HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK FOR NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA...CORRECTION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
300 PM EST FRI MAR 7 2008

...SPRING FLOOD OUTLOOK FOR NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA...

FOR THE SPRING OF 2008 THE SOUTHEAST RIVER FORECAST CENTER IS
CALLING FOR WELL BELOW NORMAL FLOODING POTENTIAL FOR NORTH AND
CENTRAL GEORGIA.

...EXISTING CONDITIONS...

SOIL MOISTURE...UPPER SOIL MOISTURE CONDITIONS ARE NEAR NORMAL FOR
MUCH OF NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA DUE TO RECENT WEATHER SYSTEMS
PRODUCING RAINFALL ACROSS THIS AREA. HOWEVER...THE ONGOING TWO YEAR
DROUGHT HAS CAUSED THE SUBSURFACE SOIL MOISTURE TO BE WELL BELOW
NORMAL.

AVERAGE DAILY STREAM FLOWS ARE RUNNING BELOW NORMAL.  OCCASIONAL
VARIANCES HAVE OCCURRED DUE TO PERIODIC RAINFALL...BUT OTHERWISE
CONDITIONS HAVE BEEN AT OR BELOW NORMAL FOR THE DECEMBER THROUGH
FEBRUARY TIME PERIOD.

CLIMATE REGIME...A STRONG LA NINA PATTERN HAS PERSISTED THROUGH THE
WINTER MONTHS.  THIS PATTERN TYPICALLY RESULTS IN BELOW NORMAL
PRECIPITATION OVER MOST OF GEORGIA.

DROUGHT MONITOR...EXTREME TO EXCEPTIONAL DROUGHT CONDITIONS HAVE
PREVAILED OVER NORTH AND WEST GEORGIA THROUGH THE WINTER AND MOST
OF 2007.

RAINFALL...DURING THE PAST 90 DAYS BELOW NORMAL RAINFALL HAS
PREVAILED OVER MOST OF NORTH GEORGIA. THIS AREA WAS GENERALLY 50 TO
NEAR 100 PERCENT OF NORMAL WITH RAINFALL TOTALS OF 8 TO 15 INCHES.
ABOVE NORMAL RAINFALL HAS PREVAILED OVER CENTRAL GEORGIA WITH 100 TO
200 PERCENT OF NORMAL AND RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 12 TO 20 INCHES.
NO FLASH FLOODING OR RIVER FLOODING OCCURRED...BUT THERE HAS BEEN
WIDESPREAD RAPID RISES ON STREAMS...CREEKS AND SMALLER RIVERS TO
AROUND BANKFULL.

RESERVOIR CONSIDERATIONS...POOL LEVELS OF MOST MAJOR RESERVOIRS IN
NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA ARE RUNNING NEAR TARGET LEVELS FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR EXCEPT FOR LAKE LANIER AND CARTERS LAKE. IT IS DURING
THIS TIME THAT MANY OPERATORS PLAN TO FILL THEIR RESERVOIRS TO
SUMMER POOL LEVELS. NORMAL RAINFALL SHOULD TAKE CARE OF THAT
SITUATION.  HOWEVER...ABOVE NORMAL RAINFALL WOULD BE NEEDED FOR LAKE
LANIER AND CARTERS LAKE TO FULLY RECHARGE.

METEOROLOGICAL OUTLOOK...THE SOUTHEAST U.S. WEATHER MOVES INTO A
MORE TRANSITIONAL ENVIRONMENT BETWEEN SPRING AND SUMMER AND THE
CHANCES OF RAIN INCREASE. THE LA NINA WEATHER PATTERN PEAKED IN
JANUARY AND WILL GRADUALLY TRANSITION TO A NEUTRAL PATTERN BY THIS
SUMMER OR FALL.  HOWEVER...THIS SHOULD NOT AFFECT THE SPRING FLOOD
SEASON IN GEORGIA.  MARCH IS TYPICALLY THE MONTH OF GREATEST
RAINFALL ACROSS GEORGIA.  THE FORECAST FOR THE REST OF THE MONTH IS
FOR NEAR NORMAL RAINFALL OVER NORTH GEORGIA AND BELOW NORMAL FOR
CENTRAL GEORGIA.

...SPRING FLOOD OUTLOOK...

CONSIDERING BELOW NORMAL RAINFALL EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 90 DAYS...
THE OUTLOOK LEANS TOWARD A BELOW NORMAL CHANCE OF FLOODING THIS
SPRING IN NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA. FURTHERMORE...ONCE THE SPRING
GREEN UP OCCURS...FROM MID MARCH INTO MAY...THE CHANCES FOR RUNOFF
AND SUBSEQUENT FLOODING WILL BE SIGNIFICANTLY REDUCED.

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