September 2006 was more like a normal September, with increased shower
activity and moderated temperatures, especially after August 2006, the warmest All
Time Month and August for San Antonio; the warmest August for Austin; 9th
warmest August for Austin Bergstrom and 16th warmest for Del Rio.
September 2006 at San Antonio was the first time that the average
monthly rainfall has been above normal since March 2005.
September 2006 Summary
|
Location
|
Average Temp
|
Average Hi
|
Average Lo
|
Warmest/Coolest
|
Rainfall
|
|
Austin Mabry
|
80.2 +0.7
|
91.7
|
68.7
|
101 on 1st
57 on 20th
|
3.00 +0.09
|
|
Austin Bergstrom
|
78.7 -0.8
|
91.8
|
65.5
|
102 on 1st
54 on 20th & 26th
|
1.72 -1.16
|
|
Del Rio
|
80.0 +0.0
|
90.2
|
69.8
|
99 on 2nd & 23rd
61 on 7th & 25th
|
2.38 +0.32
|
|
San Antonio
|
79.7 +0.3
|
90.6
|
68.8
|
100 on 1st
57 on 20th
|
4.11 +1.11
|
The warmest day on the 1st had many highs around 100. Conditions
moderated Labor Day weekend and to the following week of September 4th to
9th. A cool front the 10th brought a few slightly cooler nights, then by the
end of the week of September 11 to 16th, it warmed up to between 95 and 100
in the afternoons. Rains came the weekend of the 16th and 17th, followed by
moderated temperatures the 18th to 20th. Warm and very humid conditions
returned the 22nd to the 23rd, followed by rains the weekend of the 23rd and 24th.
Another cool front brought moderated daily temperatures and drier conditions
the 24th to the 26th. The coolest lows for the month came in the early
morning of the 20th, the 25th, and the 26th.
Warm and more summer like days ended the month the 29th and 30th, with highs near 90 to the low 90s.
The Climate Prediction Center on Wednesday, September 13th officially
announced that we are currently in El Nino conditions in the
Tropical Pacific.
See El Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO)
Diagnostic Discussion issued by the
Climate Prediction Center/NCEP.
This phenomena is a
chapter to a bigger Global Scale topic of Air and Sea Interaction
and how Tropical Precipitation patterns across the World shape
and influence worldwide wind patterns, especially in the late fall
and winter to early Spring. With the presence
of El Nino, the active wintertime jet stream is displaced
further south over the Southern U.S. This pattern favors
the development of more active weather systems passing across the
Southern U.S..
The climate prediction center is forecasting that the current
El Nino will continue through the early part of 2007. The
extended outlooks for South Central Texas for October 2006 to
next February 2007 show around a 40 percent likelihood of rainfall
above normal; a 33.33 percent chance of rainfall near normal;
and a 26.67 percent chance of rainfall below normal. The outlook from
February to April and beyond shows Equal Chances of rainfall Above, Near, or
Below Normal. To see a list of the 3 month outlooks for rainfall issued by the
Climate Prediction Center on September 21st, 2006, Click Here
to See 3 Month Outlooks for Rainfall. The average temperature outlook is
looking for Equal Chances of above normal, near normal, and below normal average
temperature for October to February.
To See All Outlooks for rainfall and temperature from the
Climate Prediction Center
Click Here to See All Outlooks.
The Climate Prediction Center is currently downscaling 3
Month Outlooks for the average temperature over a 3 Month Time
Span for 10 sites across South Central Texas.
Click Here to see Downscaled 3 Month Temperature Outlooks for South Central Texas.
Note: All Outlooks reference the 1971 to 2000 Normal's.
Even though El Nino exists in the Tropical Pacific and its affects are
greatest from December to April, not all El Nino events are the same.
On average during El Nino events from 1950 to 2005, better chances of rain,
showers, and thunderstorms came to South Central Texas in the Late Fall to
Winter and Early Spring.
Rainfall has varied from one El Nino Event to another from 1950 to 2005
for South Central Texas. There is other
Global Phenomina at work that eventually shape the characteristics of
a Fall to Winter to Early Spring Pattern, and El Nino is one factor of
many. In some years El Nino plays a bigger role, while in others a
smaller role. In some El Nino years, like 1976-77 and 1977-78, winters
were very cold, as cloudiness lingered, while cold frontsal passages
were strong and frequent. In other El Nino's, winter was milder, like
the stormy and wet period from December 1997 to March 1998.
When averaging the results of El Nino Events from 1950 to 2005, rainfall was enhanced.
The average 3 month temperature from Late Fall to Early Spring was
slightly below normal, from an average of 1950 to 2005 El Nino Events.
The graphs below depict the average rainfall and temperature during El Nino
Events for 3 month time periods, from October to December, OND;
November to January, NDJ; December to February, DJF;
January to March, JFM; February to April, FMA; and March to May, MAM.
An additional graph for rainfall is provided for
April to June, AMJ.
Click Here to See Graphs of Rainfall
For An Average of All El Nino Events from 1950 to 2005
Click Here to See Graphs of Average 3 Month Temperature for All El Nino Events from 1950 to 2005
El Nino Rainfall events have varied from 1950 to 2005.
A comparison is made here between the 1982/1983 El Nino Event with the
1991/1992 El Nino Event. In the 1991/1992 El Nino, the area had
very wet weather from December 1991 through June 1992.
Click Here to See Graphs of Rainfall
Variability Between the 1982/1983 El Nino and the 1991/1992 El Nino
The Daily Records Set in September 2006 follows:
Septmeber 3...
DEL RIO LOW OF 80 IN 2006 BROKE THE OLD RECORD LOW OF 79
IN 1989
September 5...
DEL RIO DAILY RAINFALL OF 1.24 INCHES BROKE THE PREVIOUS
SEPTEMBER 5TH RECORD OF 0.99 INCHES ON SEPTEMBER 5, 1978.
September 7...
AUSTIN BERGSTROM LOW OF 59 IN 2006 TIED THE OLD RECORD LOW OF 59
IN 2003
September 8...
AUSTIN BERGSTROM LOW OF 61 IN 2006 BROKE THE OLD RECORD LOW OF 62
IN 2003
September 16...
SAN ANTONIO LOW OF 80 IN 2006 BROKE THE OLD RECORD HIGH MINIMUM
OF 79 IN 2005
AUSTIN MABRY LOW OF 79 IN 2006 TIED THE OLD RECORD HIGH MINIMUM
OF 79 IN 1906
September 22...
AUSTIN BERGSTROM LOW OF 79 IN 2006 BROKE THE OLD RECORD HIGH MINIMUM
OF 77 IN 1980.
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