandle westward to Brownsville - 41% (average for last century is 30%)
• Expected above-average major hurricane landfall risk in the Caribbean

Relevant Web Sites

Dr Gray's complete forecast

Colorado State's Tropical Meteorology Project

NWS Peachtree City GA Tropical Weather page