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"Hurricane Season" is June 1 to November 30 Tropical Weather Flag

UPDATED FORECAST OF ATLANTIC SEASONAL HURRICANE UPDATED FORECAST OF ATLANTIC SEASONAL HURRICANE ACTIVITY AND US LANDFALL STRIKE PROBABILITIES FOR 2002

A continued upturn of the recent six (1995-96-98-99-00-01) busy hurricane seasons is expected.
Above average probability of US landfall is forecast.

This forecast is based on ongoing research by the authors along with meteorological
information through March 2002

(forecast issued 5 April 2002)

By
William M. Gray1, Christopher W. Landsea2, Eric Blake3,and Philip Klotzbach4

with advice and assistance from William Thorson5 and Jason Connor6

1 Professor of Atmospheric Science 2 Meteorologist with NOAA/TPC, National Hurricane Center, Miami, FL; former project member 3 Meteorologist with NOAA/TPC, National Hurricane Center, Miami, FL; former project member 4 Graduate Student, Dept. of Atmospheric Science 5 Research Associate 6 Research Associate

[Brad Bohlander and Thomas Milligan, Colorado State University, Media Representatives are available to answer various questions about this forecast (970-491-6432). ]

Department of Atmospheric Science
Colorado State University
Fort Collins, CO 80523
Phone Number: 970-491-8681

2002 ATLANTIC BASIN SEASONAL HURRICANE FORECAST



Tropical Cyclone Parameters Updated
and 1950-2000 Climatology 7 December 2001 5 April 2002
(in parentheses) Forecast for 2002 Forecast
Named Storms (NS) (9.6) 13 12
Named Storm Days (NSD) (49.1) 70 65
Hurricanes (H)(5.9) 8 7
Hurricane Days (HD)(24.5) 35 30
Intense Hurricanes (IH) (2.3) 4 3
Intense Hurricane Days (IHD)(5.0) 7 6
Hurricane Destruction Potential (HDP) (72.7) 90 85
Net Tropical Cyclone Activity (NTC)(100%) 140 125


PROBABILITIES FOR AT LEAST ONE OR MORE MAJOR (CATEGORY 3-4-5) HURRICANE LANDFALL ON EACH OF THE FOLLOWING COASTAL AREAS:

1) Entire U.S. coastline - 75% (average for last century is 52%)

2) U.S. East Coast Including Peninsula Florida - 57% (average for last century is 31%)

3) Gulf Coast from the Florida Panhandle westward to Brownsville - 43% (average for last century is 30%)

4) Expected above-average major hurricane landfall risk in the Caribbean


  • Get the complete text of Dr Gray's extensively detailed and informative article...



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