South Central Texas Fall/Winter Patterns and El Niņo
In September 2006 Oceanic conditions in the tropical Pacific
changed to El Niņo.
See Latest El Niņo/Southern Oscillation (ENSO)
Diagnostic Discussion issued by the
Climate Prediction Center/NCEP.
The climate prediction center is forecasting that the current
El Niņo will continue through the early part of 2007. The
extended outlooks for South Central Texas for November 2006 to
next February 2007 show around a 40 percent likelihood of rainfall
above normal; a 33.33 percent chance of rainfall near normal;
and a 26.67 percent chance of rainfall below normal. The outlook from
February to April and beyond shows Equal Chances of rainfall Above, Near, or
Below Normal. The average temperature outlook is
looking for Equal Chances of above normal, near normal, and below normal average
temperature for November to January, and Near Normal Temperatures for the
period from January to March.
To See All Outlooks for rainfall and temperature from the
Climate Prediction Center
Click Here to See All Outlooks.
Note: All Outlooks reference the 1971 to 2000 Normal's.
When averaging the results of El Niņo Events from 1950 to 2005, rainfall
over South Central Texas was enhanced.
The average 3 month temperature from Late Fall to Early Spring was
slightly below normal.
The graphs at the links listed below show
the average rainfall and temperature during El Niņo
Events for 3 month time periods, from October to December, OND;
November to January, NDJ; December to February, DJF;
January to March, JFM; February to April, FMA; and March to May, MAM.
An additional graph for rainfall is provided for
April to June, AMJ.
Click Here to See Graphs of Rainfall
For An Average of All El Niņo Events from 1950 to 2005
Click Here to See Graphs of Average 3 Month Temperature for All El Niņo Events from 1950 to 2005
Not all El Niņo events are the same.
Rainfall has varied from one El Niņo Event to another from 1950 to 2005
for South Central Texas. There are other
Global Phenomina at work that eventually shape the characteristics of
a fall to winter to early spring pattern, and El Niņo is one factor of
many. In some years El Niņo plays a bigger role, while in others a
smaller role. In some El Niņo years, like 1976-77 and 1977-78, winters
were very cold. In these winters cloudiness lingered, and
cold frontal passages were strong and frequent. In other El Niņo's,
winter was milder, like the stormy and wet period from December 1997 to March 1998.
To illustrate that rainfall during El Niņo has varied from 1950 to 2005,
a comparison is made between the 1982/1983 El Niņo Event with the
1991/1992 El Niņo Event. In the 1991/1992 El Niņo, the area had
very wet weather from December 1991 through June 1992.
Click Here to See Graphs of Rainfall
Variability Between the 1982/1983 El Niņo and the 1991/1992 El Niņo
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