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HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK FOR NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
1120 AM EST FRI MAR 13 2009

...SPRING FLOOD OUTLOOK FOR NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA...

FOR THE SPRING OF 2009 THE SOUTHEAST RIVER FORECAST CENTER IS
CALLING FOR NEAR NORMAL FLOODING POTENTIAL FOR NORTH AND CENTRAL
GEORGIA.

...EXISTING CONDITIONS...

SOIL MOISTURE...UPPER SOIL MOISTURE CONDITIONS ARE ABNORMALLY
MOIST FOR MUCH OF NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA DUE TO RECENT WEATHER
SYSTEMS PRODUCING RAINFALL ACROSS THIS AREA. HOWEVER...THE ONGOING
THREE YEAR DROUGHT HAS CAUSED THE SUBSURFACE SOIL MOISTURE TO BE
BELOW NORMAL...ESPECIALLY IN NORTHEAST GEORGIA.

AVERAGE DAILY STREAM FLOWS ARE RUNNING BELOW NORMAL IN NORTH
GEORGIA AND NEAR NORMAL IN CENTRAL GEORGIA.  OCCASIONAL VARIANCES
HAVE OCCURRED DUE TO PERIODIC RAINFALL AND AREAS OF MINOR FLOODING
...BUT OTHERWISE CONDITIONS HAVE BEEN AT OR BELOW NORMAL FOR THE
DECEMBER THROUGH FEBRUARY TIME PERIOD.

CLIMATE REGIME...A MILD LA NINA PATTERN HAS PERSISTED THROUGH THE
WINTER MONTHS.  THIS PATTERN HAS CONTRIBUTED TO A STORM TRACK THAT
HAS BROUGHT WELCOMED RAIN...BUT STILL PRIMARILY BELOW NORMAL
PRECIPITATION OVER MOST OF GEORGIA.

DROUGHT MONITOR...SEVERE TO EXTREME DROUGHT CONDITIONS HAVE
PREVAILED OVER NORTHEAST GEORGIA THROUGH THE WINTER AND MOST OF
NORTH GEORGIA IN 2008.

RAINFALL...DURING THE PAST 90 DAYS BELOW NORMAL RAINFALL HAS
PREVAILED OVER MOST OF NORTH GEORGIA. THIS AREA WAS GENERALLY 70 TO
100 PERCENT OF NORMAL WITH RAINFALL TOTALS OF 8 TO 15 INCHES.  BELOW
NORMAL RAINFALL HAS PREVAILED OVER CENTRAL GEORGIA WITH 30 TO 70
PERCENT OF NORMAL AND RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 8 INCHES. ISOLATED
FLASH FLOODING AND MINOR TO OCCASIONAL MODERATE RIVER FLOODING
OCCURRED IN NORTHWEST GEORGIA IN DECEMBER AND JANUARY. OCCASIONAL
MINOR RIVER FLOODING HAS OCCURRED IN CENTRAL GEORGIA...PRIMARILY DUE
TO ROUTED WATER FROM NORTH GEORGIA.

RESERVOIR CONSIDERATIONS...POOL LEVELS OF MOST MAJOR RESERVOIRS IN
NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA ARE RUNNING NEAR OR ABOVE TARGET LEVELS
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR EXCEPT FOR LAKE LANIER. IT IS DURING THIS
TIME THAT MANY OPERATORS PLAN TO FILL THEIR RESERVOIRS TO SUMMER
POOL LEVELS. NORMAL RAINFALL SHOULD TAKE CARE OF THAT SITUATION.
HOWEVER...SINCE LAKE LANIER IS NEAR 12 FEET BELOW NORMAL...WELL
ABOVE NORMAL RAINFALL WOULD BE NEEDED FOR THIS LARGE LAKE TO FULLY
RECHARGE.

METEOROLOGICAL OUTLOOK...THE SOUTHEAST U.S. WEATHER MOVES INTO A
MORE TRANSITIONAL ENVIRONMENT BETWEEN SPRING AND SUMMER AND THE
CHANCES OF RAIN INCREASE. THE MILD LA NINA WEATHER PATTERN WILL
GRADUALLY TRANSITION TO A NEUTRAL PATTERN BY THIS SUMMER.  MARCH
IS TYPICALLY THE MONTH OF GREATEST RAINFALL ACROSS GEORGIA.
HOWEVER...THE FORECAST FOR THE REST OF THE MONTH IS FOR SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL RAINFALL OVER NORTH GEORGIA AND BELOW NORMAL FOR
CENTRAL GEORGIA.

...SPRING FLOOD OUTLOOK...

CONSIDERING THE RAINFALL EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 90 DAYS...THE OUTLOOK
LEANS TOWARD A NEAR NORMAL CHANCE OF FLOODING THIS SPRING IN NORTH
AND CENTRAL GEORGIA. WHILE BELOW NORMAL RAINFALL IS ANTICIPATED...
THE PAST 90 DAYS HAS SHOWN A TREND OF INFREQUENT BUT HEAVY RAIN
EVENTS WHICH CAUSE ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING AND OCCASIONAL MINOR
RIVER FLOODING.

&&

FOR DETAILED WEB INFORMATION CONCERNING RIVER STAGES AND FORECASTS
FOR NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA...GO TO:

         WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/FFC

AND CLICK ON "RIVERS & LAKES AHPS".

FOR PRECIPITATION ANALYSIS...GO TO:

         WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/SERFC/QPFVSMAP.SHTML

FOR FORECAST PRECIPITATION...GO TO:

         WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/SERFC/QPFPAGE.HTML

$$

 

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