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HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK FOR NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
900 AM EST FRI MAR 4 2011

...SPRING FLOOD OUTLOOK FOR NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA...

FOR THE SPRING OF 2011...THE SOUTHEAST RIVER FORECAST CENTER IS
CALLING FOR BELOW NORMAL FLOODING POTENTIAL FOR NORTH AND CENTRAL
GEORGIA. IT IS IMPORTANT TO NOTE THAT A BELOW NORMAL POTENTIAL FOR
FLOODING MEANS DURING THIS TYPICAL PEAK FLOOD PERIOD...SOME FLOODING
MAY OCCUR....BUT IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE TO THE EXTENT OF A TYPICAL
SPRING SEASON.

...EXISTING CONDITIONS...

SOIL MOISTURE...UPPER AND LOWER SOIL MOISTURE CONDITIONS ARE ONLY
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL FOR MUCH OF NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA DUE TO
RECENT WEATHER SYSTEMS PRODUCING RAINFALL ACROSS THIS AREA.

AVERAGE DAILY STREAM FLOWS FOR THE PAST 30 DAYS HAVE BEEN RUNNING
BELOW NORMAL IN NORTH GEORGIA AND NEAR NORMAL IN CENTRAL GEORGIA. 
OCCASIONAL VARIANCES HAVE OCCURRED DUE TO PERIODIC RAINFALL AND
AREAS OF MINOR FLOODING...BUT OTHERWISE CONDITIONS HAVE BEEN AT OR
BELOW NORMAL FOR THE DECEMBER THROUGH FEBRUARY TIME PERIOD.

CLIMATE REGIME...A MODERATELY STRONG LA NINA PATTERN HAS PERSISTED
THROUGH THE FALL AND WINTER MONTHS. THIS PATTERN HAS CONTRIBUTED TO
A STORM TRACK THAT HAS BROUGHT ONLY OCCASIONAL PRECIPITATION OVER
NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA.

RAINFALL...DURING THE PAST 90 DAYS BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION HAS
PREVAILED OVER MOST OF NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA. THIS AREA WAS
GENERALLY 50 TO 80 PERCENT OF NORMAL WITH RAINFALL TOTALS OF 5 TO 11
INCHES. ISOLATED MINOR RIVER FLOODING OCCURRED IN NORTH GEORGIA IN
DECEMBER AND NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA IN FEBRUARY.

RESERVOIR CONSIDERATIONS...POOL LEVELS OF MOST MAJOR RESERVOIRS IN
NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA ARE RUNNING NEAR OR JUST ABOVE TARGET
LEVELS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. IT IS DURING THIS TIME THAT MANY
OPERATORS PLAN TO FILL THEIR RESERVOIRS TO SUMMER POOL LEVELS.
NORMAL RAINFALL SHOULD TAKE CARE OF THAT SITUATION.

METEOROLOGICAL OUTLOOK...THE SOUTHEAST U.S. WEATHER MOVES INTO A
MORE TRANSITIONAL ENVIRONMENT IN THE SPRING WITH INCREASING CHANCES
OF HEAVY RAIN. MARCH IS TYPICALLY THE MONTH OF GREATEST RAINFALL
ACROSS GEORGIA. THE FORECAST FOR MARCH IS FOR NEAR NORMAL RAINFALL
OVER NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA WITH BELOW NORMAL RAINFALL EXPECTED
IN APRIL AND MAY. THE LA NINA WEATHER PATTERN WHICH HAS AFFECTED
GEORGIA THIS PAST FALL AND WINTER WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH TO A 
NEUTRAL PATTERN BY THIS SUMMER.

...SPRING FLOOD OUTLOOK...

CONSIDERING THE RAINFALL EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 90 DAYS AND THE
PRE-EXISTING SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL SOIL CONDITIONS...THE OUTLOOK IS
FOR A BELOW NORMAL CHANCE OF FLOODING THIS SPRING IN NORTH AND
CENTRAL GEORGIA.

&&

FOR DETAILED WEB INFORMATION CONCERNING RIVER STAGES AND FORECASTS
FOR NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA...GO TO:

         WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/FFC

AND UNDER CURRENT CONDITIONS...CLICK ON "RIVERS & LAKES".

FOR PRECIPITATION ANALYSIS...GO TO:

         WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/SERFC/QPFVSMAP.SHTML

FOR FORECAST PRECIPITATION...GO TO:

         WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/SERFC/QPFPAGE.HTML
 
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